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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast pod. All Right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty twenty five

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Speaker 2: fifty and the kick as block book College Football World stundar.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, he's stumbled and football the lateral turn

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Speaker 2: the corner of the job.

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Speaker 1: Can't you believe?

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Speaker 2: I tap them off the field to night. It's not

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Speaker 2: the sage of the dog in the fight. It's the

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Speaker 2: side of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett and GM. This is

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Speaker 1: the SEC College Football Betting Preview, Part one. I'm stucky

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Speaker 1: in joining me. As always my BBOC calls Colin Wilson

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Speaker 1: sighted the talk save the best for last. Some SEC

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Speaker 1: just means more.

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Speaker 3: Here, it just means more.

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Speaker 2: It just means more. It's also our conference. Our Kentucky

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Speaker 2: Wildcats and our Arkansas Razorbacks are here. We had two

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Speaker 2: new additions to the conference. This is the cream of

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Speaker 2: the crop. This is the bar, this is the measuring stick.

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Speaker 2: So I'm ready to fire because after telling everyone Ohio

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Speaker 2: State's not making the playoff. In the Big Ten preview,

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Speaker 2: We'll see if I got any I gotta fade on

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Speaker 2: a pretty hot team in this one too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So, the way that we're going to structure this

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Speaker 1: at like always, we're going to do the SEC in

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Speaker 1: two parts, and obviously there's no divisions now, but we're

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Speaker 1: going to structure it following the old division format. So

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Speaker 1: this episode will be the old SEC East teams plus Texas,

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Speaker 1: so we'll hit Georgia, Kentucky, Seth kunt of Vandy, Texas,

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Speaker 1: part of Missouri Tennessee Dogs on.

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Speaker 2: The Pools, gets in the water.

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Speaker 1: With Part two will be the old STC West plus

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma for those that have lived under rock, Texas and

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma are now in the SEC. And then at the

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Speaker 1: end of part two we will recap all of our

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Speaker 1: favorite bets in totality. So let's I guess right before

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Speaker 1: we jump in talking about the SEC. You could argue

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Speaker 1: just means more. It's you could argue just to illustrate

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Speaker 1: how loaded the SEC is. You could argue based on

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Speaker 1: where you know your power ratings are where they end

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Speaker 1: up that there are nine top fifteen probably for most people,

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Speaker 1: nine top twenty teams in this conference. It is stacked

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Speaker 1: top to bottom here. It just means point with twelve

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Speaker 1: college football spots. We kind of mentioned this on another

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Speaker 1: earlier podcast. There's maybe a max. What do you I'll

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Speaker 1: throw it to you. There's a max of, you know,

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Speaker 1: crazy world five if there are like five, you know,

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Speaker 1: four ten win SEC teams plus another that wins it

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Speaker 1: when you know it gets the automatic berth. But I

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Speaker 1: think that four is probably very likely. Uh So, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're an SEC team and you get the ten wins,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have a really really good chance of making

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Speaker 1: it to the College twelve. Well, I think I would

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Speaker 1: agree that the top four is pretty close to, like,

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Speaker 1: it's not a locks, we have to see how everything

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Speaker 1: else plays out, but pretty close to just get the

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Speaker 1: ten wins in the SEC and you're in, right, would

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Speaker 1: you agree? I? I, Well, I have five teams projected

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Speaker 1: nine point two or better.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the committee could ever take five teams

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Speaker 2: from the SEC, just based upon the fact of what

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Speaker 2: you're going to get and the complaints you're going to

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Speaker 2: get from the rest the conference. Is the Big ten's

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Speaker 2: going to think that they're going to need four or five.

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Speaker 2: If you get five, we should get five. If you know,

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Speaker 2: the Big twelve is getting you know, two or three

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Speaker 2: teams less, there's gonna be a lot of complaint there

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Speaker 2: acc same situation, and I think one of the teams

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Speaker 2: at the top is going to have a subpar season

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Speaker 2: and they're going to miss the playoff. And my question

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Speaker 2: is is that a ten win team like you said,

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Speaker 2: stuck or is that a nine win team?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I.

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Speaker 2: Am still this is one of those conferences where I

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Speaker 2: see a lot of teams finish in seven and one,

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Speaker 2: and I mean, when you got three of those here

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Speaker 2: we go, how are you going to determine those tie breakers?

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Speaker 2: But no, I do have five teams over nine point two,

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Speaker 2: so they'll have candidates. The question is who's going to

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Speaker 2: get left out?

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Speaker 1: Yeah. From a betting perspective, Georgia heavy favorite to make it.

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Speaker 1: Texas also a decent sized favorite, Alabama around even money.

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss is a small favorite. So those are the

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Speaker 1: market is saying Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss. And then

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Speaker 1: you have LSU small dog to make it, Missouri closer

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Speaker 1: to two to one to make it than O home

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Speaker 1: of five to one, think Texas, A and M closer

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Speaker 1: to plus two fifty. And then you have your longer

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Speaker 1: shots let's just dive right in. Let's start with Georgia

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Speaker 1: be Bulldogs minus six hundred to make the College Football Playoff,

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Speaker 1: their win total sitting at ten and a half juice

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Speaker 1: the bit to the over. This team has a lot

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Speaker 1: of continuity from a coaching and player perspective. Top thirty

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Speaker 1: in returning production, led by quarterback Carson Beck. It's an

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Speaker 1: absolutely loaded team, the number one recruiting class again. Last year,

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Speaker 1: you could argue that they were the best team in

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Speaker 1: the country, at least from a powerty perspective. They were

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Speaker 1: for me. Last year. They beat five ranked teams by

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Speaker 1: an average of thirty four points per game, and then

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Speaker 1: they lost to Bama by three. Obviously, the Florida State

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Speaker 1: win against a lot of their backups and flights out

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Speaker 1: a bit, but they dominated all of the ranked teams

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Speaker 1: as they've played outside of that Alabama game, winning all

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Speaker 1: five by double digits. This schedule isn't easy. It's a

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Speaker 1: tie that is one of the ten hardest in the country.

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Speaker 1: I have them favored in every game, but three are

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Speaker 1: under a touchdown at Texas, at Alabama, at Ole Miss.

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Speaker 1: You'll notice there is are their three toughest games, all

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Speaker 1: away from home. They also start with Clemson in Atlanta,

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Speaker 1: so you know there are four toughest opponents won't be

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Speaker 1: played in their home stadium. What are your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: the Bulldogs? Obviously just loaded both sides of the ball,

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Speaker 1: but what are your overaction thoughts here? The great Nick

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Speaker 1: Sabis coach, We appreciate you so much for joining us here.

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Speaker 1: All right, thank you.

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Speaker 2: You want me to say, go Dogs? Well, five to

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Speaker 2: one was the number I grabbed last January when I

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Speaker 2: saw it posted. I know, and to quote my friend

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Speaker 2: Stucky year of the Chalk, five to one I thought

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Speaker 2: was way too long. It's three to one right now,

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Speaker 2: and I have to say, I think there's a ton

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Speaker 2: of value on it now when you go to TARP,

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Speaker 2: when you check the transfer activity, when you check their

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Speaker 2: returning production, eighty five percent returns at least on both

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Speaker 2: sides of the ball, when you check counting stats, and

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Speaker 2: no matter what category, on both sides of the ball.

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Speaker 2: That is an unbelievable thing for a team that is

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Speaker 2: consistently just completely rated by the NFL, especially on defense.

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Speaker 2: Every year George is going to return nine of their

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Speaker 2: top thirteen tacklers. And I think the one thing that

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Speaker 2: Kirby was questioned about at SEC media Day, was who's

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Speaker 2: going to play Nickel. He hasn't really identified who's playing nickel.

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Speaker 2: He's mentioned that it is the most critical position in

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Speaker 2: his four to two to five defense of Glenn Schumann.

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Speaker 2: Co DC now comes in Trevares Robinson. He was he

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Speaker 2: was Bama's corners coach. Did an amazing job. Terry and Arnold,

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Speaker 2: what the job that some of those corners have done

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Speaker 2: there and fantastic, So no drop off on this defense.

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Speaker 2: Nine of your top thirteen are back. Then you go

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Speaker 2: to the offense and you think, well, brock Bauers isn't there,

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Speaker 2: and man, has he been just the glue, the lifeblood.

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Speaker 2: Lad mcconkee has been the hot go to wide receiver

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Speaker 2: for multiple quarterbacks during his time. But then you look

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Speaker 2: at the weapons that they got that goes in and

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Speaker 2: snags Trevor et In from Florida, and then they went

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Speaker 2: to Stanton huge four point one yards after contact on

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty rushing attempts. He's electric. Then you

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Speaker 2: went and got the guy that, in my opinion, if

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Speaker 2: you're going to go grab Georgia for the national title,

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Speaker 2: it's because of this edition. It's Benjamin Erosec of Stanford.

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Speaker 2: If you watch any Stanford games, which I did a

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Speaker 2: lot with the under last year, he lines up everywhere, slot,

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Speaker 2: h back, running back, wide out, He's everywhere. And once

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Speaker 2: you lost in brock Bauers, you're going to get the

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Speaker 2: exact same role here for Ben you'asec. As you know,

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Speaker 2: Georgia started practice today. He's healthy, he's playing. These weapons

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Speaker 2: to me are more important, bigger than I would say

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Speaker 2: Rob Rot Thomas, who's in some legal troubles right now.

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Speaker 2: And then when you talk about Rob Rod Thomas getting

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Speaker 2: in legal troubles, oh yeah, cold by Young Joins from Miami.

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Speaker 2: I mean if it is absolutely one a of the

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Speaker 2: nastiest rosters, especially from an experience perspective. It's not like

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Speaker 2: I'm just talking about Oscar delp See. And so when

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Speaker 2: you talk about this schedule and what we're going to

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Speaker 2: do with this future, Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss are

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Speaker 2: the only games on the schedule they could potentially lose.

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Speaker 2: Has Ole Miss really closed a thirty five point gap,

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Speaker 2: We'll see has at Texas. We're going to talk about

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Speaker 2: them go historically, Look what they do after red River? Well,

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Speaker 2: where does Georgia play him after Red River Alabama. I'll

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Speaker 2: say it. I think there is a key I think

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Speaker 2: there's a key issue against Alabama. But if you can

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Speaker 2: pull one of those three, you're sitting at ten and two.

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Speaker 2: You're a playoff team. I don't want to worry about

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Speaker 2: the SEC Championship because I think multiple teams can finish

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Speaker 2: at seven and one. I don't want to worry about

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Speaker 2: are you going to make a playoff with this number

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Speaker 2: that absolutely out of control. I think they get a

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Speaker 2: buye into the quarters, and if they do host a

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Speaker 2: home game, good luck. So I think Georgia for the

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Speaker 2: national Championship. Not because it's the year of the chalk.

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Speaker 2: There is no roster complete from top to bottom, two

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Speaker 2: deep depth chart, which you have to have every year

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Speaker 2: to win the Cultural Playoff because you're gonna have to

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Speaker 2: play a minimum of three rounds. You're gonna have to

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Speaker 2: have health, You're gonna have to have depth. They got it. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I look that.

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Speaker 1: One of the headlines of who they lost in the

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Speaker 1: off season is we mentioned at McConkey and that was

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Speaker 1: gonna remember they were hurt though last year, so they

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Speaker 1: already they played without those two guys and so they're

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Speaker 1: fine at the skill positions. I do want to watch.

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Speaker 1: They lost two really good offensive linemen, and you have

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Speaker 1: trust coming back. So the loss of Havenm's I don't

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Speaker 1: think is dad. I don't think there's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: big drop off there the center position at losing Van

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Speaker 1: Prin I just want to watch how the interior offensive

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Speaker 1: line comes together, most likely Wilson there. Defensive back. You

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Speaker 1: do lose three in the first ninety picks, but there's

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Speaker 1: just there's talent everywhere if this defense wants to go,

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Speaker 1: because last year the defense wasn't as good as it

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Speaker 1: was two years ago. Three years ago, we're still talking

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Speaker 1: about one of, if not the best defense in college football,

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Speaker 1: but it didn't have that you know, that next elite step. Right,

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Speaker 1: lose Dumus Johnson at linebacker, but you have like five

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Speaker 1: star freaks waiting in the wings, and can does a

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Speaker 1: guy like Michael Williams just does he take a big

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Speaker 1: step and become that just generational pass rusher. So there's

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Speaker 1: some spots on the defense I don't watch just to see,

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Speaker 1: like can Georgia get back to that you know, super

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Speaker 1: duper elite level. They're obviously going to be one of,

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Speaker 1: if not the best defenses regardless. But those are some

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Speaker 1: of the things that I'm watching. But you know, really

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Speaker 1: nit nitpicking here with Georgia, who I have power rated

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Speaker 1: number one in all of collegeurable heading into the season,

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Speaker 1: I assume you're the same same yeah, plus went eighty

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Speaker 1: five is to win the SEC. All right. Let's move

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Speaker 1: on to a team in my backyard, the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: they made me sweat for a push last year. For

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Speaker 1: my win total this year over six and a half,

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Speaker 1: just a bit to the over another team that has

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Speaker 1: a lot of returning production, specifically on defense. I think

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Speaker 1: the front seven of that defense is the strength, and

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Speaker 1: you could say also the big blue wall is it

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Speaker 1: potentially back along the offensive line a couple of years

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Speaker 1: where they were down a bit, but they're going to

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Speaker 1: return a ton and they add a uh and that's

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Speaker 1: another SEC transfer to that group, so they could be

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Speaker 1: pretty strong in the trenches. There is a new quarterback

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Speaker 1: with Devin Leary out who dealt with some inconsistent play

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Speaker 1: and some injury issues last year. It's now going to

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Speaker 1: be a former five star, Brock Vanderger from Georgia who

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Speaker 1: couldn't win the starting job there, transferred to Lexington. He

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Speaker 1: now takes over new offensive coordinator, Bush Hampden comes in

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Speaker 1: from Boise State. Still should be a pro style at

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Speaker 1: esque offense, but there will be some changes, just some

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Speaker 1: tweaks to what that looks like the offensive line that

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Speaker 1: it's like Georgia. I want to see just can that

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Speaker 1: offensive line take the next step back to where we

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Speaker 1: saw Kentucky three four years ago, like the true big

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Speaker 1: blue wall. It's not going to hold them back, but

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Speaker 1: it could prevent them from winning seven or eight games

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Speaker 1: instead of five or six. I think that might end

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Speaker 1: up determining their win totals. How good is this offensive line?

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Speaker 1: And then obviously how good is Vandergrift. You do lose

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Speaker 1: Ray Davis at running back who left the NFL. You're

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Speaker 1: bringing Chip train them from Ohio State. I think there's

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Speaker 1: a slight drop off there. You bring your two top

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Speaker 1: receivers back, bringing Macklin from North Texas, a thousand yard receiver.

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Speaker 1: The biggest question on the team to me, besides quarterback,

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Speaker 1: just because the uncertainty is the defensive backfield. This is

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Speaker 1: a team that was bottom ten nationally and complete a

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Speaker 1: percentage passing success rate allowed and it's experience day. But

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Speaker 1: the secondary just has questions to me, especially cornerback number two,

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Speaker 1: because the defensive backfield struggl last year and you lose

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Speaker 1: a cornerback to the NFL. From a scheduling perspective, with

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Speaker 1: the new SEC schedule, you flipped Arkansas from last year.

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Speaker 1: So comparing last year schedule, this year, you replaced Arkansas, Missouri,

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Speaker 1: and Mississippi State with Auburn, Texas, and Ole Miss. So

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Speaker 1: definitely got a little bit more difficult the biggest jumps there.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Texas obviously better than Missouri, but you were

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Speaker 1: replacing miss State with Old miss And because of those

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Speaker 1: questions within the secondary, heavy zone based defense, you're facing yours, Beck, Nico,

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Speaker 1: and Dart four of the names that you'll see at

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Speaker 1: the top of the Heisman list. So that defense in

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Speaker 1: the secondary is definitely going to get tested in those

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Speaker 1: four games where they'll be sizeable underdogs one hundred to

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Speaker 1: one to win the SEC. Mentioned Dumas, Johnson and linebacker

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Speaker 1: big Get for Kentucky. He comes in from Georgia. I

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Speaker 1: think when you're handicapping this team, like there's going to

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Speaker 1: be some teams on this schedule because I you know,

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Speaker 1: I project personally I'm right around six two six three,

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Speaker 1: So I showed a tiny bit of value on the

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Speaker 1: under I think that, you know, if they don't really

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Speaker 1: pull off an upset, a big upset, I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to need to beat South Carolina, Auburn, and Louisville

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Speaker 1: to get to seven wins. I think that's basically what

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Speaker 1: their win total comes down to. Good news on both

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Speaker 1: on if you were look at those three games, olim

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Speaker 1: are at home and we don't really know how effective

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Speaker 1: South Carolina and Auburn will be throwing the ball, and

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Speaker 1: there's not going to be a lot of teams that

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Speaker 1: can just line up and run on Kentucky. Their run

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Speaker 1: defense should be extremely proficient once again this year. So

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Speaker 1: that's something to keep in mind when kind of handicapped

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Speaker 1: in Kentucky. What are your thoughts? And then at Florida too,

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Speaker 1: they'll they'll be dogs there, Gator big time revenge from

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Speaker 1: last year. What are your thoughts on Kentucky headed into

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Speaker 1: this year?

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Speaker 2: Well, that was I mean, right down to almost the

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Speaker 2: projected wintill you have is about almost exactly what I

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Speaker 2: have on just about everything. But let's talk about Bush

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Speaker 2: Hampden on offense. He comes in as offensive coordinator and

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Speaker 2: you say, well, is it Liam Cohen's offense. Still, it's

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Speaker 2: the same exact thing Stoops wanted this offense. He knows

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Speaker 2: Hampden could run it. Hampden's a perfect match for this

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Speaker 2: offense and what he does. But the Broncos a Boise

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Speaker 2: State where Hampden came from. The Broncos did have an

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Speaker 2: uptempo gear that was used in certain spots. I know

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Speaker 2: Stoops has spoke about how he wants an up tempo gear,

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Speaker 2: but now he's got an offensive coordinator that did it.

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Speaker 2: Boise Still was eighty ninth fastest in the country. They

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Speaker 2: were They're not speed demons, but they did have that

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Speaker 2: gear where they can go up tempo. So expect to

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Speaker 2: see that out of Kentucky, which will be new broughd Vandergriff.

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Speaker 2: I mean twenty one passes since the twenty twenty one season, tough.

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Speaker 2: I mean, no one's going to sit around and say

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Speaker 2: that they know what this kid's going to produce for Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: But Hampden's going to call on Vandergriff to run. Taylan

312
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Speaker 2: Green had more than three hundred and sixty yards on

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Speaker 2: designed runs last year. So and vander Griffs got it

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Speaker 2: in his profile and his recruiting profile that he can't

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Speaker 2: take off out of the pocket and do some things.

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Speaker 2: I agree with you on chip trying them from Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: He's just got very tepid numbers and break away in elusiveness,

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Speaker 2: his yards after contact, his misstackles created, It's just they're

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Speaker 2: not there. And plus, what do you have double digit

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Speaker 2: rushing attempts just once last year on the schedule. I

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Speaker 2: understand Ohio States loaded, but he never got to like

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Speaker 2: ten or more carries. I can't he be a workhorse?

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Speaker 1: Is the question?

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Speaker 2: When you go to the other side this defense, I

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Speaker 2: think it's the nastiest and potentially best front seven and

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Speaker 2: all of the sec they finished with the top twenty

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Speaker 2: five stuff rate. They have nose tackle deon walker back.

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Speaker 2: You know, do you know how hard it is to

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Speaker 2: create a pressure from nose? It's hard. He had fifty

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Speaker 2: one pressures. He grades out as the best run defender

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Speaker 2: on this defense. It's he's everything. He does them both

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Speaker 2: and everybody on the line does, but he's absolutely the best.

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Speaker 2: And then I know the secondary is the place to

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Speaker 2: pick on Tucky, but corner Max Harrison, he was second

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Speaker 2: team All SEC had nine passes defense I think, and

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Speaker 2: even split from like five I in T's and four

337
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Speaker 2: PBUs So Brad White, you know, I think the problem

338
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Speaker 2: on this defense is and I couldn't figure it out,

339
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,679
Speaker 2: and I couldn't find anything in the notes. This defense

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Speaker 2: went from a top twenty five third down defense to

341
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Speaker 2: one hundred. They're outside the top one hundred last year.

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Speaker 2: What was the reasoning for such poor work on third

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Speaker 2: down passing downs? So that has to get resolved. The

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00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 2: secondary can be an issue. Now you already read.

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Speaker 1: Free completions all over the place all year long.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Now they have a brutal road schedule. Brutal SEC

347
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Speaker 2: road schedule Texas, Tennessee, ol Miss not good, right, There's

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Speaker 2: only so many wins you can get here. I mean

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Speaker 2: even Kroger Field. You're going to see Georgia, Louisville. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this is not an easy schedule whatsoever. They will be

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Speaker 2: comfortably favored in four games, but they're going to be

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Speaker 2: double digit dogs at Georgia and Texas. No chance to

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Speaker 2: win those. Well, you mentioned the coin flips, coin flips

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Speaker 2: South Carolina Auburn Louisville. Now, we haven't talked by South

355
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 2: Carolina yet. I don't expect any passing game out of

356
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Speaker 2: that offense. They don't even have a wide receiver from

357
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 2: last year, and the Sellers is a they say dual threat,

358
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,119
Speaker 2: but it's generally mostly on the ground. Auburn, on the

359
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:14,399
Speaker 2: other hand, I would potentially worry about Peyton Thorne.

360
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Speaker 1: I've definitely better this year.

361
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, And Louisville. You can't convince me that Tyler

362
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 2: Schuk is going to be healthy by the time Game

363
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 2: twelve comes around. My projection is five point nine to

364
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Speaker 2: nine on this team, Kentucky has to sweep that trio

365
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 2: of coin flips. So I'm under six and a half.

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Speaker 2: I don't enjoy it. I like this team this year.

367
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,919
Speaker 2: I love the defense, got to have improved third downs,

368
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 2: complete mystery at the quarterback position. I'm going under six

369
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 2: and a half. But you know what, just like I

370
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,680
Speaker 2: do every year where the Kentucky win total, I'm willing

371
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Speaker 2: to play the other side in Game twelve against Louisville.

372
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Speaker 2: So I do like the under, though I would.

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Speaker 1: Love for someone in the market with influence that loves

374
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 1: Kentucky about the over, and because I'm very willing to

375
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:59,159
Speaker 1: pay a steep juice on under seven ah, which I

376
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 1: think is they're seal. But I agree with you on

377
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 1: the under. I think it's under or nothing on the Cats.

378
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 1: All right, that's had a bit more south and talk

379
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 1: some Florida Gators, who have now had three straight losing

380
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 1: seasons for the first time since the nineteen forties. Market

381
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 1: says it'll be a fourth win total four and a half,

382
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: heavily juiced to the over. It's a bizarre thing to

383
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 1: see a program like Florida with a win total of

384
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 1: four and a half. For a team that has talent

385
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 1: Graham Mart's coming back at quarterback. You do lose Ricky

386
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 1: Piersoll and the aforementioned BTN at running back, but I

387
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 1: like their talent at wide receiver especially. I have to

388
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 1: bringing Badger in old Merchans, old running mate DK, really

389
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: good tight end Zippers, healthy boarding Ham. The big question

390
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,400
Speaker 1: on offense is the offensive line major issues last year.

391
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 1: Sacks dropped from they went from fifteenth in the country

392
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 1: to one hundred and fifteenth. Yards per carry dropped from

393
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:12,239
Speaker 1: five point eight to four point one. You're moving some

394
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 1: guys around. There's some transfers at tackle, including one from

395
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 1: Arkansas who will probably get some run. You're probably kicking

396
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 1: Georgi into guard from tackle. Your center spot is solid,

397
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 1: but there's a lot of moving pieces here, some new faces.

398
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 1: Can they come together. The depth is also especially at guard,

399
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: is pretty worrying. If there's some injuries, the defense is

400
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 1: going to be under the tutelage of the same coordinator.

401
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 1: But they bring in a new CODC and then staff

402
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 1: changes throughout. After a really poor season last year, so

403
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 1: the big like, when I look at what went wrong

404
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 1: last year with this team, it was the offensive line.

405
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:02,120
Speaker 1: No explosive passing, and they gave up way too many

406
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 1: explosive plays. So they had an explosive play problem both

407
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 1: sides of the ball. So if the offensive line doesn't

408
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 1: work out, by the way, which is just so critical

409
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: for me, it's something that I'm moditoring so closely. Say,

410
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 1: this offensive line doesn't work out with Florida, good luck

411
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: against Miami, Texas A and m Tennessee. We just talked

412
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 1: about UK's front. Georgia, Texas, Florida State, Ole Miss. I

413
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 1: think these teams have pretty good defensive lines. So of

414
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 1: your offensive line isn't working, this season's done. And by

415
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: the way, did you just hear me mention those teams.

416
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 1: That's because this is one of, if not the most

417
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,719
Speaker 1: difficult schedule in college football history. I have them dogs

418
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: in eight games, double digit dogs, and three they have

419
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: won free win, their free win. And your boy, Billy

420
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: scared money, don't make money, you know, good old Billy.

421
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 1: He better win this game or he's gone. After too

422
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 1: is at home againt Stanford. They faced six of the

423
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 1: top seven in the SEC. Plus there are three at

424
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 1: three non conference games against Florida rivals Miami, Florida State,

425
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 1: and you see ye uc yep is supposed to be

426
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 1: like another give me game up with U. Seeah, So

427
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: this schedule by far the hardest schedule in the country.

428
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: Do you want to hear the final five? So you

429
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: play Kentucky at home? Better win that game on the schedule,

430
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 1: because then you finished Georgia at Texas lsu Ole, Miss

431
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 1: at Florida State. Six teams on this schedule that finished

432
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: in the AP top seventeen, eleven Power four teams plus Sanford.

433
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 1: It's also some things that Napier has to clean up. Penalties,

434
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 1: short yardage, special teams all really bad.

435
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 2: One hundred and thirteenth and tackling.

436
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: Tackling seletic cleanup. There is only four true road games.

437
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 1: Napier has been much better at home. And speaking of

438
00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 1: your boy, Napier, scare money don't make money if money

439
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: don't have many money. You know, there's he's on the

440
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: naziat So when will you know if they struggle? Is

441
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 1: he gone? Mid season? Yeah? This team, this team could

442
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 1: be lost and the locker room could be lost, and

443
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:17,360
Speaker 1: we don't like there's a lot of questions about where

444
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: this could go because it could go south quick with

445
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 1: this schedule. You know, one of your easiest games at

446
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 1: Mississippi or Mississippi State. You're but you're on the road

447
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 1: there after hosting Texas A and m the Miami game

448
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,399
Speaker 1: to start the season. Small home dolls obviously gonna be

449
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: a big swing, especially for the for the win total,

450
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 1: I project five point one five, so like I mathematically

451
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 1: small into the over numerically, but with this schedule, the

452
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: questions on the offensive line as of right now, uh no,

453
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 1: thanks uh not investing in the in fart over. What

454
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: are your thoughts on the Gators?

455
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 2: It's sad that I like this team so much, starting

456
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 2: with Graham Mertz. He's coming back for his fifth season.

457
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 2: He had a twenty to three ratio of TD to

458
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 2: I and T. But man, go look at his big

459
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 2: time throws and turnover worthy plays. He had double big

460
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 2: time throws and he did turnover worthy plays. And I

461
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 2: remember a time at Wisconsin when the kid couldn't throw

462
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: in a pocket with pressure. Well, pressure on Mertz means nothing.

463
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: Now he generated the same adjusted completion percentage last year

464
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 2: in the pocket and pressured downs. He had fifteen big

465
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 2: time throws to just two turnover worthy plays on passes

466
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 2: that exceeded ten yards. And he's going to need protection.

467
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 2: They weren't bad in protecting last year, weren't great. But

468
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 2: at the same time, if he gets hurt, if there's

469
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 2: any injury here, just it is done. Everything is done right.

470
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: I mean, he is that integral to this, especially when

471
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,719
Speaker 2: you lose a Trevor Etn to Georgia, so three starters

472
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 2: are back. You're right, Damian George did not grade very

473
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 2: well at Alabama. He was left tackle, right tackle. Switch.

474
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 2: They're going to kick him into guard. Brandonkridshaw. Dixon has

475
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: twenty four hundred snap twenty four hundred snaps of experience

476
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 2: in four years from San Diego State, big body that

477
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 2: they were able to get in there. So they have

478
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 2: enough size and they have experience, but they got to

479
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,239
Speaker 2: get the rotation down on the offensive because I think

480
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 2: protection of Graham Mertz is the most important piece of

481
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 2: this Florida offenses here. Now on defense it's a big.

482
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: Jump too, So I want to see it with like

483
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: you're going from San Diego State to the hardest schedule

484
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 1: of defensive lines in the country, So that's going to

485
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: be an important piece to watch.

486
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 2: The defense just did not get solved with this Austin

487
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 2: Armstrong hire out of what Southern miss last year. I mean,

488
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 2: he was the hot coordinator that came in and they

489
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 2: still could not tackle well. They finished one hundred and

490
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,479
Speaker 2: twenty fourth in big play percentage allowing big plays. A

491
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,679
Speaker 2: lot of problems here, and what did we go do

492
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 2: this offseason. We went and hired Ron Roberts to be

493
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: co DC. Roberts has been fired twice in the last

494
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 2: two years. He's been fired from Auburn, He's been fired

495
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 2: from Baylor, and he said, well, what's the connection here. Well,

496
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 2: Ron Roberts was on the coach's staff at Louisiana in

497
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 2: twenty eight team in twenty nineteen, so there's a connection there,

498
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 2: there's a familiarity there, But Roberts has not produced anything

499
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 2: on the field in his last two stops. So the

500
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 2: defensive interior Caleb Banks, he listed sixty six, he grades

501
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 2: as their best run stopper on the team, and safety

502
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 2: Jordan Casteele returns after leading the team to tackle. So

503
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 2: there's some goodness on the defense, but they have got

504
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 2: to stop. They're better against a run, their fourteenth in

505
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 2: defensive rushing success rate, outside the top one hundred against

506
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 2: the pass. It's got to be fixed. Their non conference

507
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 2: games you mentioned against the State of Florida. That's a

508
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 2: much bigger game to Central Florida than it is to

509
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: the Gators.

510
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:33,639
Speaker 1: And he's talking about that game.

511
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 2: Oh and everybody's talking about this November schedule. And the

512
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 2: one thing that stuck out to me right away is

513
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 2: not the list of these last five games that they're

514
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: playing against, but the fact that Georgia, Texas, and Ole

515
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: Miss all come off of Black Week. They get two

516
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 2: weeks to get fresh after an SEC schedule, and then

517
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 2: head into play. I mean, I feel this is just

518
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 2: brutal it's not even fair. So you know Florida's going

519
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 2: to be small favorites to UCF and Kentucky. That's it.

520
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 2: Those aren't guaranteed winning winnable games. I'd argue that both

521
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 2: of those teams are good enough to easily beat Florida.

522
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: And you know I want plus three in the opener

523
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: against Miami. I think that they're in a good shot

524
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 2: very first game of season, because I know Graham Bertha

525
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: is going to be healthy. I like him against the Hurricanes.

526
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 1: But I avars Billy. Just live bet who's down in

527
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: the start of the fourth quarter because the other coaches.

528
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 1: Some one of these coaches messed that game up. That's

529
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: just how that game mess to go.

530
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 2: Boy, I can't believe I'm going to be back in

531
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 2: our Florida boy, my Florida boy. Here, goodness, gracious, Billy Napier.

532
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go under four and a half. I

533
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 2: do project this over. I do project this four point

534
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 2: eighty seven. But the problem is the juice on the

535
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 2: four and a half, which this was five and a half,

536
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 2: and it's been hit hard by everybody, and I'm just

537
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: saying right now that the juice doesn't match what the

538
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 2: number is. If I make it four point nine, it's

539
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 2: under four and a half plus one thirty. There's a

540
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 2: little bit of value going on there, So I would

541
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 2: take that, But I would compliment an under with a

542
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 2: money line bet against Miami. In game one. They lose

543
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 2: that game, your win total is probably solid. It's it's

544
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 2: probably decided. They win that game. They can still lose

545
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 2: this win total, but you cashed out the exact same

546
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 2: bet size in the very first game. So that's how

547
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 2: I'm playing the Gators this year. And you know what

548
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 2: old Sarkesian was at media day saying, I'm gonna I'm

549
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 2: going to do my best knick save. And now that

550
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 2: he's retired and I'm going to start hiring guys that

551
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 2: have had troubles as head coaches in certain places. Well

552
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 2: you can look right here, because I'll say his name,

553
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: Billy Napier might be on Texas's staff by the time

554
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 2: the playoff rolls around. If this thing works out the

555
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: way the schedule says, God makes a mistake, you want

556
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 2: to condemn them.

557
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 1: I'm curious Roberts. You mentioned Roberts's new codyc does have

558
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 1: a previous relationship with Armstrong as well. I like some

559
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: of the pieces on the defensive line, even with the

560
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: loss of one of your defensive ends interconference. My questions

561
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: are linebacker and corner. Those would be my two biggest

562
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: question marks on the defense. We'll see if they can

563
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: force more turnovers, limity, explosive, and this We'll see what

564
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 1: some of those staff changes can do, because they've definitely

565
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 1: had issues last year.

566
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 3: This podcast is presented by BETMGM. Used bonus code action

567
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 3: when signing up to get up to fifteen hundred dollars

568
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 3: back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win.

569
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 3: For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

570
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 3: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

571
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 3: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one

572
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 3: plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

573
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the Missouri Tigers, who

574
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 1: are a bit over twenty to one to win the

575
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 1: SEC Sitting around a little more than two to one,

576
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: think plus one eighty ish to make the College Football

577
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: Playoff win total nine and a half heavily juiced to

578
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 1: the under They are top twenty in returning production. But

579
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: it's a tale of two stories. The offense loaded brings

580
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: back almost everybody. The wide receiver room is elite, led

581
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: by Luther Burden, the Oise Cooper both tight ends. You

582
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 1: do lose your All American running back and Schrader, but

583
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 1: you add two from the Sun Belt in Noel from

584
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: app State and Carol from Georgia State. Brady Cook is

585
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: back at quarterback. The offensive line, the biggest questions would

586
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: have been losing Foster to the NFL, a left tackle

587
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: and your left guard stalwarts Delgado, but you add Bryant

588
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: at left tackle from SMU, who I like, in Green

589
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 1: from Oklahoma at left guard, so it looks like you

590
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: kind of can just slot them in and there won't

591
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 1: be much of a drop off. Tolson and Johnson are

592
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 1: very solid already in the interior, so the offense should

593
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 1: be really good once again, assuming Brady Cook stays healthy,

594
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: because if he goes down, it's Drew Pine. Saw Drew Pine.

595
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: Last year we get get in the game of Arizona State,

596
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 1: and at the end of this season is post If

597
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 1: he gets hurt, the biggest questions are all going to

598
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 1: come on defense, where they lost a lot, and this

599
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 1: is a defense they lost their best linebacker, both starting linebackers.

600
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: The good thing is double some injuries there, so they

601
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: have some other guys that got experience. They lose their

602
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: top three defensive backs all to the NFL, three of

603
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 1: their four starting defensive linemen, including their best defensive end,

604
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 1: and you have a new defensive coordinator, Corey Bettuna comes

605
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 1: in from South Alabama, apparently staying with the three three

606
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 1: five base even though he's a four to two five guy.

607
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 1: The biggest questions are you know you have a along

608
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: the defensive line, You know you lose your best there.

609
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 1: They have the best of defensive line prospect in the country.

610
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 1: I'm curious to see if he can step up and

611
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 1: make an impact this year. But edge and corner or

612
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 1: major question marks. I think there's a small drop off

613
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 1: at linebacker as well. So I have some major questions

614
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 1: about this defense, which I take I think takes an

615
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 1: enormous step back after losing five to the NFL. It

616
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 1: is an easy schedule, easy non con I mean, we

617
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: just talked about some hard schedules. Here's Missouri's non con

618
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:35,840
Speaker 1: Murray State, Buffalo BC at home, and then at UMass.

619
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: What a weird game they go to UMass. Here's a chance,

620
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 1: be a man my hand on a stand. I don't

621
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: want a man and man. And by the way, after

622
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 1: those three, after Murray Buffalo, Boston College, they have Vanderbilt

623
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,479
Speaker 1: at home, who's on a back to back road yep.

624
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 1: And then you're at Texas A and M before going

625
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 1: to UMass. So if you win that test as an

626
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: AM game, you'll there'll be dogs there, but you're you're

627
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 1: talking about six and out start. Yeah, and uh so

628
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 1: it's a very like a national average schedule. And you

629
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 1: also have a buye before that Texas A and M game,

630
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 1: which helps, so the their buys are even well timed.

631
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 1: It's the it's the easiest SEC schedule with a joke,

632
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: non con You avoid Georgia, Texas, Ole, Miss, and LSU.

633
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 1: You also face six new coaches. Uh. This is a

634
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 1: team though that I want to fade coming into the

635
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 1: year they were I mean, look last year they went

636
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 1: ten and to them then won their bowl game. But

637
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: I mean look they beat South Dakota, Andy, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas.

638
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: But there are other four wins, they beat Middle Tennessee

639
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 1: by four. They beat Kansas State by three. By the way,

640
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 1: their kicker, my guy Mevus, is no longer there, so

641
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: that's certainly worth mentioning. They beat Memphis by one possession,

642
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 1: beat Florida by one possession. They were also losing the

643
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 1: fourth at UK and they'd beat a lot of state

644
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 1: in the bowl game, but they were playing with some

645
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 1: backups and didn't even have a quarterback. Now, in fairness,

646
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 1: they did lead late versus LSU, and that because they

647
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 1: went four to zer one percent games. There was like

648
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 1: a pick six late that made that LCU game not

649
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: of one position. And they played Georgia pretty even and

650
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: they dominated Memphis, so there's some noise there, but they

651
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 1: were definitely lucky in close games. They also had a

652
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: plus ten turnover margin. And then something that goes a

653
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: little under the radar is Leary was extremely hurt when

654
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 1: they played Mertz, got hurt when they played Florida. Your

655
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 1: boy kJ he got hurt in the first quarter for Arkansas.

656
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 1: And then I just mentioned Ohio State. So they played

657
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 1: a lot they benefited from some backup quarterback play. I

658
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 1: don't think this team is getting the ten wins, they'll

659
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 1: I have them favored in ten eight potential by double digits,

660
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,839
Speaker 1: but I don't think they're getting there, and it's because

661
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 1: of the defense. And even if everyone in the offense

662
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: stays healthy, I think the defense takes a big step back.

663
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on the Tigers.

664
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 2: I have no love for this defense, but I do

665
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 2: love Corey Batun coming in as defensive coordinator right underneath

666
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 2: Knewell Max some of the best defenses and G five

667
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,399
Speaker 2: has put out. Just ask Oklahoma State and Ollie Gordon

668
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 2: last year. So you know, from a defensive perspective, they're

669
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred allowing explosives. They're outside the

670
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,359
Speaker 2: top one hundred finishing drives. I still don't know how

671
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 2: Blake Baker got the job at LSU, but you know

672
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 2: Batun calls a lot of Cover three and he is

673
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 2: aggressive on blitz thirty four percent last year for the

674
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 2: Jaguars down in the Sun Belt, secondary was a complete reset.

675
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 2: I just I don't think that they can improve on defense,

676
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 2: especially in the back half, than what they were in

677
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,720
Speaker 2: the front. I mean, they were eleventh in defensive havoc.

678
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 2: They were eighteenth against the run as far as efficiency

679
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 2: is concerned, they were top twenty five in defensive line yards.

680
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 2: Can they keep that up? Maybe, but it is the

681
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 2: only thing on defense it's worth talking about. But the offense,

682
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 2: you know, they still have a ton of weapons. I

683
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,799
Speaker 2: mean Luther Burden the big thing last year, a year ago,

684
00:37:57,840 --> 00:37:59,439
Speaker 2: we were talking about how he was moving from white

685
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 2: out down to the slot well twelve hundred receiving yards

686
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,879
Speaker 2: later in an ultra explosive three point three yards per

687
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 2: route run. This is the blessed. This is the best

688
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 2: slot wide receiver in the nation. Marcus Carroll Georgia State

689
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 2: and Aint Noel of app State, they should take over

690
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,399
Speaker 2: for Cody Schrader. I do worry about how much drink

691
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 2: talked about at SEC media days is about how much

692
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,439
Speaker 2: of a leader Cody Schrader was in the clubhouse, locker room,

693
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 2: practice field, dinner, organize events off calf campus. It was

694
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 2: all Cody Schrader. So I do worry about that. I mean,

695
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:30,479
Speaker 2: they bring in the numbers, they bring in the talent

696
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 2: in the backfield, but that is a loss. I just

697
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 2: can't The bet on this team that I made is

698
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 2: Missouri five to one to make the SEC Championship. Game.

699
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 2: My win to Launam is nine point four. Let's go

700
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,839
Speaker 2: through the schedule, the SEC schedule. You're right, it all

701
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 2: lines up perfectly. They get two week break before they

702
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 2: go down to Texas A and M. Right, and then

703
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 2: they get you masked the following week. It's kind of

704
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 2: a vibe. I'm not sure if you and I are

705
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 2: going to play first half U Mass that ought'd be funny.

706
00:38:56,280 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 2: I don't want no man and now. And then later

707
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 2: on they do play Alabama, but then they get two

708
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 2: week break before they host Oklahoma. I mean, it is

709
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 2: such a great schedule, and I'm not worried about the

710
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 2: last three teams that they're going to go up and

711
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 2: play against. So how many losses in the SEC are

712
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 2: we looking at? I only see two. I see Alabama,

713
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 2: and then there's a coin flip where you get two

714
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 2: weeks rest to go into Texas A and M. This

715
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 2: is easy, okay, So okay, So maybe they finished up

716
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 2: six to two in the SEC. Seven and one is

717
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 2: going to get you into the end of the championship

718
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 2: game in my opinion, or it's going to put you

719
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 2: in a tie and we'll see tie breakers. So the

720
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 2: bet for me Missouri five to one to make an

721
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 2: appearance in the SEC championship game, and I've got it

722
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,240
Speaker 2: in my calendar. It's going to go off that week

723
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 2: against Texas A and M. October fifth, against Texas A

724
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 2: and M. I'm buying the aggies as a hedge. That

725
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 2: game should be a coin flip. I don't expect either

726
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 2: team to be favored by more than three. You should

727
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 2: be able to get a money line minus one twenty

728
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 2: year better on Texas A and M, and that serves

729
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 2: as a great hedge to a five to one ticket

730
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 2: on Missouri to be in Atlanta. I don't think they

731
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 2: can win. They definitely have a ceiling, definitely get exposed.

732
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 2: I think Alabama's just gonna they're going to have a

733
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 2: oh circus trip with that secondary of Missouri. But this

734
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 2: is a seven and one SEC schedule, and Texas A

735
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 2: and M is the lynch. Is the pen we got

736
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 2: to focus on.

737
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 1: I mean, I said they finished nine and three, but

738
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 1: it wouldn't shop me they finished eight and four, especially

739
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 1: if those injuries. But I think they lose at Texas

740
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 1: A and M, at Alabama and then at South Carolina,

741
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 1: could easily lose it against Oklahoma too.

742
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 2: The converse of that is the higher of Kirby Moore

743
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 2: from Fresno was just a boom for this offense. It's

744
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 2: what got them over the five hundred hump that drink

745
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 2: spin in every year. So not only anybody figured out

746
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 2: Kirby Moore how to how to defend what it is

747
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 2: that he puts in the field with Brady Cook and

748
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 2: Luther Burton.

749
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, let's move on to your favorite team.

750
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 1: The Tennessee volunteers very similar high level storylines heading into

751
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: the season as Missouri. Pretty manageable schedule, not as easy

752
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 1: as Missouri, but it is significantly easier than the Florida's

753
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 1: of the world. And there's major questions on defense. They

754
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 1: lost almost every one of the back end of their defense.

755
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 1: Lol'st ten defensive backs in the offseason, three to the

756
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 1: NFL seven of the portals. There's a lot of questions

757
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 1: across the board. Even at linebacker you lose a ton,

758
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 1: you get peely back from injury, but the rest there's questions.

759
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:32,359
Speaker 1: Defensive backfield just absolutely decimated across the board. You're going

760
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 1: to need some transfers to hit on the back end

761
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 1: of that defense. The defensive line should be good led

762
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 1: by Pierce at defensive end, but you did lose his

763
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 1: running mate at the other spot and Tyler Barron. So

764
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 1: the defensive line should be solid, but everything else is

765
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 1: a question. On defense. The offense, you know, you lose

766
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 1: your top two backs, Sampson takes over. There's some depth

767
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:02,760
Speaker 1: questions at wide receiver. That Water removes a couple guys,

768
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 1: but White and Thornton or back McCoy returns from injury. Braslo,

769
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 1: who I really like from Tulane, comes in. You had

770
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 1: a tight end from Notre Dame offensive line I think

771
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 1: should be okay. It really comes down to Nico on

772
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 1: this offense and whether or not it reaches its ceiling.

773
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 1: I think that it would help if, like it, just

774
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 1: an alpha steps up at receiver. You need that number

775
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 1: one to emerge us that as the potential guy. And

776
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,240
Speaker 1: the quarterback depth is a bit scary. But h Nico

777
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 1: young kid. We saw him flash against a really good

778
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: defense in the bowl game against Iowa, So what can

779
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: we get from him from a consistency, from a week

780
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:50,919
Speaker 1: in and week out perspective, I think we'll determine where

781
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 1: this offense can go. But ultimately it might be the

782
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 1: defense that really holds his team back because there are

783
00:42:56,440 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 1: a lot of questions on the back end. But in

784
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 1: fairness to this Tennessee and their main question is in

785
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 1: the back end of the day, pretty manageable schedule of

786
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: opposing pass offenses. Now you get NC State early, it's

787
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 1: going to be a major test. We'll learn a lot

788
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: about Nico and a defense that can confuse quarterbacks. At

789
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 1: NC State at Oklahoma will not be easy, but you know,

790
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 1: you have Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, UTEP, Vandy, Chattanooga, kent

791
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 1: State like that. So there's some teams on this schedule

792
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 1: where you can get by. But I think it really

793
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: lowers their potential ceiling if they don't figure out the

794
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 1: back end of this d because you still have Alabama

795
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 1: and you still have Georgia and Oklahoma. As I mentioned

796
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 1: in NC State win total eight and a half juice

797
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,280
Speaker 1: to the over eighteen to one ish to win the SEC.

798
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 1: I project them around eight point six. I have them

799
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 1: favored in nine. But I don't like the the front

800
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 1: loaded schedule for a young quarterback because it gets a

801
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 1: little bit easier outside of that Georgia at the end

802
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 1: of the year. But I have them a favorite of

803
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 1: nine but a single digit favorite. And three did you

804
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 1: get to play four of the five worst teams in

805
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 1: the SEC? Avoid Texas Old Miss at LSU, which again,

806
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: that's good for a secondary that has questions. You avoid

807
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 1: Texas Old Miss at LSU. I didn't play anything on

808
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 1: Tennessee preseason. How about you? What are your thoughts on

809
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:32,879
Speaker 1: the balls and what do you find? Wish that I

810
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 1: was a rocky top down in Tennessee.

811
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 3: I ain't no small, small rock, I ain't no pelopond I.

812
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 2: Did play against them in the preseason. Here now Nico,

813
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 2: I mean, his Heisman market down to fifteen to one

814
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: seems a little crazy. But at the same time, I

815
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 2: have not heard anybody say that he can't do at

816
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 2: least the job that Hendon Hooker did two years ago.

817
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 2: I mean, all of the hate that I had for

818
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 2: Tennessee last year was based on Joe Milton and the

819
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 2: fact that Josh Hipel's stretch and spread offense requires to

820
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 2: stretch the field, and then all of the Whiteouts have

821
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 2: timing routes and they have to stay on their routes,

822
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 2: and if their steps aren't perfect, it's going to you know,

823
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 2: the offense isn't going to work as well. That's why

824
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,720
Speaker 2: Hindon Herko was perfect. He could anybody at three seconds,

825
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 2: five seconds too, so he knew exactly whereveryone's going to be.

826
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,879
Speaker 2: Joe Milton didn't have that accuracy. There's no problem here

827
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 2: with Nico accuracy timing. He's going to be able to

828
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 2: run Josh Hypel's offense squirrel wides back. He had three

829
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:30,919
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty nine snaps out of the slot, most

830
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 2: targets on the team. He'll be back. And then Dancie

831
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 2: Thornton from Oregon is light on experience, but he averaged

832
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,760
Speaker 2: well over two yards per route run in each season

833
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 2: that he was there with the Ducks, So I think

834
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: he can serve as that white out. That maybe what

835
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 2: Nico is going to need. If we want to compare

836
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 2: to two years ago and the offensive line. They know

837
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 2: they're not supposed to have any problems this year. It's

838
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 2: supposed to be a decent offensive line. But they did

839
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,760
Speaker 2: allow twelve pressures out of nineteen dropbacks by Nico against Iowa,

840
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 2: so you're going to have to protect him just a

841
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 2: little bit more. Tons of seniors in the trench and

842
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: LSU transfer lance herd comes in to protect the blind

843
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 2: side there for Nico, the defense is where my play

844
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 2: came in. I mean the secondary wasn't just wiped on

845
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 2: the starters, the second string was wiped literally there was

846
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 2: nobody in the two deep whatsoever. The names read this

847
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 2: look zero experience. There's no nothing significant from a recruiting

848
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 2: standpoint either. So they're in a lot of trouble now.

849
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 2: They will be favored in nine games. They're gonna be

850
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 2: coming off of bye week in favorite spots against Arkansas

851
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 2: at home and then again and then at home against Kentucky.

852
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 2: So there are there are favorable spots, but there's just

853
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,879
Speaker 2: three games here. You're not gonna win. You're not gonna

854
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 2: beat Oklahoma, you're not gonna beat Alabama, and you're not

855
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 2: gonna be Georgia. They all three have quarterbacks that can

856
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 2: get into that secondary real fast, and I'm sure it

857
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 2: might be the first play of the game when you

858
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:50,839
Speaker 2: see those three quarterbacks going up against it. I think

859
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 2: they have absolutely no shot to win those games. That

860
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 2: puts their ceiling at nine wins. I project them closer

861
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 2: to eight than I do nine. They have to sweep

862
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:00,359
Speaker 2: the remaining schedule outside of those three games. I just

863
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 2: I don't see it happening with the secondary like this,

864
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:04,399
Speaker 2: You're going to get into a lot of shootouts. Are

865
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 2: we completely convinced that Arkansas can't throw downfield? We'll talk

866
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:10,239
Speaker 2: about them, you know, on the next pod. But are

867
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:14,280
Speaker 2: we completely Are we completely convinced that Graham Mertz can't

868
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 2: his accuracy, that he's not gonna be able to get

869
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:17,480
Speaker 2: something downfield?

870
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 1: Wenc State with McCall and yeah, prove wide receiver room.

871
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,399
Speaker 1: That's not an easy game in Charlotte in week two.

872
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, you just go down the schedule and ask yourself

873
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 2: which one of these teams can get into the secondary.

874
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 2: It's a lot. And that has me with a bet.

875
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 2: And I don't like betting juices more than minus one

876
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 2: fifty in preseason. I hate it. You guys almost never

877
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:40,640
Speaker 2: see in the action app after six seven years we've

878
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 2: been doing this, I almost never do it. But Tennessee

879
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 2: no playoff. Minus two twenty is a fabulous number when

880
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 2: it comes to a value perspective. Now, you heard Stuck

881
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 2: rattle off the teams and we think they make the

882
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 2: College Football Playoff And then I said it goes five deep,

883
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 2: and one of those five teams that has a projection

884
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 2: over nine point two. It's not Tennessee. This is this

885
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 2: is not good because the secondary is going to get

886
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,239
Speaker 2: hit pretty bad and it's going to keep them from

887
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 2: getting to nine. I think they've been eight best, so

888
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:10,479
Speaker 2: no playoff minus THU twenty.

889
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:13,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're interesting. Thing you mentioned the Heisman. We'll have

890
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:20,560
Speaker 1: more Heisman content coming up before the season. But if

891
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,720
Speaker 1: the defense takes a big step back, there's major questions

892
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:26,840
Speaker 1: in the secondary. What does that mean? Well, what do

893
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 1: we just see last year, right, Daniels won the Heisman.

894
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:35,280
Speaker 1: Team wasn't spectacular, wasn't in the mix for a collegewell playoffs,

895
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 1: spot shootouts, put up silly numbers against bad teams, and

896
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 1: then shootouts against good teams. There's gonna be some potential

897
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:47,799
Speaker 1: opportunities for Nico to put up some silly numbers because

898
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,839
Speaker 1: they're definitely going to be in some shootouts. So that's

899
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 1: the bullish case if you were interested or already bet

900
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 1: him to win the Heisman. All right, let's move on

901
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 1: now to the South Carolina game Cocks win total five

902
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 1: and a half juiced taken some over money juice a

903
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 1: little bit more to the over from where it was

904
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 1: about a month ago. Last year finished five and seven.

905
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:23,280
Speaker 2: We got a tough bunch.

906
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 1: Spencer Rattler is out. You're gonna have a new signal

907
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: caller under center. Hopefully you can get him some help

908
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 1: in the running game. They average under three yards per

909
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 1: carry last year. They also lose everyone at wide receiver,

910
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: major question mark, heavy transferver liiant in that position. The

911
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 1: offensive line definitely part of the reason why they couldn't

912
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 1: really run the ball last year. But you have four

913
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:52,439
Speaker 1: starters back, bring in a couple of transfers, you're much

914
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:56,600
Speaker 1: more experienced. You're hoping that position group takes a leap.

915
00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:03,680
Speaker 1: This should be a heavy run based offense. On the

916
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:06,319
Speaker 1: defensive side, the defensive line is very deep. There's a

917
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 1: lot of talent there. They do need to find that

918
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 1: just have more of a consistent pass rush. But the

919
00:50:14,680 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 1: front seven is solid. I like their safeties. Cornerback is

920
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,800
Speaker 1: the major question for me, especially at one of the spots.

921
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 1: And going back to the offensive side of the ball,

922
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,360
Speaker 1: I think, look, if you can find you might have

923
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 1: a freshman starting at left tackle, you can find the

924
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 1: offensive line chemistry continuit. If you can find that, what

925
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 1: that group the best group looks like you got to

926
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:37,480
Speaker 1: have someone needs to step up as the number one receiver.

927
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:40,320
Speaker 1: And then can your boy Rocket Sanders. Can you stay healthy?

928
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 1: Because we can the running game should be much better

929
00:50:43,120 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 1: than it was last year. So there's a lot of

930
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:49,279
Speaker 1: questions on this team, but they're definitely intriguing. I like

931
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 1: them headed coming into the year. I project them at

932
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 1: five point nine. So one of the rare unders don't

933
00:50:57,480 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 1: like many. Excuse me, one of the rare overs that

934
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:02,959
Speaker 1: I actually consider in the SEC, don't really like many

935
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 1: based on my projections. They do have four easy wins

936
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 1: on the schedule. You have Old Dominion at home, you

937
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 1: have Akron at home, You're at Vanderbilt, although that spot

938
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 1: is a bit trappy, and then you have Wafford at home,

939
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 1: so that should be your absolute floor. And you know

940
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 1: you have some tough that you have some tough conference

941
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:30,839
Speaker 1: home games which might really limit their ceiling. When you're

942
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:35,840
Speaker 1: playing at home. You're playing lsu Ole, miss Texas A

943
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 1: and M Missouri. And then I didn't even get into

944
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 1: your going to Oklahoma and Clemson. So you know four

945
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 1: or four here the rest of the schedule, they're in

946
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 1: the SEC. It's South Ghana It's obviously gonna be tough,

947
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 1: but it's not as tough as it has been with

948
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: the divisions used to be even tougher for South Carolina,

949
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:56,439
Speaker 1: which also will end the year at Clemson. What say

950
00:51:56,520 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 1: you on South Carolina with a fresh face under center?

951
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean from a strength of schedule perspective, we

952
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:06,759
Speaker 2: got Florida at number one, Missouri at twenty ninth, in

953
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 2: South Carolina at seventeenth. So if you want to know

954
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 2: how tough the schedule is, it kind of falls right

955
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:15,360
Speaker 2: outside the top, right inside the top twenty. Shane bieberg

956
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 2: Go was five and seven, and he didn't he didn't

957
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:19,320
Speaker 2: fire either of his coordinators or making any huge changes

958
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 2: with Dalla Logans and Clayton White. I mean, there's case

959
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:23,840
Speaker 2: to be made that both of them really failed with

960
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 2: their job. I know that razorback fans were extremely happy

961
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:31,440
Speaker 2: when Dalla Logans took off for South Carolina, but no

962
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 2: changes were made on either side and the trenches were

963
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 2: just horrific. That's the biggest problem with this team. The

964
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:40,799
Speaker 2: offense ranked one hundred and eighteenth in sacks allowed, the

965
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 2: defense ranked one hundred and twenty first and tackles for loss,

966
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 2: and nothing has been done in the off season to

967
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,399
Speaker 2: improve the offensive line or the defensive line. So now,

968
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 2: who's going to play quarterback for US? Three star? Dual

969
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 2: threat Leonoras Sellers six foot.

970
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:58,760
Speaker 1: Nine two, got Robbie Ashford in the mix from Alburn.

971
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:03,440
Speaker 1: Just would you think of both them? Dual threat, mobile

972
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:05,800
Speaker 1: guys at limited that's fasts.

973
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 2: That's the good news, right, the playbook fits both quarterbacks.

974
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 2: Six foot three two forty five Lenora Sellers is a mountain,

975
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 2: but he's a three star and he runs a ton

976
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 2: of inside outside zone. It's just his zone heavy, and

977
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 2: that's what it's going to be. Raheem Sanders for Rocket

978
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 2: Sanders mild razorback, twenty two hundred career rushing yard, seventeen touchdowns,

979
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:27,960
Speaker 2: but consistent injuries and you know, we'll talk about the

980
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 2: Razorbacks later. I mean, Raheem is no stranger to playing

981
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:34,479
Speaker 2: behind an inefficient offensive line, so at least he's got

982
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 2: that going for. There's no current receiver. This is what

983
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:39,240
Speaker 2: I can't get my head wrapped around. This is crazy

984
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 2: in this day. No current receiver on this roster garnered

985
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 2: more than twelve receptions last year? What like, how how

986
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:50,320
Speaker 2: is it that empty? The offensive line injuries. There was

987
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:51,799
Speaker 2: a lot of injuries. Last you're the offensive line, they

988
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 2: return a lot of bodies. Their light on experience center

989
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 2: for Sean Lee, he's the highest graded run blocker and

990
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:59,439
Speaker 2: pass blocker. So at least they do have it figured

991
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:02,480
Speaker 2: out at the center position. And I would expect Lenora

992
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 2: Sellers is going to probably have some success with Rocket

993
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:08,880
Speaker 2: Sanders doing zone rate against defensive front sevens that have poles.

994
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:11,239
Speaker 2: There's not a lot of them on the schedule though,

995
00:54:12,120 --> 00:54:14,879
Speaker 2: so they had seven hundred plays on defense last year

996
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:17,880
Speaker 2: in four two five personnel. The back seven is definitely

997
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 2: the strength. I already mentioned how poor this defense was

998
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 2: in the trench the Game of Cocks. I think they

999
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 2: you know, they dodged the upper tier of the SEC.

1000
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:26,919
Speaker 2: They don't have Georgia, they don't have Texas. But guess

1001
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 2: what you get every other team that's projected to be

1002
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,880
Speaker 2: in the top half. And you know, back to back

1003
00:54:31,960 --> 00:54:34,920
Speaker 2: road trips in September against Alabama and Oklahoma, you I mean,

1004
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,799
Speaker 2: those are two losses, and then you're you know, you're

1005
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 2: gonna be double digit favorites against this joke of a

1006
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 2: non con And then you got Vanderbilt, which will be

1007
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 2: a big favorite on but that's it, You're done game.

1008
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 2: Cocks are not expected to be a favorite in any

1009
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 2: other game except the non con and Vanderbilt and Kentucky's

1010
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,440
Speaker 2: the only game where they're an underdog of a spread

1011
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 2: that's in single digits. So I don't see any way

1012
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:58,280
Speaker 2: this team gets to five and a half. I project

1013
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 2: them at five point four, but you just go down

1014
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:03,040
Speaker 2: just I do not back teams that are terrible in

1015
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 2: the trench, especially on both sides of the ball, and

1016
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:07,279
Speaker 2: I am not backing these coordinators. Not a fan of

1017
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:10,319
Speaker 2: either of them. Beemer's seat is getting as hot as

1018
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 2: a random Pittman. Let's see how this plays out. But

1019
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 2: they're not making a bowl again. So under five and

1020
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 2: a half minus one o five very juice friendly.

1021
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 1: I semi disagree with lean over. I'm not sure if

1022
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 1: I'll end up playing it, but I'm a bit higher

1023
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:26,080
Speaker 1: than the market on South Carona.

1024
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:28,719
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt has a quarterback that can take advantage of this

1025
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 2: defensive line, so I'm excited and partying.

1026
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 3: Just a good old friendly expression from the Deep South.

1027
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:38,400
Speaker 2: Buye and hurry back.

1028
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 1: Stop all right, we're getting too Speaking of Vanderbilt, let's

1029
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:45,120
Speaker 1: go to Vanderbilt, a team that will not get to

1030
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 1: a bowl. Win total sitting in around right around three

1031
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 1: over three minus one fifteen minus one twenty. They are

1032
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 1: five hundred to one to win the SEC. If you're

1033
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:58,600
Speaker 1: in the mood to throw away and burn some money,

1034
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 1: this is Clark Lee's team. Still not sure for how long?

1035
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:08,080
Speaker 1: We know that in time Vannerbilt football will be the

1036
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 1: best program in the country. This Vanderbilt team, look, they

1037
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:14,440
Speaker 1: bring in a new offensive coordinator, a new offensive staff.

1038
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:19,239
Speaker 1: It's basically New Mexico State again. Jerry Kill is even

1039
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 1: an analyst. Tim Beck comes over as the oh see

1040
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:32,320
Speaker 1: Diego Pavia. The Ponzi scheme is now in Nashville, although

1041
00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 1: he wasn't running with the Ones. It might be Nate Johnson,

1042
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:39,280
Speaker 1: the transfer from Utah. They're gonna run like a gimmicky offense,

1043
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 1: which is what they should do. I mean, just it's

1044
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:43,840
Speaker 1: gonna be like an option based offense. They're gonna be

1045
00:56:43,840 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 1: like a rotating offensive lineman. Apparently like these rotating it's

1046
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:48,960
Speaker 1: gonna be.

1047
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:51,719
Speaker 2: So what you're meaning is so the right side of

1048
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:54,959
Speaker 2: this offensive line is good, right, But when they're gonna

1049
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 2: run the ball left, they're gonna line up their garden

1050
00:56:56,600 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 2: tackle to the left and they're gonna run the ball right.

1051
00:56:58,000 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 2: They're gonna line these two guys up to the right.

1052
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:01,720
Speaker 2: That is never worked in Pee Wee high school football.

1053
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,719
Speaker 2: I don't understand that, but let's try here.

1054
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 1: Yeah. They also their top three receivers of the portal

1055
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 1: and that was the strength of the team last year

1056
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:17,040
Speaker 1: in Shepherd, Humphries and Mcowan. Look everything, everyone's going to

1057
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 1: quarterback when you bring in Bobby also, Bobby is back

1058
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:23,360
Speaker 1: up and then Nate Johnson. Yep, this team is it's bad.

1059
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 1: I don't know what to say. They lost both their

1060
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:30,440
Speaker 1: linebackers to safeties, their best defensive lineman. I love CJ. Taylor,

1061
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 1: He's probably their best player and he's moving to free safety.

1062
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 1: But I like their safeties. It's about it. They can't

1063
00:57:37,600 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 1: get pressure, horrible coverage the last three years, bottom twenty

1064
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:44,480
Speaker 1: pass d the last four years. Like, there's just not

1065
00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 1: much like. And then by the way, they have a

1066
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 1: really hard schedule. Danny's always gonna have ard schedule, but

1067
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 1: they have even arder schedule for Vanda this year, the

1068
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 1: third topest in the SEC. They also don't get the

1069
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 1: face of Arkansas or Mississippi State. Sorry to put your

1070
00:57:56,760 --> 00:58:00,280
Speaker 1: hogs in that class, but they're projected to finish by

1071
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 1: the bottom and they don't get to play either one

1072
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:04,520
Speaker 1: of those. They have three winnable games on the schedule.

1073
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 1: In my opinion, it's so I would lean under if

1074
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:11,480
Speaker 1: I had a bet it I project what do I project?

1075
00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:14,720
Speaker 1: I project two point nine, So I don't see a

1076
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 1: ton of value to get involved here. But they play

1077
00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:22,439
Speaker 1: Alcorn State at home, They're at Georgia State and their

1078
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:25,560
Speaker 1: home against Ball State. I look at Georgia State like

1079
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 1: Ball State, like this is this is who Vandy should

1080
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:30,840
Speaker 1: be playing. Like their win total will be like eight

1081
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 1: and a half nine if they were in like the

1082
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 1: MAC in the Sunbelt, this is what they need to do.

1083
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:39,880
Speaker 1: I don't know understand, And then I don't know why

1084
00:58:39,920 --> 00:58:41,800
Speaker 1: they're in the SEC. It's insane. I look at the

1085
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 1: projected spreads nine games on their schedule. I'm gonna have

1086
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 1: them as an underdog of fourteen plus seven times twenty

1087
00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:54,960
Speaker 1: one plus. I mean, I look at their projected spread zone.

1088
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:58,480
Speaker 1: It's shocking. The second half of the schedule height plus

1089
00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 1: thirty plus thirty one. I mean, it's insane. So they

1090
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: are they have in my opinion, and they could steal one.

1091
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:11,280
Speaker 1: I mean they could maybe steal one against South Carolina.

1092
00:59:13,720 --> 00:59:15,640
Speaker 1: You know, you catch someone in just a bad spot,

1093
00:59:15,680 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 1: but it's you start with Bob Tekett start the year off.

1094
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 1: Weird things happen in week one, but they're really gonna

1095
00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:26,640
Speaker 1: have to steal one to get to four wins. There'll

1096
00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:30,200
Speaker 1: be a favorite in three games. So I would lean under,

1097
00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:34,000
Speaker 1: but don't see much value here. What are your thoughts

1098
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:35,400
Speaker 1: on the doors.

1099
00:59:35,640 --> 00:59:38,200
Speaker 2: Well, I'm sure every talking head and every podcast it's

1100
00:59:38,240 --> 00:59:42,200
Speaker 2: covering college for ball in the world is saying under under,

1101
00:59:42,320 --> 00:59:45,200
Speaker 2: who could do this? Who could take this? Welcome to

1102
00:59:45,200 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 2: the big bets on campus, because I'm going to tell

1103
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 2: you that we're taking it over. You're taking over three Oh,

1104
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:50,560
Speaker 2: I got money on it. It's in the app. We're going.

1105
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 2: Let's go so on this scheme. Three hundred million in

1106
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 2: stadium renovations. They have got to get something going. Clerk

1107
00:59:59,800 --> 01:00:02,000
Speaker 2: Leaves says, I'm going to be the defensive coordinator. I'm

1108
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 2: going to go back to what I was at Notre Dame,

1109
01:00:04,320 --> 01:00:07,360
Speaker 2: running at four two five and frankly he was excellent

1110
01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:10,400
Speaker 2: at it. And then what he did is He got

1111
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 2: Jerry Kill to come to town to essentially act as acting

1112
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 2: head coach, except only focused on the offensive side of

1113
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:20,600
Speaker 2: the ball. It was an unbelievable move after they snagged

1114
01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:24,080
Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator and quarterback from New Mexico State. The

1115
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 2: pipeline from Las crusis to Nashville. It doesn't stop there.

1116
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 2: There are some transfers that came in with him, offensive line,

1117
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:33,080
Speaker 2: some trenches, some areas of Vanderbilt needed help. But what

1118
01:00:33,160 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 2: is this offense going to look like? The Aggies ran

1119
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:39,880
Speaker 2: plenty of ten and eleven formation, sixty percent lean to

1120
01:00:39,920 --> 01:00:42,600
Speaker 2: the rush. Of course, with Pavia, zone rate option is

1121
01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:44,880
Speaker 2: the backbone. So when you go through the schedule, you

1122
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:47,960
Speaker 2: got a look at guys that have bad defensive interior

1123
01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: to see if Pavia can take care of that, which

1124
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:52,040
Speaker 2: is how I got back to South Carolina. So Pavia

1125
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 2: threw for three thousand yards, another thousand on the ground,

1126
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:58,560
Speaker 2: thirty three total touchdowns. He's a machine. Now the defense

1127
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 2: returns nearly eighty percent on every single stat category. Linebacker

1128
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:04,680
Speaker 2: Lanks and Patterson is there. He is going to be

1129
01:01:04,760 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 2: Lee's guy in the middle and floater in the four

1130
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 2: two five. So I like that but one hundred and

1131
01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:13,640
Speaker 2: thirtieth and allowing opponents to create quality drives. Everybody got

1132
01:01:13,680 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 2: into scoring position, everybody got past the fifty. Everybody got it.

1133
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:20,120
Speaker 2: You got a chance to get points. So we'll see

1134
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:22,360
Speaker 2: if clerk Lee's focused there can stop any of these

1135
01:01:22,360 --> 01:01:24,880
Speaker 2: things that are pretty bad one hundred and twenty fifth

1136
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:26,960
Speaker 2: and coverage one hundred and eighteenth and pass rush. Lee

1137
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:29,640
Speaker 2: has got to have his best year of his entire

1138
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 2: career to get this Vanderbilt team inside the top one hundred.

1139
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:34,400
Speaker 2: Now they're going to be favorites in two games. Right,

1140
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:37,000
Speaker 2: we talked about al Corn and ball State, not even

1141
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 2: worried about that. I mean, after what I watched Pavia,

1142
01:01:40,160 --> 01:01:44,400
Speaker 2: do I think the September fourteenth game against Georgia State,

1143
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:46,680
Speaker 2: that's a game that I project Vandy on the road

1144
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:47,959
Speaker 2: to be a favorite by three.

1145
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:50,040
Speaker 1: That's pretty tight, so I project too.

1146
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:52,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you did this, you did the Sun Belt

1147
01:01:52,720 --> 01:01:58,000
Speaker 2: pod and Georgia State is rough when it comes to experience, right,

1148
01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:00,200
Speaker 2: I mean, we're we're talking could be about I'm of

1149
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:03,880
Speaker 2: the cellar there in their division, I'm sorry, in the conference,

1150
01:02:04,480 --> 01:02:07,160
Speaker 2: So you know, I think that could get them to three.

1151
01:02:08,440 --> 01:02:10,000
Speaker 2: But after that you're gonna have to have an sec

1152
01:02:10,120 --> 01:02:12,360
Speaker 2: upset to get over this win total. Well, what do

1153
01:02:12,400 --> 01:02:16,720
Speaker 2: you know, Vandy goes to Auburn on November two. Jerry

1154
01:02:16,800 --> 01:02:21,200
Speaker 2: Kill has Jerry Kill has beaten Hugh Freeze two years

1155
01:02:21,240 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 2: in a row once when Hugh Freeze was with the

1156
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:26,560
Speaker 2: Flames last year to ruin my over six and a

1157
01:02:26,600 --> 01:02:27,840
Speaker 2: half Auburn win total.

1158
01:02:28,720 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 1: Revenge that Auburn loss.

1159
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 2: No, I mean my so, my win total projection mathematically

1160
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:38,160
Speaker 2: is dead on three. But I see three wins on

1161
01:02:38,200 --> 01:02:41,440
Speaker 2: this schedule. So I'm playing the over because can they

1162
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:45,760
Speaker 2: snag one somewhere down the line. Sure South Carolina is

1163
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:50,520
Speaker 2: on this schedule. Sure Auburn's on the schedule. No problems

1164
01:02:50,560 --> 01:02:54,200
Speaker 2: there right. Oh, by the way, Missouri's on this schedule.

1165
01:02:54,360 --> 01:02:57,640
Speaker 2: Now listen. I'm a fan of Missouri, but diego Pavie

1166
01:02:57,640 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 2: against that defense. Come on, that could be your spot.

1167
01:02:59,880 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 2: We both could help each other out here. I'm going

1168
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:04,880
Speaker 2: over three. I projected it pushing rooting.

1169
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:07,240
Speaker 1: I will be rooting for the Ponzi scheme against Missouri.

1170
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:09,560
Speaker 2: Tall Well, we're okay, Well, we're both all in here

1171
01:03:09,600 --> 01:03:11,160
Speaker 2: because that's the game begin I'm not sure.

1172
01:03:11,080 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 1: It's gonna be Pavia, by the way, and it's a

1173
01:03:12,720 --> 01:03:14,560
Speaker 1: big jump on the s C. I think Nate Johnson

1174
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 1: was was I think today was the starter. Uh with

1175
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:22,919
Speaker 1: the ones now recording this early August by the way,

1176
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:24,600
Speaker 1: so like some things could change by the time it's

1177
01:03:24,600 --> 01:03:29,000
Speaker 1: coming out. They then you both might will probably get

1178
01:03:29,040 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 1: looks early in the season and then they're going to

1179
01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:33,919
Speaker 1: be in some blowout losses, so you're going to see

1180
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:34,640
Speaker 1: both and then we'll.

1181
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:35,000
Speaker 2: See where it go.

1182
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 1: So the the quarterback position is definitely in flux. But uh,

1183
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:45,919
Speaker 1: good luck to you and uh finding an sec win

1184
01:03:47,280 --> 01:03:49,560
Speaker 1: or maybe I mean maybe you steal steal the opener.

1185
01:03:50,720 --> 01:03:54,439
Speaker 1: Every year we see a couple upsets in week one,

1186
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 1: and they're gonna have a gimmicky offense right that it's

1187
01:03:59,720 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 1: which which I think that they should do. They have

1188
01:04:02,480 --> 01:04:06,439
Speaker 1: they're such a talent discrepancy that just go go full

1189
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:09,960
Speaker 1: gimmick run the triple. Yeah, and it's not like it's

1190
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:13,520
Speaker 1: an unwinnable game in the opener. They're gonna be thirteen

1191
01:04:13,560 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 1: fourteen point dogs.

1192
01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:17,000
Speaker 2: There's so much love for Virginia Tech in the market,

1193
01:04:17,040 --> 01:04:18,920
Speaker 2: it's actually going to be a really good number on

1194
01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:19,840
Speaker 2: the board when we get there.

1195
01:04:20,040 --> 01:04:26,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's close things out with the Texas Longhorns.

1196
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 1: Hook them horns down. By the way, I won't be

1197
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:33,120
Speaker 1: penalized the SEC announced, so expect to see plenty of

1198
01:04:33,160 --> 01:04:37,520
Speaker 1: those signs horns down. This is a team that went

1199
01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:40,040
Speaker 1: eleven and one in the regular season last year, won

1200
01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:42,720
Speaker 1: the Big Twelve Championship blowout, fashion went to the College

1201
01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:47,480
Speaker 1: Fotball Playoff, lost to Washington despite a chance to win

1202
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 1: that game late. This is a team that has a

1203
01:04:52,080 --> 01:04:57,040
Speaker 1: lot of continuity, especially on the staff when yours back

1204
01:04:57,040 --> 01:05:02,600
Speaker 1: at quarterback horns up. There are still some questions there,

1205
01:05:03,280 --> 01:05:08,040
Speaker 1: specifically just around his deep ball footwork. That's just something

1206
01:05:08,080 --> 01:05:11,600
Speaker 1: that I hope, I know we'll see once the season

1207
01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:14,640
Speaker 1: rolls around that he just needs to work on. Hasn't

1208
01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:16,960
Speaker 1: really put the time in based on reports, to really

1209
01:05:17,160 --> 01:05:20,280
Speaker 1: work on just because his arm talent is so spectacular

1210
01:05:21,360 --> 01:05:24,640
Speaker 1: and he's such a talented kid. Arch Manning. Maybe he'll

1211
01:05:24,680 --> 01:05:29,160
Speaker 1: get some some more looks this year, but he's back.

1212
01:05:29,280 --> 01:05:32,960
Speaker 1: Is the backup great insurance policy, right if there's an injury,

1213
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 1: but he's talked about Missouri, he had Drew Pine coming

1214
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 1: in there. If he gets a great book gets hurt,

1215
01:05:39,040 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 1: if Quinnywers is to go down for any stretch. You

1216
01:05:41,320 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 1: do have arch Manning in there. Lose Brooks are running back,

1217
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:46,640
Speaker 1: but he was hurt last year, Baxton Blue, You'll be

1218
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:49,640
Speaker 1: fine there. The big question on offense offensive line is

1219
01:05:51,560 --> 01:05:55,560
Speaker 1: they have sec physicality like they're okay, they're right tackle

1220
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:59,840
Speaker 1: only question there after losing Joanes something that I'm watching

1221
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:02,240
Speaker 1: wide receiver room is interesting because you lose three to

1222
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:04,480
Speaker 1: the NFL and your tight end Sanders, it was Whittington,

1223
01:06:04,520 --> 01:06:08,120
Speaker 1: Mitchell and Worthy. Bring in a lot of guys in

1224
01:06:08,120 --> 01:06:11,280
Speaker 1: the portal. You have a bunch of five stars. Who's

1225
01:06:11,280 --> 01:06:13,880
Speaker 1: stepping up as the one? What does that room look like?

1226
01:06:13,920 --> 01:06:16,760
Speaker 1: Sark said that they might they might play seven wide receivers.

1227
01:06:17,400 --> 01:06:19,600
Speaker 1: You know, he said that, look, it's a long season.

1228
01:06:19,760 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 1: We might have to play you know, four or five

1229
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:23,600
Speaker 1: extra games. But you go to the SC Championship on

1230
01:06:23,600 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 1: the cultural playoff, so he wanted to be more focused on,

1231
01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:30,720
Speaker 1: you know, reps and depth. So they have a lot

1232
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 1: of guys, But how's that room going to come together?

1233
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:37,520
Speaker 1: That's definitely a question. Bigger questions on the defense because

1234
01:06:37,560 --> 01:06:41,840
Speaker 1: you lose two mountains in the middle in Sweat and Murphy.

1235
01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:45,400
Speaker 1: Those are huge losses. You know, Collins brought in the

1236
01:06:45,440 --> 01:06:49,480
Speaker 1: next guys up. It's definitely a downgrade. He added the

1237
01:06:49,520 --> 01:06:52,480
Speaker 1: couple from Arizona, Lo La, who has a lot of experience.

1238
01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:56,520
Speaker 1: He's going to be relied upon. Your defensive ends are back.

1239
01:06:56,960 --> 01:06:59,080
Speaker 1: You had Trey More from UTSA. We'll see if he

1240
01:06:59,120 --> 01:07:02,200
Speaker 1: can make the lead to the SEC. I mean, you

1241
01:07:02,200 --> 01:07:07,080
Speaker 1: lose a linebacker, look forward to the NFL. You lose

1242
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:11,880
Speaker 1: a couple defensive back to the portal. I had questions

1243
01:07:11,880 --> 01:07:16,160
Speaker 1: on this defense in tier. The defensive line you could

1244
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:19,840
Speaker 1: not run on Texas last year, couldn't do it, so

1245
01:07:19,880 --> 01:07:22,400
Speaker 1: you had to throw it and the defensive backfield wasn't great.

1246
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:27,360
Speaker 1: Still have questions there on the defensive backfield. You bring

1247
01:07:27,360 --> 01:07:29,919
Speaker 1: in a couple of transfers who you're hoping will help

1248
01:07:29,960 --> 01:07:33,680
Speaker 1: in that department. You know, if I'm going to spin

1249
01:07:33,720 --> 01:07:35,840
Speaker 1: this positively because I think their defensive line and hence

1250
01:07:35,840 --> 01:07:37,560
Speaker 1: their runde is going to take a step back. They

1251
01:07:37,760 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 1: some of the elite teams that they do face have

1252
01:07:39,720 --> 01:07:42,840
Speaker 1: a lot of offensive line turnover. Right, So Michigan you're

1253
01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:45,200
Speaker 1: going to face in Week two a lot of offensive

1254
01:07:45,280 --> 01:07:49,720
Speaker 1: line turnover is an example there Oklahoma, the Red Red

1255
01:07:49,800 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 1: rivalry face them game six. A lot of offensive line turnover,

1256
01:07:54,160 --> 01:07:58,560
Speaker 1: so toughest games in the schedule. How those offensive lines

1257
01:07:58,560 --> 01:08:03,000
Speaker 1: come together probably goes a long way in determining if

1258
01:08:03,040 --> 01:08:06,160
Speaker 1: Texas reaches their ceiling, because if those offensive lines are

1259
01:08:06,160 --> 01:08:09,800
Speaker 1: really struggling, Texas can get away with some of their

1260
01:08:09,840 --> 01:08:15,080
Speaker 1: defensive line issues. They also will host Georgia after that

1261
01:08:15,120 --> 01:08:18,040
Speaker 1: Oklahoma game, as you mentioned, and then they finish up

1262
01:08:18,040 --> 01:08:21,519
Speaker 1: the year at Texas A and M. In the regular

1263
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:26,720
Speaker 1: season finale, they avoid Ole, miss LSU, Missouri, Alabama, and Tennessee.

1264
01:08:28,240 --> 01:08:30,799
Speaker 1: They also get five of the six worst projected teams,

1265
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:36,400
Speaker 1: so it's a pretty manageable SEC schedule all things considered.

1266
01:08:36,760 --> 01:08:38,720
Speaker 1: What makes it a bit tougher is that game too.

1267
01:08:38,760 --> 01:08:40,599
Speaker 1: You're going to Michigan, not an easy place to play,

1268
01:08:40,640 --> 01:08:45,040
Speaker 1: even though they have a lot of change, super talented team,

1269
01:08:45,920 --> 01:08:48,800
Speaker 1: back to back top ten recruiting and transfer classes. They

1270
01:08:48,800 --> 01:08:52,160
Speaker 1: have the SEC physicality, but there's some questions on this roster,

1271
01:08:53,120 --> 01:08:54,439
Speaker 1: but they're going to be in the mix. They are

1272
01:08:54,479 --> 01:08:56,719
Speaker 1: win total ten and a half juice to the under

1273
01:08:57,320 --> 01:09:01,840
Speaker 1: plus let's see plus three fifty in the SEC minus

1274
01:09:01,840 --> 01:09:05,640
Speaker 1: two thirty, favorite to make the college football Playoff. What

1275
01:09:05,640 --> 01:09:06,759
Speaker 1: are your thoughts on the long huns.

1276
01:09:07,560 --> 01:09:09,240
Speaker 2: Well, let's get the off field stuff out of the way.

1277
01:09:09,760 --> 01:09:13,280
Speaker 2: Congrats a special teams coordinator Jeff Banks. He married his

1278
01:09:13,560 --> 01:09:18,480
Speaker 2: longtime fiance, the Pole Assassin, and then she deleted her Instagram,

1279
01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:21,080
Speaker 2: so she announced all intent and deleted it. So cheers,

1280
01:09:21,400 --> 01:09:25,240
Speaker 2: wait to get married, Sark. I'm there for you. I understand,

1281
01:09:25,400 --> 01:09:27,400
Speaker 2: you know, made a public announcement by getting a divorce,

1282
01:09:28,200 --> 01:09:30,519
Speaker 2: been there before. Good luck. We'll see how it plays

1283
01:09:30,520 --> 01:09:32,320
Speaker 2: out on this field. It's a couple off, you know,

1284
01:09:32,439 --> 01:09:34,479
Speaker 2: off field stuff that's going on with these guys and

1285
01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:36,800
Speaker 2: running this team. But I think the overall thing with

1286
01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:40,240
Speaker 2: this team is even everybody down in Texas that writes

1287
01:09:40,280 --> 01:09:43,080
Speaker 2: about this team talks about this team, this team's not

1288
01:09:43,080 --> 01:09:46,280
Speaker 2: as good as it was last year. They are missing

1289
01:09:46,880 --> 01:09:49,120
Speaker 2: some of them heavy talent that got them to the

1290
01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:51,519
Speaker 2: playoff last year. Now they do have ninety percent of

1291
01:09:51,560 --> 01:09:53,559
Speaker 2: experience coming back on the offensive side of the ball.

1292
01:09:53,600 --> 01:09:55,879
Speaker 2: It's the most soliditude deep in the country, maybe outside

1293
01:09:55,880 --> 01:09:59,400
Speaker 2: of Georgia. Even quinn Ewers, who I had an in

1294
01:09:59,439 --> 01:10:01,599
Speaker 2: depth converse with one of our writers here in action.

1295
01:10:01,680 --> 01:10:02,640
Speaker 2: That's helped us out over the year.

1296
01:10:02,720 --> 01:10:02,960
Speaker 1: CJ.

1297
01:10:03,040 --> 01:10:06,760
Speaker 2: Bogl we talked at length about quinn Ewers and he

1298
01:10:06,880 --> 01:10:09,479
Speaker 2: pointed out, go pull up the numbers on the route

1299
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:12,280
Speaker 2: tree because there's certain things that he can't hit. If

1300
01:10:12,320 --> 01:10:16,639
Speaker 2: anything is a timing route, hitches, curls, comebacks, he can't

1301
01:10:16,720 --> 01:10:19,080
Speaker 2: hit it. Boy. We deep dived into those numbers and

1302
01:10:19,120 --> 01:10:22,640
Speaker 2: he was right. So youwers has limitations and some of

1303
01:10:22,640 --> 01:10:24,160
Speaker 2: the work that you know, the numbers that are put

1304
01:10:24,160 --> 01:10:27,000
Speaker 2: out there were really kind of produced by the weapons

1305
01:10:27,040 --> 01:10:29,880
Speaker 2: that he has, not really by quinn Ewers, So keep

1306
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:32,720
Speaker 2: that in mind. Running back CJ. Baxter Jaden Blue were

1307
01:10:32,720 --> 01:10:35,360
Speaker 2: back thousand rushing yards eight touchdowns from last year. Isaiah

1308
01:10:35,360 --> 01:10:37,280
Speaker 2: Bond is going to be the burner. Don't really need

1309
01:10:37,280 --> 01:10:39,160
Speaker 2: to worry about curls and comebacks with him. He's going

1310
01:10:39,200 --> 01:10:42,680
Speaker 2: to be flying down the sideline coming from Alabama. He

1311
01:10:42,720 --> 01:10:44,200
Speaker 2: flipped to the other side of the ball the four

1312
01:10:44,240 --> 01:10:46,599
Speaker 2: two five of peak. Kwudakowski got it working last year.

1313
01:10:46,680 --> 01:10:50,400
Speaker 2: I think maybe the Gary Patterson shadow might raised a

1314
01:10:50,400 --> 01:10:52,479
Speaker 2: flag for him to get it. Get it done. Eighty

1315
01:10:52,479 --> 01:10:55,639
Speaker 2: percent of tackles, nearly all of the PBUs from last

1316
01:10:55,720 --> 01:10:58,720
Speaker 2: year comes back. But have we resolved our issues with

1317
01:10:58,760 --> 01:11:01,080
Speaker 2: the secondary. The secondary that was an issue in the

1318
01:11:01,080 --> 01:11:03,160
Speaker 2: Big Twelve play the secondary that was an issue in

1319
01:11:03,160 --> 01:11:06,400
Speaker 2: the Cultural Wall playoff game with Michael Pennix. Jamie on

1320
01:11:06,439 --> 01:11:08,320
Speaker 2: Cole was great as one of the best corners nationally

1321
01:11:08,320 --> 01:11:12,400
Speaker 2: at San Jose State. He comes in Andrew mccoob. Yeah,

1322
01:11:12,479 --> 01:11:15,120
Speaker 2: big jump. Andrew mccouba comes in from Clemson. And when

1323
01:11:15,160 --> 01:11:17,439
Speaker 2: I saw that in the portal, I thought, man, that's

1324
01:11:17,439 --> 01:11:19,000
Speaker 2: a really good get at safety. And then you go

1325
01:11:19,040 --> 01:11:22,760
Speaker 2: dive into his numbers. It's really replacement level numbers. I mean,

1326
01:11:22,760 --> 01:11:25,120
Speaker 2: there's nothing in his coverage numbers to say that this

1327
01:11:25,240 --> 01:11:28,800
Speaker 2: has fixed their problem. So this secondary is still extremely

1328
01:11:28,880 --> 01:11:32,599
Speaker 2: vulnerable to passing attacks. Then you know, yeah you said

1329
01:11:32,600 --> 01:11:35,559
Speaker 2: tray more of utsa heavy pressure from the edge is

1330
01:11:35,560 --> 01:11:39,959
Speaker 2: still coming. But the not being able to replace Devandre

1331
01:11:40,080 --> 01:11:44,000
Speaker 2: Sweat at the defensive interior is massive. They didn't get

1332
01:11:44,000 --> 01:11:46,599
Speaker 2: anybody out of the portal. They tried, didn't get any

1333
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:48,840
Speaker 2: defensive interior play. They didn't get some defensive interior players,

1334
01:11:48,840 --> 01:11:52,759
Speaker 2: but not like Tovandre Sweat. Look at the schedule, Murphy

1335
01:11:52,880 --> 01:11:56,400
Speaker 2: Murphy too, Yeah, Murphy too, Yeah, I mean they're they're gone.

1336
01:11:56,479 --> 01:11:59,040
Speaker 2: That hurts against run that hurts against the pass that

1337
01:11:59,120 --> 01:12:00,760
Speaker 2: hurts everywhere also.

1338
01:12:00,840 --> 01:12:02,000
Speaker 1: But by the way I mentioned before you get in

1339
01:12:02,040 --> 01:12:04,720
Speaker 1: the schedule, special teams are definitely concerned for me. I

1340
01:12:04,720 --> 01:12:07,120
Speaker 1: mean they lose a lot. They lose like their gunners,

1341
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:12,479
Speaker 1: their returners, their punter. Something to definitely keep in mind

1342
01:12:12,640 --> 01:12:16,599
Speaker 1: for a team that did go three three and one

1343
01:12:17,160 --> 01:12:20,920
Speaker 1: in one possession games last year during the regular season.

1344
01:12:21,200 --> 01:12:23,160
Speaker 1: But gad with the schedule because the one thing I

1345
01:12:23,160 --> 01:12:27,559
Speaker 1: do like about the schedule is that before Tech, before

1346
01:12:27,600 --> 01:12:30,240
Speaker 1: that game at Texas A and M, which is the

1347
01:12:30,280 --> 01:12:33,360
Speaker 1: regular season finale, won't be easy because they I have

1348
01:12:33,400 --> 01:12:35,519
Speaker 1: them favored in eleven games, but they have four tough

1349
01:12:35,560 --> 01:12:38,400
Speaker 1: games at Michigan, at TEXA and M, Georgia and Oklahoma.

1350
01:12:39,200 --> 01:12:42,599
Speaker 1: But the bullish case on Texas making the Collegewall playoff

1351
01:12:43,000 --> 01:12:45,479
Speaker 1: part of the PA if you're gonna make it, is

1352
01:12:46,320 --> 01:12:49,679
Speaker 1: that Texas A and M game. They if they already

1353
01:12:49,680 --> 01:12:53,960
Speaker 1: have ten wins, then they're in already right before that

1354
01:12:54,000 --> 01:12:56,639
Speaker 1: game and they're path to ten wins. Say they even

1355
01:12:56,680 --> 01:12:59,080
Speaker 1: lose to Michigan. I have them a small favorite of Michigan.

1356
01:12:59,640 --> 01:13:03,280
Speaker 1: They're only two true road games, but between Michigan and

1357
01:13:03,320 --> 01:13:09,080
Speaker 1: Texas A and M are Vanderbilt and Arkansas. No disrespect

1358
01:13:09,120 --> 01:13:11,040
Speaker 1: to your Hogs, but I mean, obviously they also have

1359
01:13:11,080 --> 01:13:13,719
Speaker 1: to place Georgia at home Oklahoma in the redorical rivalry.

1360
01:13:13,760 --> 01:13:17,479
Speaker 1: But there's only two sec road games against two of

1361
01:13:17,479 --> 01:13:19,479
Speaker 1: the bottom teams before that Texas A and M game.

1362
01:13:19,520 --> 01:13:22,520
Speaker 1: But ge ahead on the schedule and your overarching thoughts.

1363
01:13:22,320 --> 01:13:24,559
Speaker 2: If you go back historically and look at what Texas

1364
01:13:24,560 --> 01:13:28,160
Speaker 2: has done after Red River, even with sark, it's been bad.

1365
01:13:28,439 --> 01:13:31,800
Speaker 2: Lost to Oklahoma State, survived Iowa State by I think

1366
01:13:31,800 --> 01:13:36,120
Speaker 2: a field goal like it's just never it's always a hangover.

1367
01:13:36,439 --> 01:13:39,240
Speaker 2: It's something they can't get back on track. Do you

1368
01:13:39,280 --> 01:13:44,479
Speaker 2: get after red River this year? Georgia, that's gonna be tough.

1369
01:13:44,920 --> 01:13:46,839
Speaker 2: I mean there are tricky spots I think on the schedule.

1370
01:13:46,880 --> 01:13:49,519
Speaker 2: I mean UTSA comes in after Michigan. I don't expect

1371
01:13:49,720 --> 01:13:52,759
Speaker 2: UTSA to win, but I mean that's after Michigan. Arkansas

1372
01:13:52,840 --> 01:13:54,160
Speaker 2: is going to be off buy when they host them

1373
01:13:54,160 --> 01:13:58,920
Speaker 2: in Fayetteville, potentially an interim coach there. We'll find out.

1374
01:13:59,479 --> 01:14:02,640
Speaker 2: Last game the season against Texas A and M is

1375
01:14:02,680 --> 01:14:04,559
Speaker 2: the I think the best version of Mike Elko's team

1376
01:14:04,640 --> 01:14:07,439
Speaker 2: is going to be that last considering everybody's in full health,

1377
01:14:07,840 --> 01:14:09,559
Speaker 2: I think the best version of the Aggies is going

1378
01:14:09,560 --> 01:14:12,599
Speaker 2: to be in that last game. So when I looked

1379
01:14:12,600 --> 01:14:14,960
Speaker 2: at it, I kind of tweeted had I was about

1380
01:14:15,040 --> 01:14:17,479
Speaker 2: what ten point three on the win total? The under

1381
01:14:17,479 --> 01:14:19,400
Speaker 2: ten and a half has just been getting whaled on

1382
01:14:19,479 --> 01:14:21,000
Speaker 2: the last month in the betting market.

1383
01:14:21,280 --> 01:14:23,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, to the point one is what I project.

1384
01:14:24,080 --> 01:14:26,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jew to me, the juice was just so much

1385
01:14:26,160 --> 01:14:28,040
Speaker 2: out of control that I started looking elsewhere. Then I

1386
01:14:28,040 --> 01:14:31,360
Speaker 2: got to SEC media days and I remembered this team

1387
01:14:31,640 --> 01:14:35,120
Speaker 2: is horrific on offense when it counts three point eight

1388
01:14:35,120 --> 01:14:37,799
Speaker 2: points per trip. Last year there were seventy second offensive

1389
01:14:37,800 --> 01:14:38,679
Speaker 2: finishing drives.

1390
01:14:39,040 --> 01:14:40,040
Speaker 1: Red zone was terrible.

1391
01:14:40,400 --> 01:14:44,160
Speaker 2: Texas Sarks. First year they were fourth in red zone

1392
01:14:44,160 --> 01:14:47,000
Speaker 2: TD efficiency. Last year one hundred and twentieth in red

1393
01:14:47,080 --> 01:14:50,200
Speaker 2: zone TD efficiency. I got a little sidebar with Sark

1394
01:14:50,360 --> 01:14:54,080
Speaker 2: and down in Dallas. So what's going on here? When

1395
01:14:54,120 --> 01:14:56,320
Speaker 2: you don't have Roshawn Johnson and you don't have Jon

1396
01:14:56,439 --> 01:14:58,519
Speaker 2: Robinson and you can't run the roquat the guy at

1397
01:14:58,560 --> 01:15:00,240
Speaker 2: the goal line. It took a lot of stuff out

1398
01:15:00,240 --> 01:15:03,080
Speaker 2: of our playbook at the goal line. Have you identified

1399
01:15:03,120 --> 01:15:05,920
Speaker 2: people on this year squad, Well, we haven't. We think

1400
01:15:05,960 --> 01:15:08,160
Speaker 2: there could be some leaders, but we haven't identified the

1401
01:15:08,160 --> 01:15:11,559
Speaker 2: goal line package. And I'm just like shaking my head. Okay,

1402
01:15:11,960 --> 01:15:14,120
Speaker 2: my bet, because the juice is out of control. In

1403
01:15:14,160 --> 01:15:17,880
Speaker 2: the under alternate team total under nine and a half

1404
01:15:17,960 --> 01:15:21,519
Speaker 2: plus one sixty, it's out there, Georgia game, I'm chalking

1405
01:15:21,560 --> 01:15:23,320
Speaker 2: that up as a loss. They're going to have to

1406
01:15:23,320 --> 01:15:26,080
Speaker 2: trip up elsewhere. Maybe it's Red River, maybe it's Michigan

1407
01:15:26,160 --> 01:15:27,599
Speaker 2: in the open or what's Michigan to do. They're gonna

1408
01:15:27,560 --> 01:15:29,200
Speaker 2: line up and rite it, run right at your new

1409
01:15:29,240 --> 01:15:33,000
Speaker 2: defensive interiors. They're not going to throw the ball. But

1410
01:15:33,760 --> 01:15:35,519
Speaker 2: you know, to me that Texas A and M game,

1411
01:15:35,560 --> 01:15:37,000
Speaker 2: Do I think that the Aggies have a shot in

1412
01:15:37,040 --> 01:15:38,679
Speaker 2: the last game of the season and what is going

1413
01:15:38,720 --> 01:15:41,200
Speaker 2: to be an absolute war when these two rivals who

1414
01:15:41,200 --> 01:15:43,320
Speaker 2: could hook back up. Absolutely would I lay a money

1415
01:15:43,360 --> 01:15:45,040
Speaker 2: line on text Sam in the last game of the season.

1416
01:15:45,160 --> 01:15:47,479
Speaker 2: I would, So why not under nine and a half

1417
01:15:47,520 --> 01:15:51,200
Speaker 2: plus one sixty alternate team total under? I mean, I

1418
01:15:51,240 --> 01:15:53,120
Speaker 2: think there's chances to get out of that, there's chances

1419
01:15:53,120 --> 01:15:54,400
Speaker 2: to hedge that. And if you know what, I may

1420
01:15:54,400 --> 01:15:55,559
Speaker 2: need A and M at the end of the year,

1421
01:15:55,560 --> 01:15:57,360
Speaker 2: but I that's my favorite bet.

1422
01:15:58,040 --> 01:16:00,559
Speaker 1: We will talk A and M on Part two, so

1423
01:16:00,560 --> 01:16:02,760
Speaker 1: that's a good place to end here. And as I

1424
01:16:02,800 --> 01:16:06,920
Speaker 1: mentioned previously, we will recap our favorite bets for the

1425
01:16:07,040 --> 01:16:10,000
Speaker 1: entire conference at the end of part two, and in

1426
01:16:10,080 --> 01:16:14,160
Speaker 1: Part two we'll cover the old sec Wes plus newcomer Oklahoma,

1427
01:16:14,960 --> 01:16:17,000
Speaker 1: So make sure you go check that out now, it'll

1428
01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:21,000
Speaker 1: already be out. Thanks for joining me, Colin, thanks to

1429
01:16:21,120 --> 01:16:23,120
Speaker 1: our producers on the back end. Most sportantly, thanks to

1430
01:16:23,120 --> 01:16:24,879
Speaker 1: all of you for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe

1431
01:16:24,880 --> 01:16:28,160
Speaker 1: on Subscribe subscribe to he a Friend, Tell an Enemy YouTube.

1432
01:16:28,160 --> 01:16:30,720
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1433
01:16:30,720 --> 01:16:32,880
Speaker 1: that subscribe button if you haven't already. Also, if you

1434
01:16:33,000 --> 01:16:35,519
Speaker 1: aren't watching on YouTube, go to our YouTube channel BBOC

1435
01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:37,760
Speaker 1: make sure you hit that subscribe button. Really helps us

1436
01:16:37,760 --> 01:16:40,040
Speaker 1: out by star re use helples out as well, do

1437
01:16:40,120 --> 01:16:42,240
Speaker 1: giveaways all throughout the season. What you gotta do, you

1438
01:16:42,240 --> 01:16:45,720
Speaker 1: can say whatever you want Tennessee and Texas fans. I

1439
01:16:45,720 --> 01:16:48,759
Speaker 1: expect to hear from you Trash and Colin for his takes.

1440
01:16:49,520 --> 01:16:53,439
Speaker 1: But we will be back for Part two, which is

1441
01:16:53,560 --> 01:16:56,400
Speaker 1: out now, so we'll see there for the conclusion of

1442
01:16:56,479 --> 01:16:59,320
Speaker 1: the sec Cheers peace Out.

1443
01:17:07,320 --> 01:17:10,800
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1444
01:17:11,200 --> 01:17:14,040
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1446
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