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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go fifteen Tunny, twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, Horny Cody, five fifty and the Kicks Black

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Speaker 2: College Football. Laura Stunner, Oh my goodness, please stumble and

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Speaker 2: Bob the latteral turn a tyr on the.

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Speaker 3: Inside, Giu the lad.

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Speaker 2: Came off the field the night by. It's not the

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Speaker 2: side of the dog in the fight, it's the size

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Speaker 2: of the fight in the dog. Welcome to the Big

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Speaker 2: Bets on Campus Podcast. This is the croup of five

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Speaker 2: Deep Dive. I'm your co host Mike Caliberty is joined

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Speaker 2: by my co host Mike Ianello. We're gonna walk you

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Speaker 2: through everything that was noteworthy there in week three and

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Speaker 2: get right to the best bets. The g five to

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Speaker 2: five five are underdog parlay that almost gots to the window.

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Speaker 2: Been doing a lot better in that regard this season.

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Speaker 2: But let let's lay out some of the feel good

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Speaker 2: stories here. If you're watching on YouTube, you can see

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Speaker 2: my UNLV sweatshirt I am wearing with Pride Sluca. We

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Speaker 2: tried to warn you he is a roller coaster, and

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Speaker 2: he gave you everything that the Sluka experience promises. He

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Speaker 2: made some really boneheaded throws. He's had some issues with

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Speaker 2: downfield passing. He also just put the whole offense on

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Speaker 2: his back in every critical situation. Getting that upset of

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Speaker 2: Kansas on the road. Now two to zero against Big

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Speaker 2: twelve teams, so they got a shot for the Big

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Speaker 2: Twelve title as far as I'm concerned. They got Syracuse

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Speaker 2: on the horizon, so a chance to bolster that college

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Speaker 2: football Playoff resume even further. This has been year one.

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Speaker 2: This is where I'll get you in here.

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Speaker 3: I know.

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Speaker 2: This has been year one of the college football playoff

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Speaker 2: expansion to twelve teams. The G five top team gets

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Speaker 2: that auto bid. It's already even more exciting than I

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Speaker 2: thought it would be. There's so many teams that are relevant.

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Speaker 2: It's already putting some pressure on these teams like Northern Illinois.

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Speaker 2: Can they keep it up coming off of that upset

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Speaker 2: of Notre Dame. You have lots of programs. You know,

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Speaker 2: Texas State taking Arizona State, you know, fifteen rounds, nearly

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Speaker 2: winning that game, but proving in the process that they

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Speaker 2: belong at least in the conversation, this is an interesting dynamic.

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Speaker 2: What is your take thus far? On what the College

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Speaker 2: and Wall Playoff means to all these teams in the

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Speaker 2: G five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's been awesome. I think it kind

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Speaker 3: of puts you know, everyone talked about how it would

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Speaker 3: you know, separate the the groups more. I feel like

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Speaker 3: it has it. I feel like if anything that's brought

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Speaker 3: in the G five more relevant, you know you talk

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Speaker 3: about I mean, you know, for college basketball, you have

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Speaker 3: these resume builders, you know, wins or losses you have,

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Speaker 3: you know, Boise State taking Oak Oregon into the wire

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Speaker 3: is going to be a resume booster for them. You know,

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Speaker 3: you have the you know, like you said, Texas State

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Speaker 3: didn't beat Arizona State, but like I think anytime you

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Speaker 3: hang with the Power five, it's going to look good.

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Speaker 3: Even if you know, Mississippi State's horrific, but Toledo crushing

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Speaker 3: them in Starkville is going to be is gonna help

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Speaker 3: their case if Toledo runs the table. You know, you

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Speaker 3: have what was the other one? There was another Memphis,

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Speaker 3: Memphis being Florida State. Sure, Florida State sucks, but like

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Speaker 3: that's a good win from Memphis. And you had, you know, Toledo,

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Speaker 3: we had un LV taking Texas State taking Arizona takes

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Speaker 3: a while, you're UNLV obviously Northern Illinois, So I think

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Speaker 3: it's only helped. It's made these G five wins more relevant,

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Speaker 3: more talked about, and something that it's not just like

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Speaker 3: a conference blip in the radar. And then when you

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Speaker 3: flip on the selection show, they're breaking down which eight

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Speaker 3: and four sec team is really better. It's like, no, Now,

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Speaker 3: you know they're gonna be continuing to bring up these

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Speaker 3: G five games later in the years, like, hey, remember

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Speaker 3: when Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame, Like don't forget about

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Speaker 3: the Huskies as the playoff contender. Like I think it's

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Speaker 3: going to keep those G five teams and those big

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Speaker 3: wins relevant longer, which I'm very excited.

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Speaker 2: About separately just within conference play, you know, competing and

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Speaker 2: pitting these conferences against one another. I'm thrilled that the

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Speaker 2: MAC got that upset win with Northern Illinois beating Notre

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Speaker 2: Dame because this has been a conference that has been

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Speaker 2: outside of the running really for the auto bid for years.

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Speaker 2: So for them immediately to have a seat of the table,

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Speaker 2: a team to join another team like Toledo, where all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden, now if they could meet a ranked

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Speaker 2: matchup in the MAC title game that would have more

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Speaker 2: juice than it's had probably in its history. So a

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Speaker 2: very exciting possibility, at least on the horizon. As I

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Speaker 2: teamed up at the beginning our G five heroes from

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Speaker 2: week three, let's get it started with yours. I know,

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Speaker 2: locked hero babe.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, first of all, it certainly wasn't me.

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Speaker 2: I sucked.

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Speaker 3: I was terrible last week, so I just want to

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Speaker 3: go on the record saying hand up, I was horrific.

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Speaker 3: But Whindeorde Island. For a few days, I jumped in

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Speaker 3: the ocean to cleanse myself. I'm hoping to come back better,

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Speaker 3: So I apologize.

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Speaker 2: I had to go to a state with zero FBS teams.

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Speaker 2: You had to just get away from college football.

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Speaker 3: That week covered one where you can't you can't gamble,

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Speaker 3: so I would just have to clear my head, my hair.

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Speaker 3: The week is Cayden feut camp backup quarterback Western Kentucky

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Speaker 3: comes in out of the bullpen. TJ. Finley got hurt

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Speaker 3: in the first quarter. Twenty seven to thirty three hundred

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Speaker 3: and ninety yards five touchdowns lit up Middle Tennessee State,

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Speaker 3: And if you think where have I heard Cayden Feltcamp

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Speaker 3: before well, because he did the same thing in the

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Speaker 3: bowl game last year where he came in for Helton's

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Speaker 3: nephew against Old Domino. They were down like three touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: Threw for three hundred and eighty three yards and five

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Speaker 3: touchdowns in that game for a big twenty eight point comeback.

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Speaker 3: So he did break his own personal record of four

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Speaker 3: indred eighty three yards in this one. So awesome, Storry,

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Speaker 3: this is a kid that was going to enter the

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Speaker 3: portal after that bowl game already came out and said

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Speaker 3: it because the coaches at Western Kentucky told him he

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Speaker 3: wasn't good enough to play quarterback and if he either

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Speaker 3: had to leave or he was going to be forced

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Speaker 3: to play tight end balls out in the bowl game.

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Speaker 3: They then pivot convinced him to come back. They bringing

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Speaker 3: Finley to replace him. He loses his job anyway. Now

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Speaker 3: he's going to be the starter Western Kentucky may start

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Speaker 3: to be a buy on team. I love fel Camp,

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Speaker 3: so he gets my hero.

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Speaker 4: Of the week.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to be mentioning belt Camp in this very

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Speaker 2: pot So I'm glad that you brought him up earlier.

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Speaker 2: He's only had one career start, and yeah, it's been

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Speaker 2: an absolute electric show. I can't believe. And also he's

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Speaker 2: a three star recruit. He had some interest. I think

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Speaker 2: he had a verbal offer from Kentucky to be a

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Speaker 2: quarterback as well. So it's strange to me that they

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Speaker 2: had a kid with this level of play in him

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Speaker 2: on their roster and they went with TJ. Finley. But

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Speaker 2: it's all going to change now because Finley's in a

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Speaker 2: walking boot. He's out for at least three weeks according

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Speaker 2: to the coaching staff, and I think if l can't

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Speaker 2: plays anywhere close to that, he's not going to roll

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Speaker 2: and puish this job, all right? For my G five here,

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Speaker 2: this will be the first time that it's an inanimate object.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the gold Go Go chain

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Speaker 2: from Brennan Marion and UNLV. This team has swag, they

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Speaker 2: have the coaching, they have the players. It's just a

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Speaker 2: fun team and like, that's our job here. It's to

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Speaker 2: give out winners and to identify what the fun storyline is.

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Speaker 2: Brendan Marian is just a phenomenal dresser, apparently on top

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Speaker 2: of everything else. So his swag is influencing the run

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Speaker 2: and ReBs play on the field. I can't wait to

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Speaker 2: see them against Syracuse in a couple weeks. And that's

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Speaker 2: what's so fun about college football. If you had told

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Speaker 2: us six months ago, circle your calendar SYRACUCNLV potential ranked matchup. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so that's the kind of time travel stuff that just

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Speaker 2: wouldn't hold up. We're gonna hop from this right into

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Speaker 2: best bets, keeping the train moving here. I'm gonna go

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Speaker 2: first this week. I'm gonna go with our old G

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Speaker 2: five hero, that's head coach Kurt Signetti now at Indiana

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Speaker 2: lay in twenty eight. That twenty eight, twenty eight and

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Speaker 2: a half in the market. Don't worry, I played all

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Speaker 2: the way up to thirty and a half. If you're

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Speaker 2: listening to this a little bit later because they're playing

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Speaker 2: Charlotte and Charlott's a tire fire. I'll get to the

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Speaker 2: forty nine ers in a moment. Let's first go back

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Speaker 2: to Signetti, who's an absolute monster. He wants to win.

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Speaker 2: He wants to win big, and not just for this year.

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Speaker 2: He wants to be able to recruit and whether he

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Speaker 2: does in the portal at the high school ranks, he

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Speaker 2: wants to show that Indiana is playing a fun brand

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Speaker 2: of football. Well, they're just running it up on everybody.

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Speaker 2: They dropped, you know, seventy plus on Western Illinois. They

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Speaker 2: dropped the hammer on UCLA. Welcome to the Big ten there, Bruins,

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Speaker 2: beating them forty two to thirteen. And when you look

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Speaker 2: at Signetti's performance against the closing numbers since moving up

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Speaker 2: to the FBS level, seven and four, eight and five,

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Speaker 2: two and one against the spread seventeen to ten in

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Speaker 2: his career, cashing sixty three percent at tickets. And if

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Speaker 2: you would listen to us in week one, got that

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Speaker 2: good number against FIU, He's three and zero here with

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Speaker 2: the Hoosiers. I just look at what they're doing offensively,

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Speaker 2: and the Maple missile is so comfortable. It's clear that

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Speaker 2: he is thriving in this offense. They have the perimeter

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Speaker 2: weapons to be able to run it up and Charlotte

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Speaker 2: just limps into this game. They're without Max Brown at quarterback.

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Speaker 2: He's ruled out for this one. They're a bottom ten

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Speaker 2: team without him at quarterback in terms of their current

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Speaker 2: roster and quarterback situation. So I want to target those

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Speaker 2: teams to just get bombed off the map. They needed

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Speaker 2: a twenty one point fourth quarter to beat lifeless Gardner

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Speaker 2: Web by one. They can't run, they can't protect the quarterback.

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Speaker 2: They're ranking bottom ten in both of those metrics, and

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Speaker 2: the only way that they've made up for it thus

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Speaker 2: far this year is they've been able to hit some

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Speaker 2: chunk play a lot of them against Gardner Web, but

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Speaker 2: they average three plays of thirty plus yards per game.

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Speaker 2: The issue here against the Hoosiers Indiana is not giving

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Speaker 2: up chunk plays. IU is one of the best teams

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Speaker 2: in the entire country in terms of limiting explosives, and

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Speaker 2: we all want the Biff story, Biff Pogy to be

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Speaker 2: a fun story, the no sleeves, the brashness, you know,

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Speaker 2: basically flipping his entire roster. Well, Biff needs to go

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Speaker 2: back to the future and not take this Charlotte job.

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Speaker 1: My calculations are correct. When this baby hits eighty eight

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Speaker 1: miles per hour here, I gotta see some serious shit.

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Speaker 2: That is the issue that we have here. Because this

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Speaker 2: was a year zero last year, It's still a year

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Speaker 2: zero in this situation. I'm going to advocate Indiana first half.

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Speaker 2: I don't care if you have to lay twenty in

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Speaker 2: this one. I'm gonna take them game. I think they're

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Speaker 2: just going to run it up on the forty nine ers,

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Speaker 2: because that's what cigarette Signetti is. He's somebody who wants

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Speaker 2: to smoke him. If he got him, run it up,

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Speaker 2: try to lay a number on somebody. I think they

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Speaker 2: do it again here, so I guess I played it

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Speaker 2: all the way up to thirty and a half. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: First of all, if we have any listeners here in Bloomington,

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Speaker 3: I know the first game they were handing out the

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Speaker 3: Signetti T shirts that look like the Marlboro logo. I

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Speaker 3: will pay any amount of money for one of those

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Speaker 3: T shirts. Somebody DM me if you have a shirt

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Speaker 3: and are willing to sell it or give it to me,

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Speaker 3: because I desperately need one of those. And much like cigarettes,

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Speaker 3: Signetti's a stone gold killer, so's he's someone you want to.

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Speaker 2: Back in the spot.

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Speaker 3: I mean you were watching it was a Week two

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Speaker 3: where they play Week two some FCS school. They're of

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Speaker 3: seventy and he was red as a tomato. He was

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Speaker 3: so mad that they gained like three yards. He is

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Speaker 3: a full blown step on the throat, no mercy, leave

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Speaker 3: no questions. So yeah, I love backing him at these

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Speaker 3: big spreads because they can be up thirty five and

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Speaker 3: if they give up a first down, he's going to

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Speaker 3: be ripping them apart on the sidelines.

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Speaker 2: So I love it to your point. They're up forty

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Speaker 2: two to three against the Leathernecks of Western Illinois, great nickname.

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Speaker 2: They scored thirty five more in the second half. That

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Speaker 2: a show is the kind of guy that he is.

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Speaker 2: See what he wants to have one.

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Speaker 3: And if you watched him on the sidelines, he was

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Speaker 3: furious they didn't score more like legitimately furious that whole game.

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Speaker 2: Now you Mentionedveldcamp as your G five hero, I gotta

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Speaker 2: throw in the Maple Missile stats recently last two games

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Speaker 2: forty for fifty five hundred and seventy five yards sixty

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Speaker 2: d's zero picks. Another one of our former G five boys,

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Speaker 2: all grown up killing it in the Big ten. All right,

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Speaker 2: who do you have as your best bet for Week four?

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with a rare total for me. You

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Speaker 3: are the over boy, so we'll see what you think

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Speaker 3: of this one. Over fifty four and a half Tulane

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Speaker 3: versus Louisiana. I think this game is going to feel

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Speaker 3: like for Tulane, this game is gonna feel like when

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Speaker 3: a baseball player is swinging a bat with a donut

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Speaker 3: on the on deck circle and then they take it

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Speaker 3: off and that bat feels like nothing in their hands.

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Speaker 3: Because Tulane is coming off games against Kansas State and Oklahoma,

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Speaker 3: so this Louisiana defense is going to be a very

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Speaker 3: welcome site for them. And despite playing as the elevated competition,

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Speaker 3: I actually still thought Tulane looked pretty good on offense.

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Speaker 3: They're averaging six point six yards per play on offense.

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Speaker 3: They rank thirty third in EPA per play. Darian Mensa

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Speaker 3: was kind of like a surprise starter. I don't think

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Speaker 3: any of us mentioned him in the preseason. We all

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Speaker 3: assumed to be kay Hortan ty Thompson, but this gid

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Speaker 3: get thrown around a little bit. He has an average

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Speaker 3: depth of target of thirteen point two, which is like

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Speaker 3: third in the American He is certainly not afraid to

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Speaker 3: push the ball downfield and helps having stud receiver Mario Williams,

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Speaker 3: the former usc AT Oklahoma transfer. He's averaging over twenty

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Speaker 3: two yards per catch ninety six yards per game. He

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Speaker 3: is nasty. Kai Hughes, one of the best backs in

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Speaker 3: the G five We've talked about him a lot over

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Speaker 3: the years. I think his offense will continue to be

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Speaker 3: more exciting once they can, you know, open things up

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Speaker 3: a little bit more against normal competition. And then for Louisiana,

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Speaker 3: they're a weird team. We've only seen them play two games,

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Speaker 3: so they played an FCS team in Kannessas State, who's

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Speaker 3: basically an FCS team, So they've been able to flex

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Speaker 3: their muscles. They're averaging thirty seven points per game. Ben

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Speaker 3: Wooldridge is really he's really no good rhythm here is

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Speaker 3: that completing seventy seven percent of his passes, spreading it

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Speaker 3: around a lot. Five players on this team are ravaging

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Speaker 3: at least five to at least twenty five receiving yards

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Speaker 3: per game. It's Alan Perry and Elijah Davis, both good

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Speaker 3: running backs, both running ball really well. Louisiana has gained

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Speaker 3: seventy seven point six percent of their available yards this season.

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Speaker 3: That is the most in the country, so there's sixteenth

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Speaker 3: yards to play. I just think it's offense. It's kind

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Speaker 3: of a I like them both for two different reasons.

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Speaker 3: Where Tulane is now getting like they're able to flex

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Speaker 3: their muscles what they haven't where Louisiana is in full

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Speaker 3: confidence mode right now, so I'm not totally sold on

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Speaker 3: both defenses. Even against the lesser competition. Louisiana's defense is

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Speaker 3: just seventy fifth and Epajulane. They replaced a ton of

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Speaker 3: starters on the defense, So Louisian's coming off a bye.

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Speaker 3: I think their offense will be in good rhythm, come

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Speaker 3: out strong with a few tricks up their sleeves. And

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Speaker 3: like I said, I think Tulane will take the opportunity

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Speaker 3: to open things up a bit. And you're getting under

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Speaker 3: the key number of fifty five, which is the most

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Speaker 3: important number in college football. So give me over fifty

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Speaker 3: four and a half in Chulaanne, Louisiana. I want to

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Speaker 3: know your thoughts on the over. I was one of

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Speaker 3: your thoughts in the game because I was actually very

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Speaker 3: close to taking two lane minus two and a half

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Speaker 3: in this one, and then I ended up phivoting to

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Speaker 3: the open.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think it's difficult because essentially an extended preseason

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Speaker 2: for Louisiana, a team that it wasn't necessarily high on,

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Speaker 2: not high on Woolridge, but he's done everything that you

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Speaker 2: would hope that he would do against these opponents taking

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Speaker 2: the baby step forward. And it is interesting because even

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Speaker 2: see it in the NFL, there's differential between quarterbacks who

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Speaker 2: got reps in preseason, like Derek Carr and the Saints.

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Speaker 2: They ended up playing him in multiple preseason games. They've

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Speaker 2: come out red hot. I know that Bryce Young is

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Speaker 2: getting a lot of dirt thrown on him, but they

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Speaker 2: essentially played him what one drive in the whole preseason

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Speaker 2: and thought that he would be fine. Even professional quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: whether it's a veteran like Car or an up and

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Speaker 2: comer like Young, you need the reps so to be

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Speaker 2: able to go through that and build confidence. I think

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Speaker 2: that is interesting. My only concern with this one would

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Speaker 2: be kind of the body blow theory on Tulane having

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Speaker 2: to play up against these power forwar teams. How much

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Speaker 2: do they have in the tank? So I think, really

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Speaker 2: you'll probably know the first two to three drives if

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Speaker 2: they're not showing any wear and tear and they come

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Speaker 2: out guns of blazon. I think that number is ripe

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Speaker 2: to go over. And I'm glad because this is my

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Speaker 2: first dance card of the season. Here at the group

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Speaker 2: of five DP drive, I don't have an over, don't

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Speaker 2: even have a total on the board, so I'm glad

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Speaker 2: that you're doing it for us this week. All right,

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00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:36,960
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Speaker 4: You know what I'm saying now.

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Speaker 2: It's signed for the G five High five. Last week,

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Speaker 2: I only put two picks in, which means I'm doing

356
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Speaker 2: the heavy lifting here with three the.

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Speaker 4: G five High five should be high five High five.

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Speaker 2: And I'll get things kick started with Utah.

359
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Speaker 1: We're talking minor Nation out in thews Texans town of

360
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Speaker 1: l past.

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Speaker 2: So picks up Minor Nation. Shout out to West Texas

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Speaker 2: l Passo. I'll take the ten points here. It's been

363
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,920
Speaker 2: floating in the market between nine, nine and a half ten.

364
00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:57,920
Speaker 2: I got it at eleven earlier in the week. If

365
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Speaker 2: you have to buy the half point to get up

366
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Speaker 2: to ten and lay minus one thirty, I think it's

367
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Speaker 2: of value to do. So. They're going to be in

368
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Speaker 2: four collins at Colorado State here, and it's pretty simple.

369
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Speaker 2: Colorado State is coming off a huge emotional letdown. They

370
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Speaker 2: talked all the trash in the world against Colorado. They

371
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 2: were ready to seek revenge. It had that Super Bowl

372
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,160
Speaker 2: feel and they lay an egg on their home field.

373
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Speaker 2: They scored three points in the first three and a

374
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Speaker 2: half quarters against the Buffaloes, and we know that Dion's

375
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:28,440
Speaker 2: defense is not the eighty five Bears. They finished with

376
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Speaker 2: just two hundred nine passing yards. Braden Fowler Nickelosi's QBR

377
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,800
Speaker 2: against the Buffs six point four out of one hundred.

378
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,320
Speaker 2: So the question here is can this offense get going.

379
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,480
Speaker 2: I'm betting no because Tory Horden is unlikely to play.

380
00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,159
Speaker 2: He's questionable. Really, he shouldn't even played last week. He

381
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:45,800
Speaker 2: was just trying to gut it out in their game

382
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 2: of the year. That's a major concern for the Rams offense.

383
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,280
Speaker 2: He's the special playmaker. There's no Justice Ross Simmons anymore.

384
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,800
Speaker 2: He's off to Syracuse. There's no Dalen Hooker, he's in

385
00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,760
Speaker 2: the NFL. This receiving corps is considerably below average. Outside

386
00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,280
Speaker 2: of Horton, he makes everybody else better. He gets one

387
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,719
Speaker 2: on one coverage where he gets all of the attention

388
00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,720
Speaker 2: from zone defenses. Without him in this lineup, I really

389
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:11,280
Speaker 2: questioned Faler Nicelosi's ability to hurt UTEP consistently in this game. Now,

390
00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 2: this is still a year zero rebuild for the Miners,

391
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 2: but Skyler Locklear, having watched most of their games, you

392
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 2: know speed through the Southern Utah recap game. But he's

393
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,760
Speaker 2: flashed a little bit. And when you consider the competition

394
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 2: that they played against, drawing Liberty went to the Festa Bowl,

395
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,920
Speaker 2: you know, in their opener against Nebraska, a revitalized Kornhusker team.

396
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,200
Speaker 2: It's understandable that they're underlying metrics and stats are not

397
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 2: that great, but I am impressed with the minor defense.

398
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:37,879
Speaker 2: I figured they were going to be absolutely one of

399
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,639
Speaker 2: the worst defenses at the FBS level, particularly with an

400
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,720
Speaker 2: offense playing with tempo, the potential for quick three and outs,

401
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,040
Speaker 2: leaving them on the field a lot. But they've been

402
00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:48,239
Speaker 2: a little bit better than that. When you look at

403
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 2: Bill Conley's numbers, he hasn't had one hundred and fifteenth

404
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,639
Speaker 2: in defensive S and P plus they're creating negative plays

405
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,480
Speaker 2: their top sixty and tackles for loss, and they're halfway

406
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 2: decent in the red zone ranking forty ninth and scores

407
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,960
Speaker 2: allowed inside of their own twenty. So I think UTEP

408
00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,360
Speaker 2: has an opportunity against a Colorado State offense that has

409
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,439
Speaker 2: issues to be able to kind of hold the line here.

410
00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 2: So the question is ken Scottie Walden's fast paced offense

411
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,480
Speaker 2: work avoid negative plays and getting behind the sticks, because

412
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 2: that's been the issue when Locklear is getting roughed up

413
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,720
Speaker 2: and he's getting sacked and they're behind schedule. This is

414
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 2: an offense that can struggle a little bit. Luckily, Colorado

415
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,479
Speaker 2: State no pass rush, maybe the worst pass rush in America.

416
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 2: Now that Mo Kamara is off to the NFL and

417
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 2: their secondary one hundred and twenty fourth in coverage grade,

418
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,320
Speaker 2: I promised myself that there'd be one or two spots

419
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,159
Speaker 2: this year to back Wolden and our beloved minors. This

420
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 2: is a spot. Get that key number of ten. Either

421
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 2: wait it out or by the half point. I'm on

422
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Speaker 2: utub here minor mother FN Nation for mine.

423
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Speaker 3: I'm going with a team Ivan Han all year and

424
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 3: I'm going to back him here in this game. And

425
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 3: you better be hey. Oh, by the way, we were

426
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,440
Speaker 3: texting during the Texas State game. Let me clear something

427
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,359
Speaker 3: up because everyone thinks me and Breeze have this. You

428
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:56,959
Speaker 3: know he's on Texa State. I'm against them. We are

429
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Speaker 3: a T shirt bet whatever. Let's be clear when that's

430
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 3: for the conference. When they're playing non con game, we

431
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 3: g five boys right here. I was screaming at my

432
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 3: TV rooting for Texas State, not just because I had

433
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 3: the over and one then the score, but with G

434
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 3: five G five, I always will defend the G five

435
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 3: and root for them, even when it's not the team

436
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 3: I want to win the conference. And you damn well

437
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 3: better do the same on Saturday, because we're riding with

438
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,640
Speaker 3: James Madison. Plus ten and a half against North Carolina

439
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 3: has no effect on your sun Belt bet, so we're

440
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,640
Speaker 3: riding with the Dukes. North Carolina is three to zero

441
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 3: with wins against Minnesota, Charlotte, and NC Central, but they

442
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 3: have yet to cover a spread against three teams I

443
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 3: don't think are very good. They lost Max Johnson in

444
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 3: the season opener against Minnesota. Since then, they have started

445
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 3: Connor Harrell against both. He started I think both Charlotte

446
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 3: and ANTI Central, but he barely played against the Central.

447
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 3: He started, played like three series. Jacoby Chriswell came in

448
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 3: played the entire rest of the game. Mack Brown has

449
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 3: come out already and said both will play against James Madison.

450
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 3: As you have two quarterbacks, you have none. The reason

451
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,159
Speaker 3: is because neither one of them are very good, and

452
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 3: neither one of them have been able to gain the job.

453
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 3: I don't think Max Johnson is good, so I think

454
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 3: him starting the season as QB one was already a

455
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 3: bad sign for these two. So I just don't think

456
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,199
Speaker 3: they have a good quarterback. Yes, Omarion Hampton is obviously

457
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 3: a stud, but the QB situation really concerns me. James Madison,

458
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 3: we know they're gonna be good against run. They've always

459
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 3: be good against the run. They've still been good against

460
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,360
Speaker 3: the run. And for the Dukes, you know, they ended

461
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 3: up going with Alonza Barnett at quarterback instead of Dylan Morris,

462
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 3: which we all assumed. But after watching James Madison, I

463
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 3: think and they also watching Sluca, I think it's clear why,

464
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 3: because clearly they want to run this. You know, they

465
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 3: want a mobile quarterback. They want a dual threat quarterback.

466
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 3: That's what they ran at holy Cross with Suka. Now

467
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 3: they're doing it with Barnetcause they want the mobile guy.

468
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: He is much more dangerous with his legs. He's averaging

469
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy seven yards per game passing fifty

470
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 3: two per game rushing. He and George Petaway have been

471
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 3: a dynamic pairing on the ground. So for starters, I

472
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 3: always like backing, you know, double digit underdogs when both

473
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 3: teams strength is running the ball. That's what both teams

474
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 3: are going to look to do. Both teams ranked top

475
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 3: ten in the country in success rate against the run

476
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 3: on defense. So I don't even hate I don't hate

477
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 3: the under here. I'll either to be honest with you,

478
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 3: but I think it's going to be kind of a

479
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 3: muck it up, slow game. We've seen the ACC struggle

480
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 3: this whole season, all the theazy or bad ex at Miami. Also,

481
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,880
Speaker 3: we know North Carolina loves to mess around in these

482
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 3: spots against Sun Belt teams. I mean, app states what,

483
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 3: beating them like twice and almost beat them another time.

484
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 3: So I think U and C not having quarterback is

485
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 3: going to be a big issue here. I expect Chesney

486
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 3: to have James Madison. That's another two by the way

487
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 3: game like this, which coach is going to have the

488
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 3: boys ready to play Mac Brown's old ass against the

489
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 3: sun Belt team or Jeremy Renner looking Bob Chesney firing

490
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 3: up the Dukes to go into Chapel Hill. Give me

491
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 3: James Madison plus ten and a half against the Tar Hills.

492
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 3: I mean, your help. I can't tell you what it is.

493
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 2: You can never asked me about it later, and we're

494
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 2: going to hurt some people's Kyle.

495
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 3: I going to tank.

496
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 2: It's the Petway revenge game. North Carolina tracks as well,

497
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 2: added angles that game. Yeah, it's a pass for me,

498
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 2: although the number going through a card that I didn't

499
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 2: necessarily love. That was like cutting a room floor for me.

500
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: All Right, I'm going to go with a team. Well,

501
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 2: I'm gonna fade this team. I gotta put my money

502
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 2: where my mouth. I said that La Tec was so

503
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 2: bad that they were going to get Sunny Comby fired.

504
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 2: I still think that they're going to struggle this season.

505
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 2: They needed a fourth quarter rally to beat Nichols using

506
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 2: two quarterbacks. They get a fluky seventy one yard catch

507
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 2: and run against NC City. He saw that play. He

508
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 2: gets like a slant pass. There's four wolf Pack defenders

509
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 2: all within arm's length of him. He spins around, runs

510
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 2: out for a long touchdown. They also had a fifty

511
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 2: seven yard field goal in the first half of that game.

512
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: NC State was sleepy in that one. They end up

513
00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 2: getting it together in the second half. The Bulldogs are

514
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 2: outscored by We'll Pack twenty four to three in the

515
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 2: final thirty minutes. I think that's closer to the quality

516
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,120
Speaker 2: that they're going to bring to the field here on Saturday.

517
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: Neither Jack Turner nor Blake Baker are very accurate or

518
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 2: averaging just two point five yards per carry as a team,

519
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 2: but they generated long plays and they've gotten really strong

520
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 2: special teams play, and I think that's what's been the

521
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 2: differentiator to make them look a little bit better than

522
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: they are now. The Golden Hurricane with Tulsa taken the

523
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 2: plus three and a half here. I like Tulsa's offense

524
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 2: a lot more than Latex, and I understand that the

525
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: last time they played in the recency bias, they got

526
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 2: spanked by Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State under Mike Gundy, they're

527
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 2: always one of the most schizophrenic teams in the entire country.

528
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 2: They almost lose to Arkansas where they can't open any

529
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,679
Speaker 2: holes for Ali Gordon in the first half, then all

530
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 2: of a sudden, Alan Bowman last week against Tulsa just

531
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,959
Speaker 2: goes full God mode, plays like their a top fifteen

532
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 2: team that's going to be in the mix for the

533
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 2: college football playoff. I don't care about that. That is

534
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: so far away from what this game is about in

535
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 2: terms of the talent differential. This is down in the muck.

536
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 2: This is trash, kind of G five level. I'm going

537
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 2: to go ahead and take the points because LA Tech

538
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,120
Speaker 2: is also a home field in Rustin that's not worth

539
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 2: very much. The Bulldogs are twenty and twenty two against

540
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 2: the spread as a home favorite in the last decade,

541
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 2: which is below average. This is not something where they're

542
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,639
Speaker 2: going to be walking into a house of hors And

543
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 2: as I said at the beginning the Golden Hurricane, I

544
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 2: like some of the pieces they have on offense. Camden

545
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: Benjamin has been a very impressive big play threat. He's

546
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 2: got chemistry with Kirk Francis. I know that they pulled

547
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 2: him in the last game in terms of Francis, but

548
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 2: I think that was just more or less it's not working.

549
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 2: Everybody's having a bad day. I think they're going to

550
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 2: go back to him. They use Cardel Williams in the

551
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 2: gold to go packages, which gives them different elements offensively,

552
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 2: So I think you're going to see him on the

553
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 2: field as a runner. I think that just gives them

554
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 2: a little bit more offensively. And I talked about Louisiana

555
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 2: Tech's special teams. This is where I'll close here on Tulsa.

556
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,719
Speaker 2: Tulsa can flip this game in the return game. Only Oregon, Central,

557
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 2: Michigan and the Golden Hurricane have both a punt and

558
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 2: kickoff return for a touchdown this year. They have special

559
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 2: playmakers like Benjamin in that regard. So I'm gonna go

560
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 2: ahead and take the points here. I considered it as

561
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 2: my money line underdog play, but over that key number

562
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:06,639
Speaker 2: of threas enough for me.

563
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 3: We tried this strategy last week and it did not work.

564
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 3: But I will be talking about this game later on

565
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 3: the show.

566
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 2: All right, what do you have next?

567
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 3: All Right, I'm going with one a pick that we

568
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 3: don't do this very often on our show. I feel

569
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 3: like this is just this is almost more of a

570
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 3: like a stucky move. This is just a strict numbers play.

571
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 3: Hold your nose. Give me New Mexico State plus sixteen

572
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 3: and a half against sam Houston State.

573
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: Oh that's growth.

574
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 3: I think this line is insane. It's insane. At samuse

575
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 3: D it's a sixteen and a half point favorite. I

576
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 3: mean samuse D has won five games at the FBS

577
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 3: level in two years, and they're sixteen and a half

578
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 3: point favorites here. But speaking of Colin Stock, if you

579
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 3: listen to the preseason podcasts, you know Colin Wilson is

580
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 3: very high on Sam Houston. He is much higher on

581
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 3: them than me, So keep that in mind. His power

582
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 3: ratings only make Sam Houston State a sixteen and a

583
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 3: half point favorite against Yumas, Temple, UTEP and Kent State.

584
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 3: He makes this game nine now. Obviously, fading the Bearcats

585
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 3: did not work last week for me. Proner Watson bounced

586
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 3: back nicely, but he's still a very below average quarterback.

587
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 3: He had just one hundred and sixty five yards passing.

588
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 3: The team was able to run the ball all day.

589
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 3: I still don't think he's very good. Sam Houston is

590
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty fourth in success rate on offense.

591
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,399
Speaker 3: They're one hundred and nineteenth on defense. Like, I know,

592
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,479
Speaker 3: New Mexico State's terrible, but you know we saw them.

593
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 3: They are able to muck things up against Liberty a

594
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 3: few weeks ago, only lost by six.

595
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 2: I think, you know.

596
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 3: Just also look at this game from like an odds

597
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 3: maker's point of view. New Mexico State was plus twenty

598
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 3: two against Liberty and plus twenty and a half against

599
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 3: Fresno State and Now there's sixteen and a half against

600
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 3: sam Houston, So that means Fresno State would be like

601
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 3: a four point favorite against sam Houston, which is crazy.

602
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 3: Fresno State would be like a fourteen point favorite against

603
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 3: sam Houston. So this line, just this number makes no sense.

604
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 3: Aggy suck, but sam Houston is not seventeen points better

605
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 3: than them. I'm taking the Aggies give. By the way,

606
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 3: don't even get me started on Money Hawkins not getting

607
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 3: the ball. He's like their third running back. I don't

608
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 3: understand it. Give the ball forty eight times in this

609
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 3: game and the Aggies will win sixty and a half

610
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 3: is crazy for this number.

611
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 2: I have two things in my head at the same time.

612
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 2: I am a Hunter Watson believer. I know that he

613
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 2: doesn't play the most aesthetically pleasing brand of football, but

614
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 2: as a dual threat, he's going to get it done

615
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 2: in this offense. However, this number is crazy. Yeah, dealing

616
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 2: with very large numbers here, you were correct in terms

617
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 2: of everything you laid out. It doesn't make sense. It

618
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 2: doesn't now. I know that, like the transitive property of

619
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 2: college football, betting is not something that you can actually

620
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 2: take to the bank. Where this team's seven points better

621
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 2: than that team, and this, you know, it can be

622
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 2: difficult to get into the weeds like that. But purely

623
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: from a numbers perspective, which is how you presented it,

624
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 2: there's only one side to bet in this all right.

625
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 2: In the preseason, I pumped up the Service Academy as well,

626
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 2: two of the three, I should say, I pumped up Army,

627
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 2: and they did some right ups on it. Why I

628
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 2: thought both of them would go bowling. Armies looked really

629
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 2: good out of the gate. They're laying five here against

630
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: the Rice Als at home, and let's zoom out here

631
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 2: for a forty thousand foot view of the Army program.

632
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: Since t taking over at Army, Jeff Monkin has taken

633
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: advantage of rest. When he has a rest advantage over

634
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 2: his opponent an extra week to prepare for Rice. In

635
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 2: this case, he is twenty five and sixteen against the

636
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 2: spread in those scenarios, sixty one percent cash rate. Now

637
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 2: Rice is coming in having just got smacked around by Houston,

638
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 2: a team that they beat last year that really put

639
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 2: wind in their sales, ended up helping them, you know,

640
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 2: get over the hump and get back to a bowl game.

641
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 2: Whereas this year they get crushed. Their quarterback play has

642
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 2: been horrific. EJ. Warner get benched in that game? Will

643
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 2: it be Drew DeVillier or Warner? Who knows? Not a

644
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: great sign for you know, walking into an opponent that's

645
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 2: as buttoned up as Army. So I know, I get it.

646
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 2: I understand the narrative, which is you always look to

647
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 2: avoid a Service Academy favorite to be land points with

648
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: this triple option offense if you want to target them

649
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 2: under three, if they're a favorite, but ideally as an underdog.

650
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 2: But Rice hasn't played a Service Academy a triple option

651
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 2: offense in five years, and the last time they did

652
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 2: it was Army and they lost fourteen to seven. So

653
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 2: I think in terms of the short preparation time to

654
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 2: get ready for this where they're headed offensively, which is

655
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 2: nowhere fast, I just think that this play is screaming

656
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: Army anything under a touchdown to see it sitting at five.

657
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 2: This is not a public team. It's not going to

658
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 2: take steam. I don't think it's going to get up

659
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: to seven because all of the underlying metrics for Rice,

660
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 2: it's just they're blow average against the run. They're giving

661
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 2: up one hundred and fifty one on the ground, their

662
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 2: defensive stuff rate one hundred and fifteen, defensive rush EPA

663
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty seven. The more you get into

664
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 2: their profile, the DNA and this defense, it just screams

665
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 2: that they're going to get beat up by this Army

666
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 2: rushing attack, which has looked great. I mean, Bryson Daly

667
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 2: is exactly what I was hoping he would be. He

668
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 2: was the catalyst last year for their four game win streak.

669
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 2: He's carried it over to this year. And the only

670
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 2: thing that the Rice defense can do is they're geared

671
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 2: to stop the pass. A lot of their metrics there,

672
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: coverage grade, in terms of EPA against the past, they're

673
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: all really good. So I think Rice is a team

674
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 2: to keep in the back of your mind later in

675
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 2: the season. If they're playing a pass first team and

676
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 2: they're catching a lot of points, I think they can

677
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 2: muck things up and make it difficult for teams to

678
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 2: get down the field and score through the air. But

679
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 2: when I look at Army, what are they gonna do.

680
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: They're gonna run. They're number one and rushing success rate

681
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 2: in the country. Their defense has been but not break

682
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 2: their top fifty and third down defense, their fourth in

683
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 2: red zone defense, albeit with a small sample size. So

684
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 2: the Woodies defense is something I've always believed in. He's

685
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 2: a great tactician. He's been a Broiles nominee before for

686
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 2: this reason. You just said it within New Mexico state

687
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 2: handicap where it's like it doesn't matter the personnel, like

688
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 2: there's not a star that they need to have three

689
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 2: tackles for a loss on this defense or a shutdown corner.

690
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 2: They play team football. All eleven guys run into the ball.

691
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 2: So I'm going to go ahead and lay the five.

692
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: As I said, as long as you get it under

693
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 2: that key number of seven. It's a play on the Cadets.

694
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 3: Song I wrote deeply have many Army, Have many Army.

695
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 2: Me imy ony Homy.

696
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 3: I actually had this written down as one of my

697
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 3: like best of the rest picks that I strongly considered.

698
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 3: Didn't end up pulling the trigger on both playing to

699
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 3: bet it. I'm very glad you're on it. That seals

700
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 3: the deal that I will add that to my card

701
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 3: as well.

702
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 2: All Right, we're gonna close things out with our favorite segment,

703
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 2: at least for this year, the underdog money line parlay.

704
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 2: We've been clicking on this hit one already this season.

705
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 2: We got close a few other times. So here it is.

706
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get started quickly.

707
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 3: Where's Mine? Where's Mine?

708
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 2: Talked about it Western Kentucky, cade Veldt Camp. He is

709
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 2: a wagon. I'm hitching my bet to it. I had

710
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,239
Speaker 2: to take the money line over Toledo. Toledo's getting all

711
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 2: this love for dog Walk in Mississippi State. They deserve it.

712
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,479
Speaker 2: They didn't just beat Missippi State in Starkville, they crushed him.

713
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 2: Are we sure that Mississippi State isn't trash? I'm not

714
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 2: quite so sure. An impressive result. I'm not going to

715
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 2: take anything away from the re I'm sure they are trash. Yes,

716
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 2: But when you play with Toledo, your roll in the

717
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 2: dice with Tucker Gleeson and what do we know? He's

718
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 2: a boomer bus guy. He just had a great game.

719
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 2: But let's talk about his last four starts. Stinker against

720
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 2: Wyoming in the Barstool Bowl, smooth performance against FCS Ducaine.

721
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 2: No disrespect to the Dukes, but I don't care about

722
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: that stinker against UMass this season he went eight for

723
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 2: twenty three, and then he just rolls into Starkville and

724
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 2: plays like an all SEC quarterback, killing Mississippi State. So

725
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 2: he's up and down. And then you look at Jason Kandell,

726
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 2: their head coach since twenty eighteen, He's ten and eleven

727
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 2: against the spread as a road favorite, and of those

728
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 2: eleven against the spread losses, six were outright. Now, what

729
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 2: do I get with this Western Kentucky play? I got

730
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 2: Kate Belcamp, he played significant snaps only twice. We don't

731
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 2: need to go through all the stats to Street Bowl MVP.

732
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 2: The guy's already a legend in my book, and he's

733
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 2: into a system that needed this kind of quarterback to

734
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 2: unlock all of their potential and ceiling on the perimeter

735
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 2: with their receiving core. He's done it. So the fact

736
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 2: is they have one of the best KEP secrets in

737
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 2: the G five as their star quarterback. You're not gonna

738
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,320
Speaker 2: get a number that's this advantageous on him if he

739
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,439
Speaker 2: puts up even one more huge game. And Toledo, here's

740
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 2: the last piece of the puzzle for me. They lost

741
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 2: a lot in their secondary. They still have talent back

742
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 2: on their defense, evidenced by their performance in the first

743
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 2: three weeks, but no Quinnon Mitchell corner and no Chris McDonald,

744
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 2: who is also all mac at corner. This is the

745
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 2: first passing game that I feel real bullish on that

746
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 2: they played this entire season. I think the Hilltoppers are

747
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 2: going to throw for three hundred and fifty plus in

748
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 2: this game, spur and upset. So I'm going to go

749
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 2: ahead with the Hilltoppers as my money line underdog. What

750
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,800
Speaker 2: do you think here? Just purely from a quarterback, you know,

751
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 2: head to head belt Camp against Gleason, I think that's

752
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:50,720
Speaker 2: a big advantage.

753
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 3: I love it. I didn't. I obviously didn't know you.

754
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 3: We don't share. I did not know you were taking us.

755
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 3: And I teased it at the top that Western Kentucky

756
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 3: is going to be a buy on team because I

757
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 3: like this pick as well. Question before you in this one,

758
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 3: who's a better offensive line Western Kentucky or Mississippi?

759
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 2: Stated, I mean, at least in terms of how belt

760
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 2: Camp gets the ball out of his hands, I'd rather

761
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 2: have him slinging it and him having that internal clock

762
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 2: in it. Said, So yeah, I'll go Western against this

763
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 2: fleet off front.

764
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 3: I'd rather have the Toppers.

765
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 2: So I like it a lot.

766
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 3: And then I'm gonna take mine. I know you like it.

767
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 3: Give me Tulsa money line right the way if I

768
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 3: just I don't think Tulsa's quite as bad as we

769
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 3: thought they were going to be coming into the air,

770
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 3: you know, like you said, they got smoked by Oklahoma State,

771
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 3: but the offense still managed over five yards per play.

772
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 3: They hung with Arkansas State the week before. I mean,

773
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 3: they're fifty ninth in offensive success rate and eighty fourth

774
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:39,959
Speaker 3: on defense. I mean, that's nothing right at home about.

775
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 3: But I think we expected them to be a bottom

776
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 3: twenty team. Francis has been serviceable. They have three running

777
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 3: backs averaging over forty yards per game. And you mentioned it.

778
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 3: Cam Benjamin is becoming a star. He was Francis is

779
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 3: clearly his favorite target at the end of last season.

780
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 3: They quickly developed great chemistry. You've seen it already.

781
00:35:57,640 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 2: This year.

782
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 3: He's averaging nearly one hundred yards per game. Meanwhile, LA

783
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,880
Speaker 3: Tech is a one hundred and thirty first in success

784
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 3: story on offense, despite paying playing half their games against

785
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 3: an FCS team. Surprisingly, they actually looked much better against

786
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 3: NC State than they did against Nickels State. So I

787
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 3: don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

788
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 3: Jack Turner is terrible. He's completing fifty two percent of

789
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 3: his passes. He's horrible. And then you know, Marquis Crosby's

790
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 3: probably the best player, but he's been playing through injury.

791
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 3: He's they've already said he's not going to be one

792
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 3: hundred percent this week. It's something he's going to continue

793
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 3: to deal with. He's got just forty eight yards in

794
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 3: two games. They're out doing two point three yards per

795
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 3: pary as a team one hundred and twenty in the

796
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 3: nation just barely had a Florida state. So at least

797
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,879
Speaker 3: they went ahead and top to the knolls in that category. Yeah,

798
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 3: I'm with you. I think like powered, We're not powering

799
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:48,919
Speaker 3: these guys, but like he could be an argument Tulsa

800
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 3: is a better team, and if not, they're certainly right

801
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 3: there in the conversation. And yeah, I've been surprisingly I

802
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 3: mean pleases as hard works. I'm sure we're gonna shot

803
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 3: on Tulsa all throughout conference play. They're not as bad

804
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:03,720
Speaker 3: as I thought they were going to be in Latex,

805
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 3: just as bad as we all thought they were going

806
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 3: to be. So yeah, gimme Tulsa.

807
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 2: I like this play all right for Mike Guyanello on

808
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 2: Mike Calabreys, this has been the group of five Deep

809
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 2: Dive under the Big Bets on Campus banner. A reminder

810
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 2: that's Stuck and Colin will be back with the full

811
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 2: slates of everything week four in the world of college football.

812
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 2: You know, ninety minutes deep Dive in taking you through

813
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 2: every single marquee matchup, diving through the trash, giving you

814
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 2: their round robins, all those different things that they do

815
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 2: on a weekly basis, all leading into the Saturday Live

816
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 2: show with Brett McMurphy, Collins, Stuck and myself as well

817
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,720
Speaker 2: as Johnny Manzel doing a couple of video on demand

818
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 2: picks there. So make sure to check that out over

819
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 2: on our BBOC channel, which is it will not be

820
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,839
Speaker 2: airing on the Action Network in terms of the YouTube channel,

821
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 2: so make sure to subscribe BBOC subscribe like and also

822
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,720
Speaker 2: a reminder there's been some activity on the Apple reviews.

823
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,919
Speaker 2: Those five stars are incredibly helpful and I've been given

824
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 2: out ten dollars parlays. So if you want to be

825
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 2: a part of that, throw us a five star review.

826
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:03,359
Speaker 2: I don't really care what you say, just make sure

827
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 2: it has those five stars associated with it and hit

828
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: me up over on Twitter at E S Freeze EA

829
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 2: st b R E S E and I'll make sure

830
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 2: to punch in a ten dollars parlay if your choosing.

831
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 2: All right, that's it for us. Enjoy another college football Saturday.

832
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 2: They are starting to heat up a little bit, and

833
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 2: as soon as we get out of the non con

834
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 2: that's when these group of five teams can really start

835
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 2: flexing their muscles a little bit. One more week of

836
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 2: this and then we'll be into the traditional conference play. Thanks,

837
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 2: we'll stay guys.

838
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,359
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

839
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

840
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

841
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 2: hundred gambler