1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:05,840
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachera

2
00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:13,680
Speaker 1: j J Zacheron. Hey guys, No, this is not your

3
00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,440
Speaker 1: typical late round podcast. Every once in a while during

4
00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:18,799
Speaker 1: the offseason, I'll bring back an evergreen episode from the

5
00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:22,200
Speaker 1: past that's still relevant. Today, I'm doing that here because

6
00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:24,880
Speaker 1: it's a holiday weekend, it's May, and there's a lot

7
00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,240
Speaker 1: of stuff going on behind the scenes that I need

8
00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,280
Speaker 1: to put some energy into. More on that coming very

9
00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:33,599
Speaker 1: very soon, But today I'm gonna throw some research at

10
00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:35,600
Speaker 1: you that I did last year on middle round running

11
00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:39,199
Speaker 1: backs in their past catching ability, specifically spotting middle round

12
00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:41,960
Speaker 1: running back value by simply looking at previous season yards

13
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:45,520
Speaker 1: per route run. You'll hear the study on today's rewind episode,

14
00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,080
Speaker 1: and you'll also hear some names from last year who

15
00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:51,320
Speaker 1: fit the criteria of being red flags within that statistic.

16
00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,320
Speaker 1: Not all of them completely flamed out, like Ramandre Stevenson,

17
00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:57,240
Speaker 1: who had a resurgence at the end of the season

18
00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,640
Speaker 1: after kind of a mediocre start, But there were a

19
00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,000
Speaker 1: lot of hits with this method, Chuba Hubbard, Jordan Mason,

20
00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,920
Speaker 1: Tony Polldard Tyrone Tracy. They all weren't that special in

21
00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,000
Speaker 1: my opinion, it's a really interesting way to look at

22
00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:11,720
Speaker 1: these middle round running backs, and since I know I'm

23
00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,440
Speaker 1: gonna get questions about it, I'll talk very briefly about

24
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:16,760
Speaker 1: running backs who fit this criteria at the end of

25
00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,640
Speaker 1: the show, but first give the episode a new way

26
00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,759
Speaker 1: to spot middle round running back breakouts a quick listen.

27
00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:28,800
Speaker 2: I've always been fascinated with average.

28
00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,399
Speaker 1: Draft position data, like we can always do analysis and

29
00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:33,919
Speaker 1: see the types of traits that certain league winning wide

30
00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:36,160
Speaker 1: receivers or running back share and sort of do our

31
00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:39,520
Speaker 1: analysis from there. Like if we know league winning running

32
00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,600
Speaker 1: backs always come from good offenses, then we should probably

33
00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,480
Speaker 1: focus on running backs and good offenses. If we knew

34
00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,480
Speaker 1: that league winning wide receivers never had a teammate draft

35
00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,480
Speaker 1: in the top twenty fourth position, then we'd probably focus

36
00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:53,760
Speaker 1: on why outs who had a lot of projected target

37
00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:54,720
Speaker 1: share for themselves.

38
00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,600
Speaker 2: That kind of stuff. But not all of that is

39
00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:58,560
Speaker 2: always actionable.

40
00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:00,640
Speaker 1: If the market is factor, bring in a lot of

41
00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:02,880
Speaker 1: the discoveries that we make from that type of analysis.

42
00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:05,600
Speaker 1: It's not bad to have that information in mind, but

43
00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:08,480
Speaker 1: it's not as useful as we think because a player's

44
00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,560
Speaker 1: cost will already reflect all of those things. Like if

45
00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:14,680
Speaker 1: we went to a farmer's market. You might find a

46
00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,040
Speaker 1: fruit vendor that does a ton of business each week.

47
00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:21,079
Speaker 1: They've got really good fruit objectively, but it also costs

48
00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,679
Speaker 1: a lot to get that fruit, so the cost benefit

49
00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,880
Speaker 1: actually might not be there. Wouldn't you want to find

50
00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,520
Speaker 1: the smaller fruit vendor who has better prices and may

51
00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,119
Speaker 1: be able to offer up similar tasting fruit. That's why

52
00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,800
Speaker 1: I look so much through the lens of ADP, because

53
00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,799
Speaker 1: it's one way to ensure that we're finding value throughout

54
00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:42,040
Speaker 1: our draft now through the years. Something that's always been

55
00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,360
Speaker 1: obvious when doing my ADP analysis is that pass catching

56
00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,520
Speaker 1: running backs will outperform expectation at a severely higher rate

57
00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,160
Speaker 1: than the alternative. Like somehow the market still doesn't factor

58
00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,320
Speaker 1: in pass catching enough at running back. But it's one

59
00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,040
Speaker 1: thing to say, hey, draft running backs who catch passes.

60
00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,480
Speaker 1: It's another actually tell you what to look for when

61
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,880
Speaker 1: you're doing that. And I realized that mistake when writing

62
00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,160
Speaker 1: this year's late Round Draft guide, which by the way,

63
00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:09,480
Speaker 1: the guide will be out in July.

64
00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,360
Speaker 2: First make sure you're pre ordering right now. But I'm

65
00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:12,880
Speaker 2: bringing up the.

66
00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,040
Speaker 1: Draft guide because a big focus of that guide for

67
00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,720
Speaker 1: me this year has centered around making things even more

68
00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,160
Speaker 1: actionable for the reader, Like I can say, hey, running

69
00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:24,000
Speaker 1: backs who are league winners, they usually look like X

70
00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,200
Speaker 1: when that X is some piece of information that we

71
00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,880
Speaker 1: learn after the season. Going back to the quick example

72
00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,839
Speaker 1: I shared earlier, running backs are league winners when they're

73
00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,320
Speaker 1: in offenses that scored three or more touchdowns per game. Okay,

74
00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,680
Speaker 1: let's say that's true. Let's say that's factual. Now tell

75
00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,800
Speaker 1: me which offenses will score three or more touchdowns per game.

76
00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:47,720
Speaker 1: When it comes to receiving work, tell me which running

77
00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:49,880
Speaker 1: backs are gonna catch a lot of passes this year.

78
00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:52,640
Speaker 1: Now we can have a general idea of who will

79
00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,240
Speaker 1: and who won't catch passes.

80
00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,960
Speaker 2: Rashad Way, remember his second year in the league.

81
00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,840
Speaker 1: That was a big draft guide hit that year, largely

82
00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,960
Speaker 1: because his receiving upside was there. We knew that he

83
00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,160
Speaker 1: had a shot to play that kind of pass catching role,

84
00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,120
Speaker 1: and we knew that he had a collegiate profile that

85
00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:12,600
Speaker 1: really dictated that, but it was still a more subjective take. Now,

86
00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,760
Speaker 1: rather than looking at that through some semi subjective lens,

87
00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,680
Speaker 1: I took things a step further this year to show

88
00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,640
Speaker 1: you that one metric might be more predicted versus the

89
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,640
Speaker 1: market than you probably think at running back, and that

90
00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,760
Speaker 1: metric is yards per route run. We've been working with

91
00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,159
Speaker 1: yards per route run a wide receiver for years now,

92
00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,280
Speaker 1: and while myself another analysts will cite yards per route

93
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,159
Speaker 1: run at running back, I'm not sure.

94
00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,120
Speaker 2: We're citing it enough. Though.

95
00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,159
Speaker 1: To be fair, I'm not really listening to other fantasy podcasts,

96
00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,320
Speaker 1: so maybe I'm wrong. In the Draft Guy this year,

97
00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,000
Speaker 1: I break the running back position down into three buckets.

98
00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,160
Speaker 1: Early round players, middle round running backs, and then late

99
00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,560
Speaker 1: round running backs. I split things up because each part

100
00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:55,839
Speaker 1: of your draft actually dictates that you think about the

101
00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,320
Speaker 1: position a little bit differently versus how the market has

102
00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:02,360
Speaker 1: historically behaved. There are some interesting pass catching trends with

103
00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,280
Speaker 1: early round running backs, but I'll save that for another day.

104
00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:07,920
Speaker 1: What I really want to get to today is the

105
00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,680
Speaker 1: middle round area, which is defined as running backs ranked

106
00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,480
Speaker 1: as RB nineteen to RB forty two. Now, there are

107
00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,479
Speaker 1: reasons for those boundaries that I discussed in the guide,

108
00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 1: but that's also not that important of a topic for

109
00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:23,719
Speaker 1: today's show. Just know that I've defined middle round running

110
00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:26,640
Speaker 1: backs as the ones who are ranked nineteenth to forty

111
00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:31,080
Speaker 1: second by average draft position since twenty fourteen, which is

112
00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,560
Speaker 1: where my ADP data goes back to and shout out

113
00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,880
Speaker 1: Fantasy data for that data. But since twenty fourteen, there

114
00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,239
Speaker 1: have been two hundred and thirty three middle round running

115
00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,320
Speaker 1: backs who played at least eight games in their analyzed season,

116
00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,440
Speaker 1: so minimum eight games played and had an ADP of

117
00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:49,680
Speaker 1: RB nineteen to RB forty two. Fifty nine of those

118
00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,520
Speaker 1: two hundred and thirty three middle round running backs finished

119
00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,280
Speaker 1: their season with a sub five percent target share per

120
00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,919
Speaker 1: game rate. One hundred and four of them were in

121
00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,919
Speaker 1: the five percent to ten percent range, and then seventy

122
00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,520
Speaker 1: of those running backs had a ten percent target share

123
00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,440
Speaker 1: per game rate or better. Now get this, of the

124
00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,880
Speaker 1: players with a sub five percent target share, only one

125
00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,400
Speaker 1: point seven percent of them outperform their average draft position

126
00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:17,560
Speaker 1: expectation by two or more PPR points per game. Now,

127
00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:21,200
Speaker 1: average draft position expectation it's exactly as it sounds. It's

128
00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,360
Speaker 1: the number of points we'd expect a player to score

129
00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:27,159
Speaker 1: at a certain ADP. That's all based on historical data.

130
00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,520
Speaker 1: So if that player's actual points per game exceeded his

131
00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:34,000
Speaker 1: expected points per game by two or more points, he'd

132
00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,320
Speaker 1: be in that one point seven percent bucket, but one

133
00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:41,039
Speaker 1: point seven percent is an insanely small number. For the

134
00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,560
Speaker 1: backs who had target shairs between five percent ten percent,

135
00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:47,000
Speaker 1: that number jumps up to twenty one percent. Twenty one

136
00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:50,520
Speaker 1: percent of those players outperform ADP expectation by two or

137
00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:51,400
Speaker 1: more points per game.

138
00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,040
Speaker 2: For the guys with target shaars above.

139
00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,719
Speaker 1: Ten percent, the rate about performing expectation by two or

140
00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:01,039
Speaker 1: more points per game is forty three percent. And when

141
00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:03,880
Speaker 1: you talk about ceiling, I mean forget about the guys

142
00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,799
Speaker 1: who don't catch passes. When looking at middle round running

143
00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,640
Speaker 1: backs who exceed expectation by six or more points per game,

144
00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:12,160
Speaker 1: which are like the true league winning players from the

145
00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,200
Speaker 1: middle rounds, none of them out of the fifty nine

146
00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:19,560
Speaker 1: with sub five percent target shaars got there. Meanwhile, just

147
00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,679
Speaker 1: two percent of the one hundred and four running backs

148
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,880
Speaker 1: with a five to ten percent target share per game rate,

149
00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,280
Speaker 1: just two percent of them got there. But then almost

150
00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,840
Speaker 1: sixteen percent of the backs who had a ten percent

151
00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,360
Speaker 1: target share per game rate or better were able to

152
00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:37,480
Speaker 1: outperform expectation by six or more PPR points per game. Look,

153
00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,560
Speaker 1: middle round running backs have this really wide range of

154
00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:44,240
Speaker 1: possible target share outcomes. There are so many archetypes of

155
00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,600
Speaker 1: running backs in that area of your draft, and that

156
00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,520
Speaker 1: makes for a larger discrepancy and outcome when it comes

157
00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:52,760
Speaker 1: to target share. So the clear trend here is that

158
00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,080
Speaker 1: you basically only want a target pass catchers in the

159
00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,680
Speaker 1: middle rounds of your draft. But again, saying that is

160
00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:03,600
Speaker 1: one thing, actually having a tool to find it is another. Now,

161
00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,040
Speaker 1: you can look at previous season target share to get

162
00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:09,320
Speaker 1: a decent idea, but that's a bigger and better idea

163
00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:13,280
Speaker 1: for early round running backs. Why Because early round running

164
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 1: backs generally have a season under their belt. That's why

165
00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,960
Speaker 1: they're being drafted in the early rounds. With middle round guys,

166
00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:22,160
Speaker 1: you'll have players who were like part time players the

167
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,000
Speaker 1: year prior and they're being drafted as an RB three

168
00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,960
Speaker 1: because maybe they showed us something, or maybe they're in

169
00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:33,000
Speaker 1: an ambiguous backfield where the backfield appears split. The middle

170
00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,960
Speaker 1: rounds are full of running backs who are unknowns, while

171
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,640
Speaker 1: the early rounds they're not. That's basically what I'm getting

172
00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:42,000
Speaker 1: at here, and why simply looking at how previous season

173
00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:44,960
Speaker 1: target shair is correlated to outperforming expectation in the early

174
00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:48,680
Speaker 1: rounds is more impactful than the middle rounds. In the

175
00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:52,040
Speaker 1: middle rounds, you're better off looking at previous season yards

176
00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:55,040
Speaker 1: per route run. Now, going back to our sample of

177
00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,640
Speaker 1: two hundred and thirty three middle round running backs, one

178
00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,480
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty seven of them were coming off seasons

179
00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:03,000
Speaker 1: where they had run one hundred or more routes and

180
00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:06,240
Speaker 1: shout out PFF for the routes run data. So essentially,

181
00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:08,720
Speaker 1: we're starting with two hundred and thirty three running backs,

182
00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:10,880
Speaker 1: but then we're removing a chunk of them because they

183
00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:12,599
Speaker 1: either didn't get enough run as a receiver in the

184
00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:16,760
Speaker 1: previous season or they were rookies. I then grouped those

185
00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,680
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty seven backs into four buckets. You

186
00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,600
Speaker 1: could think of them as Tier A, Tier B, Tier C,

187
00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:26,240
Speaker 1: and Tier D and yards per route run, and that's

188
00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,800
Speaker 1: previous season yards per oute run. Tier A is the

189
00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:33,760
Speaker 1: best group, Tier B is the second best, and so on. Now,

190
00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,240
Speaker 1: Tier A is designated by running backs who hit a

191
00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:38,480
Speaker 1: one point seven yards per rout run rate in their

192
00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:39,920
Speaker 1: previous season or above.

193
00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,920
Speaker 2: It's arbitrary, but it gives us a decent enough sample

194
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:44,480
Speaker 2: to work with.

195
00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,839
Speaker 1: Twenty five running backs did that after hitting one hundred

196
00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,280
Speaker 1: routes run in their previous season. Tier B is one

197
00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,280
Speaker 1: point two to one point seven yards per route run,

198
00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,480
Speaker 1: Tier C is point seven to one point two, and

199
00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:00,720
Speaker 1: then Tier D, the worst group, is less than point

200
00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,720
Speaker 1: seven yards per out run in that N minus one

201
00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:07,640
Speaker 1: season or the previous season. Tier B has fifty two

202
00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,680
Speaker 1: running backs in it, TIERC has sixty four, and Tier

203
00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:14,600
Speaker 1: D has twenty six. So we have four groups that

204
00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:17,200
Speaker 1: are formed by previous season yards per route run.

205
00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:18,400
Speaker 2: Now get this.

206
00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:20,480
Speaker 1: Of the twenty six running backs who had a sub

207
00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:22,800
Speaker 1: point seven yards per out run rate in their N

208
00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,640
Speaker 1: minus one season that previous season, just eight percent of

209
00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:30,920
Speaker 1: them exceeded eightp expectation the following year by two or

210
00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:34,400
Speaker 1: more PPR points per game. Every other group was at

211
00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,760
Speaker 1: least twenty four percent, so three times the rate of

212
00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,280
Speaker 1: Tier D. Meanwhile, not a single one of the twenty

213
00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,560
Speaker 1: six running backs from Tier D exceeded expectation by six

214
00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,040
Speaker 1: or more points per game. Not a single one of

215
00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:51,319
Speaker 1: them had a monstrously high ceiling. Now, on the flip side,

216
00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:55,280
Speaker 1: the best upside rates they come from Tier A. Twenty

217
00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,480
Speaker 1: four percent of them exceeded expectation by four or more

218
00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:02,160
Speaker 1: PPR points per game. That's seven percentage points better than

219
00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:07,000
Speaker 1: any other group. Twelve percent of them outperform expectation by

220
00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,960
Speaker 1: six or more PPR points per game. That's nearly double

221
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,800
Speaker 1: any other group. To put this another way, previous season

222
00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,520
Speaker 1: yards per route run can at least directionally get us

223
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,120
Speaker 1: closer to hitting on running backs in the middle rounds.

224
00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:22,200
Speaker 1: And for the record, this all comes down to target share.

225
00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,800
Speaker 1: Since twenty fourteen, we haven't seen a single Tier D

226
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,520
Speaker 1: running back get to a ten percent target chair per

227
00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:31,440
Speaker 1: game rate, meaning they have some sort of yards per

228
00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:34,800
Speaker 1: out run rate below point seven in one season, and

229
00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:37,440
Speaker 1: then the following season they fail to reach a ten

230
00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,760
Speaker 1: percent target share. And as we just discussed, a ten

231
00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,000
Speaker 1: percent target share means a lot out of the middle rounds.

232
00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:45,719
Speaker 2: Now.

233
00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:47,920
Speaker 1: Of course, a lot of those players just didn't have

234
00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,240
Speaker 1: high target shairs in the previous season to begin with,

235
00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:54,600
Speaker 1: and previous season target share that can be helpful too.

236
00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,959
Speaker 1: It's just that statistically, yards per route run for middle

237
00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,680
Speaker 1: round running backs is more health. And not only that,

238
00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,320
Speaker 1: but this is not just for the extremes. This is

239
00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,520
Speaker 1: not just looking at players who had really low yards

240
00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,040
Speaker 1: per out run rates or players who had really high ones.

241
00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:12,480
Speaker 1: Even guys who had point seven to one point two

242
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,920
Speaker 1: yards per rout run rates, they only hit a ten

243
00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,000
Speaker 1: percent target share the following season at about a nineteen

244
00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,680
Speaker 1: percent rate. There were nineteen of those Tier C players

245
00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,120
Speaker 1: who had target shairs of ten percent or better and

246
00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,840
Speaker 1: their n minus one season their previous season, so they

247
00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:29,800
Speaker 1: hit a ten percent target share per game rate in

248
00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,320
Speaker 1: one year. They ran one hundred plus routes that year,

249
00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,320
Speaker 1: and they had a yards per out run rate of

250
00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,320
Speaker 1: point seven to one point two.

251
00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:41,280
Speaker 2: Then they played eight games the following year. Of those

252
00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,880
Speaker 2: nineteen with pretty low yards per rout run rates and

253
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:47,199
Speaker 2: a ten percent target share, only five of them had

254
00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:49,520
Speaker 2: a target share per game rate above ten percent the

255
00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:53,000
Speaker 2: following year. You would think something like that might be

256
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:53,520
Speaker 2: a little bit.

257
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,600
Speaker 1: Stickier, but it's not as sticky when the back is

258
00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:00,320
Speaker 1: ineffective per route run. And just to be totally clear,

259
00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:02,400
Speaker 1: yards per rout run is something that you can look

260
00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,280
Speaker 1: at across all rounds of your draft. It just seems

261
00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,640
Speaker 1: to be the most meaningful when things are most up

262
00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:11,080
Speaker 1: in the air, which is the middle rounds. Like I said,

263
00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,680
Speaker 1: in the early rounds, most players will have a high

264
00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:17,080
Speaker 1: target share projection. In the late rounds, most players are

265
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:19,760
Speaker 1: just gonna kind of suck for fantasy purposes. In the

266
00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,360
Speaker 1: middle rounds, you get a wide variety of usable players,

267
00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,439
Speaker 1: and this all works in both directions. If a player

268
00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:29,400
Speaker 1: had a low yards per rou run rate, then he

269
00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,800
Speaker 1: has a better chance to not see an uptick and

270
00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,679
Speaker 1: target share the following year. If it's high, though, then

271
00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,079
Speaker 1: he's gonna have better odds of getting to that ten

272
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:40,120
Speaker 1: percent target share mark. And then these players are gonna

273
00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,800
Speaker 1: have better or worse odds at exceeding ADP expectation as.

274
00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:45,240
Speaker 2: Well, which is the most important thing.

275
00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,320
Speaker 1: Now, the obvious question based on all this information is

276
00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,000
Speaker 1: who should we be targeting and who should we be

277
00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:52,760
Speaker 1: avoiding in twenty twenty five.

278
00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:55,680
Speaker 2: And I want to say none of this is full proof.

279
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:57,040
Speaker 2: You shouldn't just take.

280
00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,920
Speaker 1: One metric and full on fade a player based on one.

281
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,640
Speaker 1: This is all about probability and improving our probability of

282
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,920
Speaker 1: hitting on some of these players. But funny enough, the

283
00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,000
Speaker 1: main middle round running back this year who had a

284
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:13,080
Speaker 1: sweet yards perrou run rate last year was David Montgomery.

285
00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:16,320
Speaker 1: Now there are many reasons why his situation is just

286
00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,960
Speaker 1: simply unique, So I don't know if this is super

287
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:22,840
Speaker 1: actionable for him, but it's still interesting. But there's also

288
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,960
Speaker 1: Austin Eckler eightyp sources may not have him quite in

289
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,080
Speaker 1: the middle round range, but he's at least rounded, and

290
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,760
Speaker 1: regardless of where you are in your draft, like I've

291
00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,360
Speaker 1: been saying, yards perrout run does seem to matter to

292
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:36,680
Speaker 1: some degree.

293
00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 2: He was literally at one point six y nine to

294
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:39,920
Speaker 2: four last year.

295
00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,480
Speaker 1: He was point zero zero one yards away from hitting

296
00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:47,160
Speaker 1: our relatively arbitrary one point seven threshold. Now I mentioned Eckler,

297
00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,560
Speaker 1: I'm becoming a best ball bro but the gap between

298
00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,520
Speaker 1: him and Brian Robinson, in my opinion, shouldn't be nearly

299
00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:55,560
Speaker 1: as wide as it is now. On the other end

300
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,760
Speaker 1: of things, there are three backs to call out. Jordan

301
00:14:57,840 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 1: Mason is one of them. He had a point five

302
00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,800
Speaker 1: four yards per out run rate last year, and remember

303
00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:05,800
Speaker 1: players below that point seven mark have not hit a

304
00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,560
Speaker 1: ten percent target share the following season since at least

305
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:13,040
Speaker 1: twenty fourteen. But it's Jordan Mason, Then it's Romandre Stevenson,

306
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,680
Speaker 1: who likely won't get there now with Trayvon Henderson in

307
00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:16,200
Speaker 1: New England.

308
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,400
Speaker 2: And then there's one surprising player. It's Chuba Hubbard.

309
00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,320
Speaker 1: Now, Hubbard technically is like on the fringe of being

310
00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,040
Speaker 1: an early round pick versus the middle round one. But

311
00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,000
Speaker 1: to reiterate, it's not like these trends seas do exist

312
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,480
Speaker 1: when you hit RB nineteen. It's just that we gradually

313
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:36,360
Speaker 1: can shift our focus to different things. Hubbard has never

314
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:38,520
Speaker 1: been a beast in yards per out run. He actually

315
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:40,800
Speaker 1: had just one point seventy nine yards per out run

316
00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:44,280
Speaker 1: rate and twenty twenty three that led the following year.

317
00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,760
Speaker 1: It's almost a twelve percent target share per game rate.

318
00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:49,720
Speaker 1: So he wasn't a Tier D running back, but he

319
00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,920
Speaker 1: wasn't far off. But I'm probably gonna be more bearish

320
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,720
Speaker 1: than bullish in twenty twenty five. We rarely see, in fact,

321
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,720
Speaker 1: we haven't seen since twenty fourteen a running back with

322
00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,240
Speaker 1: this slow of a previous season yards perrout run rate,

323
00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,640
Speaker 1: see a high target shair the following season, and they

324
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,000
Speaker 1: haven't given us any league winning seasons either.

325
00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:10,640
Speaker 2: And look at what the Panthers did this offseason.

326
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,800
Speaker 1: They added Rico Dowdell, he can play a pass catching role,

327
00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,200
Speaker 1: and they drafted Trevor Etn who's a pass catching back.

328
00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:21,320
Speaker 1: There's definitely a scenario here where Chuba Hubbard isn't used

329
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,200
Speaker 1: quite as much as a pass catcher here in twenty

330
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 1: twenty five, and if that happens, that's not good news

331
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,920
Speaker 1: for his ability to outperform cost. There are some others

332
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,000
Speaker 1: who are more fringe, and I break things down more

333
00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 1: in the Draft Guy, but those are the big ones

334
00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,880
Speaker 1: to watch out with this research. Now, look, it's not

335
00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:41,080
Speaker 1: that yards per out run is this perfect running back stat.

336
00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:41,520
Speaker 2: It's not.

337
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,240
Speaker 1: We see research done all the time on which stats

338
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 1: correlate to next season's success, and that research is obviously

339
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:51,840
Speaker 1: really helpful to this game that we all love, and

340
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,600
Speaker 1: running back yards per out run it probably won't rank

341
00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:55,440
Speaker 1: very high on that.

342
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 2: List of metrics to focus on.

343
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 1: But what's missing from that analysis is what's actually being

344
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:05,560
Speaker 1: captured and what isn't being captured by the market. Some statistics,

345
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:09,480
Speaker 1: like touchdown rate at quarterback, some stats see really poor

346
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,960
Speaker 1: correlation year over year. We shouldn't be drafting players based

347
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,800
Speaker 1: on previous season touchdown rate. But because the market actually

348
00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 1: seems to do that, then we can lean into it too,

349
00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,239
Speaker 1: because we know how to spot values. Then that's what

350
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 1: I talked about a couple of weeks ago on that

351
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:28,960
Speaker 1: touchdown rate episode. We're doing the same thing here, except

352
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:33,680
Speaker 1: we're targeting the statistic because to this day, gamers are

353
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 1: just still undervaluing pass catching at running back, and this

354
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,679
Speaker 1: is one way to increase your odds and hitting on

355
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:45,000
Speaker 1: that league winning pass catching back. Okay, now that you

356
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,919
Speaker 1: heard all that, you're undoubtedly wondering which running backs have

357
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,720
Speaker 1: red flags associated with their profiles this year here in

358
00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, and maybe which ones have green flags.

359
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,959
Speaker 1: Looking at Fantasy Pros current ADP, I'll look specifically at

360
00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:02,320
Speaker 1: RB nineteen to RB forty two, again middle round running backs.

361
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,360
Speaker 1: There really aren't that many elite yards per out run

362
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,040
Speaker 1: profiles in the middle rounds this year, but the best

363
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,000
Speaker 1: one out there belongs to Jalen Warren, who was at

364
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,960
Speaker 1: one point five to eight last year according to PFF data.

365
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,320
Speaker 1: Kenneth Gainwells is pretty close to that, but Bucky Irving

366
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,360
Speaker 1: currently RB nineteen His was pretty much the exact same

367
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,960
Speaker 1: and they're obviously in the same backfield this year. So

368
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 1: on the good side, Jalen Warren does stand out at

369
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 1: least a little bit. I don't think that alone makes

370
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 1: him a great value or a target, but it certainly

371
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:33,320
Speaker 1: gives him a little bit of a boost.

372
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,960
Speaker 2: Now, on the bad side, there's a lot to get through.

373
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 1: Javonte Williams technically isn't in that middle round bucket this

374
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,320
Speaker 1: year because he's the RB eighteen, but I do think

375
00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,760
Speaker 1: his point four zero yards per out run from last

376
00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 1: year is worrisome. Fortunately for him, that depth chart looks

377
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,280
Speaker 1: really bad behind him, so it may not totally impact him.

378
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,120
Speaker 1: It's not like Chuba Hubbard last year, where we had

379
00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 1: a pretty decent back in.

380
00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 2: Ric o'dowdele backing him up.

381
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:01,640
Speaker 1: Some of you will probably want me to point out

382
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,479
Speaker 1: Bashall Tutin, who is at point nine in yards per

383
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,520
Speaker 1: out run, but Tutin didn't run one hundred routes last year.

384
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 2: His data point really isn't that reliable.

385
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 1: Chris Rodriguez, his top competition, who's also a middle round pick,

386
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 1: Technically he didn't get there either, and his yards per

387
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,880
Speaker 1: out run was pretty miserable at point three to four, albeit.

388
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 2: In a different situation now. Technically, Blake Korm and JK.

389
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:27,919
Speaker 1: Dobbins fall into this category with really low yards per

390
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,119
Speaker 1: out run rates of point three to one and point

391
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 1: three to two, but they barely were over that one

392
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,719
Speaker 1: hundred route mark. We once again had Jordan Mason, who

393
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 1: had a point three to two yards per out run

394
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 1: rate last year. He's just not a pass catcher. He's

395
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,639
Speaker 1: never been a great pass catcher. I wouldn't expect that

396
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 1: to change here in twenty twenty six. Now, something kind

397
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 1: of interesting on this list. Rashad White, who's now in Washington.

398
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:52,920
Speaker 1: He had his worst yards per out run rate of

399
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 1: his career last year, at point seven to two on

400
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 1: over three.

401
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 2: Hundred routes run.

402
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:02,680
Speaker 1: Bucky Irving was significantly better in the same offense. Now

403
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:06,239
Speaker 1: Whites in Washington and Jacory Krossky Merritt, his yards per

404
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,880
Speaker 1: out run was also miserable last year, at point four

405
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 1: to nine on one hundred and forty routes.

406
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 2: So there's not obvious.

407
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 1: Competition to take some of those looks from Rashad White,

408
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 1: and I'm definitely concerned about crossky Merritt. Now another player

409
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 1: to call out, Kyle Mnungui. I Thinknung Guy's in that

410
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,120
Speaker 1: like Blake Koram Bucket, as I said on the Late

411
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,919
Speaker 1: Round Show, where I like him and I like Korum

412
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 1: and best Ball, where we don't have to choose when

413
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,439
Speaker 1: those big weeks are gonna happen, and then they have

414
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 1: that injury upside, but I think for both of those guys,

415
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 1: without an injury, we probably won't see huge receiving numbers.

416
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 1: Tony Pollard is an even bigger red flag this year

417
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 1: than he was last year. His yards per out run

418
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 1: was point six to eight last year. That was the

419
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 1: worst of his career, so I'm pretty nervous about him

420
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. And in the final call out

421
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 1: Trayvon Henderson two hundred and thirty eight routes run point

422
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 1: nine to three yards per out run. That's not sound

423
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 1: the alarms territory, but we'd rather have a little bit

424
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 1: higher of a number. So if I were to sum

425
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,360
Speaker 1: up the negative side the red flag side, I'd say

426
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,959
Speaker 1: Blake korm and Kyle man Ungui. They both look like

427
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 1: split backfield running backs who won't see a big uptick

428
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 1: in receiving work. But with their current contingent upside, there's

429
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 1: still not bad picks in best ball, just not as

430
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 1: much in your managed league. Jacory Krosky merrit didn't have

431
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,199
Speaker 1: a super well rounded receiving profile as a prospect, and

432
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 1: it didn't translate in year one, so that's a problem.

433
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 1: Jordan Mason continues to be someone who doesn't fit my

434
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 1: process very well similar to last year, and then Tony Pollard,

435
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 1: I just don't.

436
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 2: Think he's a high upside selection.

437
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 1: And yeah, I think this data does point to us

438
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 1: pumping the brakes a little bit, assuming there's going to

439
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 1: be some massive change in New England. There's more bad

440
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 1: than good here because we're talking about lower tiered running backs,

441
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 1: lower tiered starters. But if we approach these profiles with

442
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 1: the right kind of caution, it can give us a

443
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 1: little bit of an edge.

444
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 2: That's it for today's sho though. Thanks to log of

445
00:21:59,160 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 2: you for listening.

446
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 1: If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,

447
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 1: make sure you are bestarting for it pretty much anywhere

448
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 1: podcast can be found, and to follow me on Twitter

449
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 1: and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.

450
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone.

451
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 1: I'll be back with the Late Round Show on Wednesday

452
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 1: at noon Eastern on YouTube, and then it's.

453
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 2: A mailbag week, so I'll talk to you with that

454
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 2: on Friday. Take care