1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 2: Video Stock trading down hard. They're going to take a 7 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:30,319 Speaker 2: five point five billion dollar charge. Let's break this down 8 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 2: with men Deep Singing runs all the technology research for 9 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:38,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. Mandeep talk to us about Nvidian particular, why 10 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 2: are they taking this rite down specifically and how surprising 11 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: was it. 12 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 3: Well, it was a surprise in the sense that they're 13 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 3: you know, stop or barred from selling their twenty chips 14 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 3: with the prior administration approved and now they're required to 15 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 3: get another license. I mean where you could see you know, 16 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 3: the mac some impact is in terms of what happens 17 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 3: with the guide. And look, the consensus numbers didn't really 18 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 3: come down even though we had the tariff uncertainty for 19 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks. The consensus was around fifty 20 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 3: five percent growth for Nvidia this year. 21 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 4: Now when you look. 22 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:20,960 Speaker 3: At you know, this kind of news where they're going 23 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 3: to lose you know, almost fifteen billion dollars in revenue 24 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 3: to China this year. Those numbers look very tough to beat, 25 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 3: I mean even meet the consensus. So and we've been 26 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 3: used to Nvidia beating and raising, so I do think 27 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 3: the numbers do get challenging. And look in terms of 28 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 3: long term impact, I mean, I can see how China 29 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 3: will be a much smaller market given all the back 30 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 3: and forth that we have seen with the administration and 31 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 3: just I think what we are seeing overall, you know, 32 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 3: with their LLM and AI development. 33 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: The bigger question here is. 34 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 3: Is Nvidia or you know, for that matter, AMD the 35 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 3: only way to kind of stop China's progress with AI 36 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 3: or should the administration be looking at a much broader 37 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 3: cut and that would include you know, the semicap equipment 38 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:17,639 Speaker 3: vendors like SML and the other fabrillated vendors with China 39 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 3: is doing business with to build their own fabs. Remember 40 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 3: these are the ready chips that they're using for AI. 41 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 3: They're also investing in fabs. So you have to ask yourself, 42 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 3: do you need restrictions on the fab makers and you 43 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 3: know equipment guys. And that's where it could get much bigger. 44 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 3: If this escalates and nobody knows the answer right now. 45 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 5: So of course we know in Nvidia it's the golden 46 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 5: star of the group. Everyone looks to them and expectations 47 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 5: remain high for them. How much do you expect this 48 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,799 Speaker 5: news to actually change or alter earnings expectations? Of course, 49 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 5: we know that they don't report until late in May, 50 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 5: but do you expect this to change any sort of 51 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 5: outlook for earnings from the company. 52 00:02:57,480 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 4: Yeah. 53 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 3: So the good thing when it comes to my moddeling 54 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 3: Nvidio's revenue is there are four main hyperscalers here in 55 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 3: the US that contribute about forty five percent of their revenue, 56 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 3: and we know the two of them have reaffirmed their capex. 57 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 3: We are going to learn from Microsoft and Meta when 58 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 3: the report earnings if they will keep their numbers intact 59 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 3: for the full year. But overall, I think the picture 60 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 3: still seems to be good when it comes to the 61 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 3: hyperscale capex spending for in video chips. 62 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 4: The other big bucket. 63 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 3: Is sovereigns and China, and that's where you know, now 64 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 3: you can poke some holes that if they're losing China revenue, 65 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 3: is there any other sovereign that can pick up that 66 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 3: slack in terms of you know, in video chips, and 67 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 3: the market is still under supplied, so we know they 68 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 3: were undershipping the demand when it comes to you know, 69 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 3: how much demand was out. 70 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 4: There for in video chips. 71 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 3: So from that perspective, it sounds like they shouldn't have 72 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 3: a problem, you know, finding buyers for their chips. But 73 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 3: that's where the guide will be very important when the 74 00:03:58,640 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 3: report and may. 75 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 2: Who is ASML and what did they announce? 76 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 3: So ASML is the semicapic fhipment player that I mentioned 77 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 3: which is used by all the fab makers. So whether 78 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 3: it's TSMC, whether it's Micron on the memory side, Samsung, 79 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 3: all these companies rely on ASML's EUV equipment to actually 80 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 3: manufacture the chips that in Vidia is designing. And that's 81 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 3: where you know, if you're banning the chips but not 82 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 3: the equipment sales, then it's pretty much saying okay, China 83 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 3: could in theory build a fab that's comparable to TSMC 84 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 3: and microns fabs and create their own chips. They don't 85 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 3: need to buy from Nvidia NAMD. And that's my point 86 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 3: about you know, the wider export restrictions when it comes 87 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 3: to what China is able to procure, but SML is 88 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 3: a durable monopoly like in video is when it comes 89 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 3: to you know, the equipment side. 90 00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 4: Every company that uses. 91 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 3: You know, so the latest au eu Weeek technology relies 92 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 3: on SML to buy there. 93 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 2: And ASML ships to China, right. 94 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean thirty percent plus revenue exporture to. 95 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:13,679 Speaker 4: China, so a lot could happen. 96 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 3: But SML is a European company, so it's interesting to 97 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 3: see how taris affect them. 98 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 2: Based to Collin, Okay, Mandy saying complex global geopolitics, We're 99 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: starting to see in some of the financial results from 100 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 2: some of these big tech companies, and we'll stay on 101 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 2: top of that. 102 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 103 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 104 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 105 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 106 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 4: We had retail sales today. 107 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 2: They came in kind of right in line with expectations, 108 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:49,840 Speaker 2: so it showed some improvement from last month. And the 109 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 2: question is how much of that is kind of pulling 110 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 2: forward some purchases and consumption on part of consumers are 111 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 2: trying to get ahead of the terras. Mari Shore joins 112 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 2: US senior equity analyst at Columbia three Needle Investments. Mari, 113 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 2: what did you make of the retail sales data today? 114 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 4: Yes, thanks for having me. 115 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:11,119 Speaker 6: As you said, the retail sales data was strong, showed 116 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 6: an improvement versus February. 117 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 4: I think some of that was. 118 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 6: Driven by unfavorable weather in February, which weighed on that 119 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 6: monthly result. But I don't see consumers, as you just suggested, 120 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 6: really pulling forward buying ahead of expected tariffs. I think 121 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 6: the underlying demand trends had been very stable, with continued 122 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 6: outperformance in categories like apparel, beauty, and home furnishings. But again, 123 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,359 Speaker 6: I think investors are taking the results today with a 124 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 6: huge grain of salt given the heightened tariff and recession 125 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 6: risk that lies ahead. 126 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:56,679 Speaker 5: So you mentioned that people are taking this individual report 127 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 5: with a grain of salt. What are you seeing as 128 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 5: the broader narrative for the as consumer right now? 129 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 6: It is incredibly unclear, uncertain, volatile. I've met with many 130 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 6: companies over the past couple of weeks, and honestly, there 131 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 6: I would say just as confused as investors and consumers 132 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 6: are at this point. I just met with one company 133 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 6: earlier today who said this volatility is even worse than 134 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 6: what they experienced during the pandemic. So that just shows you, 135 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 6: you know, how they are really still trying to figure 136 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 6: out the rules of the game before they can put 137 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 6: together a game plan. And unfortunately, when you run the numbers, 138 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 6: even assuming some mitigate mitigating efforts like taking pricing, the 139 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 6: impact on a lot of the companies that I look at, 140 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 6: specifically in the apparel and footwear categories is very significant. 141 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 5: I mean, it's interesting that you mentioned that in terms 142 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 5: of volatility uncertainty, you're saying that this is worse than 143 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 5: it Wasn't the pandemic one of the most unprecedented time periods. 144 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 5: What are you hearing from people? Does it seem as 145 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 5: though in the data looking forward that maybe consumers have 146 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 5: more to bracepo. 147 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 4: Yes, absolutely. 148 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 6: I think that if the worst case, you know, tariffs 149 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 6: that we heard from the President on Liberation Day do 150 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 6: go through, we will see significant price increases across the board, 151 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 6: and I think that that just puts greater risk on 152 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 6: consumers being able to spend on discretionary goods. And you know, 153 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 6: we're still coming out of the pandemic where we were 154 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 6: seeing demand normalization and deflation in a lot of bigger 155 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 6: ticket categories, and so I think, you know, of course, 156 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 6: we still have to see what the what the final 157 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 6: results are, but in my view, the ninety day pause 158 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 6: does not really change the result. There's still no easy 159 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 6: answers as to how the companies will mitigate these higher costs, 160 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:06,560 Speaker 6: and I think as a result of that, a lot 161 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,559 Speaker 6: of them will end up flowing through to the consumer 162 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 6: in the form of higher inflation. 163 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,839 Speaker 2: Is are there certain categories Mary that retailers can pass 164 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 2: along the cost increases more readily than in some other 165 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:22,199 Speaker 2: areas historically speaking. 166 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 4: It's a great question. 167 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:27,719 Speaker 6: I think it's a little bit harder to talk category. 168 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 6: It's easier to talk brand because of course, you know, 169 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 6: there are certain companies that have that have been performing 170 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 6: very well, have very strong brand momentum and product innovation. 171 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 6: So in that group, I would highlight, like a name 172 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 6: like Tapestry, where there's still a big white space pricing 173 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 6: opportunity between themselves and the luxury categories. I think a 174 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 6: brand like Ralph Lauren. You know, even in apparel, which 175 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 6: is typically a low growth cat category, they've been taking 176 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 6: a lot of share. I think beauty is still a 177 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 6: category where investors are I'm sorry, consumers are willing to 178 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 6: spend on new innovation. Outside of that, it's harder to 179 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 6: identify areas where I think the companies will be able 180 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 6: to pass through higher pricing without seeing a negative impact 181 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 6: on unit demand. 182 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 2: H right, very good, Mari Shore, thank you so much 183 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 2: for joining us. Marius is senior equity analyst a Columbia 184 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 2: thread needle up there in Boston. Joining us via zoom. 185 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 186 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 187 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 188 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 189 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 2: If you look at company news today, one of the 190 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 2: big items crossing the tables at in Nvidia Warm, they're 191 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 2: warning that the President Trump's curbs on China chips it's 192 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 2: going to cost it five point five billion dollars. That's 193 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 2: the write down they are taking on some of their 194 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 2: chips that are no longer commercially viable in China, at 195 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 2: least under the current terriff situation. So let's get the 196 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 2: latest reporting there and where else we might see some 197 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 2: risk for companies out there. Michael Sheppard, Bloomberg Senior editor 198 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 2: in Washington, DC, joins us here. Michael, what did you 199 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,439 Speaker 2: make of the news out of in Nvidia and can 200 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,719 Speaker 2: you extrapolate it out to other companies other sectors maybe well, we. 201 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 7: Already see one extrapolation playing out in the market today, Paul, 202 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 7: and that is advanced micro devices. In Vidia told the 203 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 7: world yesterday was facing this charge related to the new 204 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 7: restrictions from the Trump administrations on sales of its Age 205 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 7: twenty chip to China. But now AMD comes out today 206 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 7: and says it too is facing similar curbs on its 207 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 7: ability to sell a similar product, a device known as 208 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 7: the Mi I. 209 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 4: Three to zero eight. 210 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 7: Both of these were designed to comply with previous US 211 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 7: curbs and restrictions on sales of advanced microprocessors to China, 212 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 7: and the idea of those limits is that you don't 213 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 7: officials here in Washington don't want Chinese government or Chinese 214 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 7: companies to gain too much of a technological edge when 215 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 7: it comes to products that could have dual use for 216 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 7: the military or potentially give Beijing a leg up in 217 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 7: this race for artificial intelligence, so we are hearing from it, 218 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 7: and other companies will have to keep their eye out 219 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 7: for further restrictions, especially Paul as we see this trade 220 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 7: war intensifying. 221 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 5: So no one wants to hear this type of news, 222 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 5: especially for AI darlinging someone like Nvidia, especially with tariff 223 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 5: uncertainty and the degree of those impacts still unknown. What 224 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 5: is the environment like in Washington? What are people hearing 225 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 5: in regards to this whole tariff story. 226 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 7: Well, it's a great question because we really see this 227 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 7: as much as part of a larger narrative here in 228 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 7: the nation's capital. Hawkishness towards China has been growing. 229 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 4: Over the past several years. 230 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 7: Both Republicans and Democrats have viewed the world's second largest 231 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 7: economy as much more of a rival rather than as 232 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 7: purely a trading partner, and they have unified in this 233 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 7: approach of trying to restrict access the sensitive technology, not 234 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 7: just semiconductors, but also the equipment used to make them. 235 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 7: And so this is not a real sea change here 236 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 7: that we're seeing today. Rather it is just another step 237 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 7: in a direction of travel we have been following. 238 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 4: Now. 239 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 7: The question was whether some of the big tech companies 240 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 7: and their CEOs who have tried to make pleas to 241 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,199 Speaker 7: Donald Trump, including Jensen Wog of Nvidia, who was at 242 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 7: the White House just a few weeks ago, those pleas 243 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 7: for maybe a break on some of these export restrictions. 244 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 7: It's not so much that they fall on deaf ears. 245 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 7: It is just that policymakers inside the Trump administration have 246 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 7: really decided that they need to stay the course in 247 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 7: getting tough with China. 248 00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 2: You know, you mentioned, Michael, this has been just another step, 249 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 2: be a a big, big step, but another step. And 250 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 2: what's kind of been developing over the last several years 251 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 2: which I've kind of likened to a technology cold war 252 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 2: between China and the US and maybe even China and 253 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 2: the West in general. Here, is there any way to 254 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 2: get off. 255 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 4: This track here? Or is this just where we're going? 256 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 7: Well, it's a tough track to escape, because we did 257 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 7: see overnight our colleagues in Asia scoop that China is 258 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 7: willing to talk with the Trump administration, but they are 259 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 7: setting some terms for how they want that conversation to unfold. 260 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 7: And this is much more than just the conversation that 261 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 7: President Donald Trump might want to have on tariffs. His 262 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 7: spokesperson said yesterday the ball is in Beijing's court. Well, 263 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 7: Beijing volley back with an indication that they are setting 264 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 7: some terms for having this discussion. One, they would like 265 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 7: to see, one point, person not the President of the 266 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 7: United States, but one of his top aides serving as 267 00:14:55,840 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 7: the main interlocutor with Beijing so that they could negotiate something. Two, 268 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 7: they really want to make sure that these technology curves 269 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 7: are part of the conversation, as well as the eternally 270 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 7: contentious question of Taiwan. And then three, they would like 271 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 7: to see some of the more disparaging rhetoric coming from 272 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 7: some Trump administration officials, including jd Vance, comments that officials 273 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 7: in Beijing have not taken to well. 274 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 4: They want to see that dial down. 275 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 7: But we're a long way off from seeing the two 276 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 7: sides actually taking a step toward meeting the way that 277 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 7: we saw earlier this week the European Commissions Trade top 278 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 7: trade negotiator was in town to have those kinds of conversations. 279 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 7: We're a long way from seeing that take place with 280 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 7: the Chinese right now. 281 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 5: I mean, we also saw news that Trump says that 282 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 5: you will attend tariff talks with Japan today. What are 283 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 5: we hearing is really the urgency from maybe legislators and 284 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 5: other people in Washington to really get these trade relations 285 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 5: sorted out with some of our biggest trade partners. 286 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 7: Well, they certainly are under some pressure to act, and 287 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 7: members of Congress are increasingly concerned that this sweeping tariff's 288 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 7: package from the Trump administration could carry some economic blowback 289 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 7: that would be felt in their districts and could make 290 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 7: it hard for them to win reelection in the upcoming 291 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 7: congressional elections in twenty twenty six. And they're also worried 292 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 7: about how the blowback from that could affect their districts 293 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 7: and their standing too with the folks back home. They've 294 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 7: already been hearing from constituents that there may be job 295 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 7: losses not only through tariffs, but also the administration's push 296 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 7: to cut a lot of federal employees from the government's 297 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 7: workforce too. 298 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 2: Michael, thank you so much for your reporting. Really appreciate 299 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 2: your time. Michael Shepherd, senior editor for a Bloomberg News 300 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 2: giving us the latest on kind of what we're seeing 301 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 2: coming out of these technology negotiations between the US and China. 302 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live 303 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Autel 304 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 305 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,120 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 306 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 2: I'm Paul Sweeney, your live here in our Bloomberg Interactive 307 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 2: Broker Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well, so 308 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 2: you can head over to YouTube dot com search Bloomberg 309 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:16,199 Speaker 2: Radio Live, Bloomberg Podcast Live. Either way, we'll get you 310 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 2: to where you need to go. All right, here's what 311 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 2: I understand of this whole Harvard thing with the Trump administration. 312 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 2: The latest is the Trump administration has frozen two point 313 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 2: two billion dollars in grants to Harvard citing concerns over 314 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 2: anti Semitism and pro Palestinian protests on campus. And Harvard's 315 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 2: hired an attorney and this is an interesting hire to 316 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 2: represent it, and it's a great store. In the Bloomberg Turmber, 317 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 2: one of the most widely read about this attorney, David Verriakos, 318 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 2: joins us. He's a legal reporter for Bloomberg News. He 319 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 2: joins us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. 320 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 2: So who did they hire? 321 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 8: Who was this? William Burkefella, Bill Burke works at Quinn 322 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 8: Emmanuel in Washington, and he has very close ties to 323 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 8: the Trump adminutetration and in conservative legal circles. Generally, he's 324 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 8: represented a lot of billionaires and different people in political 325 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 8: settings in the Trump world, and he's considered to be 326 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 8: an excellent courtroom advocate and also a very skilled negotiator. 327 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 8: So by hiring Bill Burke, Harvard is essentially saying, this 328 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,880 Speaker 8: is someone who we think has real skills to help 329 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:30,360 Speaker 8: us with the Trump administration. 330 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 9: So legally, what can Harvard really do here? 331 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 5: I mean, how much leverage and stuff does Trump have 332 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 5: us he allowed to do this? 333 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 9: What are the legalities here? 334 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:46,400 Speaker 8: Well, that's the question. Can they withhold billions of dollars 335 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 8: in federal funding the way they have done? Harvard says 336 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 8: that that is not in compliance with the law, and 337 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 8: the Trump administration says that it is. It could end 338 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 8: up in a lawsuit in federal court and would determine 339 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 8: whether they're following the correct law. 340 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 2: So it's never a good strategy to sue the US 341 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 2: government in my opinion. I mean, you know, it just 342 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 2: seems like that's a tough road to hope. What is 343 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 2: the strategy for Harvard how far do they want to 344 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 2: take this? How do you think this plays out? 345 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 4: Well? 346 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 8: Suing the government sometimes works, and it has worked in 347 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,199 Speaker 8: the second Trump administration for a number of plaintiffs. But 348 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 8: I think that the real strategy is to negotiate, and 349 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 8: you can either negotiate with or without a lawsuit. A 350 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 8: lawsuit can begin a process of negotiations, and I think 351 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 8: Harvard would concede that probably that they have some ability 352 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 8: to withhold money, but not all the money that they 353 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 8: are withholding. 354 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 9: So you know, taking it to the federal government can 355 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 9: take a while. Is it worth it? 356 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:54,879 Speaker 5: I mean, two point two billion dollars sounds like a 357 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 5: lot to me. But is this money that Harvard really needs? 358 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 8: I think Harvard would say that it is that it's 359 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 8: been very important money for their medical research, for their 360 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 8: engineering research, and you know, other aspects of the university. Obviously, 361 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 8: they're the wealthiest US universities, so they could withstand not 362 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,719 Speaker 8: having that money for a while and withstand a protracted 363 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 8: legal fight in a way that other colleges and universities 364 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,959 Speaker 8: may not be able to do. But I mean, there 365 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 8: are questions revolve around the procedure by which the money 366 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 8: was withheld and also First Amendment questions. They say that 367 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 8: under the First Amendment law, it's clear that you know, 368 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 8: their activities and speech are protected, and so that this 369 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 8: is illegal retaliation. 370 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,639 Speaker 2: So, I mean, I just had this whole economics of 371 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 2: government investment in universities explained to me over the week, 372 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 2: and I wasn't really clear. But this is a government 373 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 2: giving money to a university. And it's not just Harvard, 374 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 2: it's University of Texas, University of Florida, whatever, all these 375 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 2: state universities, huge research grant universities, Penn State University. They're 376 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 2: investing in these universities. They're investing in the research and 377 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 2: development of these universities, the labs, all that kind of 378 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 2: stuff so that the US can develop cool new stuff, 379 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,919 Speaker 2: whether it's medicines or technologies. So it's an investment by 380 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 2: the US government, and they're saying, who's going to do 381 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 2: all this research and development for US? 382 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 4: Well, let's use the. 383 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 2: Scientists that are already on these campuses and already have 384 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 2: these labs there. That's kind of what developed post World 385 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 2: War two, and that's been the reason, and that has 386 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 2: created all the great technology and advancements that US governments 387 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 2: had right. 388 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 8: Right the argument is that these are investments that help 389 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 8: the entire nation, not just that private university, That they 390 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:55,399 Speaker 8: are directed investments that help push cutting edge developments in 391 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 8: a number of areas, and that there is a benefit 392 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:07,480 Speaker 8: to it. The Trump administration says that those investments can't 393 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 8: be made with no strings attached, that there are essentially 394 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 8: important strings that involve following civil rights law, and their 395 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 8: position is that Harvard is not following existing civil rights law. 396 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:20,959 Speaker 2: Got it? 397 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 4: So the question is how. 398 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 8: Much leverage does the government really have over Harvard? And 399 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 8: that's what we're waiting to find out. 400 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 5: So are we are people expecting We've seen other universities, 401 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 5: We've seen Trump say something and then they kind of 402 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:41,000 Speaker 5: buckled the cower and they let it go. That being said, 403 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 5: are we expecting this with Howard or sorry, Harvard rather, 404 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 5: do we expect them to remain steadfast on this journey 405 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 5: against you know, the US government or are people thinking 406 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:52,880 Speaker 5: that they may end up backing down? 407 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,120 Speaker 8: Well, that's that's what we're waiting to find out. I mean, 408 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:03,640 Speaker 8: the position that garbage taking now is that we refuse 409 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 8: your demands and we're going to sit tight and fight you. 410 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,639 Speaker 8: And they will do that until they don't you know. 411 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 8: I'm sure that it's a bit of a negotiating position, 412 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:19,400 Speaker 8: and we'll see what they're able to extract in the hearts. 413 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 2: I hired this high profile attorney, but they have not 414 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 2: yet sued the US government. Is that a decision they 415 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,440 Speaker 2: could take, and what would they sue for? Just to block. 416 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 8: Them a lawsuit seems like a distinct possibility. It hasn't 417 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 8: happened yet. Essentially, they have two arguments as I understand it, 418 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 8: which they've outlined in letters to the government. One is 419 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 8: that this is a violation of their protected First Amendment rights, 420 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:53,439 Speaker 8: and the other is that the government did not follow 421 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,679 Speaker 8: the correct procedure in withholding this money. So both of 422 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 8: those are via legal claims that could work in a 423 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 8: federal court. It depends on how they're arguing and how 424 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 8: the judge of US it. 425 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 2: Sorry, so we'll be on most I guess we'll just 426 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 2: kind of wait and see kind of The next step 427 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 2: is probably ball is probably in Harvard's court. 428 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 8: Right at this point, it seems like the ball is 429 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 8: in Harvard's court because earlier this week the federal government 430 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 8: froze the two point two billion okay that they had 431 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,719 Speaker 8: promised to Harvard, and now the question is what is 432 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 8: Harvard's reaction going to be? 433 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 2: Every other university is just holding its breath, you know, 434 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 2: keep its head down. David Verriaco's legal reporter for Bloomberg News, 435 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,679 Speaker 2: joining us live here in on our Bloomberg Interactive Broke Studio, 436 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,959 Speaker 2: giving us the latest report to here reporting on this 437 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 2: fight between Harvard and the Trump administration. 438 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 439 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 440 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 441 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,640 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 442 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 443 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal