Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal.
Speaker 2: I'm that for me. I'm a man, I'm forty. I've
Speaker 2: heard so many players say, well, I want to be happy.
Speaker 2: You want to be happy for dake Edo State. Is
Speaker 2: that woo woom?
Speaker 1: And Dan and Tye welcome back to the solid verb
Speaker 1: of boys and girls. My name is Ty Hildenbrand, joining
Speaker 1: me as always over there in beautiful New York City,
Speaker 1: my man Dan Rubinstein, Sir, how are.
Speaker 2: You you know? Ty? You sound especially clear, you sound
Speaker 2: especially punchy, bouncy, and you know what I think that is.
Speaker 2: I think it's the Sweeney effect. Yeah, I think it's
Speaker 2: the Sweeney effect. That is. First of all, that is
Speaker 2: a reference that almost nobody is going to understand. We're
Speaker 2: going to talk about this, but we are going to
Speaker 2: attribute so much to the Sweeney effect in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2: I'm good, Ty, I can't complain. I am busy, but
Speaker 2: I'm I'm very excited about tonight's show. Let's make some
Speaker 2: pretend money for ourselves and for everybody listening.
Speaker 1: Let's make some cash. That's what we're gonna do here
Speaker 1: on the podcast. This evening A fun show planned. Hello,
Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. I'm Ty he's Dan. You can
Speaker 1: find our website at solidverbal dot com if you're a
Speaker 1: new listener and want to figure out what this is
Speaker 1: all about. We've also got plenty of social media. You
Speaker 1: can find us on Twitter, the redesigned Facebook apparently as
Speaker 1: well as Instagram. There is a subreddit that some of
Speaker 1: our most fervent supporters have started out at reddit dot
Speaker 1: com slash our slash solid Verbal, And of course, if
Speaker 1: you want to make sure that you're up to speed
Speaker 1: with every last nugget of Solid Verbal goodness, going out
Speaker 1: to our website and sign up for our newsletter of intent.
Speaker 1: We have not sent one of these out in months,
Speaker 1: but but I have a sneaking suspicion that once we
Speaker 1: get things going with shirts and a few other things
Speaker 1: are working on the laboratory, we'll be sending that out
Speaker 1: a few times here over the course of the next
Speaker 1: couple weeks and months.
Speaker 2: We're getting closer on shirt number two, by the way,
Speaker 2: so we're hoping for late spring early summer, rolling everything
Speaker 2: out with that, hopefully with our friends at Cotton Bureau.
Speaker 2: So tonight's show, first of all, is there any news
Speaker 2: you want to discuss?
Speaker 1: I would love to talk about the sweety Effect. Dan.
Speaker 2: Okay, so I sent you this this morning, Okay, a
Speaker 2: PowerPoint leaks from I guess Clemson. This is I'm sure
Speaker 2: with intention. Yeah, perfect story for our podcast. Okay, so
Speaker 2: let's back up even more. Davos Sweeney has earned himself
Speaker 2: a ten year, ninety three million dollars. That's the reported
Speaker 2: new deal that he has earned for himself. And it's
Speaker 2: hard to argue against the results and to the place
Speaker 2: to which Clemson has climbed in the college football universe.
Speaker 2: The defending national champions, the recruiting like crazy, they're raising
Speaker 2: money like crazy, that the enrollment is way up at Clemson,
Speaker 2: like what happens at most big schools when football is
Speaker 2: you know, in front of millions that there's an excitement
Speaker 2: about being part of something around the program, around the school.
Speaker 2: So things are are very I believe this is the word.
Speaker 2: They're bullish right now for Clemson and Clemson football. Yes,
Speaker 2: so Nick Saban is no longer the most well paid
Speaker 2: per year head coach, and Jimbo's close, but it's it's
Speaker 2: Dabosweeney and he's making about nine million when you when
Speaker 2: you consider all of the base salaries and bonuses and
Speaker 2: incentive structures about nine a little over nine million dollars
Speaker 2: a year for the next decade and has I think
Speaker 2: it's what's a two million dollar on top of his
Speaker 2: normal buyout buyout if he goes to Alabama and that
Speaker 2: goes down by half a million a year after a
Speaker 2: couple of years. So that is that is the new deal.
Speaker 2: And people were sort of reacting with, Wow, that's no
Speaker 2: money to pay the players, no money for this, and
Speaker 2: that we got money for that, huh. And what happened
Speaker 2: was the athletic department went to the Clemson board per
Speaker 2: I saw this on Football Scoop. I don't know where
Speaker 2: exactly it broke, so I apologize.
Speaker 1: Think it broke on the athletic It.
Speaker 2: Was on the athletic Okay, good to know, good people
Speaker 2: over there at the athletic and PowerPoint slides leaked of
Speaker 2: the presentation that the athletic department gave the Clemson whatever
Speaker 2: board of trustees, directors, what have you?
Speaker 1: This is so good and perfect.
Speaker 2: The underlying artwork is the Sweeney effect that it's just
Speaker 2: when revenue for football is up, revenue for donations is up,
Speaker 2: enrollment is up, and just ratings and everything is it's
Speaker 2: a non stop upward trajectory for Clemson, and there is
Speaker 2: one man, and one man only who it can be
Speaker 2: traced back to. This is not necessarily false, but wow,
Speaker 2: the Sweeney effect is what it says along the bottom
Speaker 2: of these slides.
Speaker 1: I am excited to use this in perpetue. Yeah, on
Speaker 1: this podcast. When anything goes right, we're going to attribute
Speaker 1: it to the Sweeney effect. The other thing that I
Speaker 1: should add as part of this, and I promise we're
Speaker 1: going to move on to the actual content of our
Speaker 1: show this evening.
Speaker 2: M hmm.
Speaker 1: You and I had what I would describe as a
Speaker 1: rather productive and fruitful g chat discussion earlier today, because,
Speaker 1: as you know, as many of our listeners know, PowerPoint
Speaker 1: slides look about eighty percent the same.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a few bullet points in there, star wipe here
Speaker 2: and there.
Speaker 1: About eighty percent the same. You've seen one, you've you've
Speaker 1: kind of seen them all. You can recognize other power points.
Speaker 2: Do you make PowerPoint presentations for your do I miss
Speaker 2: stay job?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: I do?
Speaker 2: How often?
Speaker 1: Uh, fairly often I'd say, oh man, that's a that's
Speaker 1: a blind spot.
Speaker 2: For a couple of times. I don't think I've ever
Speaker 2: for a serious situation. Whenever I've had to pitch or
Speaker 2: present things, it's either I guess in video form or
Speaker 2: I'm just speaking and that no visual aids.
Speaker 1: For the live show, we use a different tool, but I.
Speaker 2: Guess technically, yes, we're in that same boat.
Speaker 1: Power Point is something I'm very familiar with, so I'm
Speaker 1: sure a lot of our listeners, a lot of them
Speaker 1: look the same. And we had a rather lengthy discussion
Speaker 1: on g chat about which cheesy Microsoft animation the producers
Speaker 1: of said slide deck use to unveil the Sweeney effect
Speaker 1: on the slide deck effect. And I took a screencap
Speaker 1: of my work computer. Hope, I'm not breaking any rules
Speaker 1: by saying that. And you and I had a lengthy
Speaker 1: discussion about which of these transition effects we believe they
Speaker 1: applied for the unveiling of this of this effect.
Speaker 2: Well, I think it's Easter time, and so I had
Speaker 2: the appear effect right as my go to my go
Speaker 2: to guess for this situation for Dabbo. Just because it
Speaker 2: all connects really really nicely timing wise, I could see
Speaker 2: them using you can put in sounds right as something
Speaker 2: a swoosh gets it.
Speaker 1: Gets a little more complicated, a little more complicated, but
Speaker 1: yes you can technically all right.
Speaker 2: So that's what I'm going with is they're probably doing
Speaker 2: it minimally because they want to say this is a
Speaker 2: big professional guy, this is a very serious presentation. We're
Speaker 2: not doing star wipes. But I think on certain sides
Speaker 2: they couldn't help themselves, like a little.
Speaker 1: Star wipe is a good transition effect. I went with
Speaker 1: grow in Turn because there's some significance there that's true.
Speaker 2: Grow in turn, Yeah, where the program is growing, the
Speaker 2: school is growing. We're turning over a new leaf and
Speaker 2: really making Dabbo feel appreciated.
Speaker 1: Okay, I am most interested in knowing if they applied
Speaker 1: any transitions to the slides. Not so much the actual
Speaker 1: content or the Sweeney effect, but the transitions to me
Speaker 1: are key here.
Speaker 2: With how much money they've poured into that program. And
Speaker 2: granted I'm definitely one not to speak as an Oregon fan,
Speaker 2: but with how much money they've put it into the program,
Speaker 2: with the new facility, if they really really wanted to
Speaker 2: go for it and sort of loosen things up, you
Speaker 2: probably go with with Will Ferrell and John c Riley
Speaker 2: from Step Brothers. Right, you probably have them do the
Speaker 2: presentation or something like maybe entertainment What is entertainment seven
Speaker 2: to twenty from Parks and rec So you either have
Speaker 2: what was the step Brothers production company? Oh god, I forget,
Speaker 2: I know, I know they did boats and hose. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: Now I'm looking this up. This is going to bother me.
Speaker 1: Let us know what you think. Yeah, I'm going to
Speaker 1: post this screencap on our worldwide Prestige Worlds Worldwide. That's it.
Speaker 2: They should have gone with Prestige Worldwide if they really
Speaker 2: wanted to spend melt the hearts and minds of the
Speaker 2: board of directors and have and have the two of
Speaker 2: them really go for it. Boats and hoes and more
Speaker 2: money for dabos.
Speaker 1: I am going to post this screencap of all possible
Speaker 1: transition effects very vaguely on our Twitter account and see.
Speaker 2: What happened, right, Okay, I like it.
Speaker 1: Sneak peek at tonight's show. Here you go.
Speaker 2: Brennan and Dale dough Back. I think I know it's
Speaker 2: Dale do Back. I think it's Brennan, not Brendan, but Brennan.
Speaker 2: Oh God, Step Brothers. Just good.
Speaker 1: Okay, So tonight's show, tonight's actual show. Daniel let's make
Speaker 1: some bets now before we get there, we've got a
Speaker 1: bit a of a rivalry going on here. Now. I
Speaker 1: came home from the mysterious day job, where I was
Speaker 1: doing productive things like screen capping and sending to you
Speaker 1: transition effects in the Microsoft power Point program. I only
Speaker 1: had a few seconds to come up with the sound,
Speaker 1: and so I pulled this one out. It's a betting show.
Speaker 1: Hopefully we're going to be making some money. I pulled
Speaker 1: this one out, plain and simple cash register right, just
Speaker 1: sounds like you're walking into a peer one imports. I
Speaker 1: would say in about one eighth the time that I
Speaker 1: thought that one up and downloaded it. Yeah, you sent
Speaker 1: this one over.
Speaker 2: Ah.
Speaker 1: Now, I'm a competitive soul, mind you. But if we're
Speaker 1: picking between the two, while mine is probably easier on
Speaker 1: the ears, if we're going to play it about ten times,
Speaker 1: yours is definitely more annoying and interesting. So I think
Speaker 1: you win.
Speaker 2: That's why that sound is why I don't go to Vegas.
Speaker 2: I'd love to go to Vegas and eat my head off,
Speaker 2: but that sound keeps me away.
Speaker 1: All right, Tonight's show, Dan and I have both very
Speaker 1: fortuitously inherited stumbled upon found in a basket outside our
Speaker 1: front door one million dollars.
Speaker 2: Think about what you would actually spend with your newly
Speaker 2: acquired one million dollars. Well, we'll get to that at
Speaker 2: the end of what we're doing. I would buy a
Speaker 2: million dollar car.
Speaker 1: Good one million solid verbal bufus, and we have all
Speaker 1: of the future's bets atter disposal. For the upcoming twenty
Speaker 1: nineteen college football season. There are some game lines, specific
Speaker 1: game lines that have been released, at least according to
Speaker 1: bettonline dot Ag. We've also got some Heisman odds. We've
Speaker 1: got some over undertotals for teams out there. We're not
Speaker 1: going to be going through all of them, but we're
Speaker 1: going to be going through the ones that we feel
Speaker 1: most confident about. So I've got a list here. You've
Speaker 1: got a list there. Neither you nor I have examined
Speaker 1: the other's list, but we solicited a couple answers out
Speaker 1: there on Twitter. Some of them actually coincide with mine.
Speaker 1: I'm sure yours as well, So Danielle tell me by away.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was definitely inspired last night when watching James
Speaker 2: holdshawer Holts Tower. Yeah, yeah, I'm jeopardy because he's at
Speaker 2: one point four million, so he's over a million. He's
Speaker 2: a professional sports gambler. He wagers for a living. And
Speaker 2: this was when we were texting about what we were
Speaker 2: going to do today, so it all clicked for me.
Speaker 2: So we're going to compare notes by the end of
Speaker 2: the year and see who's done more with their million dollars.
Speaker 2: I'm going to start with the lowest. So all I
Speaker 2: said was, and I posted this on Twitter as well,
Speaker 2: is each bet has to be at least one hundred
Speaker 2: thousand dollars. Now you have a bunch there, and I
Speaker 2: don't think you've determined your denomination.
Speaker 1: I'm going to be making this up on the fly,
Speaker 1: but I like the cut of your jib. Here.
Speaker 2: We're whales here, we are really going for We are
Speaker 2: big spenders. Each bet has to be over one hundred K,
Speaker 2: and we have to make at least five of them.
Speaker 2: You can decide how you're going to spend your money
Speaker 2: and how you're going to separate it all out as
Speaker 2: we do it. I guess I'll start with my lowest bet,
Speaker 2: which is the minimum one hundred k. I actually have
Speaker 2: two hundred K bets. The first sam Ellinger plus sixteen
Speaker 2: hundred to win the.
Speaker 1: High you dog, I have it on mine too.
Speaker 2: Forty one. I believe forty one total touchdowns last year.
Speaker 2: Promising young receivers Colin Johnson returns Van DuVernay, you know,
Speaker 2: has potential as a burner, and they're getting better at
Speaker 2: running back and defensively they take a step back. It
Speaker 2: looks like in the secondary. I love their safeties, but
Speaker 2: corner a little inexperience, so they could get torched a
Speaker 2: little bit in the Big twelve. Could get some shootouts
Speaker 2: on our hands and they and they keep giving the
Speaker 2: ball to Sam Ellinger in the red zone, so he's vulturing.
Speaker 2: So the numbers are going to be there. You can
Speaker 2: get to fifty this year.
Speaker 1: I like this a lot.
Speaker 2: And he doesn't turn the ball over either.
Speaker 1: I like this a lot. See here's my problem. By
Speaker 1: the way, there's not much value right now in the
Speaker 1: heisman market. And I'm not exactly a shark, whatever a
Speaker 1: pro gambler is considered.
Speaker 2: I'm not sharp shark.
Speaker 1: Yeah sharp, yeah, thank you, sharp, not shark. There is
Speaker 1: not a lot of value in the heisman market right now. No,
Speaker 1: it's tough to bet the Heisman because there's always so
Speaker 1: many different names. Right now, the favorite is Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1: He's about three and a half to one, and there's
Speaker 1: some other names that, of course you'll recognize that are
Speaker 1: in pretty close proximity. Tua is up there as well,
Speaker 1: Jake fromm I saw as on the list. You can
Speaker 1: guess who is on that list. The only one that
Speaker 1: I saw, as you did as well, is that Sam
Speaker 1: Ellinger is at sixteen to one and probably I think
Speaker 1: the most valued of all those in terms of odds.
Speaker 2: So what conferences the last have the last two Heisman
Speaker 2: winners come from?
Speaker 1: They've come I was gonna say Oklahoma, but the answer
Speaker 1: is the Big Twelve.
Speaker 2: They've come from the Big Twelve. And I guess it
Speaker 2: looks like what I'm counting right now on the show one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
Speaker 2: Eight of the last nine have played what position?
Speaker 1: Quarterback?
Speaker 2: That's true, This is absolutely true. So sam Ellinger I
Speaker 2: think is decent value. I think he's right at sixteen
Speaker 2: to one is what Justin Herbert is getting as well.
Speaker 2: I'd rather take Ellinger here.
Speaker 1: I agree. I agree, Okay, So here is the way
Speaker 1: this is going to work.
Speaker 2: And has a chance and has that big big September
Speaker 2: matchup to really get them square in the crosshairs of
Speaker 2: the HeiG Heisman committee hosting LSU.
Speaker 1: So we're going to write these down to keep track
Speaker 1: of this on my notepad and hopefully I can throw
Speaker 1: it over the fence to our good friends on the
Speaker 1: subreddit and they'd be willing to track these over the
Speaker 1: course of the calendar year for us.
Speaker 2: Are you going big with this bet?
Speaker 1: By the way, I think I'm gonna go real big
Speaker 1: with this bet, so WHOA. I want you to keep
Speaker 1: something in mind. When I'm looking at team win totals,
Speaker 1: when I'm looking at over unders, I'm not so much
Speaker 1: looking at what happens if it all goes right for
Speaker 1: a team right, I'm looking at a schedule, and I'm
Speaker 1: trying to come up in my head with what could
Speaker 1: all possibly go wrong? And even in the worst possible instance,
Speaker 1: will this bet lose? I have Oklahoma State over six wins.
Speaker 2: It does seem low.
Speaker 1: It seems extraordinarily low, which does frighten me a bit.
Speaker 1: But in order for that bet not to win or
Speaker 1: at least push Mike Gundhy is going five and seven
Speaker 1: and he's not going to a bowl game for the
Speaker 1: first time in the last fourteen years. He's made thirteen
Speaker 1: consecutive bowl games. The only year he was head coach
Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State that he didn't make a bull was
Speaker 1: his very first season. So I feel pretty confident that
Speaker 1: he's going to find a way to cobble it together.
Speaker 1: There is clearly some concern the over under is very low,
Speaker 1: but six wins Dan, six wins feels more than attainable
Speaker 1: to me for Mike Gundy. He's got the track record.
Speaker 1: I am going to go large with two hundred K
Speaker 1: on this one.
Speaker 2: Whoa Okay, Oregon State, McNeice and Tulsa and the non
Speaker 2: con So we're saying three and zero pretty confidently going
Speaker 2: into the Texas game in Austin. So they have to
Speaker 2: go four and five in Big twelve play for this
Speaker 2: to hit.
Speaker 1: That's right.
Speaker 2: That seems very attainable, especially when you have you have
Speaker 2: Peter Hoffman's Sean Gleeson's Oklahoma State offense. That's right. That's
Speaker 2: a very obscure reference, but shout out Peter Hoffman, who
Speaker 2: got He's approaching McKissick. He is approaching mckissions in terms
Speaker 2: of valued verballer apps.
Speaker 1: We need a sound though we can't use the mckissicks.
Speaker 2: Sound no, no, no, We'll come up with something new which
Speaker 2: would have worked well for the Cowboys. But oh well, I.
Speaker 1: Have an odea. We'll talk after the show.
Speaker 2: All right, I am with my first win total. I'm
Speaker 2: going Nebraska with So you're going over Oklahoma State. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna go with a former Big twelve opponent of Oklahoma State, Nebraska.
Speaker 2: I'm going under eight wins, staying on brand. So that's
Speaker 2: plus one ten so not huge, huge plus number, but
Speaker 2: you're getting plus money. So bet one hundred, get one
Speaker 2: hundred and ten back. I'm going with one hundred and
Speaker 2: twenty five k on this whoa, So not huge money,
Speaker 2: but since you went over there to the win totals,
Speaker 2: Nebraska has still a tricky schedule coming off of the
Speaker 2: season which certainly was moving in the right direction, but
Speaker 2: defensively they had some very rough moments. They've got Colorado,
Speaker 2: they have Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois new head coach, but
Speaker 2: I think Callo is going to be okay, especially early on.
Speaker 2: They have I think arguably either the best if you
Speaker 2: don't think Jerry Judy is as good as Labisca chanlt
Speaker 2: or second best receiver in the Country. They have Ohio
Speaker 2: State and that's the only one of the really big
Speaker 2: four or five whatever. They have Wisconsin later on in
Speaker 2: the season. But going through their schedule, they have Ohio State,
Speaker 2: they go two Minnesota and improving Minnesota, they host Wisconsin,
Speaker 2: and then they finish with obviously, as they do every year, Iowa.
Speaker 2: It's a lot. When I went through this schedule and
Speaker 2: I didn't do best case, I didn't do worst case.
Speaker 2: I was seeing six or seven, which is still really
Speaker 2: nice improvement. Great, But I'm going to take the under
Speaker 2: of eight for Nebraska.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I'm betting one hundred and twenty five k
Speaker 2: on that at plus money.
Speaker 1: I think it's good value, decent value. Okay, moving on,
Speaker 1: let's do another over under. Dan. I'm going to play
Speaker 1: the sound here because I'm feeling saucy again, continuing with
Speaker 1: my thought from earlier. Yeah, I'm looking at Clemson's schedule
Speaker 1: this year, and I am not seeing any losses on
Speaker 1: this schedule. Now, what's interesting to me, like Washington from
Speaker 1: a few years ago, right right, that's part of the issue. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they're overunder is eleven, which means that in order for
Speaker 1: this bet to try it, really it's eleven. Wow. In
Speaker 1: order for Clemson to truly lose this bet, in order
Speaker 1: for you to actually lose your money and not just tie,
Speaker 1: they need to go ten and two. Yeah, so worst
Speaker 1: case scenario if they lose one game, you don't win
Speaker 1: any new money, but you don't lose the old eleven wins.
Speaker 2: How about that?
Speaker 1: Okay, eleven wins is the overunder. And here is what
Speaker 1: their schedule looks like. They got Georgia Tech at home.
Speaker 1: They've got A and M at home. Second week of
Speaker 1: the year. Should be an interesting game, maybe more of
Speaker 1: a measuring stick for A and M than Clemson.
Speaker 2: But I believe Georgia Tech that game kicks off the
Speaker 2: ACC network their existence ACC app State did.
Speaker 1: Yeah, We're at Syracuse a week after A and M,
Speaker 1: which could be interesting. Carrier Dom Charlotte, then they're at
Speaker 1: North Carolina. Then there's a bye before Florida State at home.
Speaker 1: Mind you at Louisville home against Boston College home against Wafford,
Speaker 1: at NC State home against Wake, then a bye before
Speaker 1: they get to their road tilt against South Carolina. I
Speaker 1: don't see two losses on that schedule for Clemson, not
Speaker 1: with all they've got coming back, Not with Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 1: on the roster, So I feel pretty good about that.
Speaker 1: I am gonna say one fifty, one hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: large on Clemson over eleven wins.
Speaker 2: So what you're basically banking on here if you feel
Speaker 2: that confident is they're gonna pull Trevor Lawrence as soon
Speaker 2: as they go up twenty seventeen in some of these games.
Speaker 2: Because if Trevor Lawrence goes.
Speaker 1: Down twenty to seventeen, no they're not.
Speaker 2: I'm saying up seventeen or twenty points.
Speaker 1: Continue, yes, continue.
Speaker 2: The margin is seventeen or twenty points because I don't
Speaker 2: is it's still Chase Bryce behind Trevor Lawrence. Will further investigate,
Speaker 2: but yes, the depth there isn't where say last year
Speaker 2: with with Tua and having Jalen Hurts behind him. So
Speaker 2: that's a concern. The two losses are really hard to find.
Speaker 2: You really have to squint, you gotta swin to find.
Speaker 2: You gotta maybe look for a weird I mean, it's
Speaker 2: the carrier in A and M It's September is the
Speaker 2: tough month.
Speaker 1: September's tough, the carrier domes weird. Maybe Louisville week after
Speaker 1: Florida State.
Speaker 2: No, I don't see that, And I mean Louis's probably
Speaker 2: better than they're better than the record in nu keiats.
Speaker 2: It's a and M syracusan to me. South Carolina who
Speaker 2: moved the ball really well at times, just getting blown
Speaker 2: out last season, but they're not losing two of those.
Speaker 2: I don't see it. So it feels pushy to me.
Speaker 2: So if you'll stay away ish to me. But I
Speaker 2: get it now.
Speaker 1: I should also add that the line here, the money
Speaker 1: line is you've got it at minus one forty, which
Speaker 1: means that if I'm betting one hundred and fifty k
Speaker 1: on this, I'm not getting.
Speaker 2: No, you're not get much.
Speaker 1: I'm not getting as much in return. But you know what,
Speaker 1: if the minimum is one hundred and I can still
Speaker 1: get a lot in return, I'm gonna take that.
Speaker 2: That's right. No, that's a good amount of college.
Speaker 1: Let me go one more time here, let me take
Speaker 1: one more spin on the over underwheel. If I could,
Speaker 1: I just invented an over underwheel there, and I hope
Speaker 1: that's okay.
Speaker 2: I like it.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about let's talk about Florida State. Also in
Speaker 1: the ACC Florida State's over I'm ready is seven and
Speaker 1: a half now. Look listen, I know it didn't go
Speaker 1: well for Florida State a year ago, but over seven
Speaker 1: and a half means that they need to get to
Speaker 1: eight wins. They can lose four games on their schedule,
Speaker 1: and here's what their schedule looks like. First and foremost,
Speaker 1: a neutral syche game, but more of a home game
Speaker 1: really when Boise State comes into town Week one in Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: sort of a home game.
Speaker 2: A home game it is.
Speaker 1: We've got the ULM Warhawks at Virginia, at Virginia Louisville,
Speaker 1: NC State, at Clemson, at Wake QS Miami, Boston College,
Speaker 1: Alabama State, and at Florida. A decidedly more difficult schedule
Speaker 1: than what we just saw from Clemson. Not trying to
Speaker 1: not Clemson, but I think that's a much more difficult schedule.
Speaker 1: Do you think Florida State loses more than four of
Speaker 1: those games? It seems like it's a good number, but
Speaker 1: more than four seems like a stretch, especially after things
Speaker 1: win a South as they did a year ago. For
Speaker 1: Willie Taggert, I think he gets them back on the
Speaker 1: straight and narrow and at eighty four should be more
Speaker 1: than attainable.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have Kendall Briles. How can you not nice,
Speaker 2: straight and narrow. So Boise, Clemson, Miami Florida, Syracuse are
Speaker 2: you're if they're going seven and five and what that
Speaker 2: would go under?
Speaker 1: That would go under?
Speaker 2: Yes, those seem like the most obvious with what Syracuse
Speaker 2: did to them last year. Granted it was in the
Speaker 2: Carrier Dome. Miami Florida and Clemson have comparable, if not superior, talent,
Speaker 2: and Boise State has even though they definitely struggled last
Speaker 2: year against Oklahoma State, they have acquitted themselves relatively well
Speaker 2: against teams that are clearly more talented than them, which
Speaker 2: Florida State is, and especially getting them. I think that's
Speaker 2: still in August, so you can pencil in six and
Speaker 2: six pretty not confidently, but it makes sense.
Speaker 1: Givee eight and four. Wow, Okay, right now it's at
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I'm going to take the over
Speaker 1: at minus one ten.
Speaker 2: So which of those? So you you think Boise's a win,
Speaker 2: then I assume, well, I.
Speaker 1: Don't know which one's will win. Okay, I'm gonna take you.
Speaker 2: Have them beating Boise or Syracuse.
Speaker 1: You have to essentially, yes, Yeah, I think I think
Speaker 1: they can beat Boise in Week one. Boise's got some
Speaker 1: of their own turnover that they need to deal with. Uh,
Speaker 1: But you know, I mean there, Look, where Florida State's
Speaker 1: coming from is obviously very different from where Clemson's coming from.
Speaker 1: There's a game on the road Week three at Virginia.
Speaker 1: Who knows what happens in that game, all right, Virginia
Speaker 1: had some stuff to.
Speaker 2: Do the history of there losing to Virginia and Charlottesville,
Speaker 2: all right.
Speaker 1: So there are more games on this schedule that frighten
Speaker 1: me clearly than on the Clemson side. But I still
Speaker 1: feel like Florida State's got so much talent. Willie Taggart
Speaker 1: still a good coach. Last year didn't go well. He
Speaker 1: spent a considerable amount of energy in the offseason trying
Speaker 1: to retool things. Added a little bit of depth at
Speaker 1: quarterback with Hornybrook. Please don't make me go into that
Speaker 1: discussion again, Alex Horneybrook.
Speaker 2: But yeah, Blackman or Hornybrook, yep. Or they get a
Speaker 2: Louisville waiver maybe from there the transfer from Louisville, who knows.
Speaker 1: Look, last year, I said Florida State was going to
Speaker 1: go six and six, and I hedged because I didn't
Speaker 1: feel good about it, but it ended up being mostly right.
Speaker 1: This year. I look at the team. I like the talent.
Speaker 1: The schedule doesn't set up like the easiest schedule in
Speaker 1: the world, but I do believe in Willie Taggart and
Speaker 1: the talent they've got in Tallahassee. So I'm going over.
Speaker 1: I'm going over. I'm gonna I believe less one hundred k.
Speaker 1: That takes me up to four hundred and fifty K
Speaker 1: in total bets here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my Sam sam Ellinger bet was one hundred. My
Speaker 2: Nebraska under was one twenty five. I have usc over
Speaker 2: seven and a half wins really at plus money plus
Speaker 2: one thirty, so about one hundred get one hundred and
Speaker 2: thirty back. I only have one hundred K there. But
Speaker 2: in this situation, I'm betting on talent. Even though I'm
Speaker 2: never a believer in the Hail Mary coordinator higher to fix.
Speaker 2: You know, I am still scarred from the Brady Oak era,
Speaker 2: and I think Graham Harold's a lot more talented with
Speaker 2: offense than Brady Hope loves with defense. But I am
Speaker 2: a believer in JD. Daniels JT. Daniels taking a step forward,
Speaker 2: even though the team necessarily didn't necessarily want him starting
Speaker 2: last year. I think the players seem to want Sears
Speaker 2: if I remember correctly, rather than J. T. Daniels stepping
Speaker 2: in based on camp, but usc it's one of tricky
Speaker 2: September Fresno State, Stanford BYU Utah. But I still really
Speaker 2: like the talent, especially upfront on defense with how they've
Speaker 2: recruited down recruiting class this year, for sure, but upfront
Speaker 2: they still clancy Pendergast. I still like them at receiver,
Speaker 2: even though they're thinner there. I think there's still enough
Speaker 2: talent in a downpack twelve. They have the Utah than
Speaker 2: at Washington and then a bye week and then at
Speaker 2: Notre Dame. Stretch for sure, tricky, but if you're betting
Speaker 2: on up side and you're getting plus money the back
Speaker 2: half of their schedule, they have essentially one and a
Speaker 2: half pretty good teams in Oregon and ASU. I don't
Speaker 2: consider Cal to be a full team. So them going
Speaker 2: eight and four and losing to say, Fresno, Stanford, Utah,
Speaker 2: Notre Dame, I think it's possible for sure. Okay, I
Speaker 2: think they can beat Oregon, they can beat Cal UCLA
Speaker 2: Arizona State, Colorado, Arizona. They can beat Washington. We don't
Speaker 2: know what's going with Washington's quarterback situation. So I am
Speaker 2: and UA loses a ton on defense. I think just
Speaker 2: in terms of value, it's pretty decent.
Speaker 1: All Right, So you're saying eight and four at minimum correct?
Speaker 1: Here is the operative question? Then, yeah, eight and four.
Speaker 1: Is Clay Hilton back in twenty twenty?
Speaker 2: No he's not. Yeah, I agree, he makes less money
Speaker 2: or he actually he probably is in a great situation
Speaker 2: with his buyout. But I definitely make pretend mine to hear.
Speaker 1: All right, before we go any further, Dan, Yes, let's talk.
Speaker 2: Oh I'm ready.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about your new luggage.
Speaker 2: Oh, I am ready to do this. Yes.
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Speaker 2: It's such a smooth ride too. I'm I don't love traveling,
Speaker 2: especially now that I have a gosh solid baby's three
Speaker 2: months old, but this kind of gets me excited to
Speaker 2: go back back in the air.
Speaker 1: By the way, you're not implying that you're putting the
Speaker 1: baby in the suitcase, right.
Speaker 2: I can either confirm nor deny that's not Dare you
Speaker 2: question all parenting styles are different?
Speaker 1: That is not listed on their benefit sheet here that
Speaker 1: they provided.
Speaker 2: Just define high baby's not meant to travel in a
Speaker 2: wast suitcases.
Speaker 1: Also Dan very quickly. We talked about this last week.
Speaker 1: Important safety message. If you're ever stopped at a railway crossing,
Speaker 1: some of you out there might be right this very minute.
Speaker 1: You got the crossing signals flashing, you don't see the train.
Speaker 1: Maybe it's a slow moving train. You're thinking you can
Speaker 1: get across the tracks before the train comes. Think about
Speaker 1: this alone. In twenty eighteen, two hundred and seventy people
Speaker 1: were killed at railroad crossings. It's horrible. Two hundred and seventy.
Speaker 2: It's awful.
Speaker 1: The message to you is very simple, stop because trains can't.
Speaker 1: That's from our good friends over at the National Highway
Speaker 1: Traffic Safety Administration, Dan nitz.
Speaker 2: I gotta tell you I love stopping in plenty of
Speaker 2: time for a train. I'm being very serious right now.
Speaker 2: I love a good stop before the train because when
Speaker 2: the train starts coming by, chugging by. I don't know
Speaker 2: if that's the correct verb anymore, sure, but you get
Speaker 2: to say the same thing to yourself every time. If
Speaker 2: it's not a passenger, if it's not like an Amtrak
Speaker 2: or something, you get to say, I wonder what they're hauling.
Speaker 2: I wonder what's going Probably some lumber lumber. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: don't know. That's what I just assume, but yeah, I
Speaker 2: like to I like a good long view of a train.
Speaker 1: All right, Dan, I'm gonna move on. Okay, I don't
Speaker 1: mean to cut you off.
Speaker 2: You ever take any long train rides there? Ty, No,
Speaker 2: I haven't, really, no, never have. I think I've mentioned
Speaker 2: this before, but nine to eleven happened right before I
Speaker 2: was supposed to fly to Eugene, Oregon to go to college.
Speaker 2: All flights grounded. Had to take a train to college
Speaker 2: long ride in southern California.
Speaker 1: As a long ride, it could have been a.
Speaker 2: Lot more uncomfortable. I had a good time on that train.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on. I'm gonna give my fourth
Speaker 1: bet for oh, y'all h my ears, Dan, I don't
Speaker 1: want to jinx your team at all, but let's go
Speaker 1: Oregon plus one at usc OH November the second. I
Speaker 1: don't hate that this seems like an egregiously low line.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's going to get to ten, but
Speaker 1: at one point it's basically a pick them. At this
Speaker 1: point in the season, and especially in light of so
Speaker 1: many of the questions we have about USC, they could
Speaker 1: go eight for they could hit your over under and
Speaker 1: still very well lose this game at home to Oregon. Oregon,
Speaker 1: by the way, is one of those teams in the
Speaker 1: PAC twelve North that stands a pretty good chance at
Speaker 1: making a run at least at the North, sure certainly
Speaker 1: at the PAC twelve. And who knows, they were a
Speaker 1: trendy pick a couple months ago as a dark horse
Speaker 1: playoff team. We could debate the merits of that, but
Speaker 1: they've got a pretty good team coming back and only
Speaker 1: a one point favorite against the USC team. By that point,
Speaker 1: it'll be late in the year. Hopefully Clay Hilt will
Speaker 1: have some of their issues sorted out. But there just
Speaker 1: isn't a whole lot to give you the warm fuzzies
Speaker 1: that they're gonna be able to beat a team like Oregon.
Speaker 1: So I feel pretty good about Oregon. Plus one, it's
Speaker 1: on November the second. I'm going to go one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty k on that one.
Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, Oregon's in a good position to travel well,
Speaker 2: which they didn't last year. And then Justin Herbert's getting
Speaker 2: a lot of the attention and somewhat rightfully so. But
Speaker 2: they're deep at running back. The offensive line is all
Speaker 2: super I mean, Pinay Sewell is a true sophomore, but
Speaker 2: I think the rest of them are fifth year seniors
Speaker 2: and they're all back from last season, so they have
Speaker 2: a good chance with a new defensive coordinator to be
Speaker 2: unpredictable and really good on defense and run the ball
Speaker 2: really well which typically travels, you know. Respect. So I
Speaker 2: don't hate that pick at all, especially since USC by
Speaker 2: what do you say was November second. Yeah, if USC
Speaker 2: is just an abject disaster, you're not gonna have much
Speaker 2: of a home field by November twod and Oregon could
Speaker 2: comfortably win that game. It's not unreasonable.
Speaker 1: You could have interim coach Graham Harrell by that point. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: you could never know, all right, So I'm in right now,
Speaker 1: I've got what is this six hundred k in imaginary bets.
Speaker 1: My hunch is that you've got some big instill on
Speaker 1: the board.
Speaker 2: I do. My next pick is, I'm getting nine points
Speaker 2: Auburn at home against Georgia. Nine points. I know Auburn
Speaker 2: is retooling the linebacking corps, but up front they've got
Speaker 2: at least a couple first, second, third round lineman and
Speaker 2: you're you're essentially gambling on either was Joey Gatewood or
Speaker 2: bow Nicks being pretty good. But you also have the
Speaker 2: reassurance that it appears that Gus Malson is going to
Speaker 2: be in charge of the off once again, like he
Speaker 2: was in the bowl game against Purdue and like he
Speaker 2: was when Auburn had an offense. And so there is
Speaker 2: something pretty exciting about plus money. Even though I really
Speaker 2: love Georgia this year, it's a lot of points for
Speaker 2: what looks to be another good defense at home in
Speaker 2: a tough place to play, in a rivalry game, pushing
Speaker 2: double ditch. I know the comfortable I know the Bulldogs
Speaker 2: comfortably won last year, but that was in Athens, and
Speaker 2: that's too many points for me. So I'm I'm gonna
Speaker 2: comfortably take those nine. And I have that as a
Speaker 2: buck twenty five as well.
Speaker 1: Wow, okay, so you're up to five point fifty later
Speaker 1: on in the season, Yes, in imaginary cullivery.
Speaker 2: And I think that's I believe that's after the two
Speaker 2: games leading up to it. If you're a body blow
Speaker 2: believer triple B, the real triple B, that's after Florida
Speaker 2: and after Miszoo, who gave Georgia some trouble last year.
Speaker 2: So it's it's a road. It's a road to get
Speaker 2: to a rivalry game. That's tough.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the what is it second week of
Speaker 1: the year. Okay, a lot of interesting non conference games
Speaker 1: in the early part of September, as as always. Really
Speaker 1: and I looked at this game, I did a double take.
Speaker 1: I went, I looked at depth charts, I looked at
Speaker 1: some notes that I've taken here in the infancy of
Speaker 1: the preseason. I really like Stanford minus two and a
Speaker 1: half at UCF. It's an interesting matchup. Yeah, I'm sure
Speaker 1: that it's gonna get a ton of attention because it's
Speaker 1: a very interesting non conference game. Let's be honest, Stanford
Speaker 1: is not without some of their own questions. For a
Speaker 1: long time, one of the biggest strengths for Stanford has
Speaker 1: been the offensive line in the running game. Yeah, Bryce
Speaker 1: Love is obviously gone. He's dealing with his own injury
Speaker 1: issues or trying to come back from injury as he
Speaker 1: now moves on into the NFL. And I believe Stanford
Speaker 1: loses something like four or five offensive linemen.
Speaker 2: So, yeah, Walker Little's back. He's probably gonna be a
Speaker 2: top fifteen pick next year.
Speaker 1: Oh, they're sort of retooling. They also lose our boy
Speaker 1: jj arthega white Side.
Speaker 2: Did you get that one right?
Speaker 1: So there are a lot of questions on the Stanford side,
Speaker 1: and UCF will of course be without Mackenzie Milton, who's
Speaker 1: still recovering from his own terrible injury that we saw
Speaker 1: towards the end of last season.
Speaker 2: He's not playing in this game.
Speaker 1: He's not playing in It sucks, but yeah, it does suck.
Speaker 1: Dariel mack will be the quarterback unless he is usurped
Speaker 1: by one Brandon Winbush or someone else on the roster.
Speaker 1: But I like Stanford's chances here. I think this is
Speaker 1: a big game for UCF. It's at is it at home?
Speaker 1: Where's this game?
Speaker 2: It's in Orlando.
Speaker 1: This game is in Orlando.
Speaker 2: M hm.
Speaker 1: A lot working on the UCF side. But Stanford has
Speaker 1: been in these games before. I think they can grind
Speaker 1: it out. I think they can win by a field goal.
Speaker 1: I think they win by more than a field goal.
Speaker 1: I really like kJ Costello. I think they win this
Speaker 1: one going away by seven to ten points over UCF.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to a let's go one hundred k
Speaker 1: on this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no Whiteside, No, Parkinson that you know they're down
Speaker 2: there too. They're two big tight ends. Ah, Stanford's a
Speaker 2: tricky team this year because I love kJ Costello Whiteside
Speaker 2: and that is his name to me. Yeah, and I
Speaker 2: still like UCF. I still like Josh Hypel, I still
Speaker 2: like their ability. Dariel Mack did look, you know, outside
Speaker 2: of some very certain quarters against LSU, but near the
Speaker 2: end of the season when he was thrown into duty,
Speaker 2: he had some huge, huge moments. That's tough for me.
Speaker 2: Stanford has been a slow starter. If I could bet
Speaker 2: against them, is there a line for the Northwestern game? Didn't?
Speaker 2: I know they're at home, so it's not body clock, man.
Speaker 2: I would love to bet Northwestern in that. So the
Speaker 2: case against Stanford against UCF, it's also a second straight
Speaker 2: road game after the USC game, so they could go
Speaker 2: into LA and beat USC and then you're just prime letdown,
Speaker 2: potential confident going into Orlando and they have Oregon the
Speaker 2: following week, I believe. So it's this weird. I wouldn't
Speaker 2: call it a full let down look ahead Sandwich, but
Speaker 2: maybe a let down look ahead slow Okay, yeah, because
Speaker 2: you're going to take UCF on the road. Seriously, of course,
Speaker 2: So I don't love that as much as you do,
Speaker 2: is what I'm saying. I'll have to get closer before
Speaker 2: I fully decide. But that doesn't jump out to me
Speaker 2: in the way it does Free What.
Speaker 1: Jumps out to me about that game, Then we'll move on.
Speaker 1: Even though I have real serious questions about Stanford in
Speaker 1: the trenches, particularly on offense, I still feel like whatever
Speaker 1: they bring in, whoever their new starters are on the
Speaker 1: offensive line, they're going to be able to push against UCF.
Speaker 1: There's been the one knock against UCF. They've gotten better defensively,
Speaker 1: that's where the real gap still exists. They've been able
Speaker 1: to outscore teams, but defensively, if you got a ball
Speaker 1: control team potentially like Stanford who can't control the ball
Speaker 1: can play their game. I think that works their advantage
Speaker 1: in a big way here. So one K Stanford minus
Speaker 1: two and a half second week of the year road
Speaker 1: tilt against UCF.
Speaker 2: Okay, I've got another interesting I'm not going with the
Speaker 2: road team here, but I've got another interesting line. What
Speaker 2: do I have this as? I have this as Oh,
Speaker 2: there's some big money here. You want me to get
Speaker 2: into this two hundred K pick? Or you want me
Speaker 2: to get into one hundred and fifty K win total
Speaker 2: two hundred K. I have Penn State plus four and
Speaker 2: a half at home against Michigan, and I love home
Speaker 2: dogs with promising talented defenses. Tyler, you know this about me.
Speaker 1: I do. So.
Speaker 2: This will be the second straight Michigan road game during
Speaker 2: this part of the schedule, and it's a week before
Speaker 2: Notre Dame. Not to say this is a letdown look
Speaker 2: ahead sandwich for Michigan, but it is a week before
Speaker 2: Notre Dame. And even though Penn State is going through
Speaker 2: a ton of new faces, new ideas whatever on offense,
Speaker 2: with new quarterback, new starting running back, you know, trying
Speaker 2: to get the receiving situation in order around kJ Hammler,
Speaker 2: I still I'm just going to go with the system
Speaker 2: that works for me, and that is taking that good
Speaker 2: talented defense. Penn State by the end of the year
Speaker 2: looked like they had a what top ten, top twelve
Speaker 2: defense nationally? That's right, Yeah, it's good enough for me,
Speaker 2: especially when Michigan loses a ton of pieces on their
Speaker 2: own defense. So I'm I'm gonna roll with that, especially
Speaker 2: with the confidence that some of the guys who played
Speaker 2: in this game the last time it was in Happy Valley.
Speaker 2: Will be playing with because they murdered Michigan two years ago.
Speaker 2: Don't look up what happened last year?
Speaker 1: Interesting? Okay, Dan?
Speaker 2: Yeah, how do you feel about that? As somebody closer
Speaker 2: and like closer attention to Penn State than I do.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm pretty high on Michigan this year. Now. I
Speaker 1: did look at that game. I had a hard time
Speaker 1: pulling the trigger. It was intriguing to me because obviously
Speaker 1: we've got to think for home dogs in this program.
Speaker 2: Lous money love a home dog.
Speaker 1: I thought about it. I love their defense. I've got
Speaker 1: some other games here featuring Michigan that I am I
Speaker 1: would say more strongly considering you look.
Speaker 2: At a week three. I looked at that one as well.
Speaker 1: No, oh, okay, I've got one later in the year
Speaker 1: that I'm looking at right now. I'm not sure if
Speaker 1: I'm going to do it or not. I am going
Speaker 1: to stay within the state of Michigan. Though. Let's go
Speaker 1: back to the well and back to September the fourteenth.
Speaker 2: We better do better do sort of.
Speaker 1: Arizona State plus six. They're getting plus odds at plus
Speaker 1: one oh five, which means again, you put down ten bucks,
Speaker 1: if you win and you get ten to fifty back,
Speaker 1: you'd value ASU plus six. Second week of the year
Speaker 1: at Michigan State. Listen, le, Michigan State could well win
Speaker 1: this game. There's no at home Sidney Slansing tough place
Speaker 1: to win. It's at home weird road tilt for ASU.
Speaker 1: ASU did not let me down. They were not the
Speaker 1: laughing stock last year that I expected them to be
Speaker 1: with the new KERM Edwards model of coaching in college football.
Speaker 1: Actually okay, by and large, right, oh totally.
Speaker 2: I mean they were inconsistent and as soon as they
Speaker 2: looked good, they kind of looked terrible. But that that'll happen.
Speaker 1: They started out really strongly and then fizzled a little bit.
Speaker 1: But by and large, is not a bad debut for
Speaker 1: one Herm Edwards Michigan State. I don't know what happened
Speaker 1: last year in Michigan State.
Speaker 2: I do couldn't move the ball in the correct direction.
Speaker 1: I don't know what happened in Michigan State last year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: early season tilt strikes me as an ugly game. Six
Speaker 1: points is a lot in a game like that where
Speaker 1: neither team has fully figured themselves out. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: ASU one hundred K plus the points.
Speaker 2: So Arizona State. They finished the season really well, actually,
Speaker 2: so it was really the middle point, the early middle
Speaker 2: point of the season where they weren't but Herm Edwards
Speaker 2: and his staff inherited what felt like a seventh year
Speaker 2: starting quarterback in Manny Wilkins, the clear best receiver who
Speaker 2: played the entire con the entire year, leaviscu Chnot was
Speaker 2: the best, but in terms of production wise, Nikhil Harry
Speaker 2: was that guy. He's no longer there. So offensively, they're
Speaker 2: gonna look different, and they might be starting a true freshman,
Speaker 2: a talented true freshman, but a true freshman, nonetheless a
Speaker 2: quarterback to go against that defense as what's the spread
Speaker 2: against six and a half seven points, six points? Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's hard to see Michigan State separating themselves with such
Speaker 2: a huge, huge margin for them. But gosh, I'm not
Speaker 2: super crazy about as U yet. I'll need some time
Speaker 2: to talk.
Speaker 1: Look at this one though, he definitely looked at this one.
Speaker 1: I know you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, when you have something as inept as Michigan
Speaker 2: State's offense was last year, that's a tantalizing situation.
Speaker 1: A bet against that's going to be an overlooked game
Speaker 1: two yeah, in week two, but it's it's an interesting matchup,
Speaker 1: at least for Thorks like us. I'm up to eight
Speaker 1: hundred K in bets. All right, I can go one
Speaker 1: big in or two smalls here to close out our
Speaker 1: little show.
Speaker 2: So I have three hundred K left. I've got me
Speaker 2: three fifty. Seven to fifty is what I've got for
Speaker 2: you. You've I've got seven to fifty left, seven fifty okay,
Speaker 2: so all right. I've made seven to fifty, so I
Speaker 2: have two hundred and fifty if my way works out.
Speaker 1: Hold on, I'm not good at math. That's two twenty five,
Speaker 1: three twenty five okay, So you've got six fifty left.
Speaker 2: I've got six fifty okay math.
Speaker 1: Three fifty left? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Sorry, all right, I don't know if you want to
Speaker 2: play the sound hmm there shots.
Speaker 1: Shoot me straight.
Speaker 2: Then when you got value wise, I don't fully believe this,
Speaker 2: but value wise I like it. I've got LSU and
Speaker 2: the under of nine wins, wow, and the under of
Speaker 2: nine wins. I'm going to Texas. I've got one hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty k on this YO. So going to Texas
Speaker 2: Utah State, it won't be as good as they were
Speaker 2: last probably, but we'll see Vanderbilt's fine on the road.
Speaker 2: They should win that. But Florida at Mississippi State, Auburn,
Speaker 2: Alabama that's a rough October early November, and they finished
Speaker 2: with A and M. So best case scenario for LSU,
Speaker 2: they're getting ten wins probably right they're losing something random
Speaker 2: and they're losing at Alabama. That's just how it works now,
Speaker 2: So that's best case. You're beating it by your best
Speaker 2: case is barely covering this. So I think a medium
Speaker 2: case is seven and five. A medium case for LSU
Speaker 2: this year, especially without the heartbeat of their defense from
Speaker 2: last year, I think they'll still be very good up front.
Speaker 2: They recruited incredibly well. Their best cover corner from last season.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I like Chris Curry and what he might add to
Speaker 2: the offense, a new running back to run over everybody,
Speaker 2: but that's tough sledding when you add in that tough
Speaker 2: non conference game. So I think there's good value you
Speaker 2: going under nine and going seven to five, eight and four.
Speaker 1: Why do you give me another one? All right? Both
Speaker 1: have this big one. Give me your big one.
Speaker 2: Two hundred k. So the other pick that I had
Speaker 2: at two hundred k was Penn State plus four and
Speaker 2: a half by the way against Michigan. I have Georgia
Speaker 2: winning the national championship at plus seven hundred seven to
Speaker 2: one odds right now for Georgia, which I like a lot.
Speaker 1: So you're really high on Georgia. You weren't kidtens.
Speaker 2: So I'm going home with one point four million dollars
Speaker 2: if this hits.
Speaker 1: I like cut of your jib here how I.
Speaker 2: Really like and I've liked him since since basically the
Speaker 2: Notre Dame game from his freshman year. I love Jake
Speaker 2: from I love the recruiting around him, even though they
Speaker 2: lose key pieces, you know, offensive skill wise and on defense,
Speaker 2: big cogs. I just the talent level is so high
Speaker 2: with Georgia that it makes sense to me that maybe
Speaker 2: Alabama is only an eleven and one team this year,
Speaker 2: and maybe after two years of just doing something either
Speaker 2: boneheaded like they did last year or just giving up
Speaker 2: the perfect play like they did the year before the
Speaker 2: last play of the game. There's something about this year's
Speaker 2: Georgia team, the depth, you know, My big thing is
Speaker 2: quarterback and defense. I like the line in front of
Speaker 2: Jake from a good deal. I don't. They have Notre
Speaker 2: Dame at home, I believe, but that's not Week one
Speaker 2: or two. They have some time to get into a rhythm.
Speaker 2: They go to Tennessee, which I think is going to
Speaker 2: be tricky. They go to Auburn in the rivalry game,
Speaker 2: which not gonna be easy at all. They go to Tech,
Speaker 2: but this is a good year to get Tech as
Speaker 2: they rebuild and retool. I like it. They don't have
Speaker 2: Bama during the regular season and a random crossover they'll
Speaker 2: have to go through, most likely Alabama in the championship game.
Speaker 2: And then I just the elite teams in college football
Speaker 2: don't jump out to me as obvious right now. Who
Speaker 2: is it in the Pac twelve? Who is it in
Speaker 2: the Big twelve? I mean, probably still Oklahoma with their
Speaker 2: recent track record. But you're buying in Jalen Hurts in
Speaker 2: a new system year one. I think Justin Fields is
Speaker 2: going to be a clear step back from Dwayne Haskins.
Speaker 2: I don't think he is a plug and play at all.
Speaker 2: I think I think you're under selling Dwayne haskins specialness
Speaker 2: from last year. If you think that, you know the
Speaker 2: same questions about Michigan still linger. You know, Clemson is
Speaker 2: the clear, clear, clear elite, But I don't know. I
Speaker 2: think there's value there plus seven hundred quarterback and defense
Speaker 2: and talent. Well you know what, Dan and a team
Speaker 2: that's been there recently. They've been there recently. If you're
Speaker 2: getting balls, I feel like I got it's not even
Speaker 2: that balls. Well it's not ballsy, but it's I think
Speaker 2: the third most likely team.
Speaker 1: It's no, it's it's balls because first off, it's not
Speaker 1: Clemson er Alabama, and second right, it's two hundred k
Speaker 1: on seven to one. That's a sure thing they're correct.
Speaker 1: So if you're doing it, I'm gonna do it too.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna break my own rule here. You've taken me
Speaker 1: off my game. Wow, I'm gonna go two hundred large
Speaker 1: on Trevor Lawrence to win the heis minute three and
Speaker 1: a half to one. Now he is the favorite. I
Speaker 1: also openly hate the Heisman Trophy.
Speaker 2: But you like earning money.
Speaker 1: I like earning money, especially fake cliverbal bumps. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: if I win, if I hit this one with my
Speaker 1: two hundred K, that I'm putting on it, that would
Speaker 1: essentially amount to what seven hundred k?
Speaker 2: The math checks out three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would fund some of the other losing bets
Speaker 1: that I have most assuredly made. Trevor Lawrences. I have
Speaker 1: been high on Trevor Lawrence ever since he was recruited.
Speaker 1: There was a moment, a brief moment towards the beginning
Speaker 1: part of last year where I wasn't sure, but then
Speaker 1: second half the season he clearly found his own. The
Speaker 1: playoff against Notre Dame, I'm not going to say was
Speaker 1: a coming out party, but it was certainly the biggest
Speaker 1: game we had seen him play in his young career,
Speaker 1: and he didn't miss a beat. They killed Notre Dame
Speaker 1: in that game, and then they killed Alabama in the
Speaker 1: National Championship. He left me so impressed. The only thing
Speaker 1: stopping him from winning more national championships or the Heisman Trophy,
Speaker 1: especially with his receiving corps that he's got coming back
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen, is probably an injury and no one's
Speaker 1: rooting for that.
Speaker 2: Absolutely correct? Is there? I mean, I'll have to think
Speaker 2: about it and go back. Is there a better duo
Speaker 2: right now than t Higgins? And Justin Ross No, I
Speaker 2: mean individually, maybe Laviska Shenault and Jerry Judy are there.
Speaker 1: No, And then when you factor in Travis Etn out
Speaker 1: of the backfield, who is also also on that list
Speaker 1: of Heisman front runners, it's just a murderer's row of
Speaker 1: offensive weapons for Trevor Lawrence. He's going to have a
Speaker 1: great support system around him. Three and a half to one.
Speaker 1: Not the best value for the Heisman, granted, certainly not
Speaker 1: as good as value as Sam Ellinger. I think I
Speaker 1: talked myself off Trevor Lawrence earlier, but now that I
Speaker 1: see you get in ballsy with it. Two hundred K
Speaker 1: for me on Trevor Lawrence to win the Heisman Trophy
Speaker 1: and that takes.
Speaker 2: So you also have a new look starting defensive line.
Speaker 2: I know they rotate in a ton, so a new
Speaker 2: look starting defensive line, and some key defensive pieces from
Speaker 2: last year also have moved on. They're not dead, they're
Speaker 2: just graduated or moved on to the NFL. We could
Speaker 2: see more. Oh, it's thirty four twenty one halfway through
Speaker 2: the fourth where it would have been thirty four to
Speaker 2: seven poll Trevor Lawrence last year. So there could be
Speaker 2: some stat padding, you know, to get an extra eighty
Speaker 2: three yards laid and touchdown, you know, get an extra
Speaker 2: twenty seven yards on a scramble out of bounds, something
Speaker 2: like that. That it makes sense. I don't think they're
Speaker 2: going to be super aggressive with him because of the
Speaker 2: quarterback depth. Like I said earlier, I think he gets
Speaker 2: old entirely possible. But even still, if his efficiency is
Speaker 2: you know, if he's eleven yards per attempt and he's
Speaker 2: you know, throwing touchdown pass is at an impressive clip,
Speaker 2: as long as the right people know that, he should
Speaker 2: be fine. The thing is, Kyler Murray had enough shootouts
Speaker 2: last year that his efficiency and his total numbers covered
Speaker 2: all bases. And hopefully that's the case with Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 2: I hope he has just a crazy good year, and
Speaker 2: I think the remake of this this Clemson the remade
Speaker 2: element of this Clemson defense will help him.
Speaker 1: To your point, though from earlier, eight of the last
Speaker 1: nine Heisman trophies have gone to quarterbacks. Yep, outside Trevor
Speaker 1: Lawrence and two a tongue of II loa tonge, you're
Speaker 1: looking at guys like Jalen Hurts. I don't know if
Speaker 1: he's a Heisman caliber quarterback, but.
Speaker 2: He's in a Heisman situation.
Speaker 1: He's in a Heisman situation. I still feel better about
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. You're looking at Jake from who's a very
Speaker 1: good quarterback in his own right, but probably won't have
Speaker 1: the stats of either Trevor Lawrence or Tua right, and
Speaker 1: then outside maybe Sam Ellnger or Boy or Justin hurt
Speaker 1: Herbert your boy. It ain't going to Ian Book, doug Hey,
Speaker 1: Khalil Tate's still around. Khalil Tate's still around. We got
Speaker 1: some names on here that are interesting, but I don't
Speaker 1: think any rise to that level. So give me Trevor
Speaker 1: Lawrence three and a half to one.
Speaker 2: God so boring, I'm looking. I'm gonna give you another
Speaker 2: name just because got it. Kelly Bryan at Maszoo. I
Speaker 2: don't really fully see it. No, with that Ian Book now.
Speaker 1: I really wanted to go Adrian Martinez. The problem with
Speaker 1: Adrian Martinez, though, is that Nebraska would need to be
Speaker 1: at least something of a contender to get real consideration
Speaker 1: for Amart and I don't see that happening.
Speaker 2: That's tough. Well, I mean, the defense could be kind
Speaker 2: of a disaster, but which would mean a lot of
Speaker 2: like fifty to forty seven type games, I guess, but
Speaker 2: that would require the other Big Ten team to score
Speaker 2: them many points. Jonathan Taylor. I think there's decent value
Speaker 2: if the quarterbacks are all sort of mushed together and
Speaker 2: they're all pretty good, but nobody is a spark Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 2: If he goes for over two thousand yards or and
Speaker 2: does something. I mean he's not in the return game,
Speaker 2: but if he is, that's sort of like, yeah, Derek
Speaker 2: Henry candidate, where this's just not a good quarterback year,
Speaker 2: seeing Wisconsin's pretty good and he just goes for twenty
Speaker 2: three fifty.
Speaker 1: If I could get like ten to one odds fifteen
Speaker 1: to one odds on Rondale Moore going to New York
Speaker 1: being partner the ceremony, yeah, that is a bet that
Speaker 1: might interest me. But at thirty three to one to
Speaker 1: win it with all the AMMO in front of him,
Speaker 1: it ain't happening.
Speaker 2: I saw Notre Dame and I think it's nine and
Speaker 2: a half right over under win total. Yes, how did
Speaker 2: you feel about that? Because it was interesting to me
Speaker 2: because I, on one hand, I feel like they are
Speaker 2: built to They've had so much regular season success, but
Speaker 2: they lose what the premier dude at every level on
Speaker 2: their defense. They lose what Julian Love and Drew Tranquill
Speaker 2: and Jerry Tillery like big, big deal names for Notre
Speaker 2: Dame's defense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking at the schedule now. Yeah, the Georgia
Speaker 1: game terrifies me, as a Michigan game on the road
Speaker 1: terrifies me. And Stanford on the road last game of
Speaker 1: the year should concern every Notre Dame Fame because they
Speaker 1: always yeah, yeah, when it's in pala Azto, for sure,
Speaker 1: they always sleeves that freaking game. So this is not
Speaker 1: the schedule we saw last year. This is a much
Speaker 1: more difficult schedule. The road tilts at Michigan and Georgia
Speaker 1: are going to be bloodbass. Plus you've got a game
Speaker 1: in there against usc m H. You got a game
Speaker 1: in there against Virginia Tech. I don't know if Virginia
Speaker 1: Tech's gonna look like this.
Speaker 2: Are they going to start Braxton Burmeister? Is that what
Speaker 2: I am understanding at this moment.
Speaker 1: I hope not, But I would enjoy saying the name again.
Speaker 2: I would love if he's just awesome. That'd be such
Speaker 2: a cool story. Maybe just Oregon just wasn't for him,
Speaker 2: and he's just he finds himself in Blacksburg.
Speaker 1: Who knows there's a sneaky Virginia game in here nine
Speaker 1: and a half right now.
Speaker 2: Oh man, that Virginia game. If Notre Dame beats Georgia
Speaker 2: in Athens losing a.
Speaker 1: Virginia huge letdown game, I would be inclined to say
Speaker 1: nine to three at this point. I would not want
Speaker 1: to touch.
Speaker 2: That slight under.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would not want to go over nine and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: So Georgia, Michigan, Stanford. Yeah, they've got BC the week
Speaker 2: after Navy, which is your other traditional big fear game,
Speaker 2: so no week off there. I was looking at Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: Wisconsin's plus money at home. I believe they're at home
Speaker 2: against Michigan this year, and that is after Michigan plays Army.
Speaker 2: But Michigan has a bye week. So that's the only
Speaker 2: reason I didn't go with that. All right, So here's
Speaker 2: what we got.
Speaker 1: You've got stem Melinger at sixteen to one to win
Speaker 1: the Heisman, Nebraska under eight wins USC over seven and
Speaker 1: a half, Auburn plus nine against Georgia. Penn stayed at
Speaker 1: home plus four and a half against Michigan LSU under
Speaker 1: nine wins, and then to close it out your dogs
Speaker 1: at seven to one to win the national championship. For me,
Speaker 1: I've got Oklahoma State over the win totally six wins.
Speaker 1: I've got Clemson over eleven wins. I've got Florida State
Speaker 1: over seven and a half wins, Oregon plus one over
Speaker 1: USC Stanford minus two and a half on the road
Speaker 1: second week of the year over UCF. I've got Arizona
Speaker 1: State also second week of the year plus six at
Speaker 1: Michigan State. And then to close it out, got ballsy,
Speaker 1: but not all that ballsy, going with Trevor Lawrence two
Speaker 1: hundred k three and a half to one to win
Speaker 1: the Heisman Trophy.
Speaker 2: Not balls at all. You went with the favorite, not
Speaker 2: balls at all. Can I tell you something that has
Speaker 2: been buzzing me for weeks please, and it's solid verbal related.
Speaker 2: Before we got I do it, you did not do
Speaker 2: it at all. I neglected to include something on our
Speaker 2: Hot and Bothered episode. Yes that every time I think
Speaker 2: about it, because there's a file on my computer. We
Speaker 2: don't need to play the file. But our Hot and
Speaker 2: Bothered episode was basically game things, something that happens. Sorry,
Speaker 2: thank you. So that's great game things that we just
Speaker 2: get excited about. We just like it could be happening
Speaker 2: in any game. And if it happens, whether it's you know,
Speaker 2: a defensive back celebrating after giving up a twenty three
Speaker 2: yard huge pass but he has a huge hit, that's
Speaker 2: just like, it's so fun and ridiculous. How can you
Speaker 2: not love it? Some of them are genuine, some of
Speaker 2: them are sort of petty, like that mine is genuine.
Speaker 2: And I forgot to mention when a team has fourth
Speaker 2: in inches in an enormous moment and they line up
Speaker 2: in some sort of jumbo package, like they have two
Speaker 2: defensive linemen in as fullbacks whatever, and they're just going
Speaker 2: to do everything possible to get those you know, that
Speaker 2: foot and a half whatever it is, and they do.
Speaker 2: They play action and somebody's wide open behind the defense's
Speaker 2: cover zero or something, and it goes for like a
Speaker 2: seventy one yard play, the James Brown play. Do you
Speaker 2: remember this?
Speaker 1: Yes?
Speaker 2: And the Big twelve Championship ever, way way back when
Speaker 2: was so so damn great that I went back and
Speaker 2: watched the clip a million and a half times and
Speaker 2: that to me when a team just has giant, giant
Speaker 2: kohones in a spot like that. Sometimes the naked bootleg,
Speaker 2: that's great, like when Alex Smith did it against I
Speaker 2: think it was the Saints in the playoffs in the NFL.
Speaker 2: That's pretty great. But that little pass, that little flick
Speaker 2: when it looks like they're just going to throw ten
Speaker 2: thousand rhinos at the line of scrimmage. Yeah, that's my
Speaker 2: favorite thing. That's my favorite favorite thing. And I forgot
Speaker 2: to mention that during the show, and I wanted to
Speaker 2: make sure everybody knew just how hot and bothered that
Speaker 2: made me think it was against Nebraska, right.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, I also have one. Okay, wow, it's not
Speaker 1: nearly a spicy I've actually been thinking about it for
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks now. M It's an aesthetically pleasing
Speaker 1: thing to me.
Speaker 2: Oh that's fine.
Speaker 1: Tiger Stadium at LSU, yep, they have the numbers every
Speaker 1: five yards instead of ten.
Speaker 2: I do like that.
Speaker 1: It's just different. It's unique.
Speaker 2: I like that a lot. And you know what else
Speaker 2: I like about the field. If we're going to talk
Speaker 2: about the field at Tiger Stadium and Death Valley, I
Speaker 2: love how the middle of the field is that I
Speaker 2: I have the Tiger, but.
Speaker 1: With a little Grady and effect on it. It's nice.
Speaker 2: They blended so well. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I need to know how they do that.
Speaker 2: I have to think about my favorite fields in a
Speaker 2: pretty serious way because I fancy myself a college football
Speaker 2: Do you want to do.
Speaker 1: Our favorite fields episode?
Speaker 2: We could do, God, just just a full episode dedicated
Speaker 2: to aesthetics.
Speaker 1: We could get it.
Speaker 2: Yes, we can get a audience show.
Speaker 1: We could get people on this show that would actually
Speaker 1: that's true a conversation.
Speaker 2: I think LSU has my favorite field, but I'm gonna
Speaker 2: have to give it. I'm not willing to fully commit
Speaker 2: to that, all right. I love I love the every
Speaker 2: five yard things. That's a great call.
Speaker 1: Every five yards. The checkerboard at Neiland Stateiu's pretty cool too,
Speaker 1: But I'm rewatching.
Speaker 2: So as I described they call it role left. This
Speaker 2: huge play, there are two, not one, but two fullbacks
Speaker 2: in for Texas. Every single member of the Nebraska defense
Speaker 2: is within Let's see, the safety is about four yards back,
Speaker 2: so the safety is barely in at a linebacker depth,
Speaker 2: and James Brown rolls out but doesn't even really sell
Speaker 2: the handoff, rolls away from his strong side. And when
Speaker 2: got number eighty two, I apologize for not knowing who
Speaker 2: caught this pass. When he catches it, he's lidecying Nebraska.
Speaker 2: There is not a Nebraska player in the frame. Nebraska
Speaker 2: is the field goal block. They essentially went with the
Speaker 2: NC doble, and you know, good for Nebraska. I think
Speaker 2: they got him down around the five yard line. Ten
Speaker 2: yard line, so great, But man was out a thing.
Speaker 2: Whenever somebody gets lidcied, it's beautiful, all right, Well it
Speaker 2: was bothering me.
Speaker 1: Soliverbo at gmail dot com is as always the email address.
Speaker 1: Don't forget to follow us if you haven't already on Twitter,
Speaker 1: on Facebook, on Instagram, and if you're really into the show,
Speaker 1: really into the show, going out to Reddit dot com
Speaker 1: slash Yeah, slash solid. It is started by it is
Speaker 1: run by our favorite verballers. We pop in from time
Speaker 1: to time to say hello yeah, and of course you
Speaker 1: want to get more info on the forthcoming shirts and
Speaker 1: all the other cool stuff we're cooking up. Going out
Speaker 1: to the site at soliverbal dot com. Fill out the
Speaker 1: form join our newsletter of intent. We promise not to
Speaker 1: spam you, Daniel. That's all I got man all right,
Speaker 1: same here, fun show tonight. Yeah, I will do my
Speaker 1: best to try and list out these picks somewhere. Surely
Speaker 1: no one really cares other than us.
Speaker 2: Let's see who makes more money, though, But let's.
Speaker 1: See who makes more fake, solid verbal dollars For that
Speaker 1: guy over there, my good friend Dan Rubinstein. For myself,
Speaker 1: I'm Tie hilden Brand over here in eastern Pennsylvania. Will
Speaker 1: catch you all next week. In the meantime, stay solid, hey,