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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: We're throwing out job spect.

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Speaker 2: I'm setting it to cash.

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Speaker 3: Toucht We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 2: ultimate kabine you want to pull, and we are Honderway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the week eleven edition of the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your Week

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Speaker 4: eleven NFL betting preview. I'm joined as always by my

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Speaker 4: Action Network colleague, Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey. What

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Speaker 4: is good, my brother?

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Man? It was a winning week, so

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Speaker 2: I'm always happy with that. Crazy week. Trying to keep

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Speaker 2: up with injuries, COVID it being, it's getting insane. The

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Speaker 2: NFL just issued a mandate saying that every team USS

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Speaker 2: have followed strict COVID protocols for the rest of the season,

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Speaker 2: so it's definitely getting a little crazier. Last week was

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Speaker 2: crazy from a betting perspective for this podcast. Yeah, you

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Speaker 2: had the Texans and then the Hail Mary, but then

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Speaker 2: you had the forty nine ers who should have covered.

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Speaker 2: They got Ah Jeff Nick.

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Speaker 4: Mowins with that terrible throat to burn and he threw

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Speaker 4: it to right? Was it Patrick Robinson? He threw a

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Speaker 4: right to Patrick Robinson in the end zone?

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Speaker 2: That was yeah. But still they had two muff punts,

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Speaker 2: they had the bullshit breeze personal foul. That's forty hours.

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Speaker 2: Should have covered that game easily. But yeah, we move

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Speaker 2: on to try to find some winners.

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Speaker 4: We move on to week number eleven, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 4: crazy week, So we're going to get into our We're

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Speaker 4: gonna get into the Sursday night Football preview, of course,

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Speaker 4: and we'll get into our top six spread bets of

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Speaker 4: the week. In the Sunday six pack will give you

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Speaker 4: our favorite totals, keaser, moneyline, dog, and survivor pick. But first,

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Speaker 4: a couple of quick reminders. Number One, if you plan

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Speaker 4: to bet the NFL this season and you haven't downloaded

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Speaker 4: the free, award winning Action Network app, what are you doing?

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Speaker 4: It's got betting tools, analysis from me, Stucky, the whole

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Speaker 4: Action Network team, and it lets you track every bet

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Speaker 4: that you make, so go check that out. You can

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Speaker 4: also follow Sunday six Pack to see all of the

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Speaker 4: podcast picks each week and how they are doing. And

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Speaker 4: number two, If you want a chance at a free

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Speaker 4: Vegas vacation, don't forget to enter the Action Pods Tournament

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Speaker 4: Thirty five spots in the grand Finale are still up

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Speaker 4: for grabs and there's nothing to lose. Just imagine yourself

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Speaker 4: on that free Vegas vacation. You're gambling, you're drinking. You

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Speaker 4: run into Raiders super fan MC Hammer. You start talking.

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Speaker 4: He buys you a pair of Hammer pants and takes

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Speaker 4: you to dinner at Lemongrass. At the Aria, you try

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Speaker 4: to grab the last shrimp roll, but he says you

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Speaker 4: can't touch this. He start laughing, but he wasn't making

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Speaker 4: a joke. He asked you to leave, but you can

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Speaker 4: keep the pants. Anything is possible, so sign him now

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Speaker 4: using the link in this episode description. Did you ever

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Speaker 4: have some hammer pants stuck or is that is that aided?

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Speaker 2: Like when I was in like seventhethh grip, I was

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Speaker 2: a wanna be skater. I guess my big gest echo

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Speaker 2: jeans with like the they're black and then there was

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Speaker 2: an orange stripe I remember down the side and I

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Speaker 2: used to wear them all the time. I was like

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Speaker 2: a dirty skater, want to be But those are the days.

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Speaker 4: And then I mean all from like I want to say,

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Speaker 4: like fifth grade to eleventh grade, all my pants were

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Speaker 4: like eight sizes too big at we so yimman, let's

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Speaker 4: get into the Thursday night football preview.

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Speaker 1: On that note, It's not the best game, but it's

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Speaker 1: the only game tonight. Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 4: All right, Thursday Night Football. We usually come into this saying,

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Speaker 4: I don't know, maybe if we can kind of avoid

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Speaker 4: betting this game, maybe we will. But second week in

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Speaker 4: a row, pretty good divisional matchup here. Last week, the Colts,

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Speaker 4: as you predicted or kind of alluded to smash the

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Speaker 4: Titans a lot of special teams errors. This time we

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Speaker 4: get the Cardinals, fresh off the Hail Murray, going to

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Speaker 4: Seattle to face the Seahawks. Everyone accept the Niners, of course,

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Speaker 4: the team that gets the Super Bowl last year, tied

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Speaker 4: atop the NFC West at six and three, including the

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Speaker 4: Cardinals and the Seahawks. Seahawks three point favorites at bet MGM,

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Speaker 4: the official odds provider of the podcast, the total is

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Speaker 4: a sky high fifty seven and a half. Stuck initial

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Speaker 4: thoughts on what should be a good rematch of the

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Speaker 4: thirty seven to thirty four overtime Cardinals win a few

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Speaker 4: weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: We have a really good Thursday night game here, which

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Speaker 2: is always nice. If you recall, this game went to overtime.

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Speaker 2: The Cardinals scored like ten points in the final two minutes.

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Speaker 2: A few weeks back at another primetime game ended up

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Speaker 2: winning in overtime. The first thing you have to talk

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Speaker 2: about here is the injuries for Seattle, and they're pretty extensive. Chris.

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Speaker 2: I mean, let's say Chris Carson didn't practice the other day.

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Speaker 2: He's going to be out. He's out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they're saying he's like likely to go. Hi is

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Speaker 4: gonna go. But then you got dunbar In Griffin, the

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Speaker 4: cornerbacks both out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're two, and then Ethan poachest are starting center.

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Speaker 2: He's didn't practice and that was a big loss last game.

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Speaker 2: Which but if you don't have your two starting corners

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Speaker 2: Dunbar and Griffin, that's big against the Cardinals who like

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Speaker 2: to go four wide. They do have Umagu back at

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Speaker 2: at the slot, which helps a little bit, but it's

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Speaker 2: I mean, you're gonna have DJ Reid and Trey Flowers

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Speaker 2: out there. The one thing I can say is that, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think Griffin's actually the bigger loss on the outside.

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Speaker 2: So I you know, with DJ Reid filling and just

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Speaker 2: your depth overall though, is taking a really big hit.

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Speaker 2: I actually make this line right on three, so I

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Speaker 2: don't see any value from a side perspective. By the way,

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Speaker 2: this and the Seattle the Seattle defense, it's not just

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Speaker 2: their corners. I mean, Digs and Adams are supposed to

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Speaker 2: be really good safeties. There's sixty third and sixty fourth

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Speaker 2: in coverage out of seventy safeties with three hundred snaps.

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Speaker 2: Like nobody's covering. They're getting no pressure up front. It's

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Speaker 2: basically just you have good linebackers. But how often does

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Speaker 2: that really matter on a play in the NFL these days?

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Speaker 2: Uh So the defense is really bad, and then you

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Speaker 2: have Russell Wilson, who is starting potentially to regress a

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Speaker 2: little bit. Is he forcing last week against the Rams

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Speaker 2: and the loss when he got over the Rams forty

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Speaker 2: five yard line, he went three of twelve for seventeen yards,

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Speaker 2: no touchdowns, two sacks, two picks ended in intentional grounding.

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Speaker 2: That's insane, you know, and he forced a really bad

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Speaker 2: throw in the end zone. He's had some uncharacteristic.

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Speaker 4: Hey, I just want to I do want to give

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Speaker 4: a shout out to the Rams defense because I know

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Speaker 4: both of us on this podcast we kind of said,

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Speaker 4: you know, they haven't played anyone they played in the

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Speaker 4: NFC East. You know, are they for real? I think

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Speaker 4: they proved a lot in that game against uh uh Seattle.

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Speaker 4: You know they have you know, more than just Donald

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Speaker 4: and Ramsey. You have Johnson and you have you have,

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Speaker 4: you have a bunch of guys and who is Brandon

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Speaker 4: Staley is the first year YEP coordinator. He's been doing

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Speaker 4: he's been doing a great job. So just wanted to

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Speaker 4: give a shout out to the Rams defense. You know

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Speaker 4: I was wrong about well, you know I didn't. I

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Speaker 4: just didn't think they were as good or they hadn't

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Speaker 4: shown it yet and they certainly showed it, so shouts

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Speaker 4: at ramsby.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it was Look, they still have one

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Speaker 2: of the worst faced one of the worst schedules of

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Speaker 2: opposing offenses in the NFL. And like some of the

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Speaker 2: thurs that Russell Wilson threw had nothing to do with

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Speaker 2: the Rams defense, Like yeah, one he could have ran

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Speaker 2: for a touchdown and instead he throws into double coverage

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Speaker 2: for a pick like that one was horrible. You know,

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Speaker 2: And look, Staley's doing some great things. He's using some

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Speaker 2: college concepts. He's running, you know, some new looks in

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Speaker 2: the NFL that we've seen some in college, and they

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Speaker 2: are working. And you have a lot of guys who

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Speaker 2: are playing really well. I mean, you know, I think

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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson was just a little panicked and he was

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Speaker 2: trying to do too much. But I guess I will

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Speaker 2: say that I've been saying that there's no way that

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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson could keep up what he was doing. He

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Speaker 2: was playing at such an extremely high, perfect level that

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Speaker 2: he was due for some regression. So I think this

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Speaker 2: line is spot on. It'll probably go back and forth

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Speaker 2: at the end. I think it'll be a close game.

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Speaker 2: You know, we could get into the rust and primetime trends.

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Speaker 2: But I actually might look and this is ugly, this

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Speaker 2: is I think, what my luck? My look is going

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Speaker 2: to be here. I might look at it under. It

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Speaker 2: might be a first half under, or it might be

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Speaker 2: a game under. I haven't decided yet. I will be

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Speaker 2: on one of the two or both. And I know

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Speaker 2: that totals that have closed at fifty seven and a

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Speaker 2: half were higher have gone There's only been twelve of

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Speaker 2: them prior to this game. Eleven of the twelve have

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Speaker 2: gone over by an average of eleven points per game,

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Speaker 2: the loan exception with Saints Falcons last year. But you know,

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Speaker 2: this is the second meeting of a divisional matchup, which

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Speaker 2: tends to favor Unders a little bit. You have some

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Speaker 2: more familiarity. I do think it's a tad too high

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Speaker 2: from a numbers perspective from where I said it, but

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Speaker 2: I also think that the Seahawks are going to come

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Speaker 2: out and I'm going to maybe I have to reevaluate this,

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Speaker 2: but as long as Hit is playing, I think they're

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Speaker 2: going to try to run it more. I think that,

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Speaker 2: and Pete Carroll has hinted at that this week, maybe saying,

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Speaker 2: you know, let Russ cook later hook Everyone was saying

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Speaker 2: that maybe they've taken that too much to the extreme,

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Speaker 2: not saying that's right or wrong. I think this is

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Speaker 2: what they're thinking after what they saw last week. So

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Speaker 2: I think that they might come out knowing they have

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Speaker 2: questions on defense, knowing Wilson struggled a little bit, they

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Speaker 2: might want to go back to the old Seahawks, especially

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Speaker 2: in the first half. Run the ball a lot, control

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Speaker 2: the clock, set up some deep shots for Russ. So

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Speaker 2: I think you might see a different look Seahawks team

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Speaker 2: on Thursday night. So I might look at an under

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Speaker 2: it's disgusting. I mean, I think it was twenty seven

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Speaker 2: to seventeen at the half last time these two teams

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Speaker 2: met about a couple of weeks ago. But that's where

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Speaker 2: I'm looking here. I think the line is spot on.

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Speaker 2: How about you.

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Speaker 4: I am going with the Seahawks in this spot on

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Speaker 4: the money line, though I've not taken them. I don't

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Speaker 4: know they'll cover the you know, I don't know if

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Speaker 4: they'll win by more than four. But in the Russell

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Speaker 4: Wilson era, according to our Action Labs data, off a

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Speaker 4: multi game losing streak, which is a two game losing streak.

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Speaker 4: They are seven to zero on the money line. They

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Speaker 4: just don't lose three in a row. It doesn't happen

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Speaker 4: very often. It's never happened in our numbers in West

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Speaker 4: we were missing a game somewhere in there. It's never happened.

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Speaker 4: So I like the Seahawks to get a close winning

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Speaker 4: this one, and I do agree. I think that they

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Speaker 4: will run the ball, and I think Hide coming off

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Speaker 4: the injury report and I'm holding you kind of saw

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Speaker 4: why they held him out, and they gave Collins a

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Speaker 4: lot of work too, because you have now you have

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Speaker 4: home were doubtful. So it looks like they're gonna ride

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Speaker 4: high in that first matchup where remember now Seattle got

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Speaker 4: up in this one twenty to seven. They were up

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Speaker 4: twenty seven to fourteen. They ran thirty times for two

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Speaker 4: hundred yards in that game. Russell Wilson had six for

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Speaker 4: eighty four, Carlos Hide fifteen for sixty eight in the touchdown.

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Speaker 4: Really had this team have its best running day, I believe,

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Speaker 4: of the year against this Cardinal defense. And they'll be

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Speaker 4: without defensive tackle Corey Peters, who already got ruled out.

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Speaker 4: So it's gonna be I think a different a little

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Speaker 4: bit of a different look, and I think that'll take

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Speaker 4: the pressure off of us. I think now is probably

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Speaker 4: the time to fade this Cardinals team, just for this

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Speaker 4: week anyway, because you look at what's happened in these

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Speaker 4: past few weeks. They get the big comeback against Seattle

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Speaker 4: in a game they probably had no business winning. That's

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Speaker 4: what kind of started the Russell Wilson coming back down

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Speaker 4: to earth. Then you had the Miami game, which they

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Speaker 4: should have probably won more handily and it shouldn't have

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Speaker 4: to come down to a field goal. But Miami a

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Speaker 4: lot better than I think people think. But then even

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Speaker 4: that Buffalo game, I mean, the Cardinals had no business

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Speaker 4: winning that game. They get down big in that one,

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Speaker 4: and they come all the way back, and then their

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Speaker 4: defense can't hold down Josh Allen and then Kyler Murray's amazing.

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Speaker 4: Well now you're meeting amazing with amazing here and Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 4: and it's now it's kind of going the other way.

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Speaker 4: It's like Russell Wilson's been so shaky over these past

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Speaker 4: few games that now you almost expect you're like, okay, well,

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Speaker 4: now he has to like start making some of those

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Speaker 4: amazing plays again so at home. Seattle lost the first

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Speaker 4: matchup even though they were up big seven to zero

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Speaker 4: off a two game losing streak. Never let it get

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Speaker 4: to three. Like Seattle owns the money line here, but

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Speaker 4: don't trust them to cover the spread. I think it

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Speaker 4: will be a close game. So there you have it.

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Speaker 4: Moneyline is minus one seventy six at bet mgm, the

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Speaker 4: let's do a stuck. Let's crack open the week eleven

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Speaker 4: Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right, So not hitting my two point pick was

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Speaker 4: a big loss as far as our little contest. We

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Speaker 4: get two points for our top pick, one point each

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Speaker 4: for our second and third and our total, and another

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Speaker 4: for sweeping the board. But you picked up a point

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Speaker 4: on me, I believe, and you're up thirty twenty four

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Speaker 4: because well, I didn't hit my two point pick. I

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Speaker 4: think one of your what was it the chargers? Of

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Speaker 4: course it was the chargers didn't come through, and that

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Speaker 4: was your pick that didn't So you got a point

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Speaker 4: on me. You're up thirty twenty four. We're in the

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Speaker 4: week of eleven. You got the number one pick.

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Speaker 2: Where you go It's pretty obvious where I'm going here

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Speaker 2: for my first pick of the Sunday six pack. I

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Speaker 2: am going with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the one win Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: Jaguars plus nine against the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. Look, I've

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Speaker 2: preached about this many times. It's one of the few

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Speaker 2: spots that I'll blindly bet in the NFL assuming the

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Speaker 2: number isn't you know, is within reason. That's ultimately what's

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Speaker 2: gonna come down to is the number, the descriptive to

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Speaker 2: the number I make in them, the number that's out there.

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Speaker 2: And I'm more than comfortable here. I took ten. Look

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Speaker 2: around and you can get some ten out there, and

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Speaker 2: so make sure you always shop around. So I was

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Speaker 2: more than comfortable taking ten. This is a classic Mike

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Speaker 2: Tomlin fade spot. My first pick a couple weeks ago

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Speaker 2: was the Cowboys, uh catching double digits against the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin, by the way, is one and ten against

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Speaker 2: the spread as a double digit favorite on the road

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Speaker 2: against losing teams. One in ten, He's failing to cover

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Speaker 2: by an average of nine points per game. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's just shocking. He's six and five straight up in

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Speaker 2: those games. He's lost five of them outright, he almost

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Speaker 2: lost to the Cowboys. You begin to get a couple

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Speaker 2: of calls at home, but they didn't get They win

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Speaker 2: that game, and then in twenty eighteen they lost at

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Speaker 2: the two and ten Raiders as eleven point favorites. We've

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Speaker 2: seen this time and time again from Tomlin. I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: look no further than on the road against teams under

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Speaker 2: five hundred he is in his career fifteen twenty nine

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Speaker 2: and one thirty four point one percent against the spread.

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Speaker 2: That's a negative thirty percent ROI dead last out of

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Speaker 2: one hundred and two coaches in our bat Labs database.

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Speaker 2: On the other side, I've said this many times. As

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Speaker 2: a road dog against winning teams, he's seventeen and five

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Speaker 2: against the spread, seventy seven point three percent against the spread,

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Speaker 2: covering by almost six points per game, Number one in

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Speaker 2: our database. On the money line, he's twenty six and

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Speaker 2: nineteen straight up on the road. Is a favorite against

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Speaker 2: losing teams, he's winning fifty seven to fifty eight percent

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Speaker 2: of those games. The league average is about sixty six percent.

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Speaker 2: He's about ten percent below that. And then if you

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Speaker 2: look at him as a dog against winning teams, he's

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Speaker 2: winning seventy two percent of those games. As a dog

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Speaker 2: between zero and seven points league average about thirty four percent. Why, well,

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Speaker 2: he's generally a raw rock coach. That's one of his

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Speaker 2: biggest strengths. It's tom Us against the world. He goes

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Speaker 2: in the locker room and he's probably banging his head

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Speaker 2: against the wall, telling telling his team that you know this,

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Speaker 2: everyone disrespects us. No one thinks that we can win

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Speaker 2: this game. Just picture Tom win yelling, and then in

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Speaker 2: other spots it's just like it's more they come out

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Speaker 2: just so flat. I've always said that's one of his

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Speaker 2: biggest strengths as a raw rock coach. So it's it's

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Speaker 2: kind of like Tom Herman in college has similar splits. Well,

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Speaker 2: let me back up.

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Speaker 4: You know one loss hurts that bad.

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Speaker 2: I mean we had guys in tears, so number one

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Speaker 2: it's so this is your classic Thomas swat. Plus they

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Speaker 2: had the Ravens on Thanksgiving four days later. So maybe

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a look ahead here, maybe hold

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Speaker 2: some things back, just try to get out of Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: with a ugly win. I just think they come out flat,

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Speaker 2: which is ultimately why I'm playing. Now. There are Jake

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Speaker 2: Newton from Oregon State, the rookie he's going to get

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Speaker 2: the start again. He hasn't been great, but he has

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Speaker 2: a couple starts under his belt. He doesn't really turn

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Speaker 2: the ball over if you go back to his college splits,

359
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Speaker 2: which is nice. If you have a double digit home dog,

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Speaker 2: you don't want to be turning it over against the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: There's actually some things to like about the Jaguars. Look,

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Speaker 2: I have them as the second worst team in the

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Speaker 2: NFL power anywise. I'll make no mistake about it is

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Speaker 2: a bad team. But they should get Linder back. Brandon

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Speaker 2: Linder their center. He cleared concussion protocol today in practice,

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Speaker 2: so he'll be back. They have a really solid interior

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Speaker 2: offensive line with Linder back in there in their two guards,

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Speaker 2: so that's really big against the Steelers their elite defensive line.

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Speaker 2: They have great defensive tackles. You have James Robinson, a

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Speaker 2: ROOKIEUT of Illinois State. By the way, Jack Jags have

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Speaker 2: so many contributing rookies who's just running the ball really well.

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Speaker 2: Lowton is cut, he can He'll move around when he

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Speaker 2: needs to. He's not the most mobile guy, but I

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Speaker 2: think that might come in handy. The one scary part

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Speaker 2: here is if you look at the Jags offensive line

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Speaker 2: in tier a really solid right tackle Juwan Taylor. He's

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Speaker 2: sixty second of sixty three tackles minimum two hundred snaps

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Speaker 2: in pass blocking decent and run blocking, but in pass blocking,

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Speaker 2: and he's gonna go up against TJ. Watt, who's arguably

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Speaker 2: been the best edge rusher from the left side of

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Speaker 2: the defense in twenty twenty. So that is a bit

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Speaker 2: of a concern. But the Jags have been competitive the

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Speaker 2: last couple of games. They're still fighting, which I do

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Speaker 2: like to see. And then on defense, I think they

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Speaker 2: finally found their corner. Sidney Jones is playing really well,

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Speaker 2: I mean really and then Henderson CJ. Henderson, the rookie

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Speaker 2: is starting to show flashes and he played really well.

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Speaker 4: Les.

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Speaker 2: I know that Adams had a couple of drops, but

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Speaker 2: Adams is going to roast most people, but I think

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Speaker 2: that he's building confidence and looks a lot better. The

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Speaker 2: slot is still a major issue, regardless of who's been

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Speaker 2: in there this year, So does Schuster have a big day,

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Speaker 2: that's certainly a question. Jared Wilson's been a bright spot

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Speaker 2: at safety, and you have Jack and Allen that are

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Speaker 2: back healthy. They're the stars of the show and there's

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Speaker 2: these other two rookies that I really like, Davon Hamilton,

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Speaker 2: he's playing really well, and Doug Costin, who's going to

399
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Speaker 2: be back this week at defensive tackle. So there's some

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Speaker 2: things to like in this Steelers offense has not been

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Speaker 2: right all year. Now. The one worry is that Ben

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Speaker 2: looked great last week. Apparently he didn't throw until Friday

403
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Speaker 2: and it was the first time he changed his routine

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Speaker 2: leading up to the game. And some say, look, he

405
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Speaker 2: had to shake off the rust. I mean, I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's November eighteenth. I don't necessarily know how much rush

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Speaker 2: you have to shake off. But if Ben does play

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Speaker 2: that way, the Jazz could be in trouble. But my

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Speaker 2: hope here, and look, it's been about sixty seventy percent.

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Speaker 2: It's not a lock. It's not a guarantee. The Steelers

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Speaker 2: could come out ultra focused. Newton could be a disaster

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Speaker 2: and the Steelers could roll. But I'll take my shot

413
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Speaker 2: in this really good spot. I think it's just this

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Speaker 2: situational spot of the week, and I think the Steelers

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Speaker 2: are just tad over value. They are defeated, but they

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Speaker 2: played the thirty one tough, the thirty first toughest schedule.

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Speaker 2: I mean, who have they beat? People are like the

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Speaker 2: Ravens suck, all right, so then they don't have a

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Speaker 2: good win over the Ravens. And now people are saying

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Speaker 2: the Titans sucks, so they don't have a good win

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Speaker 2: over the Tights. They probably should have lost both those games.

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Speaker 2: So I have the Steers righted as the fifth best

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Speaker 2: team in the NFL right now, but their schedule has

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Speaker 2: been a joke. Meanwhile, the Jags played a pretty tough schedule,

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Speaker 2: So give me the Jags. And I think the best

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Speaker 2: situational spot of the weekend Dade Tomlin spot.

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Speaker 4: I completely agree with the offense. I wrote a piece

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Speaker 4: on it last week where I talk about, you know,

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Speaker 4: where the Steelers are on offense in terms of their

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Speaker 4: advanced metrics. Two teams out of the last twenty two

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Speaker 4: have made the Super Bowl ranked lower than seventh in

432
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 4: offensive DVOA. Now, the Steelers have some teams to beat

433
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:05,719
Speaker 4: up on start. You know, they started with the Bengals

434
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,919
Speaker 4: last week. They could beat up on the Jags. They

435
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 4: could get there. But you know, as of right now,

436
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 4: their offense really hasn't shown much. And I actually just

437
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 4: finished rewatching that Steelers Bengals game. I actually wasn't as

438
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 4: impressed with Big Ben as I thought I would be,

439
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 4: you know, kind of watching it on Red Zone when

440
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 4: you looked at that game early downs that's been a

441
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 4: problem for them. It still was a problem. They were

442
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 4: still in quite a few third and longs. They were

443
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 4: still having some early down runs going nowhere. And the Bengals,

444
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 4: I mean, they just played a really bad game in

445
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 4: terms of mistakes and special teams mistakes and penalties and

446
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 4: weird off coverages that like that. Like, I wasn't really

447
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 4: impressed with the Steeers receivers, and you know, they're really

448
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 4: talented group with Deontay and Juju and of course Chase Claypool.

449
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 4: But like, it wasn't the kind of performance I think

450
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 4: that alleviates the concerns. Now, the one thing that does

451
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 4: scare me for the Jag is this could be a

452
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 4: repeated the Bengals game. In the sense of mooton under

453
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 4: pressure this year five of twenty one two picks, so

454
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 4: the Steelers are number one in pressure. This could get

455
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 4: away from them. But I do agree it's it's the

456
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 4: right it's the right play based on the situation you

457
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 4: like and not only just Tom win, but remember the

458
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 4: Big Ben sweepy road afternoon games when Big Ben has

459
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 4: been a home favorite by more than a point eight

460
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 4: and twenty five against the spread just twenty four percent.

461
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 4: You know, we haven't seen that many of these because

462
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,439
Speaker 4: he missed all of last year, but the Cowboys game qualified.

463
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 4: Then you go back to twenty eighteen. They were a

464
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 4: ten and a half point favorite against the a Bad

465
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 4: Raiders team they lost by three, three point favorite against

466
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 4: the Broncos they lose by seven. They played the Jags,

467
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 4: they were four points favorites and actually pushed. I'm sure

468
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 4: people got that line at greater than four as well.

469
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 4: So you know, just going back like this has been

470
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 4: just a bad situation, and I wouldn't be surprised to

471
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 4: see it kind of play out, kind of like the

472
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 4: Cowboys Steelers game from a few weeks ago rather than

473
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 4: the Bengals one from last week.

474
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 2: It's not all on Ben either. Their offensive line, so

475
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 2: that's coming in there. It's not as good as it

476
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: once was. They don't have a single member of their offense

477
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 2: line on the top twenty five of their position. I

478
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 2: think the Jags ugly this up and lose a close.

479
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:28,359
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490
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496
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:20,400
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497
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 4: For the second pick of the week. Eleven Sunday six

498
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 4: Pack and my first overall pick. I'm going with the

499
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 4: Philadelphia Eagles plus three and a half at bet MGM

500
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 4: against the Cleveland Browns. And it seems like every week

501
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 4: now we're getting a hook on Cleveland, and you know,

502
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 4: at home is what They're third straight home game and

503
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,919
Speaker 4: they just haven't been impressive. You know, we look at

504
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 4: last week and yeah, it was lucky that Nick Chubb

505
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 4: steps out, didn't really have to and so they don't cover.

506
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 4: If you got three and a half, hopefully you did

507
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 4: shop around. But now you look at this Eagles matchup,

508
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 4: and now we're right back into the wheelhouse of the

509
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 4: times that you want to bet against the Browns and

510
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 4: bet against Baker Mayfield because you look at Philly number

511
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,479
Speaker 4: six in pressure eight at twenty five point three percent.

512
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield, of the thirty nine quarterbacks with at least

513
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 4: eighty six dropbacks this season, ranks thirty eighth of thirty

514
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 4: nine in passer rating under pressure at thirty point eight.

515
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 4: It's been just a struggle for Mayfield and this has

516
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:42,479
Speaker 4: been his whole career, just one touchdown and four interceptions

517
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 4: under pressure this season. Takes a sack on sixteen percent

518
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 4: of pressure dropbacks completing just forty percent of his passes.

519
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 4: And not only do the Eagles get pressure, which is

520
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 4: really the kryptonite for Baker Mayfield, but the Eagles can

521
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 4: do what is the true kryptonite for this Browns offense

522
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 4: is because they've been able to survive. There's six and three.

523
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 4: You know Mayfield has been terrible under pressure. There's six

524
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 4: and three. Philadelphia number four in defensive adjusted lineyards allowed

525
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 4: three point five to five. What is that measure that

526
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 4: measures how well you are allowing running backs, how far

527
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 4: you're allowing running backs to get beyond the line of scrimmage.

528
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 4: And they're actually even better in running back yard per

529
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 4: carry allowed, number two in the league at just three

530
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 4: point three seven yards per carry allowed two running backs

531
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 4: is Philadelphia. So this plays right into Philadelphia's hands, even

532
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 4: though they had the ugly loss to the Giants last

533
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 4: week on the road. And then you look at these

534
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 4: two teams, right, and you think big difference here Philadelphia

535
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,640
Speaker 4: three six and one, Cleveland six and three. Well, guess

536
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 4: what Philadelphia's point differential minus twenty nine on the year.

537
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 4: Cleveland six and three reverse record their point differential minus

538
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 4: twenty eight. They're separated by one point in point differential.

539
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 4: Who even's a six and three team with a negative

540
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 4: twenty eight point differential. Give me Philadelphia plus three and

541
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 4: the hook in a game I think they can win

542
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 4: out right on the road in Cleveland.

543
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I would have taken this as my

544
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 2: second pick if you didn't. I played the Eagles plus

545
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 2: three and a half. I've been telling everyone, you know,

546
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 2: this team's a dumpster fire. I've been fading them the

547
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 2: entire year. I'll finally play them here. I think this

548
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 2: line should probably be closer to plus one and a half.

549
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 2: I think it's a good matchup for them. As you said,

550
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 2: the Eagles run defense numbers are very skewed because of

551
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 2: what quarterbacks and wide receivers have done against them in

552
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 2: the running game. Lamar Jackson crushed them, Daniel Jones has

553
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: crushed them a few times. And you know, they go

554
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 2: back to the forty nine Ers game. There's been a

555
00:28:54,760 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 2: couple just long jet sweeps and wide receiver runs against them.

556
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 2: And as you said, they've been really good against your

557
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 2: running backs. And that's what the Browns are. They're very

558
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 2: good in Hunt and shobb They're both top three elusive

559
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 2: rating Chubbs averaging and obscene four point four yards after

560
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 2: contacts ridiculous, But yet you can get pressure on by

561
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 2: Andy Janovich is on the on the COVID list. By

562
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 2: the way they're full back, we could hurt a little

563
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 2: bit in certain situations. But the Eagles defend the running

564
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 2: backs really well. I think that they can get pressure

565
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 2: on Mayfield and Eagles secondary has issues. The Eagles passing

566
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 2: game has issues.

567
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 4: They're getting healthy, They're getting healthier. They got Scott her

568
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 4: and they got Rager and we got Aushwan even though

569
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 4: he's like the wide receiver four.

570
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they have to tack over the middle

571
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 2: of the field. I mean, the Browns played basically too

572
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 2: strong safety, so I think they have to really attack

573
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 2: the seam. There's gonna be a lot of wind. I

574
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 2: think that the Eagles Miles Sanders looked really good last

575
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 2: week in the way that he was just exploding to

576
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 2: the hole, so I think that he can have some success.

577
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 2: The Browns didn't played anybody. I mean, if they have

578
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 2: one good win over the Colts, you have to remember that.

579
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 2: And their defensive metrics are all skewed because their last

580
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 2: two games came in windstorm forty mile an hour wins.

581
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 4: Actually, I'm glad you mentioned that because I wanted to

582
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 4: mention that too. Look at the Browns defensive metrics, they're

583
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 4: twenty six and success rate on defense nineteenth and DVA

584
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 4: twentieth in points allowed, and they faced the second easiest

585
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 4: lead of opposing offenses, and they had the two win

586
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 4: games where they allowed twenty three points combined. So after

587
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 4: a game where they allow sixteen and another one where

588
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 4: they allow seven, they're still, you know, near the bottom

589
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 4: of the league in all the defensive metrics, which is absurd.

590
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 2: You would expect some aggression from the Eagles in this aspect.

591
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 2: They've been the unluckiest team in the NFL. And hidden

592
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 2: points about minus fifteen by far, and hidden points are

593
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 2: on special teams. That's things that are out of your control.

594
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 2: So that's teams were like punting their their kickoffs, you know,

595
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,959
Speaker 2: putting a punt in the corner of the end zone,

596
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 2: making really long field goals against you. The field position

597
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 2: was one of the biggest stories of that Giants Eagles

598
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 2: game last year. And by the way, this is just

599
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 2: a game that the Eagles win, just a cliche to say,

600
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: but they you know, they went to everyone's riding off.

601
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 2: They go to Sant Franz and they win. Last year,

602
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 2: you know, they get they lose to the Lions at home,

603
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: and everyone's like this team stinks. They go on the

604
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 2: road and they beat the Packers. You know, then towards

605
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 2: the end of the year, it's like they lose to

606
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 2: the Dolphins. You know, it's like, oh, this team's done.

607
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 2: And then they roll off four games. Just every time

608
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 2: they really need to win a road game over the

609
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 2: past couple of years, they've they've done it. So I

610
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 2: think this game Cup is right down on the wire,

611
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 2: and I think the Eagles are going to find a

612
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 2: way to pull it out.

613
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 4: And just to your point about them on the road,

614
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 4: you know, for those people entering that DFS tournament, you know,

615
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 4: might want to think about the Eagles in this game

616
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 4: Carson Wentz on the road. You know, when the total

617
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 4: is you know, like in the kind of a mid

618
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 4: tier total forty seven and a half or west, because

619
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 4: the Eagles have been struggling twenty one and five in

620
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 4: his career, twenty one and five toward the over eighty

621
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 4: one percent. When the total is forty seven and a

622
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 4: half or left, it's less it's still right there on

623
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 4: that on that kind of threshold, right at forty seven

624
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 4: forty seven and a half. So these are the games

625
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 4: when the Eagles tend to surprise people, as you mentioned,

626
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 4: stuck and play a little better on offense.

627
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: The band's been lifted and we are back in Phi Piladelphia.

628
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 4: Here we call.

629
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 5: Pladelphia Phadelphia Philadelphia.

630
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right. For my second pick and the third

631
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 2: overall pick of the Sunday six pack, I am going

632
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 2: with the how about them Cowboys plus seven at bet MGM. Look,

633
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 2: the Vikings are playing extremely good football of late. Their

634
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 2: offense is really good right now. I mean their offensive line,

635
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 2: especially in run blocking, is playing so well. They got

636
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 2: Drew to me out of the lineup they're placed with

637
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 2: Ezra Cleveland. I've been screaming for that. And the offensive

638
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 2: lines in general across the board is playing really well.

639
00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson has been one of the best rookies in

640
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 2: the NFL to compliment Adam Field on the outside. And

641
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 2: we all know about Dalvin Cook. He's been one of

642
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 2: the best running backs in the league. So the offense

643
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: is really good. It's top ten offense by most metrics

644
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 2: this year. And you know, it's still a work in progress.

645
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 2: On the defensive side of the ball. That's where I

646
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 2: think that the Cowboys can have some success. Andy Dalton

647
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 2: is cleared, I don't know if we'll definitely start. I

648
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 2: actually I'm hoping I can get some Garrett Gilbert again.

649
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 2: He's a little more mobile. But regardless, I don't think

650
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 2: it's a really a bad thing if Dalton start, because

651
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 2: the Vikings don't really get pressure. Now. Last week, they

652
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 2: just have no defensive line left. You lose Everson Griffin,

653
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 2: you lose Michael Pierce, you're losing You had in gotway,

654
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 2: then you lost him. Daniel Hunter's on IR. I mean

655
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 2: it just their entire defensive line is just shredded. So

656
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 2: what they did last week is they just brought a

657
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 2: ton of blitzeres because they said, look, Cordrell Patterson is

658
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 2: the running back. He doesn't know how to be a

659
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 2: running back. And the Bears don't kept throwing at anybody.

660
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 2: We're just we don't worry about the running game. We're

661
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 2: just blitzing everyone. Well, you have to worry about the

662
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 2: running game with the Cowboys, and you have to worry

663
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 2: about their receivers. Two things that the Bears don't have.

664
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 2: The Vikings defense looked a lot better than it was

665
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 2: last week because the Bears don't have receivers, they don't

666
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 2: have a quarterback, and they don't have a running game,

667
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 2: and they don't have an offensive line at least the

668
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 2: Cowboys offensive line now, which is still top ten in lineyards,

669
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 2: and you know they have they're healthy in the middle

670
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,240
Speaker 2: at least now. But this Vikings defense doesn't have corners,

671
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 2: they don't have a pass rush. So I think the

672
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 2: Cowboys be able to move the ball. I know Dalvin

673
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 2: Cook will get his He ran for one hundred and

674
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 2: eighty three total. We had one hundred and eighty three

675
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 2: total yards including receiving yards last year when they beat

676
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 2: the Cowboys twenty eight twenty four. Viking second in lineyards,

677
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 2: Cowboys thirtieth and defensive lineyards. But the Cowboys defense is

678
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: just playing a lot more inspired since they had a

679
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 2: lot of those cuts they threatened we're going to trade.

680
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 2: You look at the last two games against the Steelers

681
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 2: and the Eagles. They should have covered both when everyone

682
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:52,800
Speaker 2: is completely written out. We got a complete fluke blown

683
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,760
Speaker 2: ref play. They cover against the Eagles, they cover easily

684
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 2: against the Steelers, so this team's still fighting. They're one

685
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 2: game out of the win in the nfcast, and they're

686
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 2: coming off of a bye. For what it's worth, if

687
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 2: you're in the trends, Mike McCarthy's the number one most

688
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 2: profitable coach off of a bye since two thousand and threes,

689
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 2: eleven to three and one against the spread, most profitable

690
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 2: of any coach over that span. Vikings off of a

691
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 2: road Monday night football game, very physical game coming back

692
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 2: home on a short week. Teams off the road Monday

693
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 2: night football game coming home forty three percent against the

694
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 2: spread since two thousand and three. So there's some trends

695
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 2: here that do favor the Cowboys. I digs went on

696
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 2: the IR with today with their corner, which does hurt.

697
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 2: He's been playing a lot better. But Ouzie should come

698
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 2: back which will help. They just don't have a lot

699
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 2: of talented corners. So give me the Cowboys here off

700
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 2: of bye, pretty much playing for their season. Selling the

701
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 2: vikings high here, and I think the Cowboys are a

702
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 2: little better than the market is giving them credit for

703
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 2: with their backup quarterbacks. As as I played, I played

704
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,040
Speaker 2: in the last two games should have covered both. I

705
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 2: think this line should be closer to like five and

706
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:05,280
Speaker 2: a half. And don't forget about special teams. Cowboys special

707
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 2: teams have been pretty good all year. The Viking special

708
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: teams have been an absolute disaster disaster across the board.

709
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 2: I mean they can't even snap. It's bad. So give

710
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 2: me the Boys try to get over seven, but seven

711
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 2: or better plus seven a bet mgym for this.

712
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 4: This is an interesting game for me, Like I really

713
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 4: don't have a feel for what the Cowboys are going

714
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,240
Speaker 4: to come out and do off this by just because

715
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,959
Speaker 4: this is the first McCarthy like Cowboys by but also

716
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 4: we don't really know who their quarterback is going to be.

717
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:39,720
Speaker 4: But yeah, the Vikings, I mean they were lucky. Most teams,

718
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 4: you don't win a game where you only score what

719
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 4: was it twenty points and get a kick returned against

720
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 4: you for a touchdown. So the Vikings are kind of

721
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 4: in that cell high category. I do agree. I think

722
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 4: you can find this line some places at seven and

723
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 4: a half or greater. Would feel a lot more comfortable

724
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 4: about it there. But yeah, kind of waiting for a

725
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 4: more complete Cowboys performance. Now you know Dak's been out

726
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 4: for a while, you still have Zeke, You still have

727
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 4: these receivers getting a little bit healthier on defense. So

728
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 4: don't hate the pick. Probably not going to bet it,

729
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 4: but definitely don't hate it. And you can't bet the

730
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 4: Vikings in this spot. Everybody you fish one about and only.

731
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:25,879
Speaker 2: Thing else I got to say it, how about how

732
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 2: about them Cowboys?

733
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 4: Indeed, speaking of bad snaps, I am picking against a

734
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 4: team with the fourth overall pick of the week eleven

735
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 4: Sunday six pack that had a lot of trouble with

736
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 4: bad snaps last week, and I'm going with the Tennessee

737
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 4: Titans plus six and a half at the Baltimore Ravens.

738
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 4: I think there are a few things in this matchup

739
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:54,919
Speaker 4: that favor the Titans number one Baltimore. You know, first

740
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: they lose Ronnie Stanley. Then you know, last week they

741
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 4: lose Nick Boyle, who's a pretty big were in part

742
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 4: of their offense, you know, both pass blocking, run blocking,

743
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 4: and allows them to play, you know, with two tight

744
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 4: ends on the field because they're really not happy in

745
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 4: not getting as much production from the receivers as they

746
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 4: would like. But also Brandon Williams defensive tackle went down

747
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 4: as well, and that's that's a big loss when you're

748
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 4: going against Derreck Henry and his Titans offense. But beyond that,

749
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 4: you look at these two teams and the Ravens are

750
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 4: clearly the better six and three team with make no

751
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 4: mistake about it, than the Titans. However, catching six and

752
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,760
Speaker 4: a half on the road, you look at the Titans

753
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 4: and it might Vrabel and what he's been able to

754
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 4: do against this team last season when they you know,

755
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 4: everybody and their mama expected Baltimore to just cruise right

756
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 4: to the AFC Championship game and they came up with

757
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 4: a game plan that really stemied Lamar Jackson and that

758
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 4: was you know, going back to the playoffs last year.

759
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 4: You know, Lamar this year hasn't been the same quarterback

760
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 4: have the same success, i should say. And it kind

761
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 4: of started win that Tennessee game last year where you know,

762
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 4: they made him go to the outside. They took away

763
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 4: some of the things he likes to do, which again

764
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 4: with boil out is going to be you know, even

765
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 4: tougher to kind of do some of the things they

766
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 4: like to do. And then you look at Okay, Tennessee

767
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 4: can run the football with Derrick Henry Baltimore's run defense,

768
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 4: it won't be quite as good they could still cover.

769
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 4: But on the other side, Tennessee still still covering well,

770
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 4: you know, with Joseph out and King in. I think

771
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 4: that's a big improvement. They're actually ranked number two in

772
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 4: PFF and coverage grade. And that's not what Baltimore needs

773
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 4: right now, you know, because you look at the other

774
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 4: thing that I think is a major is going to

775
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 4: be a major factor in this game is the red

776
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 4: zone and Tennessee, we all know that they're one of

777
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,240
Speaker 4: the best teams in the red zone, have been pretty

778
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 4: much since Ryan Tannehill took over. Tennessee. Number two in

779
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 4: the league on offense in red zone conversion rate at

780
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 4: seventy six point five. Baltimore last on defense in red

781
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 4: zone conversion rate allowed at seventy six point two. So

782
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 4: you look at this game and you say, yeah, it's

783
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 4: a winnable game for Baltimore. Obviously they're a better six

784
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 4: and three team, but they've had trouble on offense. They're

785
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 4: missing one of their key guys, you know, even though

786
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 4: he's not like a popular guy. They're missing their tackle.

787
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 4: And if they can't keep go score for score with

788
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 4: Tennessee in the red zone there, they'll convert some third downs.

789
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 4: Tennessee still bad on third down defense, but if they

790
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 4: can't go blow for blow with them in the red zone,

791
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 4: this could end up a lot like that Patriots game

792
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 4: where you know, Ravens favored by nearly a touchdown or

793
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 4: a touchdown over the Patriots, who can run the ball

794
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 4: and are coached by you know, another guy who's Belichick himself.

795
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 4: You know, Rabel's not quite that. But you look at

796
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,800
Speaker 4: this matchup and it could play out similarly if the

797
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,800
Speaker 4: Ravens can't put up enough points and go score for score.

798
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 4: So I just think six and a half is too

799
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 4: many points in this matchup, like the spot for Tennessee

800
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 4: at Baltimore.

801
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean last week against the Patriots, a couple

802
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 2: of things happened with the Ravens. I mean they're the

803
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 2: number one. The league has kind of figured out Lamar

804
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 2: Jackson a little bit. I wrote that in my preview,

805
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 2: and what the Ravens want to do with their passing attack.

806
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 2: They're playing a lot more man and Jackson is just

807
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 2: you know, off the zone read. He anticipates throws really well.

808
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 2: He kind of shreads zone defenses. Now teams are playing

809
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 2: more man and it's they kind of know what's coming.

810
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 2: There's a lot more film they're forcing to throw in

811
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:38,320
Speaker 2: the tighter windows, and he hasn't been able to do

812
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 2: that so far. The receivers haven't been great, so the

813
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 2: passing offense hasn't been as good as last year. Now

814
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: the offensive line hasn't helped. You lose the number one,

815
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 2: the best left tackle in the NFL by almost every metric,

816
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 2: in Ronnie Stanley. So you got to move Orlando Brown

817
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 2: over there. He is a natural left tackle. But that

818
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 2: means you have Dj Schlucker right tackle. He got bench

819
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 2: last week he had he was armors wrapped. So now

820
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 2: you have McCarthy very undersized, he's basically a guard center

821
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 2: was playing right tackle. You have Tyree Phillips who's already

822
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 2: out at your guard. So you have Ben Powers who's

823
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 2: also undersize at right guard. And then you have Matt

824
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 2: Skurrett center, who can't even snap the ball anymore. It's

825
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 2: been two weeks in a row. So now all of

826
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 2: a sudden, you go from you know, a Hall of

827
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 2: Famer at guard and Marshall Yander and then you have

828
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 2: two of the best tackles in the NFL to basically

829
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 2: just down to like one reliable tackle, so the offensive

830
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 2: line is a shell of itself, which doesn't help the

831
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball. Before I bet this game,

832
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 2: I have to wait and see the Patriots were able

833
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 2: to just run up the middle. I tweeted immediately as

834
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:40,959
Speaker 2: soon as Brandon Williams went out, I said, the Ravens

835
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 2: run defense without Brandon Williams is a disaster. Always has been,

836
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 2: always will be. He eats blocks in the middle. Without

837
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,959
Speaker 2: him and Kalais Campbell, they're two best run defenders up front.

838
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 2: This defense can't stop the run, can't stuck. And that's

839
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 2: one of the reasons that you know they went out

840
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 2: and got Klass Campbell and those guys eat blocks for

841
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,320
Speaker 2: their linebackers who they drafted. They had to address this

842
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:03,320
Speaker 2: issue because it's basically what got them out of the playoffs,

843
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 2: trying to stop Derrick Henry and rushing attacks. But their

844
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 2: linebackers are a little underside, so if they're not getting

845
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 2: protection and able to move around, they're gonna get washed up.

846
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 2: And that's what happened against a really good offensive line

847
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 2: in the Patriots. Jimmy Smith, who's also been really good,

848
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 2: he's questionable. The Titans kind of on a downward spiral here.

849
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 2: I mean, look, I had have dowgrade the Ravens lote

850
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 2: just because this offensive line, the defensive line injuries are concerning.

851
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 2: We'll see who can go this week. But I make

852
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 2: the line around six, so I passed. It is a

853
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,399
Speaker 2: revenge game spot for the Ravens. But I mean that's

854
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 2: just narrative based stuff. I will say that in the

855
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 2: again they lost to the Titans last year, they had

856
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 2: like six hundred yards of offense and the Titans had

857
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 2: like two hundred. Ryan Tannhill through for like eighty and

858
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 2: the Ravens were like four and fourth down. They had

859
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 2: a bunch of turnovers, a very fluky game. If he

860
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 2: out gained them by like three hundred and fifty yards,

861
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 2: so they had no issues moving the ball in the Titans.

862
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 2: The Titans also had some offensive line injuries. Is Dory

863
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 2: Jackson on to play? Their corners are kind of a mess.

864
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 2: The defense just stinks overall. So it's two struggling units.

865
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,240
Speaker 2: Which one is gonna kind of step up the Titans

866
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 2: defense or is the Ravens offense gonna finally break out?

867
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 2: The last thing I'll say in this game, though, is

868
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,439
Speaker 2: one of the big advantages of this game, which could

869
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 2: end up making the difference special teams Titans special teams

870
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 2: is their thirty first dboa maybe the worst. They might

871
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 2: be the worst size of chargers in the NFL and

872
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 2: the Ravens out number two by the Dolphins oftens plush.

873
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 2: Team's been elite, but they might be the best NFL

874
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,320
Speaker 2: and just the kicker advantage, the punter advantage the Titans

875
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 2: if it's so bad on special teams, so keep your

876
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 2: eye off for that. I actually think the line is

877
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 2: about right, but a lot of injuries to keep track of,

878
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:40,839
Speaker 2: like with a lot of games this week.

879
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, now, the one, the one thing I always check,

880
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 4: you know, you have to do these days with the

881
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 4: Titans is Okay, how are miskicks gonna gonna affect them?

882
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 4: But that's one of the reasons I actually like them

883
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 4: in this matchup is because Baltimore is last in red

884
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 4: zone defense. So if there's a spot where the Titans

885
00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,360
Speaker 4: are gonna be able to finish drives and that's what

886
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 4: they're own four doing, it's in this one. So yeah,

887
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 4: I mean Tucker obviously, if it comes down to that,

888
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:08,760
Speaker 4: I'm taking Tucker all day. But I just think Tennessee

889
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 4: is going to be able to keep it close.

890
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you. All right,

891
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:18,319
Speaker 2: Let's move on for my third pick and the fifth

892
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 2: pick of the Sunday six pack. I'm going with the

893
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons plus five at bet MGM at the New

894
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 2: Orleans Saints. Winston's starting, so we'll be allowed to tackle

895
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 2: him at least and not get ridiculous personal ful calls

896
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 2: because Drew Brees once won and I know he was hurt,

897
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 2: but that still shouldn't have been a personal foul. But

898
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 2: podcast trend is back fade Winston as a favorite tenth

899
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:49,399
Speaker 2: least profitable quarterback in our database as a favorite seven

900
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,320
Speaker 2: fourteen and one against the spread, two and six against

901
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 2: the spread as a favorite over a field goal. He's

902
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 2: just twelve and ten straight up as a favorite. High

903
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,439
Speaker 2: variant Skuy. You want to take him as a dog,

904
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:01,240
Speaker 2: you want to face him as a face. Really interesting

905
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 2: game though, from a lot of different angles. The Saints,

906
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 2: by the way, I have historically good run defense top

907
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 2: ten DVOA of all time, number one in the NFL

908
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 2: this year. You can't run against them. Davenporton Jordan are

909
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 2: so good off the edge against the run, ending getting

910
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 2: the quarterback as good as it gets as a pair

911
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 2: of defensive ends. And then you know you have Hendrickson

912
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:24,239
Speaker 2: backing them up as well. You've you know, you moved,

913
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 2: they moved Davin Board all over the place. He's just

914
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 2: a hell of a player now that he's backing this

915
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 2: the first part of the season. Davis Tomorrow, Davis an

916
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,399
Speaker 2: elite linebacker. You have Malcolm Jenkins who will basically play

917
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 2: up at the box, very good against the run. So

918
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 2: Marcus Williams one of the most underrated safeties in the NFL.

919
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 2: He's a leite against the run. You now have Kwan

920
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 2: Alexander there, Bye bye Angeloni, you won't play anymore. And

921
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,439
Speaker 2: then the defensive line in the interior you have only

922
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 2: Monte Brown, Rankins, Tuddle. They're all monsters. Huge is eight block.

923
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 2: You can't run on this team. That's good for the

924
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 2: Falcons because Todd Gurley is basically granted out as the

925
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 2: worst running back in the NFL this year. They're not

926
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 2: gonna have to run it. That's fine, That's what I want.

927
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 2: I want the off throwing it. Matt Ryan's been on

928
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 2: fire with this passing offense over the past few weeks.

929
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 2: I think Lilly's gonna go ye practice today should go.

930
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 2: If Saints have had issues in pass defense, this is

931
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 2: how you can get to them at times, because look,

932
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 2: Jenkins has been good, but what like Marshawn Latiberg. I

933
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 2: still can't figure out. He's so inconsistent. He's been bad

934
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,879
Speaker 2: this year. I know Patrick Robinson is back, but even

935
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 2: in the slot, they've been bad. With Gardner Johnson, he

936
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 2: hasn't been great. So I think this Falcons offense will

937
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:28,320
Speaker 2: be able to move the ball through the air. I

938
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 2: think abandoning the run is going to be a good

939
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 2: thing here. They're not gonna be able to run it,

940
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 2: trust me. And then on the other side of the ball,

941
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 2: it's Jamis time. So how's this going to work? He's

942
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:41,319
Speaker 2: the complete opposite quarterback of what Drew Brees is right.

943
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:45,800
Speaker 2: This is a short, quick passing attack that requires short,

944
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:48,799
Speaker 2: accurate passes. That was the opposite of what Winston did.

945
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:53,839
Speaker 2: A body's downfield, high variance quarterback past five years since

946
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 2: he came to the league, most interceptions, top ten touchdowns,

947
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 2: highest average depth of target third to last, and Justic

948
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 2: copletion percentage third to last in adjust the completion presuance

949
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 2: with a clean pocket, which you should have. Saints e

950
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,760
Speaker 2: leit offensive line. Falcons get no pressure unless it's Grady Jarrett.

951
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 2: So maybe Grady Jack can cause some problems up the middle.

952
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:15,800
Speaker 2: But you know, lowest average yards after catch, doesn't know

953
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:19,919
Speaker 2: that's because he's some inaccurate, doesn't always take the easy throw,

954
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 2: which is really what you do in the Saints offense.

955
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:25,319
Speaker 2: So it's interesting to see how that's gonna play out.

956
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 2: But he's just not that accurate of a quarterback. He

957
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 2: will make mistakes. That's why he's just a good fit.

958
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:32,400
Speaker 2: Is a favorite, and I think it's gonna take I

959
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 2: don't know, Like if they're Saints, are gonn also probably

960
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 2: use a lot of Taysom Hill. They're gonna have to

961
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 2: rework their offense for Winston.

962
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 4: I don't know.

963
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 2: It's all in a week, so I think that there's

964
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 2: gonna be some some growing paints here. Falcons D is

965
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 2: playing better of late and their run d's playing good.

966
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 2: Top ten dboa six the Justed Liners first some power rank.

967
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 2: They get no pressure and I know foul will be out,

968
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 2: but who cares? But their d's playing better, and it's

969
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:59,320
Speaker 2: their linebackers. Starts with their linebackers. They've started blitzing a

970
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 2: lot more, and that's what they need to do. They

971
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 2: don't get natural edge pressure. It's just Grady Jarrett. And

972
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 2: ever since that Lions game, they're using more exotic blitzes.

973
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:09,879
Speaker 2: You know, Kean O'Neil is coming down on the box

974
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:12,760
Speaker 2: and blitzing more. You know, you're using Jones and Olakin

975
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 2: to blitz and maybe they can get the wins and

976
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 2: force them into some mistakes. But I think there's gonna

977
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 2: be some growing pains for the Saints. Falcons also off

978
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:22,440
Speaker 2: of a bye here, and look, this is this team's

979
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 2: better than people think. They've just had a ton of

980
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:28,359
Speaker 2: unlucky losses. Dan Quinn just fucking up the games as

981
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 2: he did when he was there. Defense trending up, I

982
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 2: think a little bit. And I think they'll be able

983
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 2: to move the ball through the air. A band in

984
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,320
Speaker 2: the run is a good thing here. So give me

985
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 2: the Falcons plus five.

986
00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that defense is playing a lot better.

987
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 4: I mean, you look at the first four games in

988
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:47,760
Speaker 4: simple points allowed and it was thirty eight, forty, thirty

989
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 4: thirty for an average of thirty four and a half

990
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 4: under Dan Quinn and then since Morris takes over twenty three,

991
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 4: twenty three, twenty three, seventeen twenty seven, an average of

992
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 4: twenty two two point six, a difference of eleven point

993
00:50:03,880 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 4: nine points. And I know they played, you know, some

994
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 4: different competition, but there's still a marked difference in the

995
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:11,799
Speaker 4: defense under these two coaches. And we saw a little

996
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 4: bit of that last year when Morris took on more

997
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:16,279
Speaker 4: of a role in that defense over the second half

998
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 4: and essentially saved Quinn's job for another four games. So, uh, yeah,

999
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 4: I like the Falcons here. I think that you look

1000
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:28,479
Speaker 4: at Jamis and it's going to be a struggle because

1001
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 4: the Falcons another one of those defenses that if they

1002
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 4: struggle in an area, it's really the red zone. They're

1003
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 4: one of the worst red zone defenses, but they.

1004
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 2: Are one of the better and offenses. Jesus Chris case

1005
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:39,879
Speaker 2: they got a touchdown, well.

1006
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 4: You expect that to regress a little bit, I think,

1007
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,839
Speaker 4: but you know, just giving the weapons they have. But yeah,

1008
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 4: their third down defense is actually eighth best at thirty

1009
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 4: eight point seven percent conversions allowed. So uh, you know,

1010
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 4: if you're Jameis Winston. You're gonna have to drive down

1011
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:00,439
Speaker 4: the field against a tough third down defense and women

1012
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 4: at the turnovers to get to the red zone area.

1013
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 4: So that's not necessarily Jamis's game. So yeah, I like

1014
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:10,400
Speaker 4: the falcon and the spot as well. Another team, I

1015
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:14,520
Speaker 4: wouldn't be surprised if they pull out the outright upset.

1016
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:18,399
Speaker 3: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want

1017
00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 3: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast

1018
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:23,919
Speaker 3: network Locked on as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

1019
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:26,319
Speaker 2: Welcome to you Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

1020
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:28,359
Speaker 2: ONWN of the Dallas Matage. Welcome everybody for the Locked

1021
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:29,320
Speaker 2: On Lakers podcast.

1022
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 4: Let's Go.

1023
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,279
Speaker 3: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

1024
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 3: know your team better than anyone and give you the

1025
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:38,400
Speaker 3: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

1026
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 3: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

1027
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 4: All right, For the sixth and final pick, my third

1028
00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 4: pick of the week eleven Sunday six pack, I am

1029
00:51:55,760 --> 00:52:00,240
Speaker 4: going with the Cincinnati Bengals plus two at the Washington

1030
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 4: football team. This is just another spot where I look

1031
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 4: at these two teams and it's a toss up game.

1032
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,440
Speaker 4: You talked about it last week. I believe it was

1033
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 4: home field advantage hasn't really been worth as much as

1034
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 4: it has historically in the past. And you look at

1035
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:18,520
Speaker 4: these two teams in the schedules they've faced, and Washington's

1036
00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 4: wins came against Philly back in Week one in a

1037
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:24,440
Speaker 4: game they fell behind seventeen zip and Philly basically handed

1038
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,240
Speaker 4: it to them. And then Dallas with Dalton and Dalton

1039
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:30,399
Speaker 4: going down and giving way to Denucci in that one,

1040
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 4: they win, you know, twenty five to three.

1041
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 2: I think it was so.

1042
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 4: And then but in their last five games, they also

1043
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:39,719
Speaker 4: have two losses to the three and seven Giants, and

1044
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 4: they have a loss to the four and five Lions.

1045
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:45,799
Speaker 4: And in their last two games, those Giants outscored them

1046
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 4: twenty to three in the first half, and then the

1047
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 4: Lions outscored them twenty four to three in the first

1048
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 4: after the football team got outscored by a combined score

1049
00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 4: of forty seven to six out of the gate by

1050
00:52:57,600 --> 00:53:00,840
Speaker 4: the Giants and Lions over the last last two weeks.

1051
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 4: Now you look at the Bengals, Okay, they're two and six,

1052
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:07,960
Speaker 4: not great, they're losses eight and oh, Pittsburgh six and three,

1053
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 4: Baltimore six and three, Cleveland twice, six and three, Indianapolis.

1054
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 4: Only the Chargers have a winning percentage worse than sixty

1055
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:20,440
Speaker 4: seven percent. In terms of teams Bengals. The Bengals have

1056
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:22,359
Speaker 4: lost to and remember that came down to a kick

1057
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:26,120
Speaker 4: at the end. That game could have easily gone the

1058
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 4: other way. So you look at these two teams, and

1059
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:32,279
Speaker 4: the Bengals I think are the better team. They're getting two,

1060
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:35,440
Speaker 4: they're two top linemen back and their tackles Bobby Hart

1061
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:39,239
Speaker 4: and Jonah Williams. So yeah, the Washington front strength of

1062
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 4: their defense, but you'll be able to neutralize that some.

1063
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 4: Compared to these last few weeks when Burrow's just been

1064
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,359
Speaker 4: under siege and we know we can make plays moving

1065
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:51,719
Speaker 4: around and this team, the game plans for Washington out

1066
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 4: the gate have not been good. And the Bengals issue

1067
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 4: last week especially was against Pittsburgh. They're just playing this

1068
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 4: off coverage on their receivers for some inexplicable reason, and

1069
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 4: they're too talented and they made him pay. Well, what

1070
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:08,000
Speaker 4: is Washington. One of Washington's big weaknesses the passing game.

1071
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 4: They have one receiver, Terry McLaurin. Besides that, I mean

1072
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:14,720
Speaker 4: you're talking Cam Sims, who's coming on nicely, and Steven

1073
00:54:14,840 --> 00:54:17,240
Speaker 4: Sims and Isaiah Wright just a whole bunch of replacement

1074
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 4: level talent, Logan Thomas, the converted cornerback at tight end.

1075
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:23,799
Speaker 4: I mean, this is easily a game Cincinnati can win.

1076
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:26,520
Speaker 4: Similar to that Jaguars game a few weeks back. This

1077
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:29,400
Speaker 4: is easily a winnable game for Cincinnati. And let's not

1078
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 4: forget you know, Cincinnati hanging close with a bunch of

1079
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 4: the best teams in the NFL, and they beat the

1080
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 4: six and three Titans, who cranited aren't as good as

1081
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 4: their six and three record, but that just shows that

1082
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:43,759
Speaker 4: this football team, an overrated football team, is in a

1083
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,719
Speaker 4: whole different class. This is a game I think Cincinnati

1084
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 4: can win. Love them as two point dogs.

1085
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 2: Jed, you mentioned home field advantage, by the way, underdog's

1086
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 2: fifty five percent of the year, overs fifty three percent

1087
00:54:55,640 --> 00:55:00,239
Speaker 2: against the spread, spread road teams fifty three percent. Teams

1088
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:01,879
Speaker 2: won eleven and three last week, so these are still

1089
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:03,920
Speaker 2: small sample size, so that corrected a little bit. So

1090
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 2: road teams have won forty eight percent of games this year.

1091
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:11,239
Speaker 2: They're negative forty nine points overall. That's about half a

1092
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:14,759
Speaker 2: point per game. Historically it's about Since two three, it's

1093
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 2: about two point four points per game, and they've won

1094
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:19,479
Speaker 2: forty three percent, so that would imply I Hopefield's about

1095
00:55:19,480 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 2: a half a point this year on average, and are

1096
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:23,879
Speaker 2: I think it's still closer to a point one week.

1097
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 2: It can really swing this, but just wanted to throw

1098
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:27,759
Speaker 2: that out there. I actually disagree with this play now.

1099
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:31,280
Speaker 2: It's going to depend on some injuries that I'm watching.

1100
00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:34,799
Speaker 2: And since Alex Smith got hurt in week eleven, twenty eighteen,

1101
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 2: and Washington was six and three, these are the two

1102
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:38,520
Speaker 2: worst teams in the NFL since he five twenty six

1103
00:55:38,600 --> 00:55:40,719
Speaker 2: and one, Washington six and twenty six. So this is

1104
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 2: the toilet Bowl to see who's been the worst. But

1105
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 2: Smith is at least have looked better. He's throwing for

1106
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:47,879
Speaker 2: three twenty five and three ninety the past two games.

1107
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:51,120
Speaker 2: You mentioned Logan Thomas, maybe he can have a good

1108
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 2: game since he can't cover tight ends at all, and

1109
00:55:54,640 --> 00:55:57,320
Speaker 2: Smith loves targeting his tight ends and loves targeting Thomas.

1110
00:55:58,040 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 2: But the offensive line has been really good since Sheriff

1111
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:03,319
Speaker 2: came back. I think these are two bets. I rate

1112
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:06,680
Speaker 2: Washington football team higher and I think they are too

1113
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 2: bad offenses. I think that, but Washington is the better

1114
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:13,320
Speaker 2: offensive line since he has the better receivers and better quarterback.

1115
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 2: But the only elite union in his game is the

1116
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:20,439
Speaker 2: Washington defense. The top five DVOA against the pass. We've

1117
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,040
Speaker 2: mentioned their defensive line. They can get pressure. I mean

1118
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 2: Settle Pain and Allen up the middle. They're going to

1119
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 2: cause problems for Burrow. And since he's not gonna get

1120
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,240
Speaker 2: any pressure regardless, I mean the thirtieth and adjusted sackery,

1121
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 2: the thirty first and adjusted lineyards team stinks. They had

1122
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 2: no defensive linebacker. Defensive stinks. And I think Burrow's hurt.

1123
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:38,360
Speaker 2: He's been banged up. Last week. He get he was

1124
00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 2: limping around. He didn't run once. He was overthrowing everything

1125
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 2: against the Steelers. After he got banged up, he got

1126
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:47,360
Speaker 2: rolled up on his ankle. He says it's not an issue,

1127
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 2: but I mean he's taken a lot of wear and

1128
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:53,839
Speaker 2: tear here. So I think the Washington can get after him.

1129
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:57,480
Speaker 2: And I think Washington wins this game. Mixing who knows

1130
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 2: these day to day as well, But I think I disagree.

1131
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 2: I think Washington's gonna.

1132
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:04,799
Speaker 4: I mean, I think you're overthinking it. Washington team has

1133
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:09,319
Speaker 4: been terrible against pretty bad competition. Cincinnati has been bad

1134
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:14,839
Speaker 4: against good competition, like pressure, like Washington's oh line. It's

1135
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 4: not like since he's not gonna get pressure.

1136
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 2: We know that.

1137
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:19,840
Speaker 4: But I just think that the coaching for Washington hasn't

1138
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 4: been great. Alex Smith, I mean, all his yards have

1139
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 4: come because they've gotten down by twenty by double digits

1140
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 4: to bad teams early in games. I mean that you're

1141
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:32,120
Speaker 4: gonna get yards. I just I think Cincinnati, first of

1142
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 4: all their receivers. You know, Washington, for all that good

1143
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 4: defensive front there, they haven't been stopping people, you know,

1144
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 4: the way they should. On defense. You can still beat

1145
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 4: their secondary. Cincinnati is the perfect kind of setup to

1146
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:46,919
Speaker 4: do it. They can spread you out. They're both bad, Yeah,

1147
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:48,920
Speaker 4: they're both bad. But there's one elite unit here and

1148
00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:51,920
Speaker 4: that's Washington defense. And I think Burrow's banged up. I

1149
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 4: think you're gonna see. I mean that's fair. I mean

1150
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 4: I just watched that game. I I think Pittsburgh just

1151
00:57:57,760 --> 00:57:59,440
Speaker 4: is a really good defense got him off his game.

1152
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 4: But we shall see. To recap the week of even

1153
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:07,080
Speaker 4: Sunday six Pack Jacksonville plus nine at home against Pittsburgh

1154
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:10,320
Speaker 4: for Stuckey, along with Dallas plus seven at Minnesota and

1155
00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:13,880
Speaker 4: the Falcons plus five at New Orleans. I'm going with

1156
00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:16,720
Speaker 4: the Eagles plus three and a half at Cleveland, the

1157
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 4: Titans plus six and a half at Baltimore, and the

1158
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 4: Bengals plus two at Washington. Remember you can follow all

1159
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 4: of our picks in the Action Network app get search

1160
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 4: for Sunday six pack in the follow tab. All picks

1161
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:37,560
Speaker 4: will be entered by the end of the day on Friday.

1162
00:58:37,640 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 4: Next up our favorite over unders of the week. So

1163
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 4: I'll go first with the total, and this kind of

1164
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 4: plays into what we spoke about earlier with Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.

1165
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:49,360
Speaker 4: In the Tomlin spots. We expect Pittsburgh to come out

1166
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 4: a little bit flat, then I am expecting that to

1167
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:55,600
Speaker 4: show more on the offensive side of the ball. I'm

1168
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 4: going under forty six and a half Pittsburgh Jacksonville. You

1169
00:58:59,640 --> 00:59:02,240
Speaker 4: look at Mike tom Win rolled unders, and this again

1170
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 4: plays into these tom Win spots. But when the total is,

1171
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 4: you know, kind of mid range forty three and a

1172
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 4: half to fifty one, the under is forty fourteen and

1173
00:59:12,280 --> 00:59:17,000
Speaker 4: one seventy four percent uh in his career, Pittsburgh fifteenth

1174
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 4: in neutral pace, twenty first with a lead of seven

1175
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:23,120
Speaker 4: or more, Jacksonville twenty sixth in neutral pace, and again

1176
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 4: Lutan has struggled under pressure, So don't necessarily think Jacksonville

1177
00:59:28,000 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 4: like outscores their expectation either. So going under forty six

1178
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 4: and a half steers Jaggs.

1179
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:36,360
Speaker 2: For my favorite over under of the week, I'm going

1180
00:59:36,440 --> 00:59:42,040
Speaker 2: with the Dolphins Broncos under forty five and a half.

1181
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:46,080
Speaker 2: Drew Locke probably not gonna go. I don't think there's

1182
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:49,080
Speaker 2: that much of a drop off or upgrade or improvement

1183
00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 2: between him and Brett Rippin, but I do think that

1184
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 2: they'll probably just go really conservative. Here. Look what Miami does.

1185
00:59:54,800 --> 00:59:57,800
Speaker 2: It's it's the Patriots defenses from the last few years.

1186
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:00,760
Speaker 2: They're two of the best corners the NFL. There safeties

1187
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 2: McCain and row are both great in the top ten

1188
01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:08,360
Speaker 2: and coverage in some of the advanced metrics that they cover,

1189
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:10,360
Speaker 2: and then they blitz you. They just come at you. So,

1190
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:12,919
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what either Ripping or lock,

1191
01:00:13,520 --> 01:00:16,000
Speaker 2: who are not going to be blocks been awful under pressure.

1192
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 2: I assume Ripping will be as well. So I think

1193
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 2: they're gonna go run heavy here. And on the other

1194
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,440
Speaker 2: side of the ball, the Denver defense is getting healthier

1195
01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 2: on the back end. And look, you can look at

1196
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:28,360
Speaker 2: any metric in the world that you want by The

1197
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:31,840
Speaker 2: offense has been so much worse with Tua. It's incredible.

1198
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,960
Speaker 2: But he's gotten away with it because teams keep dropping picks,

1199
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:38,960
Speaker 2: they keep scoring defensive touchdowns. It keeps going special teams touchdowns.

1200
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:43,240
Speaker 2: From a DVA perspective, like their offensive production has dropped

1201
01:00:43,280 --> 01:00:45,600
Speaker 2: off a clip with their defensive production, and their special

1202
01:00:45,680 --> 01:00:47,800
Speaker 2: teams is going way up. Yes, that's two a time.

1203
01:00:48,400 --> 01:00:51,040
Speaker 2: It is worth doting. The Miami special teams have been amazing,

1204
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:54,680
Speaker 2: amazing Sanders can't miss Jack Keem Grant's been amazing. Returning

1205
01:00:54,720 --> 01:00:57,560
Speaker 2: the ball has been great. Punting it in the Broncos

1206
01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:00,400
Speaker 2: besides people kicking their special teams has been a disaster.

1207
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:04,400
Speaker 2: But I think Broncos goes super conservative here. I think

1208
01:01:04,440 --> 01:01:07,880
Speaker 2: their defense will come to play. I don't think the

1209
01:01:07,920 --> 01:01:10,120
Speaker 2: Dolphins will keep getting lucky with these defensive and special

1210
01:01:10,160 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 2: teams touchdowns. But their defense is really good, their offense

1211
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:16,800
Speaker 2: is not. I think Denver goes. I think Denver goes conservatives.

1212
01:01:16,840 --> 01:01:21,400
Speaker 2: These teams go slou. It's an ugly ish game in

1213
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:22,960
Speaker 2: Denver here, so give me the under there.

1214
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:26,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like that too. I like Miami as well.

1215
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 4: I think, yeah, their offense hasn't been as good with TUA,

1216
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 4: but they're like, they're well coached and well coached teams,

1217
01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 4: tend to be good on special teams and tend to

1218
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:38,080
Speaker 4: be good on defense. And I'm expecting like a twenty

1219
01:01:38,680 --> 01:01:41,840
Speaker 4: twenty four to ten type of game where Miami does

1220
01:01:41,920 --> 01:01:44,880
Speaker 4: get some short fields and Denver, I mean, they just can't.

1221
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:48,320
Speaker 4: They can't operate if they're not getting you know, like,

1222
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:51,120
Speaker 4: if they're getting the wrong side of the turnovers and

1223
01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:54,560
Speaker 4: the wrong side of the field position, they're not going

1224
01:01:54,640 --> 01:01:57,080
Speaker 4: to score very many points on this defense. So yeah,

1225
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:59,280
Speaker 4: I like it too. I think I think Miami just

1226
01:02:00,000 --> 01:02:02,400
Speaker 4: who wins an ugly one here. Those are our favorite

1227
01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:05,320
Speaker 4: totals of the week. Stuck going with Miami Denver under

1228
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 4: forty five and a half, and I'm going Steelers Jags

1229
01:02:07,920 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 4: under forty six and a half. Now it's time for

1230
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:14,160
Speaker 4: our favorite teaser of the week.

1231
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1232
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:20,800
Speaker 4: All right, for those not familiar teasers, when you combine

1233
01:02:20,840 --> 01:02:23,240
Speaker 4: two or more bets and each bet gets an extra

1234
01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:26,960
Speaker 4: six points or however many points you're teasing towards the spread. So,

1235
01:02:27,080 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 4: for example, in a six point teaser, if you're teasing

1236
01:02:30,360 --> 01:02:32,960
Speaker 4: an eight point favorite, they become a two point favorite,

1237
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:36,560
Speaker 4: and an eight point underdog becomes a fourteen point underdog.

1238
01:02:36,600 --> 01:02:40,200
Speaker 4: Stuck has some great content at actionnetwork dot com that

1239
01:02:40,360 --> 01:02:44,400
Speaker 4: you can check out if you are interested in learning

1240
01:02:44,560 --> 01:02:48,520
Speaker 4: exactly how which key numbers to look.

1241
01:02:48,440 --> 01:02:49,320
Speaker 2: For on teasers.

1242
01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:51,680
Speaker 4: But Stuck, who are you going with for your two

1243
01:02:51,760 --> 01:02:53,960
Speaker 4: team six point teaser in week eleven?

1244
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:57,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, basically went across three and seven, which I was

1245
01:02:57,560 --> 01:03:00,920
Speaker 2: able to do with two teams. Here, she's the Chargers

1246
01:03:01,000 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 2: down from eight and a half to two and a half.

1247
01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:07,040
Speaker 2: Flacco should start charters, probably gonna find a way to

1248
01:03:07,040 --> 01:03:08,560
Speaker 2: be in a close game. I think that they should

1249
01:03:08,560 --> 01:03:11,400
Speaker 2: beat the Chief the Jets here. Jets are off of bye,

1250
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:13,480
Speaker 2: but I'm comfortable with taking the Chargers minus two and

1251
01:03:13,520 --> 01:03:15,880
Speaker 2: a half. And then the other one is the Packers.

1252
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:19,240
Speaker 2: Give me Aaron Rodgers plus eight plus eight and a half. Here,

1253
01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:22,960
Speaker 2: it's a really interesting game. The Packers Rundy again is

1254
01:03:23,000 --> 01:03:25,600
Speaker 2: a disaster disaster, and they're playing like they played like

1255
01:03:25,680 --> 01:03:28,440
Speaker 2: this two four six a lot and then there were

1256
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 2: three four five. Dean Lowry's a ghost. Preston Smith is

1257
01:03:31,640 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 2: a ghost. I mean their rundy is atrocious. Troches so

1258
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:39,960
Speaker 2: bad just scheme wise, personnel wise. But the Colts run

1259
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:43,800
Speaker 2: offense has not been good. It's shocking. They're twenty seventh

1260
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:46,640
Speaker 2: in line yards and look if you they're three point

1261
01:03:46,640 --> 01:03:48,400
Speaker 2: eight yards per carry, twenty ninth in the NFL. They

1262
01:03:48,440 --> 01:03:51,640
Speaker 2: faced a very easy schedule too. Jonathan Taylor twenty point

1263
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:54,480
Speaker 2: four elusive rating. That's thirty third out of thirty four

1264
01:03:54,560 --> 01:03:57,240
Speaker 2: running backs least seventy five carries. The only one worse

1265
01:03:57,440 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 2: Adrian Peterson. You also Jonathan Tail two one yards after

1266
01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:04,080
Speaker 2: contact on average, since that's dead last. So the Colts

1267
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 2: defense is very good, but on a fast track against

1268
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 2: his zone d By the way, Devonte Adams bounce back game,

1269
01:04:10,960 --> 01:04:13,760
Speaker 2: he owns Zavier Roads. Davy Roads literally has nightmares about DeVonta.

1270
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 2: Adams should have a big game to get Lazard back.

1271
01:04:16,680 --> 01:04:19,040
Speaker 2: Colts really haven't played anybody, and I know the Packers

1272
01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:20,760
Speaker 2: special team is bad, which is something to keep in

1273
01:04:20,840 --> 01:04:23,080
Speaker 2: mind here, but Rodgers should at least keep this within

1274
01:04:23,360 --> 01:04:25,200
Speaker 2: one possession, if not win the game out right, So

1275
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 2: Packers over a touchdown, Chargers under a field goal.

1276
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:32,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going with the Chargers as well. I like

1277
01:04:32,280 --> 01:04:35,160
Speaker 4: them against the Jets Adam gas four and eighteen as

1278
01:04:35,200 --> 01:04:38,760
Speaker 4: a road underdog against the spread when it's five and

1279
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:41,960
Speaker 4: a half or more, including zero to four this season,

1280
01:04:42,040 --> 01:04:44,720
Speaker 4: so there should be some cushion there. But do not

1281
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:47,120
Speaker 4: want to bet the Chargers is eight and a half

1282
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:51,760
Speaker 4: point favors. That's just ugly, especially since they've not been covering.

1283
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:54,960
Speaker 4: Going with the Vikings season them down from seven to one.

1284
01:04:56,160 --> 01:04:58,120
Speaker 4: You're probably a little more bullish on the Cowboys than

1285
01:04:58,120 --> 01:05:00,360
Speaker 4: I on but either way, I think I still see

1286
01:05:00,360 --> 01:05:02,840
Speaker 4: the Vikings winning this game, so I like them at

1287
01:05:03,200 --> 01:05:06,640
Speaker 4: minus one. So Chargers down to two and a half,

1288
01:05:06,800 --> 01:05:07,880
Speaker 4: Vikings down to one.

1289
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:11,640
Speaker 2: Yeah. By the way, gire Alexander and Kevin King two

1290
01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 2: starting corners. The Packers should be back this week.

1291
01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:19,440
Speaker 4: All right, So stucks season Packers plus eight, Chargers minus

1292
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:21,880
Speaker 4: two and a half, and I'm going Vikes minus one,

1293
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:24,919
Speaker 4: Chargers minus two and a half. Now it is time

1294
01:05:25,040 --> 01:05:28,080
Speaker 4: for our money line underdog parlay.

1295
01:05:31,200 --> 01:05:36,080
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1296
01:05:36,320 --> 01:05:38,760
Speaker 1: money line parlay, all.

1297
01:05:38,720 --> 01:05:42,959
Speaker 4: Right, money line underdogs. Who you got this week's step.

1298
01:05:43,840 --> 01:05:46,880
Speaker 2: This line goes on and off the board. They're gonna

1299
01:05:46,880 --> 01:05:48,720
Speaker 2: be a small road underdog here. But give me the

1300
01:05:48,760 --> 01:05:54,480
Speaker 2: Detroit Lions plus one fifteen plus one twenty ish at Carolina.

1301
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:57,919
Speaker 2: I've mentioned this Carolina defense regression is coming. Oh boy,

1302
01:05:58,440 --> 01:06:01,000
Speaker 2: we saw it last week against Tampa. Brady could have

1303
01:06:01,040 --> 01:06:03,320
Speaker 2: had about eight hundred yards if you wanted, and they

1304
01:06:03,360 --> 01:06:03,960
Speaker 2: have injuries.

1305
01:06:04,040 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 4: Now.

1306
01:06:04,240 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 2: I don't think Dante Jackson is gonna go. And there's

1307
01:06:06,680 --> 01:06:09,080
Speaker 2: just a lot of variants in this game. Teddy Bridgewater,

1308
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:09,720
Speaker 2: is he gonna go?

1309
01:06:09,920 --> 01:06:10,240
Speaker 4: Is he not?

1310
01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:12,920
Speaker 2: I would think no, even if it's if it's kind

1311
01:06:12,920 --> 01:06:14,040
Speaker 2: of up in the air, and then you got PJ.

1312
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 2: Walker will be quarterback Bridge. They're three and seven now, Bridgewater,

1313
01:06:17,880 --> 01:06:19,920
Speaker 2: they paid a lot of money to why kind of

1314
01:06:19,960 --> 01:06:23,400
Speaker 2: rush him back here? Stafford apparently is a go Galladay.

1315
01:06:23,480 --> 01:06:25,080
Speaker 2: I don't know, you know better than me. A lot

1316
01:06:25,160 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 2: of moving parts here. I just think this is a

1317
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:30,919
Speaker 2: and the Allion's defense has been really bad. Coin Flint game.

1318
01:06:31,160 --> 01:06:33,439
Speaker 2: I think there's a better chance that Stafford will play

1319
01:06:33,600 --> 01:06:38,240
Speaker 2: more effectively and win a game of two bad defenses.

1320
01:06:38,320 --> 01:06:40,600
Speaker 2: So I'll take the plus money. I think it's a

1321
01:06:40,640 --> 01:06:42,760
Speaker 2: good game with a lot of variants to take the

1322
01:06:43,400 --> 01:06:45,120
Speaker 2: the underdog. Do you have an update on Galladay?

1323
01:06:45,200 --> 01:06:47,240
Speaker 4: By the way, Galladay looks like he's gonna go. He

1324
01:06:47,360 --> 01:06:52,480
Speaker 4: returned to practice, so we're looking at McCaffrey out for Carolina,

1325
01:06:52,720 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 4: and then Bridgewater did practice on a limited basis. But yeah,

1326
01:06:55,800 --> 01:06:57,920
Speaker 4: I would kind of be surprised if they throw him

1327
01:06:57,960 --> 01:07:00,880
Speaker 4: out there and what amounts to a meetingless game. Stafford

1328
01:07:00,960 --> 01:07:03,800
Speaker 4: probably gonna go the issue, shouldn't keep him out. So

1329
01:07:04,480 --> 01:07:06,880
Speaker 4: it looks like Detroit should have a little fuller deck

1330
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:10,280
Speaker 4: because Carolina is definitely going to be missing McCaffrey. And

1331
01:07:10,360 --> 01:07:13,320
Speaker 4: speaking of variants, for my moneyline, dog, I'm going with

1332
01:07:13,440 --> 01:07:16,080
Speaker 4: those Falcons that you picked in the six pack plus

1333
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:19,440
Speaker 4: one to seventy five at New Orleans. It's really simple.

1334
01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:23,200
Speaker 4: Falcon has been playing better on defense, only allowed more

1335
01:07:23,280 --> 01:07:26,440
Speaker 4: than twenty three points once in the last five games.

1336
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:29,080
Speaker 4: And you have New Orleans going from Drew Brees to

1337
01:07:29,480 --> 01:07:34,160
Speaker 4: some combination of Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston, and Jameis

1338
01:07:34,160 --> 01:07:37,880
Speaker 4: Winston in particular known for giving away winnable games, and

1339
01:07:38,600 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 4: you know, other than you know Drew Brees, like these

1340
01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:45,680
Speaker 4: teams match up decently. I mean, you have Atlanta who

1341
01:07:45,760 --> 01:07:48,680
Speaker 4: can stop them on third down and can play shoot

1342
01:07:48,720 --> 01:07:51,360
Speaker 4: up ball, which you if need be. And you know,

1343
01:07:51,520 --> 01:07:54,240
Speaker 4: does it need to run necessarily an offense to be successful.

1344
01:07:54,320 --> 01:07:59,080
Speaker 4: So gimme Atlanta playing a lot better under head coach

1345
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:03,680
Speaker 4: Raheem Morris at plus one seventy five, that parway, by

1346
01:08:03,720 --> 01:08:07,840
Speaker 4: the way, would be nearly five to one. About four

1347
01:08:08,080 --> 01:08:11,840
Speaker 4: point nine to one payout if you bet the Falcons

1348
01:08:12,000 --> 01:08:16,120
Speaker 4: plus one seventy five and the Lions plus one fifteen.

1349
01:08:18,240 --> 01:08:22,839
Speaker 2: Hello Detroit, you one.

1350
01:08:25,320 --> 01:08:29,200
Speaker 4: This week's coaches pep Talk. This week's pep talk is

1351
01:08:29,320 --> 01:08:35,479
Speaker 4: from the two thousand and nineteen film Ford v. Ferrari. Well,

1352
01:08:35,600 --> 01:08:36,639
Speaker 4: my daddy was here today.

1353
01:08:37,320 --> 01:08:39,439
Speaker 6: Hey tell me to set on down and leave the

1354
01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:40,759
Speaker 6: act to the college boys.

1355
01:08:40,880 --> 01:08:44,000
Speaker 2: So black my cars. I'll make this fast.

1356
01:08:44,840 --> 01:08:47,000
Speaker 6: When I was ten years old, Pop said to my son,

1357
01:08:48,080 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 6: it's a truly lucky man who knows what he wants

1358
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:52,880
Speaker 6: to do in this world, because that man will never

1359
01:08:52,920 --> 01:08:53,160
Speaker 6: work a.

1360
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:53,800
Speaker 2: Day in his life.

1361
01:08:54,560 --> 01:08:57,760
Speaker 6: But there are a few, precious few, and hell, I

1362
01:08:57,760 --> 01:09:00,519
Speaker 6: don't know if they're lucky or not, but there are

1363
01:09:00,560 --> 01:09:02,439
Speaker 6: a few people who find something they have to do

1364
01:09:03,760 --> 01:09:08,559
Speaker 6: some obsessism something. If they can't do it, it's gonna

1365
01:09:08,600 --> 01:09:12,080
Speaker 6: drop and clean out of their mind. I'm that guy,

1366
01:09:13,760 --> 01:09:15,840
Speaker 6: and I know one other man feels exactly the same.

1367
01:09:18,080 --> 01:09:23,559
Speaker 4: His name, jameis Winston hand us that upset jamis. All right,

1368
01:09:23,680 --> 01:09:26,240
Speaker 4: now it's time for best of the rest, which includes

1369
01:09:26,280 --> 01:09:28,200
Speaker 4: the games we did not get to talk about in

1370
01:09:28,280 --> 01:09:32,240
Speaker 4: any other segment. All right, Stuck. First up, Chiefs minus

1371
01:09:32,280 --> 01:09:37,799
Speaker 4: seven at the loss Vegas Raiders. Vegas six defensive players

1372
01:09:37,840 --> 01:09:40,400
Speaker 4: added to the COVID nineteen list. That doesn't mean they

1373
01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:43,760
Speaker 4: can't play, but they do have to, you know, have

1374
01:09:43,880 --> 01:09:47,240
Speaker 4: some negative tests before Sunday. Andy Reid more than seven

1375
01:09:47,320 --> 01:09:52,280
Speaker 4: days to prepare forty twenty six and one against the spread,

1376
01:09:52,680 --> 01:09:57,200
Speaker 4: sixty one percent thoughts on his game, Stuck, Yeah, I did.

1377
01:09:57,320 --> 01:09:59,280
Speaker 2: The Raiders defense has been grading out a little better

1378
01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:01,360
Speaker 2: as of but they had a huge win game in

1379
01:10:01,439 --> 01:10:04,080
Speaker 2: Cleveland and then they had just a Drew lockbomb a game.

1380
01:10:04,439 --> 01:10:06,280
Speaker 2: Still think it's one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

1381
01:10:06,680 --> 01:10:09,320
Speaker 2: And the Chiefs with revenge off of a buy and

1382
01:10:09,400 --> 01:10:11,439
Speaker 2: a huge game for the division that they've owned and

1383
01:10:11,600 --> 01:10:14,760
Speaker 2: for AFC playoffs standings and a potential buy. You know,

1384
01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:17,800
Speaker 2: you're gonna get like one of the most pristine game

1385
01:10:17,840 --> 01:10:20,519
Speaker 2: plans here. From an offensive and defensive perspective from the

1386
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:24,719
Speaker 2: Chief staff, you know, Mahomes is gonna eat the rightful

1387
01:10:24,880 --> 01:10:27,840
Speaker 2: MVP front runner. I think they'll put up points. Now

1388
01:10:27,840 --> 01:10:30,200
Speaker 2: it's ken the Raiders. They should be able to run

1389
01:10:30,280 --> 01:10:32,040
Speaker 2: on the Chiefs. They've been running the ball very well

1390
01:10:32,200 --> 01:10:34,320
Speaker 2: and car has been playing really well. Can they keep up?

1391
01:10:34,560 --> 01:10:35,840
Speaker 2: I don't know. A lot of it's gonna come down

1392
01:10:35,880 --> 01:10:37,880
Speaker 2: to COVID. I know that you'll have a preview for

1393
01:10:37,960 --> 01:10:39,600
Speaker 2: this game, so later in the week, make sure you

1394
01:10:39,640 --> 01:10:41,840
Speaker 2: check that out on the Action app because we'll have

1395
01:10:42,000 --> 01:10:43,840
Speaker 2: more of an update on you know who's the Chiefs

1396
01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:47,479
Speaker 2: tackles were on the list too, that the whole Raiders defense.

1397
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:49,840
Speaker 2: It's just there's a lot of moving parts here, so

1398
01:10:49,880 --> 01:10:51,439
Speaker 2: you're gonna want to check out that preview later in

1399
01:10:51,479 --> 01:10:54,040
Speaker 2: the week. But just from a there's no reason why

1400
01:10:54,080 --> 01:10:58,040
Speaker 2: the chief shouldn't score, it will From a situational perspective,

1401
01:10:58,240 --> 01:11:01,160
Speaker 2: this is where you'll see, you know, like the Chiefs

1402
01:11:01,200 --> 01:11:03,360
Speaker 2: against the Ravens when they came up with that game plan,

1403
01:11:03,479 --> 01:11:06,840
Speaker 2: like they're going to have their full and best playbook

1404
01:11:06,880 --> 01:11:08,880
Speaker 2: here I think it's pretty safe to say the Chiefs

1405
01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:11,360
Speaker 2: will win this game. Will they win it by six

1406
01:11:11,439 --> 01:11:13,800
Speaker 2: and a half, seven or more? I think that will

1407
01:11:13,840 --> 01:11:17,160
Speaker 2: depend on if the Raiders offense can keep up. Maybe

1408
01:11:17,240 --> 01:11:19,519
Speaker 2: some backdoor risk here, but I would lean Chiefs Now,

1409
01:11:19,600 --> 01:11:21,400
Speaker 2: but a lot of uncertainty.

1410
01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:25,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is just a great situational spot for the

1411
01:11:25,560 --> 01:11:27,519
Speaker 4: Chiefs in a line that I think is otherwise more

1412
01:11:27,600 --> 01:11:31,680
Speaker 4: or less you know, correct, you know, but just so

1413
01:11:31,800 --> 01:11:34,200
Speaker 4: many factors favoring the Chiefs. They're just so good coming

1414
01:11:34,240 --> 01:11:36,479
Speaker 4: off the buy. They're so good, I mean just on

1415
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:40,479
Speaker 4: the road period. And now you're talking about, like you said,

1416
01:11:40,600 --> 01:11:42,719
Speaker 4: a game where it's they're going to have their full attention,

1417
01:11:42,880 --> 01:11:44,920
Speaker 4: not just coming off the buy, but a team that

1418
01:11:45,600 --> 01:11:48,080
Speaker 4: beat them and the chief handing the Chiefs are only

1419
01:11:48,200 --> 01:11:52,040
Speaker 4: lost on the season, so you know that the Chiefs

1420
01:11:52,080 --> 01:11:53,760
Speaker 4: are going to come out focused and this is just

1421
01:11:53,880 --> 01:11:57,560
Speaker 4: a great kind of spot to I think back the

1422
01:11:57,640 --> 01:11:59,040
Speaker 4: Chiefs here. But we'll have to see. You know, the

1423
01:11:59,120 --> 01:12:01,600
Speaker 4: line has gone off the ball at many books, so

1424
01:12:01,840 --> 01:12:04,920
Speaker 4: we'll see what it reposts that, But yeah, winning Chiefs

1425
01:12:04,960 --> 01:12:06,640
Speaker 4: Now as well. But check out the preview later in

1426
01:12:06,680 --> 01:12:10,200
Speaker 4: the week. And finally we have the Patriots going to

1427
01:12:10,280 --> 01:12:13,640
Speaker 4: Houston favored by two and a half. Houston is a

1428
01:12:13,760 --> 01:12:18,479
Speaker 4: home dog. Really, the key matchup I see here is

1429
01:12:18,560 --> 01:12:20,640
Speaker 4: that the Patriots are going to be able to run

1430
01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:25,080
Speaker 4: Houston Waston adjusted wineyards allowed to running Backslaston running backyard

1431
01:12:25,160 --> 01:12:30,280
Speaker 4: per Carrie allowed thirty seconds rush DVOA. The Patriots can

1432
01:12:30,320 --> 01:12:33,640
Speaker 4: win games like this. Should they be favored on the

1433
01:12:33,760 --> 01:12:37,120
Speaker 4: road though, given how bad they've played by two and

1434
01:12:37,160 --> 01:12:38,840
Speaker 4: a half, Yeah, I mean I.

1435
01:12:38,880 --> 01:12:41,120
Speaker 2: Think that the value here from a line perspective is

1436
01:12:41,160 --> 01:12:43,639
Speaker 2: on the Texans. I make this game closer to a pick,

1437
01:12:44,000 --> 01:12:46,639
Speaker 2: but I might be staying a way. Maybe I'll tease

1438
01:12:46,680 --> 01:12:49,280
Speaker 2: the Texans because what you said, I have all my

1439
01:12:49,360 --> 01:12:51,320
Speaker 2: stats written down for this game. What do the Patriots

1440
01:12:51,360 --> 01:12:53,720
Speaker 2: want to do? They want to short passes and they

1441
01:12:53,760 --> 01:12:55,760
Speaker 2: want to run the ball. They have a really good

1442
01:12:55,800 --> 01:12:59,040
Speaker 2: offensive line. Harris has looked really good. You know, Cam

1443
01:12:59,120 --> 01:13:01,960
Speaker 2: Newton can run the ball well. All of my stats

1444
01:13:02,040 --> 01:13:05,479
Speaker 2: online Texans thirty second, NFL defending short passes thirty second,

1445
01:13:05,479 --> 01:13:07,960
Speaker 2: in line yards thirtieth and second level rank thirty second,

1446
01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:10,160
Speaker 2: open field rank thirty second, and rush defense to you

1447
01:13:10,200 --> 01:13:12,759
Speaker 2: at thirty second rush yards lie thirty second thirty second

1448
01:13:12,800 --> 01:13:15,599
Speaker 2: thirty second. Literally even in short passes, they just play

1449
01:13:15,720 --> 01:13:19,680
Speaker 2: way off, so like there's nothing that Houston does that

1450
01:13:19,760 --> 01:13:22,439
Speaker 2: should be This is a nightmare matchup for the Houston defense,

1451
01:13:22,960 --> 01:13:24,880
Speaker 2: So that probably will keep me away from this. I

1452
01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:28,160
Speaker 2: can't bet the Patriots because there's just no value in

1453
01:13:28,240 --> 01:13:31,040
Speaker 2: the line, but I want no part of the Texans

1454
01:13:31,120 --> 01:13:33,200
Speaker 2: just because of how bad of a matchup this is.

1455
01:13:34,120 --> 01:13:36,360
Speaker 2: Patriots defense has been abysmal as well, but they did

1456
01:13:36,640 --> 01:13:38,599
Speaker 2: some things a little better last week. Maybe they can

1457
01:13:38,920 --> 01:13:40,760
Speaker 2: you know, Belichick is starting to figure some things out.

1458
01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:42,240
Speaker 2: You can give them the benefit of the doubt there.

1459
01:13:42,439 --> 01:13:45,000
Speaker 2: The only thing I'll consider it is teasing the Texans

1460
01:13:45,120 --> 01:13:47,680
Speaker 2: just because it fits the profile. But bad matchup for

1461
01:13:47,720 --> 01:13:48,880
Speaker 2: the Texans d nightmare.

1462
01:13:49,360 --> 01:13:51,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I make a round to pick them as well,

1463
01:13:51,320 --> 01:13:55,400
Speaker 4: but it's it's really hard to get behind the Texans that,

1464
01:13:55,840 --> 01:13:57,560
Speaker 4: you know, even as the home dog, just because the

1465
01:13:57,600 --> 01:13:59,360
Speaker 4: matchup does not favor them. And this is the type

1466
01:13:59,360 --> 01:14:01,320
Speaker 4: of game the paygrit you to win, So yeah, stay

1467
01:14:01,360 --> 01:14:05,160
Speaker 4: away from me. Let's get into our Survivor Pick of

1468
01:14:05,200 --> 01:14:05,679
Speaker 4: the week.

1469
01:14:06,200 --> 01:14:13,200
Speaker 1: One pick, one chance to advance Survivor.

1470
01:14:14,920 --> 01:14:18,040
Speaker 4: All right, stuck a week eleven, Pretty simple, for me,

1471
01:14:18,400 --> 01:14:23,920
Speaker 4: Minnesota against Dallas. I've used Pittsburgh, Tennessee in the LA

1472
01:14:24,320 --> 01:14:27,360
Speaker 4: the Chiefs which took me down in week five, Miami,

1473
01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:31,760
Speaker 4: the Chargers, Tampa, Houston, and the Packers, so Vikings still

1474
01:14:31,800 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 4: have them using them against Dallas.

1475
01:14:33,320 --> 01:14:35,760
Speaker 2: What about you? Because of who I've used and how

1476
01:14:35,800 --> 01:14:39,040
Speaker 2: to change, I guess I have to go Steelers, and

1477
01:14:39,760 --> 01:14:42,040
Speaker 2: thankfully I'm not still alive, because then I would watch

1478
01:14:42,880 --> 01:14:46,280
Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin in a classic Mike talent spot burn my money.

1479
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:49,000
Speaker 2: I think I might actually rather choose Washington, but for

1480
01:14:49,080 --> 01:14:50,760
Speaker 2: the sake of the podcast, anyone that's still in that

1481
01:14:50,840 --> 01:14:52,120
Speaker 2: think you have to go pit if you haven't.

1482
01:14:53,240 --> 01:14:55,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, Minnesota and pick kind of stand out is a

1483
01:14:55,720 --> 01:14:59,120
Speaker 4: too in my opinion if you have not used them,

1484
01:14:59,640 --> 01:15:02,800
Speaker 4: and that's do it. For another week of the Action

1485
01:15:03,160 --> 01:15:08,400
Speaker 4: Network NFL Betting podcast. You can follow Stucky on Twitter

1486
01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:10,640
Speaker 4: and in the Action Network app. You can find all

1487
01:15:10,680 --> 01:15:13,679
Speaker 4: of his picks at Stucky to all of this content

1488
01:15:13,800 --> 01:15:16,680
Speaker 4: as well at actionnetwork dot com. Same goes for me.

1489
01:15:16,800 --> 01:15:19,120
Speaker 4: I'm on Twitter at Chris Raybon, I'm in the Action

1490
01:15:19,320 --> 01:15:23,160
Speaker 4: app at Chris Raybon, and you can find all my

1491
01:15:23,280 --> 01:15:26,280
Speaker 4: content at actionnetwork dot com as well. Be sure to

1492
01:15:26,520 --> 01:15:30,200
Speaker 4: tune in next week. I will have a Thanksgiving episode

1493
01:15:30,280 --> 01:15:32,360
Speaker 4: coming out or earlier in the week. I think it

1494
01:15:32,400 --> 01:15:36,120
Speaker 4: should be out early Wednesday morning or even late Tuesday night,

1495
01:15:36,720 --> 01:15:38,479
Speaker 4: so be sure to check for that, and of course,

1496
01:15:38,600 --> 01:15:42,479
Speaker 4: remember to search Sunday six Pack to follow all of

1497
01:15:42,600 --> 01:15:45,760
Speaker 4: the picks in the Action Network app. They should be

1498
01:15:45,840 --> 01:15:50,599
Speaker 4: posted each week by the end of Friday until next week.

1499
01:15:51,520 --> 01:16:11,400
Speaker 2: Let's get this money, go Jack, We're finished talking.