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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action all right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go in front of the test throwing out,

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Speaker 2: so we're sitting. It's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combining.

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Speaker 1: And you want to back.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am Evan Abrams

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Speaker 1: and today I am joined by the one, the only,

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson to dive into one of the more fun

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Speaker 1: future bets. Just in terms of names. Now, you have

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Speaker 1: to listen to our other award podcast because it's in

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Speaker 1: two sections. We go through Assistant Coach of the Year,

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Speaker 1: Coach of the Year, Offensive, every award in depth on

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Speaker 1: each and Brandon has articles out right now for each

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Speaker 1: of them. But today we are talking about MVP. Brandon,

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Speaker 1: you ready for the season. Let's get this rolling.

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Speaker 3: I'm ready, man. We're like a week out now we

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Speaker 3: actually know that the week one games. We're like thinking

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Speaker 3: about the matchups now, starting to dig into everything. Got

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Speaker 3: the awards pot out That feels good, and you know

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Speaker 3: MVP is the big one. This is the one that.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure it's to be the last time we talk

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Speaker 3: about MVP all season. Now this is the one we're

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Speaker 3: gonna be back at every single week talking about all

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Speaker 3: these names. And you know this is a pet specialty

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Speaker 3: of mind. So I'm excited to get into this today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna go over a bunch of different tiers

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Speaker 1: which will have different names in it. We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: opinions on each, go through some criteria. But just to

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Speaker 1: start off the top here, So MVP last year won

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Speaker 1: by Josh Allen, reigning MVP before that, you have Lamar, Mahomes, Rogers,

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Speaker 1: Rogers again, Lamar again, Mahomes again. You're sending a ferius

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Speaker 1: searching for a theme. You've got one, which is basically

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Speaker 1: to the fact that multiple MVPs have been something we've

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Speaker 1: seen up to Josh winning it last year. So basically,

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Speaker 1: you have a bunch of rules here, so go one

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Speaker 1: by one in terms of criteria, what does the MVP

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Speaker 1: need to kind of get there?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, so let's go through the rules. Some

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Speaker 3: pretty obvious ones here but worth saying them. Rule number one,

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks win MVP. I'm very sorry you had to find

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Speaker 3: out this way, but quarterbacks rule in the NFL, seventeen

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Speaker 3: of eighteen MVPs dating back to the Tom Brady undefeated

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Speaker 3: asterisk season, all quarterbacks. Avan Peterson my guy, the only

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Speaker 3: one that's not a quarterback in them mix. So we're

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Speaker 3: not even going to talk about non quarterbacks today. That's it.

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Speaker 3: That's their shine. They just got. If you are looking

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Speaker 3: for a spot to bet your favorite non quarterback, find

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Speaker 3: another podcast. You're not going to get that bet here.

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Speaker 3: That's the rule. Number two. We love repeat MVP winners.

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Speaker 3: You just said it from the top before Josh Allen

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Speaker 3: to Lamar's two Mahomes, two Rogers. Rogers actually has four

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Speaker 3: the last two decades, and during that stretch there's three

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Speaker 3: Peyton Mannings, there's three Tom Brady's. So let me help

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Speaker 3: you with the math out of the last eighteen MVPs.

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Speaker 3: That's that same stretch we just talked about. Fourteen went

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Speaker 3: to the same five dudes. The same five guys are

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Speaker 3: winning seventy eight percent of the MVPs during that stretch.

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Speaker 3: Peyton even had two.

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Speaker 1: More before that.

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Speaker 3: If you go back a little further, twenty four of

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Speaker 3: the last thirty six MVP, so two thirds of them

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Speaker 3: during you know a young adult's lifetime, go to nine dudes, Lamar, Mahomes, Rogers,

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Speaker 3: Brady Manning, Warner, farv Young Montana. You only need one

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Speaker 3: name for these guys because we know them. These are

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Speaker 3: all timers. Nine guys have won every MVP twenty four

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Speaker 3: to the thirty six last year. So once you'll win,

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Speaker 3: you're in the club and we let you keep winning.

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Speaker 3: Except rule two part not back to back MVPs. Since

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Speaker 3: nineteen sixty, we've only ever had five times where we

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Speaker 3: had it back to back winner only two of this century.

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Speaker 3: Rogers did it not long ago, Peyton did it earlier

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Speaker 3: this century. That's really kind of crazy to think about it.

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Speaker 3: Sixty seven percent of MVPs are going to the same

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Speaker 3: nine dudes, but never twice in a row coming out

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Speaker 3: of the gates. That's not great for Josh Allen, who

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Speaker 3: obviously going to be heavily in our mix today. So

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Speaker 3: so far, Evan, we know it's a quarterback, and we

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Speaker 3: know it's probably favored toward one of these guys we

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Speaker 3: know already Shocker, Mahomes, Alan Lamar, the guys who are

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Speaker 3: leading all the odds. What do you think about these

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Speaker 3: first rules?

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Speaker 1: I think they all make sense. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 1: think we need to talk about skill position players. If

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Speaker 1: Saquan couldn't win it last year, and I took a

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Speaker 1: look back at what Adrian Peterson did the year he

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Speaker 1: woned and what the other quarterbacks did that same season,

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Speaker 1: to me, it just feels like it's too much of

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Speaker 1: a hill to clim I'm especially when you think about

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Speaker 1: what Jamar Chase did and where he finished and he

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Speaker 1: had the triple crown, like it just it feels impossible

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Speaker 1: at this rate. So I think you've knowed that there.

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Speaker 1: I think the repeat thing is a bit strange overall

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Speaker 1: because I think you want to bring in some other names,

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Speaker 1: some people with I'll talk about this a little bit

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Speaker 1: when we go through each tier. But rushing ability, I

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Speaker 1: think is something intriguing when you talk about the new

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Speaker 1: age quarterback, the maybe more statistics for each quarterback, you know,

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Speaker 1: more compiling, and I think being able to look at

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Speaker 1: I mean personally what Lamar did last year, he should

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Speaker 1: have won the award, like I think personally looking at

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Speaker 1: the statistics, kind of looking at the teams. I believed

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Speaker 1: it up into the day and josh One and I said, fine,

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Speaker 1: I get it. I disagree. So I think giving Lamar

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Speaker 1: the award this year kind of interesting. You know, forty

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Speaker 1: one touchdowns and four picks last year didn't have the

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Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns but hasn't been a while, but his rushing

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Speaker 1: yards are there like he had the numbers. So I

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Speaker 1: think you nailed it. But I think this repeat winner

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Speaker 1: is something to keep digging into a little bit well.

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Speaker 3: And I think the back to back winner idea touches

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Speaker 3: on kind of what you just said, like we long

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Speaker 3: for something fresh. You know, we're gonna talk about this

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Speaker 3: every week all season. We gotta have new names in here.

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Speaker 3: So I think that's a big part of why. Okay, Josh,

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Speaker 3: you just want it. But now, what what are you

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Speaker 3: gonna do better than that? How are you gonna impress

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Speaker 3: us even more now? And I think last year you

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Speaker 3: talked about Lamar he was the back to back guy

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Speaker 3: last year if he had won it, And so I

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Speaker 3: think that you're inevitably you don't have to beat everyone else.

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Speaker 3: You have to beat yourself too. You have to beat

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Speaker 3: everyone including you, because you just want it. So I

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Speaker 3: think that's part of the problem. We'll get back to

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Speaker 3: those guys. Rule number three. You kind of allude to this. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna need some stats, some serious statistical production. Last

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Speaker 3: fifteen quarterback winners. Here are the averages four three hundred

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Speaker 3: and seventy passing yards just over forty touchdowns. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: include rushing on that because Lamar Cam Newton. Obviously that

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Speaker 3: kind of skews those numbers about eight interceptions. We're looking

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Speaker 3: at something like two hundred and seventy five passing yards

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Speaker 3: two and a half touchdowns a game. That feels attainable,

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Speaker 3: But that's a lot to do that game after game

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Speaker 3: after game. Eleven out of seventeen of these quarterbacks same

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Speaker 3: span we've been talking about, they hit outlier touchdown rates

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Speaker 3: as passers that season. That's not that we look at

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Speaker 3: very much, but like Aaron Rodgers for his career has

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Speaker 3: been like a five percent touchdown guy six seven some years.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes MVPs hit like nine to ten percent, where just

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Speaker 3: like a huge number of their passes are becoming touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: An average quarterback is maybe two or three. So all

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Speaker 3: that tells me is you're kind of just getting lucky, honestly,

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Speaker 3: or you're getting a little spike where we're getting some

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Speaker 3: extra bonus touchdowns that year, and so kind of pay

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Speaker 3: attention to that rule number four again not a shock here.

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Speaker 3: We need a winner, but like a serious, serious winner.

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Speaker 3: So this is the most important takeaway so far because

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Speaker 3: this is the narrative portion of the award. I think

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks are gonna get credit for the wins and losses

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Speaker 3: since BRADYO seven. Here's the record of the combined quarterback

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Speaker 3: MVPs two hundred and twenty seven wins, forty nine losses.

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Speaker 3: That's eighty two percent win rate. That is a fourteen

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Speaker 3: win pace over a seventeen game season. So you gotta

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Speaker 3: go fourteen and three probably to an MVP, which means

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Speaker 3: MVP is actually a team award, not an individual award,

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Speaker 3: which is very important. And here's how the seeding works out.

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Speaker 3: Out of those seventeen guys thirteen to one seeds, three

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Speaker 3: to two seeds, only one guy in the last seventeen

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Speaker 3: MVPs that was a quarterback winner was not a top

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Speaker 3: two seed. You talked about Lamar. Lamar lost a couple

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Speaker 3: pretty big games last year, I mean not big games

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Speaker 3: like losing to the Raiders, and in teams like that

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Speaker 3: drop to the three seed. I think if he's a

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Speaker 3: top two seed. He's probably a back to back MVP

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Speaker 3: right now. I think it really might be that much

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Speaker 3: of difference. So, yes, we really are just picking the

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Speaker 3: quarterback of the best team. Like for all our fancy

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Speaker 3: advanced stats and all they're arguing all year, there's four guys.

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Speaker 3: There are four top two seeds, probably two top one seeds,

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Speaker 3: and it's probably just gonna be one of those guys

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Speaker 3: at the end of the day.

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Speaker 1: I think my one caveat on this entire thing is

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Speaker 1: something I talked about when we did I believe it

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Speaker 1: was coaching Coach of the Year awards. Is kind of

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Speaker 1: like when was the last time you know, the MVP

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Speaker 1: usually is on a team that wins fourteen to fifteen game,

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Speaker 1: especially with this extended schedule, they most likely get the

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Speaker 1: one seed. It doesn't usually get the two seeds. So

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Speaker 1: I think trying to compare some of these odds for Okay,

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Speaker 1: if he's going to win MVP, you assume they're going

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Speaker 1: to get the one seed, Well, what's the team's odds

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Speaker 1: to get the one seed? And start like making some

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Speaker 1: of these comparisons, because again, I really do believe what

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Speaker 1: you're saying here, which is quarterback wins award best team

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Speaker 1: in league, and aside from Matt it's two or three

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Speaker 1: guys at the end of the season. So I think

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Speaker 1: the correlation is probably stronger than ever and that's why

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Speaker 1: we're not talking about these skill position players. So I

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Speaker 1: think you nailed it. I mean in terms of some

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Speaker 1: of the stats, and I'll just throw one at you

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Speaker 1: right now. Recently we've seen with these repeat winners lower odds.

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Speaker 1: Last four winners fourteen to one or shorter. Prior to that,

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Speaker 1: between twenty fifteen and twenty twenty five of six winners

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Speaker 1: were thirty to one or longer. So I think someone

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Speaker 1: out of the back, someone like Jayden Daniels, is still

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Speaker 1: only ten to one or so, and so you would

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Speaker 1: need Washington to win probably a ton of games for

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Speaker 1: him to be considered. And we'll talk about him in

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Speaker 1: a little bit. But to me, it's low odds to

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Speaker 1: win the super Bowl. It's high ish win total. I

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Speaker 1: have here thirty of the thirty seven MVP winners in

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety thirty to one odds or shorter to win

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl innten the regular season, which makes complete sense.

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Speaker 1: But I think you nailed it in terms of the rules.

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Speaker 1: I think the most interesting thing is stats and what

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Speaker 1: you think is being looked at. So what do you

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Speaker 1: think about advanced metrics?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so advanced metrics. That's our final rule number five.

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Speaker 3: Advanced metrics are helpful in the season. So they're a

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Speaker 3: great MVP predictor as the season goes on, not necessarily

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Speaker 3: from last year. Each year is its own animal. You're

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Speaker 3: getting new weapons, new offensive line, new defense, all that

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Speaker 3: kind of stuff. So a thing I'll watch during the

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Speaker 3: season and whatever side you're gonna use is I like

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Speaker 3: RBSDM running backs don't matter, is what that stands for,

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Speaker 3: RBSDM dot com use EPA that's for points and CPOE

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Speaker 3: which is for completion percentage over expectation. Look at those stats,

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Speaker 3: all the acronyms and letters. Since Adrian Peterson won the

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Speaker 3: one time, everyone in that makes since then, so all

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Speaker 3: the quarterback winners twelve guys, nine of the twelve have

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Speaker 3: been top top two in the NFL in EPA plus

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Speaker 3: completion over expected So nine of the twelve, all but

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Speaker 3: three of them and over half are number one in

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Speaker 3: that stat in the season that they won. And if

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Speaker 3: you look at just EPA, ten of the twelve are

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Speaker 3: top two in EPA per play for the season, two

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Speaker 3: thirds of them are number one. So as the season

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Speaker 3: goes on, and these things take a while to stabilize

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Speaker 3: a little bit because you get you know, they're not

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Speaker 3: factoring in a lot of strength to schedule and that

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Speaker 3: sort of thing. Things even out over time. But by

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Speaker 3: like week six, week eight, mid season, we're pretty pretty

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Speaker 3: much getting a real picture of who the top quarterbacks are.

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Speaker 3: In a weird way. We're gonna keep talking about this

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Speaker 3: for a bunch more minutes now and go through all

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Speaker 3: these names. It kind of feels like we've collectively made

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Speaker 3: the MVP race boring, Like, well, okay, we made all

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Speaker 3: the rules. You gotta win, and you gotta have the stats,

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Speaker 3: and now you gotta have the advanced stats too, and

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Speaker 3: you gotta be top three here, and you gotta have

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Speaker 3: these two things. We've kind of made a boring so

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Speaker 3: it's like it only can be these three or four guys. Now,

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Speaker 3: boring is not fun, but boring is fun for betters

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Speaker 3: because then we can predict the boring and profit off

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Speaker 3: of it. So with the advanced stats, it does change

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Speaker 3: year to year, but I do think just off the top,

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Speaker 3: this is a warning sign for a few names that

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Speaker 3: we're gonna get back to. But these guys not only

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Speaker 3: didn't finish top two in those stats, they were pretty

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Speaker 3: comfortably outside the top ten. So that's a big jump

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Speaker 3: to go from twelfth or fifteenth, or in some cases

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Speaker 3: outside the top twenty all the way to top two.

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Speaker 3: Here's some names Justin Herbert, even in his big year,

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Speaker 3: not into the top ten. Caler Murray, Matt Stafford. Not

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Speaker 3: guys that are getting in the top ten year after

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Speaker 3: year using these metrics. Trevor Lawrence not close. CJ. Stroud

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Speaker 3: outside the top twenty five, and a couple of these things.

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Speaker 3: So again, last year is not necessarily predictive. You can

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Speaker 3: make a leap, but you're leaping from somewhere. So I

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Speaker 3: think that that's a good one to point out to

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Speaker 3: keep an eye on during the season. So kind of

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Speaker 3: in summary on these rules, here's what we need. We

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Speaker 3: need a quarterback that you can win thirteen games, make

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Speaker 3: a run at the one seed. Got to at least

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Speaker 3: be in play there, I think, and you'd have a

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Speaker 3: real shot at like forty five hundred yards and forty touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: And I only come back to the betting history you

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Speaker 3: talked abouts. I think it's really interesting. So from my notes,

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Speaker 3: seven of the last ten MVPs started the season plus

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Speaker 3: eleven hundred longer. So not Josh Allen, he was nine

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Speaker 3: to one last season. But before that group, with all

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Speaker 3: these kind of relative long shots, only one of six

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Speaker 3: started longer than plus eight hundred. So we had this

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Speaker 3: stretch where just the favorites we knew we're winning. And

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Speaker 3: then we had Arian Peterson, and we had Matt Ryan,

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Speaker 3: and we had Cam Newton and the first Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 3: for that matter, where they're pretty long odds out of

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Speaker 3: left field. Now we're kind of back to this favoritey range.

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Speaker 3: I have a theory. My theory is we talked about

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Speaker 3: the repeat quarterbacks and the same guys winning. I don't

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Speaker 3: know if we like. For a while, my theory was,

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Speaker 3: I think the long shots are winning, don't bet the favorites.

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Speaker 3: That's not my theory anymore because the favorites are winning now,

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Speaker 3: so we're trying to figure this out. My apothesis of

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Speaker 3: this with the favorites were winning because Tom Brady existed

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Speaker 3: and Peyton Manning existed, and they existed at the same time,

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Speaker 3: and so they won all the MVPs for a while.

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Speaker 3: Then Tom Brady and Peyton Manning stopped being MVPs because

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Speaker 3: father time rules all. So we had this kind of

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Speaker 3: gap between Brady and Peyton. But now we have our

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Speaker 3: new version of Brady and Peyton. Now we've got Mahomes

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Speaker 3: and Alan and Lamar, and I think maybe those guys

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Speaker 3: are just going to keep winning all the MVPs like

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Speaker 3: they have been. Rogers is kind of the one guy

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Speaker 3: that sort of spans the mix, and so he got

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Speaker 3: a couple in between. But maybe we never really got

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Speaker 3: a time of long shots as much as we've had

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Speaker 3: a little window of time between the one generation of

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Speaker 3: Superstar Hall of Famers and the next generation. I kind

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Speaker 3: of think we might just be back to the favorites

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Speaker 3: winning right now. What do you think about that theory

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Speaker 3: and any other thoughts on the betting odds here.

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Speaker 1: I just think the biggest issue is trying to find

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Speaker 1: someone outside of those top seven quarterbacks or so in

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Speaker 1: the odds that you think has the criteria to beat

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Speaker 1: all seven of them, right, because that's what you're betting

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Speaker 1: into right now. Yeah, that is the issue is is

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Speaker 1: you're not trying to beat one of them, You're not

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Speaker 1: trying to be two of them, You're trying to beat

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Speaker 1: all of them. So you really need a season where

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Speaker 1: a bunch of quarterbacks go on the wayside for different

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Speaker 1: reasons to kind of take them out of the mix.

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Speaker 1: When you look at Lamar's career, he has two years

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Speaker 1: where he just doesn't play enough games to get considered,

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Speaker 1: And I think that's kind of what you need for

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna bring up like a Jery Goff sitting

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Speaker 1: at thirty five to one, like they won fifteen games

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Speaker 1: last year. He had a pretty incredible season. He's gonna

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Speaker 1: have to do something to trump that or have enough

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Speaker 1: people get out of his way to get there. And

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Speaker 1: that feels like something that's still longer than thirty five

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Speaker 1: to one in my eyes, which is yeah, that's it.

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Speaker 3: Is that like you need if you're a goth or

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Speaker 3: somebody in that range. You can't beat all those guys.

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Speaker 3: You can't that we know this about you. You cannot

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Speaker 3: beat them by yourself. They have to beat themselves. They

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Speaker 3: either have to lose games and get eliminated, or get

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Speaker 3: hurt and get eliminated, or throw interceptions get eliminated. But

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Speaker 3: like Jared Goff can't beat all these top seven guys.

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Speaker 3: He has to have one of them get knocked out

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Speaker 3: for this reason, one for that reason, one for that reason.

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Speaker 3: And now there's only like two left and one of

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Speaker 3: them has not had that great of a season, and

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Speaker 3: Mahomes's numbers are down, and now we make the golf

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Speaker 3: argument at fifteen and two. It's like, you have to

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Speaker 3: be great, but we have to just we almost like

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Speaker 3: those names. We don't get to them till halfway through

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Speaker 3: the season where it's like, well, all the guys we

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Speaker 3: thought we're gonna win aren't actually in this anymore. So

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Speaker 3: who else is out there? And it's kind of where

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Speaker 3: we've gotten to with like the McCaffrey MVP conversation or

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Speaker 3: the Saquon one, where it's like, gee, whizz, these sure

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Speaker 3: are some pretty good numbers and we don't really have

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Speaker 3: a clear front runner yet. Maybe we should look out here,

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Speaker 3: but lo and behold. With so many good great quarterbacks,

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Speaker 3: usually they don't all knock themselves out and then we

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Speaker 3: just get somebody whoever's the last one's standing maybe.

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Speaker 1: Before we move forward here. The only two things I

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Speaker 1: noted when doing my research kind of into the award,

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Speaker 1: this seems to be an AFC award. I mean, obviously

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Speaker 1: there's different times where Matt Ryan and Cam Newton and

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Speaker 1: like certain quarterback Aaron Rodgers for example, kind of stay

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Speaker 1: out from the NFC. But aside from that, it feels like,

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Speaker 1: I mean, even going back to Steve McNair rich gannon like,

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Speaker 1: it seems like, at least in recent history, last twenty

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Speaker 1: plus years, the AFC seems to have the better quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: that are rising to the top. The one that we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about a little bit is Burrow, which

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Speaker 1: is probably the best quarterback in the conference to not

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Speaker 1: win the award, but again he's six to one and

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Speaker 1: kind of priced like he should, which makes it a

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Speaker 1: little difficult. And the last thing I'll say, I think

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Speaker 1: it's interesting with Mahomes, Lamar, and Josh for their next

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Speaker 1: MVP award feels a little monumental. For Mahomes and Lamar

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Speaker 1: it would be their third, which definitely puts them on

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Speaker 1: a different list. And for Josh this year would be

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Speaker 1: back to back, which puts him on a completely different

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Speaker 1: list as well. So I don't know if that goes

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Speaker 1: into where the voting will end up going for those

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Speaker 1: three guys, but it is what feels like a monumental

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Speaker 1: decision to give any of those three of the award

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Speaker 1: this year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with that. You know, the AFC thing

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Speaker 3: might just come down to, like, Okay, well, who are

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Speaker 3: the names we've been talking about Man Brady, Josh, Lamar Patrick. Oh,

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Speaker 3: turns out they'll play in the AFC. That's the thread.

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Speaker 3: Play in the AFC as one of those five all

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Speaker 3: time quarterbacks. You win MVP's So yeah, So here's what

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Speaker 3: I do today. You talked about this. We're doing it

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Speaker 3: in tiers because it fits what we've been doing with

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Speaker 3: these other ones. So we're not talking about running backs

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Speaker 3: and receivers. Find another podcast for that, and with respect,

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Speaker 3: we're not talking about these names either. Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers,

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Speaker 3: Drake may Panix, Tua Darnold. If you want to make

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Speaker 3: a case, make a case. I don't think get that

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Speaker 3: far down the list. I've narrowed the field to eighteen

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks for US, so eighteen is still plenty. We're over

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Speaker 3: half the league. We're gonna go reverse order by tiers

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Speaker 3: as all of them, kind of grouping guys together. I've

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Speaker 3: got a name for the tier that Evan will introduce

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Speaker 3: with us, and I'm kind of putting these giving you

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Speaker 3: like a percentage chance in each tier as well, and

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Speaker 3: we'll kind of talk about the tiers along the way.

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Speaker 3: Which bets are the worst bets in each spot, which

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Speaker 3: ones are playable if you like them, and then of

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Speaker 3: course I'll give best bets at the end. So Evan

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Speaker 3: tell us about tier five.

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Speaker 1: All right, drum roll Tier five, fourteen and three on

403
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Speaker 1: a great team and all the real candidates canceled each

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Speaker 1: other out, So at the top you've got Baker Mayfield

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Speaker 1: at thirty five to one, so you could start there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So these are the guys that this is what

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Speaker 3: we just talked about. These are the Jared Goffs. Jared

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Speaker 3: goth Is in this tier as well. So these are

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Speaker 3: the dudes that we don't talk about you until the

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Speaker 3: middle of the season. Really, this is when everything else

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Speaker 3: crumbled around you. And all the guys that we just said,

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Speaker 3: all the Lamars, josh As Patrick's, they're the ones who've

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Speaker 3: cleared out the way. And I was like, oh no,

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Speaker 3: the Buccaneers are eight and two right now. You know

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Speaker 3: who's playing good football that Baker Mayfield. And now we

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Speaker 3: can't start to have that conversation. So that's what this

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Speaker 3: tier is about. So there are five names in this group.

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Speaker 3: We're going in each tier nine order of odds or

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Speaker 3: alphabet or anything else. The first names up are the

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Speaker 3: names I think are the best candidates in the group

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Speaker 3: to win, not necessarily the best to bet Baker. I

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Speaker 3: think it would be fair to say, hey, why is

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Speaker 3: Baker in this group? Hasn't he been a top ten

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Speaker 3: quarterback the last couple of years already? Hasn't he had

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Speaker 3: the numbers? I think that that's fair. I'll go the

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Speaker 3: other direction, though, and say this is not the moment

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Speaker 3: to bet on a Baker MVP ticket. Kristin Wurfs is out.

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Speaker 3: We don't know when he's gonna play. We've seen how

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Speaker 3: damaging it is to lose that left tackle. It hurts

430
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 3: the whole line. Suddenly Baker is losing his blindside protector,

431
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 3: he doesn't have his receivers. His two of his top

432
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: four are injured. So everything is feeling worse. It's crumbling

433
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 3: around him. He's missing Liam Cohen and Dave Canalis, the

434
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 3: last weapons coordinators. So what about Josh Grizzard? What happens

435
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 3: with him? The new play caller. It's a really tough

436
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 3: schedule out of the gates. We've talked about that. I

437
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 3: think the Bucks have like a real shot to start

438
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,159
Speaker 3: two and five in that range.

439
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:03,360
Speaker 1: Now.

440
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 3: I think they could still win the division after that

441
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 3: because the NFC South is terrible. But if you lose

442
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 3: five games, you're out, Like you're not winning MVP, you're

443
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 3: pretty much cooked already, and that's halfway through the season.

444
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 3: If you like Baker, you can't buy right now, not

445
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 3: with Worf's out and all the receivers out and Newgris

446
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 3: are in a tough schedules start out. You got to

447
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 3: look for your moment too. This is not the moment,

448
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: and I think there was a moment maybe six weeks

449
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 3: ago before all the injuries, where the Bucks were kind

450
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 3: of getting some hipster buzz right like they were the team, like,

451
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 3: you know, who could win the NFC. And I think

452
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 3: then Baker might have been interesting MVP candidate, But his

453
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 3: odds now have reflected falling off a little bit, and

454
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,360
Speaker 3: I think you just not the right guy to come

455
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,880
Speaker 3: to in this tier. So he's effectively, well not quite eighteenth,

456
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 3: because we've got a few other names here, but that's

457
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 3: what I think about Baker Mayfield.

458
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 1: I want to believe in Baker, but winning is hard here,

459
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 1: And that's my real quote next to his name, because

460
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 1: I just don't see it getting to the thirteen mark

461
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 1: or so that we need. I could see them winning

462
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 1: the division, I just don't think they're gonna get high

463
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 1: enough to do it. Last year forty five hundred yards,

464
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 1: forty one touchdowns, sixteen interceptions. He's got to get that

465
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 1: under ten to even be considered. So I think that's

466
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 1: the question. And again, all those issues kind of bump

467
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 1: me out for him. So you can keep going here.

468
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,959
Speaker 1: But we've got jj McCarthy next at seventy five to

469
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: one and Caleb Williams at thirty seven to one, and

470
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 1: THIN could probably group them together.

471
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 3: So I'm actually gonna I'm gonna twist a little bit here,

472
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go see the other two names and

473
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 3: then group it a little differently. So McCarthy, Caleb Williams,

474
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 3: bone necks sixty to one. Jared got forty to one,

475
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna leave McCarthy off for a second look

476
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 3: at the other three. I think the other three fit

477
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: firmly into this mix of like, Okay, I don't know

478
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: if we really think you're the MVP, but you are

479
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 3: the one seed now, your team is really good. You're

480
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 3: fifteen and two or fourteen and three. I guess we'd

481
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 3: need to call you a possible MVP candy like we

482
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 3: saw that with Golf last year, we saw with Party

483
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 3: the year before. We've seen for stretches like to at

484
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 3: Taga Bailoa, these guys that we don't necessarily quite know

485
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 3: if we think you're that guy, but we sort of

486
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 3: have to pretend like you are for a while. And

487
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,880
Speaker 3: you're in this great system, so the event's metrics are there.

488
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 3: Party was number one in EPA and all the different

489
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 3: metrics the two years ago, So I think Nicks for

490
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 3: right now. Frankly, including him in this list is like

491
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 3: the nicest thing I've ever said about bow Nix. So

492
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 3: congrats about next today, I'm still not buying it. I

493
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 3: don't see the ceiling there for MVP. They don't have

494
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 3: great weapons. I think it's more of a gimmick offense.

495
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 3: At Fantasy Flex event this weekend, bow Knicks got drafted

496
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 3: two spots after Patrick Mahomes and I just about threw up, like,

497
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 3: how are we putting these two that close together. But

498
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 3: if the defense is really awesome again, maybe even better.

499
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 3: And if he beats Mahomes in the division and then

500
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 3: beats Lamar and john gets the one seed, we're going

501
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 3: to have to have the bownex conversation. I've been minting

502
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,639
Speaker 3: it now, but there's no way I'm gonna tell you

503
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 3: to bet on it. And again, these guys in this tier,

504
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 3: I'm putting at one percent. That's one hundred to one odds.

505
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 3: So even at sixty to one, you're still not gonna

506
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 3: sell me on a bon next ticket. Jared Goff, I

507
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 3: don't think there's a lot to say about him. This

508
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 3: is not the moment. You don't bet Jared Goff. After

509
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 3: Ben Johnson leaves, after you lose two offensive linemen. Last

510
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 3: year was the moment, and he didn't get there. Anyways,

511
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 3: this is not the moment. Caleb Williams. Can he be better?

512
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 3: Jared Goff? He's got the lineman, now he's got Ben Johnson.

513
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 3: Now could he get the golf stats last three years

514
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 3: with Ben Johnson forty five hundred yards and thirty two touchdowns,

515
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: that's the pace. What if he starts there but add

516
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 3: some Caleb Williams magic as a number one pick. If

517
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 3: we haven't soured on him yet, like we kind of

518
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 3: have with Goff. What if we believe a little bit

519
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 3: and the Bears are as good as Bear's eyeld Folks

520
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 3: like me hope that they can be. Could maybe he

521
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 3: get into the mix. I think it's optimistic, Like I

522
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 3: think eventually in a year or two, maybe we get there.

523
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,479
Speaker 3: But we know the Bear's schedule is brutal. These are

524
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 3: the name, Like one of these names and we'll get

525
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 3: back to mcarthen a second. One of them is going

526
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 3: to be quote in the conversation at some point this year,

527
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 3: But in the conversation doesn't win you any money unless

528
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 3: you can cash out. So I think we're kind of

529
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 3: chasing steam on these guys. What do you think about Bonix,

530
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 3: Jared Goff or Caleb Williams?

531
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: All right, one by one U B. Nix's issue is

532
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 1: going to be how good his defense is. I looked back,

533
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 1: and usually you need a decently porous defense at least

534
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 1: in terms of like simple metrics to kind of give

535
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 1: you the opportunity. I just don't think it's there, So

536
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: I'm not you know, a gung ho about the price

537
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 1: at sixty to one. I agree it should be longer.

538
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: I guess my question with Caleb is, and this is

539
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 1: a take your pick, what ticket would you rather have

540
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,199
Speaker 1: entering the season, Baker Mayfield or Caleb Williams about the

541
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: same price. I mean, I would probably have Baker even

542
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: with the issues, but I think Caleb I would want

543
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 1: to be longer. And it's not there because of the

544
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 1: pedigree the Ben Johnson like, there's certain things that have

545
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: him set up to possibly win the award. And I

546
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 1: know you love the Bears, but I still think, based

547
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 1: off of what we've seen, the odds should be longer

548
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 1: and then goff. My only question there is I think

549
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 1: there's a bad defense, there's a lot of offense, But

550
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 1: what does he have to do we talked about earlier

551
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: fifteen wins last year, says he needs to throw for

552
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: five thousand yards, Like, what is the benchmark that even

553
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: gets him into this conversation after such a ridiculous season?

554
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: Those are That's my problem there?

555
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that that makes sense, all right,

556
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 3: last name of this tier. These guys aren't gonna win,

557
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 3: so we need to dwell long. But let him make

558
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 3: a real case and not a homer one for JK. McCarthy,

559
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: who has yet to play an NFL game. Let's start there.

560
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 3: But here's why J. McCarthy could be in the MV conversation. Eventually,

561
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 3: Minnesota ranked top eight offense and defense in my rankings.

562
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 3: They're only one of four teams I believe to do that,

563
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 3: and they did that despite McCarthy ranking bottom ten in

564
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 3: my quarterbacks. This is not factoring in optimism. This is

565
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 3: factoring in a below average quarterback, kind of effectively where

566
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 3: Sam Donald started last season. If I'm wrong, if KOC

567
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 3: and McCarthy are good together, if he's even a league

568
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 3: average quarterback, I think this suddenly leaps in my numbers

569
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 3: to a top three offense and the number one team

570
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 3: in the NFC. So we talked about this with the

571
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 3: offense rankings. I think Minnesota has been kind of almost

572
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 3: at their floor in the last couple of seasons. The

573
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 3: last three seasons under Koc. We've had one of those

574
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 3: seasons with Sam Donald the entire year where they win

575
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 3: fourteen games, but Donald was the backup and a guy

576
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 3: that we've long since given up for dead. A previous season.

577
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 3: They've got multiple games that quarterback from Nick Mullins and

578
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 3: Josh Dobbs and Jaron Hall and despite that, and look,

579
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 3: the good season is Kirk Cousins, that's the good quarterback season.

580
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: But across three KOC seasons, over half of the games

581
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 3: have been started by not the quarterback one on the team.

582
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 3: Despite all that, Minnesota has ranked top six and passing

583
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 3: yards all three KOC seasons and top six in passing

584
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 3: touchdowns all three seasons, ravaging forty four hundred thirty two

585
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 3: touchdowns at least thirty scorers in all three. If you

586
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 3: cobble all those quarterbacks together. Okay, so we're not looking

587
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 3: for JJ McCarthy to be Patrick Mahomes. What if he's

588
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 3: something between Darnald and Kirk Cousins, or maybe even slightly

589
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 3: better than Cousins, which is not nothing but not an

590
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 3: impossible bar. If we're starting at forty four hundred and

591
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 3: thirty two, could we get to five thousand yards? Could

592
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 3: we get to forty scores? That's suddenly not so Atlantish.

593
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 3: And don't forget the Vikings won thirteen games and fourteen

594
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 3: games and two of those seasons with a low bar quarterback.

595
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: So I actually was prepared a couple weeks ago and

596
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 3: I started this to come in and make an actual

597
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 3: bet on JJ McCarthy for MVP, like a quarter unit.

598
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: But at the time he was one hundred and fifty

599
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 3: to one. I think he's like one to two percent likely,

600
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 3: but one hundred and fifty to one that's a good bet.

601
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 3: Now he's down to seventy five to one, which I

602
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 3: still think is a fair price. If you're a Vikings fan,

603
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 3: I can't begrudge you for grabbing this ticket. I think

604
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 3: that there's a touch of value here. I will say

605
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 3: the schedule is pretty tough through week seven. Nobody thinks

606
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 3: McCarthy's MVP right now. I don't think he's gonna suddenly

607
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 3: like be a favorite overnight. We would know Jordan Addison

608
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 3: is out early. It's gonna be tough going. He's not

609
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 3: played in the NFL yet. But this is a name that, like,

610
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 3: if you would a list eighteen names we're talking about today,

611
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 3: no one would expect JJ McCarthy to be in the mix.

612
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 3: I think there's a path where he belongs into this

613
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 3: group and has some real upside if the system is

614
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 3: as good as it looks. That's my case for JJ McCarthy.

615
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, Addison's interesting because obviously it's detrimental, but if

616
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 1: he overcomes it and looks good, I mean, you know,

617
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: narratives and narratives. The only question I have is does

618
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: Minnesota need to win like fourteen games for him to

619
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: be even considered? Right? I mean that feels like a

620
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 1: large hill, But again, seventy five to one, so is

621
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: what it is. Are you ready?

622
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, everybody here has to win fourteen games to be considered.

623
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 3: That's basically what we're still.

624
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 1: But that's but but I'm even comparing it to last season,

625
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 1: being like, you probably have to do just as good

626
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 1: or better you had Sam Darnold, So you know, all

627
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: the comparisons, all right, Tier four, the numbers and flash

628
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: could be there, but not the teammates, which is a

629
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: bit of a letdown, but probably why these guys are

630
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: on this list. At the top is Dak Prescott about

631
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: forty to one. He was second in MVP in twenty

632
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 1: three behind Lamar, which I think probably says something about

633
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 1: expectations and what you might look for in him. So

634
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: talk to me about Dak. Yeah.

635
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna give you all four names here together

636
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 3: because I think these names kind of belong talking about together.

637
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 3: So Dak forty to one, Matt Stafford forty to one,

638
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert twenty two to one, and then Kyler Murray

639
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 3: fifty five to one. So I think these guys are

640
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 3: all like two to three percent likely. That should mean

641
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 3: around thirty five or fifty to one. That means you're

642
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 3: off the list pretty much, so Dak. I don't think

643
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 3: Dak has the media respect at this point. He's been

644
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 3: terrible in the playoffs. He honestly was awful last year.

645
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 3: He was hurt, so it shouldn't matter as much and

646
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 3: he'll bounce back.

647
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: We know.

648
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 3: I'm pretty high on Dak and pretty consensus, but I

649
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 3: think it's gonna be hard for him to win folks over.

650
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 3: They have a great run game, the O line is worse.

651
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 3: We don't necessarily want to have a reason to believe

652
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 3: in the Shotenheimer's system. I do think there's a world

653
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 3: where Dak could maybe be a poor man's Joe Burrow

654
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 3: where everything else is so bad and he's chucking and

655
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 3: now has George Pickens with Ceedee Lamb and he just

656
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,879
Speaker 3: has some great stats. But I don't know that that's

657
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 3: the world you want, because I'm not sure you're winning MVP.

658
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 3: That way, your team's not going to come through for you.

659
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 3: So that's kind of the story with this tier is

660
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 3: is your team good enough? It's a team award. Justin

661
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 3: Herbert is a great case for that. Where Herbert last year,

662
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,839
Speaker 3: even with the leap, he made still outside the top

663
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 3: ten in some of those advanced metrics, and he's not

664
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 3: gonna get much help here. Ray Shaun Slater is out,

665
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 3: the offensive line drops from top ten to bottom ten,

666
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 3: the defense is still pretty questionable. On talent. We don't

667
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 3: love Greg Roman the offensive corner. That's not gonna make

668
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 3: Herbert look that good. I don't think that Herbert is

669
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 3: eliminated from future MVPs, but this doesn't seem like the

670
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 3: time to beat on him. In fact, they played Chiefs

671
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 3: week one Friday night, then they play the whole division

672
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 3: right off the bat, so coming out international travel. Then

673
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 3: they play the next week in the division, then go

674
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 3: off of short rest the next one. So you might

675
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 3: be one in two zero and three in the division

676
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 3: starting out, and you're basically dead on MVP ticket at

677
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 3: that point. So twenty two to one, that's betting on

678
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert's talent, not his situation. That is not a

679
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 3: good way to do it. Stafford loved the idea two

680
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 3: months ago. Now he's hurt and Eleric Jackson is hurt,

681
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 3: and it's just too tenuous of an injury situation there

682
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 3: to get too excited. So again, not great defense. There

683
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 3: probably for me, the worst team in the division right now.

684
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 3: I can't buy you as an MVP candidate if you

685
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 3: have to win thirteen fourteen games and I just don't

686
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 3: see the team profile. Let me talk about Kyler Murray

687
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 3: and I'll throw it back to you. I think Kyler,

688
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 3: of these four you can make a case for. I'm

689
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 3: gonna give you permission to bet caller Murray at fifty

690
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 3: five to one. He's never done it over a full season.

691
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 3: But he's also never really stayed healthy over full season,

692
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 3: so immediately we're betting on that. I don't love it.

693
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 3: I don't love betting in Keller's health. I ain't kind

694
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 3: of given up on him. But the whole team is

695
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 3: trending up. The offense the defense are kind of both

696
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 3: fringe top ten and both moving toward the right direction.

697
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 3: If somebody told you the Cardinals win twelve games this year,

698
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 3: I think he'd be like, all right, yeah, good for

699
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 3: the Cardinals. They're in the playoffs. Let's see how they do. Okay,

700
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 3: how about one or two more wins. If you can

701
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 3: win twelve, you can win thirteen or fourteen. And we

702
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 3: know Kyler is gonna run around and do crazy stuff

703
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 3: and have some like Heisman MVP type moments. This talkt

704
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 3: is gonna run more this year, which helps the numbers

705
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 3: and the stats. It fits Kenneth the Lamar Jackson type MVP.

706
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,439
Speaker 3: And if you want Kyler, you gotta buy it now

707
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 3: because here's the schedule. Saints Panthers, Titans, Colts are for

708
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 3: the first five games. We've seen a season a couple

709
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 3: of years ago where Kyler was among the MVP favorites

710
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 3: mid season, then it got hurt because he's tiny and

711
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 3: he runs a lot, and then it didn't go well.

712
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 3: So we still go to do the whole eighteen games.

713
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 3: I think there's a world where Kyler make sense here.

714
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 3: And again I'm putting this group in the two to

715
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:07,399
Speaker 3: three percent likely he's fifty five to one. That's about

716
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 3: in that range. So if you want to bet he's

717
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 3: the best bet, we've gotten two so far.

718
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:17,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think with Kyler, it's an advisement to invest. Now.

719
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 1: Get here's what you probably should do. Split your bet

720
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 1: into two tickets. Get ready to cash out the first

721
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: bet when he inevitably has a great start to the season,

722
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 1: he beats a bunch of teams he should in Arizona

723
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,320
Speaker 1: is somewhat top two in the NFC West. You're liking

724
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 1: the direction, and then the inevitable second half of his

725
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 1: season comes, which seems to happen every single year of

726
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: his career. He's also going to have to do things

727
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 1: he's never done. He's never won ten games, he's never

728
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 1: thrown twenty seven passing touchdowns, he's never thrown for four

729
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 1: thousand yards. At that point, it's like, Okay, what does

730
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: he actually have to do to get considered for this award? Like,

731
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 1: does five hundred rushing yards, rushing yards and five rushing

732
00:37:57,400 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 1: touchdowns matter if you don't have the other stuff? Probably not.

733
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 1: So I think buying a ticket and maybe you can

734
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,720
Speaker 1: get higher in fifty five to one that inevitably looks

735
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 1: at about thirty five to one or thirty to one

736
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: in a few weeks, and then from there goes to

737
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one after some sort of

738
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: you know, mishap in Arizona is probably the direction this goes.

739
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: So I like it as like an initial investment. And

740
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: the only thing I'll say about Dak he his numbers

741
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: could be crazy this year based off what the defense

742
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 1: looks like, based off adding pickens, Like, I can understand

743
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 1: a world where he throws a ton of passing touchdowns

744
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 1: and maybe somehow looks better than the forty five hundred yards,

745
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 1: thirty six touchdowns and nine picks he had when he

746
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 1: was in the race with Lamar. I could see it.

747
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 1: But the question you have to ask yourself is like,

748
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: can Dallas Dallas gonna win eleven games? You'd be like, wow,

749
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 1: they had a crazy season. I don't see it getting

750
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 1: higher than that. So can he win with that mark?

751
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: I'm not sure?

752
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, and that's why I'm going to give

753
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,359
Speaker 3: you now two more names that do belong in this tier.

754
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 3: But we held him back. I think this is the

755
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 3: more the three percent than the two percent. But I'm

756
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,399
Speaker 3: knocking these names out. We're not even to the top

757
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 3: seven yet, and we're gonna surprise and hurt some feelings

758
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 3: now because these are the guys that are gonna get

759
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 3: the stats and the flash, but not the teammates and

760
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 3: the wins. Joe Burrow plus six fifty Jane Daniels plus

761
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 3: one thousand. These are guys that are among the MVP favorites.

762
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 3: We talk about a top four quarterback MVP favorites that

763
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 3: includes Joe Burrow, it should not include Joe Burrow. These

764
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 3: to me are the two worst MVP bets on the

765
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 3: board right now. Let me make the case. Jane Daniels,

766
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 3: obviously sophomore leap is the hope there. We saw what

767
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 3: we saw last year. He already, frankly I thought it

768
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 3: a case for top five MVP finish as a rookie.

769
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 3: That's how good he was. I'm not not believing in him.

770
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 3: I'm not believing in everything else in Washington. The rest

771
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 3: of the roster is not great. It's aging quickly. There's

772
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 3: a lot of old dudes on that roster that's rough

773
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 3: on the health, unreliable offense week to week, unreliable coaching.

774
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 3: We know how I feel about these guys, and the

775
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: defense is downright bad, like bottom five in the league bad.

776
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 3: So Jaden Daniels kind of sets up to me, reminds

777
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 3: me maybe a little bit in some ways of like

778
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson from earlier in his career, where it's like,

779
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 3: you're actually too valuable to win Most Valuable Player. You

780
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 3: got to do everything, man, you got to do everything

781
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 3: for this offense. You've got to make all the highlight

782
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 3: of plays. You gotta do all the stuff, and you're

783
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 3: not getting help from anywhere else on the team. You

784
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 3: gotta do it all, and it turns out that's not

785
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 3: a way to win MVP. You're too valuable because you're

786
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 3: not gonna get to thirteen to fourteen wins including we

787
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 3: know that Jaden Daniels' style makes him on every play

788
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 3: a risk because he's got this slight frame and he's

789
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 3: always taken these hits throughout the game. He does a

790
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 3: great job of avoiding him, but one hit anytime and

791
00:40:56,200 --> 00:41:00,280
Speaker 3: the ticket is dead. Basically, I actually have Washington bottom

792
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 3: ten in the NFL this season. I don't buy them

793
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 3: as a Super Bowl contender, being close to it, I

794
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 3: think people are blinded by the Jane Daniels of it

795
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 3: all and not looking at the entire team. This is

796
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:14,320
Speaker 3: a team award. I cannot invest in Jane Daniels MVP,

797
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 3: and I'm putting Joe Burrow in the same bucket. I

798
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 3: think he could put up monster stats, like he could

799
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 3: break the passing yards record or the passing touchdowns record.

800
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 3: If he does that, he's gonna be in the mix here.

801
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 3: But he's only gonna do that because the defense is

802
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,919
Speaker 3: so bad and they're gonna have to throw all year,

803
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:38,720
Speaker 3: all game long. That's a tough way to win thirteen games.

804
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 3: It's not impossible, but you're gonna have to be like

805
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 3: the number one offense with a bullet especially in this division,

806
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 3: in this conference, to get to the top of the conference.

807
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 3: If you don't win the division, you're the five seeder below.

808
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 3: We need a top two seed. You got to beat

809
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 3: the Ravens. You've got to beat the other guys in

810
00:41:56,440 --> 00:42:00,359
Speaker 3: the conference. The Bengals ranked near the bottom. We went

811
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,279
Speaker 3: through all of our different ranking sections, their bottom five

812
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:08,760
Speaker 3: offensive line and coaching staff and defense. I can't bet

813
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 3: on that team when you're bad at all those things.

814
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 3: This is a bet, not on Burrow. I'm happy to

815
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:18,240
Speaker 3: bet on Burrow. You're betting on the line being good.

816
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,919
Speaker 3: You're betting on Al Golden turning this defense around. You're

817
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 3: betting on the Bengals franchise, paying Trey Hendricks in the

818
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 3: finally and doing all the stuff right, I don't want

819
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 3: to bet on any of those things. Burrow to me

820
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 3: at plus six fifty is a willful ignorance of teammates

821
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 3: and what actually wins MVP. He is the worst MVP

822
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 3: bet on the board this season.

823
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, he might be a better Offensive Player of the

824
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 1: Year bet at whatever price it actually is based off

825
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 1: of what you think about Cincinnati. I mean, quarterbacks don't

826
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 1: win that award. We talked about that on the other podcast.

827
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,840
Speaker 1: But just looking at what he'll bring to the table

828
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:01,919
Speaker 1: and the stats will I mean probably a better bet

829
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 1: than this one, because I just don't think, like you said,

830
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: Cincinnati gets there. He had forty three touchdowns, nine picks,

831
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 1: almost five thousand yards, and finished fourth behind the two

832
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 1: guys who won a ton of games and the running

833
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 1: back he went crazy. So I'm not exactly sure what

834
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 1: he needs to is it fifty plus Like it's just

835
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 1: the numbers don't seem worthy of the price in terms

836
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 1: of what you're gonna need to get there, especially after

837
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 1: Chase had the season he had as well, So I'm

838
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: there with that, And then Jane Daniels I closed my

839
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 1: eyes and didn't look at the MVP voting and had

840
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,439
Speaker 1: to remember it. I was kind of shocked to see

841
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:37,879
Speaker 1: he finished seventh. So given the season, he had nine

842
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 1: hundred rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. I mean, granted,

843
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:44,240
Speaker 1: could that get higher and be in the Josh Allen

844
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 1: twelve range and give him the love maybe, But again,

845
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 1: I don't think the wins are there, Like if we

846
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 1: think Dallas the ceiling is like eleven, I mean, Washington's

847
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 1: not much higher. Like you know, I'm with you with

848
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 1: the roster seems depleted in areas aging a little bit.

849
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 1: I just I don't see it, and I think that

850
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 1: the price is way at a whack, Like if you're

851
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: thinking Dak at forty, Jayden just doesn't make sense at ten,

852
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 1: even given the rushing ability and kind of all the

853
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 1: things we talked about. So I'm with it.

854
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, And again I'm not even telling you that guys

855
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 3: like Dak are good bets. So if their ads are

856
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 3: already pop bad and too high, it's not even comfortable

857
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 3: comparing these other guys' odds to them. Because most of

858
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 3: the names we've said so far, I've only really given

859
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 3: you permission dear listener to bet On, Kyler Murray and

860
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,800
Speaker 3: JJ McCarthy. That's it. We save the good guys still

861
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 3: for after the ad to read, so we're about to

862
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 3: get to them shortly.

863
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 1: Alrighty, So no surprises, folks. NFL season kicks off in

864
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,399
Speaker 1: just a matter of days. It's why we're talking about

865
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:43,960
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866
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,960
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867
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:51,480
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868
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:55,520
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869
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878
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 1: this is called a serious path to a one seed

879
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: and enough reputation to win it. So I'm just gonna

880
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 1: let you kind of go off on your own list

881
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: here because I want you to name them how you will.

882
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 1: But one of these guys seems like he's one of

883
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 1: your favorite bets.

884
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, So here are the four guys, three of them

885
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 3: in the NFC, because frankly, that's where you want the

886
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 3: path to the one seed. So the three NFC guys

887
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,799
Speaker 3: and order of odds. Jalen Hurts twenty to one, Join

888
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,919
Speaker 3: Love twenty five to one, Brock Purdy thirty to one,

889
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,359
Speaker 3: maybe a surprise in the Time seven here, and then

890
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 3: in the AFC CJ. Stroud twenty five to one. So

891
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,399
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts, I'm gonna rule him out as a bet

892
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 3: because he finished second in MVP a couple years ago.

893
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 3: There's a long history of guys that have really one

894
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,399
Speaker 3: top three finish and then never really get back again.

895
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 3: Once you get a second one usually win. We saw

896
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 3: Josh Allen do that last year, but I'm not sure

897
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:25,800
Speaker 3: Hurts ever has that season again. He does have the respect.

898
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 3: Now he's got the Super Bowl ring, he'd have a

899
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:31,240
Speaker 3: pretty easy narrative here. The Eagles are a pretty obvious

900
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 3: case for the one seed. But last year you didn't

901
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:36,279
Speaker 3: have the numbers even close to it. Hurts had under

902
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 3: three thousand yards passing, under twenty touchdowns passing. That's like

903
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 3: half of what you need for passing touchdowns. And I

904
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 3: don't really feel like people get that excited about the

905
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:49,720
Speaker 3: Tush push touchdowns, like it's not nothing. But with Hurts,

906
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 3: you're giving credit to the line and Tafangio's defense, and

907
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 3: the Saquon and the AJ Brown and the coaching. There's

908
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 3: so much happening there. He's just not quite valuable. And

909
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 3: now I think so if you want to make a case,

910
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 3: I think the case is this. Leagles were headed by

911
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 3: so much last year they didn't have to pass very much.

912
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:11,800
Speaker 3: They're going to pass more, so that's great for Jalen Hurts. Okay,

913
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 3: I disagree. That's worse for Jalen Hurts because more passing

914
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 3: is bad for Jalen Hurts. I'm sorry, he's not that dude.

915
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 3: Better stats means worse Eagles. You can't bet on Jailen

916
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 3: Hurts right now. That they open Cowboys, Chiefs, Rams, Bucks, Broncos.

917
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:31,760
Speaker 3: That is a rough opening stretch. Eagles can win those games,

918
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 3: but I think you at least gotta wait, even if

919
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 3: you do want him. Jordan Love, I thought, coming into

920
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,879
Speaker 3: this exercise might be my bet. We know I'm high

921
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:42,359
Speaker 3: on Jordan Love. We know that's my guy. I still

922
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 3: won't be surprised if I come back and add him later.

923
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 3: He's top five advanced metrics his first year, top ten

924
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 3: last year, even though he played poorly for half the season.

925
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 3: He pays for four thousand yards thirty plus touchdowns both

926
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 3: years under Matt Lafleur. The stats are I was good,

927
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 3: yards per temp, touchdown percentage, all the VP indicators are there.

928
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 3: In fact, of course, he coached Rogers two MVPs, so

929
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 3: proof of concept there. Last season, the Packers were bottom

930
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 3: three in passing rate, neutral passing rate, pass grin of expectation.

931
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:14,719
Speaker 3: They ranked near the bottom league and all of those

932
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 3: why because Love got hurt and then Malik Willis for

933
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 3: a couple of games and Love was still like getting

934
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 3: back to health after that. I think we revert to

935
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 3: a more modern offense. Including Packers' touchdown percentage. The last

936
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 3: last season, only fifty five percent were passing touchdowns. Previous

937
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 3: four years seventy five, seventy five, sixty nine, seventy six,

938
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 3: heavily passing touchdowns under la Flur, So I think there's

939
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 3: a real shot that Love gets to like forty five

940
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 3: hundred yards forty touchdowns. Those are MVP numbers. Can they

941
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 3: get thirteen wins too? I think it's possible. I had

942
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 3: the Packers a lot, we like a lot of the

943
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:54,840
Speaker 3: talent on this team. I think Jordan Love with Lafleur,

944
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 3: I would put him if you gave me evan odds.

945
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 3: Will Jordan Love under la flur winning eventually? I take

946
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 3: the yes? Is that this year? I'm not sure the

947
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 3: NFC seems open. I don't mind the bet here twenty

948
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 3: five to one. I think it's about priced right, but

949
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:14,160
Speaker 3: it's it's a tough sell to get too much past

950
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 3: the number. To me, these guys are all like four

951
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:21,359
Speaker 3: to six percent likely maybe fifteen to one, twenty five

952
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 3: to one range at the best. CJ. Stroud harder Sell.

953
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 3: I think the metrics haven't been there, not even really

954
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 3: top twenty. Last year. We made the case on the

955
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 3: Awards pod of just like what's the upside with Houston?

956
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 3: I think that's the sell on Stroud is number one defense,

957
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 3: maybe top special teams. What if the worst line in

958
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:44,360
Speaker 3: the league is maybe just a blow average line. What

959
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 3: if Nick Kaylee and the offense are a little better,

960
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 3: that's the upside. He's gonna play all three of the

961
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 3: top guys in the AFC because they're the number one

962
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,360
Speaker 3: team in the division. So you get the tough division schedule,

963
00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 3: so it's hard games. But he's gonna face Lamar and

964
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 3: Josh and Patrick. You get your MVP moment, possibly rams

965
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 3: Box to start the season. Not an easy opener Baltimore

966
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:09,919
Speaker 3: Week five. I think with Stroud you can like him.

967
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:12,600
Speaker 3: I'm intrigued, but you can kind of wait and see.

968
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 3: I think you can kind of see how does this

969
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 3: look early and probably with that schedule not lose a

970
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 3: ton of value if you want to buy later. So

971
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 3: I'm not out on these guys. I'm gonna come back

972
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 3: to party in a second. But I don't let you

973
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 3: respond to Stroud, Hurts or.

974
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 1: Love, so one by one here, I think it's easier

975
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 1: to compare Love and Stroud. I'll go back to the

976
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 1: defense of remark I made earlier. Having a really, really

977
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 1: really good defense, which we project like Denver and Houston,

978
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 1: you know, things of that nature. I think makes it

979
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 1: a tiny bit harder to stand out on that side.

980
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 1: I think Jordan loves the bet. I think at this price,

981
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 1: he's a hot name. He's someone we kind of want

982
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 1: to talk about. Right if he threw for forty touchdowns

983
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 1: and had the numbers and green Bay was in the mix,

984
00:50:56,800 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 1: I think we'd fall in love. It's green Bay, it's

985
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 1: new quarterback. We can bring up Rogers like. I think,

986
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 1: the storyline, the narrative, Lafleur, it's all there if the

987
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 1: numbers get there, which is why I kind of like it.

988
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:12,040
Speaker 1: I think it's there for as Stroud as well. But

989
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 1: we talked about this on the other podcast. I think

990
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 1: there could be more value on like Nicocollins going crazy

991
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,359
Speaker 1: than CJ. Stroud getting the award. So I think there's

992
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 1: just different ways to invest in my opinion, And then

993
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 1: Jalen hurts, My thing is this never thrown for fourth

994
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 1: thousd it's the Kyler stuff, never thrown for four thousand,

995
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:33,360
Speaker 1: never had twenty four hundred twenty four passing touchdowns his

996
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:37,399
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns the last four years fourteen, fifteen, thirteen, ten.

997
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 1: So I say in my brain, like what does he

998
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 1: actually need to do to get the attention, Like, is

999
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 1: it twenty rushing touchdowns, like what is the number actually

1000
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:49,279
Speaker 1: in my brain? And to me, it's not worth the

1001
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 1: price because he's just you know, I think, like CJ.

1002
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 1: Stroud to Nico Collins, I prefer investing in AJ Brown

1003
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 1: than I do in Jalen Hurts.

1004
00:51:57,960 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, and at twenty to one, shortest out of the

1005
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 3: guy in this tier, he's he's going to be the

1006
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 3: worst bet in this tier. I'm gonna throw Jordan Love

1007
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:07,160
Speaker 3: into the mix with Kyler Murray and JJ McCarthy. I'm

1008
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 3: gonna call that. I'm giving you permission to bet Jordan Love.

1009
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 3: I think if you're in on the Packers and in Love,

1010
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,280
Speaker 3: I think that's the quality bet to make. The bet

1011
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,919
Speaker 3: I'm going to make in this tier is brock Purries.

1012
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 3: So it's gonna be my first actual bet back on

1013
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:22,320
Speaker 3: the Brock train. I think that forty nine Ers have

1014
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 3: the best shot other than the Eagles to win the

1015
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:26,479
Speaker 3: NFC one seed. It's the softest schedule in the league.

1016
00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:29,520
Speaker 3: We know all about that, and I think despite that

1017
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 3: they went six and eleven last year, I think that

1018
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:35,799
Speaker 3: actually earned brock Purty some real cred among the media. Now,

1019
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 3: I think he's earned the respect now where you're seeing

1020
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 3: him now pop up in like some of these is

1021
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:44,320
Speaker 3: he a top ten quarterback now? Some of these rankings less.

1022
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 3: Purty is sneaking in there now to where I think

1023
00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 3: he's getting some of that respect. This year, he's gonna

1024
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 3: have less help than he's had in the past, so

1025
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 3: less excuses to blame or give credit to other people.

1026
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 3: The receivers are all hurt, McCaffrey will probably miss some

1027
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:01,399
Speaker 3: time at some point. Perty it will be the one

1028
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 3: constant perhaps, and that helps his narrative. The stats are

1029
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:07,359
Speaker 3: all gonna be great. We know that already his first

1030
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:10,080
Speaker 3: two years seven percent touchdown percent of You're better. That's

1031
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 3: a huge number, almost nine yards per tempt for his

1032
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 3: entire career. These are Shanahan and Purty stats together, but

1033
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 3: guess what they count either way, the advanced metrics, they're

1034
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 3: gonna be great. Perty led the league in EPA per

1035
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:27,720
Speaker 3: PLAYNPA plus CPOE two years ago when he was nearly

1036
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 3: MVP till that Christmas Ravens game happened. So everything lines

1037
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 3: up there. If the Niners are good again, Perty's good again,

1038
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:38,399
Speaker 3: and then the narrative is a pretty easy sell. We're

1039
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 3: talking about mister irrelevant, pretty relevant now leading the top

1040
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:46,439
Speaker 3: team in the NFC. Actually no longer just the guy

1041
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 3: as a system guy. But man boy, he's creating a

1042
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:51,960
Speaker 3: little bit on his own now. The training wheels are off,

1043
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 3: he's doing his own. Like you can just hear the conversation.

1044
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 3: Coming thirty to one implies about three percent. I make

1045
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:01,440
Speaker 3: him more like five to seven, So that's about double

1046
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 3: those odds. He's my first actual bet on the board.

1047
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:08,759
Speaker 1: I get it. I mean, you're you're listen. I have

1048
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 1: the San Francisco conversation. I feel like on a lot

1049
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 1: of these different pods, I just don't see it as

1050
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 1: much as others do. I mean, the schedule is super easy.

1051
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,680
Speaker 1: It's one of the easier ways to kind of buy

1052
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:22,320
Speaker 1: into them this season. They've got a lot of issues.

1053
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 1: They've got receiver issues, they've got injury issues, they've got

1054
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:28,960
Speaker 1: some age issues. I see the bounce back. Shanahan's done

1055
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:31,960
Speaker 1: it numerous times, and the thing that goes for prety.

1056
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:34,360
Speaker 1: He's probably not gonna throw a lot of picks. His

1057
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 1: percentages are probably going to be very good. His advanced

1058
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 1: stuff is going to be very good. So the window

1059
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:44,200
Speaker 1: is there, but to be priced around Jordan Love. I

1060
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 1: would prefer Love's price, you know, six to one a

1061
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 1: half a dozen the other from trying to bet both quarterbacks.

1062
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:53,000
Speaker 1: I kind of like Love, but I understand it like

1063
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 1: San Francisco, if you believe in them, given the schedule

1064
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 1: has a much you would call it easier route to

1065
00:54:59,239 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 1: the number of wind you would need to win the award.

1066
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 1: So I see the path. I just don't buy in

1067
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 1: San Francisco, which you know hurts it a little bit

1068
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 1: for me.

1069
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think that makes sense. And that's

1070
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 3: where you know, I'm trying to give you some options listening,

1071
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:14,399
Speaker 3: where if you just like Green Bay more than San

1072
00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 3: fran as a team, and yeah, Rushia like Love better

1073
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:19,439
Speaker 3: than Pretty also, and I think that's why it both

1074
00:55:19,480 --> 00:55:22,279
Speaker 3: makes sense. And then here we are down to the

1075
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,200
Speaker 3: three shocking names at the top of our list that

1076
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 3: no one could possibly have predicted.

1077
00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:30,800
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I mean it's hard again, given this award

1078
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:33,400
Speaker 1: and what it's turned into, it's hard to go away

1079
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,800
Speaker 1: from these guys. But you've got Tier two so always

1080
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 1: in the mix, but doesn't feel like their year. It's

1081
00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes and it's Josh Allen, so kind of go

1082
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 1: into both cases.

1083
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:46,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Mahomes pretty easy narrative setup, right, we kind

1084
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:48,479
Speaker 3: of we know the numbers have been down a little

1085
00:55:48,480 --> 00:55:50,320
Speaker 3: the last couple of years. He's coming off the Super

1086
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:53,480
Speaker 3: Bowl loss. He goes out and has a big, monster season,

1087
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 3: and we get the like, yeah, Patrick still got it right,

1088
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 3: Still the best in the league. Like, that's such an

1089
00:55:58,320 --> 00:56:01,400
Speaker 3: easy story to tell. But we're gonna need a lot here.

1090
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:03,759
Speaker 3: He's probably gonna have to add something close to like

1091
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 3: eight hundred yards and ten touchdowns to what he's done

1092
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 3: the last couple of years to even approach the early numbers.

1093
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:12,280
Speaker 3: And that's the thing too. Mahomes is competing against himself

1094
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:15,320
Speaker 3: for MVP. We know what he's done in the past,

1095
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 3: so we have those numbers on record already. Are we

1096
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 3: really gonna get excited if you're like way off the

1097
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:23,759
Speaker 3: pace of that, I'm not so sure. And the team

1098
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 3: bet here, I don't know if this is a spot

1099
00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:29,400
Speaker 3: to invest in the team chiefs bet. The weapons around

1100
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 3: him not quite as strong, the offensive line is less certain,

1101
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 3: the defense is more good than great. I do wonder

1102
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 3: if there's a little bit of like a couple of

1103
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:42,239
Speaker 3: years ago, Josh Allen here, is Patrick maybe a little

1104
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:45,280
Speaker 3: too valuable to the Chiefs right now to win MVP

1105
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:48,960
Speaker 3: because he's got to do so much. You're not betting

1106
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:51,280
Speaker 3: on Mahomes. I'm happy to bet on Mahomes. You're betting

1107
00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:54,560
Speaker 3: on Josh Simmons and Kingsley. Assume Mattoa the left side

1108
00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 3: of the line. That's what you're betting on. With Joe Touneygan,

1109
00:56:57,280 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 3: you're betting on matt Nagy and this offense. We're betting

1110
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 3: on Rashi Rice being healthy and staying on the field.

1111
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 3: That's the real bet you're making. And I'm happy to

1112
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:09,720
Speaker 3: betting Mahomes. I'm less happy about betting all that stuff.

1113
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:13,359
Speaker 3: So obvious path to a one seed, obvious Mahomes. It's

1114
00:57:13,360 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 3: always in play. They play Eagles and Ravens in September,

1115
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:20,920
Speaker 3: so for me, they're the worst team in both of

1116
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 3: those matchups unless you think they win both of those.

1117
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:27,160
Speaker 3: Why are you buying Mahomes right now? You can always

1118
00:57:27,200 --> 00:57:28,920
Speaker 3: get a ticket like this later. I'm never going to

1119
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 3: be grudge you for betting on who I think is

1120
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 3: the greatest quarterback of our lifetime. But that's why I'm

1121
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 3: not in on Mahomes.

1122
00:57:35,000 --> 00:57:35,400
Speaker 1: This year.

1123
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 3: With Alan, we kind of warned you at the top,

1124
00:57:38,680 --> 00:57:41,720
Speaker 3: we don't pick back to back MVPs only to this century.

1125
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 3: Allen has to overcome the fact that he hasn't won

1126
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 3: the playoffs yet, so maybe he might have to win

1127
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 3: their first a little bit to get the reputation. The

1128
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:54,800
Speaker 3: offense under Joe Brady has been more run first. That's

1129
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:58,440
Speaker 3: good for Josh because it's helped him limit mistakes and

1130
00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 3: stay a little healthier. It's bad because the numbers really

1131
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:03,400
Speaker 3: haven't been that awesome. Like you look at the numbers

1132
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 3: last year, they're not overwhelming MVP numbers. That's why you

1133
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 3: are at the top that Lamar maybe should have won it.

1134
00:58:09,160 --> 00:58:11,160
Speaker 3: The advanced metrics, they're going to be great. Like Allen

1135
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 3: is a great quarterback, he's deserving. I thought he was

1136
00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 3: the correct deserving MVP last year. But in the AFC,

1137
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 3: the Bills are my division favorite, but they're my least

1138
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 3: favorite of the favorites in the AFC, even including Houston.

1139
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 3: I'm not totally sold on the team around Josh Allen,

1140
00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 3: and I think New England is the strongest next competitor

1141
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 3: of any AFC quarterback in those divisions as well. So

1142
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 3: on top of all that, Opening Night Sunday night next week. Man,

1143
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 3: awesome first game Baltimore Buffalo. Well, already you have the

1144
00:58:44,480 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 3: way better team around Lamar Jackson versus Josh Allen and

1145
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 3: whatever guys he found to go out there and run

1146
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:54,439
Speaker 3: up against him. Baltimore is the favorite in that game

1147
00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 3: because they're the better team. And now you're onero to

1148
00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 3: one to start the season out, so you can't buy

1149
00:58:59,640 --> 00:59:03,120
Speaker 3: now you want Josh Allen. It's a very soft schedule

1150
00:59:03,200 --> 00:59:04,960
Speaker 3: after that the rest of the first half, so if

1151
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:07,080
Speaker 3: you're going to pile up the numbers, that's when you

1152
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 3: need to buy in. And you know, if they win

1153
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:12,480
Speaker 3: the game. Obviously he's probably the favorite already after week

1154
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 3: one and you've lost a little bit of bet But

1155
00:59:15,160 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 3: to me, sure these guys can win. I have them

1156
00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 3: like ten to fifteen percent. They're certainly in the mix.

1157
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:22,640
Speaker 3: I never can fault you for betting on a guy

1158
00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:25,440
Speaker 3: this good. These are my top two quarterbacks. I just

1159
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:28,080
Speaker 3: think this is not the year for either one of them.

1160
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 1: My thing that's interesting about Josh Allen is I don't think,

1161
00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 1: like I said at the top, he should have won

1162
00:59:32,640 --> 00:59:34,440
Speaker 1: it last year, and so there's a lot of like

1163
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:38,000
Speaker 1: actual room for like he didn't throw for thirty touchdowns.

1164
00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:41,400
Speaker 1: I feel like there is a room for statistical improvement.

1165
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:44,400
Speaker 1: He had twelve rushing touchdowns, and I think the interesting

1166
00:59:44,440 --> 00:59:47,280
Speaker 1: thing you said during Hurts is we don't respect the

1167
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 1: touch push, but for some reason, we respect the physical

1168
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:54,400
Speaker 1: nature of Josh Allen getting into the end zone the

1169
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:56,520
Speaker 1: way he does, and we look at it like, oh

1170
00:59:56,520 --> 00:59:59,200
Speaker 1: my god, look at all these touchdowns he scored. Also,

1171
00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:02,480
Speaker 1: he did ca touchdown last year, which is something of

1172
01:00:02,560 --> 01:00:06,400
Speaker 1: like a stupid storyline that happens in a game that

1173
01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 1: you know, maybe puts you into a superhero Superman type.

1174
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:14,040
Speaker 1: It's stupid, but these are the types of things that

1175
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 1: you know, tend to maybe happen to help someone win

1176
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 1: the award when maybe another person should have won it.

1177
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:24,080
Speaker 1: So of this group, I think they're both just difficult bets.

1178
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:27,000
Speaker 1: They're the favorites for a reason. Mahomes keeps talking about it,

1179
01:00:27,000 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 1: and I've heard it with the Chiefs in camp and

1180
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:31,000
Speaker 1: all these different type of stuff, that they're really working

1181
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 1: on the deep ball because the deep ball hasn't been

1182
01:00:33,160 --> 01:00:35,200
Speaker 1: there since Tyreek Hill was there. And I think it's

1183
01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 1: part of the reason why his numbers just are deflated.

1184
01:00:38,840 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 1: From what they had been before. So for Patrick Mahomes

1185
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:44,720
Speaker 1: to get into that conversation, Chiefs have to win a

1186
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 1: bunch more games in general or stay consistent thirteen fourteen range,

1187
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:51,840
Speaker 1: which we think the division's a little harder this year,

1188
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:53,720
Speaker 1: and you need to deep ball back because you need

1189
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:57,480
Speaker 1: to get into that forty plus touchdown range to do it.

1190
01:00:57,520 --> 01:01:01,480
Speaker 1: I think Josh is probably the better because I could

1191
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:04,320
Speaker 1: see the back to back storyline if his numbers get

1192
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:06,840
Speaker 1: better than they were last year. So that would be

1193
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:08,480
Speaker 1: my case for both those guys.

1194
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:11,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, Honestly, if you want to just be real boring

1195
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:14,800
Speaker 3: but probably profit the best thing you can do is

1196
01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 3: a better It might just be to bet both of

1197
01:01:16,720 --> 01:01:20,080
Speaker 3: them and Lamar Jackson. You can bet all three together

1198
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 3: versus the field effectively at like plus one forty, so

1199
01:01:24,320 --> 01:01:28,240
Speaker 3: you're getting like a forty ish percent implied I put them.

1200
01:01:28,520 --> 01:01:30,560
Speaker 3: I would rather have these three versus the field. I

1201
01:01:30,600 --> 01:01:33,680
Speaker 3: have like fifty five percent combined on these top three

1202
01:01:33,760 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 3: versus the field. So if you want to be boring,

1203
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:37,640
Speaker 3: that's the way we used to bet Defensive Player of

1204
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 3: the Year.

1205
01:01:38,600 --> 01:01:39,440
Speaker 2: Just bet those.

1206
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:41,960
Speaker 3: Three be done, no more adding later, no more chasing,

1207
01:01:42,320 --> 01:01:44,000
Speaker 3: and you're probably going to be in a good position,

1208
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 3: but I kind of obviously alluded to it. No surprises.

1209
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:51,439
Speaker 3: Tier one one name left. I call it Tier one

1210
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:55,400
Speaker 3: is my favorite to win this. It's Lamar Jackson plus

1211
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:59,280
Speaker 3: five point fifty. I know that betting the favorite is

1212
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:01,720
Speaker 3: boring and it's not what I do normally, but it's

1213
01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:03,960
Speaker 3: just such an easy pick and such an easy case.

1214
01:02:04,400 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 3: The Ravens are my number one team in the league,

1215
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:10,200
Speaker 3: my projected number one overall seed. I have the Ravens

1216
01:02:10,320 --> 01:02:13,800
Speaker 3: right now almost three full points to the spread ahead

1217
01:02:13,840 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 3: of any other team, which is outlandish, but that's how

1218
01:02:17,560 --> 01:02:20,080
Speaker 3: far ahead they are. They are in our rankings. Top

1219
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:24,200
Speaker 3: eight skill position, top eight offense, the line, top eight coaching,

1220
01:02:24,240 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 3: top eight defense, Top eight special teams of course, top

1221
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:33,160
Speaker 3: eight quarterback also, so this is an absolutely loaded team.

1222
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:37,080
Speaker 3: Lamar has never lost more than five games in a

1223
01:02:37,120 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 3: season in his career, and now with Todd Mounkin, the

1224
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:44,560
Speaker 3: advanced metrics are off the charts, hyper elite, and the

1225
01:02:44,600 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 3: system is keeping him healthier because the play style has

1226
01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:50,120
Speaker 3: changed a little bit, so even that risk has gone down.

1227
01:02:50,840 --> 01:02:54,640
Speaker 3: With his running and his capability, it kind of scrambles

1228
01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:57,760
Speaker 3: people's brains so that the stats don't have to quite

1229
01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:00,560
Speaker 3: measure up. It's like, oh, well, the passing numbers aren't

1230
01:03:00,600 --> 01:03:02,400
Speaker 3: quite there, but look at all the rushing numbers, and

1231
01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:04,720
Speaker 3: we don't quite have a way to measure that. The

1232
01:03:04,840 --> 01:03:07,760
Speaker 3: other thing, he doesn't throw many receptions. He does fumble,

1233
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:10,320
Speaker 3: but for some reason we don't count that an MVP.

1234
01:03:10,640 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 3: Nobody ever cares about that, So that's fine too. Fumble

1235
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:15,640
Speaker 3: all you want doesn't seem to matter. It's gonna be

1236
01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:20,400
Speaker 3: tough competition. He got Bills, Lions, Chiefs, Texans first five games.

1237
01:03:20,440 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 3: I don't blame you if you want to wait, I'm

1238
01:03:22,880 --> 01:03:25,560
Speaker 3: betting the favorite because maybe the number gets longer. But

1239
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:28,600
Speaker 3: the Ravens are the better team, so they win those

1240
01:03:28,640 --> 01:03:31,080
Speaker 3: games right away. It's over like you're never getting this

1241
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 3: ticket and now you just have to be chasing after that. Frankly,

1242
01:03:34,600 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 3: if you like it, you can always add more later

1243
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:39,720
Speaker 3: at that point. The narrative question, I think is the

1244
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 3: main thing here. Does Lamar have to win in the

1245
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:46,400
Speaker 3: playoffs first before he gets to win another one? Would

1246
01:03:46,400 --> 01:03:49,400
Speaker 3: we make him a three time MVP when he's quote

1247
01:03:49,760 --> 01:03:53,240
Speaker 3: never done it. I think you made the narrative case

1248
01:03:53,280 --> 01:03:56,720
Speaker 3: for him already. A lot of people think Lamar got

1249
01:03:56,760 --> 01:04:00,760
Speaker 3: robbed last year. I don't, but the voter seem to

1250
01:04:00,840 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 3: think that maybe they got it wrong. And frankly, at

1251
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:06,960
Speaker 3: the end of the day, and I do NBA MVP,

1252
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 3: I do NFL MVP, throw it all the rest of it.

1253
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 3: And I can't believe I'm the one saying this. This

1254
01:04:14,200 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 3: might just be the old argument. Best player best team.

1255
01:04:18,680 --> 01:04:19,160
Speaker 2: That's it.

1256
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:23,440
Speaker 3: Best player best team, that's the Ravens and the regular season.

1257
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:26,640
Speaker 3: That might be Lamar Jackson at plus five point fifty.

1258
01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:31,320
Speaker 3: That's fifteen percent, no way, at least double for me.

1259
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:34,680
Speaker 3: I'd have him at least thirty percent, maybe forty percent. Wow,

1260
01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:37,720
Speaker 3: I cannot get further than plus three hundred for him.

1261
01:04:38,120 --> 01:04:40,280
Speaker 3: I'd make him closer to like two to one odds.

1262
01:04:40,880 --> 01:04:43,520
Speaker 3: This is a bet to make even at plus five fifty.

1263
01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:47,240
Speaker 3: Not my most exciting odds bet to give out. You

1264
01:04:47,320 --> 01:04:49,360
Speaker 3: probably got like a nice boost you can add in

1265
01:04:49,880 --> 01:04:52,640
Speaker 3: somewhere out there, you know, get on, get the right boost,

1266
01:04:53,120 --> 01:04:57,000
Speaker 3: grab a ticket, Lamar Jackson MVP. That's the pick for

1267
01:04:57,120 --> 01:04:57,439
Speaker 3: the year.

1268
01:04:57,960 --> 01:05:01,200
Speaker 1: So I guess the only pause from Lamarv's point of

1269
01:05:01,280 --> 01:05:04,680
Speaker 1: view is he probably doesn't need to exactly repeat what

1270
01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:07,640
Speaker 1: he did last year because of the narrative we're discussing,

1271
01:05:07,640 --> 01:05:09,760
Speaker 1: which is he probably should have won it. So the

1272
01:05:09,840 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 1: forty one touchdowns, four picks, and nine hundred rushing yards,

1273
01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 1: which all I guess seems attainable, also probably could come

1274
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:22,880
Speaker 1: in a little under that, And as long as Baltimore wins,

1275
01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:24,920
Speaker 1: he could still be in that range. I think the

1276
01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:27,600
Speaker 1: thing that would help him, which has kind of disappeared

1277
01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:30,080
Speaker 1: at tad from his game is just the rushing touchdown

1278
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:32,800
Speaker 1: fact because he's not Josh Allen, like, he's not going

1279
01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 1: to get bruised and battered where it counts in the

1280
01:05:36,040 --> 01:05:38,480
Speaker 1: red zone, in the goal line, in that area, like

1281
01:05:38,880 --> 01:05:41,400
Speaker 1: because Derek Henry's there as well. I mean, it's a

1282
01:05:41,400 --> 01:05:43,760
Speaker 1: different game. So it takes away from that number. I mean,

1283
01:05:44,280 --> 01:05:48,680
Speaker 1: in let's say in twenty twenty and twenty nineteen, he

1284
01:05:48,760 --> 01:05:52,240
Speaker 1: had one thousand rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns both years.

1285
01:05:52,520 --> 01:05:55,560
Speaker 1: Now he's in that four or five range. What we're

1286
01:05:55,600 --> 01:05:58,040
Speaker 1: getting is is the long run. I believe, like against

1287
01:05:58,080 --> 01:06:02,360
Speaker 1: the Texans, fifty sixty yards, big touchdown and it's a

1288
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:04,280
Speaker 1: splash play. But the numbers at the end of the

1289
01:06:04,280 --> 01:06:07,600
Speaker 1: season aren't there. So I think that's one just interesting

1290
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:10,160
Speaker 1: factor people look at in terms of the stats. But

1291
01:06:11,320 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 1: best player, best team, it makes complete sense. It's hard

1292
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:18,680
Speaker 1: to go away from any three of these guys. Like

1293
01:06:18,680 --> 01:06:22,360
Speaker 1: like you said, I think just a conversation market around

1294
01:06:22,440 --> 01:06:25,240
Speaker 1: them three versus the field is kind of intriguing. But

1295
01:06:25,840 --> 01:06:28,680
Speaker 1: at this point, I think it is Lamar's award, So

1296
01:06:28,840 --> 01:06:29,640
Speaker 1: we'll see how it goes.

1297
01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:32,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, we know all all the things

1298
01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 3: I've said about Lamar Jackson over the years, and you know,

1299
01:06:35,800 --> 01:06:37,800
Speaker 3: I'm sure I'll say them again at some point. But

1300
01:06:37,880 --> 01:06:40,520
Speaker 3: if I'm coming to you with best Player, best Team,

1301
01:06:40,600 --> 01:06:43,520
Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson best bet, you know, I got to feel

1302
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:46,040
Speaker 3: pretty strongly about it. And I just think this team

1303
01:06:46,600 --> 01:06:50,040
Speaker 3: is way ahead of the field. Lamar Jackson is awesome,

1304
01:06:50,520 --> 01:06:53,720
Speaker 3: is a great quarterback, deserving of MVP consideration, and on

1305
01:06:53,800 --> 01:06:56,960
Speaker 3: this team with all this help, this is it and

1306
01:06:57,000 --> 01:07:00,640
Speaker 3: this will not be my last superlative Ravens giving out

1307
01:07:00,640 --> 01:07:03,400
Speaker 3: this season. I think this team should win the Super Bowl.

1308
01:07:03,720 --> 01:07:06,320
Speaker 3: I think they are clearly the best team in the

1309
01:07:06,440 --> 01:07:08,880
Speaker 3: league and this has to be the year for MVP,

1310
01:07:09,000 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 3: Super Bowl, the whole thing. So we're starting with Lamar

1311
01:07:11,920 --> 01:07:14,800
Speaker 3: plus five fifty a full unit bet on that. I

1312
01:07:14,800 --> 01:07:16,439
Speaker 3: don't even mind if you want to go multi unit

1313
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:18,360
Speaker 3: on it. This is probably my favorite awards bet that

1314
01:07:18,400 --> 01:07:21,680
Speaker 3: I'll give out Rock Purty quarter unit. I'm thirty to one.

1315
01:07:21,800 --> 01:07:23,640
Speaker 3: Those are the best bets for MVP.

1316
01:07:24,560 --> 01:07:27,200
Speaker 1: All right, Well that is it. Thank you for listening

1317
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:31,320
Speaker 1: to our NFL MVP episode. My thanks to Brandon for

1318
01:07:31,440 --> 01:07:34,560
Speaker 1: joining me. We'll have much more NFL betting content in

1319
01:07:34,600 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 1: the days, weeks, and months to come, so make sure

1320
01:07:36,600 --> 01:07:39,440
Speaker 1: you are subscribed to this podcast and check out the

1321
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:42,800
Speaker 1: video version on the Action Network to YouTube page. Don't

1322
01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:46,000
Speaker 1: forget to download the award winning Action Network Gap if

1323
01:07:46,000 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 1: you haven't yet, and use promo code Pod twenty Pod

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01:07:49,920 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 1: twenty for twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro.

1325
01:07:53,960 --> 01:07:56,120
Speaker 1: Best of luck on all your bets. We will see

1326
01:07:56,120 --> 01:07:58,640
Speaker 1: you back here next time on the Action Network podcast

1327
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:19,000
Speaker 1: Let's Go MVP. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1328
01:08:19,439 --> 01:08:22,280
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1329
01:08:22,560 --> 01:08:25,160
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1330
01:08:25,240 --> 01:08:26,040
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