1 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two d 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 1: and nine since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today 3 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: we're bringing you a special episode. Scientists have long believed 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: the source of a pandemic can be traced back to bats. 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: Pioneering research by Australian veterinarian Dr Hume Field more than 6 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: twenty years ago showed why bats are an important host 7 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: of some of humanity's most feared viruses. Bloomberg Senior editor 8 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 1: Jason Gale recently caught up with Hume to hear more 9 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: about how the stars COVIE two virus got from bats 10 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: two people. It's been a year since COVID nineteen emerged 11 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: in the central Chinese city of Wuhan. A lot is 12 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: being learned in that time, but Hume says questions still 13 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 1: remain about the coronavirus origins. What we don't have is 14 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 1: it really is much more information about where it's come from. 15 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: And understandably, all the focus has been on getting the 16 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 1: diagnostics up, getting the human treatment protocols up, but we 17 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: still don't have much information, at least published, about where 18 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: this virus may have come from. Humor is part of 19 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,919 Speaker 1: an international task force set up by the Lancet Medical Journal. 20 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: He says at least two things have frustrated the research efforts, 21 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: international travel restrictions and politics. One of the unfortunate things, 22 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: and part of it is the circumstance of COVID ninety 23 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: disease and the inability to travel and shutdowns and stuff 24 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 1: like that, is that that investigation hasn't been able to 25 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: be a collaborative investigation. It hasn't been able to be 26 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: an international, um multi institutional kind of global investigation. And 27 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: as I said, that's in part because of the constraints 28 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: of the infectivity of the virus, but it's in part 29 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: alls so because of the what I think is a 30 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 1: tragic politicization of the science around this. Humors helped investigate 31 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 1: several international disease outbreaks, including the origins of Stars almost 32 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: twenty years ago. Back then, a team that included Chinese, American, 33 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: and Australian scientists work together to trace the virus to bats, 34 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: and the result was a collaborative and joint body of 35 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: work and knowledge that was shared and was um you know, 36 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: accepted in the scientific community. The problem we have with 37 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: this politicization of science and almost you know, the conspiracy 38 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: fairest thing is that the Chinese scientists might well be 39 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: able to get to the to the bottom of this, 40 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: and may well have a very plausible identification of both 41 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: a natural reservoir and a pathway, a conjute, if you like, 42 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 1: an epidemiological bridge to human spillover the ongoing challenges, how 43 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: do we how do we make any findings that Chinese 44 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: scientists may already have in this area, and any additional 45 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: findings that we make, how do we make those broadly 46 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: accepted to what now seems to be quite a cynical 47 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 1: and politicized audience in some sectors of him says, the 48 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: only way to have the Task Force investigators and their 49 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: results accepted as being legitimate and credible is if they 50 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 1: consider all hypotheses the laws. They need to back up 51 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 1: their theories with strong evidence. So we've got, you know, 52 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 1: something like half a dozen hypotheses that start with some 53 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: version of a bad human transmission, so it might be 54 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: about human director then goes and spread it somewhere else, 55 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: or it might be a bad intermediate and etcetera, etcetera. 56 00:03:56,440 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: So there are several versions of that poten actual scenario, 57 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: right down to you know some of the evidently you 58 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 1: know less well based conspiracy type approaches about releases and 59 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 1: labor scapes. There are about a dozen people on the team. 60 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: Kim says that once they've gone over the evidence, they 61 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 1: were trying to identify it the most plausible scenario for 62 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: how the virus entered humans and became efficient at spreading 63 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: from person to person. This is really about understanding what happened. 64 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 1: He are firstly to do that, to understand what happened 65 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: here in this context of sas Kobe two and the 66 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: resulting COVID nineteen, but certainly to understand what that pathway 67 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: is so we can mitigate it being used again, if 68 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: you like, by a subject of emerging disease. Him says, 69 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: scientific thinking around the new coronavirus has changed over the 70 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:56,920 Speaker 1: past year. Cases were initially linked to a giant indoor 71 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 1: fresh produce market in Central war Hunt. I just thought 72 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: the transmission to humans could have come from the animals 73 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 1: on sale. Then there's president for this. The original SARS 74 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: virus in two thousand and two was linked to one 75 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: of these sites in the southern province of Guangdong. The 76 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:17,919 Speaker 1: original reports and the association with the wet market and 77 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: the parallels of their parent parallels with sas kov One, 78 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:28,799 Speaker 1: I think did shape the original perceptions and the original thinking. 79 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 1: More and more people from an epidemiological perspective, including me, 80 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: are thinking that what we've seen come out over you know, 81 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,039 Speaker 1: these last nine months in terms of additional info, even 82 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 1: though would have been sort of jigsaw piece size stuff 83 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 1: with publications, etcetera, does suggest that that one market event 84 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 1: may have been more likely an amplification or at least 85 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: an increase in the efficiency of the virus in human 86 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 1: to human transmission. The earliest known COVID nineteen cases in 87 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: Uhan were not linked to the market. This means it's 88 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 1: possible the virus began infecting humans elsewhere. Jim says it's 89 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: likely that transmission occurred several times before the virus eventually 90 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: sparked a global pandemic, As often happens with these emerging diseases. 91 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 1: You know, it doesn't necessarily taken. In fact, it typically 92 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 1: doesn't take the first time and become very efficient human 93 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 1: to human transmission. You might get one person sick, and 94 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 1: you might get one generation of transfer one person or 95 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 1: another and it dies out, etcetera. Etcetera. As we better 96 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: understand that geographic occurrence and the temple account of the 97 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: earlier cases will clarify that aspect. Scientists think that the 98 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: virus came from horseshy bats, but they're not the only 99 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: animals they can spread it. In Europe and more recently 100 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: in the United States, it's become clear that mink are 101 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: highly susceptible to sasko its who This has led to 102 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: mass cullings of these animals on pelt farms. The mink scenario, 103 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: to me, says, where you've got a large population of 104 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 1: susceptible animals in the right conditions, with a certain density, 105 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: then this virus is just going to go right through it. 106 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: And I also think that gives us some insight into 107 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: where we need to be going, how we need to 108 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 1: be shaping our investigations of the origins of this virus. 109 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 1: Him says, they'll need to test wild animals and those 110 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 1: raised in captivity for coronavirus antibodies for clues. We need 111 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: to be identifying potential plausible populations with some kind of 112 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: trace back if we can from what the earlier cases 113 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: might have had contact with. I've already got some clues 114 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,679 Speaker 1: about the species and locations where related bats or bats 115 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: with related coronaviruses are, and potentially also at the intermediate 116 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: post level. Given the viruses affinity for mink, him says 117 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 1: it makes sense to screen similar animals like ferrets and weasels. 118 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 1: The results might fill in some gaps and help us 119 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: understand the coronavirus is mysterious journey from bats to humans. 120 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: And that was Jason Gale in conversation with Hume Field. 121 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: And that's it for our show today. For coverage of 122 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:38,359 Speaker 1: the outbreak from one barrows around the world, visit Bloomberg 123 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:42,559 Speaker 1: dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, 124 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 1: please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 125 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 126 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily Edition is 127 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: produced by Tophah foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Henriksen and me 128 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: Laura Carlson. Original music by Leo Sidrian. Our editors are 129 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 130 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 1: of Podcasts. Thanks for listening.