00:00:02 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 00:00:27 Speaker 2: Joining us now in Charge of Cats and Dogs. You're a Bloomberg Surveillance, a new century Advisors. Claudia sum Claudia, I gotta give you a victory lap here. Eighteen months ago people were calling and citing your profound research on recession, and you said, no, what did the gloom crew get wrong? 00:00:49 Speaker 3: The gloom crew got wrong? What was happening in the labor force, the supply of workers back when I said those increase in unemployment or be careful with that. We've got a lot of immigration, we've got a lot of work, and some of that increase is good, not bad, like with a recession coming. I worry some of the you know, really exuberant crew right now maybe getting it wrong in the other direction because the labor force has not been growing as quickly. So the signals, like with payroll gains, I think they're good. I don't want to undercut the good, but they're not great. I think that we're just moving around with the labor force. We've got to be really careful at a time like that when labor supply is so fluid. 00:01:26 Speaker 2: Always respectful, as the academic from Michigan would be. But nevertheless, the message is there on our newly minted chairman. Is he ignoring as we saw in century yesterday? Is he ignoring the employment mandate at the expense of total focus on supply side driven inflation? 00:01:49 Speaker 3: At this moment, having a focus on inflation makes a lot of sense. It is the it is the problem. I think we could say the labor markets probably pretty close to where the FEDS maximum employment mandate is. I'm uncomfortable about the silence. I'd like to hear the chair say that and not just nothing about the labor mark or very sparse on the labor mark. He had one word for it yesterday, steady. That was it. I think it deserves more than that, even if it's in pretty good shape and doesn't require action. 00:02:22 Speaker 2: One of the great miracles is Paul Sweeney's families. Employment is employment of the offspring this summer, Paul, is it steady, It's steady, It's steady. 00:02:31 Speaker 4: I can report wages here, Claudia, there was a time when we get three and a half percent average hourly earnings year of a year and say. 00:02:40 Speaker 2: That's pretty good. 00:02:41 Speaker 4: But not in today's inflationary environment. How do you think about the wages out there? 00:02:47 Speaker 2: Right? 00:02:47 Speaker 3: So, on average wages are not keeping up with inflation right now. Now that comes in large part because we've seen a surge in inflation this year, right and there's already signs with oil prices coming down that we are probably at the high water mark on in flat But it does show how much that context on inflation really matters for how far paychecks go. And I think the other thing to really keep looking at these wage data is we get them. We don't see signs of overheating. We don't see signs of labor shortages, wages picking up in a way that they could be creating even more cost more inflation, and that's something that the Feed is keeping a really careful eye on. That is not a problem we have right now. 00:03:24 Speaker 4: Talk to us about just inflation in general. How sticky is it in your mind? 00:03:31 Speaker 3: There is a piece of inflation that has been quite persistent, not just this year, over the last years. When I say it's something probably like in a half a percentage range, I mean we're not talking about like right now, inflation is running at four percent. A lot of that is temporary. It's tied to energy, it's tied to tariffs. These things are rolling off. I mean something else could come along, but I mean those things are rolling off. But I think if you look at the data from lots of different directions, there's still about a half a percentage point a lot of it tied back to some of the service inflation categories that it is just harder to see how that gets chipped away. 00:04:08 Speaker 2: Let's do this. Let's come back with Claudia Sam here, Christina Katmann and Kathain Kaminski coming up as well. But right now doctor Sam with us. As we go we report on the American labor economy. We are going to extend our discussion with doctor Sam after seeing this jaw dropping report. Peter Sheer looks like a genius right now with us. An hour ago, futures explode up twenty three down, features up one hundred and sixty four, the nastick up half a percent, and the VIX comes into a new low sixteen point one four, we're going to get a fifteen vix here in a moment over on a swingy front, the two year yield comes in all of a sudden rate increases. What do you think, Paul, It. 00:04:48 Speaker 4: Feels like they pushed out a little bit here, a little bit. A two year comes in about four and a half basis points four point one two percent. 00:04:54 Speaker 2: Looking at the data here, we're going to give doctor some time to digest it, as she does claims we're steady here on a compressed Thursday Friday wall of data, continuing claims are depressed as well. Hourly earnings on target. The unemployment rate, as John Tucker said, and all that complex math improves from four point three to four point two percent. But it is the revisions that's what I want to focus with doctor some on. We are thrilled from New Century. Claudia Sam is with us for this important report again. Futures up twenty three, Claudia, there's nonfunt payrolls, and there's two month net revision, which gives me a negative statistic, and then we have six months or every year other adjustments. We continue to overguess our labor enthusiasm. Does it surprise you to see a two month net revision that's negative. 00:05:56 Speaker 3: I wouldn't say it's surprising. I mean, you know, revisions are a natural part of the process. We want to get a snapshot on the US economy as quickly as possible with over one hundred and fifty million workers and tens of millions of businesses like you don't do that in two weeks on the first try. So the revisions are part of the process getting a clearer and clearer picture. So I you know, I kind of push back on that. There's a you know, the system's broken, We're always going to get these kind of revisions. We've seen some upward revisions recently too, so you know, I think there were some things maybe that we're a little puzzling in, say last month's datus, you know, big jump and government employment and so like things. It takes some time to work out the numbers, so I wouldn't I wouldn't take too much from it. It just all this underscores. Again, don't get too hung up on the latest number. Look at averages, look under the hood. I think that's a consistent right. 00:06:45 Speaker 2: Non farm payrolls was one hundred and eighty eight thousand three months moving average, that comes down almost twenty hundreds and sixty four, So that drops down the three months moving average, and the new three months moving average is one hundred in eleven thousand, and that'll adjust doctor some Is that politically acceptable in America to have a ninety day moving average of one hundred and eleven thousand. 00:07:12 Speaker 3: What really matters is that the people out there who are looking for jobs can get jobs, and they're good jobs, right, So the payrolls are kind of a tricky way to read that, just because we can have changes in how many people are out there looking for jobs, I still feel like the unemployment rate is a better place to start that conversation than the payroll numbers, though, of course, I mean the difference is matter like it matters to people. Even if you're in the four point four point three four point two percent, isn't a lot of unemployed, But if you're one of those, it's a big deal, right, So you're gonna and that may affect your vote. So, but I think payrolls is a tough one. And I will say even with the number the three month moving average of PAILS being revised down, that's still well above what estimates were what we think the labor force is growing at, so that could still be a good number. 00:07:59 Speaker 2: I'm just you know, Claudia is so young, and you swing here, you know, you're just a kid, and the answer is one hundred and eleven thousand is Unamerican. We're supposed to be vibrant at one fifteen, two hundred, two hundred and ten, and those days are just evaporated. 00:08:15 Speaker 4: Claudia, how do you think our new FED chairman and the Federal Reserve is going to view this, this data point. 00:08:23 Speaker 3: This today's report is going to keep their focus squarely on inflation. So there, I mean, you know, what you're looking for are red flags, downside risks, and this this doesn't show signs. But I think the one place that I find somewhat disconcerting is you know, the unplanted rate did tick down to four point two percent, but it came with a three tenths decline in the labor force participation rate. And so that's you know, people can retire, people can like go, and you know the changes that's not a thing that FED gets involved with, but that that does give me a little bit of concern just about the again, the structure of LaForce. The workforce is out there, so I think they'll keep a watch fly on this. But this I don't see red flags in this in terms of them turning attention into problems in the labor market. 00:09:07 Speaker 2: We welcome all of you across America for this American labor economy. A shock report here. Future is up twenty one, up twenty five now, futures explode up thirty two down, features up well over two hundred points. The Nasdack puts it out up two tenths of a percent. Is now excuse me? I checked that up two tenths of a percent. Now up seven tenths of a percent in the Nasdack at one hundred the Vics. I've got a fifteen handle on the Vics. Fifteen point nine to eight plunging. Now, that'll go through the July one nirvana that we saw the other day, Paul Sweeney. But doctor Claudia, sound. 00:09:44 Speaker 4: Claudia, we've seen a real dramatic decline in immigration into this country. Helps that impact kind of the supply side of the labor market these days. 00:09:57 Speaker 2: Right well, with. 00:09:58 Speaker 3: Industries that have, you know, rely a lot on immigrant workforce that can cause labor shortages. We haven't seen that kind of at an aggregate level. I think you can point to some industries where you can see some tensions and even showing up. It could be part of the contribution to you know, construction wages rising faster than overall, but there are other reasons construction wives to be rising faster. Is a lot of demand for AI build out, so it's hard to like pull it out in the aggregate statistics, but I think there are hints of it in the industry level. And then you know this, this can get a little complicated in terms of the measurement and the data. People need to be willing to participate in government surveys so we can understand their employment. I do worry that kind of the crack down immigration may be impairing the statistics some as well. 00:10:46 Speaker 2: So what will the FED do? I got eight ways to go here, Claudy in the time we've got left, called Kathy Kominski on hold right now. We'll get to her in a moment. Perfect time to talk to Katherine Kominski about the quant view on the market. There's some the FED yere. I guess we've got a belief and I'll call it collegial descent. We need to raise rates. A major Wall Street shop looks for three rate increases, et cetera. How abrupt over this holiday weekend will be the market economic shift given this report relating to FED meetings for the rest of the year. 00:11:25 Speaker 3: I don't think markets should react much to this report. I mean, we have a FED that has committed to delivering price stability, which is getting inflation back to two percent over some period of time. What's it going to take to get it back to two percent? And there is disagreement among the committee about what it's going to take, and today's data does not settle that argument at all. We're just going to need a lot more information. So have a nice weekend. 00:11:52 Speaker 4: There we go. 00:11:53 Speaker 2: Let's believe it at that. How's the cat doing that? The cats survive? The one year old cat food? You, sir. 00:12:00 Speaker 3: She's right over here looking out the window. Puffy is good too, She's having a good weekend. 00:12:03 Speaker 2: Puffy's having a good weekend. Stay cool, come and collected, Puffy. Claudia sum We really treasure your work for us and your wisdom for us each and every Jobstay can't say enough about it. With New Century Advisors, futures up twenty eight right now down futures up two hundred and six, and NASDAC puts it on up six tons of a percent. It's ebbing, it's Friday. I think people are like halfway out the door. Oh, I think you're right. You think there's a you know. One of the great things here, folks, is the invention of the Bloomberg terminal at a cattage. Yep. It sits there like a hood ornament, and it's used like once a year, Jobs Day exactly in July. And of course the Bloomberg mobile app helps fantastic excuse me as well. So I'm lost. What are we doing here? Let's go to Katie commitsky oh, Keaty commits with this, probably with she went to mit. You know, she is er conditioning exactly. 00:13:02 Speaker 4: Katie Kaminski joins us here, chief research strategists at Alpha Simplex. Here Katie million ways to go here, Tom and I. Earlier this morning, we're talking about the US dollar and the strength of the dollar. What are you seeing out there? It's weaker today, but what do you see out there in terms of just trends in the currency markets. 00:13:21 Speaker 5: This is a good point. 00:13:22 Speaker 6: We did actually see the dollar strengthen a lot over the last month. That was particularly interesting specifically for commodities. I think that also helped kind of cause some reversal in the commodity trends as well, because it makes commodities more expensive when the dollar rallies like that, we are seeing the opposite move today. My view is this is much more of a call on the labor market data and this idea that you know, this puts a little bit of less pressure on the FED to try and deal with inflation if the labor market could be a secondary focus. 00:13:54 Speaker 5: So from my side, we have seen pot long dollar trends building. 00:13:58 Speaker 2: Christian Ecamp menu to be with here in a bit, and that Veronica Clerk will join us from City Group. They nailed the jobs report this morning. She's like work from Cottage. Yeah, okay, I think Veronica is like, you know, she's in the Hampton's somewhere, you know, Kathy, I look at this and if I can talk about your trend expertise, Microsoft is a busted trend. What do you do with Microsoft when it blows to resistance like that or support? 00:14:26 Speaker 6: Well, I think that the challenge is always about balancing the strength of the trend with sort of the frequency of outliers. So when we see trends that are extreme, oftentimes there's not enough data to determine whether or not that trend will continue. Trend as a strategy works much better in the middle of the distribution, so when you're going through sort of a thematic trend, but not when you're sort of at the extrema. 00:14:52 Speaker 4: So where are you seeing from your trend perspective, Katie, Where are you guys seeing opportunities in the marketplace these days? 00:15:01 Speaker 6: Well, this is a good question because we had pretty strong trends going into the month of June and we saw you know, clearly energy has been a big theme that unraveled. The long equity trades have been working, but rotating fixed income has been a short view that has abated some with some of the de escalation. And I think the one trend that seems to be emerging that was newer was the long dollar trend and this idea that the relative positioning of the US dollar could cause it to come back after it's really struggled quite a bit. 00:15:34 Speaker 2: What is a trend structure of the equity market right now? Can you say there's a persistency. As somebody mentioned drift earlier. I thought of Candy Kominski. Is there a constructive drift to this bull market? 00:15:48 Speaker 6: There definitely has been, but it is really differential depending on which asset you've seen. And so for example, the relative positioning of the Dow Jones versus say NAT stack has actually reverted some. So we've seen sort of more that. 00:16:04 Speaker 5: Pivot recently in equities. 00:16:05 Speaker 6: So overall, the strength of trends are relatively strong, not at high high levels, but you are seeing some sort of rotation amongst trend signals in terms of which assets are. 00:16:18 Speaker 3: Leading the pack. 00:16:19 Speaker 4: Equities continue to move higher. John Tucker and his reports tells us new time highs, all time highs pretty much every day. What's your equity call here? 00:16:29 Speaker 6: So equities, because of the volatility that we've seen, is sort of a moderate bullish signal. I'd say that you've seen sort of it's not all systems go by any means, and that's because you've seen a lot of hesitation in the price action you've seen. But why you continue to be long equities is because there's always seems to be buying pressure when you have that reversal. But these reversals are happening, so it's not sort of an all systems go trend. It's definitely you know, proceed with caution. 00:17:00 Speaker 2: But still long, Katie, we're gonna have to run here because we've got to follow the immediate market. Here. Do you have a trend on gold? Asking for John Tucker? I mean gold, is gold a busted trade? Like Microsoft's a busted trade? 00:17:17 Speaker 6: Well, gold has been, I mean, trying to go short, I'd say so. I mean, i'd say that if you call it a busted trade, I'd say it is kind of a busted trade by that definition. 00:17:27 Speaker 5: But who knows it could come back. 00:17:29 Speaker 6: Well, we'll see. It was just so huge last year, so it deserved a little bit of reversal. 00:17:34 Speaker 2: Katie, perfect, Thank you so much. Katherin Kaminski, were this Alpha simplex as well? I got a motion on Katherine Camp and you know she's in studio today. I know I had no idea. That's because the the Invesco helicopter could land on top of the towers say out to the Hey, let's do this from the Interactive Broker studios. Hey, job's day, Bloomberg business Flash, John Tucker. 00:17:55 Speaker 7: Oh, the market reaction, so we're less rape hikey uh slower than anticipate hit an increase in jobs driving stocks higher. Bond yields are falling. The two year seven basis points lower four to ten, the ten year yield two basis points lower at four forty five, down futures two hundred and sixty two, of the S and P futures up twenty eight, and the NASDEK futures right now one hundred and sixty two. So weak of an expended payrolls report, especially with the downward revisions last month, crossing kind of a knee jerk bowl steepening of the yield curve at this point. And also interesting note dollar dollar DXY down eight tenths of eight percent. And we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm John Tucker. That is your Bloomberg Business Flash pall on, Tom. 00:18:44 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, John Tucker. Futures up twenty seven right now, there's a persistency to it. Li've ebbed away a bit. The VIC sixteen point zero zero. Christina cap Many with us, and we thank her for really coming into the studio today on this odd day. She's going to add, you know, work from home, Yeah, whatever, but she's here. Does this job's report change Kevin Worsh's world? Do you look at Claudia Sama's making clear this is not a shift report, she's as a boring economist, but you're in the trenches. Does this change the debate? 00:19:17 Speaker 3: I don't think so. I think she's right. 00:19:20 Speaker 8: I think the big question here is we're all trying to figure out what Worsh's messaging is, what he's trying to accomplish. I think he's also trying to figure out how he wants to communicate to the market. It seems clear that he has come out and is speaking very aggressively on the inflation front. Now is that I'm going to talk very strongly and it buys me time and I don't have to do anything, or like I'm ready to shock and all. 00:19:44 Speaker 3: We don't know that yet. 00:19:46 Speaker 2: But I think we do live in a. 00:19:47 Speaker 8: Different world that we can go into meetings price fifty to fifty or like, I don't think we live in the same world that we're going to go into a FED meeting at either zero or twenty five and we've been guided handheld. And he spoke to that in century yesterday too, of during the financial crisis, we had to handhold the market, like that's not the environment anymore. 00:20:09 Speaker 3: So I think that they're more focused there. 00:20:10 Speaker 8: And the labor market has proved to all of us in the last six months that it is more resilient even with today's number. 00:20:17 Speaker 4: So where do you guys, and you guys are global in view, where do you see the best opportunities in fixing PILM? 00:20:22 Speaker 8: I think so, I think two things to your point of like we're sitting in the seats and it is versus an economist. It is a more tactical market, and I think we're in this kind of rangy market. So we are a bit more active than I think we have we had been. And then where do we see opportunities? I think if I look at fixed income, the US still to me looks rich and we don't have term premium built in. And I appreciate that we have this like very aggressive speak, but I don't know, the curve is too flat. I don't want to own the long end in the US. And then I think it makes the rest of the world more interesting. Europe offers value. We've gotten one hike from the ECB perhaps we'll get another and I think that that's it, Okay, Morris Price like so Europe, UK, Australia. I think there's other places that are. 00:21:13 Speaker 2: Because this is really important because there it's Centro and everybody's happy, happy, happy. I was going nuts. I wanted to ask them brutal questions. The fact is the UK is a coupon, like no, it's like a dream. How does a shop like you handle a ten year guilt or you know, I'm making this up a voted phone piece of twenty years. 00:21:35 Speaker 8: So I think it's weighing and it goes back to the basics of all investments like risk and return right, And I think the UK it definitely offers value, and we own some in the front end and some in I think both pieces offer value because I don't think the BOE delivers. So the front end is interesting, and I think the very long end because you've had changes in the supply dynamics and all of those, and we think that the government even with the change, if you get Burnham and we'll kind of drive it down the middle and we'll be contained with what's priced. But it is a less liquid market, it is more volatile. I think we have to kind of take that into account when we think about sizing a position, and right like, it's a different market to trade. 00:22:16 Speaker 4: You say you're underweight credit. Does that mean you didn't buy the SpaceX, you didn't buy all the AI bonds that were issued. 00:22:23 Speaker 8: We haven't as much. And I think we think about credit as it's the jump risk product within fixed income, and I think people don't kind of give it that credence. And again, I grew up in a rates background and look at broad fixed income, so I always like, I don't the all in yield comment. I understand that investors do behave that way, but for us, spreads are tight, and we think that there's kind of better ways that we can piece meal things together. So we do own credit. We're in the front end, but I think we're a bit more cautious there with how tight it is. 00:22:57 Speaker 2: I have to ask this missus. K emails in and she's going around my cane after Harry Kane. Sure, and that's replace me on the doorknob outside the kitchen, sort of towards the west wing. She's got the nixt merch going on, and she says, you have to ask Christine because she sees my notes. I'm up at two am for the show. Missus. Keane wants to know. Were you in class with Jalen at Villanova? 00:23:23 Speaker 8: I'm a little older, but we do love our Nova Nicks at home. 00:23:28 Speaker 2: Wow, was he like on campus when you were there? You were a senior and he was a freshman or something like that. 00:23:33 Speaker 8: No, they won their first championship in sixteen, two days before I had my first my first daughter, which was who was very early and home. Of course you had your baby so early, you were out until midnight watching that Villanova game. Like these are important moments, mom, But it's a it's a proud time for Villanova community for sure, and they're like very good quality, good human beings, which I think has shows across who is. 00:24:03 Speaker 3: Jalen camsh just. 00:24:05 Speaker 2: Want to get Christina, thank you so much for your commitment towards jobs. They really really appreciate it. Christina Campmeny as the most nicked merch at Invesco, and we thank her for coming in. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:24:29 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch US live on YouTube. 00:24:41 Speaker 2: Joining us now too short of visit Margie Patel Johns's definitive and iconic on generating monthly and quarterly income. Margie It's dividends and dividend girls still good ample competition to interest and yield. 00:24:58 Speaker 9: Definitely, because I've incorporate earnings are going to continue to be strong. They surprised on the upside from several quarters now even with relatively modest GDP growth. So I think stocks are going to at stocks, especially dividend stocks, will continue to outperform fixed income alternatives. 00:25:15 Speaker 2: Like what category, what sector it gives you the best opportunity? Do software stocks pay dividends now? 00:25:24 Speaker 9: I think I prefer the more of the secular growth on the hardware side in tech rather than the software. I think there you can see a clearer path for high growth for a number of years, and I think, really we're not going to see earnings broadened out only those companies and sectors that have above average cyclical growth. So I think industrial companies, aerospace and defense related to the electrical geared, and of course technology will continue to perform other parts of the economy, which I think will be more flatish and have rather modest growth in earnings. 00:25:58 Speaker 5: Margie. 00:25:59 Speaker 4: One of the sectors that historically has been well received by the market that's sell on hard times is kind of software in general, but specifically software as a service, as the market tries to, you know, kind of dice out AIS as a competitor here. How do you think about software? 00:26:16 Speaker 5: Well, I think that there again, you have a broad range of companies. 00:26:20 Speaker 9: I think the ones the market leaders, you know, say Microsoft, I'll throw in there is probably the best position with a balanced business profile. But we think that the growth will be more modest than a lot of people are thinking. We don't think we're going to see a huge balance back comparable with what we've seen in some of the other text talks. 00:26:40 Speaker 2: Margie, what do you say to the gloom crew? I mean, you remember when the Red Sox won five games in a row. I mean, she remembers Frank mail Zone. Oh, she goes back that far, Margie, what do you say to the gloom crew that's been wrong for twenty years? 00:27:00 Speaker 5: Say that again? 00:27:00 Speaker 2: Tom, what do you say to the gloom crew that's been wrong for two decades. 00:27:06 Speaker 5: Oh yes, yes, it gives me time to think. I think they're still wrong. 00:27:10 Speaker 9: I think people have been expecting a return to the cyclicality where the FED slams on the brakes, floods the system with money, and it just hasn't happened. 00:27:19 Speaker 5: Corporate earnings have been very, very strong. 00:27:22 Speaker 9: In fact, we've seen no sign whatsoever that with inflation being above the fence targets, the profit margins are squeezing. So I think that that's much more important our companies maintaining profit margins increasing prices, because that's what the high inflation is saying to me, that they have the ability to raise prices. And I think the fit is as Warsh is doing is pretty much on the sidelines as far as thinking that a quarter point movement in rates will have some effect on the whole economy. 00:27:49 Speaker 2: Margie, thank you so much, breaking news. You got to run too, but really really appreciate it. Always legendary out of Boston, Margie Patel joins us, so we greatly appreciate her efforts. Today, stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:28:13 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 00:28:25 Speaker 2: Paul and I really make a commitment to talk outside the normal bounds out of Simmons and b Leah Tanagucci is with Bullhorn, which is a whole different shop. Let's start with that. What's Bullhorn's not? JP Morgan? What is Bullhorn? 00:28:39 Speaker 10: Bullhorn is a software company. We produce the staffing and recruitment industry software for about ten thousand customers. So what we do is we create the software that helps place people looking for jobs with recruiters and match them. 00:28:54 Speaker 2: You are an absolute cross heres of job replacement with artificial intelligence one hundred Your opinion of where that's going to be in a year or five years. 00:29:05 Speaker 5: I have a. 00:29:05 Speaker 10: Slightly unpopular opinion. I don't have the same doomsday predictions as everyone else that we're going to see fifty percent reduction in jobs. I think we'll probably see five six percent reduction in jobs because they've been replaced by AI. But what I actually think we're going to see even more is a change in the nature of work. I think every single one of us is going to see twenty thirty percent of our job potentially even more be shifted to doing more of this hybrid human agentic work. I know, I see it all the time. I use AI every single day, and I don't think it's put me out. 00:29:39 Speaker 9: Of a job. 00:29:39 Speaker 2: Yet. 00:29:40 Speaker 10: It still needs me to ask the question, interpret the results, and tell it what to look at next. But it is changing the pace and nature of what I do all the time. 00:29:49 Speaker 4: What are employers looking for these days? 00:29:53 Speaker 10: One of the things that's really interesting is part of our work is that we track job openings across millions of US jobs sites, and that means we are tracking not only the roles that are being placed, but also the skills that they're looking for. Ironically, we run it through an LM that helps us make sense of what those skills are. And what we've really seen lately over the last year is a huge increase and a desire for flexible thinking, critical and analytical thinking skills, decision making, leadership, collaboration, people who can work in really complex environments, respond to and pivot according to really rapidly changing market and business data. But we're not seeing as many job descriptions looking for some of those old school fundamental soft skills like communication and writing. They're looking for things that are really so higher order skills. And as a proud Liberal Arts graduate, to me, this says, this is the biggest endorsement I've seen in a decade for liberal arts education. They want people who can think and who can work with technology wherever it goes, largely because employers don't know what work's going to look like in twelve months. They're not sure quired for. 00:31:05 Speaker 2: The Detroit Lions blue button. The number one thing I get from family and friends is just what you said, we don't know. I mean again, you're in the trend. I think of concentrics in the Philippines one hundred and twenty thousand people, and the gloom is it's all going to go away. We're all going to die in call centers and all that. The answers, we just don't know. That's the fundamental issue, right, we don't know. 00:31:31 Speaker 10: But I'm an ai optimist. I think that what it's going to do is shift work the same way this happened when you know the horse and buggy went away. When this is you know, I'm old enough to remember when the Internet started and people said, oh no, it's going to nobody's going to know how to think anymore. Everyone's just going to rely on it to spit out all of the answers. And that's not what happened. It became a tool, and it made some of the human input even more important. And I think if we manage this right as assiet, that's the same place we're gonna get to. That being said, I'm not gonna tell you it's gonna be without pain. 00:32:06 Speaker 2: Lea, we gotta go, got tons of breaking dude. I thought this was a quiet nothing not happening. Please don't be a stranger. Leah Tanagucci with us with Bullhorn. 00:32:14 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal