WEBVTT - The Return to Office Lie: Why It’s Failing Companies 0:00:03.760 --> 0:00:10.920 Now really, really really hello, and welcome to really know 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:13.600 really with Jason Alexander and Peter Tilden, who remind you 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:15.440 that not only can you work from home, you can 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:17.640 subscribe to our show from the comfort of your home 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:21.639 as well. The pandemic thrust millions of people into remote work, 0:00:21.800 --> 0:00:23.320 and the consensus. 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:24.480 For most of us is we love it. 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:27.520 The reduced commutes, our own bathrooms, muals, we enjoy a 0:00:27.560 --> 0:00:29.920 self determined schedule, and the ability to take a break 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:33.360 when needed with our families and pets is wonderful. So then, 0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:37.280 why are employers increasingly pushing back against remote work, especially 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:40.800 when their biggest corporate complaint, less productivity is a lie? 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:41.200 Really? 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:43.879 No, really, Today Jason and Peter. 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:47.159 Call upon Nick Bloom, co director of the Productivity, Innovation 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:51.440 and Entrepreneurship Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research. 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:56.000 He'll discuss the latest technological innovations created for at homework 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:59.280 and the changing realities that make working from home a 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:00.920 critical part of our economy. 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:02.480 Now Here are. 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:05.559 Two guys whose families beg them not to work from home, 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:10.960 Jason and Peter, Is it not kind. 0:01:10.720 --> 0:01:14.880 Of historically amazing that at the moment this pandemic hit. 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:17.720 We actually had this technology. 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:20.680 I mean, zoom was around before the pandemic, but no 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:22.039 one real video conferencing. 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:23.520 Nobody was using it. 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:25.600 Really to not to the extent that they are now. 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:28.080 And then came bang, this thing hits. 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:31.640 We're trapped in our homes and this lifeline of communication 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:32.880 and business. 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:36.640 We're four years into this work from home phenomenal instance 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:40.720 of COVID right, and they're starting to get feedback about 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:43.319 whether it's successful or not where they should allow people 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:43.880 to stay at home. 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:48.280 As far as productivity, I can I vote? Can I vote? 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:49.960 We're going to have one of the top economies for 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:52.120 this job from Oh can I vote? 0:01:52.160 --> 0:01:53.960 And by the way we do this job, can we 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:56.240 can do remotely? We've been we have. 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:58.000 We did it very successfully. 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:02.560 Why why do I have to be goer to go 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:03.640 to the valley? 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:07.120 You like it, You like it, you like being in 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:08.720 the same room with me to do this. You said 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:13.200 you liked item. But here's the deal. The US economy 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:15.680 is now a work from home economy, with forty two 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:18.360 percent of the labor force full time working for home. 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:21.800 So yeah, and as I said, after four years now, 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:24.960 they've gotten some intel that says, and here's the headline 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:28.360 that got us to go really, no, really, return to 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:33.239 the office is pointless, really no, really, And they've got 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:35.760 stats and studies that say that. Meanwhile, I pulled this 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:40.560 headlines from different important business publications why the golden age remote. 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:41.520 Work may be coming to an end. 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:45.000 Some companies even threaten the fireworkers who don't return to 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:47.359 the office for a certain number of days. The Wall 0:02:47.400 --> 0:02:50.520 Street Journal bosses push back and work from home diehards. 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:53.040 They will need to show up. Manager say, team productivity 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:56.600 has taken a hit. Amazon and Apple joint return to 0:02:56.639 --> 0:03:00.200 the office pushback against remote work, and of course one 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:03.600 of the most famous pushback is Elon Musk. Elon Musk 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:07.400 has said, get off your work from home bulb practibles 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:08.560 and get to work. 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:14.360 So what you're saying is that that productivity and sort 0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:17.359 of the joy of work has been proven to be 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:21.440 much more advantageous when people work from home. But the 0:03:21.480 --> 0:03:24.840 businesses are saying, don't comment research, you're coming in there. 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.560 And we got on one of the top guys because 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:31.560 part of the part of the report and the study 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:35.960 that did is so so damning about why managers want 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:37.280 these people back. 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:38.320 It's a control. 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.680 Things, manage it if somebody's not there. 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:43.240 But there's so many questions about this because it's really 0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:46.120 it's a bit complicated and where the future is heading, 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:50.520 because it impacts how cities are built because people can 0:03:50.560 --> 0:03:52.320 move anywhere out they don't have to be an officer. 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:55.680 They're leaving there. About working from home life. 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:57.640 Balance, I mean, it's a whole different thing when you 0:03:57.680 --> 0:03:59.360 can work from home and answer they don't get your 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:01.560 Amazon packed, or you don't have to hire a babysit 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:04.120 if your dog or your kid, or spend three hours 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:05.240 in the car driving from work. 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:07.840 Well, which takes into account also the cost of what 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:10.920 it takes for most people to have to go to it. 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:14.960 Yes, but on the other hand, this is not in entitlement. 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.159 It's a privilege because the company can say when did you, Hey, 0:04:18.320 --> 0:04:21.440 when did you employees decide, oh, I'm not coming in anymore, 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:24.840 and I have no saying it because we feel and 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:27.120 then some companies actually shove it up there. But this 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:29.440 one made me laugh out loud. I'm almost positive to 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:34.680 zoom it's making their employees come. Yeah, But then again 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:37.159 that could be a tech thing rather than a they're 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:40.279 not zooming there, making sure we can zoom, so I 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:42.720 don't want to be so judgmental there. And I also 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:46.440 saw that mentorship suffers, so I'm dying to ask our guests. 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:50.760 Nick bloom is the William Everley Professor of Economics at Stanford. 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:53.800 He's the co founder of Work from Home Research. Bloomberg 0:04:53.880 --> 0:04:55.960 ranked him is one that it's fifty monst in flunch 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:58.400 on that. So that's when I go, I'm sure if 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:01.200 you look at the ranking now ye for this appearance. 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:03.480 And after this he's going, hold on, I gotta go. 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:05.240 But did I go down to seventy five? If I 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:06.360 was fifty before I did. 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.159 The By the way, he was gonna come. 0:05:08.040 --> 0:05:09.520 In, but he opted to do it. 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:13.479 But this guy was stiffy and the prestigious fresh you 0:05:13.520 --> 0:05:15.320 got the fish metal, really, yes you did. 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:16.160 I was asking. 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:20.359 Who got the fish? He got the fresh, the current 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:23.200 holder of the fresh. But but Professor Reckon give up? 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:25.120 Is it like Miss America? We have to give up 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:26.080 the fish the next year? 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:28.120 A fresh song? 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:33.560 Here it is yah fresh, So we should ask her. 0:05:34.120 --> 0:05:37.520 Professor Nicholas bloom heinick, how are you hey? Good? Good? 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:38.320 Good to be had? 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:40.240 I have to say I've hitten it I've hitting the medal, 0:05:40.279 --> 0:05:41.760 so they can't give it away next year. 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:44.280 Oh you just when people come you don't want it out, 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:45.680 Like the oscars in the. 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:47.120 Bathroom doesn't mean anything to me. 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:50.080 Come on, hey, hey, hey, how did you know it's 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:50.640 in the bosom? 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:53.120 There you go, you're that kind of guy. So you are. 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:57.400 But I saw that your expertise is from work from home. 0:05:57.480 --> 0:05:59.840 And because we are, as I said to the intro, 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:02.560 years into this experiment, we're now starting to get some 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:06.520 metrics about whether it works or not. So we're curious, 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:08.400 where is it. Where are we right now with work 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:10.159 from home? What do we know about it and how 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:11.680 it's working and will it continue? 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:14.320 So yes, it's here to stay. 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:17.440 The other big thing is, look, you don't need to 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:19.680 be in the office every day, but it does help 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:20.920 to come in two or three. 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:22.040 So you know, the. 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:25.599 Pushback is basically against fully remote. Now, if you're week in, 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:28.960 week out, never in the office, it is harder to 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:32.520 mentor harder to innovate, to kind of connect with other 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:34.080 people if you also don't need to be in Monday 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:36.360 to Friday week and week out. So this is kind 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:38.160 of cross wires, to be honest, what I see a 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:40.719 lot of people is Elon Musk is talking about one 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:43.599 thing and some remote advocate talking about another thing, and 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:45.120 they're just talking across each other. 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:49.080 And how did they curiously, how did they measure it? 0:06:49.080 --> 0:06:51.200 Because I got to tell you the BS in all 0:06:51.240 --> 0:06:54.839 of this for me is open floor plan. Who is 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:58.560 that good for? When did open floor plan become Oh, yeah, 0:06:58.560 --> 0:07:01.400 that's great for employees because you'll hang out. I don't 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:04.159 think so. I think that already was an intrusion there is. 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:07.040 I don't want that to be the starting point. 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:08.360 Yeah, you know, it's funny. 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:11.119 I had somebody tell me how they hated the open 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:13.640 plan office. They said, look, the person next to me, 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:18.280 she clips her toenails under the table. She thinks I 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:21.800 don't notice, but I tell you I noticed. I definitely notice, 0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:23.160 and I can't work when I hear. 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:23.840 That clipping sound. 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:26.280 So yeah, look, that's one of the upsides of working 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:28.320 from home. I mean, the big one people talk about 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:31.400 is you don't have to commute. There's a fantastic study, 0:07:31.400 --> 0:07:33.840 one of my favorite research studies that came out in 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:38.720 Science Leading Journal twenty years ago, published by Danny Cammermon 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:42.480 Nobel Prize winner, Ask People evaluated what they like and 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:46.400 least like doing per hour. Favorite activity per hour was 0:07:46.440 --> 0:07:48.880 called intimate relationships, which you. 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.000 Know, you can guess what that's about. 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:51.320 Sure. 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:55.040 Second most hated activity per hour is working where I 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:56.240 have to pay people to do it. 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:57.520 People don't work for free. 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:01.600 Turns out, the most hated activity for Irish commuting. People 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:05.000 absolutely hate commuting. They hate commuting, and so if you 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:06.960 work from home, you save them a commute. 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:07.960 It's about an hour a day. 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:11.280 And secondly, it's peaceful and quiet, and that's why you know, 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:12.560 people like it, but they don't want to do it 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:14.560 every day. You know, it's not like mostly they're on 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:15.920 it every day. They just want two. 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:16.600 Three days a week. 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:20.280 But well, that's interesting because you know, i have such 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:23.480 a small window of references because I've been doing what 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:26.960 I do since i was a teenager. So is that 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:31.120 other than the commute and the cost of it. Do 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:34.640 the workforce not the management for us? The workforce report 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:37.319 that there is also a positive a side for them, 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:39.960 a positive experience from being back in the office, being 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:42.280 back physically with their colleagues. 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:44.480 Yes, I mean, look two things. 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:46.560 One is more than a half of Americans have to 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:48.600 come in every day, so they do jobs that you 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:51.080 just can't do remotely. So in fact, the majority of 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:52.960 jobs and mostly they don't want to. 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:53.520 Go in every day. 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:55.960 But Jason, you're lucky that you're you know, you're happy 0:08:55.960 --> 0:08:58.800 and enjoy going in. We survey people, We serve a 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:01.439 ten thousand Americans month and in fact in the last 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.760 month to be asked them, how is you know, how 0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:06.360 many days a week going in? Is it best for 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:09.839 your physical health and your mental health? Turns out about 0:09:09.840 --> 0:09:12.280 a third of people say they're best going in every day, 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:15.400 about a third say hybrid some days, and a third 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:18.160 say being fully remote. So you know, there is no 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.360 one sized fits or some people find it. You know 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:23.280 me personally, I want to go in maybe three four 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:25.560 days a week. You want some quiet, you want some energy. 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:28.040 Some people find it depressing being at home and some 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:31.040 you know, like the piece and quiet. So in that way, 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:34.560 we're all very different. Actually, so you thrive off energy, 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:36.400 but there are definitely other folks that, you know, like 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:37.640 the tranquility at home. 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:41.800 And is there is there a reliable measurement of actual 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:46.640 productivity in one versus the other, not just what people prefer, 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:48.319 but their actual productiveness. 0:09:49.840 --> 0:09:51.400 Yeah, so there's a number of studies. 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:52.920 You know, I have a paper it's about to come 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:55.160 out in Nature that looks at about one and a 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:58.040 half thousand people working in a tech firm. So for them, 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:00.800 for example, we have lines of code written and in the production, 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:06.320 performance reviews, promotions and sales for that. For hybrid, which 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:08.440 is when they work from home two days a week 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:11.880 Monday Friday, they're about flat. So you know, basically going 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:14.240 in five days a week or working from home Monday 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:17.320 Friday is about the same. You could think, look, you know, 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:19.520 you got more time at home, you save on commute, 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.559 you're less tired, it's quieter. On the other hand, that's 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:23.720 less face to FaceTime. 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:25.240 But it kind of it's a wash. 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:28.959 You see another data when you're fully remote, if you're 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:32.280 working from home five days a week, productivity can be 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:34.280 a bit lower. I mean there's you know, again some 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:36.560 people thriveing to do well, but on average it's maybe 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:37.559 five ten percent down. 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:39.080 How do you measure knowledge? 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:41.280 You got to sign hey, hell, you got to get 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:43.720 your prodition productivity up and you got to solve this 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:46.920 this virus problem by Thursday. How do you do a 0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:49.480 lot of work is mental work? Does that mess up 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:51.480 to hot productivity thing? Is there no way to measure that? 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:53.760 You're right, It's hard to measure. 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:56.680 I mean, look, anyone that you know manages, anyone knows 0:10:56.720 --> 0:10:58.360 it's hard to measure it. Look, you guys are both 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:01.319 in the creative industries. In a sense, I'm an academic. 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:02.680 It's hard to measure this stuff. 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:04.000 So you have. 0:11:04.040 --> 0:11:06.000 Reviews and you look at what people do, and you 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:10.520 interview clients and customers, et cetera. Generally, it's particularly hard 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:13.160 to come up with new ideas remotely because it's as 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:16.240 much easier over lunch of kicking ideas around than it 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:20.240 is over zoom. So that's why, for particularly for knowledge workers, 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:23.920 you probably do want two three days a week interesting. 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:26.360 And mentorship is mentorship done in the in the crapper 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:28.000 because of working from home. 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:29.040 Who's mentoring me? 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:31.240 And nobody's in my bathroom waiting for me to come 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:32.480 in and say, you know what you should be doing? 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:36.320 Yes, you know, I don't know who's in your bathroom, 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:38.240 but I can talk to mentorship more generally. 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:40.120 Yes, it's the big problem. 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:43.000 In the obvious point you point out is to be mentoring, 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:47.040 you need someone being mentor and somebody doing the mentoring 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:48.959 and to be there at the same time. And what 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:51.520 you see is twenty somethings. You know, I teach tons 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:53.680 of students in the early twenties. They all want to 0:11:53.679 --> 0:11:57.400 be in the office for typically days a week. They'll say, look, 0:11:57.720 --> 0:11:59.520 you know, it's so sure I can be mentored or 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:01.480 some im and isn't great. I don't want, you know, 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:03.240 I don't want to be at home every day with 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:07.080 four of us sharing a smaller party. The problem is 0:12:07.120 --> 0:12:09.679 it's the thirty and forty year old managers that are 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:11.880 mentoring them. They're the ones that don't want to come 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:12.440 in as much. 0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:13.000 Got it. 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:15.240 The other part of this, Nick, that I see and 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:17.440 you have to tell us about the evolution of what's 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:20.000 going on because I'm not up on this. The tech, 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:22.960 all of the stuff to make your boss think you're working. 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:26.040 They have mouse movers, automatic apps that move the mouse. 0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:27.080 I love if you don't have that. 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.280 So are you saying that there's a device at the 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:44.640 office that is measuring how much your mouse moves? So 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:48.000 are you saying that there's a device at the office 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:50.520 that is measuring how much your mouse moves? 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:53.040 Okay, so Nick explained to Jason, because he doesn't know 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:56.360 this that if you sign your doctor did you hear 0:12:56.440 --> 0:13:04.160 the it's condescension? Is that the most which means to talk. 0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:08.920 So the fact that once you sign that document they 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:10.760 can want they're watching your keystrokes. 0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:13.959 If you have any winder at the office, what about 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:15.199 the one that you're oh no. 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.000 Owner, Oh no? 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:21.800 Nick Bill Jason in on how bosses and how many 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:28.920 were like you calling him. That's why I think of okay, 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:39.000 Nick professor, Nick professor makes Jason uncontrobed. Could you could 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.840 you explain to Jason how much they can find out 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:42.319 about you? 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.360 So yeah, so let's let's go back. 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:47.920 Let's go back to the dark days of twenty twenty. 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:50.640 In the dark days of twenty twenty, everyone's thrown home. 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:53.920 You're fully remote. It was chaos. A lot of companies 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:57.479 had what will call surveillance software that they're watching keystrokes. 0:13:57.520 --> 0:13:59.920 Some of them they use the camera to take pictures 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.880 of your face, are your eyeble I mean, or screenshots 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:04.199 really really invasive things. 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.160 But it was a you know, it was also backfar totally. 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:10.280 Had a friend of mine, he said his sister worked 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.520 for a big multinational and they were keystraight evaluating, And 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:15.520 she said, whenever she went to take the doll for 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:17.240 a walk, she got her mum just to press the 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:21.320 space bar a few times. It was like ridiculous reworking 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.320 it back out. So what has moved on by twenty 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:24.880 twenty four? 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:26.560 That is basically gone. 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:30.040 It's much more evaluating output. So look, Jason, if you're 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.680 managing me, it's not much use, you know, screenshot me. 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:34.240 I'm just going to take a photo my face and 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:35.560 to shove it in front of the camera. 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:37.840 Yes, said you want to say, Nick, have. 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.360 You done your sales targets, have you written your documents, 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.400 have you met the clients, et cetera. So what I 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:45.480 would call output managed rather than inputs, and once you 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:46.800 move away from it, it works. 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:49.400 But yes, surveillance was a bad, bad period. 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:54.120 It's not. Come on, it's gone, companies, Not really, it. 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:54.960 Has mostly gone. 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.120 It has mostly because of the bad gas, because of 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.040 the backlash of workers saying I hate. 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.320 Because it doesn't really work. Ellnessy doesn't really work. 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:03.760 I mean, look, if you're evaluating me on how many 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:05.840 keys I pressed, you can go onto Amazon and get 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.440 an automatic key keypress and machine that will go to 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.960 twenty four You're like, Nick, my god, the guy's typing 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.000 for twenty four hours a day, seven days a week. 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:14.880 How's he doing it. You're like, that's. 0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:16.360 Amazing, and we're getting nothing. 0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:22.360 Exactly In nineteen ninety five, I bought it off Amazon. 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:25.080 You know, it's like, Wow, that's good to know because 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:27.680 I really for me, it's just what the assumption is. 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:30.360 You know, you're gonna you're gonna shot, you're gonna lie. 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:33.560 You're working for this company, but you're gonna shoat and lie, 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:36.040 so we're gonna monitor you all the time. That's pretty wild. 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:38.160 That's pretty wild. It's good to know that that's diminished. 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.680 In New York on Sixth Avenue in the fifties, that 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:45.120 was that was office building central, and as soon as 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:47.080 the pandemic hit, those buildings were empty. 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:47.960 I go back. 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:49.880 I worked in New York all summer long. This summer, 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:54.120 those buildings are still empty. What is the state of 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:59.440 that infrastructure in a city as metropolitan as New York. 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.360 Sure, so you know it affects anyone that owns apartment buildings, 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:04.600 you know, or your own house. 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:05.240 It affects this. 0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.560 So offices are about half full compared to what they 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:11.240 were pre pandemic, and that looks like that's permanent. I 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:13.040 mean it's been that way since the end of twenty 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:16.680 twenty two. New office building is almost totally ground to 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:18.800 a hole. You do see a few cranes around, it's 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.320 because those things broke round before the pandemic. 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:24.080 It's almost nothing starting. Now, what's the future. 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.200 You're right, there's a lot of empty offices around, particularly 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:29.880 New York at San Francisco, Seattle, because that's where there's 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.440 a lot of tech and finance. Yeah, those things, if 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:35.600 they're old. So if they're built before about nineteen thirty, 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:38.920 they'll probably be converted to residential. Why is that because 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.400 if you look at buildings built before nineteen thirty, there 0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:44.160 is not much electoral there's no electricity. So these are 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:48.120 tall and skinny buildings because any daylight. And they're easy 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.960 to convert because you know, you just put four apartments. 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:51.880 In them and you have some central plumbing. 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:54.920 Sure, if they're built from their sixties onwards, you are 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:58.640 basically screwed because they are massive floor plans, huge kind 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:02.240 of bank based buildings. There's only typically one toilet. There's 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:05.879 nowhere near enough windows to convert that to residential. You 0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:08.000 can't really do it. Wow, those things are going to 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:10.879 lie empty for five ten years and I don't know 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:12.320 what's going to happen to those buildings. 0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:14.679 Yeah, so they didn't figure out They're not They're not 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:16.920 racing like the Chrishman Wakefields and these big companies that 0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:19.440 own them. They're not racing to figure out how repurpose 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:24.960 those I mean gyms, ceramics, studios, workout, workout studios. I 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.879 mean that would that would beg that. But I'm thinking 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:30.119 they're not going to sit for ten years and lose 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.080 all that money and revenue they have. 0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:35.240 They kind of hope, you know, they're hoping for a 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:37.919 hail Mary. A lot of these buildings. To value them 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:41.280 right now is the land minus the scrapping cost, which 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:43.879 tells you, you know, how people read they are the 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.440 industry is fascinating you that are doing really well a 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:48.959 leisure So did you mention gyms? 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:49.399 Gyms? 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:53.119 I thought were absolutely screwed in you know, summer twenty twenty. 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:55.560 I was like, who wants to go indoors to summer 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.360 really sweaty in the middle of the pandemic. Turns out 0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:01.560 they're booming now why because of work from home to 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:04.320 have Another study looking at golf turns out if you're 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:06.879 looking golf playing in twenty nineteen, kind of quiet in 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:09.919 the week, picks up on Saturday Sunday. You look at 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:12.760