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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast, PODYA, All right,

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Speaker 1: here we.

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Speaker 2: Go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five forty coty

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Speaker 2: five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kick as block the college football world Stunners,

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he stumbled and football the lateral turn

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Speaker 3: a counter on the inside.

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Speaker 4: Do you believe I'm not gonna table off the field

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Speaker 4: the night, Holly.

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Speaker 3: It's not the size of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 3: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 4: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 4: on Campus Podcast. This is the Big twelve College Football

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Speaker 4: Betting Preview, Part one. I'm stucky in joining me as

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Speaker 4: always a fellow bbs eCos. Colin Wilson is the exciting

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Speaker 4: Big twelve from top to bottom. The way that we're

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Speaker 4: going to break this one out. For part one, we're

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Speaker 4: gonna do seven teams. We're gonna do all the teams

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Speaker 4: that are you know, about twelve to one or better

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Speaker 4: to win the league considered like the seven teams in

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Speaker 4: the mix that's Arizona State, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, Utah,

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Speaker 4: and Iowa State. And then in part two we'll cover

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Speaker 4: the nine remaining teams, go through their win totals and

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Speaker 4: then try to identify which team we think could be

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Speaker 4: worth a flyer. Is definitely viable in the Big Twelve

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Speaker 4: with all of the chaos. I mean, take a look

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Speaker 4: at the Big Twelve last year.

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Speaker 2: Well, we should prevace it by saying our podcast started

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Speaker 2: last year with the statement that eight of the sixteen

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Speaker 2: teams could win it, and the eighth that you and

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Speaker 2: I had picked out none of them were Arizona State.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, say all sixteen, right, including Oklahoma State. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I had Iowa State eleven to one last year and

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Speaker 4: then didn't feel great about it and hedged in the

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Speaker 4: championship game with one of the nine that I didn't

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Speaker 4: think could win it, which just goes to show you

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Speaker 4: the chaotic nature of the Big Twelve. These teams just

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Speaker 4: aren't separated by much. Like last year. B YU was

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Speaker 4: picked thirteenth, They finished thirteenth in the eight people. Arizona

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Speaker 4: State was picked last. They won it. West Virginia last

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Speaker 4: year was a bad football team, A very bad football team.

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Speaker 4: Couldn't stop a nosebleed. They were one of the nine

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Speaker 4: teams alive on the final weekend. West Virginia because they

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Speaker 4: were sitting at five and three, like that's all it took.

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Speaker 4: Last year, I went through an exercise outside of my

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Speaker 4: projections where I went through every single Big Twelve game

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Speaker 4: and then just said, Okay, what do I think happens

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Speaker 4: in every game for the fun of it, And I

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Speaker 4: ended up with a six way tie for.

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Speaker 1: First the Big Twelve Conference alive and through.

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Speaker 4: I will say with the Big Twelve this year a

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Speaker 4: lot of returning production. I believe seven of the top

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Speaker 4: twenty teams in returning production are in the Big Twelve.

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Speaker 4: Arizona State, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Utah, Houston, and Arizona.

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Speaker 4: Then you have some complete resets UCF new coach. They're

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Speaker 4: one of two teams with the new coach and they're

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Speaker 4: both reunions. You have UCF with Scott Frost complete reset,

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Speaker 4: West Virginia with Rich Rodriguez complete reset. And we'll get

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Speaker 4: to all of that. But of the seven teams you're

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Speaker 4: going to cover in Part one, five of those teams

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Speaker 4: are in the top twenty returning production. Let's start with Baylor.

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Speaker 1: The Baylor Bears second Bears win best.

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Speaker 4: If you want to go over best number you can

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Speaker 4: find over seven and a half minus one oh five

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Speaker 4: at Fandle best price to win the league plus seven

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Speaker 4: fifty at Caesars. The offense last year really took off

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Speaker 4: in the second half of the season. You have Rice

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Speaker 4: in Washington, the freshman running back, but they really missed

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Speaker 4: in the bowl game. He got hurt and like I think,

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Speaker 4: like the first play. But the offense was a top

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Speaker 4: ten offensive for the final seven games, a top five

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Speaker 4: in terms of twenty plus yard games and negative playwright.

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Speaker 4: That's a great combo. They were averaging like forty points

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Speaker 4: in five hundred yards per game. Sawyer Robertson really came on.

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Speaker 4: They switched up the offensive line a bit. Jake spavat

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Speaker 4: all in his first year, he was able to get

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Speaker 4: a more advanced installs the year went on. The question

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Speaker 4: is how much more can they improve on that or

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Speaker 4: is that kind of the peak of the offense. The

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Speaker 4: offense returns a ton. They even got Ashton Hawkins just

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Speaker 4: ruled eligible their wide receiver. They had some talented wide receiver,

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Speaker 4: I like the kid Kobe Wilson out of Texas State.

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Speaker 4: It'll be good in the return game as well. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: their offensive line returns a ton. Defense has to be better.

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Speaker 4: There's some new staff hires on the defensive side. I

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Speaker 4: like the defensive back coach Hire Miranda's calling plays again,

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Speaker 4: but they need to get better on the back end.

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Speaker 4: They were one hundred and twenty seventh defending pass explosiveness.

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Speaker 4: There's some talent coming back, but we'll see how the

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Speaker 4: secondary plays out. Jenkins needs to have a bounce back

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Speaker 4: year at corner. They added Simpson Hunt, this kid from

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Speaker 4: Ohio State. He's young, got a big body. Could he

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Speaker 4: play Nickels? He gonna play on the outside? Is he

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Speaker 4: going to get like so there's some moving pieces in

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Speaker 4: the secondary. I think for this team to reach its ceiling,

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Speaker 4: Randa it's known for defense, he's got to get that

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Speaker 4: side playing much better. From a scheduling perspective, they do

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Speaker 4: a five big twelve home games. They avoid from the

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Speaker 4: top Iowa State, Texas Tech. They don't play any of

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Speaker 4: the projected top six or five depending on your rankings

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Speaker 4: on the road. That's good, it's no. I should note

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Speaker 4: that they have a very tough non conference start Auburn,

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Speaker 4: which they're small underdogs, and then at SMU so Are

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Speaker 4: Robertson at a leg injury last year apparently he's healthy,

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Speaker 4: but that when he can run and move, that's when

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Speaker 4: their offense is at their peak. He's got to stay healthy,

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Speaker 4: Robertson with his with his head injury obviously a concern.

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Speaker 4: He has to stay healthy. So but those two non

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Speaker 4: conference games will be huge for their win total. In particular,

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Speaker 4: what are you seeing with the Baylor Bears.

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Speaker 2: The scout team being run by Walker White, the former

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Speaker 2: Auburn quarterback here for game one coming up. I like

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Speaker 2: Baylor a lot, but I have issues. I know that

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Speaker 2: everybody's on this bandwagon. I know the number is taken off.

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Speaker 2: I get it. With the schedule, you can catch some breaks.

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Speaker 2: The secondary does scare me, like you mentioned, and Sawyer

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Speaker 2: Robertson's numbers, like you know, the things that I look

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Speaker 2: at to see if it's if it's a quality quarterback.

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Speaker 2: I look at big time throws and turnover withth he plays.

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Speaker 2: I don't look at touchdowns and interceptions as much. I

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Speaker 2: look at your accuracy. I look at your depth of target.

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Speaker 2: I look at if you're good with whiteouts, if you're

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Speaker 2: you're contested, catch rate, do you throw on target balls?

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Speaker 2: And with Sawyer Robertson, I just am not there. I

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Speaker 2: see twenty eight to eight TDed I iNTS, but I

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Speaker 2: also see fifteen to sixteen big time throws to turnover

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Speaker 2: worth he plays. And what I have more problems with

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Speaker 2: is that just seven of those sixteen mistakes came with pressure,

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Speaker 2: so he's making mistakes in clean pockets. I'm not happy

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Speaker 2: with sixty ninth and on target rate. That means that

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Speaker 2: he's not even in the upper echelon of FBS football.

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Speaker 2: Does that come with age? Maybe you get two dudes back,

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Speaker 2: you get you know, Ashen Hawkins and white out Josh

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Speaker 2: Cameron back. I think he'll be predicted. The offensive line

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Speaker 2: returns four starters. They were fiftieth in lineyards and rushing success, right,

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Speaker 2: so I think from a rushing perspective, you're going to

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Speaker 2: get the exact same thing that you had last year.

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Speaker 2: You know, the limitations on this offense could be the

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Speaker 2: ceiling for Sawyer Robertson because I just don't see it

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Speaker 2: from a mistake perspective. Defensively, I think, you know, getting

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Speaker 2: Keaton Thomas was huge, his one hundred and fourteen tackles.

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Speaker 2: They have a FIU transfer coming in at linebacker, Travan Barnes.

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Speaker 2: He was I was betting on him on Tuday nights.

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Speaker 2: He has some of the most superb pass defense grades

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Speaker 2: out there. I think Baylor, at least when we have

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Speaker 2: all these question marks in the secondary, they did go

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Speaker 2: out and get a linebacker that can play excellent coverage

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Speaker 2: defense Auburn Week one. I've already bet that in the

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Speaker 2: action app. I have issues with Baylor's secondary. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: be tested right off the start. With Jackson Arnold and

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Speaker 2: those three wide receivers.

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Speaker 4: That's probably the best receiving group to play all year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. The reason why I'm hesitant on a Big twelve

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Speaker 2: number is not just that game, because that could shift

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Speaker 2: the market. But remember it's not so much that game

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Speaker 2: because while they play that game, Iowa State and Kansas

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Speaker 2: State's already in the can and one of those teams

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Speaker 2: is going to win that game, and one of those

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Speaker 2: teams is going to be the favorite in the Big

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Speaker 2: twelve because each of them is then going to have

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Speaker 2: like only four road games left. Whoever was at Kansastate.

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Speaker 2: I always say game should be at the pole position

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Speaker 2: of the updated Big twelve odds, So I'm not saying

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Speaker 2: Baylor's number can get any better. After losing the Auburn,

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Speaker 2: but it could go down a little bit. From a

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Speaker 2: Big Twelve perspective, you know the road games. You already

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Speaker 2: mentioned one of the best road slates you could have

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Speaker 2: in the Big Twelve. So I do like Baylor, but

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Speaker 2: I think we need Iowa State and Kansas State to

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Speaker 2: play each other the odds to shift in the Big Twelve,

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Speaker 2: and we need Baylor to get their ass kicked by

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Speaker 2: Auburn in the first weekend and we might get a

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Speaker 2: better number on them overall.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what I'm trying to figure out. Baylor is

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Speaker 4: my ass right now, and I pick to win it.

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Speaker 4: Gonna wait. I want to see if they survived those

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Speaker 4: first two weeks without injuries the rest of the camp.

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Speaker 4: I don't think it's gonna get much better between now

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Speaker 4: and then. But from a power rating perspective, I have

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Speaker 4: like less than a point separating the top four in

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Speaker 4: this league, but like every team is like six to

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Speaker 4: seven to one. But yeah, I'm trying to figure it

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Speaker 4: out from a time for second, but I do want

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Speaker 4: to see how this defense comes together. Special teams worth

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Speaker 4: noting they should be elite, but kicker definitely something I'm watching.

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Speaker 4: You might have a freshman kicker and some close games.

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Speaker 4: You know, there's gonna be close games in the Big

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Speaker 4: Twelve that could be noteworthy. Let's move on to Utah.

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Speaker 1: The Utah Utes?

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Speaker 2: Did you say Ute?

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Speaker 4: Just a disastrous year for the Utes. Everything went wrong

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Speaker 4: Murphy's law and effect. They went one in five and

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Speaker 4: one possession games, did not finish eligible for a bowl,

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Speaker 4: finished at five and seven. There was injuries all over

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Speaker 4: the place, and the offense was just bad. It was

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Speaker 4: the peak of Cam rising news and is he available?

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Speaker 4: Is he not? And it just was a disastrous year

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Speaker 4: for Utahs. So what did they do? They went out

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Speaker 4: and they brought in Devin Dampier at quarterback. They also

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Speaker 4: brought in his offensive coordinator back who's going to install

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Speaker 4: a spread option here? Still gonna be run heavy, like

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Speaker 4: fifty five percent run based on historical splits, but there's

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Speaker 4: gonna be a little bit more tempo quarterback run. The

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Speaker 4: question with damp yere is Kenny throw consistently and stay

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Speaker 4: healthy for a full season. That's definitely a concern I

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Speaker 4: have because it's a lot easier. You know, this isn't

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Speaker 4: the SEC, but it's the Big twelve, big step up

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Speaker 4: in competition. He was only fifty eight percent completion percentage

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Speaker 4: twelve interceptions last year. His best asset of his legs.

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Speaker 4: Can he utilize them to his fullest and stay healthy

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Speaker 4: all year. They do lose, you know, some skill position talent,

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Speaker 4: including their running back Bernard, but they bring in some

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Speaker 4: guys in the backfield who I think can be good

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Speaker 4: in this offense, including Parker from Washington State and a

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Speaker 4: New Mexico transfer obviously knows this offense. The offensive line

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Speaker 4: arguably the best in the country. You have sixty eight

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Speaker 4: hundred snaps back two potential first round picks at tackle

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Speaker 4: this offense.

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Speaker 2: I lost Joe Moore, Ward straw Poles already pointing to Utah.

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Speaker 4: I do have major questions about the wide receiver room.

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Speaker 4: You know, you bring in some guys who just don't

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Speaker 4: wow me. I mean, they lost singer last from last

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Speaker 4: season to the NFL. They lost Parks and who was

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Speaker 4: going to be their number one they lost in the

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Speaker 4: offseason to USC. Wide receiver room a big question mark

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Speaker 4: for me. As far as the defense, they need some

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Speaker 4: depth guys to step up on the defensive line. I

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Speaker 4: actually do have some questions there, but he kind of

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Speaker 4: there's only I think thirty career starts in the defensive line.

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Speaker 4: Generally speaking, you do trust Morgan Scalley to figure out

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Speaker 4: the Utah defensive line and they'll probably find some guys.

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Speaker 4: But my main question is here Dampier health and his

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Speaker 4: effectiveness as a passer, and then also how does that

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Speaker 4: wide receiver room come together. And then on the defensive side,

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Speaker 4: some of those deep guys got to step up. Very

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Speaker 4: interesting teams. Should be a big bounce back season for Utah,

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Speaker 4: even though it's a bit of a rebuild on the

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Speaker 4: defense and the skill positions. From a scheduling perspective, they

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Speaker 4: do have five Big twelve home games, fairly easy non

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Speaker 4: conference schedule, especially compared to Baylor. They do have two

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Speaker 4: road games, but they're at UCLA at Wyoming and then

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Speaker 4: they host cal Poly. A conference perspective, they play a

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Speaker 4: lot of the top teams, but they host them all.

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Speaker 4: They only face one of the top seven on the road,

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Speaker 4: and that is Baylor late in the season. There are

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Speaker 4: other Big twelve road games West Virginia, Kansas and BYU

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Speaker 4: in the Holy War, so not terrible in that perspective.

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Speaker 4: Utah I project seven point eight four best win total

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Speaker 4: you can find out there. You can either go over

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Speaker 4: seven and a half minus one sixty five or over

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Speaker 4: eight and a half at plus money. So you're looking

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Speaker 4: right around eight. Is there projected win total? Best you

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Speaker 4: can find on the win the league is six to one.

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Speaker 4: What are you seeing with the utes?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, my win total is eight point eight, so you

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Speaker 2: can definitely say I'm in the boat of I love Utah.

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Speaker 2: One of the first plays I put in the app

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Speaker 2: earlier this year was Utah's opening game against UCLA, which

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Speaker 2: was either a pick or minus one at some places,

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Speaker 2: and hopped on that because good luck Nico Iam Maleava

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Speaker 2: with Scalley's four two five. We'll start on the offensive

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Speaker 2: side first. Now, yeah, we have a lot of questions,

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Speaker 2: but you know what, we've also had two to three

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Speaker 2: years of cam rising, mystery, let injuries, mystery playing time,

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Speaker 2: and we don't have to worry about that anymore. Now.

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Speaker 2: It's literally maybe an injury that happens on the field

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Speaker 2: that we can see that would keep Devin Dampier out,

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Speaker 2: But his offensive coordinator, Jason Beck coming with him from

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Speaker 2: New Mexico, is going to be electric when it comes

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Speaker 2: to what the Utes have seen on the offensive side

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Speaker 2: of the football. I mean, remember, we've had to pull

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Speaker 2: defensive backs to come and play running back for the offense.

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Speaker 2: Here it's been we've had pig farmers. I mean, this

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Speaker 2: has been a bare bones offense for so long. Now

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Speaker 2: you're getting a quarterback that created a mistackle on thirty

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Speaker 2: four percent of his one hundred and sixty carries at

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Speaker 2: New Mexico. I get the competition, but that's almost a

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Speaker 2: rate of Ashon gent Last year, Ashon genty forty percent

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Speaker 2: created a mistackle per his carries at Boise State. Last

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Speaker 2: year you're mentioned Waishlon Parker coming in from running back

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Speaker 2: from Wazoo. Twenty explosives runs averaged three and a half

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Speaker 2: yards after first contact, So not only can he burst,

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Speaker 2: but once he gets touched, he can still joke a

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Speaker 2: little bit and get rid of guys. Now, damp Pire

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Speaker 2: does get his multi use weapon from New Mexico. You

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Speaker 2: mentioned it, Ryan Davis. He had one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: snaps in the slot and from the white out position,

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Speaker 2: so he can really line up anywhere and hopefully plug

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Speaker 2: some holes up where we might have some empty things

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Speaker 2: in the cupboard wide receiver for Utah he had two

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Speaker 2: point one yards per out run. That is just above

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Speaker 2: being explosive. His a dot his average Jeff, the target

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Speaker 2: was at least twelve yards. So this this is Dan

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Speaker 2: Pierre's warm blanket at night that he is covering up with.

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Speaker 2: It came with him on the other side of the ball.

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Speaker 2: I don't have as many questions or concerned. I love

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Speaker 2: the four to five, the best front six, and all

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Speaker 2: of the big twelve. You know, their linebacker Lander Martin

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Speaker 2: comes back with three tackles for loss and a couple

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Speaker 2: of sacks. You know, they got their nickel position back,

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Speaker 2: which is extremely important to them. They were top twenty

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 4: And last year the do he had no help from

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Speaker 4: the offense. If you can get help from the offense,

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Speaker 4: you know, even they're gonna use more tempo, can have

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Speaker 4: the ball more. Yeah, that'll help their defense as well.

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Speaker 4: My questions are more with Dan pier I'm not as high.

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Speaker 2: Yeah as others. There are advantages in this schedule. You

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Speaker 2: want to talk about an advantage against Kansas State. On

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Speaker 2: November twenty second, the weekend before Thanksgiving, Kansas State will

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Speaker 2: be on back to back road travel there. Their bye

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Speaker 2: weeks fell into two places against some of the top

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Speaker 2: tier echelon teams, and I will trust this coaching staff

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Speaker 2: with extra time anytime. So the bet I do like

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Speaker 2: the over. If you want to play it that way,

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Speaker 2: that's fine. The bet for me is plus two to

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Speaker 2: eighty to make the Big Twelve championship game. I love

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Speaker 2: the tiebreaker situation and I've been a Devin dam Pier

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Speaker 2: lover since last year, so I'm ready to go plus

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Speaker 2: two eighty to make the championship game.

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Speaker 4: All right, Let's move on to Iowa State, who has

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Speaker 4: been very consistent in the Big Twelve. They finished in

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Speaker 4: the top four in seven of the past eight years.

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Speaker 1: The Iowa State Cyclones.

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Speaker 4: This is a team that relies on development. It's not

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Speaker 4: a team with a ton of money, and it's gonna

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Speaker 4: be Matt Campbell and this defense that's going to try

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Speaker 4: to keep them in games with their three to three

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Speaker 4: five dimes stack. And the one thing I will mention

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Speaker 4: with Iowa State though, and that three three five, is

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Speaker 4: you're seeing that more and more Big twelve. Specifically, there's

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Speaker 4: a couple highers we'll talk about that are implementing that.

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Speaker 4: Cincinnati implemented that last season with a defensive coordinator who

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Speaker 4: has Iowa State roots, So that advantage right of oh

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Speaker 4: this defense, we can shut down Big twelve teams becoming

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Speaker 4: more familiar with it and know how to attack it.

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Speaker 2: Although they it was the Big twelve buster right for

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Speaker 2: so long it was how you had to attack the offenses.

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Speaker 4: It was the spreadbuster for sure. Iowa State did get

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Speaker 4: to the Big twelve title game last year and lost

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Speaker 4: to Arizona State. They won a program record eleven games

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Speaker 4: despite thirteen starters missing at least a start, so it

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Speaker 4: was a very successful season. But they did finish five

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Speaker 4: to one in one possession games there, plus nine and

345
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Speaker 4: turnovers might be some aggression on the horizon. Rocobeck is

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Speaker 4: back at quarterback. The biggest question with them their running

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Speaker 4: backs are back. The biggest question for me their tight

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Speaker 4: ends or they lose their best blocker there. The biggest

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Speaker 4: question is twofold for me. On the offense wide receiver,

350
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Speaker 4: you lose two thousand yard receivers to the NFL. They

351
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Speaker 4: were one of only two teams to have two one

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Speaker 4: thousand yard receivers last year. The other was Ohio State,

353
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Speaker 4: who played more games than anyone and Google got to

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Speaker 4: like one thy and thirteen in the final game, so

355
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Speaker 4: that's impressive. Receivers that get to one thousand plus yards,

356
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Speaker 4: they're gonna be messed. They bring in transfers to try

357
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Speaker 4: to address it. Townsend from UCF, will Man, the slot

358
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:13,800
Speaker 4: chase so well from ECU. Jackson's back from injury. Big

359
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Speaker 4: step down for this wide receiver room. The offensive line

360
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 4: is also a major issue for me. You lose your

361
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Speaker 4: center and left tackle to the NFL, so I'm really

362
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Speaker 4: really concerned about this offense. The defense, you lose four

363
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Speaker 4: of your top six and the secondary that was so

364
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Speaker 4: good last year. Three of them are on NFL rosters

365
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Speaker 4: and you lose both Frailer You're kind of the leader

366
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Speaker 4: in that star position, so this secondary could take a

367
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Speaker 4: big step back. So the defense to me as questions

368
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Speaker 4: as well. From a scheduling perspective, only four big twelve

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Speaker 4: home games and then the Neutrals against Kansas State in

370
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Speaker 4: Dublin to start off the year. They're big twelve road

371
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Speaker 4: games not bad Cincinnati, Colorado, Oklahoma State, TCU, so you

372
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Speaker 4: get a break there to stay won the scheduling. As

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Speaker 4: far as the top teams are concerned, Iowa State was

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Speaker 4: on the lucky side here. Look my numbers aren't terribly

375
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Speaker 4: far off from their projection. The best you could find

376
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Speaker 4: out there if you want to go under under seven

377
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,440
Speaker 4: and a half minus one twenty five is out there.

378
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Speaker 4: Caesars the best you can find to win the league.

379
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Speaker 4: They're definitely a step below the other. Six thirteen to

380
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Speaker 4: one is out there. No interest in that. For me,

381
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Speaker 4: I would lean under even I mean, I project like

382
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Speaker 4: seven point two, so like I'm kind of close to market.

383
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Speaker 4: But there's a lot of things I don't like about

384
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Speaker 4: this team I don't like. I also think they're going

385
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Speaker 4: to lose in Dublin. I certainly lean under here, have

386
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Speaker 4: no interest in them from a conference perspective. Too many questions.

387
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Speaker 2: I love Ioways State. I love that I am one

388
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Speaker 2: percent completely in. We started a year ago and all

389
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Speaker 2: we could talk about was Rock Obec's freshman season, how

390
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Speaker 2: amazing it was for a freshman that he had done

391
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Speaker 2: from TD from big time throws like his arm was insane.

392
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Speaker 2: His turn over worthy play rate actually moved from two

393
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Speaker 2: point six to three point six percent. It got worse

394
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Speaker 2: last year, and despite having the two best wide receivers

395
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Speaker 2: in the conference. Well that's because Iowa State football got

396
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Speaker 2: a little bit farther away from what they were generally doing,

397
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Speaker 2: what their whole monik or what their whole identity was.

398
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Speaker 2: They changed it because of Noel and Higgins, because they

399
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Speaker 2: had these outside weapons. Now forty eight tds and seventeen

400
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Speaker 2: interceptions into two years, I think rock Obec is ready

401
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 2: to cook and get back to what makes Iowa State

402
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: football so special on the offensive side, and what is

403
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 2: that massive tight ends that are healthy. And right now

404
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,239
Speaker 2: we've got three of them, both Gabe Berkele and the

405
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:43,679
Speaker 2: massive six foot seven, two point fifty plus Benjamin Brahmer.

406
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,359
Speaker 2: They both return it tight end. So Iowa State is

407
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Speaker 2: going back to the traditional twelve. You're gonna have tight

408
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 2: ends in motion, confusing the shit out of big twelve defenses.

409
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Speaker 2: The numbers at rock Obec put up his freshman year

410
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Speaker 2: when they were so stellar is that's exactly what they're

411
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Speaker 2: going to go back to here. And I expect Rock

412
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Speaker 2: go back to return to two point six turnover worthy

413
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 2: play rate because it's going to be a shorter passing game,

414
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Speaker 2: because it's going to get back to that Iowa State

415
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Speaker 2: Matt Campbell offense that they've already had.

416
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Speaker 4: That is like kind of the new wagers seeing this,

417
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 4: the NFL college teams that can utilize more tight ends,

418
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 4: more multi set back formations are going to start to

419
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,680
Speaker 4: have more success because this is a cat and mouse game.

420
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Speaker 4: But I'm just too worried about the offensive line.

421
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Speaker 2: I hear you on that, but there is an offensive

422
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Speaker 2: line that's going to have some a lot of shifts,

423
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 2: a lot of pulling guards, a lot of movement. We

424
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 2: are getting back to Iowa made Iowa State offense special

425
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 2: in the first place, and just a headache for defensive

426
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:41,880
Speaker 2: coordinators to defend stuck. You mentioned the linebacker corp coming back.

427
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Speaker 2: The one player that got knocked out last year where

428
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Speaker 2: we were considering like should we still be betting Iowa

429
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 2: State was kayleb Bacon. So kayleb Bacon is now back

430
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 2: after his twenty twenty four injury at twenty two pressures

431
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three, and then I think the edge

432
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Speaker 2: that you need to know probably make or break for

433
00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 2: this three man defensive line, as you to have pressure

434
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 2: from the edges, you got to have solid contained from

435
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 2: the edges. They went out and they got tomatoa McDonough

436
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 2: yale kid yeay Yale from three years and if you're

437
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 2: a WWE fan, TOMATOA. McDonough is the combination of two wrestlers,

438
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,120
Speaker 2: So that's actually kind of a fun thing to say.

439
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 2: The whole team just had seventeen sacks last season, like

440
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:22,120
Speaker 2: the havocs was gone from these guys. Pass rush not there,

441
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 2: So we're gonna see if they can get back to that.

442
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 2: They can make pressure with three. But you know, if

443
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 2: there's a worrying point for me supporting Iowa State, it

444
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 2: is TOMATOA. McDonough and his defensive line stabilizing that three

445
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,400
Speaker 2: man front so the back five can do their job.

446
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 2: I'm a big fan of Iowa State this year. From

447
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 2: the scheduling perspective, you play Kansas State Iowa State on

448
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 2: Week zero, but the inverse effect of that is you

449
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 2: get three by weeks during conference play.

450
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 4: For me, from a power any perspective I have when

451
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 4: we're talking just these top seven teams, I have Iowa

452
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 4: State like almost a field go behind. I'm the rest

453
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 4: of the group. And look, West Virginia was in at

454
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 4: the final weekend. I'm not saying they campion in it,

455
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 4: but I'm out quick plug Windy City Watch Party Week

456
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 4: zero in Chicago will be there. Producer Matt Mitchell will

457
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 4: be there, Duck will be there, Breeze Kerner and Raybaud

458
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 4: will be doing like a fantasy event. We'll have like

459
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 4: a live NFL Fantasy draft later in the day with prizes,

460
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 4: and that'll be fun. Joe's on Weed Chicago. They're amazing

461
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 4: known with the RSCP. Just show up, all right, Let's

462
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 4: move on to the team that Iowa State lost to

463
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 4: in the Big twelve championship game. Maybe a bit of

464
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 4: disrespect by me not leading off with Arizona State, but

465
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 4: let's talk about those Arizona State sun Devils.

466
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: The Arizona State sun Devils. Yeah, I'm only out here

467
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 1: right now, right, don't get fined, That's all I gotta say,

468
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 1: because that was ridiculous.

469
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 4: Win total best you can find over eight and a half,

470
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 4: even money bet you can find to win the league

471
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,239
Speaker 4: six to one. They're right in that range with all

472
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 4: the other top teams. Arizona State had an amazing out

473
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 4: of nowhere year last year. They did get a bit lucky,

474
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 4: I mean when they won six and one in one

475
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 4: possion games during the regular season plus fourteen turnovers. So

476
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 4: some of the regression flashers go on there, but they're

477
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 4: basically running it back from last year. We'll talk about

478
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 4: experience seventeen ish for turning starters their top five, I

479
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,360
Speaker 4: think number two in returning production. The offense, you lose

480
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 4: a couple of receivers, the Tyson your stars back. The

481
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 4: biggest question on offense. Can Scatago you lose? He was

482
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 4: the heart and soul of your team. He ran for

483
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 4: over seventeen hundred yards. He was the number two receiver

484
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 4: on the team. So you bring both Browns back. I

485
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 4: think one of the Browns is probably gonna be the starter.

486
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 4: You add Udo from Army, It's probably be more of

487
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 4: a committee approach. How much was cam Worth? That's the question,

488
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 4: Like not obviously he was good out of the backfield.

489
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 4: He was an amazing runner. He break so many tackles.

490
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 4: But he's also like the heart and soul of the team.

491
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 4: How much of an impact will his loss bees definitely

492
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 4: question on the offense, center position, that interior, the offensive line.

493
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 4: I'm watching as well. But Sam Levitt he's back, and

494
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 4: then Tyson. I think a number two wide receiver like

495
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 4: someone emerging there would really help. But the offense should

496
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 4: be fine. The defense again, run it all back. The

497
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 4: only guy they really lose on defense is an important

498
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 4: one is their nickelback Simmons. I thought he was very underrated.

499
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,479
Speaker 4: They had a nickel back from Guests where Perdue they

500
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 4: like breed love all these teams is goet love of

501
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 4: Perdue guy. But everyone's back in the secondary, which should

502
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 4: be really strong. Guess what for depth? They added a

503
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 4: cornerback from Perdue. So their special teams last year were

504
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:46,719
Speaker 4: disaster disaster. They were not like what. They couldn't kick

505
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 4: a field goal. They had a true freshman punter last year.

506
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:51,719
Speaker 4: They should be better and they added this kid Gomes

507
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 4: from Eastern Michigan, who I like to kick for them.

508
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 4: Remember this team last year they lost two games in

509
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 4: the regular season, one of them, Levit didn't play, and

510
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 4: they're the He's obviously got to stay healthy otherwise you're

511
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 4: going to the Sims experience again. But this team's loaded

512
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 4: for with experience and they have a lot of depth

513
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 4: back too, like depth experience depth. So yeah, from a

514
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 4: scheduling perspective, they play five of the other top six,

515
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 4: which isn't great. You have five big twelve home games,

516
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 4: but this is a tough road slate. They have Utah,

517
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 4: Iowa State, Baylor. I think Colorado, which is never easy

518
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 4: to play on the road, that's a tough Big twelve

519
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 4: road slate. They do avoid Kansas State from the top,

520
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:37,919
Speaker 4: but get everybody else. I project them eight point six.

521
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 4: Nothing for me, I know which is in back them

522
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 4: six to one to win the Big twelve. I'll tell

523
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 4: you that, what are you seeing with the sun Devils?

524
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 2: I think the big question is I mean, as much

525
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 2: as we can talk about all the returning production coming back,

526
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 2: we have to ask how big was cam s Kataboo

527
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 2: to this offense? How big was he to Kenny Dillingham's

528
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 2: and Marcus Arroyo's entire offensive philosophy. I would argue to say,

529
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 2: he's worth everything. They changed that offense over the year

530
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 2: to completely revolve around him. You know, from a numbers perspective,

531
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 2: eighteen percent of the receiving yards were his, sixty five

532
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 2: percent of the rushing yards were his. And I think

533
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 2: you have to ask yourself, is that the offense that's

534
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 2: going to get run this year? No Kanye Udo from

535
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,880
Speaker 2: Army was targeted once out of the backfield by Army

536
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 2: quarterbacks last year. We don't know if Kanye Udo even

537
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: has a set of hands two targets in his entire

538
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 2: college career. It's now we do have some explosives. We

539
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 2: have some fireworks here. I mean, Jordan Tyson lined up

540
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 2: as much as slot as wide out. He could play

541
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 2: both positions. Three yards per route run. That is massively explosive.

542
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 2: And Sam Levitt really advanced in his numbers. Thirteen big

543
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: time throws, only five turnover worthy plays. I don't have

544
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 2: questions about the explosiveness of this offense, and I don't

545
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 2: have questions about Kanye Udo running the ball. But what

546
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 2: made Arizona State so successful last year is the abuse

547
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 2: of outside and inside linebackers on dump into camscataboo. You

548
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 2: watch the highlight reel in the biggest plays, just.

549
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 4: The affected that over the course of the game.

550
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, because then all of a sudden, it's kind of like,

551
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: you know, like in a college basketball game, you got

552
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 2: a shooter and he's getting double teamed in the post

553
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 2: or whatever. Like they, I mean, Cam was being watched

554
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 2: by all eyes at all times. So does Jordan Tyson

555
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 2: go and get double covered the Sam Levitt like that?

556
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 2: If Kanye Udo is not in the passing game, what

557
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 2: does that do for the other targets on the field,

558
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 2: so that you know, just theoretically, That's where my head

559
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 2: is with Arizona State's offense and how they get there. Like,

560
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 2: I think it's going to change. I think there's four

561
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 2: games on this schedule that are just too tough to win.

562
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 2: I mean, you're going to Ames, right, You're going to Utah,

563
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 2: They're going to be off a bye, You're going to Waco.

564
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 2: I'm not sure Mississippi State is a win. I'm not

565
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 2: really sure that's an easy win. I mean, I know

566
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 2: I project this like six and a half, but I

567
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 2: mean you're still going down to listen to cow bells

568
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 2: for four hours. Maybe you get the Jefferson Pilot eleven

569
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 2: am spot right. I don't think that Mississippi State game

570
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 2: is the easiest. So I'm going on eight and a

571
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 2: half here.

572
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 4: If I had do I'd go under. But I'm my

573
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 4: number six pass. All right, Let's move on to Kansas State.

574
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 1: The Kansas State Wildcats.

575
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 4: Last year disappointing year. I mean, they should have been better.

576
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 4: They all gained twelve of their thirteen opponents, ended up

577
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 4: finishing eight and four in the regular season. They are

578
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 4: win total. You're looking at best. You can find out

579
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 4: there over eight and a half even money or over

580
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 4: eight and a half minus one ten. That's Caesar six

581
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 4: to one. You're right in that range with everyone else.

582
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 4: Avid Johnson's back at quarterback. He's got to be better.

583
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 4: He's got to be more consistent. He's got to improve

584
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 4: his footwork. He's got to stay healthy too. But can

585
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 4: he take that next step? And Kenny's he's best when

586
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 4: he can move, when he can use his legs, it's

587
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 4: an electric runner. He's got to improve his footwork when

588
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 4: he's passing. Just a consistency there. But he also has

589
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 4: to stay healthy. We saw him get banged up last year.

590
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 4: Because if he's not running, then he's not gonna be

591
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 4: no anywhere close to the caliber player that he can

592
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 4: be running back. You if Edward's taking over for Giddons,

593
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 4: can he carry the line share? Can you beat that

594
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 4: workhorse back? That's certainly a question wide receiver. You lose

595
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 4: everybody except Brown, which I think is fine. But guess

596
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 4: what they added a Purdue transfer who they are counting

597
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:17,239
Speaker 4: on the offensive line. Last year was so good. They

598
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 4: really came together. They were elite. Now they lose their

599
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 4: offensive line coach, and they lose three starters, so there's

600
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 4: definitely some questions here. They're counting on this kid, Fitzpatrick

601
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 4: to start from Ohio State, but he had like a

602
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 4: medical issue and he's still on the sidelines. I don't

603
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 4: know what the deal is there. You lose Mott, your

604
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 4: best pass rusher. This is what I'm really worried about

605
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 4: because I like their linebackers, but if they're not getting

606
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 4: the same amount of pressure their secondary, which wasn't great

607
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 4: last year. I have to say they blew a lot

608
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 4: of coverages, but three of those guys are on NFL rosters.

609
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 4: You lose both your corners, you lose one of your

610
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 4: safeties and your nickelback as well. Two of those guys

611
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 4: are on NFL rosters, and who a couple of the

612
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 4: guys you added are dealing with injuries. The team might

613
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 4: be shifting the more forman fronts. I think the run

614
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 4: deal still be good, but I'm worried about the past

615
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 4: d So how much can Avery Johnson elevate this team?

616
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 4: What are you saying with the Wildcats?

617
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 2: I think it's troubling when you have a quarterback that

618
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 2: is one hundred and ninety pounds when he's wet and

619
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 2: wearing eight layers of clothes. I love Avery Johnson. He's

620
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 2: a highlight reel and it's fun to watch. But his

621
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 2: size and his style is not good for this team

622
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: and what they want to do. And when you have

623
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 2: an offensive line that is trying to backfill portal and

624
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 2: has a lot of questions and injury concerns, that could

625
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 2: be a bad combination. And you know, they brought in

626
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: Matt Wells to be the quarterback coach for Avery Johnson

627
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 2: the OC now. But my focus on the offense was

628
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 2: completely about this offensive line. Center Sam Heck ranked eighty

629
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 2: ninth in PFF of all centers that played at his position.

630
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 2: That's not great. Leftguard Taylor Poitier one hundred and forty

631
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 2: first of all guards, blindsigeh tackle George Fitzpatrick just he

632
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 2: couldn't get on the field in three years at Ohio State.

633
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 2: He just couldn't get on the field. I mean, it's

634
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 2: not saying he's bad. He just couldn't get on the field,

635
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 2: you know. And Johnson had just one more big time

636
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 2: throw than turnover worthy play and when he has a

637
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 2: pressured pocket, this is what's important. When you've seen these

638
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 2: offensive lines that aren't grading out well and they're trying

639
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: to put them all together and play together. You need

640
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:19,479
Speaker 2: to go look at your quarterback and what they do

641
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: in a crowded pocket. Avery Johnson was two big time

642
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 2: throws and seven turnover worthy plays. Those are freshman numbers

643
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 2: and we needed him to advance and he just hasn't

644
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 2: happened yet. So I know there was this push for

645
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 2: Avery Johnson heisman last year, and I still kind of

646
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 2: sat back and I was like, you know, a, this

647
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: is Kansas State because they don't feature like heavy passing attacks.

648
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 2: Be his size in the style of Kansas State wants

649
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 2: to play, is really not that good of a fit

650
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 2: offensive wise. I'm definitely out here.

651
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 4: Special teams also potential concern You're gonna have either a

652
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 4: new freshman kicker or juco, So there's there's definitely some

653
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 4: questions there. Yeatt Wells takes over his offensive coordinator. Actually

654
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 4: the lake is that to fit with Johnson, but he

655
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 4: just he's got to become a better pass there and

656
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 4: I just haven't seen it consistently enough. Well.

657
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 2: His style of play is to get out and make

658
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 2: shit happen, and that can't work when you're one hundred

659
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 2: and ninety pounds and you've got an offensive line that's

660
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 2: going to allow that pressure to come to you without

661
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 2: even sticking their blocks. So I focus on the win total.

662
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 2: I make it eight point nine, so I'm actually over

663
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 2: the eight and a half. I just don't like where

664
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 2: we're heading. I don't think Kansas State can win the

665
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 2: Big Twelve. The NO number is way too juiced. The

666
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 2: no on the playoff is way to juice, right, I've bet.

667
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 4: Eight point five to seven, so passed for me, but

668
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 4: no interest in Big twelve. Let's move on to Texas Tech.

669
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 1: That Texas Tech red Raiders guns up.

670
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 4: So when you look at these top sevent teams, we're

671
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 4: going to cover recruiting, and they're all like around fortieth nationally,

672
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 4: fortieth fiftieth, portal fortieth fiftieth. One exception is TCU, which

673
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 4: is where recruits the best in the Big twelve, like

674
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 4: at a top twenty five level. Not a leadeal leape,

675
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 4: but better than that's I think three years in a row.

676
00:33:57,920 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 2: Yeah.

677
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 4: One exception from the portal is Texas Tech. They are

678
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 4: they had the second best portal class in the entire country.

679
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:13,280
Speaker 4: The next best was probably Utah I now Colorado. Colorado

680
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 4: did the top twenty five, but by far the best

681
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 4: portal class in the Big twelve. How to contextualize that,

682
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 4: They signed thirteen four stars in the portal. The rest

683
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 4: of the Big twelve signed twelve combined, so they signed

684
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 4: more four stars than the rest of the Big twelve

685
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 4: in the portal a lot. So last year they went

686
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 4: eight and four in the regular season, six and one

687
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 4: and one possession games. They are also, by the way

688
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 4: top ten and returning production, so there's a reason everyone

689
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 4: loves this team. Morton is back at quarterback. He had

690
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 4: off season soldier surgery. We'll see if he can stay healthy.

691
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 4: Hammond got all the spring raps. They're fairly comfortable with

692
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 4: him as the backup, but Morton gives them the best upside.

693
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 4: They do lose a you know, fifteen hundrey yard back

694
00:34:58,000 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 4: to the NFL and a thousand yard receiver, but Join

695
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 4: comes in from UFC in the backfield, and then they

696
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 4: just add a ton of wide receivers. They lose a

697
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 4: tight end of the NFL, but they add to their

698
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 4: any position of need they added to. I'm a bit

699
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 4: worried about the offensive line. You know, they lose their

700
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:19,840
Speaker 4: stud right tackle, which I think is the biggest question

701
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 4: because now there's a bunch of guys that are dealing

702
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,919
Speaker 4: with injuries like Zambrano he was out of last year,

703
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 4: Scurry was out last year with the injury. There's still hurt.

704
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 4: So you might have a freshman right tackle. That's the

705
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 4: position for me to watch. You know. You bring in

706
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 4: Jado's from Iam of Ohio. He played tackle on my Ohio.

707
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 4: I think he's gonna play guard here. So there's there's

708
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 4: a couple of things to watch. The offensive line, but

709
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 4: this offense should be good sexist tech as long as

710
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 4: Morton is healthy. The defensive line is probably one of

711
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 4: the most improved units in the Big twelve. Lose a

712
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 4: couple guys that are meant, but they add Hunter from UCF,

713
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 4: Gil Howard from NIU, Height from Georgia Tech, big upgrade.

714
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 4: A lot of these guys.

715
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 2: All was an animal. You see it.

716
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love Gil Howard and you we'll see how

717
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,399
Speaker 4: he trans translates. But Height was awesome at g Tech.

718
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 4: Poems from Houston, big big upgrade. You're probably gonna afoord

719
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 4: transfers starting. So this defensive line major upgrade. Linebacker extremely experienced.

720
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 4: Rodriguez and Roberts are back, all of your Nickels are back.

721
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 4: The secondary was not great last year, and you lose

722
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 4: a cornerback to the NFL, and one of your safeties

723
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 4: will miss the year. He's gonna red shirt with an injury.

724
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 4: So you bring in a ton of transfers. I like

725
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 4: the kid Balfour out of Charlotte. We'll see how he translates.

726
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 4: But and then Wesnwski I think was the big get

727
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 4: the North Dakota State transfer. He was probably one of

728
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 4: the best defenders at the FCS level. So there's I

729
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 4: think they probably upgraded and talent. We'll see how it

730
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 4: comes together. Their special teams have been elite three years

731
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 4: in a row. They do lose a field goal kicker,

732
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 4: their kioff man, and a kick returner. They had the

733
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 4: Buffalo kicker who was pretty good year, But we'll see

734
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 4: if the special teams can maintain that level of excellence.

735
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 4: They also bring in two new coordinators. Leftwich mac Lefwich

736
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 4: comes in from Texas State Air Ray Guy is a

737
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:16,720
Speaker 4: you know Morris Leech background. New defensive coordinator shield Wood.

738
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 4: We both really like. I thought they did really good

739
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 4: hires there. Their development has been pretty iffy under Joey Maguire, who, like,

740
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 4: I don't know, I'm still not in love with them

741
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 4: as a head coach. They've struggled on the road. They'll

742
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 4: like and just developing some of these guys, and they'll

743
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 4: like drop a rogame like remember they lost that got

744
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:39,879
Speaker 4: Wyoming so that they always scare me on the road.

745
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 2: Now.

746
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 4: The good thing is they're scheduled to open the years

747
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 4: Pine Bluff, Kent State, Oregon State at home before going

748
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 4: to Utah, so there's no like tricky road non conference

749
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 4: games to worry about. Their strength of schedule is what

750
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 4: seventieth I have the easiest overall schedule, mainly because of

751
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 4: that soft They do only get four Big twelve home games,

752
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 4: so maybe those road wos show up in conference play.

753
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 4: They are five Big twelve road games Utah, Arizona State,

754
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 4: Kansas State, Houston, West Virginia. Not easy. Nope, do avoid Baylor, TCU,

755
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 4: and Iowa State. I'm assuming they go seven and zero

756
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 4: at home like their home games. Mentioned that oncon you

757
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 4: got Kansas, Oak State, EYU, UCF, that's like their floor.

758
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 4: What they do on the road is going to determine

759
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 4: whether or not. Texas Tech gets to the Big Twelve

760
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 4: championship game. But they went out and they spent at

761
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 4: the Mattador Club. They got money, I mean you're talking

762
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 4: like a quarter billion facility upgrades. But the deep line

763
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 4: transfers I think were the biggest news. They couldn't get

764
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 4: pressure last year. That'll help their secondary a lot. There's

765
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 4: still some questions here. The team has all the talent,

766
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 4: might be getting a little bit too much hype. What

767
00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 4: say you, does this not.

768
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 2: Feel like Old Miss? Like, I mean, the hight train

769
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 2: started five months ago and the money's flowing through and

770
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 2: now we're national. The people around there are thinking national chair.

771
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 2: I mean it feels like.

772
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 4: Old Yeah, it sounds it feels exactly like Old Miss.

773
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 4: But they do have a little bit more returning experience

774
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 4: something like than Old Miss. And it is the Big Twelve,

775
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 4: so maybe it's a little easier to do this in

776
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:22,760
Speaker 4: the Big Twelve. But like, it wasn't the greatest transfer class,

777
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 4: Like the transfer portal wasn't as good as it was

778
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 4: a couple of years ago. But from a town, you

779
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 4: can't argue with the talent that they brought in. But

780
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 4: you got to assemble it it's got to come together now.

781
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 4: The good thing is to have some returning production, as

782
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 4: you know, top ten in the country. But yeah, I

783
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 4: think they're getting a little bit too much.

784
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:43,919
Speaker 2: Well, it's definitely inflated. We'll just start there, right. I mean,

785
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 2: there's a couple of if this and if that, And

786
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 2: the first if is Baron Morton and can you stay healthy?

787
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if the kid can. I mean right

788
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 2: behind him, Will Hammond came in with pretty high, you know, recruiting,

789
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 2: a pretty high recruiting rating behind him, So we'll see

790
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 2: as a rech refreshment if he needs to step in

791
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 2: for Baron Morton, but generally always been a quarterback here

792
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 2: to back up and let Baron, like you know, go

793
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,240
Speaker 2: nurse an injury. We'll see if that comes out again.

794
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 2: Twenty one commits and the portal thirteen of them being

795
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 2: four stars, just blew the big twelve away these aile

796
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 2: budgets and Baron Morton lowered his turnover worthy player rate

797
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 2: from four point four percent down to two point eight

798
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 2: percent last year while improving his on target up to

799
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 2: fifty fifth in the nation. He's getting more accurate, he's

800
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 2: making less mistakes. He needs to be have a clean

801
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 2: bill of health every Saturday. Caleb Douglass two yards per

802
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 2: route run. Coy Eakin returns to the wide receiver group,

803
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 2: both wide outs, the portal cash on Reggie Virgil two

804
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 2: point two yards per route run from Miamo, Ohio. They

805
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 2: got Juco Guys, Matt Guy's acc players for the offensive line.

806
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,879
Speaker 2: They're coming into one hundred and thirty career starts, one

807
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 2: of the highest in the nation. And shield Wood is

808
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 2: a defensive coordinator I think is one of the best

809
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 2: hires of any coordinator out there. I don't think it's

810
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 2: being talked about enough. It's going to be a three

811
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,439
Speaker 2: to four hybrid defense. It's going to have multiple looks.

812
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 2: You're gonna see standing up ends, You're going to see

813
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 2: a lot of packet, hidden blitz packages. The defensive line

814
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,720
Speaker 2: probably the best in the Big twelve. Linebackers Ben Roberts

815
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: and Jago rud Riegers is a top two returning tacklers

816
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 2: two hundred and nine combined, and edge David Bailey from Stanford,

817
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 2: like I know, not a lot of people got a

818
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,479
Speaker 2: lot of Stanford football in last year, but he brings

819
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:18,280
Speaker 2: a lot of sacks and Lee Hunter like I said,

820
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 2: you couldn't find somebody to plug the a gaps better

821
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:22,319
Speaker 2: than what Lee Hunter did for UCF. So I have

822
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 2: no questions about the talent. But why does Texas Tech

823
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 2: consistently a seven to eight win team and ended up

824
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 2: in the Liberty Bowl right? And I think they might

825
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 2: have shortened that up. From a defensive perspective, I do

826
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 2: believe in sheil Wood. From a coaching perspective. We'll see

827
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 2: what Mack Leftwich is gonna do. The five conference road games,

828
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 2: really that all could be tie breakers Utah, Kansas State,

829
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 2: Arizona State, all of those being on the road does

830
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 2: not make that any easier. At Houston is not a

831
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 2: gimme at all. Like I know, Texas Tech's coming in

832
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 2: off of a bye, but I don't think Houston is

833
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 2: a pushover. We'll get to them in a little while.

834
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 2: But if you look at Joey McGuire, how is he

835
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 2: in Lubbock versus winn He's now just keep that in

836
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 2: mind because all of our tough road games here are

837
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 2: away from Lubbock. If you go into his three years

838
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 2: fifteen and five at all six and ten straight up

839
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 2: on the road, I know it's a different team. Those

840
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:13,920
Speaker 2: different coaches, those different players. I know there's nil budget,

841
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:17,239
Speaker 2: I get it, but the road has not been good

842
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:19,760
Speaker 2: to Joey Maguire's staffs, and you're gonna have to produce

843
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 2: on the road this year. I'm gonna go under eight

844
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,280
Speaker 2: and a half. I make it eight on the dot.

845
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 2: I think it's time to fire because it's plus one

846
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 2: twenty on the under eight and a half and I

847
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 2: make it eight on the dot.

848
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 4: Texas Tech. Yeah, the best you could find six to

849
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 4: one to win the conference at DK over eight and

850
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 4: a half. If you want to go over's minus one forty.

851
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 4: I'm close to nine.

852
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 2: You're gonna have to win the big ones on the road,

853
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 2: and I don't. I'm not there with them.

854
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know. Six to one, No thanks, but

855
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 4: I'm close to market. All right, let's move on. Let's

856
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 4: finish up with TCU.

857
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 1: The TCU Horned Frogs TCU.

858
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 4: Best number you can find out there to win the

859
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 4: Big twelve. He could find a nine to one out

860
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 4: there at Caesars. If you want to go over, you

861
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,320
Speaker 4: can go over six and a half minus one sixty.

862
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 4: It's not a variation of the price, so you can

863
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 4: go over seven minus one to twenty five at CIRCA.

864
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 4: When you look at TCU, they did lose a lot.

865
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 4: They've been recruiting really well. They're just like building and

866
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:21,439
Speaker 4: developing this team under Sunny Dykes, and they're not really

867
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,240
Speaker 4: going out in the portal and getting a ton of guys.

868
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 4: He likes his roster this year, but they did lose

869
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 4: some key players. Josh Hoover's back a quarterback. Remember he

870
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:31,879
Speaker 4: was hurting the spring last year. This is his first

871
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 4: full year with Brile's first full offseason. I like some

872
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 4: of the things I saw from Hoover last year, but

873
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:40,280
Speaker 4: he's got to make do without his top three receivers,

874
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 4: who are now all on NFL rosters. Yacallister's got to

875
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 4: be that guy to step up. He's got to be

876
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 4: the alpha. You lose an tight end of the NFL

877
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 4: offensive line wise, you lose your center to Miami, you

878
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 4: lose your left tackle. You do get a left guard

879
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 4: back from injury, your freshman left tackle, Hughes. I think

880
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 4: he's Keith the key to the offensive line. Talented kid.

881
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 4: Can he hold that position down? We'll see defensively flynebacker.

882
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:07,400
Speaker 4: I think they're okay defensive line wise, still a question.

883
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 4: Defensive end looks better. Defensive tackle is still a question

884
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 4: for me. In the secondary, you lose some talent. You

885
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 4: lose both corners of the NFL. Ab Kamara, your Nickel

886
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 4: has been around a while, he's gone. Some of the

887
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 4: guys that you brought in are okay for me, but

888
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 4: not great. I think Jackson might start the Washington transfer.

889
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 4: You have Bud Clark's still around. Johnson's back at safety,

890
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 4: so there's some talent there. But I'm a little concerned.

891
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 4: Andy Avolos in here two has to find a way.

892
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 4: This is what he's known for, to get more havoc.

893
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:44,439
Speaker 4: So this team's good. They're I think worthy of being

894
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 4: in this top seven conversation. I have them tier one A.

895
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: Right.

896
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 4: With Utah they held l i U Utah who was

897
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 4: a disaster, Oak State, who is a disaster. Since he

898
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 4: la out to seven points per game. There are other

899
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 4: eight over thirty five points per game. Everyone got to

900
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 4: at least four touchdowns. That include Stanford, Arizona, Houston. We

901
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 4: know how bad their offense was and UCF, so some

902
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 4: of their defensive numbers benefited from playing just disaster situations.

903
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 4: With Utah State, since they only have four Big Twelve

904
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,919
Speaker 4: home games. They have a tough non conference. You start

905
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 4: at UNC, you host SMU, they do Phase four of

906
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 4: the Top six. You avoid Utah in Texas Tech. You

907
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 4: do host Baylor and Iowa State. But they have been

908
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 4: recruiting well. They've been the number one recruiting team in

909
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 4: the Big Twelve for the last three years. There's lots

910
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 4: of talent on this team. They build, they develop. What

911
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 4: are you seeing with the Warren Frogs?

912
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,919
Speaker 2: He liked them a lot, And I don't know why

913
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,799
Speaker 2: because I'm only picking out negative things about them when

914
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 2: I'm doing research on them. But my number says that

915
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 2: I should be taking over seven minus one twenty five.

916
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 2: I'm closer to eight on these guys. And the power

917
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 2: rating didn't really sven and a half best quarterback wide

918
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:58,919
Speaker 2: receiver due in the conference. Maybe. I mean, we're talking

919
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 2: about Josh Hoover, who is still struggling with mistakes. I mean,

920
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 2: this is where I get kind of caught up because

921
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 2: Hoover like is really good against certain coverages, and like

922
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 2: Cover one, he can't read and then everything else quarters

923
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:12,359
Speaker 2: he smokes right. So it's just it's just depends with him.

924
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 2: He's still making big mistakes. Now he's thirty seventh and

925
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 2: on targets, so how much is that on him? It's

926
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 2: really weird to see him so accurate but still making

927
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 2: more mistakes than the big time throws. I think what

928
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 2: really bothers me? Last year one hundred and twenty seven

929
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:29,479
Speaker 2: drop backs with pressure in a pressure pocket, one big

930
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 2: time throw, eight turnover worthy plays. So the offensive line

931
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 2: has to be there, and they're pretty mid tier for

932
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 2: the Big twelve from what I can read from some

933
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 2: of the units, some of the portal entries. I mean,

934
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:41,319
Speaker 2: there's guys over their inner pounds, but you know the

935
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 2: experience where the places that they got him are not

936
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 2: really to the level of the Big twelve. Now, Eric

937
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 2: Mcalliser is the home run hitter here by far for Hoover.

938
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:50,880
Speaker 2: You're going to hear that name a lot. Hoover's going

939
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 2: to hit him to catch this year two point nine

940
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 2: yards per route run on fifty eight targets and eleven

941
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 2: and a half a dot. He catches them deep and

942
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 2: he goes fast. So as I nitpicked the offensive line,

943
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:05,879
Speaker 2: and I'm worried about Hoover throwing with pressure because he's

944
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 2: been awful. He has a weapon that can take it

945
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 2: to the house. You know, Andy Ablos on the other

946
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:11,839
Speaker 2: side of the ball with the four, two five. You're right,

947
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 2: they want to get they want to get some havoc

948
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,840
Speaker 2: in there. Not good numbers. Last year, Avery Helm burned

949
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 2: a red shirt last year. He's going to be at

950
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:22,400
Speaker 2: the corner. You know, star linebacker Debian Deal and linebacker

951
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 2: nomdi Obiazor. They returned ten and a half tackles for

952
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 2: loss in eight sacks. So that's where your cornerstone piece

953
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 2: is going to be for Andy Ablos to generate some havoc.

954
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 2: You know.

955
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 3: That.

956
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 2: Being said, five big twelve row games back to back

957
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 2: spot from Provo to Houston, who's off of a bye week,

958
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 2: Arizona State. I always say, BYU all project to have

959
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,440
Speaker 2: top secondaries in the conference, and that's what Hoover's going

960
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:44,879
Speaker 2: to throw into. I mean, Baylor comes to Fort Worth

961
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:48,359
Speaker 2: off of a bye week. That's a problem. I mathematically,

962
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 2: I'm making this eight point one and I'm saying, yeah,

963
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 2: I'd rather go to circle and get the seven over

964
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,719
Speaker 2: one twenty five and I would touch at six and

965
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 2: a half like minus one sixty minus one eighty. But

966
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 2: all I do, stuck is nitpicked the team on both

967
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:02,440
Speaker 2: sides of the ball, and it starts with Hoover's mistakes

968
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:04,799
Speaker 2: when he sees pressure. Listen, I think they've got their

969
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:07,359
Speaker 2: home run hitters. They can't run the ball. They might

970
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 2: not be able to protect Hoover. He can score at

971
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,280
Speaker 2: any time. The defense is going to cause some fumbles

972
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 2: and some turnovers. It's going to help them out, but

973
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 2: they're gonna get blown away too. So this team is

974
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 2: a little bit tough to handicap. But I'm over. I'm

975
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,720
Speaker 2: probably gonna end up being over with my wallet and

976
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:24,840
Speaker 2: in the action app.

977
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 4: That TC's taking some money against the UNC big money

978
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 4: line should and it's not like TC has been great

979
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,759
Speaker 4: in season openers. We saw them lose to College last year.

980
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 4: They could have lost at Stanford too, horrendous teams the

981
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 4: last two years. I'm starting to get an inch on

982
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:41,799
Speaker 4: you and see I would six and a half to use.

983
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 4: I think this is definitely a seven win team, but

984
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 4: I protected seven and a half. All right, that'll do

985
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,759
Speaker 4: it for part one. We'll be right back with part two.

986
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 4: But thanks for tuning in, Thanks for con for joining me,

987
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:52,520
Speaker 4: Thanks to our producer. Make sure you suscribe on Subscribe

988
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 4: subscribe til friends on, I mean five star views. They

989
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 4: really help us out this time of year. I'm going

990
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:57,960
Speaker 4: to do some giveaways, some contests. Leave one if you can,

991
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 4: but we'll be back with part two covering the other

992
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 4: nine trying to find a sleeper. Catch you all on

993
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:04,320
Speaker 4: the other side. Cheers.

994
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 2: Please out.

995
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

996
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:19,759
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997
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