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Speaker 1: They're happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: Chuck Toodcast. So I feel like I have to do

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Speaker 1: a previously on the Chuck Toodcast. I literally taped about

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Speaker 1: an hour before Donald Trump did his own vote counting

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Speaker 1: and realized he was about to see a mass repudiation

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Speaker 1: of his party going on the record to release the

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Speaker 1: Epstein Files, And rather than look like a guy no

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Speaker 1: longer in charge of his party, he decided to instead

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Speaker 1: get in front of a parade, if you will, and

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Speaker 1: lo and behold all but one House Republic and joined

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Speaker 1: what was nearly a unanimous decision by the House of

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Speaker 1: Representatives to urge the House to release everything it has

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Speaker 1: in the so called Epstein Files. Now, of course, we

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Speaker 1: got a long way to go before there's any anything

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Speaker 1: that gets released. But there's a few things that I

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Speaker 1: think are worth understanding about Trump's actions, right number one,

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Speaker 1: And I think first and foremost, and in fact, I

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Speaker 1: would and I sort of brought this up before that. Look,

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Speaker 1: he's probably already a lame duck president, right, but we are.

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Speaker 1: He is certainly not in the acceptance phase that it's

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Speaker 1: a lame duck president. And I'm myself want to be

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Speaker 1: careful assuming that we are. I think as I had

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Speaker 1: compared this, I can't remember previously, but it's it's sort

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Speaker 1: of like trying to figure out when when the lame

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Speaker 1: duck period of a presidency begins. Is like trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out whene a recession begins. You know, after it started,

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Speaker 1: but you don't quite know when it started until after

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Speaker 1: the fact. Now do I think eventually we will go

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Speaker 1: in about three months, we'll say, oh, this lame duck

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Speaker 1: presidency began, or it may take us another year or

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Speaker 1: two to determine that the lame duck presidency began on November,

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Speaker 1: during the November of elections of twenty twenty five. Right,

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Speaker 1: I think that that clearly is going to be a

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Speaker 1: line of demarcation because but he is certainly I think

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Speaker 1: desperate to stave off lame ducdom, if you will. Right, So,

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Speaker 1: what are the evidence that he's trying to stave it off? Well,

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Speaker 1: something like we're seeing here, right, I went through a

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Speaker 1: whole series of things where you're going to start to

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Speaker 1: see a crackup of the Trump coalition. And frankly, this

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Speaker 1: is a normal We're actually in a normal time period

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Speaker 1: for a crackup like this to happen. Trump's essentially been

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Speaker 1: in charge of America's political weather for about a decade, right,

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Speaker 1: even though he is he is in the fifth year

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Speaker 1: of the sixth year of his collective two terms as president,

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Speaker 1: the four years of Biden. In some way, we're right

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Speaker 1: it was Trump making the political weather or not Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden may have been president, but we were still

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Speaker 1: living in the Trump era. And Trump's election into sort

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Speaker 1: of reelection in twenty twenty four after serving from twenty

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Speaker 1: seventeen to twenty twenty one, I think reinforces that notion.

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Speaker 1: But it's important to understand we've been living sort of

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Speaker 1: ten years this under the cloud of Trump, if you will,

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Speaker 1: And anytime you go back into sort of periods of

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Speaker 1: political of periods where sort of one person or one

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Speaker 1: entity sort of controlled the political landscape, right FDR from

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Speaker 1: nineteen thirty two to his death in forty five. But

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Speaker 1: you know, in some ways his sort of peak of

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Speaker 1: powers was in this first four to six years, and

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Speaker 1: then even as he won a third term in a

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Speaker 1: fourth term, each time he was starting to see his

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Speaker 1: power chip away on that front. You know, the Republican

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Speaker 1: run of the Reagan era sort of started to peter

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Speaker 1: out right around nineteen ninety. That was sort of the

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Speaker 1: tax deal that Bush cut with a Democratic House and

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Speaker 1: Senate that ended up sort of accelerating a right wing

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Speaker 1: primary challenge sort of the first shot of the new

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Speaker 1: Trump era, if you will, with the challenge of Path Buchanan.

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Speaker 1: But the point is this tenure run that Trump has

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Speaker 1: sort of dominated the political space we're about at the end,

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Speaker 1: Like no entity has ever been able to sort of

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Speaker 1: make this a fifteen year run or a twenty year

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Speaker 1: run where sort of one person and one entity sort

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Speaker 1: of dominates an era. Like I said, even FDR couldn't

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Speaker 1: push it much past twelve years, but it was really,

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Speaker 1: you know, arguably year ten that he was in some

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Speaker 1: ways at his peak and it was certainly before that

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Speaker 1: that he was at his peak. So I do think

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Speaker 1: that this is one of those This is almost political

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Speaker 1: gravity the situation that we're in now, he's going to

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Speaker 1: do everything he can to stave it off, right, So

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Speaker 1: he suddenly is lopping off tariffs from all the tariffs

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Speaker 1: he added to food, he suddenly is getting rid of them.

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Speaker 1: By the way, if you wonder, if you've ever wondered

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Speaker 1: about what is the actual definition of gas lighting? While

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Speaker 1: the Trump White House on food tariffs is exhibit A

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Speaker 1: of what gaslighting is, which is they put out a

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Speaker 1: press release claiming they're trying to lower the cost of food.

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Speaker 1: This is why they're getting rid of these reciprocal tariffs

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Speaker 1: on food. What they don't tell you is they put

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Speaker 1: the reciprocal tariffs on food, which is why the cost

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Speaker 1: of those food items was going up and contributing to

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Speaker 1: the rising cost of your grocery bill. But hey, no

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Speaker 1: one said he didn't listen to the voters when the

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Speaker 1: voter spoke, and the voter spoke it earlier this month

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Speaker 1: in November, and that's another way he's trying to get

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Speaker 1: out of it. So he's trying to stave off lame

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Speaker 1: ductam with the Epstein files. He gets in front of it,

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Speaker 1: then endorses it, says he's signed the bill. Nothing to

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Speaker 1: see here, nothing to hide. He wants to try to

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Speaker 1: put that chipping away at his power to bet. Then

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Speaker 1: you've got what he's trying to do with tariffs. Now

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Speaker 1: we're going to see another round of this when the

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Speaker 1: courts rule his power is likely unconstitutional. Does it get

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Speaker 1: used as a moment for other Republicans to come out

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Speaker 1: against the tariffs and say, hey, we've got to follow

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Speaker 1: the law and this has got to be voting in Congress.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, if Trump has to go to

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Speaker 1: Congress to get them to agree to his tariffs in

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Speaker 1: an election year, I don't think he's going to get

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Speaker 1: the vote that he wants out of that. So I

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Speaker 1: suspect he'll instead look for other executive authorities to try

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Speaker 1: to issue these tariffs. But it is going to set

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Speaker 1: him back, and in the meantime, Republicans who are looking

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Speaker 1: for an opportunity to have some distance from an unpopular president,

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Speaker 1: and not just unpopular, but a president that is just

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Speaker 1: sort of wearing out his welcome right. This is where

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Speaker 1: Trump fatigue, I think becomes a real thing. And again,

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Speaker 1: this is not some sort of Trump derangement syndrome, oh

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Speaker 1: hoopium type of thing that I'm smoking. This is just

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Speaker 1: what happens when you're in your tenth year of political domination.

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Speaker 1: That there is just your shtick wears out. Your Jedi mind.

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Speaker 1: Tricks don't have the same impact that they once did.

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Speaker 1: I mean, even look at how you know his insults right,

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Speaker 1: we're and I hate this, We're kind of all numb

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Speaker 1: to his insults. I mean, the guy is a misogynist.

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Speaker 1: Every time a woman dares question him in the press corps,

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Speaker 1: he lashes out and goes after looks or goes after

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Speaker 1: the woman and is so sneering. He cannot handle a woman.

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Speaker 1: Look does he attack male reporters who do this? Sure,

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Speaker 1: I've been attacked, but he does not attack with the

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Speaker 1: personal viciousness and the ugliness and the unseemliness that he

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Speaker 1: does to women reporters. And it's a shame how many

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Speaker 1: powerful women that work for the president aren't ashamed of

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Speaker 1: that behavior. It's a bummer. I wish you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to sit here. It's like, you know, there's

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Speaker 1: always this like molism moralizing that now takes place on

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Speaker 1: social media. Where's everybody standing up on this issue? And

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Speaker 1: where's you and where's you and where's you look? We're

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Speaker 1: we're all well past that. We're kind of numb to.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't make it right. It just means a reality.

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Speaker 1: But I do think that's the type of stuff that

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Speaker 1: folks are tiring of. But it's also to me extraordinarily revealing.

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Speaker 1: Right Trump is feeling he knows the end is near.

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Speaker 1: He's feeling power slip away. And when hour starts to

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Speaker 1: slip away, when you're about to lose your status, you

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Speaker 1: get angry and you lash out, and so he's angry.

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Speaker 1: He's lashing out. He knows this situation isn't going well.

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Speaker 1: His vision of what he thought was going to work

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Speaker 1: is not working. On the domestic economy, we are not

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Speaker 1: bringing manufacturing back the way he thought we were bringing

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Speaker 1: manufacturing back. Cutting these deals with these AI companies is

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Speaker 1: going to end up blowing up in his face. This

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Speaker 1: is not the populism that he ran on. And then,

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Speaker 1: of course he's in the midst of legacy building. He loves,

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Speaker 1: particularly working with the Gulf States, because they always are

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Speaker 1: so transactional, meaning they are willing to pay him, they

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Speaker 1: are willing to enrich his family businesses. So he loves

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Speaker 1: doing these deals, but it actually undermines his entire America

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Speaker 1: First agenda, as Marjorie Taylor Green so uncomfortably likes to

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Speaker 1: point out. And she's part of that wing of the

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Speaker 1: party that really did want to say advertise with the

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Speaker 1: internationalist wing of the GOP, really didn't want to see

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Speaker 1: American interventions, whether it's in Venezuela, whether it's in Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: whether it's in the Middle East. So that is a real,

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Speaker 1: always has been a real movement inside the conservative side

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Speaker 1: of the aisle. The question is how big or small

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Speaker 1: it is at any given moment, And right now I

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Speaker 1: think it is a little bit larger than Donald Trump realizes,

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Speaker 1: which is why his as he gravitates towards the international

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Speaker 1: in order to try to build his own legacy, It's

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Speaker 1: not like the rank and file are following him on that.

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Speaker 1: So look, like I said, when we previously checked in,

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Speaker 1: you know we had it was more about, Okay, how

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Speaker 1: many Republicans are going to be comfortable breaking with Trump?

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Speaker 1: And then Trump realized, oh my god, over one hundred

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Speaker 1: we're going to be comfortable doing this. This is going

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Speaker 1: to get ugly. This is going to have people questioning

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Speaker 1: my leadership of this party. I want to put that

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Speaker 1: question off. I don't want that debate to begin. And

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Speaker 1: so that is why he jumped in front of this

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Speaker 1: in there. Now. The reality is are we going to

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Speaker 1: see anything? Are we actually going to see these files?

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Speaker 1: Or is the opening of an investigation that Trump ordered

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Speaker 1: Pambondi to do for quote unquote Democrats caught up in

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Speaker 1: the Epstein situation going to then have justice invoking while

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Speaker 1: we're in the middle of an open investigation, and so

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Speaker 1: we can't we can't make public any of these records

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Speaker 1: while we're in the middle of an open investigation, which,

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Speaker 1: by the way, if that is true, you actually couldn't,

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Speaker 1: you know, it wouldn't be right. But it does feel

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Speaker 1: as if that Trump is going to want to find

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Speaker 1: another way to either slow down or prevent the eventual

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Speaker 1: release of the full amount of of these documents. A

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Speaker 1: few other a few other notes about I sort of

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Speaker 1: more have a I'd say the rest of my introduction

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Speaker 1: here is a little bit more of a political notebook item.

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Speaker 1: Jamal Kushoge and NBS. I know there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: people moralizing over and look what Trump Our relationship with

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Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia is what it is, and I don't like it.

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Speaker 1: I don't like that we don't prioritize human rights here.

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Speaker 1: I don't like that we didn't lean on the Saudi's

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Speaker 1: when we could have at a certain moment when they

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Speaker 1: when when it was clear that he had ordered the

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Speaker 1: assassination and the dismemberment of a journalist. But we didn't

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Speaker 1: do it. And you know what else, it didn't do it.

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden didn't do it. There is a lot of

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Speaker 1: foreign policy experts that are whispering in the ears of

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Speaker 1: both Donald Trump and Joe Biden and whispered in the air,

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Speaker 1: and look at Jake Sullivan would say it publicly that

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Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia is a swing country and that we had

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Speaker 1: to accept them warts and all, peeing coming in our

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Speaker 1: tent and peeing on the outside, rather than moving over

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Speaker 1: to China's tent and peeing and peeing on our tent,

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Speaker 1: if you will. And so I know there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of I think the criticism that Trump is so dismissive

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Speaker 1: of the finding that NBS had something to do with

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Speaker 1: Kushogi's death, that NBS didn't that we didn't sort of.

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Speaker 1: But look, that's not a democracy that Saderreba is not

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Speaker 1: a democracy. It is a it's a dictatorship. I mean

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Speaker 1: it's called a monarchy. But let's you know, I think

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Speaker 1: I've said this before. All monarchies are dictator Are they

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Speaker 1: benevolent dictatorships or malevolent dictatorships? Right? Are they? Are they?

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Speaker 1: You know, there's a handful of monarchies that believe in

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Speaker 1: them that have allowed democracy to happen. But a lot

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Speaker 1: of these monarchies in the Middle East, they're just glorified.

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Speaker 1: They're just dictatorships with just titles that aren't general or president.

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Speaker 1: Instead they are titles that are king or prince. But

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Speaker 1: there there's a form of a dictatorship. And obviously we

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Speaker 1: are in there are so many ties with the Saudis,

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Speaker 1: and there's been so many presidents that the Saudis have

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Speaker 1: been sidling up to and you know, with various actors.

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Speaker 1: This is this is real politique, right, This is sometimes

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Speaker 1: you you you know, you don't have the allies that

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Speaker 1: you want, you have the allies that you need. And

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, if Saudi Arabia and

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Speaker 1: Israel have official relations. That's a big deal in the

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Speaker 1: Middle East, and that only increases the chances of stability

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East. Stability in the Middle East is

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Speaker 1: good for the United States and good for our national security.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't excuse what NBS did. It is a shame

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Speaker 1: that we have not come up with a better way

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Speaker 1: to hold Saudi Arabia accountable. But it's well passed holding

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Speaker 1: them accountable. And you can be as angry about Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's dismissive of this yesterday as you can, but realize

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden and he may have been dragged to Saudi

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Speaker 1: Arabia kicking and screaming, but he made nice with Saudi

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Speaker 1: Arabia because there has been a decision made that for

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Speaker 1: the greater good of America's national security interests, Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 1: has to be an ally and we can't alienate them.

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Speaker 1: And apparently, the more you go after MBS over Jamal

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Speaker 1: shuk Kushoki, the more it gets alien the more they

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Speaker 1: may get alienated. And we can't afford to drive them

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Speaker 1: in the arms of Russia and China. It's an uncomfortable fact.

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Speaker 1: But this is why the job of being president and

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Speaker 1: leader of the so called free world is quite difficult,

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Speaker 1: and why you want as moral and ethical of people

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Speaker 1: as you could possibly find to sit in that chair,

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Speaker 1: because when you have amorl people, they will just shrug

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Speaker 1: their shoulders when people commit amorl and immoral acts, which

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Speaker 1: is exactly what Donald Trump has done with the Saudis.

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Speaker 1: I suppose we should be happier that Joe Biden condemned

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Speaker 1: what Thesadis did, but it did not change our behavior

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Speaker 1: towards Thesati's, nor did it change the Saudi behavior. So

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Speaker 1: that is what it is. Sometimes I think we have

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Speaker 1: to understand the uncomfortable reality of the situation, and this

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Speaker 1: is who the King of Saudi Arabia has chosen to

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Speaker 1: run his government and run a very powerful regional power

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East. And sometimes you have to deal

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Speaker 1: with leaders. You know, is Air Towan the best leader

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Speaker 1: of Turkey we could have? The answer is no, but

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Speaker 1: we have no choice but to deal with them as

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Speaker 1: a ally. Is bb Netan Yahoo an ideal ally? As

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Speaker 1: head of government Israel Harden? Of course, hardon now, but

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Speaker 1: this is the situation we live in. So anyway, I

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Speaker 1: just wanted to it is because it really I personally,

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Speaker 1: really struggle with it. I am so outraged right by

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Speaker 1: the dismissiveness of the just killing of journalists, the disregard

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump has for journalists, the threats that he makes,

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Speaker 1: the fact that his behavior echoes what an authoritarian leader

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Speaker 1: NBS behaved, and that he somehow is condoning that behavior.

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Speaker 1: It would be nice if we at least paid lip

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Speaker 1: service to the First Amendment, and if we had a

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Speaker 1: sitting president of the United States that gave two shits

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Speaker 1: about the Constitution. But unfortunately that is not the situation

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Speaker 1: we live in in the moment. But we can I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, I try to sort of be I can

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Speaker 1: tell you how I personally feel and at the same

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Speaker 1: time trying to explain the political reality of the situation

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Speaker 1: that we are in. And when it comes to relationships

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Speaker 1: with Saudi Arabia, this country has come to the bipartisan

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Speaker 1: conclusion that we have to work with this dictatorship, not

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Speaker 1: necessarily work to change the regime or undermine it, or

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Speaker 1: to ostracize it, given that everything is always seen through

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Speaker 1: the prism of we've got to have it more checks

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Speaker 1: on China and Russia. That's how you find yourself in

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Speaker 1: bed with people that you wouldn't necessarily want to be

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Speaker 1: morally or ethically connected to. But hence this is where

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Speaker 1: A few other notes. I will confess to reading a

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Speaker 1: lot about the Olivia Newsy stuff. I am there are

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Speaker 1: so many things I'd like to say about it. I

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Speaker 1: am disgusted that any news organization has hired her as

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Speaker 1: a quote unquote journalist. The minute you sleep with your sources,

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Speaker 1: you have compromised your journalism. I you know, her personal

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Speaker 1: decisions are her personal decisions. I'm not going to judge her.

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Speaker 1: I'd certainly not date her, and I'd certainly not want

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Speaker 1: to be in relationship with her, and I'd certainly be

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Speaker 1: recommending that perhaps she ought a look at the pattern

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Speaker 1: of creepy old men she finds herself attracted to and

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Speaker 1: would wonder, what is there a pattern here? But you know,

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Speaker 1: I hope she goes and talks with somebody. I hope

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Speaker 1: she can find some peace and find some therapy on that.

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Speaker 1: You know, the creepy old men that she has associated

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Speaker 1: herself with, none of them are people I would want

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Speaker 1: my son to emulate. They are not role models for anybody,

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Speaker 1: and they maybe one of them may have been a

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Speaker 1: talented broadcaster, but it doesn't mean he is not a

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Speaker 1: despicable human being. One of them may have a famous name,

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Speaker 1: but it doesn't mean he's not a despicable human being.

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Speaker 1: And one of them may have been a former public

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Speaker 1: servant and he seems to be shall we say, morally challenged.

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Speaker 1: But I think one of the three people she's been

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Speaker 1: connected with is not a total scumback two of them

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Speaker 1: that actually might be a debate about whether that description

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Speaker 1: describes them, But I'm gonna leave them nameless because one

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Speaker 1: of them just cares about hearing their name said and

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Speaker 1: is so desperate for relevancy and to profess grievance that

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Speaker 1: that he doesn't know just when to go away, and

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Speaker 1: he certainly has treated anybody that has tried to give

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Speaker 1: him grace. He is treated like crap. And here we

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Speaker 1: have another example of this person treating another human being

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Speaker 1: just horrifically and despicably. But the whole thing, I feel

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Speaker 1: like I'm watching a car wreck that I shouldn't be watching.

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Speaker 1: And yet I will accept the premise that I've been

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Speaker 1: following it like one might follow all my children or

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Speaker 1: days of our lives. But I will say this, it's

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Speaker 1: really a shame that the institution of sort of the

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Speaker 1: media and political media and journalism that people that sort

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Speaker 1: of abuse their privilege of being political journalists like Olivia

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Speaker 1: Newsy has done, has then, you know, sort of disgraces

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Speaker 1: the institution for those of us that have worked really

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Speaker 1: hard to try to build credibility, you know. And this

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Speaker 1: is why it's you know, I can't even I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, she's not alone. It's sort of bringing shame

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Speaker 1: upon the industry that is quote media these days. I mean,

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Speaker 1: what Megan Kelly's bizarre defense that somehow desiring a fifteen

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Speaker 1: year old is different than desiring an eight year old

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Speaker 1: is sort of like that is the weirdest hair to

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Speaker 1: choose to split. It is an obvious play simply for

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Speaker 1: algorithm or to just play Kate. By the way, how

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Speaker 1: embarrassed is she now that even the President wants to

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Speaker 1: release the Epstein files. So, but when you are so

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Speaker 1: concerned about not alienating your audience, if you've wondered here,

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Speaker 1: as you could tell, I am not interested in playkating

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Speaker 1: one side or the other just to build a cheap audience.

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Speaker 1: I respect the folks that choose to come here too

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Speaker 1: much not to tell them the actual reality of the

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Speaker 1: situation as best as I can present it and as

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Speaker 1: best as I see it. I'm not guaranteeing you that

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Speaker 1: I am all knowing or all anything. I am simply

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Speaker 1: telling you I'm giving you the honest assessment based on

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Speaker 1: my experience, based on what I think I'm looking at,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not playing to an algorithm or playing to

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Speaker 1: an audience just to make the audience feel better. And

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Speaker 1: it is shameful that someone like Megan Kelly, who has

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Speaker 1: legacy media credentials and has used them to claim credibility

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Speaker 1: as a media reporter, to then go out there and

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Speaker 1: use whatever remaining credibility she may have with some people

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Speaker 1: to defend pedophilia, to say, well, you know, hey, creepy

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Speaker 1: old men that desire fifteen year olds, they shouldn't be

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Speaker 1: treated as harshly as creepy old men who may desire

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Speaker 1: eight year olds. I mean, come on, you know, stop digging,

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Speaker 1: and you know, you know stop you know I will

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Speaker 1: tell you this. I hate nothing more than her being

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Speaker 1: classified as part of the larger media ecosystem because it

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Speaker 1: brings disrepute on all of us. But hey, I think

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00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 1: this is why so many of you have chosen to

429
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 1: trust individuals and not institutions, because the institutions themselves, I

430
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: have been corrupted in many ways, are corroded by some

431
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 1: of these people, and the best you can do is

432
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 1: to is to focus on individuals. All right, Sorry, my

433
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: crankiness is over. But I mean, I can't believe Vanity Fair,

434
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 1: which which I think feels like it used to be

435
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 1: this sort of prideful news magazine that would would do

436
00:27:55,560 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: aggressive reporting but always grounded in real journalism. I'm sure

437
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 1: they've had reporters who've slept sources in the past, but

438
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: not like this into knowingly hire a reporter who has

439
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 1: done this serially. I think shows you that something has

440
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 1: gone totally off the rails right now at Conde Nast,

441
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: and that's a bummer. That's too bad. I hope somebody

442
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: sobers up given what we're all seeing and witnessing on that.

443
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: All right, very quickly, a few political items. I hope

444
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: you're paying attention. There's a special before the year goes out,

445
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: there's a special election in Tennessee seven. We have seen

446
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 1: that Donald Trumps superpack has dropped a whole bunch of

447
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 1: money into that special election. They're trying to help the

448
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 1: Republican candidate, Mark Van Epps in that one. I will

449
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 1: say this the Democratic candidate. One could argue that the

450
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 1: Democrats didn't get the candidate that they would have won,

451
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 1: that actually could have pulled this upset right in bain Ben.

452
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: I hope I'm pronouncing her name correctly. It's b e

453
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 1: h n Is was the more progressive candidate. It is not.

454
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 1: This is not a Connor Lamb situation or a John

455
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 1: Ossoff situation. Someone that's a little bit closer to the center.

456
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: That quote unquote fits the district. I think Republicans think

457
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 1: they will be able to paint her as just a

458
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: bit too progressive for Tennessee, a bit too progressive for

459
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: the national suburbs. But we're looking at single digits in this,

460
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: you know, I think that I think the fair over

461
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 1: underline on this, if you were going to set a spread,

462
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 1: is somewhere in the five to seven point range, and

463
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 1: I would say over seven you have to feel pretty

464
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 1: good as a Republican that maybe you know, you can

465
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 1: stave off a massive way. But if this is under

466
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: five with a candidate this progressive on the Democratic side,

467
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 1: that means that is all environment, that is all sort

468
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 1: of that lopsided turnout. So you know, I keep an

469
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: eye on it. It's you know, it's obviously it's a

470
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 1: big twenty plus point Trump district. If a Democrat wins Trump,

471
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 1: a Republican would likely win it in a regular general election.

472
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 1: But the fact that Republicans are spending money there is

473
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: just yet another sign that they do have a massive

474
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: turnout issue. Right. Their voters don't come out for these

475
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 1: non presidential elections as it is, and now you have

476
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: sort of an enthusiastic, sort of anti Trump base that

477
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: is surging to the polls, as we've now seen in

478
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 1: these off off your elections. So not surprising that they're

479
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 1: dropping money there. Frankly, it's probably a smart investment and

480
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: it should it should keep things. It probably will keep that,

481
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: keep that district Republican. The other thing that happened just

482
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 1: before I went to I went to air. Here is

483
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: the court ruling in Texas. Now I'm still looking for

484
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 1: some clarification, but it looks like California. You know, So

485
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: if Texas is maps the re redisterting, if the new

486
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: maps right now have been thrown out, the decision will

487
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 1: get appealed. Then we shall see what happens. But if

488
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: they stay thrown out, the California map doesn't revert, even

489
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 1: though originally the original legislation and the proposition was that

490
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: the map, you know that they wouldn't do this if

491
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 1: Texas stood down. Once Texas went through it, they got

492
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 1: rid of that language. So if the Texas maps get

493
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: thrown out but California's maps stay, you want to talk

494
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: about a karma moment for Donald Trump, you know he

495
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: instigated this. We could be in a situation where Democrats

496
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: actually net more seats out of re redistricting because of

497
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 1: the Texas map getting thrown out throughout right, We've already

498
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: seen what happened in Utah. We saw the compromise that

499
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 1: Republicans made with Democrats. In Ohio. We have an Indiana

500
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: state Senator that continues to stand up and say no

501
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: to redistricting, and it looks like that that's at least

502
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,959
Speaker 1: going to prevent a special session. So I don't know

503
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: how they're going to get I don't think they can

504
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 1: will it to happen because the clock is going to

505
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 1: run out. But if they if Republicans can't get a

506
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 1: court to bless this map in Texas, this entire exercise

507
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 1: will have cost them seats, not gain them seats. As

508
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: with the Texas map, it would now tall an open question.

509
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: Does Virginia stand down if the Texas because Virginia is

510
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 1: looking to add yet three or four more to the

511
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: Democratic column, or do Republicans start to put pressure in

512
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: some of these others. Does Florida get aggressive and trying

513
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 1: to change its map and then therefore Virginia stays this.

514
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: So look, we've got a bit of a shake up here.

515
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 1: As I've told you, I still think the re redistricting

516
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 1: wars they're either it's most likely going to be a

517
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 1: net change of no more than two or three to

518
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 1: benefit the Republicans, but if the Texas mech gets thrown out,

519
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 1: it could end up being two or three, then ends

520
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 1: up benefiting the Democrats. And again, those of you that

521
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 1: believe in karma would say, hey, karma is a bitch, right,

522
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 1: Welcome to that world, mister president. But there's an appeals process.

523
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: We'll see what happens here. But you know it, one

524
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 1: would hope the courts would be uncomfortable with the willy

525
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: nilly nature that all of these states and all of

526
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 1: these legislatures are going about the attempt at redistricting every

527
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 1: two years. I was recently doing a I was on

528
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 1: a panel with my friend Brad Todd, a longtime Republican consultant.

529
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 1: He says, you know, he says, the last time that

530
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 1: this country regularly had states redistricting every two years was

531
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 1: the eighteen forties. He goes, I don't want to have

532
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 1: to tell you where what would happen, what happened from

533
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 1: the eighteen forties to the eighteen fifties, and what that

534
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 1: eventually led to. But the point is this re redistricting

535
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 1: is unhealthy for our politics. It's unhealthy for the system.

536
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: It was such a It is such a corrosive thing

537
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump, a war that Donald Trump started, but

538
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 1: now that you have the Democrats willing to engage in it,

539
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: it certainly is creating a landscape for twenty twenty six

540
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 1: that is suddenly looking a lot more bullish for the

541
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 1: Democrats and a lot more bearish for the Republicans. And

542
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:45,320
Speaker 1: throwing out this Texas map would only make a mediocre

543
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 1: environment suddenly look a whole lot worse.

544
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

545
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 2: there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

546
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 2: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered

547
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 2: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

548
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 2: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing,

549
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 2: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

550
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 2: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

551
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

552
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 2: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

553
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 2: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

554
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 2: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred fifty thousand dollars.

555
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 2: So with more than one thousand lawyers across the country,

556
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,240
Speaker 2: they know how to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured,

557
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 2: you need a lawyer. You need somebody to get your back.

558
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 2: Check out for Thepeople dot com, Slash podcast or dial

559
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:45,240
Speaker 2: pound Law Pound five to nine law on your cell phone.

560
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 2: And remember all law firms are not the same. So

561
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 2: check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless

562
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:55,879
Speaker 2: they win. I am sticking with my theme of all

563
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:57,240
Speaker 2: things twenty twenty six.

564
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: As I promised you, it's a top five. It's time,

565
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 1: it's way, which means I have a new top five list,

566
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 1: Top top It's an update. Right. A month ago, I

567
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 1: debuted my top five most likely governor's seats to flip

568
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: parties and at that time this was October, which meant

569
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 1: the Virginia and New Jersey races were part of my

570
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 1: top five. And just to recount my top five in

571
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 1: October of races most likely to change of governor's seats

572
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 1: or governor's mansions, ver you want to describe it, most

573
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 1: likely to flip parties, Number one was Virginia. Number two

574
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 1: was Kansas. Number three was Wisconsin. Number four was Michigan

575
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 1: and number five was Iowa. Now what do all five

576
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 1: of those races have in common? They're all open seats.

577
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: And as I will say every time I talk about

578
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 1: governor's races, one of the hard the hardest things to

579
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 1: do in politics is to defeat a sitting governor after

580
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,959
Speaker 1: they've served only one term. It just rarely happens. Frank

581
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 1: Murkowski is one of the few examples where it happened,

582
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 1: when Sarah Palin defeated Lisa Markowski's father in a primary

583
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: after he had served one term. But it is not easy.

584
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: Joe Lombardo defeated Governor Sicilac out of Steve Sicilac out

585
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 1: of Nevada in twenty twenty two, not the easiest thing

586
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 1: to defeat a sitting of the only I think he

587
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 1: was the only incumbent to lose statewide on the Democratic

588
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 1: side in twenty twenty two Senate or governor. So that

589
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:43,800
Speaker 1: is just how difficult it is voters in general, unless

590
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 1: they really can't stand their governor and they do something

591
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 1: sort of just something that they never thought that they

592
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,280
Speaker 1: would do. And in Sicilac's casey shut down the strip

593
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: right like get out. That's why he lost reelection. He

594
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 1: shut the strip down during COVID and that had all

595
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 1: sorts of massive economic fallout for Nevada residents, which explains

596
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:07,320
Speaker 1: the point is you're my top five list will likely

597
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 1: not include a sitting governor. In fact, I think if

598
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 1: you're wondering which incumbent governor is the most vulnerable in

599
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 1: the country, I will tell you it is Katie Hobbs

600
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: in Arizona. Of all the incumbent governors seeking reelection, she's

601
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:28,799
Speaker 1: probably at the most vulnerable. She narrowly won over Carrie

602
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 1: Lake the first time. She's not the most front facing

603
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 1: candidate she is. There isn't going to be a Senate

604
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 1: race that becomes the bigger attention seeker. Her race is

605
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 1: going to be the front and center race in swing

606
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: state Arizona. And if Congressman David Schweikert, who is represented

607
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 1: a swing district in Arizona, ends up the Republican nominee,

608
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 1: I think she's in for a real nail buyer. So

609
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 1: I will say she does not make my top at

610
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 1: the moment of five most vulnerable to flip because I

611
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: will tell you there's a whole bunch more open seats

612
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 1: that are more likely to flip parties first before we

613
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: get to Arizona. But if you told me sometime between

614
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,959
Speaker 1: now and next November, Arizona makes it intoto my top five,

615
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 1: it would be the one state with an incumbent governor

616
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: that I think that it's likely to do that. So

617
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 1: with that said, my top five number one now, and

618
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 1: I think it's it's fair to put this. It's Kansas. Now.

619
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,720
Speaker 1: It's interesting. I have a little update on Kansas Lora Kelly,

620
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 1: who's term limited, and it is worth noting that Democrats

621
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 1: have had the governor's office sixteen of the last twenty

622
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: four years, right had Kathleen Sibelius, then had and you

623
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 1: had your eight years of Brown back, and then you

624
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 1: had eight years of lor Kelly. Now she has endorsed

625
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 1: her successor, a state Senator by the name of Ethan Carson.

626
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 1: Excuse me, Ethan corson co R so O N my

627
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 1: apologies there. She claims that he's going to be that

628
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,879
Speaker 1: he's the Democrat, he's in a primary, but that he's

629
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:19,359
Speaker 1: the Democrat best position to continue to appeal to sort

630
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 1: of moderate Republicans and independents, which is what lor Kelly

631
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 1: has successfully done in order to win in Kansas, we'll

632
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: see Kathleen Sibilius had her own successor and that person

633
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 1: couldn't win. So look, I do think you're likely to

634
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 1: see the windshield wiper effect take place in Kansas, which

635
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 1: is why you've got to make it's somewhat of a

636
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: crowded Republican primary. But I think it's fair to put

637
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 1: that you got to put that seat is most likely

638
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:53,399
Speaker 1: to flip at the moment. Right, it's the most Republican

639
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 1: state with a democratic open seat in the governors in

640
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 1: all of the governor's races. Because of that, I think

641
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 1: you have to put Kansas in the one spot, So

642
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 1: number two. Last week I had it at number tho

643
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 1: last month, excuse me, I had it at number three.

644
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 1: I am putting it at number two. I mean, the

645
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 1: fact is the Democrats are in the tougher position in

646
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:20,760
Speaker 1: this three way race, right. You know, if Dougan catches fire,

647
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 1: it's at the expense of the Democrats. If Dugan doesn't

648
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 1: catch fire but still gets low double digits, it's at

649
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 1: the expense of the Democrat. So there are not a

650
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 1: ton of scenarios that give in this case, that put

651
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 1: the advantage in the in the Democrats column here on

652
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 1: this one. So I think you have to put you know,

653
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 1: if I've got Kansas in the number one slot, I

654
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: think you have to put Michigan is the second most

655
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:51,280
Speaker 1: likely state not to have a Democratics the same party

656
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:56,919
Speaker 1: succeed the party the incumbent party, in this case, the Democrats. Look,

657
00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 1: I will continue to say that I think the state

658
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 1: of Michigan is the single most important set of primaries.

659
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 1: That Democratic primary in the Senate campaign is going to

660
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:13,240
Speaker 1: be just, you know, just what direction does the party

661
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 1: go in that Senate race. If you have a progressive

662
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 1: like Abdul say Ed who ends up not just the nominee,

663
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: but wins that senen see, it will be it will

664
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,839
Speaker 1: help set the tone of what the primary debate about

665
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: Israel looks like. In the Democratic presidential primaries. The point is, boy,

666
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 1: what happens in Michigan. This three way governor's race and

667
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 1: a general election, that Democratic primary and Senate race, it's

668
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 1: just so many. If you're a serious political reporter and

669
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 1: you want to make a name for yourself, plant yourself

670
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 1: in the state of Michigan. Anyway, So Michigan in my

671
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 1: number two slot. Look, and then number three right now,

672
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: I'm going to put battleground state Georgia, and this is

673
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 1: the new entry into my top five list, and I'm

674
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: the case I make and on why Georgia now is

675
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 1: here is what happened in the off off year elections.

676
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 1: I think when you it's the same reason why I

677
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 1: dropped Osoft down the list of Senate seats most likely

678
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 1: to flip in our last top five and why I

679
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: rise the Georgia governor's race. I thought this would be

680
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 1: a competitive race, but slight advantage to the Republicans. But

681
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 1: what happened in those Public Service Commission races where Democrats

682
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 1: won by double digits. And if you've got a turnout

683
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 1: and you've got a week Senate field, you've got a

684
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:38,399
Speaker 1: well funded incumbent candidate in John Ossoff, you have a

685
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 1: very competent potential gubernatorial nominee uh in Keisha Keisha Lance Bottoms,

686
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 1: and she is I think very electable statewide, was not

687
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: somebody that alienated the business community as mayor of Atlanta.

688
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 1: So you put this combination up there and suddenly you've

689
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 1: I just feel a lot more bullish about Democrats in

690
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 1: general and their chances in Georgia, right now than I've

691
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: had in a while, even more so than the success

692
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: the Democrats had in the twenty twenty campaign, right, sort

693
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 1: of the most successful year that they've ever had in

694
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 1: Georgia in this century, where they carry the presidency and

695
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:22,399
Speaker 1: won two sentence seats thanks to runoffs. By the way,

696
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 1: considering that we're going to have super competitive races, in

697
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 1: the likelihood there'll be some libertarian candidate on the ballot,

698
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 1: the likelihood we have runoff somewhere in Georgia in December

699
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty six is probably higher than we any

700
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 1: of us want to contemplate at this moment. But just

701
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 1: put that in the back of your memory bank, that

702
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,800
Speaker 1: that is coming. So number one, Kansas, number two, Michigan,

703
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 1: number three, Georgia in the four spot. I got to

704
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 1: put Wisconsin pretty much for the same reason. Why Michigan

705
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 1: is there, Why Kansas is there? This is an open seat.

706
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,319
Speaker 1: Wisconsin's been a bit of a windshield wiper at least

707
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 1: in the twenty first century. Eight years one party, eight

708
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:04,879
Speaker 1: years the other. And here we go again for Democrats.

709
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 1: Will the national win blowing at their back allow them

710
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 1: to overcome what could be a state wind blowing in

711
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 1: their faith. Well didn't hurt Mikey Sheryl in New Jersey

712
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 1: right where the let you know, where you had an

713
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 1: outgoing governor that wasn't super popular. He wasn't super unpopular either,

714
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: but he was sort of middly, if you will. He

715
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: certainly had a lower job rating than Glenn Younkin had

716
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 1: in Virginia. And so, you know, you just just due

717
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 1: to the swinging nature of Wisconsin, you had to put

718
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 1: that in the four slot and in the five slot.

719
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 1: I'm going to keep the same. And it's simply because

720
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: Democrats have their candidate and Republicans don't yet, because there's

721
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 1: going to be a competitive primary and that's Iowa, and

722
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 1: you have the Democratic Canada rob saying you just got

723
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 1: to know Josh Turreck a little bit. It does appear

724
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 1: as if the sort of populous, sort of more culturally

725
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:07,839
Speaker 1: conservative but economic populous wing of the Democratic Party is

726
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:11,399
Speaker 1: flexing its muscle in Iowa. If that is what if

727
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 1: you see that sort of if that is that the

728
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 1: unofficial ticket that is leading statewide in Iowa, that puts

729
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: them in a strong position. And I happen to believe

730
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 1: Iowa is a lot more winnable for Democrats than Ohio is.

731
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 1: Even though I suspect the Ohio governor's race to be

732
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 1: quite close. We're still waiting for Tim Ryan to make

733
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:36,840
Speaker 1: a decision on that one. I'm not ready to put

734
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 1: Ohio in any top five list on that front, but

735
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 1: I am with Iowa. So to recap my top five

736
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 1: for this month, the five governors mansions most likely to

737
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 1: flip Kansas one, Michigan two, Georgia three, Wisconsin four, Iowa five.

738
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: And I think when you look at that, it's three Democratic,

739
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 1: it's three Republican held seats, two Democratic health seats. No

740
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:10,760
Speaker 1: excuse me, three Democratic health seats, two Republican health seats.

741
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 1: I think it's because you've seen Democrats had some good

742
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 1: success in twenty eighteen, winning in some light red states

743
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 1: now and in the swing states they're about to give that.

744
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 1: You know, now those folks are term limited and the

745
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 1: party is lucking out that it's likely they'll have the

746
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 1: win that they're back. So one would assume they hold

747
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:39,359
Speaker 1: at least two of those three important Midwestern in states

748
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,359
Speaker 1: that they want to hold Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. By

749
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 1: the way, in case you're wondering, the following races I

750
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 1: contemplated for this top five list. I told you about Arizona.

751
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:53,239
Speaker 1: I think Katie Obbs is the most vulnerable incumbent in

752
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 1: the country. But again I have my caveats there. The

753
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 1: hardest thing to do in politics, other than outstates sitting

754
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 1: one term president, is to outstay sitting one term governor.

755
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:08,360
Speaker 1: Other seats that I are in my competitive category that

756
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 1: I did contemplate for this top five Maine, an open

757
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 1: seat there, Nevada, Joe Lombardo the sitting you know he

758
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,479
Speaker 1: just won. You know this is a swingy state. We'll see.

759
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:23,720
Speaker 1: I think I think Lombardo's in pretty good shape for reelection,

760
00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:25,840
Speaker 1: but it's going to be tight, and he certainly is

761
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 1: running a bit against a We think it's going to

762
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 1: be a breeze against him. Ohio and the open seat

763
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 1: in Alaska. But until we find out the full field

764
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: in Alaska, what does Mary Patello do before I'm willing

765
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 1: to put Alaska truly in the very very competitive column.

766
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 1: So there you go my top five list this week.

767
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 1: Ask Chuck, all right, little last Chuck, I apologize for

768
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:58,840
Speaker 1: not doing any ass check last week or excuse me,

769
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 1: last episode. I was as many of you know, I've

770
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,319
Speaker 1: been traveling a lot, so I was a bit behind

771
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:07,479
Speaker 1: on the question front, and I want to ask a bunch.

772
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:09,800
Speaker 1: I promise you next week I'm gonna have a heavy

773
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:12,879
Speaker 1: dose of questions so that I can get to as

774
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 1: many of them as you've been sending in over the

775
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 1: last few weeks. And we have a ton of terrific questions.

776
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 1: So this one comes from Amy from I'm gonna see

777
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 1: if I get this right. Amy is writing from Sheppichett,

778
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: Rhode Island. It's spelled c chp a c ch t.

779
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:32,919
Speaker 1: I'm assuming a soft ce on that SHEPPI set. Maybe

780
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:37,879
Speaker 1: it's chepichet. Somebody will tell me. And Amy writes, Dear Chuck,

781
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 1: If and when the Epstein File's are released, can we

782
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 1: really trust they're complete and untouched? Probably not. They've been

783
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:45,839
Speaker 1: floating around for years and we've been told many eyes,

784
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:47,959
Speaker 1: every few of them recently appreciate the podcasts or trust

785
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 1: you and always learn something new. Look. I think, unfortunately

786
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 1: the way this situation has been handled, I think there's

787
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of questions about what we see

788
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 1: and in fact we are, you know, in some ways

789
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 1: the Epstein File it entered the Oswald files territory right

790
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 1: with JFK. The government's withheld those files for so long

791
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 1: that what they do release you assume you can't trust

792
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:12,880
Speaker 1: what you've seen. So this is a case where an

793
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:18,320
Speaker 1: untrustworthy institution is releasing files that you've been skeptical of anyway,

794
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 1: So I understand the skepticism on this. Look, I suspect

795
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 1: that we're not going to see these files for a while.

796
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 1: I suspect that you're going to see an amendment in

797
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 1: the you know, let's see what the Senate does. Do

798
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 1: they add any caveats to it, or do they vote

799
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 1: on it untouched. There's been a little bit of back

800
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 1: and forth on that, but I think the most likely

801
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 1: result is there's an open investigation that Pambondi just opened

802
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 1: on Democrats connected to Epstein, and that that will serve

803
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 1: as the pretext for not releasing anything at least in

804
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 1: the immediate future. Maybe we get them on January nineteenth,

805
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:02,359
Speaker 1: twenty twenty nine. Just something think about. But yes, I'm

806
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 1: very skeptical that we're still going to see it. But

807
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:08,840
Speaker 1: we'll see Thomas in Montana, right, Chuck, Thanks for what

808
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: you do. I don't always agree, but I always walk

809
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:12,880
Speaker 1: away more informed. I even subscribe to a new local

810
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 1: weekly paper. Right on, quick question, are you aware of

811
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 1: the football game this week in Missoula, Montana? It's kat Griz.

812
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:22,360
Speaker 1: I'm aware of the rivalry aka the Brawl of the Wild,

813
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:24,880
Speaker 1: A fierce rivalry game with big states and bigger emotions.

814
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 1: One team might win fifty to ten, but nobody knows which.

815
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 1: It's one of the most captivating events in college sports.

816
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,560
Speaker 1: Thomas and Montana, you are right, this is one of

817
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:38,400
Speaker 1: I am. I've spent a lion's share of my first

818
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: college football season away from NBC, mostly focused on my

819
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:46,720
Speaker 1: University of Miami Hurricanes. But within the next couple of years,

820
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:50,280
Speaker 1: I plan to embark on what I call a rivalry tour.

821
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:54,360
Speaker 1: If you will missus. Todd is a huge college football

822
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:57,239
Speaker 1: fan as well. We've talked about this. We want to

823
00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 1: go to Michigan, Ohiose State. I want to go to

824
00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 1: Iowa State, Iowa. She's been to Iowa State, IOA. I

825
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 1: have not. She's been a noted name USC, I have not.

826
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 1: I'd like to go to Montana Montana State. First of all,

827
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 1: it's a great excuse to get up to Montana, and

828
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:16,319
Speaker 1: that is a great one. I want to go to

829
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 1: an Auburn Alabama game, so I am well aware of that.

830
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 1: One one of my longtime sources that I've dealt with

831
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:26,640
Speaker 1: over the years off and on is a former Obama

832
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:30,279
Speaker 1: campaign hand named Jim Messina. He's a Montana native. There's

833
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 1: nothing like getting him to talk about this rivalry. So

834
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 1: one of I will confess. One of the great currencies

835
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:41,520
Speaker 1: I've used as a reporter over the years is college football.

836
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 1: It is it is a it is a common language

837
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:50,480
Speaker 1: that I've used to, you know, to get to know

838
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 1: sources that you need to report on politics and a

839
00:52:55,239 --> 00:53:02,319
Speaker 1: good political good political strategists, good political candidates, whether they

840
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 1: like college football or not, know how to talk about

841
00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:09,239
Speaker 1: college football rivalries. Anyway, Thank you for that reminder. And

842
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 1: let's just say that's that's going to be one we

843
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:13,960
Speaker 1: all need to pay attention to. Regardless. Yes it's an

844
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 1: FCS but I'll tell you if they had, you know,

845
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 1: one of those one of those Montana schools are goa

846
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 1: be Both of them have the passionate fan base that

847
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: you know, they could make a pretty good FBS team.

848
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:34,840
Speaker 1: You know, it does feel like those plain states between

849
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 1: the Dakotas and Montana. There's some really good FCS football

850
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 1: up there. When they play any teams in the division above,

851
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:45,840
Speaker 1: they can sometimes give some scare so I'm well aware

852
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 1: it's very much quality football. All right. Next question comes

853
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:51,319
Speaker 1: from Lee Heck. Oh I think I know Lee. I

854
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 1: know Lee Heck in Seattle. Hey Lee, this is an

855
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 1: old friend. Anyway, Hey, check love the election live stream

856
00:53:58,120 --> 00:53:59,880
Speaker 1: and now I have a soft spot for the newsgirls.

857
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,840
Speaker 1: Good as you should their terrific subscribe to their podcast.

858
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:05,879
Speaker 1: I'm wondering if your view on Californias we're justtring voter

859
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:08,319
Speaker 1: shifted after Tuesday give them the growing national momentum. Well,

860
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 1: I still favorite independent comissions. I understand the strategy to

861
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:13,240
Speaker 1: office at GOP controlled stage. Also, it's a lifelong Hoosier.

862
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:15,480
Speaker 1: It's been thrilling to see how you football finally shine.

863
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:19,239
Speaker 1: Now we just need basketball to catch up. Yeah, I know.

864
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 1: I feel sorry for the basketball coach right now in Indiana.

865
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:24,879
Speaker 1: Right now, there's so much more pressure to perform. If

866
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 1: the football team can do it, then why the hell

867
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 1: can't who's your basketball get there? Get their crap together?

868
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:34,279
Speaker 1: Look as look, Hey, I you should check out the

869
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 1: column I wrote this week on substack, which is all

870
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 1: about Gavin Newsom and the vacuum he has filled for

871
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people who have felt frustrated

872
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,720
Speaker 1: that the Democrats don't know how to fight back against Trump.

873
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:53,000
Speaker 1: It's I am, I am not gonna I'm not going

874
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 1: to be one over that this is a good idea.

875
00:54:55,239 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 1: I think making fewer congressional seats COMPA is bad for

876
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 1: American politics, and that is the ultimate what is the

877
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:06,319
Speaker 1: what is the consequence of all this. We now have

878
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 1: fewer competitive seats. That's bad. That means there are fewer

879
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:16,680
Speaker 1: races in America that are sort of you know that

880
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 1: the people having it can have an impact on right.

881
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 1: There are fewer that are deciding the balance of power.

882
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:31,760
Speaker 1: That's not healthy. But I understand the uh, I understand

883
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:35,799
Speaker 1: the tactic, and it's been a very successful CounterPunch to

884
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 1: the point, you know, I'm I am. I am relieved

885
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 1: to know that there are courts that think we shouldn't

886
00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:45,720
Speaker 1: be doing this willy nilly re redistricting every two years.

887
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 1: So kudos to the to the court in Texas to

888
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:52,760
Speaker 1: putting a pause on what's happening there. And it could

889
00:55:52,800 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 1: mean that that that a court challenge to California is

890
00:55:56,400 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 1: redistricting could have an impact here. But what I will

891
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:07,839
Speaker 1: say is I do think it is certainly fired up Democrats,

892
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:12,040
Speaker 1: and it has really been good for Gavin Newsom. And

893
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 1: one thing that I that is crystal clear to me

894
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 1: is that there is an appetite in the base of

895
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party for a fighter at this moment to

896
00:56:21,080 --> 00:56:23,920
Speaker 1: fight back, to figure out if you have power, do

897
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 1: you know how to use it when they're trying to

898
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 1: wedge you with the power that they have. And I

899
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 1: think what you saw in Gavin Newsom was an ability

900
00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 1: to figure out how to use power when he felt

901
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 1: is necessary. You're gonna have a hard time convincing me

902
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: this is good governance. I accept the premise we are

903
00:56:41,920 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 1: necessarily in a good governance moment, and I do think

904
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:50,440
Speaker 1: the unintended consequence is less competition, which is bad for everybody.

905
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:53,719
Speaker 1: I can't sit here and say it has not been

906
00:56:53,760 --> 00:57:00,000
Speaker 1: tactically successful for Democrats. Michael T from Chicago always pretty

907
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 1: you're inside. I'm curious what you think about Fox. Ititis

908
00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:04,680
Speaker 1: this idea that about thirty percent of the country fully

909
00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:07,720
Speaker 1: believes the misinformation Fox spreads. My retired father now watches

910
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 1: it from morning tonight and it's convinced Trump and Magar

911
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:12,720
Speaker 1: are the solution everything. My siblings and I tread family

912
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 1: gatherings because all he wants to do is educate us

913
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 1: with Fox talking points. How can we save our democracy

914
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:20,440
Speaker 1: when so many people are trapped in this misinformation bubble?

915
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:27,480
Speaker 1: Michael T Look, it's unfortunately we know this disease, and

916
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:30,480
Speaker 1: I by the way it exists with those that just

917
00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 1: sit in front of MSNBC or MS now and watch

918
00:57:35,000 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 1: it ten hours a day. You know what's unhealthy watching

919
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 1: one stream of anything for eight to ten hours a day.

920
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:47,560
Speaker 1: And for many retirees, many older folks, I do think

921
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 1: that Fox and MS and even Seeing End or lesser

922
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:57,439
Speaker 1: extent are sort of their background comfort, right, They're sort

923
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 1: of you know, if you're living alone, they provide some

924
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:05,480
Speaker 1: noise so it doesn't feel so lonely. And yes, it

925
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 1: has I think it has a corrosive Uh, it can

926
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 1: have a corrosive effect, especially you know, over over time.

927
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 1: And you know, I can tell you I've got relatives

928
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 1: who watch I might argue, watch too much of MS

929
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:24,840
Speaker 1: and they are convinced that literally the republic is going

930
00:58:24,880 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 1: to fall within days. Just like there are folks that

931
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 1: I discover who watch so much Fox that are convinced

932
00:58:31,880 --> 00:58:34,440
Speaker 1: that there is some sort of communist conspiracy that is

933
00:58:34,480 --> 00:58:40,680
Speaker 1: taken over the Democratic Party. Can I make you feel

934
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:43,480
Speaker 1: better that the average age of a viewer of any

935
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:47,840
Speaker 1: cable news is now seventy plus, that this is an

936
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:52,400
Speaker 1: aging demographic that is listening to this. I would argue

937
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:57,280
Speaker 1: that it is no more influential than talk radio was

938
00:58:57,400 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 1: thirty years ago. On those that just allowed rush Limbaugh

939
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:04,040
Speaker 1: to sort of program their brains for three hours a

940
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 1: day as they were, you know, doing you know, driving

941
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:10,120
Speaker 1: around with sales or marketing and things like that for

942
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:13,680
Speaker 1: the for the for the for the traveling sales uh,

943
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 1: the salesforce that was out there, or those that make

944
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 1: it made a living driving. So I I I think

945
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:27,920
Speaker 1: you might have asked that a generation before would have

946
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:31,040
Speaker 1: talked about talk radio and you know, hey, you know,

947
00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:33,760
Speaker 1: I've got a father who listens to too much talk

948
00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 1: radio and he seems to believe everything that comes out

949
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 1: of Rush Limbaugh. Right, So.

950
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:40,000
Speaker 2: It is.

951
00:59:40,200 --> 00:59:43,080
Speaker 1: I think the real danger is are the lack of

952
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:46,080
Speaker 1: you know, the way the algorithms work, that the algorithms

953
00:59:46,120 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 1: don't allow us to diversify our news streams don't allow it.

954
00:59:50,520 --> 00:59:53,440
Speaker 1: It is really difficult to diversify your new stream. I

955
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 1: have an unusual feed, right, but I have intentionally created

956
00:59:58,280 --> 01:00:02,640
Speaker 1: a feed that is as as you know, as sort

957
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 1: of whiplashy as you can get because I'm trying to

958
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 1: keep track of the crazy MAGA, right, I'm trying to

959
01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 1: keep track of the democratic socialist left, including the crazy

960
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 1: version of the democratic socialist left as well as you know.

961
01:00:17,440 --> 01:00:19,560
Speaker 1: I think there are mainstream MEGA, and I think there's

962
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 1: crazy MEGA. I think there's mainstream democratic socialism. I think

963
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:28,920
Speaker 1: there's crazy democratic socialists. So I'm trying to understand that

964
01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 1: if the full spectrum that's out there, but you have

965
01:00:32,440 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 1: to intentionally do it as a feed, and it is.

966
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 1: It is more and more difficult because some people have

967
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:40,120
Speaker 1: simply left X because they because it's clear that Elon

968
01:00:40,240 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 1: Musk is sort of screwed with the algorithms to sort

969
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 1: of suppress one side of the aisle and he sort

970
01:00:46,800 --> 01:00:49,200
Speaker 1: of amplifies the other side of the aisle, which also

971
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:53,240
Speaker 1: can be screwy with your feet. But I think the

972
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:56,360
Speaker 1: thing that is most dangerous is this is the is

973
01:00:56,400 --> 01:01:01,080
Speaker 1: the algorithmic driven bubbles. Right, Cable has fallen prey to this,

974
01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:04,000
Speaker 1: But this is just as much of a problem on

975
01:01:04,080 --> 01:01:07,840
Speaker 1: TikTok with young people and only getting one you know,

976
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 1: a source, you know, one sided source there. I mean,

977
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:13,880
Speaker 1: this is I wish this were an isolated issue, just

978
01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:16,440
Speaker 1: with fox eyness. But I guess my point is that

979
01:01:16,560 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 1: we sort of we're almost a tapestry of these bubbles,

980
01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:25,360
Speaker 1: and I think they've all been pretty destructive on the

981
01:01:25,360 --> 01:01:30,320
Speaker 1: information ecosystem. That's the core issue, right, The information ecosystem

982
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:36,960
Speaker 1: currently has an incentive structure, that is, that pushes us

983
01:01:36,960 --> 01:01:43,960
Speaker 1: away from quality information and pushes us towards amplification and affirmation.

984
01:01:46,480 --> 01:01:50,520
Speaker 1: All right, Next question comes from Joshua Bee and he

985
01:01:50,560 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 1: simply writes, does Amy Acting or Tim Ryan give give

986
01:01:53,480 --> 01:01:56,200
Speaker 1: Democrats the best shot? Does Amy Acting or Tim Ryan

987
01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:58,080
Speaker 1: give Democrats the best shot at winning the twenty twenty

988
01:01:58,080 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 1: six Ohio Governor's race. You know, it's interesting, I'm I

989
01:02:02,560 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 1: I know both of these Democrats pretty well. I know

990
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 1: Vivik Ramaswami somewhat well as two and in fact he

991
01:02:12,640 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 1: this is one of those races where I've I think

992
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:16,880
Speaker 1: I've hosted all three of them at various times as

993
01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 1: podcast guests and various iterations. I find them all to

994
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:25,240
Speaker 1: be interesting conversationalists. I learned something from all three of them.

995
01:02:25,280 --> 01:02:27,480
Speaker 1: This is I could make a case this could be

996
01:02:27,520 --> 01:02:32,680
Speaker 1: the smartest set of candidates for governor that you could have.

997
01:02:33,240 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not I don't want to make a

998
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 1: moral or ethical judgment about about that. I have a

999
01:02:39,760 --> 01:02:44,960
Speaker 1: feeling you may have some strong feelings about Ramaswami, but

1000
01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:47,160
Speaker 1: I'll tell you this. I think ramas Swami is a

1001
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:53,720
Speaker 1: weak potential Republican nominee. I think, uh connection with Doge

1002
01:02:53,800 --> 01:03:01,120
Speaker 1: isn't that negative? I think that it's you know, Amy

1003
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:05,880
Speaker 1: acting being Mike Dewin's former health advisor. Is that a help? Now?

1004
01:03:05,960 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 1: I'm I think there's such a negative view of COVID

1005
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:15,920
Speaker 1: that even though I think Amy acting frankly would be

1006
01:03:16,800 --> 01:03:25,920
Speaker 1: a fascinating governor, I don't know if leaning into COVID

1007
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:30,200
Speaker 1: or having that be your origin story on the political

1008
01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:32,960
Speaker 1: map is a net positive, right. I just think people

1009
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 1: are so they don't want to think about COVID, and

1010
01:03:35,640 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 1: so I don't know if that just costs her a

1011
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:42,360
Speaker 1: couple of you know, makes her a weaker candidate. But

1012
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 1: Tim Ryan feels like a serial candidate for office, right,

1013
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:46,960
Speaker 1: how much does he really want to be governor? He

1014
01:03:47,040 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 1: just ran for Senate and lost? Is he just looking

1015
01:03:49,400 --> 01:03:52,720
Speaker 1: for is this a stepping stone? Right? He thought about

1016
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:55,000
Speaker 1: running for president in twenty twenty almost did it right,

1017
01:03:55,080 --> 01:03:57,600
Speaker 1: you know? Or is he really serious about being governor?

1018
01:03:57,640 --> 01:04:03,560
Speaker 1: And why hasn't he gotten in yet? Right? And he's

1019
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:07,680
Speaker 1: gotten in bed with the crypto world, which I don't

1020
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 1: know whether that's a net positive because it neutralizes the

1021
01:04:10,680 --> 01:04:13,600
Speaker 1: issue and they won't all come in for Ramaswami, or

1022
01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:17,480
Speaker 1: it neutralizes it in a way that's a net negative

1023
01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:20,440
Speaker 1: for Ryan if you are a cryptoskeptic, or you're worried

1024
01:04:20,480 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 1: about sort of how Silicon Valley has there has entrenched

1025
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:29,360
Speaker 1: themselves in the campaign. So I could make a case

1026
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 1: that either one of the I guess on paper, I

1027
01:04:34,040 --> 01:04:41,680
Speaker 1: think Tim Ryan's probably the slightly stronger profile, and it's

1028
01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:44,400
Speaker 1: simply due to COVID fatigue and the fact that the

1029
01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:49,240
Speaker 1: electorate just and that doctor Acton could just be could

1030
01:04:49,280 --> 01:04:51,880
Speaker 1: be a reminder of something that many voters just want

1031
01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:56,360
Speaker 1: to compartmentalize and not talk about. But here's what I

1032
01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:59,680
Speaker 1: do believe. I think Ramaswami is the among the weaker.

1033
01:04:59,720 --> 01:05:02,560
Speaker 1: Can that's they could get for governor. I think this

1034
01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:05,240
Speaker 1: is a more winnable race than Democrats have treated it.

1035
01:05:06,040 --> 01:05:08,960
Speaker 1: I think, Ohio, I say this, it's light red, not

1036
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:13,920
Speaker 1: dark red. And if there was ever a if there,

1037
01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:16,440
Speaker 1: now you know, I really think would have been the

1038
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:19,240
Speaker 1: strongest candidate for governor wouldn't have been either Amy Actor

1039
01:05:19,360 --> 01:05:23,120
Speaker 1: or Tim Ryan. It had been Shared Brown. Just something

1040
01:05:23,120 --> 01:05:26,040
Speaker 1: to think about, all right, last question? And then I

1041
01:05:26,080 --> 01:05:28,480
Speaker 1: got and then we'll call it. We'll call it a podcast.

1042
01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:31,240
Speaker 1: This comes from Jacob. He says, Hey, Chuck, loving the

1043
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:33,479
Speaker 1: new podcast. It actually reminds me of Peter King's Monday

1044
01:05:33,480 --> 01:05:36,360
Speaker 1: Morning Quarterback. I'll take that as high praise. I like

1045
01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:39,640
Speaker 1: that podcast. Peter King's a friend. I like Peter, especially

1046
01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:41,960
Speaker 1: how your football segment's had a personal, engaging touch. I

1047
01:05:41,960 --> 01:05:45,160
Speaker 1: wanted to suggest a Netflix style docu series on conspiracy theories.

1048
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:48,840
Speaker 1: Oh buddy, I have I have a treatment already written

1049
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:51,080
Speaker 1: on this stuff. But this is great, Jacob, Can I

1050
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:52,720
Speaker 1: get you to get a job in Netflix so they

1051
01:05:52,760 --> 01:05:55,560
Speaker 1: could greenlight this series. But anyway, you've already touched on

1052
01:05:55,560 --> 01:05:58,320
Speaker 1: the Nixon tapes. JFK and Jonestown, and with the rise

1053
01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:02,080
Speaker 1: in UFO sightings and current there's plenty to explore. A

1054
01:06:02,080 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 1: short three episode series could really work. Keep up the

1055
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:06,400
Speaker 1: great work, looking forward to more. Look. I think it's

1056
01:06:06,400 --> 01:06:09,200
Speaker 1: a great idea. And here's why. I think conspiracy theories

1057
01:06:09,760 --> 01:06:14,240
Speaker 1: actually are a terrific sort of way to engage the

1058
01:06:14,280 --> 01:06:19,280
Speaker 1: public in learning how to critically think. There is a

1059
01:06:19,960 --> 01:06:23,680
Speaker 1: Florida State University a couple of years ago started a

1060
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:28,400
Speaker 1: class that was essentially about news literacy, but instead of

1061
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:31,040
Speaker 1: calling it about news literacy, they called it Introduction to

1062
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:34,640
Speaker 1: conspiracy theory. And the point being is that and I

1063
01:06:34,680 --> 01:06:38,960
Speaker 1: could do this. I could make a forty seven forty

1064
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:44,640
Speaker 1: seven part series on presidential conspiracy theories, because every single

1065
01:06:44,720 --> 01:06:49,600
Speaker 1: president has had some conspiracy theory dog them, and learning

1066
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Speaker 1: how that conspiracy theory got traction helps you understand the

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Speaker 1: media ecosystem right of that era, whether it's about Warren

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Speaker 1: Harding and Teapot Dome, whether it's about James Garfield and

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01:07:03,360 --> 01:07:09,040
Speaker 1: and and Roscoe Conkling, or whether it's about JFK. Or

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Speaker 1: whether it's about Nixon or or or the Trilateral Commission.

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Speaker 1: Right we can and George W. George H. W. Bush

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Speaker 1: Whitewater and Vince Foster and Bill Clinton. But when you

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Speaker 1: when explaining every presidential conspiracy theory, it's actually a terrific

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Speaker 1: way to get people to understand sort of. When you

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Speaker 1: understand how a conspiracy theory takes takes hold, then it

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Speaker 1: just helps you be a better critical thinker when it

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Speaker 1: comes to consuming news and information period. So uh, and oh,

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Speaker 1: by the way you entertain people at the same time,

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Speaker 1: that's the sweet spot. And I'm a huge look. I

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Speaker 1: believe at the end of the day, what we're really doing.

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Speaker 1: What if my podcast is or a failure based on

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Speaker 1: whether I'm educating, And if I'm educating, I think I'm

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01:08:05,240 --> 01:08:08,520
Speaker 1: doing something successful. If I'm not educating you and making

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01:08:08,520 --> 01:08:10,800
Speaker 1: you smarter and making you understand something better than I'm

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Speaker 1: not doing my job. And I think in some ways,

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Speaker 1: the best way to educate people about news consumption, the

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Speaker 1: best way to educate people sometimes about American history is

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Speaker 1: to make the entry point something shocking and tabloid, like

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01:08:26,160 --> 01:08:29,840
Speaker 1: a conspiracy theory, and you suck them in with that,

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Speaker 1: and then you accidentally teach them about American and oh,

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01:08:33,439 --> 01:08:38,000
Speaker 1: they're accidentally better better in formed. So love where you're headed.

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Speaker 1: Love where you're thinking, and hey, Netflix, if you're listening,

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Speaker 1: we could be doing a lot more of these, you know,

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01:08:47,880 --> 01:08:50,120
Speaker 1: instead of doing cliff notes of history like you did

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01:08:50,200 --> 01:08:53,080
Speaker 1: with Death by Lightning, where you it's sort of I

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01:08:53,160 --> 01:08:56,200
Speaker 1: find myself ultimately disappointed in this Garf and Death by

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01:08:56,240 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 1: Lightning because yes, there's so much they could have done better,

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01:09:01,360 --> 01:09:03,479
Speaker 1: and there's so much more of the era that they

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Speaker 1: could have you know. It literally is like a tasting menu,

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Speaker 1: like having a taste of what could be an incredible meal.

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Speaker 1: If Netflix would have let Benioffen Whites do what would

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Speaker 1: have made an incredible meal, an eight or a ten

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Speaker 1: part docus series on st of the Rise and follow

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Speaker 1: Carfield anyway, with that, with that programming lineup, getting ready

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Speaker 1: to be prepared in the back of my brain, I'll

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Speaker 1: see in twenty four hours, ten minutes, Okay,