Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Friday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm
Speaker 3: Joe Matthew in Washington. As we prepare to speak with
Speaker 3: Ambassador James Jeffries. I'll bring you up to date quickly
Speaker 3: on what we know here from Israel. The headline on
Speaker 3: the terminal says it all the latest from Israel. UN
Speaker 3: staff give an evacuation order for northern Gaza.
Speaker 4: This is it.
Speaker 3: Israel's armed forces telling the UN to evacuate personnel from
Speaker 3: northern Gaza, indicating that a ground operation could be coming
Speaker 3: soon and that is expected as early as tonight into tomorrow,
Speaker 3: something we've been talking about for the balance of the week.
Speaker 4: Of course.
Speaker 3: In a message that was delivered earlier, underscored by Israeli
Speaker 3: Defense Minister Jova Gallant, hereious, please go south.
Speaker 5: We are going to destroy Jamas infrastwalk jails, hamas head
Speaker 5: Quartels hamas military.
Speaker 3: He appeared along with the Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin,
Speaker 3: who is now in Tel Aviv, just a day after
Speaker 3: Antony Blinkin, the Secretary of State paid a visit. He
Speaker 3: appeared alongside the Israeli Defense Minister and was asked several
Speaker 3: times about the potential for civilian casualties collateral damage inside
Speaker 3: Gaza City.
Speaker 4: Here's the Secretary.
Speaker 6: I've worked with Israeli forces over the years, over many years.
Speaker 6: As you know, I wore a uniform for forty one years.
Speaker 6: My experience in working with the Israeli forces as they
Speaker 6: are professional, they are discipline and they are focused on
Speaker 6: the right things.
Speaker 3: Now as we follow the travels of the Secretary of
Speaker 3: State Antony Blinkn, remembering yesterday he was in Tel Aviv
Speaker 3: where he met not only with government officials beginning with
Speaker 3: benjaminet Yahoo, but also survivors of the attacks last weekend.
Speaker 3: Today he is in cutter where he appeared with the
Speaker 3: Prime Minister in a joint news conference, asked as well
Speaker 3: about this very same mans.
Speaker 7: Israel has the right, Indida has the obligation to defend
Speaker 7: its people and to try to ensure that Hamas can
Speaker 7: never repeat what it's done. We continue to discuss with
Speaker 7: Israel the importance of taking every possible precaution to avoid
Speaker 7: harming civilian. We recognize that many Palestinian families in Gaza
Speaker 7: are suffering through no fault of their own, and the
Speaker 7: Palistinian civilians have lost their lives.
Speaker 3: As we've told you, he also will be visiting Saudi Arabia,
Speaker 3: United Arab Emirates and a few other stops along the
Speaker 3: way as this itinerary expands.
Speaker 4: Making his way through the region.
Speaker 3: Could be some very challenging optics if this invasion does
Speaker 3: begin with him on the road. And that's where we
Speaker 3: start our conversation with James Jeffries, chair of the Middle
Speaker 3: East Program at the Wilson Center, the former Ambassador to
Speaker 3: Iraq and Turkey, a special envoy for the Global Coalition
Speaker 3: to counter the islam State of Iraq and the levant Isis.
Speaker 3: Of course, mister ambassador, is great to see you, and
Speaker 3: we appreciate your joining us today to share your experience
Speaker 3: and your view here. And I'd like to start in
Speaker 3: that same place as we look at what's going on
Speaker 3: here and the potential for this to escalate. Is this
Speaker 3: not the very scenario that you've spent your years worrying
Speaker 3: about seeing actually happen.
Speaker 8: Absolutely I've been involved in many mini waws, conflicts, exchanges
Speaker 8: of fire, bombing, raids and such in the Middle East.
Speaker 8: That's path of the course. This one is different like
Speaker 8: the Yom Kippo Wah fifty years ago where Egypt in
Speaker 8: Syria almost overran Egypt like nine to eleven, only far worse,
Speaker 8: like Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. This is one of the
Speaker 8: big ones we only see once every decade or two
Speaker 8: decades in the Middle East that really can change things
Speaker 8: and puts countries in existential threat. Israel is an existential threat,
Speaker 8: not just from the people civilians killed ten times proportionally
Speaker 8: what we lost from tera On nine to eleven. It
Speaker 8: was the overrunning of a whole forward Israeli armed division
Speaker 8: by five thousand roughly Hamas highly trained and prepared soldiers.
Speaker 8: That presents the threat to Israel. It can't deal permanently
Speaker 8: with that threat while also having threats on its northern
Speaker 8: border from his bullet and from Iran across the Gulf.
Speaker 8: So Israel has to go in and take out Hamas.
Speaker 8: That's the order it's given the military to dismantle Hamas.
Speaker 8: Very similar to the mission that when Tony Blincoln and
Speaker 8: Lloyd Austin were in the Obronment administration, they were given
Speaker 8: to take out the Islamic state, and in both cases
Speaker 8: that can really generate civilian casualties. And in the case
Speaker 8: of this conflict, is a risk that Lebani's who bullock
Speaker 8: out of Lebanon, could intervene Arran directly, which is one
Speaker 8: reason why President Biden is so strong and why you
Speaker 8: send two aircraft carriers to deter other countries from filing
Speaker 8: on as Israel is focused on Gaza.
Speaker 3: Well, what happens in the next couple of days here
Speaker 3: and to the extent that this ground invasion occurs, mister
Speaker 3: ambassador will tell us a lot I suspect about the
Speaker 3: potential for this to escalate. This is not going to
Speaker 3: be easy, realizing we have a very well trained military
Speaker 3: and a very capable one in Israel. I think to
Speaker 3: the Secretary's point, this is going to require a good
Speaker 3: deal of discipline. How concerned are you about the way
Speaker 3: Israel will conduct this invasion in an area that's teeming
Speaker 3: with civilians.
Speaker 8: Well, look, I have to be really blunt here, and
Speaker 8: countries are fighting existential battles, they will adhere to the
Speaker 8: law of WAW but that neither requires nor will they
Speaker 8: make it their top priority to spare civilians. That's the
Speaker 8: problem with the admonitions they've been getting from the Biden administration.
Speaker 8: If you're going to take, as Tony Blincoln said, every
Speaker 8: possible precaution to avoid attacking civilians or hurting civilians, you
Speaker 8: don't invade an area where civilians are being held by
Speaker 8: the tens of thousands as essentially human shields by Hamas.
Speaker 8: Hamas could a support the evacuation of people. It could
Speaker 8: place its troops and its installations not inside buildings that
Speaker 8: people are in, but it does. That's the problem for Israel.
Speaker 8: It's going to be trying to achieve a military victory quickly.
Speaker 8: It can't keep five percent of the population under arms
Speaker 8: indefinitely with minimum Israelly casualties while also minimizing the civilian losses,
Speaker 8: which is why the Israeli Minister of Defense told the
Speaker 8: citizens of Gaza to move south about ten miles across
Speaker 8: what we call the Wadi or Gaza River.
Speaker 3: How difficult of a job does Israel have here. This
Speaker 3: is obviously an entrenched enemy with a network of tunnels
Speaker 3: beneath Gaza. There are no uniforms that they'll be able
Speaker 3: to see when they move into the streets of Gaza.
Speaker 3: Mister ambassador, you think about this as a combination potentially
Speaker 3: of Stalingrad and Ewojima.
Speaker 4: With what they're facing, this is.
Speaker 8: Going to be very tough. I'm a farmer infantry officer.
Speaker 8: Attacking into a sea is difficult, even if you have
Speaker 8: overwhelming numerical superiority, which Israel does have, and even if
Speaker 8: you have air power, armor and other things that the
Speaker 8: other side does not have. It often comes down to
Speaker 8: soldier versus soldier, fighting your way from room to room,
Speaker 8: as we did in Fallujah in two thousand and four.
Speaker 2: In Iraq, we.
Speaker 8: Lost one hundred Marines army fighters killed and several hundred wounded.
Speaker 8: But Israel can do this. It is determined to do this.
Speaker 8: It is determined to take the high casual least. The
Speaker 8: problem is, as we saw in the attack last Saturday,
Speaker 8: Hamas has thousands of highly trained fighters who surprised the
Speaker 8: Israeli army and overran the front line Israeli positions. So
Speaker 8: Israel will have to be barely careful. But this is
Speaker 8: another reason why they're bombing to such an extraordinary degree,
Speaker 8: far more than they ever have done in Gaza as
Speaker 8: a preparatory step to sending their troops, and they want
Speaker 8: to discombobulate Hamas's defense is as much as possible. That
Speaker 8: we'll see when they do go in, and I'm sure
Speaker 8: they will, whether they're successful or not.
Speaker 3: Mister Ambassador Iran says that a new front is possible
Speaker 3: quote if israel war crimes continue unquote do you read
Speaker 3: into that? What do you expect to happen once this
Speaker 3: actual invasion gets underway and the images are on screens
Speaker 3: around the world, what is Iran's next move?
Speaker 8: Let me be cynical here. The images will infuriate in
Speaker 8: outrage Arab populations and countries like Saudi Arabia and the
Speaker 8: Gulf and Jordan that are friendly to America and basically Israel,
Speaker 8: as well as European publics. Iran is going to be
Speaker 8: delighted at these bitches, as will lebaneseis bullet the Iranian
Speaker 8: vassal state in southern Lebanon because they want Israel to
Speaker 8: get a bad reputation. The key question for Israel and
Speaker 8: for the United States is will they intervene militarily? I
Speaker 8: don't think so. First of all, the Israelis have now
Speaker 8: mobilized three hundred and sixty thousand troops. They're on the alert.
Speaker 8: They won't be prize. It'll make me much much harder
Speaker 8: to attack Israel. Secondly, and even more importantly, President Biden
Speaker 8: has committed the US, essentially in concrete terms, to come
Speaker 8: to Israel's defense if Hamas or Ran intervened. That's the
Speaker 8: purpose of the two aircraft carriers. That's the purpose of
Speaker 8: the air Force aircraft sent there. And he's justified in
Speaker 8: doing so. There are hundreds of thousands of American citizens
Speaker 8: in Israel right now, as we saw last Saturday. They
Speaker 8: are targets as well. So I think that that will
Speaker 8: deter a Rand in his bullet. I think that if
Speaker 8: it does deter them, and Israel succeeds, the Middle East
Speaker 8: will be in the long run and safer place. But
Speaker 8: those are many.
Speaker 3: Ifs huh, Well, that's fascinating. So you don't see a
Speaker 3: northern front opening, and in that world, the gerald Ford
Speaker 3: carrier group does not get involved. This ends up being
Speaker 3: contained to Gaza City. However, many days or weeks it
Speaker 3: takes for this mission to be done and we're over.
Speaker 3: Is that is that your best case scenario?
Speaker 1: Sure?
Speaker 8: Under no circumstances did the United States intend to have
Speaker 8: our military forces engage in the Gaza Fad. It was
Speaker 8: rather to allow the Israelis to concentrate their forces in
Speaker 8: the south. Was to help the Israelis by containing his
Speaker 8: Bullah in Lebanon, Iran and Iranian militias in Syria. There
Speaker 8: are several fronts Israel has to watch. I think that
Speaker 8: is working, and to say that the carrier battle group
Speaker 8: won't get involved because it will deter combat. Frankly, that's
Speaker 8: one of the best uses of our military force is
Speaker 8: not to fight. Yeah, stop fight happening. I think this
Speaker 8: is going to work, but I've been wrong before.
Speaker 3: Well, how about the diplomatic component here. This is where
Speaker 3: your experience comes into play as well, mister ambassador. The
Speaker 3: Secretary of State is on his way to Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 3: This potential partnership, this new deal with Israel be salvaged.
Speaker 8: It is frozen. It can be salvaged under several circumstances.
Speaker 8: One is the humanitarian losses are not too great. A
Speaker 8: lot of that depends on how much time Israel gives
Speaker 8: the population to move south of the Wadi Gaza. It
Speaker 8: is physically capable of doing it, it's ten miles and secondly,
Speaker 8: whether Hamas allows them to do so. If most of
Speaker 8: the population can get out of the way, you're still
Speaker 8: going to have possibilian casualties, just as we have in
Speaker 8: the fight against the Islamic State, but they will be
Speaker 8: kept under control. The Saudis will appreciate that, other Arab
Speaker 8: states will But importantly, if Hamas is destroyed, believe me,
Speaker 8: the Saudis will be happy. These are the Saudi enemies.
Speaker 8: The Gulf States will be happy as well. And if
Speaker 8: the United States has shown that it stands by its patner,
Speaker 8: be it Israel today is Saudi Arabia tomorrow. Believe me,
Speaker 8: that is extremely valuable currency in the insecure and unstable
Speaker 8: Middle East we have today.
Speaker 3: This will not end up with a treaty being signed
Speaker 3: on the deck of an aircraft carrier. As they say,
Speaker 3: mister ambassador, how will we know that this is done
Speaker 3: with regard to Hamas.
Speaker 8: That is a difficult question always to answer, unless it
Speaker 8: is something like the signing of a peace treaty or
Speaker 8: the end of the Kuwait War in nineteen ninety one,
Speaker 8: where they sat down on the table. We have not
Speaker 8: formally ended our battle against the Islamic State in Iraq
Speaker 8: and Syria. We still have troops in both countries, we
Speaker 8: still do operations against them, but what we know is
Speaker 8: that they no longer occupy territory, They no longer control
Speaker 8: nine million people. They no longer can fiel thirty thousand troops.
Speaker 8: They can't lawn terrible attacks to Paris, to Berlin, to
Speaker 8: con to Brussels. That's the kind of victory on the
Speaker 8: ground that you can sense. But even then, in these
Speaker 8: launch day it's a good example. You have to be present,
Speaker 8: you have to be weary, you have to keep on
Speaker 8: hitting them even when they have been all broken up.
Speaker 3: Sounds like this is going to be a long term
Speaker 3: story and something we'd like to stay in touch with
Speaker 3: you on Former Ambassador James Jeffries now at the Wilson Center.
Speaker 4: Thanks for the insights. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 3: Thirty fascinating conversation on the situation in Israel with the
Speaker 3: former Ambassador James Jeffries.
Speaker 4: Thanks for joining us. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.
Speaker 3: You're on Bloomberg Sound On with the word from Israel
Speaker 3: that it is time to evacuate. That includes the United
Speaker 3: Nations now from northern Gaza, and we're seeing an exodus.
Speaker 3: It's just a question of how many people can get
Speaker 3: out before a ground invasion begins, and we're told that
Speaker 3: could be anytime from tonight into tomorrow, but it should
Speaker 3: be an important weekend in the trajectory of this conflict.
Speaker 3: As we assemble our panel today, glad to say in
Speaker 3: studio with me in Washington, d C is Mark Short,
Speaker 3: the former Director of White House Legislative Affairs, former chief
Speaker 3: of staff to Vice President Mike Pence.
Speaker 4: It's great to see you, Mark, thanks for joining, Thanks
Speaker 4: for having me on on set.
Speaker 3: Here in New York, we have Bloomberg Politics contributor to
Speaker 3: Democratic analyst Genie Shanzino. You made it to Friday, Jeanie.
Speaker 3: It's great to see you and thanks for all the
Speaker 3: insights this week. And we are far from being done here.
Speaker 3: As we pick up the conversation from Ambassador Jeffries. We've
Speaker 3: heard from Anthony Blincoln today, Mark, We've heard from Lloyd Austin.
Speaker 3: Both asked directly in news conferences about protections for civilians
Speaker 3: in Gaza City and the ability to get people out,
Speaker 3: notch just hostages, but any civilians as they seek some
Speaker 3: sort of humanitarian court or here. How concerned are you
Speaker 3: about some very challenging optics in the next two days.
Speaker 9: Yeah, Joe, I think it's going to be more than
Speaker 9: the next two days. I think that this is probably
Speaker 9: going to be a war that's prosecuted for a few weeks.
Speaker 9: And I think that a question here domestically. I think
Speaker 9: you can commend the Biden administration for the way they've
Speaker 9: stood by our cherished ally, but as that prosecution continues
Speaker 9: on for weeks and their voices within the squad, they've
Speaker 9: become louder. How does the Democrats party stay united behind
Speaker 9: Israel or not? But I think this is not gonna
Speaker 9: be a matter of two days. I think it's a
Speaker 9: matter of a couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: Sure that won't make it any easier as we go,
Speaker 3: I'm sure, so speak to me about that period of time.
Speaker 3: I mean, we're talking about war fatigue in Ukraine almost
Speaker 3: two years into that conflict. How much time and how
Speaker 3: much understanding well, Benjaminette, yeah have here in the US
Speaker 3: as he conducts this war.
Speaker 9: Well, I think he's going to have a lot of support, frankly,
Speaker 9: and I think he deserves that support. But I think
Speaker 9: it's as it continues on and images come out of
Speaker 9: the devastation that happens, will that support continue to be
Speaker 9: with him? And I think there's also question is this
Speaker 9: limited to the Gossa shrip. There's no doubt that Iran
Speaker 9: has been funding Hamas and has been providing the resources
Speaker 9: for Hamas's terror attack against Israel, And so will they
Speaker 9: limit this there or will there be also attacks upon
Speaker 9: Iranian assets? I think is a question that is unanswered at.
Speaker 4: This point, Genie.
Speaker 3: Ambassador Jeffries was quite sobering when he talked about this,
Speaker 3: making it clear that protecting civilians is not the priority
Speaker 3: here for Israel as it wages a war to eliminate Hamas.
Speaker 4: How worried are you about what we're about to see?
Speaker 10: Extremely worried? You know, there are just no good options here,
Speaker 10: and you know the Ambassador made a really important point
Speaker 10: that I you know, hope everyone reflects on, which is that,
Speaker 10: you know, we really don't want Israel and the United
Speaker 10: States to fall into any trap set by Iran, set
Speaker 10: by Hamas, set by Hesbolah. And what do they want
Speaker 10: to do. They want Israel to get into a quagmire
Speaker 10: once again in the Gaza strip. And that is a
Speaker 10: fear because we've seen this show already and we've seen
Speaker 10: how it ends. And to your point, if they do
Speaker 10: do that, of course, the number of casualties, the pictures
Speaker 10: coming out, that is exactly what Hamas is banking on.
Speaker 10: And you know, amongst everything else that happened in the
Speaker 10: last week or so, one thing we should note is
Speaker 10: that they had a very sophisticated social media campaign coming
Speaker 10: out of Hamas from the time this terrorist attack started
Speaker 10: and it continues today. That is not going to let up.
Speaker 10: That is going to intensify. And so you know, when
Speaker 10: your enemy wants something, don't give it to them. And
Speaker 10: I think we have to hope there's a way, and
Speaker 10: it's no easy way. Israel can figure out how to
Speaker 10: ensure that they don't do what the enemy wants them
Speaker 10: to do. And I think that's a concern for all
Speaker 10: of us. As we watch this.
Speaker 3: On fold, listen to Yova Galant who appeared earlier today.
Speaker 3: This is the Israeli Defense Minister appeared in a news
Speaker 3: conference with Lloyd Austin, our Secretary of Defense is in
Speaker 3: Tel Aviv today when he was asked about the connection
Speaker 3: between Iran and Hamas. The official word from the US
Speaker 3: is there's no hard evidence to show that they helped
Speaker 3: to plan or encourage this attack. Lloyd Austin reiterated that
Speaker 3: today his counterpart in Israel sees it differently.
Speaker 5: Listen, Iran, Chrisbala and Hamas is one oxis, an oxis
Speaker 5: of evil. Everything is directed generally from Iran. The permission
Speaker 5: is given by Iran, the money is supplied by Iran,
Speaker 5: and the ideas are shaped in Iran. Therefore, it doesn't
Speaker 5: matter if they give or didn't give a permission.
Speaker 3: Marked The Administration is being heavily criticized for its posture
Speaker 3: with Iran. We've had any number of Republican lawmakers. Just
Speaker 3: last evening, Bill Haggerty was really admonishing the administration. For instance,
Speaker 3: the six billion dollars that was part of the prisoner
Speaker 3: swap recently that has apparently been refrozen or wasn't something.
Speaker 3: It's kind of hard to understand the actual status of
Speaker 3: what's happening in that bank account. But I wonder if
Speaker 3: you see this White House as.
Speaker 4: Needing to say more.
Speaker 3: You've got the Secretary of Defense delivering a very different
Speaker 3: message than the Israeli Defense minister on this.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 9: As I said, I think the administration has stood by
Speaker 9: Israel after the attack. But having said that, I do
Speaker 9: think that there was an appeasement effort that in bolden
Speaker 9: Iran to fund Hamas and gave Hamas a sense that
Speaker 9: they could they could take this attack at this time,
Speaker 9: whether or not it's the six billion dollars in assets
Speaker 9: they're one frozen, whether or not it's the constant begging
Speaker 9: for Iran to come back to the table to sign
Speaker 9: a new Iran nuclear deal, whether or not it's it's
Speaker 9: turning the cheek when I Ran has been providing drones
Speaker 9: to Ukraine. This administration has continued to offer a sense
Speaker 9: of appeasement, and when you look at the disastrous withdraw
Speaker 9: in Afghanistan, it definitely emboldens our enemies.
Speaker 4: And I don't think saying down about.
Speaker 3: That, Ginnie, I know you don't agree with that, but
Speaker 3: what could this White House have done differently to not
Speaker 3: help create the narrative that Mark is telling.
Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, I do think there is a narrative
Speaker 10: surrounding the six billion dollars, and we likely see the
Speaker 10: Senate pursued that, as you talked about when they come
Speaker 10: back to town next week. I don't know that we
Speaker 10: should be as concerned right now about the narratives. I
Speaker 10: do think when this goes forward and we have some
Speaker 10: distance from it, there is going to be a lot of,
Speaker 10: you know, second guessing what happened, and I think much
Speaker 10: of that is going to fall on the government of
Speaker 10: Benjamin and Yahoo, not necessarily the United States, and not
Speaker 10: necessarily Joe Biden. So yes, we should think about the
Speaker 10: six billion. I don't necessarily have a problem with refreezing that.
Speaker 10: But this idea of a blame game seems to me
Speaker 10: to be all about politics at this point. And you know,
Speaker 10: Mark mentioned early on, you know what we're hearing, which
Speaker 10: is that a concern about what the squad and those
Speaker 10: people say. There's also a concern about what Donald Trump
Speaker 10: is out there saying. He's out there calling Hesbelah smart,
Speaker 10: He's out there attacking Benjamin net and Yahoo just hours
Speaker 10: after a horrendous terrorist attack on his nation. So I
Speaker 10: think the idea that we politicize any of this is
Speaker 10: not for the moment. And so, yes, the White House
Speaker 10: may need to rethink it's approach to Iran. Agree with that.
Speaker 10: I'm not opposed to that, But I do think that
Speaker 10: the blame, if there is any blame to go along,
Speaker 10: it's going to fall squarely obviously on Hummus. It's going
Speaker 10: to fall on hes Blush did they get involved in
Speaker 10: will fall in Iran for any of that. But Benjamin Etna,
Speaker 10: whose government is going to have to think about what
Speaker 10: they did to those reservists to divide the military over there,
Speaker 10: That's where the blame is going to have to fall.
Speaker 10: And the Israeli people, when it is time, they will
Speaker 10: be able to go to the ballot box and hold
Speaker 10: whoever they think is responsible in their own government responsible,
Speaker 10: and Americans can do the same thing.
Speaker 4: I won't give you a chance to respond to that.
Speaker 6: Well.
Speaker 9: And look, I agree, I think that Donald Trump's comments
Speaker 9: were inexplicable. It was inexplicable. I mean, it's like at
Speaker 9: the time when our most cherished allies under attack, it's
Speaker 9: the it's the worst time in the world to be
Speaker 9: providing a cover for our enemies or criticizing Benjamin.
Speaker 4: Speaking for himself or some wing.
Speaker 9: I think it's I think it's really candidly. I think
Speaker 9: it's more personal and selfish. That relates to the fact
Speaker 9: that Mena who called Biden after the election. There, that's
Speaker 9: what it is.
Speaker 4: Okay, this is awfully predictable.
Speaker 3: Sometimes great to have Mark Short with us here in
Speaker 3: Washington and Genie Schanzano in New York.
Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one.
Speaker 2: Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the
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Speaker 2: get your podcasts.
Speaker 3: It's back to square one in the race for Speaker,
Speaker 3: as Steve Scalise withdraws his name from nomination, Jim Jordan
Speaker 3: jumps back in, and the Republican race for the speaker
Speaker 3: becomes a battle now between Jordan and an impeachment skeptic
Speaker 3: who We're going to talk ahead with a member of
Speaker 3: the conference who's been in meetings private meetings throughout the
Speaker 3: day to day Congressman Ben Klein, the Republican from Virginia,
Speaker 3: as we try to figure out the way forward here
Speaker 3: ahead of this weekend that could also include a ground
Speaker 3: invasion in Gaza. The other story that we're following closely
Speaker 3: here painting out of two buckets again today in Washington.
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions, just back from Capitol Hill.
Speaker 3: It's another busy day up there, Kayley, with only one
Speaker 3: story to talk about, because we can't do anything until
Speaker 3: we get a speaker.
Speaker 11: Yeah, and we'll see if they can get any step closer.
Speaker 11: They're back in conference after earlier today. Once again, that
Speaker 11: rule that would have made changes, made it so that
Speaker 11: two hundred and seventeen votes had to be secured before
Speaker 11: anyone could be the speaker nominee didn't pass. That was
Speaker 11: tabled again. So what we're looking for now is a majority,
Speaker 11: and we'll see whether Jim Jordan or Austin Scott can
Speaker 11: ultimately get it. But then, as we know, they're going
Speaker 11: to face the same challenge Steve Scaliese did in trying
Speaker 11: to secure the requisite.
Speaker 3: Votes absolutely two seventeen and you know sometimes it's the
Speaker 3: simple questions. As you asked Austin Scott, do you actually
Speaker 3: want this?
Speaker 4: Here's what he said.
Speaker 8: I don't necessarily want to be the figure that I
Speaker 8: want the House to punch him correctly.
Speaker 10: The House not punching correctly.
Speaker 3: Right now, let's bring in Congressman Ben Klein, the Republican
Speaker 3: from Virginia six Congressional District, is back with us on
Speaker 3: the phone here, having just emerged from that conference meeting
Speaker 3: that we've been talking about. Congressman, are you publicly backing
Speaker 3: a candidate at this stage?
Speaker 12: I am Joe and Kaylie good to talk to you.
Speaker 12: I'm supportive of Chairman Jordan. I'm on the Judiciary Committee
Speaker 12: and he's been a great chairman, great leader, and he
Speaker 12: would make a great speaker.
Speaker 11: Okay, Congressman, do you think he's getting there with everybody else,
Speaker 11: what's going on inside the room at the moment. Does
Speaker 11: he seem like he's going to have the requisite support?
Speaker 12: So we had a conference meeting this morning, where as
Speaker 12: you said, we dealt with various rules amendments to decide
Speaker 12: whether we were going to raise the threshold to move
Speaker 12: to the floor to two hundred and seventeen or two
Speaker 12: hundred and eighteen and those were withdrawn by general consensus.
Speaker 12: There's general consensus that we need to try and operate
Speaker 12: as a team. We need to focus on unifying as
Speaker 12: a conference, working together, and so we're going to see
Speaker 12: who comes out with the majority. My hope is that
Speaker 12: it's Chairman Jordan, and then that we may have a
Speaker 12: second vote just to see how much support he has
Speaker 12: going to the floor, whether there are some outliers who
Speaker 12: may want to protest because they don't like the way
Speaker 12: in which vacancy was created, and that's unfortunate, but we
Speaker 12: have to put the pass behind us.
Speaker 6: We have to move forward.
Speaker 12: We have to look at moving ahead with a conservative
Speaker 12: agenda for the country, and that's why I'm hopeful that
Speaker 12: Jim Jordan will get the requisite number of votes.
Speaker 4: To move forward Congress.
Speaker 3: But how important is it that this gets done this weekend.
Speaker 3: We were talking with Mark Short a moment ago, and
Speaker 3: he seemed to think the next two days are imperative
Speaker 3: to set up an actual successful vote for next week.
Speaker 4: Is that how you see it?
Speaker 12: Well, I think as soon as we can get consensus,
Speaker 12: we need to move to the floor. We don't need
Speaker 12: to go home for the weekend. We don't need to
Speaker 12: take a break. The members know how they feel about
Speaker 12: Jim Jordan. He's been a member for many years and
Speaker 12: that he's been a great leader. He has worked with
Speaker 12: Speaker McCarthy, former Speaker McCarthy who is supporting Jim Jordan,
Speaker 12: and Majority Leader Scalise, and so I think there is
Speaker 12: general consensus that he would be the best candidates. Just
Speaker 12: question of whether we can get to eighteen and when
Speaker 12: we do, we need to move pretty quickly to the
Speaker 12: floor because there are a lot of pressing issues that
Speaker 12: we need to address well.
Speaker 11: And on the idea of moving quickly to the floor,
Speaker 11: I understand there's some attendance issues within the conference right now,
Speaker 11: a number of members who are missing, and a lot
Speaker 11: of Democrats that aren't currently able to be in DC
Speaker 11: at least eminently as well, should there be some patients.
Speaker 12: Here, well, sure, we want to make it possible for
Speaker 12: everybody to get back, but we caution members not to
Speaker 12: go home. We caution that there can be votes at
Speaker 12: any time, and if members decide that they need to
Speaker 12: up and go home, it's on them to get back
Speaker 12: soon enough to make the vote. We're not going to
Speaker 12: sit around conference and wait for two hundred and seventeen
Speaker 12: Republicans to show up. But at that same time, we
Speaker 12: want there to be a general idea of who is
Speaker 12: going to vote for our nominee and who isn't, And
Speaker 12: simply avoiding the meetings and avoiding voting in the conference
Speaker 12: is not the appropriate way to move forward. We need
Speaker 12: to all be here, We need to talk it out,
Speaker 12: and we can't just sit in our office and pout.
Speaker 3: Congressman, if you could bring us inside the room for
Speaker 3: a moment. I know you're not supposed to tell us
Speaker 3: a lot of what's said in there, and we do
Speaker 3: appreciate the fact that you've given us some time on
Speaker 3: the phone in the middle of this whole process. But
Speaker 3: what's the tenor like we hear about the five families
Speaker 3: and the Republican conference or people arguing, do you have
Speaker 3: individuals speaking to the entire room or you're broken up
Speaker 3: into groups?
Speaker 4: How's this working?
Speaker 12: Well, there's We're in the largest committee room in the House,
Speaker 12: the Ways and Means Committee, and there's a table up
Speaker 12: front with two members sitting there, mister Scott and mister Jordan,
Speaker 12: and a conference chair elist Dephonic is moderating and the
Speaker 12: members are standing before two mics, just in line, and
Speaker 12: there's no Republican you know, mike for one side for
Speaker 12: one caucus and one for another. It's just a Republican
Speaker 12: conservative monitor, conservative moderate lining up and asking questions and
Speaker 12: each member gets to answer. And we're asking about everything
Speaker 12: from policy issues to you know, the way in which
Speaker 12: the vacancy was created, how the members feel about that,
Speaker 12: how members are needing to come together to unify, and
Speaker 12: the divisions that have really riven the conference. And we
Speaker 12: need to address those, and we need to be upfront
Speaker 12: about it and not just dance around. And that's what
Speaker 12: we're doing. We're confronting each other. All the phones have
Speaker 12: been taken outside and putting cubbies, so no phones are
Speaker 12: in there. We're being honest with each other and that's
Speaker 12: a great way to handle our differences.
Speaker 11: Yeah, and I'm sure you're going to hang up the
Speaker 11: phone with us and put it right back in the cubby, Congressman.
Speaker 12: Before you head back. Get there.
Speaker 11: As they are answering these questions, are there promises being made?
Speaker 12: Not to my knowledge, members have been asked as Steve
Speaker 12: Scalise and Jim Jordan were asked if they had promised anything,
Speaker 12: and both said no, And so Austin Scott I haven't
Speaker 12: heard him get asked that question. But we prefer to
Speaker 12: just go up or down based on who we think
Speaker 12: the best leader will be for the conference and for
Speaker 12: the nation.
Speaker 3: We've been hearing from Liz Cheney, Congressman about Jim Jordan.
Speaker 3: We just talked to Mark Short about this a moment
Speaker 3: ago here in studio. She tweeted today that Jim Jordan
Speaker 3: was involved in Trump's conspiracy to steal the election and
Speaker 3: seize power. He urged that Pence refused to count lawful
Speaker 3: electoral votes. If he becomes speaker, they will Republicans will
Speaker 3: be abandoning the Constitution.
Speaker 4: What do you say in response to that?
Speaker 12: We're the defenders of the constitution. We are the only
Speaker 12: branch or half of a branch of government that is
Speaker 12: standing firm for the Constitution, and we need to get
Speaker 12: a speaker elected so that the House can continue to
Speaker 12: stand strong for the Constitution. I'm disappointed in that kind
Speaker 12: of attack on a member of Congress. I've served with
Speaker 12: Liz Cheney. She didn't win her re election, and that's
Speaker 12: you know, she's able to have her point of view,
Speaker 12: but that's not the view inside the conference, and that's
Speaker 12: not the view really for the country. The country's elected
Speaker 12: the Republican majority, and this Republican majority is going to
Speaker 12: represent the majority of Americans with Thomason Conservative policies moving forward.
Speaker 3: So the allegations around Jim Jordan in January sixth were
Speaker 3: not brought up in the Republican Conference meeting.
Speaker 12: Not to my knowledge. I've been in and out. I'm
Speaker 12: out right now, but not.
Speaker 10: To my knowledge.
Speaker 11: Yeah, Congressman, can you just give us a sense of
Speaker 11: while you're in the room there if there is a
Speaker 11: feeling that this is going to be wrapped up quickly
Speaker 11: or is there more discussion happening about potentially extending expanding
Speaker 11: the powers of Patrick McHenry and his pro tem position.
Speaker 12: No, there are very few members who would support expanding
Speaker 12: the powers of a temporary speaker. That the office of
Speaker 12: temporary Speaker was only created after nine to eleven former
Speaker 12: Speaker McCarthy was able to put a list of members
Speaker 12: in an envelope that was not to be opened until
Speaker 12: he vacated the office. And when he did, it was
Speaker 12: Patrick McHenry at top. He's a very capable chairman of
Speaker 12: the Banking Committee, and he is doing a great job.
Speaker 12: But his only job is to move forward with electing
Speaker 12: a new Speaker, and we're doing that right now. We
Speaker 12: anticipate that after this exchange of views occurs, we're going
Speaker 12: to have moved to a vote, and so hopefully we'll
Speaker 12: have it result today. That's our goal. And knock on
Speaker 12: wood as I say that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, sure's the what's the feeling from some of those
Speaker 3: in the Freedom Caucus and outside of the Freedom Caucus
Speaker 3: who voted to als Kevin McCarthy. We heard Matt Gates
Speaker 3: say the other day long lived Speaker Scalise, he told
Speaker 3: us he'd vote for either Scalise or Jordan. Is the
Speaker 3: temperature coming down at all among that group? It's kind
Speaker 3: of been like a game of Whack a mole Congressman.
Speaker 4: Each day. It's a different list of names who are
Speaker 4: opposed to something.
Speaker 12: It is tough when you have a very slim majority.
Speaker 12: You've got an outsized influenced by a limited number. And
Speaker 12: what we have to make sure of is that all
Speaker 12: concerns are addressed and that everybody gets there. Say now,
Speaker 12: former Speaker McCarthy is being the leader that we know
Speaker 12: him to be. By standing up and saying we need
Speaker 12: to get behind Jim Jordan, and that says a lot.
Speaker 12: Their relationship has not always been harmonious at times. They've
Speaker 12: both been on the hill a long time, so for
Speaker 12: them to come together at this point in time shows
Speaker 12: the gravity of the moment and the needs to elect
Speaker 12: a leader who's going to move us ahead quickly.
Speaker 11: Congressman, you just referenced there the fact that the Republican
Speaker 11: Party is working with a very slim majority here, and
Speaker 11: there has been growing murmurs in the last twenty four
Speaker 11: hours about because of that, and because of what right
Speaker 11: now seems like an inability of the conference to coalesce
Speaker 11: around one candidate with two hundred and seventeen votes, that
Speaker 11: maybe there is work to be done with Democrats here.
Speaker 12: What do you say to that, Well, I said, that's
Speaker 12: very unlikely. I mean, Republicans recognize that we lead best
Speaker 12: when we lead with Republicans, and so we hope to
Speaker 12: have a Republican speaker. We don't think that the agenda
Speaker 12: of the previous speaker before Kevin McCarthy, Nancy Pelosi, is
Speaker 12: the one we need to return to.
Speaker 5: It.
Speaker 12: Jacked up inflation rates, the excess spending has done a
Speaker 12: number on the budgets of hardworking families when it comes
Speaker 12: to the pump or at the grocery store, and we
Speaker 12: don't want to go back to that. We also want
Speaker 12: to stand up to this administration. This administration has been
Speaker 12: flouting the Constitution and we need to hold them accountable.
Speaker 6: And so.
Speaker 12: Majority Republican House is going to be able to continue
Speaker 12: to do that.
Speaker 3: Corverson, You've been very generous with your time here, and
Speaker 3: we really do appreciate it. Has there been an effort
Speaker 3: inside the conference meeting to try to get ahead of
Speaker 3: that and send a message maybe to some moderate Republicans
Speaker 3: from a state like New York who might be considering
Speaker 3: voting for a Hakeim jeffreyes.
Speaker 12: Well, I haven't spoken to a single New York Republican
Speaker 12: who's interested in voting for Rarekiing Jeffries most. In fact,
Speaker 12: some of the New York Republicans I've talked to have
Speaker 12: worked with Hakim Jeffries in the New York Assembly and
Speaker 12: know him to be a partisan who does not reach
Speaker 12: across the aisle, and that his rhetoric right now is
Speaker 12: really little more than an effort to interfere, and so
Speaker 12: chaos in the House majority. So we're going to continue
Speaker 12: to work to elect a Republican majority. We're not going
Speaker 12: to fall take debate that Hakim Jeffries is trying to
Speaker 12: lure members in with his talk of bipartisanship for the
Speaker 12: first time that I've heard, and will continue to lead
Speaker 12: as a Republican majority that elected Republican speaker, and hopefully
Speaker 12: that'll happen later today.
Speaker 11: Well, Congressman, your former Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy did work
Speaker 11: with Hakim Jeffries on some bipartisan initiatives, including the cr
Speaker 11: that ultimately led to his ouster the debt limit deal
Speaker 11: from earlier this year as well. Would you not want
Speaker 11: a future Speaker Jordan or whomever to work work with
Speaker 11: Democrats in the same way.
Speaker 12: Well, we absolutely do, but we won't betray our principles
Speaker 12: on the altar of bipartisanship. What we have to do
Speaker 12: is continue to lead in a conservative way. The American
Speaker 12: people think that the federal government is too big, too bloated,
Speaker 12: and does too much interferes in our lives and in
Speaker 12: our freedoms and our liberties too much, and so they're
Speaker 12: looking for a House that's going to take the lead
Speaker 12: in rolling back some of the successes spending, getting a
Speaker 12: woken weaponized government out of the budget, and we need
Speaker 12: to finish. We're only halfway through our appropriations bills in
Speaker 12: the House. I'm on the Appropriations Committee. We're desperate to
Speaker 12: get back to work. The Senate hasn't passed a single
Speaker 12: appropriations bill. They're going to try and jam us later
Speaker 12: this year with omnibus, and we just can't allow that
Speaker 12: to happen. So we need to get back to work.
Speaker 12: The election of a speaker later today will help to
Speaker 12: make that happen.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 3: Congressman, if there's an alter of bipartisanship, I want you
Speaker 3: to tell me where that is, because I'm going there.
Speaker 4: Just to pick up on what you just said. Though
Speaker 4: you expect to vote today.
Speaker 12: Yes, we will have a vote today. They're concluding the
Speaker 12: interviews right now of the candidates, and once that happens,
Speaker 12: we anticipate there to be a nomination in a vote,
Speaker 12: and we'll just see how the vote goes, and hopefully
Speaker 12: we'll have near to eighteen. I don't know that we're
Speaker 12: going to demand complete unanimity to go to the floor,
Speaker 12: but if we're close, then you may see an effort
Speaker 12: to move to the floor expeditiously.
Speaker 11: Do you think, unlike Steve Scalice, Congressman, that Jim Jordan
Speaker 11: would be willing to put this on the floor immediately
Speaker 11: or is he going to try to whit more votes first?
Speaker 12: Well, I think you want to make sure that everybody's united,
Speaker 12: and so if there are holdout then there will be
Speaker 12: no doubt there are still people who are frustrated with
Speaker 12: the way that the office was vacated and that the
Speaker 12: way that it's gone over the past two weeks. But
Speaker 12: I do think that those can be resolved. Those differences
Speaker 12: can be resolved, and I think given time, Jim Jordan
Speaker 12: can work it out. Is it going to be three votes,
Speaker 12: four votes or the thirty votes that he's going to
Speaker 12: have to move to unify and that's going to dictate
Speaker 12: how much time we're going to need to move to
Speaker 12: the floor.
Speaker 3: Wow, Congressman, thank you for stopping down for us. I
Speaker 3: hope we didn't get you in trouble with anyone on
Speaker 3: the staff here to take Congressman Benklin, the Republican from
Speaker 3: Virginia ducking out of the Republican Conference meeting in the House.
Speaker 4: We'd love to stay in touch with you, sir. Thanks
Speaker 4: for listening to the Sound On podcast.
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