WEBVTT - Gabriel: It's the Senate stupid!

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcasting live to New York, Broomberg eleven, Rio to Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>d C, Bloomberg one to Boston, Bloomberg Well Huners to

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<v Speaker 1>one nine and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Bust

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<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance and good morning.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm John Tucker. Along with the Tom Keen. Have Michael

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<v Speaker 1>McKee the opening bell. He has been brought to you

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<v Speaker 1>S and at the startup market Trading Right now regular trading,

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<v Speaker 1>we have stocks higher down johnes a Duster laverage up

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<v Speaker 1>for forty two points, a rise of two tenths percent.

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<v Speaker 1>SMP five at up four then as the Composite Index

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<v Speaker 1>eleven points higher. That's up two tenths of upper cent

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<v Speaker 1>stocks higher following a four day decline that sent the

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<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred to a three week law. That's all,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, before the outcome of the Federals policy meeting

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<v Speaker 1>this afternoon, and among the stocks moving, Twitter among the

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<v Speaker 1>most active. That's a rising about two percent. Mark andres

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<v Speaker 1>and I venture capital firm, and reason Horwitz said companies

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<v Speaker 1>may consider social media firms for acquisition. Also while look

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<v Speaker 1>at Whole Foods losing over two percent, Regulators asked it

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<v Speaker 1>to resolve unsanitary conditions at a plant in Massachusetts, the

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<v Speaker 1>age where the agency found that listeria and other serious

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<v Speaker 1>food safety of violations. Once again, the Dow is up

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<v Speaker 1>thirty eight SMP five hundred, up about four points right now.

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<v Speaker 1>We checked the markets for you every ten minutes during

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<v Speaker 1>the trading day. Right here, Bloomberg Radio, Tom and Michael

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<v Speaker 1>John Tucker, thank you so much. We we would talk

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<v Speaker 1>to our next guest. Oh, I don't know block block

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<v Speaker 1>and a half. I think we can talk to him

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<v Speaker 1>for five blocks this morning. Charles Gabriel is a three

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<v Speaker 1>decade veteran of the Washington Wars. Mike, I've never seen

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of weeks like it's been. I assume

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<v Speaker 1>Mr Gabriel is not not either with Capital Alpha Partners.

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<v Speaker 1>Chuck Gabriel, Good morning. Uh Ann Selzer is a hugely

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<v Speaker 1>respected person counting voters and in polling out of Des Moines,

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<v Speaker 1>she does bloom Bird Politics polls. And here's ther quote.

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary Clinton's supporters are more enthusiastic than Mr Trump's. I

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<v Speaker 1>was sort of surprised by that. Where's the level of

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<v Speaker 1>enthusiasm as you look at the Washington meter right now? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a great point. Thanks thanks for having me Tom

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<v Speaker 1>the you know, the we were supposed to have a

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<v Speaker 1>motivation mismatch on behalf of Republicans with the cycle, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's a there's an anger management issue that's

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<v Speaker 1>been forced in confronting both parties. Uh and and so

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<v Speaker 1>to the extent that Mrs Clinton is much more of

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<v Speaker 1>an establishment kennidate, you know, there was there was a

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<v Speaker 1>sense that there was going to be less enthusiasm for her,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think as things have going on, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Mr Trump has had a unique reality TV in your face,

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<v Speaker 1>smash mouth way of of sort of creating, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>interest on the on the part of some of the

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<v Speaker 1>constituencies that have made up to the Obama coalition. And

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's certainly you know, that's now the playbook that

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<v Speaker 1>Hillary Clinton is advancing me while Republicans are defending the Senate.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh and really are you really are apoplectic about losing

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<v Speaker 1>the opportunity to retake the White House with the Trump bids. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the mixture of the burlock sack full of

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<v Speaker 1>kittens that is the Republican Party at this stage and

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<v Speaker 1>the Democrats, you know, really very excited about the way

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<v Speaker 1>uh that you know that Trump is energizing their constituency

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<v Speaker 1>has led to exactly what you're talking about. Kittens. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know, kittens are cute. You might need a different

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<v Speaker 1>animal analogy there. Uh, the bluebird pole Tom's referencing has

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<v Speaker 1>Hillary Clinton up twelve points over Donald Trump. And what

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<v Speaker 1>I thought was interesting in it is that Hillary Clinton

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<v Speaker 1>is up twelve points. And this poll was taken over

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<v Speaker 1>the you know uh to a certain extent, over the

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<v Speaker 1>time period of the Orlando attack. And the theory had

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<v Speaker 1>been that if you had a terrorist attack, and it

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<v Speaker 1>still hasn't been proven to really have any connection to uh,

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<v Speaker 1>to radical Islam, as Donald Trump would say, but um,

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<v Speaker 1>if you had a terrorist attack, then it would benefit him.

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<v Speaker 1>It did not, right, And this is first poll that

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<v Speaker 1>that overlaps the Orlando you know attacks, so it is.

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<v Speaker 1>It is quite interesting. It certainly doesn't match up with

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the other polls. So I'm not I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not suggesting it's a uh, it's an outlier. Will have

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<v Speaker 1>to see and and you know, certainly a part of

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<v Speaker 1>it would also have to reflect a bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>honeymoon bounce, if you will. After Mrs Clinton, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>was names the historical presumptive nominee. Uh. This this, this

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<v Speaker 1>looked like it might be uh convey a tremendous snap

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<v Speaker 1>back advantage to Trump because it disrupted that that narrative

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<v Speaker 1>about the Mrs Clinton's seizing of the nomination, you know, nineties,

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<v Speaker 1>six years after women were given the right to vote.

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<v Speaker 1>And it should be an issue that really would help

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<v Speaker 1>Trump because he's made such a big, a big deal

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<v Speaker 1>about the administration or the president not even being able

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<v Speaker 1>to say radical Islam, you know, the things he's saying,

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<v Speaker 1>uh certainly resonate with what we would call fo planned.

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<v Speaker 1>But he doesn't seem to have gotten anywhere near the

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<v Speaker 1>kind of bounce that he got after San Bernardino and Paris.

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<v Speaker 1>That seems to have moved on and she actually she

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<v Speaker 1>actually pulls better on the issue of who has seen

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<v Speaker 1>best handling a crisis. So it's interesting that actually has

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<v Speaker 1>played more to her strength based on where Trump has

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<v Speaker 1>painted himself into a corner. Your pull your note rather

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<v Speaker 1>is away from falls is a wonderful set of ideas

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<v Speaker 1>on policy and linking it into our electoral process. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you have any confidence that we can create policy however

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<v Speaker 1>November happens. Yeah? Well, I think you know, our our

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<v Speaker 1>group really thinks that the Senate could be really the

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<v Speaker 1>unremarked important issue here. Uh. And I think our frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>our next note that will go out our electional s repport,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're going to title it it's the Senate Stupid,

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<v Speaker 1>because you know, there are number of things that point

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<v Speaker 1>to the notion that Donald Trump could lose. It might

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<v Speaker 1>will be a much closer race than people think. But

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<v Speaker 1>the Republicans you might surprise folks by actually holding onto

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<v Speaker 1>the Senate, you know, particularly if they're able to hold

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<v Speaker 1>on to uh, you know, key seats like in Ohio

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<v Speaker 1>with Rob portmund in New Hampshire with Kelly at very

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<v Speaker 1>very important Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania. All of those candidates

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<v Speaker 1>have been either even or just ahead of their competitors.

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<v Speaker 1>They're they're dancing a little bit because they're being you know,

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<v Speaker 1>hit with the Democratic attacks that they haven't embraced the

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<v Speaker 1>Fine steam bill that would suggest anybody who's being uh

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<v Speaker 1>surveilled or investigated as a potential terrorists shouldn't be able

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<v Speaker 1>to buy guns. Amazingly, Republicans have had to resist that

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<v Speaker 1>because they don't think that gives a due process. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we would, we would sort of suggest that

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<v Speaker 1>the odds of Mrs Clinton winning, perhaps not surprisingly are rising,

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<v Speaker 1>even though it might still be close, but the Republicans

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<v Speaker 1>holding go onto the Senate are are also potentially doing

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<v Speaker 1>better than expected. In that scenario where she wins and

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<v Speaker 1>you get a Republicans retained narrow Republican Senate and House

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<v Speaker 1>is actually very very good for the markets and actually

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<v Speaker 1>very very good if you want legislation. Let's come back

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<v Speaker 1>with Chuck Avriel, Capital Alpha Partners as we lincn UM

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<v Speaker 1>less economics, finance and investment, more policy and what we'll

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<v Speaker 1>see coming forward. Like it's there's such a such a

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<v Speaker 1>not desire but almost need to keep up with the

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<v Speaker 1>tick by tick news of the two candidates. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>it's just social media. You look at the Internet. You go, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>what what Which of these two has given us the

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<v Speaker 1>latest fix of silliness? So well, I don't think there's

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<v Speaker 1>there any question about which one if you're talking about silliness. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's been a remarkable period and it is interesting

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<v Speaker 1>that the public is not responding as we thought they might. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean there there it is. Where are we greed

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<v Speaker 1>on the screen? Futures up thirty The VIX comes in

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<v Speaker 1>from at twenty two level into twenty point to nine

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<v Speaker 1>in a modest point to one point sort of a

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<v Speaker 1>fed day field fed day field. Uh to the market.

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<v Speaker 1>It is at nine on Wall Street. And this hour

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<v Speaker 1>of surveillance is brought to you by Volvo Cars, White Planes.

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<v Speaker 1>Visit Volvo Cars, White Planes dot com. Here's Mickael bar

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<v Speaker 1>with news headlines. Mind Tom, thank you very much. The

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<v Speaker 1>House Oversight and Government Reform Committee plans to vote today

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<v Speaker 1>on whether to sense your inter Internal Revenue Service Commissioner

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<v Speaker 1>John Coskinen. Republicans claimed coscon In obstructed an investigation into

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<v Speaker 1>whether his agency to target a conservative groups seeking tax

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<v Speaker 1>exempt status. It comes before a planned hearing next week

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<v Speaker 1>by the House Judiciary Committee about a resolution to impeach Koskinen.

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<v Speaker 1>The city of Orlando, Florida, is opening a family assistance

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<v Speaker 1>center for the friends and relatives the victims who were

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<v Speaker 1>killed or wounded in Sunday's mass shooting. May Every Buddy

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<v Speaker 1>Dyer says that will be offering an array of services

0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:12.680
<v Speaker 1>at Camping World Stadium, Child and Family services. We have counseling, grief, counseling, crime,

0:10:12.800 --> 0:10:19.280
<v Speaker 1>victims services, lodging, funeral services, ground transportation. Tomorrow, President Obama

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<v Speaker 1>will head to Orlando to pay his respects to the

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<v Speaker 1>victims who were killed and fifty three others that were wounded.

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<v Speaker 1>The latest Bloomberg poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a

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<v Speaker 1>twelve point lead over Republican arrival Donald Trump. Global News

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news bureaus around

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<v Speaker 1>the world. I'm Michael Barr time, Michael, thanks so much.

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<v Speaker 1>Gold five ounce make their twelve eighties six a oouns

0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:47.520
<v Speaker 1>flat for the day, But what a run Gold has

0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:52.320
<v Speaker 1>had almost level. Don't forget our Friend Day coverage one

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<v Speaker 1>PM this afternoon with Scarlet Food. This is Bloomberg's surveillance.

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0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:48.880
<v Speaker 1>Where's things Stocks higher in the early going after declines

0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:52.760
<v Speaker 1>to the last four sessions. Investors positioning ahead of the

0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:55.720
<v Speaker 1>FED decision this afternoon. Doesn't seem like anything that's gonna

0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:57.679
<v Speaker 1>happen at that meeting, which actually could be taken as

0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:01.200
<v Speaker 1>a positive. People also keeping an eye on bregsit decision

0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:04.720
<v Speaker 1>that is scheduled for next week. I had the economic

0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:08.360
<v Speaker 1>data apps today, data showing the producer price index gained

0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:11.000
<v Speaker 1>four tents of a percent. That was more than Fourecast,

0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:15.320
<v Speaker 1>but a factory production that felt more than projected. For

0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:17.520
<v Speaker 1>the month of May, we have the down Jones and

0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:20.600
<v Speaker 1>Dustrial average of forty five points that's up three tents

0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:23.960
<v Speaker 1>p percent at seventeen thousand, seven hundred and twenty. The

0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:26.960
<v Speaker 1>SMB five hundred six points higher, that's up three tents

0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:30.360
<v Speaker 1>at two thousand eighty one. Has the Composite index four

0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:33.480
<v Speaker 1>team points higher. That's up three tents at forty eight

0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:36.800
<v Speaker 1>of fifty seven Who checked the markets for you every

0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:40.480
<v Speaker 1>fifteen minutes during the trading day right here on Bloomberg Radio,

0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:45.640
<v Speaker 1>and Michael and Tom Jen Tucker, thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>Appreciate that. Michael, you want to my greatest factor, Mr

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<v Speaker 1>Gambriel when you want Yeah, well he's a uh you

0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:54.680
<v Speaker 1>got check Abriel Courser in the political covernce for Capital

0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:57.880
<v Speaker 1>Alpha Partners didn't doing this for thirty two years, still

0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:02.319
<v Speaker 1>doing it and maybe you need time off. Maybe he

0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:04.960
<v Speaker 1>had he had to stay around for this election. Ye.

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<v Speaker 1>There are some headlines crossing here that bring us back

0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:11.559
<v Speaker 1>to what you were talking about earlier and in the

0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:14.839
<v Speaker 1>issue about the Senate. Harry Reid is on the Senate

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<v Speaker 1>floor now saying Democrats are gonna push gun control at

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<v Speaker 1>every opportunity. Is there any chance they can make an

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<v Speaker 1>issue of this. I realized the numbers are against them

0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:27.760
<v Speaker 1>and trying to get anything through both houses of Congress.

0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 1>But can it become a political issue in the fall? Uh?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, doubtfully that would work to the advantage Mike

0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 1>of of the Democrats, because again, the polls in the

0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.560
<v Speaker 1>in the public, you know, still support gun control. It's

0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:46.760
<v Speaker 1>made to seem kind of silly that that Republicans is

0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:51.800
<v Speaker 1>being supportive of uh, you know, of gun rights, just

0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 1>refused to take any losses. So um. And but they

0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:57.680
<v Speaker 1>do still control the Senate. They still you know, the

0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:00.960
<v Speaker 1>rules of the Senate are are are such that Harry

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 1>Reid and the Democratic Minority. Uh, they can you know,

0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 1>try to either disrupt debate. They can they can try

0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 1>to add amendments to appropriations bills that the Senate sort

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.400
<v Speaker 1>of working its way through, but aren't must pass bills

0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:19.160
<v Speaker 1>because ultimately we're gonna fund the government with a continuing resolution. Uh,

0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:22.080
<v Speaker 1>they're just kind of buying time. But but you know,

0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:24.920
<v Speaker 1>as we talked about earlier, doing a fairly good job

0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:28.440
<v Speaker 1>of finessing this issue. While Mrs Clinton, you know, frankly

0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:31.760
<v Speaker 1>at least initially has seemed to almost turn it to

0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:37.440
<v Speaker 1>her advantage to the Democrats of any other issues, um

0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.080
<v Speaker 1>that they can use legislatively to try to build a

0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 1>case for a change in Congress, or they've basically given

0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:47.080
<v Speaker 1>the inactivity in Congress along for the ride with whatever

0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:50.640
<v Speaker 1>happens in the presidential race. Well, it's funny, you know,

0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:54.480
<v Speaker 1>Republicans make this very strong point that when Harry Reid

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:58.680
<v Speaker 1>was Majority leader in two thousand, two thousand fourteen, UH,

0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:01.280
<v Speaker 1>they were only offered allow to offer a very small

0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:05.400
<v Speaker 1>number of amendments because he's so ruthlessly controlled the debate.

0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:09.040
<v Speaker 1>He didn't want his in cycle vulnerable incumbents to have

0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:12.760
<v Speaker 1>to take difficult votes Republicans, you know, to the extent

0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.720
<v Speaker 1>that you know, Democrats can make some issues, for instance,

0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:19.000
<v Speaker 1>out of this Orlando issue. It's it's because Republicans now

0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.000
<v Speaker 1>have UH and Mitch McConnell really have had a more

0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:25.480
<v Speaker 1>open process. But but frankly, there's not a lot of

0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:29.040
<v Speaker 1>real live issues that are are capturing you know, voters

0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:31.640
<v Speaker 1>attention right now that are on the Senate floor. Tell

0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:34.360
<v Speaker 1>us the agenda for Speaker Ryan as he staggers to

0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.640
<v Speaker 1>the convention, I mean within the work of the House,

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 1>and I guess his future prospects, what would you suggest,

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:47.200
<v Speaker 1>Speaker Ryan will say and critically not say as he

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:51.080
<v Speaker 1>tries to get to Cleveland one piece. Yeah, it's amazing.

0:15:51.120 --> 0:15:54.000
<v Speaker 1>He it's it's you know, it's just it's such a

0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:58.080
<v Speaker 1>metaphor for this tough position he's inherited because he should

0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:00.720
<v Speaker 1>be doing, frankly, a bit of a victor lab because

0:16:00.720 --> 0:16:03.920
<v Speaker 1>he was able to navigate to Puerto Rico debt release

0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 1>bill through last week, uh, and not even have to

0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:10.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, do so with the minority of Republican voters.

0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 1>So that was frankly a huge triumph. That bill will

0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:16.600
<v Speaker 1>pass in the Senate, you know, by July one, and

0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:21.720
<v Speaker 1>we'll move on. He has a lot of Muslim minority

0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:25.280
<v Speaker 1>voters up in the Upper Midwest, up in Wisconsin, in

0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:27.720
<v Speaker 1>his states, so he has to be very careful on

0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:31.960
<v Speaker 1>this issue and be very judicious. So he's definitely tap

0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:36.720
<v Speaker 1>dancing to try to help his his you know, his party,

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:40.760
<v Speaker 1>his his caucus you know, have the ability to distance

0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:45.280
<v Speaker 1>themselves somewhat from Trump without you know, disavowing Trump as

0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:47.920
<v Speaker 1>the candidate. So it's he's he's done a good job

0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:50.640
<v Speaker 1>so far, but it's you know the fact that with

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:53.640
<v Speaker 1>each one of these episodes where an advantage is to

0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.680
<v Speaker 1>his turn to sort of a mixed if not disadvantaged

0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:59.280
<v Speaker 1>by Trump. You know, the bloom has come off the

0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.400
<v Speaker 1>rose and the party is really you wonder, Mike, how

0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:06.000
<v Speaker 1>many more episodes? I don't have any anything to add.

0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:11.959
<v Speaker 1>I wonder, Chuck, is it likely that we get you know,

0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.080
<v Speaker 1>presuming this continues, and we have no reason to think

0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:18.480
<v Speaker 1>it won't that the Republicans get to a point where

0:17:18.480 --> 0:17:22.480
<v Speaker 1>they are better off ditching Trump. Well, I I think

0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:24.640
<v Speaker 1>we might just sort of have a new equilibrium emerge,

0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, going into and out of the convention where

0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:29.800
<v Speaker 1>and this is this could be an incredible freak show convention.

0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:31.520
<v Speaker 1>So this will be one of the more interesting ones

0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:34.760
<v Speaker 1>that we've seen. And of course it's in Ohio, which

0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.399
<v Speaker 1>is very key because if if because I was as

0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:40.440
<v Speaker 1>I was saying earlier, it could be that all the

0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:44.120
<v Speaker 1>money on the conservative side, including in the corporate community,

0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:47.360
<v Speaker 1>really does flow not the Donald Trump and the presidential campaign,

0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:51.359
<v Speaker 1>which often sucks the oxygen, the financial oxygen out of

0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:55.680
<v Speaker 1>the battlefield. Instead it could go to keeping Republicans Senate.

0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.359
<v Speaker 1>That could actually be helpful. If Hillary Clinton looks like

0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:01.359
<v Speaker 1>she's going to win big, that could actually be helpful

0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:03.479
<v Speaker 1>because you know, you don't have as much turnout as

0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:05.000
<v Speaker 1>as you think. So there are a number of things

0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:08.040
<v Speaker 1>that could help Republicans Senate and and one of the

0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:12.400
<v Speaker 1>most important races is in Ohio with with Rob Portman.

0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:14.879
<v Speaker 1>So but but I but I think that you know,

0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.919
<v Speaker 1>the randomness of Donald Trump, the fact that he's winning

0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:22.159
<v Speaker 1>it is going to lead increasingly, I think to a

0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:28.000
<v Speaker 1>focus on a fallback strategy of focusing resources and energy

0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:32.119
<v Speaker 1>on keeping the Senate and and and you know, and

0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:35.600
<v Speaker 1>holding losses in the House to a minimum. And we'll

0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:37.639
<v Speaker 1>see how that goes. It's been very difficult in the

0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:43.520
<v Speaker 1>past for candidates to uh distance themselves from a you know,

0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:46.600
<v Speaker 1>from a presidential ticket that's that's going down. But it's

0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:48.359
<v Speaker 1>going to be we we still think it's going to

0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:51.600
<v Speaker 1>be closer than people expect, just because Mrs Clinton still

0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:54.640
<v Speaker 1>has their issues and this we still have several months

0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:56.880
<v Speaker 1>ago obviously told November Mike, I just want to point

0:18:56.880 --> 0:19:00.560
<v Speaker 1>out fractionally the German tenure yields move negatively and I

0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.560
<v Speaker 1>don't want to overdo that, but we had a higher

0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:07.240
<v Speaker 1>yield on it, and that's reverse itself. You're fractually, Chuck,

0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:10.159
<v Speaker 1>what do you tell your investors, the investors who are

0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 1>your clients? Um to do at this point? I mean,

0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:19.639
<v Speaker 1>what's your advice? Well? What near term? We've just warned that, um,

0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:24.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, risks to you know of a Trump victory

0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:27.800
<v Speaker 1>or you know, a sharp diversion from what we think

0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:31.399
<v Speaker 1>is the conventional wisdom of conventional forecast is that Clinton

0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:35.280
<v Speaker 1>will win, probably take along a Democratic Senate. You know,

0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:37.720
<v Speaker 1>when when Trump seemed to be doing fairly well a

0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:40.399
<v Speaker 1>month ago and Poles had him either up slightly or

0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:42.560
<v Speaker 1>down a couple of points, we thought the risk of

0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:46.600
<v Speaker 1>the forecast might be instead of a wipeout, that instead

0:19:46.640 --> 0:19:48.840
<v Speaker 1>that you know, Trump could actually win, or republics that

0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:52.000
<v Speaker 1>keep the Senate. Now I think they're concerns about a

0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:55.400
<v Speaker 1>wipeout again. So uh, and just the randomness of miss

0:19:56.000 --> 0:19:59.919
<v Speaker 1>Trump's comments, and now the re emergence of terrorism, you know,

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.159
<v Speaker 1>with a with a Washington debate in full flower, you

0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.879
<v Speaker 1>know this this this will add perhaps another brick and

0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:09.760
<v Speaker 1>a wall of worry that seems to have emerged here

0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.240
<v Speaker 1>in June over the Brexit, you know, over the Fed

0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:17.040
<v Speaker 1>the dot plot numbers that will we may see by tomorrow.

0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:19.000
<v Speaker 1>So that's what we've been warning that in your term

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:22.120
<v Speaker 1>that you know, Washington's uh, you know, maybe we'll add

0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:24.080
<v Speaker 1>to that. We don't think it will drive that because

0:20:24.119 --> 0:20:26.680
<v Speaker 1>we think people assume that Clinton will win. That that's

0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:29.679
<v Speaker 1>that's shown in the polls, uh, and that we assume

0:20:29.760 --> 0:20:31.679
<v Speaker 1>that even if Trump were to win, you know, he

0:20:31.720 --> 0:20:34.040
<v Speaker 1>would moderate. But then beyond that, we just have a

0:20:34.119 --> 0:20:37.879
<v Speaker 1>number of analyzes about red stocks and blue stocks, and

0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:40.000
<v Speaker 1>that's been fairly lopsided for a long time because the

0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:43.720
<v Speaker 1>Democratic Redttoria and Charles Gabriel is with Capital Alpha Partners.

0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:45.639
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. A little long there, folks, but

0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:50.480
<v Speaker 1>the political discourse is such somehow, I think, Mike, I'm

0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:52.680
<v Speaker 1>not sure how much we'll do with this. I really

0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:55.359
<v Speaker 1>can't say how much we'll do with this, but it

0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:57.840
<v Speaker 1>has been amazing. Was interesting to talk to Megan Murphy,

0:20:58.359 --> 0:21:01.159
<v Speaker 1>particularly when I pronounced their name rectly this morning. She

0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:06.199
<v Speaker 1>would like that, yeah, about um Mr Trump banning the

0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:10.120
<v Speaker 1>Washington Post, that was that was for those of you worldwide.

0:21:10.359 --> 0:21:13.080
<v Speaker 1>That was a bit of an uproar among media. Well,

0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:16.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, I would just say that it is It

0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:20.280
<v Speaker 1>is our desire, given our show, to get to what

0:21:20.400 --> 0:21:22.440
<v Speaker 1>Mr Gabriel was talking about, the red stocks in the

0:21:22.440 --> 0:21:24.960
<v Speaker 1>blue stocks, who's going to benefit? What you should do,

0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:27.679
<v Speaker 1>what you should think about. But there's so much noise

0:21:27.760 --> 0:21:30.239
<v Speaker 1>between and you can't you can't figure it out. And

0:21:30.240 --> 0:21:33.000
<v Speaker 1>I think you're your phrase and what to think about

0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:36.480
<v Speaker 1>is important. It's not only in this world we live

0:21:36.520 --> 0:21:38.359
<v Speaker 1>in now what to think about it, but it's what

0:21:38.560 --> 0:21:41.720
<v Speaker 1>to push aside. And so when we talked to Chuck

0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:47.760
<v Speaker 1>Gabriel and Greg Villier and Megan Murphy and others, maybe

0:21:47.760 --> 0:21:49.679
<v Speaker 1>they help us say I don't have to read that

0:21:49.760 --> 0:21:53.240
<v Speaker 1>or I don't have to think about that versus what matters.

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 1>And you know again, I think the path is speaker

0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:57.960
<v Speaker 1>Ryan here. In the coming days will be interesting for

0:21:58.720 --> 0:22:01.840
<v Speaker 1>not only supporters of to trumpet supporters of Mrs Clinton

0:22:03.040 --> 0:22:05.320
<v Speaker 1>to think about today the fact are you going to

0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:07.639
<v Speaker 1>get a nap in before one year? I've got some

0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:10.879
<v Speaker 1>more broadcasting to Yeah. I think the surveillance nap is

0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:15.000
<v Speaker 1>out the door today, very good cause and that causes

0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:18.840
<v Speaker 1>scarlet food, which is a good thing. One pm this afternoon,

0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:23.360
<v Speaker 1>we will be with Scarlet Food with Ellen Zetner, Alan Blinder,

0:22:23.440 --> 0:22:27.600
<v Speaker 1>Richard Clarida and the cast of Worthies. This is Bloomberg's

0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:28.199
<v Speaker 1>surveillance