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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and

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Speaker 2: then Broun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

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Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

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Speaker 2: on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: It's like the Amazing race joke. Never know where you're

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Speaker 3: going to find us, how quickly we can get there.

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Speaker 4: It's the prize I'm still looking for.

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Speaker 3: We'll have to ask management about that one. But of

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Speaker 3: course there was a reason why we did this when

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Speaker 3: we were in New York yesterday where all of the

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Speaker 3: surrogates had gathered for the vice presidential debate, the first

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Speaker 3: and only one of its kind of this twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: four election cycle, and also very likely the last kind

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Speaker 3: of debate of any kind that we will see before

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Speaker 3: election day on November fifth, Because I would remind everyone

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Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg TV and radio there is no second

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Speaker 3: presidential debate scheduled, and it's not clear whether the performance

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Speaker 3: of the running mates last night would have changed many

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Speaker 3: minds of their presidential right counterparts on the ticket as

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Speaker 3: to whether or not they wanted to share stage again.

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Speaker 5: Now it's back in the field, certainly for Kamala Harris

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Speaker 5: to Georgia today, Joe Biden and the Carolina's surveying damage

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Speaker 5: getting briefed on the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. They don't

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Speaker 5: wait around too long after a night like that to

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Speaker 5: try to seize the news flow. By the way, producer

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Speaker 5: Matt says, the prize is representative Seth Moulton. We should

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Speaker 5: let everyone know the congressman from Massachusetts will be with

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Speaker 5: us in just a moment. First, our conversation with Laura Davison,

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Speaker 5: of course, Bloomberg Politics editor, who had a late night

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Speaker 5: as well. Laura, it's good to see you here at

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Speaker 5: the table now that we've had a little bit of

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Speaker 5: time to distill what we saw and heard. Jade Vance

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Speaker 5: is getting a lot of credit for his performance last night.

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Speaker 5: Does it matter who won? Though, when we're talking about

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Speaker 5: a vice presidential.

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Speaker 3: Debate, you know, I saw a chart.

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Speaker 6: It was a joke, but I'll note it was a

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Speaker 6: ven diagram of you know, people who watched the debate

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Speaker 6: and undecided voters, and it was two circles.

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Speaker 3: There was no overlap.

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Speaker 6: So this probably didn't do a lot to change hearts

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Speaker 6: and mind. It probably did help advance a little bit

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Speaker 6: on the fundraising front. He's been one of the key

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Speaker 6: people out fundraising for Trump, and the image of himself

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Speaker 6: he presented is a much more palatable version of trump

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Speaker 6: bonomics to voters, to Wall Street, to donors in particular,

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Speaker 6: So you know, he maybe you know, helped burnish his

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Speaker 6: image a little bit. But well, whether this makes a

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Speaker 6: difference on the you know, the ten thousand voters in

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Speaker 6: Pennsylvania that matter, probably not well.

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Speaker 3: And if we're assuming that there was a decent chunk

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Speaker 3: of the American electorate that did not watch all ninety

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Speaker 3: minutes of this last night, they may see though, what

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Speaker 3: was clipped in the aftermath, including the exchange between Tim

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Speaker 3: Walls and JD Vance over January sixth, and whether or

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Speaker 3: not Donald Trump lost the twenty twenty election, which jad

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Speaker 3: Vance would not say yes or no to. He said, Tim,

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Speaker 3: I'm focused on the future. Is that the moment of

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Speaker 3: this debate that is going to have the longest shelf life.

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Speaker 6: Certainly in the coverage this morning, that has been the

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Speaker 6: clip that has come out the most and notable that

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Speaker 6: it is in you know, just the final minutes of

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Speaker 6: a ninety minute debate. Walls, you know, seemed to struggle

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Speaker 6: a little bit in the first thirty minutes, in particular

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Speaker 6: until the conversation to abortion, which really is you know,

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Speaker 6: his and the Harris campaign's strongest issue. But you know,

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Speaker 6: when you don't have a lot of people watching the

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Speaker 6: full ninety minutes and you have people picking up thirty

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Speaker 6: seconds here and thirty seconds they're on social media, that

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Speaker 6: makes a difference.

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Speaker 5: That's fascinating to me though, when it makes a difference

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Speaker 5: in their overall impression of what happened last night. You know,

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Speaker 5: some of us old people stayed up, watched it live.

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Speaker 5: It was appointment viewing, and we have our ideas. The

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Speaker 5: internet brings a completely different It's like going back to

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Speaker 5: the radio versus TV thing and Nixon Kennedy. Now, I

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Speaker 5: guess the internet's the new TV. If that's the only

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Speaker 5: way you consume the debate, you might have walked away,

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Speaker 5: thought Tim Walls, one have a completely different impression of

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Speaker 5: people who saw it live.

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Speaker 3: And remember too that.

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Speaker 6: When people are watching online, they're seeing, you know, kind

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Speaker 6: of information that the algorithm is feeding toward them. Sure

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Speaker 6: it really, you know, is very much a dichotomy of

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Speaker 6: you know who is seeing what. But it probably does help,

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Speaker 6: you know, get people, you know, either more excited about

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Speaker 6: voting or you know, potentially fired up to donate or

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Speaker 6: get their friends out to vote.

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Speaker 3: It was interesting and Joe and I were discussing this

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Speaker 3: just a few minutes ago. The kind of subjects that

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Speaker 3: weren't broached by the moderators that the candidates either candidates

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Speaker 3: had to bring up organically or just didn't have a

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Speaker 3: chance to address it all. Ukraine was one of them.

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Speaker 3: There also was the conversation around Hurricane Helene, in which

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Speaker 3: the Southeast is still recovering from. May take quite a while,

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Speaker 3: only asked about through the lens of climate change, with

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Speaker 3: the lack of clear answers perhaps on the part of JD.

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Speaker 3: Vans and possibly Tim Walls as well on that front.

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Speaker 3: But Hurricane Helen is what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris

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Speaker 3: are focusing on today, after fielding a lot of criticism

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Speaker 3: from the Trump campaign for not going to those affected

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Speaker 3: by the disaster sooner than this.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Trump was there early. He was there on Monday

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Speaker 6: to in Georgia. You know some of the less affected areas.

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Speaker 6: You know, Biden today will be in the Carolinas, which

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Speaker 6: has really gotten the brunt of the damage and the

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Speaker 6: loss of life. I will note that Trump criticized Harris

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Speaker 6: for being in California fundraising instead of focusing on the

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Speaker 6: hurricane over the weekend. Today Trump is fundraising in Texas,

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Speaker 6: So there's a little bit of a tit for tat there.

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Speaker 6: But this is going to be a potentially defining you

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Speaker 6: for the election. You have two swing states that are affected.

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Speaker 6: There's already questions in North Carolina about you know, how

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Speaker 6: people are going to be able to vote, polling places affected,

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Speaker 6: polling workers, affected, mail.

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Speaker 3: In ballots, et cetera. Yeah, the turnout question in the

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Speaker 3: ground game question is massive, and of course you want

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Speaker 3: to address the humanitarian impact first before you really breach

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Speaker 3: the political one. But it could be incredibly WERI no.

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Speaker 4: It's absolutely right.

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Speaker 5: In fact, in this hour that Joe Biden's expected to

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Speaker 5: arrive in South Carolina on the first stop, and we'll

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Speaker 5: let you know how he's making his progress through the

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Speaker 5: South today. Kamala Harris in Georgia once again.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Bloomberg's Lord Davison, politics editor for us. Thank you

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Speaker 3: so much. And as we consider what has happened, domestically

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Speaker 3: in just the last few days, not just the hurricane,

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Speaker 3: but also the dock worker strike that has not been

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Speaker 3: all the news cycle has brought us. As this campaign

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Speaker 3: enters its final five weeks. Also news from the Middle East,

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Speaker 3: as Ron yesterday launched one hundred and eighty missiles at Israel.

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Speaker 3: Those were largely intercepted. But this is something that was

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Speaker 3: talked about on the debate stage last night. It was

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Speaker 3: the very first question that was fielded by Walls in

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Speaker 3: Vance and this is some of what Senator Advance had

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Speaker 3: to say.

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Speaker 7: Iran, which launched this attack, has received over one hundred

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Speaker 7: billion dollars and unfrozen assets thanks to the Kamala Harris administration.

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Speaker 7: What do they use that money for? They use it

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Speaker 7: to buy weapons that they're now launching against our allies

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Speaker 7: and god forbid, potentially launching against the United States as well.

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Speaker 8: Donald Trump recognized.

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Speaker 7: That for people to fear the United States, you needed

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Speaker 7: peace through strength. They needed to recognize that if they

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Speaker 7: got out of line, the United States global leadership would

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Speaker 7: put stability and peace back in the world.

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Speaker 3: So for more on what's happening in the Middle East

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Speaker 3: and the policy surrounding it, we turn now to Democratic

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Speaker 3: Congressman Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, who is of course a

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Speaker 3: veteran and a member of the House on Armed Services Committee. Congressman,

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Speaker 3: thank you so much for being with us. We heard

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Speaker 3: that kind of notion not just from JD. Evans, but

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Speaker 3: many Republicans yesterday as the attack was on going in

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Speaker 3: in its aftermath, a suggestion that it could have been

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Speaker 3: a result of this administration being too soft on Iran.

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Speaker 3: Is there any validity in that?

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Speaker 9: No, I mean, let's just go back in time a

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Speaker 9: minute to the Trump administration and understand what their policy did.

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Speaker 9: They pulled out of the nuclear Agreement, which not only

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Speaker 9: kept Iran over a year away from a bomb, but

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Speaker 9: gave us very tight surveillance on exactly what they were doing.

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Speaker 9: So even if you're someone who just believes that we

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Speaker 9: ultimately need to strike them militarily, we had the intelligence

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Speaker 9: back then to know exactly where to hit them. But

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Speaker 9: Trump pulled out of that deal. As a result, Iran

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Speaker 9: accelerated its nuclear program so that now they're within just

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Speaker 9: a few weeks of producing a bomb. And Trump replaced

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Speaker 9: that program that deal with what he called a maximum

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Speaker 9: pressure campaign, and his Secretary of Defense testified before our

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Speaker 9: Committee on the Hill. He said there were three goals

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Speaker 9: of the maximum pressure campaign. One to keep them away

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Speaker 9: from making building a nuclear weapon, Two to force them

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Speaker 9: to the negotiating table to get a better deal, in

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Speaker 9: three to reduce their support for other militias in the region.

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Speaker 9: On all three counts, Trump's plan failed miserably because they're

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Speaker 9: way closer to making a bomb, they were pushed further

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Speaker 9: away from the negotiating table, and we've seen the effects

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Speaker 9: of their support for militias in the region. So the

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Speaker 9: reality is that our Iran policy is in tatters because

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Speaker 9: of Donald Trump, not because of the Biden Harris administration.

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Speaker 5: Well, I wonder, Congressman, and welcome back, what you think

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Speaker 5: Israel's next move should be. They're promising a significant response

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Speaker 5: to what happened yesterday, and I just wonder your thoughts here,

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Speaker 5: as a combat veteran marine, what would be considered proportionate,

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Speaker 5: what would be appropriate? I know that the Biden administration

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Speaker 5: is trying to contain this, but should Israel not strike

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Speaker 5: at Iran's nuclear program?

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Speaker 9: Well, job, proportionate and appropriate are really important questions here,

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Speaker 9: not just for Israel, but for the United States because

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Speaker 9: Let's be clear, we do not want to get drawn

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Speaker 9: in to a war in the Middle East with Americans

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Speaker 9: fighting and dying and taking our eye off the ball

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Speaker 9: in the Pacific where our number one national security threat,

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Speaker 9: something that Democrats and Republicans agree on is with China's

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Speaker 9: threat to Taiwan. So how do we achieve that while

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Speaker 9: also sending Iran a very strong message that they can't

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Speaker 9: just shoot one hundred and eighty ballistic missiles at Israel,

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Speaker 9: a close ally of ours, with impunity. So there has

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Speaker 9: to be a response, but it has to be a

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Speaker 9: response calibrated correctly to send a very strong, definitive message

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Speaker 9: to Iran, but also not start a war that involves

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Speaker 9: the United States. I remember back to decisions we made

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Speaker 9: in Iraq where when we first by marine unit first

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Speaker 9: showed up in Najaf, a town that had been controlled

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Speaker 9: by the army. The army had this uneasy truce with

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Speaker 9: the militants that allowed them free reign in parts of

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Speaker 9: the city. We thought that was totally unacceptable, so we

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Speaker 9: initially made a huge show of force with our patrols

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Speaker 9: right into play. The army refused to go in part

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Speaker 9: to draw out the militants to make them attack us

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Speaker 9: so that when so that then we could respond, have

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Speaker 9: a fair fight, and ultimately finish them off. That's an

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Speaker 9: example of where we wanted to provoke a response. In

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Speaker 9: many ways, this is kind of the opposite. You want

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Speaker 9: to send a very clear message to Iran, but ultimately

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Speaker 9: it's a message of deterrence, not something that provokes a

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Speaker 9: wider war that's not in Israel's interest nor in the

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Speaker 9: interests of the United States.

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Speaker 3: President Biden was asked as he was boarding the plane

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Speaker 3: bound for South Carolina today Congressman if he would support

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Speaker 3: an attack on Iran's nuclear sites. He answered no, Is

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Speaker 3: that because it is too great of a provocation.

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Speaker 9: Well, that's the question, really, and we have intelligence estimates

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Speaker 9: that can try to get at this. What would Iran's

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Speaker 9: response be if we tried to take out their nuclear facilities. Actually,

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Speaker 9: the most important question that we have to ask is

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Speaker 9: how quickly would they reconstitute their nuclear capability and would

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Speaker 9: they then just go right to producing a bomb, Whereas

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Speaker 9: up until now, even though they're very close they have

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Speaker 9: the weapons material to produce a bomb, they haven't actually

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Speaker 9: built a nuclear weapon. That's a really important question because

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Speaker 9: I get the fact that it sounds like a great

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Speaker 9: opportunity here, you know, just bomb their nuclear program into oblivion.

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Speaker 9: But what happens next really matters. And if what happens

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Speaker 9: next is that they very quickly reconstitute their program but

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Speaker 9: actually then have live nuclear weapons because they say, Okay,

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Speaker 9: we learned our lesson, We're not going to let this

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Speaker 9: happen again, then we've actually taken a step backwards. And

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Speaker 9: that's why the President is being very careful about advising

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Speaker 9: Israel on whether or not to target their nuclear program

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Speaker 9: as opposed to all sorts of other targets like the

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Speaker 9: ballistic missile program that was actually used against Israel.

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Speaker 5: For this response, Congress, when we had a recent conversation

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Speaker 5: with you about stolen valor and some of the criticisms

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Speaker 5: or accusations against Tim Wall's we're misrepresenting some of his

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Speaker 5: military service record, I expected this was going to come

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Speaker 5: up in the debate last night.

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Speaker 4: These are charges that JD.

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Speaker 5: Vance has repeatedly leveled against Tim Walls, and we never

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Speaker 5: went there. And I just wonder what your thought was,

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Speaker 5: if that might be what we call progress at this

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Speaker 5: current moment in American politics.

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Speaker 9: Well, I'm an optimist Joe, and I'd like to say

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Speaker 9: that's progress because the debate last night, if there's one

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Speaker 9: thing he can say about it, it was actually quite respectful,

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Speaker 9: and that's the kind of political dialogue that we should

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Speaker 9: see in the United States of America. Now, there were

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Speaker 9: a lot of things that jd Vance said that were

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Speaker 9: simply untrue. I'd love to get not only too respectful,

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Speaker 9: but to truthful when we have a debate. But the

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Speaker 9: fact that they didn't just attack each other's service was

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Speaker 9: certainly heartening to I think many of US veterans who

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Speaker 9: were watching last night.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think a lot of us were surprised by

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Speaker 3: the true political conversation, substance policy conversation that these two

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Speaker 3: seemed to be having. But there was not just a

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Speaker 3: military service thing that was avoided on the stage, and

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Speaker 3: maybe that is to the benefit of the American people,

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Speaker 3: but other subjects as well, like the ongoing war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: There wasn't even a direct question asked about policy when

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Speaker 3: it comes to China, though the candidates did work that

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Speaker 3: into some of their answers about other subjects. As we

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Speaker 3: have these foreign policy conversations surrounding the Middle East, was

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Speaker 3: there something missing last night, Congressman, did the American people

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Speaker 3: need to hear from, say jd Vance, what his views

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Speaker 3: were on Ukraine.

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Speaker 9: Look, I think there's a lot missing because even though

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Speaker 9: political presidential elections are almost always focused primarily on domestic issues,

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Speaker 9: that's usually how presidents win elections. This is an incredibly

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Speaker 9: dangerous time for us in the world. And we've got

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Speaker 9: this conflagration in the Middle East that could explode all

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Speaker 9: overnight into an all out war drawing in the United States.

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Speaker 9: A Sieging Ping could choose to invade Taiwan any day,

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Speaker 9: which would literally start World War three. I mean, we're

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Speaker 9: talking about war games that predict this goes nuclear. So

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Speaker 9: everybody in the world would be affected by a war

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Speaker 9: in the Pacific. And of course, we have an ongoing

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Speaker 9: conflict in Ukraine that's absolutely devastating, not only to the

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Speaker 9: Ukrainian people, but to economies around the world and to

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Speaker 9: you know, it's a real threat to the future of NATO.

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Speaker 9: Donald Trump is on Putin's side with Ukraine, Let's not

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Speaker 9: mince words. He is on Russia's side in their war

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Speaker 9: of aggression. He refused to even say in his own

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Speaker 9: debate whether he wanted Ukraine to win I mean, this

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Speaker 9: is unbelievable, and yes, jd Vance should have been asked

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Speaker 9: to answer that question and explain this horrendous, really traitorous

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Speaker 9: policy that he and his boss have when it comes

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Speaker 9: to the war in Ukraine and the threat that it

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Speaker 9: poses to all of Europe. So that's a very important

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Speaker 9: topic and I sure wish we got into it last night.

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Speaker 5: Indeed, a couple of other things I wish we'd heard

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Speaker 5: more about.

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Speaker 4: Congressman. It's good to see you.

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Speaker 5: Thanks for help us understand and distill what we saw

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Speaker 5: and heard last evening. Seth Molton, the Democrat from Massachusetts,

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Speaker 5: beaming in loud and clear in the city of Boston

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Speaker 5: on ninety two to nine FM, our new signal in Boston.

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Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. We'll assemble

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Speaker 5: our panel next Kayley with takeaways from last night, not

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Speaker 5: so much about who won or who lost, but whether

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Speaker 5: this left that dent or made any impact on the campaign.

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Speaker 3: And what further catalysts might there be if there is

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Speaker 3: no other debate after this. We have less than five

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Speaker 3: weeks to go. We'll have more next here on Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: TV and Radio.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 2: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enron

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Speaker 2: Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 3: Thirty back in Washington after yesterday's vice presidential debate in

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Speaker 3: New York, where we were as well. But now it's

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Speaker 3: the day after the debate, and the candidates once again

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Speaker 3: are on the move, including Kamala Harris heading to Georgia

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Speaker 3: today to survey and part the aftermath of Hurricane Helen

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Speaker 3: in that critical battleground state. Joe Biden, for his part,

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Speaker 3: is viewing the aftermath as well. He should be touching

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Speaker 3: down any minute now in Greenville, South Carolina. He will

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Speaker 3: then head to North Carolina later today. And Joe, we

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Speaker 3: just heard from the White House Press Secretary Karine Jean

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Speaker 3: Pierre that tomorrow he will make his own trip to

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Speaker 3: Georgia as well as Florida.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I guess they'll be crisscrossing essentially through the Southeastern states.

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Speaker 5: And remarkable to think that all of this happened in

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Speaker 5: two of the most important swing states that will decide

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Speaker 5: this election, with a lot of questions about voter turnout,

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Speaker 5: ballot access and so forth. They're actually gaggling on Air

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Speaker 5: Force One right now, Karine, Jean Pierre and Alejandro Maiorcis,

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Speaker 5: of course the Homeland Security Secretary, talking about the President's

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Speaker 5: need to interact with individuals. He can be meeting with

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Speaker 5: first responders, state local police when he gets to South Carolina,

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Speaker 5: will do an aerial tour of North Carolina. And Kaylee,

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Speaker 5: we're sending a thousand soldiers seems to help with the

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Speaker 5: recovery effort as well.

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Speaker 4: All this emerging on Air Force One today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and of course that recovery effort is still ongoing.

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Speaker 3: While we know that nearly two hundred people have been

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Speaker 3: killed by this storm, there were still hundreds unaccounted for,

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Speaker 3: and the repair work needed for transit infrastructure and the

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Speaker 3: like to get these people clean food or clean water

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Speaker 3: and the food that they need, all of that could

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Speaker 3: take sometime.

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Speaker 8: Still.

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Speaker 5: Clean water is going to be a major factor as

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Speaker 5: we work our way through this. Let's assemble our panel

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Speaker 5: as they consider the political optics behind all of this.

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Speaker 5: Rick Davis of course is with us Bloomberg Politics contributed

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Speaker 5: Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside Kristin Hant,

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Speaker 5: Democratic strategist and partner at Rock Solutions here in Washington, Rick,

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Speaker 5: what's your thought on this the potential opportunities and pitfalls

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Speaker 5: that come with staging political optics around a natural disaster.

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Speaker 5: Everyone's going to get their chance. Trump was in Georgia

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Speaker 5: on Monday. Now it's Biden and Harris.

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Speaker 10: Yeah. Well, I think you start with Biden, and that

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Speaker 10: is he is the most empathetic president we've had a

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Speaker 10: long time. I mean, he can connect with people who

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Speaker 10: have had issues. He's had a lot of practice doing

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Speaker 10: it is both senator, vice president now as president, and

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Speaker 10: so I would anticipate that he is a positive force

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Speaker 10: in all this. He'll connect with folks on the ground

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Speaker 10: on this trip, make the right comments about support, and frankly,

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Speaker 10: do the job. You know, he's got a day job

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Speaker 10: being president United States and handling these kinds of disasters

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Speaker 10: is probably one of the most important things he could

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Speaker 10: do as president. I think it's a real test for

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Speaker 10: Kamala Harris. You know, we haven't seen her in this

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Speaker 10: role that often, and she's now going to be front

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Speaker 10: and center, how she connects with people, what she says

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Speaker 10: off the stump. When she's in these situations, she has

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Speaker 10: to be able to show empathy, caring, a resolve to

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Speaker 10: improve the situation of these people who have been under

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Speaker 10: so much stress, and take action. I mean action is

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Speaker 10: something I think that goes underrated. I think Donald Trump

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Speaker 10: gets credit for being action oriented. See you'll point over

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Speaker 10: to the truck. This truck has stuff that everybody needs

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Speaker 10: here today that I brought action. What he lacks is empathy.

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Speaker 10: And so I think that'll be a big contrast this

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Speaker 10: week and see how it shakes out.

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Speaker 3: Well, Kristin, As we consider the different responses we may

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Speaker 3: get from the candidates, it's also worth pointing out that

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump did get there first. He was in Georgia

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Speaker 3: earlier this week, days before Harris or Biden will make

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Speaker 3: their presence known. Obviously, we heard from the administration that

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Speaker 3: they did not want to go to these affected areas

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Speaker 3: until it was not going to be disruptive for them

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Speaker 3: to do so. But optically, are they arriving too late.

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. I mean, as Rick said, they

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Speaker 1: both have day jobs, and when you're moving around the

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Speaker 1: president and the Vice president. It's just incredibly disruptive. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, I I think that Kamala is a very

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Speaker 1: you know, when you see her on in these moments

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Speaker 1: where she's interacting with people, I think she's got she's

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Speaker 1: got the right kind of demeanor, and I think that

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Speaker 1: ultimately she will demonstrate that she, you know, can be

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Speaker 1: this person, can be this president. I mean, Biden is,

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Speaker 1: like Rick said, is one of his strong suits. But

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Speaker 1: you know, I immediately thought back to, you know, Puerto

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Speaker 1: Rico and President Trump, you know, being on the ground

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Speaker 1: even when you know maybe it was a little bit

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Speaker 1: too early. Some say yes, no, but you know, throwing

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Speaker 1: paper towels at people. He just he doesn't play that role.

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Speaker 1: And we've seen him in that role and fail at

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Speaker 1: it miserably. So while he may be actually ring, and

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Speaker 1: I think this is time when Kamala Harris should shine.

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Speaker 11: Well.

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Speaker 5: Of course, it was the running Mates turn last night,

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Speaker 5: and we've been trying to better understand the impact if

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Speaker 5: there was any, from this vice presidential debate, and we'd

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Speaker 5: love both of you to weigh in on this. Bring

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Speaker 5: you back to an interesting moment. Remembering the rules, or

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Speaker 5: at least those that were agreed upon here with CBS

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Speaker 5: were a bit different than what we had seen. Microphones

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Speaker 5: were to be unmuted. They did actually end up muting

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Speaker 5: the mics at one point, and the moderators were not

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Speaker 5: to fact check. At least that's what had been reported.

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Speaker 5: CBS was going to leave this up to the candidates.

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Speaker 5: It didn't end up working out that way.

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Speaker 4: As we'll remind you.

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Speaker 12: Now, just to clarify for our viewers, Springfield, Ohio does

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Speaker 12: have a large number of Haitian migrants who have legal

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Speaker 12: status temporary protected.

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Speaker 10: Thank you, senator.

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Speaker 8: We have so much to get to, Margaret. I think

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Speaker 8: it's important we're going to turn out of the economy.

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Speaker 8: Thanks Margaret.

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00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 7: The rules were that you got we're going to fact check,

439
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 7: and since you're fact checking me, I think it's important

440
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 7: to say what's actually going on.

441
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 5: Okay, awkward at best, as we're talking about the matter

442
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 5: in Springfield, remember Ohio eating cats.

443
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 4: And dogs and the rest of it.

444
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 5: Rick, What does it say when we've gotten to this

445
00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 5: point where it's okay for a politician to comfortably push

446
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 5: back on the idea of being fact checked.

447
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 4: Shouldn't they welcome it?

448
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 10: You know, I don't think we're in an era where

449
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 10: truth prevails. So if you have a slippery slope on truth,

450
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 10: then no, people don't want to be fact checked. And

451
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 10: this kind of fell into the category of you know,

452
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 10: we have a different version of the truth, the old

453
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 10: Kelly and Conway line, right, and really be a different

454
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 10: version of the truth. Yeah, I mean, they're either these

455
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 10: immigrants through there under legal protected status or they're not.

456
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 10: It doesn't matter how they got the legal protected status,

457
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 10: which is what j die Vance was. I actually would

458
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 10: argue that the more he talked, the worse it was

459
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 10: for him to try and explain legal protected status for

460
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 10: an illegal for an immigrant under the of the law.

461
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 10: So look, I mean it was a sloppy debate. The

462
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 10: moderators did things they said they weren't going to do,

463
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 10: as you pointed out, and I think that opened it

464
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 10: up for the contestants to do whatever they want to do.

465
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 10: And obviously that didn't add to a positive discourse. That

466
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 10: being said, I thought it was a minor disturbance and

467
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 10: otherwise a pretty sanguine debate.

468
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was largely civil, pretty respectful. They shook each

469
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 3: other's hands, they agreed with each other frequently frankly throughout

470
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 3: the debate, Kristen. I think a lot of people were

471
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 3: expecting that you perhaps could see some more fire on

472
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 3: the stage than we actually got, and instead what we saw,

473
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 3: at least on the part of JD. Vance, was putting

474
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 3: real or an attempt to put real substance behind some

475
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 3: of the policy issues that we hear Donald Trump just

476
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 3: kind of floating at rallies, putting out there trying to

477
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 3: explain the view of the ticket when it comes to

478
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 3: the economy and hit home the message that we've heard

479
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 3: Donald Trump kind of touch on perhaps the varying degrees

480
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 3: of success that if Kamala Harris were going to be

481
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 3: able to address the economy, address the border, address all

482
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 3: of these things, she had the opportunity to do so

483
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 3: over the last three and a half years. Is Vance

484
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 3: now the effective messenger for the Trump campaign? Does that

485
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 3: give you cause to worry what you saw from him

486
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 3: on the stage last.

487
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 1: Night, I mean, beyond him just lying and good the model,

488
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: the fact that they are so blatant about not wanting

489
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: the facts to be out there, and I leave it

490
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 1: to a very accomplished journalist to say, no, they're not illegal,

491
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: you know, aliens, And so I appreciated that actually you know,

492
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: I think the the way that this whole debate you know,

493
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 1: went down, I think that you know jd. Vance, I'd say,

494
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 1: unfortunately from my side, but he take the the policies

495
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:57,360
Speaker 1: of the Trump campaign and makes them seem normal. He's

496
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 1: very good at this. You know, he's very polished. So

497
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 1: it's very it can be very concerning to Democrats and

498
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: that you have somebody that's not like Donald Trump. He's

499
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: not you know, taking the bait. He's not going to

500
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:15,879
Speaker 1: rallies and going on in in incoherent ways for you know,

501
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: hours on end. You know, he's he's he's espousing the

502
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 1: same dangerous policies, but saying it in a way that

503
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 1: I think, you know, could really relate to people. He's

504
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: a good looking guy. You know, he delivers it in

505
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 1: the right way. I think where he really had some

506
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 1: trouble was on the issue of abortion. They do not

507
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: have an answer for that. I think he came off

508
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: a week you know, till molts clearly, you know, Democrats

509
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 1: have a clear message on this. The Republicans are trying

510
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: to play it on both sides and they haven't been successful.

511
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: But you know, he is a good messenger.

512
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 4: Well indeed, Rick.

513
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 5: I wonder if we're going to see more of jd

514
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,679
Speaker 5: Vance after what took place last night. If you were

515
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 5: running that campaign, would you not want him out in

516
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 5: front of the camera. Is essentially sanding down the edges

517
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 5: as we keep hearing from analysts this morning on Trump

518
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 5: policies and statements.

519
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think it's a new potential weapon in the

520
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 10: arsenal of the Marlago team. I would definitely move him

521
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 10: around the media more. I think his stick on the

522
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 10: campaign trail has been to get into sort of combative

523
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 10: exchanges with the media, But I think more long form

524
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 10: kind of interviews where he can do exactly what you've

525
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 10: just been describing, you know, sort of take the sharp

526
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 10: edges off of the Maga movement, is very helpful to

527
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,640
Speaker 10: the campaign. Now, I would say it's not very helpful.

528
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 8: To the base. I mean, the base doesn't want.

529
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 10: To hear all this sort of you know, Chamber of

530
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 10: Commerce version of Donald Trump.

531
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 8: Right.

532
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 13: They want the fire and.

533
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 11: Bridge, So bring back Donald.

534
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 10: She's a communist.

535
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 8: You didn't see that last night.

536
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 10: My guess is if you took a pull in Maga.

537
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 14: World, they'd say, oh, yeah, I think that was okay,

538
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 14: but kind of a flake, right, I mean, you know,

539
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 14: the squish, you know, all those terms to refer to people,

540
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 14: as you know, who weren't like hardcore conservatives.

541
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 3: All right. Rick Davis and Kristen Hanner political panel on

542
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 3: this day after the vice presidential debate. Thank you both

543
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 3: so much for joining us as we consider what's going

544
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,360
Speaker 3: to come next. Because that was it. No more scheduled

545
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 3: debates in this cycle, Joe, No more for sure known events. Well,

546
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 3: we'll see multiple candidates sharing a space between now and

547
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 3: November fifth.

548
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 5: What do we do for the next five weeks? Wait

549
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 5: for the October surprise. You know it's coming. I love

550
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 5: more ahead. This is Bloomberg.

551
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

552
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

553
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 2: and then Roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

554
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

555
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 2: live on YouTube.

556
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 5: Thanks for being with us here the Wednesday edition of

557
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 5: Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio. You can

558
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,439
Speaker 5: always find us on YouTube as well. Searched Bloomberg Business

559
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 5: News Live this day after Iran chose to attack Israel

560
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 5: directly for the second time in six months, firing nearly

561
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 5: two hundred missiles. As we've been reporting, it was happening

562
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 5: right at this time yesterday. We've since learned a bit

563
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 5: more from the Pentagon. Knowing of course that the US

564
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 5: helped to repel and attack by Iran against Israel in April,

565
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 5: where we saw American fighter pilots shooting down drones and

566
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 5: rockets air to air, it was a little bit different yesterday,

567
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 5: the Pentagon reporting that two Navy destroyers fired about a

568
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 5: dozen interceptors against the Iranian missiles. Those destroyers, including the

569
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 5: USS coal having heard as well from President Biden, who

570
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 5: gave the go ahead for the US to take part

571
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 5: in this mission, let's listen.

572
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 15: At my direction, the Isay's military actively supported the defense

573
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 15: of Israel, and we're still assessing the impact, but based

574
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 15: on what we know, the attack peers to have been

575
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 15: defeated and ineffective, and this is testament to Israeli military

576
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 15: capability and the US military. I'm also also a testament

577
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 15: to intensive planning between the United States and Israel to

578
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 15: anticipate and defend against the praise of attack we expected.

579
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: So for more on what's happening in the Middle East

580
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 3: and the kind of retaliation we could expect from Israel

581
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 3: and potentially Iran in return. We turned out to Alex Matanka.

582
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 3: He is director of the Iran Program and Senior Fellow

583
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 3: of the Black Sea Program at the Middle East Institute.

584
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Alex. It's good

585
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 3: to have you as we follow this newsflow. Israel, of course,

586
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 3: is promising retaliation and consequences for the events of yesterday. Iran,

587
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 3: in return, is vowing a stronger response if Israel does retaliate.

588
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 3: But you pointed out yesterday in a post on X

589
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 3: that you see Iran as holding a bad hand here.

590
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 3: So how powerful and strong of a response is Iran

591
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 3: really capable of delivering.

592
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 13: Oh, it's great to be with you. Look, I mean

593
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 13: it's important enough to underestimate the Islamic Republic of Iran.

594
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 13: It's not a regime that is popular with its own people.

595
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 13: And one of the things I pointed out yesterday, I

596
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 13: think it's the elephant in the room. The Iranian regime

597
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 13: doesn't have the support of the Iranian people for what

598
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 13: it is doing in the region, what it's doing in

599
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 13: terms of supporting these proxies, and is certainly is opposition

600
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 13: against Israel's right to exist as a country. These are

601
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 13: not policies that the regime has the backing of the

602
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 13: Iranian people for. So the regime knows that, and I

603
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 13: think that is going to be a big part of

604
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 13: why they are hoping that their volley of missiles that

605
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 13: they fired at Israel yesterday will not be met by

606
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 13: major response from Israel. We have to wait and see,

607
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 13: but that's the hope in to Iran because they really

608
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 13: do want to move on. Because I think fundamentally what

609
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 13: the Iranian regime is banking on is this sort of

610
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 13: long war against Israel, war of attrition. Have groups like

611
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 13: Hamas and his Balla bleed these raelies year in year out,

612
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 13: and Iran can sit away five hundred miles away and

613
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 13: just watch this show. Well you've seen these relies of

614
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 13: saying it's not going to happen. I'm going to take

615
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 13: the war to Iran, and that's why we have the

616
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 13: tensions that we're seeing right now.

617
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 5: Well, I wonder your thoughts on that and what the

618
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,959
Speaker 5: next step should be. If Iran doesn't think it can

619
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 5: afford a wider war with Israel, and if Israel has

620
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 5: the superior military why not go for it now? If

621
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 5: you're Israel, why not attack Iran's nuclear program while you

622
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 5: have the opportunity.

623
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 13: Joe, It's easiest said than done. Iran learned over the

624
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 13: last few decades in terms of how to build and

625
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 13: how to spread out, if you will, it's nuclear facility.

626
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 13: It's not one side or two or three sides, multiple

627
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 13: sides across the country. The size of Iran, just to

628
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 13: give you an example, is three times the size of

629
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 13: the country of France. So you know it's a major

630
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 13: undertaking for Israel. I'm not sure if Israeli's military can

631
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 13: do this on their own. And the big, big question

632
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 13: is will the United States go in and help them

633
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 13: in such a mission? And, to be honest, sitting here

634
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 13: in Washington following the debate, if you will, the United

635
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 13: States clearly wants to help Israel in defending itself. But

636
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 13: that's a very different matter than taking this country to

637
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 13: a mission where you are taking out multiple sites in

638
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 13: Iran that could open a conflict that, as I said,

639
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 13: I don't think this administration certainly is interested.

640
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, defense and offense are very different things, and that

641
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 3: is important to point out here as we consider though

642
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 3: the idea that the US would come to aid Israel,

643
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 3: that you would see an alliance at work, knowing that

644
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 3: in the attack Iron launched at Israel back in April,

645
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 3: it was not just the US that was helping defensively,

646
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 3: but the UK Jordan was involved in that as well.

647
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 3: I wonder what you think would realistically happen if we

648
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 3: were to see more retaliation between Iran and Israel, if

649
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 3: the US were to get more materially involved. Who else

650
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 3: is drawn in? Is anyone going to come to Iran's

651
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 3: defense other than the proxies that it has been funding

652
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 3: and have been materially weakened by the Israeli military's efforts

653
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 3: over the last year.

654
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 13: Okayly, I think that's exactly the right question to ask,

655
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 13: And frankly, I think the answer to that is Iran,

656
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 13: the Islamic Republic of Iran, I should say, is strategically alone.

657
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 13: I would be very hard pressed to point out a

658
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 13: country that I could say for sure will come and

659
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 13: side with Iran in a war where Israel and Iran

660
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 13: and fighting it out. The Russians are not going to

661
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 13: come to Iran's eight, regardless of all the pleasantries that

662
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 13: you hear, for Vladimir Putin and Ali Khameny and Tyrannic change.

663
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 13: The Chinese are not going to come to Iran's eight.

664
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 13: The Arab world by and large is going to at

665
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 13: best sit at the sidelines watch this, and frankly, a

666
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 13: lot of these Arab governments, particularly the Gulf States, they're

667
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 13: happy to say Israel destroy his balah hamas, these non

668
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 13: state Arab militant actors. So the Iranians have a number

669
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 13: of proxy groups that they can maybe rely upon, but look,

670
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 13: the biggest of him always his Ballah, an entity Iran

671
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,479
Speaker 13: invested in for forty two years, hundreds of millions of dollars,

672
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 13: and in the span of a few weeks we've seen

673
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 13: Israel destroy much of his Ball's capability. So is this

674
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 13: not a moment for Iran to gamble and go into

675
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 13: a conflict that militarily it really is, as I said,

676
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 13: in a strategically lonely place and at a major disadvantage.

677
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 5: Is it a moment for Israel to make a major

678
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 5: move against Iran without the blessing of the United States.

679
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 13: Look, that's obviously what Prime minist In Nitanyahu is saying.

680
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 13: He's even talking about helping the Iranian people help themselves

681
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 13: from this Islamis regime. I don't know what the Israelis

682
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 13: have in mind in terms of planning. If it's serious,

683
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 13: that would be a game changer. That could be the

684
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 13: outcome of the last year where you say, if you're Israel,

685
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 13: you say to the world, look, if you want sustained

686
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 13: stability in the Middle East, there's only one way forward,

687
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 13: which is either this Iranian regime entirely changes its regional agenda,

688
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 13: pulls back in and focuses on Iranian national interest, or

689
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 13: you go for the jugular. As a said, you go

690
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 13: for regime change. I don't know what what Israel will

691
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,800
Speaker 13: end up doing, but right now, obviously they have multiple fronts.

692
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 13: They are fighting Amas now increasingly in Lebanon. And who

693
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 13: helps Israel in this mission? Again, that's another major question

694
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 13: mark for me. So a lot of moving parts in

695
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 13: all of this, but I just want to say, finally

696
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 13: on this issue of Iran, this is this fight that

697
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 13: the Iranian regime has picked against Israel is really an

698
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 13: ideological uh project of a few men at the top

699
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 13: of the edgelons of power in Tehran. This is not

700
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 13: Iran's fight. Whatever one thinks of the Arab is really

701
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 13: conflict that's between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and Iran

702
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 13: is just throwing stone at it. It's not helping.

703
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 6: UH.

704
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 13: And what we've seen is Iranian actions and those are

705
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 13: the proxies that are aligned with Iran is just you know,

706
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:50,359
Speaker 13: destabilizing the region further.

707
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:56,320
Speaker 3: Well, we've had many questions throughout the last year around

708
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 3: leverage and influence, both in terms of the US ability

709
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 3: to act size leverage over Israel influence its own military decisions,

710
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:07,280
Speaker 3: whether it comes to conduct in Gaza or now in Lebanon,

711
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:11,280
Speaker 3: questions around Iran's ability to influence in its own own proxies.

712
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 3: And there's also the question of how US policy is

713
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 3: able to influence Iranian behavior directly. We heard from President

714
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 3: Biden today talking about the prospect of more sanctions. There

715
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 3: are sanctions in place. Republicans, including Senator j D Vance

716
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 3: on the debate stage last night, argue that they have

717
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 3: been not enough, that it's been effectively appeasement of Iran.

718
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 3: Will sanctions further sanctions make a difference in behavior here?

719
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 3: Do you believe?

720
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 13: To be honest, I don't think more sanctions alone is

721
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 13: going to cut it anymore. I mean Iran today is

722
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 13: the second most sanctioned country on Earth after the Russian

723
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 13: Federation over five thousand sanctions and Iran's been under one

724
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 13: sanction another since nineteen eighty three, when the State Department

725
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 13: put them on the terrorism this sponsor of terrorism for

726
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 13: the first time so a long time. There's a whole

727
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 13: industry in Iran where basically people are in agent cutting

728
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 13: around sanctions and there are like Monday countries out there

729
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 13: that share the sort of anti Americanism that the Islamic

730
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 13: Republic has, most notably Russia, you know, China and North

731
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 13: Koreas of this world. They get together, they go around

732
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 13: the sanctions. And the tragedy in all of this for

733
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 13: the Iranian people is while the regime can you know,

734
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 13: go around sanctions and survive for another day. This is

735
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 13: costing the Iranian nation hundreds of billion dollars each year

736
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 13: in lost economic potential because guess what, nobody's going to

737
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 13: invest in Iran, which should be one of the largest

738
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 13: economies certainly in the Middle East, if not beyond that.

739
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 13: So this is an Iranian regime that has chosen a

740
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 13: foreign policy that really is costing the Iranian nation dearly.

741
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 13: And if you're sitting in Washington, what are your President Biden?

742
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:49,839
Speaker 13: What are your President Trump? You know you have an

743
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 13: Iranian counterpart that really seriously doesn't want to cut deals.

744
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 13: I would argue, and I now a lot of people

745
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 13: will push back and say, well, they signed a nuclear

746
00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 13: deal in twenty fifteen. It was American site that walked away.

747
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 13: That's one side of the story. The reality is you

748
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 13: cannot have an Iran that signs nuclear deals or other

749
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 13: agreements when the US on certain issues, while it wants

750
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 13: to kick the United States and Israel out of the

751
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 13: Middle East, they just go don't go hand in hand.

752
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:17,320
Speaker 13: If you want to be normal, you have to be

753
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 13: one hundred percent normal. You can't be fifty percent normal.

754
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 13: And that's the challenge for the Iranian regime right now,

755
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 13: the path they have to choose going forward.

756
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 5: Well, the timing is not lost on us here, Alex.

757
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 5: The fact that this attack took place on the eve

758
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 5: of the start of the Jewish high Holy Days. What

759
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 5: is going to transpire with that in mind in the

760
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 5: next ten days as Iran looks at the calendar.

761
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 13: Look, Joe, I gotta think that this Iranian regime is

762
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 13: not that confident that they were really in a bad place.

763
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 13: I don't think they wanted to do what they did

764
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,839
Speaker 13: yesterday with those you know, firing those missiles. I think

765
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 13: they want to stay to the game plan, which is

766
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 13: the long war against Israel. Have the brought proxies, you know,

767
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 13: throw whatever they proxies can throw at Israel over a

768
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 13: long period of time, bleed Israel to the extent that

769
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,760
Speaker 13: what the Iranian regime media will call reverse Jewish migration,

770
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 13: that people that over the last few decades and so

771
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 13: on moved to Israel decide, you know what, this place

772
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 13: isn't safe enough. I'm going back. That is the Iranian

773
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 13: wishful thing that's going on here. But the killing of

774
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 13: Hassan Australa really put him in an awkward position.

775
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 8: You know.

776
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 13: It was the moment where emperor has no clothes on,

777
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 13: and this was the man that they had handpicked, cultivated

778
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:36,720
Speaker 13: for years. Suddenly he was gone. And everybody in the region,

779
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 13: among the proxies of Iran that Iran is working with,

780
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:42,240
Speaker 13: we're looking for Iran to do something, and for Iran

781
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 13: not to have done anything would have been in many

782
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 13: ways the end of them as a leader of the

783
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 13: access of resistance and that's what I think. They did

784
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 13: what they did, but they're still hoping that this big

785
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 13: Israeli retaliation that some Israeli reports are suggesting is coming

786
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 13: is not going to come, because that might give Iran

787
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 13: a way out of this too. They cannot afford, as

788
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 13: I said before, they are strategically alone in this. They

789
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 13: cannot afford the regional war. And again let me emphasize,

790
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 13: the Iranian people are against this war, so they can't

791
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,320
Speaker 13: even depend on their own people to rally around the

792
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 13: flag because the people of Iran buy and large, from

793
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 13: what I can tell, are blaming the regime from having

794
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 13: brought this on the people of Iran.

795
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,400
Speaker 5: Alex is great to have you back. We thank you

796
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,760
Speaker 5: for the insights. Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program

797
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 5: and Senior Fellow Black Sea Program at the Middle East Institute.

798
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

799
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

800
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 2: Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

801
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

802
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

803
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 5: Late night in an early morning we all managed to

804
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,240
Speaker 5: get back to the Capitol to be with you today

805
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 5: here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite radio, and on YouTube,

806
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 5: where you can find.

807
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 4: Us right now.

808
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 5: Search Bloomberg Business News Live and you'll find our a

809
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 5: live stream, yes, once again connecting New York to DC

810
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,919
Speaker 5: this day after the big debate, as we're reminded, of course,

811
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 5: of the natural disaster that we're trying to recover from

812
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:19,400
Speaker 5: in the Southeastern States, and the campaign does turn its

813
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 5: attention back there, beginning with the Commander in Chief himself,

814
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 5: Joe Biden, traveling to South Carolina. He will move on

815
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 5: to North Carolina getting an operational briefing and aerial tour

816
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 5: of the damage from Hurricane Helene. Kamala Harris headed to Georgia,

817
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 5: and she'll get a briefing there as well, see the

818
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:40,280
Speaker 5: devastation left from the storm. Knowing of course that Donald

819
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 5: Trump was there just a couple of days ago here

820
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 5: as we gauged the federal response. But of course that's

821
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 5: just one of the major stories that made the backdrop

822
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 5: for our debate last night, A massive natural disaster that,

823
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 5: by the way, might end up pulling lawmakers back into

824
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 5: town for a supplemental funding request, a remarkable moment as

825
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 5: Iran attacks Israel for the second time directly in six months,

826
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,399
Speaker 5: and the start of a doc workers strike, forty five

827
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 5: thousand workers off the job.

828
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 4: Ports are closed up and down the East Coast.

829
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 5: It is not often that we have moments like this

830
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 5: now less than five weeks from election day, and I'm

831
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 5: glad to say that we're joined by Frank Luntz.

832
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,959
Speaker 4: This is the voice we wanted on the day after.

833
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 4: And of course you know Frank.

834
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 5: From this program politics Communications consultant poster CEO of fil Inc. Frank,

835
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 5: it's great to see you, Welcome back. I want to

836
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 5: ask your thoughts on the debate, but before I do that,

837
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:45,839
Speaker 5: your thoughts on this moment that we are in now,

838
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 5: the significance of this many major stories impacting at once.

839
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 5: It's going to take us a long time to unpack

840
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 5: and understand this moment. What does it mean for voters?

841
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 11: But this is life and I'm sorry that this is

842
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 11: not the voice that I wanted to present to you,

843
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:04,800
Speaker 11: but I was up so late last night conducting the

844
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 11: focus group, and your viewers, I hope are going to

845
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,439
Speaker 11: have a chance to listen to it. This is life.

846
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 11: This is who we are right now. Weather issues, political issues,

847
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 11: global issues, economic issues, cultural and social issues all hitting

848
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 11: at the same time is basically what we're going through

849
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:27,800
Speaker 11: right now, and it's something you have to you should

850
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:31,839
Speaker 11: become accustomed to. I even see the instability in the marketplace,

851
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 11: why stocks are going up and down so quickly and

852
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 11: so patched intensely, we use that word instead. I think

853
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 11: this is going to be part of what America's like

854
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:44,800
Speaker 11: for the coming weeks, months, and even years, and that

855
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:50,360
Speaker 11: just as investors get used to instability and unpredictability, Americans

856
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:51,799
Speaker 11: are going to have to get used to it as well,

857
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 11: because this is how we are living our lives in

858
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 11: October of twenty twenty four.

859
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 5: So how do people make sense of this moment? And

860
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 5: how does a polster like yourself find any truth amid

861
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 5: all the noise? You mentioned your focus group. You sat

862
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 5: down with fourteen people last night post debate. I believe

863
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:15,320
Speaker 5: four of whom were women. They're looking down the barrel

864
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 5: of this campaign right now, with less than five weeks

865
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 5: to go. In every day, there's a shock in this

866
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 5: news cycle that might turn your attention or your opinion

867
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 5: one way or the other.

868
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 11: I actually tell them to watch Blueberg. Listen to Blueberg.

869
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 11: There's not a shred of partisanship on this courage, not

870
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 11: a shred of ideology, and simply, this is what happens,

871
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 11: this is what you need to know, and this is

872
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 11: how you can benefit from it. That's exactly what the

873
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 11: public is looking for, and it's very tough to find

874
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 11: since we are so polarizers, are divided. And in fact,

875
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 11: if I can refer back to that debate, there was

876
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 11: a different tone last night. How many times did our

877
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 11: Governor Walde and Senator Vance referred to each other and say,

878
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 11: I agree, or I understand that, or I have compassion

879
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 11: for you. It's a different kind of discussion than we

880
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 11: had with Trump and with Harris just a few weeks ago.

881
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,800
Speaker 11: Last night was the discussion the American people want to have.

882
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 11: Last night, they spoke about issues, they spoke about details.

883
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 11: They gave you a good idea of who they were

884
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:30,839
Speaker 11: as vice president and more importantly, what their administration would

885
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 11: seek to accomplish. I thought it was so good for democracy.

886
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 11: I thought it was something so constructive that I wanted

887
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 11: to bring it to Bloomberg because you'll all appreciate this.

888
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 11: It's exactly what your viewers want to hear and see.

889
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:51,359
Speaker 4: You tweeted, I saw this last night.

890
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 5: This VP debate is a model of how political discourse

891
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 5: should work. Of course, the first thing that we're supposed

892
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 5: to ask coming off the debate is who one and

893
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 5: I know that you were asking your focus group. That's

894
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 5: pretty lopsided result, Frank, what did you think?

895
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 11: Yes, it was very much for Dvance. And Vance went

896
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 11: in with a lot of doubts that because one of

897
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 11: the things we do, which is awesome is that we

898
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 11: asked people before the debate, what are your initial impressions?

899
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 11: And let me be candid with you. The initial impressions

900
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 11: of Senator Vans were quite negative, and there were people

901
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 11: who were voting for Trump that did not like his

902
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 11: vice presidential pick, and people were voting for Harris because

903
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 11: of Trump's vice presidential pick. And that was not the

904
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 11: reaction throughout the debate. Every time there's a commercial break,

905
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 11: I have the opportunity to seek out their point of view.

906
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:46,400
Speaker 11: So he listened to voters fifty five minutes into the

907
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,760
Speaker 11: debate and then again an hour and almost thirty minutes

908
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 11: into the debate, and the conclusions were clear and almost universal.

909
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 11: Number one, Both candidates dealt with the issues and gave specifics.

910
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:05,919
Speaker 11: Number two. Both candidates were forthcoming with answers to really

911
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 11: tough questions. However, Walt fell short in being candid about

912
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 11: issues such as inflation and about his previous service and

913
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 11: what he would do with the border. Vance had the advantage.

914
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 11: The only criticism of Vance was that he would not

915
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:31,720
Speaker 11: defend and would not articulate opposition to Donald Trump claiming

916
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 11: that the twenty twenty election was stolen or rigged. Other

917
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 11: than that, the public and these are one time undecided voters,

918
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 11: gave Vance the edge because they thought he was more

919
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 11: willing to deal with facts, more willing to be specific,

920
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 11: and most importantly, more willing to set out exactly what

921
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 11: needs to happen in the future rather than going back

922
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 11: and relitigate what happened between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty.

923
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:03,880
Speaker 5: Walked through a couple of these moments that you mentioned here, Frank. Indeed,

924
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:07,280
Speaker 5: Tim Walls had some trouble with a couple of questions

925
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 5: early on that you would have expected that he would

926
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 5: be prepared for, including this controversy over when he was

927
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 5: actually in China and whether he was in Hong Kong

928
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 5: at the time of Cnman Square. I just want to

929
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 5: go back to the debate last night for that exchange,

930
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 5: the way he handled that moment where he was given

931
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 5: the opportunity to clean this up.

932
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:28,399
Speaker 12: Just to follow up on that, the question was can

933
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,720
Speaker 12: you explain the notrepancy?

934
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 16: All I said on this was is I got there

935
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 16: that summer and misspoke on this, so I will just

936
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 16: that's what I've said.

937
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 8: So I was in.

938
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 16: Hong Kong and China during the democracy protest went in

939
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 16: and from that I learned a lot of what needed

940
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:48,760
Speaker 16: to be in governance.

941
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 5: He had some trouble with that one, and I'm guessing

942
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 5: that that's something that they worked on in prep knowing

943
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 5: that he was doing mock debates. Frank, I wonder your

944
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 5: thoughts on that. I saw another post on X last

945
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 5: evening during the debate that moment in which Tim Walls

946
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 5: for some reason said that he was friends with school shooters.

947
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 5: I guess he meant to say he'd become friends with

948
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:13,360
Speaker 5: victims of school shootings.

949
00:49:13,880 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 4: Does this matter for the voter?

950
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:21,320
Speaker 11: It doesn't mean voters are very forgiving. Voters believe in

951
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 11: a term that I'll use for your listeners, Grace and

952
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 11: they will allow people to make a misstep, but they

953
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 11: think that you're ducking the question that is unforgivable when

954
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,440
Speaker 11: you are only five weeks away from the election. And

955
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 11: they thought that Tim Waltz was much more likely to

956
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 11: duck the questions than jd. Vance. And in particular, when

957
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 11: you're talking about either immigration or national security or personal security,

958
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 11: the idea that you are crystal clear and explicit, you'll

959
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 11: get punished by the electorate. And that was his single

960
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 11: worst moment of debate. I didn't even know that that

961
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 11: was his excuse. Sounds reasonable to me, but last night

962
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 11: the group that I was watching was really unforgiving that

963
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 11: he would say such a thing. And this is what

964
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 11: makes for a debate winner and a debate loser.

965
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:24,400
Speaker 5: You mentioned twenty twenty stop the steal came up, and

966
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 5: I think many saw this as the best moment for

967
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 5: Tim Walls. Last evening, here's how this went, the exchange

968
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 5: between both candidates.

969
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 8: He is still saying he didn't lose the election.

970
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 16: I would just ask to that did he lose the

971
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:37,240
Speaker 16: twenty twenty election?

972
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 8: Tim, I'm focused on the future.

973
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 7: Did Kamala Harris censor Americans from speaking their mind?

974
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:46,240
Speaker 8: And the wake of the twenty twenty COVID situation.

975
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 5: Interesting reply there, Frank, did J. D. Evans do damage

976
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:55,800
Speaker 5: to the ticket last night with that answer?

977
00:50:56,800 --> 00:51:00,200
Speaker 11: No, but it was not an effective answer. And the

978
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 11: fact is, when JD. Vance was asked to defend some

979
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,359
Speaker 11: of the more ridiculous comments that Donald Trump has made,

980
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 11: that was not helpful to Vance. But Vance is a

981
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:14,720
Speaker 11: better defender of Donald Trump than even Trump is himself.

982
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:20,840
Speaker 11: Vance presents the context for every issue. He doesn't go crazy,

983
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:24,400
Speaker 11: he doesn't go doesn't say things that voters listen and

984
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 11: they think to themselves, what the hell Donald Trump should

985
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:31,800
Speaker 11: be winning this selection? To be clear, on the issue

986
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 11: of inflation, which I call affordability, because that's what voters say.

987
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 11: On the issue of immigration, which I refer to as

988
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 11: personal and national security. On these two key issues, Trump

989
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 11: has a distinct advantage. But Trump himself is his own

990
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 11: worst enemy, is his own worst communicator. All you need

991
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:58,720
Speaker 11: to do on the Republican side again, to defeat Donald

992
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 11: Trump used his own words against him, and JD. Vance

993
00:52:03,200 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 11: last night gave a better defense, a full throated, effective,

994
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 11: articulate defense of the Trunk campaign. If JD. Vance was

995
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:15,440
Speaker 11: on TV like he was last night. Every night for

996
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 11: the next thirty three days, Donald Trump would win, but

997
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:22,320
Speaker 11: he won't be And in the end, Trump will demand

998
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:24,840
Speaker 11: to be the center of attention. He'll demand to be

999
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 11: the focus of all the video, of all the cameras,

1000
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 11: of all the lights, and every time Trump does that,

1001
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 11: he loses votes. Conversely, Waltz was better than Harris because

1002
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:40,240
Speaker 11: he was more specific than Harris, He was more detailed

1003
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 11: than Harris. He gave you more context than Harris, and

1004
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 11: he didn't waste time like Harris does deflecting the questions.

1005
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:50,840
Speaker 11: So here we have a situation where both by his

1006
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 11: presidential candidates were superior to their presidential campaign. It's amazing

1007
00:52:56,600 --> 00:53:01,400
Speaker 11: to me, but it's also very uplifting because in the end,

1008
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 11: our focus who participants loved the tone, the contents, and

1009
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 11: the context of what they heard last night, and they

1010
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:14,240
Speaker 11: thought it was an example of democracy at its best,

1011
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 11: which is the first time in twenty twenty four that

1012
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:18,320
Speaker 11: they've said anything like that.

1013
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 5: Well, and again, I believe it was twelve to two

1014
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:26,840
Speaker 5: your panel, your focus group of fourteen people, two votes

1015
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 5: for Tim Walls, twelve for jd Vance. What happened in

1016
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 5: the room, What did you hear from people during that

1017
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:36,320
Speaker 5: exchange about twenty twenty.

1018
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 11: Well, here's the great thing is that I'm following the text,

1019
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 11: so they're making comments at the same time that I'm

1020
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 11: interviewing them, and as the debate is running, they're commenting

1021
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 11: in a chat box. And when they got to the

1022
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 11: twenty twenty election, almost to the person, they were disappointed.

1023
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 11: They were disilluded, disillusion by Vance's response. See, most Americans

1024
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 11: have moved on from twenty twenty, and even though Vance

1025
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 11: wanted to do so, he should have looked straight in

1026
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:12,839
Speaker 11: the camera and say, I accept the results. Now let's

1027
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,800
Speaker 11: focus on twenty twenty four. He didn't do that. He

1028
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,400
Speaker 11: probably didn't do that because Trump would have punished him

1029
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 11: for doing that. That said, it was not enough to

1030
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 11: tilt the participation of the focus groups, not enough to

1031
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:30,399
Speaker 11: tilt them in the direction of Waltz. But it really

1032
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:32,760
Speaker 11: was Vance's worst moment of the debate.

1033
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:35,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I only have a been at left. Frank.

1034
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 5: You also made clear on Twitter and following your focus

1035
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 5: group that maybe these were the two candidates who should

1036
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 5: be at the top of the ticket, that they had

1037
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 5: more to offer than their running mates.

1038
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:46,760
Speaker 4: Is that your takeaway?

1039
00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 11: It is and it's not a serious It's obvious that

1040
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 11: there's the second fiddle. It's obvious that they're the fact.

1041
00:54:56,760 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 11: But there's a message in that, which is we can

1042
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:03,120
Speaker 11: do better than what we have. We don't have to

1043
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:05,879
Speaker 11: have a horrific campaign. We don't have to tear each

1044
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:11,560
Speaker 11: other apart and show disrespect and delegitimize and dehumanize the opposition.

1045
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:15,920
Speaker 11: Last night we had a great debate, focus on content,

1046
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 11: told the American people where the candidates want to go,

1047
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 11: and it was productive and successful. And my only hope

1048
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 11: is the candidates, the presidential candidates are listening, and they

1049
00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 11: raised their game and they understand that they can make

1050
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 11: a positive difference versus their opponents.

1051
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 5: You better believe they were listening. Frank, It's great to

1052
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 5: see you. Thank you so much for peeking out a

1053
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 5: one eye and doing this on fumes. Frank Luntz CEO

1054
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 5: fil the conversation you'd tuned in for right here only

1055
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:47,960
Speaker 5: on Bloomberg.

1056
00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

1057
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:57,239
Speaker 5: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify,

1058
00:55:57,320 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 5: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us.

1059
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:03,200
Speaker 5: It's live every weekday from Washington, DC. At noontime Eastern

1060
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:04,719
Speaker 5: at Bloomberg dot com