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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

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Speaker 2: Welcome. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington, where it is a

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Speaker 2: ghost town. The House and Senate are out. President still

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Speaker 2: in San Francisco. He's going in Delaware later tonight for

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Speaker 2: the weekend. It's a Thanksgiving feel. Actually, there's a Christmas

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Speaker 2: tree across the street from the bureaus. So I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Maybe we're just fast forwarding through this whole thing. So

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Speaker 2: thanks for being with us, whether you're on the radio,

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Speaker 2: on the satellite, or on YouTube. Find us on YouTube

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Speaker 2: now search Bloomberg Global News, and I'll remind you later

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Speaker 2: to subscribe to the podcast because we've got a lot

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Speaker 2: of good stuff we're packing into two hours here, beginning

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Speaker 2: with what's happening in Israel on the terminal. The latest

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Speaker 2: story that we're following has to do with relief in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Israel says it will allow two diesel tankers per day

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Speaker 2: into Gaza to support water and sewage system, prevent an

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Speaker 2: outbreak of disease in this This is happening, of course,

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Speaker 2: against the backdrop of in many cases, door to door

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Speaker 2: fighting with the IDF trying to rid Gaza of Hamas,

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Speaker 2: and it brings us to the situation at the hospital

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Speaker 2: in Gaza. Now, this has been going on for days.

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Speaker 2: We've talked about it here, IDF troops entering the hospital,

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Speaker 2: and we even had the Minister of the Economy from

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Speaker 2: Israel tell us here on Bloomberg. They believe that a

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Speaker 2: Hamas headquarters was below that hospital, and Israel has been

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Speaker 2: under a lot of pressure to justify this move. They're

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Speaker 2: out with a video now showing a tunnel that they discovered,

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Speaker 2: the opening the entry point yes in the hospital, as

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Speaker 2: troops try to neutralize this threat and also protect civilians

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Speaker 2: and patients inside. The director of the Al Shifa Hospital

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Speaker 2: giving us some numbers here, there are still more than

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Speaker 2: six hundred and fifty patients, five hundred medical staff, and

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Speaker 2: five thousand displaced people all in that hospital. Can you

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Speaker 2: imagine what it is like in that building? True also

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Speaker 2: do their work there on behalf of the IDF, and

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Speaker 2: now that we're seeing video of this tunnel, I can

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Speaker 2: only imagine what's happening next. But the wto the World

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Speaker 2: Trade Organization says we have a problem here. They've recorded

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Speaker 2: at least one hundred and thirty seven attacks on healthcare

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Speaker 2: in Gaza, where now nine out of thirty five hospitals

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Speaker 2: are partially functioning according to Palestinian health authorities. The rest

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Speaker 2: have shut down. And the latest polling that we're seeing

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Speaker 2: now from Quinnipiac is quite remarkable. The shift in sentiment

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Speaker 2: among Americans over what is happening here in Israel has

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Speaker 2: been pronounced over the last month. The university out with

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Speaker 2: these numbers showing the number of voters in America sympathizing

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Speaker 2: more with Palestinians more with Palestinians increased by double digits

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Speaker 2: compared to a survey last month, from thirteen percent to

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Speaker 2: twenty four percent. The shift largely driven by respondents under

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Speaker 2: thirty five years old. And that's where we start our

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Speaker 2: conversation today with Hidar Suskin, the president and CEO for

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Speaker 2: the group Americans for Peace Now is with us. Adar,

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Speaker 2: I appreciate your time and welcome to Bloomberg. We can

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Speaker 2: have a debate here about Israel's motivations and the justification

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Speaker 2: it has to wage a war with Hamas. But I'd

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Speaker 2: like to talk to you about the effort here to

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Speaker 2: save civilian lives. And I wonder what you see as

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Speaker 2: the most important thing that happens. Now we've got pauses

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Speaker 2: in place, What is next?

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Speaker 3: Hi, First of all, thank you for inviting me. I'm

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Speaker 3: happy to be here with you today. I think there

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Speaker 3: are unfortunately no easy answers in this conversation. There are

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Speaker 3: a lot of bad options and a lot of difficult choices,

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Speaker 3: and the need to protect civilian lives Israeli and Palestinian

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Speaker 3: civilian lives should be paramount for everyone, for Israelis, for Hamas,

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Speaker 3: and for the American government. Unfortunately, that's not what we've

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Speaker 3: seen much of on the ground, and those losses have

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Speaker 3: been massive and tragic on both sides. And I think, again,

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Speaker 3: as you said, without getting into the justification for the war,

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Speaker 3: which I'm happy to talk about it if you want to,

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Speaker 3: there's no doubt that greater precautions and greater careny to

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Speaker 3: be taken to protectively in lives. I'm glad to see

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Speaker 3: that fuel allowed into Gaza. It will help. It will

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Speaker 3: help with the salination plants, so there are clean water

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Speaker 3: with electricity, but it represents approximately six or seven percent

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Speaker 3: of the daily amount of fuel that was going in

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Speaker 3: prior to the war, and it's clearly insufficient for the

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Speaker 3: needs of the population there.

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Speaker 2: Fuel also means the bakeries can start functioning again, so

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Speaker 2: people can get bread. Israel, says Headar, it wants to

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Speaker 2: evacuate the Al Shifa hospital. I just ran through some numbers.

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Speaker 2: It's larger than some small towns, the number of people

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Speaker 2: who are housed there right now, What is the right

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Speaker 2: path for Israel when it comes to neutralizing the threat

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Speaker 2: below the hospital and protecting the people who are in it.

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Speaker 3: It's difficult, and again there's no easy options here. You

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Speaker 3: have two truths. One is that Hamas embeds itself in

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Speaker 3: civilian populations. Hamas does things like set up headquarters in

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Speaker 3: hospitals and schools and other such places. That's an unequivocal truth.

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Speaker 3: It's also true that even if they do that, even

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Speaker 3: if they commit that act, which is a war crime,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't justify the killing of civilians, even if even

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Speaker 3: if that is unintentional. Intention has no part in this.

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Speaker 3: So Israel is in a very difficult situation. It needs

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Speaker 3: to defend itself, and it needs to respond to the

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Speaker 3: really horrific attacks that took place on October seventh and

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Speaker 3: make sure that Hamas is not able to do something

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Speaker 3: like that again. But it also has a moral and

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Speaker 3: legal responsibility as well as a political one, to do

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Speaker 3: so in a way that minimizes the loss of innocent

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Speaker 3: civilian lives and that really honors the sanctity of all life.

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Speaker 2: And I know you're referring to both sides in this.

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Speaker 2: You wrote an op ed in the Hill the headline

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Speaker 2: in Israel and Gaza, I choose the side of humanity,

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Speaker 2: realizing that Hamas chooses the other. Is that fair?

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Speaker 3: Well? Again, the end of that was not in the headline,

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Speaker 3: But yes, look, Hamas has made it clear.

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Speaker 2: No, I added that I'm asking you that question based

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Speaker 2: on your head Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Hamas has made it clear long before

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Speaker 3: October seventh, but certainly with its horrific attack, which is

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Speaker 3: a massacre of civilians, a massacre of innocent people, women, children, infants,

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Speaker 3: that they don't respect human life, and frankly, the fact

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Speaker 3: that they embed themselves among the civilian population in Gaza,

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Speaker 3: the fact that they have food and fuel and other materials,

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Speaker 3: so that they don't give to the civilian population of

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Speaker 3: Gaza makes it clear that they don't have that respect

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Speaker 3: for the sanctity of human life. The question that Israel

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Speaker 3: face isn't the question that we as leaders in the

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Speaker 3: United States face is simply whether we're going to take

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Speaker 3: the same position as Hamas or not. And for me,

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Speaker 3: part of that point of choosing the side of humanity

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Speaker 3: is moving away from what we've seen so much of

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Speaker 3: on the quote pro Israel side and pro pro Palestinian side,

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Speaker 3: of people just trying to score points for their team,

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Speaker 3: people trying to prove that Israelis are all right and

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Speaker 3: justice and righteous and just, or Palestinians are all righteous

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Speaker 3: and just. This is not that simple, and it's not

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Speaker 3: a sporting event where you cheer for your team. These

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Speaker 3: are the real lives of real people and incredibly difficult

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Speaker 3: questions that don't have easy answers but need to be addressed.

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Speaker 2: Does Benjamin Netanya, who respects the lives of Palestinian civilians.

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Speaker 3: Look? I think it is unbelievably evident that Benjamin Natona,

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Speaker 3: who and his entire government have failed that frankly, was

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Speaker 3: clear in many ways before October seventh, but on October seventh,

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Speaker 3: it became clear that they failed at what is the

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Speaker 3: fundamental function of government, which is protecting the lives of

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Speaker 3: its civilians. And his response, what we've seen taking place

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Speaker 3: in Gaza since then, as well as what we've seen

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Speaker 3: in the West Bank, and frankly, what we saw before

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Speaker 3: October seventh is that Benjamin n'atagne who values his own

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Speaker 3: political future and that is his priority. He puts that

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Speaker 3: ahead of, frankly, the good of the Israeli people and

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Speaker 3: certainly the good of the Palestinian people.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of the Quinnipiac University poll that

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Speaker 2: came out yesterday I mentioned at the top of the

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Speaker 2: hour here we are seeing a shift the number of

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Speaker 2: voters in America sympathizing more with Palestinians, increasing by double

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Speaker 2: digits from the same survey last month. And it's not

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Speaker 2: a surprise to see that driven by people under thirty five.

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Speaker 2: Those who are old, older, and particularly those over sixty

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Speaker 2: five are far more likely to hold the opposite positions,

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Speaker 2: and that probably represents lawmakers here in Washington and the

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Speaker 2: active voting public a lot more. But was this a

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Speaker 2: surprise to you or is something that you expect to

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Speaker 2: see continue.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's certainly not a surprise. I think given what

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Speaker 3: we are seeing, the images that are coming out of Gaza,

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Speaker 3: the stories and the reports that we're hearing, I'm not

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Speaker 3: surprised at this at all. I agree with what you

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Speaker 3: said that that doesn't reflect certainly not Congress, and frankly

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Speaker 3: probably not the majority of voting Americans. You know, these

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Speaker 3: polls I often honestly find very problematic and not very

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Speaker 3: helpful beyond a broad talking point. Because if you ask me,

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Speaker 3: am I pro Israel, I would say yes, I'm an

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Speaker 3: Israeli citizen, I am an IDF veteran. If you ask

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Speaker 3: me I am I pro Palestinian, I would also say yes.

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Speaker 3: I don't think those things can be mutually exclusive. Not

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Speaker 3: only that they should didn't be, but they can't be.

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Speaker 3: And I say that because this war is going to

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Speaker 3: come to an end, not as soon as I would

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Speaker 3: like it to, and I don't know when, but it

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Speaker 3: will end, and when it does, there will still be

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Speaker 3: Israelis there, and when it does, there will still be

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Speaker 3: Palestinians there, and those Israelis and those Palestinians have to

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Speaker 3: find a better way to live and work together. Going

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Speaker 3: to the future. There's literally simply no option. So somebody

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Speaker 3: who tells me that they are pro Israel but anti

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Speaker 3: Palestinian is not pro Israel, and the same the other

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Speaker 3: way around.

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Speaker 2: We're spending some time talking with Hadar Suskin, the President's

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Speaker 2: CEO of the group Americans for Peace Now, and a

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Speaker 2: very important piece of information as a former member of

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Speaker 2: the IDF is you just told us what do you

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Speaker 2: think your former brothers in arms are going through here

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Speaker 2: being asked to carry out incredibly dangerous operations in Gaza.

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Speaker 3: Brothers and sisters. First of all, I will say Israel

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Speaker 3: certainly is one among the leaders in having integrated in

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Speaker 3: terms of gender its armed forces, including its combat forces.

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Speaker 3: Look again, I think that the attacks of the seventh

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Speaker 3: required a military response. No country would or should allow

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Speaker 3: an attack like that on its citizens. A massacre of

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Speaker 3: somewhere between twelve and fourteen hundred people two hundred and

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Speaker 3: forty or so people take in hostage. So a military

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Speaker 3: response sadly was necessary. But that's not a blank check,

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Speaker 3: and that doesn't mean any military response is okay. The

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Speaker 3: responsibility for that and for what the actions are and

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Speaker 3: what the decisions are, of course rests with the political leadership,

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Speaker 3: not the day to day soldiers. But tell you, along

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Speaker 3: with many friends and many colleagues and acquaintances, I have

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Speaker 3: a nephew who is a combat soldier in the IDF

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Speaker 3: right now, and they are going through terrible, terrible things.

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Speaker 3: And again there's you know, there's no one side to this. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: the people of Gaza are suffering unimaginable horrors, but so

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Speaker 3: too have the people of Israel, and so too have

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Speaker 3: the soldiers of the IDF, many of whom have lost

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Speaker 3: their lives in this recent bount of the conflict and

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Speaker 3: been injured, and again, like everyone involved, been traumatized.

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Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could make some time for us.

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Speaker 2: Hdar thank you for being with us. He runs the

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Speaker 2: group Americans for Peace Now. Hidar Suskin, we thank you

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Speaker 2: for joining.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: George Santos the congressman from New York, is going to

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Speaker 2: hold a news conference. He's scheduled a news conference for

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Speaker 2: the Thursday after Thanksgiving, November thirty. Will he resign? I

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Speaker 2: can only imagine after the news yesterday the Ethics Committee

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Speaker 2: in the House out with its report on Santos. Skating

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Speaker 2: is the word the news organizations are going with. And

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Speaker 2: my goodness, Santos improperly diverting thousands of dollars, as we

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Speaker 2: read from his campaign for personal use everything from botox

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Speaker 2: to luxury items. And they're actually going through with this.

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Speaker 2: The chair of the Ethics Committee, Michael Gas this is

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Speaker 2: a Republican by the way, it's Republican led House has

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Speaker 2: done the deed. He filed a privileged resolution to expel

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Speaker 2: Santos during today's pro forma session. It's the one piece

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Speaker 2: of business that matters today in Washington, and that starts

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Speaker 2: the clock ticking, gives you two legislative days to deal

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Speaker 2: with this. So next week could be something here, although

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Speaker 2: well they've headed home for Thanksgiving, so we might have

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Speaker 2: to wait a minute. Back into town here, the news

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Speaker 2: conference is going to be well attended. I think we'll

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Speaker 2: reassemble our panel for their take on Things, Rick Davis

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Speaker 2: and Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. It does look like

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Speaker 2: the writing is on the wall here, Genie, Is this

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Speaker 2: the end of George Santos's political career?

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Speaker 4: It is one way or the other. You know, at

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Speaker 4: least this pushed him to announce that he is not

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Speaker 4: going to seek reelection. But I do think if they

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Speaker 4: go for a vote, he will be expelled at this point.

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Speaker 4: But boy, what a horrific, ugly, dirty ending to I

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Speaker 4: think maybe, and I wouldn't say this lightly. One of

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Speaker 4: the ugliest years in the modern history of Congress. So

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Speaker 4: it is quite a way to end the year.

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Speaker 3: And you know, you.

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Speaker 4: Think about it, not just botox, but what he was

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Speaker 4: spending his campaign funds on. At least on Thursday, when

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Speaker 4: he holds the press conference, we know he'll be well

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Speaker 4: dressed and he'll look good. Joe, so because he's been

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Speaker 4: spending an awful lot to shore himself up for that.

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Speaker 2: He's got a lot of sweaters, that's for sure. Rick,

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Speaker 2: will he resigned before his colleagues have a chance to

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Speaker 2: vote him out.

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Speaker 5: If he's smart, he will.

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Speaker 3: You know, that would certainly.

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Speaker 5: Create a little different environment when they get back on

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Speaker 5: the twenty eighth of November. As you mentioned, it's not

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Speaker 5: often that you get this kind of a resolution by

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Speaker 5: the chairman of the Ethics Committee. He's already been tested

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Speaker 5: twice on getting votes for his expulsion, maybe third times

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Speaker 5: to charm and I think this whole idea of press

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Speaker 5: conference on the thirtieth, I mean, he may not be

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Speaker 5: a member by the thirtieth of November, so you know,

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Speaker 5: I don't know why anybody would show up to hear

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Speaker 5: him talk about why he was expelled from Congress. But

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Speaker 5: the bottom line is I actually see it as a positive.

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Speaker 5: It shows you that the Ethics Committee is working, that

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Speaker 5: it's been bipartisan that is actually doing its job, and

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Speaker 5: that maybe together Republicans and Democrats can celebrate the fact

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Speaker 5: that they can police their own ranks. For a change.

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Speaker 5: All we've talked about since Santos was elected is what

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Speaker 5: a blight he is on the Republican Party and how

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Speaker 5: he makes kind of a joke of the institution. And

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Speaker 5: maybe it got to the point where members are going

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Speaker 5: to start thinking about their own image of the institution,

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Speaker 5: what's good for it for a change. Certainly, as Genie said,

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Speaker 5: been a rough year in that regard, but maybe we're

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Speaker 5: entering the end of this year in a different tone.

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Speaker 2: He'd be the first member expelled since James Traffick hit

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Speaker 2: which god, that was back in two thousand and two.

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Speaker 2: It's been a long time since this has happened, Genie,

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Speaker 2: So beam me up. What do you think does he

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Speaker 2: resign before he gets thrown out?

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Speaker 4: To Rick's point, if he has any sense, and gosh,

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure he does. But if he has any sense,

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Speaker 4: he will resign.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 4: The reality is is that the committee and again bipartisan,

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Speaker 4: in unanimous, with this scathing report, they didn't even vote

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Speaker 4: or go forward with a formal expulsion recommendation because it

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Speaker 4: would have extended this ugly chaos into next year. So

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Speaker 4: in the interest of getting this over quickly, pulling the

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Speaker 4: band aid quickly, they decided not to go in that direction.

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Speaker 4: And so it really is something. I mean, Ken Buck,

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Speaker 4: the congressman from Colorado, said, George, now is the time

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Speaker 4: to resign. Then you have some quiet days over the

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Speaker 4: Thanksgiving holidays to clean out your office, and gosh, I

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Speaker 4: wish he and hope he is listening to that, but

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Speaker 4: again there's no telling what he is thinking. And what

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Speaker 4: he's doing. But you know, I think Kathy Holpel, the

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Speaker 4: governor of New York's got to get her pen ready.

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Speaker 4: If he does resign, She's got days to call for

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Speaker 4: a special election, and that is going to be a

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Speaker 4: big deal. A lot of candidates in the offing on

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Speaker 4: both sides to try to contest for that seat that

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Speaker 4: Biden won by eight points that district.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that'll be a riot. No one would be surprised

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Speaker 2: if it turned democratic in a state that has been

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Speaker 2: pretty kind to Republicans lately. Rick, if this actually happens,

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Speaker 2: does it start a conversation about a double standard in

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Speaker 2: the Republican Party when it comes to Donald Trump?

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Speaker 3: You know, it could.

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Speaker 5: There's a lot of sensitivity on both sides of the

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Speaker 5: aisle about not jumping ahead of the process. And so

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Speaker 5: you know the fact that the Ethics Committee kind of

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Speaker 5: plowed the field for the idea of going forward with this,

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Speaker 5: even though no one has actually convicted Santos of wrongdoing

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Speaker 5: the overwhelming way of the evidence and the expansive report,

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Speaker 5: I mean, typically the Ethics Committee only releases like a

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Speaker 5: half a pager on their investigation, fifty pages of indictment. Again,

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Speaker 5: Representative Santos was presented and it just overwhelmingly indicts him

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Speaker 5: on his behavior. So yeah, I think that there will

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Speaker 5: be some thought about around the vote, especially are we

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Speaker 5: creating a moral equivalency here about Donald Trump? But my

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Speaker 5: guess is people are just gonna want to put the

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Speaker 5: blinders on and say, like, this is about George Santos

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Speaker 5: and we've got to We've got to get him out

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Speaker 5: of our institution.

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Speaker 2: Do you each have thoughts on what he does here

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Speaker 2: other than potentially go to jail if that's where this

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Speaker 2: is going with his criminal case? Genie, Does he go

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Speaker 2: to reality TV? This country loves a rehabilitation story, right?

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Speaker 2: Is he going to be on the talk show circuit?

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Speaker 2: What happens?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I can only imagine maybe he'll start a podcast, you know,

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Speaker 4: maybe he will go into fashion. I can't even guess

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Speaker 4: what he will do next. But gosh, it would be

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Speaker 4: great to get him out of politics and.

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Speaker 3: Out of the House.

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Speaker 4: And nobody wants that more than his constituents in that

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Speaker 4: Long Island district. The Republicans are pulling their hair out

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Speaker 4: that he has been sitting there wasting their votes for

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Speaker 4: two years now, not even on a committee.

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Speaker 2: Right, I've only got thirty seconds. Again, Rick, could he

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Speaker 2: get a lot of money for a book? Is that

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Speaker 2: actually what comes next?

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Speaker 5: I think a TV show would be better. I mean

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Speaker 5: it'd be part comedy in part drama.

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Speaker 2: And fashion. Apparently, Rick Davis Genie Shanzano have some final

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Speaker 2: thoughts with us straight ahead. This is really happening. George

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Speaker 2: Santos read about it. We've got a great story on

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Speaker 2: the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com if you want

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Speaker 2: to understand the charges and what was inside that ethics report.

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Speaker 2: It's a reader. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 2: We're listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts. As

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Speaker 2: we consider our station in life here going into the

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Speaker 2: Thanksgiving break and what was done this week, what was

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Speaker 2: actually accomplished and what has yet to be done. It's

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Speaker 2: a much longer list on the other side here, and

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Speaker 2: that's where we're going to begin our conversation with Mark

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Speaker 2: short I just rattled through his business card. It's a

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Speaker 2: long one, as he straddles both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

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Speaker 2: This is the insider conversation that I was promising for

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Speaker 2: head of the Republican Conference in the House, former chief

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Speaker 2: of Staff to Vice President Mike Penn's great.

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Speaker 6: To see you, sir, Thanks thanks for having me on.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely so we have waited a shutdown. We could take

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Speaker 2: a minute to celebrate that. Right, we're not shutting down

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Speaker 2: this week. Everybody would have been freaking out right now

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Speaker 2: and planning to work over the weekend in any other world.

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Speaker 6: That's right, and I think we'll probably avoid another one

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Speaker 6: come January and February. But it does at least extend

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Speaker 6: it for a couple of months, as opposed to all

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Speaker 6: the way through the next fiscal year. But I think

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Speaker 6: that House Republicans seemed to be coming to acceptance that

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Speaker 6: they don't control the Senate or the White House, and

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Speaker 6: so their negotiate and leverage here isn't quite the same.

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Speaker 6: It is I think somewhat ironic, Joe that the deal

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Speaker 6: that Kevin McCarthy negotiated just a few weeks back that

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Speaker 6: he ended up getting removed from a speakership for actually

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Speaker 6: had sixty billion dollars less than spending than this CR does. So,

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Speaker 6: you know, for all those members who were claiming that

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Speaker 6: they were fighting for principle on fiscal sanity, I think

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Speaker 6: it's it's been clearly exposed early. It's more of a

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Speaker 6: personal problem with Kevin for them than it was really

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Speaker 6: over policy.

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Speaker 2: Well, I know some members are getting a little annoyed already.

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Speaker 2: We're hearing Chip Royce. He's got two strikes against him already.

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Speaker 2: Should they have fixed that motion of vacate before you

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Speaker 2: already answered? My next question is you don't think we're

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Speaker 2: going to shut down in January? That probably means though

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Speaker 2: he's got to work with Democrats again, So is he

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Speaker 2: going to run into the same trouble as his predecessor again?

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Speaker 6: I think the reality is that the Republics are going

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Speaker 6: to have to work with Democrats because they controlled the

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Speaker 6: Senate and the White House, and so whether it's inside

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Speaker 6: the House conference, I think I think the old position

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Speaker 6: always was the stronger bill you can get out of,

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Speaker 6: the more negotiating leverage you have. But I think there's

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Speaker 6: some conservatives I think coup on principle, take a position

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Speaker 6: that they will never vote for CR and that Congress

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Speaker 6: should do its job and pass appropriations bills. Then margin

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Speaker 6: is so narrow that that means that you're never going

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Speaker 6: to anything but ACR right now, because you're going to

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Speaker 6: have to work with Democrats to get one pass out

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Speaker 6: of the House.

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Speaker 2: So the idea of regular order by whatever it is

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Speaker 2: February second, that's not what we're talking about here. You

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Speaker 2: think there might be another stop gap, It wouldn't be

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Speaker 2: a year long, right that would that would be the

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Speaker 2: end of the speaker.

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Speaker 6: I'm assuming, well, I do think they'll get it. You'll

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Speaker 6: get a CR that'll finish to the rest of the

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Speaker 6: fiscal year. I'm not sure that the Republicans are in

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Speaker 6: a position right now, having gone through the exercise with Kevin,

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Speaker 6: that they want to remove another speaker, So I do

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Speaker 6: think that that's what'll end up. I think at the

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Speaker 6: same time, there'll be appropriations bills put forward in the

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Speaker 6: House that try to pass. I'm skeptical that they'll actually

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Speaker 6: get all twelve done, So I think you end up

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Speaker 6: with another CR.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I want to ask you, of course, about the

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Speaker 2: rest of the job here. It's not just funny the government,

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Speaker 2: but the supplemental by request Israel, Ukraine, we talk about

436
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,479
Speaker 2: it every day, and there's no real path here, though

437
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,719
Speaker 2: we've had we've had members of the Senate tell us

438
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 2: they think they might actually be able to get this

439
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 2: over the finish line in December and not prolong a

440
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 2: weight into next year. Are they speaking a different language

441
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 2: still than the House on this?

442
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:21,400
Speaker 6: I think that I'm probably optimistic as well that inevitably

443
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 6: they'll be funding for Ukraine and Israel, but I'm probably

444
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 6: thinking that won't be a standalone bill. I think that's

445
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 6: probably something that comes forward combined with the CR in

446
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 6: January of February, because at that point, if you've if

447
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 6: you're accepting the conversation you and I already having that

448
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 6: inevitably you're gonna need a bipartisan c our bill. Then

449
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 6: I think the Senate will have more leverage at that

450
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 6: point to go out and attach the additional sulflemental funding

451
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 6: because because Johnson's not able to get a Republican only

452
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 6: build out of the House, so you're gonna have to

453
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 6: do something to buy Partison anyhow, So at that point

454
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 6: it makes more sense to attach.

455
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 2: That funding hinging on an agreement some breakthrough that we've

456
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 2: waited decades for on border security? Is that fair?

457
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 6: You know, I'm probably less optimistic on the border security funding.

458
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 6: I think that a lot of Republicans are anxious to

459
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 6: see that. But I think, as Ron De Santis said

460
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 6: from the debate stage a few weeks back, the reality

461
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 6: is with the Biden administrations proposing in border security funding

462
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 6: is really just more funding to facilitate more asylum processing

463
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 6: and to actually allow more refugees into the United States.

464
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 6: And I don't think that's really what Republicans are looking for.

465
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 6: They want they want bricks and work. They want to

466
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 6: change on wall, right, So that's probably less optimistic on

467
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 6: the border security inter piece of it.

468
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 2: Boy, I have to ask you about this. We're just

469
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 2: talking about George Santos. It's an interesting scenario here because

470
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: of an election in Utah. It might actually be a wash.

471
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 2: If George Santos has expelled, the Republican majority remains the same.

472
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: I don't know if that matters to you. Do you

473
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 2: think he resigns before he's expelled? Do you think the

474
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 2: votes are there to expel.

475
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 6: Well, first, I don't think it's a wash because I

476
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 6: think the Utah seat is pretty much guaranteed to be

477
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 6: a Republican seat. So the reality is we're going to

478
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,640
Speaker 6: pick up that seat regardless, and I think that you're

479
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 6: going to be down one more member when either he's

480
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 6: expelled or he is or he does resign. I don't

481
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 6: I don't pretend to know what's in his head is

482
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 6: what he's he's going to do. I think he's gonna

483
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 6: do whatever gets them in the most press attention.

484
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 2: Called a news conference for November three.

485
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 6: I could see him coming back and having a press

486
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 6: conference and uh, but ultimately pulling out right before the

487
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 6: vote if he feels like he's gonna lose the hell.

488
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 2: So he's probably taking a temperature and seeing where I

489
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 2: think he is, probably comes together over Thanksgiving. Does the

490
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 2: conference want him out?

491
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 6: I think the conference, well, I think they're competing interest.

492
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,439
Speaker 6: I think for a lot of members they probably do

493
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 6: want him out. At the same time, we've talked about

494
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,239
Speaker 6: how narrow the majority is. It's not like they can

495
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 6: really afford additional seats, and and I think you're seeing

496
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 6: more and more announcements to retirements, and some of those

497
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 6: people may not wait till next November, so that that

498
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 6: majority could even get even smaller, which is why I

499
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 6: think a lot of Republicans would probably want to say, like,

500
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 6: we just see he's announced he's not gonna run again.

501
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 6: Let's get to to next November. But I don't think

502
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 6: that that's going to last. I think he'll probably be

503
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 6: pushed out sooner.

504
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 2: Why what a story that we won't be able to

505
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 2: say that the latest since James traffickant anymore if this

506
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 2: actually happens. Spending time with Mark Short, I have to

507
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 2: ask you about the campaign trail. The former vice president

508
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 2: is no longer running, and we're seeing a surge here,

509
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 2: it seems for Nicky Haley's campaign. Are those associated somehow?

510
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 6: I'm not so convinced they are, And I'm actually I

511
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 6: think there's been a surge in the press coverage and

512
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,479
Speaker 6: a surge and donor support for Nicki Haley, which is

513
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 6: not in consequence of Joe. Those are very important things

514
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 6: that you need. But at the same time, you've seen

515
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 6: actually former President Trump's numbers go up into the sixties.

516
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, how about that?

517
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 6: And so even though there's maybe a small boost for

518
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 6: Nicki or a small boost for DeSantis or even Chris

519
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 6: Christy in New Hampshire, the reality is that is that

520
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 6: Donald Trump is leading the field by forty to fifty points, well.

521
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 2: We've got a Monmouth pole now, yet I remembers some

522
00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 2: pole the other day show Nicki Haley vaulting into second place,

523
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 2: Hampshire rondesstant Is falling to four. It does seem like

524
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 2: there is a bit of a shift in the so

525
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:06,199
Speaker 2: called race for second.

526
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 6: There are changing places in the race for second, but

527
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 6: the delta between where that is and where Donald Trump

528
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:12,360
Speaker 6: is remains the sensitive.

529
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: Yeah.

530
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 2: Absolutely, but it's also not lost on me that the

531
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 2: only other voice on the debate stage with foreign policy

532
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 2: experience has left, and that suddenly makes Nicky Haley unique

533
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:23,679
Speaker 2: in the field.

534
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 6: I think it does create a separation for in the debate,

535
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 6: which is important. I think anytime you're in a crowded field,

536
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 6: you want to have something that segments the market and

537
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 6: differentiates yourself. And I think that with everything going on

538
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 6: in the Middle East right now, it does give her.

539
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: A much bigger platform to speak from. At this moment.

540
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 2: This is not a race, though different than other cycles,

541
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 2: not a race for vice president right Donald Trump doesn't

542
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 2: want any of them, and it doesn't seem they want

543
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 2: to be with him, isn't that.

544
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 6: I think that people's ambitions are such that what they

545
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 6: might proclaimed during the camp trail that they may be

546
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 6: more willing to serve in that role. And I think

547
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 6: you may also see that the former president Trump is

548
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 6: more willing to extend that offer if he feels like

549
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 6: it's advantageous to him. So I wouldn't I wouldn't ruin

550
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 6: any of them out yet to be to be a

551
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 6: vice presidential pick Donald Trump.

552
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 2: Nikkiy Haley, I mean she worked for him. She brings

553
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 2: the foreign policy experience and apparently a slightly different base

554
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 2: of support. I suppose anything is possible, but there'd be

555
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 2: a lot of tape to play back up.

556
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't want to pretend that she's running for

557
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 6: that at this point. I think she is running for president.

558
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 6: I do think that the president, former president is has

559
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 6: pointed many times how she made a pledge that she

560
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 6: would never run against him, and yet she did. And

561
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 6: so I'm not I'm not I want to. I don't

562
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 6: want any way to predict that that's where we're gonna

563
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 6: end up. Sure, but I do think that people's ambitions

564
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 6: are such that their stated principles can be somewhat more flexible.

565
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 2: Well, I'd love to hear from you a little bit

566
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 2: more about your former boss, and I'm sure that you

567
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 2: still talk to Mike Pence he had support him or not.

568
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 2: Kind of a unique spot on that stage, and I

569
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 2: wonder to what effect he might be able to help

570
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 2: affect the outcome of this campaign, whether he's going to

571
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 2: reserve that until later, or maybe this is just a

572
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 2: completely different chapter as you go back in the media,

573
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 2: What do you see in the future for him.

574
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 6: I think he's gonna have a lot of different opportunities Joe.

575
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 6: Right now. I don't think that he's in a hurry

576
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 6: to endorse in this race. I think he needs to

577
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 6: play out some but I think he had the opportunity

578
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 6: on the stage to talk about concerns he has about

579
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 6: where our party is going in candily, where the conservative

580
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 6: movement is going in many cases, I think walking away

581
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 6: from his time honor principles of limited government in pursuit

582
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 6: of a more populist appeal in many ways, walking away

583
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 6: from our alliances and partnerships with democracies across the globe

584
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 6: and wanting to retreat and be more of an appeasing

585
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 6: isolationist approach. And so he was able to make those points.

586
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 6: I think you're going to continue to here and make

587
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 6: those points in the future.

588
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 2: Is he glad he ran oh?

589
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 6: I think he felt he felt like it was a

590
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 6: blessing to get to spend so much time with voters

591
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 6: in Iowa New Hampshire, and I think he was grateful

592
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 6: that he had a chance to make those points on

593
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 6: the stage.

594
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 2: It's really something when you consider his career, particularly at

595
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 2: the end of the Trump administration, is involvedment in January

596
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 2: sixth and the voice that he had, which is why

597
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: I'm curious to see what it might become, because I

598
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 2: feel like he's probably not done here. But this is

599
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 2: a pretty complex time you're going to be on the

600
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: campaign trail, I guess, and I know you watched this

601
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 2: very closely. Is the media getting it right or wrong

602
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 2: on Rond de Santis because he's being labeled as the

603
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 2: Jeb Bush of this campaign.

604
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 6: I think that they're actually getting it wrong at this point.

605
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 6: I think there's no doubt that there was a lot

606
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 6: of inflation from the media about the Santa's candidacy before

607
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 6: he ran in there miss expects and so then therefore

608
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 6: the narrative is one that compares him more to Jeb

609
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 6: and it's sort of the notion of collapse. But I

610
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,479
Speaker 6: think right now to Santa's in the second place in Iowa,

611
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 6: which is the first caucus, and so I think that

612
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 6: we have to wait to get through that Iowa and

613
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 6: then we can reassess where Desante's campaign is. I think

614
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 6: it's premature to right an obituary that suggests that he's

615
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 6: following the saint path as.

616
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 2: Jeb bush Well would you see? You know how Iowa

617
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 2: can can really be a game changer. It can shake

618
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 2: things up and then it can happen again in New

619
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 2: Hampshire frequently against the grain here you remember Mike Huckabee

620
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 2: winning Rick Santorum. Is Iowa going to surprise us this time?

621
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 6: I think there will be a surprise and Iaowa, whether

622
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 6: or not it's somebody wins or whether not somebody simply

623
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 6: comes in a much closer second place or Donald Trump.

624
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 6: The expectation right now that I think the Trump campaign

625
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 6: has pushed is one that he's going to run away

626
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 6: with this. And so even if there's a candidate who finishes,

627
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 6: let's say within ten points, I think for a lot

628
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 6: of media it's going to be WHOA wait a second,

629
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 6: maybe this is actually closer. And so I do think

630
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 6: that the Trump campaign has built up exceedingly high expectations

631
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 6: for how they would do in Iowa New Hampshire, and

632
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 6: I do think that Iowa relishes the chance to sort

633
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 6: of change the narrative. Iowa voters take it very seriously.

634
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 6: As you mentioned Santorum and Huckabee as well as Barack Obama.

635
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 2: That's right.

636
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 6: All these candidates were pulling really in Obama's case in

637
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 6: the low double digits, but others high single digits, shook

638
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,479
Speaker 6: them until the fall, and so I think that people

639
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 6: forget as well. In twenty sixteen, Donald Trump did not

640
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 6: win Iowa. People just assumed that he did, but it

641
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 6: actually was Ted Cruz who won the long time, and

642
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 6: so yeah, I think there will be surprises in Iowa well.

643
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 2: So to that end, it was remarkable to watch the

644
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 2: dominos fall in the Democratic primary between Iowa New Hampshire

645
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 2: South Carolina in twenty twenty Joe Biden. We were doing

646
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 2: exit interviews with Joe Biden in Manchester and all of

647
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 2: a sudden, what the heck? Everybody dropped out within three

648
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 2: hours or something and goes flying into South Carolina and

649
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: he's He's anointed essentially the nominee. Are we going to

650
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 2: see an attempt, maybe not a successful one, but an

651
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 2: attempt to clear the field here and identify an alternative

652
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 2: Donald Trump coalesce around it.

653
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 6: Well, I think the market forces do that naturally. The

654
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 6: reality is, if you don't have the fundraising to continue on,

655
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 6: it's hard to continue on. And I think we're already

656
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 6: down to really four principal candidates, and you may be

657
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 6: in a narrow field by the time you get to Iowa.

658
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 6: So I don't know how much more there is, But Joe,

659
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 6: I do think I probably have a less contemporary perspective

660
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 6: on this. I think for a lot of the media

661
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 6: of the notion is, hey, you just need to get

662
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 6: down to one alternative to Trump. And I think that

663
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 6: what we've seen is that as candidates get out of

664
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 6: the raise, it almost builds more inevitability that Trump is

665
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 6: going to be the nominee. As we just talked about,

666
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,760
Speaker 6: as Cannas has gotten out, you've actually seen Trump numbers

667
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 6: get up above sixty percent, and as Ron DeSantis's numbers

668
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 6: collapsed or in this campaign, it wasn't like that went

669
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 6: to the rest of the field. That support went back

670
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 6: to Donald Trump. And so I'm not buying this in

671
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 6: this I think conventional wisdom that says, hey, there needs

672
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 6: to be one alternative to Trump. I think in actuality,

673
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 6: as candidates fall out, it builds more an ability that

674
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 6: Trump will be the nominee.

675
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 2: Unreal. It's like the gravitational pull of the sun. Mark Short,

676
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 2: great to see you, Happy Thanksgiving.

677
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 6: Happy Thanksgiving to you.

678
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to have you at the table here,

679
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 2: Republican strategist Mark Short with us in a fascinating conversation

680
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 2: as you would expect here on sound On, I'm Joe

681
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 2: Matthew at Washington.

682
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast.

683
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

684
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 1: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg

685
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 1: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

686
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play

687
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.

688
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 2: Patrick Dehan does this for a living. You've heard him

689
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 2: before on sound On, and he's with us again now,

690
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 2: the head of petroleum analysis at gas Buddy. It's great, Dave, Patrick,

691
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,320
Speaker 2: welcome back as we talk again ahead of another holiday weekend,

692
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 2: looking at crude. As I mentioned WTI your seventy six

693
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,399
Speaker 2: dollars a gallon and a national average at three point

694
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: thirty three. What's it going to look like once we

695
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 2: really get into the throes of wintertime.

696
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,439
Speaker 7: Well, I think we'll continue to moderate here. We've seen

697
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 7: a lot of downward pressure in the last four weeks

698
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:20,720
Speaker 7: on WTI prices, so that's translated to certainly cheaper gasoline prices.

699
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 7: We're also in the midst of seasonality. Americans simply not

700
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 7: driving as much, even though they're on the doorstep of Thanksgiving,

701
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 7: Americans really toning down their gasoline consumption. That's put a

702
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 7: lot of downward pressure on prices as well. In addition,

703
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 7: refineries wrapping up their maintenance and they're going to have

704
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 7: to find a place to put all that gasoline, and

705
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 7: all of that, coupled together with less risk from the

706
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 7: Middle East, has certainly caused an eight week drop in

707
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 7: the price of gasoline. The national average now at three

708
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 7: point thirty one a gallon. That's the lowest tally since February.

709
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 7: So just in time for a driving holiday, we're greeted

710
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 7: with some of the lowest prices in months.

711
00:36:58,080 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 2: Sounds kind of rituitive. I have to have been one.

712
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 2: I hear references to less risk in the Middle East.

713
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 2: I know there was a great concern about a second front,

714
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 2: that this might expand into something involving Iran if it

715
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 2: isn't already on a proxy level here. But is it

716
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 2: just a matter of expectations because we've still got a

717
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 2: hot war going in Gaza.

718
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 7: Yeah, it is. It's managing expectations. There is also less

719
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 7: risk in this area. Israel obviously not a major oil producer,

720
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 7: but as you mentioned, this is more of a risk

721
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,439
Speaker 7: about Iran, and certainly Iran has even suggested in recent

722
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:35,760
Speaker 7: weeks to Hamas that it's not going to get involved

723
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 7: in this, so that further reduces the amount of risk.

724
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 7: Of course, something could change, but all of this, the

725
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 7: takeaway is really that this is not impacting or slowing

726
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 7: down the flows of crude oil out of the Middle East,

727
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 7: and that's why oil prices. Initially there was a little

728
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,720
Speaker 7: bit of a risk, but this never really affected gas prices.

729
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 7: It could not overpower the seasonality that by the way,

730
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 7: we'll continue and now with crudit seventy six dollars a barrel.

731
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 7: Though it's up today, I still think there's a pretty

732
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 7: good shot that we could retest the lows that we

733
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 7: saw last winter when the national average bottomed out at

734
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 7: three zero five a gallon.

735
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 2: And that's an economic indicator, right, that's a cooling economy,

736
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 2: which would be consistent with a lot of the data

737
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 2: we're seeing. There's really fewer is reliable though, as the

738
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 2: price of gas.

739
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 7: Yeah, certainly the price of gasoline and economic barometer, and

740
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 7: of course the price of gas is contingent on gasoline

741
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:32,800
Speaker 7: consumption and that's been weakening. So certainly some signals from consumption,

742
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:36,800
Speaker 7: which gas Buty's latest estiment last week, the US consumed

743
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 7: eight point four to six million barrels. I know the

744
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 7: EIA data was quite a bit higher, almost a midsummer print,

745
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 7: but our data is suggestive of a consumer that's a

746
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 7: bit reluctant to fill up at the same pace they

747
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,760
Speaker 7: did even a weeks prior. So certainly not a positive

748
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 7: sign in the economy. But you know, Americans feeling the

749
00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 7: lower prices. Sixty thousand stations now crossing out of states

750
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 7: with gasoline under three dollars, twelve states under three dollars,

751
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 7: so a lot more Americans looking at the pump and

752
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 7: feeling a little bit more normal, it may not boost

753
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 7: their holiday spending.

754
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 2: You sound optimistic as we spend time with Patrick to

755
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 2: hunt from gas Buddy. We keep asking the White House

756
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 2: about refilling the spr and when you see seventy five

757
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, we're getting back into that range that

758
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 2: the Energy Department said it was comfortable with. Are we

759
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 2: about to see a lot more bids because I know

760
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 2: it's not as simple as just going in the market

761
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 2: and buying these barrels, or is this just something that's

762
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 2: going to take a generation because so much has been used.

763
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 7: Well, I mean, I'd really be hoping with the moves

764
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 7: that the Department of Energy and the White House has

765
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 7: been making and preparation to fill this that now that

766
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,919
Speaker 7: the strike price, you know, was hit seventy nine dollars

767
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 7: a varrow was the price that the DOE clearly outlined,

768
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 7: I'd be hoping that they were active in the market. Now.

769
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 7: They did just announce last week a one point six

770
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 7: million barrel buy back. That's you know, as we know,

771
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 7: that's a needle in the haystack kind of amount. So

772
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 7: they really need to ramp up. And as long as

773
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 7: the price of WTI has remained below seventy nine dollars.

774
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 7: I really hope that the government's in a position to

775
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 7: buy back at these prices, considering the average selling price

776
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 7: you know last year was ninety five dollars a barrel.

777
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:24,879
Speaker 2: When we consider folks heating their homes this winter, what's

778
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 2: the gap going to look like between those who use

779
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 2: heating oil and those who use natural gas.

780
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 7: Well, natural gas has come down far more than what

781
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 7: we've seen for heating oil, and simply because in light

782
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 7: of the Russia warn Ukraine, there's been a lot of changes,

783
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 7: a lot of increase in natural gas production. And we

784
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,760
Speaker 7: benefited last year from a warmer than expected winter as well.

785
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 7: You know, we just did not see withdraws from natural

786
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 7: gas reserves is significant, and so we came out of

787
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 7: winter above average, and now natural gas inventories have continued

788
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 7: to run well average, and so that's put a lot

789
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 7: of downward pressure on natural gas prices. But home heating

790
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 7: oil is subject to the refining constraints that we've been

791
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 7: dealing with the last few years, and they aren't completely resolved.

792
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 7: I mean, more refining capacities come online, but all it

793
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 7: would take is one you know, extended period, a couple

794
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 7: of weeks of bone chilling temperatures in the Northeast for

795
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,280
Speaker 7: those home heating oil prices to shoot up to potentially

796
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 7: four or fifty or five dollars a gallon.

797
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 2: Again, well, you just answered my next question, then, so

798
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: is this the year to cut up the oil tank again,

799
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 2: get rid of it and go to natural gas?

800
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 7: Well, I think now more than ever, you know, I

801
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:39,400
Speaker 7: do expect home heating oil price to be lower than

802
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 7: last year. But to your point, there's probably never been

803
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 7: a better time more cost savings associated with making the

804
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 7: jump over to natural gas, and that's that's what we've

805
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 7: been seeing recent here. So I'm sure that's a trend

806
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 7: that will continue.

807
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 2: Patrick. It's good to have you. I don't know if

808
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:55,799
Speaker 2: you're driving, is someone in your business actually get in

809
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 2: the car around Thanksgiving? Or is that the reason why?

810
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 7: You know, I was out of scouting prices just a

811
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 7: couple hours ago. I've been making the rounds and you know,

812
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 7: pleasantly surprised. But I'll be staying home for Thanksgiving, and

813
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 7: you know, I was talking to some other folks as

814
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 7: well that you know, a lot of us seem to

815
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,479
Speaker 7: be staying closer to home and gas buddy survey found

816
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 7: that a lot of Americans forty one percent are hitting

817
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 7: the road, but that means a lot of them aren't.

818
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 2: Wait, you're really driving around scouting gas prices. You have

819
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 2: some way to get the prices in another way.

820
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 7: I was scouting prices as I was running around to

821
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 7: get ready for Thanksgiving next week.

822
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 2: I guess you can't help yourself. I love the image

823
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,760
Speaker 2: of I can't I have to gas station to gas station.

824
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 2: Well absolutely, yeah, your first hand reporting. It's good to

825
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 2: have you. Patrick, Happy Thanksgiving. I hope you have a

826
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 2: safe holiday. Come back and see us again soon. The

827
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 2: head of petroleum analysis at gasbuddy dot com. I picture

828
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 2: him like Henry Hill driving or I'll look it up

829
00:42:51,719 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 2: the midshields. It's not a helicopter. Patrick, Thanks for listening

830
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 2: to the sound on podcast. Make sure to subscribe if

831
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you

832
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:08,319
Speaker 2: get your podcasts. And you can find us live every

833
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at

834
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:15,320
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.