WEBVTT - Bloomberg Wall Street Week: Stimulus Special

0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.360
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. What's the state of

0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:06.360
<v Speaker 1>corporate governance? The deficent is a real issue. The US

0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:09.960
<v Speaker 1>economy continues to send mixed signals, the financial stories that

0:00:10.039 --> 0:00:13.560
<v Speaker 1>keep our world fed, action to con concerns over dollar liquidity,

0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:16.599
<v Speaker 1>and encouraging China data. The five hundred wealthiest people in

0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:19.560
<v Speaker 1>the world. Through the eyes of the most influential voices

0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:22.880
<v Speaker 1>Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, star Ward, CEO, Kevin

0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.640
<v Speaker 1>Johnson sec Chairman j Clayton. Bloomberg wool Street Week with

0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:30.639
<v Speaker 1>David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. The check is in the

0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:34.400
<v Speaker 1>mail for schools, for states, for restaurants, and oh yes,

0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:39.400
<v Speaker 1>for of American households. This is a special Stimulus edition

0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:43.440
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. President Biden

0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:46.640
<v Speaker 1>pledged to get the virus under control and get Americans vaccinated,

0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:50.000
<v Speaker 1>a priority that is reflected in the stimulus package. Everything

0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:53.760
<v Speaker 1>in the American Rescue Plan addresses a real need, including

0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:58.760
<v Speaker 1>investments to fund our entire vaccination effort, more vaccines, more

0:00:58.880 --> 0:01:04.000
<v Speaker 1>vaccinate tours, and more vaccination sites. About seven percent of

0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.360
<v Speaker 1>the one point nine trillion dollars will go towards the

0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:11.800
<v Speaker 1>country's pandemic response, including testing, contact tracing, and vaccine distribution.

0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:14.840
<v Speaker 1>The government is not alone in its efforts to get

0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:18.960
<v Speaker 1>people vaccinated. In North Carolina, Honeywell has been partnering with Atrium,

0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:21.320
<v Speaker 1>one of the largest health care systems in the country.

0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.600
<v Speaker 1>We have CEO Eugene Woods. How the campaign to get

0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:27.800
<v Speaker 1>shots in arms is going. Yeah, the challenge has been

0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.319
<v Speaker 1>from the beginning is getting enough vaccines. I think you

0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:33.040
<v Speaker 1>see things ramping up and so we're excited about that now.

0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:36.160
<v Speaker 1>Really it's just a distribution issue. I do have concerns

0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:39.800
<v Speaker 1>that we need to to take a state like North Carolina.

0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:42.200
<v Speaker 1>We're about ten million people in North Carolina. If you

0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:44.280
<v Speaker 1>take out the two million that or sixteen and under

0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:48.640
<v Speaker 1>we've got to vaccinate about, you know, to get her

0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:51.680
<v Speaker 1>her immunity. So that's eight millions. That's about seven million

0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:53.800
<v Speaker 1>or so that we need to get vaccinated. And we've

0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:56.840
<v Speaker 1>gotten one point five shots and arms one point five

0:01:56.840 --> 0:01:58.600
<v Speaker 1>million shots and I'm so far, so we still got

0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.200
<v Speaker 1>a ways to go. That's aid. We went from about

0:02:01.200 --> 0:02:03.560
<v Speaker 1>the bottom fifteen in terms of states to number one,

0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:06.920
<v Speaker 1>uh last week in terms of over sixty five getting

0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:09.280
<v Speaker 1>shots and arms. So we're gonna continue this path, and

0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:12.480
<v Speaker 1>as as supply becomes more plentiful, I think we're gonna

0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:16.440
<v Speaker 1>be able to continue to use mass mass vaccination sites

0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:20.760
<v Speaker 1>to get shots. Before this this variant comes into play,

0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:24.200
<v Speaker 1>which is what concerns me. Are you getting any resistance

0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:26.320
<v Speaker 1>at all? Because we hear some descriptions that could be

0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:30.840
<v Speaker 1>of the population that just isn't really interested in getting vaccinated. Yeah,

0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:33.600
<v Speaker 1>that's the challenge, right, So if you think about her community,

0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:35.560
<v Speaker 1>depending on what scientists you talked about, we need to

0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:41.320
<v Speaker 1>get about the population vaccinated. Right now, there's about hesitancy

0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:45.519
<v Speaker 1>about about thirty percent that I'm hearing the latest statistics,

0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:49.040
<v Speaker 1>So to get we have to eat into that about right,

0:02:49.040 --> 0:02:50.919
<v Speaker 1>And so that's the work that we're doing right now.

0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:54.560
<v Speaker 1>There are some glimmers of hope um African Americans, for example,

0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:58.200
<v Speaker 1>who have had for all very good reasons and mistrust

0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.720
<v Speaker 1>of the health care system. Back in the number said

0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:04.519
<v Speaker 1>they we're going to get the vaccine vaccine. The most

0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:07.000
<v Speaker 1>recent numbers I saw us at six. So we're beginning

0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:09.520
<v Speaker 1>to make some progress, but they're still work to be done.

0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:12.280
<v Speaker 1>So address that question very specifically, because I know in

0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:15.400
<v Speaker 1>New York, for example, that there's a disproportionate number of

0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:19.239
<v Speaker 1>African Americans and Latin X individuals who are more at risk,

0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:21.880
<v Speaker 1>disproportion number who haven't gotten the vaccine yet there they

0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.400
<v Speaker 1>are under indexing. Is that true in North Carolina at

0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:26.800
<v Speaker 1>this point? It's true all over the country unfortunately. And

0:03:26.800 --> 0:03:29.000
<v Speaker 1>that's why you've got to be really really intentional about

0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:32.680
<v Speaker 1>your strategies to reach those communities of color. So, for example,

0:03:32.720 --> 0:03:35.920
<v Speaker 1>we have roving bands that we're working with this coalition

0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:39.560
<v Speaker 1>of churches, about sixty churches. They're African American and Latin X.

0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:41.720
<v Speaker 1>And so we're going through the parking lots and and

0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.800
<v Speaker 1>we're really saying tell us where we need to go,

0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:47.640
<v Speaker 1>and in the roving bands and think about a physician

0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:50.080
<v Speaker 1>office basically on wheels, and we go to where where

0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:53.640
<v Speaker 1>we're needed sev of the people that were vaccinating or

0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:55.720
<v Speaker 1>people of color. And then when we've done the mass

0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:59.520
<v Speaker 1>vaccination events at Bank of America Stadium, we preferentially opened

0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:03.080
<v Speaker 1>the schedule to those churches another other vulnerable community. So

0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:05.320
<v Speaker 1>you've got to be really intentional about the strategy. The

0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:08.360
<v Speaker 1>one thing that I'm proud working together with Honeywell, the

0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:12.400
<v Speaker 1>Panthers and Motor Speedway. We put together a playbook. Andy Slavitt,

0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:16.520
<v Speaker 1>who's on the President Biden's Corner Virus task for US,

0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:19.200
<v Speaker 1>asked for sort of what have the key lessons learned,

0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:20.960
<v Speaker 1>and so we shared that a couple of weeks ago.

0:04:21.040 --> 0:04:24.000
<v Speaker 1>He shared that with the governors and we're hoping that

0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:27.039
<v Speaker 1>that there's some insights there that could help the country

0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:28.960
<v Speaker 1>do this well. So, Jeanne, if you would take it

0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:31.520
<v Speaker 1>a half step back here from the specifics of the

0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:34.400
<v Speaker 1>vaccination and talking about healthcare provision more generally in this

0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:36.080
<v Speaker 1>time of the pandemic and beyond. We now have a

0:04:36.120 --> 0:04:38.400
<v Speaker 1>new stimulus bill one point nine trillion dollars has a

0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:42.840
<v Speaker 1>fair amounty money in there actually subsidize some uh the exchanges.

0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:44.960
<v Speaker 1>So the people in Ford Healthcare, do you see a

0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.480
<v Speaker 1>shift going on because of the stimulus bill in your business? Yeah,

0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:50.719
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think we're really excited that the stimulus

0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:53.960
<v Speaker 1>bill has a number of important provisions, including, you know,

0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:58.000
<v Speaker 1>additional dollars for for for distribution of the vaccine, and

0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:01.320
<v Speaker 1>there's some other uh part of that that includes helping

0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:03.840
<v Speaker 1>some of these community based centers that are really been

0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:06.760
<v Speaker 1>struggling and also rural care. So we're we're excited about

0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:09.080
<v Speaker 1>that that what we didn't see in that is additional

0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.640
<v Speaker 1>relief for providers. Uh and to the extent that we

0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:14.680
<v Speaker 1>would hope. We've been on the front line of this

0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:17.240
<v Speaker 1>health systems and so we're still not out of the woods.

0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:19.680
<v Speaker 1>So we're we're hoping to work with the administration to

0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:24.080
<v Speaker 1>have other opportunities for providing additional support to the health

0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:26.600
<v Speaker 1>systems like ours, because we're still very much in the battle.

0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.440
<v Speaker 1>What about the cost of healthcare? We hear from some

0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:32.000
<v Speaker 1>people that with the move to telehealth, which seems to

0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:34.280
<v Speaker 1>have really ramped up during the pandemic, that we may

0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:36.440
<v Speaker 1>actually finally be able to bend that cost curve a

0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:38.599
<v Speaker 1>little bit. Are you finding that in North Carolina? Yeah?

0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:40.159
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think we could spend the next hour

0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:42.400
<v Speaker 1>talking about the cost of health care and affordability. We

0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:45.240
<v Speaker 1>we do know that it's a multi factorial issue that

0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:48.479
<v Speaker 1>includes pharma, that includes insurance companies, providers, We all own

0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:50.359
<v Speaker 1>a piece of that. But I think that what we

0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:52.440
<v Speaker 1>learned in the pandemic is that we can provide care

0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:56.440
<v Speaker 1>in vastly different ways. For example, we started UM when

0:05:56.440 --> 0:06:00.000
<v Speaker 1>we when we had some challenges with occupancy bed occupancy.

0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:03.560
<v Speaker 1>We started this hospital come program. We've seen fifty thousand

0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:06.200
<v Speaker 1>patients in their home during this COVID UH and that's

0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:08.920
<v Speaker 1>just a different sort of way to deliver care. So

0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.640
<v Speaker 1>we really think the learnings that we've had through this

0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:14.680
<v Speaker 1>through this past year will carry forward and among other things,

0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:17.560
<v Speaker 1>will will help with affordability of healthcare. That was Atrium

0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:21.200
<v Speaker 1>Health CEO Eugene Woods coming up. What the stimulus package

0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:23.479
<v Speaker 1>would mean for the states and what the three hundred

0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:26.680
<v Speaker 1>and sixty billion dollars they get will pay for from

0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:30.040
<v Speaker 1>Ned Lamont, governor of the state of Connecticut. That's next

0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:42.719
<v Speaker 1>on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall

0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:46.560
<v Speaker 1>Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. One of

0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.360
<v Speaker 1>the most controversial parts of the one point nine trillion

0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.599
<v Speaker 1>dollar packages the aid for state and local governments, with

0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:55.920
<v Speaker 1>Democrats insisting it's badly needed to make up for lost

0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:59.440
<v Speaker 1>revenues and for increased costs they've incurred because of the

0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:02.239
<v Speaker 1>pandemic that has led to more than a million state

0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:06.400
<v Speaker 1>and municipal employees losing their jobs. About one fifth of

0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:09.240
<v Speaker 1>the one point nine trillion dollars stimulus package will go

0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:12.760
<v Speaker 1>to states and local governments. The Care's Act, signed into

0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:15.679
<v Speaker 1>law a year ago, included one hundred and fifty billion

0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:19.360
<v Speaker 1>dollars in aid to states and localities. This time they're

0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:22.880
<v Speaker 1>getting three hundred fifty billion dollars and an additional ten

0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:26.840
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars to put toward critical infrastructure projects. Here's New

0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:29.560
<v Speaker 1>Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. We need a big chuck of

0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:31.600
<v Speaker 1>state local aid. And we're not alone. This is every

0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:35.280
<v Speaker 1>American state. That sounds abstract, but what that means is

0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:41.280
<v Speaker 1>keeping the frontline workers, police, fire educators, healthcare workers employed

0:07:41.440 --> 0:07:44.600
<v Speaker 1>in their position, delivering the services that our residents so

0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:48.480
<v Speaker 1>desperately need. But Republicans take a very different view, saying

0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:51.120
<v Speaker 1>the state assistance amounts to a bailout of states that

0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:54.480
<v Speaker 1>have run up their bills under Democratic leadership. Those at

0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:57.080
<v Speaker 1>a focused bill of targeted bill. We need to help

0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:58.920
<v Speaker 1>the people have lost their jobs. We need to help

0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:01.360
<v Speaker 1>our small business. No, it was a payback to New

0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:04.400
<v Speaker 1>York and California. I mean, think about what they've done

0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:07.520
<v Speaker 1>with the state bailoffs that Senator Rick Scott of Florida,

0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:10.200
<v Speaker 1>and it does appear that at least when it comes

0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:13.920
<v Speaker 1>to revenue losses, different states have had very different experiences.

0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:17.880
<v Speaker 1>Here's Jamie Diamond from JP Morgan Chase. Half the states

0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:20.960
<v Speaker 1>revenues went up, they didn't go down. Do they need help?

0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:23.400
<v Speaker 1>So they should be cautious about overdoing it. Get us

0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:26.000
<v Speaker 1>through the problem. Keept the country growing, but you know,

0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:28.120
<v Speaker 1>don't try not to overdo it too much. According to

0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:32.000
<v Speaker 1>the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, states and localities

0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.320
<v Speaker 1>have received three hundred sixty billion dollars from the federal

0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:38.440
<v Speaker 1>government since the beginning of the pandemic, but states say

0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:41.560
<v Speaker 1>they need more assistance because much of the funding provided

0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:46.160
<v Speaker 1>to them has been limited to specific programs like Medicaid. Again,

0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:50.520
<v Speaker 1>Senator Rick Scott, our state revenues are equal to what

0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:53.199
<v Speaker 1>they year the year before, and they gave more to

0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.560
<v Speaker 1>states like New York and California than state. It's like

0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:58.600
<v Speaker 1>my home state of Florida. But I mean, it makes

0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:01.400
<v Speaker 1>no sense how unfair this is to the American public.

0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:04.120
<v Speaker 1>Whatever the merits. In the end, about one fifth of

0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:06.960
<v Speaker 1>the one point nine trillion dollar stimulus package will go

0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:10.320
<v Speaker 1>to states and local governments. We asked Connecticut Governor Ned

0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:14.079
<v Speaker 1>Lamont why his state needed the money. Look, we know

0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:17.600
<v Speaker 1>that we've got our budget set for the next couple

0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:19.480
<v Speaker 1>of years. We know that we don't have to raise

0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:22.319
<v Speaker 1>any taxes. We know that there won't be any broad layoffs,

0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:25.120
<v Speaker 1>and that's all thanks to the state and local aid.

0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:28.079
<v Speaker 1>But more importantly, I love what we're doing on education.

0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:30.960
<v Speaker 1>We have our schools have been open su September, but

0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:34.160
<v Speaker 1>we still have our kids who haven't been in the

0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:37.560
<v Speaker 1>classroom for um nine months. We've got a lot of

0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:39.600
<v Speaker 1>catching up to do, and it's a chance to make

0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:42.000
<v Speaker 1>sure that wasn't a last year. We can build off

0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:43.840
<v Speaker 1>of it. So what are you gonna do with the

0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:45.800
<v Speaker 1>money that you get? I mean, as a practica money.

0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:49.680
<v Speaker 1>You just mentioned employment issues, your budget and taxes, but

0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:52.280
<v Speaker 1>where's the money really gonna go. We're gonna spend it. Well,

0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:54.199
<v Speaker 1>first of all, on education. I can tell you the

0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:58.520
<v Speaker 1>school year doesn't end on June. It restarts again on

0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:01.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, July six, and we're going to have a

0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:05.760
<v Speaker 1>lot of activities in and around camps and learning experiential

0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:08.120
<v Speaker 1>a lot of kids who really haven't been with their

0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:10.760
<v Speaker 1>peers in a long time. Do I everything you can

0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:14.160
<v Speaker 1>to help them catch up. Maybe bring some college kids

0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:16.600
<v Speaker 1>in as apprentice teachers to help them learn and have

0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:19.679
<v Speaker 1>role models there and then come to fall, we'd have

0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:23.679
<v Speaker 1>after school activities, social workers and help these kids hit

0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:26.920
<v Speaker 1>the ground running. Is there any consideration at all of

0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:30.080
<v Speaker 1>extending the school year? Absolutely, I mean whether I legally

0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:33.000
<v Speaker 1>extend the school year or just say, starting July tenth,

0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:36.040
<v Speaker 1>we're going to have a two months of summer programs.

0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:39.079
<v Speaker 1>We'll figure out how to phrase that. So if it's

0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:41.200
<v Speaker 1>in facts the case that the schools are open but

0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:43.320
<v Speaker 1>you don't have all the students back in the classroom,

0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:45.840
<v Speaker 1>what is the barrier? Why aren't they back in the classroom.

0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:48.000
<v Speaker 1>It's it's sort of tragic, Davi. But I mean in

0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:54.000
<v Speaker 1>our suburban towns are more rural towns, predominantly white towns,

0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:56.040
<v Speaker 1>of the kids are back. But a lot of the

0:10:56.120 --> 0:10:59.240
<v Speaker 1>kids in our urban centers, small as they may be,

0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.319
<v Speaker 1>were likely to be a children of color. They were

0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:05.880
<v Speaker 1>hit particularly harder, their families were by COVID, and they've

0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:08.200
<v Speaker 1>been a lot more reluctant to get back. But now

0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:12.240
<v Speaker 1>we got our teachers vaccinated, our healthcare um frontline, and

0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:15.760
<v Speaker 1>the schools are vaccinated. They're calling up the kids saying

0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:17.920
<v Speaker 1>come back for the final two months. It's worth it.

0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.200
<v Speaker 1>Are all your teachers back are essentially all your teachers back.

0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:24.520
<v Speaker 1>Essentially they're all back. And what other effects we have.

0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:26.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm talking about employment because we saw in the last

0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:29.160
<v Speaker 1>employment numbers for the country the place where we really

0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:31.520
<v Speaker 1>lost a lot was actually in state and local employees.

0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:33.920
<v Speaker 1>What's happened in employment situation in Connecticut? Where are you

0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:36.120
<v Speaker 1>compared to a year ago? Where are you going in

0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:39.440
<v Speaker 1>terms of you know, actual state employees. That number has

0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:43.680
<v Speaker 1>been trending down for quite some time, and frankly, I

0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:46.480
<v Speaker 1>don't see us ramping up a lot. It's not COVID related,

0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:49.760
<v Speaker 1>but we're making more investments in a computer technology so

0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:52.600
<v Speaker 1>we can be a lot more efficient and less cost

0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:54.600
<v Speaker 1>I'll tell you the other thing I'm really excited about,

0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:58.240
<v Speaker 1>David as uh the money for daycare and childcare. We

0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:03.360
<v Speaker 1>lost a lot of employees and the service industry, overwhelmingly women,

0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:07.040
<v Speaker 1>often women of color. And the fact that we're going

0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:11.240
<v Speaker 1>to have heavily subsidize are even free daycare and childcare, uh,

0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:12.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, for the rest of this year, can make

0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:17.000
<v Speaker 1>a big difference in helping them get back into the workforce. Governor,

0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:19.680
<v Speaker 1>what about infrastructure, Because one of the things we've heard

0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:22.400
<v Speaker 1>about is not only a promise perhaps infrastructure coming down

0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:24.480
<v Speaker 1>the pike, but also that some of the money going

0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:27.199
<v Speaker 1>to state and local government could be used for infrastructure.

0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:30.160
<v Speaker 1>Is that true in Connecticut? Uh? That is it's it's

0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:33.400
<v Speaker 1>not big dollars for infrastructure. We need that infrastructure bill

0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:36.439
<v Speaker 1>going through. And we've got old infrastructure here in the Northeast.

0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.360
<v Speaker 1>As you know, this stuff was all built, uh you know,

0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:43.200
<v Speaker 1>sixty eight years ago. So what I've got our Department

0:12:43.200 --> 0:12:47.319
<v Speaker 1>of Transportation doing right now is doing the design, build, engineering,

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.640
<v Speaker 1>ready to go. So when the federal government says, here's

0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:54.840
<v Speaker 1>our infrastructure plan, will be funded, Connecticut and get in

0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:56.160
<v Speaker 1>the front of the line and get some of that,

0:12:56.920 --> 0:12:58.760
<v Speaker 1>give us an update. If you could governor on where

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:00.640
<v Speaker 1>COVID is in the state, it can etiquette. I've been

0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.000
<v Speaker 1>sort of watching the positivity rates and they've been coming down.

0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:06.120
<v Speaker 1>For you. Where are you in terms of the extended

0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.120
<v Speaker 1>the disease in the state and restrictions. So when it

0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:12.560
<v Speaker 1>comes to um you know, infection rate like the rest

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:15.400
<v Speaker 1>of the country, we've come down. It's not down to

0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:19.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, one percent, it's hovering around three percent. But

0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 1>the good news, David, which people want to pay more

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:24.880
<v Speaker 1>attention to is Uh, they tend to be younger people

0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:26.720
<v Speaker 1>who are a little more likely to be the ones

0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:30.960
<v Speaker 1>who are infected. Now, Folks fifty five and over overwhelmingly

0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:34.120
<v Speaker 1>vaccinated or will be in the next ten days or so.

0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:36.280
<v Speaker 1>So we have a lot less infection, a lot less

0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:39.800
<v Speaker 1>complications with the most at risk group. So I think

0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:42.240
<v Speaker 1>even though we have sort of a three percent two

0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:45.679
<v Speaker 1>to three percent infection rate, um, it's not really impacting

0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:49.600
<v Speaker 1>our hospitals, emergency rooms. I see us fatalities that those

0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.040
<v Speaker 1>numbers continue to get better. Where are you on the

0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 1>restrictions Texas? Of course, in Mississippi have just taking them

0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:57.760
<v Speaker 1>all off. It's only voluntary. Where is Connecticut? I think

0:13:57.800 --> 0:13:59.559
<v Speaker 1>I heard on the radio that you're going back to

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:01.840
<v Speaker 1>a hundred sent in the restaurants. Is that right? Yeah,

0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:06.040
<v Speaker 1>that is true. We're doing uh, you know, restaurants retail

0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:10.480
<v Speaker 1>houses of worship at a hundred percent occupancy. But we're

0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.840
<v Speaker 1>maintaining the mask requirement and we're maintaining the six foot

0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:17.760
<v Speaker 1>of distancing. That was Democratic Governor Ned Lamont of Connecticut

0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.920
<v Speaker 1>coming up. Everyone agrees that it's important to get children

0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:23.520
<v Speaker 1>back to school, but what does it take to do

0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:27.640
<v Speaker 1>that safely? Randy Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers,

0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:31.920
<v Speaker 1>says the Sinner's Package is the lifeline the education system needed.

0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:40.880
<v Speaker 1>That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is

0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:45.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio.

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.480
<v Speaker 1>Education in the time of the pandemic has been hard

0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:52.600
<v Speaker 1>on teachers and students. Schools across the country would try

0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:55.280
<v Speaker 1>to reopen, only to be forced to close again when

0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:59.480
<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen cases spiked. Here. Senator Ben Cardon of Maryland,

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 1>are schools need to open safely and be able to

0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:06.120
<v Speaker 1>remain on open safely. The American Rescue Plans sets aside

0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:10.120
<v Speaker 1>about one billion dollars to help K through twelve schools

0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>reopened by funding improvements the ventilation systems and buying personal

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.600
<v Speaker 1>protective equipment. There's a lot of resources and energy focused

0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.640
<v Speaker 1>on making sure that we contain the pandemic and importantly

0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 1>that schools can open safely so that all of those

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.680
<v Speaker 1>parents can get back to work knowing that their children

0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 1>are are learning what they need to learn in school.

0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:31.160
<v Speaker 1>That's Heather Bouchet, member of the White House Council of

0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 1>Economic Advisors. While parents are eager to get children back

0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:37.680
<v Speaker 1>to school. Some teachers unions have resisted a return to

0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:41.160
<v Speaker 1>in person classes for fear of new waves of COVID cases.

0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:46.960
<v Speaker 1>Here's Wall Street Week special contributor Larry Summers entrenched. I'll

0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:53.040
<v Speaker 1>say it, uh, teacher union interests that have resisted going

0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:58.840
<v Speaker 1>back to school have really been putting their own material

0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:04.840
<v Speaker 1>benefit I had of uh, the interests of their kids,

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:09.080
<v Speaker 1>and that is not the best tradition of the teaching profession.

0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:13.400
<v Speaker 1>Teachers were forced to shift their lesson plans online abruptly

0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:17.120
<v Speaker 1>when lockdowns were imposed last year. According to the Economic

0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:20.520
<v Speaker 1>Policy Institute, a third of surveyed educators felt that the

0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:24.480
<v Speaker 1>training they received for online learning was not useful. We

0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.880
<v Speaker 1>can understand and help our teachers use technology in in

0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:32.120
<v Speaker 1>more fulsome ways and more effective ways, and we can

0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:36.400
<v Speaker 1>take leadership at the federal level around broadband and device ubiquity.

0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:40.880
<v Speaker 1>That's former Education Secretary Margaret Spellings. Access to devices and

0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:46.080
<v Speaker 1>consistent internet also deepened longstanding racial and economic disparities in students.

0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:50.400
<v Speaker 1>Here's Robin Hood Foundation CEO Westmore. You know when when

0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:53.520
<v Speaker 1>when schools closed? And in New York City alone, you

0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:56.520
<v Speaker 1>know three hundred thou school children lacked access to devices.

0:16:56.840 --> 0:16:59.680
<v Speaker 1>Under the one point nine trillion dollar stiments, planned colleges

0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:03.720
<v Speaker 1>and higher education institutions would get almost forty billion dollars

0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:08.639
<v Speaker 1>towards financial aid grants for students. Again, Margaret Spellings, we

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.639
<v Speaker 1>have just wide variety from gigantic little cities in our

0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:17.080
<v Speaker 1>flagship universities to you know, very customized learning at smaller

0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:20.639
<v Speaker 1>liberal arts colleges or hbc U S or m s

0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:24.320
<v Speaker 1>I S, etcetera. And so yes, they're all under strain,

0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.960
<v Speaker 1>they're all under financial challenge. Randy Weingarten has become the

0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.760
<v Speaker 1>face of teachers unions in the United States, having served

0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:33.720
<v Speaker 1>as president of the American Federation of Teachers for over

0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:36.879
<v Speaker 1>twenty years. So we asked her straight up, is it

0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:40.320
<v Speaker 1>the unions who are keeping our school children out of classrooms?

0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:45.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, we did a poll in February early February

0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:49.359
<v Speaker 1>UM and asked our members if we got what the

0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:52.119
<v Speaker 1>a f T had been proposing for a long time

0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:55.880
<v Speaker 1>and then layered on with with vaccines, meaning if we

0:17:55.880 --> 0:17:59.720
<v Speaker 1>were able to have the mitigation strategies that CDC says

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:03.320
<v Speaker 1>is important. That is also important in all of these

0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.280
<v Speaker 1>new studies that show that kids can go back, if

0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 1>we had the testing like the NFL had, so that

0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:12.199
<v Speaker 1>you can not only reopen, but stay open because you

0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:16.000
<v Speaker 1>were managing and seeing a symptomatic spread, which is what

0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 1>is most of the spread here. And if we have

0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:24.520
<v Speaker 1>vaccine access, so mitigation testing and vaccines. A d eight

0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:29.320
<v Speaker 1>percent of my members said that they were willing to

0:18:29.400 --> 0:18:32.600
<v Speaker 1>be in school with a plan like that because they

0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:35.879
<v Speaker 1>know how important it is for kids to be in

0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:39.600
<v Speaker 1>school and do in school learning. So it's always been

0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:43.600
<v Speaker 1>not an either or for us. It's always a both,

0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:47.119
<v Speaker 1>and how do we make school shore that in school

0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:50.840
<v Speaker 1>learning is safe so that we can make it safe

0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:53.840
<v Speaker 1>for everyone. It's a lot safer than it was, though,

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 1>isn't it. I mean, for example, in Cleveland, there's a

0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:59.199
<v Speaker 1>priority given to vaccinations for teachers as it moved a

0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:02.080
<v Speaker 1>long way the direction you get too, because those parents

0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:03.880
<v Speaker 1>are saying, when do we get our kids back into

0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:06.880
<v Speaker 1>the classroom. Yes, it's moved. I mean, I think what

0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:11.680
<v Speaker 1>you've seen is we've learned a lot last September and October.

0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:16.399
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the difficulty, David, was that Trump refused to

0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:19.000
<v Speaker 1>do any of the things that we asked him to do.

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:22.800
<v Speaker 1>That the doctors and the experts told us we needed.

0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:25.440
<v Speaker 1>You know, I tease a lot that I'm so studies

0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:27.960
<v Speaker 1>teacher and a lawyer. I don't even play a scientist

0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:31.000
<v Speaker 1>on TV. I have to listen to the scientists in

0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:34.320
<v Speaker 1>terms of what they tell us we need. And what

0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.440
<v Speaker 1>happened was we asked Trump and Divorce, would you get

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:39.800
<v Speaker 1>us data, would you get us the guidance in a

0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:42.000
<v Speaker 1>in a real and transparent way, and would you get

0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:44.720
<v Speaker 1>us the resources. They basically said no to all of

0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:48.639
<v Speaker 1>it and just created the polarization. But you had districts

0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:51.399
<v Speaker 1>and you now have some of the CDC reports that

0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:55.119
<v Speaker 1>kept on trying different things in the fall. We learned

0:19:55.160 --> 0:19:58.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot from them. Biden, the new president is getting

0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:02.440
<v Speaker 1>us the things we need. This, that the mitigation strategies,

0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:06.240
<v Speaker 1>that resources for them, and that's why you're seeing so

0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:10.720
<v Speaker 1>many districts now reopening, and we now have less than

0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:16.760
<v Speaker 1>less than of districts that are still all virtual. So

0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 1>there's been a sea change in the last I would

0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:22.880
<v Speaker 1>say two or three months, led by New York City

0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:27.239
<v Speaker 1>now Chicago pretty soon l A and and lots of

0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:30.840
<v Speaker 1>small cities in between. That was Randy Weingarten, President of

0:20:30.880 --> 0:20:33.560
<v Speaker 1>the American Federation of Teachers. Coming up, we take a

0:20:33.560 --> 0:20:36.520
<v Speaker 1>look at just how historic this stimulus package really is,

0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:40.280
<v Speaker 1>with special contributor Larry Summers at Harvard and Neil Ferguson

0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:43.440
<v Speaker 1>of the Hoover Institution. That's next on Wall Street Week

0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:50.680
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David

0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:54.760
<v Speaker 1>Weston from Bloomberg Radio. The idea that it's prosperity that

0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:59.080
<v Speaker 1>causes inflation may not have any factual support in history,

0:20:59.800 --> 0:21:03.680
<v Speaker 1>But since when did fact every interfere with Washington policy making?

0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:07.240
<v Speaker 1>That was Lewis Ruckeiser back in January of two thousand one.

0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:10.960
<v Speaker 1>Twenty years later, that debate over what causes inflation is

0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:14.159
<v Speaker 1>dividing economists and policymakers once again in a time of

0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:17.080
<v Speaker 1>easy money and at one point nine trillion dollar infusion

0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:20.280
<v Speaker 1>of support into the economy. We asked economists in Wall

0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:24.520
<v Speaker 1>Street Week special contributor Larry Summers and historian Hoover Institutions

0:21:24.760 --> 0:21:28.000
<v Speaker 1>Neil Ferguson about what we can learn from the history

0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 1>of inflation. Well, I think it's pass of a continuum

0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:38.879
<v Speaker 1>of uh acts by democratic administrations that have expanded the

0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:46.159
<v Speaker 1>role of government in alleviating poverty and economic hardships. So

0:21:46.800 --> 0:21:49.880
<v Speaker 1>you can trace a continuous line if you want, from

0:21:50.680 --> 0:21:53.639
<v Speaker 1>the New Deal through Lyndon Johnson's Great Society to this.

0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:58.120
<v Speaker 1>But there's a difference. This is a very very large

0:21:58.520 --> 0:22:05.040
<v Speaker 1>amounts of money relative to the US economy, and it

0:22:05.160 --> 0:22:09.320
<v Speaker 1>implies very large deficits by the standards of of peacetime.

0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:15.040
<v Speaker 1>Remember the CBO pot last year's deficit close to of

0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:19.240
<v Speaker 1>g d P, and its latest projection for this year's

0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:23.240
<v Speaker 1>is around ten percent. These are very large deficits in

0:22:23.320 --> 0:22:25.560
<v Speaker 1>peace time, and they come at a time when the

0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:29.120
<v Speaker 1>federal debt has reached its highest level since the end

0:22:29.119 --> 0:22:31.840
<v Speaker 1>of World War Two. So I think there is a

0:22:31.960 --> 0:22:35.159
<v Speaker 1>kind of key question here which really has to do

0:22:35.240 --> 0:22:39.840
<v Speaker 1>with the macroeconomic implications of pouring quite a lot of

0:22:39.880 --> 0:22:43.240
<v Speaker 1>fiscal fuel on the fire of an economy that is

0:22:43.280 --> 0:22:47.800
<v Speaker 1>already coming back rapidly from the pandemic thanks to vaccination

0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:51.240
<v Speaker 1>and our our rapid approach of herd immunity. Now I'm

0:22:51.280 --> 0:22:55.560
<v Speaker 1>treading into Larry's mind field of of macro here, so

0:22:55.600 --> 0:22:57.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to step back and let him comment. But

0:22:58.000 --> 0:23:01.040
<v Speaker 1>I do think that the historical significance is is really

0:23:01.119 --> 0:23:04.879
<v Speaker 1>in terms of scale and the timing of such a

0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:08.360
<v Speaker 1>large fiscal stimulus to the economy. So so, Larry, we've

0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:11.240
<v Speaker 1>heard something similar from you in the past. Now that

0:23:11.320 --> 0:23:15.120
<v Speaker 1>we have the bill I really enacted into law, what's

0:23:15.160 --> 0:23:16.800
<v Speaker 1>the best thing that can happen because of this and

0:23:16.840 --> 0:23:18.919
<v Speaker 1>the worst? From an economics point of view, let me

0:23:19.000 --> 0:23:24.560
<v Speaker 1>just say, on the Democratic tradition, there's a thing here.

0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:29.800
<v Speaker 1>The refundable child Credit, which is less than five percent

0:23:29.960 --> 0:23:34.040
<v Speaker 1>of the total stimulus that we're providing this year, will

0:23:34.080 --> 0:23:38.760
<v Speaker 1>almost certainly be continued, and we'll make an immense contribution

0:23:38.840 --> 0:23:42.520
<v Speaker 1>to reducing child poverty in America. And it's a very

0:23:42.680 --> 0:23:48.480
<v Speaker 1>very positive thing and a huge historic achievement. But it's

0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:53.520
<v Speaker 1>five or less of the total stimulus this year, and

0:23:53.600 --> 0:23:58.840
<v Speaker 1>it's something that will continue. I think the decision to

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:04.000
<v Speaker 1>put one point nine trillion dollars of stimulus on top

0:24:04.080 --> 0:24:09.400
<v Speaker 1>of nine hundred and fifty billion dollars of stimulus will

0:24:09.520 --> 0:24:14.119
<v Speaker 1>set the economy on fire, with growth at seven or

0:24:14.280 --> 0:24:19.800
<v Speaker 1>more UH this year, assuming we progress against COVID, and

0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:24.399
<v Speaker 1>I think is playing with fire. A simple view would

0:24:24.400 --> 0:24:27.000
<v Speaker 1>be that I think there's a one third chance that

0:24:27.440 --> 0:24:33.600
<v Speaker 1>the Fed will stay behind UH. The curve, inflation expectations

0:24:33.720 --> 0:24:39.399
<v Speaker 1>will ratchet upwards and will become a inflationary country for

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:45.000
<v Speaker 1>at least a time above the two UH target. UM.

0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:49.680
<v Speaker 1>A second risk is that the Fed will respond. They've

0:24:49.720 --> 0:24:53.439
<v Speaker 1>given all the things they've been saying, their sharp response

0:24:53.560 --> 0:24:57.199
<v Speaker 1>will be unexpected by markets, and as has been the

0:24:57.240 --> 0:24:59.800
<v Speaker 1>case in the past when the Fed has had to

0:25:00.000 --> 0:25:04.439
<v Speaker 1>step in to stop an incipient inflation or incipient bubble,

0:25:04.880 --> 0:25:09.720
<v Speaker 1>it will be a chaotic process with very substantial instability

0:25:09.840 --> 0:25:13.399
<v Speaker 1>and possible recession. And I think there's a one third

0:25:13.520 --> 0:25:17.520
<v Speaker 1>chance that somehow the needle will be threaded and that

0:25:17.600 --> 0:25:23.120
<v Speaker 1>we will UM enjoy a period of very rapid growth

0:25:23.520 --> 0:25:28.479
<v Speaker 1>and there will be a smooth exit back to reasonably rapid,

0:25:29.000 --> 0:25:33.600
<v Speaker 1>reasonable okay UH growth. But I think that we are

0:25:33.680 --> 0:25:40.679
<v Speaker 1>taking very substantial risks, both on the inflation side and

0:25:40.960 --> 0:25:46.120
<v Speaker 1>on the fiscal monetary collision side. That's why, if things

0:25:46.240 --> 0:25:50.320
<v Speaker 1>continue on trend, the interest rate in the first quarter

0:25:50.440 --> 0:25:53.800
<v Speaker 1>of this year will have gone up faster than in

0:25:53.960 --> 0:26:00.639
<v Speaker 1>any year in the last century except for UH nineteen eight.

0:26:01.400 --> 0:26:08.719
<v Speaker 1>That's why you see increasing numbers of indicators pointing UH

0:26:08.760 --> 0:26:16.119
<v Speaker 1>to more rapid inflation, pointing to the development of possible

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:20.920
<v Speaker 1>UH labor labor shortage. Uh so, I think there are

0:26:21.560 --> 0:26:26.640
<v Speaker 1>very substantial risks on the path that we are on. Neil,

0:26:26.680 --> 0:26:29.080
<v Speaker 1>you wrote a piece, a terrific piece for Bluebird Opinion

0:26:29.080 --> 0:26:31.919
<v Speaker 1>actually on the subject of the history of inflation, going

0:26:31.960 --> 0:26:34.680
<v Speaker 1>back to Milton Friedman, what happened the sixties and the seventies.

0:26:34.920 --> 0:26:38.000
<v Speaker 1>I must say, I have youngsters in the newsroom who

0:26:38.040 --> 0:26:39.720
<v Speaker 1>come up to me and say, I wasn't around for

0:26:39.720 --> 0:26:42.200
<v Speaker 1>inflation last time. How does it work? Are we in danger?

0:26:42.560 --> 0:26:44.639
<v Speaker 1>What do you say to those people? Is this in

0:26:44.680 --> 0:26:47.200
<v Speaker 1>any way parallel to what we saw in the sixties

0:26:47.200 --> 0:26:49.679
<v Speaker 1>and the seventies. Well, I think it's worth looking at

0:26:49.680 --> 0:26:53.439
<v Speaker 1>the nine sixties because I suspect younger people have a

0:26:53.480 --> 0:26:57.840
<v Speaker 1>pretty hazy idea of what happened with inflation before they

0:26:57.880 --> 0:27:02.240
<v Speaker 1>were born, and the bit coal view in my experiences, well,

0:27:02.240 --> 0:27:04.720
<v Speaker 1>that was something that happened in the nineteen seventies because

0:27:04.720 --> 0:27:07.679
<v Speaker 1>of the oil shock. That's not quite right, actually, because

0:27:07.760 --> 0:27:10.800
<v Speaker 1>what happened in the sixties was in the first half

0:27:10.840 --> 0:27:15.320
<v Speaker 1>of the decade inflation was low, stayed well below two percent,

0:27:16.160 --> 0:27:18.680
<v Speaker 1>and then in the mid sixties it took two big jumps,

0:27:19.280 --> 0:27:21.600
<v Speaker 1>first up to three percent, then up to six percent.

0:27:21.680 --> 0:27:26.400
<v Speaker 1>And that that was the moment that inflation expectations became unanchored,

0:27:26.400 --> 0:27:29.200
<v Speaker 1>as we would now say. And I think the key

0:27:29.240 --> 0:27:31.760
<v Speaker 1>here is what can we learn from that experience. So

0:27:31.840 --> 0:27:35.600
<v Speaker 1>that was an increase in inflation that predated the seventy

0:27:35.680 --> 0:27:39.119
<v Speaker 1>three events that caused the oil shock, and it's often

0:27:39.200 --> 0:27:41.760
<v Speaker 1>blamed on the stakes by the Federal Reserve. That was

0:27:41.800 --> 0:27:44.400
<v Speaker 1>the view of the late Alan Meltzer in his history

0:27:44.440 --> 0:27:47.119
<v Speaker 1>of the period, and indeed people at the FED at

0:27:47.119 --> 0:27:52.000
<v Speaker 1>the time acknowledged by ninety eight that they got it wrong. Now,

0:27:52.080 --> 0:27:55.320
<v Speaker 1>the monitor's view was that monetary aggregates had been growing

0:27:55.359 --> 0:27:58.080
<v Speaker 1>too fast and that was the reason things went wrong.

0:27:58.880 --> 0:28:00.960
<v Speaker 1>My view as an historian is that that's kind of

0:28:01.000 --> 0:28:05.120
<v Speaker 1>a simplistic view. It's almost tautological to say that inflation

0:28:05.200 --> 0:28:08.200
<v Speaker 1>is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, which was Freedman's view.

0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:11.440
<v Speaker 1>It's partly a fiscal phenomenon. And this is of course

0:28:11.440 --> 0:28:14.399
<v Speaker 1>what Larry has been arguing in his recent commentary that

0:28:14.440 --> 0:28:19.280
<v Speaker 1>if you do really large fiscal deficits that has potentially

0:28:19.280 --> 0:28:23.560
<v Speaker 1>inflationary consequences. But the key is expectations. The FED today

0:28:23.600 --> 0:28:27.040
<v Speaker 1>seems to have a theory that inflation expectations will not

0:28:27.200 --> 0:28:30.399
<v Speaker 1>be affected if there is a temporary bumping inflation in

0:28:30.440 --> 0:28:32.280
<v Speaker 1>the second half of this year or the beginning of

0:28:32.359 --> 0:28:35.440
<v Speaker 1>next year. I don't think that's historically very well founded.

0:28:35.800 --> 0:28:37.920
<v Speaker 1>The lesson of the sixties is that if you do

0:28:38.360 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 1>the great society, if you do butter, and then you

0:28:40.800 --> 0:28:43.960
<v Speaker 1>do guns as well, which was Vietnam, then you can

0:28:44.000 --> 0:28:48.120
<v Speaker 1>get inflation expectations unanchored. And I tried to make the

0:28:48.120 --> 0:28:49.680
<v Speaker 1>point in this piece because I don't want to be

0:28:49.680 --> 0:28:52.400
<v Speaker 1>called in inflation is to a second time. I plead

0:28:52.440 --> 0:28:54.560
<v Speaker 1>guilty to having been more worried than I should have

0:28:54.600 --> 0:28:57.920
<v Speaker 1>been a bad inflation back in twenty I think what

0:28:58.080 --> 0:29:00.320
<v Speaker 1>made the sixties different is that they were using a

0:29:00.360 --> 0:29:03.600
<v Speaker 1>war in Vietnam, and we're really not in any comparable

0:29:03.600 --> 0:29:06.920
<v Speaker 1>military engagement, you know, Afghanistan. Yeah, we're still there, but

0:29:06.960 --> 0:29:09.760
<v Speaker 1>the presence is is tiny. I think what would change

0:29:09.800 --> 0:29:12.680
<v Speaker 1>the game today, and I want to emphasize this point,

0:29:13.080 --> 0:29:15.400
<v Speaker 1>would be if the U. S. And China suddenly got

0:29:15.440 --> 0:29:19.160
<v Speaker 1>into a serious foreign policy crisis over say Taiwan or

0:29:19.160 --> 0:29:22.440
<v Speaker 1>the South China Sea. That historically is the kind of

0:29:22.520 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 1>thing that time and again has caused inflation expectations to jump,

0:29:26.480 --> 0:29:28.520
<v Speaker 1>and I have a chart in the piece which goes

0:29:28.560 --> 0:29:31.560
<v Speaker 1>all the way back to for the UK trying that

0:29:31.680 --> 0:29:35.480
<v Speaker 1>nearly every time inflation expectations in the UK surged it

0:29:35.520 --> 0:29:37.680
<v Speaker 1>was because of a war, and usually a war that

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:40.960
<v Speaker 1>was going wrong. Sorry, as I recall your one third

0:29:40.960 --> 0:29:43.440
<v Speaker 1>one third one third, you had two thirds with inflation

0:29:43.480 --> 0:29:45.400
<v Speaker 1>that something needed to be done about, whether it was

0:29:45.520 --> 0:29:47.800
<v Speaker 1>or not. The first one was it gets out of control.

0:29:48.160 --> 0:29:50.480
<v Speaker 1>The second one was the FED has to act too sharply.

0:29:50.920 --> 0:29:53.000
<v Speaker 1>Is there a way? What is the proper way for

0:29:53.040 --> 0:29:56.080
<v Speaker 1>the FED to manage that? Right now? To avoid those

0:29:56.080 --> 0:30:00.400
<v Speaker 1>two alternatives, I think they need to become much more

0:30:00.440 --> 0:30:06.480
<v Speaker 1>attentive in their rhetoric to the risks of UH inflation

0:30:06.800 --> 0:30:11.280
<v Speaker 1>and the need for action. The FED traditionally makes clear

0:30:11.800 --> 0:30:17.560
<v Speaker 1>that it's going to be preemptive with respect to assuring

0:30:18.560 --> 0:30:23.160
<v Speaker 1>price stability limited inflation. Now the FED is mostly concerned

0:30:23.200 --> 0:30:26.400
<v Speaker 1>with preempting the possibility that it would have to raise

0:30:26.520 --> 0:30:29.960
<v Speaker 1>rates by explaining how if there is inflation, it will

0:30:30.000 --> 0:30:35.120
<v Speaker 1>just be transient UH and so forth, by directing attention

0:30:35.600 --> 0:30:38.760
<v Speaker 1>not just to employment goals, but to employment goals for

0:30:38.880 --> 0:30:44.240
<v Speaker 1>specific UH demographic groups. Thanks to former Treasury secretary in

0:30:44.280 --> 0:30:47.720
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Week special contributor Larry Summers and Hoover Institution

0:30:47.920 --> 0:30:53.080
<v Speaker 1>senior fellow Neil Ferguson Finally, one more thought, what difference

0:30:53.120 --> 0:30:56.680
<v Speaker 1>does the day make here or there? On Wednesday, White

0:30:56.680 --> 0:30:59.320
<v Speaker 1>House Press Secretary Jen Saki insisted that it was the

0:30:59.360 --> 0:31:03.880
<v Speaker 1>forty nine day of the Biden presidency that conveniently made

0:31:03.880 --> 0:31:06.880
<v Speaker 1>the president's prime time address the next day fall exactly

0:31:07.000 --> 0:31:09.960
<v Speaker 1>halfway into his first one hundred days, a time that

0:31:10.040 --> 0:31:12.080
<v Speaker 1>he said as a milestone for getting a lot done,

0:31:12.160 --> 0:31:17.080
<v Speaker 1>including getting one hundred million Americans vaccinated. Axios actually has

0:31:17.080 --> 0:31:18.920
<v Speaker 1>picked up on it. They noted that whether it was

0:31:18.960 --> 0:31:22.120
<v Speaker 1>really forty nine or fifty days, depending on whether you

0:31:22.200 --> 0:31:25.080
<v Speaker 1>counted his inauguration day as his first day in office,

0:31:25.560 --> 0:31:28.520
<v Speaker 1>a dimly echoed that early dispute, remember it, between the

0:31:28.560 --> 0:31:31.240
<v Speaker 1>Trump White House and the Press Corps over how many

0:31:31.240 --> 0:31:35.400
<v Speaker 1>people really attended President Trump's two thousand sixteen inauguration. But

0:31:35.480 --> 0:31:38.840
<v Speaker 1>whether it was forty nine or fifty or even fifty

0:31:38.880 --> 0:31:41.920
<v Speaker 1>one days, no one can deny that the Biden administration

0:31:41.920 --> 0:31:45.000
<v Speaker 1>has done something bigger and faster than just about anybody

0:31:45.040 --> 0:31:48.000
<v Speaker 1>could have predicted. Something on the order of President Obama's

0:31:48.000 --> 0:31:50.560
<v Speaker 1>stimulus plan to pull us out of the Great Financial Crisis,

0:31:50.680 --> 0:31:54.240
<v Speaker 1>or even even President Roosevelt's New Deal package to pull

0:31:54.280 --> 0:31:57.720
<v Speaker 1>us out of the Great Depression. History will judge the consequences,

0:31:58.040 --> 0:32:01.600
<v Speaker 1>but will likely forget the exact timeline, just as it's

0:32:01.600 --> 0:32:05.600
<v Speaker 1>a long forgotten that FDR's first one hundred days radio address,

0:32:05.640 --> 0:32:09.200
<v Speaker 1>well it actually happened on day one forty three of

0:32:09.280 --> 0:32:12.000
<v Speaker 1>his administration. That does it for this episode of Wall

0:32:12.040 --> 0:32:14.800
<v Speaker 1>Street Week, I'm David Weston. This is Bloomberg. See you

0:32:14.840 --> 0:32:16.080
<v Speaker 1>next week.