Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: Welcome. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington, where it is a
Speaker 2: ghost town. The House and Senate are out. President still
Speaker 2: in San Francisco. He's going in Delaware later tonight for
Speaker 2: the weekend. It's a Thanksgiving feel. Actually, there's a Christmas
Speaker 2: tree across the street from the bureaus. So I don't know.
Speaker 2: Maybe we're just fast forwarding through this whole thing. So
Speaker 2: thanks for being with us, whether you're on the radio,
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Speaker 2: of good stuff we're packing into two hours here, beginning
Speaker 2: with what's happening in Israel on the terminal. The latest
Speaker 2: story that we're following has to do with relief in Gaza.
Speaker 2: Israel says it will allow two diesel tankers per day
Speaker 2: into Gaza to support water and sewage system, prevent an
Speaker 2: outbreak of disease in this This is happening, of course,
Speaker 2: against the backdrop of in many cases, door to door
Speaker 2: fighting with the IDF trying to rid Gaza of Hamas,
Speaker 2: and it brings us to the situation at the hospital
Speaker 2: in Gaza. Now, this has been going on for days.
Speaker 2: We've talked about it here, IDF troops entering the hospital,
Speaker 2: and we even had the Minister of the Economy from
Speaker 2: Israel tell us here on Bloomberg. They believe that a
Speaker 2: Hamas headquarters was below that hospital, and Israel has been
Speaker 2: under a lot of pressure to justify this move. They're
Speaker 2: out with a video now showing a tunnel that they discovered,
Speaker 2: the opening the entry point yes in the hospital, as
Speaker 2: troops try to neutralize this threat and also protect civilians
Speaker 2: and patients inside. The director of the Al Shifa Hospital
Speaker 2: giving us some numbers here, there are still more than
Speaker 2: six hundred and fifty patients, five hundred medical staff, and
Speaker 2: five thousand displaced people all in that hospital. Can you
Speaker 2: imagine what it is like in that building? True also
Speaker 2: do their work there on behalf of the IDF, and
Speaker 2: now that we're seeing video of this tunnel, I can
Speaker 2: only imagine what's happening next. But the wto the World
Speaker 2: Trade Organization says we have a problem here. They've recorded
Speaker 2: at least one hundred and thirty seven attacks on healthcare
Speaker 2: in Gaza, where now nine out of thirty five hospitals
Speaker 2: are partially functioning according to Palestinian health authorities. The rest
Speaker 2: have shut down. And the latest polling that we're seeing
Speaker 2: now from Quinnipiac is quite remarkable. The shift in sentiment
Speaker 2: among Americans over what is happening here in Israel has
Speaker 2: been pronounced over the last month. The university out with
Speaker 2: these numbers showing the number of voters in America sympathizing
Speaker 2: more with Palestinians more with Palestinians increased by double digits
Speaker 2: compared to a survey last month, from thirteen percent to
Speaker 2: twenty four percent. The shift largely driven by respondents under
Speaker 2: thirty five years old. And that's where we start our
Speaker 2: conversation today with Hidar Suskin, the president and CEO for
Speaker 2: the group Americans for Peace Now is with us. Adar,
Speaker 2: I appreciate your time and welcome to Bloomberg. We can
Speaker 2: have a debate here about Israel's motivations and the justification
Speaker 2: it has to wage a war with Hamas. But I'd
Speaker 2: like to talk to you about the effort here to
Speaker 2: save civilian lives. And I wonder what you see as
Speaker 2: the most important thing that happens. Now we've got pauses
Speaker 2: in place, What is next?
Speaker 3: Hi, First of all, thank you for inviting me. I'm
Speaker 3: happy to be here with you today. I think there
Speaker 3: are unfortunately no easy answers in this conversation. There are
Speaker 3: a lot of bad options and a lot of difficult choices,
Speaker 3: and the need to protect civilian lives Israeli and Palestinian
Speaker 3: civilian lives should be paramount for everyone, for Israelis, for Hamas,
Speaker 3: and for the American government. Unfortunately, that's not what we've
Speaker 3: seen much of on the ground, and those losses have
Speaker 3: been massive and tragic on both sides. And I think, again,
Speaker 3: as you said, without getting into the justification for the war,
Speaker 3: which I'm happy to talk about it if you want to,
Speaker 3: there's no doubt that greater precautions and greater careny to
Speaker 3: be taken to protectively in lives. I'm glad to see
Speaker 3: that fuel allowed into Gaza. It will help. It will
Speaker 3: help with the salination plants, so there are clean water
Speaker 3: with electricity, but it represents approximately six or seven percent
Speaker 3: of the daily amount of fuel that was going in
Speaker 3: prior to the war, and it's clearly insufficient for the
Speaker 3: needs of the population there.
Speaker 2: Fuel also means the bakeries can start functioning again, so
Speaker 2: people can get bread. Israel, says Headar, it wants to
Speaker 2: evacuate the Al Shifa hospital. I just ran through some numbers.
Speaker 2: It's larger than some small towns, the number of people
Speaker 2: who are housed there right now, What is the right
Speaker 2: path for Israel when it comes to neutralizing the threat
Speaker 2: below the hospital and protecting the people who are in it.
Speaker 3: It's difficult, and again there's no easy options here. You
Speaker 3: have two truths. One is that Hamas embeds itself in
Speaker 3: civilian populations. Hamas does things like set up headquarters in
Speaker 3: hospitals and schools and other such places. That's an unequivocal truth.
Speaker 3: It's also true that even if they do that, even
Speaker 3: if they commit that act, which is a war crime,
Speaker 3: it doesn't justify the killing of civilians, even if even
Speaker 3: if that is unintentional. Intention has no part in this.
Speaker 3: So Israel is in a very difficult situation. It needs
Speaker 3: to defend itself, and it needs to respond to the
Speaker 3: really horrific attacks that took place on October seventh and
Speaker 3: make sure that Hamas is not able to do something
Speaker 3: like that again. But it also has a moral and
Speaker 3: legal responsibility as well as a political one, to do
Speaker 3: so in a way that minimizes the loss of innocent
Speaker 3: civilian lives and that really honors the sanctity of all life.
Speaker 2: And I know you're referring to both sides in this.
Speaker 2: You wrote an op ed in the Hill the headline
Speaker 2: in Israel and Gaza, I choose the side of humanity,
Speaker 2: realizing that Hamas chooses the other. Is that fair?
Speaker 3: Well? Again, the end of that was not in the headline,
Speaker 3: But yes, look, Hamas has made it clear.
Speaker 2: No, I added that I'm asking you that question based
Speaker 2: on your head Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Hamas has made it clear long before
Speaker 3: October seventh, but certainly with its horrific attack, which is
Speaker 3: a massacre of civilians, a massacre of innocent people, women, children, infants,
Speaker 3: that they don't respect human life, and frankly, the fact
Speaker 3: that they embed themselves among the civilian population in Gaza,
Speaker 3: the fact that they have food and fuel and other materials,
Speaker 3: so that they don't give to the civilian population of
Speaker 3: Gaza makes it clear that they don't have that respect
Speaker 3: for the sanctity of human life. The question that Israel
Speaker 3: face isn't the question that we as leaders in the
Speaker 3: United States face is simply whether we're going to take
Speaker 3: the same position as Hamas or not. And for me,
Speaker 3: part of that point of choosing the side of humanity
Speaker 3: is moving away from what we've seen so much of
Speaker 3: on the quote pro Israel side and pro pro Palestinian side,
Speaker 3: of people just trying to score points for their team,
Speaker 3: people trying to prove that Israelis are all right and
Speaker 3: justice and righteous and just, or Palestinians are all righteous
Speaker 3: and just. This is not that simple, and it's not
Speaker 3: a sporting event where you cheer for your team. These
Speaker 3: are the real lives of real people and incredibly difficult
Speaker 3: questions that don't have easy answers but need to be addressed.
Speaker 2: Does Benjamin Netanya, who respects the lives of Palestinian civilians.
Speaker 3: Look? I think it is unbelievably evident that Benjamin Natona,
Speaker 3: who and his entire government have failed that frankly, was
Speaker 3: clear in many ways before October seventh, but on October seventh,
Speaker 3: it became clear that they failed at what is the
Speaker 3: fundamental function of government, which is protecting the lives of
Speaker 3: its civilians. And his response, what we've seen taking place
Speaker 3: in Gaza since then, as well as what we've seen
Speaker 3: in the West Bank, and frankly, what we saw before
Speaker 3: October seventh is that Benjamin n'atagne who values his own
Speaker 3: political future and that is his priority. He puts that
Speaker 3: ahead of, frankly, the good of the Israeli people and
Speaker 3: certainly the good of the Palestinian people.
Speaker 2: What do you make of the Quinnipiac University poll that
Speaker 2: came out yesterday I mentioned at the top of the
Speaker 2: hour here we are seeing a shift the number of
Speaker 2: voters in America sympathizing more with Palestinians, increasing by double
Speaker 2: digits from the same survey last month. And it's not
Speaker 2: a surprise to see that driven by people under thirty five.
Speaker 2: Those who are old, older, and particularly those over sixty
Speaker 2: five are far more likely to hold the opposite positions,
Speaker 2: and that probably represents lawmakers here in Washington and the
Speaker 2: active voting public a lot more. But was this a
Speaker 2: surprise to you or is something that you expect to
Speaker 2: see continue.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's certainly not a surprise. I think given what
Speaker 3: we are seeing, the images that are coming out of Gaza,
Speaker 3: the stories and the reports that we're hearing, I'm not
Speaker 3: surprised at this at all. I agree with what you
Speaker 3: said that that doesn't reflect certainly not Congress, and frankly
Speaker 3: probably not the majority of voting Americans. You know, these
Speaker 3: polls I often honestly find very problematic and not very
Speaker 3: helpful beyond a broad talking point. Because if you ask me,
Speaker 3: am I pro Israel, I would say yes, I'm an
Speaker 3: Israeli citizen, I am an IDF veteran. If you ask
Speaker 3: me I am I pro Palestinian, I would also say yes.
Speaker 3: I don't think those things can be mutually exclusive. Not
Speaker 3: only that they should didn't be, but they can't be.
Speaker 3: And I say that because this war is going to
Speaker 3: come to an end, not as soon as I would
Speaker 3: like it to, and I don't know when, but it
Speaker 3: will end, and when it does, there will still be
Speaker 3: Israelis there, and when it does, there will still be
Speaker 3: Palestinians there, and those Israelis and those Palestinians have to
Speaker 3: find a better way to live and work together. Going
Speaker 3: to the future. There's literally simply no option. So somebody
Speaker 3: who tells me that they are pro Israel but anti
Speaker 3: Palestinian is not pro Israel, and the same the other
Speaker 3: way around.
Speaker 2: We're spending some time talking with Hadar Suskin, the President's
Speaker 2: CEO of the group Americans for Peace Now, and a
Speaker 2: very important piece of information as a former member of
Speaker 2: the IDF is you just told us what do you
Speaker 2: think your former brothers in arms are going through here
Speaker 2: being asked to carry out incredibly dangerous operations in Gaza.
Speaker 3: Brothers and sisters. First of all, I will say Israel
Speaker 3: certainly is one among the leaders in having integrated in
Speaker 3: terms of gender its armed forces, including its combat forces.
Speaker 3: Look again, I think that the attacks of the seventh
Speaker 3: required a military response. No country would or should allow
Speaker 3: an attack like that on its citizens. A massacre of
Speaker 3: somewhere between twelve and fourteen hundred people two hundred and
Speaker 3: forty or so people take in hostage. So a military
Speaker 3: response sadly was necessary. But that's not a blank check,
Speaker 3: and that doesn't mean any military response is okay. The
Speaker 3: responsibility for that and for what the actions are and
Speaker 3: what the decisions are, of course rests with the political leadership,
Speaker 3: not the day to day soldiers. But tell you, along
Speaker 3: with many friends and many colleagues and acquaintances, I have
Speaker 3: a nephew who is a combat soldier in the IDF
Speaker 3: right now, and they are going through terrible, terrible things.
Speaker 3: And again there's you know, there's no one side to this. Obviously,
Speaker 3: the people of Gaza are suffering unimaginable horrors, but so
Speaker 3: too have the people of Israel, and so too have
Speaker 3: the soldiers of the IDF, many of whom have lost
Speaker 3: their lives in this recent bount of the conflict and
Speaker 3: been injured, and again, like everyone involved, been traumatized.
Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could make some time for us.
Speaker 2: Hdar thank you for being with us. He runs the
Speaker 2: group Americans for Peace Now. Hidar Suskin, we thank you
Speaker 2: for joining.
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Speaker 2: George Santos the congressman from New York, is going to
Speaker 2: hold a news conference. He's scheduled a news conference for
Speaker 2: the Thursday after Thanksgiving, November thirty. Will he resign? I
Speaker 2: can only imagine after the news yesterday the Ethics Committee
Speaker 2: in the House out with its report on Santos. Skating
Speaker 2: is the word the news organizations are going with. And
Speaker 2: my goodness, Santos improperly diverting thousands of dollars, as we
Speaker 2: read from his campaign for personal use everything from botox
Speaker 2: to luxury items. And they're actually going through with this.
Speaker 2: The chair of the Ethics Committee, Michael Gas this is
Speaker 2: a Republican by the way, it's Republican led House has
Speaker 2: done the deed. He filed a privileged resolution to expel
Speaker 2: Santos during today's pro forma session. It's the one piece
Speaker 2: of business that matters today in Washington, and that starts
Speaker 2: the clock ticking, gives you two legislative days to deal
Speaker 2: with this. So next week could be something here, although
Speaker 2: well they've headed home for Thanksgiving, so we might have
Speaker 2: to wait a minute. Back into town here, the news
Speaker 2: conference is going to be well attended. I think we'll
Speaker 2: reassemble our panel for their take on Things, Rick Davis
Speaker 2: and Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. It does look like
Speaker 2: the writing is on the wall here, Genie, Is this
Speaker 2: the end of George Santos's political career?
Speaker 4: It is one way or the other. You know, at
Speaker 4: least this pushed him to announce that he is not
Speaker 4: going to seek reelection. But I do think if they
Speaker 4: go for a vote, he will be expelled at this point.
Speaker 4: But boy, what a horrific, ugly, dirty ending to I
Speaker 4: think maybe, and I wouldn't say this lightly. One of
Speaker 4: the ugliest years in the modern history of Congress. So
Speaker 4: it is quite a way to end the year.
Speaker 3: And you know, you.
Speaker 4: Think about it, not just botox, but what he was
Speaker 4: spending his campaign funds on. At least on Thursday, when
Speaker 4: he holds the press conference, we know he'll be well
Speaker 4: dressed and he'll look good. Joe, so because he's been
Speaker 4: spending an awful lot to shore himself up for that.
Speaker 2: He's got a lot of sweaters, that's for sure. Rick,
Speaker 2: will he resigned before his colleagues have a chance to
Speaker 2: vote him out.
Speaker 5: If he's smart, he will.
Speaker 3: You know, that would certainly.
Speaker 5: Create a little different environment when they get back on
Speaker 5: the twenty eighth of November. As you mentioned, it's not
Speaker 5: often that you get this kind of a resolution by
Speaker 5: the chairman of the Ethics Committee. He's already been tested
Speaker 5: twice on getting votes for his expulsion, maybe third times
Speaker 5: to charm and I think this whole idea of press
Speaker 5: conference on the thirtieth, I mean, he may not be
Speaker 5: a member by the thirtieth of November, so you know,
Speaker 5: I don't know why anybody would show up to hear
Speaker 5: him talk about why he was expelled from Congress. But
Speaker 5: the bottom line is I actually see it as a positive.
Speaker 5: It shows you that the Ethics Committee is working, that
Speaker 5: it's been bipartisan that is actually doing its job, and
Speaker 5: that maybe together Republicans and Democrats can celebrate the fact
Speaker 5: that they can police their own ranks. For a change.
Speaker 5: All we've talked about since Santos was elected is what
Speaker 5: a blight he is on the Republican Party and how
Speaker 5: he makes kind of a joke of the institution. And
Speaker 5: maybe it got to the point where members are going
Speaker 5: to start thinking about their own image of the institution,
Speaker 5: what's good for it for a change. Certainly, as Genie said,
Speaker 5: been a rough year in that regard, but maybe we're
Speaker 5: entering the end of this year in a different tone.
Speaker 2: He'd be the first member expelled since James Traffick hit
Speaker 2: which god, that was back in two thousand and two.
Speaker 2: It's been a long time since this has happened, Genie,
Speaker 2: So beam me up. What do you think does he
Speaker 2: resign before he gets thrown out?
Speaker 4: To Rick's point, if he has any sense, and gosh,
Speaker 4: I'm not sure he does. But if he has any sense,
Speaker 4: he will resign.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 4: The reality is is that the committee and again bipartisan,
Speaker 4: in unanimous, with this scathing report, they didn't even vote
Speaker 4: or go forward with a formal expulsion recommendation because it
Speaker 4: would have extended this ugly chaos into next year. So
Speaker 4: in the interest of getting this over quickly, pulling the
Speaker 4: band aid quickly, they decided not to go in that direction.
Speaker 4: And so it really is something. I mean, Ken Buck,
Speaker 4: the congressman from Colorado, said, George, now is the time
Speaker 4: to resign. Then you have some quiet days over the
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving holidays to clean out your office, and gosh, I
Speaker 4: wish he and hope he is listening to that, but
Speaker 4: again there's no telling what he is thinking. And what
Speaker 4: he's doing. But you know, I think Kathy Holpel, the
Speaker 4: governor of New York's got to get her pen ready.
Speaker 4: If he does resign, She's got days to call for
Speaker 4: a special election, and that is going to be a
Speaker 4: big deal. A lot of candidates in the offing on
Speaker 4: both sides to try to contest for that seat that
Speaker 4: Biden won by eight points that district.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that'll be a riot. No one would be surprised
Speaker 2: if it turned democratic in a state that has been
Speaker 2: pretty kind to Republicans lately. Rick, if this actually happens,
Speaker 2: does it start a conversation about a double standard in
Speaker 2: the Republican Party when it comes to Donald Trump?
Speaker 3: You know, it could.
Speaker 5: There's a lot of sensitivity on both sides of the
Speaker 5: aisle about not jumping ahead of the process. And so
Speaker 5: you know the fact that the Ethics Committee kind of
Speaker 5: plowed the field for the idea of going forward with this,
Speaker 5: even though no one has actually convicted Santos of wrongdoing
Speaker 5: the overwhelming way of the evidence and the expansive report,
Speaker 5: I mean, typically the Ethics Committee only releases like a
Speaker 5: half a pager on their investigation, fifty pages of indictment. Again,
Speaker 5: Representative Santos was presented and it just overwhelmingly indicts him
Speaker 5: on his behavior. So yeah, I think that there will
Speaker 5: be some thought about around the vote, especially are we
Speaker 5: creating a moral equivalency here about Donald Trump? But my
Speaker 5: guess is people are just gonna want to put the
Speaker 5: blinders on and say, like, this is about George Santos
Speaker 5: and we've got to We've got to get him out
Speaker 5: of our institution.
Speaker 2: Do you each have thoughts on what he does here
Speaker 2: other than potentially go to jail if that's where this
Speaker 2: is going with his criminal case? Genie, Does he go
Speaker 2: to reality TV? This country loves a rehabilitation story, right?
Speaker 2: Is he going to be on the talk show circuit?
Speaker 2: What happens?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I can only imagine maybe he'll start a podcast, you know,
Speaker 4: maybe he will go into fashion. I can't even guess
Speaker 4: what he will do next. But gosh, it would be
Speaker 4: great to get him out of politics and.
Speaker 3: Out of the House.
Speaker 4: And nobody wants that more than his constituents in that
Speaker 4: Long Island district. The Republicans are pulling their hair out
Speaker 4: that he has been sitting there wasting their votes for
Speaker 4: two years now, not even on a committee.
Speaker 2: Right, I've only got thirty seconds. Again, Rick, could he
Speaker 2: get a lot of money for a book? Is that
Speaker 2: actually what comes next?
Speaker 5: I think a TV show would be better. I mean
Speaker 5: it'd be part comedy in part drama.
Speaker 2: And fashion. Apparently, Rick Davis Genie Shanzano have some final
Speaker 2: thoughts with us straight ahead. This is really happening. George
Speaker 2: Santos read about it. We've got a great story on
Speaker 2: the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com if you want
Speaker 2: to understand the charges and what was inside that ethics report.
Speaker 2: It's a reader. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 2: We're listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts. As
Speaker 2: we consider our station in life here going into the
Speaker 2: Thanksgiving break and what was done this week, what was
Speaker 2: actually accomplished and what has yet to be done. It's
Speaker 2: a much longer list on the other side here, and
Speaker 2: that's where we're going to begin our conversation with Mark
Speaker 2: short I just rattled through his business card. It's a
Speaker 2: long one, as he straddles both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Speaker 2: This is the insider conversation that I was promising for
Speaker 2: head of the Republican Conference in the House, former chief
Speaker 2: of Staff to Vice President Mike Penn's great.
Speaker 6: To see you, sir, Thanks thanks for having me on.
Speaker 2: Absolutely so we have waited a shutdown. We could take
Speaker 2: a minute to celebrate that. Right, we're not shutting down
Speaker 2: this week. Everybody would have been freaking out right now
Speaker 2: and planning to work over the weekend in any other world.
Speaker 6: That's right, and I think we'll probably avoid another one
Speaker 6: come January and February. But it does at least extend
Speaker 6: it for a couple of months, as opposed to all
Speaker 6: the way through the next fiscal year. But I think
Speaker 6: that House Republicans seemed to be coming to acceptance that
Speaker 6: they don't control the Senate or the White House, and
Speaker 6: so their negotiate and leverage here isn't quite the same.
Speaker 6: It is I think somewhat ironic, Joe that the deal
Speaker 6: that Kevin McCarthy negotiated just a few weeks back that
Speaker 6: he ended up getting removed from a speakership for actually
Speaker 6: had sixty billion dollars less than spending than this CR does. So,
Speaker 6: you know, for all those members who were claiming that
Speaker 6: they were fighting for principle on fiscal sanity, I think
Speaker 6: it's it's been clearly exposed early. It's more of a
Speaker 6: personal problem with Kevin for them than it was really
Speaker 6: over policy.
Speaker 2: Well, I know some members are getting a little annoyed already.
Speaker 2: We're hearing Chip Royce. He's got two strikes against him already.
Speaker 2: Should they have fixed that motion of vacate before you
Speaker 2: already answered? My next question is you don't think we're
Speaker 2: going to shut down in January? That probably means though
Speaker 2: he's got to work with Democrats again, So is he
Speaker 2: going to run into the same trouble as his predecessor again?
Speaker 6: I think the reality is that the Republics are going
Speaker 6: to have to work with Democrats because they controlled the
Speaker 6: Senate and the White House, and so whether it's inside
Speaker 6: the House conference, I think I think the old position
Speaker 6: always was the stronger bill you can get out of,
Speaker 6: the more negotiating leverage you have. But I think there's
Speaker 6: some conservatives I think coup on principle, take a position
Speaker 6: that they will never vote for CR and that Congress
Speaker 6: should do its job and pass appropriations bills. Then margin
Speaker 6: is so narrow that that means that you're never going
Speaker 6: to anything but ACR right now, because you're going to
Speaker 6: have to work with Democrats to get one pass out
Speaker 6: of the House.
Speaker 2: So the idea of regular order by whatever it is
Speaker 2: February second, that's not what we're talking about here. You
Speaker 2: think there might be another stop gap, It wouldn't be
Speaker 2: a year long, right that would that would be the
Speaker 2: end of the speaker.
Speaker 6: I'm assuming, well, I do think they'll get it. You'll
Speaker 6: get a CR that'll finish to the rest of the
Speaker 6: fiscal year. I'm not sure that the Republicans are in
Speaker 6: a position right now, having gone through the exercise with Kevin,
Speaker 6: that they want to remove another speaker, So I do
Speaker 6: think that that's what'll end up. I think at the
Speaker 6: same time, there'll be appropriations bills put forward in the
Speaker 6: House that try to pass. I'm skeptical that they'll actually
Speaker 6: get all twelve done, So I think you end up
Speaker 6: with another CR.
Speaker 2: Yes, I want to ask you, of course, about the
Speaker 2: rest of the job here. It's not just funny the government,
Speaker 2: but the supplemental by request Israel, Ukraine, we talk about
Speaker 2: it every day, and there's no real path here, though
Speaker 2: we've had we've had members of the Senate tell us
Speaker 2: they think they might actually be able to get this
Speaker 2: over the finish line in December and not prolong a
Speaker 2: weight into next year. Are they speaking a different language
Speaker 2: still than the House on this?
Speaker 6: I think that I'm probably optimistic as well that inevitably
Speaker 6: they'll be funding for Ukraine and Israel, but I'm probably
Speaker 6: thinking that won't be a standalone bill. I think that's
Speaker 6: probably something that comes forward combined with the CR in
Speaker 6: January of February, because at that point, if you've if
Speaker 6: you're accepting the conversation you and I already having that
Speaker 6: inevitably you're gonna need a bipartisan c our bill. Then
Speaker 6: I think the Senate will have more leverage at that
Speaker 6: point to go out and attach the additional sulflemental funding
Speaker 6: because because Johnson's not able to get a Republican only
Speaker 6: build out of the House, so you're gonna have to
Speaker 6: do something to buy Partison anyhow, So at that point
Speaker 6: it makes more sense to attach.
Speaker 2: That funding hinging on an agreement some breakthrough that we've
Speaker 2: waited decades for on border security? Is that fair?
Speaker 6: You know, I'm probably less optimistic on the border security funding.
Speaker 6: I think that a lot of Republicans are anxious to
Speaker 6: see that. But I think, as Ron De Santis said
Speaker 6: from the debate stage a few weeks back, the reality
Speaker 6: is with the Biden administrations proposing in border security funding
Speaker 6: is really just more funding to facilitate more asylum processing
Speaker 6: and to actually allow more refugees into the United States.
Speaker 6: And I don't think that's really what Republicans are looking for.
Speaker 6: They want they want bricks and work. They want to
Speaker 6: change on wall, right, So that's probably less optimistic on
Speaker 6: the border security inter piece of it.
Speaker 2: Boy, I have to ask you about this. We're just
Speaker 2: talking about George Santos. It's an interesting scenario here because
Speaker 2: of an election in Utah. It might actually be a wash.
Speaker 2: If George Santos has expelled, the Republican majority remains the same.
Speaker 2: I don't know if that matters to you. Do you
Speaker 2: think he resigns before he's expelled? Do you think the
Speaker 2: votes are there to expel.
Speaker 6: Well, first, I don't think it's a wash because I
Speaker 6: think the Utah seat is pretty much guaranteed to be
Speaker 6: a Republican seat. So the reality is we're going to
Speaker 6: pick up that seat regardless, and I think that you're
Speaker 6: going to be down one more member when either he's
Speaker 6: expelled or he is or he does resign. I don't
Speaker 6: I don't pretend to know what's in his head is
Speaker 6: what he's he's going to do. I think he's gonna
Speaker 6: do whatever gets them in the most press attention.
Speaker 2: Called a news conference for November three.
Speaker 6: I could see him coming back and having a press
Speaker 6: conference and uh, but ultimately pulling out right before the
Speaker 6: vote if he feels like he's gonna lose the hell.
Speaker 2: So he's probably taking a temperature and seeing where I
Speaker 2: think he is, probably comes together over Thanksgiving. Does the
Speaker 2: conference want him out?
Speaker 6: I think the conference, well, I think they're competing interest.
Speaker 6: I think for a lot of members they probably do
Speaker 6: want him out. At the same time, we've talked about
Speaker 6: how narrow the majority is. It's not like they can
Speaker 6: really afford additional seats, and and I think you're seeing
Speaker 6: more and more announcements to retirements, and some of those
Speaker 6: people may not wait till next November, so that that
Speaker 6: majority could even get even smaller, which is why I
Speaker 6: think a lot of Republicans would probably want to say, like,
Speaker 6: we just see he's announced he's not gonna run again.
Speaker 6: Let's get to to next November. But I don't think
Speaker 6: that that's going to last. I think he'll probably be
Speaker 6: pushed out sooner.
Speaker 2: Why what a story that we won't be able to
Speaker 2: say that the latest since James traffickant anymore if this
Speaker 2: actually happens. Spending time with Mark Short, I have to
Speaker 2: ask you about the campaign trail. The former vice president
Speaker 2: is no longer running, and we're seeing a surge here,
Speaker 2: it seems for Nicky Haley's campaign. Are those associated somehow?
Speaker 6: I'm not so convinced they are, And I'm actually I
Speaker 6: think there's been a surge in the press coverage and
Speaker 6: a surge and donor support for Nicki Haley, which is
Speaker 6: not in consequence of Joe. Those are very important things
Speaker 6: that you need. But at the same time, you've seen
Speaker 6: actually former President Trump's numbers go up into the sixties.
Speaker 1: Yeah, how about that?
Speaker 6: And so even though there's maybe a small boost for
Speaker 6: Nicki or a small boost for DeSantis or even Chris
Speaker 6: Christy in New Hampshire, the reality is that is that
Speaker 6: Donald Trump is leading the field by forty to fifty points, well.
Speaker 2: We've got a Monmouth pole now, yet I remembers some
Speaker 2: pole the other day show Nicki Haley vaulting into second place,
Speaker 2: Hampshire rondesstant Is falling to four. It does seem like
Speaker 2: there is a bit of a shift in the so
Speaker 2: called race for second.
Speaker 6: There are changing places in the race for second, but
Speaker 6: the delta between where that is and where Donald Trump
Speaker 6: is remains the sensitive.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, but it's also not lost on me that the
Speaker 2: only other voice on the debate stage with foreign policy
Speaker 2: experience has left, and that suddenly makes Nicky Haley unique
Speaker 2: in the field.
Speaker 6: I think it does create a separation for in the debate,
Speaker 6: which is important. I think anytime you're in a crowded field,
Speaker 6: you want to have something that segments the market and
Speaker 6: differentiates yourself. And I think that with everything going on
Speaker 6: in the Middle East right now, it does give her.
Speaker 3: A much bigger platform to speak from. At this moment.
Speaker 2: This is not a race, though different than other cycles,
Speaker 2: not a race for vice president right Donald Trump doesn't
Speaker 2: want any of them, and it doesn't seem they want
Speaker 2: to be with him, isn't that.
Speaker 6: I think that people's ambitions are such that what they
Speaker 6: might proclaimed during the camp trail that they may be
Speaker 6: more willing to serve in that role. And I think
Speaker 6: you may also see that the former president Trump is
Speaker 6: more willing to extend that offer if he feels like
Speaker 6: it's advantageous to him. So I wouldn't I wouldn't ruin
Speaker 6: any of them out yet to be to be a
Speaker 6: vice presidential pick Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Nikkiy Haley, I mean she worked for him. She brings
Speaker 2: the foreign policy experience and apparently a slightly different base
Speaker 2: of support. I suppose anything is possible, but there'd be
Speaker 2: a lot of tape to play back up.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't want to pretend that she's running for
Speaker 6: that at this point. I think she is running for president.
Speaker 6: I do think that the president, former president is has
Speaker 6: pointed many times how she made a pledge that she
Speaker 6: would never run against him, and yet she did. And
Speaker 6: so I'm not I'm not I want to. I don't
Speaker 6: want any way to predict that that's where we're gonna
Speaker 6: end up. Sure, but I do think that people's ambitions
Speaker 6: are such that their stated principles can be somewhat more flexible.
Speaker 2: Well, I'd love to hear from you a little bit
Speaker 2: more about your former boss, and I'm sure that you
Speaker 2: still talk to Mike Pence he had support him or not.
Speaker 2: Kind of a unique spot on that stage, and I
Speaker 2: wonder to what effect he might be able to help
Speaker 2: affect the outcome of this campaign, whether he's going to
Speaker 2: reserve that until later, or maybe this is just a
Speaker 2: completely different chapter as you go back in the media,
Speaker 2: What do you see in the future for him.
Speaker 6: I think he's gonna have a lot of different opportunities Joe.
Speaker 6: Right now. I don't think that he's in a hurry
Speaker 6: to endorse in this race. I think he needs to
Speaker 6: play out some but I think he had the opportunity
Speaker 6: on the stage to talk about concerns he has about
Speaker 6: where our party is going in candily, where the conservative
Speaker 6: movement is going in many cases, I think walking away
Speaker 6: from his time honor principles of limited government in pursuit
Speaker 6: of a more populist appeal in many ways, walking away
Speaker 6: from our alliances and partnerships with democracies across the globe
Speaker 6: and wanting to retreat and be more of an appeasing
Speaker 6: isolationist approach. And so he was able to make those points.
Speaker 6: I think you're going to continue to here and make
Speaker 6: those points in the future.
Speaker 2: Is he glad he ran oh?
Speaker 6: I think he felt he felt like it was a
Speaker 6: blessing to get to spend so much time with voters
Speaker 6: in Iowa New Hampshire, and I think he was grateful
Speaker 6: that he had a chance to make those points on
Speaker 6: the stage.
Speaker 2: It's really something when you consider his career, particularly at
Speaker 2: the end of the Trump administration, is involvedment in January
Speaker 2: sixth and the voice that he had, which is why
Speaker 2: I'm curious to see what it might become, because I
Speaker 2: feel like he's probably not done here. But this is
Speaker 2: a pretty complex time you're going to be on the
Speaker 2: campaign trail, I guess, and I know you watched this
Speaker 2: very closely. Is the media getting it right or wrong
Speaker 2: on Rond de Santis because he's being labeled as the
Speaker 2: Jeb Bush of this campaign.
Speaker 6: I think that they're actually getting it wrong at this point.
Speaker 6: I think there's no doubt that there was a lot
Speaker 6: of inflation from the media about the Santa's candidacy before
Speaker 6: he ran in there miss expects and so then therefore
Speaker 6: the narrative is one that compares him more to Jeb
Speaker 6: and it's sort of the notion of collapse. But I
Speaker 6: think right now to Santa's in the second place in Iowa,
Speaker 6: which is the first caucus, and so I think that
Speaker 6: we have to wait to get through that Iowa and
Speaker 6: then we can reassess where Desante's campaign is. I think
Speaker 6: it's premature to right an obituary that suggests that he's
Speaker 6: following the saint path as.
Speaker 2: Jeb bush Well would you see? You know how Iowa
Speaker 2: can can really be a game changer. It can shake
Speaker 2: things up and then it can happen again in New
Speaker 2: Hampshire frequently against the grain here you remember Mike Huckabee
Speaker 2: winning Rick Santorum. Is Iowa going to surprise us this time?
Speaker 6: I think there will be a surprise and Iaowa, whether
Speaker 6: or not it's somebody wins or whether not somebody simply
Speaker 6: comes in a much closer second place or Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: The expectation right now that I think the Trump campaign
Speaker 6: has pushed is one that he's going to run away
Speaker 6: with this. And so even if there's a candidate who finishes,
Speaker 6: let's say within ten points, I think for a lot
Speaker 6: of media it's going to be WHOA wait a second,
Speaker 6: maybe this is actually closer. And so I do think
Speaker 6: that the Trump campaign has built up exceedingly high expectations
Speaker 6: for how they would do in Iowa New Hampshire, and
Speaker 6: I do think that Iowa relishes the chance to sort
Speaker 6: of change the narrative. Iowa voters take it very seriously.
Speaker 6: As you mentioned Santorum and Huckabee as well as Barack Obama.
Speaker 2: That's right.
Speaker 6: All these candidates were pulling really in Obama's case in
Speaker 6: the low double digits, but others high single digits, shook
Speaker 6: them until the fall, and so I think that people
Speaker 6: forget as well. In twenty sixteen, Donald Trump did not
Speaker 6: win Iowa. People just assumed that he did, but it
Speaker 6: actually was Ted Cruz who won the long time, and
Speaker 6: so yeah, I think there will be surprises in Iowa well.
Speaker 2: So to that end, it was remarkable to watch the
Speaker 2: dominos fall in the Democratic primary between Iowa New Hampshire
Speaker 2: South Carolina in twenty twenty Joe Biden. We were doing
Speaker 2: exit interviews with Joe Biden in Manchester and all of
Speaker 2: a sudden, what the heck? Everybody dropped out within three
Speaker 2: hours or something and goes flying into South Carolina and
Speaker 2: he's He's anointed essentially the nominee. Are we going to
Speaker 2: see an attempt, maybe not a successful one, but an
Speaker 2: attempt to clear the field here and identify an alternative
Speaker 2: Donald Trump coalesce around it.
Speaker 6: Well, I think the market forces do that naturally. The
Speaker 6: reality is, if you don't have the fundraising to continue on,
Speaker 6: it's hard to continue on. And I think we're already
Speaker 6: down to really four principal candidates, and you may be
Speaker 6: in a narrow field by the time you get to Iowa.
Speaker 6: So I don't know how much more there is, But Joe,
Speaker 6: I do think I probably have a less contemporary perspective
Speaker 6: on this. I think for a lot of the media
Speaker 6: of the notion is, hey, you just need to get
Speaker 6: down to one alternative to Trump. And I think that
Speaker 6: what we've seen is that as candidates get out of
Speaker 6: the raise, it almost builds more inevitability that Trump is
Speaker 6: going to be the nominee. As we just talked about,
Speaker 6: as Cannas has gotten out, you've actually seen Trump numbers
Speaker 6: get up above sixty percent, and as Ron DeSantis's numbers
Speaker 6: collapsed or in this campaign, it wasn't like that went
Speaker 6: to the rest of the field. That support went back
Speaker 6: to Donald Trump. And so I'm not buying this in
Speaker 6: this I think conventional wisdom that says, hey, there needs
Speaker 6: to be one alternative to Trump. I think in actuality,
Speaker 6: as candidates fall out, it builds more an ability that
Speaker 6: Trump will be the nominee.
Speaker 2: Unreal. It's like the gravitational pull of the sun. Mark Short,
Speaker 2: great to see you, Happy Thanksgiving.
Speaker 6: Happy Thanksgiving to you.
Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to have you at the table here,
Speaker 2: Republican strategist Mark Short with us in a fascinating conversation
Speaker 2: as you would expect here on sound On, I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew at Washington.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast.
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Patrick Dehan does this for a living. You've heard him
Speaker 2: before on sound On, and he's with us again now,
Speaker 2: the head of petroleum analysis at gas Buddy. It's great, Dave, Patrick,
Speaker 2: welcome back as we talk again ahead of another holiday weekend,
Speaker 2: looking at crude. As I mentioned WTI your seventy six
Speaker 2: dollars a gallon and a national average at three point
Speaker 2: thirty three. What's it going to look like once we
Speaker 2: really get into the throes of wintertime.
Speaker 7: Well, I think we'll continue to moderate here. We've seen
Speaker 7: a lot of downward pressure in the last four weeks
Speaker 7: on WTI prices, so that's translated to certainly cheaper gasoline prices.
Speaker 7: We're also in the midst of seasonality. Americans simply not
Speaker 7: driving as much, even though they're on the doorstep of Thanksgiving,
Speaker 7: Americans really toning down their gasoline consumption. That's put a
Speaker 7: lot of downward pressure on prices as well. In addition,
Speaker 7: refineries wrapping up their maintenance and they're going to have
Speaker 7: to find a place to put all that gasoline, and
Speaker 7: all of that, coupled together with less risk from the
Speaker 7: Middle East, has certainly caused an eight week drop in
Speaker 7: the price of gasoline. The national average now at three
Speaker 7: point thirty one a gallon. That's the lowest tally since February.
Speaker 7: So just in time for a driving holiday, we're greeted
Speaker 7: with some of the lowest prices in months.
Speaker 2: Sounds kind of rituitive. I have to have been one.
Speaker 2: I hear references to less risk in the Middle East.
Speaker 2: I know there was a great concern about a second front,
Speaker 2: that this might expand into something involving Iran if it
Speaker 2: isn't already on a proxy level here. But is it
Speaker 2: just a matter of expectations because we've still got a
Speaker 2: hot war going in Gaza.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it is. It's managing expectations. There is also less
Speaker 7: risk in this area. Israel obviously not a major oil producer,
Speaker 7: but as you mentioned, this is more of a risk
Speaker 7: about Iran, and certainly Iran has even suggested in recent
Speaker 7: weeks to Hamas that it's not going to get involved
Speaker 7: in this, so that further reduces the amount of risk.
Speaker 7: Of course, something could change, but all of this, the
Speaker 7: takeaway is really that this is not impacting or slowing
Speaker 7: down the flows of crude oil out of the Middle East,
Speaker 7: and that's why oil prices. Initially there was a little
Speaker 7: bit of a risk, but this never really affected gas prices.
Speaker 7: It could not overpower the seasonality that by the way,
Speaker 7: we'll continue and now with crudit seventy six dollars a barrel.
Speaker 7: Though it's up today, I still think there's a pretty
Speaker 7: good shot that we could retest the lows that we
Speaker 7: saw last winter when the national average bottomed out at
Speaker 7: three zero five a gallon.
Speaker 2: And that's an economic indicator, right, that's a cooling economy,
Speaker 2: which would be consistent with a lot of the data
Speaker 2: we're seeing. There's really fewer is reliable though, as the
Speaker 2: price of gas.
Speaker 7: Yeah, certainly the price of gasoline and economic barometer, and
Speaker 7: of course the price of gas is contingent on gasoline
Speaker 7: consumption and that's been weakening. So certainly some signals from consumption,
Speaker 7: which gas Buty's latest estiment last week, the US consumed
Speaker 7: eight point four to six million barrels. I know the
Speaker 7: EIA data was quite a bit higher, almost a midsummer print,
Speaker 7: but our data is suggestive of a consumer that's a
Speaker 7: bit reluctant to fill up at the same pace they
Speaker 7: did even a weeks prior. So certainly not a positive
Speaker 7: sign in the economy. But you know, Americans feeling the
Speaker 7: lower prices. Sixty thousand stations now crossing out of states
Speaker 7: with gasoline under three dollars, twelve states under three dollars,
Speaker 7: so a lot more Americans looking at the pump and
Speaker 7: feeling a little bit more normal, it may not boost
Speaker 7: their holiday spending.
Speaker 2: You sound optimistic as we spend time with Patrick to
Speaker 2: hunt from gas Buddy. We keep asking the White House
Speaker 2: about refilling the spr and when you see seventy five
Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, we're getting back into that range that
Speaker 2: the Energy Department said it was comfortable with. Are we
Speaker 2: about to see a lot more bids because I know
Speaker 2: it's not as simple as just going in the market
Speaker 2: and buying these barrels, or is this just something that's
Speaker 2: going to take a generation because so much has been used.
Speaker 7: Well, I mean, I'd really be hoping with the moves
Speaker 7: that the Department of Energy and the White House has
Speaker 7: been making and preparation to fill this that now that
Speaker 7: the strike price, you know, was hit seventy nine dollars
Speaker 7: a varrow was the price that the DOE clearly outlined,
Speaker 7: I'd be hoping that they were active in the market. Now.
Speaker 7: They did just announce last week a one point six
Speaker 7: million barrel buy back. That's you know, as we know,
Speaker 7: that's a needle in the haystack kind of amount. So
Speaker 7: they really need to ramp up. And as long as
Speaker 7: the price of WTI has remained below seventy nine dollars.
Speaker 7: I really hope that the government's in a position to
Speaker 7: buy back at these prices, considering the average selling price
Speaker 7: you know last year was ninety five dollars a barrel.
Speaker 2: When we consider folks heating their homes this winter, what's
Speaker 2: the gap going to look like between those who use
Speaker 2: heating oil and those who use natural gas.
Speaker 7: Well, natural gas has come down far more than what
Speaker 7: we've seen for heating oil, and simply because in light
Speaker 7: of the Russia warn Ukraine, there's been a lot of changes,
Speaker 7: a lot of increase in natural gas production. And we
Speaker 7: benefited last year from a warmer than expected winter as well.
Speaker 7: You know, we just did not see withdraws from natural
Speaker 7: gas reserves is significant, and so we came out of
Speaker 7: winter above average, and now natural gas inventories have continued
Speaker 7: to run well average, and so that's put a lot
Speaker 7: of downward pressure on natural gas prices. But home heating
Speaker 7: oil is subject to the refining constraints that we've been
Speaker 7: dealing with the last few years, and they aren't completely resolved.
Speaker 7: I mean, more refining capacities come online, but all it
Speaker 7: would take is one you know, extended period, a couple
Speaker 7: of weeks of bone chilling temperatures in the Northeast for
Speaker 7: those home heating oil prices to shoot up to potentially
Speaker 7: four or fifty or five dollars a gallon.
Speaker 2: Again, well, you just answered my next question, then, so
Speaker 2: is this the year to cut up the oil tank again,
Speaker 2: get rid of it and go to natural gas?
Speaker 7: Well, I think now more than ever, you know, I
Speaker 7: do expect home heating oil price to be lower than
Speaker 7: last year. But to your point, there's probably never been
Speaker 7: a better time more cost savings associated with making the
Speaker 7: jump over to natural gas, and that's that's what we've
Speaker 7: been seeing recent here. So I'm sure that's a trend
Speaker 7: that will continue.
Speaker 2: Patrick. It's good to have you. I don't know if
Speaker 2: you're driving, is someone in your business actually get in
Speaker 2: the car around Thanksgiving? Or is that the reason why?
Speaker 7: You know, I was out of scouting prices just a
Speaker 7: couple hours ago. I've been making the rounds and you know,
Speaker 7: pleasantly surprised. But I'll be staying home for Thanksgiving, and
Speaker 7: you know, I was talking to some other folks as
Speaker 7: well that you know, a lot of us seem to
Speaker 7: be staying closer to home and gas buddy survey found
Speaker 7: that a lot of Americans forty one percent are hitting
Speaker 7: the road, but that means a lot of them aren't.
Speaker 2: Wait, you're really driving around scouting gas prices. You have
Speaker 2: some way to get the prices in another way.
Speaker 7: I was scouting prices as I was running around to
Speaker 7: get ready for Thanksgiving next week.
Speaker 2: I guess you can't help yourself. I love the image
Speaker 2: of I can't I have to gas station to gas station.
Speaker 2: Well absolutely, yeah, your first hand reporting. It's good to
Speaker 2: have you. Patrick, Happy Thanksgiving. I hope you have a
Speaker 2: safe holiday. Come back and see us again soon. The
Speaker 2: head of petroleum analysis at gasbuddy dot com. I picture
Speaker 2: him like Henry Hill driving or I'll look it up
Speaker 2: the midshields. It's not a helicopter. Patrick, Thanks for listening
Speaker 2: to the sound on podcast. Make sure to subscribe if
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Speaker 2: get your podcasts. And you can find us live every
Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.