1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 2: Joining us now in Charge of Cats and Dogs. You're 7 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 2: a Bloomberg Surveillance, a new century Advisors. Claudia sum Claudia, 8 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 2: I gotta give you a victory lap here. Eighteen months 9 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: ago people were calling and citing your profound research on recession, 10 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 2: and you said, no, what did the gloom crew get wrong? 11 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 3: The gloom crew got wrong? What was happening in the 12 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 3: labor force, the supply of workers back when I said 13 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 3: those increase in unemployment or be careful with that. We've 14 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 3: got a lot of immigration, we've got a lot of work, 15 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 3: and some of that increase is good, not bad, like 16 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 3: with a recession coming. I worry some of the you know, 17 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 3: really exuberant crew right now maybe getting it wrong in 18 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 3: the other direction because the labor force has not been 19 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,279 Speaker 3: growing as quickly. So the signals, like with payroll gains, 20 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 3: I think they're good. I don't want to undercut the good, 21 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 3: but they're not great. I think that we're just moving 22 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 3: around with the labor force. We've got to be really 23 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 3: careful at a time like that when labor supply is 24 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 3: so fluid. 25 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 2: Always respectful, as the academic from Michigan would be. But nevertheless, 26 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 2: the message is there on our newly minted chairman. Is 27 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 2: he ignoring as we saw in century yesterday? Is he 28 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: ignoring the employment mandate at the expense of total focus 29 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 2: on supply side driven inflation? 30 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 3: At this moment, having a focus on inflation makes a 31 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 3: lot of sense. It is the it is the problem. 32 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 3: I think we could say the labor markets probably pretty 33 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 3: close to where the FEDS maximum employment mandate is. I'm 34 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 3: uncomfortable about the silence. I'd like to hear the chair 35 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:12,239 Speaker 3: say that and not just nothing about the labor mark 36 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 3: or very sparse on the labor mark. He had one 37 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 3: word for it yesterday, steady. That was it. I think 38 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 3: it deserves more than that, even if it's in pretty 39 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 3: good shape and doesn't require action. 40 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 2: One of the great miracles is Paul Sweeney's families. Employment 41 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 2: is employment of the offspring this summer, Paul, is it steady, 42 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 2: It's steady, It's steady. 43 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,639 Speaker 4: I can report wages here, Claudia, there was a time 44 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 4: when we get three and a half percent average hourly 45 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 4: earnings year of a year and say. 46 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 2: That's pretty good. 47 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 4: But not in today's inflationary environment. How do you think 48 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 4: about the wages out there? 49 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 2: Right? 50 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 3: So, on average wages are not keeping up with inflation 51 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 3: right now. Now that comes in large part because we've 52 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,119 Speaker 3: seen a surge in inflation this year, right and there's 53 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 3: already signs with oil prices coming down that we are 54 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 3: probably at the high water mark on in flat But 55 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 3: it does show how much that context on inflation really 56 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 3: matters for how far paychecks go. And I think the 57 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 3: other thing to really keep looking at these wage data 58 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 3: is we get them. We don't see signs of overheating. 59 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 3: We don't see signs of labor shortages, wages picking up 60 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 3: in a way that they could be creating even more 61 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,079 Speaker 3: cost more inflation, and that's something that the Feed is 62 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 3: keeping a really careful eye on. That is not a 63 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 3: problem we have right now. 64 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 4: Talk to us about just inflation in general. How sticky 65 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 4: is it in your mind? 66 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 3: There is a piece of inflation that has been quite persistent, 67 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 3: not just this year, over the last years. When I 68 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 3: say it's something probably like in a half a percentage range, 69 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 3: I mean we're not talking about like right now, inflation 70 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 3: is running at four percent. A lot of that is temporary. 71 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: It's tied to energy, it's tied to tariffs. These things 72 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 3: are rolling off. I mean something else could come along, 73 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 3: but I mean those things are rolling off. But I 74 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 3: think if you look at the data from lots of 75 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 3: different directions, there's still about a half a percentage point 76 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 3: a lot of it tied back to some of the 77 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 3: service inflation categories that it is just harder to see 78 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 3: how that gets chipped away. 79 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 2: Let's do this. Let's come back with Claudia Sam here, 80 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 2: Christina Katmann and Kathain Kaminski coming up as well. But 81 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 2: right now doctor Sam with us. As we go we 82 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 2: report on the American labor economy. We are going to 83 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 2: extend our discussion with doctor Sam after seeing this jaw 84 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 2: dropping report. Peter Sheer looks like a genius right now 85 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 2: with us. An hour ago, futures explode up twenty three down, 86 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 2: features up one hundred and sixty four, the nastick up 87 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 2: half a percent, and the VIX comes into a new 88 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 2: low sixteen point one four, we're going to get a 89 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: fifteen vix here in a moment over on a swingy front, 90 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,799 Speaker 2: the two year yield comes in all of a sudden 91 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 2: rate increases. What do you think, Paul, It. 92 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 4: Feels like they pushed out a little bit here, a 93 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 4: little bit. A two year comes in about four and 94 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 4: a half basis points four point one two percent. 95 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 2: Looking at the data here, we're going to give doctor 96 00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 2: some time to digest it, as she does claims we're 97 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:04,119 Speaker 2: steady here on a compressed Thursday Friday wall of data, 98 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 2: continuing claims are depressed as well. Hourly earnings on target. 99 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 2: The unemployment rate, as John Tucker said, and all that 100 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 2: complex math improves from four point three to four point 101 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 2: two percent. But it is the revisions that's what I 102 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 2: want to focus with doctor some on. We are thrilled 103 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 2: from New Century. Claudia Sam is with us for this 104 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 2: important report again. Futures up twenty three, Claudia, there's nonfunt payrolls, 105 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 2: and there's two month net revision, which gives me a 106 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 2: negative statistic, and then we have six months or every 107 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 2: year other adjustments. We continue to overguess our labor enthusiasm. 108 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 2: Does it surprise you to see a two month net 109 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 2: revision that's negative. 110 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 3: I wouldn't say it's surprising. I mean, you know, revisions 111 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 3: are a natural part of the process. We want to 112 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 3: get a snapshot on the US economy as quickly as 113 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 3: possible with over one hundred and fifty million workers and 114 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 3: tens of millions of businesses like you don't do that 115 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 3: in two weeks on the first try. So the revisions 116 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 3: are part of the process getting a clearer and clearer picture. 117 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 3: So I you know, I kind of push back on that. 118 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 3: There's a you know, the system's broken, We're always going 119 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 3: to get these kind of revisions. We've seen some upward 120 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 3: revisions recently too, so you know, I think there were 121 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 3: some things maybe that we're a little puzzling in, say 122 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 3: last month's datus, you know, big jump and government employment 123 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 3: and so like things. It takes some time to work 124 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 3: out the numbers, so I wouldn't I wouldn't take too 125 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 3: much from it. It just all this underscores. Again, don't 126 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 3: get too hung up on the latest number. Look at averages, 127 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 3: look under the hood. I think that's a consistent right. 128 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 2: Non farm payrolls was one hundred and eighty eight thousand 129 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 2: three months moving average, that comes down almost twenty hundreds 130 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 2: and sixty four, So that drops down the three months 131 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 2: moving average, and the new three months moving average is 132 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 2: one hundred in eleven thousand, and that'll adjust doctor some 133 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 2: Is that politically acceptable in America to have a ninety 134 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 2: day moving average of one hundred and eleven thousand. 135 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 3: What really matters is that the people out there who 136 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 3: are looking for jobs can get jobs, and they're good jobs, right, 137 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 3: So the payrolls are kind of a tricky way to 138 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 3: read that, just because we can have changes in how 139 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 3: many people are out there looking for jobs, I still 140 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 3: feel like the unemployment rate is a better place to 141 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 3: start that conversation than the payroll numbers, though, of course, 142 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 3: I mean the difference is matter like it matters to people. 143 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 3: Even if you're in the four point four point three 144 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 3: four point two percent, isn't a lot of unemployed, But 145 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 3: if you're one of those, it's a big deal, right, 146 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 3: So you're gonna and that may affect your vote. So, 147 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 3: but I think payrolls is a tough one. And I 148 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 3: will say even with the number the three month moving 149 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 3: average of PAILS being revised down, that's still well above 150 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 3: what estimates were what we think the labor force is 151 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 3: growing at, so that could still be a good number. 152 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 2: I'm just you know, Claudia is so young, and you 153 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 2: swing here, you know, you're just a kid, and the 154 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 2: answer is one hundred and eleven thousand is Unamerican. We're 155 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 2: supposed to be vibrant at one fifteen, two hundred, two 156 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 2: hundred and ten, and those days are just evaporated. 157 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 4: Claudia, how do you think our new FED chairman and 158 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 4: the Federal Reserve is going to view this, this data point. 159 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 3: This today's report is going to keep their focus squarely 160 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 3: on inflation. So there, I mean, you know, what you're 161 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 3: looking for are red flags, downside risks, and this this 162 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 3: doesn't show signs. But I think the one place that 163 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 3: I find somewhat disconcerting is you know, the unplanted rate 164 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,719 Speaker 3: did tick down to four point two percent, but it 165 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 3: came with a three tenths decline in the labor force 166 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 3: participation rate. And so that's you know, people can retire, 167 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 3: people can like go, and you know the changes that's 168 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 3: not a thing that FED gets involved with, but that 169 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,319 Speaker 3: that does give me a little bit of concern just 170 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 3: about the again, the structure of LaForce. The workforce is 171 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 3: out there, so I think they'll keep a watch fly 172 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 3: on this. But this I don't see red flags in 173 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 3: this in terms of them turning attention into problems in 174 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 3: the labor market. 175 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 2: We welcome all of you across America for this American 176 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 2: labor economy. A shock report here. Future is up twenty one, 177 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 2: up twenty five now, futures explode up thirty two down, 178 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 2: features up well over two hundred points. The Nasdack puts 179 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:23,959 Speaker 2: it out up two tenths of a percent. Is now 180 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 2: excuse me? I checked that up two tenths of a percent. 181 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 2: Now up seven tenths of a percent in the Nasdack 182 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 2: at one hundred the Vics. I've got a fifteen handle 183 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 2: on the Vics. Fifteen point nine to eight plunging. Now, 184 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 2: that'll go through the July one nirvana that we saw 185 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 2: the other day, Paul Sweeney. But doctor Claudia, sound. 186 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 4: Claudia, we've seen a real dramatic decline in immigration into 187 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,560 Speaker 4: this country. Helps that impact kind of the supply side 188 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 4: of the labor market these days. 189 00:09:57,400 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 2: Right well, with. 190 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 3: Industries that have, you know, rely a lot on immigrant 191 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 3: workforce that can cause labor shortages. We haven't seen that 192 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 3: kind of at an aggregate level. I think you can 193 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 3: point to some industries where you can see some tensions 194 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,199 Speaker 3: and even showing up. It could be part of the 195 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 3: contribution to you know, construction wages rising faster than overall, 196 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 3: but there are other reasons construction wives to be rising faster. 197 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 3: Is a lot of demand for AI build out, so 198 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 3: it's hard to like pull it out in the aggregate statistics, 199 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 3: but I think there are hints of it in the 200 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 3: industry level. And then you know this, this can get 201 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 3: a little complicated in terms of the measurement and the data. 202 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 3: People need to be willing to participate in government surveys 203 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,199 Speaker 3: so we can understand their employment. I do worry that 204 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 3: kind of the crack down immigration may be impairing the 205 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 3: statistics some as well. 206 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 2: So what will the FED do? I got eight ways 207 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 2: to go here, Claudy in the time we've got left, 208 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,599 Speaker 2: called Kathy Kominski on hold right now. We'll get to 209 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,960 Speaker 2: her in a moment. Perfect time to talk to Katherine 210 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:00,319 Speaker 2: Kominski about the quant view on the market. There's some 211 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 2: the FED yere. I guess we've got a belief and 212 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 2: I'll call it collegial descent. We need to raise rates. 213 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,199 Speaker 2: A major Wall Street shop looks for three rate increases, 214 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 2: et cetera. How abrupt over this holiday weekend will be 215 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 2: the market economic shift given this report relating to FED 216 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 2: meetings for the rest of the year. 217 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 3: I don't think markets should react much to this report. 218 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,319 Speaker 3: I mean, we have a FED that has committed to 219 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 3: delivering price stability, which is getting inflation back to two 220 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 3: percent over some period of time. What's it going to 221 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 3: take to get it back to two percent? And there 222 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 3: is disagreement among the committee about what it's going to take, 223 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 3: and today's data does not settle that argument at all. 224 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 3: We're just going to need a lot more information. So 225 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 3: have a nice weekend. 226 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:52,839 Speaker 4: There we go. 227 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 2: Let's believe it at that. How's the cat doing that? 228 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 2: The cats survive? The one year old cat food? You, sir. 229 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 3: She's right over here looking out the window. Puffy is 230 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 3: good too, She's having a good weekend. 231 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 2: Puffy's having a good weekend. Stay cool, come and collected, Puffy. 232 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 2: Claudia sum We really treasure your work for us and 233 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:14,079 Speaker 2: your wisdom for us each and every Jobstay can't say 234 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 2: enough about it. With New Century Advisors, futures up twenty 235 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 2: eight right now down futures up two hundred and six, 236 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 2: and NASDAC puts it on up six tons of a percent. 237 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 2: It's ebbing, it's Friday. I think people are like halfway 238 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:29,959 Speaker 2: out the door. Oh, I think you're right. You think 239 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 2: there's a you know. One of the great things here, folks, 240 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 2: is the invention of the Bloomberg terminal at a cattage. Yep. 241 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 2: It sits there like a hood ornament, and it's used 242 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:46,599 Speaker 2: like once a year, Jobs Day exactly in July. And 243 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 2: of course the Bloomberg mobile app helps fantastic excuse me 244 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 2: as well. So I'm lost. What are we doing here? 245 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,599 Speaker 2: Let's go to Katie commitsky oh, Keaty commits with this, 246 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,719 Speaker 2: probably with she went to mit. You know, she is 247 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 2: er conditioning exactly. 248 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 4: Katie Kaminski joins us here, chief research strategists at Alpha Simplex. 249 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 4: Here Katie million ways to go here, Tom and I. 250 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,319 Speaker 4: Earlier this morning, we're talking about the US dollar and 251 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 4: the strength of the dollar. What are you seeing out there? 252 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 4: It's weaker today, but what do you see out there 253 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 4: in terms of just trends in the currency markets. 254 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 5: This is a good point. 255 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 6: We did actually see the dollar strengthen a lot over 256 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 6: the last month. That was particularly interesting specifically for commodities. 257 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 6: I think that also helped kind of cause some reversal 258 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,679 Speaker 6: in the commodity trends as well, because it makes commodities 259 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 6: more expensive when the dollar rallies like that, we are 260 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,439 Speaker 6: seeing the opposite move today. My view is this is 261 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 6: much more of a call on the labor market data 262 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 6: and this idea that you know, this puts a little 263 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 6: bit of less pressure on the FED to try and 264 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 6: deal with inflation if the labor market could be a 265 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 6: secondary focus. 266 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 5: So from my side, we have seen pot long dollar 267 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 5: trends building. 268 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 2: Christian Ecamp menu to be with here in a bit, 269 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 2: and that Veronica Clerk will join us from City Group. 270 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 2: They nailed the jobs report this morning. She's like work 271 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,439 Speaker 2: from Cottage. Yeah, okay, I think Veronica is like, you know, 272 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,719 Speaker 2: she's in the Hampton's somewhere, you know, Kathy, I look 273 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 2: at this and if I can talk about your trend expertise, 274 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 2: Microsoft is a busted trend. What do you do with 275 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 2: Microsoft when it blows to resistance like that or support? 276 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 6: Well, I think that the challenge is always about balancing 277 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 6: the strength of the trend with sort of the frequency 278 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 6: of outliers. So when we see trends that are extreme, 279 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 6: oftentimes there's not enough data to determine whether or not 280 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 6: that trend will continue. Trend as a strategy works much 281 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 6: better in the middle of the distribution, so when you're 282 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 6: going through sort of a thematic trend, but not when 283 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 6: you're sort of at the extrema. 284 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 4: So where are you seeing from your trend perspective, Katie, 285 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 4: Where are you guys seeing opportunities in the marketplace these days? 286 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 6: Well, this is a good question because we had pretty 287 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 6: strong trends going into the month of June and we 288 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 6: saw you know, clearly energy has been a big theme 289 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 6: that unraveled. The long equity trades have been working, but 290 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 6: rotating fixed income has been a short view that has 291 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 6: abated some with some of the de escalation. And I 292 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 6: think the one trend that seems to be emerging that 293 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 6: was newer was the long dollar trend and this idea 294 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 6: that the relative positioning of the US dollar could cause 295 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 6: it to come back after it's really struggled quite a bit. 296 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 2: What is a trend structure of the equity market right now? 297 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 2: Can you say there's a persistency. As somebody mentioned drift earlier. 298 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 2: I thought of Candy Kominski. Is there a constructive drift 299 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 2: to this bull market? 300 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 6: There definitely has been, but it is really differential depending 301 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 6: on which asset you've seen. And so for example, the 302 00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 6: relative positioning of the Dow Jones versus say NAT stack 303 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 6: has actually reverted some. So we've seen sort of more that. 304 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 5: Pivot recently in equities. 305 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 6: So overall, the strength of trends are relatively strong, not 306 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 6: at high high levels, but you are seeing some sort 307 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 6: of rotation amongst trend signals in terms of which assets are. 308 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 3: Leading the pack. 309 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 4: Equities continue to move higher. John Tucker and his reports 310 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 4: tells us new time highs, all time highs pretty much 311 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 4: every day. What's your equity call here? 312 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 6: So equities, because of the volatility that we've seen, is 313 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 6: sort of a moderate bullish signal. I'd say that you've 314 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 6: seen sort of it's not all systems go by any means, 315 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 6: and that's because you've seen a lot of hesitation in 316 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 6: the price action you've seen. But why you continue to 317 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 6: be long equities is because there's always seems to be 318 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 6: buying pressure when you have that reversal. But these reversals 319 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 6: are happening, so it's not sort of an all systems 320 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 6: go trend. It's definitely you know, proceed with caution. 321 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 2: But still long, Katie, we're gonna have to run here 322 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 2: because we've got to follow the immediate market. Here. Do 323 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 2: you have a trend on gold? Asking for John Tucker? 324 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 2: I mean gold, is gold a busted trade? Like Microsoft's 325 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 2: a busted trade? 326 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 6: Well, gold has been, I mean, trying to go short, 327 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 6: I'd say so. I mean, i'd say that if you 328 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,479 Speaker 6: call it a busted trade, I'd say it is kind 329 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 6: of a busted trade by that definition. 330 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 5: But who knows it could come back. 331 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,680 Speaker 6: Well, we'll see. It was just so huge last year, 332 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 6: so it deserved a little bit of reversal. 333 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,159 Speaker 2: Katie, perfect, Thank you so much. Katherin Kaminski, were this 334 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 2: Alpha simplex as well? I got a motion on Katherine 335 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,119 Speaker 2: Camp and you know she's in studio today. I know 336 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 2: I had no idea. That's because the the Invesco helicopter 337 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 2: could land on top of the towers say out to 338 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 2: the Hey, let's do this from the Interactive Broker studios. Hey, 339 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 2: job's day, Bloomberg business Flash, John Tucker. 340 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 7: Oh, the market reaction, so we're less rape hikey uh 341 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 7: slower than anticipate hit an increase in jobs driving stocks higher. 342 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 7: Bond yields are falling. The two year seven basis points 343 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,479 Speaker 7: lower four to ten, the ten year yield two basis 344 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 7: points lower at four forty five, down futures two hundred 345 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:14,639 Speaker 7: and sixty two, of the S and P futures up 346 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 7: twenty eight, and the NASDEK futures right now one hundred 347 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 7: and sixty two. So weak of an expended payrolls report, 348 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 7: especially with the downward revisions last month, crossing kind of 349 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 7: a knee jerk bowl steepening of the yield curve at 350 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 7: this point. And also interesting note dollar dollar DXY down 351 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 7: eight tenths of eight percent. And we check the markets 352 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 7: for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio. 353 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 7: I'm John Tucker. That is your Bloomberg Business Flash pall on, Tom. 354 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, John Tucker. Futures up twenty seven 355 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 2: right now, there's a persistency to it. Li've ebbed away 356 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 2: a bit. The VIC sixteen point zero zero. Christina cap 357 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 2: Many with us, and we thank her for really coming 358 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,439 Speaker 2: into the studio today on this odd day. She's going 359 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 2: to add, you know, work from home, Yeah, whatever, but 360 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 2: she's here. Does this job's report change Kevin Worsh's world? 361 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 2: Do you look at Claudia Sama's making clear this is 362 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 2: not a shift report, she's as a boring economist, but 363 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 2: you're in the trenches. Does this change the debate? 364 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:19,120 Speaker 3: I don't think so. I think she's right. 365 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 8: I think the big question here is we're all trying 366 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 8: to figure out what Worsh's messaging is, what he's trying 367 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 8: to accomplish. I think he's also trying to figure out 368 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 8: how he wants to communicate to the market. It seems 369 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 8: clear that he has come out and is speaking very 370 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 8: aggressively on the inflation front. Now is that I'm going 371 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 8: to talk very strongly and it buys me time and 372 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:43,880 Speaker 8: I don't have to do anything, or like I'm ready 373 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 8: to shock and all. 374 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 3: We don't know that yet. 375 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 2: But I think we do live in a. 376 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 8: Different world that we can go into meetings price fifty 377 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 8: to fifty or like, I don't think we live in 378 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 8: the same world that we're going to go into a 379 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 8: FED meeting at either zero or twenty five and we've 380 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 8: been guided handheld. And he spoke to that in century 381 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 8: yesterday too, of during the financial crisis, we had to 382 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 8: handhold the market, like that's not the environment anymore. 383 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:10,479 Speaker 3: So I think that they're more focused there. 384 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,679 Speaker 8: And the labor market has proved to all of us 385 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 8: in the last six months that it is more resilient 386 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 8: even with today's number. 387 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,440 Speaker 4: So where do you guys, and you guys are global 388 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 4: in view, where do you see the best opportunities in 389 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 4: fixing PILM? 390 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 8: I think so, I think two things to your point 391 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 8: of like we're sitting in the seats and it is 392 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 8: versus an economist. It is a more tactical market, and 393 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 8: I think we're in this kind of rangy market. So 394 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,879 Speaker 8: we are a bit more active than I think we 395 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 8: have we had been. And then where do we see opportunities? 396 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 8: I think if I look at fixed income, the US 397 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 8: still to me looks rich and we don't have term 398 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 8: premium built in. And I appreciate that we have this 399 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 8: like very aggressive speak, but I don't know, the curve 400 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 8: is too flat. I don't want to own the long 401 00:20:58,000 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 8: end in the US. And then I think it makes 402 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 8: the rest of the world more interesting. Europe offers value. 403 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 8: We've gotten one hike from the ECB perhaps we'll get 404 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 8: another and I think that that's it, Okay, Morris Price 405 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 8: like so Europe, UK, Australia. I think there's other places 406 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 8: that are. 407 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 2: Because this is really important because there it's Centro and 408 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 2: everybody's happy, happy, happy. I was going nuts. I wanted 409 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 2: to ask them brutal questions. The fact is the UK 410 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 2: is a coupon, like no, it's like a dream. How 411 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 2: does a shop like you handle a ten year guilt 412 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 2: or you know, I'm making this up a voted phone 413 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 2: piece of twenty years. 414 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,200 Speaker 8: So I think it's weighing and it goes back to 415 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 8: the basics of all investments like risk and return right, 416 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 8: And I think the UK it definitely offers value, and 417 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 8: we own some in the front end and some in 418 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,959 Speaker 8: I think both pieces offer value because I don't think 419 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 8: the BOE delivers. So the front end is interesting, and 420 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,920 Speaker 8: I think the very long end because you've had changes 421 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 8: in the supply dynamics and all of those, and we 422 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 8: think that the government even with the change, if you 423 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 8: get Burnham and we'll kind of drive it down the 424 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 8: middle and we'll be contained with what's priced. But it 425 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 8: is a less liquid market, it is more volatile. I 426 00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 8: think we have to kind of take that into account 427 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 8: when we think about sizing a position, and right like, 428 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 8: it's a different market to trade. 429 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 4: You say you're underweight credit. Does that mean you didn't 430 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 4: buy the SpaceX, you didn't buy all the AI bonds 431 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 4: that were issued. 432 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 8: We haven't as much. And I think we think about 433 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:31,359 Speaker 8: credit as it's the jump risk product within fixed income, 434 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,360 Speaker 8: and I think people don't kind of give it that credence. 435 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 8: And again, I grew up in a rates background and 436 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 8: look at broad fixed income, so I always like, I 437 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 8: don't the all in yield comment. I understand that investors 438 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 8: do behave that way, but for us, spreads are tight, 439 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 8: and we think that there's kind of better ways that 440 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 8: we can piece meal things together. So we do own credit. 441 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 8: We're in the front end, but I think we're a 442 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 8: bit more cautious there with how tight it is. 443 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 2: I have to ask this missus. K emails in and 444 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 2: she's going around my cane after Harry Kane. Sure, and 445 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 2: that's replace me on the doorknob outside the kitchen, sort 446 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 2: of towards the west wing. She's got the nixt merch 447 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:15,160 Speaker 2: going on, and she says, you have to ask Christine 448 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,200 Speaker 2: because she sees my notes. I'm up at two am 449 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,399 Speaker 2: for the show. Missus. Keane wants to know. Were you 450 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 2: in class with Jalen at Villanova? 451 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,880 Speaker 8: I'm a little older, but we do love our Nova 452 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 8: Nicks at home. 453 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,439 Speaker 2: Wow, was he like on campus when you were there? 454 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 2: You were a senior and he was a freshman or 455 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:33,560 Speaker 2: something like that. 456 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,680 Speaker 8: No, they won their first championship in sixteen, two days 457 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 8: before I had my first my first daughter, which was 458 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 8: who was very early and home. Of course you had 459 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 8: your baby so early, you were out until midnight watching 460 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,200 Speaker 8: that Villanova game. Like these are important moments, mom, But 461 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 8: it's a it's a proud time for Villanova community for sure, 462 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 8: and they're like very good quality, good human beings, which 463 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 8: I think has shows across who is. 464 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,399 Speaker 3: Jalen camsh just. 465 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 2: Want to get Christina, thank you so much for your 466 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 2: commitment towards jobs. They really really appreciate it. Christina Campmeny 467 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 2: as the most nicked merch at Invesco, and we thank 468 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 2: her for coming in. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg 469 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,159 Speaker 2: Surveillance coming up after this. 470 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 471 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 472 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 473 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube. 474 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 2: Joining us now too short of visit Margie Patel Johns's 475 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 2: definitive and iconic on generating monthly and quarterly income. Margie 476 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 2: It's dividends and dividend girls still good ample competition to 477 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 2: interest and yield. 478 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 9: Definitely, because I've incorporate earnings are going to continue to 479 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 9: be strong. They surprised on the upside from several quarters 480 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,479 Speaker 9: now even with relatively modest GDP growth. So I think 481 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,360 Speaker 9: stocks are going to at stocks, especially dividend stocks, will 482 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 9: continue to outperform fixed income alternatives. 483 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 2: Like what category, what sector it gives you the best opportunity? 484 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 2: Do software stocks pay dividends now? 485 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 9: I think I prefer the more of the secular growth 486 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 9: on the hardware side in tech rather than the software. 487 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 9: I think there you can see a clearer path for 488 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,440 Speaker 9: high growth for a number of years, and I think, 489 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 9: really we're not going to see earnings broadened out only 490 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:42,399 Speaker 9: those companies and sectors that have above average cyclical growth. 491 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 9: So I think industrial companies, aerospace and defense related to 492 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 9: the electrical geared, and of course technology will continue to 493 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,440 Speaker 9: perform other parts of the economy, which I think will 494 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:57,920 Speaker 9: be more flatish and have rather modest growth in earnings. 495 00:25:58,840 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 5: Margie. 496 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 4: One of the sectors that historically has been well received 497 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 4: by the market that's sell on hard times is kind 498 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 4: of software in general, but specifically software as a service, 499 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 4: as the market tries to, you know, kind of dice 500 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 4: out AIS as a competitor here. How do you think 501 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 4: about software? 502 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 5: Well, I think that there again, you have a broad 503 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:20,360 Speaker 5: range of companies. 504 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:24,200 Speaker 9: I think the ones the market leaders, you know, say Microsoft, 505 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 9: I'll throw in there is probably the best position with 506 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 9: a balanced business profile. But we think that the growth 507 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 9: will be more modest than a lot of people are thinking. 508 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 9: We don't think we're going to see a huge balance 509 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,680 Speaker 9: back comparable with what we've seen in some of the 510 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:40,639 Speaker 9: other text talks. 511 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,400 Speaker 2: Margie, what do you say to the gloom crew? I mean, 512 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 2: you remember when the Red Sox won five games in 513 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 2: a row. I mean, she remembers Frank mail Zone. Oh, 514 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 2: she goes back that far, Margie, what do you say 515 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,639 Speaker 2: to the gloom crew that's been wrong for twenty years? 516 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:00,640 Speaker 5: Say that again? 517 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 2: Tom, what do you say to the gloom crew that's 518 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,200 Speaker 2: been wrong for two decades. 519 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 5: Oh yes, yes, it gives me time to think. I 520 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 5: think they're still wrong. 521 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 9: I think people have been expecting a return to the 522 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 9: cyclicality where the FED slams on the brakes, floods the 523 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,199 Speaker 9: system with money, and it just hasn't happened. 524 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 5: Corporate earnings have been very, very strong. 525 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 9: In fact, we've seen no sign whatsoever that with inflation 526 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 9: being above the fence targets, the profit margins are squeezing. 527 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 9: So I think that that's much more important our companies 528 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,920 Speaker 9: maintaining profit margins increasing prices, because that's what the high 529 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 9: inflation is saying to me, that they have the ability 530 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,119 Speaker 9: to raise prices. And I think the fit is as 531 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 9: Warsh is doing is pretty much on the sidelines as 532 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 9: far as thinking that a quarter point movement in rates 533 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 9: will have some effect on the whole economy. 534 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,760 Speaker 2: Margie, thank you so much, breaking news. You got to 535 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 2: run too, but really really appreciate it. Always legendary out 536 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,360 Speaker 2: of Boston, Margie Patel joins us, so we greatly appreciate 537 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 2: her efforts. Today, stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance 538 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 2: coming up after this. 539 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch us live 540 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 541 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 542 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 543 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,360 Speaker 2: Paul and I really make a commitment to talk outside 544 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,880 Speaker 2: the normal bounds out of Simmons and b Leah Tanagucci 545 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,640 Speaker 2: is with Bullhorn, which is a whole different shop. Let's 546 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 2: start with that. What's Bullhorn's not? JP Morgan? What is Bullhorn? 547 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 10: Bullhorn is a software company. We produce the staffing and 548 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 10: recruitment industry software for about ten thousand customers. So what 549 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,640 Speaker 10: we do is we create the software that helps place 550 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,920 Speaker 10: people looking for jobs with recruiters and match them. 551 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 2: You are an absolute cross heres of job replacement with 552 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:02,600 Speaker 2: artificial intelligence one hundred Your opinion of where that's going 553 00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:04,520 Speaker 2: to be in a year or five years. 554 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 5: I have a. 555 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 10: Slightly unpopular opinion. I don't have the same doomsday predictions 556 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 10: as everyone else that we're going to see fifty percent 557 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 10: reduction in jobs. I think we'll probably see five six 558 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 10: percent reduction in jobs because they've been replaced by AI. 559 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 10: But what I actually think we're going to see even 560 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 10: more is a change in the nature of work. I 561 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 10: think every single one of us is going to see 562 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 10: twenty thirty percent of our job potentially even more be 563 00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 10: shifted to doing more of this hybrid human agentic work. 564 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 10: I know, I see it all the time. I use 565 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 10: AI every single day, and I don't think it's put 566 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 10: me out. 567 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 9: Of a job. 568 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 2: Yet. 569 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 10: It still needs me to ask the question, interpret the results, 570 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 10: and tell it what to look at next. But it 571 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 10: is changing the pace and nature of what I do 572 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 10: all the time. 573 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 4: What are employers looking for these days? 574 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 10: One of the things that's really interesting is part of 575 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 10: our work is that we track job openings across millions 576 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,640 Speaker 10: of US jobs sites, and that means we are tracking 577 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 10: not only the roles that are being placed, but also 578 00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 10: the skills that they're looking for. Ironically, we run it 579 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 10: through an LM that helps us make sense of what 580 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 10: those skills are. And what we've really seen lately over 581 00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 10: the last year is a huge increase and a desire 582 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 10: for flexible thinking, critical and analytical thinking skills, decision making, leadership, collaboration, 583 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 10: people who can work in really complex environments, respond to 584 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 10: and pivot according to really rapidly changing market and business data. 585 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 10: But we're not seeing as many job descriptions looking for 586 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:42,040 Speaker 10: some of those old school fundamental soft skills like communication 587 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 10: and writing. They're looking for things that are really so 588 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 10: higher order skills. And as a proud Liberal Arts graduate, 589 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 10: to me, this says, this is the biggest endorsement I've 590 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,960 Speaker 10: seen in a decade for liberal arts education. They want 591 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 10: people who can think and who can work with technology 592 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,600 Speaker 10: wherever it goes, largely because employers don't know what work's 593 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 10: going to look like in twelve months. They're not sure 594 00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 10: quired for. 595 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,200 Speaker 2: The Detroit Lions blue button. The number one thing I 596 00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 2: get from family and friends is just what you said, 597 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 2: we don't know. I mean again, you're in the trend. 598 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 2: I think of concentrics in the Philippines one hundred and 599 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 2: twenty thousand people, and the gloom is it's all going 600 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 2: to go away. We're all going to die in call 601 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,240 Speaker 2: centers and all that. The answers, we just don't know. 602 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 2: That's the fundamental issue, right, we don't know. 603 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 10: But I'm an ai optimist. I think that what it's 604 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 10: going to do is shift work the same way this 605 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 10: happened when you know the horse and buggy went away. 606 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 10: When this is you know, I'm old enough to remember 607 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 10: when the Internet started and people said, oh no, it's 608 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 10: going to nobody's going to know how to think anymore. 609 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:50,800 Speaker 10: Everyone's just going to rely on it to spit out 610 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 10: all of the answers. And that's not what happened. It 611 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,720 Speaker 10: became a tool, and it made some of the human 612 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 10: input even more important. And I think if we manage 613 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 10: this right as assiet, that's the same place we're gonna 614 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 10: get to. That being said, I'm not gonna tell you 615 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:05,640 Speaker 10: it's gonna be without pain. 616 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 2: Lea, we gotta go, got tons of breaking dude. I 617 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,800 Speaker 2: thought this was a quiet nothing not happening. Please don't 618 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 2: be a stranger. Leah Tanagucci with us with Bullhorn. 619 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:19,400 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 620 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:23,840 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 621 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 622 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 623 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 624 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal