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Speaker 2: Malex Deel alongside Paul Sweeney.

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Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio where we cover all the

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Speaker 3: thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries worldwide. And

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Speaker 3: we're going to go to one right now on BECHP

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Speaker 3: and Anglo Americans. So BCHP is one of the world's

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Speaker 3: largest metal producers and copper producers are huge, and they

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Speaker 3: have made a third bid for Anglo American, which is

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Speaker 3: another copper producer but has other stuff.

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Speaker 2: They have some South African assets.

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Speaker 3: They have De Beer's, for example, the diamond producer, They

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Speaker 3: have a fertilizer, etc. And BHP really want wants to

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Speaker 3: buy this company for its copper assets. Their third bid.

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Speaker 3: The problem is it's complicated. They want to have Anglo

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Speaker 3: Americans spin off all of its South African assets before

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Speaker 3: the takeover, and that makes things a little daisy and

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Speaker 3: Anglo American doesn't really like it. The difference is is

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Speaker 3: that Anglo American is now talking to BHP and they

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Speaker 3: will talk until May twenty nine. They have not yet talked.

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Speaker 3: So let's get more on this. Grants for Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 3: Global head of Metals and Mining. So this bid, this

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Speaker 3: third bid is almost fifty billion dollars US.

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Speaker 2: I'm talking about. What do you think?

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Speaker 4: I must be honest, Hi, thank you for having me on.

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Speaker 4: It's further than I thought BHP would have gone, and

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Speaker 4: it just shows how really keen they are on getting

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Speaker 4: hold of Anglers, particularly the copper assets. There are some

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Speaker 4: other interesting assets as well, but I think it just

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Speaker 4: shows you what value BHP is ascribing to the whole

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Speaker 4: Anglo portfolio. I must say, when we do a some

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Speaker 4: of the parts valuation, we get to around about twenty

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Speaker 4: nine pounds, which is kind of where the offer stands

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Speaker 4: today on an undisturbed share price basis.

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Speaker 3: An undisturbed share price means what before the bid was,

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Speaker 3: before the rumor mill got the bid out, and then

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Speaker 3: the price.

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Speaker 4: Pace exactly, yeah, exactly, So the price is based on

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Speaker 4: the twenty third of April, so before before the news

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Speaker 4: came out. Basically on today's numbers, it's closer to thirty

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Speaker 4: one pounds. That would be today's offer, which which kind

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Speaker 4: of puts it above as some of the parts valuation.

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Speaker 4: If you really want to stretch the valuation, I can

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Speaker 4: get it to thirty eight pounds, but then you have

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Speaker 4: to do some really interesting things. You have to say

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Speaker 4: the piers is worth what it is on the book

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Speaker 4: which Anglo has, which is around seven point two billion,

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Speaker 4: and given today's diamond market, that's a stretch. And you

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Speaker 4: also have to ascribe positive value to Woodsmith the fertilizer

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Speaker 4: project up in the north of England, which you know

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Speaker 4: many would consider it's still a cost to the business

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Speaker 4: and and and probably ascribe very little value. So you know,

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Speaker 4: it's a it's a I think it's a it's a

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Speaker 4: decent offer, but as you mentioned, it's the deal structure

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Speaker 4: that seems to be the roadblock for Anglo American.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and on that end, if I were Anglo American,

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Speaker 5: I'm like, no, if you want to buy this company,

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Speaker 5: this is the company you guys deal with that afterwards,

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Speaker 5: why make us go through you know all the process

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Speaker 5: of doing it. I mean, is that kind of where

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Speaker 5: Anglo American is right now in term position?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think two things. One one is yes, you're right.

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Speaker 4: The challenge will be that if if Anglos tries to

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Speaker 4: spin off both Amplats and Cumber, there will be some

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Speaker 4: shareholders who won't be able to hold it in their portfolios.

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Speaker 4: Their mandates just won't allow them. And also they probably

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Speaker 4: may not want to own pure play Platinum or iron

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Speaker 4: Ore companies. So so you know, if you have a

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Speaker 4: lot of force sellers, that puts some of the value

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Speaker 4: in question for these two businesses. But I would say, look,

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Speaker 4: I mean Angler have kind of opened the door a

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Speaker 4: little bit because they've said, well, you know, we will

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Speaker 4: spin off Anglo Platinum, we will deal with we are

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Speaker 4: going to deal with this issue because you know, we

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Speaker 4: think that a slimmer version of the company without Anglo

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Speaker 4: Platinum is best for both companies. So they've kind of

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Speaker 4: slightly opened up the door in terms of, well, we're

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Speaker 4: going to do half of that anyway. So perhaps a

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Speaker 4: compromise for BHP would be Tosaka, will you do that

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Speaker 4: and we'll deal with CUMBA that that's possibly the next

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Speaker 4: sort of compromise that may come out.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's why it's so funny because after BHP

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Speaker 3: came out with the first offer, then Angler, to kind

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Speaker 3: of fend them off, was like, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, right, we will divest a couple of these assets.

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Speaker 3: So they're like weirdly giving approval to the deal, but

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Speaker 3: also not at this same time, it's very odd taking

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Speaker 3: a step back for a second ground.

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Speaker 2: Why does BHP want Anglo so badly?

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Speaker 4: I think, I think, well, there are two reasons. One,

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Speaker 4: I think there is a bit of there. There was

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Speaker 4: a bit of opportunism because Anglo share price was relative

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Speaker 4: to every every everyone else there will the diversified miners

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Speaker 4: was under pressure after they cut production guidance and the

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Speaker 4: share price reacted badly on the back of that. So

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Speaker 4: there was a there is some opportunism. But if you

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Speaker 4: look at the sort of scope and the quality of

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Speaker 4: their copper assets, if you look at it on a

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Speaker 4: margin basis, just a simple margin basis, their copper business

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Speaker 4: actually generates better margins than BHP's overall. Now, in part

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Speaker 4: because BHP has Olympic Dam in South Australia, which has

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Speaker 4: been a challenging asset for them, But nevertheless, the quality

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Speaker 4: is really good and they have a lot of expansion

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Speaker 4: options within their copper portfolio. So these are really good

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Speaker 4: assets and it would be very difficult to get hold of.

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Speaker 4: So I think, you know, it's I can see that

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Speaker 4: the attractiveness in the whole copper portfolio for BHP.

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Speaker 5: Grant, are you as bullish on copper as.

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Speaker 2: The rest of the universe? The rest of the universe.

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Speaker 4: Let me put it this way, I think the current

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Speaker 4: price has got well away from where we are on

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Speaker 4: a fundamental basis, So I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 4: speculative interest in the metal. And you know, just as

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Speaker 4: a as a very rough gauge, the amount of interest

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Speaker 4: I'm getting from from more generalists people I haven't spoken

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Speaker 4: to before kind of gives me that rough sense that

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Speaker 4: you know, I think we're very very squarely in a

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Speaker 4: bull market, but there is a lot of speculative interest

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Speaker 4: in the in the metal as well, so you know, yes,

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Speaker 4: I can see the long term appeal. I just think

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Speaker 4: where we are currently, we're a little bit of drift

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Speaker 4: from where fundamentals should suggest the price should be.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's all cyclical structural thing, right, structural shift We

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Speaker 3: need copper for the long term data centers, for the grid,

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Speaker 3: for the power industry, for the green transition. But it's

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Speaker 3: still cyclical, right, Like it's still going to be about

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Speaker 3: China's property sector is not so great, et cetera. How

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Speaker 3: do you think this plays out? So Anglo is going

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Speaker 3: to talk to BHP until May twenty ninth, what do

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Speaker 3: you think happens in these seven days?

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Speaker 4: Well, there's got to well, there's got to be a

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Speaker 4: bit of movement. I think the interesting thing if you

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Speaker 4: if you read the Angler response, there wasn't there wasn't

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Speaker 4: you know, it wasn't there that the BHP's bid undervalued

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Speaker 4: the company. So all it's all going to well, I

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Speaker 4: think it all boils down to the deal structure. Now,

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Speaker 4: you know, as I say, BHP is willing to compromise

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Speaker 4: on perhaps Cumber, they move closer together, or there's some

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Speaker 4: sort of adjustment where bhd's BHP does lift an offer

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Speaker 4: in lieu of the fact that there's this risk that

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Speaker 4: if they have to sell Cumber or spin it off,

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Speaker 4: this this flowback risk. So I think that's that's what

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Speaker 4: the discussion point is going to be. You know, it

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Speaker 4: depends on how on the willingness of of Anglo and

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Speaker 4: what both parties to compromise a little bit more.

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Speaker 2: I guess all right, Gram really appreciate it. Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much.

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Speaker 3: Grants for Bloomberg Intelligence, a global head of metals and mining.

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Speaker 2: On the latest, you're.

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Speaker 3: Let's get more on all of those. Jim Bartasha's Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 3: The senior analyst covers retail, staples and packaged food.

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Speaker 2: She's joining us, all right, Jennifer, we'll walk us through

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Speaker 2: the Target numbers.

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Speaker 6: Well, so, when we saw the results today, obviously Target

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Speaker 6: missed on profit, which is really one of the catalysts

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Speaker 6: behind the stock being down today. But they are very

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Speaker 6: optimistic about second quarter and for the rest of the year,

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Speaker 6: and so I think there's a little bit of reticence

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Speaker 6: about how realistic that is when it comes to second

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Speaker 6: quarter in terms of same store sales. You know, Target

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Speaker 6: says that they're going to return to profit, like they're

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Speaker 6: going to return to growth in second quarter. It's feasible,

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Speaker 6: but remember last year second quarter is when they had

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Speaker 6: the blowback from all of the boycotts, so they have

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Speaker 6: a really easy comparison when you talk about a year

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Speaker 6: over year. So that return to growth, yes, but there's

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Speaker 6: a caveat around it. That means to me that the

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Speaker 6: second half is going to be really important if they're

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Speaker 6: going to reach those goals that they put out today.

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Speaker 5: Is the Target shopper the same similar, no relation to

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Speaker 5: the Walmart shopper.

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Speaker 6: Well, historically speaking, the Target shopper has been a slightly

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Speaker 6: higher income household. They tend to be a little bit

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Speaker 6: more fashion forward, fashion focus type individuals, so there's been overlap.

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Speaker 6: But Walmart has slowly been encroaching on what has been

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Speaker 6: Target gets kind of main audience, and Target has seen

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Speaker 6: that their customers are under a lot of pressure because

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Speaker 6: they're sort of middle income households. There's been a lot

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Speaker 6: of inflationary pressure, a lot of cutbacks and discretionary spending,

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Speaker 6: so there's been kind of pressure from both sides, and

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Speaker 6: so Walmart says they're going to up their private label game,

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Speaker 6: especially in apparel that could be a threat to Target,

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Speaker 6: but it is one of Target's core strengths. So if

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Speaker 6: they can get people to come back and start engaging again,

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Speaker 6: that's really what historically has helped Target drive their success.

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Speaker 3: So reaffirming their guidance for the full year, I mean,

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Speaker 3: like you mentioned, that means they're going to have to

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Speaker 3: really deliver in the back of what are the levers

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Speaker 3: they can pull to do that.

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Speaker 6: So from a profit perspective, they have a lot of

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Speaker 6: things that are that they've been doing in terms of

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Speaker 6: cost control, in terms of streamlining their supply chain. Their

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Speaker 6: inventory was down in another seven percent this quarter. Those

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Speaker 6: are all great things because it helps make them more

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Speaker 6: efficient and cost effective. So from a margin perspective, you know,

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Speaker 6: there's still some runway to continue to expand margins. The

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Speaker 6: real question is are they going to be able to

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Speaker 6: drive sales growth. What's concerning is that the in store

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Speaker 6: sales for same store sales are still significantly lower. And

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Speaker 6: you know, part of the idea behind the discretionary categories

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Speaker 6: is that people come into stores and they browse and

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Speaker 6: they find an outfit or they find an accessory. And

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Speaker 6: it's great that digital sales are reaccelerating, but if people

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Speaker 6: aren't in the store, that's a hard thing for Target

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Speaker 6: to deal with.

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Speaker 5: Hey, Jen, want to think back to the Walmart releases

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Speaker 5: that I've really paid attention to. I always see double digit,

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Speaker 5: maybe twenty percent e commerce sales growth. How does Target

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Speaker 5: do there?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 6: Target actually does pretty well in terms of digital sales growth,

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Speaker 6: but there's a very different strategy. Walmart is pursuing a

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Speaker 6: strategy of as many possible items as possible on the

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Speaker 6: Walmart dot com. They do a lot of third party sales.

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Speaker 6: When it comes to Target, they're broader shurtment is much

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Speaker 6: more curated, and so they are very thoughtful about which

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Speaker 6: vendors they bring onto the Target dot com to enhance

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Speaker 6: the offering that Target has. So it's it's there's there're

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Speaker 6: different different approaches to e commerce. Both are seeing some success,

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Speaker 6: but you can't really compare them, you know, strictly side

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Speaker 6: by side.

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Speaker 3: What other company, Like, what did you make of then TJX,

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Speaker 3: for example, because in some ways they can be immune

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Speaker 3: from the slowdown, right because everyone me included will go shop.

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Speaker 3: There are we seeing that reflected in the numbers?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think the strong results from TJX

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Speaker 6: today just underscore that people still like the treasure Hunt,

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Speaker 6: but people are seeking value. And one of the things

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Speaker 6: that Target talked about today is that they need to

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Speaker 6: reinforce that value proposition. That's part of why they've rejiggered

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Speaker 6: their entire Target loyalty program with Target Circle TJX. Everybody

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Speaker 6: knows you can go and you have the potential to

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Speaker 6: find something that is an amazing deal, and that's enough

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Speaker 6: to draw people into stores. Target has has gotten a

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Speaker 6: little bit away from that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, see paulism.

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Speaker 3: So Paul's never been in a TJX, so I don't

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Speaker 3: think he truly understands the beauty of this.

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Speaker 5: I went to my first Walmart last weekend. You didn't, Yeah,

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Speaker 5: I'm having.

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Speaker 3: So that's like a semi gold star. So they have

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Speaker 3: not only just discounted stuff, but they have the runway

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Speaker 3: and that's the jam. That is designer stuff on some

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Speaker 3: serious sale and you can get that on clearance and

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Speaker 3: you're looking at like a ninety percent off a designer

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Speaker 3: kind of situation.

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Speaker 5: Do you know beforehanded whether it's going to be there?

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Speaker 2: No, that's that's that's fun.

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Speaker 3: Then you add the treasure hunt and you don't know

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Speaker 3: the beauty that will be unveiled as you go in.

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Speaker 2: Am I selling this appropriately?

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Speaker 3: Jen?

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Speaker 6: Absolutely? I mean that is that is some of the appeal.

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Speaker 6: You just you never know what you're gonna find, and

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Speaker 6: so you go as often as you as you can

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Speaker 6: because there's a chance you'll find that amazing deal.

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Speaker 5: What's the promotional environment out there, Jenner. Are the Walmarts,

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Speaker 5: the tjx's, the targets. Are they putting out a lot

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Speaker 5: of promotions to get people in this show store or

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Speaker 5: to click that button?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, there's the promotional environment has been escalating, and so

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Speaker 6: we talk you hear Walmart talk about rollbacks that's basically

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Speaker 6: putting things on sale or discounts. Target talked about cutting

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Speaker 6: prices on by the end of the summer up to

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Speaker 6: five thousand items, all for essential So the idea is

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Speaker 6: to try to advertise that there's value proposition there and

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Speaker 6: you know in force that they're they're looking at for

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Speaker 6: the customer, trying to get people to engage in in

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Speaker 6: coming back and perhaps buying a little bit more. And

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Speaker 6: let's be honest, it doesn't hurt from a public relations

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Speaker 6: perspective when you have the White House talking about retailers

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Speaker 6: not being responsible enough and rolling back costs on essentials.

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Speaker 6: So there's certainly a little bit of a play there

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Speaker 6: to help appease some of that political pressure.

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Speaker 2: Is but that doesn't make me want to buy the

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Speaker 2: stock though.

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Speaker 6: No, But but it does, but it does help it,

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Speaker 6: you know, it does help ultimately from a consumer perspective.

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Speaker 6: If you're if you if you think that it's a

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Speaker 6: better value to shop there, or that you're getting more

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Speaker 6: for your money, you're more inclined to shop there, and

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Speaker 6: that ultimately leads to your traffic and your sales, and

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Speaker 6: that is what is appealing to investors.

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Speaker 7: What are the.

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Speaker 5: Dollar stores seeing these days? Are they seeing a pickup

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Speaker 5: in traffic? Maybe people trading down from a Walmart or Target.

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Speaker 6: There's been some trade down into the dollar stores, and

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Speaker 6: we tend to see that every time we go through

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Speaker 6: sort of an economic depression. But one of the challenges

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Speaker 6: for the dollar stores is that people are coming in,

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Speaker 6: but they've abandoned the discretionary spending, even though at a

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Speaker 6: dollar store the discretionary spending is not that expensive, so

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Speaker 6: their consumables mix. For example, a Dollar General is close

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Speaker 6: to eighty percent of their sales are what we could

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Speaker 6: be considered consumable items. That is good in terms of

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Speaker 6: people coming into the store, but it's not great for

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Speaker 6: the long term mix for the company because those are

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Speaker 6: very low margin sales. They're high frequency, but people have

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Speaker 6: been really watching those, you know, watching their wallets, and

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Speaker 6: so the basket sizes are a little smaller. The mix

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Speaker 6: is more just you know, more consumable. So we'll be

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Speaker 6: watching for any signs that they're getting some hiring, hiring

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Speaker 6: come households coming in to spend on those more discretionary items,

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Speaker 6: or that the their their core consumers are loosening spending

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Speaker 6: a little bit. But honestly, this quarter is probably not

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Speaker 6: going to be you know, panning out.

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Speaker 2: No, definitely not.

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Speaker 3: I'm target falling the most I should say, going back

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Speaker 3: to Target, the mostion is November of twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 3: Does that feel extreme to you, considering that the actual

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Speaker 3: numbers weren't like terrible terrible?

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Speaker 6: I think the I think there's a you shouldn't dis

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Speaker 6: Target for being Target. I guess this is my response

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Speaker 6: to that. And what I mean, like, what I mean

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Speaker 6: by that is, you know, Target has always been about

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Speaker 6: the fashion, It's been about the discretionary categories. It's been

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Speaker 6: about home decoor, it's been about things you know, of

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Speaker 6: that nature. They've never tried to be, you know, heavy

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Speaker 6: on the essentials category. And so when you've got consumer

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Speaker 6: weakness and you've got people who aren't spending in those categories,

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Speaker 6: it's hard to beat up Target for being true to

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Speaker 6: what their values are. And so you know, you know

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Speaker 6: what I would say is, you know, if we see

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Speaker 6: some improvement in just the discretionary spending, Target will start

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Speaker 6: to take off again. You know, their sales will accelerate,

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Speaker 6: people will be coming back. It's it seems more of

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Speaker 6: a waiting game for when the consumer is ready for

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Speaker 6: that at this point.

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Speaker 2: All right, Jen, thanks a lot. We think you're just awesome.

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Speaker 2: Thanks so much.

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Speaker 3: Jim Bartasha's Bloomberg Intelligence senior retail, staples and packaged food

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Speaker 3: analysts Paul, So, can you go to a TJX or

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Speaker 3: like a target sometimes, like we just do like one every.

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Speaker 5: Month space a little bit? Is there stuff for dudes

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Speaker 5: in TJX or? Okay?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean no, I mean you're definitely gonna hate it,

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Speaker 2: like this is not made.

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Speaker 3: For you, but here, but go anyway, channel check.

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Speaker 1: It you're listening to the Bloomberg and Intelligence podcast. Catch

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00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:04,560
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car

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Speaker 1: Play and then broyd Outo with the Bloomberg Business App.

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00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,440
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Let's just be totally clear here.

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Speaker 3: Nothing's going to matter until today when Nvidia comes out

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Speaker 3: after the closing bill, and then when Future's open later

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Speaker 3: on that night.

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Speaker 2: That's when we're going to see the action. Okay, let's

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Speaker 2: just be all to be clear.

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Speaker 5: On Uportunately, we have cow Master Tim Sentovik. They'll be

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Speaker 5: breaking it down on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: That's right, so we'll have that.

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Speaker 3: Sylvia Jablonski is chief executive officer and chief investment officer

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Speaker 3: over it Defiance ETFs.

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Speaker 2: She joins us.

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Speaker 3: Now, Hey, Sylvia, how how will Nvidia move the market?

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Speaker 3: I know that's such a silly question, but in reality,

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Speaker 3: what is its potential to move after hours?

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Speaker 8: Good morning, Alex, great to see you.

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Speaker 9: You know, I think it certainly has a huge, huge

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Speaker 9: impact on how markets move, and we'll have a huge

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Speaker 9: impact on markets move on how markets move based on

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Speaker 9: what we hear after ours.

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Speaker 8: You know, I just like, look back over the couple

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Speaker 8: of years.

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Speaker 9: I feel like, when you know, we had the tech

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Speaker 9: recession in twenty twenty two, Apple was kind of the

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Speaker 9: darling that was holding up amongst the others. And then

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Speaker 9: you know, last year everything kind of rebounded and then

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Speaker 9: the story was you know, Tesla for a while until

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Speaker 9: it started to crash, and then it quickly transitioned over

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Speaker 9: to chat ChiPT and you know Microsoft and the video

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Speaker 9: now and so the video is the.

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Speaker 8: Start of the show this year, and whatever Jens M.

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Speaker 9: Wong says is going to dictate whether or not we have,

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Speaker 9: you know, a rally at.

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Speaker 8: Least in the short term, or pull back in the

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Speaker 8: short term.

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Speaker 9: I don't think, you know, I don't think that the

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Speaker 9: result anyone thinks the results are going to be devastating, right,

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Speaker 9: and the stock does tend to move around earnings, but

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Speaker 9: you know, the future outlook here is great either way.

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Speaker 5: Hey, so be one of the many reasons we like

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Speaker 5: chatting with you as we get a good feel for

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Speaker 5: what's happening in the ETF space. Are we seeing We're

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Speaker 5: seeing some big moves in a commodity space, whether it's

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Speaker 5: gold or copper or chocolate. You know, are you seeing

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Speaker 5: that in the flows in your ETFs.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, we're you know, we're seeing that.

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Speaker 9: So we actually we actually have a couple of ETFs

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Speaker 9: that are you know, that are focused on things like

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Speaker 9: hydrogen and things like that, but just generally in terms

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Speaker 9: of the market and in terms of where we think

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Speaker 9: the puck is going, you know, there's just so much

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Speaker 9: interest right now in uranium and in copper uranium.

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Speaker 8: You have the story of.

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Speaker 9: The sanctions on Russia, you have this global commitment to

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Speaker 9: go carbon neutral or try to go carbon neutral, you know,

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Speaker 9: the different climate energy committees committed to that, to using

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Speaker 9: nuclear power by twenty fifty to go you know, kind

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Speaker 9: of completely green. And it's in such short supply right now.

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Speaker 9: So the amount of just growth and performance that we

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Speaker 9: see in uranium is absolutely you know, startling at the moment.

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Speaker 9: And then I think another one is copper. And we're

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Speaker 9: talking about Navidia tonight. Well, in order for Navidia and

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Speaker 9: all of these companies to run their data centers and

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Speaker 9: continue to do you know, supercompute and quantum computing and

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Speaker 9: processing this data and actually just managing the heat that

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Speaker 9: these computers give off, you need copper. So copper is

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Speaker 9: you know, one of the most excellent conductors of electricity.

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Speaker 9: It's efficient in terms of its ability to absorb heat

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Speaker 9: better and you know kind of run things more efficiently,

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Speaker 9: and so the need for copper is very much on

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Speaker 9: the rise around this navidia Ai story.

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Speaker 3: I love that you mentioned that, and I also well,

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Speaker 3: I love that Paul mentioned that and then you talked

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Speaker 3: about it. I also wonder if you're seeing something similar,

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Speaker 3: say with utilities and utility ETFs, because as you pointed out,

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Speaker 3: you need copper for all these data centers, but you

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Speaker 3: also need energy. And we've seen utilities really outperform this year,

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Speaker 3: and that's usually defensive trade, but I'm considering if it's

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Speaker 3: actually a growth trade at this point. And I'm wondering

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Speaker 3: what you're noticing in terms of flows.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I've been thinking a lot about that too, actually,

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Speaker 9: And then to pile on top of that, you know,

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Speaker 9: the energy needed, the different you know, kind of utilities

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00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 9: needed to like then we kind of like forget about

438
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 9: the nuts and bolts because they tend to be a

439
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 9: little more boring than you know, the semiconductors that are

440
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 9: making robots and doing all these things. But you need

441
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 9: them to essentially on all of these innovations, but on

442
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 9: top of that, I would pile on things like tech

443
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,439
Speaker 9: and connectivity, right, things like five G and then like

444
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 9: six G the next generation of telecommunications.

445
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 8: You know, you need companies like T Mobile and AT.

446
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 9: And T and you know Crown Castle and like these

447
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 9: these these cell towers that are in the middle of

448
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 9: the country helping to foster low latency, foster smart.

449
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 8: Cities and communications.

450
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 9: Because you can create all of these you know, high

451
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 9: tech types of devices and machines and data, but but

452
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,640
Speaker 9: they actually have to flow through to wherever they're supposed

453
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:35,919
Speaker 9: to go, and so you need kind of like the

454
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 9: old school telecommunications for that too. So I think that's

455
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 9: how you broughten out the AI trade. Right, Like, if

456
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 9: if you have Fomo from Navidia, look to that stuff,

457
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 9: look to the utilities, look to the copper, look to

458
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,199
Speaker 9: the the five G stuff. You know, that's where the

459
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 9: opportunities still lie.

460
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 5: So but and you've I think you've been pretty consistent

461
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 5: Sylvia that you like the stocks in the in that

462
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 5: tech space, whether it's you know, yeah, is that still

463
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 5: the case, or you concerned that maybe, I don't know,

464
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 5: valuations they might be a little bit stretched, or how

465
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 5: do you think about those big tech names these days?

466
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 9: So I remind myself every time I feel like a

467
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 9: tech stock has gotten too high to buy and I'm

468
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 9: looking at like a three to four percent pullback, and

469
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 9: I'm thinking about, you know, whether or not I should

470
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 9: dive in because of where evaluations are. I start running data, right,

471
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 9: I start running like the last forty years, last thirty years,

472
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 9: the last twenty years, the last ten years. And if

473
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 9: you just run the NASDAK performance as compared to anything

474
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 9: like broad based s and P five hundred, you know,

475
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 9: russell doubt whatever it is, the performance is like is

476
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 9: like twice over a decade, twice out of the SMP

477
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 9: over twenty years, twice out of the SMP and so on.

478
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 9: And you know what leads the Nasdaq, it's tech, right.

479
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 9: So I just think that over time, in terms of

480
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 9: our ability to actually experience continued GDP growth, to actually

481
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 9: experience innovation and you know, make up for population issues,

482
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 9: the job worker demand issues, all of these things, you

483
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 9: need technology. So I just don't think it's going away.

484
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 9: And you know, if you look at things and what

485
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 9: they're doing, I mean they're growing to their valuations.

486
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 3: You also talk about if you look at stocks in

487
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 3: this space, you look at io n Q, I have

488
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:08,439
Speaker 3: no idea what that is.

489
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 9: Yeah, so that's a quantum compute. That's a quantum computing company.

490
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 9: And then again this is on my thesis of so

491
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 9: we have AI. We're so excited about AI, and like, gosh,

492
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 9: don't you wish you held in the video and Microsoft

493
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 9: the day before you know, the chat cheapt you know,

494
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,239
Speaker 9: mania hit the market, let's call it.

495
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 8: So I think that's where we are with quantum computing.

496
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 8: I think that that's going to be the next mania

497
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 8: that hits the market because people are starting to realize

498
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 8: that you have all of this. What does AI need.

499
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 9: In order to work? AI needs data and it needs

500
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 9: data that's correct. It needs data that's efficient. It needs

501
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 9: data that runs in two different you know, parallels and

502
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 9: parameters versus you know, a binary state, which is what

503
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 9: the computers we have do. Now you need supercomputers and

504
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 9: quantum computers. And then companies like ion Q they do

505
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 9: just that, right, They they run data, they run simulations

506
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 9: in two different states at the same time. And so

507
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 9: I think that that's necessary for AI to ever be

508
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 9: you know, really tangible and impact like all the different

509
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 9: sectors out their healthcare, financials, you know, banks, aerospace and

510
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 9: defense and all that.

511
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 8: You have to compute this data.

512
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 5: Hey, Sylvia, if you're tech exposure here, how concerned are

513
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 5: you about maybe an interest rate environment which is I

514
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,959
Speaker 5: guess maybe a little bit higher for a little bit longer.

515
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 8: You know, it's there.

516
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 9: I would say I was a lot more concerned about

517
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 9: it a couple of you know, like like a couple

518
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 9: of months ago. But it does look like in facial

519
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 9: inflation is continuing to trend downward. I don't think, you know,

520
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 9: the feed is pretty clear on the fact that they're

521
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,439
Speaker 9: not looking to raise rates if it's higher for a

522
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 9: little bit longer. I mean, it's just it's not feeding

523
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 9: into their earnings. I think it impacts when we think

524
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 9: about tech. I think it definitely impacts the companies you

525
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 9: know that Alex just asks about like ion Q that

526
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 9: that are a little bit smaller, they have higher debt

527
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 9: levels to service and things like that. But you know,

528
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 9: or even like the Tesla's right that that are that

529
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 9: you know have kind of like high levels of debt

530
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,919
Speaker 9: and innovation and whatnot around their AI and the EV's

531
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 9: and all that. But I think the large cap companies

532
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 9: like Microsoft, Google, it's just been much to do about

533
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 9: nothing for them. You know, they keep performing, they're doing buybacks,

534
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 9: that earnings are up offits are supposed to be up

535
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 9: twelve to thirteen percent in coming years.

536
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 8: So I'm not that worried about it.

537
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 9: Of course, you know, if it turns the other way,

538
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 9: then you know, of course it matters.

539
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 8: Right, we're gonna get a pull.

540
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 2: Back, Sylvia, So good to catch up.

541
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 3: Love chatting with you, Sylvia Deablonski, CEO and CIO of

542
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 3: Defiance ETFs.

543
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

544
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

545
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

546
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

547
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:45,680
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty Well.

548
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 5: Bloomberg periodically does a poll, a political poll with Morning

549
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 5: Console than the latest poll is available, and according to

550
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 5: the Pole, half of swing state voters say they're worried

551
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 5: about violence surrounding the US presidential election, and many swing

552
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 5: state voters also say they're worried about about the growing

553
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,439
Speaker 5: number or growing presidence of artificial intelligence, and that it

554
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 5: could one day diminish privacy and hurt job prospects. So

555
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 5: let's get some more color on this. Jody Schneider joins us.

556
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 5: She's a political news director for Bloomberg Television Radio. She

557
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 5: joins us in Washington, d C. Jody, I don't think

558
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 5: we've ever had this whole concern about violence surrounding an

559
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 5: election before, but I guess post January sixth, it's a thing.

560
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is.

561
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 10: And we asked specifically about this because we've been doing

562
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 10: this poll now since last fall, as you know, Paul,

563
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 10: and we've been asking about the candidates themselves, and we

564
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 10: continued to ask about that, but we wanted to ask

565
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 10: on some issues as well, and this seemed to be

566
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 10: one that's percolating out there quite a bit that we

567
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 10: hear a lot from, and so we went and asked

568
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 10: the voters themselves, as the you in these swing states,

569
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 10: in these seven swing states, and as you noted, about

570
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 10: half say they are concerned about that, and it seems

571
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 10: to be pretty evenly split between Republicans and Democrats in

572
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 10: terms of that concern.

573
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 2: So that's real and that.

574
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 10: Could affect them in terms of how they vote, perhaps

575
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 10: whether they vote, because both parties really need a big turnout.

576
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,719
Speaker 10: It's going to be, as everyone expects, a close election,

577
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 10: close in terms of the popular vote, and of course

578
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 10: that affects the electoral college, which is where it comes

579
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 10: down to, where the rubber meets the vote.

580
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 2: If you will, Jody does the fear sway how people

581
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 2: are going to vote.

582
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 10: Well, I think it more could affect whether they vote, Alex.

583
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 10: I really think that's part of it. If you fear that,

584
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 10: you know, perhaps there's going to be violence surrounding this,

585
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 10: or there's this kind of fear about things, maybe you say.

586
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 10: And we've seen a lot of polling around the fact

587
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 10: that there isn't a lot of excitement around either candidate.

588
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 10: We had at one point polls showing that which there

589
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 10: was someone other than Biden or Trump. But this is

590
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 10: who we have. This is who's going to be on

591
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 10: the ballots, and so I think it's more going to

592
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 10: be a turnout issue. We'll see now. Of course, we

593
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 10: do this pulling and we all talk about polls a

594
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 10: great deal in an election year like this, but it's

595
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 10: still it's still about five and a half months out

596
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 10: before the election. And a lot of people don't make

597
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 10: up their minds fully until after Labor Day, so this

598
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 10: is still this is an issue that could affect voting,

599
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 10: but we still have plenty of time before people actually

600
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 10: start voting.

601
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 5: So Jody, aside from these issues, what are kind of

602
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 5: the key issues that are polling has kind of illuminated

603
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 5: are kind of going to be the key issues for

604
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 5: these candidates through the election.

605
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 10: Yeah, so the race is narrowing according to Again, these

606
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 10: are seven swing states where we think, you know, a

607
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 10: lot of the election will be determined, and we found

608
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 10: that six and ten of the voters worry about misinformation,

609
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 10: not only violence, but misinformation. Forty six percent I had

610
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 10: concerns about perhaps foreign interference in the election. So that's

611
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 10: an interesting take. We've seen former President Trump's swing state

612
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 10: lead dipping slightly. He is still ahead in many of

613
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 10: these swing states according to our poll, but it has

614
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 10: dipped slightly since the last time we pulled about a

615
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 10: month ago. So that could be viewed as a little

616
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 10: bit of encouraging news for those who support Biden, but

617
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 10: those who support Trump say, well, he's still ahead there,

618
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 10: So we have that. We also have that Biden gaining

619
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 10: ground from April in each of the competitive sun Belt states.

620
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 10: So that's an interesting factor that he's gaining there. The

621
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 10: states where he needs to win, he absolutely must win

622
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 10: what we're calling those blue wall states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan,

623
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 10: which he won last time, which Hillary Clinton famously did

624
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 10: not win in her race against Donald Trump. We're finding

625
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 10: that he is doing a little bit better there. They're

626
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 10: separated by no more than two percentage points in those

627
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 10: blue wall states, so very close there, Judy.

628
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 3: When you talked about misinformation, how do voters then, what

629
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 3: do we have an idea where voters are going to

630
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 3: get their information if they're worried about misinformation, Well.

631
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 10: That's a really good question, Alex and so many of

632
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 10: them talk about misinformation, but then they go to places

633
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 10: where they are, you know, where there's potentially misinformation, and

634
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 10: a lot of voters are getting their news from a

635
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 10: lot of places that we don't necessarily consider traditional news outlets.

636
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 10: So it's an interesting question. We did ask about TikTok.

637
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 10: That's been a big issue the US government has under

638
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 10: legislation that was passed emergency funding for Ukraine and other

639
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 10: places in the world. It was in there a ban

640
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 10: on TikTok if the Chinese parent by dance does not

641
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 10: sell it. We asked whether we asked these swing state

642
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 10: voters whether they thought it was a good idea to

643
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 10: ban TikTok, and almost half said they thought it was.

644
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 10: So another interesting wrinkle there in terms of information.

645
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 5: Jody, what is the polling demonstrated about, if anything, about

646
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 5: voters feelings about former President Donald Trump? And I guess

647
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 5: the current trial that he's dealing with, as well as

648
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 5: the other legal challenges for the former president.

649
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, so we saw that about one thousand respondents mentioned

650
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:46,239
Speaker 10: or alluded to that trial in comments given to us

651
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 10: as part of the poll, which shows that they're aware

652
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 10: of it. They know that it's happening. We didn't ask

653
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 10: a specific question. In the past, we had asked if

654
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 10: he was to be convicted of a crime, would that

655
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 10: affect their decision to vote for him, and that did

656
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 10: poll quite high. We didn't ask that specific question now,

657
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 10: we asked about their knowledge of this, and again many

658
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 10: people knew this was happening. So that will you know.

659
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 10: We will know in the next few weeks whether he

660
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 10: will be convicted or not in the New York case,

661
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 10: and that will be something interesting to see in further polls,

662
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 10: whether his either being acquitted or found guilty. There is

663
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 10: something that could affect voters perceptions going into the noveper election.

664
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 3: We may not know this, but is anyone going to

665
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 3: watch the debates to really get a sense of who

666
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 3: they want to vote for? I just I'm so struck

667
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 3: by undecided because both of these individuals have been president before.

668
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 3: I mean, usually the debates are for people that nobody knows,

669
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 3: like a governor of a state that we're going to

670
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 3: have to get to know on a global stage and

671
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 3: a federal stage.

672
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 10: What do you think, Yeah, I'm always amazed to you know,

673
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 10: these both these people, I mean, have had so much

674
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 10: coverage for so long. How could anybody in America not

675
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 10: have an opinion about them? Right? But at the same time,

676
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 10: people watch the debates both to really to double down

677
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 10: in some ways on their opinion. If they feel that,

678
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 10: you know, they're very much for Donald Trump and they

679
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 10: see him in the debate and they like him, they say, okay, good,

680
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 10: that really validates my decision to vote for him. Or

681
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 10: on the other hand, if they're looking, you know, to

682
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 10: see whether somebody the person that they don't think they

683
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 10: want to vote for, but they do particularly well that night,

684
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 10: that may you know, that could sway their opinion. It's

685
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 10: a perception kind of thing, but it matters. We found

686
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:45,399
Speaker 10: out that debates do matter a great deal to how

687
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 10: the elector perceives the candidates. This will be a very

688
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 10: early debate happening in June. We haven't seen this in

689
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 10: cycles lately, so that may that may tell us something

690
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 10: about people's willingness.

691
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 9: To go out and vote.

692
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 5: All right, Jody, thank you so uch for joining us.

693
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 5: Really appreciate getting some of your time. Jody Schneider, political

694
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 5: news director for Bloomberg Television and Radio, joining us from Washington,

695
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 5: d C. And another question, I was kind of like,

696
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,800
Speaker 5: are the anybody can pay attention to the conventions in

697
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 5: the summer. Yeah, I mean, I think probably just because

698
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 5: there might that might be a place where if there's

699
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 5: violence and may be there. We certainly saw it in

700
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 5: the past conventions. So I'll be interest to see how

701
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 5: much people pay attention to the conventions. Yeah, so we

702
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 5: already know we did, We already know who the candidates are.

703
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:29,919
Speaker 2: Yep.

704
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 3: And also particularly I think there was a swing state

705
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 3: now swing state, but primary where Nikki Hilly got votes

706
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 3: like twenty two percent of the voter or something, even

707
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 3: though she wasn't actually running anymore.

708
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

709
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:47,760
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

710
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live

711
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just

712
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 1: Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

713
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 3: All right, thank you so much, John Tucker, Malex Steel

714
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 3: alongside Paul swe Need this a Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. Some

715
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:08,400
Speaker 3: breaking news over in the UK SOS according to BBC,

716
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 3: but a UK general election will now be held on

717
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 3: July fourth. The backdrop for this is that in local

718
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 3: elections and also in polling the Labor Party has been

719
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 3: gaining a lot. When it comes to say the Conservative Party,

720
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 3: which is currently in power with the Prime Minister Rashi Sunak.

721
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 3: Now you can make an argument it's hard to govern

722
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 3: if the opinion polls show you so much out of favor. Also,

723
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 3: inflation has been high, although it's come down a little

724
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 3: bit today to two point three percent was the latest read.

725
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 3: Growth has been sort of stagnant. We're waiting for the

726
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: Bank of England to cut as well, so there was

727
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 3: an expectation that Rishisunac would call for early elections. He

728
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 3: hinted it would be in the back half of this year,

729
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 3: which could kick off as much as July. The theory

730
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 3: was that he would wait until the fall, which was

731
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 3: when we'd see prices actually come down in terms of inflation.

732
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 3: But it looks like he decided he was going to

733
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 3: ramp it up a July election, and also coincides with

734
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 3: get this the first flight of asylum seekers that are

735
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:08,240
Speaker 3: being sent to Rwanda. This is a very controversial proposal

736
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 3: that he touted, allowing the Tories to make their migration

737
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 3: clamp down a core focus of the campaign versus say,

738
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 3: maybe inflation.

739
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 2: Anyway, that was the best thing. That's all I got.

740
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 2: That's great. So let's go somebody who knows a little

741
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 2: bit more, shall we, Yeah, let's do this week.

742
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 5: Got the James Wilcock. He's just going to join us here,

743
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,919
Speaker 5: his Bloomberg Radio senior producer in London. I guess James

744
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 5: just reading some of the top live stuff here. A

745
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 5: little bit of surprise as to the timing. What do

746
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 5: you know over there in London?

747
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 7: I mean your guest is as good as ours, and

748
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 7: that you're right to point out the flights to Rwanda.

749
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 7: There are also kind of negative sides to that too,

750
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 7: in that summer is normally a very good time for

751
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 7: boats to start crossing over from France to the UK,

752
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 7: so it could be a sort of negative sign there.

753
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 7: In some ways, this is a major gamble for SOA.

754
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 7: He is basically saying that's two point three percent inflation

755
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 7: CPI headline that he's coming out and say could be

756
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 7: the best he's going to get, and he wants to

757
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 7: call it thatction gets any work. You've also sort of

758
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 7: bear in mind that in the past months two Conservative

759
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 7: MPs our lawmakers here in Parliament have defected to the

760
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 7: Labor Party. In many ways, the sources I've been talking

761
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 7: today says a summer election speaks more to fears things

762
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 7: get worse rather than the hope it gets better. And

763
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 7: for Labor today, in some ways this has been an

764
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 7: outcome they've been looking forward to. They've been saying they

765
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 7: want an election. They are more than twenty points ahead

766
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 7: in the polls, and a recent local council election show

767
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 7: that that seems relatively solid. So there are a lot

768
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 7: of questions today inside his own party about why he's

769
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 7: called this so early.

770
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 3: Well to that point, and this is like for the

771
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 3: people over here in the in the in the US,

772
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 3: why would he call an election at all? Like here

773
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 3: we are pulling all the time. You know, people like

774
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,760
Speaker 3: a president, they don't. No one cares. Every four years, boom,

775
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 3: you get to vote, that's it. How does it work

776
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 3: over in the UK?

777
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 7: So, I mean you guys have the quirk where you

778
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 7: know that that November it's been coming for a very

779
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 7: long time and it's all in your calendars and you've

780
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 7: all been able to book summer holidays. I don't have

781
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,399
Speaker 7: that joy in the UK. The way the rules work

782
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 7: is you have until five years. So the soon as

783
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:12,919
Speaker 7: you get elected, you have five years until the clock

784
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 7: is up and you have to leave. That deadline is

785
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 7: January twenty twenty five here, and so it is getting

786
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 7: closer and closer. And so the UK government and the

787
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 7: Prime Minister holds this power effectively. He can pick when

788
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 7: he thinks is best. But what has happened to Sunacu

789
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 7: is the longer and longer that goes on as he

790
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 7: waits for that best moment, the weaker and weaker, he looks,

791
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 7: and then he asked like, is this a prime minister

792
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 7: who never has that best moment? And so calling it

793
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 7: now is also his way of trying to say, you know,

794
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 7: I still have the power over the situation. Famously, Gordon Brown,

795
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 7: lib At Prime minister back in twenty ten, who lost

796
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 7: his sort of seat as Prime minister, didn't call it.

797
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 7: He bottled it in about two thousand and eight, and

798
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 7: he was famously called week in the election campaign that

799
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 7: followed two years later because he had his moment when

800
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 7: he could maybe have turned it all around and he

801
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 7: didn't do it. So to your question, Sinnak is choosing

802
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 7: to make this gamble now. Whether he will succeed as

803
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 7: now anyone's guest. But it is worth saying that in

804
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 7: most recent political history, in the past forty years, overcoming

805
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 7: the pole lead that Labor his opposition party have hasn't

806
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 7: been done.

807
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:25,399
Speaker 5: Do we know who the Labor Party will put up

808
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 5: against mister Sunak.

809
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, we do so. The Labor opposition leader Kiss Starmer,

810
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 7: he's been in power over in the Labor Party for

811
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 7: since about twenty twenty, and the Labor oppoition needer to

812
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 7: the person who will run against him. Kir is increasingly

813
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 7: well known in the UK. He is putting for quite

814
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:47,359
Speaker 7: a centrist platform in comparison to the previous Labor leader

815
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 7: back in twenty nineteen, Jeremy Corbyn, who was very left

816
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 7: wing by UK standards, and what Kir Starmer is running

817
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 7: on is but he put out an election pledge card

818
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 7: last week. That's how much speculation has been going in

819
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 7: the UK building up to this. He said his six

820
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 7: first steps would be and don't test me here, but

821
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:10,320
Speaker 7: stabilizing the economy, reforming the UK health service, protecting the borders,

822
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 7: cracking down on crime, and as well as that, he's

823
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 7: also looking to reform education. And I think I've been

824
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 7: five The sixth one eludes to me, but broadly that

825
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 7: is going to be his platform for Sunak. This election

826
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 7: is all about the economy. But both sides here have

827
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 7: a story to tell about the economy.

828
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 4: I am.

829
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 3: We're learning now from other news outlets that Richie Sunak,

830
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 3: Prime Minister of UK, will make a statement in Downing

831
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,200
Speaker 3: Street at about five pm so US time, that's about

832
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 3: thirteen minutes time, James.

833
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 2: Why are people.

834
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 3: So unhappy with the Tory Party, with the Conservative Party

835
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 3: right now.

836
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 7: That is a complex question. I mean to answer it,

837
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 7: I have to go back into recent history. There in

838
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 7: the past like three years, have been four different Conservative

839
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 7: prime ministers and when you look at that, that has

840
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 7: become a hallmark of a difficult leadership. Inflation, like in

841
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 7: the US has hit double digits and has only recently

842
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 7: come down two point three percent today. And combine that

843
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 7: with sluggish GDP growth, a very difficult leading of the

844
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,320
Speaker 7: European Union and the Conservative Party have also been in

845
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 7: power for fourteen years and part of this is just

846
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 7: a kind of political exhaustion. Add all that together and

847
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 7: many people here are looking for something different. And it

848
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 7: is worth saying although the Conservative Party are beneath Labor Party,

849
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 7: the Labor Party the main opposition in the polls, it

850
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 7: has yet to be demonstrated there is a real enthusiasm

851
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 7: for Labor either. There is just kind of this real

852
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,280
Speaker 7: exhaustion with the current plittal options in Britain.

853
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 5: Just real quickly for us here at this flight to Rwanda,

854
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 5: these people who are they do they want to go

855
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,359
Speaker 5: to Rwanda? Or are they being no kicked out?

856
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 7: They're being kicked out. So in the same way, I

857
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 7: think the parallel for you guys is people crossing the

858
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 7: border from Mexico. In the UK. Our form of illegal

859
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 7: migration comes across seeing this channel from the border with France,

860
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 7: and so migration has been a core issue, a contentious

861
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 7: issue in UK policy four years now and Rishi's big

862
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 7: gambit has been to say that we will consider breaking

863
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 7: international law and we will deport anyone we catch illegally

864
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 7: and send them to a Randa to be processed as

865
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 7: asylum seekers and then if that processing is legal, they

866
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 7: will then be come back to the UK and if

867
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 7: it is illegal, they will be then fant of dem miranda.

868
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 7: This has been an extremely controversial policy which many experts

869
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:42,359
Speaker 7: say may not even work. It would deport maybe one

870
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 7: percent of those who enter the UK league illegally according

871
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 7: to the sort of think tanks to look at this

872
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Speaker 7: migration stats and it is basically the idea being it

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Speaker 7: would deter the conservative say, anyone from wanting to cross.

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Speaker 5: But that's the just for time appreciated. James Walkaki is

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Speaker 5: the senior producer for Bloomberg Radio over in London. Give

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Speaker 5: us the latest reporting on elections coming.

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