1
00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:08,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

2
00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:10,280
Speaker 2: Good morning.

3
00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:13,119
Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

4
00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:14,640
Speaker 1: stories we're following today.

5
00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:17,639
Speaker 3: Karen, let's get more on this global market route. We

6
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,480
Speaker 3: are joined by Bloomberg's Kritty, Goopta and Kritty. We saw

7
00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 3: a historic sell off in Asia overnight.

8
00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:27,560
Speaker 4: We certainly did, and the selloff is one of historic proportions.

9
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:31,160
Speaker 4: The topics down twelve percent, the Nike also down another

10
00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:34,360
Speaker 4: twelve percent. But it's not just Japan. You're also seeing

11
00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:36,240
Speaker 4: the stock really spread off. Stock self spread off in

12
00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:39,600
Speaker 4: the chip sector across Asia. COSPI, the KAUSDAK, basically the

13
00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,000
Speaker 4: South Korean indexes that have that major Samsung havevyweight, both

14
00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,080
Speaker 4: down somewhere between eight and nine percent. You even have

15
00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:48,320
Speaker 4: the KOSAK in particular, which is of course at the

16
00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,479
Speaker 4: South Korean version of the Nasdaq, basically down a whopping

17
00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,640
Speaker 4: eleven percent. That's just in the equity space, Nathan, you

18
00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:56,840
Speaker 4: also have a similar story over in the currency space,

19
00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:59,960
Speaker 4: where dollar yen now at a one forty two handle,

20
00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:01,800
Speaker 4: really shaking things up in the effect space.

21
00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're seeing this sell off spread into Europe where

22
00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,920
Speaker 3: you are, though it doesn't look quite as bad there, Critty.

23
00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,400
Speaker 4: It doesn't, but it is still read on the screen

24
00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:11,200
Speaker 4: in line with the moves that you are seeing globally.

25
00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:14,280
Speaker 4: About a two percent decline in the eurostocks fifty. The

26
00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,640
Speaker 4: Footy one hundred is your underperformer as well, down about

27
00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,920
Speaker 4: two point two percent. Ironically, France isn't selling off as much.

28
00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:21,959
Speaker 4: It's only down one point eight percent. But the reason

29
00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,360
Speaker 4: for that is simply that these markets aren't as deep

30
00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:26,560
Speaker 4: as the ones in Asia. They're not as liquid as

31
00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:27,560
Speaker 4: the ones in the States either.

32
00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,319
Speaker 1: All right, Creatie goopto will be checking in with you

33
00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,880
Speaker 1: all morning. Thank you. Treasuries do continue to rally this morning.

34
00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,880
Speaker 1: Bets increasing there will be an emergency FED rate cut.

35
00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,760
Speaker 1: In fact, traders now see roughly sixty percent chance of

36
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,559
Speaker 1: an emergency quarter point cut within one week. JP Morgan

37
00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,640
Speaker 1: and Citigroup are revamping their forecast to predict a half

38
00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:50,640
Speaker 1: point cut in the US in September. It all follows

39
00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,960
Speaker 1: Friday's weaker than expected JOMPS report and believes that the

40
00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,160
Speaker 1: Fed is too slow to support a slowing economy. Former

41
00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,320
Speaker 1: Offen economist Claudia sum to a Bloomberg Radio that data

42
00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,920
Speaker 1: triggers her famous recession indicator.

43
00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:07,200
Speaker 5: This summ rule way too much momentum in the unemployment

44
00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:10,760
Speaker 5: rate in recent months, I mean four point three percent.

45
00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,640
Speaker 5: So whether we are at that moment of a recession

46
00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:18,400
Speaker 5: or not, this is your build into substantial weakening in

47
00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:19,239
Speaker 5: the labor market.

48
00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:23,160
Speaker 1: Claudia sam with some consulting, made the comments Friday on

49
00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:26,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance right after the job's report, And.

50
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,359
Speaker 3: Karen, as you mentioned, we're seeing Nasdaq futures plunge now

51
00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,640
Speaker 3: nearly four percent this morning. Several big names are in

52
00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,320
Speaker 3: the red. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg's Lisa Matteo.

53
00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:39,079
Speaker 6: Lisa, good morning. Yeah, we're seeing the tech sell off extending.

54
00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,120
Speaker 6: We have Nvidia down more than eight percent. We have

55
00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:45,040
Speaker 6: Microsoft metap plunging more than four percent, Alphabet down more

56
00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,320
Speaker 6: than four percent, Amazon falling more than two percent. We

57
00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,080
Speaker 6: have in Tesla taking a hit, down more than five percent.

58
00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,359
Speaker 6: But this comes after the Naszac entered into that technical

59
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,320
Speaker 6: correction on Friday, and this was amid that drawback from

60
00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:00,600
Speaker 6: the overheated artificial intelligence rally. Now that gate page actually

61
00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,720
Speaker 6: touched a record high less than a month ago, but

62
00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:07,399
Speaker 6: it's not just AI. Investors also concerned about over elevated

63
00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,920
Speaker 6: valuations on the impact of also the presidential election on

64
00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,800
Speaker 6: geopolitical tensions in New York. Lisa Mateo, Bloomberg Radio.

65
00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,840
Speaker 1: Right, Lisa, thank you. Apple shares they're down about eight

66
00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:21,239
Speaker 1: percent over the weekend. Berkshire Hathaway revealed it's still nearly

67
00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:24,079
Speaker 1: half of its position in Apple during the second quarter,

68
00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,200
Speaker 1: and we get more from Bloomberg's Doug Prisner.

69
00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,320
Speaker 7: The move could be interpreted as a lack of conviction

70
00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,880
Speaker 7: in the Apple growth story. At the end of March,

71
00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:36,480
Speaker 7: Berkshire's position was worth roughly one hundred and forty billion dollars. Then,

72
00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,360
Speaker 7: as of the end of June, it was worth eighty

73
00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,840
Speaker 7: four billion. Since twenty sixteen, when Berkshire first has closed

74
00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,320
Speaker 7: its stake, Apple shares have sored nearly nine hundred percent.

75
00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:50,480
Speaker 7: Even with the sale, Apple does remain Berkshire's largest single position.

76
00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:54,839
Speaker 7: If you're wondering about valuation, Apple's multiple is thirty three

77
00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,320
Speaker 7: times future profits. That's eleven points higher than the s

78
00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,960
Speaker 7: and P five hundred our Cime, Derek Prisoner, Bloomberg Radio.

79
00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,240
Speaker 3: Thanks Doug. Tech stocks aren't the only assets selling off

80
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,960
Speaker 3: this morning. We're also watching cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is down nearly

81
00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,360
Speaker 3: eleven percent, adding to a thirteen point one percent drop

82
00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,160
Speaker 3: last week, the worst then since the period when the

83
00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:18,479
Speaker 3: FTX exchange imploded. US exchange traded funds for bitcoin suffer

84
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,520
Speaker 3: their largest outflows in about three months last Friday.

85
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,120
Speaker 1: Well, Nathan, we'll have much more on the market selloff

86
00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,039
Speaker 1: in five minutes when we speak with RBC Capital Markets

87
00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,440
Speaker 1: Head of US equity Strategy, Lori Calvesina. But now we

88
00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,920
Speaker 1: want to get the latest on the Middle East tensions

89
00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:37,040
Speaker 1: there maybe piling on to negative market sentiment. Israel is

90
00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:41,039
Speaker 1: racing for possible attacks from Iran and regional militias after

91
00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:44,520
Speaker 1: the high profile assassinations of Hamas and hes Beila leaders

92
00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,960
Speaker 1: last week. Prime Minister Benjamin Ettnyah, who says his country

93
00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,800
Speaker 1: is in a quote multi front war against Iran's Axis

94
00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,359
Speaker 1: of Evil. But the White House is urging NETANYAHUO to

95
00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:58,679
Speaker 1: redouble ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, even as the US moves

96
00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,200
Speaker 1: in a fighter jets Squander and keeps an aircraft carrier

97
00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:06,360
Speaker 1: in the area. Here's Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer.

98
00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,600
Speaker 8: What we're trying to do is prepare for any eventuality,

99
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:13,760
Speaker 8: any possibility that's only responsible for the United States. Obviously,

100
00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,040
Speaker 8: we've been quite clear that we'll work with our ally, Israel,

101
00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,599
Speaker 8: to defend itself against any threats that it faces, and

102
00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:22,400
Speaker 8: we are in a moment that appears to be of

103
00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:23,080
Speaker 8: heightened threat.

104
00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,920
Speaker 1: White House Deputy National Security Advisor John Finer made those

105
00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:31,520
Speaker 1: comments on CBS's Face the Nation heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio.

106
00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,320
Speaker 3: Think Karen Well, the White House focuses on geopolitical tensions.

107
00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,880
Speaker 3: Vice President Kamala Harris is reportedly focusing on the final

108
00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:41,040
Speaker 3: stretch of choosing a running mate in her presidential campaign.

109
00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:43,360
Speaker 3: We get that story from Bloomberg's Ed Baxter.

110
00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,679
Speaker 9: Three people on our shortlist met with her over the weekend.

111
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,839
Speaker 9: Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Minnesota

112
00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:56,280
Speaker 9: Governor Tim Walls. Kentucky Governor Andy Basher, Transportation Secretary Pete Buddhachic,

113
00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:01,159
Speaker 9: and Illinois Governor JB. Pritzker also names that are still

114
00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,520
Speaker 9: being floated now. The Democratic Party is planning a virtually

115
00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:08,880
Speaker 9: nominated ticket by August seventh, and Harris has said the

116
00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,640
Speaker 9: shop plans day at the campaign trail weather running mate tomorrow,

117
00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,000
Speaker 9: Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio.

118
00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:16,520
Speaker 10: All right, ed, thanks.

119
00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:20,960
Speaker 1: Time now for a look at some of the other

120
00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:23,279
Speaker 1: stories making news in New York and around the world.

121
00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,400
Speaker 1: For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker.

122
00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:29,640
Speaker 11: John, Good Morning, Good morning, Karen. Debbie strengthened into a hurricane.

123
00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,440
Speaker 11: Has the system neared landflow in Florida's Big Bend region,

124
00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:35,640
Speaker 11: where residents have fled ahead of a potential week long

125
00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:40,200
Speaker 11: disaster across the South. Bloomberg mediorologist Rob Carolyn is tracking

126
00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:41,280
Speaker 11: the storm now.

127
00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,719
Speaker 10: The very big concern with Debbie is as it moves

128
00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,960
Speaker 10: inlet over in North Florida over the next day or so,

129
00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:48,360
Speaker 10: the steering currents are going to collapse, and that means

130
00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,400
Speaker 10: there's going to be nothing pushing the storm along, So

131
00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:54,359
Speaker 10: it's just going to conder meander over portions of southeastern Georgia,

132
00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,880
Speaker 10: maybe eventually off the coast of southeastern South Carolina. This

133
00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,600
Speaker 10: means some very heavy localized rain are going to fall

134
00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,680
Speaker 10: over North Florida, Eastern Georgia, and South Carolina.

135
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,720
Speaker 11: Through the first part of the workweek, top wins intensified

136
00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,720
Speaker 11: to eighty miles per hour, making Debbie a Category one.

137
00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:13,760
Speaker 11: System Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has revoked a plea agreement

138
00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,720
Speaker 11: reached last week with the accused mastermind of the September

139
00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 11: eleventh terror attacks and two alleged accomplices. That story this

140
00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,600
Speaker 11: morning from Bloomberg's Denise Penegreni Secretary.

141
00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:26,440
Speaker 12: Austin has now assumed direct oversight of the case and

142
00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,320
Speaker 12: canceled the plea agreement with Khaleage Sheik Mohammed and his

143
00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,800
Speaker 12: lodged accomplices for the attacks that killed nearly three thousand

144
00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,200
Speaker 12: people in New York City, at the Pentagon and in

145
00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:39,080
Speaker 12: a Pennsylvania field. This effectively reinstates it as a death

146
00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:43,200
Speaker 12: penalty case. Austin also relieved the senior Defense Department official

147
00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 12: responsible for oversight of this case. His decision brought relief

148
00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,920
Speaker 12: to some family members of victims who had expressed anger

149
00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,600
Speaker 12: over the deal, but it also left uncertain the next

150
00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,440
Speaker 12: steps of the prosecution. Denise Pelgrinny Bloomberg Radio, and.

151
00:07:56,440 --> 00:08:00,320
Speaker 11: After ten days in theaters, Deadpool and Wolverine ready the

152
00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:04,080
Speaker 11: highest grossing R rated movie ever. In a second weekend,

153
00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:07,840
Speaker 11: the Marvel Studios Blockboster, starring Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman,

154
00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:12,200
Speaker 11: continued to steamroll through movie theaters collecting ninety seven million

155
00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:16,320
Speaker 11: dollars according to Studio estimates. Global News twenty four hours

156
00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,800
Speaker 11: a day and whatever you wanted with Bloomberg News Now.

157
00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:22,800
Speaker 11: I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg Nathan and Karen.

158
00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:29,960
Speaker 1: John, thank you time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update

159
00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:31,080
Speaker 1: with John stash Hour.

160
00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:32,360
Speaker 7: John, Good morning, Good morning.

161
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:34,600
Speaker 13: Care of the Yankees and Blue Jays. Rubbert game at

162
00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,240
Speaker 13: the stadium and won Soto Homemwerd seventh, thenning Yanks had

163
00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,360
Speaker 13: their first lead, Toronto tie the game. Then there was

164
00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:42,079
Speaker 13: a rain delay, and then there was a DJ Lemy

165
00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,280
Speaker 13: who walk off hit the tenth innning. The Yanks won

166
00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,440
Speaker 13: four to three. They've won seven of their last eight.

167
00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:48,960
Speaker 13: Mets held the five Hits lost three to two. They

168
00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,320
Speaker 13: lost two of three to the Angels in Anaheim. The

169
00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,360
Speaker 13: Chicago White Sox swept by the Twins. The White Sox

170
00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:56,760
Speaker 13: have lost twenty games in a row. They have been

171
00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:00,679
Speaker 13: only two longer losing streaks since nineteen hundred. The sixty

172
00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,679
Speaker 13: one Phillies dropped twenty three straight. The nineteen eighty eight

173
00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,480
Speaker 13: Orioles began their season oh and twenty one. The White

174
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:10,280
Speaker 13: Sox will try again tonight in Oakland Noah Isles one

175
00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,240
Speaker 13: to one hundred meters in Paris by five one thousands

176
00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,640
Speaker 13: of a second. There's a belief that it was the

177
00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,360
Speaker 13: closest race in Olympic history, not official because they didn't

178
00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,120
Speaker 13: used to carry the times out that many decimal points.

179
00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,520
Speaker 13: With Lyles can now be called the fastest man in

180
00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:24,880
Speaker 13: the world. He is the first American to win one

181
00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:27,960
Speaker 13: hundred meters in twenty years. Novak Djokovic can now be

182
00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,360
Speaker 13: called an Olympic gold medal winner. He beat Carlos Alcareza

183
00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:33,600
Speaker 13: and the thirty seven year old winner of twenty four

184
00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:34,560
Speaker 13: Grand Slams.

185
00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:39,959
Speaker 14: Was asked where this ranks twenty twelve opening ceremony in London,

186
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,160
Speaker 14: carrying the flag for my country the opening ceremony opening

187
00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,120
Speaker 14: in the Olympic Games is the best feeling that an

188
00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:52,240
Speaker 14: athlete could have until today. This kind of supersedes everything

189
00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:57,920
Speaker 14: that I imagined, that hoped that I could experience, and that

190
00:09:58,000 --> 00:09:58,640
Speaker 14: I could feel.

191
00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:01,360
Speaker 13: Scotti Schefler on Olympic go then golf for the furious

192
00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,360
Speaker 13: finish final round sixty two. Had Bobby Finke not won

193
00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:06,920
Speaker 13: the fifteen hundred meters in the last individual event of

194
00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:08,800
Speaker 13: the Games, would have been the only time in Olympic

195
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,360
Speaker 13: history no US goals and individual men's swimming, but Fink one.

196
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,400
Speaker 13: He broke the world record. The US men did not

197
00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,800
Speaker 13: win the medley. Really, they had won each of the

198
00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,760
Speaker 13: fifteen previous ones. They were in Johns Dashedward Bloomberg Sports

199
00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:22,640
Speaker 13: Karen daven.

200
00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,880
Speaker 9: Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

201
00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,880
Speaker 9: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

202
00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:33,120
Speaker 9: Bloomberg Business app.

203
00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:37,120
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. The

204
00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,760
Speaker 3: global stock route that began last week is intensifying this morning,

205
00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,520
Speaker 3: growing concerns about a weakening economy and a FED that

206
00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:45,400
Speaker 3: may have been too late to act to stop it.

207
00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 3: To get some perspective on this market reaction, we are

208
00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,720
Speaker 3: joined now by Lori Calvacina, head of US Equity Strategy

209
00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:55,040
Speaker 3: at RBC Capital Markets. Luri, good morning. It is very

210
00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,240
Speaker 3: tough to find some green on the screen this morning.

211
00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,280
Speaker 3: Is it a pivot point for the market or our

212
00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:00,680
Speaker 3: investors reacting?

213
00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,079
Speaker 15: Hi, Nathan, Well, thanks for having me. Look. I think

214
00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,360
Speaker 15: there was a lot of confusion on Friday with the

215
00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,880
Speaker 15: jobs report. I think we also had some negative data

216
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,960
Speaker 15: points from ism last week, and to be honest, it

217
00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:14,880
Speaker 15: really stands in contrast on both those reports with the

218
00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:18,199
Speaker 15: tone we've been hearing from companies throughout this reporting season.

219
00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:20,840
Speaker 15: So I think that there is a lot of sorting

220
00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,640
Speaker 15: out to do right here. I do think that one

221
00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:25,560
Speaker 15: of the reasons we've seen such a big reaction in

222
00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:28,920
Speaker 15: markets has been sort of the sharp detour that we've seen.

223
00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:30,400
Speaker 15: But I do think we need a little bit more

224
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,280
Speaker 15: information at this point as.

225
00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:35,880
Speaker 3: That sorting out period continues. Lorie, We're seeing markets already

226
00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,160
Speaker 3: pricing in something like sixty percent odds that the Fed's

227
00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,360
Speaker 3: going to cut rates this week. I mean, how would

228
00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:46,079
Speaker 3: stocks react if the Fed essentially makes up for last

229
00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:47,000
Speaker 3: week's lost time.

230
00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,480
Speaker 15: So I think that we always have to ask about

231
00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,320
Speaker 15: the reason that these sorts of things happen. I remember,

232
00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,480
Speaker 15: this is market pricing, this is an official action. We

233
00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,080
Speaker 15: did sort of look at this phenomenon last year during

234
00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,840
Speaker 15: the Regional Banking CIS, and what we found was that

235
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,800
Speaker 15: really you have to be careful what you wish for,

236
00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:07,600
Speaker 15: you know, in this kind of regards. And I know

237
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,280
Speaker 15: there's been a lot of talk about, you know, sort

238
00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,480
Speaker 15: of fifty basis point cuts that have come out. We

239
00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,760
Speaker 15: did actually publish something on that this morning, looking at

240
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:19,400
Speaker 15: when we've seen fifty basis point cuts in just recent decades,

241
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,040
Speaker 15: and it's tended to be associated with periods like the GFC,

242
00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,360
Speaker 15: periods like COVID. You know, at the moment, that doesn't

243
00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,640
Speaker 15: seem to be the sort of environment that we are in.

244
00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:30,040
Speaker 15: So again, I think we need to wait and see

245
00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:32,280
Speaker 15: what we're going to get from the FED. But if

246
00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,319
Speaker 15: you look at the history, the fifty basis point cuts,

247
00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:37,960
Speaker 15: you know, just in recent decades have been associated with

248
00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,600
Speaker 15: sort of major periods of distress and markets. You can

249
00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:42,760
Speaker 15: go back farther and look at the nineties and earlier

250
00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:45,680
Speaker 15: to find other examples where that was not the case.

251
00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:47,160
Speaker 15: But I do think that's the kind of playbook a

252
00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:48,640
Speaker 15: live investors have in their heads.

253
00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:50,960
Speaker 3: So while we wait for the FED, and while we

254
00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:55,160
Speaker 3: wait for further data, do you see this route going

255
00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:58,640
Speaker 3: further or could this be a by opportunity.

256
00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:01,560
Speaker 15: I think we're going to have to watch the data

257
00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:03,480
Speaker 15: this week that comes in. But what I will tell

258
00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,160
Speaker 15: you is that we came into the third quarter thinking

259
00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,080
Speaker 15: that we were at risk of a pullback. Now, we

260
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:12,760
Speaker 15: did not have sudden concerns about a recession on our

261
00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:14,920
Speaker 15: BINGO card. But the reality is that if you look

262
00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:18,480
Speaker 15: at the CFTC data, and we looked at US equity

263
00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:21,679
Speaker 15: futures positioning, this is something we track every week. If

264
00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,560
Speaker 15: you look at where we've been throughout most of this year, frankly,

265
00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,720
Speaker 15: it's been on US equity future positioning broadly, and S

266
00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:31,080
Speaker 15: and P five hundred future positioning in particular above the

267
00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:36,040
Speaker 15: January twenty eighteen highs and above the February twenty twenty highs,

268
00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,000
Speaker 15: and so we had, you know, obviously a tough year

269
00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:39,880
Speaker 15: in twenty eighteen, but we did have you know, sort

270
00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:41,640
Speaker 15: of a milder draw down on the low ball and

271
00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,960
Speaker 15: wined early that year twenty twenty. Obviously we all know

272
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,160
Speaker 15: what happened there. But from a positioning perspective, whether you're

273
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,520
Speaker 15: looking S and P naddak futures positioning as well, has

274
00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,800
Speaker 15: looked extremely extended and we have looked vulnerable to bad

275
00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:55,959
Speaker 15: news from that perspective.

276
00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:59,280
Speaker 3: You know, I think this is just maybe the last

277
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:02,680
Speaker 3: time or two we spoke, you had cautiously raised your

278
00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:05,600
Speaker 3: S and P five hundred price target for the end

279
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:09,480
Speaker 3: of this year. Now that we've seen this pretty significant

280
00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:13,040
Speaker 3: dive this morning and the potential for more. Are you

281
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:13,760
Speaker 3: rethinking that?

282
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,719
Speaker 15: So what we had baked into our outlook was the

283
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:19,920
Speaker 15: idea that we would see a five to ten percent

284
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,680
Speaker 15: type draw down, and that's a garden variety type drawdown.

285
00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:25,480
Speaker 15: But if you go beyond ten percent, what the history

286
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:27,480
Speaker 15: tends to tell us is that it's associated with a

287
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:31,400
Speaker 15: pretty intense growth scare. So obviously those risks have risen

288
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:33,720
Speaker 15: in here. We don't know that it's certain we're going

289
00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,200
Speaker 15: to get that time of twenty percent draw down, but

290
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,520
Speaker 15: if you look at those periods, especially in recent history,

291
00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,160
Speaker 15: we've seen those kinds of draw downs fifteen percent back

292
00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:46,200
Speaker 15: in twenty ten, twenty percent, and twenty eleven. Obviously, if

293
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,520
Speaker 15: you go back to the twenty fifteen twenty sixteen growth scare,

294
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,560
Speaker 15: I think we fell about fourteen percent. So those are

295
00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:53,440
Speaker 15: the kinds of periods. We have not baked in that

296
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 15: kind of scenario into our modeling.

297
00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 3: As of now, about thirty seconds left, Laurie, what's it

298
00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:00,920
Speaker 3: going to take to bring confidence back into this market?

299
00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:05,000
Speaker 15: So I think let's watch the sentiment positioning indicators. Remember

300
00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:08,160
Speaker 15: AAII has also looked stretch. When we get down to

301
00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:10,800
Speaker 15: the one standard deviation mark below the long term average

302
00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:13,600
Speaker 15: that has typically, you know, in recent years, given us

303
00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,000
Speaker 15: a buy signal. Also, watch valuations. They've been very extended

304
00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,280
Speaker 15: for the broad market. They've been very extended for the

305
00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,240
Speaker 15: top ten megacat names. Let's watch what happens when those

306
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,160
Speaker 15: numbers get back down to average. We can often see

307
00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 15: markets try to make a stand around those kinds of

308
00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:28,960
Speaker 15: levels and the source of environment.

309
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,080
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on

310
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,680
Speaker 2: the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

311
00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,760
Speaker 1: Look for us on your podcast feed at six am

312
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,480
Speaker 1: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you

313
00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:43,720
Speaker 1: get your podcasts.

314
00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,520
Speaker 2: You can also listen live each morning starting at five

315
00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,160
Speaker 2: am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero

316
00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,040
Speaker 2: in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington,

317
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 2: Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg

318
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:56,800
Speaker 2: nine sixty in San Francisco.

319
00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:00,360
Speaker 1: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

320
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:05,160
Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty

321
00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,400
Speaker 1: plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app,

322
00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:12,480
Speaker 1: Serious XM, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com.

323
00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again

324
00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,240
Speaker 1: tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start

325
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 1: your day, right here on Bloomberg Daybreak