1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emo CarPlay and 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: then Proud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 4 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 5 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 6 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:20,079 Speaker 2: We return to the situation in the Middle East. Is 7 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 2: The White House at this hour is weighing potential responses 8 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 2: to a drone strike conducted by iron Back militant that 9 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 2: killed three US troops on a base in Jordan and 10 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 2: injured dozens more. The President over the weekend said that 11 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 2: those responsible will be held to account in a manner 12 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 2: and at a time of his choosing. While there's some 13 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 2: pressure coming from Congress hawkish senators like Lindsey Graham or 14 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: John Cornyn who are actually pushing the administration to strike 15 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 2: Iran directly, something that the US has not actually done 16 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 2: in decades, and that they may be hesitant to do 17 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 2: because of concerns around escalating what's happening in the Middle East. 18 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: Ron I should point out has said that accusations it 19 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 2: was directly involved in this attack are baseless and said 20 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 2: that resistant groups in the region do not take orders 21 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 2: directly from the Islamic Republic. So let's get the latest 22 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 2: now with Peter Martin, who was Bloomberg's Global Defense and 23 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 2: Intelligence correspondent and is joining me here in studio. So, Peter, 24 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 2: do we know first of all how directly involved Iran was? 25 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 2: Are we taking to Ran at its word here? 26 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 3: I think it's fair to say that American and visuals 27 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 3: treat those Iranian statements with a high degree of skepticism. 28 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 3: Iran has, as you know, a network of proxies throughout 29 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 3: the region. Some of those proxies are very tightly controlled, 30 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 3: others there's a little bit more leeway. But when it 31 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 3: comes to taking decisions about killing American soldiers, about supplying 32 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 3: these proxy groups long term, I think it's fair to 33 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 3: say that the administration looks at Iran is very much 34 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 3: culpable here well. 35 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: And the fact that three soldiers were killed in this 36 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 2: this is the first time we have seen US troops 37 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: as casualty of what has been going on in the 38 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 2: Middle East since October seventh, and this war erupted between 39 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas. So theoretically you would maybe expect that 40 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 2: this would be the strongest response to anything we have 41 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 2: seen because troops actually died. But how strong is strong 42 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 2: here when they're saying it's going to be stronger than 43 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 2: the current operations they're conducting going after the Houthis and 44 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 2: these Iranian proxies. What options realistically around the table. 45 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 3: Well, you know, the administration needs to tread a very 46 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,920 Speaker 3: careful line here. They've been worried ever since the outbreak 47 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 3: of hostilities following the October percent the attacks that there's 48 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 3: the potential here for a broader regional war. There have 49 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 3: been clashes on Israel's northern border with Hesbala, there have 50 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 3: been the hoothy attacks that you mentioned, and of course 51 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 3: there have been these attacks by Iranian proxies from Iraq 52 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 3: and Syria, which most recently led to this watershed moment 53 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 3: where US soldiers died. So the administration is going to 54 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 3: be looking to send a very strong message. Those that 55 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 3: we've spoken to have said that they recognize that there 56 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 3: response needs to go above and beyond what's happened before. 57 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,119 Speaker 3: When it comes to something like striking Iran directly, that's 58 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 3: a pretty difficult decision to take, and it's something that 59 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 3: certainly would risk a kind of broader regional conflict, and 60 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 3: they're going to be pretty cautious about. 61 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 2: That, and is the primary concern that Iran would retaliate 62 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,959 Speaker 2: in kind or that it would just kind of exacerbate 63 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 2: what we're already seeing with these Iranian proxies and the 64 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 2: activity and operations that they're conducting. Specifically, I guess my 65 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 2: question is what Iran really want to go after the 66 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 2: US directly either. 67 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 3: The assumption ever since October seventh, by you know, from 68 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 3: US officials, has been that Iran too has a lot 69 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 3: to lose. Right they're on the threshold of having a 70 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 3: nuclear weapon. They are benefiting in many ways from being 71 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 3: able to strike at Israel through proxy attacks and also 72 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 3: strike at US forces, but without very much direct risk 73 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 3: to themselves. Now, Critics of the administrations approach have said 74 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 3: that unless the US is willing to put a RAM 75 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 3: and its own assets at risk, then there's the risk 76 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 3: that these attacks will just continue to escalate and won't 77 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 3: be deterred. The administration, on the other hand, has said 78 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 3: that they need to take a cautious approach because there's 79 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 3: a lot at stake here. It's the broader regional economy. 80 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 3: There's the threat of prices increasing as attacks on shipping 81 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 3: increase in the Red Sea, so a lot of different 82 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 3: things to. 83 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 2: Weigh well, And of course that's why it took so 84 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 2: long for the US, together with allies, to actually move 85 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 2: to offensive even against the Hoothies. For a long time, 86 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 2: it was just defense and deterrence in the Red Sea 87 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 2: until those strikes began a number of weeks ago. And 88 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 2: of course, Peter, when we first saw that initial strike 89 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 2: launched the US together with the UK, we've seen I 90 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 2: believe about eight of them now. It was done while 91 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 2: the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin was still at Walter 92 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 2: Reed in the hospital as he was getting treated for 93 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 2: prostate cancer, as we weighed the response. Here, he's back 94 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 2: at the Pentagon today. 95 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 4: Right, he is. 96 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 3: He's meeting with the NATO Secretary General today. He's back 97 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 3: in the saddle at the Pentagon after long delay. 98 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 2: Does that actually impact anything other than optically? Is it 99 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 2: easier to kind of conduct these conversations when the stakes 100 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:10,359 Speaker 2: are so high? 101 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 3: I mean, the Pentagon has strenuously denied that his physical 102 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 3: absence from the building has impacted operations. But I think 103 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 3: it's fair to say that any organization works better when 104 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 3: those in charge are close to what's happening, all. 105 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 2: Right, Peter Martin Bloomberg's Global Defense and Intelligence correspondent. 106 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 5: Thank you so much for joining me, and we want. 107 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 2: To get more analysis on the situation now with Dan Muton, 108 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 2: non Resident Senior Fellow at the Scoucroft Middle East Security 109 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 2: Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs. Thank you 110 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 2: so much, Dan for joining me today. I want to 111 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 2: read you, if I could, a quote from a Bloomberg 112 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 2: opinion piece that was written by Admiral James S. Tavetas, 113 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 2: who wrote, the Pentagon should generate detailed strike plans to 114 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 2: go after Iranian targets themselves. They could include warships operating 115 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 2: in support of Yemen two this another target set could 116 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 2: be Iranian oil and gas platforms in the Arabian goal. 117 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 2: Even more controversially, he writes, the Pentagon could consider strikes 118 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 2: against Iranian military command and control sites. Dan, what is 119 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 2: your assessment of what a proportionate appropriate response would be? 120 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 2: Here are any of those options on the table in 121 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 2: your mind? 122 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 6: Hi, Kayleian, good to join you today. I think what 123 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 6: Admiral Stepriitez portrayed in his opinion piece is absolutely part 124 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 6: of the menu of options that the Department of Defense 125 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,799 Speaker 6: as a matter of course, would generate for the president 126 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 6: in terms of adhering to the President's remarks yesterday that 127 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,719 Speaker 6: we're going to respond appropriately at a time and place 128 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,279 Speaker 6: of our choosing. I do think though it's important to 129 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 6: note some of the other pieces that I think Peter 130 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 6: Martin also highlighted, which is this attack did not originate 131 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:59,159 Speaker 6: from Iran. It was an Iranian proxy group versus Iranian 132 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 6: forces directly. Now, obviously there's there's culpability that Iran needs 133 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 6: to be held accountable for, but in terms of the 134 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 6: people and organization and kind of commands that were given 135 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 6: to launch this attack, it's important to dig into that 136 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 6: in terms of how we evaluate a proportional response. And 137 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 6: when I say that, I would go back a little 138 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 6: ways to highlight why, you know, the Department of Defense, 139 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 6: at the President's direction, surged forces to the region after 140 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 6: October seventh of last year, which was to prevent escalation 141 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 6: into a regional conflict after the October seventh Hamas attack 142 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 6: against Israel. I think, in terms of the president's choices, 143 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 6: he's going to be given this menu, and it's going 144 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 6: to involve either striking back against elements at Hezbollah in Syria, 145 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 6: perhaps elements in Iraq, and obviously there's going to be 146 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 6: Iranian targets, but he's going to have to win the 147 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 6: likelihood of escalation. And I'm happy to dig into that 148 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 6: a little bit more. 149 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 2: If you'd like, Well, yeah, absolutely, I mean, how likely 150 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 2: do you think it is that whatever measures the US 151 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 2: takes here would be significantly more escalatory than the measures 152 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 2: of the US already has taken the multiple strikes we 153 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 2: have seen against Toothy targets in Yemen. Does the calculation 154 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 2: change entirely or at least the stakes move consequentially higher 155 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 2: if there were to be a strike directly on Iranian territory, 156 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 2: which we haven't seen for decades, Haley. 157 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 6: I do think that if we were to strike inside 158 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 6: of Iran that would excuse me, Kaylee, I do think 159 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 6: if we were to strike inside Iran that would increase 160 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,839 Speaker 6: the likelihood of regional escalation. Since this attack did not 161 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,959 Speaker 6: originate from Iran, and right now we don't know if 162 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 6: there were Iranian, literal Iranian fingerprints on these one way 163 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:57,439 Speaker 6: attack UABS unman aied vehicles. It's hard to draw a 164 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 6: direct line. That being said, if we move a little 165 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:04,319 Speaker 6: bit to the left and look at the organization responsible 166 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 6: for launching the attack. There are a whole multitude of 167 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 6: Shea militia groups and both Syria and Rock that have 168 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 6: been involved in attacking US forces. I note that there's 169 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 6: been close to one hundred and sixty attacks against US 170 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 6: forces in Iraq and Syria following October seventh, and so 171 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 6: all of those attacks were meant to kill US forces. 172 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,079 Speaker 6: There was an increasing likelihood over time that sooner or 173 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 6: later something was going to, unfortunately and quite tragically, get 174 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 6: through US defenses, and when they did on Saturday, it 175 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 6: became inevitable for US to respond. I do think, in 176 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 6: terms of the choices available, what we're likely to see 177 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 6: is a much more comprehensive set of strikes against these 178 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 6: SA militia groups that are direct responsible for the attacks. 179 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 2: Well, and Dan, your point is well taken that this 180 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 2: isn't necessarily a RON itself that is responsible here. And 181 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 2: of course we've heard from Iran in the aftermath of 182 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 2: these attacks that the groups IT backs operate independently from 183 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:17,080 Speaker 2: the direction of the Islamic Republic. They say, any allegations 184 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 2: that they were directly involved are baseless. Nonetheless, though, if 185 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 2: it's providing money and weapons to these groups Iran at 186 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 2: the end of the day, if you go down, the 187 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,320 Speaker 2: line of fault is in that line, right. So I 188 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 2: just wonder how the Iran's backing of these groups can 189 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 2: realistically be stopped if the US is not willing to 190 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 2: go after to Ron directly. 191 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 6: And I think that's a very very valid point, Kayleie. 192 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 6: I think where we are, where we're going to be 193 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 6: right now is going back or the last probably till 194 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 6: late October up through the last few weeks, we've heard 195 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 6: statements from Secretary to Blinken you An, Ambassador Linda Thomas 196 00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 6: Greenfield in others Department of Defense, White House, and so forth, 197 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 6: messaging directly to Iranian decision makers that there will be repercussions. 198 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 6: I think at this point we should expect, you know, 199 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 6: any Iranian players in this attack scenario that are operating 200 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 6: in Syria and Iraq that are directly aiding and abetting 201 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 6: these attacks, I would expect them to be on the 202 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 6: table in terms of what the United States is willing 203 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:35,079 Speaker 6: to target. I think thus far, it's going to be difficult, 204 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:38,439 Speaker 6: and this goes back to the desire by the US 205 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 6: administration to not escalate. It'll be difficult to choose to 206 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 6: strike directly into Iran. Now, to Admiral Stavritez's point, there's 207 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 6: Iranian you know, warships if you will, or are Iranian 208 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 6: ships affiliated with Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that are operating 209 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 6: outside of our territorial waters that in some instances could 210 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 6: be very well aiding and a betting these attacks. And 211 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:10,119 Speaker 6: so that can very well be on the menu of options. 212 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 6: And I think the Iranian government needs to be made 213 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 6: aware of the repercussions of this continued targeting or aiding 214 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 6: and a betting, this continued targeting of. 215 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 2: US forces, So Dan obviously while we await news on 216 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 2: potential what the potential response from. 217 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 5: The US could look like. 218 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 2: Of course, all of this is happening against the backdrop 219 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 2: of the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, and we 220 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 2: know that also over the weekend there was a summit 221 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 2: in Paris with spy chiefs and other officials from the US, 222 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 2: Egypt Cutter, and Israel trying to reach some kind of 223 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 2: ceasefire agreement in exchange for the rest of the hostages 224 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 2: that are still being held in Gaza. And a headline 225 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 2: actually just crossed the Bloomberg terminal from the Katari Prime 226 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 2: Minister saying that hostage talks are in a better place 227 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 2: than a few weeks ago. How hopeful are you that 228 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 2: a deal like this could actually come to fruition and 229 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 2: how could that change what we're seeing across the Middle East, 230 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 2: Because theoretically, if there was a ceasefire, the Houthies wouldn't 231 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 2: have as much reason to attack vessels in the Red Sea. 232 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 3: Right. 233 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 6: Indeed, so I completely agree with kind of the connection 234 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 6: you just drew, Kayley, to these attacks regional escalation from 235 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 6: October seventh. I'm quite hopeful that what was going on 236 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 6: in Paris this past weekend, as well as the work 237 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 6: that preceded this, and this was White House Coordinator Brett 238 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 6: McGirr going to going to Cairo, going to Doha, Qatar, 239 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:32,199 Speaker 6: This was in the lead up to Director Cia Bill 240 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 6: Burns traveling to Europe the other day. I'm quite hopeful 241 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 6: that this could in fact be an opportunity for both 242 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 6: sides to de escalate. This is principally right now focused 243 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 6: on helping the government of Israel find it a way 244 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:55,559 Speaker 6: out of the scenario that unfortunately it fell into following 245 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:58,839 Speaker 6: as a result of the October seventh attacks. But this 246 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 6: is the best chance at the moment for us to 247 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 6: find a de escalatory path to help the government of 248 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 6: Israel find its way out and reduce civilian suffering in 249 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 6: the Gaza Strip. 250 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 2: And just finally, we have less than a minute left 251 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 2: in but we know that there's been some discussion as 252 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 2: to whether this should be, say, a two month ceasefire 253 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 2: or a permanent seasfire. Can Israel really agree to a 254 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 2: permanent ceasefire. 255 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 5: At this point? 256 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 6: That's going to depend on the political calculus, and it's impossible, 257 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 6: I think for me to answer that, Kyle. It's going 258 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 6: to be the political calculus inside of Israel. Of I 259 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 6: personally do not think it's possible to destroy the foundations 260 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 6: of a terror organization. Israel can kill a lot of 261 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 6: members of Helmas, Yeah, but the cause of all this, 262 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 6: that's going to be quite difficult, and it's going to 263 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 6: be up to the Israeli government to determine when they've 264 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 6: met that. 265 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 2: All right, Danmuton of The Atlantic, thank you so much 266 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 2: for joining me. Really appreciate your time. 267 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken 268 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enroud 269 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 1: Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 270 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 271 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 272 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 2: I'm Kaylee Liones in Washington, where we have a border 273 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 2: deal on the mind. And to put it in the 274 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 2: words of the former President Donald Trump, a bad border 275 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 2: deal is far worse than no border deal. That's what 276 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 2: he said on True Social over the weekend. As we 277 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 2: await the release of the actual text of this deal 278 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 2: that Senate negotiators have been working on with the White 279 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 2: House for some time now, and while we don't know 280 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 2: for sure what's in it, we do know there already 281 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 2: has been some pushback against it, specifically in the House 282 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 2: of Representatives, even coming from the speaker himself, Mike Johnson. 283 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 2: So is this effort really going anywhere? Joining me now 284 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 2: to weigh in is the Republican Congressman from North Carolina, 285 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 2: Greg Murphy, who was here with me in our Washington, 286 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 2: d C. 287 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 5: Studio. Congressman, thank you. 288 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 7: So much, nice to see you, kill for coming in. 289 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 2: It's great to see you as well. What needs to 290 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 2: be in this deal for it to get your vote? 291 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 5: Will you even have a chance. 292 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 8: We have to go back to the stay in Mexico policy. 293 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 8: I mean, I think that was the star wart of 294 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 8: where all this began. We had Central American countries that 295 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 8: had bought into this, that they folks that seek asylum 296 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 8: in the country of entry rather than transgressing across all 297 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 8: of Central America. You know, I've worked in some really 298 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 8: desperate places in the world as a surgeon, so I 299 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 8: understand people's desire to try to find something better. That said, 300 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 8: we are a nation of laws. Unlike the last two years, 301 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 8: our border has become wallless. We don't have operational control 302 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 8: of our southern border. Drug cartels do. So we have 303 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 8: to keep those who wanted this country that when we 304 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 8: keep in Mexico, we have to get rid of the 305 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 8: control of the border by drug cartels. We have to 306 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 8: ensure safety to our own border and really adjudicate the 307 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 8: processes a lot quickly. We have to make sure that 308 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 8: those who do have true asylum desires that they get 309 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 8: adjudicated much more quickly, and that we have to beef 310 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 8: up security. You know, we've had what eight plus million 311 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 8: individuals come in the country over the last two years. 312 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:19,400 Speaker 8: We have a close to I think it was one 313 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 8: point seven million individuals come. We don't know who they are, 314 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,239 Speaker 8: where they're from, where they're going, why they're here, and 315 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,679 Speaker 8: then record numbered of individuals who were caught on the 316 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 8: terrorist watch list. We don't even know who the ones 317 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 8: who've gotten away because they're going to seek other methods 318 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 8: to get in any way. So this is not only 319 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 8: a humanitarian crisis. It's one that the president and his 320 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 8: administration have broken our own laws. It's also one of 321 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 8: national security even more importantly, so this this has to 322 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 8: be done. It almost takes primal immediacy above almost anything else. 323 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 8: And you get into the debate with Ukraine, it almost 324 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 8: has to take a president's over that, because we have 325 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 8: to protect our own border really before we worry about 326 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:05,160 Speaker 8: other countries. 327 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,880 Speaker 2: Well, the president is at the table now, he's been 328 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 2: involved in these negotiations. He put out a statement lead 329 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 2: Friday that said what the negotiators are working on would 330 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 2: give him the authority to shut down the border if 331 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 2: it was becoming overwhelming. He says he would use that 332 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,159 Speaker 2: authority on day one after signing this bill. Do you 333 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 2: take him at his word. 334 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 7: On that he had the authority right now? He doesn't 335 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 7: need authority. 336 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 8: He could have the authority to stay in Mexico policy boom. 337 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 8: He had this authority when he was sworn in, and 338 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 8: so he basically invited our countries to be invaded, because 339 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 8: that's nonsense from President Biden. 340 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 7: He has the authority right now to do this. 341 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 2: So when it comes to the feate of this package 342 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 2: in the House, do you think you will even have 343 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 2: a chance to vote on it up or down. 344 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:46,719 Speaker 8: I have to see what it really entails, because I 345 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 8: haven't seen the text yet. As they pointed out, we 346 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 8: want something. Yeah, honestly, Joe Biden has the tools right 347 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 8: now to close the border or close it appreciably. 348 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 2: Well, you haven't seen the text. The Speaker of the 349 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 2: House hasn't seen the text either, and already, just based 350 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 2: on the rumors that were floating around, he said it's 351 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 2: dead on arrival. And we know that he has a 352 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 2: close relationship with the former president. The former president has 353 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 2: thoughts on this. How does Donald Trump factor into this calculus? 354 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 8: Well, I think, honestly, we have to see what's going on, 355 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 8: because you know, it's presumed nominee that Donald Trump is 356 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 8: going to be the Republican nominee. This is going to 357 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 8: be a factor, because this is one of the biggest 358 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 8: things that all Americans now care about, not just not 359 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 8: just in Texas or Arizona, but they care about it 360 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 8: in New York City and other places. About the absolute 361 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 8: explosion of this humanitarian ciasis. And Kelly, to be very 362 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,919 Speaker 8: honest with you, this is one caused by certain releasings 363 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 8: of policy by the Biden administration. We should not be 364 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 8: where we were. We weren't this way two and a 365 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 8: half years ago. We have to get back to some 366 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 8: sensible things about immigration within this country. 367 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: Well, when you talk about how immigration is an issue 368 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 2: not just at the border, but in states really all 369 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 2: across the country, it's been described to me as every 370 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 2: state now is a border state because of the way 371 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,120 Speaker 2: this has spread around own What justification would there be 372 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 2: to not bring it to the floor, to not give 373 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,120 Speaker 2: members like you even a chance to cast their votes 374 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 2: on an issue that is so important to voters. 375 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 8: Well, I don't disagree with that thought, but I think 376 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 8: it's also up to the Speaker that he'd be involved 377 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 8: in this process. It's not just one by the Senate 378 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 8: and do with the with the White House. And remember 379 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 8: there is another chamber. We are the ones who are 380 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 8: considered in the in the in the House, to. 381 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 7: Be quote, closest to the people. 382 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 8: This is a people issue, and I think it needs 383 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 8: to be not you know, debated or guaranteed and silent. 384 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 8: It needs to be festered. Especially we have a new 385 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 8: Speaker of the House. He needs to be intimately involved 386 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 8: in these negotiations. 387 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's questions as to how the Speaker is 388 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,920 Speaker 2: not just going to deal with potentially bringing this issue 389 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 2: to the floor, but also a vote on a tax agreement. 390 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,439 Speaker 2: I know, sir, that you sit on the Ways and 391 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 2: Means Committee. Obviously this is bipartisan, it's bi cameral. Would 392 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:51,960 Speaker 2: it have your support if you had a chance to 393 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 2: vote on it this week or next? 394 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 8: Well, we had a forty to three vote in the committee. 395 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 8: I voted for it in committee. Is it perfect? There 396 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:05,399 Speaker 8: are some things that I may have recommended differently. I 397 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 8: think if we bring it to the floor, I think 398 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,439 Speaker 8: it would pass just on a suspension vote. We're going 399 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 8: to have some folks having problems because it didn't have 400 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 8: the salt issues with it. 401 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 7: Some of the others who vote. 402 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 8: Against everything seemingly this Congress are going to vote against it. 403 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 8: But I think it may have a good chance of 404 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 8: passing as a suspension. We need to do something in 405 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 8: the tax realm because of expiring tax revisions from TCGA 406 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 8: that are really going to be helping American business, especially 407 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,080 Speaker 8: small businesses. I'll give you an example with the quote 408 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 8: Inflation Reduction Act. This really absolutely destroyed pharmaceutical industries from 409 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 8: being able to take new drugs and bring new indications 410 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 8: for drugs along the line. 411 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 7: You know, it is thought. 412 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 8: CBO said maybe one drug would be taken out because 413 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 8: of all this price shifting. It's actually been more than 414 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 8: one hundred. And these are days of new cures. You know, 415 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 8: in medicine I practice now for thirty five years. It's 416 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 8: been an explosion in the last five or ten years 417 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 8: of new drugs and new therapies, and so many of 418 00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:02,679 Speaker 8: the now now have come to a screeching halt because 419 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,919 Speaker 8: of the rules within the Inflation and Reduction Act. But 420 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 8: if we're able to get these companies started back up again, 421 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 8: we're going to go back to making land breaking and 422 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:16,360 Speaker 8: really world breaking cures for many different things, cancers and 423 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 8: other disorders. 424 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 2: Well, so obviously there's a lot in this agreement. As 425 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 2: you point out, there's a lot that's not in it either, 426 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 2: maybe not getting this salt action that some would like. 427 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 2: Others are taking issue with the expansion of the child 428 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 2: tax credit. 429 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:29,400 Speaker 5: Do you think any of. 430 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 2: These issues are enough that this bill stands a real 431 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 2: chance of not getting through the House because the suspension 432 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,679 Speaker 2: of the rules as a decision, the Speaker will have 433 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 2: to make sure sure. 434 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 8: And that's I think that's a fair criticism of this. 435 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 8: You know, we live in a divided Congress with a 436 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 8: one seat majority. We don't own the Senate, we don't 437 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 8: own the White House, and if we want to get 438 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,360 Speaker 8: a tax package out, there has to be negotiation and compromised. 439 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 8: Do I think twenty five hundred should be the bottom part? 440 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,400 Speaker 8: Absolutely not, I mean absolutely not. Should I think that 441 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 8: we have persons one year income being able to count 442 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 8: for the next. No, But then again, you know this 443 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 8: is all negotiated. Do I think four hundred thousand dollars really? 444 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 8: I think we actually probably should lower that. I don't 445 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,679 Speaker 8: see a couple making four hundred thousand dollars needs assistance. 446 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 7: With their kids. 447 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 8: But again, this is negotiation, and you know this is 448 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,120 Speaker 8: one of the I've only been in politics, I guess 449 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 8: now seven years now in the effort, we can't make 450 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 8: everything perfect. It's not going to be perfect because we 451 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 8: don't have supermajorities in either chamber, we don't have the 452 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 8: White House. We have to make compromises, and so yeah, 453 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,120 Speaker 8: sometimes there are some things in there you don't want. 454 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:36,639 Speaker 8: But if you look at the bigger picture, I think 455 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 8: there's a lot more positives than negatives. 456 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,439 Speaker 2: And of course, in addition to sitting on ways and 457 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,160 Speaker 2: means where you are very hands on with this issue, 458 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 2: you also a remember of the Veteran Affairs Committee, so 459 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 2: I know you pay close attention to matters regarding the 460 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 2: US military. And of course we had news over the 461 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 2: weekend three US troops killed in Jordan and a drone 462 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:59,679 Speaker 2: strike by an Iranian backed militant group. The US has 463 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 2: value to respond. What do you think that response should 464 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:03,919 Speaker 2: look like? 465 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 8: You know, Kaylee, I come from a very strong military district. 466 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 8: We have Camp Ler, June, Cherry Point, other military bases. 467 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 8: One out of ten of my constituents are veterans, and 468 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 8: in dealing with Iran and dealing with these axes really 469 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 8: truly of evil. As Reagan said, the only thing they 470 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,880 Speaker 8: know is power. The only thing they know is strength. 471 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 8: And this is what we have to show, you know. 472 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 8: Of course Iran has said they didn't have to do 473 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 8: anything with this. No one can trust the Ukrainians, no 474 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 8: one at all. I don't trust them at all. We 475 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 8: have to show them power. I do believe a lot 476 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,399 Speaker 8: of the strength we lost in the way we left 477 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 8: Afghanistan in the Middle East, and so it's time for 478 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 8: Biden to step up. You know, we have to go 479 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 8: after these folks. We have to go with the origin 480 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,159 Speaker 8: of them. We have to take out their leaders, we 481 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,919 Speaker 8: have to take out their ability to kill Americans. 482 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 2: There have been some Senators John Corny and Lindsay Graham, 483 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,439 Speaker 2: for example, who have said strike Iran directly on its 484 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,360 Speaker 2: own territory. Do you think that would be too far? 485 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,400 Speaker 8: You know, just on first thought, I think that may 486 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 8: be a little bit. We're not ready for that yet 487 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 8: because here we are trying to keep Israel alive. There's 488 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 8: a China's threat with this in the southeast, with Taiwan. 489 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 8: Our utter disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, in my opinion, led 490 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 8: to the Ukrainian conflict. I think that that's going to 491 00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 8: be difficult. Sadly enough, you know, during the Trump administration, 492 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 8: the enrichment of uranium in Iran was around four percent. 493 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,119 Speaker 8: We know Iran has now gotten it up to at 494 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 8: least sixty percent. Some reports have been eighty percent. Once 495 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 8: they get ninety percent. 496 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 5: He left that nuclear deal with that. 497 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, but the thing is that gave them all of 498 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 7: the cards. 499 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 8: It gave him all the cards. And so now Iran 500 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,439 Speaker 8: may very well have a nuclear bomb. And so you know, 501 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,639 Speaker 8: I understand that sentiment, but I think a lot of 502 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 8: thought needs to go into before that happens. 503 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,360 Speaker 2: All right, well, we appreciate you giving us your thoughts today. Congressman, 504 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 2: very good to see you. Thank you for coming and 505 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 2: joining us in our Washington, d C. 506 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:53,879 Speaker 4: Studio. 507 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 2: That is Republican Congressman from North Carolina, Greg Murphy. Now 508 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 2: we want to go back to our signature loical panel. 509 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno are with me. Genie, just 510 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 2: to begin with you on this idea of potential retaliation 511 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 2: here coming from the Biden administration. How difficult politically, let 512 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 2: alone militarily is this to make. 513 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:17,840 Speaker 5: It's going to be. 514 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 9: Very difficult, and I think you just heard it from 515 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 9: the representatives thoughtful reply to your question, and you know 516 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,160 Speaker 9: the differences he may have from some other Republicans and 517 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:31,600 Speaker 9: some other Democrats on where the United States should strike 518 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 9: and how. And you know, because we know that there 519 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 9: will be a retaliation, We know there will be a strike, 520 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:41,480 Speaker 9: and the question now is where and against who and how? 521 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 9: And there's so much difference of opinion on that. So 522 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:46,879 Speaker 9: it is, you know, going to be threading an evil 523 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 9: and a needle. Rather for the Biden administration to try 524 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 9: to do this in a way that doesn't escalate tensions. 525 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 9: Keeping in mind, we have heard that this strike back 526 00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,719 Speaker 9: is welcome, and so this is something they also have 527 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,720 Speaker 9: to keep in mind. And politically they are going to 528 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,960 Speaker 9: be walking a very fine line and trying to make 529 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 9: this happen. 530 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,159 Speaker 2: Well and Rick, of course they're doing so not just 531 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 2: in any year, but in an election year. How does 532 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 2: this kind of geopolitical tension factor into electoral politics at 533 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:18,680 Speaker 2: home for an incumbent president. 534 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,760 Speaker 10: Yeah, Look, it's one of the fundamental things that voters 535 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:24,720 Speaker 10: look at, is, you know, are you equipped to be 536 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 10: commander in chief? Obviously both these candids, Donald Trump and 537 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 10: Joe Biden have direct experience in this and can evaluate that. 538 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 10: But some of Biden's biggest hurdles. Biggest problems in his 539 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 10: administration have been related to the military. Afghanistan was the 540 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 10: beginning of the decline of his popularity around the country, 541 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 10: and some blame that as being a really proxy for competency. 542 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:47,480 Speaker 4: And so this is. 543 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,880 Speaker 10: Really important to Joe Biden that he get this right. 544 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 10: He's given full support against a lot of headwinds to Israel, 545 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 10: and a lot of voters have rewarded him with some 546 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,679 Speaker 10: very positive numbers in that regard, but the blowback is 547 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:05,400 Speaker 10: still coming. When this occurred, but let's be straight, this 548 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 10: is a retaliation against Us for the proper killing of 549 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 10: their head of the Kudz forces, Solamani, and two other 550 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:21,880 Speaker 10: senior operatives that were killed in Lebanon recently. I mean, 551 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 10: we are already in a shooting war with Iran and 552 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 10: their proxies, and I can't imagine a scenario where we 553 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,679 Speaker 10: don't get more escalation as a result of this latest attack. 554 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 2: Well, and of course the background to this is the 555 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 2: ongoing war between Israel and Hamas and Genie. There was 556 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 2: a great piece in the New York Times over the 557 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 2: weekend about black pastors, more than a thousand of them 558 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 2: that represent hundreds of thousands of congregants nationwide issuing a 559 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 2: demand to the Biden administration for a ceasefire in Gaza, 560 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 2: especially knowing how important that demographic is to the president 561 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 2: as he seeks re election. Should we expect that he 562 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 2: is going to put more pressure on Israel specifically to 563 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 2: end these hostilities. 564 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 9: Yeah, and I think they are already, And I'm so 565 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 9: glad you raised the pastors. They have joined with the 566 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 9: pro Palestinian groups primarily headquartered in Michigan, a critical electoral 567 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 9: state for both the president and the former president to win. 568 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:31,040 Speaker 9: And of course you see Burns already trying to negotiate 569 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 9: at least a ceased fire. So I do think that 570 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 9: is something the president has been doing, will continue to do. 571 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:41,000 Speaker 9: And this pressure is important because this is a constituency. 572 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 9: We saw in South Carolina over the weekend that the 573 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 9: president does need to come out and support him. And 574 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 9: you hear the pastor is drawing a very clear red line, 575 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 9: we cannot support you if you don't move forward on 576 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 9: a cease fire and negotiate a settlement or push Israel 577 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 9: to negotiate a settlement in the Gods Strip. So a 578 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 9: lot of pressure on the administration to do that at 579 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 9: this point. 580 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 2: All right, Genie Shanzeno and Rick Davis, our signature political panel, 581 00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,719 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining me. Of course, there 582 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 2: are those ceasefire negotiations that are happening. They happened over 583 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 2: the weekend in Paris, and those conversations are continuing, the 584 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,120 Speaker 2: Katari Prime Minister saying in the last hour that they're 585 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 2: in a better place than they were a few weeks ago. 586 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,720 Speaker 2: Stick with me on Balance of Power on Bloomberg Television 587 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 2: and Radio. 588 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg. 589 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 590 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on APO car Play 591 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 1: and then proudet with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 592 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 593 00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 594 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 2: He tracked the money on this show as well as 595 00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 2: it relates to politics, including as it relates to former 596 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 2: President Donald Trump, because talk about money. 597 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 5: We all know. On Friday he was. 598 00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 2: Ordered to pay eighty three million billion dollars to Egene 599 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 2: Carrol in damages to faming her, and then a separate 600 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 2: civil fraud trial in New York in which we could 601 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,000 Speaker 2: get a verdict. This week he could be on the 602 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 2: Hook to pay three hundred and seventy million dollars in 603 00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 2: what prosecutors say was a legal profit reaped by his 604 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 2: Trump organization by lying to banks about his wealth to 605 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 2: get better terms on loan. So when you add all 606 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,880 Speaker 2: that together, three hundred and seventy million plus eighty three million, 607 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,680 Speaker 2: we're talking more than four hundred and fifty million dollars 608 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,200 Speaker 2: that he could be forced to pay. Maybe that's not 609 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 2: that much for a billionaire, except that he's a billionaire 610 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 2: on paper, not necessarily when it comes to liquid assets. 611 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 2: According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Indexed, he has about six 612 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 2: hundred million dollars in cash, so more than four hundred 613 00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 2: and fifty million, and that would be a big chunk 614 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 2: of it. Joining me next here on Balance of Power 615 00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,360 Speaker 2: on both Bloomberg Television and radio to talk about this, 616 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 2: I'm pleased to. 617 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,600 Speaker 5: Say, is David Ehrenberg. 618 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 2: He is the attorney state attorney for Palm Beach County 619 00:31:58,200 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 2: down in Florida. 620 00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 5: Dave, great to say you here in our Washington studio. 621 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 2: If we just begin with the Egen Carroll case, this 622 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,120 Speaker 2: eighty three million dollars he was ordered to pay. He 623 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 2: says he will appeal it. How long should we expect 624 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 2: this process to take and is it likely that that 625 00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 2: dollar amount is going to move significantly lower? 626 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,160 Speaker 11: Good to be with you, Kayley. First, I think it's 627 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 11: going to take a while. It could take several months 628 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 11: to get through the appeals. But as far as whether the. 629 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,200 Speaker 4: Verdict is going to be dropped, I doubt it. 630 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 11: And that's because the big whammy here, the punitive damages 631 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 11: were only about three and a half times. 632 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 4: A compensatory damages. 633 00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 11: So a lot of times appelle courts will say it's 634 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,040 Speaker 11: way out of whack, let's reduce to punitives, but that's 635 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 11: not the case here. Plus, if they want to dispute 636 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,080 Speaker 11: the evidence that was admitted into trial, well tough luck 637 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 11: because Trump's overmatched attorney and Lena Habah did not object 638 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 11: to a lot of the evidence, and so you wave 639 00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,240 Speaker 11: your right to appeal it. So I think this verdict 640 00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 11: will stand. Just a question of when the money will 641 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 11: flow to Eagen Carroll. 642 00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,480 Speaker 2: Well, and of course that's not the only money we 643 00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 2: have to consider here. As I mentioned, there also is 644 00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,680 Speaker 2: potentially going to be a verdict coming down this week 645 00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,440 Speaker 2: for his other civil trial in New York, the fraud trial. 646 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 2: As it relates to the Trump organization. How do you 647 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 2: how likely do you think it is that he'll actually 648 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,440 Speaker 2: be on the hook for more than three hundred million 649 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:11,680 Speaker 2: dollars in that case. 650 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 4: I think the sweet spot is probably around three hundred million. 651 00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:14,160 Speaker 6: Now. 652 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 11: Originally the Attorney General of New York was seeking up 653 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 11: to two hundred and fifty million, and then she expanded 654 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,680 Speaker 11: it to three hundred and seventy million. So I think 655 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 11: it's going to be around the amount between two fifty 656 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 11: and three seventy And I think it's because the evidence 657 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 11: has been really strong that Trump did inflate the value 658 00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:31,680 Speaker 11: of his assets. 659 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,080 Speaker 4: Plus he was allowed. 660 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 11: By the judge Judging Goron to issue broadsides against the court. 661 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,720 Speaker 11: He even was allowed to give his own partial closing 662 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 11: argument without having to be subject or cross examination for it. 663 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,040 Speaker 11: And I think the reason why Judge and Gron did 664 00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 11: that is because he was set in the stage for 665 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,520 Speaker 11: a massive verdict in favor of the Attorney General and 666 00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 11: wanted to protect himself on appeal. 667 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:55,000 Speaker 4: So that's why I think Trump got his day in court. 668 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 11: He got to lash out of the judge, but in 669 00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 11: the end, he's going to pay for it well. 670 00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 2: And he may have many days in court still ahead, 671 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,360 Speaker 2: not just when it comes to potentially appeals in these cases, 672 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:07,280 Speaker 2: but he still is awaiting trial in criminal cases, four 673 00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,800 Speaker 2: of them, it's been indicted on ninety one different fellow 674 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:14,440 Speaker 2: need charges across these for indictments. So just not even 675 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,880 Speaker 2: thinking about monetary damages he has to pay, but just 676 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,799 Speaker 2: legal fees to fight all of these different battles. I mean, 677 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,840 Speaker 2: how much do you think realistically he's racked. 678 00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,760 Speaker 11: Up here millions and millions, but he's able to convince 679 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 11: gullible supporters to pay. 680 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,279 Speaker 4: For some of his fees. Remember, he had this huge 681 00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,279 Speaker 4: account to pay for the stop. 682 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,319 Speaker 11: The steal, to fight the election fraud, but then he 683 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 11: diverted a lot of that away. And I think you'll 684 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:39,920 Speaker 11: see the same thing here as people who donate to 685 00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 11: his packs, some of that money or most of it 686 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,759 Speaker 11: will go to his attorney's fees, and it will hit 687 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,720 Speaker 11: him in the end because he'll have to pay himself 688 00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 11: the money that goes to Egan Carroll, He'll have to 689 00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:53,200 Speaker 11: pay himself the money that goes to the State of 690 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 11: New York in the civil fraud case. But as far 691 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,080 Speaker 11: as the expenses for his attorneys, as long as he's 692 00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 11: got these rabbit supporters who will pay the left last 693 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,680 Speaker 11: fifty bucks from their Social Security disabilities checked to a billionaire, 694 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:05,640 Speaker 11: he'll be able to pay his lawyers. 695 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,640 Speaker 2: Well. Maybe one of the ways it helps to be 696 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,399 Speaker 2: actively campaigning for president of the United States is you're 697 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,279 Speaker 2: fighting legal battles. But of course there's also difficulty with 698 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,720 Speaker 2: fighting these legal battles while you're trying to campaign, especially 699 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,320 Speaker 2: if you're tied up in a courtroom during the primary 700 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,480 Speaker 2: process or onto the convention in the general election as well. 701 00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,440 Speaker 5: But a lot of that will come down to the timeline. 702 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 2: Realistically, we're still awaiting a decision on his argument that 703 00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,360 Speaker 2: he should have immunity as a former president from prosecution 704 00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,000 Speaker 2: in the case here in Washington where Jack Smith has 705 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 2: brought charges against him related to efforts to overturn the 706 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 2: twenty twenty election. Jack Smith would like that to go 707 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,040 Speaker 2: to trial on March fourth, but it can't until we 708 00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 2: have a conclusion to the immunity dispute while we wait 709 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 2: for that to come down from the appeals court here 710 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:47,040 Speaker 2: in DC. 711 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 5: Why do you think this is taking so long? 712 00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,160 Speaker 11: You know, I thought this would be decided already. It's 713 00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:54,279 Speaker 11: a kind of an obvious question. No, a president cannot 714 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,759 Speaker 11: send hitmen to go kill their political opponents. I mean, 715 00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,760 Speaker 11: come on, right, But this court I think is taking 716 00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:05,240 Speaker 11: on a bigger issue, the extent of presidential immunity beyond 717 00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:09,040 Speaker 11: this case, perhaps does it apply to the outer layers 718 00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,080 Speaker 11: of your power, your decision making, because right now the 719 00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 11: courts have said you've got civil immunity, but they haven't 720 00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:18,080 Speaker 11: really weighed in on the extent of criminal immunity. And 721 00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,560 Speaker 11: that's where I think the court is working of decisions. 722 00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,000 Speaker 11: This could tell me that you could have a concurring 723 00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,960 Speaker 11: opinion perhaps by the lead judge, Judge Henderson, who was 724 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,400 Speaker 11: appointed by George H. W. 725 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:29,480 Speaker 4: Bush. He may want to weigh in on this. 726 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 11: So that's why I'm thinking that this thing, it's a 727 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:36,160 Speaker 11: little troublesome because it's going to delay the trial in Washington, 728 00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:39,560 Speaker 11: DC beyond that March fourth date. But the more complicated 729 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,719 Speaker 11: the decision will be, the more likely the Supreme Court 730 00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,240 Speaker 11: steps in and that will lead to further delays. 731 00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:46,719 Speaker 2: So you think it makes it more likely if this 732 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 2: is a broader reaching ruling that the Supreme Court takes 733 00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,479 Speaker 2: it up then versus it's very narrow. 734 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,600 Speaker 11: Yeah, I think they should just take the narrow question 735 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,360 Speaker 11: because the justice will be delayed and denied. 736 00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 7: I think. 737 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,760 Speaker 11: I think if this thing is pushed past the twenty 738 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,360 Speaker 11: twenty four election, it is Trump's best legal defense to 739 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,480 Speaker 11: delay this matter and then become president again and then call. 740 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:09,759 Speaker 4: Off the dogs, drop it all. 741 00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,359 Speaker 11: So it's really imperative for the courts to weigh in 742 00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 11: and do it fast, because right now the court is 743 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:16,680 Speaker 11: supposed to have a trial march forward. 744 00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:18,879 Speaker 4: That's not going to happen. But the longer you wait, the. 745 00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,040 Speaker 11: Worse it is for the cause of justice to prove 746 00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:22,160 Speaker 11: that no one is above the law. 747 00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:24,439 Speaker 2: Well, and you talk about how if this happens after 748 00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,279 Speaker 2: the election, if he ultimately is elected, he theoretically could 749 00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:30,080 Speaker 2: pardon himself. That's not true of state cases though, like 750 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,160 Speaker 2: in Georgia. But the difficulty there maybe the question of 751 00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:35,799 Speaker 2: the district attorney who brought the charges against him and 752 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:37,960 Speaker 2: all of those other defendants. Fannie willis because of these 753 00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,520 Speaker 2: allegations that essentially she has a romantic relationship with someone 754 00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,440 Speaker 2: employed to work on the case who has made hundreds 755 00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,319 Speaker 2: of thousands of dollars. Dave, what do you make of 756 00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,840 Speaker 2: that and how that case is likely to move forward 757 00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:50,560 Speaker 2: with these questions hanging in the air of what exactly 758 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:51,239 Speaker 2: she's done here. 759 00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:53,400 Speaker 11: Kaylee, I admit it doesn't look good. This is my 760 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,680 Speaker 11: counterpart up there, Fani Willis, it doesn't look good. But 761 00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,359 Speaker 11: the evidence is the evidence, and so this case will 762 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 11: move forward whether or not she has to take the 763 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,200 Speaker 11: lead prosecutor off the case, or whether she's removed. 764 00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:04,840 Speaker 4: From the case herself. 765 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,279 Speaker 11: The facts are still the facts here, and if there 766 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,719 Speaker 11: wasn't enough facts here to get to the jury, the 767 00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:11,359 Speaker 11: judge would have already dismissed the case. 768 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:11,880 Speaker 4: He hasn't. 769 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:15,720 Speaker 11: We've already seen multiple defendants cut plea deals. That's because 770 00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:20,320 Speaker 11: they've got a decent case here. But admittedly there looks 771 00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:22,960 Speaker 11: to be something wrong there when you have this kind 772 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,360 Speaker 11: of relationship, But in the end, it's not a true 773 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,560 Speaker 11: conflict of interest because it's not like the prosecutor and 774 00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,440 Speaker 11: the lead prosecutor are on separate sides. It's not like 775 00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,239 Speaker 11: one's a prosecutor, one's a defense lawyer. They're both on 776 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:36,640 Speaker 11: the same side here. So I think a lot of 777 00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,160 Speaker 11: this is smoke, but you know, that's enough to get 778 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:40,279 Speaker 11: someone removed from the case. 779 00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,879 Speaker 2: But even being on the same side, does that really matter? 780 00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,960 Speaker 2: If someone is reaping financial benefit from being on this case, 781 00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,799 Speaker 2: being paid to work this case, is there not a 782 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:50,600 Speaker 2: conflict of interest argument. 783 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,279 Speaker 11: To be made there, Well, he's getting paid like all 784 00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:54,520 Speaker 11: the other prosecutors. 785 00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:55,720 Speaker 4: Now there are special prosecutors. 786 00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,319 Speaker 11: He's one of three on the case, so he's not 787 00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:00,560 Speaker 11: the only one. He's been paid the most because he's 788 00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:02,560 Speaker 11: build the most. I think to me, the thing that 789 00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,080 Speaker 11: bothers me the most in all this is not the relationship, 790 00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,200 Speaker 11: but it's the fact that he's been billing, for example, 791 00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:10,920 Speaker 11: twenty four hours in a single day. Well, you know, 792 00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:12,960 Speaker 11: maybe we're under a big law firm in your double billing. 793 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:14,319 Speaker 11: You know, you can get away with that, but when 794 00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,319 Speaker 11: you're working for the government, you really shouldn't be doing that. 795 00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,919 Speaker 11: So it raises some questions in my mind. 796 00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,319 Speaker 2: Well, and of course, because this case has so many 797 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,000 Speaker 2: different defendants, we were expecting that this may be one 798 00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,879 Speaker 2: that takes a really long time to actually actually get 799 00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:28,759 Speaker 2: to trial. To go back to your point on the 800 00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:30,759 Speaker 2: idea that this March fourth trial probably is not going 801 00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:32,440 Speaker 2: to happen on that data could be delayed because of 802 00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,440 Speaker 2: this question of immunity. Obviously, the document's case in your 803 00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,640 Speaker 2: home state of Florida is another one to consider here. 804 00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,080 Speaker 2: Is it likely in your mind that any of these 805 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:44,200 Speaker 2: actually come to a conclusion before the election in November, 806 00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,840 Speaker 2: or even before that the Republican convention in July. 807 00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,880 Speaker 11: Of the four cases, two of the four will definitely 808 00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,400 Speaker 11: not be tried before the election. And that is the 809 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,279 Speaker 11: strongest case, which is the mar Lago Document's case in 810 00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:58,120 Speaker 11: my neck of the woods. That is the best case 811 00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:00,480 Speaker 11: for prosecutors that got him dead to rights. But with 812 00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,000 Speaker 11: Judge Cannon, who's been slow walking this case, they're not 813 00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:05,440 Speaker 11: trying that case before the election. The other one is 814 00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:08,240 Speaker 11: the one we just discussed Fannie Willis in Fulton County 815 00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,760 Speaker 11: because it's a complex reco case with so many co defendants, 816 00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,880 Speaker 11: and now with this controversy that's not happening before the election. 817 00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:16,480 Speaker 4: That leaves the Washington d C. 818 00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,680 Speaker 11: Election interference case, which is a strong case, and that 819 00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 11: case was built for speed by Jack Smith, only four counts, 820 00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:23,920 Speaker 11: no other co defendants. 821 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,320 Speaker 4: But we've got that issue of presidential community. 822 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:30,400 Speaker 11: I still believe it will be decided before too long, 823 00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,200 Speaker 11: and then it's game on in front of Judge Chuck 824 00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,239 Speaker 11: and here in Washington, d C. And the fourth case 825 00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:36,920 Speaker 11: is the one in New York, the one on the 826 00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,799 Speaker 11: Stormy Daniels. Yeah, that one I think could go before 827 00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,080 Speaker 11: the election as well. It's just not the strongest case. 828 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:42,520 Speaker 3: All right. 829 00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:44,839 Speaker 2: Dave Ehrenberg, thank you so much, as always for joining 830 00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:46,640 Speaker 2: us the state attorney for Palm Beach County. 831 00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:47,920 Speaker 5: We appreciate your time. 832 00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,640 Speaker 10: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 833 00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,760 Speaker 1: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apples, 834 00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:56,360 Speaker 1: Spotify 835 00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,080 Speaker 10: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 836 00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:01,920 Speaker 10: us live every week day from Washington, DC at noontime 837 00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,319 Speaker 10: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.