Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's focus in Matt
Speaker 1: on what we're seeing in Bitcoin in the cryptos, and
Speaker 1: we do that with our good friend, uh, Mike mcglogan.
Speaker 1: He's a strategy commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, what
Speaker 1: do you make of the trading here today? I'm just
Speaker 1: looking at my g I P function for bitcoin and
Speaker 1: it it hit thirty thousand and then it bounced right
Speaker 1: back up pretty significantly. What do you make of the
Speaker 1: trading today? I completely agree with Kathy Wood that this
Speaker 1: is a capitulation. It's a market backing up to decent
Speaker 1: support levels in a significantly fundamental boolmarket. So let's look
Speaker 1: at the iteration is going forward. This is more macro
Speaker 1: economic at the moment. At the moment, to me, the
Speaker 1: bigger issue here is mean version in the stock market.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin has just been the high beta indicating it. And
Speaker 1: then you also can see that and the rest of
Speaker 1: the cryptosy're down almost double how much bitcoin is today.
Speaker 1: Look at the iterations going forward. If this document goes
Speaker 1: down and stays down for a while, it's a virtual
Speaker 1: guarantee that there's only one thing the Fed can do.
Speaker 1: They have to buy more bonds. What is that good
Speaker 1: for bonds? Gold and bitcoin? They will be the primary beneficiary.
Speaker 1: So I think the key point Cathy would make made
Speaker 1: about deflationary trends. To me, that's the biggest fact that
Speaker 1: it's really kicking in here. Why is crudel down five percent?
Speaker 1: Because the only thing that's been holding up is this
Speaker 1: writing right rising this this rising tide. Enough the tide
Speaker 1: starting the EBB, we're gonna see who's not wearing clothes,
Speaker 1: and I think it's gonna be bitcoin, golden bonds to
Speaker 1: benefit again. For you know, A key thing to leave
Speaker 1: you on is I think we're gonna look back at
Speaker 1: this and say that that joke coin, that Hustle doage cooin,
Speaker 1: it marked the peak of speculative froth in virtual all
Speaker 1: global markets. What what is driving this talent? Can we
Speaker 1: look across because you can track which wallets are, you know,
Speaker 1: trade in cash. People say it's anonymous, but it's really
Speaker 1: sued pseudonymous. Is there any way to know who's pushing
Speaker 1: these prices down, how it's happening, Well, it's that's um.
Speaker 1: It depends on why you want to know. And and
Speaker 1: one thing, Matt, I've always looked at it from a
Speaker 1: markets guy, beating a new traded pits, I look at
Speaker 1: and that is trying to define exactly who is doing it,
Speaker 1: and wise is less important than figuring out what's the
Speaker 1: purpose and what's going on. And to me, the main
Speaker 1: thing that's really happening this is massive speculative leverage. Long
Speaker 1: is getting hit in their stops. And you know, as
Speaker 1: an ex trader and speeding trading, pitt And traded with
Speaker 1: a lot more leverage in futures. And you see most markets,
Speaker 1: you know, leverages down there in the pay trading pits
Speaker 1: one minimal. You know, have a little sympathy for speculators
Speaker 1: getting stopped up, but oftentimes they mark the peaks and
Speaker 1: the trolls. And that's what I think is happening now.
Speaker 1: And then when you know the dust settles, we're gonna
Speaker 1: see the fundamentals kick in, and that's where I see
Speaker 1: bitcoin versus everything else. Now, theorium is okay, but then
Speaker 1: there's a ten thousand other cryptos. Now we all know
Speaker 1: from the dot com bubble there's pretty good signs of
Speaker 1: speculam excess. But then there's only one digital goal in
Speaker 1: the world going digital. And by the way, Bitcoin still
Speaker 1: up in the year. I guess how much Tesla is down? Matt.
Speaker 1: Can't you picture Mike McGlone in commodities pitch trading? Absolutely?
Speaker 1: I also would love to be there myself. I mean,
Speaker 1: that's those were the days. I wonder if we still
Speaker 1: have the same kind of commodity pits, are the same
Speaker 1: kind of open outcry trading anywhere in the world. Is
Speaker 1: it dead everywhere? It's dead everywhere. But I'd like to
Speaker 1: say the five years I spent in the Chicago Board
Speaker 1: of Trade is more than anything I learned. Isn't an
Speaker 1: m B A c F, A FRM, all these all
Speaker 1: these degrees we get, It's just there's nothing like being
Speaker 1: around five thousand people every day and just knocking around markets.
Speaker 1: This is what fascinates me in terms of what's going
Speaker 1: on right now with bitcoin, because I've seen, you know,
Speaker 1: a crash from a thousand and we we wrote these
Speaker 1: stories about how the masses got pulled in and now
Speaker 1: it's all over and the fat lady has sung and
Speaker 1: I saw the crash. It's seventeen thousand and everyone. We
Speaker 1: wrote stories that said, this is it. We called the game.
Speaker 1: It's over now, and we're doing that again today, which
Speaker 1: makes me sort of simultaneously laugh and and puke to
Speaker 1: some extent. But what I what fascinates me is the
Speaker 1: mechanics of what's happening here. Who's selling? Why are there
Speaker 1: margin stops, you know, our margin calls, um, you know
Speaker 1: forcing this liquidation? Are we seeing any big whales get
Speaker 1: out of um? You know, wallets that haven't moved forever?
Speaker 1: Is this all retail? Is this institutional? Are people selling short? Like? This?
Speaker 1: Is what I wonder about what's going on right now?
Speaker 1: Well that's the key thing, man, And I'd love to
Speaker 1: see people selling short of bull market get backing up
Speaker 1: the good support with fundamentally good drivers. So I think
Speaker 1: that should continue and for a little while. But this
Speaker 1: is how you make bottoms in markets, as fowers who's signed?
Speaker 1: Oftentimes you find that out later when the markets already recovers,
Speaker 1: so it's kind of hard to tell now, but I
Speaker 1: fully expect this is it is the speculat access is
Speaker 1: hitting their stops. And by the way, you know, that's
Speaker 1: oftentimes we used to say that in trading of bits, Hey,
Speaker 1: where's the stops? Because you want to hit them, and
Speaker 1: that's when you know where you get. You run through
Speaker 1: the prices and then you put in the bottom or
Speaker 1: a peak if it's in a bowl market. Right now,
Speaker 1: it's just I think putty near a bottom in a
Speaker 1: bowl market as you just run through these these people
Speaker 1: got a little too bullish around sixty and probably getting
Speaker 1: a little too barrish around thirty. Hey, Mike, you know,
Speaker 1: let's put this technical trading or this capitulation trade aside
Speaker 1: for just a moment. If I'm a fundamental investor, what
Speaker 1: are the next data points I should be focusing on
Speaker 1: for bitcoin? Well, I think the next key thing is
Speaker 1: I think it holds around thirty a douta gets much
Speaker 1: below and then to see how it gravitates. The key
Speaker 1: thing I'm looking at is the macro. How does this
Speaker 1: stock market resun respond to this? Is the stock market
Speaker 1: continues to show just too Maybe you have a normal
Speaker 1: temperacent correction which used to be history. What does that
Speaker 1: mean for the iterations from the macro And to me,
Speaker 1: that's where the bitcoin is different from all the cryptos.
Speaker 1: It is macro and macro only that's what matters the most,
Speaker 1: and to me, that's what's gonna matter. So as far
Speaker 1: as technical levels, a lot of times this is like
Speaker 1: this to me is kind of like noise in the
Speaker 1: big picture. If you look back at this from the
Speaker 1: future hypothetically five years so now we're going to look
Speaker 1: back at this, it's like, Okay, finally we had some
Speaker 1: time for this, that massive rallying and stock market just
Speaker 1: to mean revert and normalize a little bit, and it
Speaker 1: made everything kicking, like the FED and mask and fiscal
Speaker 1: monical stem monitory stemas has to pick up. And then
Speaker 1: we see these predominant deflationary forces, like look at crude oil.
Speaker 1: It just probably peaked around seventy and guess what, in
Speaker 1: ten years, we're not gonna be using much of it.
Speaker 1: We're all we're driving electric cars. But that's the key
Speaker 1: thing where bitcoin s up comes in. It's set rapidly
Speaker 1: advancing technology and innovation, reshaping the world with Catty Cathy
Speaker 1: Woods touts on this is part of the whole world
Speaker 1: getting banked. And by the way, there's no the monetary
Speaker 1: powers policy is fixed. You don't have to worry about
Speaker 1: more bitcoins coming on. To me, that's what's gonna come on.
Speaker 1: As far as levels, they're kind of noise, but you know,
Speaker 1: getting back above fifty I think will be the next
Speaker 1: key threshold. Sustaining above below thirty and b m of
Speaker 1: a problem for a well, but for me, the last
Speaker 1: thing I want to do is focus on the day trade.
Speaker 1: It's the macro and the bigger picture. I think we're
Speaker 1: more likely to head towards a hundred um than sustained
Speaker 1: below thirty this year. Agree with you a hundred percent,
Speaker 1: But you know, it's the day traders and Wall Street
Speaker 1: bets that get the headlines. Um, it's the momentary moves
Speaker 1: that spur people to to call the game. By the way,
Speaker 1: Elon Musk, I don't know if you saw this, Mike
Speaker 1: that he just tweeted it, but uh, he just tweeted
Speaker 1: that he has that Tesla has diamond hands, which is,
Speaker 1: for those who don't know kind of Wall Street bets
Speaker 1: Redditt jargon for someone who absolutely refuses to roll over
Speaker 1: and sell. He will not capitulate. It's kind of what
Speaker 1: he's saying now. But you can never trust Elon, or
Speaker 1: at least I think crypto investors won't won't be able
Speaker 1: to trust him Um to stick to his word, because
Speaker 1: he seems to go back and forth. He seems to
Speaker 1: waffle on his commitment to crypto and to bitcoin. And
Speaker 1: it's also I think interesting that he embraces DOES because
Speaker 1: serious crypto investors are sickened by DOES, or at least
Speaker 1: embarrassed by it. Wouldn't you say, oh absolutely, I look
Speaker 1: at the whole Doge saga and him getting instead of
Speaker 1: right live is We're gonna look back at that and
Speaker 1: from the future and say, okay, well that was the
Speaker 1: peak in speculative accesses and all those ten thousand cryptos
Speaker 1: that don't really matter anymore. Now there's only like ten
Speaker 1: that really matter, Bitcoin and Theoryum and then a few others.
Speaker 1: And you know, I look yet, right now, let's just
Speaker 1: let's fixtion and put an iteration on this. Let's say,
Speaker 1: by you know, end of the year, we sustain above
Speaker 1: fifty thousand. What does that mean? Bitcoin just survived another
Speaker 1: of the thousand cuts. It's it's with it's hit, it's
Speaker 1: it's been hit, hit, hit it for ten years. Markets
Speaker 1: are used to this, and if you're allocating to the space,
Speaker 1: you should be, you know, a small percentage your portfolio
Speaker 1: expected to drop fifty and if you don't, then you're
Speaker 1: too overweight. But give it five ten years and it's
Speaker 1: it's a major ten x. And if it doesn't continue
Speaker 1: being the digital version of gold, well the world's going digital.
Speaker 1: Something else will and it's just a matter of time.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin has already won that race. So I look at
Speaker 1: it as bitcoin and gold together. It can analyze gold
Speaker 1: without it, and this type of dip. I expect them
Speaker 1: both to appreciate out of this. Most notably if we see,
Speaker 1: let's say the stock market actually goes back to unchanged
Speaker 1: on the year, just imagine the iterations from the FET
Speaker 1: What do you, Mike, doesn't give you any concern here
Speaker 1: that the Elon Musk of the world can have such
Speaker 1: an outsize impact on this security it Maybe we're peak
Speaker 1: Musk hitting Peak Musk was Senterate live. But the key
Speaker 1: thing is also I like to say the fact that
Speaker 1: the world's largest automaker by market cap is allocated to
Speaker 1: this digital reserve asset makes significant sense, but it's also
Speaker 1: might be marking a peak for death sla. I mean,
Speaker 1: who else can in the world cannot make electric cars?
Speaker 1: I mean everybody can know. I drive a Chevy Volte.
Speaker 1: I love it because I don't have range anxiety. And
Speaker 1: of course it's it's it's a poor man's teslas, so
Speaker 1: maybe it's peaked. Dude, I love it. I love it too,
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, Um, I have always loved that car.
Speaker 1: And beyond the specific Chevy Vault, hybrids are the answer.
Speaker 1: I don't know why anyone has to be dedicated to
Speaker 1: a battery battery electric vehicles, and now we're going off
Speaker 1: on a tangent here. But for me, um, why not
Speaker 1: have a range extend or as BMW calls, you know
Speaker 1: their three cylinder engines that they throw in the I
Speaker 1: eight and the I three. Why not have that extra
Speaker 1: security and you can use the battery most of the time,
Speaker 1: be good for the environment most of the time. When
Speaker 1: you need it, throw in a little bit of internal combustion.
Speaker 1: But Matt, I think that's very relevant to the current topic.
Speaker 1: It's called innovation and rampidly advancing technology disrupting what's happening.
Speaker 1: So right now the infrastructure is just not there for
Speaker 1: all electric cars. The infrastructure is still not there for
Speaker 1: digital asses. We don't have an e t F in
Speaker 1: the U S. And guess what, it's a matter of time.
Speaker 1: The rest of the world has proven there's no problem
Speaker 1: with e t f s. By the way I used
Speaker 1: to run, you know, I remember in the natural gas
Speaker 1: ETF it went to zero and some things like that.
Speaker 1: So to me, what you're we're in the midst of
Speaker 1: rapidly I think when the most significant periods of history
Speaker 1: of technologies taken over pressuring inflationary forces, and we're seeing
Speaker 1: a little bit of that normalization today. Bitcoin is part
Speaker 1: of it. It's just this is part of that adjustment.
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna look back at this in the
Speaker 1: future when there's e t F so and when the
Speaker 1: Baltil the in bitcoin drops to about the same as goal,
Speaker 1: which it probably will because it gets what. Only thing
Speaker 1: that's uncertain is demand, and um all car cars will
Speaker 1: be electric. But I'll end on this one key point
Speaker 1: just because of efficiency that you mentioned in cars, total
Speaker 1: consumption of U S liquid fuels is exactly the same
Speaker 1: as it was twenty years ago. Yet GDP and production
Speaker 1: is increased over that's just efficiency. Now everything is going electronic,
Speaker 1: and it's an electrification, digitalization, decarbonization. It's all kicking in.
Speaker 1: Everything gets more efficient. You know, you might not eleven
Speaker 1: gets forty miles a gallon now it's pretty insane. UM,
Speaker 1: the way you drive it, well, no, not the way
Speaker 1: I drive when my wife drives in. Mike, thanks so
Speaker 1: much for joining us. I really appreciate it. I know
Speaker 1: you're super busy today. You can see Mike's work UM
Speaker 1: today on the t live blog. We've out of a
Speaker 1: top live blog which is excellent and excellent way to
Speaker 1: follow events like this. UM. Just type t L I
Speaker 1: V go on your Bloomberg terminal to continue keeping up
Speaker 1: with what's going on. Big point. Also, I hope I
Speaker 1: can get Mike and my television program later. I'm on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV at one pm for people. I'm gonna have
Speaker 1: my people talk to his people and see if we
Speaker 1: can get him. We have FED minutes will be released
Speaker 1: today two pm Wall Street time, and I think most
Speaker 1: observers are going to be, you know, taking a look
Speaker 1: at how the FED of views inflation. It has been
Speaker 1: fairly consistent across the board saying, Hey, this inflation that
Speaker 1: you're seeing in the economy is transitory, uh, and it
Speaker 1: should not be a concern for this economic rebound. But
Speaker 1: that's clearly one of the key issues that the market
Speaker 1: is focusing on. Now, let's bring in our good friend,
Speaker 1: Danielle DiMartino Booth. She's a CEO and director of Intelligence
Speaker 1: for Quill Intelligence. She's also a former advisor at the
Speaker 1: Dallas Federal Reserve and a Bloom Opinion contributor. Also is
Speaker 1: the author of the book entitled fed Up, An Insider's
Speaker 1: take on why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America. Danielle,
Speaker 1: thanks so much for taking the time here. What are
Speaker 1: you going to be looking for here as in these
Speaker 1: FED minutes later this afternoon. Well, first of all, thanks
Speaker 1: for having me this morning. And you know, I will
Speaker 1: be tuned in to what Clarda mentioned a few days ago,
Speaker 1: and and that is that he's going to be attuned
Speaker 1: and attentive to incoming data. You know, being a former
Speaker 1: FED insider, it's not on on hood of for the
Speaker 1: minutes to not two changes in between the end of
Speaker 1: the meeting and the time that's passed since then, and
Speaker 1: you know what, what we can say is that there's
Speaker 1: been a lot of mixed messaging. We started to see
Speaker 1: the commodities complex come off of its highs. This is
Speaker 1: going to be very reassuring for anybody inside the FED
Speaker 1: who's sticking to their transitor um narrative. But by the
Speaker 1: same token, there is an undeniability about the stickiness in
Speaker 1: some of the prices that we're seeing. So you don't
Speaker 1: buy the transitory narrative. Although I will say, if I
Speaker 1: look at the commodities complex right now, uh, there are
Speaker 1: some serious red arrows everywhere you look, just today, right
Speaker 1: and one day. Of course, a trend does not make
Speaker 1: But you don't think that this inflation we're gonna see
Speaker 1: is only a momentary. Well, I think that there are
Speaker 1: certain areas that are showing again stickiness we're seeing We're
Speaker 1: seeing that in steel and iron ore in specific pockets. Um.
Speaker 1: But I'm actually in the camp that does not believe
Speaker 1: in the inflation expectations narrative because it's got such a
Speaker 1: tight correlation purely with the commodities index. So I prefer
Speaker 1: the Cleveland said inflation gauge, which which takes into context
Speaker 1: labor costs, and if you look at the Atlanta FEDS
Speaker 1: that have kind of a real time labor gauge, it
Speaker 1: really isn't flashing red just yet. And you know where
Speaker 1: I live in Texas. Next week is the last week
Speaker 1: of school. We've got a ton of high school students
Speaker 1: who are going to be hitting the labor market, and
Speaker 1: wages are a lot higher than they've been in past summers.
Speaker 1: They might think of doing things other than being a
Speaker 1: lifeguard because there there might be enough of a poll
Speaker 1: for low skilled positions, especially the five thousands that are
Speaker 1: open among manufacturers. They're mostly low skilled positions, but these
Speaker 1: kids can make a lot over the next three months
Speaker 1: between Memorial Day and Labor Day. That's a great point, Danielle,
Speaker 1: because I guess we've had the news you know, earlier
Speaker 1: in the week about McDonald's raising it's you know, minimum wage,
Speaker 1: the thirteen dollars in Amazon to fifteen dollars and even
Speaker 1: Bank of America talking twenty five dollars here. Is that
Speaker 1: just kind of anecdotal news in your mind, or is
Speaker 1: that indicative of made some wage inflation creeping into this economy. Well, again,
Speaker 1: we're not seeing it picked up in the aggregate measures
Speaker 1: just yet, can we have to remember that there are
Speaker 1: still so many small businesses in this country that can't
Speaker 1: afford to compete with the larger big box retailers the
Speaker 1: banks of America. As you say, so, we're definitely seeing
Speaker 1: a grab for labor. What we don't know is what
Speaker 1: the other side of September six looks like when these
Speaker 1: UM supplemental unemployment benefits expiring. We've already heard from Joe Mansion,
Speaker 1: who is arguably the most powerful person inside the Beltway,
Speaker 1: that he's not going to sign on for an extension
Speaker 1: of the extra three dollars per week. So again, we've
Speaker 1: got two two flows into the labor market between teenagers
Speaker 1: and one stag of back to school. You're gonna have
Speaker 1: millions of Americans who are who are going to be
Speaker 1: faced with the choice of, well, gee, I might have
Speaker 1: to go back to work because I can't make as much.
Speaker 1: I can't sustain myself anymore. On these unemployment benefits will
Speaker 1: be reopening nationwide. Yeah, I got it. Just a minute
Speaker 1: left here, Danielle. But a question from a financial professional,
Speaker 1: a listener who who also has seen you speak in
Speaker 1: the past and appreciates your UM your views. He he
Speaker 1: wants to know if you think any other central bank
Speaker 1: will blink before the FED, or does the FED have
Speaker 1: to move before the rest of the global central banks
Speaker 1: do it? Oh, gracious, We've already heard from the Bank
Speaker 1: of Canada as well as some of the emerging markets
Speaker 1: for dilful one. We know that other banks are going
Speaker 1: to start the tapering process, and they've indicated that they're
Speaker 1: going to do that, while the SET is maintaining that
Speaker 1: they're not thinking about thinking about the taper discussion Rob Kaplan,
Speaker 1: you know, notwithstanding so uh no, I I think it's
Speaker 1: feasible that the FED not be first out of the gate.
Speaker 1: That would be abnormal. And so you think and even
Speaker 1: the important, the big ones like the e c B
Speaker 1: in the Bank of England could move first. That's a
Speaker 1: different story. You know, they're the level of quantitative easing
Speaker 1: that they're pumping out. John Authors had a great call
Speaker 1: up few days ago. It's it's higher than it was
Speaker 1: when the pandemic first hit. When you're talking about the
Speaker 1: ECB and even even the FED and the Bank of Engment,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I I still send a lot of
Speaker 1: reticence on the part of the Big four Central Banks.
Speaker 1: All right, Daniel, thanks so much for joining us. Daniel
Speaker 1: DeMartino booth there. She is the CEO of Quill Intelligence.
Speaker 1: Of course, she's a former advisor at the Dallas Federal
Speaker 1: Reserve as well, also a Bloomberg Opinion contributor, as is
Speaker 1: John Authors. You can find columns from both of them.
Speaker 1: Just type O, P, I, N GO. I want to
Speaker 1: talk about what's going on in retail. You have a
Speaker 1: slew of earnings yesterday and then a slew today as well.
Speaker 1: Let's bring in Ty Lopez to see winners and losers.
Speaker 1: Are executive chairman of Retail e Commerce Ventures. Um, Ty,
Speaker 1: what do you think now that we've seen UH Target,
Speaker 1: t J Max, Lowe's, Home Depot, Macy's, UH Walmart? Where
Speaker 1: do you think? Which business do you think is best
Speaker 1: poised to succeed in a reopening? Yeah? Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: I would say the better question is what's not going
Speaker 1: to do well? Not much. I just read an interesting
Speaker 1: report by Adobe on a calm and U. For example,
Speaker 1: ten of Americans had who are now shopping a calm
Speaker 1: had never bought anything at the beginning of the pandemic.
Speaker 1: That's thirty million new people entered just because of the pandemic.
Speaker 1: So that momentum, I mean, this thing's wild clothings up
Speaker 1: for us. We're in all kind of we on radiosheck, electronics,
Speaker 1: all this stuff. We haven't seen anything, uh do anything
Speaker 1: but surge. So I think there's probably some B two
Speaker 1: C stuff, maybe something that supports commercial real estate. That's
Speaker 1: about the only thing I know that's getting hit right now.
Speaker 1: So it's a great time to be in retail, especially
Speaker 1: if you have that a calm, you know, if you
Speaker 1: have the flair for e calm, by the by the way,
Speaker 1: your business, so you invest in companies that have well
Speaker 1: known brands but didn't do great as brick and mortar stores.
Speaker 1: You mentioned radio shack, but also Model's, um uh one,
Speaker 1: linens and things. Yeah, so so how is that going? Then?
Speaker 1: It's been you know, we started buying before the pandemic
Speaker 1: and it was going well then and this thing has
Speaker 1: just super truck what would have taken until happened last
Speaker 1: in the last twelve months without a doubt. So there's
Speaker 1: been just we fought forwarded ten years. As I said,
Speaker 1: thirty million people according to one survey in the United States.
Speaker 1: That's just the US and of course e calm is
Speaker 1: very easy to go global with, so you have of
Speaker 1: people in the UK had never shopped a calm before COVID.
Speaker 1: So everything is just pointing to of course we knew
Speaker 1: this was going to happen. If you we would all
Speaker 1: predict our great grandchildren would be completely digital and how
Speaker 1: they do things. Well, guess what it happened right now.
Speaker 1: So you op to wait for your grandchildren to live
Speaker 1: that life. You're living it right now, alright, Ty, So
Speaker 1: as we think about retail one of the key issues
Speaker 1: here and it's probably been accelerated because of the pandemic,
Speaker 1: and is uh acceleration and e commerces? Are there still
Speaker 1: too many stores out there? Um, you know a lot
Speaker 1: of it's right sized itself. I think you see everybody
Speaker 1: from Victoria's Secret down has kind of right size their stores. Um,
Speaker 1: will probably start for one, will probably start opening stores
Speaker 1: back up. All right, all right, Ty, thanks so much.
Speaker 1: We're gon have to leave it there because we have
Speaker 1: some breaking news here. Ty Lopez, Executive Chairman, Retail e
Speaker 1: Commerce Adventures. We appreciate that. A risk off day today,
Speaker 1: We're sure, particularly you look at some of the cryptocurrencies again, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, it's Bitcoin is off about twelve percent now,
Speaker 1: having Uh, it's declined from earlier in the day, so
Speaker 1: perhaps a little bit of a correction there. Let's get
Speaker 1: a sense of, you know, kind of how we should
Speaker 1: step back here on days like today and maybe take
Speaker 1: a look at the bigger picture. We can do that
Speaker 1: today with David Could. He's a founder, CEO, and chief
Speaker 1: investment strategist for Mainstay Capital. David, thanks so much for
Speaker 1: joining us. A great day to chat with you, given
Speaker 1: what's going on in the markets here. So let's take
Speaker 1: a step back. What do you make of the markets
Speaker 1: here today, the equity markets, the crypto markets. Uh. Is
Speaker 1: this just kind of a healthy pullback or is it
Speaker 1: something more? Well, we've had a good run here from
Speaker 1: you know, really over the past twelve months in the markets,
Speaker 1: and and we we were rolling here into May with
Speaker 1: the markets at all time highs, margin debt at all
Speaker 1: time highs, and we're seeing a day here. I think
Speaker 1: it's uh triggered by this massive sell off in crypto,
Speaker 1: but we're seeing some certainly risk off across the board,
Speaker 1: and I think some of that's to be expected, but
Speaker 1: you know, it is giving investors a chance to take
Speaker 1: a look at their portfolios and understand how they're allocated
Speaker 1: and where they might want to be allocated. And we
Speaker 1: think this is an opportunity to take a hard look
Speaker 1: at that. Certainly, uh in the crypto space for seeing
Speaker 1: uh some massive sell off and bitcoin, etherium and so forth. Well,
Speaker 1: we're seeing sell sell offs across the board, really, David.
Speaker 1: I mean if I look at UM, well we've got
Speaker 1: a GMM Global Macro Movers function on the Bloomberg and
Speaker 1: there's just read across the screen. Equity index is selling
Speaker 1: down four x, UM is selling off, and it looks
Speaker 1: like UM pretty much everything against the dollars down. Commodities,
Speaker 1: we have copper down, w t I, soybeans, um, iron,
Speaker 1: ore all selling off. You know, where where do you
Speaker 1: take advantage of this? If if you want to, if
Speaker 1: you've got dry powder cash to put to work, where
Speaker 1: would you put it? So? You know, today, notwithstanding, we
Speaker 1: think that it makes sense for investors to continue to
Speaker 1: look at the value trade, value oriented stocks and those
Speaker 1: reflation or inflation trades. Uh. You know, technology was clearly
Speaker 1: a place to be last year, but our our mantra
Speaker 1: has been to continue to rotate into value and we
Speaker 1: still think it makes sense to do that, even the
Speaker 1: in in commodities for that matter, some of the e
Speaker 1: t F E t f s like c M, the
Speaker 1: direction commodity strategy XLB, the spider material select sector, even
Speaker 1: though we've seen lumber, which had gone to astronomic levels,
Speaker 1: has had a significant correction here uh, and some of
Speaker 1: the commodities have corrected. Going forward with the inflationary pressures,
Speaker 1: with the demand that will still be there. UH, we
Speaker 1: think it makes sense. And those areas helped to diversify
Speaker 1: our stock portfolio in past days and weeks. We've seen
Speaker 1: good diversification benefits with our stocks. We think that makes
Speaker 1: sense to continue in the value trade because we've literally
Speaker 1: seen a route in tech stocks, so we think that
Speaker 1: continues to make makes sense for investors. All right, David,
Speaker 1: just real quickly, UM, what's your sector that you guys
Speaker 1: are most excited about? Right here, right now, thirty seconds?
Speaker 1: Right now, We think that it makes sense to value
Speaker 1: oriented stocks UH, Infrastructure plays et f s like PAVES,
Speaker 1: the global x US US infrastructure e t F UH,
Speaker 1: and then the small cap, MidCap, large cap value intiiculcally
Speaker 1: oriented stocks. You can get that through E T F
Speaker 1: s uh like the Piece or US small cap cash
Speaker 1: cows the A L F H. Those plays make a
Speaker 1: lot of sense right here, David, thanks so much for
Speaker 1: joining us, David could la. They really appreciate your time
Speaker 1: and your insight, especially on a day like this. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.
Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts
Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Pet On Ball Sweeney
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.