WEBVTT - The Obsession With a Vaccine Could Hurt Us

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two eight

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<v Speaker 1>since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story.

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<v Speaker 1>The US government's COVID nineteen strategy has been defined in

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<v Speaker 1>part by focusing almost exclusively on speeding drug development for

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<v Speaker 1>treatments and vaccines, But the lack of a corresponding effort

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<v Speaker 1>to mitigate the outbreak could mean it will take years

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<v Speaker 1>for life to return to normal. But first, here's what

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<v Speaker 1>happened in virus news today. The Port Authority of New

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<v Speaker 1>York and New Jersey said it will find people fifty

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<v Speaker 1>dollars for not covering their faces at airports and at

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<v Speaker 1>bus and sub way terminals. Since March, the agency has

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<v Speaker 1>used posters, public service announcements, and other means to promote

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<v Speaker 1>mask wearing. The new mandate comes as case and hospitalization

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<v Speaker 1>numbers rise in New York and New Jersey. The states

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<v Speaker 1>are trying to prevent a second wave of the novel coronavirus.

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<v Speaker 1>New York City alone has reported almost twenty four thousand

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<v Speaker 1>virus related deaths, about two thirds of the state's overall total.

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<v Speaker 1>The US government agreed to pay drugmaker Eli Lily for

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<v Speaker 1>three hundred thousand vials of its experimental antibody treatment. The

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<v Speaker 1>therapy is under regulatory review for emergency authorization use. The

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<v Speaker 1>funding from Operation Warp Speed, the White House led effort

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<v Speaker 1>to quickly secure supply of COVID nineteen vaccines and therapeutics,

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<v Speaker 1>will only be put into effect if Lily's therapy receives

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<v Speaker 1>a green light from the US Food and Drug Administration. Finally,

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<v Speaker 1>UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is bracing for another lockdown

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<v Speaker 1>in England. New modeling by the UK government's Emergency Scientific

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<v Speaker 1>Committee suggests the entire country is likely to require the

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<v Speaker 1>tightest restrictions by mid December. The modeling suggests that the

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<v Speaker 1>new wave will lead to more deaths than the first,

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<v Speaker 1>casting doubt on the British Prime Minister's localized approach. The

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<v Speaker 1>Sun newspaper reported government scientists predict that about twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>thousand people will be hospitalized with the novel coronavirus by

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<v Speaker 1>the end of November. And now for today's main story.

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<v Speaker 1>The US government's COVID nineteen strategy has been for i

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<v Speaker 1>on developing vaccines and treatments rather than emphasized measures to

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<v Speaker 1>limit the spread of the disease that could delay the

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<v Speaker 1>return to normal life for most Americans. While the US

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<v Speaker 1>has committed more than ten billion dollars to develop new

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<v Speaker 1>shots to fight COVID nineteen, about half of Americans in

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<v Speaker 1>a gallop pole said they are wary of taking them,

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<v Speaker 1>and one report suggests that if the vaccine program has

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<v Speaker 1>any hiccups, we could be living with the virus well

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<v Speaker 1>into twenty three. I spoke with health reporter Naomi Kresky,

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<v Speaker 1>who reported on the cost of the government's focus on

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<v Speaker 1>developing drugs rather than changing behavior. Many hopes in the

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<v Speaker 1>US and of course worldwide are pinned on the arrival

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<v Speaker 1>of a vaccine for con rolling this pandemic. I was

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<v Speaker 1>just wondering, what are some of the dangers in putting

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<v Speaker 1>so much weight on the availability of a vaccine. So

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<v Speaker 1>one significant danger in doing that would be if you

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<v Speaker 1>pinned all of your hopes on a vaccine and did

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<v Speaker 1>not do all of the other things that are necessary

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<v Speaker 1>to try to um control the pandemic before a vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>comes um And you know, the fact of the matter

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<v Speaker 1>is that just the availability of a vaccine. Saying a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine is approved does not mean that suddenly everyone will

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<v Speaker 1>immediately be immunized. UM. It will take time to distribute vaccine. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>There will be you know, priorities will need to be set.

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<v Speaker 1>Probably vaccine will go first to two healthcare workers and

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<v Speaker 1>two people with chronic conditions. UM. It will take a

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<v Speaker 1>long time before before enough of the population can be

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated to achieve herd immunity via vaccination. UM. We talked

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<v Speaker 1>with Marie Paul Keeney, the research director at in Some,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a French health science institute, and she's a

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<v Speaker 1>former WHO official, and she told us a vaccine isn't

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<v Speaker 1>a magic wand UM, it won't be a quick fix,

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<v Speaker 1>she said, even if it is effective. And let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about efficacy, you know, particularly in the US, and you

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<v Speaker 1>know what has been put out by the FDA, What

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<v Speaker 1>are the requirements for how effective a vaccine has to

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<v Speaker 1>be to be approved? So the f d A has

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<v Speaker 1>said that, UM, they would give emergency authorization to a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine which is fifty effective, which means that it's what

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<v Speaker 1>it sounds like, it could work in half of people.

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<v Speaker 1>And the factor at play there is that less effective

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<v Speaker 1>a vaccine is, the more people need to take it

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<v Speaker 1>in order to protect the population. As a whole. And

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<v Speaker 1>so this is one of these um kind of wild cards.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we won't know how long it will take

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<v Speaker 1>to vaccinate enough people to really protect the population until

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<v Speaker 1>we know how effective these vaccines that are in final

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<v Speaker 1>tests right now actually turn out to be. And that

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<v Speaker 1>raises an issue of trust. Many Americans have said they

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<v Speaker 1>may not trust the first COVID nineteen vaccines that are available,

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<v Speaker 1>or may not be willing to take a vaccine at all.

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<v Speaker 1>So what needs to happen, in your view, to convince

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<v Speaker 1>Americans to be vaccinated. Yeah, that's that's an interesting question.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, probably some pretty good pr some good marketing. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>We interviewed somebody who compared, you know, the situation to

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<v Speaker 1>past vaccination campaigns, you know, back in the day when

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<v Speaker 1>Elvis was getting vaccinated on TV in order to get

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<v Speaker 1>people to take a polio vaccine. UM. You know, reluctance

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<v Speaker 1>has been shown um to be high, and some in

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<v Speaker 1>some surveys people are are a little bit let's say,

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<v Speaker 1>some people are waiting to see, you know, what the

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<v Speaker 1>what the results will be for the vaccines that are

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<v Speaker 1>being tested. So you've highlighted a number of issues that

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<v Speaker 1>even if and when a vaccine is available. As you say,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not a magic wand the risk of COVID nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>will not just go away immediately. So let's talk a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more about timelines. You know, in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>a best case scenario, what would need to happen to

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<v Speaker 1>significantly lower the risk of COVID nineteen and realistically, how

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<v Speaker 1>soon do you think that's that's achievable. So we actually

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<v Speaker 1>went to a consulting company based in London called air

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<v Speaker 1>Affinity to crunch some of these numbers. So, according to

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<v Speaker 1>their calculations, in order to vaccinate enough people in the

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<v Speaker 1>US to achieve HERD immunity through vaccination by mid July,

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<v Speaker 1>the government would need for all six vaccines that it

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<v Speaker 1>has purchased in advance to succeed. So all six of

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<v Speaker 1>these would have to work and be safe, and it

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<v Speaker 1>would need to get all of the optional extra allocations

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<v Speaker 1>that are in those purchase deals as well. Um, So

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<v Speaker 1>each of these deals, there's kind of a base level

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<v Speaker 1>of vaccine and the deal, and then there's an optional

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<v Speaker 1>extra amount and so the government, the US government would

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<v Speaker 1>need to get to that base level and then they

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<v Speaker 1>would also need to get the optional x STRA amount

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<v Speaker 1>and then obviously all six vaccines would have to work.

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<v Speaker 1>And if all of those things can happen, sort of

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<v Speaker 1>a perfect case scenario, depending on how well how well

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine works, of course, they could potentially have quelled

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<v Speaker 1>the virus by mid July of next year. Now, if

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<v Speaker 1>let's say only four of the six vaccines are approved,

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<v Speaker 1>and that would actually be pretty good. You know, in

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<v Speaker 1>drug development, things are not guaranteed to work, and so

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<v Speaker 1>it's not unreasonable to think that only four could be approved.

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<v Speaker 1>Um and then then let's say production and supply run

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<v Speaker 1>into some issues, so maybe those are each about lower

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<v Speaker 1>than expected. Then just based on those things, the US

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<v Speaker 1>could see delays in achieving that HERD immunity level That

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<v Speaker 1>would run into the second quarter of according to these calculations.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's a broad band of potential timelines and really

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of factors at play. I mean, when we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about lowering the risk of COVID nineteen, is there

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<v Speaker 1>a threshold? Is there an actual number which we're measuring

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<v Speaker 1>that by. So one way to look at that would

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<v Speaker 1>be how many people need to be immune in society

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<v Speaker 1>in order for the virus not to spread? And who

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<v Speaker 1>has said that number is probably about sixty or seventy percent.

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<v Speaker 1>So you need sixty or seventy of people that have

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<v Speaker 1>immunity for the virus not to spread. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one way to achieve that would be for those people

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<v Speaker 1>to have gotten sick, but obviously that's not ideal because

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<v Speaker 1>then you're running into potentially very large numbers of people

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<v Speaker 1>who are getting very sick. Um. So when we talk

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<v Speaker 1>about that sixty to seventy threshold, we're generally talking about, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>sixty to seventy of people have been vaccinated and they

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<v Speaker 1>have immunity that way, okay. So you know, we've been

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<v Speaker 1>largely focusing on this timeline as it were to the

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<v Speaker 1>US and in terms of access, in terms of distribution

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<v Speaker 1>that might differ in other countries. And I was wondering

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<v Speaker 1>if you had looked into just what different scenarios we

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<v Speaker 1>might be seeing in other countries versus the U S

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<v Speaker 1>when we talk about lowering this risk and and maybe

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<v Speaker 1>even a potential timeline. So this is such a multi

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<v Speaker 1>prompt question to unpack. The US will probably have more

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<v Speaker 1>access to vaccine than many countries in the world, just

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<v Speaker 1>because it's a wealthy country. It's a country that has

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<v Speaker 1>already put a lot of money into finding these vaccines,

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<v Speaker 1>and it has advanced purchase deals for vaccines. There was

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<v Speaker 1>an ox FAN study that came out last month that

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<v Speaker 1>found that wealthy nations that represent just of the world's

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<v Speaker 1>population already have essentially cornered more than half of the

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<v Speaker 1>promised doses of leading vaccine candidates. So they already tied

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<v Speaker 1>up more than half of the capacity of vaccines that

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<v Speaker 1>are being developed in advanced purchase deals, which leaves the

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<v Speaker 1>vast majority of the world's population um looking to get

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<v Speaker 1>access to vaccine probably later. So that's one factor is

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<v Speaker 1>that the US, by virtue of wealth, is actually in

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good shape in terms of getting access to vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>The other factor, of course, is that you can achieve

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<v Speaker 1>some level of safety and social reopening by controlling the

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<v Speaker 1>virus through other methods before vaccine is present, and so

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<v Speaker 1>there are countries that are really doing more with testing, tracing,

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<v Speaker 1>mask wearing, all of these kinds of really boring, unsexy

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<v Speaker 1>basic public health measures that have been shown in some

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<v Speaker 1>countries to really work well against the virus. Is there

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<v Speaker 1>anything that either the US government should be doing or

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<v Speaker 1>or Americans can be doing to try and bring about

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<v Speaker 1>this best case scenario in terms of lowering the risk

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID nineteen by July. Is there anything we can

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<v Speaker 1>be doing right now? Work should be doing right now.

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<v Speaker 1>So there are things that can be done on a

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<v Speaker 1>government level and on an individual level. Um On the

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<v Speaker 1>government level, the w h O is urging all governments

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<v Speaker 1>to invest in testing to promote mask wearing. And I

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<v Speaker 1>also just want to mention treatments. There are treatments that

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<v Speaker 1>are being developed for the virus and new treatment strategies,

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<v Speaker 1>and I talked to one company CEO from Novartist yesterday actually,

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<v Speaker 1>who said that he thinks that in the next year,

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<v Speaker 1>doctors will slowly refine these treatments. They'll figure out better

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<v Speaker 1>ways to treat people, figure out when to use certain medicines.

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<v Speaker 1>And that also will be a mitigating measure to ensure

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<v Speaker 1>that if people do get sick, they're able to get

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<v Speaker 1>better quicker. That was not only risk. And that's it

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<v Speaker 1>for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from

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<v Speaker 1>one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot

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<v Speaker 1>com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please

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<v Speaker 1>leave us a review and a rating. On Apple podcasts

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<v Speaker 1>or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners

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<v Speaker 1>find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced

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<v Speaker 1>by Tophah. Foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson.

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<v Speaker 1>Today's main story was reported by Naomi Kresky. Original music

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<v Speaker 1>by Leo Sidran. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi.

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<v Speaker 1>Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening,

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<v Speaker 1>The Brook the Las