Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show.
Speaker 1: Now here's your host, Paul. Welcome to a super Bowl
Speaker 1: edition of Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul charge In,
Speaker 1: flying so low today because there's only one game to
Speaker 1: break down and I think I can handle it. It's
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, of course, And you know, like our
Speaker 1: other playoff episodes, if you heard the previous several months
Speaker 1: or so, really focusing on a DFS orientation for these games.
Speaker 1: I'm still giving letter grades to every meaningful player, but
Speaker 1: it's within the spectrum of DFS, so it depends a
Speaker 1: lot on their cost. And a player who's normally just
Speaker 1: a rock solid A like Patrick Mahomes may not be
Speaker 1: an A because of his salary. So you know, we'll
Speaker 1: talk that through for each of the salient guys on
Speaker 1: both sides of the ball. Now you already know these
Speaker 1: teams met in week number twelve. We knew that game
Speaker 1: was a possible playoff or Super Bowl preview and can't
Speaker 1: stitt end up winning what was ultimately close game. But
Speaker 1: you'll remember they they staked out a huge lead early
Speaker 1: when Tyreek Hill went berserk at the beginning of the game,
Speaker 1: and um, and then the Bucks with Tom Brady came
Speaker 1: back to make it a lot closer at the end.
Speaker 1: Let's start on the Buccaneers side, and I want to
Speaker 1: start with the running game and just talk broadly about
Speaker 1: that for a minute. It was a total non factor
Speaker 1: in the earlier meeting because again Tyreek Hill went crazy
Speaker 1: at the beginning and then really the running game not
Speaker 1: even a factor. Um. But what I want to stress
Speaker 1: you more is, going back to week eight, can City
Speaker 1: has been a pretty good run defense, not shutdown. Tampa
Speaker 1: has a shutdown run defense, which we'll talk about in
Speaker 1: a minute, but it's been good since week So that's now, um,
Speaker 1: I believe thirteen games ago. I mean, through thirteen games,
Speaker 1: it's pretty big sample size. At that point, only one
Speaker 1: back is top seventy two yards on the ground against
Speaker 1: Kansas City. They're giving up a modest four point two
Speaker 1: yards per carry, and maybe most importantly, teams are only
Speaker 1: averaging nineteen rushes per game against Kansas City. Since we
Speaker 1: eate that is the lowest in the league, so you
Speaker 1: just don't get volume with any of the running backs
Speaker 1: that face Tampa. I'm sorry that face the Chiefs, and
Speaker 1: it's usually because teams are fallen behind, and that could
Speaker 1: happen here as well. Um and so I think there's
Speaker 1: a really strong angle that just says, you know what.
Speaker 1: I think you may just want to avoid the Buccaneers
Speaker 1: running backs. Ronald Jones clocks into thirty three hundred, however,
Speaker 1: which is very affordable. You know. He he hit Kansas
Speaker 1: City for seven yards per carry in the earlier match up.
Speaker 1: It was only nine carries, so it wasn't a big
Speaker 1: sample size. Like I said, they didn't run much, but
Speaker 1: still seven yards per carry on nine carries pretty good.
Speaker 1: The Browns ran for five yards per carry against the
Speaker 1: Chiefs in the playoff game, but again, overall, the run
Speaker 1: defense is pretty good. I like Ronald Jones at thirty
Speaker 1: three hundred a lot more than a Leonard four net
Speaker 1: at eleven thousand dollars. He's a draft Kings numbers eleven thousand,
Speaker 1: So you gotta pay three times as much for Leonard Fournette. Now,
Speaker 1: I know Fournett is coming off the better game, but
Speaker 1: if you've watched a moment of Buccaneers football this year,
Speaker 1: you know how inscrutable that backfield is. And just because
Speaker 1: four net got more work the past couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: and especially while Ronald Jones was getting healthy, doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that he's gonna get more work here. So I prefer
Speaker 1: Ronald Jones. I've gotta be grade on Jones. I've got
Speaker 1: a C grade on Leonard four net and and really
Speaker 1: hoping that I think he just catches more passes. Um.
Speaker 1: I don't know that Fournette gets much done here, and
Speaker 1: he didn't do anything in the previous matchup. In the
Speaker 1: Week twelve matchup, he had just three carries for ten
Speaker 1: yards and three catches for ten yards. So if you're
Speaker 1: gonna have this really difficult to decipher backfield, I don't
Speaker 1: want the guy that costs three times as much Leonard front.
Speaker 1: I will take Ronald Jones. All right, let's go to
Speaker 1: the passing game. Tom Brady clocks in at fifteen thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: These are you know, these are not the normal DFS prices.
Speaker 1: It's because uh, and I should mention this at the outside,
Speaker 1: I guess. But you know, if you care enough about
Speaker 1: the draft Kings angle on it. Then you probably already
Speaker 1: know it's all flex players, and as all flex players,
Speaker 1: all the all of the dollars changed pretty dramatically here.
Speaker 1: So Brady comes in a fifteen thousand. He threw four
Speaker 1: five yards and three touchdowns in the earlier matchup. Again,
Speaker 1: lots of volume in that one, playing from behind um
Speaker 1: multiple touchdowns for Tom Brady in ten straight games coming
Speaker 1: into this one, and the Chiefs have allowed multiple passing
Speaker 1: touchdowns in nine of the last ten games. So you know,
Speaker 1: the part of like about take Brady is you don't
Speaker 1: have to guess which one of his many receiving targets
Speaker 1: is gonna get paid. If you've got Brady, you know
Speaker 1: you know what you're gonna get. You know, you get
Speaker 1: all the passing touchdowns. You don't have to guess if
Speaker 1: this is gonna be a an Tonio Brown game, Scotty
Speaker 1: Miller game, a Tyler Johnson game, and Chris Godwin game,
Speaker 1: a Rob Gronkowski game. You know you camera braid. You
Speaker 1: don't have sat any of that stuff. And that's really
Speaker 1: appealing for me as I try to decipher this, and
Speaker 1: that's part of the reason why I would take Tom
Speaker 1: Brady I've got to be grade at him on him
Speaker 1: for fifteen thousand dollars um. I the receiver I liked
Speaker 1: the best at his price point is Chris Godwind two
Speaker 1: hundred dollars earlier. In the earlier matchup, he led all
Speaker 1: of the Bucks receivers and targets and receptions. He runs
Speaker 1: primarily from the slot, as you probably already know, um,
Speaker 1: although we have seen him run a bit more outside
Speaker 1: when Antonio Brown got hurt. But Brown is expected to
Speaker 1: play from the slot. He'll face off against talented rookie
Speaker 1: Legarious Sneak. Sneeth has been good, but you could reasonably
Speaker 1: ask is this moment too big for a rookie from
Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech who has played ten NFL games? It could be.
Speaker 1: Will they test him early? They might? I would. I
Speaker 1: would test la Legarius Snead and find out just how
Speaker 1: ready he is to go. And I like Chris Godwin
Speaker 1: in this game, and that's why he comes in with
Speaker 1: a B grade. I like Mike Evans as well. Twelve thousand,
Speaker 1: six dollars. He had two scores in the earlier matchup.
Speaker 1: He's the NFL's most targeted player inside the ten yard
Speaker 1: line now Evans runs from all over the field, but
Speaker 1: most often he runs on the left side row matchup
Speaker 1: with Bushad Breeland, against whom he has a six inch
Speaker 1: and thirty five pound size advantage. Freeland got beat for
Speaker 1: a touchdown in the week twelve matchup, I'll mention that.
Speaker 1: And for Evans, his three playoff games, he had a
Speaker 1: ten target one nineteen yard a game, then he had
Speaker 1: a touchdown, then he had a touchdown. UM should be
Speaker 1: fully healed at this point with the with the extra
Speaker 1: week off, I like Evans as well also be great
Speaker 1: for Evans. So Evans and Godwin, to me, both guys
Speaker 1: that I think are do make some sense. Although again
Speaker 1: I think Brady is the safer place. You don't have
Speaker 1: to guess which receiving option is going to be the
Speaker 1: hot hand. So that brings us to Antonio Brown is
Speaker 1: the next wide receiver to talk about. He's I think
Speaker 1: that's too much money for a guy, although he practiced
Speaker 1: in full on Friday. And there's a contrarian angle here
Speaker 1: where people just aren't gonna, aren't gonna want to risk
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown because he's got the the knee injury. UM,
Speaker 1: but we don't know what is snaptown is gonna look
Speaker 1: like there's always the risk of aggravation on the injury.
Speaker 1: So that's a Bucks is a lot for an injured player,
Speaker 1: and I think the only way you take Antonio Brown
Speaker 1: is if you want to go contrarian. The other receivers
Speaker 1: are are pretty interesting in that Tyler Johnson's only eight
Speaker 1: hundred bucks ian practically free spot. He only had nineteen
Speaker 1: snaps last week with Antonio Brown out. UM whether or
Speaker 1: not they would put a rookie receiver in the Super
Speaker 1: Bowl in a position to have to make a big play,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure, and that's a that's a fair question. Um.
Speaker 1: He plays on the outside, and he's got neutral, relatively
Speaker 1: neutral matchups on the outside, probably slightly negative matchups actually
Speaker 1: UM against Brenland Award on the outside for Tyler Johnson
Speaker 1: und Bucks though, is is pretty compelling. One of the
Speaker 1: cheapest plausible players you could put into a draft Kings lineup.
Speaker 1: Then the last receiver, Scottie Miller coming in Bucks. I
Speaker 1: liked him a lot more when Antonio Brown was looked
Speaker 1: like he was gonna be out, But it looks like
Speaker 1: Brown's gonna be in. He played UM quite a bit
Speaker 1: last week. With Brown out. Now your angle on Miller
Speaker 1: is basically this, He's super fast and the outside cornerbacks
Speaker 1: Bland Award are slower on the slower side. There four
Speaker 1: six guys for five guys, and so that means that
Speaker 1: Miller's got a chance to break a long one. And
Speaker 1: if you're in a bigger contest, maybe that's an angle
Speaker 1: that you could you could try to work in for
Speaker 1: for Addie, Miller average sixteen yards per reception, so you know,
Speaker 1: if you just get maybe three receptions out of him,
Speaker 1: you know you're you're sitting at a pretty decent game
Speaker 1: right there, and maybe he breaks a long one. So
Speaker 1: that's your home run play, I think, is Scottie Miller.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the uh. The Tampa Bay tight ends
Speaker 1: Cameron brad missed Friday's practice with a back injury. It
Speaker 1: looks like he's gonna be a game time decision. Back
Speaker 1: injuries are are tricky, They aggravate easily. He had six
Speaker 1: targets in the earlier matchup Um, and his usage has
Speaker 1: consistently gone up lately while Grons has basically been going down.
Speaker 1: But the injury and sharing with Gronk makes this a
Speaker 1: risky play at seventy. Still, you know he's been fantasy
Speaker 1: viable here for three fans for all three of the
Speaker 1: Bucks playoff games. So there's a little something that you
Speaker 1: could get done with Cameron Braid here Bucks high risk.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people will be really worried.
Speaker 1: Would it be because you don't miss a Friday practice?
Speaker 1: Um with It's usually it's a bad sign, needless to say.
Speaker 1: Then let's talk about Gronkowski. So if Braid is out,
Speaker 1: Gronkos Gronkowski Bucks gets really interesting. In the earlier matchup,
Speaker 1: he led all Tampa Bay receivers. The earlier matchup with
Speaker 1: the Chiefs week twelve, he led all Tampa Bay receivers
Speaker 1: and yards um. He had six catches for a hundreds
Speaker 1: six yards. But since then his average game is three
Speaker 1: catches for twenty three yards. But again, if Braid's out,
Speaker 1: I think people are gonna pile on Rob Gronkowski. You
Speaker 1: might want to to at only hundred bucks. All right,
Speaker 1: let's take a quick break when we come back, let's
Speaker 1: break down the Kansas City side of the matchup. Welcome
Speaker 1: back Paul Jarchie in with you flying solo today breaking
Speaker 1: down the Super Bowl from a fantasy perspective, and specifically
Speaker 1: for DFS play and Draft Kings in particular, That's where
Speaker 1: I'd like to play. I think myself and many of
Speaker 1: the people listening are d k n G owners, So
Speaker 1: you know, we want to support the company we own
Speaker 1: a little, a little tiny piece of why not. So
Speaker 1: let's go to the Kansas City side. I want to
Speaker 1: start with the running game again here like we did
Speaker 1: on the Tampa side, because I feel strongly that you
Speaker 1: want to avoid all of the Kansas City runners. Levy
Speaker 1: on Bell maybe hobbling back is not even not even
Speaker 1: remotely in this conversation. Uh, let's go to Darryl Williams.
Speaker 1: A lot of people really making a big mistake here.
Speaker 1: I believe seventy hundred dollars way too high. Clyde Edwards
Speaker 1: A Layer is fully healthy, practicing full and remember when
Speaker 1: he's healthy, the other runners get ghosted in this offense.
Speaker 1: The average game in the month before his injury, Clyde
Speaker 1: Edwards A Layer was averaging fourteen carries for fifty four
Speaker 1: rushing yards for Darryl Williams. The month of games before
Speaker 1: Clyde Edwards a Layer's injury, he averaged two carries for
Speaker 1: ten yards, so we want know part of him, Clyde
Speaker 1: Edwards Layer healthy. I think that moves Terrell Williams the bench,
Speaker 1: and I think your only prospects are a potential one
Speaker 1: yard touchdown plunge for Darryll Williams. That's it, And I
Speaker 1: don't think you want to play those odds. So he's
Speaker 1: at totally out. I mean, for me, Clyde Edwards Layer
Speaker 1: at ten five hundred, I'm not I'm not a fan
Speaker 1: at that price. I've only got a C grade on
Speaker 1: him at that price because I think it's just I
Speaker 1: think it's too expensive. Let's go to the Let's go
Speaker 1: to the passing Gable'll start with Patrick Mahomes, most expensive
Speaker 1: player on the entire docket at eighteen hundred dollars, sorry,
Speaker 1: eighteen thousand dollars. Went berserk in the Week twelve matchup
Speaker 1: with four hundred sixty two yards and three touchdowns. He
Speaker 1: threw the ball forty nine times, and we are going
Speaker 1: to get a ton of volume in this game. Um
Speaker 1: Tampa is the number of leagus. Number one run defense
Speaker 1: by well three different ways, Number one in rushing yards allowed,
Speaker 1: Number two yards per carry, and number three in rushing
Speaker 1: plays scene No team. No team gets run out less
Speaker 1: than Tampa, So you know it's gonna be a ton
Speaker 1: of passing for Patrick Mahomes. Foot is fully healed, so
Speaker 1: that's some good news for him there. Volume is gonna
Speaker 1: be really high. But the really big question here, how
Speaker 1: is this gonna work without his two tackles. This is
Speaker 1: a huge question mark and one that could absolutely decide
Speaker 1: the outcome of this game. Uh, Mike Gremers is a
Speaker 1: massive liability. He's gonna be playing the wrong side of
Speaker 1: the field from where he normally plays. He shouldn't be
Speaker 1: on the field in my opinion, but he's gonna go
Speaker 1: from right to left side. Then they're gonna have a
Speaker 1: guard turned tackle, and Andrew Wiley was gonna have to
Speaker 1: play the other side he doesn't normally. They got we got,
Speaker 1: We got both of the edges manned by guys who
Speaker 1: don't play there. It's a huge concern and should be.
Speaker 1: And I think it's going to mean that we're gonna
Speaker 1: see I'll get We're gonna see Patrick Mahomes get the
Speaker 1: ball out a lot faster. We're gonna see fewer darned
Speaker 1: downfield passes. I think that's going to affect Tyreek Hill
Speaker 1: in particular. Although getting the ball quickly to Tyree Hill
Speaker 1: is always a good idea too, um, but where he's
Speaker 1: so lethal has been the deep downfield stuff. I don't
Speaker 1: know that he's gonna have time against the awesome pass
Speaker 1: rush that Tampa Bay can present against those backup tackles. Now.
Speaker 1: Also of notice, you're thinking about the Kansas City passing game.
Speaker 1: Tampa's two starting safeties, Antoine Winfield Jr. And Jordan Whitehead,
Speaker 1: both look like they're going to play, but neither one is,
Speaker 1: and so when Mahomes can get time to go deep,
Speaker 1: those safeties may not be in position to make the plays.
Speaker 1: So that's that's another consideration that you'll want to have
Speaker 1: in with your Patrick mahomesh decision. At eighteen thousand dollars,
Speaker 1: and I've got to be grade on him. Let's go
Speaker 1: over to the wide receivers. Tyreek Hill is fifteen thousand,
Speaker 1: six hundred bucks. He had the explosive game in the
Speaker 1: first match up with two hundred sixty nine yards and
Speaker 1: three touchdowns. He was targeted fifteen times and he caught
Speaker 1: thirteen of them, which is staggering. Hill run sixty of
Speaker 1: his place from the slot where he will face Sean
Speaker 1: Murphy Bunting, by far the weakest Lincoln on tampas quarterbacks cornerbacks.
Speaker 1: I know that he's got the interceptions in this playoff run,
Speaker 1: but just as a coverage corner, he's not that good.
Speaker 1: He allowed the second most touchdowns of all cornerbacks during
Speaker 1: the regular season. He gave up eighty one yards in
Speaker 1: his coverage last week against Green Bay, and in the
Speaker 1: first meeting Sean Murphy Bunting allowed one hundred thirty one
Speaker 1: of Hills two hundred sixty yards, so roughly half of
Speaker 1: all of hills yards came against John Murphy Bunting by himself.
Speaker 1: He also gave up two of hills three touchdowns. So
Speaker 1: I like Hill. I've got an eight grade. I actually
Speaker 1: like him more than I like Mahomes at their relative prices.
Speaker 1: Let's migrate over to Sammy Watkins sixty dollars. Um, I've
Speaker 1: got a integrate on him. I know he practiced him
Speaker 1: full on Friday, and he likely plays, but calf injuries
Speaker 1: are tricky. They're known for aggravation. He might be on
Speaker 1: a snap count and he did nothing in the first
Speaker 1: meeting with Tampa. He primarily plays on the outside, he'll
Speaker 1: see Jamal Deane and Carlton Davis. Those are both competent quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: Watching Watkins match up his neutral six hundred bucks, I
Speaker 1: think I'd rather spend the money elsewhere, But if you
Speaker 1: want him at that price, I guess you could. And
Speaker 1: I thought about making him a see just for the
Speaker 1: contrarian angle, but I don't like my contrarian angles to
Speaker 1: be guys that are injured if I can avoid it,
Speaker 1: so I've I've got a bench grade on Sammy Watkins
Speaker 1: at sixty three hundred bucks. The other receivers, let's go
Speaker 1: to me. Cole Hardman, eight four hundred dollars seems like
Speaker 1: a lot for a guy who usually touches the ball
Speaker 1: to three maybe four times. Last week was his lowest
Speaker 1: snapcount since Thanksgiving. And you know the deal on Hardman.
Speaker 1: You're just hoping that lightning strikes, maybe you get a
Speaker 1: fluke return touchdown or something. When Hardman comes on the field,
Speaker 1: he faces uh depth cornerback Ross Cockrell. He forces excuse me,
Speaker 1: depth cornerback Ross Cockrell to play a second slot corner um.
Speaker 1: It's not terrible, but by the standards of journeyman backup
Speaker 1: quarterback cornerbacks is okay, and that's potentially a spot where
Speaker 1: Hardman could beat cock Rolls. So yeah, though, just it
Speaker 1: feels like too much money for a guy who's gonna
Speaker 1: only have the ball in his hands, you know, in
Speaker 1: most games, like two, three, or four times. So I've
Speaker 1: only got to see grade on Hartman. Um. Let's go
Speaker 1: a little deeper into the depth chart. DeMarcus Robinson Bucks
Speaker 1: is basically free. He was removed from the COVID list
Speaker 1: on Friday. He went untargeted in the kind in the
Speaker 1: previous game, the Conference championship game total dart throw. But
Speaker 1: at twenty one bucks, that's actually pretty compelling, and so
Speaker 1: is Byron Pringle. And by the way, I've got a
Speaker 1: C grade in DeMarcus Robinson. I've gotta see great on
Speaker 1: Byron Pringle, and I like Pringle better. He's only twenty
Speaker 1: seven dollars, so he's almost free to get this the
Speaker 1: Chiefs receiver who played the most snaps last week, Byron Pringle,
Speaker 1: who had the most snaps in week seventeen, Byron Pringle,
Speaker 1: who did Tyreek Hill go to bat four? In In
Speaker 1: with the media during Super Bowl week, Byron Pringle says
Speaker 1: he's got to get on the field more often. If
Speaker 1: Watkins doesn't play fully, if d Watsons doesn't play at all,
Speaker 1: I really like Pringle. If Watkins is only going to
Speaker 1: be on a snap count or whatever, and you're not
Speaker 1: gonna know going in, Pringles a fascinating play um, So
Speaker 1: I'd give it. I'd give him some thought at bucks
Speaker 1: a C grade on Pringle, and I'll actually like him
Speaker 1: better than DeMarcus Robinson. He's been way more active than
Speaker 1: Robinson has. So then we get to Travis Kelsey. As
Speaker 1: we migrate over to the tight ends, I've got some
Speaker 1: concern here. First, let me I mention he was targeted
Speaker 1: eight times in the earlier meeting. He caught all eight
Speaker 1: of his passes, but he did not score. Tampa has
Speaker 1: struggled against tight ends throughout the second half of the season,
Speaker 1: including Robert Tonyan's touchdown last week and Logan Thomas's big
Speaker 1: game in that wild card round. But here's the question
Speaker 1: on Kelsey that I don't think enough people are talking about.
Speaker 1: Is he gonna have to stay back and block to
Speaker 1: help out Ramors and Wiley, you know, those backup tackles.
Speaker 1: I think I'm really nervous that Kelsey is gonna have
Speaker 1: to do a lot of blocking in this game, a lot.
Speaker 1: And that's why I'm I am more nervous about Kelsey
Speaker 1: in this game than almost any other game with Kelsey.
Speaker 1: Normally you just put him in and forget about him.
Speaker 1: Sixteen thousand five dollars a lot for a guy who's
Speaker 1: gonna end up blocking. Now. You know, obviously Kelsey's an
Speaker 1: elite player at his position, and he in just real
Speaker 1: life fantasy, not putting a DFS price on it anything else.
Speaker 1: He's he's usually a sure thing. But boy, sixteen thousand
Speaker 1: five dollars for a guy who's gonna block a lot
Speaker 1: is really touchy. I've gotta be grade on Travis Kelsey, Um,
Speaker 1: but I don't think he's going to have the explosive
Speaker 1: style games that he has had so far in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: All right, there you go, you twenty minute long breakdown
Speaker 1: of one game. Normally in Fantasy Football Weekly we do
Speaker 1: our matchups in five minutes. This is a twenty minute matchup.
Speaker 1: Holy cow, um, thank you for thank you for tuning in.
Speaker 1: This week, We've got a bunch more great. We really
Speaker 1: start shifting to offseason topics beginning next week after the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Uh. Great for Dynasty players, Empire players, does
Speaker 1: anybody who's looking ahead to the season. We're gonna start
Speaker 1: talking about some of the new coaching stuff. We've got
Speaker 1: some of their odds and ends of items that you
Speaker 1: may have missed in December that we'll talk about as well.
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening Fantasy Football Weekly talk to you
Speaker 1: a week. Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production
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