WEBVTT - Musk Stalls on Massive Tesla Plant, Stoking Caution in Mexico

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Tesla moving over sharp turn, there's settling on the Nueva

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<v Speaker 2>Leon site in northern Mexico for its next massive car plant.

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<v Speaker 2>Only nine months ago, politicians and executives actually hailed it

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<v Speaker 2>as a paragon of near shoring, the idea that international

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<v Speaker 2>companies will set up much more of their production in

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<v Speaker 2>Mexico to be closer to the US. Tim So the

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<v Speaker 2>company investment in the country is expected to reach about

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<v Speaker 2>ten billion dollars over multiple phases. But construction of this factory,

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<v Speaker 2>which had been slated to make Tesla it's cheaper next

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<v Speaker 2>generation vehicles, is delayed due to Elon Musk's misgivings about

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<v Speaker 2>the global economy. Other problems, including permitting delays and a

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<v Speaker 2>dearth of infrastructure, have plagued the process. So joining us

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<v Speaker 2>to walk us through some of these issues here. Amy

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<v Speaker 2>Stillman is Bloomberg News Mexico business reporter, and she spoke

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<v Speaker 2>to some locals who are now lowering their expectations as

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<v Speaker 2>the carmaker has held off on starting construction. So Amy

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<v Speaker 2>is joining us on Zoom from Mexico City walk us

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<v Speaker 2>through these issues. How did we get to this point?

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<v Speaker 3>Amy, great?

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you, Jess.

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, well, certainly, when it was first announced that Tesla

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<v Speaker 5>would be setting up a factory in Mexico at the

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<v Speaker 5>start of March, people were very excited. The local politicians,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, held it as the beacon of near shoring

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<v Speaker 5>that you know, this is going to bring a huge

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<v Speaker 5>amount of investment to Mexico, and it was also viewed

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<v Speaker 5>by residents in the area as a great boon for

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<v Speaker 5>the local economy.

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<v Speaker 4>Now fast forward about you know, nine.

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<v Speaker 5>Months or so, where we're at at now, and really

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<v Speaker 5>there's been no activity whatsoever.

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<v Speaker 4>I went and visited the site.

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<v Speaker 5>It's essentially, you know, sort of desert along the highway

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<v Speaker 5>with cactuses and no real construction going on. And one

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<v Speaker 5>of the issues is is that Tesla is still yet

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<v Speaker 5>to receive certain federal and state permits for the construction.

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<v Speaker 4>They have received a.

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<v Speaker 5>Permit for the land use, which is a very very

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<v Speaker 5>recent phenomenon that just happened this week. But essentially there

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<v Speaker 5>is an issue around delays to permits as well as

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<v Speaker 5>a lack of infrastructure. Elon Muss has requested that the

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<v Speaker 5>government help in terms of road infrastructure. There's another issue

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<v Speaker 5>around water access as well. And then you add those

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<v Speaker 5>issues happening in Mexico to the fact that the global

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<v Speaker 5>economy isn't doing as well that Elon Muss doesn't see

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<v Speaker 5>as much demand. So there's really been quite a significant

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<v Speaker 5>change in the.

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<v Speaker 4>Way that Tesla has been viewing Mexico.

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<v Speaker 6>What would you say is the biggest factor here? Does

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<v Speaker 6>it come from Tesla amy or is it coming from

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<v Speaker 6>the Mexican government given that the company is looking for

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<v Speaker 6>concessions here that perhaps the government isn't willing to just

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<v Speaker 6>hand out.

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<v Speaker 4>That's a great question, and certainly it's nuanced. You have

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<v Speaker 4>a few opposing forces.

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<v Speaker 5>The local state government is extremely keen on Tecla coming.

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<v Speaker 5>In addition to that that that permit that I mentioned

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<v Speaker 5>that was recently approved, the state government has also just

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<v Speaker 5>said that they're going to provide one hundred and fifty

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<v Speaker 5>three million dollar incentive for Tesla to come to, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>to help with the road infrastructure, and also a reduction

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<v Speaker 5>in the taxes around the payroll. You know, they've they've

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<v Speaker 5>done a ton that the governor has done a ton

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<v Speaker 5>in terms of advertising around the fact that Tesla is coming.

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<v Speaker 5>At the same time, the federal government has really tried

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<v Speaker 5>to push forward development of the south of Mexico, not

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<v Speaker 5>the north, which is where Tesla is headed. And you know,

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<v Speaker 5>there's been some concerns from the federal government that perhaps

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<v Speaker 5>the investment should be in this other.

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<v Speaker 4>Part of Mexico where there's more poverty.

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<v Speaker 5>So there are some questions around whether the federal government

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<v Speaker 5>will throw its full weight to bring Tesla over now

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<v Speaker 5>when it comes to Elon Musk, certainly, you know, he's

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<v Speaker 5>seemed very enthusiastic about the project. It does raise a

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<v Speaker 5>few questions whether perhaps some of the difficulties that they've.

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<v Speaker 4>Seen have you know, changed his mind. He did announce

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<v Speaker 4>in a recent.

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<v Speaker 5>Interview that they're going to be working on the next generation,

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<v Speaker 5>more affordable entry level vehicle from Texas first and then

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<v Speaker 5>Mexico because.

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<v Speaker 4>The plant won't be ready. So it's a little bit

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<v Speaker 4>of both sides.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you think the potential repercussions for Tesla would

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<v Speaker 2>be when it comes to production, right.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I think certainly we're going to see you know,

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<v Speaker 5>a delay with the production. You know, there were some

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<v Speaker 5>speculation about whether the plant would be built at all.

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<v Speaker 5>It certainly seems that you know, Tecla will continue to

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<v Speaker 5>pursue this, that it will be constructed. But certainly the idea.

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<v Speaker 4>Here, what local officials have said.

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<v Speaker 5>In the beginning was that you know, we were going

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<v Speaker 5>to see production start possibly in twenty twenty four next year.

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<v Speaker 5>Now they're pushing that number back out to twenty twenty five,

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<v Speaker 5>possibly even twenty twenty six, So that would certainly affect

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<v Speaker 5>the rollout of this new generation vehicle. Much will obviously

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<v Speaker 5>depend on, you know, how quickly they can can get

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<v Speaker 5>the factory.

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<v Speaker 6>Up and running and give us an idea of what's

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<v Speaker 6>at stake here. I mean, after all, auto factory is

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<v Speaker 6>something that politicians in the US fight over against one

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<v Speaker 6>another because the economic impact of something like this can

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<v Speaker 6>be so huge. It's not just the people who are

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<v Speaker 6>hired at the plant, it's the ripple effects throughout a

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<v Speaker 6>local economy of those you know, high paying jobs. What's

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<v Speaker 6>at stake here?

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, well that's certainly very much the case.

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<v Speaker 5>And you know, as I said, uh, the Tesla Tesla

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<v Speaker 5>plant has really been the poster boy for this this

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<v Speaker 5>move toward nearshoring, which is, you know, companies looking to

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<v Speaker 5>invest closer to the US. And certainly if this plant,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, doesn't get up and running, that.

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<v Speaker 4>Will look pretty poor.

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<v Speaker 5>It doesn't bode well for other companies that are looking

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<v Speaker 5>to set up here. At the same time, what we've

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<v Speaker 5>seen is a real huge influx of suppliers to Tesla

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<v Speaker 5>that a lot of companies have come over, especially from

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<v Speaker 5>China and other places, to be able to supply Tesla

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<v Speaker 5>in Mexico. So they're they're starting to set up so

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<v Speaker 5>it will be very interesting to see as well, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>whether they're going to be able to continue with their plans.

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<v Speaker 4>One company in particular that I spoke with.

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<v Speaker 5>Yan Lun from China, you know, had said that, well,

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<v Speaker 5>right now we're supplying to they're they're Austin factory, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>but but we set.

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<v Speaker 4>Up here for the Mexico factory.

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<v Speaker 5>So I'm I'm sure they're also you know, highly anticipating

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<v Speaker 5>that Tesla will get started. At the same time, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>the residents, as I mentioned, were very excited about the

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<v Speaker 5>rival of Tesla. There's still cautious optimism that this will

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<v Speaker 5>help propel the local economy, help create jobs, not just

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<v Speaker 5>in the Tesla factory, as you pointed out, but also

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<v Speaker 5>you know, all the suppliers that are living in all

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<v Speaker 5>of the supply chain that will require employees.

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<v Speaker 2>And you're speaking about those local residents, what are some

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<v Speaker 2>of their top questions right now in the wake of

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<v Speaker 2>all of this unraveling.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, certainly a big question is how soon will will

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<v Speaker 5>Tesla get.

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<v Speaker 4>Up and running. I think that's that's definitely on everybody's minds.

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<v Speaker 4>At the same.

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<v Speaker 5>Time, you know, there are certain questions around also, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>the the talent, the labor pool. Residents are very excited

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<v Speaker 5>about the opportunity to work for Tesla.

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<v Speaker 4>I've also spoken to some some local business owners.

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<v Speaker 5>Funnily enough, there are some competing businesses that are less excited.

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<v Speaker 5>They're worried about the you know, the talent being being

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<v Speaker 5>suctioned up by the the Tesla factory.

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<v Speaker 4>So there are some competing competing forces.

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<v Speaker 5>But certainly overall, people are people are waiting, people are excited.

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<v Speaker 4>They hope that that you know, more jobs will come.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I guess the question that I have is, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>what kind of moves the needle here. What are you

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<v Speaker 6>watching to see whether or not this is this factory

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<v Speaker 6>actually happens. Is it a global change and demand for EV's.

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<v Speaker 6>It's something that we've covered a lot here, especially when

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<v Speaker 6>it comes to American companies like gm Ford and Tesla

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<v Speaker 6>facing waiting demand or is it something that comes from

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<v Speaker 6>I don't know, perhaps something else. I mean, at the

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<v Speaker 6>end of the day, Elon Musk is the one who

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<v Speaker 6>makes this decision amy.

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<v Speaker 5>Of course, of course, and and I think certainly you know,

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<v Speaker 5>there are pressures to get moving on on electric vehicle production.

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<v Speaker 5>Tesla is not the only company you mentioned a few

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<v Speaker 5>others that has said that they would look to EV

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<v Speaker 5>production in Mexico. You know, we've seen a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>big players BMW for the few others that have also

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<v Speaker 5>you know, said that they.

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<v Speaker 4>Would be looking to EV production.

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<v Speaker 5>I think a lot of those big companies are waiting

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<v Speaker 5>to see what happens with Techla as well, to see

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<v Speaker 5>whether Tecla can achieve this goal.

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<v Speaker 4>Will they move a bit quicker.

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<v Speaker 5>At the same time, you've got a pretty strong competition

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<v Speaker 5>from some Chinese players like BYD.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, Tesla and BYD have been neck and neck,

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<v Speaker 4>and that.

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<v Speaker 5>Will certainly that will certainly play out in Mexico, where

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<v Speaker 5>BYD has announced recent partnerships in Mexico, is selling currently

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<v Speaker 5>selling vehicles.

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<v Speaker 6>Whatever whatever happens, we're going to be sure to have

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<v Speaker 6>to check in with you. That's Amy Stillman joining us

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<v Speaker 6>live on zoom from Mexico City. Check out her story

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<v Speaker 6>and more on the Bloomberg terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, it's been a whild year for Crypto Jeazz. I

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<v Speaker 6>think it's fair to say that at the end of

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<v Speaker 6>every single year, but there were some things that made

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<v Speaker 6>this year unique. There were some arrests, there were multiple bankruptcies,

0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:23.000
<v Speaker 6>and then of course Sam Bankment Freed is in jail

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<v Speaker 6>right now after being found guilty of stealing customer funds.

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<v Speaker 6>He's awaiting sentencing in March. If any year should have

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<v Speaker 6>out betted this sector, this one would have been it.

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<v Speaker 6>And yet it didn't actually happen because we have this

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<v Speaker 6>crypto comeback, brewing bitcoins value briefly surpassing forty four thousand

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<v Speaker 6>dollars earlier this month. That's its highest point in more

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<v Speaker 6>than a year, fueled by all this anticipation over eight

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<v Speaker 6>possible sec approval of a Bitcoin ETF. Joining us not

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<v Speaker 6>a dig deeper into the future of cryptos Ophelia Snyder,

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<v Speaker 6>co founder of twenty one co, who joins us on

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<v Speaker 6>zoom from New York City. Good to have you with us, Ophelia.

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<v Speaker 6>How are you.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm very well, Thank you, Thank you for having me.

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<v Speaker 6>So how would you characterize the state of crypto right now?

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<v Speaker 6>And you know, I don't want to conflate crypto and bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 6>which a lot of people certainly do. Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency,

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<v Speaker 6>But I think a lot of the optimism that we've

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<v Speaker 6>seen in crypto this year has been the result of

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<v Speaker 6>optimism over bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 7>So I think optimism is probably a good way of

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<v Speaker 7>describing the current state of crypto markets. I think we've

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<v Speaker 7>had a very long and quite transparently, quite brutal winter

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<v Speaker 7>across the space.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, you guess we're just talking about some.

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<v Speaker 7>Of these things, but it seems like now a lot

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<v Speaker 7>of that has shaken out, there's a lot less regulatory

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<v Speaker 7>uncertainty about some of the large players Coidmese, Finance, some

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<v Speaker 7>of these large names. We're starting to see a lot

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<v Speaker 7>less uncertainty around. You've seen a lot of the bad

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<v Speaker 7>actors get shaken out, and we've seen the industry really

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<v Speaker 7>consolidate and double down, and I think you're seeing now

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<v Speaker 7>the fruits of basically eighteen months of people working on things.

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<v Speaker 7>I think bigcoins certainly leading some of that narrative today

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<v Speaker 7>between the having THETF and some of the interesting market

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<v Speaker 7>dynamics that have happened there.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think it's broadly true across the industry.

0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 2>Like you were mentioning aphilia, we're waiting on the possibility

0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:27.240
<v Speaker 2>of the SEC approval of a bitcoin ETF How much

0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:29.520
<v Speaker 2>of that do you think has been priced into some

0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:33.040
<v Speaker 2>of these crypto coins, including bitcoin, and how much more

0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:36.160
<v Speaker 2>and potential further room could there be for an asset

0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:36.839
<v Speaker 2>class like that.

0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:41.760
<v Speaker 7>So I think people have to some extent priced in

0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:45.840
<v Speaker 7>the expectation of an approval, but I think there's a

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:51.320
<v Speaker 7>little bit of mispricing there still, the reason being crypto

0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:56.880
<v Speaker 7>doesn't really has never really seen big American style asset

0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.680
<v Speaker 7>management money, it's ever been possible really for them to

0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:00.400
<v Speaker 7>enter space.

0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:01.720
<v Speaker 3>There's been a little bit.

0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:04.400
<v Speaker 7>Of Oria money, there's been a little bit of sort

0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:08.760
<v Speaker 7>of other institutional money, but it's tiny compared to you know,

0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:11.800
<v Speaker 7>what is a couple of basis points on a multi

0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:16.920
<v Speaker 7>trillion dollar industry. It's very different and so quantum larger

0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:21.640
<v Speaker 7>than most market participants in crypto currently have ever seen

0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:26.040
<v Speaker 7>in terms of what that allocation really looks like once

0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:29.600
<v Speaker 7>you start to get away from pure play retail or

0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:35.760
<v Speaker 7>ultra sophisticated institutions. So I think the issue is to

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.800
<v Speaker 7>some extent, yes, to some extent no, I think it's

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.240
<v Speaker 7>going to take longer to see that money come in

0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:43.880
<v Speaker 7>than most people are currently expecting, but I think it

0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:46.320
<v Speaker 7>will be larger than what most people are currently expecting.

0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:48.560
<v Speaker 6>What makes you say that, Aphelia, Because I'm wondering that

0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:52.439
<v Speaker 6>it's not like bitcoin has been inaccessible to people at

0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:54.680
<v Speaker 6>this point, and to traders, they're really looking forward to

0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.600
<v Speaker 6>ETFs just for trading and what they can do with those.

0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.600
<v Speaker 6>But are there really people on the side lines right

0:14:00.640 --> 0:14:04.240
<v Speaker 6>now who haven't, who are interested in getting into crypto

0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:05.120
<v Speaker 6>who haven't.

0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:10.880
<v Speaker 7>So think about it really simply most people don't manage

0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:13.480
<v Speaker 7>their own money, right, whether that's your for A one

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:18.440
<v Speaker 7>K or your IRA, or you know, you're working with

0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 7>a financial advisor of some kind, or you know, your

0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 7>local RAA wherever that it is that you are. None

0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:30.080
<v Speaker 7>of those structures have ever been able to really access

0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:34.800
<v Speaker 7>this space. It's really difficult for an advisor to you know,

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:39.000
<v Speaker 7>support a client making that allocation. Historically, that's just been

0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:40.760
<v Speaker 7>I'm so sorry, we can't help you.

0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 3>Fry Coinbase.

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.440
<v Speaker 7>It's very different when an advisor can actually make a

0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:50.120
<v Speaker 7>strategic allocation, or a client can request this a strategic

0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:54.360
<v Speaker 7>allocation from their advisor, the very different structure to that.

0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:57.000
<v Speaker 7>So it's not people waiting on the sidelines per se.

0:14:57.480 --> 0:15:00.960
<v Speaker 7>It's just most people's money is tied up in other ways.

0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 7>And you know, I set up my entire company with

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:06.760
<v Speaker 7>the goal of helping my mom get into the space.

0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:10.640
<v Speaker 7>She started talk to me about this in twenty fourteen, saying,

0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:12.800
<v Speaker 7>you know, there's this really cool thing called bitcoin.

0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:14.320
<v Speaker 3>Have you heard of it? I have no idea what

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:15.440
<v Speaker 3>you're talking about it, but.

0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:18.520
<v Speaker 8>He's the one who told you about it. Yeah, that's

0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:19.520
<v Speaker 8>a that's pretty amazing.

0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:22.320
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, tell us a little more about that, because that's

0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 6>not typically something we hear.

0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:28.640
<v Speaker 7>Right, My mom's brilliant and came to me one day

0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 7>and said, MERK spent too much money on hedging, and

0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:38.080
<v Speaker 7>global monetary policy is too reliant on an assumption of

0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:41.680
<v Speaker 7>geopolitical stability to work long term. We need an alternative.

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:45.600
<v Speaker 7>It's going to help ensure better cross border trading and

0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:48.800
<v Speaker 7>be a long term tool for economic stability and peace.

0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:51.640
<v Speaker 7>Have you heard of a thing called bitcoin? Like, I

0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.640
<v Speaker 7>have no idea what you're talking about, but okay, And

0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:59.520
<v Speaker 7>that's actually how I started looking at crypto. But my mom, interestingly,

0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:03.080
<v Speaker 7>despite completely getting the point both on the monetary policy

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:05.400
<v Speaker 7>perspective as well as on the floor X side, she

0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:06.680
<v Speaker 7>never actually made the allocation.

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:07.640
<v Speaker 3>The reason she didn't make.

0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.040
<v Speaker 7>The allocation is that there is no way within her

0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 7>existing financial infrastructure, you know, the way she does her

0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:16.040
<v Speaker 7>tax reporting, the way she works with her advisors, that

0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:17.800
<v Speaker 7>was going to make it possible for her to come

0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:21.040
<v Speaker 7>into the space, at least not in a way that

0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:23.800
<v Speaker 7>she felt comfortable with, both from a technology perspective, but

0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.760
<v Speaker 7>also like purely from an infrastructure perspective, And that applies

0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.280
<v Speaker 7>to both a lot of individuals but also applies to.

0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:31.760
<v Speaker 3>Things like funds. It's really hard.

0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:35.280
<v Speaker 7>To trade in custody of crypto from a fiduciary perspective,

0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:38.960
<v Speaker 7>like the level of engagement that you need with your infrastructure,

0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:42.080
<v Speaker 7>and I know that is a permanently unsexy thing to

0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:47.080
<v Speaker 7>think about, but tax reporting and custodial and trading infrastructure

0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:51.560
<v Speaker 7>is a huge part of what these fiduciaries need to provide,

0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:53.360
<v Speaker 7>and they need to provide it to a certain level.

0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.680
<v Speaker 7>And it's a completely different piece of infrastructure. It's not

0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 7>as simple as well, you want it, we can sell

0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.920
<v Speaker 7>it to you. There's always been a bunch of gates

0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:04.159
<v Speaker 7>to this, and we've certainly seen that in Europe, where

0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 7>you know, we've been operating for the last five years

0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:09.040
<v Speaker 7>and selling quite frankly similar.

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.439
<v Speaker 3>Products to what's being contemplated in the US.

0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:14.720
<v Speaker 7>And we see a lot of our clients being people

0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:18.560
<v Speaker 7>for whom you know, buying direct physical is just either

0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:19.720
<v Speaker 7>not what they want to do or.

0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:20.240
<v Speaker 3>Not an option.

0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:24.719
<v Speaker 2>Well, talk to us about regulation because that's still pending

0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:28.040
<v Speaker 2>in Washington and the risks because there's still a lot

0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:32.280
<v Speaker 2>of skepticism when it comes to institutional adoption for crypto.

0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:41.040
<v Speaker 7>Yes there is, and I think that it is changing.

0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:44.440
<v Speaker 7>You know, when I when I started talking to large

0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:49.360
<v Speaker 7>institutions about crypto and blockchain and bitcoin five years ago,

0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:52.520
<v Speaker 7>everyone looked at me like I was completely out of

0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:55.520
<v Speaker 7>my mind and that this was just not something didn't

0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:58.000
<v Speaker 7>make any sense. Are you one hundred percent sure that

0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:00.560
<v Speaker 7>you know this exists?

0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:01.080
<v Speaker 4>How?

0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:03.560
<v Speaker 3>How can you even have a digital asset? What does

0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:04.040
<v Speaker 3>that mean?

0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:08.160
<v Speaker 7>You know, there were a lot more questions on basic

0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:12.080
<v Speaker 7>viability and whether or not we were just nuts. I

0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:15.160
<v Speaker 7>think that is no longer the case. I don't think

0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:18.840
<v Speaker 7>really the doubts around you know, whether or not this

0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:21.600
<v Speaker 7>asset's going to exist, going to continue to be built out.

0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:26.800
<v Speaker 7>The value of watching two institutions, the value of smart

0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:30.000
<v Speaker 7>contracts to institutions, and I think that's especially true in

0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:30.840
<v Speaker 7>terms of ethereum.

0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:32.000
<v Speaker 3>And you're starting to see, you.

0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:36.080
<v Speaker 7>Know, large asset managers bring tokenization projects forward. You're starting

0:18:36.119 --> 0:18:40.000
<v Speaker 7>to see more utility and cross border payments. You're starting

0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:44.320
<v Speaker 7>to see real use cases and everything from financial services.

0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:44.679
<v Speaker 3>To video games.

0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:47.919
<v Speaker 7>And I think that's really exciting and it's changed the

0:18:48.000 --> 0:18:50.760
<v Speaker 7>dialogue because now there's a real thematic here, and there's

0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:56.919
<v Speaker 7>a real proven use case that's not solely contained to

0:18:57.160 --> 0:18:57.920
<v Speaker 7>the crypto world.

0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.680
<v Speaker 6>Well, really appreciate you joining us this after noon. That's

0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:03.919
<v Speaker 6>Ophilia Snyder, co founder of twenty one Code, joining us

0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.800
<v Speaker 6>on zoom from New York City again. To get crypto

0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:11.480
<v Speaker 6>on the Bloomberg terminal prices, just get up the dashboard

0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:15.600
<v Speaker 6>ceryp go on the Bloomberg terminal. Bitcoin now at about

0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:17.879
<v Speaker 6>forty and forty four dollars.

0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:22.320
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:26.399
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:29.879
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:33.080
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0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:36.560
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:38.120
<v Speaker 5>Well.

0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:41.680
<v Speaker 6>The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied nearly three percent this week.

0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:44.359
<v Speaker 6>It was led higher by Australian, Korean, and Chinese shares

0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:48.119
<v Speaker 6>as tech stalks climbed. Bonds rallied through the region, including

0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:50.639
<v Speaker 6>in Japan and Indonesia.

0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:51.960
<v Speaker 8>It's a sign that.

0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:54.960
<v Speaker 6>Global investors are becoming comfortable with risk your assets this

0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:58.719
<v Speaker 6>after being cautious on investing in Asia over the past decade.

0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:02.679
<v Speaker 6>As the investors do with deglobalization and slower economic growth

0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:06.000
<v Speaker 6>in the region. Joining us now in the Bloomberg Interactor

0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:08.480
<v Speaker 6>Broker studio is somebody we check in with every few months.

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:11.879
<v Speaker 6>John Whihar is head of Asians Asia Special Situations for

0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:15.320
<v Speaker 6>Pick Day Asset Management, usually based in Singapore, but when

0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:17.400
<v Speaker 6>he comes to the US we like to get him

0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:20.199
<v Speaker 6>in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. It's good to see you.

0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:21.080
<v Speaker 8>How are you great?

0:20:21.080 --> 0:20:22.320
<v Speaker 9>Thank you, how are you doing well?

0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:24.880
<v Speaker 8>Things? What brings you to New York every few months?

0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:28.440
<v Speaker 9>A couple of things, Meeting investors, talking to investors, research,

0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:32.240
<v Speaker 9>touching base with brokers and lost those kinds of things. So, yeah,

0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:34.040
<v Speaker 9>always a good trip. And I lived here for a while,

0:20:34.119 --> 0:20:34.919
<v Speaker 9>so a bit.

0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:38.880
<v Speaker 6>Of social How has the tone or the reception been

0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:41.000
<v Speaker 6>this trip versus last time you were here a few

0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:42.720
<v Speaker 6>months ago, because a lot has changed since then.

0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:44.879
<v Speaker 9>You know, a lot's changed, But one thing that hasn't

0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:48.680
<v Speaker 9>changed is the sentiment around China. So sentiment around China

0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:52.560
<v Speaker 9>is pretty bad. It's pretty low, and we certainly haven't

0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:54.440
<v Speaker 9>seen a tick up there yet. I think there's quite

0:20:54.440 --> 0:20:56.399
<v Speaker 9>a lot of apathy. Positioning is about as bad as

0:20:56.400 --> 0:20:58.520
<v Speaker 9>I've ever seen it, And so you know, I think

0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:00.760
<v Speaker 9>we're sort of waiting for that to defy itself.

0:21:00.840 --> 0:21:02.119
<v Speaker 8>Is it uninvestable China?

0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:04.479
<v Speaker 9>I don't think it's uninvestable. I don't think that at all.

0:21:04.480 --> 0:21:06.560
<v Speaker 9>I mean, hey, it's still in the world's second largst economy,

0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:09.879
<v Speaker 9>second large stock market, So I don't think uninvestable is

0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:12.000
<v Speaker 9>the right way. But there are risks and certainly if

0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:15.360
<v Speaker 9>you look at macroeconomically what's happening there, there are challenges

0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:18.840
<v Speaker 9>that are giving pause for thought for investors.

0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:22.600
<v Speaker 2>So recently though, what sort of driving things when you

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:25.240
<v Speaker 2>have a backdrop of the past decade that has been

0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:29.200
<v Speaker 2>so tough for equities in Asia.

0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:32.520
<v Speaker 9>Look, I think the main thing that investors really want

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:36.960
<v Speaker 9>to understand is the geopolitical and that's obviously also the

0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:39.439
<v Speaker 9>hardest as well. It's very unpredictable, and so you know,

0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:43.639
<v Speaker 9>when investors are trying to frame their investment views around Asia,

0:21:43.720 --> 0:21:45.880
<v Speaker 9>obviously you start with China and you try to understand

0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:48.200
<v Speaker 9>what risks are from the geopolitical perspective. And I think

0:21:48.320 --> 0:21:51.080
<v Speaker 9>that's still something that people don't understand. It's hard to unpack.

0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:53.399
<v Speaker 9>It's changing very quickly, and as a result, with the

0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:56.199
<v Speaker 9>macro backdrop also being challenged, people are saying, we're sort

0:21:56.200 --> 0:21:57.800
<v Speaker 9>of happy it's sit on the sidelines at the moment.

0:21:58.920 --> 0:22:00.960
<v Speaker 6>What it's twenty five look like? I mean, what are

0:22:01.000 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 6>the opportunities that you're presenting right now to clients? Where

0:22:03.560 --> 0:22:05.120
<v Speaker 6>do you see room to run?

0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:07.200
<v Speaker 9>Look, I think the first thing to say is that

0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:10.040
<v Speaker 9>China is not dead by any means. There are opportunities

0:22:10.040 --> 0:22:11.680
<v Speaker 9>in China. As I said, you know, we are talking

0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:13.520
<v Speaker 9>about a very large economy and we are talking about

0:22:13.560 --> 0:22:16.679
<v Speaker 9>a lot of consumers there. So there are opportunities, and

0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:19.240
<v Speaker 9>certainly we agree that you know, you, Paul, we need

0:22:19.280 --> 0:22:20.480
<v Speaker 9>a little bit more nuanced in the way that you

0:22:20.560 --> 0:22:24.119
<v Speaker 9>do invest in China rather than perhaps just directionally. But

0:22:24.200 --> 0:22:25.919
<v Speaker 9>the story of twenty to four will most likely be

0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:28.600
<v Speaker 9>Japan as simple as that. Japan. We're seeing a lot

0:22:28.600 --> 0:22:31.359
<v Speaker 9>of regular reform happening in Japan right now, listing rules

0:22:31.359 --> 0:22:34.880
<v Speaker 9>around the TSC focused on your price to book improvement ROI,

0:22:35.040 --> 0:22:37.119
<v Speaker 9>these kinds of things, and so you know, there's a

0:22:37.119 --> 0:22:40.760
<v Speaker 9>lot happening in Japan that that's happening from the ground

0:22:40.840 --> 0:22:44.040
<v Speaker 9>up level, from the corporate level. That is really exciting

0:22:44.040 --> 0:22:46.000
<v Speaker 9>people because we're starting to see a cheap market and

0:22:46.080 --> 0:22:49.320
<v Speaker 9>market that's historically cheap. Finally, unlocking value with the corporate level, Is.

0:22:49.320 --> 0:22:53.400
<v Speaker 6>It hard to convince investors to allocate enough to Asia

0:22:53.840 --> 0:22:57.879
<v Speaker 6>given that there has been in recent years such a

0:22:57.960 --> 0:23:00.320
<v Speaker 6>history of our performance when it comes to us, Actually.

0:23:00.560 --> 0:23:03.480
<v Speaker 9>Exactly exactly right, I mean that is that's the bug bear.

0:23:03.600 --> 0:23:05.399
<v Speaker 8>I mean, that's got to be one of your biggest one.

0:23:05.320 --> 0:23:07.359
<v Speaker 9>Hundred percent, one hundred percent. Look at the end of

0:23:07.359 --> 0:23:09.480
<v Speaker 9>the day, why if it don't break wide and you

0:23:09.600 --> 0:23:11.440
<v Speaker 9>don't fix it. I mean, if you look at what's

0:23:11.440 --> 0:23:14.200
<v Speaker 9>happening right now in the US markets, I mean, why

0:23:14.240 --> 0:23:15.600
<v Speaker 9>would you Why would you take money out of the

0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:16.040
<v Speaker 9>US markets?

0:23:16.080 --> 0:23:17.280
<v Speaker 8>Really make your job easier?

0:23:17.320 --> 0:23:19.280
<v Speaker 9>It doesn't make my job any easier, but also it

0:23:19.320 --> 0:23:22.480
<v Speaker 9>creates that creates opportunities as well. So there's still value

0:23:22.480 --> 0:23:24.480
<v Speaker 9>opportunities out there. There's still a lot of events driven

0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:27.560
<v Speaker 9>situations that are interested to us. You get stocks that

0:23:27.800 --> 0:23:30.160
<v Speaker 9>do large buybacks or take over as MBOs, these kinds

0:23:30.160 --> 0:23:32.760
<v Speaker 9>of things. There are opportunities there regardless of who's involved.

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:34.720
<v Speaker 9>So you know that's interesting to us, and that's why

0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:37.000
<v Speaker 9>you are seeing these high loves of transactions because of

0:23:37.359 --> 0:23:38.560
<v Speaker 9>that apathetic market.

0:23:38.720 --> 0:23:41.359
<v Speaker 2>What are some of the top questions and concerns that

0:23:41.440 --> 0:23:43.320
<v Speaker 2>you hear from your clients.

0:23:44.040 --> 0:23:46.840
<v Speaker 9>I think in regards to Japan, the question that you

0:23:46.920 --> 0:23:50.400
<v Speaker 9>always get is why is it different this time? We've

0:23:50.440 --> 0:23:53.160
<v Speaker 9>seen these instances before, as we know around aber Nomics

0:23:53.160 --> 0:23:57.320
<v Speaker 9>twenty fourteen saw the market move up brevery sharply, not

0:23:57.440 --> 0:24:00.199
<v Speaker 9>just to give a pullback a few months afterwards. So

0:24:00.240 --> 0:24:03.160
<v Speaker 9>there is that level of skepticism. But ironically that skepticism

0:24:03.240 --> 0:24:06.520
<v Speaker 9>exists both from international investors and the local investors themselves.

0:24:07.200 --> 0:24:09.640
<v Speaker 9>But it's worth noting that the regulators in the Tokyo

0:24:09.680 --> 0:24:13.960
<v Speaker 9>Stock Exchange METI and even Kausheta sign himself, the PM,

0:24:14.080 --> 0:24:16.040
<v Speaker 9>they're very focused on making it different this time, and

0:24:16.080 --> 0:24:18.720
<v Speaker 9>so they're approaching They're approaching it from an angle of

0:24:18.720 --> 0:24:22.080
<v Speaker 9>corporate form, creating companies that are that are more robust,

0:24:22.119 --> 0:24:25.159
<v Speaker 9>balance sheets that are more streamlined, and ultimately focusing on

0:24:25.240 --> 0:24:31.120
<v Speaker 9>shaholder engagement, shoholder returns and ultimately efficient markets.

0:24:31.840 --> 0:24:34.840
<v Speaker 6>John, when do you think you'll come back here and

0:24:34.880 --> 0:24:38.040
<v Speaker 6>sit down with us and say, the last year in

0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:39.440
<v Speaker 6>China was a very good year.

0:24:40.560 --> 0:24:43.000
<v Speaker 9>I mean, I hope it's next year, but like ultimately

0:24:43.000 --> 0:24:44.280
<v Speaker 9>it's it's really difficult to tell.

0:24:44.359 --> 0:24:47.560
<v Speaker 6>I think is the government setting it up for that,

0:24:47.600 --> 0:24:49.560
<v Speaker 6>for that for twenty twenty four to be that. Are

0:24:49.600 --> 0:24:51.640
<v Speaker 6>they doing the right kind of reforms? Are they doing

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 6>the kind of stimulus?

0:24:53.080 --> 0:24:54.840
<v Speaker 9>Great question. I don't think we're seeing that yet. I

0:24:54.840 --> 0:24:55.639
<v Speaker 9>don't think that's clear.

0:24:55.760 --> 0:24:57.520
<v Speaker 8>I think they're really targeted.

0:24:57.760 --> 0:24:59.600
<v Speaker 9>It has been very targeted. There's been there has been

0:24:59.640 --> 0:25:02.639
<v Speaker 9>loosen but ultimately we have not seen this, you know

0:25:02.960 --> 0:25:06.400
<v Speaker 9>quotation fingers a bazooka stimulus that people have been waiting for,

0:25:06.920 --> 0:25:09.280
<v Speaker 9>and that may be a red herring itself, so you know,

0:25:09.600 --> 0:25:12.399
<v Speaker 9>we're all waiting. I think ultimately what we'd really love

0:25:12.440 --> 0:25:15.320
<v Speaker 9>to see is the throwing of geopolitical relations, the thawing

0:25:15.359 --> 0:25:17.640
<v Speaker 9>of the of the standoff that we've seen, but it's

0:25:17.720 --> 0:25:19.600
<v Speaker 9>just difficult to see with you know, eleven months out

0:25:19.600 --> 0:25:22.359
<v Speaker 9>from an election. This is an election talking point, so

0:25:22.760 --> 0:25:26.080
<v Speaker 9>you know, I mean, we're ever hopeful, evergreen, But you know,

0:25:26.160 --> 0:25:28.560
<v Speaker 9>I don't think, you know, I don't think there's anything

0:25:28.920 --> 0:25:33.440
<v Speaker 9>immediate that gives us anything that to be spactaically bullsh about,

0:25:33.400 --> 0:25:36.240
<v Speaker 9>at least directionally other than positioning, I should.

0:25:35.960 --> 0:25:38.439
<v Speaker 2>Say, right, and especially when you're talking about sort of

0:25:38.480 --> 0:25:41.119
<v Speaker 2>different conflicts where they're thinking about when it comes to

0:25:41.119 --> 0:25:44.200
<v Speaker 2>the US versus what's going on with Beijing. What about

0:25:44.240 --> 0:25:47.040
<v Speaker 2>when it comes to those repercussions, particularly with industries like

0:25:47.119 --> 0:25:50.560
<v Speaker 2>chip makers, technology stocks, which really took off this year

0:25:50.600 --> 0:25:53.000
<v Speaker 2>after getting so hit hard last year. How do you

0:25:53.119 --> 0:25:56.119
<v Speaker 2>view that, particularly when it comes to Asia equities.

0:25:56.400 --> 0:25:58.639
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, so, I mean, look, we really are seeing a

0:25:58.680 --> 0:26:03.160
<v Speaker 9>bipolarization of the world and technology along with that. So

0:26:03.200 --> 0:26:06.040
<v Speaker 9>it's it's very very clear. The big beneficiaries of this

0:26:06.080 --> 0:26:09.160
<v Speaker 9>whole sort of decoupling have been the US chip companies,

0:26:09.560 --> 0:26:13.520
<v Speaker 9>Taiwanese companies as well, obviously TSMC, and then as a

0:26:13.520 --> 0:26:16.439
<v Speaker 9>derivative to that, the Japanese technology guys as well. So

0:26:16.480 --> 0:26:18.639
<v Speaker 9>we are seeing we are seeing winners and we are

0:26:18.640 --> 0:26:20.879
<v Speaker 9>seeing losers from that. But you know, it's not just

0:26:20.920 --> 0:26:23.520
<v Speaker 9>the American hip guys that are that are winning here,

0:26:23.520 --> 0:26:26.040
<v Speaker 9>it is the others as well. It's it's it's the Taiwanese,

0:26:26.200 --> 0:26:28.320
<v Speaker 9>the Japanese as well. And not to mention, you know,

0:26:28.320 --> 0:26:32.520
<v Speaker 9>we've got a lot of investment in semiconductors and technology

0:26:32.520 --> 0:26:35.000
<v Speaker 9>into Southeast Asia as well, So you look at places

0:26:35.000 --> 0:26:37.160
<v Speaker 9>like Malaysia that's becoming a kind of a semi hub

0:26:37.200 --> 0:26:39.720
<v Speaker 9>as well. There's a lot of investment going south. And

0:26:39.760 --> 0:26:43.160
<v Speaker 9>then obviously the big grill in the room is India

0:26:43.160 --> 0:26:45.120
<v Speaker 9>have a lot of growth happening and you're not necessarily

0:26:45.160 --> 0:26:47.920
<v Speaker 9>in the semiconductor space, but a lot of a lot

0:26:47.960 --> 0:26:49.080
<v Speaker 9>of growth happening in You're.

0:26:49.160 --> 0:26:51.040
<v Speaker 8>A lot of investors helping. It's the next China.

0:26:51.800 --> 0:26:53.879
<v Speaker 9>I mean, you know, the GDP print was brilliant, so

0:26:54.000 --> 0:26:54.920
<v Speaker 9>GEDI prooping the other day.

0:26:54.960 --> 0:26:56.960
<v Speaker 8>But you know, John, we love it when you join us.

0:26:56.960 --> 0:26:57.399
<v Speaker 8>We got to run.

0:26:57.480 --> 0:26:59.920
<v Speaker 6>John Whittier is head of Asian Special Situations for PEA

0:27:00.080 --> 0:27:02.000
<v Speaker 6>Day Asset Management, joining us here in.

0:27:02.000 --> 0:27:04.320
<v Speaker 8>The Blueberg Interactive at broker's studio.

0:27:09.119 --> 0:27:11.200
<v Speaker 4>M Marco.

0:27:12.600 --> 0:27:13.280
<v Speaker 5>A journal.

0:27:14.480 --> 0:27:15.320
<v Speaker 4>Bet you let me drive?

0:27:15.560 --> 0:27:20.880
<v Speaker 9>Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please, I'll travel.

0:27:22.080 --> 0:27:22.840
<v Speaker 8>I want to drive.

0:27:22.840 --> 0:27:25.919
<v Speaker 4>It's the question.

0:27:29.800 --> 0:27:31.679
<v Speaker 8>This is the drive to the clothes.

0:27:33.160 --> 0:27:36.200
<v Speaker 1>We'll bach other down on Bluemberg Radio.

0:27:36.560 --> 0:27:37.800
<v Speaker 8>Well here we are hard to believe.

0:27:37.880 --> 0:27:40.320
<v Speaker 6>It's already close to the end of another week and

0:27:40.600 --> 0:27:42.119
<v Speaker 6>it's another week of green.

0:27:42.320 --> 0:27:43.880
<v Speaker 8>Look at that so much green.

0:27:44.160 --> 0:27:46.080
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, the SEB five hundred, It is on track for

0:27:46.240 --> 0:27:49.760
<v Speaker 6>it's seventh straight week of gains. That if it holds,

0:27:49.800 --> 0:27:51.560
<v Speaker 6>which it looks like it will, would be its longest

0:27:51.560 --> 0:27:55.159
<v Speaker 6>winning streak going all the way back to two thousand seventeen.

0:27:55.800 --> 0:27:56.680
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, look at that.

0:27:57.240 --> 0:27:59.280
<v Speaker 6>We'll see if it will see if what happens next week.

0:28:00.119 --> 0:28:01.600
<v Speaker 6>Let's go to our drive of the closed guest. We

0:28:01.680 --> 0:28:04.160
<v Speaker 6>got Brook May, managing partner at Evans May Wealth, joining

0:28:04.200 --> 0:28:06.120
<v Speaker 6>us on a zoom from Carmel, Indiana.

0:28:06.960 --> 0:28:10.320
<v Speaker 8>Good to have you with us, Brooke. How are you well?

0:28:10.440 --> 0:28:10.720
<v Speaker 10>Thank you?

0:28:10.880 --> 0:28:12.520
<v Speaker 8>How are you doing pretty well?

0:28:12.640 --> 0:28:17.080
<v Speaker 6>Did this rally starting back in October on October twenty seventh,

0:28:17.800 --> 0:28:20.240
<v Speaker 6>up about fifteen percent on the S and p fford

0:28:20.280 --> 0:28:20.560
<v Speaker 6>since then?

0:28:20.560 --> 0:28:21.720
<v Speaker 8>Did this catch you off guard.

0:28:23.040 --> 0:28:23.560
<v Speaker 2>A little bit?

0:28:23.760 --> 0:28:27.840
<v Speaker 10>We were optimistic going in to your end. It tends

0:28:27.880 --> 0:28:30.040
<v Speaker 10>to be a good time for the market. November and

0:28:30.119 --> 0:28:32.200
<v Speaker 10>December tend to be the to of the best months,

0:28:32.600 --> 0:28:35.760
<v Speaker 10>so weren't completely cough guard, but fifteen percent, that's more

0:28:35.800 --> 0:28:36.560
<v Speaker 10>than we expected.

0:28:37.400 --> 0:28:37.640
<v Speaker 5>Brooke.

0:28:37.680 --> 0:28:40.280
<v Speaker 2>Whenever I spoke with you in the last couple of weeks,

0:28:40.320 --> 0:28:43.000
<v Speaker 2>you were talking about leading into this FED decision earlier

0:28:43.080 --> 0:28:45.640
<v Speaker 2>this week, that the FED fears that any signal from

0:28:45.680 --> 0:28:48.960
<v Speaker 2>policy makers that area could be coming may cause another

0:28:49.080 --> 0:28:51.320
<v Speaker 2>big rally and asset prices. And we got a big

0:28:51.480 --> 0:28:54.720
<v Speaker 2>rally there. But what's your take on the way that

0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:59.320
<v Speaker 2>tones of Pal's tone was in this particular speech, because

0:28:59.360 --> 0:29:01.600
<v Speaker 2>a lot of people were thinking he would push back

0:29:01.720 --> 0:29:04.920
<v Speaker 2>harder against that, but not quite as much ended up

0:29:05.240 --> 0:29:07.000
<v Speaker 2>as people and investors were thinking.

0:29:08.240 --> 0:29:11.360
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, I was in that hawkish camp. I thought that

0:29:11.840 --> 0:29:14.640
<v Speaker 10>the comments were going to be airing on the side

0:29:14.640 --> 0:29:17.280
<v Speaker 10>of caution to ensure that we didn't get that asset

0:29:17.360 --> 0:29:22.240
<v Speaker 10>price elevation that that we we saw. So his comments,

0:29:22.320 --> 0:29:26.520
<v Speaker 10>you know, indicating that rate hikes will be coming, obviously,

0:29:26.600 --> 0:29:30.440
<v Speaker 10>the market responded favorably. He didn't say when, though, And

0:29:30.560 --> 0:29:32.600
<v Speaker 10>I think that a lot of good poisterres have started

0:29:32.680 --> 0:29:35.720
<v Speaker 10>to price in the first quarter, and I don't think

0:29:35.720 --> 0:29:40.000
<v Speaker 10>that'll be the case unless we see unemployment tick above

0:29:40.040 --> 0:29:40.600
<v Speaker 10>four percent.

0:29:41.040 --> 0:29:41.840
<v Speaker 9>I think that I don't think.

0:29:42.560 --> 0:29:44.160
<v Speaker 6>I don't think that is going to cut rates in

0:29:44.200 --> 0:29:48.160
<v Speaker 6>the first quarter unless unemployment goes above four percent, I don't.

0:29:48.520 --> 0:29:50.560
<v Speaker 10>I think they're going to take the opportunity to be patient.

0:29:51.040 --> 0:29:54.520
<v Speaker 10>We're clearly now on that path to two percent, which

0:29:54.600 --> 0:29:57.240
<v Speaker 10>is the phrase that they had been using for several quarters.

0:29:57.840 --> 0:29:59.720
<v Speaker 10>We're on the path at this point, there's no question.

0:30:00.040 --> 0:30:02.160
<v Speaker 10>And so are they going to wait until we get

0:30:02.200 --> 0:30:05.640
<v Speaker 10>to two percent? Probably not, but they're going to have

0:30:05.720 --> 0:30:09.240
<v Speaker 10>the ability to be patient if unemployment stays sub four percent,

0:30:09.480 --> 0:30:12.560
<v Speaker 10>and right now, with the economy looking the way that

0:30:12.640 --> 0:30:14.320
<v Speaker 10>it is, it's very possible.

0:30:14.960 --> 0:30:18.760
<v Speaker 6>So given that that's your thought, do you think that

0:30:19.280 --> 0:30:22.760
<v Speaker 6>the markets are kind of over their skis when it

0:30:22.880 --> 0:30:25.360
<v Speaker 6>comes to expectations for rate cuts.

0:30:27.400 --> 0:30:31.080
<v Speaker 10>Yes, I do, but that doesn't mean that we're expecting

0:30:31.160 --> 0:30:34.840
<v Speaker 10>or forecasting a crash or a significant pullback in the

0:30:34.920 --> 0:30:37.640
<v Speaker 10>market right now. Any type of pullback we're going to

0:30:38.000 --> 0:30:40.840
<v Speaker 10>see as by a buying opportunity. When we look out

0:30:41.040 --> 0:30:43.840
<v Speaker 10>to the end of twenty twenty four, our price target

0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:46.600
<v Speaker 10>is fifty two hundred to fifty four hundred on the SMP,

0:30:47.240 --> 0:30:49.720
<v Speaker 10>which a few weeks ago seemed like a stretch, but

0:30:49.840 --> 0:30:52.440
<v Speaker 10>with the rally we've had, that's really lated in to

0:30:52.520 --> 0:30:56.120
<v Speaker 10>fourteen percent upside from here. So if we see the

0:30:56.160 --> 0:30:59.240
<v Speaker 10>earnings growth that we're expecting, we think that we'll see

0:30:59.240 --> 0:31:01.480
<v Speaker 10>earnings of eleven percent from this year to next year.

0:31:02.320 --> 0:31:05.520
<v Speaker 10>At nineteen times forward earnings, it's reasonable that we could

0:31:05.520 --> 0:31:10.160
<v Speaker 10>get there. When we look at Q three earnings announcements, companies,

0:31:11.360 --> 0:31:13.920
<v Speaker 10>they were able to prove that they can navigate a

0:31:14.000 --> 0:31:16.960
<v Speaker 10>higher interest rate environment they've had two years to prepare,

0:31:17.520 --> 0:31:20.400
<v Speaker 10>so we think that that'll continue where earnings are a

0:31:20.400 --> 0:31:23.760
<v Speaker 10>little better than expected, and therefore the market will continue

0:31:23.800 --> 0:31:24.200
<v Speaker 10>to rally.

0:31:24.680 --> 0:31:27.280
<v Speaker 2>When it comes to some of those buying opportunities, how

0:31:27.320 --> 0:31:29.840
<v Speaker 2>are you advising clients to position? What are you telling

0:31:29.840 --> 0:31:31.240
<v Speaker 2>them to buy, what are you telling them to sell?

0:31:33.480 --> 0:31:35.680
<v Speaker 10>We don't think you can be sector specific or really

0:31:35.760 --> 0:31:38.840
<v Speaker 10>even asset class specific right now. We want to we're

0:31:38.880 --> 0:31:41.960
<v Speaker 10>taking kind of a bottoms up perspective. We're looking at

0:31:42.040 --> 0:31:45.560
<v Speaker 10>individual companies one by one. As you can see, the

0:31:45.640 --> 0:31:48.720
<v Speaker 10>Russell two thousand has really rallied the last few weeks,

0:31:49.200 --> 0:31:52.240
<v Speaker 10>and if you peel it back and look at Russell

0:31:52.280 --> 0:31:57.240
<v Speaker 10>two thousand companies, about about thirty percent of their debt

0:31:57.320 --> 0:32:00.160
<v Speaker 10>is at variable rates, so they're not necessarily and the

0:32:00.240 --> 0:32:03.760
<v Speaker 10>clear yet, especially considering that only sixty percent of Rustle

0:32:03.760 --> 0:32:06.640
<v Speaker 10>two thousand companies are actually profitable. So we're going to

0:32:06.680 --> 0:32:09.240
<v Speaker 10>be very selective. It doesn't mean we wouldn't buy small

0:32:09.320 --> 0:32:12.840
<v Speaker 10>caps in this environment. We think that they're that environment

0:32:12.960 --> 0:32:15.840
<v Speaker 10>is improving, but we're going to look at the fundamentals

0:32:15.880 --> 0:32:18.280
<v Speaker 10>for each company, and we want companies that have low

0:32:18.360 --> 0:32:21.480
<v Speaker 10>leverage and strong balance sheets. Really good free cash flow.

0:32:21.640 --> 0:32:23.160
<v Speaker 8>How are you looking at fixed income right now?

0:32:23.240 --> 0:32:25.040
<v Speaker 6>And I just want to bring our Bloomberg audience a

0:32:25.200 --> 0:32:28.360
<v Speaker 6>headline across the Bloomberg terminal. Moments ago, the Treasury thirty

0:32:28.440 --> 0:32:32.240
<v Speaker 6>year yield falling below four percent, the lowest since July.

0:32:32.760 --> 0:32:35.320
<v Speaker 6>So we're seeing yields fall at the long end of

0:32:35.400 --> 0:32:38.360
<v Speaker 6>the curve, but move higher today at the short end.

0:32:38.320 --> 0:32:38.920
<v Speaker 8>Of the curve.

0:32:39.880 --> 0:32:43.120
<v Speaker 6>Still that the drop in yields that we've seen in

0:32:43.280 --> 0:32:46.120
<v Speaker 6>such a short time has been pretty remarkable. How are

0:32:46.120 --> 0:32:46.960
<v Speaker 6>you watching the bond market?

0:32:48.080 --> 0:32:50.360
<v Speaker 10>It really has been remarkable is a great word to

0:32:50.440 --> 0:32:55.360
<v Speaker 10>describe it. We got excited about bonds five six weeks ago,

0:32:55.360 --> 0:32:56.360
<v Speaker 10>whenever that was a good time.

0:32:59.320 --> 0:33:00.440
<v Speaker 4>We are equity biased.

0:33:00.920 --> 0:33:03.720
<v Speaker 10>Over eighty percent of our portfolio is allocated to equities.

0:33:04.200 --> 0:33:06.800
<v Speaker 10>Our clients are high net worth and ultra high net worth,

0:33:07.200 --> 0:33:10.080
<v Speaker 10>and oftentimes they've been investors for decades, so they're comfortable

0:33:10.120 --> 0:33:13.600
<v Speaker 10>with that volatility, and we've over allocated.

0:33:13.200 --> 0:33:13.800
<v Speaker 3>In that space.

0:33:14.440 --> 0:33:16.480
<v Speaker 10>But a few weeks ago we said, you know what,

0:33:16.760 --> 0:33:18.960
<v Speaker 10>it's time to buy some bonds because we could get

0:33:19.280 --> 0:33:23.840
<v Speaker 10>really good yields on municipals and high quality corporates. Now

0:33:23.920 --> 0:33:26.560
<v Speaker 10>we're kind of back to a level that we've been seeing,

0:33:27.360 --> 0:33:29.240
<v Speaker 10>you know, over the last few years or so, so

0:33:29.520 --> 0:33:32.680
<v Speaker 10>we're not as excited. But for our clients that do

0:33:32.840 --> 0:33:35.400
<v Speaker 10>have a small allocation to bonds, we think that they'll

0:33:35.440 --> 0:33:37.360
<v Speaker 10>have decent returns over the next few years.

0:33:37.960 --> 0:33:40.000
<v Speaker 2>We've seen the ten yured treasury yield come down a

0:33:40.080 --> 0:33:43.520
<v Speaker 2>percentage point since October nineteenth, that's when it briefly crossed

0:33:43.560 --> 0:33:45.960
<v Speaker 2>above five But at what point Because clearly this has

0:33:46.040 --> 0:33:50.120
<v Speaker 2>been supportive for equities as we've seen yields come down dramatically,

0:33:50.520 --> 0:33:52.440
<v Speaker 2>But in your view, when it comes to fixed income,

0:33:52.760 --> 0:33:55.040
<v Speaker 2>at what threshold are you watching to where yields are

0:33:55.080 --> 0:33:57.920
<v Speaker 2>coming down so quickly that it's more of a concern

0:33:58.000 --> 0:33:59.680
<v Speaker 2>about potentially the economy.

0:34:01.800 --> 0:34:04.760
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, the bond market tends to be a great leaning indicator,

0:34:05.800 --> 0:34:07.960
<v Speaker 10>oftentimes better than the stock market for what's to come.

0:34:08.560 --> 0:34:10.880
<v Speaker 10>And right now we think the tenure treasure will be

0:34:10.920 --> 0:34:13.080
<v Speaker 10>in a trading range from three point eight to four

0:34:13.120 --> 0:34:17.000
<v Speaker 10>point five percent, and so if we see a significant

0:34:17.080 --> 0:34:19.640
<v Speaker 10>drop below three point eight percent, that would be telling

0:34:20.280 --> 0:34:22.960
<v Speaker 10>that there might be some issues right around the corner.

0:34:23.400 --> 0:34:25.719
<v Speaker 10>But right now, at these levels, we feel like it's

0:34:25.800 --> 0:34:28.600
<v Speaker 10>not signaling that anything of a significant magnitude is going

0:34:28.640 --> 0:34:29.560
<v Speaker 10>to occur in the near term.

0:34:29.840 --> 0:34:32.480
<v Speaker 6>How much do equity markets have to drop for you

0:34:32.560 --> 0:34:34.479
<v Speaker 6>to see it buying opportunity in the next few weeks?

0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:40.680
<v Speaker 10>Three percent, five percent. We're a bigger We tend to

0:34:40.760 --> 0:34:41.680
<v Speaker 10>be fully invested.

0:34:42.600 --> 0:34:44.840
<v Speaker 8>You said, you said you are fully invested.

0:34:45.800 --> 0:34:48.960
<v Speaker 10>We are, we are we We tend to stay fully invested.

0:34:50.080 --> 0:34:52.960
<v Speaker 10>We keep minimal amounts of cash on the sidelines. But

0:34:53.840 --> 0:34:56.839
<v Speaker 10>for clients that are depositing money or wanting to dollar

0:34:56.920 --> 0:34:59.719
<v Speaker 10>cost average in, we're telling them right now, you know,

0:35:00.239 --> 0:35:03.080
<v Speaker 10>let's not wait any pullback at all. Let's go ahead

0:35:03.120 --> 0:35:05.520
<v Speaker 10>and get invested because you can't time it, and we

0:35:05.600 --> 0:35:08.759
<v Speaker 10>think the next six, twelve, eighteen months are are going

0:35:08.840 --> 0:35:09.879
<v Speaker 10>to be really good for the market.

0:35:10.239 --> 0:35:12.319
<v Speaker 6>Brook May, thanks for joining us and taking the time

0:35:12.360 --> 0:35:14.960
<v Speaker 6>this afternoon. Really do appreciate it. Brooke May is managing

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<v Speaker 6>partner Evans May Wealth. She joins us this afternoon on

0:35:18.200 --> 0:35:19.840
<v Speaker 6>assume this is.

0:35:19.880 --> 0:35:23.160
<v Speaker 1>The Bloomberg Business Week podcast. I'll a a little on Apple,

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