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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second spot. My goodness, Hello and

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Speaker 2: welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by BETAMGM. I'm

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Speaker 2: your host Sean Zerilla, joined today by Billy Ward. That

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Speaker 2: means it's time for another UFC betting preview. We're here

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Speaker 2: to break down UFC two ninety nine, going live from Miami, Florida,

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Speaker 2: featuring bantam Way title matchup between Sean O'Malley and Cheeto

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Speaker 2: Vera rematch from twenty twenty which Vera took and at

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Speaker 2: very similar odds. But before we get started, the great

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Speaker 2: State of North Carolina is launching sports betting this Monday,

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Speaker 2: March eleventh, so if you're in the tar Heel State,

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Speaker 2: take advantage of the best sign up offers across sportsbook.

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Speaker 2: You can find a link to every one of those

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Speaker 2: offers in the description of this episode, all the North

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Speaker 2: Carolinas in one place. Check out the link in the

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Speaker 2: episode description to make sure to take advantage of those

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Speaker 2: offers if you're betting in North Carolina. Billy, let's talk

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Speaker 2: about the main event.

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Speaker 3: Cheeto Vera.

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Speaker 2: Shan O'Malley ran this back from a few years ago.

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Speaker 2: Cheeto one after first round leg kick led to drop

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Speaker 2: foot for O'Malley. He ended up falling, Cheeto got on top,

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Speaker 2: pounded it out with some elbows. Mally may have even

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Speaker 2: gotten unconscious for a second. Pretty scary moment after that.

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Speaker 2: Cheeto's debated or O'Malley and Cheetoh have debated the quality

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Speaker 2: of that finish, whether Cheeto actually caused the damage that

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Speaker 2: led to that finish. We've seen O'Malley deal with a

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Speaker 2: similar issue in another fight against Ando Shupman Top, where

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Speaker 2: he ended up on bottom in the third round and

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Speaker 2: basically just had a drop foot and couldn't stand on

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Speaker 2: his leg and couldn't get up. So something that's always

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Speaker 2: going to pop up in Shawn O'Malley fights. Have to

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Speaker 2: be concerned about that potentially popping up again in terms

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Speaker 2: of how this fight plays out. In terms of how

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Speaker 2: this matchup plays out. I bet Cheetoh the first time

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Speaker 2: at around this price plus two twenty five. Interested in

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Speaker 2: betting him again, but I actually think you're going to

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Speaker 2: get a better price live that he will pre fight.

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Speaker 2: If you're betting a pre fight, I like Cheeto inside

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Speaker 2: the distance about four to one projected that closer to

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Speaker 2: three to one. I like Cheeto in the finish only

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Speaker 2: market at plus one forty little tip there getting plus

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Speaker 2: one forty domestically the offshore market for that prop sitting

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Speaker 2: minus one thirty five in favor of Cheetoh. I think

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Speaker 2: he should be favored in the finish only market, and

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Speaker 2: I think getting plus money on Cheeto to be the

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Speaker 2: one that finish the fight and you push if that

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Speaker 2: fight goes to a decision. I think that's the best

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Speaker 2: way to play this fight. But I also like Cheetoh

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Speaker 2: live quite a bit, and I know Billy likes that

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Speaker 2: as well. Live after round one, live after round two.

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Speaker 2: Cheeto is a notoriously slow starter, and o'll Mattley is

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Speaker 2: actually a pretty quick starter. This is more so about

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Speaker 2: Cheetoh starting slow, especially in his five round fights. His

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Speaker 2: past three main events, he's been outstruck one hundred and

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Speaker 2: ten to forty across the first round. Likes to start slow,

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Speaker 2: keep a high guard, get his reads. He's not going

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Speaker 2: to absorb a lot of damage, but in terms of

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Speaker 2: the optics for the judges, it's going to look like

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Speaker 2: he's getting double or tripled up in terms of strikes

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Speaker 2: he's going to keep those gloves up. O'Malley's going to

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Speaker 2: bounce a lot of punches off of those gloves, but

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Speaker 2: very similar to the Brandon Royvel Brandon Marino fight in

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Speaker 2: Mexico City, that output, even if it's bouncing off the gloves,

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Speaker 2: is still going to favor the guy throwing more So.

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Speaker 2: I think O'Malley pulls ahead in the first round pretty

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Speaker 2: consistently wins that first round of probably an eighty or

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Speaker 2: ninety percent clip. That second round should become a little

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Speaker 2: bit closer as Cheeto opens up, probably make that round

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Speaker 2: about sixty to forty in favor of O'Malley, and then

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Speaker 2: by the third round, I think things become much closer

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Speaker 2: to fifty to fifty, if not outright favor Cheeto. Down

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Speaker 2: this stretch probably the most important factor in this fight.

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Speaker 2: Cheeto's been five rounds on multiplications, and his style gets

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Speaker 2: better over the course of five rounds. He really picks

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Speaker 2: things up in the fourth and fifth round and becomes

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Speaker 2: much more daterous his great cardio and tremendous or ability,

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Speaker 2: and I expect him to survive to the fifth round

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Speaker 2: unless he finishes O'Malley first. On the other end of

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Speaker 2: the spectrum. O'Malley a bit newtly, smaller legs, definitely think

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Speaker 2: those legs can get kicked again, that he can get

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Speaker 2: hurt there, and he's also never proven his cardio beyond

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Speaker 2: the fifteen minute mark. He looked really good in the

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Speaker 2: third round against piotr Gan, but there's other fights where

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Speaker 2: he's slowing down, and it's very possible that Cheeto, you know,

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Speaker 2: as he's accelerating into the later rounds, if O'Malley is

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Speaker 2: slowing down just the touch, it may really favor Cheeto

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Speaker 2: later on in this fight. So Cheetah live, I think

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Speaker 2: the best approach Cheetoh finish only I think the other

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Speaker 2: best approach for this fight, and inside the distance as

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Speaker 2: well the three ways I'm betting it. O'Malley should win

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Speaker 2: the early minutes. I think Cheetah rallies and makes this

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Speaker 2: one close and interesting. Late would probably lean to O'Malley

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Speaker 2: taking that decision just because of the early winnute winning upside,

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Speaker 2: and that's why I really like that finish only market

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Speaker 2: for Cheeto in this fight. But could absolutely finish things

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Speaker 2: early in the fight as he did in the last matchup.

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Speaker 2: And Billy, you're taking Cheetah on the money line but

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Speaker 2: also targeting the live angle.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a few parts of this. I took Cheeto

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Speaker 4: at plus two to forty earlier in the week. I

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Speaker 4: had that in my luck ratings. I'm kind of torn, honestly,

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Speaker 4: if I didn't get that line whether I would still

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Speaker 4: play the plus two twenty or just wait for the

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Speaker 4: live because the live feels just so incredibly obvious here.

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Speaker 4: But one thing you mentioned is, you know they've gone

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Speaker 4: back and forth debating that injury and whether that was

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Speaker 4: a legitimate win or whether it was something that came in.

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Speaker 5: You could kind of do the same thing about all.

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Speaker 4: Of O'Malley's last three fights, right, So he had the

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Speaker 4: ipoke against Pedro Muno's, but Muno's won that was winning

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Speaker 4: the first round on two out of three judges. When

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Speaker 4: that fight got stopped, Puder Yan O'Malley won a split decision,

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Speaker 4: like pretty widely regarded as a very bad decision. You know,

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Speaker 4: you check out MMADE decisions any of those resources. Kind

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Speaker 4: of everyone says that that should have gone to Yan

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Speaker 4: and then al jam and Sterling. He knocked him out,

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Speaker 4: So I'm not saying he didn't finish that fight, but

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Speaker 4: you know, Sterling was saying he wasn't ready to fight,

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Speaker 4: He didn't want to take the fight at that date.

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Speaker 5: It wasn't a good time for him. He got kind

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Speaker 5: of forced into it.

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Speaker 4: You can kind of go through his record and say, like,

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Speaker 4: who is he really beaten at a high level that

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Speaker 4: there's not some major question marks about So that that's

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Speaker 4: what initially put me on cheeto.

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Speaker 5: And yeah, on top of that.

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Speaker 4: Just the live is so so obvious with the way

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Speaker 4: both these guys fight. O'Malley might have good cardio, kind

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Speaker 4: of a leaner guy, doesn't burn out a ton of energy.

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Speaker 5: We don't know.

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Speaker 4: I'm kind of inclined to believe, just as a general

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Speaker 4: principle in MMA, if we're saying that xaxax is a

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Speaker 4: question mark and of guy's resume that it's probably a

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Speaker 4: question mark because he avoids it because he's not that

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Speaker 4: great at it. That's not always going to be right.

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Speaker 4: And we're going to talk about some fighters where we

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Speaker 4: think that's wrong later on. But you know, until I'm

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Speaker 4: proven wrong, I'm going to believe that it's probably not

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Speaker 4: a strong suit for him at the very least. So, yeah,

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Speaker 4: you're almost certainly going to get a better price on

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Speaker 4: Cheetoh after the first round. I got no problem with

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Speaker 4: the plus two twenty, no problem with any of the

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Speaker 4: stuff you said, but definitely live betting.

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Speaker 5: It's the ideal way to play this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that the UC basically protected Sean O'Malley

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Speaker 2: for being able to prove that cardio. You know, the

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Speaker 2: first main event slot that they gave him, I believe

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Speaker 2: was the Sterling fight, and that was the first five

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Speaker 2: round fight that they actually booked him for. So he

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Speaker 2: finished that fight credit to him. He was also losing

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Speaker 2: that first round, and you know, he wasn't given the

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Speaker 2: chance to prove his cardio because aside from the Pewterian fight,

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Speaker 2: which he lost the majority of that fight. Maybe there's

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Speaker 2: a you know, an argument that he edged out two

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Speaker 2: of the rounds, but if you take the majority of

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Speaker 2: the fight, if you score it under Pride rules, he

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Speaker 2: probably loses that fight. You know, he's had an awkward

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Speaker 2: run and I do think this is a good matchup

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Speaker 2: for him, just because of Cheetoh's willingness to seed minutes.

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Speaker 2: Cheeto isn't this He hits hard. He's probably one of

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Speaker 2: the harder hitters or more dangerous strikers that O'Malley's face.

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Speaker 2: It's not like he's this vicious, murderous power puncher. It's

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Speaker 2: probably going to end up in a close decision. The

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Speaker 2: fight is essentially lined to reach a decision. We'll see

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Speaker 2: if he gets there, but I think if it does,

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Speaker 2: it's probably has a chance of being a split, and

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Speaker 2: the third round may be super determinative of you know,

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Speaker 2: the momentum swing and how that third round is scored,

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Speaker 2: maybe determinative of the winner if it does end up

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Speaker 2: reaching the scorecards. There is another five round fight on

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Speaker 2: this car, though, and another fight involving a favorite who

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Speaker 2: has not proven his cardio across twenty five minutes, Ben

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Speaker 2: La Stany podcast favorite man oh Man, there was once

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Speaker 2: upon a time we were getting plus two sixty on

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Speaker 2: Ben La Saint Deny Gabrielle Bonfieme. Now you're basically getting

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Speaker 2: a similar price of Dustin Poorier against or against the

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Speaker 2: ben Roi Stani. I do like st Deinni in this fight.

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Speaker 2: I don't love the price. I think I can justify

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Speaker 2: laying it even at this number, but I don't want to.

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Speaker 2: I'd probably prefer the under two and a half here

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Speaker 2: at minus one fifteen. I've seen Santini get steamed, and

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Speaker 2: I've seen the over one and a half rounds gets stemed,

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Speaker 2: and to me, those outcomes aren't necessarily correlated to one another.

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Speaker 2: I would tend to think that a longer fight favors

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Speaker 2: Dustin Poier, who has been five rounds in the past,

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Speaker 2: who looked great in the back end of his fight

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Speaker 2: against Dan Hooker that roughed up early, was down on

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Speaker 2: the scorecards, ended up rallying back and looking like the

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Speaker 2: fresherman down the stretch. Now, the one problem with Poier

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Speaker 2: is he does not face grapplers particularly often. The last

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Speaker 2: grappler he really faced, Michael Chandler, who ended up submitting,

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Speaker 2: was holding him down and controlling him for big portions

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Speaker 2: of that fight until he gassed out and Dustin got

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Speaker 2: the neck and choked him out. But I think he's

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Speaker 2: really struggle with the pace of pressure of Satani. Stani

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Speaker 2: tries to fight like a lightweight Morab debash Phili, throws

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Speaker 2: a big bodykick, enters the pocket, gets in the clinch,

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Speaker 2: and then just starts going to work on you. And

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Speaker 2: even though this guy's only been training MMA for six years,

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Speaker 2: it seems like he has been grappling longer than that.

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Speaker 2: It's in the French Special Forces. I'm sure he was

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Speaker 2: doing some sort of grappling when he was in the military,

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Speaker 2: just because his jiu jitsu and his whole game, the

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Speaker 2: coherence of his game seems to be much more developed

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Speaker 2: than a guy who's only been fighting for six years. Billy,

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Speaker 2: I'm sure you could assess that better than I can.

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Speaker 2: But doesn't have the best hands, has a really good

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Speaker 2: bodykick and uses that bodykick to get in where he

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Speaker 2: wants to in order to start the grappling, and from

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Speaker 2: there he's really tough to get off of you. The pace,

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Speaker 2: the pressure tends to melt his opponents. He's finished every

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Speaker 2: opponent inside the distance. I like him to win this

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Speaker 2: fight inside the distance at minus one fifty. Projected that

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Speaker 2: closer to minus one seventy five minus one eighty, so

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Speaker 2: I think he can justify playing that instead of his

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Speaker 2: money line, and he's got twenty five minutes to get

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Speaker 2: it done. I show a sleigh value out his knockout

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Speaker 2: prop as well, Billy. I know that's a bet that

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Speaker 2: you like for this fight, but I'm probably going with

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Speaker 2: the under two and a half here. At minus one

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Speaker 2: fifteen for my favorite way to play it. As I said,

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Speaker 2: the over one and a half getting juiced up. This

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Speaker 2: pace should be absolutely chaotic, and I think BSc is

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Speaker 2: going to give Pois a lot of opportunities to land

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Speaker 2: boxing as he's coming in and potentially get a lot

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Speaker 2: of opportunities to get Dustin's back and finished with the choke.

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Speaker 2: You like BSc in this fight too, Billy, I do.

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Speaker 4: And you know what really concerned me when I started

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Speaker 4: looking for it. Poyer is coming off a bad knockout.

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Speaker 4: It was seven months ago. I'm not worried about the

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Speaker 4: turnaround time on that knockout specifically. What I am worried

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Speaker 4: about is, you know, he's a lightweight over thirty five,

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Speaker 4: which we always talk about. There's all the stats, had

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Speaker 4: thirty seven professional fights, three knockout losses, a lot of those.

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Speaker 4: You know, even that he won, he took a lot

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Speaker 4: of damage. I don't know that we see Dustin Poye

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Speaker 4: kind of ever recover to what he was following that

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Speaker 4: knockout by Justin Gaegee. Like, I'm not sure that that

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Speaker 4: knockout or that kick would have knocked him out even

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Speaker 4: a few years ago. Is the other factor there, So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I just don't trust his durability at this point. BSD

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Speaker 4: not a great technical striker, but he throws everything hard,

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Speaker 4: especially headkicks with his you know, power leg coming from

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Speaker 4: the rear.

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Speaker 2: I like the.

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Speaker 4: Knockout angle because he can grapple his way into a knockout.

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Speaker 4: Poier is a BJJ black belt, probably not going to

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Speaker 4: be submitted. He's been submitted a couple of times, but

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Speaker 4: he's been submitted by Charles olivera who've beenn Mamranga made

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Speaker 4: off and I don't know, somebody bad like a million

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Speaker 4: years ago when he was starting out that we're going

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Speaker 4: to look past a little bit for the sake of

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Speaker 4: my argument. Bsd's got some good submissions. Obviously, does some grappling,

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Speaker 4: like you pointed out. You know, I trained with some

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Speaker 4: like Marine Corps guys every once in a while, and

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Speaker 4: they come in kind of like blue belt level with

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Speaker 4: the stuff that they learned. I'd imagine French Special Forces

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Speaker 4: as even a step beyond that with their skill set,

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Speaker 4: and then on the other end of.

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Speaker 2: That probably knife fighting and allt jiu jitsu at the

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Speaker 2: same time.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but even that, you're holding the guy down right

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Speaker 4: you want to you want a knife fight a guy

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Speaker 4: from on top of him, not you know, from off

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Speaker 4: your back. So there's something to that, I think. But uh,

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Speaker 4: and then if you don't see that in the first

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Speaker 4: couple of rounds he does some damage. You know, maybe

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Speaker 4: I'm wrong on Poyer's chin. I think it is a

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Speaker 4: good spot to go live on Poier as well.

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Speaker 5: Not only have we not.

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Speaker 4: Seen BSD over an extended period of time, that level

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Speaker 4: of aggression. You know, you called him a lightweight morab

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Speaker 4: carrying all that extra muscle. I can't imagine that holds

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Speaker 4: up well in the fourth and fifth rounds. There's some

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Speaker 4: guys that it does. It kind of defies all logic.

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Speaker 4: They are very few and far between. If he fought

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Speaker 4: a more cautious style, if he fought more like Poier,

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Speaker 4: staying in the pocket boxing kind of conserving his energy,

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Speaker 4: maybe it would hold up. But between his body type

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Speaker 4: and his fighting style, I have a lot of doubts

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Speaker 4: about his cardio. And yeah, your point not the line

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Speaker 4: movement is kind of like negatively correlated places where you

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Speaker 4: can parlay you know, BSD and under whatever round you

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Speaker 4: want to pick Poier and over if you want to

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Speaker 4: do this pre fight. I think there's an angle to

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Speaker 4: that too. I'd rather just wait for the live you

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Speaker 4: know I'm getting. You can get as high as plus

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Speaker 4: three forty on BSD by knockout, which seems longer than

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Speaker 4: it should be to me, And then if you get

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Speaker 4: Poyer coming back live at plus two hundred or something

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Speaker 4: later in the fight, you're kind of good almost every

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Speaker 4: way it goes.

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Speaker 2: Talk about our the night Kevin Holland and Michael Venom

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Speaker 2: Page MVP joining the UFC a bit older than I

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Speaker 2: would have liked to see him come over coming off

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Speaker 2: of a loss to Michael Perry in Barre Knuckle Fighting

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Speaker 2: Championship as well, so absorb some damage with some bare

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Speaker 2: knuckles outside of MMA gloves. And he's complained a little

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Speaker 2: bit about the UFC gloves and not necessarily loving the

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Speaker 2: fit of them, which you know, I think is an

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Speaker 2: interesting factor to consider. Just if you end up grappling

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Speaker 2: like being unfamiliar with the glove, less comfortable with it,

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Speaker 2: maybe you don't have grip strength that you normally would.

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Speaker 2: But Holland, five years younger, has the reach advantage here

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Speaker 2: two inch reach advantage, and he's also the better grappler,

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Speaker 2: and I don't necessarily know if he's going to pursue

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Speaker 2: the grappling, but you still do need to bake it

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Speaker 2: into the handicap, and that makes Holland the justifiable favorite,

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Speaker 2: more output, longer, and also the grappling upside in addition

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Speaker 2: to the youth advantage. Technically, I think Page is a

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Speaker 2: better striker, but Holland just you know, is going to

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Speaker 2: have more output. Ultimately, this probably ends if Holland is

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Speaker 2: sides to strike it out by split decision, and I

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Speaker 2: do like the fight to go to a decision at

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Speaker 2: minus one fifty. I think, you know, Page throws a

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Speaker 2: lot of power behind his shots, but Holland is a

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Speaker 2: pretty durable guy. I think the likeliest way this one

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Speaker 2: finishes is Holland via submission, and I don't know if

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Speaker 2: he's likely to pursue the grappling, so I like this

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Speaker 2: to go to a decision.

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Speaker 3: At minus one fifty.

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Speaker 2: Billy, I know you like a side on the money line,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, I'd take either fight or by decision if

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Speaker 2: I was poking the props or just to fight GTD.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I do like Michael Venham Page here. And there's

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Speaker 4: two parts. Well, A few parts to it. The first

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Speaker 4: is you pointed out Holland should have a grappling advantage.

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Speaker 4: Michael Page doesn't offensively grapple at all. He you know,

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Speaker 4: I'll actually I forget the guy's name, but he thought

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Speaker 4: a you know, four time d one all American got

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Speaker 4: taken down. Yeah, there you go, and he was able

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Speaker 4: to get up almost every time. He wasn't taking a

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Speaker 4: lot of damage. In a perfect world or in the

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Speaker 4: world that I'd like to live in, if you're getting

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Speaker 4: taken down a bunch of times and don't do anything

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Speaker 4: on your feet, you should still loose the round. That

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Speaker 4: has not been what we've seen in the UFC lately.

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Speaker 4: You're almost penalized for takedowns if you don't do enough

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Speaker 4: with it. So that's you know, part one, Part two.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a little bit of UFC bias baked

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Speaker 4: into this line. I have to imagine that people like

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Speaker 4: they just think that everything else is a step below

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Speaker 4: the UFC, and to a degree that's the right angle.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if that necessarily holds up at the

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Speaker 4: high end, especially with someone like MVP. And then the

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Speaker 4: last one though, is just if it were anyone other

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Speaker 4: than Kevin Holland, who had a grappling edge, I'd say, sure,

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Speaker 4: that's worth baking into the line. Kevin Holland frequently has

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Speaker 4: a grappling edge and frequently lets guys up to continue

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Speaker 4: getting beat up, like we saw against Thompson. I think

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Speaker 4: Wonder Boy's actually kind of an interesting comparison for this fight.

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Speaker 4: Both have the traditional martial arts styles, you know, hands low,

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Speaker 4: looking the counter, and react, except Michael Page is like

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Speaker 4: four thousand times more athletic than Stephen Thompson. He's just

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Speaker 4: a faster, quicker, more explosive version of that. So, given

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Speaker 4: how Holland struggled on the feet, given that we know

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Speaker 4: Holland doesn't make good decisions for lack of a better term,

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Speaker 4: and then sneaky one here.

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Speaker 5: This is in Miami.

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Speaker 4: If anyone's out here party in the night before the

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Speaker 4: fight having a good time, it might just be Kevin Holland.

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Speaker 4: It's kind of like the visiting team in the NBA

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Speaker 4: when they go to Miami for the first time all year.

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Speaker 5: You gotta bake that in.

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Speaker 4: I'm mostly kidding on that angle, but like, really, if

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Speaker 4: there's anyone on this card who is going to be not.

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Speaker 5: As focused as they should be.

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Speaker 4: That's probably also Kevin Holland, So slight plus money on MVP.

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Speaker 4: I'm seeing plus one fifteen wouldn't go much beyond that.

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Speaker 4: I do think it's likely enough to go to a decision.

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Speaker 4: I agree with your take. I think MVP's probably got

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Speaker 4: the better odds of stopping it here, just giving his

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Speaker 4: explosive ability, weird kicks and stuff like that. So if

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Speaker 4: you're playing MVP, I'm not playing him by decision because

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Speaker 4: his knockout equity needs to be baked into that line

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Speaker 4: for me to take it. But if you're not convinced

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Speaker 4: by a side, I also agree with that Holland is

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Speaker 4: very durable. Like the only TKO was against Thompson, but

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Speaker 4: that was more because his hand was broken, So don't

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Speaker 4: think that we can necessarily bank on that repeating.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he was.

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Speaker 2: Having a lot of success in that fight against Thompson

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Speaker 2: until he broke his hand. I think it was the

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Speaker 2: big punch he landed in the first round was what

387
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Speaker 2: ultimately broke, and he's sort of welt it away from there.

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00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,040
Speaker 2: He just doesn't shoot takedowns that often, and it seemed

389
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Speaker 2: like if a Thompson fight, they almost had a gentleman's

390
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Speaker 2: agreement that they weren't going to grapple. He would land

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Speaker 2: a takedown to sort of break up the pressure, and

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Speaker 2: then he would let Stephen Thompson up. And there's a

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Speaker 2: chance that he he signed a you know, behind the

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Speaker 2: scenes contract with the UFC here and agreed to strike

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Speaker 2: it out with Paige and not over takedowns. Could be

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Speaker 2: a fun fight to that point.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Like, I think Kevin Holland knows why they made

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Speaker 4: this matchup, right, Like he's not. He's didn't Like, he's like, oh,

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Speaker 4: they brought me in to fight Michael Venham Paige so

400
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Speaker 4: I could put on a wrestling clinic and try to

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00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,159
Speaker 4: hold him against the page for fifteen minutes. That's not

402
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Speaker 4: what he's about. That's not why they made this matchup.

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Speaker 4: I think everyone knows what the score is here. He

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00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 4: could shock me. But like literally, nothing we've ever seen

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Speaker 4: from Kevin Holland would suggest he's all of a sudden

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Speaker 4: going to try to win at any costs rather than

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Speaker 4: be fun and be Kevin Holland.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's a company man.

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Speaker 2: He's getting paid to be entertaining, not to go out

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Speaker 2: and win fights, to go out a title run. So

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Speaker 2: I think Kevin Holland being paid here, knows the moment,

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Speaker 2: knows the debut opponent he's getting. He's not going to

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Speaker 2: be taking down Michael Lenham Page have the crowd in

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Speaker 2: Miami booing and him. Everybody wants the cities to strike

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Speaker 2: it out. He should oblige those intentions.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to our favorite underdogs of the night. Billy,

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Speaker 2: you're going with another main card fight, Gilbert Burns against

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Speaker 2: Jack Della Matt Atlanta. I think we were both on basil.

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Speaker 2: Hefez at a huge price the last time Della Matt

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Speaker 2: Atlanta fought almost cash that ticket. Feel like We've had

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Speaker 2: a number of underdogs recently that were good bets that

429
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 2: ultimately did not cash. Taking another shot against Jack Bella here.

430
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,480
Speaker 4: Well, I will say, you know, not to toot my

431
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 4: own torn too much. I took the plus three and

432
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,840
Speaker 4: a half rounds on Basil, so catch the ticket at

433
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:02,679
Speaker 4: like not quite the same prime. I think it was

434
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 4: like plus eight fifty money line, and I got like

435
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 4: plus three hundred on the spread, but just by virtue

436
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 4: of him winning around. But no, I was thinking about it,

437
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 4: and you know, I'm the guy that does the luck

438
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 4: ratings and looked back at split decisions and weird outcomes

439
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,879
Speaker 4: caused by injury. Then you look back both of jdn's

440
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 4: last two wins or split decisions, one over Kevin holland

441
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,360
Speaker 4: one over Basila Fez. Don't really disagree with any of them,

442
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 4: but it's still telling us he's not just mauling people

443
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 4: on his way to fighting the top ten. It's kind

444
00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 4: of the theme of this card is we have a guy,

445
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 4: you know, back end of the rankings, young guy coming

446
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,359
Speaker 4: up fighting this established title contender. The other ones have

447
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 4: been much more dominant on their run to the top.

448
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 4: I'm count dryld no meta we'll talk about counting BSD.

449
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,880
Speaker 4: You know, those guys have been extremely dominant against lower

450
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,639
Speaker 4: level competition. Jack Dela Madeleine is kind of sneaking by

451
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 4: on some split decisions. And then on the other side,

452
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 4: Gilbert Burns's last loss was against Blah Mohammad. Took that

453
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:57,560
Speaker 4: fight on less than a month and like tore his

454
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 4: shoulder what seemed to be like two minutes into the fight.

455
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 4: So that doesn't really tell us that he couldn't have

456
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 4: won that fight, you know, had he been at full strength,

457
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 4: just kind of like a systems player or whatever. For me,

458
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 4: when you got a guy coming down two split decision

459
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,560
Speaker 4: wins as a favorite, other guy coming in on a

460
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 4: questionable loss as an underdog, feels like I can't not

461
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 4: take that one plus one forty five.

462
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,120
Speaker 2: And Birds's massive grappling upside here, not only in terms

463
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,399
Speaker 2: of finishing the fight getting a submission, but also just

464
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 2: holding Jack down for extended stretches. I really didn't like

465
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 2: the looks from Jack in the Jfes fight, where Hafees

466
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 2: was clearly shooting in and instead of trying to move

467
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 2: away or avoid the takedown, Jack was literally standing his

468
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 2: round and just winging hooks in the center of the cage.

469
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,199
Speaker 2: He was accepting the takedowns now. Gilbert Burns is not

470
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 2: as aggressive pursuing the takedown. Doesn't have the best cardio,

471
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 2: tends to manage it a little bit more so, not

472
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,439
Speaker 2: going to pursue those takedowns as aggressive. He may not

473
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 2: even get them as successfully. I don't think he's the

474
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,920
Speaker 2: best wrestler, but if he does get this fight to

475
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 2: the ground, he may only need one to finish it.

476
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 2: I mean, this guy is one of the best submission

477
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: grapplers in the UFC. Obviously did not look great in

478
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 2: his last fight against Bala Mohammed. I think we can

479
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 2: get him a slight pass for the injuries stand in

480
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 2: that fight, in addition to the short notice. But I

481
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 2: also think he's on the back end of his career

482
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 2: and is declining, whereas Jack Della is the better athlete,

483
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 2: younger and certainly improving.

484
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 3: On the way up.

485
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 2: I like this fight to go under minus one fifty

486
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 2: to the under two and a half rounds. I think

487
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 2: Burns could absolutely land a knockout, you know, threatening a

488
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 2: takedown Jack drops his hands. Burns has huge power, while

489
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: kmorrow Usman could absolutely hurt Jack knock him out if

490
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 2: he gets this fight on the ground. Absolutely think he

491
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 2: can give a submission, but also Burns is not the

492
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 2: most durable guy. Jack is really Chris boxing, so could

493
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 2: definitely see Jack knocking Burns out fairly quickly too. Under

494
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 2: two and a half, I think is an interesting look

495
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 2: here Burns by submission. The other way, I'd probably play it.

496
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 2: In terms of my favorite underdog, I actually have an

497
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 2: underdog for my best bet on this card, So going

498
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 2: to save my quote unquote favorite underdog for later. But

499
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 2: what other underdog I really like? May bet him pre fight?

500
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 2: Definitely going to bet him live. That's Pedro Munoz, this

501
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 2: guy typically underrated by the betting markets. Now similar to

502
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 2: Chido Vera, he is at a disadvantage in terms of

503
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 2: the boxing, and he's probably going to fall behind just

504
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 2: by virtue of not landing as many head strikes as

505
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 2: Kyler Phillips. Kyler Phillips the better athlete, th Muno is

506
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 2: much quicker, but does not have as good of cardio

507
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 2: as Muno's. And also Munos is going to be employing

508
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,679
Speaker 2: more of a nutritional game plan where he's going to

509
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 2: be hammering the legs trying to get Phillips to slow

510
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 2: down later in the fight, potentially having more success in

511
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:29,639
Speaker 2: the second and third round. So I'm a little bit

512
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 2: interested in Muno's prefight, but I actually expect more of

513
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 2: his success to be backloaded here. I like him to

514
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 2: put a nutritional work early and for those dividends to

515
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 2: payoff later. So Pedro Munho is potentially a pre fight bet.

516
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 2: Definitely love him live after round one. Think he could

517
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 2: take the second and third rounds as Phillips is potentially

518
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 2: slowing down Philly.

519
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on Munno's.

520
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was tempted to just play his money line

521
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 4: earlier in the week. I'm not entirely sold on Kyler

522
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 4: Phillips again. Another one, as we've kind of seen Munos

523
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 4: the old vat been near the top of the division.

524
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 4: Kyler Phillips coming up fast, And actually I think more

525
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 4: worried about Kyler Phillips grappling than anything else. And I've

526
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 4: said it before in the past, got made fun of

527
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 4: by our esteam producer Matt Mitchell, but really hard to

528
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 4: keep taking a guy down who doesn't want to be

529
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 4: there and hold him down. So if it looks like

530
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 4: Kyler's selling out for takedowns and burning a lot of energy.

531
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 4: I think that makes a lot of sense on your angle.

532
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 4: I think that I'm not worried about Munnos in the boxing.

533
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 4: I think he should actually probably be at least as

534
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 4: good of a boxer here. I do worry about if

535
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 4: Kyler is able to control him on the ground. But

536
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 4: it's kind of just gonna be a live read for

537
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 4: me on whether it looks like a guest himself out

538
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 4: doing that or got some smooth takedowns and made the

539
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 4: other guy carry his weight the whole round.

540
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 2: We've covered the rest of the main card, done a

541
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 2: pretty good job of it here. There is one fight

542
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 2: that we have not talked about though, Peter Yann against

543
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 2: Songy Dong. Pretty big fight in the Bandam weight division.

544
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 2: Yon former champion song You Dong potential future title contender,

545
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,479
Speaker 2: Yon minus one twenty five, probably getting a discount based

546
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 2: on you know, their past results, fact that Yan is

547
00:23:59,920 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 2: a former champion.

548
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 3: I think he is the better fighter, but this is

549
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 3: still a three.

550
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: Round fight, and Yon, Likeichido Vera, traditionally starts very slow,

551
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 2: gets his reads in the first round, and then eventually

552
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,360
Speaker 2: picks up the pace. To Cheeto's credit, his last fight

553
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 2: he did starts faster was again Pedro Munoz. He started

554
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 2: faster and actually won the first round in all three scorecards.

555
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 2: Curious to see if Yon finally makes that adjustment and

556
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: starts a little bit quicker here. I believe he lost

557
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 2: the first round on two out of three scorecards to

558
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 2: Sean O'Malley. Even though he had some success there, that

559
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 2: round was still closer than it should have been. And

560
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 2: if Jan just lets his hands go a little bit

561
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 2: more in the first round, he probably wins that fight.

562
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 2: So Yan a slow starter. I think I'm kind of

563
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 2: interested in whoever's trailing here live after round one, or

564
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 2: especially if it's a close first round and you can

565
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 2: get somebody a plus money live after round one. I'll

566
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 2: probably take whoever's trailing Between Yan and Ya Doong. I

567
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 2: think this fight probably goes to split decision at a

568
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 2: very high clip. You Dong better power, better athlete, but

569
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 2: Yan just is the better technical fighter, and I think

570
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 2: he's going to land more if shots just may not

571
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 2: look quite as effective to the judges. So I think

572
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 2: this is gonna be one that's very difficult to score.

573
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 2: This was a twenty five minute fight. Would absolutely be

574
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 2: taking Yan HIMNUS one twenty five. I think the margins

575
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 2: for him are just too narrow in three round fights

576
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 2: to cover any sort of favorite price tag in a

577
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 2: fight that should be extremely competitive. Lean to the over

578
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 2: fight to go decision, it's very juiced up. You have

579
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 2: to be about minus two fifty or hired a ortle

580
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,199
Speaker 2: about that. So probably going to end up passing on

581
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: this fight. May livet whoever's down after round one. Billy,

582
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 2: do you have any thoughts on Song Ya Doong and piotr Yan?

583
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 5: Yeah?

584
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 4: I haven't bet this one myself yet, might still get there.

585
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 4: I think Jan is the correct money line side, just

586
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 4: based on the movement against him so much. But his

587
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:47,239
Speaker 4: only four losses in the UFC DQ against al Jo

588
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 4: fighter is probably winning split decision loss against al Jo, debatable,

589
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 4: highly debatable loss against Sean O'Malley also split decision, and

590
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 4: then Mirab does that to everyone like you don't lose

591
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 4: any points for getting dominated on the ground by Miron, right,

592
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 4: So I think he's probably the correct money line side.

593
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 4: I kind of look at it as a fairly binary

594
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 4: early versus late fight here where I think you Dom

595
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 4: needs a knockout or a finish or at least a

596
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 4: huge moment early on less active striker throws with less volume,

597
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 4: far less grappling than from Yan, far less takedowns per round,

598
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 4: but bigger power. So I think you know, as of now,

599
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 4: I would play some combination of Yadong early and Yan late,

600
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,199
Speaker 4: or as you're pointing out in the live markets, I

601
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 4: do think you Doong looks good early. If he has

602
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:34,959
Speaker 4: that big moment, it's going to inflate the line on

603
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 4: Yon tremendously. So that's probably the sharper way as you're

604
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 4: pointing it out. Don't think I would live bat you

605
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 4: dom though, even if he falls behind, because if Yan

606
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 4: starts strong and we know he builds, it's almost like

607
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 4: it's only going to go one direction from where we

608
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 4: see on Yan. So if you got to do it

609
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 4: pre fight Yon decision, you know Yan over a certain

610
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 4: number rounds something like that, or other side song Ya

611
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 4: Doong knockout finish first couple of rounds, something like that.

612
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 4: But yeah, the live angle is probably this like the

613
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 4: third time we're saying this this card, but the live

614
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 4: angle is probably the way to handle this one.

615
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 2: No, I think the only UH scenario in which I

616
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 2: live bet song is is if I think there's a

617
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 2: chance he won the first round and his price blows out,

618
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 2: like if he's plus two hundred after round one and

619
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 2: I'm like, I think there's you know, a chance you

620
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 2: gave it to him if it's a close round.

621
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 3: That's probably the only scenario in which I bet him.

622
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 3: You're I think you're right.

623
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 2: Otherwise I'd probably be looking to target Yahn at the

624
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 2: same price or better than he his pre fight. I'm

625
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 2: gonna go ahead and rearrange, uh, you know, our top

626
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:32,680
Speaker 2: props and best bets here, just so it's a bit

627
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 2: more coherent because there's a couple of fights in common

628
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 2: that we want to talk about. The first of which

629
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 2: is Rebel's the span against Josh Breeze and Rebels to

630
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 2: Spain the big boy, biggest reach in UFC history, eighty

631
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 2: four inch reach, six foot seven heavyweight. I think he's

632
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 2: an Olympic bronze medalist in taekwondo from Cuba, loves the

633
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 2: head kick. Past three wins have all come in twenty

634
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 2: seconds or last I think twenty seconds combined. His past

635
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,919
Speaker 2: three wins each yeah, and against completely untested competition. I

636
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 2: think one of his opponents has faced one other opponent,

637
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 2: and nobody else has fought in MMA, so we don't

638
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 2: know anything about Rebela's the Spade other than the fact

639
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 2: that he's really tall and really good.

640
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 3: At kicking people in the head.

641
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 2: I think this fight to end inside the first two

642
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 2: and a half minutes the under zero point five rounds

643
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 2: at plus two hundred is kind of a fun way

644
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 2: to bet it because that does seem like the majority

645
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 2: of the spades wing condition. Alternatively, the fight to end

646
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 2: in round one is juiced up to like minus two hundred,

647
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 2: so you're getting a bit more of a bump on

648
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 2: the first half of the first round instead of getting

649
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 2: the entirety of the first round. Billy, I think you

650
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 2: like Josh person to potentially survive here and then turn

651
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 2: the tables.

652
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're setting me up for failure here. I'm taking

653
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 4: a plus thirteen hundred. You know, flyer under Aspresian, don't

654
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 4: at me when it gets knocked out in twenty seconds.

655
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 4: I understand that, like the that's the likeliest outcome here.

656
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 4: You know, Parisian is definitely not a great athlete by

657
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 4: UFC standards, one of the lower level heavyweights. With that said,

658
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 4: he's still a jiu jitsu brown belt who's been competing

659
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 4: in MMA for fifteen years. Trains under my buddy James

660
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 4: Gray out in Brighton, which is like a grappling focused

661
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 4: school they have there at Scorpion Fighting System. There's a

662
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 4: reason we've never seen another taekwondo olympian in the UFC.

663
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 4: This is the very first one. They carry their hands low,

664
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 4: they get points for touching, they're not allowed to punch

665
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,239
Speaker 4: to the head, and they're zero grappling. None of that

666
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 4: is a great setup for you know, MMA. I grew

667
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 4: up doing taekwondo, so I'm not just you know, bad

668
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 4: mouthing it for no reason. Despine's athletic advantage will probably

669
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 4: mean that Pregian can't take him down, and then it

670
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 4: ends for Pregian fast. But what if he does, because

671
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 4: this guy has no ground game that we've ever seen.

672
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 4: All of his opponents on the regional scene where guys

673
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 4: with like boxing and kickboxing backgrounds like they were all

674
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 4: hand picked to make the big boy look exciting, make

675
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 4: the big goalie look fun, make him look like a

676
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 4: thing we really don't know. And this guy who's thirty five,

677
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 4: he has been training and grappling for like three or

678
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 4: four years. You know, he's effectively like a low level

679
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 4: blue belt at this point. Presian is actually no slouch

680
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 4: on the ground. You know, it's hard for him to

681
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 4: get it there, given that he's not the fastest, not

682
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,239
Speaker 4: the strongest. Thirteen to one odds on a submission if

683
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:07,719
Speaker 4: he's going to win, I think that's how almost how

684
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 4: it has to be. If they're on the feet for

685
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 4: more than a minute or two, he probably ends up unconscious.

686
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 4: I don't know that it would be a smart game

687
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 4: plan for Prejian to try to finish him on the

688
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 4: ground with strikes when there's such an easily available option

689
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 4: with submissions there So thirteen to one odds. No one

690
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 4: in the YouTube comments yell at me when it gets

691
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 4: knocked out. I understand that's probably what's going to happen.

692
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 4: It's thirteen to one, though, and like that's how that

693
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 4: should be his money line. Not quite, but like it

694
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 4: should be considerably closer to his money line, should be

695
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 4: the most likely outcome. I think for Pregian, he ain't

696
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 4: gonna win a decision because they stand them up at

697
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 4: the start of every round.

698
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 3: So assuming Presian live after round one as well.

699
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 5: I don't what do you mean after round one? There's

700
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 5: not gonna be after round one? Here, come on, let's

701
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 5: get out of here.

702
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: Yeah.

703
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 4: Maybe, Honestly, I don't know, now that you make me

704
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 4: think about it. The Taekwindos style, if nothing else, is

705
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 4: not very energy intense savior, flicking out kicks, being fast,

706
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 4: kind of dartn in and out. It's not like he's

707
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 4: a wrestler's gonna burn his tank out.

708
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 5: I don't know. Let's hope we don't have to watch

709
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 5: more than one or two rounds of this.

710
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 4: I think we're gonna know fairly quickly whether Despine you

711
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 4: can defend a take down and that's gonna that's gonna

712
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 4: figure it out one way or the other. Your pick

713
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 4: is perfectly like getting him in under half round and

714
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 4: plus one eighty. I think if he's gonna win, that's

715
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 4: probably pretty likely how that happens as well, Like we're.

716
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 5: Gonna tak it up.

717
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 2: You could play that in the same game parlay as well,

718
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 2: juice it up just a little bit further. But I

719
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: think the under one and a half or the under

720
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 2: half a round of plus one eighty probably fine enough.

721
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 2: You could also bet first minute finish at some books.

722
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 2: As well, So to make sure to take a look

723
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 2: for that. Just just Spain wins, it's probably gonna be

724
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: on the first exchange. Another prop that I like quite

725
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 2: a bit Jaelton Almeida by submission at plus three eighty,

726
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 2: we're to win in rounds one or two. At plus

727
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 2: two hundred, he doesn't really go for the ground and pound.

728
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 2: I think there's a chance though, that he just catches

729
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 2: Curtis Blades on the feet. You know, Curtis Blade, who

730
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 2: is worried about getting taken down. Potentially Jaelton lifts up

731
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 2: a kick and clips them and knocks him out. Blazes

732
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 2: is not of a good chin. He's also a skittish

733
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 2: in his recent fights, especially since the Derrek Lewis knockout.

734
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 2: Even his fight against Rosenstrike, when he was going for takedowns,

735
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 2: rosen Strike would land a short little hooking tight and

736
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 2: Blades was like completely freaking out that he was getting hit.

737
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 2: So I just don't love the optics from Curtis Blades.

738
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 2: I love how he's talking in interviews. He seems like

739
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: he's taken a lot of damage throughout his career, doesn't

740
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 2: seem to just be fully engaged anymore. I think I

741
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 2: have a theory actually about Curtis Blades that a lot

742
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: of people who played UFC for the video game still

743
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: view Curtis Blades as its formal title challenger because having

744
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 2: played the game, Curtis Blades was like this impossible heavyweight

745
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 2: to beat in terms of video game skills, because he's

746
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: humongous and has this wrestling and clinching ability and you

747
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 2: can't do anything with him. And I think for that reason,

748
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: people kind of overrate his actual skills. In real life,

749
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 2: he's going to get taken down by Jelton Omda.

750
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 4: Here.

751
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 2: Jelton is the much better athlete. I know he's smaller,

752
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 2: but he's the much better athlete. He's freakishly strong, and

753
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 2: he's the much better submission grappler. If Blades tries to

754
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: initiate the wrestling, I think Jaelton is going to reverse

755
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 2: him and end up submitting him. I think Blades needs

756
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 2: to keep this on the feet, counter grapple. It's what

757
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 2: he's talked about doing. He said he needs to employ

758
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 2: that kind of justin Gatchee game plan, counter grapple, keep

759
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: this on the feet and knock Jelton out. I like

760
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 2: Jaelthon to turn this into a grappling match and to

761
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 2: either win by decision or to likelier submit Curtis Blade.

762
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 2: So Jaelton all made up by submission to Paul three eighty.

763
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 2: I think he got it done when the first couple

764
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 2: of rounds, Billy, you're going with Jailton as your best bet.

765
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I took him on the money line you could

766
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 4: get I think his highest plus one ten when I

767
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 4: did the luck ratings.

768
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 5: But you kind of feed up a lot of the

769
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 5: reasons why.

770
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 4: You know, Blades is bigger than Jiyleton, former light heavyweight,

771
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 4: you know, kind of just I think he saw how

772
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 4: much worse the heavyweight division was on the whole and

773
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 4: was like, I don't have to cut weight and I

774
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 4: get to fight worse guys most of the time. Cool,

775
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 4: sign me up. But you know, Blades is bigger, But

776
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 4: Blades isn't as big as Derek Lewis. And Gylton racked

777
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 4: up twenty one minutes to control time against Derek Lewis

778
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 4: in a twenty five minute fight. I know Lewis isn't

779
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 4: a great grappler. Nobody does that to Derek Lewis. He

780
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 4: kind of just takes his deep breath and gets up.

781
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 4: He's been able to do that against pretty much everyone

782
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 4: other than Jileton Amida. The other factor here is, you know,

783
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 4: Blades wants to keep this standing and try to knock

784
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 4: him out. Blades has been able to box or strike

785
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 4: with the knowledge that his opponents are worried about takedown's

786
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 4: and he is not. That has been his whole career.

787
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 4: He's been able to, you know, kind of take some

788
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 4: wilder swings, step in a little bit more heavy, have

789
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 4: more weight on the front leg, all of those things

790
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 4: that you don't do when you're worried about the takedown

791
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 4: coming back. So if he breaks that habit, I don't

792
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 4: know how well his boxing plays against Almeida, and if

793
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 4: he doesn't break that habit, he ends up on his back.

794
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 4: You could make the similar argument against Gilton, where he's

795
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 4: never fought another guy with this level of grappling. I

796
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 4: don't think it matters man, Gileton is he looks unstoppable.

797
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 4: I was talking about it earlier, guys on the way

798
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 4: up who've just dominated everyone. The only reason I'm not

799
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 4: on your side of things is, as you mentioned, not

800
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 4: a lot of grounded pound. He's kind of content to

801
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 4: be on top if you give him a submission, he'll

802
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 4: take it. If it's not there, he's just gonna win

803
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 4: this round. And the way he fought against Derek Lewis

804
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 4: didn't really He looked for an arm triangle choke early

805
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,479
Speaker 4: and when that wasn't there, kind of never anything else.

806
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 4: We could argue that he was kind of just trying

807
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 4: to prove to people he can do five rounds. I

808
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 4: think there's an element of that, but that scared me

809
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 4: just enough that against an inferior grappler in Lewis, he

810
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 4: didn't see an opportunity didn't take it. I could see

811
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,399
Speaker 4: this playing out similarly, especially at you know, around even money.

812
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 4: I got slight plus money earlier in the week, so yeah,

813
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 4: it's playing his money line.

814
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 5: I think minus one oh five or so.

815
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,720
Speaker 4: Now I'd play this down to like minus one thirty

816
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,720
Speaker 4: minus one forty. I think he should be a moderate

817
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 4: favorite here.

818
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 2: I actually think Derek Lewis's lack of like grappling acumen

819
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 2: is what kept him safe in that fight, because he

820
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 2: just sort of, you know, he turtled up, he stayed in,

821
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 2: he stayed in. Defensive mountain was the greatest defensive mountain

822
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 2: performance in the history of MMA. But you know Curtis

823
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 2: Blades is going to actually try to get up or

824
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 2: roll over, and I think he's going to put himself

825
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 2: in positions to get finished. I doubt he's going to

826
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 2: just accept bottom position. You know there's an ego thing

827
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 2: there too, getting out wrestled, getting out grappled when you

828
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 2: consider yourself probably the better wrestler, I'm sure you will

829
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 2: try to prove that you can actually reverse positions and

830
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 2: get on top. But yes, Cheltonel made the side for

831
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:08,399
Speaker 2: both of us. More grappling upside against the wrestler at

832
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 2: a Pickham price. My best bet going with McCall Olex

833
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 2: Say Chuck podcast favorite definitely cashing tickets on the call

834
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 2: in the past against Michelle Pereira, another podcast favorite. I

835
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 2: think this is a bad matchup for Pereira though he

836
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,720
Speaker 2: does not like getting pressured, and typically he's the hammer

837
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,240
Speaker 2: not the nail. Here he is very much the nail,

838
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 2: especially early nobody pressures like Lord McCall. He's also looked

839
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 2: incredibly powerful since moving down and wait the pressure, the boxing,

840
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be really dangerous for Prairily,

841
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 2: he's going to get backed up against the fence. He's

842
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 2: the guy who likes space. He likes to create chaos

843
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 2: when he has that space, even more so now in

844
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 2: his career he's become a less chaotic fighter. He does

845
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 2: have the grappling upside here. I think he could potentily

846
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,959
Speaker 2: potentially land a takedown and threaten some chokes from McCall oaks. Huck,

847
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: especially for the first round, is an absolute handful. Always

848
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 2: like to bet his money line, Always like to sprinkle

849
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 2: that round one prop getting about plus five hundred or

850
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 2: better on this fight, gotten his highest plus nine hundred

851
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 2: in the past. The collax State Chuck on the money

852
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 2: line has the striking advantage, should win the early minutes,

853
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 2: and I think of this weight class against this opponent,

854
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 2: he actually has a fairly neutral cardio bantle as well

855
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 2: and should be able to maintain it over the course

856
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 2: of fifteen minutes. So just think he has more ways

857
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 2: to win. Pereira probably has to grapple successfully if he

858
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:33,439
Speaker 2: wants to break the pressure win this fight. Billy, any

859
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 2: thoughts on Old State Chuck against Peyrer before we get

860
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 2: out of here.

861
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 5: No, I like that, and one thing you kind of

862
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 5: alluded to it, But Ola J.

863
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 4: Chuck former light heavyweight, you know, kind of struggled against

864
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 4: the bigger, stronger guys there. Paid a former welterweight kind

865
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:47,799
Speaker 4: of struggled against the scales there. But I think a

866
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 4: lot of his success was due to being so much

867
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 4: bigger and stronger than his opponents in a way that's

868
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 4: probably not going to be there now. So, yeah, it's

869
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 4: great if you can grapple, but if you're all of

870
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 4: a sudden facing someone stronger than you for the first

871
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 4: time in your career and trying to wrestle him, maybe

872
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 4: that doesn't work. So like where you're coming from, you

873
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 4: have sold me on it, even though it's not a

874
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 4: bet I've made yet, so I will be rushing to

875
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 4: do that as soon as we get off this.

876
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, sawas heigest plus one thirty, it did't seem like

877
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 2: it was coming down today, so probably gonna jump in

878
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 2: on that at plus one thirty, projected it closer to

879
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 2: plus one fifteen, and that'll do it for us for

880
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 2: the UFC two nine at nine betting preview on the

881
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:22,399
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM. Find more from

882
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 2: Billy and myself on actionnetwork dot com and don't forget

883
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 2: to download the free award winning Action Network app. You

884
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 2: can find all of our picks for this weekend logged

885
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 2: in there. Best of luck with all of your best

886
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 2: this weekend, and see you next time on the Action

887
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 2: Network podcast.

888
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

889
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890
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Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler