WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: September 2, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:05.600 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.280 day Break for Friday, September two two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:09.480 --> 0:00:13.240 global bond slump into a bear market. Investors brace for 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:16.840 the August jobs report. President Biden takes a McDonald Trump 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:19.720 and his supporters in a primetime speech, and we'll tell 0:00:19.760 --> 0:00:23.040 you which chipmaker is bucking the trend with a strong forecast. 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:26.480 A former New York police officer receives the longest sentence 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.360 yet in the January six Capital of Riot Plus. The 0:00:29.360 --> 0:00:33.120 CDC signs off on new COVID booster shops. I'm Michael Blah. 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:36.159 What we're ahead, I'm John stash Howard. Sports. The Mets 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:38.320 meet the Dodgers, the Yankees to get a big series 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:41.159 tonight at Tampa Bay. And Serena Williams play tonight at 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:46.680 the US Open. That's all's trading ahead on Bloomberg day 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:51.600 Break on Bloomberg eleven, Free on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:55.840 d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:59.680 San Francisco, Sirius XM one nine Team and around the 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:03.640 world Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and Bloomberg Business Ship. 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:11.240 Good Friday morning. I'm Any Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:14.920 US futures are little change this morning, where coming up 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:16.479 to five o one on Wall Street, and we check 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:18.920 the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:22.039 Bloomberg and again futures little change. The ten year Treasury 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.560 that will changed as well. The yield is at three 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:26.759 point to five percent, and they yield on the two 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.160 year three point five zero percent. Nine X screwed oil 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:32.759 is up two point nine percent or two dollars fifty 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:35.400 five cents at eighty nine dollars sixteen cents of barrel 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:39.880 Bitcoin this morning at twenty thousand, ninety dollars. Amy, Well, Karen, 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:42.600 We begin with some stability in the equity markets this 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.080 morning as we close out the trading week. D S 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:48.200 and P five hundred in Dow Jones Industrial Average both 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:51.680 snapped four day losing streaks yesterday. Still, we are in 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:55.160 a traditionally tough period for stocks. The SNP has average 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:57.520 declines of six and seven tenths of a percent for 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:01.240 August and September over the past five years. Liz Young 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:05.600 is head of investment Strategy at Sophie going into the 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:09.760 end of August, and now we've started September. Next week, 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:12.799 everybody sort of comes back into the fold, and that's 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:15.200 when I would expect volatility to kick back up again. 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:17.639 We're certainly not out of the woods. I don't think 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:20.040 that we're going to get out of a trading range 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.520 for a while and until we at least hear that 0:02:22.560 --> 0:02:26.639 inflation has cooled so fis Liz Young puts the odds 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:30.920 at fifty fifty four recession next year. Meantime, maybe global 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:34.000 bonds have slumped into their first bear market in a generation. 0:02:34.120 --> 0:02:37.560 The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index of government and 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:40.519 investment grade corporate bonds has following more than twenty first 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.320 cent from its peak last year. Officials from the US 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:46.400 to Europe have hammered home the importance of higher interest rates, 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.400 building on a hawkish message from Fed share J. Powell 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:52.880 at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. The direction of 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:55.760 today's bonded equity markets may be determined in about three 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:57.960 and a half hours. That's when we get the US 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:01.240 jobs report for August that kind mists forecast a gain 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:05.040 of two thousand jobs. We get a preview from Bloomberg's 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:07.799 Michael Thankee, the jobs data are something of a one 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:11.080 way bet for Wall Street. If the number is surprisingly high, 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:13.640 as it was last month, it probably locks in a 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:15.959 FED rate hike of seventy five basis points at the 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:20.080 next meeting. A weaker than expected report won't necessarily guarantee 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:23.000 only a fifty basis point move. A big increase in 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:26.679 consumer prices. Data yet to come could change views. After 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:30.200 financial conditions loosened in August. Payrolls may give a little 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:33.240 more clarity on how much impact the FEDS tightening has 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:37.000 already had watched the changes in the unemployment and participation 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:39.640 rates and in the number of people who lost their 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:43.600 jobs during the month. Michael McKey, Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:46.280 Thank you, Mike, and please stick with Bloomberg Radio and 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:49.800 Television all morning for full coverage of the August jobs report, 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:53.000 and join us at Wall Street time. We'll speak live 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:56.680 with Labor Secretary Marty walah Well. Investors look for US 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:59.600 slowdown in jobs amy Inflation is still front and center 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:02.880 for the At Atlanta, Fan president Raphael Bostage says the 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:07.120 US Central Banks campaign to cool inflation is still not complete. 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:09.480 He told students to Georgia Tech. The current pace of 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.480 inflation was a long way from the fed stupor sent goal. 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:18.160 Another major story we're following this morning, President Biden taking 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:21.719 aim at Donald Trump and so called mega Republicans. Last night, 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:25.240 in a primetime address, the President urged Americans to reject 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:28.880 any Trump backed candidate in the November midterm elections. Too 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:32.960 much of what's happening in our country today is not normal. 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:38.839 Donald Trump and the marga Republicans representative extremism that threatens 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:43.400 the very foundations of our republic. As President Biden takes 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:47.320 him on Donald Trump's ideology, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:51.039 is calling on Biden to apologize for invoking fascism when 0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:55.400 describing the former president. In the past two years, Joe 0:04:55.480 --> 0:05:00.200 Biden has launched an assault on the soul of America. 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:04.960 McCarthy made his remarks before President Biden's speech. So what's 0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:08.240 the potential impact from President Biden's primetime speech? Amy While 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.719 Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis as the President is trying 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:15.440 to create a wedge between mainstream Republicans and those who 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:20.320 embrace them make America Great Again ideology, This kind of 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:23.600 you know, sort of setting up the wedge, you know, independence, 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:26.200 don't be drawn into that Republican party. These are run 0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:28.719 by MAGA And what he's trying to do is probably 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:31.920 go that he got in a general election two years ago, 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:36.440 and he needs that to show up on the midterms. 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:40.599 And Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis said President Biden traditionally 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:44.160 tends to avoid wedge politics, as seen by his partisan 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:48.280 legislative accomplishments over the past few months. Now, let's turn 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.239 from politics to corporate America, where we have a couple 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:54.680 of changes in the c suite. Starbucks has named Record 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:58.680 ben Keys their chief executive Lacksman Narrasment to be its 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:02.480 next CEO. Wisman is a veteran of the consumer industry, 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:06.000 and he'll joins Starbucks next month while longtime leader Howard 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:11.600 Schult stays in charge. Narisman will fully take over in April. Meantime, 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:15.440 Shall is shortlisted candidates to succeed CEO Ben van der Buren. 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:19.119 He is preparing to step down in three after almost 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:23.080 a decade at the oil giant. Reuter says. Candidates include 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:26.840 While Sawan, the company's head of integrated Gas and Renewables, 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:29.719 as well as hibert v g v No, the head 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:33.640 of downstream refining operations. And now let's check out some 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.320 stocks on the move this morning. Shares Broadcom or up 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:38.960 more than two percent. The chip maker gave a strong 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:42.920 sales forecast for the current quarter. The outlook suggests Broadcom 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:45.880 is sidestepping a broader decline and ship demand at least 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:50.240 for now. Other suppliers, including in video, Intel and Micron Technology, 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:54.359 have predicted a steep sales slowdown, and shares a Lulu 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:57.919 Lemon are up almost ten percent, the maker of athletic attire, 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:00.560 raising its full year outlook. The company's seeks to double 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:03.719 its sales by six by selling more goods to men 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:08.600 and expanding Lulu Lemon's footprint abroad. Futures this morning they 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:12.400 are little change, Imax, screwed oil is on the rise, 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:15.480 and straight ahead, we have your latest local headlines, plus 0:07:15.520 --> 0:07:23.440 a check of sports, and this is Bloomberg. All right, 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:25.600 thank you, Karen. It's five or seven on Wall Street. 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:27.600 Let's bring in Michael barn Now with more on what 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:30.280 else is going on in New York and around the world. 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.360 Good morning, Michael, Good morning Amy. A stiff sentence was 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:36.240 handed down for a former New York City police officer 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:39.920 convicted of assaulting a police officer during the January sixth 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:45.200 capital attack at the during the riot, Thomas Webster faces 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:48.640 ten years in prison for brutally assaulting a law enforcement 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:52.280 officer on January six It is the longest prison sentence 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:56.320 to date for a defendant during the Capitol riot. Webster 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.720 sobbed in court, saying he wishes he never had gone 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:03.200 to the Capitol. That day, lawyers for the Justice Department 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:05.800 and former President Trump faced off in the Florida court 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:09.640 room over whether there should be a special master assigned 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:13.080 to review top secret documents the FBI sas last month 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:16.600 at Trump's Mara Lago estate. The judge did not issue 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:20.360 an immediate ruling. You and inspectors have braved the cross 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:24.200 fire of Ukraine and Russian forces to get inside Europe's 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.320 largest nuclear plant. The long away to visit to the 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:30.960 Russian occupied facility comes as one of its reactors was 0:08:31.000 --> 0:08:35.160 shut down temporarily due to the fighting. Raphael Grocy is 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:39.520 leading the International Atomic Energy Agency team inspecting the plant. 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:43.880 I have just completed a first tour of the key 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:48.120 areas that we wanted to see in this first approach 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:51.439 to the whole facility. The I A E. A. S. 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:55.360 Raphael Grocy COVID booster shots that are the most common 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:57.920 new variants of the virus should become available in the 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:01.480 US within days. The Center There's were Disease Control and 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:05.760 Prevention signed off on the rollout of updated vaccines. Dr 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:08.160 David AGAs these are the first time has been a 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:10.800 change to the COVID nineteen vaccines since they were launched 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:13.880 in December of twenty and the hope is this booster, 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.040 which includes the B A four and B A five 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:19.200 spike protein as well as the original Ulhunt spike protein, 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:23.080 will cause a broader immune response to enable protection from 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:25.600 the current variants in the United States as well as 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:29.480 future variants. Dr Vegas spoke to CBS the boosters will 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:32.600 will be made by Fiser and rival Molderna. A man 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.400 was arrested in Argentina after pointing a gun at Vice 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:39.720 President Christina Fernandez de Kirchener as she greeted supporters outside 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:42.959 of residents and Buenos Sary's. The incident comes at a 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:46.440 time in which Argentina is bitterly polarized after years of 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:50.120 economic crisis and political in fighting global news twenty four 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:53.520 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:56.360 by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts, are 0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:58.920 more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:04.920 is Bloomberg. Amy, all right, thank you, Michael, five O 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:07.800 nine on Wall Street Time. Now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:10.480 Here's John stash Our. Thanks Amy. A trade of Donovan 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:13.520 Mitchell to the Knicks made perfect sense. The Utah Jazz 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:15.840 were looking to deal their star guard and the Knicks 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:18.600 need a big time player. Mitchell's and New Yorker's father 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:21.079 worked many years for the Mets. Two teams did a 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:23.600 lot of talking. But when the Jazz traded Mitchell, he 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:27.080 went to Cleveland. The Calves gave up Colin Sexton Lauri 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:29.640 Market in three first round draft picks. Good news for 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:32.160 the Mets. Not only there come from behind five to 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:35.360 three win over the MLB leading Dodgers to win the series. 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:38.400 Chris bassonketting the twelve win Mets, winning with two runs 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:40.600 of the sixth inning, two more in the seventh. The 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:44.000 Mets next sixteen games, twenty one of their next twenty 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:47.520 four or all against sub five hundred teams. That starts 0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:50.120 tonight at City Field against Washington and that should help 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:53.000 them hold off Atlanta in the NL East of Brave 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:55.959 Skill three games behind. They shut out Colorado three nothing 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:59.959 for Atlanta rookie Spencer Strider eight scoreless innings, lad On 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:03.080 two hits, no walks, and he struck out sixteen. A 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:06.320 month ago, the Yankees led Tampa Bay by fifteen and 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:09.400 a half games. Their lead is now six, but they 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.520 get swept this weekend. It is down to three. Jam 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.840 leeno Herman faces the race tonight for the third night 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:18.120 this week. It is Serena Williams Night at the US Open. 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:22.560 Serena tonight taking on Alja tom Janovitch from Croatia. She's 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:26.600 ranked forty eight. There'll be another huge pro Serena crowd 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.880 at Arthur S Stadium. Serena and Venus Williams lost their 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.760 first round doubles match last night. Also last night, Raphaela 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:36.959 daw one in four sets. John stash Award Bloomberg Sports, AM, 0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:39.480 all right, thank you, John. Checking the market's now s 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.960 and P futures up to Dell futures up seven NASDAK 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:46.840 futures of four and a half ten year Treasury unchanged 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:50.319 the yield at three point to five the two year 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:54.760 heels at three point four nine percent. Much more still 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:58.360 to come. On this Friday morning on Bloomberg Daybreak, This 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:11.319 is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather today, abundant sunshine 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:13.559 to start your long holiday weekend, going up to eighty 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:17.280 degrees eight five tomorrow nine degrees on Sunday, Labor Day, 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:23.400 a cloudy one flowing up to eight markets, headlines and 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.800 breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.520 the Bloomberg Business Outland at Bloomberg Quick Tape. He's a 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:39.760 Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Onscow and US dont 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:43.199 index futures are little change this morning ahead of a 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:46.880 key US job support that could stir expectations for another 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:49.760 sharp Federal Reserve interest rate hike. We check the markets 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.760 every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg Right now, 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.640 SMP down, nastack futures all little change. The decks in 0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:59.720 Germany is up one and a third percent. Ten your 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:01.719 trade she read down one thirty second you have three 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:03.880 point to five percent. They yield on the two year 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:07.240 three point four nine percent. Nimex screwed oil is up 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:09.480 two point four percent, up two dollars five cents at 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:12.280 eighty eight dollars seventy cents a barrel. Comics gold is 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:14.480 up four tenths per cent, or six dollars forty cents 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:17.600 at seventeen fifteen seventy an ounce. The euro is at 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:20.920 point eight against the dollar, British pound one point one 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.040 five five one, and the yen at one forty point 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:28.280 three three bitcoin. And this morning is Smith's Li'll change 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:31.679 at twenty thousand, eighty dollars in the August jobs report 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:34.240 at an eight thirty Wall Street time, factory orders and 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:37.640 durable goods orders around of ten. That's a Bloomberg business flash. 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:39.720 Now here's Michael Barr with more on what's going on 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:42.680 around the world. Michael, good morning, Good morning Karen. President 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.880 Joe Biden stepped up attacks on former President Trump and 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:50.320 GOP lawmakers during his prime time speech by mccues Trump 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:54.559 and his supporters of endangering US democracy. The US called 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:58.160 around response to the latest effort to revive the nuclear 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:02.760 accord not construct active, raising questions about whether the two 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:05.480 sides can reach a deal that would free more oil 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:09.120 for Global Markets. At the US Open, Serena and Venus 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:13.240 Williams were eliminated after losing their doubles match. Serena Williams 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:16.360 will play tonight in the third round of singles. In baseball, 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:20.680 the Mets, Red Sox and Orioles one the Nationals. BTA 0:14:21.080 --> 0:14:24.520 seven five Global News twenty four hours a day on 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.440 air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:31.120 twenty journalists analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. I'm 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:34.520 Michael bar This is Bloomberg Gaming. All right, Thank you, Michael. 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:36.920 It is five nineteen on Wall Street. We're live from 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:40.720 the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. We're 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:45.360 joined now by senior economist Jennifer Lee at BEMO Capital Markets. Jennifer, 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.000 thank you for taking the time with us on this 0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:49.520 Friday morning. As you know, we're waiting for this critical 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.320 jobs report. It's just a few hours from now. How 0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:55.920 much is writing on this report? Oh, good morning? UM, 0:14:55.960 --> 0:15:01.440 you know what it's Uh, it's always a market moving report, clearly, 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:03.360 but in terms of for the Fed, I think it 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:06.440 holds second place to what is probably more important for 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:10.280 the Federal Reserve and that will be the September CPI report. 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:13.800 Having said that, you know, obviously jobs are are are 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.200 super important just for the health of the overall US 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:20.040 economy and for the consumer. What are you going to 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:24.280 be looking for today? So obviously the headline we're actually 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:28.280 a bit below consensus at two UM. I'm actually very 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:31.680 interested in what happens to the revisions um um. Sometimes 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:33.600 you know, I think we always have missed what happens 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:39.120 behind the scenes. But that's studying five increase in July, UM, 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.320 whatever of the not that is going to hold. And 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:43.960 you know the over three thousand jobs for a few 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:46.560 months before that as well, So revisions for sure, the 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.720 job was great. Our hourly earnings as a measure of 0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:53.720 inflation would be good news if it's if it's pretty solid, 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:57.600 because again good news for consumers, for for household spending, 0:15:58.000 --> 0:15:59.840 but of course bad news for the Fed because it 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:02.120 um suggest that they would have to tighten a bit 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.760 further um and maybe a bit of a bit longer 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.600 as well, depending on how much of the increase will be. 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:10.760 I've heard you talk about that before. A strong number 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:13.440 may be good for the economy, Uh, the FED would 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:16.560 have to keep tightening, though whereas a weak number maybe 0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:19.760 not so delightful. However, the FED maybe not having to 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:23.640 be so aggressive. So then would the bottom line be 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:30.720 maybe higher employment not so bad. Higher employment is always 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:33.880 good for the macro economy. But you know, these days 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:35.880 it's it's so it's so warped off posts that you know, 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:38.480 we're you know, we're we're looking for almost hoping for 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:40.040 us someone. I don't know if I can say that, 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:43.120 but for a weaker figure, just to suggest that the 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:45.120 FED will can kind of breathe a little bit easier 0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:47.400 and have a bit more breathing room. But of course, 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:50.200 you know, nobody wants to see, uh like a very 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:53.400 negative jobs report. So something you know, almost goldilocks is 0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:55.320 you know something you know, like I said, two or 0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:57.440 fifty thous and you know, for our call is is 0:16:57.520 --> 0:16:59.920 still a strong number, but you know it wouldn't be head. 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.160 It is enough for the FED to, you know, for 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:05.679 people to start thinking about, you know, anything bigger than right. 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:07.480 That's a fine line to have to walk. But the 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.919 FED share himself had said that the labor market was imbalanced. 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:14.399 That's how he had described it, imbalanced. Now people do 0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:17.040 seem to be waiting on the sidelines. But the jobs 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:20.400 are out there. I mean, we know that, But when 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:24.320 will things start to loosen up in terms of the 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:27.120 ventures of monetary policy or in terms of the job market. 0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:29.760 I think for the job market, and once people start, um, 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:32.760 I mean, there's still eleven million jobs out there, you know, 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.720 waiting for for for takers. It is, it's crazy, and 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:38.600 you know it's almost um um double the number of 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.840 unemployed Americans, and it's uh, you know, you just need 0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:44.200 to get those people back on, you know, off the sidelines, 0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:46.640 back into the into the job market. You know, people 0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:49.280 have retired early, for example, and you know they might 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:51.119 have to be enticed, you know too, you know with 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:53.520 you know, different types of curates to to be brought 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:56.119 back in. And at some point, you know, you know, 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:58.560 you can't stay off forever, and at some point you're 0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:00.600 gonna have to come in for what of a reason. 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:05.119 But you know, once they'll start those jobs opening start declining, 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:07.199 I think, you know, we'll probably be an indication that 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:08.919 it's you know, that's not as tight as it used 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.520 to be. Now. When we started this interview, you mentioned 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:14.320 that even more important than today's jobs report is the 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:17.640 CPI report coming out in September. Are you already looking 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:21.320 ahead to September and that CPI report. We are, so 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:23.720 you know, we're we're looking I mean, we're I don't 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:25.560 think we're going to go back to that nine point 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:28.640 one UM peak that we saw a couple of months ago. 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:30.679 So the fact that we're just pulled away from that 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:34.160 is is very encouraging news. At the same time, you know, um, 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:37.960 I think inftation is going to remain elevated, like elevated 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:40.920 enough so that the Fed will continue to raise rates 0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:44.200 over the course of the rest of So we're looking 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:47.560 for you know, a fifty basis point hike uh in September, 0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:51.879 um the month after that, and then in December. But 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:53.879 you know, there's if there's a risk it would be 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:56.280 that day tighten a bit more. But again, it all 0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:59.600 it will probably settle on whatever happens to the August 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:04.160 cp Alright, Senior economists Jennifer Lee at BEMO Capital Markets. 0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:06.119 Always a pleasure. Thank you for taking the time with 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:09.119 us on this Friday morning, as we look ahead to 0:19:09.240 --> 0:19:12.080 the August jobs report that is coming out just a 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:15.119 couple of hours from now. We're gonna keep you posted 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.040 with those numbers still ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak, we'll be 0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:21.000 checking the markets and bring you the latest news in business, 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:23.560 economics and finance. Let's do a quick day to check 0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:26.320 for U S and P futures UH down a quarter, 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:30.520 Dow futures down to NASDAC futures down seven, and a 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:33.919 quarter of the ten year treasury down one thirty second, 0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:37.440 the yield at three point to six percent, the two 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:41.560 year yield at three point five percent. Much more still 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:44.440 to come. On this Friday morning edition of Bloomberg Daybreak, 0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:47.280 We're gonna take a closer look at what President Biden 0:19:47.400 --> 0:19:51.280 said about former President Trump in his primetime speech last night, 0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:53.840 some of the reaction to that, and we'll continue to 0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:58.560 look ahead at today today's August jobs report. Much more 0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:00.720 still to come on Bloomberg Daybreaks with us. This is 0:20:00.720 --> 0:20:10.520 Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather. Abundant sunshine today going 0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:14.440 up to eighty degrees, eighty five tomorrow for Sunday, sunshine 0:20:14.440 --> 0:20:17.000 going up to ninety and then eighty degrees on Labor 0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:24.960 Day with Cloudy's Guys, broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive 0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:28.040 Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg e Living Free on 0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:32.800 to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one six 0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:36.080 one to San Francisco, Bloomberg M sixty to the country 0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:39.159 Sirius XM CHADO one nine team and around the globe 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:42.840 the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:52.080 is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty on Wall Street. Good 0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:55.520 Friday morning. I'm Any Morris and I'm Karen Most. Were 0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:58.159 just about four hours away from the open of US trading. 0:20:58.200 --> 0:20:59.679 Let's get you up to date on the news you 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:01.679 need to know at this hour. We begin with some 0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:04.879 stability and equity markets to close the trading week. The 0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:09.040 SNP and DAB both snapping four day losing streaks yesterday. 0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:12.719 Still August in September are traditionally tough months for investors. 0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:17.040 Ther pandit is Global Market Strategist with JP Morgan Asset Management. 0:21:17.359 --> 0:21:19.520 We need to be really careful about how we're looking 0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:22.160 at stocks and very much looking at the bottoms up basis, 0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:26.040 being selective about earnings, being selective about valuations. There are 0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:28.320 still areas of froth in the market that we need 0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:30.320 to to see come down, but a lot of that 0:21:30.359 --> 0:21:32.920 has taken place already, so I do think we don't 0:21:32.920 --> 0:21:36.240 want to be overly defensive or overly cautious JP morgan'st 0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:41.440 Mirra Pandit says investors should be focusing on high quality companies. Meantime, 0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:44.600 global bonds have slumped into their first bear market in 0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:48.679 a generation. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index of 0:21:48.760 --> 0:21:52.080 Government and Investment GREG corporate bonds has fallen more than 0:21:52.960 --> 0:21:56.920 from its peak. The direction of today's bond and equity 0:21:57.080 --> 0:21:59.800 session may be determined by the August two jobs your 0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:02.040 or game even get the reading at eight thirty Wall 0:22:02.119 --> 0:22:06.080 Street time. Nila Richardson is a DPS Chief Economist. I'm 0:22:06.080 --> 0:22:09.880 looking at two hundred and ninety thousand jobs. The key 0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:13.600 numbers to watch within that report is the wage gains, 0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:16.639 because that's what's important to the Fed and whether or 0:22:16.680 --> 0:22:20.119 not the tightness of the labor market is actually leading 0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:23.000 to a wage price spiral that the FED has to 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:26.879 take control. Hey, DPS Nila Richardson says, their softness in 0:22:26.920 --> 0:22:30.000 the labor market and some sectors, specifically those sensitive to 0:22:30.119 --> 0:22:32.800 interest rates. And please do stick with Bloomberg Radio and 0:22:32.800 --> 0:22:35.399 television all morning for full coverage of the August jobs 0:22:35.440 --> 0:22:38.560