1 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:10,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two eight 2 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 3 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:20,799 Speaker 1: The US government's COVID nineteen strategy has been defined in 4 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: part by focusing almost exclusively on speeding drug development for 5 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: treatments and vaccines, But the lack of a corresponding effort 6 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: to mitigate the outbreak could mean it will take years 7 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: for life to return to normal. But first, here's what 8 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:51,319 Speaker 1: happened in virus news today. The Port Authority of New 9 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: York and New Jersey said it will find people fifty 10 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:59,279 Speaker 1: dollars for not covering their faces at airports and at 11 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: bus and sub way terminals. Since March, the agency has 12 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: used posters, public service announcements, and other means to promote 13 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:13,320 Speaker 1: mask wearing. The new mandate comes as case and hospitalization 14 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: numbers rise in New York and New Jersey. The states 15 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 1: are trying to prevent a second wave of the novel coronavirus. 16 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: New York City alone has reported almost twenty four thousand 17 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: virus related deaths, about two thirds of the state's overall total. 18 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 1: The US government agreed to pay drugmaker Eli Lily for 19 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 1: three hundred thousand vials of its experimental antibody treatment. The 20 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 1: therapy is under regulatory review for emergency authorization use. The 21 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 1: funding from Operation Warp Speed, the White House led effort 22 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: to quickly secure supply of COVID nineteen vaccines and therapeutics, 23 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: will only be put into effect if Lily's therapy receives 24 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 1: a green light from the US Food and Drug Administration. Finally, 25 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is bracing for another lockdown 26 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: in England. New modeling by the UK government's Emergency Scientific 27 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:21,519 Speaker 1: Committee suggests the entire country is likely to require the 28 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 1: tightest restrictions by mid December. The modeling suggests that the 29 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: new wave will lead to more deaths than the first, 30 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: casting doubt on the British Prime Minister's localized approach. The 31 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:40,399 Speaker 1: Sun newspaper reported government scientists predict that about twenty five 32 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: thousand people will be hospitalized with the novel coronavirus by 33 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: the end of November. And now for today's main story. 34 00:02:56,200 --> 00:03:00,079 Speaker 1: The US government's COVID nineteen strategy has been for i 35 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 1: on developing vaccines and treatments rather than emphasized measures to 36 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: limit the spread of the disease that could delay the 37 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 1: return to normal life for most Americans. While the US 38 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 1: has committed more than ten billion dollars to develop new 39 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: shots to fight COVID nineteen, about half of Americans in 40 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 1: a gallop pole said they are wary of taking them, 41 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: and one report suggests that if the vaccine program has 42 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: any hiccups, we could be living with the virus well 43 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: into twenty three. I spoke with health reporter Naomi Kresky, 44 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: who reported on the cost of the government's focus on 45 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: developing drugs rather than changing behavior. Many hopes in the 46 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 1: US and of course worldwide are pinned on the arrival 47 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: of a vaccine for con rolling this pandemic. I was 48 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: just wondering, what are some of the dangers in putting 49 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: so much weight on the availability of a vaccine. So 50 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 1: one significant danger in doing that would be if you 51 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: pinned all of your hopes on a vaccine and did 52 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: not do all of the other things that are necessary 53 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: to try to um control the pandemic before a vaccine 54 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 1: comes um And you know, the fact of the matter 55 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: is that just the availability of a vaccine. Saying a 56 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: vaccine is approved does not mean that suddenly everyone will 57 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 1: immediately be immunized. UM. It will take time to distribute vaccine. UM. 58 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,359 Speaker 1: There will be you know, priorities will need to be set. 59 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: Probably vaccine will go first to two healthcare workers and 60 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 1: two people with chronic conditions. UM. It will take a 61 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: long time before before enough of the population can be 62 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: vaccinated to achieve herd immunity via vaccination. UM. We talked 63 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: with Marie Paul Keeney, the research director at in Some, 64 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: which is a French health science institute, and she's a 65 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: former WHO official, and she told us a vaccine isn't 66 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 1: a magic wand UM, it won't be a quick fix, 67 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:31,239 Speaker 1: she said, even if it is effective. And let's talk 68 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 1: about efficacy, you know, particularly in the US, and you 69 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 1: know what has been put out by the FDA, What 70 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: are the requirements for how effective a vaccine has to 71 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: be to be approved? So the f d A has 72 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: said that, UM, they would give emergency authorization to a 73 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: vaccine which is fifty effective, which means that it's what 74 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: it sounds like, it could work in half of people. 75 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 1: And the factor at play there is that less effective 76 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: a vaccine is, the more people need to take it 77 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: in order to protect the population. As a whole. And 78 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 1: so this is one of these um kind of wild cards. 79 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: You know, we won't know how long it will take 80 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 1: to vaccinate enough people to really protect the population until 81 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 1: we know how effective these vaccines that are in final 82 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: tests right now actually turn out to be. And that 83 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: raises an issue of trust. Many Americans have said they 84 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 1: may not trust the first COVID nineteen vaccines that are available, 85 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: or may not be willing to take a vaccine at all. 86 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: So what needs to happen, in your view, to convince 87 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: Americans to be vaccinated. Yeah, that's that's an interesting question. 88 00:06:55,000 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: I mean, probably some pretty good pr some good marketing. UM. 89 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 1: We interviewed somebody who compared, you know, the situation to 90 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 1: past vaccination campaigns, you know, back in the day when 91 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: Elvis was getting vaccinated on TV in order to get 92 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: people to take a polio vaccine. UM. You know, reluctance 93 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: has been shown um to be high, and some in 94 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: some surveys people are are a little bit let's say, 95 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: some people are waiting to see, you know, what the 96 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 1: what the results will be for the vaccines that are 97 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: being tested. So you've highlighted a number of issues that 98 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: even if and when a vaccine is available. As you say, 99 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: it's not a magic wand the risk of COVID nineteen 100 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: will not just go away immediately. So let's talk a 101 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: little bit more about timelines. You know, in terms of 102 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: a best case scenario, what would need to happen to 103 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:09,119 Speaker 1: significantly lower the risk of COVID nineteen and realistically, how 104 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: soon do you think that's that's achievable. So we actually 105 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: went to a consulting company based in London called air 106 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: Affinity to crunch some of these numbers. So, according to 107 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: their calculations, in order to vaccinate enough people in the 108 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: US to achieve HERD immunity through vaccination by mid July, 109 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 1: the government would need for all six vaccines that it 110 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: has purchased in advance to succeed. So all six of 111 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: these would have to work and be safe, and it 112 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 1: would need to get all of the optional extra allocations 113 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: that are in those purchase deals as well. Um, So 114 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: each of these deals, there's kind of a base level 115 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: of vaccine and the deal, and then there's an optional 116 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 1: extra amount and so the government, the US government would 117 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: need to get to that base level and then they 118 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 1: would also need to get the optional x STRA amount 119 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,319 Speaker 1: and then obviously all six vaccines would have to work. 120 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: And if all of those things can happen, sort of 121 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: a perfect case scenario, depending on how well how well 122 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: the vaccine works, of course, they could potentially have quelled 123 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: the virus by mid July of next year. Now, if 124 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: let's say only four of the six vaccines are approved, 125 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:24,839 Speaker 1: and that would actually be pretty good. You know, in 126 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: drug development, things are not guaranteed to work, and so 127 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 1: it's not unreasonable to think that only four could be approved. 128 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 1: Um and then then let's say production and supply run 129 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: into some issues, so maybe those are each about lower 130 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: than expected. Then just based on those things, the US 131 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: could see delays in achieving that HERD immunity level That 132 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: would run into the second quarter of according to these calculations. 133 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: So there's a broad band of potential timelines and really 134 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:59,199 Speaker 1: a lot of factors at play. I mean, when we're 135 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 1: talking about lowering the risk of COVID nineteen, is there 136 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 1: a threshold? Is there an actual number which we're measuring 137 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 1: that by. So one way to look at that would 138 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 1: be how many people need to be immune in society 139 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 1: in order for the virus not to spread? And who 140 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: has said that number is probably about sixty or seventy percent. 141 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 1: So you need sixty or seventy of people that have 142 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 1: immunity for the virus not to spread. And you know, 143 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 1: one way to achieve that would be for those people 144 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:37,199 Speaker 1: to have gotten sick, but obviously that's not ideal because 145 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 1: then you're running into potentially very large numbers of people 146 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: who are getting very sick. Um. So when we talk 147 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 1: about that sixty to seventy threshold, we're generally talking about, Okay, 148 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 1: sixty to seventy of people have been vaccinated and they 149 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: have immunity that way, okay. So you know, we've been 150 00:10:56,480 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: largely focusing on this timeline as it were to the 151 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 1: US and in terms of access, in terms of distribution 152 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: that might differ in other countries. And I was wondering 153 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: if you had looked into just what different scenarios we 154 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: might be seeing in other countries versus the U S 155 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: when we talk about lowering this risk and and maybe 156 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 1: even a potential timeline. So this is such a multi 157 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: prompt question to unpack. The US will probably have more 158 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: access to vaccine than many countries in the world, just 159 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: because it's a wealthy country. It's a country that has 160 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 1: already put a lot of money into finding these vaccines, 161 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: and it has advanced purchase deals for vaccines. There was 162 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: an ox FAN study that came out last month that 163 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: found that wealthy nations that represent just of the world's 164 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 1: population already have essentially cornered more than half of the 165 00:11:55,760 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: promised doses of leading vaccine candidates. So they already tied 166 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: up more than half of the capacity of vaccines that 167 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 1: are being developed in advanced purchase deals, which leaves the 168 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 1: vast majority of the world's population um looking to get 169 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: access to vaccine probably later. So that's one factor is 170 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 1: that the US, by virtue of wealth, is actually in 171 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,239 Speaker 1: pretty good shape in terms of getting access to vaccine. 172 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: The other factor, of course, is that you can achieve 173 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 1: some level of safety and social reopening by controlling the 174 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: virus through other methods before vaccine is present, and so 175 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 1: there are countries that are really doing more with testing, tracing, 176 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 1: mask wearing, all of these kinds of really boring, unsexy 177 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,679 Speaker 1: basic public health measures that have been shown in some 178 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: countries to really work well against the virus. Is there 179 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: anything that either the US government should be doing or 180 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: or Americans can be doing to try and bring about 181 00:12:55,880 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: this best case scenario in terms of lowering the risk 182 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: of COVID nineteen by July. Is there anything we can 183 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 1: be doing right now? Work should be doing right now. 184 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 1: So there are things that can be done on a 185 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: government level and on an individual level. Um On the 186 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:17,079 Speaker 1: government level, the w h O is urging all governments 187 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 1: to invest in testing to promote mask wearing. And I 188 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,719 Speaker 1: also just want to mention treatments. There are treatments that 189 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: are being developed for the virus and new treatment strategies, 190 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:32,440 Speaker 1: and I talked to one company CEO from Novartist yesterday actually, 191 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: who said that he thinks that in the next year, 192 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 1: doctors will slowly refine these treatments. They'll figure out better 193 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 1: ways to treat people, figure out when to use certain medicines. 194 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 1: And that also will be a mitigating measure to ensure 195 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: that if people do get sick, they're able to get 196 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: better quicker. That was not only risk. And that's it 197 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from 198 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot 199 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please 200 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 1: leave us a review and a rating. On Apple podcasts 201 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 1: or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners 202 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 1: find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced 203 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: by Tophah. Foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. 204 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: Today's main story was reported by Naomi Kresky. Original music 205 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: by Leo Sidran. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. 206 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 1: Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening, 207 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: The Brook the Las