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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Wall Street gives a big f to the tariff regime

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Speaker 2: rolled out yesterday by President Donald Trump. It's my job

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Speaker 2: here today, I guess to tell you how bad everything is.

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Speaker 3: You see the vis Look at this.

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Speaker 2: I guess that's the one thing that's up twenty six percent,

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Speaker 2: backup of twenty seven Even crypto is lower as we consider.

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Speaker 2: I guess a bunch of retirees or near retirees celebrating

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Speaker 2: the fact that their bond holdings finally went up. Maybe

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Speaker 2: I could find some silver lining here with Michael McKee,

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Speaker 2: but I kind of doubt it. I don't even have questions.

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Speaker 4: For for you.

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Speaker 3: Mike. It's great to have you.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you must be the busiest guy in the

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Speaker 2: room today. Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent pretty much

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Speaker 2: says it all here, and Michael was with us as

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Speaker 2: soon as we heard from the President. Last evening on

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Speaker 2: our extended balance of power and joins us now from

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Speaker 2: New York. Michael, I want to bring it back in

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Speaker 2: time to what we heard in the Rose Garden yesterday.

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Speaker 3: Listen, this is Liberation Day.

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Speaker 5: I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs.

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Speaker 5: China sixty seven percent. We're going to be charging a

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Speaker 5: discounted reciprocal tariff of thirty four percent. European Union, they're

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Speaker 5: very tough. We're going to charge him twenty percent. Taiwan

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Speaker 5: we're going to charge them thirty two percent. Japan, we're

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Speaker 5: charging him twenty four percent. We will impose a twenty

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Speaker 5: five percent tariff for no far and made automobiles. We

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Speaker 5: will establish a minimum baseline tariff of ten percent. Promises made,

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Speaker 5: Promise is kept.

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Speaker 3: Whoever made that gets a cold star. James. Can I

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Speaker 3: get like a big board?

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Speaker 2: I feel like a big board like that that can

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Speaker 2: kind of hug onto it and read on the air.

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Speaker 2: If you're with us on YouTube, they're surely going to

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Speaker 2: start Saturday Night Live with the cold open.

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Speaker 3: Trump holding the board right.

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Speaker 2: All the things that have been super imposed on that

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Speaker 2: board on social media can keep you busy for a

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Speaker 2: long time. But if you're the White House, this was

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Speaker 2: a raving success. They put up a really slick produced

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Speaker 2: video on the website, guys in hard hats, motorcycle jackets,

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Speaker 2: union members hugging, laughing, clapping in the Rose Garden as

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Speaker 2: the President finally.

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Speaker 3: Got deliberation day.

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Speaker 2: Michael McKee does this for a living and actually understands

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Speaker 2: the global economic order. Michael, I'm not sure where to

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Speaker 2: start other than this reaction on Wall Street. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's been said the bond market is the best economist.

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Speaker 2: Is that the case today?

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Speaker 6: Well, they're certainly reflecting the views of people on Wall

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Speaker 6: Street and the idea that we probably are headed for

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Speaker 6: recession if these teariffs stay on. But I'll give you

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Speaker 6: a great starting point, Joe. What we're worried about here

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Speaker 6: is price is going up because the President's put on

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Speaker 6: a big tax on imports. All of the espresso coffee

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Speaker 6: pods we buy are made in Switzerland, which now has

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Speaker 6: a thirty two percent tax on it. And yesterday on Amazon,

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Speaker 6: a pack of fifty Starbucks and espresso pods was seventeen dollars.

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Speaker 6: Today they're twenty eight dollars. So this is going to

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Speaker 6: happen over and over again.

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Speaker 3: Is that amazing?

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Speaker 4: Though?

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Speaker 2: How quickly this is happening. Aren't there some supplies left over?

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Speaker 2: Or if you're trying to keep your margins intact, you

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Speaker 2: justight prices now.

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Speaker 6: Well, I'm sure that it will happen to varying effects

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Speaker 6: at varying times. In a e commerce world, you can

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Speaker 6: adjust prices immediately, so a lot of products we might

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Speaker 6: see that happen. Things at the grocery store take a

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Speaker 6: little bit longer, but anything we get like fruits and vegetables,

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Speaker 6: the timing for the president is pretty good because we're

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Speaker 6: going to be switching over to US made stuff. But

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Speaker 6: we get so much from South America and from Mexico

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Speaker 6: that those could go up in prices fairly quickly. And

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Speaker 6: of course there will be people who free ride on

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Speaker 6: this and just raise prices even if their goods are

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Speaker 6: not imported. So this is a sort of disaster in

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Speaker 6: the making. You can call it an own goal, you

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Speaker 6: can call it whatever you want, but it's not going

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Speaker 6: to be good news for the US economy.

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Speaker 2: If you're a massive retailer like Walmart, not only can

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Speaker 2: you pressure your suppliers, but you can find different places

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Speaker 2: in the store to maybe hike prices and kind of

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Speaker 2: spread things around a little bit before you dump it

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Speaker 2: on the product that has actually been impacted directly by

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Speaker 2: the tariff. If you're a small business owner, it's a

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Speaker 2: lot different. Michael, We're going to have one coming up here,

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Speaker 2: the founder of Port City Brewing. It's a great and

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Speaker 2: award winning brewery and Alexandria, Virginia right across the Potomac

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Speaker 2: from here, and he's having trou getting bottles. The kegs

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Speaker 2: are coming from Germany. The malt is coming from Canada.

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Speaker 2: If you're a business operator like that, let's say you

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Speaker 2: know you need a gave from Mexico or whatever it is, you.

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Speaker 3: Have no choice based on the product that you make.

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Speaker 2: Do you have any choice other than to pass it

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Speaker 2: along to the consumer.

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Speaker 6: No, you don't, really, especially if you're a small business

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Speaker 6: that doesn't have big margins where you can absorb something.

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Speaker 6: And the problem for a lot of people is there

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Speaker 6: are things that are not made in the United State.

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Speaker 6: We're not growing a gave, you know, so they got

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Speaker 6: to go somewhere else. And a lot of the malt

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Speaker 6: comes from overseas, from Belgium, So there's a real problem

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Speaker 6: for many businesses here. They're going to just have to

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Speaker 6: pass these prices along and hope Americans accept them. And

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Speaker 6: we saw with the post COVID period that people didn't

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Speaker 6: accept them, but they had to pay them. And we

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Speaker 6: may be in that situation again, which will create a

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Speaker 6: lot of unhappiness. It'll be interesting or scary to see

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Speaker 6: whether people blame companies or whether the blame is focused

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Speaker 6: on the White House Mark Carney.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the Canadian Prime Minister spoke a short time ago.

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Speaker 2: We actually got some news putting a twenty five percent

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Speaker 2: retaliatory tariff on US made vehicles in response to what

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Speaker 2: happened yesterday. We heard from the Prime Minister. Here's what

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Speaker 2: he said.

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Speaker 7: Three sets, three different sets of US tariffs remain in

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Speaker 7: place and will continue to pose significant threats to Canadian

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Speaker 7: workers and Canadian businesses. And while they have been imposed

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Speaker 7: under different premises, some things are consistent. They are all unjustified, unwarranted,

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Speaker 7: and in our judgment, misguided.

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Speaker 2: Michael, I know that you're not just an economist or

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Speaker 2: an economic expert. You're also very sensitive to the political

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Speaker 2: side of this story. You understand politics in Washington. When

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Speaker 2: you hear a remark like that. This is the Prime Minister,

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Speaker 2: by the way, who was told by Doug Ford, as

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Speaker 2: he explained to us on Balance of Power last evening,

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Speaker 2: he asked the Prime Minister not to respond.

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Speaker 3: The trains left the station.

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Speaker 4: Here.

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Speaker 2: Politically, what happened in the last twenty four hours to

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Speaker 2: our standing in the world.

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Speaker 6: Well, our standing in the world plunged. It was already

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Speaker 6: bad given the run up to this and the way

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Speaker 6: the world's been reacting to everything that the President has done,

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Speaker 6: particularly on the defense side, but now it just cripples

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Speaker 6: us with an awful lot of people. Part of that

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Speaker 6: is also the uncertainty because we don't know what mister

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Speaker 6: Trump wants out of this. He wants to bring factories home,

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Speaker 6: in which case you need to leave these tariffs on

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Speaker 6: forever because otherwise companies are just going to wait it out.

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Speaker 6: Or is it a subject to negotiation situation where countries

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Speaker 6: can do what mister Ford suggested and not retaliate and

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Speaker 6: try to negotiate something down and get the tariffs lifted.

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Speaker 6: It's really hard to know what's going on here. In

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Speaker 6: terms of Canada. There are a couple other things that

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Speaker 6: the President is talking about. Tariffing that would have a

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Speaker 6: big impact. One is pharmaceuticals and the other is lumber.

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Speaker 6: Lumber of course a long running dispute with the United States.

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Speaker 6: But Bloomberg wrote a story the other day it was

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Speaker 6: kind of fascinating. There is an ingredient that goes into

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Speaker 6: toilet paper that comes from Canadian softwood, and something like

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Speaker 6: thirty thirty five percent of all the toilet paper in

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Speaker 6: the United States is made from this stuff. And if

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Speaker 6: it goes up in price, you're gonna be paying a

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Speaker 6: lot more for toilet paper, or you're gonna have shortages,

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Speaker 6: and that'll get people's attention.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, get ready for the sandpaper ladies and gentlemen. Boy,

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Speaker 2: what's the FED doing right now, Mike McKee in our

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Speaker 2: last minute? Do they have the spreadsheets all over the

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Speaker 2: floor and the green visors out or are they drinking

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Speaker 2: at Bobby Vans?

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Speaker 6: Well, I assume they have the spreadsheets and green visors,

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Speaker 6: although Bobby Vans might be more fun. That's pretty much

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Speaker 6: what's going on all over on Wall Street. All of

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Speaker 6: the economists and analysts are trying to analyze what it

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Speaker 6: means for the economies and the companies they follow. The

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Speaker 6: FED is doing the same to try to trace through

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Speaker 6: what the impacts will be, not just the first impacts,

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Speaker 6: not just you go to the store and pay more

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Speaker 6: for toilet paper, but how does that affect other products

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Speaker 6: and other purchases you might make down the road. The

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Speaker 6: feeling is, according to JP Borgan Chase, that people's disposable

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Speaker 6: income is going to go negative in the next quarter

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Speaker 6: and people are going to just pull back on spending.

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Speaker 6: And the Fed we'll have to decide is inflation a

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Speaker 6: bigger danger or growth a bigger danger.

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Speaker 2: One of the most important voices you'll hear today on Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: Michael McKee. Great to have you back, sir, Bloomberg International

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Speaker 2: Economics and Policy correspondent, with some real context, some real

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Speaker 2: perspective on what the heck is happening here and how

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Speaker 2: little we still know about what happens next, how long

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Speaker 2: these tariffs stay in place, and what deals might emerge.

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Speaker 2: Bill Butcher, we talked about him on the way in

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Speaker 2: from Alexandria, Virginia.

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Speaker 3: Next right here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

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Speaker 1: New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty with.

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Speaker 3: Not great news on our markets today.

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Speaker 2: Following what we heard from President Trump last evening, we

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Speaker 2: knew it was going to be bad if you were

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Speaker 2: with us at the extended edition of Balance of Power

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Speaker 2: last evening, the futures fell out of bed even worse

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Speaker 2: since actual trading has begun. Today is the world wakes

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Speaker 2: up to this new reality. We're glad you're with us

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Speaker 2: today on Bloomberg Radio ninety nine point one in Washington, DC,

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Speaker 2: on the satellite radio channel one twenty one, and on YouTube,

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Speaker 2: where you can find us right now search Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 2: News Live. You should get up on YouTube for this

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Speaker 2: next conversation because I think it's an important one. You

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Speaker 2: don't have to look that far. The fact of the

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Speaker 2: matter is outside of Washington, d C. Or that far

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Speaker 2: even here in the Federal City. To find the immediate

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Speaker 2: impact of the President's actions yesterday, you get the car,

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Speaker 2: drive about nine miles down the river from d C,

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Speaker 2: where some guys like me live in Alexandria, Virginia.

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Speaker 3: There's a company that is.

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Speaker 2: The longest operating brewery in the Metro DC area award

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Speaker 2: winning they got Small Brewery of the Year in twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 2: the Port City Brewing Company. The reason why this stuff

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Speaker 2: is so good is because of the sourcing that is

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Speaker 2: involved in crafting this craft beer.

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Speaker 3: I want you to think about this now.

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Speaker 2: With all the tariffs that we've talked about, the reciprocals

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Speaker 2: the steel and aluminum Canada, Mexico. Imagine you're making your

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Speaker 2: beer in Alexandria. You get your malt from Canada, you

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Speaker 2: get your bottle caps from Mexico. Kegs made of steel

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Speaker 2: come from Germany. What's that going to do to the

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Speaker 2: price of a six pack? That is the reality right

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Speaker 2: now for Bill Butcher, the founder of the Port City

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Speaker 2: Brewing Company, who I'm glad to say is with us

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Speaker 2: right now. Bill, I'm really glad you could join us.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for being here with you.

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Speaker 3: How do you get out of this mess?

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Speaker 8: We're still sorting through it. You know, it's hard to say.

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Speaker 8: You know, the mall comes from Canada, as you said,

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Speaker 8: the bottle caps are from Mexico. It looks like there's

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Speaker 8: a carve out in these tariffs for the US NCA,

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Speaker 8: which should provide some relief, but there's still questions. You know,

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Speaker 8: we get our cans from Ball, so they're manufactured in

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Speaker 8: the US. However, we don't know the source of the aluminum,

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Speaker 8: if the aluminum could be coming from Canada, could be

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Speaker 8: coming from wherever. So we haven't heard anything from our

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Speaker 8: can supplier on how this is going to affect our prices.

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Speaker 8: But I feel that it is going to affect our prices,

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Speaker 8: and not in a good way.

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Speaker 2: Well, and make it even more complicated. I understand that

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Speaker 2: you're having trouble finding bottles now because the big guys,

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Speaker 2: the big brewers, are sucking up all the glass because

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Speaker 2: they don't want to have to use more expensive aluminum

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Speaker 2: for cans.

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Speaker 4: What do you do with that exactly?

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Speaker 8: You know, we thought we were somewhat shielded from the

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Speaker 8: aluminum tariff because most of our package beer seventy percent

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Speaker 8: of our package beer goes into bottles, so we thought

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Speaker 8: we'd be okay on that front. However, about three weeks

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Speaker 8: ago I was informed by our bottle supplier that they

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Speaker 8: would not be able to supply us with bottles beyond

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Speaker 8: March thirty first. So we've been in a frantic search

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Speaker 8: for a new bottle supplier, and so we haven't sorted

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Speaker 8: that out yet.

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Speaker 4: We have two shipments on the road.

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Speaker 8: That we had already ordered before we got cut off,

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Speaker 8: so we've got a little bit of wiggle room there,

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Speaker 8: but we need to figure out something pretty quickly.

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Speaker 3: Boy, that's for sure. How long have you been in

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Speaker 3: business in Alexandria.

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Speaker 8: We opened fourteen years ago, in twenty eleven, and you know,

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Speaker 8: we've never seen anything like this. And I was talking

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Speaker 8: to our bottle supplier a couple of weeks ago and

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Speaker 8: he was telling, explaining to me that he doesn't have

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Speaker 8: an answer for us. He's been in the business for

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Speaker 8: thirty five years, and he said he's never seen anything

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Speaker 8: like this either.

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Speaker 3: So here's the problem.

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Speaker 2: As I'm assuming for you, the reason why your beer

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Speaker 2: works is because of all of the elements that I've

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Speaker 2: already described. I'm guessing you cannot just simply replace that malt,

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Speaker 2: for instance, that is critical to the taste and body

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Speaker 2: of your beer.

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Speaker 4: What do you do with that exactly?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, the malt that we use, it's a very specific

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Speaker 8: strain of pilsner malt. It's barley that's grown in Canada

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Speaker 8: and it likes the colder climate in Canada and that's

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Speaker 8: why we use it because it's the best quality in

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Speaker 8: the world. And our brewers, you know, they know what

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Speaker 8: they're doing. As you said, we've won multiple awards for

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Speaker 8: our beers, and it's because our brewers look the world

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Speaker 8: over for the best ingredients to make the styles of

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Speaker 8: beer that we want. So, you know, there's a lot

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Speaker 8: that goes into our supply chain and it's just really

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Speaker 8: been frustrating the past few weeks because our entire supply

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Speaker 8: chain has been thrown into chaos.

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Speaker 2: Well, so this leaves businesses like yours in a really

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Speaker 2: peculiar spot, and it's partly why we wanted to talk

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Speaker 2: to you.

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Speaker 4: Bill.

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Speaker 3: You're an American company.

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Speaker 2: This beer is made in America, but it's special because

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Speaker 2: of the ingredients that happen to come from some other places.

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Speaker 2: You could also have an American beer company trying to

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Speaker 2: make a Mexican style beer. You can't do that in

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis, Right, If you're making a gave, the reason

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Speaker 2: why it is special is because of where it is from.

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Speaker 2: So if your back is against the wall here, what

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Speaker 2: does that mean for a price of a six pack

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Speaker 2: of beer? Because it sounds like you can't change any

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Speaker 2: of these.

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Speaker 8: That's true, and you know it affects not just us,

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Speaker 8: but you know, we are a main street business and

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Speaker 8: there's nine one thousand small independent breweries in the US,

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Speaker 8: and most of us are faced with this issue because

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Speaker 8: we do have a global supply chain. So you know,

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Speaker 8: if our costs go up, we need to pass that

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Speaker 8: along to the consumer. Unfortunately, and the way it works

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Speaker 8: in the United States with alcoholic beverages, there's a.

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Speaker 4: Three tier distribution system.

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Speaker 8: There's the supplier, there's the wholesaler, and the wholesaler sells

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Speaker 8: to license retailers and that's mandated by the federal government

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Speaker 8: that we can't sell direct to consumers. We have to

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Speaker 8: use this three tier system, and each tier has their

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Speaker 8: own margins and markups for the products. So if we're

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Speaker 8: a six pack of beer that currently sells for twelve

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Speaker 8: ninety nine, if we have to increase our price by

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Speaker 8: say twenty percent, by the time each tier of the

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Speaker 8: distribution system takes their markup, it could hit the shelf

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Speaker 8: at eighteen ninety nine.

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Speaker 2: Wow, a six pack for eighteen It is good beer bill.

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Speaker 2: Somebody is going to pay that, right, just not as

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Speaker 2: many as your fear. Could this put you out of this?

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Speaker 8: I mean even at twelve ninety nine. I mean, our

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Speaker 8: beer obviously is a premium product. It's a high quality,

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Speaker 8: full flavored beer, and people are willing to pay a

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Speaker 8: little bit more for something of higher quality.

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Speaker 4: But there are limits to that, you know.

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Speaker 8: And I'm certain that if our beer is hitting the

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Speaker 8: shelf at these inflated prices, then things are going to

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Speaker 8: slow down.

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Speaker 2: Well, you're part of a community, of course, It's not

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Speaker 2: just you. I know that there's a brewer's association. I'm

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Speaker 2: guessing you don't have the influence of the lobbying money though,

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Speaker 2: of an anheuser Bush to dial up the White House.

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Speaker 2: How do you deliver a message? How do you push

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Speaker 2: back on any of this or can't?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Well, our Brewers Association has been active, and our

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Speaker 8: CEO has been He's traveled from Boulder, Colorado, to DC

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Speaker 8: several times since the beginning of the year, and so

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Speaker 8: we are trying to get our message out. You're right,

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Speaker 8: we don't have the millions that the big brewers have,

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Speaker 8: but you know, we are a main street business and

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Speaker 8: we are involved with our elected representatives. And I've reached

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Speaker 8: out to our senators, our US senators as well as

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Speaker 8: our Congress representatives, to let them know what our concerns

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Speaker 8: are and let them know that there's real that there's

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Speaker 8: real danger here that for the negative effects that are

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Speaker 8: going to occur with our business bill.

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Speaker 3: Butcher, I want to meet you in person.

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Speaker 2: This is a great story and it's a really interesting

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Speaker 2: local business here in our great little city of Alexandria.

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Speaker 2: Pay a visit sometime. It sounds like business owners could

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Speaker 2: use you.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm e's tern

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Speaker 1: on Apple Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 9: We want to add the voice now of someone else, who,

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Speaker 9: of course pays close attention to the issues. The former

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Speaker 9: ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, former Republican Senator

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Speaker 9: from the state of Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey, is here with

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Speaker 9: us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Welcome back to Balance

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Speaker 9: of Power. Senator. It's always good to have you. If

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Speaker 9: we could just be completely candid here, when you saw

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Speaker 9: the figures presented in the Rose Garden yesterday. What was

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Speaker 9: the first thought that went through your head.

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Speaker 10: I thought that he is carrying through on what he

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Speaker 10: has always dreamed of doing. I spent four years arguing

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Speaker 10: with President Trump about trade, about deficits, about tariffs during

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Speaker 10: his first term, and it became clear to me that

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Speaker 10: he has some very, very deeply held views. They're completely mistaken,

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Speaker 10: in my judgment, but they are very deeply held. And

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Speaker 10: at the heart of it is this notion that if

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Speaker 10: you have a trade deficit with another country, the amount

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Speaker 10: of that deficit is the measure of the amount that

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Speaker 10: they're basically ripping you off. And he uses that terminology.

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Speaker 10: He speaks that way all the time. It of course,

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Speaker 10: makes no economic sense whatsoever. The trade deficit just means

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Speaker 10: our consumers happen to buy more products from that country

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Speaker 10: than their consumers buy from US. Any number of completely

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Speaker 10: reasonable reasons for that, but none of them are acceptable

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Speaker 10: to Donald Trump. I think that worldview is kind of

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Speaker 10: at the heart of this. I expect that there would

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Speaker 10: be some very severe tariffs. I of course had no

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Speaker 10: idea exactly what levels would be imposed on which countries.

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Speaker 10: You can see that was a pretty arbitrary and capricious approach,

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Speaker 10: but I'm not really shocked by the magnitude.

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Speaker 2: What does this mean for business in Pennsylvania, Senator, It's

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Speaker 2: good to have you back, by the way, and I

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Speaker 2: realized you could have different answers here. We talked to

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Speaker 2: a local brewer in the Washington, DC area who's perplexed

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Speaker 2: as back as against the wall because most of the

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Speaker 2: materials he's using are suddenly now being tariffed. Or for

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Speaker 2: a steel mill in Pennsylvania might have a different answer.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, So there will be pockets of industries and companies

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Speaker 10: that will benefit from these protective tariffs. They won't have

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Speaker 10: to deal with competition, they can raise their prices, they

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Speaker 10: don't have to innovate as much. Americans may be kind

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Speaker 10: of forced to buy from them. So there will be

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Speaker 10: some that will have that benefit, but by far the

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Speaker 10: overwhelming majority will be the losers. Just think about the

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Speaker 10: steel and alluminitive tariffs that the President imposed in his

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Speaker 10: first term. There's been a lot of research done on

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Speaker 10: the effect of those tariffs, and the conclusion is for

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Speaker 10: every job that was saved in the steel making industry,

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Speaker 10: there were probably eight to ten jobs lost among companies

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Speaker 10: that use steal. There's many, many times more industries that

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Speaker 10: use these materials than the primary maker, and that downstream

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Speaker 10: damage is very, very hard. Here's another thing to think about.

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Speaker 10: Something like forty percent of American imports are in puts

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Speaker 10: for American manufacturers. So what we're doing with these sweeping

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Speaker 10: across the board tariffs is we are systematically making American

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Speaker 10: manufacturers less competitive because we're raising the prices they have

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Speaker 10: to pay for the components of their products. The rest

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Speaker 10: of the world isn't going through that, and so we

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Speaker 10: will be able to competitive disadvantage. This is going to

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Speaker 10: manifest itself in many ways. It's certainly going to be

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Speaker 10: higher prices for consumers. There's going to be jobs loss.

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Speaker 10: We've already seen announcements today of companies that are laying

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Speaker 10: off workers. That's going to accelerate, and over time it

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Speaker 10: means a lower standard of living for Americans until finally,

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Speaker 10: you know, better sense takes hold and the process starts

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Speaker 10: to online. But that can be a very difficult then

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Speaker 10: who knows how long that takes.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 9: But the White House is arguing, Senator that this really

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Speaker 9: is just step one of President Trump's economic plan. We

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Speaker 9: still have tax cuts that they'll try to push through

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Speaker 9: by the end of this year that they argue will

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Speaker 9: help liven the economy. Obviously, your former chamber is taking

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Speaker 9: steps to try to advance that legislative path forward in

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Speaker 9: the next twenty four hours or so, as we expect

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Speaker 9: a vote rama to happen. To what extent will friendlier

441
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 9: tax policy be able to offset the negative impacts you

442
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 9: were just discussing.

443
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 10: Yeah, So, look, I think there's three categories in which

444
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 10: the administration is likely to pursue, and in fact is pursuing,

445
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 10: really good economic policy. Curbing federal spending. The federal government

446
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 10: spent way too much money, and that'd be very good

447
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 10: for our economy overall, if they're successful in curbing federal spending.

448
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 10: Rolling back regulation. There's wildly excessive regulation. The bid administration

449
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 10: was very, very problematic with what it imposed across the economy.

450
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,719
Speaker 10: That rollback it is constructive and it is pro growth.

451
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,919
Speaker 10: Energy dominance is really good for the economy. It's I

452
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 10: think it's impossible probably at this point to quantify the

453
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,080
Speaker 10: relative components, but keep in mind, on tax policy, I

454
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 10: am one hundred percent in favor of making permanent the

455
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 10: twenty seventeen tax reform, that's a very heavy lift. If

456
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 10: we can get that done, that just maintains the status quo.

457
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 10: That's just an extension of current policy. So there's not

458
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 10: like a big surge to grow that comes from continuing

459
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 10: current policy.

460
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 4: Right.

461
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 10: What you do is you avoid a very damaging tax increase.

462
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 10: But I really think that these tariffs are going to

463
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 10: do a lot of damage.

464
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 2: I know you're watching these markets, Senator, some thing's never change.

465
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 2: You consider the negative wealth effect that this could have. Yeah,

466
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 2: I wonder how worried you are about the potential impact

467
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 2: on consumer spending or if this market keeps dropping. If

468
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: that's the one thing that can change Donald Trump's course

469
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,159
Speaker 2: on this, I.

470
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 10: Would hazard a guess that at some point it would.

471
00:24:56,000 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 10: But if we're down fifteen percent on and then nask

472
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 10: and I'm not sure where we are at the moment.

473
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 10: It's been pretty volatile, as you know, but ten fifteen

474
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 10: percent declines, I doubt that would change his mind. I

475
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 10: think it's going to have to manifest itself in the

476
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 10: real economy. I think we're going to have to see

477
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 10: the CPI prints that are accelerating. I think we're going

478
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 10: to have to see the layoffs and see the factories

479
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 10: closing because they're no longer competitive. I think that's going

480
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 10: to have to happen before the President decides he's looking

481
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 10: for an off ramp because he really believes that in

482
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 10: buying things from other countries is really bad for us

483
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 10: and he wants to curb that.

484
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 9: Well, what about your former colleagues in the Senate or

485
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 9: in the House for that matter, do you expect if

486
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 9: they're getting they're seeing the you know, financial markets, getting

487
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 9: calls from constituents that they could maybe try to push back.

488
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 9: We already saw the passage of a resolution, with the

489
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 9: help of four Republicans, of a Democratic resolution condemning the

490
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 9: Canada terrace. Specifically, Senator Grassly is co sponsoring legislation that

491
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 9: would see Congress having to approve tariffs within sixty days

492
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 9: or them be nullified. Are you expecting more to materialize.

493
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 10: On that front. Yes, I just don't know how long

494
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 10: that's going to take. You know, that's one of the

495
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 10: many disturbing ironies of this. Of course, all of this

496
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 10: is completely inconsistent with the constitutional assignment of responsibility for

497
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 10: trade to Congress. The president doesn't have this authority, and

498
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 10: yet we sit on the edge of our seats, wondering

499
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 10: what the latest whim is from the President who's exercising

500
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 10: an authority that, in my view, he doesn't have. I think,

501
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 10: you know, a lot of Republican voters have the view

502
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 10: that the president's only been in office for a couple

503
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 10: of months. We've got to give him his opportunity, have

504
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 10: him enact his agenda, and give him the benefit of

505
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 10: the doubt. I think that will only last for so long.

506
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 10: And when that starts to turn, because people see really

507
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 10: rapidly rising prices, obb is jeopardized, they're hearing about layoffs

508
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 10: and the other adverse effects, then it's going to be

509
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 10: obvious to members of Congress that this is a very

510
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 10: problematic road we're on, and they may want to find

511
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 10: a way to begin to reverse some of these effects.

512
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 10: But I think it's going to have to show up

513
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 10: in the real economy first. Unfortunately, I think it will

514
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 10: show up in the rail economy.

515
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 2: Really good to have you back, Senator, I know you're

516
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 2: going to miss Washington when the voter ramas get going

517
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 2: again a little bit later this week, potentially in the Senate.

518
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 2: Pats to whome former Republican Senator from Pennsylvania. As we

519
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 2: assemble our political panel, We're glad to have Rick Davis

520
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 2: back with us in Jeanie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics Contributors. Rick

521
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 2: is our Republican strategists and partner at Stone Court Capital.

522
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: Genie is our Democratic analyst and political science professor at

523
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 2: Iona University. Rick, you might have heard Pat Toomey talking

524
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 2: a little while ago. You used to work around Pat

525
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 2: Toomey in the Senate in your time with Senator John McCain,

526
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 2: an old line republic who doesn't have a lot of

527
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 2: love for tariffs, and his point was that a ten

528
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 2: percent correction in the markets is not going to move

529
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. We're going to need to see this born

530
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 2: out in the actual economy.

531
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 3: Do you agree.

532
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 11: Yeah?

533
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 12: Look, I think certainly for political purposes, the economy is

534
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 12: what's going to impact people's opinions, right, I mean, they're

535
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 12: going to give Donald Trump some time. Donald Trump has

536
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 12: a lot of sort of tolerance for pain. He's not

537
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 12: running again, regardless of some of the news stories this week,

538
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 12: and so the political calculus for him is a little

539
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 12: bit easier for the rest of the Republican Party and

540
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 12: especially those mainstream Republicans that have a real focus on

541
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 12: the economy, and the reality for them is, you know,

542
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 12: higher prices, less growth, those kinds of things that come

543
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,479
Speaker 12: along with these kinds of big terrif regimes are going

544
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 12: to slow the economy to a point where it's going

545
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 12: to be hard to go home in eighteen months when

546
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 12: you're pitching people to vote for your party in the

547
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,719
Speaker 12: midterms and say that somehow they're supposed to be better off

548
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 12: today than they were when Donald Trump took office, going

549
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 12: to be.

550
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 4: A hard sell.

551
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 9: Well, especially Genie, when the White House is specifically casting

552
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 9: this policy is something that is intended to help the

553
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 9: United States in the longer term, not necessarily the shorter term.

554
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 9: The kind of investments they are hoping to draw, our

555
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 9: big investments into infrastructure and workforces, things that will take

556
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 9: some time to actually materialize. Does this administration run the

557
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 9: risk of, even if everything works out as optimally as

558
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 9: they are hoping in terms of American manufacturing, that much

559
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 9: like Joe Biden with many of the legislative accomplishments during

560
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 9: his administration, he's not actually going to be around to

561
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 9: see it.

562
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 13: Yeah, And that's absolutely the reality of leadership, right. So

563
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 13: much of what you do at the moment, takes time

564
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 13: to implement and execute, and you're not there to witness

565
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 13: the fruits of all of your labor. But the reality

566
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 13: is it is very difficult to imagine that any of

567
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 13: what they are talking about from the positive perspective actually

568
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 13: comes to fruition. And this is a very sort of

569
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 13: scary part of where we find ourselves. And I thought

570
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 13: your discussion with Senator Toomey was so important. Donald Trump

571
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 13: is deeply committed to something that all the research, all

572
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 13: the facts, all the best minds look at, from Freedman

573
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 13: to Solo, they all say that tariffs at this degree,

574
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 13: blanket tariffs are a loser. And you know, he's heard

575
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 13: it from some Republicans yesterday, including Rand Paul, who urged

576
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 13: his fellow Republicans to look back and to see that

577
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 13: when this was tried by President Trump's favorite McKinley, the

578
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 13: loss and the seats on their side was dramatic. And

579
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 13: I think that's where we have to focus, is that

580
00:30:54,960 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 13: we have Republicans in Congress tolerating a power by this president.

581
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 13: None of us knew until yesterday that we were in

582
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 13: an emergency that could allow the President to do what

583
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 13: he did. Yesterday. The Constitution says Congress is in control.

584
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 13: The president has taken control because they are not doing

585
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,719
Speaker 13: their jobs. And the question is when are they going

586
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 13: to wake up and say, in a system of separated powers,

587
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 13: one man who is devoted to something cannot change one

588
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 13: hundred years of tax policy and trade policy. That's the

589
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 13: real question the eighty percent of these GOP folks in

590
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 13: the Senate, in the House, who are tolerating what has

591
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 13: happened here.

592
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 2: Straightforward question from a terminal user, Rick, why does no

593
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 2: one talk about the tariffs on the US for fifty

594
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 2: years and only on the counter tariffs that we just

595
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: put on them now?

596
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 12: Well, I think arguably, certainly recent history indicates that we

597
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 12: have prospered on a global basis with them. I don't

598
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 12: think it's actually held back the US economy for whatever reason.

599
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 12: The US economy has grown by a significally larger Morgin

600
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 12: margin than Europe and China and other countries on a

601
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 12: GDP basis. Per capita, our wealth has substantially increased over

602
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 12: the last few decades compared to the rest of the world.

603
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 12: I mean, to be honest, sure there are trade deficits

604
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 12: in all these countries that Donald Trump slapped tariffs on

605
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 12: but it's hard to quantify how somehow those things have

606
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 12: been holding the US economy back. They haven't. The US

607
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 12: economy prior to January twentieth has been roaring. It's been

608
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 12: the envy of the rest of the world. And to

609
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 12: be honest, I think this ter phraseme, based on what

610
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 12: we're seeing today and expect expected by economists we have

611
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 12: on these programs, it will probably reduce the growth of

612
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 12: these economies ours and others that we trade with substantially

613
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 12: over the next few quarters.

614
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 9: Well, but Rick, to your point on the strength of

615
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 9: the economy, isn't one of the reasons that President Trump

616
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 9: got elected was because a lot of that base of

617
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 9: support came from people who were not necessarily feeling the

618
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 9: economy was working for them.

619
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 12: Well, yeah, I mean, look, I mean the economy when

620
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 12: we talk about the politics of the economy, it's not

621
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 12: an even playing field, right, I mean, the economy has

622
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 12: not been great for people live in rural areas and

623
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 12: don't have college educations and they voted for Donald Trump.

624
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 12: And the economy has been great for people who live

625
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 12: in cities and suburbs and have college educations, and they

626
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 12: all voted for Joe Biden. So the reality is our

627
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 12: country is as divided economically as it is politically. And

628
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 12: some political observers will tell you that's why it's divided

629
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 12: is because we have a haves and have not. That's

630
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 12: both geographic, educational, and financial.

631
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,479
Speaker 2: Weigh in on that genieus half the country you are about

632
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: to have its day.

633
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 13: I'm not so sure. I mean, you know, you look

634
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 13: at you know, the loss of jobs in a state

635
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 13: like Michigan. They haven't all gone overseas. Many of them

636
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 13: have gone to the south of the United States. They

637
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:20,280
Speaker 13: haven't all gone overseas. Many of them have been wiped

638
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 13: out by technology. So there are a lot of complicated

639
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 13: factors here. And to set up protections. We all want

640
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 13: workers to have a vibrant, full, healthy, and robust economic future.

641
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 13: But to set up a protectionist mechanism where you protect

642
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:43,479
Speaker 13: workers and businesses from competition from overseas has long been

643
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 13: understood to hurt both consumers but also workers and the

644
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 13: future of the US economy as well. So, you know,

645
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 13: I think we have to be very very careful about

646
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 13: looking at a problem. Donald Trump is right, there is

647
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 13: a problem. People have been in pain but he was

648
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 13: hired or elected to lower prices, lower inflation, and start

649
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 13: to ensure that the very strong unemployment numbers that he

650
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 13: inherited remain and help people transition to a new economy.

651
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 13: He's not doing any of that. He's going back to

652
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 13: the gilded age as a mercantile and saying we're going

653
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 13: to set up barriers. It didn't work for McKinley, that's

654
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 13: why he abandoned it in the late eighteen hundreds, and

655
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 13: it's not going to work for Donald Trump unfortunately.

656
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 9: Well so if his solution to the problem is not

657
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:40,240
Speaker 9: the right one, Genie, And certainly you're seeing Democrats quick

658
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 9: to come out and say that what is the proper

659
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 9: solution that Democrats should now be pushing instead, and what's

660
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 9: their real power to do?

661
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 13: So, Yeah, they don't have a lot of power right now.

662
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 13: Obviously they haven't won many elections. But you're also hearing

663
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 13: this from Republicans. And I would just point again to

664
00:35:56,040 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 13: the four who voted yesterday, and the answer is, it's

665
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 13: going to be a long term commitment to both free

666
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 13: trade use of targeted tariffs if we need to, and

667
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 13: President Trump did that in his first term. But what

668
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 13: you don't do is step up one day and impose

669
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 13: huge tariffs on one hundred and eighty five countries around

670
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 13: the world, including our closest allies, and expect that is

671
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 13: going to be in either our security or our economic

672
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 13: benefit long term. So there are solutions out there, but

673
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 13: it takes working together, and it takes an understanding of

674
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,720
Speaker 13: the economic system. And that's the concern about many people

675
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,799
Speaker 13: is that Donald Trump's view of the world in this

676
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 13: regard is not supported by any of the research or evidence.

677
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 9: All right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, our signature political panel,

678
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 9: both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors, thank you so much

679
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 9: for joining us as we work through some of the

680
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 9: domestic political ramifications of this tariff decision from President Trump,

681
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 9: and also here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Keep on

682
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 9: top of the market ramifications, which certainly are severe. Today

683
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 9: we are off of session lows, but still down roughly

684
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 9: four percentage points on the S and P five hundred,

685
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 9: even more so for the Nasdaq one hundred, down four

686
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 9: and a half percent. Basically, Joe, the only safe place

687
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 9: to go if you want to hide somewhere today is

688
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 9: in the bond market. The ten year yield down nine

689
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 9: basis points. We are just around four three.

690
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 2: At least some bond heavy retirement accounts are feeling a

691
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 2: little bit richer today. We're going to be looking at

692
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 2: the price of oil coming up as well. Mike mcgloan

693
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Intelligence, our commodity strategists, will be with us

694
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 2: to get to the bottom of this next.

695
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:31,959
Speaker 3: On Bloomberg TV and Radio.

696
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

697
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

698
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

699
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

700
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

701
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,879
Speaker 2: With our focus now on the price of oil also

702
00:37:56,160 --> 00:38:00,439
Speaker 2: lower today WDTI West Texas intermediate crude futures down over

703
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 2: six percent. At the moment, we're hovering just above sixty

704
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 2: seven dollars a barrel, and we wanted to get more

705
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 2: into this with an expert, Mike mcloan back with us

706
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Intelligence. He is the senior commodity strategist in Mike.

707
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 2: We had news today from Opek a larger than expected

708
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 2: oil supply hike coming in May. How much of this

709
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 2: price movement has to do with OPEK versus the tariffs.

710
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:24,919
Speaker 11: OPEC's part of it, Joe.

711
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 14: We've been waiting for OBEC to come on supply for

712
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 14: almost two years.

713
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 11: It's just a matter of time.

714
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 14: The key thing that's happening is we have an oversupplied

715
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 14: market on the back of that big pumping prices when

716
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 14: Russia invaded Ukraine, Krudeau.

717
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 11: Got up to one thirty.

718
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 14: That's sud the seeds of prices going lower, which they

719
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 14: always do every time crude o gets set high. It's

720
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 14: gone back down to about forty dollars a barrow. This

721
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 14: is the last twenty years. That's my base case. I

722
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 14: think it's still going there. It has a good reason

723
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 14: to do it, and it's the main one of the

724
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 14: main goals of the Trump administration.

725
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 11: There's lower energy prices. They have pre existing trends in

726
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 11: their favor. So let's look at this.

727
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 14: The average price of gasoline the country is around three

728
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,839
Speaker 14: dollars and twenty cents a gallon. By the time we

729
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 14: get to midterms, I'll bet it'll be two bucks.

730
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 9: Wow, that would be something pretty incredible. I'd like to

731
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 9: ask you as well about copper futures down about four

732
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 9: percent today. The White House did say yesterday that copper

733
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 9: tariffs could still be coming. Mike mcgloan, what impact will

734
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 9: that have if we're considering existing supply and any constraints

735
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 9: that cod e merge if there's heavy duties in place.

736
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 11: Well, hello, Kayley, we've priced for the extremes.

737
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 14: The high for copper this year was five dollars and

738
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 14: thirty seven cents a pound. Last year's high was around

739
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 14: five dollars and twenty cents a pound. It was resolved

740
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 14: down the four dollars a pound. I think it's going

741
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 14: the same way. Prices of copper and London are closer

742
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 14: to four dollars and twenty cents right now. We're going

743
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 14: that way. Just a question of how long it takes.

744
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 14: So the market got way over extended. The futures from

745
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 14: the US versus London got the most stressed ever.

746
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 11: Now we're going back down.

747
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 14: But the key thing is copper is the you know,

748
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 14: doctor copper, it's very high correlation with economic activity in

749
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 14: the rest of the world. Having a face US tariffs

750
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 14: means more pressure lower for copper.

751
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 2: What's going on with gold Mike, was it just up

752
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 2: too far, too fast? I thought this was the safe

753
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 2: aving exactly.

754
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 11: Well, nothing like a good bull market that gets stretched.

755
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 14: I think what gold did is got a little expended

756
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:16,959
Speaker 14: above three thousand dollars announce it's there now.

757
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:18,240
Speaker 11: That's probably support.

758
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 14: The way I look at gold is it's still very

759
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 14: cheap versus the US stock market.

760
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:22,880
Speaker 11: So you see what matters.

761
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 14: Stock market going down gold and continue to go higher.

762
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 14: But it's the most expensive ever versus the bond market.

763
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 14: And we have data going back on fifty years. So

764
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 14: I think if gold, if this continues, the next big

765
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 14: trade is Gold's bullish, but it might pass some of

766
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 14: that bullish baton to US treasury bonds.

767
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:42,240
Speaker 9: Well, yeah, certainly bullish for treasuries today down fourteen basis

768
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 9: points on the two year, nine on the ten year.

769
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 9: Mike McLoone, who covers commodities for US at Bloomberg Intelligence,

770
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 9: thank you so much as always for joining us and

771
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 9: reminding us that for Copper it might not just be

772
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,720
Speaker 9: about tariffs, but that it also is a gross story

773
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 9: Doctor Copper. To his point, we know copper has always

774
00:40:56,160 --> 00:41:01,399
Speaker 9: historically been incredibly linked with the gross outlook in China. Specifically,

775
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 9: and China of course arguably hardest hit from these new

776
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 9: tariff policies from the.

777
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,359
Speaker 2: Is when you add in as well the slow down

778
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 2: apparently an investment in data center, the slowdown in EV

779
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 2: sales at some point, which we're sending copper prices higher,

780
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 2: there's a kind of a confusing market here, all of

781
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 2: a sudden.

782
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 9: Yeah, certainly, And I wonder how confusing things are in

783
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 9: Beijing right now as they consider the tariff rates with

784
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 9: which they will currently be dealing, but also perhaps what

785
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 9: opportunities it creates for China as the US is turning

786
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 9: further away from existing trading partners. And we want to

787
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 9: get into this now with Anna Ashton. She's founder of

788
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 9: Ashton Analytics, also a specialist in US China trade and economics.

789
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 9: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Anna. When we

790
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 9: just consider the level of the levey that the Trump

791
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 9: administration has now set for China, keeping in mind the

792
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 9: twenty percent tariffs related to fentanyl are still in place,

793
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,920
Speaker 9: layer on top of that thirty four percent bringing us

794
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 9: to fifty four percent, is the Chinese economy equipped to

795
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 9: handle tariffs of this magnitude.

796
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 15: Well, thanks, Kaylie, and I Before I even try to

797
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 15: answer that question, I want to add that not necessarily

798
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 15: factored into.

799
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 11: To that math by most.

800
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 15: People yet is the fact that there already are, you know,

801
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 15: an average eighteen percent tariffs on most Chinese imports into

802
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 15: the United States prior to the twenty percent that the

803
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 15: Trump administration added for this new thirty four percent, so

804
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:32,759
Speaker 15: it's actually more like seventy two percent. And there's the

805
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 15: threat of twenty five percent tariffs on China because it

806
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 15: buys venezuela and oil, which we don't know when that

807
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 15: might take effect, but that would bring it up to

808
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 15: ninety seven percent. And then of course there are the

809
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 15: sectoral tariffs which will affect China as well. So these

810
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 15: are really potentially quite high, and obviously they will have

811
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 15: a significant effect, a negative effect on the Chinese economy

812
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 15: because there's very little likelihood that Chinese manufacturers are going

813
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 15: to be able to absorb this, nor does the Chinese

814
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 15: government seem willing to allow that, and so this is painful,

815
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 15: but it does create opportunities, one of them being that

816
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 15: it just plays right into China's foreign policy line that

817
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 15: it is the protector of the international trading system and

818
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:25,280
Speaker 15: international trade rules.

819
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 2: So what's the retaliation China calling this typical bullying, Beijing

820
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 2: promising to retaliate.

821
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 3: How will it so?

822
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 15: What we've seen so far, Jough is some retaliatory tariffs,

823
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 15: strategic ones, including on US agriculture products and US gas,

824
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 15: and I expect that we would see maybe those tariffs

825
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 15: would be increased, perhaps there would be additional tariffs applied

826
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 15: strategically to other imports from the US. And then, of

827
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 15: course we'll see China rely on the rest of its

828
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 15: playbook of things that it can do to retaliate, the

829
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 15: playbook that it's been developing since the first Trump administration,

830
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 15: which will probably include more announcements about export restrictions or

831
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 15: licensing requirements for exports of critical minerals. It'll probably include

832
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 15: addition of more US companies to the Unreliable Entity list.

833
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 15: It might include other pressure on specific US companies that

834
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 15: are trying to operate in the China market.

835
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:37,280
Speaker 9: Well, so if they're retaliating against the US. I do wonder,

836
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:40,399
Speaker 9: to the point you were making on opportunities created here, Ana,

837
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 9: if it's going to be enticing other trading partners, who

838
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 9: is most likely to have a favorable view toward a

839
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 9: trading relationship with China as they're facing this pain from

840
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 9: the US. Is it other manufacturing countries or at least

841
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 9: where a lot of manufacturing has gone, like Vietnam and

842
00:44:56,960 --> 00:45:00,920
Speaker 9: India which are now facing high terraff rates European Union?

843
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 15: Is it all of the above? I think to some

844
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 15: extent you could say that it's all of the above.

845
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 15: That this will to the extent that the competition between

846
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:15,879
Speaker 15: the US and China and perceptions of China's increasing aggression

847
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 15: and you know, territorial claims around its periphery, to the

848
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 15: extent that that has been something that other countries have

849
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,840
Speaker 15: been more and more convinced of in the last eight years,

850
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 15: we may see a lot of those countries start to

851
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 15: revise that assessment and look at China as perhaps a

852
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 15: partner that is more amenable to relatively free trading than

853
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 15: the United States. Is I really am curious about how

854
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,720
Speaker 15: this will play out in the Asia Pacific region because

855
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 15: of what you mentioned, the fact thats tariffs that have

856
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 15: been announced for countries like Vietnam are even higher than

857
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 15: the tariffs that have been announced China, and of course,

858
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:05,359
Speaker 15: a lot of the manufacturing that was producing goods for

859
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 15: the US market has moved to places like Vietnam in

860
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 15: recent years, So that's really going to hurt those countries,

861
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:14,399
Speaker 15: and it likely will undermine their sense that the US

862
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 15: is a reliable partner, which could in turn undermine US

863
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 15: security objectives in the region.

864
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:24,760
Speaker 2: And you may have heard President Trump tie tariffs against

865
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 2: China to a potential sale of TikTok within the last week.

866
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 2: And we've got a deadline that's fast approaching in this

867
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 2: potential sale, while we don't have anything real to talk

868
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 2: about yet, has been sucking up a lot of oxygen

869
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 2: here in Washington, d C. Have you heard of, or

870
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 2: could you conceive of, any deal in which tariffs against

871
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:50,840
Speaker 2: China are lowered in some sort of deal for Beijing

872
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 2: to sign off on the sale of TikTok here in

873
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 2: the US.

874
00:46:55,080 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 15: Gosh, Joe, maybe these are really really significant tariff threats,

875
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 15: So I wouldn't rule out the possibility. Prior to these

876
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 15: tariff threats, I would have said, there's no way that

877
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 15: Beijing is going to make a deal. You know, my

878
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 15: sources have been quite emphatic that the government has no

879
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 15: interest in allowing the US to acquire TikTok's algorithm. But

880
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 15: it's possible that this would cause Beijing to reconsider to

881
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 15: some extent. I still think that it's doubtful, though, because

882
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:37,360
Speaker 15: you know, it's not really China's mo to bow to

883
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 15: US pressure like that, and so far China hasn't been

884
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 15: particularly positively responsive to other moves by this administration to

885
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 15: ratchet up pressure.

886
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 9: Just quickly, Anna, we only have a minute left here.

887
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 9: But do you expect we could see some currency activity

888
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 9: on the part of China when it comes to manipulating

889
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 9: the yuan, because currency manipul is one of those non

890
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 9: terror farriers the White House was alluding to yesterday.

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00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 11: It is.

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00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 15: And then at the same time, when you look at

893
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 15: how the when you look at the numbers that the

894
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 15: White House produced estimating what the total average tariffs of

895
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 15: these other trading partners are on the US, you know,

896
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 15: it's sort of a head scratcher. And it doesn't look

897
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 15: like there was a formula involved that you know, clearly

898
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:34,280
Speaker 15: took into account the effects on the US of different

899
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 15: kinds of tariff and non tariff barriers. It looks like,

900
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 15: I mean, most people have speculated that they basically took

901
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 15: the balance of trade between the US and any given

902
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 15: bilateral partner and divided it by the value of the

903
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:53,279
Speaker 15: imports from that country. So there are questions about exactly

904
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:58,160
Speaker 15: what countries could you and negotiations with the US to

905
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 15: make this better. But maybe you know devaluing currency, it's

906
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 15: one of them.

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00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 2: Anna Ashton, great to have you with us of all

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00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 2: days today and a founder of Ashton Analytics. Thanks for

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00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 2: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to

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00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:21,240
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00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,919
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00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:27,759
Speaker 2: every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: dot com.