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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing out so spect we're sitting.

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Speaker 3: It's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: That's all we see.

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Speaker 4: Most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 4: to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 5: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 6: All right, this is the ultimate kabinet.

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Speaker 7: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Stucky's one K Super Bowl sixty Challenge. I

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Speaker 1: Stucky and joining me today. We're going to be ten others,

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Speaker 1: starting off with none other than Sean Kerner. And the

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Speaker 1: goal is simple. You have one thousand hypothetical dollars. You

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Speaker 1: can get up to five bets minimum one maximum five.

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Speaker 1: Allocate them however you'd like. Whoever finishes with the most

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Speaker 1: money wins my money. If you're watching live, when someone

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Speaker 1: comes on, if you like what they have, comment that

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Speaker 1: you you know you like them to win, and if

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Speaker 1: they do win, I'll pay you as well. If my

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Speaker 1: I have one bet that pays out the more than

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Speaker 1: the max of everyone else. If I win, payouts get

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Speaker 1: reduced in half. I think it's a fun way to

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Speaker 1: talk about some bets that are still available that we like.

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Speaker 1: There's some game theory involved in this as well, so

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Speaker 1: let's get right into it. I'll bring in Sean Kerner,

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Speaker 1: the odds maker. What's going on, brother, what's up?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, happy to talk. I mean, we've been

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Speaker 8: talking about stuff off the side today, but happy to

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Speaker 8: officially talk about my punter prop and some other patriot

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Speaker 8: receiving props.

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Speaker 7: Want to hear your thoughts on those as well. But

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Speaker 7: very excited for this.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's let's get right into it. We'll

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Speaker 1: start just with your You have two beats, yes, yes,

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Speaker 1: and you're going five hundred each, one yees versus a

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Speaker 1: punter prop and the other is a parlay. What do

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Speaker 1: you got Yeah, so five hundred on each the first one.

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Speaker 1: I had to go with the punter prop. This is

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Speaker 1: the only game all year we get punter props, so

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Speaker 1: I'm going with my Michael Dixon longest punt under fifty

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Speaker 1: six and a half yards at minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I grabbed this at, you know, under fifty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half earlier in the week. I still like it

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Speaker 1: here because you know, Michael Dixon's probably one of the

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Speaker 1: best punters in the game. You know, his longest punt

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Speaker 1: this season was a sixty yarder back in week twelve

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Speaker 1: and Chamiri a DK returned that thing ninety yards for

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Speaker 1: a touchdown, and ever since then, he's kind of shifted

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Speaker 1: his approach. He still skies it.

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Speaker 8: He has, you know, one of the highest hangtimes in

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Speaker 8: the league, top five rate, so he's maintained that you know,

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Speaker 8: sky high punt. But I noticed ever since that punt

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Speaker 8: return and he's reduced his average distance by two yards

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Speaker 8: and it's actually reduced the return rate by over twenty percent.

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Speaker 8: So you have to figure facing Marcus Jones, one of

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Speaker 8: the best punt returners in the game, he's going to

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Speaker 8: continue that approach, I feel and not he probably doesn't

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Speaker 8: want to boom it and have Marcus Jones get you know,

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Speaker 8: extra couple of yards head start.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll kick his coverage.

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Speaker 8: So we've been talking about both both punters probably kind

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Speaker 8: of want to avoid longer returns. So that's why I

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Speaker 8: like under fifty six and a half. He's only cleared

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Speaker 8: this once one punt since then, So again I think

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Speaker 8: this is a this is something that he's actively trying

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Speaker 8: to do not punt it too far. So you know,

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Speaker 8: I think as long as punt will be in the

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Speaker 8: fifty four fifty five yard range and ideally he's going

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Speaker 8: to be having around fifty yards and sky it and

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Speaker 8: get Marcus Jones to fair catch it.

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Speaker 7: So that's I still love this angle.

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Speaker 1: Yep, appreciate that, Katie. Uh yeah, I've been one to

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Speaker 1: do this for the last couple of years. I'm glad

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Speaker 1: it all came together. Shout to our producers. So my

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Speaker 1: question to you, because I also like I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: and I think you agree with this longest longest punt

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Speaker 1: return under I think it's eighteen and a half. I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I'm waiting to see if it goes up.

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Speaker 1: You know, you have two electric punt returners, but each

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Speaker 1: team knows that right in the Super Bowl, have two

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Speaker 1: weeks to prepare, You're and I think both teams trust

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Speaker 1: their defenses. I think they're going to say, look, we're

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Speaker 1: not letting either one of these punt returners beat us.

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to be a major focus, is

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Speaker 1: not allowing either one of Jones or Shaheed to have

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Speaker 1: a big return and potentially change this game, which we've

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Speaker 1: seen Shihed and Jones do a number of times this year.

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Speaker 1: At my only fear for that prop and yours, is

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Speaker 1: this turns into just a complete punt fest. Like, how

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Speaker 1: many punts would there need to be for this to

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Speaker 1: not be TV where you wouldn't like it.

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Speaker 8: Well, I'm projecting Seattle for about three and a half punts,

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Speaker 8: so you know, I would say five punts is where

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Speaker 8: this might turn into more of a coin flip.

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Speaker 7: But again he's actively not trying.

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Speaker 1: Time in like past years. And then yeah, see you

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Speaker 1: got the clear difference after.

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Speaker 8: Exactly he changed his approach last year where his hang

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Speaker 8: time's much higher. He's sacrificed in distance, but the you know,

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Speaker 8: the kickoff return rules have changed things where hopefully this

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Speaker 8: doesn't happen because I have under three and a half

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Speaker 8: kickoff touchbacks. But if they decide to you know, avoid

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Speaker 8: kicking it off to Shaheed and have them to start

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Speaker 8: on the thirty five really just need one first down

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Speaker 8: and then it's impossible for him to clear this. So yeah,

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Speaker 8: I think, you know, if Seattle gets backed up and

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Speaker 8: they're on their own twenty, maybe he'll really try to

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Speaker 8: boom it. But again he's not trying to do that,

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Speaker 8: so I think if he even if he punts it

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Speaker 8: five times, I still think he'll probably try to top

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Speaker 8: out around fifty five to fifty six yards, but it

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Speaker 8: makes exciting, you know, having action on the punts always

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Speaker 8: makes it exciting. But I agree, I think the longest

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Speaker 8: punt return, I think it's a sharp angle. It opened

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Speaker 8: at twenty and a half, so I'm just kind of

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Speaker 8: mad I didn't get that number. That's why I haven't

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Speaker 8: locked it in. But it might get bet back up

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Speaker 8: to twenty and a half. But shaht he calls you know,

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Speaker 8: a ton of fair catches. Yeah, so there's there's a

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Speaker 8: chance we don't see many returns here.

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Speaker 1: Okay, And what is your second bet for the hypothetical

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Speaker 1: stuck bucks.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so my second ones five hundred dollars on this

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Speaker 8: two way parlay. Two of my favorite angles of the game,

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Speaker 8: where I'm attacking Hunter Henry over fifteen plus receiving yards

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Speaker 8: in the second quarter and Stefan Diggs fifteen plus receiving

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Speaker 8: yards in the third quarter. And I did a deep

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Speaker 8: dive on you know, quarter by quarter props, and I

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Speaker 8: love this angle for Hunter Henry specifically because for whatever reason,

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Speaker 8: he gets off to slower starts, only had five receptions

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Speaker 8: in the first quarter all season. You know, Raybon had

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Speaker 8: some opinions on why that might be, but you know

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Speaker 8: clearly when it comes to the scripted plays, Henry's not

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Speaker 8: as involved. So once you get to the second quarter,

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Speaker 8: you really see his target rate go up. So in

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Speaker 8: the second quarter this year he's average over fifteen yards

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Speaker 8: per game. His first read rate is all the way

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Speaker 8: up to twenty one percent, so you'd expect him to

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Speaker 8: get about a twenty eight percent target rate with that

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Speaker 8: kind of first read rate. So for whatever reason, when

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Speaker 8: it comes to you know, the four minute offense, the

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Speaker 8: two minute offense. Once the game turns into more, you know,

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Speaker 8: Drake may improvising. He loves going Henry's way, so I

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Speaker 8: know you're on Henry's over for the full game. If

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Speaker 8: he gets off to a slow start, that might be

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Speaker 8: like bitcoin right now, just double down on it. That'd

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Speaker 8: be the time to invest more in. My opinion is

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Speaker 8: towards the end of the first quarter, because that's when

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Speaker 8: he really gets going. So I think this second quarter

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Speaker 8: he could get one to two catches, and he's a

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Speaker 8: type of pass catcher that makes every catch count. I

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Speaker 8: mean his median per catches here is twelve yards. So yeah,

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Speaker 8: I think I think he'll clear this in the second

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Speaker 8: quarter and on the flip side, Diggs coming out of

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Speaker 8: halftime has just been remarkable. He has the second highest

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Speaker 8: yards per ut run rate in the third quarter thirty

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Speaker 8: seven percent, target right leads the league. So you have

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Speaker 8: to imagine that has to do with coaching. You know,

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Speaker 8: at halftime they make their adjustments and you know they

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Speaker 8: want to get their top receiver of the ball. So

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Speaker 8: usually come out of half is when Diggs is you know,

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Speaker 8: May's top target. So kind of you know, have some

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Speaker 8: fun here with the second and third quarter where I

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Speaker 8: think second quarter is gonna be Henry third quarter digs

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Speaker 8: parlay these two for plus five h two. So I'm

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Speaker 8: putting half of my bank roll in this half on

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Speaker 8: the safer you know what I think is a sixty

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Speaker 8: percent chance win rate. Try to find like a conservative

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Speaker 8: middle ground here for the contest.

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Speaker 1: Okay, max around twenty nine hundred. If you hit both

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Speaker 1: before you get out of here. One where are you

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Speaker 1: watching the game? And two who do you like?

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Speaker 8: Well, I'll probably going out with my wife, who is

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Speaker 8: a lifelong Patriots fan, so we're gonna try to find

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Speaker 8: a New England friendly bar for her to cheer at.

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Speaker 8: I an in line with the spread, but I will

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Speaker 8: be with my wife.

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Speaker 7: That's root for the Pats.

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Speaker 8: I think I'm going to lock in Patriots plus three

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Speaker 8: and a half for the first half.

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Speaker 1: Though I don't know. I was thinking about that as well.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, I mean right now it's minus one twenty,

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Speaker 8: so it's like, you know, most likely outcome for the

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Speaker 8: first half is, you know, Seahawks are up by three points,

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Speaker 8: don't mind cashing that, and then the second half, you know,

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Speaker 8: if they have a lead, I wouldn't want to have,

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Speaker 8: you know, plus four and a half in that type

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Speaker 8: of situation, but the plus three and a half or

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Speaker 8: the first half for the Pats is very tempting to me.

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Speaker 8: You know, we are monitoring some key injuries on defense,

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Speaker 8: so I've been kind of waiting for practice supports and

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Speaker 8: things like that, but it seems like everyone's a go.

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Speaker 8: So the closer we get, the more I'm thinking about

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Speaker 8: locking in Pat's first half. But still think, you know,

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Speaker 8: Seahawks win a close one.

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Speaker 1: Here, I would tend to agree. I'm looking at that

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Speaker 1: as well. Well. Enjoy the game, enjoy the weekend, Appreciate

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Speaker 1: all your work all year, and I've followed some of

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Speaker 1: your special teams props the touchbacks one, that's fun. I

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Speaker 1: think again, these teams trust their defenses, don't want teams

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Speaker 1: thirty five. You got two weeks to prepare some new golf,

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Speaker 1: and so I don't think there's gonna be a lot

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Speaker 1: of touchbacks. And I actually like the under. So there's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a ton of scoring. So I like that.

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Speaker 1: And then yeah, I'll be looking at the under longest

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Speaker 1: punt return. But luck in the game, brother.

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Speaker 8: And.

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Speaker 7: Thanks you too.

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Speaker 1: All right? Who are we bringing on next? It's mister

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffen roto doc Nick. I go, is it brother?

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Speaker 3: Doing great? Stuck?

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Speaker 1: How are you good? Good? I guess I'll ask you

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Speaker 1: what are you doing for the game? Who do you like?

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Speaker 1: Do you like a side or someone to win that

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Speaker 1: you have a conviction on.

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Speaker 3: I don't really have a conviction, if you know.

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Speaker 9: I do the luck rankings, which has our schedule justed,

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Speaker 9: expected scores and recency waiting those I'm almost dead on

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Speaker 9: with the market. I think I have a slight lean

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Speaker 9: towards Seattle minus four and a half. In a slight

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Speaker 9: I'm talking tiny lean to the over, which we'll get

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Speaker 9: to with one of my picks as a as a

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Speaker 9: score pick. But I'll be watching the game right here

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Speaker 9: in front of my computer because we'll be doing bet

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Speaker 9: what happens live at halftime. You don't need to watch

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Speaker 9: any of those halftime shows. It's your last chance to

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Speaker 9: bet on the NFL. You may as well bet at halftime.

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Speaker 9: Bet what happens live in the Action Network discord.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely always worth watching. And yeah, the Super Bowl halftimes

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Speaker 1: feels so long, so that'll help pass the time and

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Speaker 1: hopefully put a few extra dollars in everyone's pocket. You

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Speaker 1: have four bets. You mentioned the exact score that I

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Speaker 1: do not endorse this one because this would cause me

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Speaker 1: a lot of pain because I've Seattle under twenty five

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Speaker 1: and a half. What's your exact score prop? And is

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Speaker 1: this just a pricing thing?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, kind of.

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Speaker 9: I mean, this is not a recommended bet. It's just

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Speaker 9: kind of a bet to try to win this contest

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Speaker 9: twenty dollars on the exact score Seattle twenty six, New

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Speaker 9: England twenty one. If you take those recency weighted schedule

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Speaker 9: adjusted expected scores, we get twenty point six to twenty

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Speaker 9: five point six. So you round both of those, it's

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Speaker 9: twenty six to twenty one. And I actually think there's

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Speaker 9: a path here for Seattle to get twenty six. You

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Speaker 9: either get four field goals and two touchdowns. And you know,

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Speaker 9: Myers has kicked four field goals. I think it's in

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Speaker 9: like five games already this year, so attempted four field goals,

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Speaker 9: I should say. So there's definitely a path here, especially

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Speaker 9: with New England's improving defense. It could be a little

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Speaker 9: bit of bend don't break for them. But also, you know,

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Speaker 9: just missing an extra point or having to go for

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Speaker 9: a two point conversion. Let's say Seattle's down twenty to

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Speaker 9: twenty one late and they score a touchdown, they go

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Speaker 9: for two to try to push it back up to

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Speaker 9: a seven point lead instead of a six point lead. Right,

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Speaker 9: six points kind of silly. If you England gets a

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Speaker 9: touch in all this to do is kick the extra

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Speaker 9: point and win, So you'd go for two there. If

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Speaker 9: you missed the two, it's twenty six to twenty one,

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Speaker 9: So a couple pass here. It was three hundred fifty

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Speaker 9: to one at Fandal. It's down right now, so we

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Speaker 9: can use three hundred to one at Caesars. But I'm

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Speaker 9: pretty sure Fande will pop it back up at three

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Speaker 9: fifty to one and this has happened twice in around

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Speaker 9: four hundred fifty game with the spread and total within

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Speaker 9: a tiny window of the current spread and total, So

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Speaker 9: that would mean, you know, twice in four hundred and fifty. Well,

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Speaker 9: there's two ways twenty six twenty one could go New

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Speaker 9: England or Seattle, so it really is one in.

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Speaker 3: Four hundred and fifty.

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Speaker 9: But you have to do think the Seattle side is

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Speaker 9: much more favored since they are the favorite team here.

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Speaker 9: So I think about three fifty to one is about fair.

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Speaker 9: Maybe three hundred to one. It's just a bet to

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Speaker 9: promote the luck ranking schedule, just expected scores and try

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Speaker 9: to win this contest, all right.

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Speaker 1: Then you were looking at a third quarter prop that

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Speaker 1: Colonel went this direction as well. Where you're going with

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Speaker 1: AJ Barner in the third quarter?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I think went Henry in the second quarter or

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Speaker 9: third quarter or something. I'm going AJ Barner third quarter

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Speaker 9: touchdown at twelve to one. So we'll put one hundred

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Speaker 9: and thirty bucks on that. The thing I love here,

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Speaker 9: over thirty eight percent of AJ Barner's target volume has

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Speaker 9: come in the third quarter. They really lean on him

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Speaker 9: coming out of halftime. You know, twenty five percent would

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Speaker 9: be if every quarter was equal. He's over thirty eight percent,

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Speaker 9: and four of his seven touchdowns have come in the

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Speaker 9: third quarter. That's more than half of his touchdowns. The

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Speaker 9: longest odds of any quarter for AJ Barner touchdowns to

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Speaker 9: be the third quarter, which I think is crazy, and

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Speaker 9: it would be one thing if you know he was

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Speaker 9: just really like kind of randomly getting third quarter touchdowns

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Speaker 9: on low volume.

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Speaker 3: But this is absolutely his maximum volume quarter. So give

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Speaker 3: me a J.

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Speaker 9: Barner third quarter touchdown. Twelve to one New England versus

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Speaker 9: tight ends. They're about average in both volume and efficiency allowed.

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Speaker 9: So I don't see any reason why we can't just

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Speaker 9: stick with Barner's season long rates here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think they actually might be a little

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Speaker 1: bit more vulnerable than their schedule. I mean, their schedule

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Speaker 1: is so easy, right, and all the backup quarterbacks they face,

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Speaker 1: and you look at the weakness of that defense. I

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Speaker 1: think it's in the middle of the field, their linebackers

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Speaker 1: and coverage, So Barner might be able to take advantage.

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Speaker 1: You have a Cooper Cup angle.

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Speaker 3: I do Cooper Cup and Stucky.

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Speaker 9: You know, I always have a bet every year on

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Speaker 9: the first whether it's rush attempt yardage, or pass completion

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Speaker 9: yardage or reception yardage. I'm going Cooper Cup first reception

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Speaker 9: yards under ten and a half. It's minus one twenty

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Speaker 9: odds at DraftKings, and this is my big bet. I'm

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Speaker 9: going six hundred bucks to win five hundred here because

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Speaker 9: I have this at like eight and a half as

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Speaker 9: his median expectation. His season long reception yardage median has

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Speaker 9: been nine yards, and in the first half his air

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Speaker 9: yards have actually been two yards shorter than the second half.

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Speaker 9: And it's way more likely his first reception comes in

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Speaker 9: the first half than the second half, just because you know,

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Speaker 9: obviously it's earlier in the game. So I think you know,

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Speaker 9: it's just already way too high at ten and a half,

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Speaker 9: just based off his median reception. And you factor in

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Speaker 9: this New England Patriots defense you mentioned they're kind of

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Speaker 9: more weak with linebackers well too, wide aligned players and

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Speaker 9: slot aligned players. The New England Patriots allowed the fourth

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Speaker 9: fewest yards after the catch, which is one of those

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Speaker 9: good Cooper Cup traits yards after the catch. So if

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Speaker 9: he's getting the short targets, but then you can't get

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Speaker 9: any yards after the catch, that would be really tough

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Speaker 9: and I looked at similar players to Cooper Cup based

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Speaker 9: off a doc positional alignment and yards after the catch.

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Speaker 9: New England allows a median of seven yards per reception

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Speaker 9: to those receivers this year.

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Speaker 1: And then your final one is and by the way

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Speaker 1: to that bet. You know, early in Super Bowls, you

340
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Speaker 1: tend to see teams come out very conservative, right, like

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Speaker 1: let's not make a mistake early, let's ease our quarterback

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Speaker 1: into the game. So you tend to see like some

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Speaker 1: shorter passes get the quarterback in rhythm. So that and

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of attention on JSN, So

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Speaker 1: there could be like an easy pass, easy short pass

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Speaker 1: to Cup early on, which would help your bet and

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Speaker 1: then your final one. Raybun and I actually talked about

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Speaker 1: this on the Action of our podcast because I can

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Speaker 1: see the Super Bowl being one where a defensive player

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Speaker 1: wins the MVP. But picking one is such a crapshoot, right,

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Speaker 1: Like you've had you know, guys like Malcolm Smith, Dexter Jackson,

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Speaker 1: Like it's just random, and to cover all of those bases,

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Speaker 1: you're going with just any defensive player to win MVP.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, it's thirteen to one odds at DraftKings. They have

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Speaker 9: on the MVP tab defensive player versus other and any

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Speaker 9: defensive players thirteen to one.

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Speaker 3: Well stucky.

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Speaker 9: If we go back the last twenty two years, I'm

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Speaker 9: intentionally taking the worst possible window.

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Speaker 3: Over the last twenty two years, it's been.

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Speaker 9: Won twice, So that would be you know, one out

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Speaker 9: of eleven, which means plus one thousand as fair odds,

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Speaker 9: And that's like the worst case window because you go

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Speaker 9: further back than that, and all of a sudden we

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Speaker 9: get more defensive players winning MVP. And if you go

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Speaker 9: back to that further window, like you said it was

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Speaker 9: Dexter Jackson, there was a ten year gap of nothing,

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Speaker 9: then two and three years of defensive MVP, which actually

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Speaker 9: was broken with the Patriots versus Seahawks game Malcolm Smith.

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Speaker 3: And now we're at a nine year gap.

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Speaker 9: So it's almost like we're kind of air quote due

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Speaker 9: for that, just you know, maybe a little bit of

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Speaker 9: voter fatigue with quarterbacks and receivers winning it all the time.

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Speaker 9: Plus I just think this is a great spot defensively

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Speaker 9: for both teams. Both these quarterbacks have been turnover prone,

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Speaker 9: Drake May more so fumbling by getting sackediculous amount of times.

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Speaker 9: I mean, he's put the ball on the ground fourteen

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Speaker 9: times this year and Sam Darnold has put the ball

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Speaker 9: on the ground twelve time this year and has thrown

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Speaker 9: fourteen interceptions. So I think this is just a great

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Speaker 9: spot for both defenses to force some turnovers and if

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Speaker 9: somebody you know, takes one to the house or a

383
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Speaker 9: script sack. I really like the Seattle safeties to get

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Speaker 9: an interception of Drake May. There's a lot of ways

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Speaker 9: this could go. But instead of just picking one player,

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Speaker 9: just take the defense. Thirteen to one odds is way

387
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Speaker 9: too long.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, like this one and they're I mean, look, I

389
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:35,639
Speaker 1: think both defensive lines have huge advantages, and both defenses

390
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,120
Speaker 1: disguise very well on the back end. Both quarterbacks could

391
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Speaker 1: be very nervous here. I could see a number of

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Speaker 1: mistakes which could lead to one defensive player having a

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Speaker 1: big game. And maybe, just maybe it is the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Mike Rabel is coaching them. Mike Rabel has caught passes

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Speaker 1: for touchdowns in the Super Bowl. Maybe they have something

396
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Speaker 1: drawn up for a lineback who also has a big

397
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Speaker 1: day on the defensive side of the ball in a

398
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Speaker 1: low scoring game. All right, good stuff, Nick, your max

399
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 1: pout is the highest if you hit everything. If it's

400
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 1: twenty six twenty one, I mean that's very unlikely. But

401
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 1: if it's if you hit your other three, you're around

402
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Speaker 1: fifty three hundred. But if you hit the exact score

403
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 1: as well, you'd be around eleven thousand. Good luck, enjoy

404
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,919
Speaker 1: the game. Everyone makes sure you check out hat ya

405
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Speaker 1: on X. Look, all right, who are we bringing on next?

406
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Speaker 1: Mister Matt Moore. We are NBA resident who didn't get

407
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Speaker 1: to enjoy the playoffs because the Chiefs didn't make it. Finally,

408
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 1: but I can't really make fun of them too much

409
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Speaker 1: because my Ravens also didn't make it. Matt, NBA is

410
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 1: your forte get one? Which one one key takeaway from

411
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 1: the trade online before we get to your bets, like

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Speaker 1: the biggest impact or just a high level.

413
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Speaker 10: Jazz will be probably better next year than the win

414
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Speaker 10: total Pacers, probably a little bit under on the wind

415
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 10: total Clippers kind of save their entire franchise, and I

416
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 10: probably think I'm gonna start fading calves after really liking

417
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 10: where they were at.

418
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Speaker 1: The James Harden move has me spooked. I do not

419
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 1: enjoy that that trade, but this does this move the

420
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 1: needle for who can win it all this year? Anything happened,

421
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: did anything happen that can do that?

422
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Speaker 10: The closest one is the Missi Timberwolve is traading for

423
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Speaker 10: iod assume now that was a freaking steal of a deal.

424
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Speaker 10: They got like a defensive Havoc reaker who can also

425
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Speaker 10: handle and shoot. So the Wolves who have made the

426
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Speaker 10: Western Conference finals two years in a row, probably some

427
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 10: added value there.

428
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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, let's get to your bets. You have

429
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 1: five and you're going with the full game under I'll

430
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 1: I'll list yours out and you can hit on anyonees

431
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Speaker 1: that you want. Yep, Cooper, cup or Hunter Henry touchdown

432
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 1: either or that's around even money. You have some sack props. Splaine,

433
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Speaker 1: Chase On, Chase On, I think round two to one Splaine,

434
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Speaker 1: I think he's close to what nine to one, ten

435
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Speaker 1: to one, nine thirty was what I found in the market.

436
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: And then Shaheed anytime touchdown? Which ones do you feel

437
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 1: the most conviction on or want to talk about?

438
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 10: First off, I love that they stuck me on here.

439
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 10: I am behind Kerner and Giffen to the smartest human

440
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 10: beings on the planet. When it comes to sports betting

441
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 10: with you, and then I'm going to get followed by

442
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 10: probably Raybond, so it's like genius, genius, my dumb ass,

443
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 10: and then more geniuses. So it's a good run here

444
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 10: for me. Let's start with cover Henry touchdown. So I

445
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 10: want to look a lot at what the red zone

446
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 10: behaviors of these teams were, and with the way that

447
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 10: the Seahawks dropped back into zone coverage and the fact

448
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:49,640
Speaker 10: that Henry has been so consistently targeted over and over

449
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 10: and over again, specifically in the red zone, like this

450
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 10: looks like I love getting this bi able to get

451
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 10: either one because you're basically talking about in the red zone,

452
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 10: especially with how the Patriot you talked about this, about

453
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 10: how the Patriots and Seahawks both this guy's coverages. I

454
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 10: think this is gonna be a defensive game.

455
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 7: I'm on the under.

456
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 10: I'll talk about that a second. But being able to

457
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 10: get either one at at DraftKings for plus one oh

458
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 10: five to me was a sweetheart of a deal.

459
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 7: I could get either one.

460
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 10: My goal in here was not to go long because

461
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 10: I know our experts are giving out so many bets

462
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 10: that they were going to get hyper creative and competitive here.

463
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 10: I'm going for like singles and doubles to try and

464
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 10: sneak into winning this one. I'm basically trying to, like

465
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 10: under the cover of darkness, sneak in and steal this thing.

466
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 10: Love the under you're on. I saw that you're on

467
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 10: Seahawks under on the on the team total. I want

468
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 10: to go ahead and play the both outcomes here because

469
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 10: I think there's a good chance that this is just

470
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 10: a miserable football game. This is a joke of a

471
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 10: super Bowl made up by fake teams in a fake year,

472
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 10: fake year. If Mahomes doesn't get hurt, he leads a

473
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 10: touchdown winning drive, they come back, they make the playoffs,

474
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 10: and they win the super Bowl. Can never deny it,

475
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 10: can't prove that, can't prove I'm wrong, And so this

476
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 10: is a fake super Bowl. It's gonna be ugly and

477
00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 10: nasty and terrible. I love the under on this. The

478
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,719
Speaker 10: sacks are basically built off of I know that the

479
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:07,919
Speaker 10: Patriots aren't at like, they're not low in pressure in

480
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 10: blitz rate, but they to me, am I wrong that

481
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 10: Like Varibel's probably gonna send more pressure because he knows

482
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 10: he can disrupt Sam Darnold, and that's in a great

483
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 10: path of the Patriots to get field position if they

484
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 10: can cause turnovers with Sam.

485
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean like this is when you

486
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: changed sentences. I mean, the Patriots over the first like

487
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: thirteen fourteen weeks, they were not a heavy blitz team.

488
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 1: They're right twenty nine to thirty percent of the time.

489
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: But they've upped their blitz rates since week fourteen. They've

490
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: been around forty forty forty one percent since then. Do

491
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,679
Speaker 1: they maintain that pace? Do they pick and choose their

492
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 1: spots more this time around? Because you have to remember

493
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: they were playing right the Chargers offensive line, they were

494
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: playing you know, Jared Stidham in weather, they were playing

495
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: the Texans who didn't have Nico, they were missing offensive

496
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 1: lineman Dalton Schultz got hurt, you know, and then down

497
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: the stretch at the end of the record season, they

498
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 1: played what Quinn youers and cook for the Jets. So

499
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 1: like this is, you know, this is a much more

500
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,479
Speaker 1: dangerous team to blitz heavy against. Donald can be hit

501
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:11,880
Speaker 1: or miss against the blitz Like he can hit, He'll

502
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: hit some big plays, he'll also make some mistakes. He's

503
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 1: most vulnerable against interior pressure which the Patriots can generate,

504
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 1: and they have two of the best in the interior

505
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 1: that can get after Donald. And that's a matchup to watch.

506
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: That's seattle into your offensive line against the Pats into

507
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 1: into your defensive line, because if you can get to Donald,

508
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: especially naturally without blitzing, that's going to cause this seattle

509
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 1: all kinds of trouble. Because I don't think they're gonna

510
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: have success running the ball in early downs, but I

511
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: do expect them to have some blitz packages. I just

512
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 1: don't know on the percentage. Do they do they keep

513
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 1: it where it's been or do they go back to

514
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 1: some of their early season tendancies. I don't know, but

515
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 1: I'm sure one of their goals no matter what, is

516
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 1: to get pressure on Donald, especially on passing downs.

517
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 6: Yeah.

518
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 10: So for me, when I looked at at non linemen

519
00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 10: that we're leading in pass rush rate for the Patriots,

520
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 10: explain popped. He hasn't like, he hasn't gotten home on him.

521
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 10: But if he if he occupies the mill of that.

522
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 10: The other thing is if they flush him out. Chason

523
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 10: has been insane at chasing guys down on the perimeter

524
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,439
Speaker 10: when they've tried when they've been flushed by the pressure

525
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 10: that's created, so they chase. I've got an escalator on

526
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 10: Chason that wasn't allowed to do because Gifford Gould is

527
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 10: a war criminal. But in general, I think that the sack.

528
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 10: I love doing these sac props. It's also something really

529
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 10: great to bet during the Super Bowl. Is just like

530
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 10: hoping that the defensive lineman gets home. I'd rather do

531
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 10: that than bet on these two quarterbacks that have no

532
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 10: business being in a super Bowl.

533
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 1: H Rashida.

534
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 10: I talked about Rashid as super Bowl MVP. I'm gonna

535
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 10: be on that as well. Anytime touchdown is the safest one.

536
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 10: I like two plus as well. I know you talked

537
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 10: about the unlike about how he calls for a lot

538
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 10: of fair catches, but he's such a weapon in terms

539
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 10: of a punt return. About the ability of he actually

540
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 10: when they first got him, they did actually November have

541
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 10: some runs with him, and then they peeled off of that.

542
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 10: I do wonder if there's more of an opportunity here

543
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 10: for him to have one random run that gets him

544
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 10: and maybe into the end zone. U plus the ability

545
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 10: for him to use up the side, I think they're

546
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,120
Speaker 10: gonna absolutely bracket.

547
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, jsaid, thank you.

548
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 10: They're gonna bracket him, and so that's gonna open up

549
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 10: opportunities underneath for guys like Cup and guys like Shaheed.

550
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 7: So I like that, look as well.

551
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 1: And those are my plays for the Super Bowl. And

552
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: you're not watching the Super be watching NBA tape? Is

553
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 1: that true?

554
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 2: No?

555
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 10: Actually, I'm taking my daughter to an art exhibit exhibit

556
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 10: in Denver. That's how much I disliked the Super Bowl.

557
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:30,479
Speaker 1: I will not be.

558
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 10: I will not I will not play your pitiful games

559
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 10: with this ridiculous super Bowl.

560
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 1: There's an art exhibit open during the Super Bowl. Yeah,

561
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: there is one. There's one.

562
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 7: There's very trippy.

563
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 10: It's in Denver. It's gonna be a great time. I'm

564
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 10: gonna love it not having to watch the Patriots in

565
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 10: another Super Bowl. Look what you Look what you've done.

566
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 10: You all you all wanted to chease out.

567
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:46,959
Speaker 6: Now look what you've done.

568
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 10: We got the Patriots in this thing again.

569
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: Well, the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last year.

570
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 10: Was not not enjoy that was not.

571
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: All right? Well, good luck, Matt, enjoy the rest of

572
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 1: the NBA season. Make sure you follow him one xp

573
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: HP basketball. All right. So, Matt's Max pau around eighteen

574
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 1: fifty Curners is around twenty nine hundred knicks around eleven thousand,

575
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 1: three hundred. I'll give my pick at some point during

576
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: the show. I just have one, all right, who we

577
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: ran on? Next? Look who it is, mister Debundo, Max

578
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: colleague and good friend. Thank you for joining, Sarah.

579
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 11: It's good to be back. Leads are up to nil.

580
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: Leads leads, I assume that soccer English.

581
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 12: Yeah, they just scored two goals while I was in

582
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 12: the waiting room. So I need to just we need

583
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 12: to do this every day when I have a bet.

584
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: All right, Well, you're always welcome to join me. You

585
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: brought well first, what are you doing for the game?

586
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: Who do you like?

587
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 11: I like Seattle. I'm not dying to like four and

588
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 11: a half.

589
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 12: I think maybe first half with the game is minus

590
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 12: one twenty. That was appealing to me. I thought about

591
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 12: some alts. I haven't actually bet the side yet. I

592
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 12: have a Seahawks future that I'm hoping to get home,

593
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 12: but I will be watching with family, as I do

594
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:04,959
Speaker 12: every year. We have a big Super Bowl party at

595
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 12: our house. The last couple of years, two of the

596
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 12: last three with the Eagles in it. With me having

597
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 12: money on the Chiefs, it's been a little bit less

598
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 12: fun to sit there with a bunch of Eagles fans.

599
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 12: This year, we're all gonna be pro Seahawks, so that'll

600
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 12: be a much more enjoyable experience.

601
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 1: All right, Well, you are going you're gonna start things

602
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: off first half under twenty two and a half.

603
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 12: Yeah, I'm gonna go two hundred dollars first half under

604
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 12: twenty two and a half. I think this game sets

605
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 12: up for both teams to really struggle to run the ball,

606
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 12: and as a result of that, I don't sense that

607
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 12: either coach is going to want to take a ton

608
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 12: of chances with risk because we have two inexperienced quarterbacks

609
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 12: that have not had a ton of this level of experience,

610
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 12: and what we've seen from Drake May in these playoffs

611
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 12: has not been good. I think New England has to

612
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 12: do their best to try to limit the negative plays

613
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 12: because that's really what sunk their offense. So do they

614
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 12: go extra offensive linemen? Do they run the ball and

615
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 12: try to establish it even more? Are they going to

616
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 12: go very quick underneath passing try to prevent the you know,

617
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 12: long dropbacks, the long time to throw the pressure to

618
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 12: sack issues they've had all playoffs. I think they will,

619
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 12: and I think that results in a more conservative, slow

620
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 12: paced start traditionally. I know this has been a trend

621
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 12: in Super Bowls for decades that the second half tends

622
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 12: to be higher scoring. As the game opens up, the

623
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 12: team gets more desperate. So I went under first half

624
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 12: twenty two and a half.

625
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: Well along those lines. The Patriots have played nine Super

626
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 1: Bowls since two thousand. The common denominator one of them

627
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 1: has been McDaniels, an offensive coordinator. How many points total

628
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: do you think the Patriots have scored in their nine

629
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 1: first quarters in the.

630
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 11: Super Bowl first quarter?

631
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, total points.

632
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 12: I'm gonna go with probably average about seven, so I'll

633
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 12: go sixty little under three.

634
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: Wow, three total points they.

635
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 11: In the first quarter.

636
00:30:55,880 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 12: They've had three total total points, even against like the Eagles.

637
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 1: Yep, the Patsy. That's the only time they scored it

638
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: was nine to three. There are other games they didn't

639
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: score a single point in the first quarter. So like,

640
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: if you're like, if you think a McDaniel's gonna cook

641
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: up something, this offense can be humming. Maybe it will be,

642
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 1: but in the past it hasn't been right, been a

643
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: lot with Brady, and I do think that both teams

644
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: gonna becauserved. Both defense are going to dominate this game.

645
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: If you look back, I would like the first quarter under.

646
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: I used always play the firstquarter under, but you would

647
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 1: you in the past. You'll be able to get ten.

648
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: Now it's you know, seven and a half. And if

649
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 1: you look back of the past twenty five Super Bowls,

650
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 1: only four have had more than ten points in the

651
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: first quarter, but six of them had exactly ten, two

652
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 1: had eight or nine. So now you're talking about a

653
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 1: coin flip on seven and a half. The average has

654
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: been right around seven points. But if you look my bad,

655
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: I guess I'll give my battle right now. My bat

656
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 1: before I get to you is my bat. I'm putting

657
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 1: all one thousand, zero zero first quarter tie, and what

658
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: are the odds. I think it's plus seven to fifty.

659
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 11: Oh okay, I don't mind it.

660
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 12: So all fun and games until Meg gets stripped sacked

661
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 12: on the first play.

662
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 1: Well if you so. Six of the past twenty five

663
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 1: Super Bowls have been zero zero at the end of

664
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: the first quarter, so about one out of every four.

665
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 1: Four of the nine Patriots Super Bowls have been scoreless

666
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: at the end of the first quarter, and he almost

667
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 1: had a fifth. The Rams kicked like a fifty yard

668
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 1: field goal in the final minutes of I think back

669
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: in like two thousand and two thousand or two thousand

670
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: and two. Uh so they've had a lot of the

671
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: and I think this is going to be an undergame.

672
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: I think that it's going to be They're going to

673
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 1: play it close to the vest early on. Defense is

674
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 1: going to dominate. So I'm going zero zero tie.

675
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 11: That's tough one to beat.

676
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 12: I mean, well, you'll know early, right, you probably haven't

677
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 12: wrapped up if you hit that.

678
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 7: Yeah.

679
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: The only one that beat me is Giffin.

680
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 11: Yeah, his exact score prop.

681
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 1: If it ends twenty six to twenty one. Yeah, the paint.

682
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 11: He's gonna have to face accusations that he had the script, honestly.

683
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, Pats Falcons was yos Yer end of the first

684
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: and I had the under end of the Falcons plus

685
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 1: four and a half. The worst to rule my life.

686
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: I hope it doesn't. This one doesn't go like that,

687
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 1: although I would take it being Zeros you at the

688
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: end of the first quarter, all right, you also have

689
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 1: barn what else you got you have under thirty eight

690
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 1: and a half first downs? What's the angle year?

691
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 11: Yeah, this has kind of become my favorite prop the

692
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 11: more and more that.

693
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 12: I've thought about it. I bet it early last week.

694
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 12: It was one of the first things that I bet.

695
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 12: I was just kind of scrolling through saying, like, I've

696
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 12: never bet a first down prop in my entire life.

697
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 11: I was thinking, I don't know.

698
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 12: How to project this, I don't know how to even

699
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 12: think about going about this, and I'm just trying to

700
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 12: figure out what's the best way to approach what I

701
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 12: think is the prevailing sentiment maybe we have, which is.

702
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 11: That there might be some explosives, there might.

703
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 12: Be some negative plays, but I don't really trust either

704
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 12: of these offenses to consistently be methodical and move the

705
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 12: ball if they're not able to run it. We know

706
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 12: Seattle has struggled in third and longs this year, obvious

707
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 12: passing situations. New England's been elite defensively in those situations. Granted,

708
00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 12: the schedule hasn't been that tough. So you just look

709
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 12: around and you're saying, Okay, the only way that these

710
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 12: offenses are going to consistently generate their own offense is

711
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 12: going to be the downfield passing game. Whether Darnold can

712
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 12: hit the play action shots, whether May can hit those

713
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 12: downfield boundary throws that Stafford and Baker had so much

714
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 12: success against this Seattle defense doing that's really the challenge.

715
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 11: And so even if there is success, I don't think

716
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 11: it's going.

717
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 12: To come by way of all these first downs. So

718
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 12: if you add up average first downs this year, they're

719
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 12: right around thirty eight. So I get why the number

720
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 12: is where it is, but I think this matchup favors

721
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 12: the under heavily thirty eight and a half. So three

722
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 12: hundred dollars for me on under thirty eight and a

723
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 12: half first outs.

724
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's hard for me to see either one of

725
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 1: these offenses having sustained drives right where they're having success

726
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,839
Speaker 1: on early downs and then it's start and shorted and

727
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 1: it's going to have to be explosives or there's going

728
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: to be a lot of punts you also have. I

729
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,760
Speaker 1: think it's a pretty popular one. Yeah. Looker, under seventy

730
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 1: two and a half rushing yards, which I mean the

731
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 1: Patriots run dy has been elite when they're fully healthy.

732
00:34:59,320 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 11: That's pretty much.

733
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 12: I mean, I don't really trust the Seattle run game either.

734
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 12: And you know, if you were to see a wrinkle

735
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 12: change for Seattle, I think it's more likely to come

736
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 12: at the expense of them not being quite as run heavy,

737
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 12: and that could result in you know, more traditional drop

738
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 12: back passing, more barner usage. I think they could go

739
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 12: heavier than they normally do more often and pass out

740
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 12: of it as opposed to trying to run into the

741
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 12: teeth of this really good defense. I mean they know

742
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 12: this too, Like obviously the game plan. Everybody can see

743
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 12: what we all see, and I think it ultimately results

744
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 12: in one Holani could eat into some of the more

745
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 12: obvious passing down situations because they don't trust Walker in

746
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 12: the pass protection.

747
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 11: That could hurt him there.

748
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 12: And then the other thing being just that this run

749
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 12: offense isn't very good. I mean, they were bottom ten

750
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 12: in the league this year. They had that great game

751
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 12: against San Francisco a couple weeks ago, a bad, bad

752
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 12: run defense that was very injured at that point, that

753
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 12: had no linebackers left. But for the most part, this

754
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 12: has not been a very good run offense this year.

755
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 12: I think this total is too high and I think

756
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:01,760
Speaker 12: we've seen this get I think if it got to seventy,

757
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 12: maybe you'd pass. But seventy four and a half, seventy

758
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 12: five and a half, seventy three and a half all

759
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 12: good for me.

760
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's not an efficient rushing attack, especially

761
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 1: with Walker. The fear is here, just like, does he

762
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 1: have a fifty yard broken one big one?

763
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 2: Yeah?

764
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:15,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, But the Pats been really good in that department,

765
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:19,760
Speaker 1: especially on you know, outside zone runs where Walker can bust.

766
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 7: Some of them.

767
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 1: They've been elite in that department. You have jas N MVP.

768
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,240
Speaker 1: We'll hear a lot about that. You have one sentence

769
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 1: on that other than the obvious.

770
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 11: Yeah.

771
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 12: I mean if I think it's a low scoring game,

772
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 12: and if you think it's going to be similar to

773
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 12: kind of what twenty eighteen Rams Patriots was, maybe not

774
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 12: that extreme, then all you need is something like one

775
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 12: hundred yards and a touchdown and all of a sudden

776
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 12: you're in the mix.

777
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 11: I'm sure Brandon Anderson I just got an alert.

778
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 12: He's probably gonna talk about that later, so I'll let

779
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 12: him go more in depth. But plus five fifty. I

780
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 12: was trying to find some ways to be a little

781
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 12: different to get some upside here, and that was one

782
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 12: of them.

783
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 11: For me, So I have one hundred dollars on that.

784
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:52,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean if Janson, if it's low scoring, Jesson

785
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 1: just like hits his his where his bets are all,

786
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 1: where his lines are all set, like one hundred yards,

787
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,879
Speaker 1: you know, and the catches and a touchdown like he's

788
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 1: gonna be right there, especially if Donald has like interceptions

789
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 1: you never.

790
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 12: Know, like there's one or two plays Donald makes every

791
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 12: game that are just really awful and if that happens,

792
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 12: everybody will remember that, and if they still win, then it's.

793
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 11: Like, Okay, who we're gonna give it to?

794
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 12: And JSN is probably the next name up, Like Walker

795
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,919
Speaker 12: is not interesting to me. You could pick a defensive guy,

796
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 12: but good luck.

797
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: So speaking of defense guys, your last one, you're going

798
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,439
Speaker 1: with Briant interception plus eight fifty will why him?

799
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 12: He is just the guy I think who's most apt

800
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 12: to jump in front of one of the may deep

801
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 12: passes that he's going to be forced to throw down

802
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 12: the field as they're trailing late.

803
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 11: I think he is won.

804
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 12: Since they moved him to safety full time, has been

805
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 12: incredibly good. He gets his hands on at a lot

806
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 12: of passes, leads the team in interceptions plus eight to

807
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 12: fifty for me Kobe Bryant interception. Maybe they'll w'll wrap

808
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 12: up the Super Bowl to wrap up the MVP for

809
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 12: JSN on the final drive, Seahawks win twenty three sixteen

810
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 12: and I win this competition.

811
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 1: So I'm going first half under under thirty eight and

812
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 1: a half, first downs, walker under seventy two and a half,

813
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 1: rushing arts jests, and MVP Bryant interception. Max payout around

814
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 1: twenty one one hundred. Good luck, du Bunda, enjoy the

815
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 1: game and we'll talk soon, brother hop Paul as well.

816
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 11: Yeah, thanks for having me, guys.

817
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff from mister Dubundo. We got none

818
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 1: other than Duck coming on dipping his toe in the

819
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 1: NFL pond. Duck, how goes it? Who do you like?

820
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 1: Do you like anyone?

821
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 6: For the game?

822
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 1: What are you doing for the game?

823
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 4: I will be writing my College Basketball Weekly Situational Spots

824
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 4: piece and breaking down Navy against buck Nell like only

825
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 4: I can do, and just have.

826
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:53,240
Speaker 7: The game on on one of the TV's.

827
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'll be watching it, but I'll be working.

828
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 1: Maybe there's a we won't get in a Navy basket. Well,

829
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: my purser is gonna yell at me, baby's.

830
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 4: Rolling dangerous fifteen seed.

831
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,399
Speaker 1: They're rolling in the Patriot League. The Patriot League is very, very,

832
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 1: very down. But Benini fun point guard to watch Keyho

833
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 1: he can rack up the boards. I like that.

834
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 7: I like that.

835
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 1: But they have some some versatility with their lineups that

836
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:22,919
Speaker 1: like Key Oh is getting cooked. They can bring in

837
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 1: you know, Draper Woods. Uh yeah, They're definitely the clear

838
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 1: favorite in the Patriot But anyway, let's get to football.

839
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 1: So you are you, you're you? You watch going to

840
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 1: watch the game?

841
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, yeah, I'll be in the command center. I've

842
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 4: got the six TVs and the computers. I'll be here

843
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 4: at the desk working, but I'll have the game on

844
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 4: the TV.

845
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 1: Okay, uh, first bet you're using almost half of the

846
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 1: of your bank roll on red zone pick plus three

847
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 1: thirty reasoning.

848
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, Welle, one hundred and fifty dollars of it. So,

849
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 4: uh you know, I look at Drake May through eight

850
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 4: picks during the regular season, but Seattle's defense has been

851
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 4: pretty ball. Howking eighteen interceptions during the regular season. They

852
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 4: did well to force some pressure. Sam Darnold through fifteen

853
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 4: or fourteen picks during the regular season, and you know,

854
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 4: we see these Super Bowls called in a way where

855
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,359
Speaker 4: you might have to go deep into the playbook and

856
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 4: kind of run something fluky. I could certainly see these

857
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 4: defenses step up in the red zone and create a

858
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 4: little pressure and you just have to make a play

859
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 4: when it breaks down and you throw the ball and.

860
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 7: It gets picked off.

861
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 4: And I don't think it's that out of the realm

862
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 4: of possibility to see a red zone interception. So the

863
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 4: bet is total red zone interceptions combined from both teams

864
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 4: is over zero point five, So will there be one

865
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 4: or not? Yes?

866
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 7: Is plus three thirty.

867
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 4: So at this price, yeah, it's worth a stab here

868
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 4: to say we're going to see a red zone turnover.

869
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 4: I'll bet that it's an interception.

870
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:43,919
Speaker 1: I do think it's gonna be very difficult for either

871
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 1: team to run the ball efficiently, so I think the

872
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 1: pass rates in the red zone are going to go up.

873
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 1: And you have two quarterbacks who can be mistake prone

874
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 1: at time, So makes sense you're going with three consecutive scores.

875
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,879
Speaker 1: No for two fifty any reasoning here.

876
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 4: I mean, I would project this one to be a

877
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 4: little bit of a lower scoring game anyway, and it

878
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 4: can be hard in a game of this magnitude to

879
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 4: really get on a roll and score three straight times.

880
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,359
Speaker 4: I don't foresee this being a runaway super Bowl here,

881
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 4: and I think both these defenses will have success stopping

882
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 4: the opposition. You could see some fluky variance with a

883
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 4: missed long field goal that sets the other team up

884
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 4: the other way, a special team's touchdown, or something of

885
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 4: that nature, but I'm not wanting to bet on that.

886
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 4: I see this one match between teams that I think

887
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,839
Speaker 4: are fairly even in this one. This would make sense

888
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 4: to make the bet the other way in a college

889
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 4: game or in a super Bowl with a high total

890
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,880
Speaker 4: in the low to mid fifties. But with the total

891
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 4: set the way it is, I do think we'll get

892
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:44,839
Speaker 4: a real competitive game, and I think that points will

893
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 4: be at a premium. So I'm going to go no

894
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:47,479
Speaker 4: here at plus money on this prop.

895
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 1: And then you're going half on about five d on

896
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 1: the game under talked about that, and then your last

897
00:41:55,120 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 1: long shot is for one hundred. You're going on a

898
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,240
Speaker 1: walk off field goal, yes, plus ten sixty.

899
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you really need to get the game

900
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 4: script right here on this one. But there's a lot

901
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 4: of ways that this can happen if the if there's

902
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,920
Speaker 4: a training team by one or two, or if the

903
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 4: game tied in the final minutes, time and score, you

904
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 4: can do it that way where if overtime is in play,

905
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,720
Speaker 4: you get a next score wins type of situation. Jason

906
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 4: Myers was forty one to forty eight on field goal

907
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 4: attempts this season, and of course Andy Borgalas was twenty

908
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:28,360
Speaker 4: seven of thirty two. I think both these teams have

909
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 4: reliable field goal operations that you feel pretty good about

910
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 4: trotting out there. Kind of a fun bet, but I

911
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 4: can definitely see this one coming down to a walkoff

912
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 4: field goal.

913
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 7: There.

914
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 1: I think there's only been one in Super Bowl history.

915
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 1: I don't know what sorry the Bills when the Bills

916
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 1: missed one, Yeavinitari against the Rams.

917
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 4: So I mean Scott Norwood have missed one.

918
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, Normod missed one. I don't know if there was

919
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 1: like if it was a true because it has to

920
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: be a true walk off is to win the bet,

921
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: so it can't be like one second line. I don't know.

922
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:02,239
Speaker 1: I'm trying to the Norwood one. I don't know if

923
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 1: there was like four seconds left or not or three.

924
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 1: I don't I can't remember, but all right, So duck

925
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: O and red zone pick yes No. Three consecutive scores

926
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:17,440
Speaker 1: the under full game under for half of his bank roll,

927
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 1: and then a long shot on walk off field goal

928
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:27,359
Speaker 1: yes max pay out around twenty three fifty duck Enjoy

929
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 1: the college basketball slate I'll see tomorrow live show Big

930
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 1: Bets on campus ten thirty am Eastern. Make sure you

931
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 1: check that out and make sure you check out all

932
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 1: Ducks articles. Does great work. Find him on Twitter at

933
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 1: step on a Duck one. Good luck, enjoy the game,

934
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 1: but brother.

935
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 3: Cheers brother, see you.

936
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 1: All right? We got none other than Grant rocking Seahawks gear. Grant,

937
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:57,439
Speaker 1: how goes a brother?

938
00:43:58,440 --> 00:43:58,800
Speaker 2: Oh?

939
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 7: Pretty good. I was actually at the conference championship game,

940
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 7: and so I am more excited for the Super Bowl

941
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 7: than I have for a decade since we were last

942
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 7: in there.

943
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 1: Well, where were you for the last one? And what

944
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 1: was that? Like?

945
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 7: I was up in the hawks nest at the stadium

946
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:20,319
Speaker 7: and it was it was loud, it was energeic. I

947
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 7: was down there tailgating for a few hours at one

948
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 7: of the bars and it was just absolutely incredible. I

949
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 7: haven't been to that stadium since. I want to say

950
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 7: like two thousand whenever the beast quake was so almost

951
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 7: a decade ago, and yeah it was. It was just

952
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 7: an absolute blast.

953
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 1: What do you doing for the game this year?

954
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 7: I kind of wanted to have a big suerule party,

955
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 7: and then I realized I'm going to be way too

956
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 7: focused on it to do anything. So we're just having

957
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 7: like five or six people over here having some drinks

958
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 7: watching the game. Hopefully my daughter doesn't demand we turn

959
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 7: off the TV because that's not going to happen, and

960
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 7: she's just gonna scream if she wants that. So I've

961
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:03,880
Speaker 7: just hadding some drinks here, having people over and and sweating,

962
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 7: sweating all my bets.

963
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 1: Well, I wish you lock. What's your confidence level? Like

964
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 1: how nervous? Are you?

965
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 7: Not that nervous?

966
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 1: Honestly, like I I You're not that nervous.

967
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 7: It worries me that the public is on the Seahawks,

968
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 7: because I think the four and a half minus four

969
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 7: and a half is a good bet. Like I think

970
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:26,399
Speaker 7: that they're better at pretty much every position. I think

971
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 7: the Patriots are distinctly worse than a lot of people

972
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 7: think because their schedule and how bad Drake may has

973
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 7: been versus good defenses. So I'm not terribly worried, and

974
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 7: I probably really should be, but I mean it also

975
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 7: helps that one of my biggest bets every single year

976
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 7: is on the coin flip, and so that keeps the

977
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 7: nerves down on the game up until after the coin flip,

978
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 7: and then then they really said it. And if especially

979
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 7: if it's.

980
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 1: Not tails, that's what what are you wrong with? Heads

981
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 1: or tails?

982
00:45:58,280 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 7: Tails?

983
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 1: Okay, well what tails to start the game off? I

984
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,400
Speaker 1: will say, out of all the Super Bowls I'm betting

985
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 1: NFL for over twenty years, I can't remember a team

986
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 1: that I had like less conviction on how good they are.

987
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 1: I mean, at this point in the year usually have

988
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 1: a really good feel of where a team should be rated.

989
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 1: There's so like the Patriots because of their schedule, and

990
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 1: then they get into the playoffs, there's weather, backup, quarterbacks,

991
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 1: backup off like like, there's not a huge data set

992
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 1: of this team playing like real competition, which I think

993
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 1: makes this a bit more intriguing. Hopefully no one gets

994
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 1: hurt for the Seahawks, especially where it's being played, but

995
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:38,360
Speaker 1: I'm surprised you're not going to know you have no

996
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 1: touchdown bets. Here, you have two bets. I don't even

997
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 1: know how you're splitting them up. You didn't even told

998
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 1: me your first is well for I guess the last.

999
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:47,759
Speaker 1: If you haven't, do you have a long shot touchdown bet?

1000
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:51,239
Speaker 7: I don't. Honestly, the only one I really have is

1001
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 7: Stevenson just because the odds were at plus one sixteen

1002
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 7: seemed a little high, especially after his snap count in

1003
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:00,360
Speaker 7: the last game. But yeah, I just don't have. I

1004
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 7: don't think this is gonna be terribly high scoring, kind

1005
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 7: of like I don't mind shit Heed, I don't mind

1006
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 7: Cooper Cup. But realistically, like I don't have a ton

1007
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 7: of touchdown bets in this just because I don't think

1008
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 7: it's gonna be terribly high scoring. I don't think the

1009
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,439
Speaker 7: ground game is going to do much. It's mostly going

1010
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 7: to be like both these run defenses are great in

1011
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 7: the Patriots have been incredible so far in the playoffs

1012
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,279
Speaker 7: against the runs. So I think there's a spot here

1013
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:27,879
Speaker 7: where the Seahawks have been just or this year, been

1014
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 7: pretty run heavy. They're probably going to be a bit

1015
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,439
Speaker 7: more pass heavy in the spot. And so that's kind

1016
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 7: of where both my bets tend to lean and I

1017
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 7: think there's gonna be a high concentration of passing on

1018
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 7: the Seahawks, and a lot of it I think is

1019
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 7: going to go to JSN.

1020
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 1: So that those are your two bets you have js

1021
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:45,959
Speaker 1: N MVP. How much of the thousand are you putting

1022
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:47,280
Speaker 1: on that five hundred?

1023
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1024
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,439
Speaker 7: Sorry, I misunderstood some of the things. I was trying

1025
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 7: to be sneaky, you know what I'm doing, and so

1026
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 7: it'll be five hundred on the other one too. But yeah,

1027
00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 7: JSN for MVP, like I did, I don't normally bet

1028
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 7: this market. I did way too deep of a dive

1029
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 7: into all the Super Bowl MVPs of the last like

1030
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 7: twenty five years, and presently enough, five of the last

1031
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:13,240
Speaker 7: twenty one MVPs have been wide receivers. We haven't seen

1032
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 7: much of it in the last like fifteen because it

1033
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 7: was concentrated like a five year span. It was three

1034
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 7: wide receiver MVPs and then not for like seven or

1035
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 7: eight years in tel Edelman. But looking at all their lines,

1036
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:27,920
Speaker 7: like all of them are right around like five to

1037
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 7: eleven catches is the range the receiving yards was right

1038
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 7: in between ninety two and one hundred and forty one,

1039
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 7: and then multiple of them, one without a touchdown. Note

1040
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 7: wide receiver had more than two touchdowns.

1041
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:41,719
Speaker 10: That was Cup.

1042
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:47,320
Speaker 7: So looking at just jsn's median lines like the lines

1043
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:51,879
Speaker 7: on the books, ninety five yards, touchdown, seven to eight

1044
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 7: catches like that lines up almost perfectly with pretty much

1045
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 7: every single wide receiver's line outside of like extra twenty

1046
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 7: yards or maybe not a touchdown. So we haven't seen

1047
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 7: a wide receiver that has had this concentration of the

1048
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 7: offense of target share in the Super Bowl since I

1049
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 7: guess Cooper Cup is probably about the closest, and he

1050
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 7: won MVP. It's thirty five percent by far the highest

1051
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 7: in the league outside of Garrett Wilson, who is just

1052
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:22,680
Speaker 7: two percent lower. Like the offense is so concentrated on him,

1053
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 7: and I know the Patriots may try and scheme him

1054
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 7: out in this spot. They've this year not been great

1055
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 7: versus wide receiver ones just the way they run their defense.

1056
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 7: Obviously that could change, but as it sits now, like

1057
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 7: it's historically a QB centric award, But Donald isn't the

1058
00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 7: name recognition of Mahomes, a Brady of Eli, Manning, of Rogers,

1059
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:47,319
Speaker 7: a breeze of Manning and Manning like it's he's not

1060
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 7: a brand name, so that may lend more towards JSN,

1061
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 7: and most likely if Jason's getting his normal target share

1062
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 7: in this every single game where Donald has had a

1063
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 7: big game, you can kind of look at the numbers

1064
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 7: from that game, look at jsn's numbers, and eighty percent

1065
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 7: of the time, if they just have those stats, it's

1066
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 7: most likely going to be JASN as the MVP and

1067
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 7: not Donald because Donald's had what two games over three

1068
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:14,799
Speaker 7: hundred passing yards. Both those games where he had three

1069
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 7: hundred passing yards, JSN went for ten receptions one hundred

1070
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 7: and fifty three yards in a touchdown, and the other one,

1071
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 7: which was against Tampa Bay, he still had eight receptions

1072
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 7: one hundred and thirty two yards in a touchdown. So

1073
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 7: if Donald goes off for a big game, JSN is

1074
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 7: likely to go off for a statistically bigger game. So

1075
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 7: that's why I'm on JSN plus five fifty, especially with

1076
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:38,120
Speaker 7: the Patriot with the Seahawks rather having round a sixty

1077
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 7: eight percent chance of winning. So that's that's why I'm

1078
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 7: rolling with JSN.

1079
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 1: And then Donald over thirty five pass attempts, and yeah,

1080
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, if he just hits his bets like

1081
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 1: I've talked about this, like hits where he's projected to

1082
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:58,600
Speaker 1: score a touchdown around you know, ninety to one hundred

1083
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 1: yards and he gets seven and it's a lower scoring

1084
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 1: game that the Seahawks win. He's gonna be right there

1085
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 1: and you're gonna love having plus five p fifty. So

1086
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:10,920
Speaker 1: thanks for joining, Grant. Enjoy the game. I wish you'd

1087
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 1: better luck this time around against the Patriots, and I

1088
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 1: hope it doesn't come down to the one yard line

1089
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 1: for your blood pressure, you and me both, all right, brother,

1090
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 1: thanks for joining.

1091
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 7: See it all right?

1092
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 1: So Grant splitting his two bets off js N MVP

1093
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 1: and Sam Darnold thirty five plus pass attempts. Next up,

1094
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 1: my man, Hevin Abrams. Got to check out his Super

1095
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 1: Bowl primer. His primer every week. It's always unless read

1096
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:44,680
Speaker 1: on the action I work out. Heaven sounds like the

1097
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:47,840
Speaker 1: cops plumbing for you up in New York. How does it? Yeah?

1098
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 5: All the time, I live by a hospital. This is

1099
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 5: what I get twenty four to seven, So there's always

1100
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:52,400
Speaker 5: something outside.

1101
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 1: It's entertaining.

1102
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:55,879
Speaker 5: I'm doing well though, stuck. This is fun, this is good.

1103
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 7: I like this all right.

1104
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 1: Well, maybe someone doesn't want you to give out these bets.

1105
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 1: Let's get them out quick. They're for you. Correct, there's

1106
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 1: a lot of JSN love so far. Yep, you're going

1107
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:08,840
Speaker 1: to keep that going. Your first bet JSN first touchdown

1108
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:13,439
Speaker 1: combined with MVP. Yeah, one hundred dollars twenty five to one.

1109
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I'm taking two MVP bets. This is

1110
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 5: the first one. I mean, everyone's talked about Jaysn and

1111
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:21,280
Speaker 5: just the five fifty wasn't enough for me because I'm

1112
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:23,879
Speaker 5: go big or go home with this because i feel

1113
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 5: like that's the way to game theory and win this contest.

1114
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 5: Everyone knows how good he is. Forty four percent of

1115
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:30,800
Speaker 5: Seattle's receiving yards dur in the regular season. It's the

1116
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:32,840
Speaker 5: highest mark for any team and player to make the

1117
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:35,239
Speaker 5: Super Bowl in the last fifty years. So to me,

1118
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:37,319
Speaker 5: that's one angle. And the Patriots, you know, haven't been

1119
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:40,880
Speaker 5: great against wide receiver ones thirty first Sutton had a touchdown,

1120
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 5: even Jayden Higgins without Nico Collins was six for fifty nine.

1121
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 5: So I like that. And seven first touchdowns for JSN

1122
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 5: this year for Seattle. And the interesting part is Sharp

1123
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:52,879
Speaker 5: and I had six and he has not in this game,

1124
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 5: So I do feel like there's like an added bonus

1125
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 5: there without him, who kind of was the touchdown king

1126
00:52:58,160 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 5: early in the game for them.

1127
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 1: And you can't really like the Patriots when they're full strength,

1128
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 1: like no one runs for touchdowns on them. Correct, you're

1129
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 1: both the teams. I think you're gonna have to throw

1130
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 1: to score in the red zone. Your other MVP bet

1131
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,680
Speaker 1: was May to sport touchdown and him to win MVP

1132
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:13,279
Speaker 1: ten to one.

1133
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I just feel like if New England

1134
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:18,800
Speaker 5: is going to win this game, which was my prediction

1135
00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 5: when we've had to do all that stuff for Action

1136
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 5: Network on the article, it's a Seattle defense versus mobile quarterbacks.

1137
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 5: They've allowed the second most QB scramble yards five point

1138
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:30,319
Speaker 5: three yards per carry eight point one in the playoffs.

1139
00:53:30,600 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 5: And to me, it's also about the scrambling part of this,

1140
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 5: Like in the four games versus top ten pressure eight teams,

1141
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 5: ten point four dropbacks resulted in a sack, which would

1142
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:42,719
Speaker 5: be sixth most of twenty seven quarterbacks. And in those

1143
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 5: games against those high pressure teams, thirteen scrambles, one hundred

1144
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 5: and fourteen yards and a touchdown. So to me, if

1145
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 5: he were to win MVP. A lot of people like

1146
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 5: him for a touchdown, so I will go a little

1147
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 5: b higher one hundred and fifty on ten to one

1148
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:57,799
Speaker 5: for him to do both in this game.

1149
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 1: And then you have two players to be the first

1150
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,840
Speaker 1: to get to twenty plus receiving yards of Shaheed at

1151
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 1: thirteen to one and Holland's at eleven to one. I

1152
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 1: didn't you will.

1153
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, obviously only one can hit, but I

1154
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:13,280
Speaker 5: am taking two dart shots at this. We saw Shaheed

1155
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:15,319
Speaker 5: get an early look in the conference championship game versus

1156
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 5: the Rams. Interesting enough, he also has a first quarter

1157
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 5: target in four of his last six games since Week fifteen,

1158
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 5: wide receiver snaps increasing. We also saw, which is actually

1159
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 5: kind of interesting, that they aren't scared of giving him

1160
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:31,359
Speaker 5: work right after a kicker punt. His end around last

1161
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:33,760
Speaker 5: week came right after he had a twenty one yard

1162
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 5: kick return, so they might just throw him back on

1163
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:39,239
Speaker 5: the field. And again, I just think he's gonna get

1164
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 5: a bunch of looks in this game and it might

1165
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 5: be early for them to take a shot. So that's Shaheed.

1166
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:46,480
Speaker 5: On Holland's point, this is pretty simple. He's the deep

1167
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 5: ball man for them. Thirteen point three a dot this year,

1168
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:53,280
Speaker 5: also pretty sneaky. He is the second most first quarter

1169
00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 5: targets for New England this entire season, which actually kind

1170
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:58,279
Speaker 5: of surprised me. So I am going to take a

1171
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 5: shot on both of them to get an early big

1172
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:03,359
Speaker 5: catch that will catch these bets.

1173
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:05,920
Speaker 1: And then your final one. I like this touchdown, but

1174
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:09,640
Speaker 1: you're combining barner touchdown with one plus rush yard plus

1175
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:10,280
Speaker 1: four to fifty.

1176
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, so Barner is plus one eighty five around the

1177
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:15,359
Speaker 5: market basically to score a touchdown. If you add him

1178
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 5: to get a one plus rush yard, it is plus

1179
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 5: four to fifty. So I'm tossing four hundred on this now.

1180
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 5: No sharps in this game makes me love this bet

1181
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,320
Speaker 5: even more. We've talked about and Dabundo did like not

1182
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:28,560
Speaker 5: many people like Walker, they think he can get stuffed. Well,

1183
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 5: I think that also is why you might mix in

1184
00:55:30,680 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 5: Barner here played twenty five snaps on the field for

1185
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 5: run plays in the Division round, none in the conference championship.

1186
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 5: So lol, that is part of the bet. And if

1187
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 5: you look at our TAN projections for touchdowns, Barner is

1188
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:45,479
Speaker 5: the second highest. So and the thing that's interesting stuck

1189
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:48,439
Speaker 5: they could be independent events, right, Barner, as we talked

1190
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 5: about some people, I forgot someone likes him in the

1191
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:52,719
Speaker 5: third quarter if he catches a touchdown. There's also a

1192
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 5: time we're in the middle of the field on a

1193
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 5: fourth and one, he might get a rushing yard. So

1194
00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:58,880
Speaker 5: I'll combine the both of them at plus four to fifty.

1195
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 1: All right, we have jazz n first touchdown MVP twenty

1196
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 1: five to one, May touchdown MVP ten to one, Hollins

1197
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 1: first to twenty eleven to one, she Ead first to

1198
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:10,200
Speaker 1: twenty thirteen to one, and Barnard touchdown plus one. Rush

1199
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:12,640
Speaker 1: you out plus four to fifty. Obviously, you can't hit

1200
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:15,200
Speaker 1: both the MVPs. You can't hit both the first twenty

1201
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:20,320
Speaker 1: So if your max faut, if everything goes right, fifty six,

1202
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:21,839
Speaker 1: one hundred. What are you doing for the game?

1203
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:22,279
Speaker 7: What do you like?

1204
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:28,799
Speaker 5: I took as our correct score twenty seventeen Patriots. I've

1205
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:31,080
Speaker 5: got two parties to go to. I am under a

1206
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 5: half on those parties. I think I'm going to stay

1207
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 5: home and watch the game. But that's my feeling. I

1208
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:37,680
Speaker 5: think this is going to be a really interesting game.

1209
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:40,560
Speaker 5: I mean, listen, talk about like long odds. Both teams

1210
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,920
Speaker 5: like sixty and eighty to one. Never seen that before,

1211
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 5: so kind of hard to get a feeling here, So

1212
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 5: I will go with the upset.

1213
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:50,800
Speaker 1: Havenant invited the two parties going to neither. That doesn't

1214
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 1: surprise me. All right, Evan, thanks for joining. I'll see

1215
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:56,759
Speaker 1: you on the Favorites co. I'll talk to you next week.

1216
00:56:56,800 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 1: Brolet it go, all right? Next up, we have none

1217
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 1: other than Billy Warded does tremendous work for us, especially

1218
00:57:05,600 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 1: when it comes to UFC. And you have my favorite

1219
00:57:09,920 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 1: collection of vets because we have four squares which you

1220
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 1: bet for fifty dollars each, and then you have a

1221
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 1: UFC a cross Sport, UFC parlay. So we'll start with

1222
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:27,120
Speaker 1: the squares. You have Seattle six, New England one eighty

1223
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:30,320
Speaker 1: to one, Seattle seven, New England one fifty five to one,

1224
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:33,960
Speaker 1: Seattle seven, New England zero twenty five to one, Seattle six,

1225
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 1: New England zero forty to one. Is this just pricing

1226
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 1: or do you have anything else you want to add?

1227
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 13: It's more of a strategy thing here. You know, I'm

1228
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 13: not trying to finish with the most dollars. I'm trying

1229
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:46,480
Speaker 13: to win the contest, right, and those are different goals

1230
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 13: some of the time. If you guys heard Nick earlier

1231
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 13: and you talked about his protected scores or the luck

1232
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 13: rating of protected scores, trying to just capture as many

1233
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 13: of those outcomes as possible, but I could also get

1234
00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:00,640
Speaker 13: paid out with you know, a seventeen to ten final

1235
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 13: score or something like that, where if you're going for

1236
00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:05,160
Speaker 13: just the straight up final score, you obviously have to

1237
00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 13: hit that, So trying to catch as much of the

1238
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 13: upside as.

1239
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 3: Possible with those.

1240
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:14,200
Speaker 13: I am blocked by Nick's final score prediction, though if

1241
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 13: we get it there, I can't catch him. So I

1242
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:18,680
Speaker 13: was hoping he wouldn't go with that. I kind of

1243
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 13: knew he would go with that because we've discussed this

1244
00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 13: a little bit. But I figured I've got three other

1245
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 13: squares plus different ways of getting to that number that

1246
00:58:27,440 --> 00:58:30,560
Speaker 13: wouldn't also pay Nick out. So that's my biggest competition

1247
00:58:30,640 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 13: right now is I could still have a really good

1248
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 13: day and eventually lose to doctor Nick.

1249
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 1: Yeah. For those who are tuning in late or didn't

1250
00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: catch Nick's segment, he has he bet Seattle twenty six,

1251
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 1: New England twenty one for three hundred to one, and

1252
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 1: you have Seattle six Newing one. I don't like the vibes.

1253
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 1: I have Seattle under twenty five and a half total points,

1254
00:58:54,920 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: and everyone keeps talking about Seattle's going twenty six.

1255
00:58:58,480 --> 00:59:00,880
Speaker 13: Or sixteen or seventeen. Though I don't need him get twenty,

1256
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:02,200
Speaker 13: so be fun for me. That's why I went with

1257
00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 13: the squares.

1258
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're growth fruiting for not twenty six to twenty one.

1259
00:59:05,960 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 1: It's from the same pile. Give me seventeen ton and

1260
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:10,960
Speaker 1: I'm happy, Okay, And then we have your final one

1261
00:59:11,680 --> 00:59:17,439
Speaker 1: is a UFC bet and I'm not even gonna try

1262
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:20,320
Speaker 1: more takedowns than Almeida Kunev. I don't even know how

1263
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 1: to pronounced that. Uh yeah close. Then Sam Donald passing

1264
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:27,800
Speaker 1: touchdowns plus one ten for eight hundred of your thousand.

1265
00:59:28,720 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 1: I know you know your stuff in UFC. I do not,

1266
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:33,560
Speaker 1: So do you want to spell this one out?

1267
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 6: Yeah?

1268
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 13: I won't get too deep into it. Schanzerla and I

1269
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 13: both gave out. He gave out this version of the

1270
00:59:38,760 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 13: prop with Drake May rather than Sam Donald it minus

1271
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,520
Speaker 13: one fifteen for the sake of the contest. I wanted

1272
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:46,600
Speaker 13: to plus money. My hope here is if I catch

1273
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:50,000
Speaker 13: this and everybody else's crazy long shots myths that I

1274
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 13: can sneak by with a win just off this one bet.

1275
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:55,760
Speaker 13: The short version of it is, we have Donald projected

1276
00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:59,040
Speaker 13: for like one point seven passing touchdowns. I have Almeida

1277
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 13: himself projected for two point eight takedowns, so he could

1278
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:04,800
Speaker 13: cover it himself even without his opponent. But it's also

1279
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:06,960
Speaker 13: a range of outcomes thing, and thirty percent of his

1280
01:00:07,200 --> 01:00:10,120
Speaker 13: UFC fights, al Maadea has got at least six takedowns.

1281
01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:11,320
Speaker 1: I don't see Sam.

1282
01:00:11,160 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 13: Darnold throwing six touchdowns here, even in the ceiling case,

1283
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:16,000
Speaker 13: so that one could be wrapped up Saturday if I

1284
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:18,040
Speaker 13: made it does what he does about a third of

1285
01:00:18,040 --> 01:00:21,000
Speaker 13: the time. And yeah, I also like the other version

1286
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 13: of that with Drake may but for the sake of

1287
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 13: the contest trying to get the plus money. The one

1288
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:27,560
Speaker 13: thing I will note, it's a three way market, so

1289
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 13: if they tie, I lose, I don't get the stake back,

1290
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 13: so that would be a horrible way to lose this contest.

1291
01:00:32,640 --> 01:00:35,840
Speaker 1: If one of my squares hit I liked it, I'm

1292
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:38,040
Speaker 1: following along on this. What time is it on Saturday?

1293
01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 1: The event starts at five. That's a main card fights,

1294
01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 1: so probably about nine Eastern, I would say, okay, all right,

1295
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:49,440
Speaker 1: good stuff. I will be following along on that. And

1296
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 1: your max payout I guess is well, you don't want

1297
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 1: the nick one, so your max payout if you get

1298
01:00:57,880 --> 01:01:03,160
Speaker 1: the other best square and you know made about thirty

1299
01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:05,480
Speaker 1: six thirty. Who do you like in the game? We

1300
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:06,000
Speaker 1: are you watching?

1301
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just hanging out here at home.

1302
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:11,040
Speaker 13: I have similar feelings to Matt Moore about the Super

1303
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:14,080
Speaker 13: Bowl with my Lions missing the playoffs. Also a lot

1304
01:01:14,080 --> 01:01:16,320
Speaker 13: of PTSD being on here with you stuck. Last time

1305
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 13: I was on with you Bet What Happens Live, the

1306
01:01:18,680 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 13: Lions had a commanding lead in the NFC Championship over

1307
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:23,960
Speaker 13: the forty nine ers, somehow tanked it in the second half,

1308
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:27,080
Speaker 13: so getting getting deep in my fields might avoid some

1309
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 13: of the Super Bowl here because of that.

1310
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:31,200
Speaker 1: We're I'm a Ravens fan or Chiefs fan. We're all

1311
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:34,720
Speaker 1: which is all sad today. Yep, we're all all right, brother.

1312
01:01:34,800 --> 01:01:37,560
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining. Good luck in you UFC UFC Betting

1313
01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 1: Preview Action our podcast with John Zerillas Live. Make sure

1314
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:43,040
Speaker 1: you check that out and jul your weekend. Thanks for

1315
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 1: coming on, brother. Thanks all right. Next up, we have

1316
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:53,440
Speaker 1: none other than Brandon Anderson. I was extremely excited to

1317
01:01:53,480 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 1: see what you came up with here. You're going to

1318
01:01:56,920 --> 01:02:01,320
Speaker 1: have some interesting long shots. I will ask you first,

1319
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 1: who do you like in the game? And where you watching?

1320
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:07,440
Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean I'm wrecking the Seahawks green shirt. So

1321
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:11,240
Speaker 14: Seahawks all the way, Seahawks seventy to one from last February.

1322
01:02:11,360 --> 01:02:14,000
Speaker 14: Just hanging on here, trying to get this over the line.

1323
01:02:14,080 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 14: So I'll be nervous. I'll be watching with maybe just

1324
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:18,880
Speaker 14: a couple of friends. I get invited to a feel

1325
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 14: like church, families, homes, too many kids, too many distractions.

1326
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 6: I gotta like.

1327
01:02:22,960 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 14: Focus in on the game, get like the Velveta chili,

1328
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:27,200
Speaker 14: cheese dip and chips.

1329
01:02:27,400 --> 01:02:29,200
Speaker 6: Probably just watch with a couple of friends at my house.

1330
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:32,160
Speaker 1: It is very different when you're a team or for

1331
01:02:32,240 --> 01:02:34,720
Speaker 1: betting purposes, you have a big future and like if

1332
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:37,120
Speaker 1: you just it's just a regular other game and you

1333
01:02:37,120 --> 01:02:40,840
Speaker 1: have some bets, like you have to the viewing experience

1334
01:02:40,880 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 1: that you want to cultivate is extremely different in those

1335
01:02:44,040 --> 01:02:46,360
Speaker 1: two scenarios, like when the Ravens win the Super Bowl, Like,

1336
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 1: I don't want to be I don't want anyone around

1337
01:02:48,600 --> 01:02:52,680
Speaker 1: me and then obviously it's much different this year with

1338
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,160
Speaker 1: the Ravens not there. But let's get into your bets.

1339
01:02:55,640 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 1: You have five bets? Are you hedging it all on

1340
01:02:58,560 --> 01:02:58,920
Speaker 1: the future?

1341
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:00,720
Speaker 6: By the way, I'm not a hadjer.

1342
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:02,760
Speaker 14: I just like to believe what I believe in and

1343
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:04,120
Speaker 14: go for the win. You want to give away all

1344
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:05,320
Speaker 14: the ad you work so hard to get?

1345
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:11,840
Speaker 1: Would you consider a big middle if you're up or

1346
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:14,000
Speaker 1: do you think if they're up it's a runaway?

1347
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:15,040
Speaker 6: Yeah?

1348
01:03:15,320 --> 01:03:19,480
Speaker 14: I traditionally try to avoid a live bet situation. I

1349
01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 14: tend to be pretty good at not betting my emotions

1350
01:03:23,000 --> 01:03:25,880
Speaker 14: before the game, but I have no control during the game.

1351
01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 14: I have learned, like you, look at all my different

1352
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:31,360
Speaker 14: betting app results, live betting is just atrocious for me,

1353
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:35,320
Speaker 14: so I typically stay away. In this scenario, I have

1354
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 14: thought about, maybe, you know, like Seattle's up fourteen to

1355
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 14: three or something. Second quarter, do I look at like

1356
01:03:42,280 --> 01:03:46,200
Speaker 14: a Drake may MVP bet in that spot to just say, Okay,

1357
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:48,680
Speaker 14: if the Patriots could come back, what's the path. It's

1358
01:03:48,680 --> 01:03:50,800
Speaker 14: probably going to be Drake lagging it up at that point.

1359
01:03:51,280 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 14: So maybe at that point, but I think too, I'm

1360
01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:57,160
Speaker 14: team content. Most people I can give them like a

1361
01:03:57,320 --> 01:03:59,200
Speaker 14: day or a week to get their bets in, but

1362
01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:01,560
Speaker 14: people are not going to necessarily get the tail and

1363
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:05,280
Speaker 14: follow the live bet anyway. So I feel like the

1364
01:04:05,440 --> 01:04:09,240
Speaker 14: fair action for folks following is to stand by the bet.

1365
01:04:09,320 --> 01:04:11,720
Speaker 14: And you know, the best way you get the long

1366
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:13,920
Speaker 14: shot better, The best way you know you're doing a

1367
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:17,280
Speaker 14: while is to lose some heartbreakers. So nearly lost the

1368
01:04:17,280 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 14: Stafford heartbreaker last night. I don't even know if he's

1369
01:04:20,240 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 14: the right pick, honestly, but we'll take that fifty to

1370
01:04:22,760 --> 01:04:25,560
Speaker 14: one and let's keep vanquishing Patriots with the Super Bowl.

1371
01:04:26,240 --> 01:04:27,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with the live betting. I'm still trying

1372
01:04:27,880 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 1: to figure out how to best do that for the app,

1373
01:04:29,840 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 1: Like I just put it in for pennies as an alert,

1374
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:34,040
Speaker 1: and like is it right? No one wants to see

1375
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 1: someone put in like a big bet live because it's

1376
01:04:35,680 --> 01:04:37,480
Speaker 1: so first of all, I have to bet it, then

1377
01:04:37,520 --> 01:04:39,480
Speaker 1: put it in the app and has to come to you.

1378
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:40,920
Speaker 1: Then you have to get it, and then you have

1379
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:42,800
Speaker 1: to go log in and bet, and like the chances

1380
01:04:42,840 --> 01:04:46,080
Speaker 1: that the odds are the same is very difficult and

1381
01:04:46,120 --> 01:04:48,560
Speaker 1: it can be tilting. So I completely agree with you,

1382
01:04:48,640 --> 01:04:52,919
Speaker 1: all right, first bet here Seattle first score and win

1383
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:53,959
Speaker 1: plus one twenty five.

1384
01:04:54,560 --> 01:04:57,640
Speaker 14: So this is the basic bet that I made. I

1385
01:04:57,680 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 14: came in here to this trying to win. Five hundred

1386
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 14: just kind of juice the line a little bit. I

1387
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:05,160
Speaker 14: doubt that just five hundred will get me over the

1388
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:07,440
Speaker 14: line for the win, but I'm hoping that this kind

1389
01:05:07,440 --> 01:05:10,400
Speaker 14: of adds on later. So a lot of the guys

1390
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:13,080
Speaker 14: I've talked on this already, your bet really helps to

1391
01:05:13,120 --> 01:05:15,120
Speaker 14: line up with this. You have the zero zero first

1392
01:05:15,200 --> 01:05:17,880
Speaker 14: quarter bet, hoping we don't get zero zero first quarter.

1393
01:05:17,920 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 14: I'm hoping more like three zero first quarter, seven zero

1394
01:05:20,760 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 14: first quarter. I agree with you on a lot of

1395
01:05:23,360 --> 01:05:27,080
Speaker 14: the stuff about Patriots not coming out quickly McDaniel's offense

1396
01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:29,240
Speaker 14: early on. I had the same stat I was in

1397
01:05:29,280 --> 01:05:31,200
Speaker 14: the chat with three. I already have that in an

1398
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:33,959
Speaker 14: article for no points in the first quarter. The other

1399
01:05:34,040 --> 01:05:35,680
Speaker 14: side of the ball, though, is when I'm focusing on

1400
01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:38,480
Speaker 14: So if I like Seattle in the game, I have

1401
01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 14: to like them on the front foot. I have to

1402
01:05:40,680 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 14: want Sam Darnold playing with the lead, playing the right

1403
01:05:44,880 --> 01:05:48,360
Speaker 14: way early number one passing offense on first down twenty

1404
01:05:48,440 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 14: fifth on third down, Patriots defense is kind of the

1405
01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:53,440
Speaker 14: opposite of that. They're pretty stout late downs, but not

1406
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:56,960
Speaker 14: so good early downs and then first quarter. Patriots defense

1407
01:05:57,000 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 14: thirtieth DVWA in the regular season, and that really has

1408
01:06:00,400 --> 01:06:03,400
Speaker 14: reflected in the playoffs. If you look at the opening drives,

1409
01:06:03,720 --> 01:06:05,640
Speaker 14: Chargers got to like the two and the five two

1410
01:06:05,680 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 14: of their first three drives. They didn't do anything good

1411
01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:09,959
Speaker 14: with it, but they got there. They got a field

1412
01:06:10,000 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 14: goals the only points of the game. Texans they got

1413
01:06:12,520 --> 01:06:14,680
Speaker 14: down to the one sell for a field goal, get

1414
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:17,320
Speaker 14: a touchdown the next drive early in the game, and

1415
01:06:17,360 --> 01:06:20,160
Speaker 14: then the Broncos. Look they kind of removing the ball

1416
01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:23,240
Speaker 14: in that game with Stidham before everything went crazy on

1417
01:06:23,280 --> 01:06:25,760
Speaker 14: the turnover and downs and then the weather late. So

1418
01:06:26,200 --> 01:06:29,240
Speaker 14: I think New England's defense has been pretty vulnerable early.

1419
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:33,479
Speaker 14: And the Seahawks offense if you look at these last

1420
01:06:33,480 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 14: three games against the Rams, first two drives seven points

1421
01:06:36,880 --> 01:06:40,400
Speaker 14: and three points, Niners three points and seven not counting

1422
01:06:40,640 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 14: the touchdown on the kickoff, and then other Niners game

1423
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:46,680
Speaker 14: the finale in the regular season touchdown and then a

1424
01:06:46,720 --> 01:06:49,600
Speaker 14: turnover and downs after sixty six yards. So to me,

1425
01:06:50,320 --> 01:06:53,520
Speaker 14: this is if I like Seattle, I like Clint Kubiak.

1426
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:54,400
Speaker 6: I like the script.

1427
01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:57,360
Speaker 14: I want Sam Darnold on script. I want some points early.

1428
01:06:57,760 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 14: Seattle's eleven to zero when they score first. This season,

1429
01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:03,000
Speaker 14: they're the only unbeaten team in the NFL. They've scored

1430
01:07:03,000 --> 01:07:06,640
Speaker 14: first five straight. This for me is how could I

1431
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:08,560
Speaker 14: take Seattle and not have to lay the four and

1432
01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:11,200
Speaker 14: a half, not have to lay the money line price.

1433
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:14,280
Speaker 14: I'm juicing it with the score first, getting the plus

1434
01:07:14,280 --> 01:07:16,880
Speaker 14: one twenty five. It's four hundred dollars in one thousand.

1435
01:07:17,480 --> 01:07:17,720
Speaker 2: All right.

1436
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:21,080
Speaker 1: The next you're going JSN MVP, but not just MVP,

1437
01:07:21,120 --> 01:07:23,280
Speaker 1: you can I have one hundred plus seeding yards, So

1438
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:26,080
Speaker 1: you're taking that from around five fifty to eight fifty.

1439
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:29,560
Speaker 14: Yeah, I'm annoyed so many others are taking JSN. I

1440
01:07:29,560 --> 01:07:31,440
Speaker 14: feel like I'm kind of losing the edge. So hopefully

1441
01:07:31,760 --> 01:07:33,960
Speaker 14: the one hundred yard boost gets me a little bit

1442
01:07:34,000 --> 01:07:36,840
Speaker 14: of juice back. It's two hundred dollars on this one. Yeah,

1443
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:38,360
Speaker 14: I think a lot of folks have already kind of

1444
01:07:38,400 --> 01:07:39,320
Speaker 14: made the case pretty well.

1445
01:07:39,360 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 15: Here.

1446
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:42,760
Speaker 14: One thing you love about JSN. He was responsible for

1447
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:45,360
Speaker 14: forty four percent of Donald's yards this year and forty

1448
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:48,040
Speaker 14: percent of his passing touchdown so if you think, okay,

1449
01:07:48,080 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 14: what's a normal ish Donald line in a win, maybe

1450
01:07:51,920 --> 01:07:54,120
Speaker 14: like two hundred and seventy five yards and two scores?

1451
01:07:54,320 --> 01:07:56,440
Speaker 14: All right, Well, JSM is gonna be at like one

1452
01:07:56,560 --> 01:07:59,320
Speaker 14: hundred and thirty eight catches and a score out of that?

1453
01:07:59,640 --> 01:08:02,160
Speaker 14: Which one of those looks more impressive to an MVP voter,

1454
01:08:02,280 --> 01:08:05,240
Speaker 14: especially Likedbundo said, what if you get one big mistake

1455
01:08:05,280 --> 01:08:07,440
Speaker 14: from Darnald in there? Jaysm is not going to have

1456
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 14: that sort of mistake. Patriots dead last DVU against swat

1457
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:14,120
Speaker 14: receiver one. I wanted the JSN escalator. I've bet him

1458
01:08:14,120 --> 01:08:16,960
Speaker 14: for seven catches, eight catches. If you get past that

1459
01:08:17,160 --> 01:08:19,639
Speaker 14: nine ten catches or over one hundred and twenty yards,

1460
01:08:20,160 --> 01:08:22,439
Speaker 14: forget that you're at like two to one, three to one,

1461
01:08:22,560 --> 01:08:23,639
Speaker 14: just go straight to MVP.

1462
01:08:23,800 --> 01:08:25,320
Speaker 6: That line is going to put you in the mix.

1463
01:08:25,720 --> 01:08:28,519
Speaker 14: And I think with the bet available to add one

1464
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:32,080
Speaker 14: hundred yards in, there are very few scenarios where Jasn

1465
01:08:32,200 --> 01:08:34,320
Speaker 14: goes under one hundred yards, like hits his under on

1466
01:08:34,360 --> 01:08:37,240
Speaker 14: the receiving line and still is an MVP. We're gonna

1467
01:08:37,240 --> 01:08:39,360
Speaker 14: think of that as a down game for him, as

1468
01:08:39,360 --> 01:08:41,960
Speaker 14: good as he's been. If you look back We've had

1469
01:08:42,040 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 14: three receivers since the eighties lead the league in receiving

1470
01:08:45,280 --> 01:08:48,320
Speaker 14: yards and then make the Super Bowl. They've in their

1471
01:08:48,360 --> 01:08:51,320
Speaker 14: three Super Bowl games put up something like ten catches

1472
01:08:51,320 --> 01:08:53,400
Speaker 14: one hundred and forty yards a game and eight touchdowns

1473
01:08:53,400 --> 01:08:53,840
Speaker 14: between them.

1474
01:08:53,880 --> 01:08:56,040
Speaker 6: Admittedly two of them were Jerry Rice.

1475
01:08:56,080 --> 01:08:57,960
Speaker 14: So we're juice to the numbers a little bit here,

1476
01:08:58,320 --> 01:09:01,559
Speaker 14: But I just think it's a JSM spot and I'm

1477
01:09:01,600 --> 01:09:04,479
Speaker 14: hoping my juice plus eight fifty here gets me a

1478
01:09:04,479 --> 01:09:06,400
Speaker 14: little bit ahead of some of the other js npecks.

1479
01:09:07,160 --> 01:09:09,959
Speaker 1: All right, then you have your next two are similar,

1480
01:09:10,160 --> 01:09:12,960
Speaker 1: but for each team you have Seattle defensive or special

1481
01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:16,720
Speaker 1: team score plus money line plus eight thirty three, and

1482
01:09:16,760 --> 01:09:20,320
Speaker 1: then Pat's defensive or special team score plus money line

1483
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:24,760
Speaker 1: plus twenty seven oh three. I do think this is

1484
01:09:24,800 --> 01:09:28,280
Speaker 1: a game where there's a higher than normal chance that

1485
01:09:28,520 --> 01:09:32,200
Speaker 1: you can see a defensive score by either team. And

1486
01:09:32,479 --> 01:09:34,200
Speaker 1: by the way, just to cap off your MVP with

1487
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:36,880
Speaker 1: the Donald and the numbers, and like Donald, isn't the

1488
01:09:36,920 --> 01:09:39,800
Speaker 1: household name right that like your dount Radium home, So

1489
01:09:39,840 --> 01:09:41,519
Speaker 1: like that I think contributes to you don't remember, this

1490
01:09:41,600 --> 01:09:44,839
Speaker 1: is like a people voting award, But Seattle defensive specially

1491
01:09:44,880 --> 01:09:46,840
Speaker 1: score and money line, and then Pat's defensive special team

1492
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:49,080
Speaker 1: score and moneyline. Thoughts there, yeah.

1493
01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:50,479
Speaker 6: Here, and bring me back on the show next year.

1494
01:09:50,479 --> 01:09:52,679
Speaker 14: I'm gonna make this exact same bet with the Whatever

1495
01:09:52,720 --> 01:09:54,800
Speaker 14: the two teams are, there won't be the Vikings. Y'all

1496
01:09:54,800 --> 01:09:56,639
Speaker 14: are sad about your team not being the super Bowl.

1497
01:09:56,680 --> 01:09:58,880
Speaker 14: It'll be nice if the Vikings ever made a Super Bowl,

1498
01:09:58,960 --> 01:10:02,280
Speaker 14: so I at least enjoy the you get. Defensive teams

1499
01:10:02,320 --> 01:10:04,960
Speaker 14: have had twenty three touchdowns in the Super Bowls, more

1500
01:10:05,000 --> 01:10:08,719
Speaker 14: than one in every three Super Bowls. Both Chiefs Eagles

1501
01:10:08,920 --> 01:10:12,519
Speaker 14: games had a touchdown by the defense fourteen defensive scores

1502
01:10:12,520 --> 01:10:14,640
Speaker 14: in the last twenty four. It's over a half the

1503
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:18,160
Speaker 14: defensive touchdown expected per game in that stretch. Like you said,

1504
01:10:18,479 --> 01:10:22,400
Speaker 14: Seattle aggressive defense bought second most giveaways on offense. So

1505
01:10:22,760 --> 01:10:25,320
Speaker 14: I'm obviously we're gonna get to my max payout when

1506
01:10:25,320 --> 01:10:27,400
Speaker 14: you get there. I can't win both of these, right,

1507
01:10:27,520 --> 01:10:29,680
Speaker 14: like I can only win one or the other. I

1508
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:32,160
Speaker 14: don't mind. I haven't heard a lot of Petriot's action

1509
01:10:32,280 --> 01:10:35,280
Speaker 14: on here. If New England wins, and it's football, it's

1510
01:10:35,280 --> 01:10:38,320
Speaker 14: a weird oblong ball. Why wouldn't they win because we

1511
01:10:38,400 --> 01:10:41,559
Speaker 14: got the Darnold turnovers, some unlucky bounds, some goofy play

1512
01:10:41,720 --> 01:10:44,920
Speaker 14: defense back the other way. Seven or three points is

1513
01:10:44,920 --> 01:10:47,320
Speaker 14: a pretty good reason to win a game that you

1514
01:10:47,400 --> 01:10:49,880
Speaker 14: were not expected to And that's why I have the

1515
01:10:49,880 --> 01:10:53,479
Speaker 14: combo here. Twenty three defensive touchdowns the Super Bowl. Twenty

1516
01:10:53,560 --> 01:10:56,679
Speaker 14: of them came from the winning team. So you want

1517
01:10:56,680 --> 01:11:00,280
Speaker 14: to bet the winning team to get the defensive touchdown. Sure,

1518
01:11:00,280 --> 01:11:02,840
Speaker 14: you get special teams at your book as well. I'm

1519
01:11:02,840 --> 01:11:05,360
Speaker 14: playing both of them in this contest. Since I like

1520
01:11:05,439 --> 01:11:08,479
Speaker 14: Seattle more, I'll go two hundred on Seattle one hundred

1521
01:11:08,520 --> 01:11:11,519
Speaker 14: on New England. My goal with the bets here is

1522
01:11:11,560 --> 01:11:14,120
Speaker 14: I basically had the one kind of safer bet and

1523
01:11:14,200 --> 01:11:16,799
Speaker 14: then four other ones to put me at like fifteen

1524
01:11:16,880 --> 01:11:20,120
Speaker 14: hundred three thousand ish range. If I get any one

1525
01:11:20,160 --> 01:11:22,400
Speaker 14: of the other four, I'll feel pretty good about my chances,

1526
01:11:22,880 --> 01:11:25,400
Speaker 14: and hopefully the five hundred from the first bet just

1527
01:11:25,439 --> 01:11:25,880
Speaker 14: adds on.

1528
01:11:26,439 --> 01:11:29,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, if the Pats score defense, especially sus On end,

1529
01:11:30,320 --> 01:11:33,360
Speaker 1: win the game, I think you have a really good

1530
01:11:33,400 --> 01:11:35,800
Speaker 1: chance of winning the contest. As long as it's not

1531
01:11:35,920 --> 01:11:38,920
Speaker 1: zero zero at the end of the first quarter, and

1532
01:11:38,960 --> 01:11:46,040
Speaker 1: as long as Billy doesn't hit one of his squares squares,

1533
01:11:47,760 --> 01:11:53,320
Speaker 1: and yeah, I think you would. Kerner would be close

1534
01:11:53,600 --> 01:11:58,880
Speaker 1: if he hits his parlay Nick and then but there

1535
01:11:58,880 --> 01:12:00,920
Speaker 1: can't be a defense at ENVY eight, so you can't

1536
01:12:00,920 --> 01:12:03,160
Speaker 1: have a defensive Oh who about that one? If and

1537
01:12:03,240 --> 01:12:05,479
Speaker 1: As would win thirty two to fifty on a defensive

1538
01:12:05,520 --> 01:12:08,200
Speaker 1: MVP thirty, so.

1539
01:12:08,160 --> 01:12:09,400
Speaker 6: You gotta have an article.

1540
01:12:09,479 --> 01:12:12,040
Speaker 14: I'm betting that out of fifteen to one defensive MVPN

1541
01:12:12,080 --> 01:12:14,600
Speaker 14: my raticle, I just only difference as five bets, So

1542
01:12:14,600 --> 01:12:16,000
Speaker 14: I only gave you five that this.

1543
01:12:16,080 --> 01:12:18,559
Speaker 1: Was the way to deal with I I like that

1544
01:12:18,640 --> 01:12:21,840
Speaker 1: as well, So we RA and I talked about that,

1545
01:12:21,840 --> 01:12:25,240
Speaker 1: and then your final bet. This is a really intriguing one, Rashichi,

1546
01:12:25,320 --> 01:12:28,840
Speaker 1: he longest rushed thirty to one. You could also win

1547
01:12:29,040 --> 01:12:31,920
Speaker 1: the contest if this happens, and then you know, Jason

1548
01:12:31,960 --> 01:12:35,120
Speaker 1: doesn't or like Seattle doesn't win, the Bats win and

1549
01:12:35,120 --> 01:12:37,840
Speaker 1: then this happens. So this is a game where I

1550
01:12:37,880 --> 01:12:39,800
Speaker 1: was looking into this market because I was like, yeah,

1551
01:12:39,800 --> 01:12:41,559
Speaker 1: I don't think either team's gonna have much success on

1552
01:12:41,600 --> 01:12:46,040
Speaker 1: the ground, so like the actual longest rush number could

1553
01:12:46,040 --> 01:12:48,479
Speaker 1: be very low. And then I think both teams because

1554
01:12:48,520 --> 01:12:51,600
Speaker 1: they know they're not going to have sustained success with

1555
01:12:51,640 --> 01:12:54,439
Speaker 1: their you know, basic rushing attack. They're gonna have to get creative.

1556
01:12:54,479 --> 01:12:55,960
Speaker 1: And one of the ways they get creative is get

1557
01:12:55,960 --> 01:12:58,400
Speaker 1: the ball and she heats hands in different ways.

1558
01:12:58,920 --> 01:13:01,280
Speaker 14: Yeah, he's got a rush attempt an eight of eleven

1559
01:13:01,320 --> 01:13:03,400
Speaker 14: games since the Seahawks traded for him. I think they're

1560
01:13:03,479 --> 01:13:06,080
Speaker 14: using him kind of like Percy Harvin to me betting

1561
01:13:06,160 --> 01:13:08,200
Speaker 14: rashichhi heat. I think it's the most fun bet you

1562
01:13:08,200 --> 01:13:10,479
Speaker 14: can make for the Super Bowl. Like this is you're

1563
01:13:10,479 --> 01:13:13,400
Speaker 14: getting one shot at a Shaheeda run in all likelihood

1564
01:13:13,439 --> 01:13:15,400
Speaker 14: unless you get like a backward pass or something.

1565
01:13:16,000 --> 01:13:17,200
Speaker 6: He's got green shoes.

1566
01:13:17,320 --> 01:13:20,080
Speaker 14: I bet this NFC Championship game and you're just watching

1567
01:13:20,120 --> 01:13:22,519
Speaker 14: the green shoes on every play, watch the green shoes,

1568
01:13:22,760 --> 01:13:25,360
Speaker 14: wait for your one run. He finally got it, and

1569
01:13:25,400 --> 01:13:27,600
Speaker 14: it was right after a kickoff that he returned. I

1570
01:13:27,640 --> 01:13:29,479
Speaker 14: was like, what are you doing? He just ran all

1571
01:13:29,479 --> 01:13:31,439
Speaker 14: over the field on a return. Don't have him run

1572
01:13:31,479 --> 01:13:34,240
Speaker 14: the ball the very next play. I needed over half

1573
01:13:34,280 --> 01:13:37,439
Speaker 14: a yard. He like runs over has a yard but

1574
01:13:37,479 --> 01:13:39,000
Speaker 14: didn't want to take the hit and steps out for

1575
01:13:39,040 --> 01:13:41,320
Speaker 14: a gain of zero. So I got hooked on this one.

1576
01:13:41,400 --> 01:13:43,200
Speaker 14: I did not have fun. I think it will be

1577
01:13:43,240 --> 01:13:45,639
Speaker 14: fun in the Super Bowl waiting for your one shot

1578
01:13:45,880 --> 01:13:48,000
Speaker 14: to come around the end and hopefully bust along. When

1579
01:13:48,000 --> 01:13:50,240
Speaker 14: we know how fast he is, you're hopefully getting like

1580
01:13:50,479 --> 01:13:53,000
Speaker 14: a punt return on a run. Do you know that

1581
01:13:53,040 --> 01:13:56,919
Speaker 14: the Patriots actually allowed the most rushing yards to opposing

1582
01:13:56,960 --> 01:13:59,479
Speaker 14: receivers this year. I don't make a ton of that,

1583
01:13:59,840 --> 01:14:01,640
Speaker 14: but if they did, a lot of the six most attempts,

1584
01:14:01,800 --> 01:14:05,559
Speaker 14: seven double digit runs by opposing receivers, one of those

1585
01:14:05,600 --> 01:14:07,400
Speaker 14: with a thirty one. Shaheed has a thirty and a

1586
01:14:07,439 --> 01:14:10,360
Speaker 14: thirty one with Seattle. And look, we always get the

1587
01:14:10,360 --> 01:14:12,640
Speaker 14: gadget play in the Super Bowl, right These coaches have

1588
01:14:12,640 --> 01:14:15,679
Speaker 14: been waiting for this one big moment to unveilable to play.

1589
01:14:16,120 --> 01:14:18,920
Speaker 14: And yeah, like what you said, I don't really love

1590
01:14:19,000 --> 01:14:22,480
Speaker 14: the rushing angles for either team of this game. Probably

1591
01:14:22,640 --> 01:14:25,200
Speaker 14: Chalk would be Kenneth Walker to get the longest rush.

1592
01:14:25,479 --> 01:14:29,000
Speaker 14: His longest rush is usually like fifteen to twenty. We

1593
01:14:29,120 --> 01:14:32,200
Speaker 14: might win this with like an eighteen twenty yard rush.

1594
01:14:32,400 --> 01:14:34,040
Speaker 14: I think Shaheed could get that get.

1595
01:14:33,840 --> 01:14:34,400
Speaker 6: A long one.

1596
01:14:34,720 --> 01:14:37,599
Speaker 14: Did you know that Seattle is leading a rusher in

1597
01:14:37,640 --> 01:14:41,120
Speaker 14: their last Super Bowl win Percy Harvin with forty five

1598
01:14:41,200 --> 01:14:43,640
Speaker 14: yards including a thirty yard run in that game. So

1599
01:14:43,640 --> 01:14:45,360
Speaker 14: if we're going to run it back on Seattle, let's

1600
01:14:45,400 --> 01:14:48,160
Speaker 14: run it back with Shahid as Harvin. And Yeah, I

1601
01:14:48,240 --> 01:14:50,599
Speaker 14: think this one, this could hit in a win a loss,

1602
01:14:50,680 --> 01:14:53,320
Speaker 14: in a lot of scenarios. So at thirty to one,

1603
01:14:53,360 --> 01:14:56,800
Speaker 14: I think that's just way too long. Love the look, Hi, Brad.

1604
01:14:56,840 --> 01:14:59,519
Speaker 1: And if Seattle first score and win plus one twenty

1605
01:14:59,520 --> 01:15:02,400
Speaker 1: five JSN one hundred plus receiving yards and MVP plus

1606
01:15:02,400 --> 01:15:05,840
Speaker 1: eight fifty both teams two separate bets defense especially in

1607
01:15:05,840 --> 01:15:08,400
Speaker 1: score and moneyline Seattle plus eight thirty three PATS plus

1608
01:15:08,479 --> 01:15:10,200
Speaker 1: twenty seven or three and then she heat longest rush

1609
01:15:10,360 --> 01:15:12,960
Speaker 1: thirty to one, you're max piled around sixty eight hundred.

1610
01:15:13,040 --> 01:15:18,040
Speaker 1: If Seattle loses around fifty seven hundred. Good stuff, enjoy

1611
01:15:18,120 --> 01:15:20,400
Speaker 1: the game, good luck on your future, Thanks for joining me, brother.

1612
01:15:20,600 --> 01:15:21,080
Speaker 6: Thanks Doc.

1613
01:15:22,320 --> 01:15:25,360
Speaker 1: All right, and then finally we have none other than

1614
01:15:25,800 --> 01:15:30,599
Speaker 1: my partner Crime on the Action Over Podcast one Final Dance. Chris,

1615
01:15:31,600 --> 01:15:35,280
Speaker 1: I saved the best for last, And so anyone who

1616
01:15:35,360 --> 01:15:39,639
Speaker 1: came on this show, they are really really not gonna

1617
01:15:39,720 --> 01:15:42,720
Speaker 1: like your pick because you have one bet and it's

1618
01:15:42,760 --> 01:15:47,240
Speaker 1: going to eliminate a lot of people because if you hit,

1619
01:15:47,280 --> 01:15:51,800
Speaker 1: they have no chance. You're allocating Well, first of all,

1620
01:15:52,000 --> 01:15:53,160
Speaker 1: how's it going, what are you doing for the game?

1621
01:15:53,360 --> 01:15:55,040
Speaker 1: And have you bet a sad yet?

1622
01:15:55,760 --> 01:15:57,519
Speaker 7: I haven't been a saga yet. What's going on?

1623
01:15:57,560 --> 01:15:57,840
Speaker 6: Stuck?

1624
01:15:57,880 --> 01:16:01,880
Speaker 15: Love the concept of the show. I'm a true football fan, man,

1625
01:16:01,920 --> 01:16:04,680
Speaker 15: I gotta watch game. I gotta watch these games alone sometimes,

1626
01:16:04,800 --> 01:16:07,200
Speaker 15: you know, I got I got friends in the you know,

1627
01:16:07,280 --> 01:16:09,280
Speaker 15: right around here, so you know, sometimes one or two

1628
01:16:09,360 --> 01:16:12,000
Speaker 15: people might come through watch it with me. But yeah,

1629
01:16:12,040 --> 01:16:13,920
Speaker 15: I need to watch games a boy myself. Man, Like

1630
01:16:14,000 --> 01:16:16,479
Speaker 15: that's just it doesn't matter. Like I'm I always have

1631
01:16:16,520 --> 01:16:18,920
Speaker 15: a lot on it, like riding on it. So it's

1632
01:16:18,920 --> 01:16:21,200
Speaker 15: like not even about I mean, the Giants have it.

1633
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:23,679
Speaker 15: I've actually watched the Giant Super Bowls with the most

1634
01:16:23,680 --> 01:16:26,920
Speaker 15: people because I'm from New York and you know, we

1635
01:16:27,000 --> 01:16:30,080
Speaker 15: all got together. But yeah, no, I'm watching it alone

1636
01:16:30,120 --> 01:16:32,120
Speaker 15: and I haven't been aside yet. But I like to

1637
01:16:32,120 --> 01:16:34,320
Speaker 15: see hawks. Don't know about the four and a half though,

1638
01:16:34,320 --> 01:16:35,080
Speaker 15: because I have a lot.

1639
01:16:34,920 --> 01:16:37,760
Speaker 7: Of respect for Vrabel, A lot of respect, all right.

1640
01:16:37,640 --> 01:16:42,360
Speaker 1: And then you're allocating your bet all thousand to one Bet.

1641
01:16:42,479 --> 01:16:45,439
Speaker 1: We talked about this in the podcast, who What are

1642
01:16:45,479 --> 01:16:45,920
Speaker 1: you going with?

1643
01:16:47,080 --> 01:16:51,280
Speaker 15: All a thousand JSN MVP? So I'll give you the

1644
01:16:51,280 --> 01:16:53,040
Speaker 15: They all give you the reason for jas NMVP. I

1645
01:16:53,040 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 15: don't need to do that, give you the game theory.

1646
01:16:56,800 --> 01:16:59,960
Speaker 15: I figured that, being how smart everybody's going to be,

1647
01:17:00,640 --> 01:17:04,280
Speaker 15: that they were going to try to come up with

1648
01:17:04,520 --> 01:17:08,320
Speaker 15: these combinations. So my thing was I wanted to go one, bet.

1649
01:17:08,360 --> 01:17:10,479
Speaker 15: I thought that was the sharpest way to go, and

1650
01:17:10,680 --> 01:17:14,760
Speaker 15: you matched it, so you knew it was up. And

1651
01:17:14,800 --> 01:17:20,240
Speaker 15: then my other thing was I didn't want to add

1652
01:17:20,280 --> 01:17:23,200
Speaker 15: a bunch of because everyone's going with I thought they

1653
01:17:23,200 --> 01:17:25,519
Speaker 15: were gonna go more bets. I needed something with the

1654
01:17:25,600 --> 01:17:30,280
Speaker 15: least amount of multiple events to happen and the most

1655
01:17:30,280 --> 01:17:34,280
Speaker 15: outs And I think this JSN plus five, you know,

1656
01:17:34,280 --> 01:17:39,800
Speaker 15: plus five fifty all thousand solves all those because number one,

1657
01:17:40,120 --> 01:17:42,519
Speaker 15: the most likely outcome is Seattle winning the most likely.

1658
01:17:43,040 --> 01:17:46,000
Speaker 15: If Jason hits his medians and Donald hits his meetings,

1659
01:17:46,120 --> 01:17:50,479
Speaker 15: Jason more likely, and then everything else is kind of you.

1660
01:17:50,840 --> 01:17:54,960
Speaker 15: I'm forcing everyone to hit multiple bets except you, who

1661
01:17:55,040 --> 01:17:58,120
Speaker 15: I think probably scares I think you know easily scare

1662
01:17:58,160 --> 01:18:02,360
Speaker 15: me the most because that zero's are a first quarter, like,

1663
01:18:02,400 --> 01:18:03,439
Speaker 15: you know, you could.

1664
01:18:03,320 --> 01:18:05,800
Speaker 1: Have to help MVP because it's not like a thirty

1665
01:18:05,840 --> 01:18:07,840
Speaker 1: five thirty one game, you.

1666
01:18:07,800 --> 01:18:10,519
Speaker 15: Know, yeah exactly, but you'd have you got a plus

1667
01:18:10,680 --> 01:18:14,400
Speaker 15: M fifty. So I think the like Evan, I thought

1668
01:18:14,400 --> 01:18:16,840
Speaker 15: if he he was smart with the you know, going

1669
01:18:17,320 --> 01:18:19,839
Speaker 15: with what was it js N MVP and he added

1670
01:18:19,880 --> 01:18:23,640
Speaker 15: something else to right, Yeah, so that was smart in

1671
01:18:23,680 --> 01:18:25,280
Speaker 15: the sense, but I thought he should have put more

1672
01:18:25,320 --> 01:18:28,479
Speaker 15: on it, like if he had put a bigger amount,

1673
01:18:28,479 --> 01:18:30,120
Speaker 15: I would have been a little more scared of that.

1674
01:18:30,160 --> 01:18:32,000
Speaker 15: And then I think Brandon had a similar kind of

1675
01:18:32,040 --> 01:18:34,120
Speaker 15: idea with you know, some of the stuff he did.

1676
01:18:34,120 --> 01:18:35,880
Speaker 15: But given that no one else put a thousand all

1677
01:18:35,960 --> 01:18:37,720
Speaker 15: thousand on one bet, which I thought was gonna be

1678
01:18:37,760 --> 01:18:41,639
Speaker 15: key in his contest, I do feel pretty good. It's

1679
01:18:41,680 --> 01:18:44,000
Speaker 15: just and I guess for for your bet, which I

1680
01:18:44,000 --> 01:18:46,920
Speaker 15: think is really sharp. The only the angle I'm looking

1681
01:18:46,960 --> 01:18:50,960
Speaker 15: for is Okay, hopefully drag like Drake may ain't Brady,

1682
01:18:51,000 --> 01:18:53,840
Speaker 15: because I know Brady's just so patient, right, like he's

1683
01:18:53,840 --> 01:18:55,720
Speaker 15: gonna just take all those underneath, and he also just

1684
01:18:55,760 --> 01:18:57,679
Speaker 15: comes out so bad a lot of the time because

1685
01:18:57,720 --> 01:19:00,160
Speaker 15: he's trying to just not do too much. But you know,

1686
01:19:00,240 --> 01:19:02,360
Speaker 15: Drake may is kind of he's gonna gun swing it

1687
01:19:02,400 --> 01:19:05,200
Speaker 15: all over, so I could see, you know, maybe maybe

1688
01:19:05,200 --> 01:19:06,920
Speaker 15: that's the way I can. I can I can get

1689
01:19:07,360 --> 01:19:09,080
Speaker 15: ahead of you on that one with the score in

1690
01:19:09,080 --> 01:19:11,720
Speaker 15: the first quarter. But I thought, I thought yours was

1691
01:19:11,720 --> 01:19:14,360
Speaker 15: really sharp because but I've really wanted to go above

1692
01:19:14,400 --> 01:19:17,920
Speaker 15: five to one because I knew people this minute people start,

1693
01:19:18,040 --> 01:19:20,639
Speaker 15: you know, splitting it up among more than one. Bet

1694
01:19:21,240 --> 01:19:23,400
Speaker 15: it kind of creates some variance there, and the books

1695
01:19:23,400 --> 01:19:25,400
Speaker 15: already have these things priced out, so that actually works

1696
01:19:25,400 --> 01:19:28,120
Speaker 15: in my favor because good luck trying to find multiple

1697
01:19:28,160 --> 01:19:29,840
Speaker 15: You're gonna you're gonna be more likely to hit one,

1698
01:19:30,080 --> 01:19:34,040
Speaker 15: but less likely to hit enough. So that that was

1699
01:19:34,080 --> 01:19:36,800
Speaker 15: my kind of thought process behind just going on one

1700
01:19:36,800 --> 01:19:37,760
Speaker 15: thousand love it.

1701
01:19:37,960 --> 01:19:41,160
Speaker 1: There's a lot of jazz and love out there on

1702
01:19:41,240 --> 01:19:43,880
Speaker 1: this show and then just in general and rightfully so.

1703
01:19:44,920 --> 01:19:47,960
Speaker 1: But my so my only pushback would be and this

1704
01:19:48,040 --> 01:19:52,120
Speaker 1: is the most fascinating at the most fascinating angle of

1705
01:19:52,120 --> 01:19:54,960
Speaker 1: this game for me is the Patriots obviously know that,

1706
01:19:55,080 --> 01:19:57,479
Speaker 1: and if you were, if I was the Patriots, I

1707
01:19:57,520 --> 01:20:01,160
Speaker 1: would treat this like Belichick did, how he used to

1708
01:20:01,200 --> 01:20:04,760
Speaker 1: approach like Tyreek Hill and dominant number one receivers and say,

1709
01:20:04,840 --> 01:20:07,080
Speaker 1: no matter what, I'm taking them away and I would

1710
01:20:07,120 --> 01:20:11,400
Speaker 1: put you know, I would have my second quarter, I

1711
01:20:11,400 --> 01:20:14,439
Speaker 1: would have my second corner and a safety over top

1712
01:20:15,000 --> 01:20:16,840
Speaker 1: and basically try to bracket. You can't do it all

1713
01:20:16,840 --> 01:20:18,439
Speaker 1: the time. And I'm also curious to see what do

1714
01:20:18,520 --> 01:20:20,639
Speaker 1: the Seahawks do with JSN. They know that too, right

1715
01:20:20,680 --> 01:20:22,439
Speaker 1: the back and forth? Do they put how much they

1716
01:20:22,439 --> 01:20:24,000
Speaker 1: put them in the slot do they have? How much

1717
01:20:24,040 --> 01:20:25,760
Speaker 1: are they motioning them? How much are they you know,

1718
01:20:25,840 --> 01:20:27,680
Speaker 1: did they take them out of the backfield? Sometimes they're

1719
01:20:27,680 --> 01:20:29,680
Speaker 1: gonna move him all around, get them the ball in

1720
01:20:29,680 --> 01:20:33,840
Speaker 1: many different ways, but how much of the like I

1721
01:20:33,880 --> 01:20:36,320
Speaker 1: think the sole focus of the not the sole focus,

1722
01:20:36,320 --> 01:20:38,240
Speaker 1: but the primary focus of the Patriots defensive game plan

1723
01:20:38,240 --> 01:20:40,200
Speaker 1: should be, we can't let this guy beat us. If

1724
01:20:40,200 --> 01:20:42,519
Speaker 1: you want to throw to Shaheed and Cup and Barner

1725
01:20:42,520 --> 01:20:45,240
Speaker 1: all day, we trust our run defense and go ahead.

1726
01:20:46,439 --> 01:20:48,320
Speaker 1: Do you think that there's just nothing they can do

1727
01:20:48,360 --> 01:20:51,920
Speaker 1: to completely shut them down, not for four.

1728
01:20:51,800 --> 01:20:55,120
Speaker 15: Quarters and not in a game that projects this low scoring.

1729
01:20:55,280 --> 01:20:57,799
Speaker 15: So I could, And that's why I like the JSN

1730
01:20:57,880 --> 01:21:00,559
Speaker 15: MVP angles because let's say it's just an ugly game.

1731
01:21:00,640 --> 01:21:02,439
Speaker 15: Like a lot of people think it could be like

1732
01:21:02,680 --> 01:21:05,599
Speaker 15: this would be live in this context, especially if let's

1733
01:21:05,640 --> 01:21:08,439
Speaker 15: say there is like a field goal in the first quarter,

1734
01:21:08,760 --> 01:21:10,360
Speaker 15: like regardless.

1735
01:21:09,840 --> 01:21:11,519
Speaker 6: Just this could be live.

1736
01:21:11,560 --> 01:21:13,600
Speaker 15: Like JSM could be sitting on like zero receiving our

1737
01:21:13,680 --> 01:21:16,479
Speaker 15: gender in this fourth quarter, and if it's a home

1738
01:21:16,520 --> 01:21:19,719
Speaker 15: scoring game, he gets he gets a couple of drives

1739
01:21:19,720 --> 01:21:21,439
Speaker 15: where he gets you know, the big plays on each

1740
01:21:21,439 --> 01:21:22,160
Speaker 15: and a touchdown.

1741
01:21:22,439 --> 01:21:25,679
Speaker 1: And he also has like really highlight real type catches

1742
01:21:25,720 --> 01:21:26,200
Speaker 1: that are.

1743
01:21:26,400 --> 01:21:27,400
Speaker 7: Best player on the field.

1744
01:21:27,560 --> 01:21:29,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, like those one handed grabs, you have those go

1745
01:21:29,720 --> 01:21:33,960
Speaker 1: along way you remember these are humans, it's like humans voting,

1746
01:21:34,920 --> 01:21:37,439
Speaker 1: and yeah, I think it's very it's gonna be very

1747
01:21:37,439 --> 01:21:39,040
Speaker 1: difficult for either one of these things to run in

1748
01:21:39,200 --> 01:21:42,960
Speaker 1: for scores. So I think for Seattle to score, they're

1749
01:21:42,960 --> 01:21:44,920
Speaker 1: gonna have to throw in the red zone. And the

1750
01:21:44,960 --> 01:21:49,160
Speaker 1: most likely target there is JSN being double coverage.

1751
01:21:49,160 --> 01:21:52,080
Speaker 15: By the way, just like there's that's the thing about

1752
01:21:52,120 --> 01:21:54,280
Speaker 15: him when you're taking the best player on the field,

1753
01:21:54,400 --> 01:21:58,760
Speaker 15: and I think it's JSN on when period. I mean,

1754
01:21:59,479 --> 01:22:01,360
Speaker 15: you put two eyes on you're not because you're not

1755
01:22:01,360 --> 01:22:05,200
Speaker 15: gonna play manners like you're you're gonna switch switch it

1756
01:22:05,240 --> 01:22:05,880
Speaker 15: up for man in zones.

1757
01:22:05,920 --> 01:22:07,360
Speaker 5: So sometimes gonna be cloud brackets.

1758
01:22:07,360 --> 01:22:09,839
Speaker 15: Sometimes it's gonna be a true man, you know, situation

1759
01:22:09,880 --> 01:22:11,120
Speaker 15: where their safety is looking at him.

1760
01:22:11,000 --> 01:22:11,920
Speaker 6: In the corner, runs with him.

1761
01:22:12,200 --> 01:22:14,439
Speaker 15: But either way you can and Seattle comes down in

1762
01:22:14,439 --> 01:22:17,280
Speaker 15: a lot of different formations, which helps, so you could

1763
01:22:17,280 --> 01:22:20,000
Speaker 15: condense it and you're gonna have fullbacks, You're gonna have

1764
01:22:20,120 --> 01:22:21,960
Speaker 15: you might have to two tight ends, you know, you

1765
01:22:22,040 --> 01:22:23,720
Speaker 15: have just so many different ways, and then you can

1766
01:22:23,720 --> 01:22:27,719
Speaker 15: spread them out too. It's he can beat double coverage.

1767
01:22:27,720 --> 01:22:29,720
Speaker 15: There's he's gonna because he's gonna get separation on one

1768
01:22:29,760 --> 01:22:32,400
Speaker 15: of the two guys anyway, So you can't.

1769
01:22:32,200 --> 01:22:34,040
Speaker 1: I mean you can't just you're not able to just

1770
01:22:34,080 --> 01:22:37,840
Speaker 1: double someone the entire game. But do they also follow them?

1771
01:22:37,880 --> 01:22:39,960
Speaker 1: That's another thing, like as much as you can just

1772
01:22:39,960 --> 01:22:42,280
Speaker 1: Gonzales has done that sometimes but not always. So I'm

1773
01:22:42,320 --> 01:22:44,120
Speaker 1: super fascinated to see how the Patriots play and then

1774
01:22:44,320 --> 01:22:48,280
Speaker 1: just how the Seahawks respond. I'm sure the Patriots definitely

1775
01:22:48,280 --> 01:22:51,000
Speaker 1: spent some time looking at the Vikings tape with Flores

1776
01:22:51,040 --> 01:22:53,320
Speaker 1: did that was jess N's worst game. They used a

1777
01:22:53,320 --> 01:22:55,680
Speaker 1: lot of those cloud bracket coverages. They were doubling him

1778
01:22:55,680 --> 01:22:57,479
Speaker 1: at safeties over top a lot, and I think he finished.

1779
01:22:57,800 --> 01:22:59,760
Speaker 1: You know, they didn't have to do much of that game.

1780
01:22:59,800 --> 01:23:02,320
Speaker 15: And yeah, I was about to say about the twenty

1781
01:23:02,320 --> 01:23:05,519
Speaker 15: six nothing Rosemer, Oh, I don't even want to talk

1782
01:23:05,560 --> 01:23:07,720
Speaker 15: about that one. Yeah, that's that was my one thing

1783
01:23:07,760 --> 01:23:11,479
Speaker 15: where it was like, all right, I'm looking at this

1784
01:23:11,560 --> 01:23:13,840
Speaker 15: and I'm trying to say, oh see, okay, like there's

1785
01:23:13,840 --> 01:23:17,439
Speaker 15: a lot of smart people. Are they going to try

1786
01:23:17,479 --> 01:23:19,599
Speaker 15: to go different angles? And I've heard some people say,

1787
01:23:19,600 --> 01:23:21,160
Speaker 15: you know, I think we're going to concentrate a JSN.

1788
01:23:21,200 --> 01:23:23,680
Speaker 15: But it's like that was the one game where they

1789
01:23:23,720 --> 01:23:27,799
Speaker 15: did where it worked, but it doesn't really apply necessarily

1790
01:23:27,880 --> 01:23:31,599
Speaker 15: to this game in the same sense. So especially because

1791
01:23:31,960 --> 01:23:34,840
Speaker 15: in this one, Seattle is not expected to run and

1792
01:23:34,840 --> 01:23:37,559
Speaker 15: we've seen JSON lineup in the backfield and Brady even

1793
01:23:37,600 --> 01:23:39,680
Speaker 15: talked about it. He's like, Yo, they line this dude

1794
01:23:39,760 --> 01:23:41,599
Speaker 15: up in the backfield and it's like an automatic target

1795
01:23:41,600 --> 01:23:44,439
Speaker 15: and defenses know that and they just can't do anything

1796
01:23:44,439 --> 01:23:44,800
Speaker 15: about it.

1797
01:23:44,840 --> 01:23:46,000
Speaker 7: So I'm out.

1798
01:23:46,080 --> 01:23:46,639
Speaker 1: It'd be interesting.

1799
01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:48,680
Speaker 15: I could see JSN getting multiple carriers, which would help

1800
01:23:48,680 --> 01:23:52,639
Speaker 15: one of your bets. So but yeah, I could there's

1801
01:23:52,680 --> 01:23:54,720
Speaker 15: just too many ways. So I think it came down

1802
01:23:54,760 --> 01:23:56,200
Speaker 15: to game theory. I think this is a great idea

1803
01:23:56,240 --> 01:23:58,840
Speaker 15: for a contest, so that that's my shot at winning it.

1804
01:23:59,040 --> 01:24:02,400
Speaker 15: And I think you're the most dangerous challenger that that

1805
01:24:02,439 --> 01:24:05,160
Speaker 15: at least I'm scared of in terms of my my

1806
01:24:05,240 --> 01:24:05,800
Speaker 15: angle hitting.

1807
01:24:06,600 --> 01:24:09,120
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff. Yeah, I thought that you You

1808
01:24:09,120 --> 01:24:10,880
Speaker 1: were one of the best as far as how you

1809
01:24:10,880 --> 01:24:13,160
Speaker 1: approach the game theorastic, which is a huge part of

1810
01:24:13,200 --> 01:24:18,200
Speaker 1: this contest with ten others and myself in it. Thanks

1811
01:24:18,280 --> 01:24:21,040
Speaker 1: for joining me, brother, Thanks for joining me all year

1812
01:24:21,040 --> 01:24:22,720
Speaker 1: in the Action Network podcast. If you haven't checked out

1813
01:24:22,720 --> 01:24:24,280
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl preview, we break down from like every

1814
01:24:24,280 --> 01:24:26,479
Speaker 1: angle ramble about every possible angle. Make sure you check

1815
01:24:26,560 --> 01:24:27,880
Speaker 1: that out. I'll have a right up too.

1816
01:24:27,920 --> 01:24:29,080
Speaker 15: I'll be writing up the game guy.

1817
01:24:29,000 --> 01:24:31,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I will as well. You mentioned the bet that

1818
01:24:31,439 --> 01:24:33,599
Speaker 1: I like over four and a half Seahawks to get

1819
01:24:33,600 --> 01:24:35,599
Speaker 1: a rush attempt over seven and a half total rush

1820
01:24:35,800 --> 01:24:37,360
Speaker 1: players that have rushed up in the game. I just

1821
01:24:37,360 --> 01:24:40,000
Speaker 1: think both teams got to get creative and get their

1822
01:24:40,080 --> 01:24:42,320
Speaker 1: receivers carries. They're not gonna be able to run it

1823
01:24:42,640 --> 01:24:45,640
Speaker 1: with their standard rush attack, and then I think you

1824
01:24:45,720 --> 01:24:48,280
Speaker 1: might get a barn Or sneak, which adds another one

1825
01:24:48,640 --> 01:24:51,120
Speaker 1: and you might have all you got.

1826
01:24:51,160 --> 01:24:53,760
Speaker 15: Also, before you get a vall you get, maybe you

1827
01:24:53,760 --> 01:24:54,479
Speaker 15: get Drew Locke.

1828
01:24:54,560 --> 01:24:58,320
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe there's an injury. I also think the Patriots

1829
01:24:58,400 --> 01:25:01,120
Speaker 1: might have. If I was them, I would take an

1830
01:25:01,120 --> 01:25:05,360
Speaker 1: hour and spend it on having a guide practice the

1831
01:25:05,400 --> 01:25:08,840
Speaker 1: touch push. Drake May is not a great sneaker, and

1832
01:25:09,520 --> 01:25:12,160
Speaker 1: that's like we saw that in the Denver game. I

1833
01:25:12,200 --> 01:25:13,519
Speaker 1: know they gave him the first time but didn't really

1834
01:25:13,520 --> 01:25:15,920
Speaker 1: get it. So you might have a Patriots unknown like

1835
01:25:15,960 --> 01:25:24,559
Speaker 1: touch push guy here. So uh yeah, all right, good stuff.

1836
01:25:25,080 --> 01:25:28,280
Speaker 1: Thanks Chris, make sure you check him out on x IS.

1837
01:25:28,360 --> 01:25:31,920
Speaker 1: Right up and action of our podcast. Thanks to Chris Duck,

1838
01:25:32,240 --> 01:25:40,160
Speaker 1: Matt Brandon, Evan Kerner, Billy Nick, Dbundo, Grant, our producers

1839
01:25:40,880 --> 01:25:43,080
Speaker 1: most boortantly. Thanks all be for tuning in. If you

1840
01:25:43,080 --> 01:25:46,360
Speaker 1: commented who you think is gonna win, uh well, our

1841
01:25:46,360 --> 01:25:49,160
Speaker 1: producers will grab it and if you're right, you'll win

1842
01:25:49,200 --> 01:25:52,960
Speaker 1: a prize for me as well. But thanks to everyone

1843
01:25:53,000 --> 01:25:54,519
Speaker 1: for joining me. Thought this was a lot of fun

1844
01:25:55,400 --> 01:25:58,839
Speaker 1: and good luck on the Super Bowl all of your wagers.

1845
01:25:58,920 --> 01:26:00,960
Speaker 1: Thanks for following us all along in the football season.

1846
01:26:01,240 --> 01:26:02,160
Speaker 1: We will catch you all later.

1847
01:26:02,240 --> 01:26:17,679
Speaker 2: Cheers.

1848
01:26:18,400 --> 01:26:21,880
Speaker 15: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1849
01:26:22,280 --> 01:26:25,120
Speaker 11: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1850
01:26:25,400 --> 01:26:28,040
Speaker 11: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1851
01:26:28,120 --> 01:26:28,879
Speaker 11: hundred Gambler