1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Kind of mixed open 7 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: here for the first forty five minutes or so of 8 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: trading here, looks like folks are kind of waiting on 9 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: some of the big echo data. It's gonna get a 10 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,319 Speaker 1: little sense of kind of how this market's performing, how 11 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:36,919 Speaker 1: it may discount some of this echo data we will 12 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: get this week, most notably CPI Data as well's pp 13 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: I as well. Cameron christ macro strategists for Bloomberg News 14 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 1: and Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. 15 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:50,919 Speaker 1: They both join us here. We're gonna round table this thing. 16 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:56,279 Speaker 1: I want to record this. Yeah, I think we do 17 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: that on a daily basis. Then we pot it as 18 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: kids say, all right, Cameron, um, we got a lot 19 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 1: of eco data here today. What are you going to 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: be looking for? What do you think I guess more importantly, 21 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: what do you think your federal Reserve is gonna be 22 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: looking for? Well, obviously the CPI is the highlight of 23 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: the of the week. Uh. Yeah, they made it pretty 24 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: clear that they need to see more than one or 25 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 1: two friendly prints to switch switch course. Um, but last 26 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 1: month wouldn't even get a friendly print. So uh, it 27 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,680 Speaker 1: would be the first step on a on the journey. 28 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 1: Could be the sort of the beginning of the end 29 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,839 Speaker 1: of the cycle if we start to see some significant 30 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,399 Speaker 1: downside prints and cp I. But as this year has 31 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: taught us, it is very, very costly to try to 32 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,479 Speaker 1: preempt that. So, Gina, what does an investor do here? 33 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: I mean, Um, it seems like every data point out 34 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: backs up the Fed actually doing what they say, which 35 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: is shocking to the markets. And then, um, it turns 36 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: out when we get a drop in inflation, at least 37 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: according to UM a bunch of research on the street, 38 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: it's going to be horrible for earnings. Well, I think 39 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 1: that remains to be seen for a start. UM, inflation 40 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 1: is usually a lagging indicator of growth. Inflation has been 41 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: in a bizarre position this year relative to the past 42 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 1: twenty years, so any forecasters that really have a strong 43 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,959 Speaker 1: sense of of what inflation is doing probably would would 44 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:25,679 Speaker 1: use a model that is not accurately going to forecast 45 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 1: the reality over the next couple of quarters. I think 46 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: that's the sort of the reality of the earning stream 47 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: is that inflation has been a big pain point for earnings. 48 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 1: Revenues have been growing, but margins have been contracting amid 49 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: the rising input cost pressure, even though companies have been 50 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: able to pass on some price increases. So we might 51 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: be somewhat surprised by the degree to which to drop 52 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 1: an inflation can actually soothe some of those margin pressure 53 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: margin pressures going forward. And frankly, that is not what's 54 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 1: happened for the last twenty years. What's happened for the 55 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: last twenty years is company earnings weakness does not come 56 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,959 Speaker 1: about because inflation is too fast. It comes out about 57 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: because we see a demand demand drop, right, And so 58 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: I think that we've got this really mass confusion going 59 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: on with respect to the earning stream. Um Also, a 60 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 1: lot of the earning strength has come from energy. Specifically, 61 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,359 Speaker 1: energy is very tied not just to inflation, the inflation 62 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: out but look, but what's happening with the input price, right, 63 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: and our oil prices actually falling. Now are input prices 64 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: actually falling in the energy space is a big question 65 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: mark for the outlook. So I would characterize the current 66 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: outlook is sort of earnings confusion. Um that earnings confusion 67 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: probably persists into the next quarter, but companies can do 68 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: a lot to clear up that earning's confusion, and that's 69 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: what we'll be looking for in the upcoming earning season. 70 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: I mean, today, for example, UBS said forward profit will 71 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: drop fifty this year. That sounds less like confusion and 72 00:03:55,840 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 1: just like a huge loss, right, Yeah, Well, I mean, look, 73 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 1: we would be remiss not to note that what's been 74 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: happening in the auto space has also been completely contrary 75 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: to historical experience over a cycle. We can't get cars. 76 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: Cars aren't coming into the United States. They're going to 77 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: start coming into the United States at a point in 78 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: time where interest rates are increasing. This is just completely 79 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 1: bizarre and a bizarre experience in the earning stream. So 80 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: do you really want to take a forward example as 81 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 1: indicative of what's going to happen for tech companies, healthcare companies, 82 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: consumer companies at large. I mean, I think this is 83 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: what I mean by inflation, By inflation and earnings confusion. 84 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: This is a very very difficult point to take any 85 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 1: individual companies as a representative of what's going to happen 86 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: for the market at large, and that's been the case 87 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 1: for much of two all right, well, how about let's 88 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: take Mike Wilson's point on you know, he says, when 89 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: inflation comes down, um, the parts that are going to 90 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 1: remain resilient our shelter, wages and some services, and then 91 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 1: goods will con any decelery. And that's not a constructive 92 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 1: picture for the sp It's definitely not a constructive picture 93 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: for the goods centric industries within the SNP five completely 94 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: agree with that scenario. Did centric consumer companies generally indicative 95 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: of what's going to happen at the market at large? 96 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,359 Speaker 1: Is my point of contention with that piece. Hey, Cameron, So, 97 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess the issue is do we have 98 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 1: a risk material risk this week of being like really 99 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 1: negatively surprised the inflation comes in really hot? Of course, 100 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 1: I mean I would say that any analysis is looking 101 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: at the last twenty or thirty years of inflation what 102 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: it means for earnings isn't particularly useful because this is 103 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: a completely different inflation regime, um than than we've had, uh, 104 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 1: you know, central bankers Allen Greenspan kind of defined price 105 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: stability is that level of inflation that doesn't materially impact 106 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: the decisions of consumers and businesses in the economy. And 107 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: that's more or less been the case, um from the 108 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: late eighties, uh really through until last year. UM. So 109 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: this is a very different scenario to what we've experienced 110 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 1: in the nineties, uh and the naughties and and the 111 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: teams on the one hand and on the other hand, 112 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 1: referencing demand, I mean, the fact stated intention is to 113 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: reduce demand, to break it in the supply um. I 114 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 1: mean they haven't. They couldn't be any more clear on 115 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 1: what they're trying to accomplish. Is that in the Is 116 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: that in the price of the stock market? I think 117 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: that's that's really really debatable. Certainly it is not embedded 118 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 1: in the level of earnings expectations. I think over the 119 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: next over the next few years, and if you look 120 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: at market valuations based on the on the present value 121 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 1: of those future earnings expectations, the market is not cheap, 122 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: all right. Camera great stuff camera christ Macro strategist, Bloomberg 123 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: News Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg intelligence equity strategist. This is Bloomberg. 124 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 1: Let's get over right now to Chris Beal's he's the 125 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: CEO of weed Maps. It's nasdack listed. The ticker is 126 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: m A p S. And to me this seems like 127 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: a growth story. Chris. We just got you know, legal 128 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: weed starting to sell around New York. Um, not entirely 129 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: legally yet, but I guess people will use your app 130 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: to find a place where they can uh safely and 131 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: securely buy weed and um, you know, get reliable quality. 132 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: Is that is that the case? Yeah? Well, actually one 133 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 1: step further, it's sort of what we provide is sort 134 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 1: of like Amazon or door Dash for cannabis. So it 135 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: let's retailers and brands showcase their products and enable online ordering, 136 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: and then we have a bunch of software that helps 137 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: them do delivery, post order follow ups, CRM, that sort 138 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: of thing. But yeah, the idea is to take something 139 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: that's traditionally been scary, hard to understand and make it 140 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 1: easy to shop for consumer is online. So you know 141 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: how many states are you active in? Can you get 142 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: delivery service? I mean, delivery service has been the only 143 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: way to get weed in New York for like thirty years, 144 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: but can you actually get legal delivery service now here? Yeah, 145 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: so when in this varies from state to state. Some 146 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: states only allow in store pick up that sort of thing, 147 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: but in New York they will allow delivery. So you'll 148 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: be able to order on weed maps, on the app 149 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 1: on your phone, put stuff in a cart. You will 150 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 1: be able to or you are able to. You will 151 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,719 Speaker 1: be able to win adult use open So right now, 152 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: it's just medical so you could right now just for 153 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: medical shops if you have a medical card. But when 154 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: adult use, these disposies that can sell you know, for 155 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 1: basically recreational open up. You'll be able to get order 156 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: on the phone and get delivery right to your door. Chris, 157 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: are you active in states that have been open for 158 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: recreational cannabis like Colorado for example, And if so, kind 159 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:02,439 Speaker 1: of what's your experience been. Yeah, So, so we're ubiquitous. 160 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 1: We're in all thirty seven states that have cannabis legalization. 161 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: We're actually a fourteen year old company. Were started out 162 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: in California, and we're we operate internationally and seven international 163 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: jurisdictions at this point as well. So yeah, we're in Colorado. 164 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 1: Interestingly enough, Colorado has very limited delivery. Despite what people 165 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: might think, they're really kind of just rolling out pilots 166 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: for it um. But we see we operate in all 167 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 1: these different states, and we see very big differences in 168 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 1: how the businesses operate, and our software has to deal 169 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: with the different rules and compliance regulations um. And then 170 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:36,959 Speaker 1: the way consumer shop varies a lot. I think New 171 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: York will be very similar in terms of consumers shopping 172 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: habits to California, which makes sense because New York has 173 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: been buying California cannabis for the last thirty years. So, 174 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: I mean my experience is when I was a kid, 175 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:53,319 Speaker 1: you know what we You'd have a delivery guy come 176 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: and meet you, come to your door, you'd get in 177 00:09:56,240 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: his car, whatever. But now that these dispensries are opening up, 178 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 1: it's too much fun to go there. Why would I 179 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: want to get delivery? It's going to Empire is like 180 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 1: going to the Dylan's candy store of weed? Um. Is 181 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 1: that gonna wear off? Am I gonna get tired of 182 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: that and want to go for delivery later on? Well? 183 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: So the thing is is avengeal for a lot of 184 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: people when they become regular cannabis consumers. And look, we're 185 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:24,079 Speaker 1: seeing a lot of that people who are substituting cannabis 186 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: for alcohol as a healthier alternative. You know what you 187 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: want or you want to you don't want to go 188 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: through the hassle and going to the dispensary and a 189 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: dispensaries the lines can be long, and it can be 190 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: you know, a bit confusing. But the other big use 191 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: case we're seeing in mature states, the average cannabis dispensary 192 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 1: has over a thousands skews, and so we see a 193 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: lot of people pulling out weed maps when they're in 194 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 1: the store just to go through and understand what are 195 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: all these different products? Because you know, to go from 196 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: that that guy saying, hey, come get in my car, 197 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:54,839 Speaker 1: he only has what he can carry in his backpack 198 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 1: to a dispensary, you got over a thousand different things. 199 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 1: And you look at segments like uh concentrates and all 200 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: these new types of concentrates. Look at edibles, there's a 201 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 1: huge growth in the beverage segment. How do you as 202 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 1: a consumer makes sense of all of that? I mean, 203 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: and a lot of times the dispensary doesn't even fully 204 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 1: understand everything because the brand explosion is just in the 205 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: early innings right now, and it's accelerating. By the way, 206 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,239 Speaker 1: do you have a team of people reviewing these products 207 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,679 Speaker 1: or do you rely on you know, written in reviews 208 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: from consumers. So what we do is we rely on 209 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,599 Speaker 1: written in reviews from verified purchasers. So people who have 210 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: it's it's I have to be careful. I say this 211 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 1: because Amazon, the Amazon review systems fallen under a lot 212 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,560 Speaker 1: of I think rightful criticism. But what we do is 213 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: we look at consumers who have purchased online through weed Maps, 214 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 1: through the marketplace, and then say, give us feedback, give 215 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: us reviews on things like how it clinically affected you, 216 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: how was your store experience, how is the delivery experience, 217 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 1: and there's other things we can do. We do have 218 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: a content and learning part of the site to learn 219 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 1: about strains, to learn about new products, where we do 220 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 1: have expert reviewers in common taters and we can pull 221 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: some of that across. The other thing is um A 222 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 1: lot of what we do is we have one of 223 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: the largest brand catalogs out there. So many times the 224 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: brands will write, they'll provide the images, they'll provide the 225 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: descriptions and more than that the ascribed clinical effects, and 226 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 1: then we syndicate that through all the retailers who carry 227 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 1: those branded products. Chris, As far as the stock, what 228 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 1: is going on. You're trading for less than sales, you know, 229 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: three times earnings right now, These are not numbers that 230 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 1: we typically see, even for companies that are distressed. Yeah, 231 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: and on top of that, we've been profitable for essentially 232 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 1: our entire history. Uh. We were effectively bootstrapped until we 233 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 1: went public. Uh. You know, look, I think what you 234 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 1: see it's it's frustrating to me. And I think it's 235 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 1: one of those reminders of as a CEO, you have 236 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 1: to control what you can control, which is us growing 237 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 1: adoption of the marketplace and that. But I think partially 238 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 1: what you're seeing is a reflection of stigma. There's still 239 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 1: a lot of institutional investors who won't invest in the sector, 240 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: even for a NASDAQ listed UH technology and sillery provider 241 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: like maps UH. And I think you know at the 242 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 1: end of the day that the market is a factor 243 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: of supply and demand, and on the demand side, Uh, 244 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: there's just far too many funds who are reluctant to 245 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 1: invest in the cannabis spector despite the fact that some 246 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: people estimate that's going to be a hundred billion dollar 247 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: industry at the end of this decade UM. So you know, 248 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 1: we're out there trying to educate people, make them understand 249 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 1: that there's very deep modes around this business in terms 250 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: of the regulatory requirements, the data science you have to do. 251 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: You know, we're solving problems that Frankly, Go Puff and 252 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:39,199 Speaker 1: a bunch of other online market places haven't solved because 253 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: we need to we Yeah, we can't touch the actual 254 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: cannabis product or do we ever want to. So, but 255 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: we had President Biden recently kind of you know, say, 256 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 1: you know he's gonna expunge federal marijuana convictions. I mean 257 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 1: that had to be a step in the right direction. Yeah, 258 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,319 Speaker 1: it looks I think there's a lot of twists and 259 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 1: turns to that because I think it is potentially less 260 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: impactful than people think on the part in side, because 261 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,559 Speaker 1: there aren't a lot of federal prisoners who are under 262 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,319 Speaker 1: federal custody for simple possession. A lot of its trafficking, 263 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 1: or they'll attack on other charges to get a plea. 264 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: But the promise to reschedule if they follow through on 265 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: that could meaningfully change things. Um, you know, when we've 266 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: tried to sponsor scientific research on cannabis, those researchers have 267 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 1: in some cases gotten threats to have their National Science 268 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: Foundation or in i H grants funding polled because they're 269 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: doing cannabis research. So the rescheduling would help there. But 270 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: but the biggest thing that I think people are missing 271 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: is it's a stigma reduction. When you look at why 272 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 1: funds aren't investing in cannabis names, it's not because they can't. 273 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 1: It's a stigma thing. When you look at why major 274 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: credit card providers don't bank or don't provide credit for 275 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: financial side, it's that all right. Chris great stuff, Chris 276 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:59,160 Speaker 1: Bal's CEO of Weed Maps on the cannabis business. One 277 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: talk technology, you here, and I'm gonna talk us China 278 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: supply chain is But we found out the beginning of 279 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 1: the pandemic that it is not good to be overreliant 280 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 1: on one source of stuff. And like we saw it 281 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: into technology space with chips and so woulgin Hoe, which 282 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: by the way, is my favorite name on Wall Street. 283 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 1: Wuginhoe is a senior technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's 284 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: got a research report out entitled Untangling US China tech 285 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: supply chain issues. He says it's difficult but doable. Wulgin, 286 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Talk to us 287 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: about kind of what we've learned over the last two 288 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: and a half three years about that supply chain reliance 289 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: on China and maybe how some of the technology companies 290 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: are trying to untangle that right now. Thanks for having 291 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: me on, Paul so Um. It's it's clear over the 292 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 1: past couple of years that China is a main supplier 293 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: not only for for chips, but more importantly electronics manufacturing. 294 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: If in our research support that I worked with our 295 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: Asia UH Boomberg Tmt colleagues, is that roughly of all 296 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: of the electronics manufacturing source of of China. And it 297 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: kind of makes sense right over the years manufacturing shifted 298 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 1: over from US and Mexico and it and moved over 299 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: to China because of economies of scales, because what we 300 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: are fair and focused on margin and trying to unentangle 301 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: that is going to be uh quite a task. We 302 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: also have Brendon Murray with us. Uh he is the 303 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg trades are out of Atlanta? Is that right in Lanta? Brendon. 304 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: I'm in London. Oh in London, sorry, um, uh in London, Brendon, 305 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: What do we know about um President Biden right now? 306 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 1: And the rules on chip makers? Are the rules on 307 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 1: technological access by companies in China? Yeah, Well, what we 308 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: know right now is that that pre President Biden is 309 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: trying to make some of those decisions for uh, for 310 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 1: for industry rather than uh, you know, basically to try 311 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: to make it more difficult for for China to produce 312 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 1: its chips and easier for Eric companies to get these 313 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 1: semiconductors that you know, going just about you know, every 314 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: household appliance that we buy. So that's that's the administration 315 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 1: stance right now. It's it's you know, some of it's 316 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: borrowed from the Trump administration to uh, you know, try 317 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,719 Speaker 1: to sort of create our own industries here that you know, 318 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 1: many of them migrated away. So so the tech supply 319 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: chains you know, are definitely well embedded in China and 320 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 1: elsewhere in Asia, but they can they can make some 321 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:38,120 Speaker 1: progress on them with government incentives and and uh and 322 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: and penalties um, you know against Chinese producers. But what 323 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 1: is this? First of all, I thought you were I 324 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: mistakenly thought you were in Atlanta because you used to 325 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: write for the Atlanta Business Chronicle, So that was I 326 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 1: guess a while back. But what does this mean for 327 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,119 Speaker 1: the chip industry in China? I mean, is this a 328 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:04,119 Speaker 1: huge blow? Um? You know, will it whither away or 329 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: is it still going to be I mean, I assume 330 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: it's the main place that chips are made globally. Yeah, 331 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 1: I mean, I think judging by the market reaction in 332 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:18,160 Speaker 1: China today to the news from the US on Friday 333 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 1: through the weekend, you know, investors do expect it to 334 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: be uh, you know, to to to you know, to 335 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:28,400 Speaker 1: to to cause some cause some problems for the Chinese producers. Hey, 336 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 1: would you know I think you know, at some point 337 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: during this pandemic, when this this issue, the supply chain 338 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 1: issues relates to chips became you know, really prevalent, everybody 339 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,199 Speaker 1: was just saying, well, just let's onshore this stuff. And 340 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 1: there's been some announcements in the great state of Ohio, 341 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: in the state of New York about maybe bringing some 342 00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 1: of these fabs onshore. Is that really a thing, Is 343 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 1: that a solution or is that just more kind of 344 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: rhetoric and politics? Well, UM. Well, the Biding administration is 345 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,080 Speaker 1: actually putting their money where the mouth is, right, the 346 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: fifty two billion doll the Chips Act is supposed to 347 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 1: help UM initiate an investment into UH some of these 348 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 1: facts and manufacture these UM advanced technology chips. Right, So, 349 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 1: so they are trying to onshore some of that to 350 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 1: to lessen the reliance. Now, now, you know, just just 351 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 1: to pick it back on on Brandon's point that the 352 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 1: one thing I will say is that they're trying to 353 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: what the US is trying to do with some of 354 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:29,679 Speaker 1: the I guess renewed UM sanctions on China is to 355 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 1: slow down the manufacture of advanced ships. Now, now the 356 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 1: one China doesn't really make many advanced ships. It's it's 357 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 1: it's mostly Taiwan and and if anything, is UM the 358 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 1: US trying to mitigate the reliance on UM on Taiwan 359 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: on some of these advanced ships because of the geo politics. UM. 360 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: These are two issues, well, the supply chain and chips 361 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 1: are two issues that have become conflated and intertwined over 362 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 1: the crisis. But UM, we should keep them separate. I 363 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 1: guess right, Brendan, Because you have a great, big story 364 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,640 Speaker 1: out in the Bloomberg today showing that we could see 365 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: the supply chain returning to some sense of normalcy. And 366 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: throughout the story you talk about the reduction in weight 367 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: times that ships have outside of harbors. Yeah, we definitely 368 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: need to make a distinction between tech supply chains and 369 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 1: normal supply chains. You know that they are they are 370 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: inter linked to some extent, but but tech supply chains 371 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 1: are very you know, very complex and and and difficult 372 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 1: to replicate in other countries. But but for other things, 373 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,959 Speaker 1: more basic sort of lower value goods or you know, 374 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,439 Speaker 1: textiles or things that don't require you know, lots of 375 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 1: you know, complicated machinery or engineering can be can be 376 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 1: produced and are being produced and have been shifting out 377 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 1: of China for you know, many years, even before the 378 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 1: pandemic and the US Trade Board with with with China, 379 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 1: So so that shift has been ongoing and and and 380 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: what we're seeing now is, uh, you know, if you 381 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 1: set the tech supply chain aside for a second, we're 382 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 1: seeing the demand cooling around around Europe and the US 383 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,399 Speaker 1: in particular. So so we're seeing a lot of that 384 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: congestion that we saw. You know that most of US 385 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 1: is sort of transportation related as opposed to production related. 386 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 1: So some of that is freeing up just because there's 387 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: there's demand that's coming off. You know, the peak, the 388 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 1: peak levels that it is seen over the past couple 389 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 1: of years. All right, Brendan, great stuff, Really appreciate you. 390 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 1: You're taking a time. Brendan Murray Trades are for Bloomberg 391 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: News based in London, and Bloomberg News is all over 392 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: this global supply chain issue, as is Bloomberg Intelligence Investment 393 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 1: Research Wujinho technology analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. They have a big, 394 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 1: big report out on the terminal bond market, closed equity 395 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,959 Speaker 1: market open. Who's in charge out there? I mean, somebody's 396 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 1: got to get it together. Here, let's continue our discussion 397 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 1: of technology. It's time we're keep our focus on the 398 00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: chip business, um because a lot of industries penned upon 399 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,199 Speaker 1: the chip business. You didn't think so until we had 400 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,359 Speaker 1: this pandemic. Then you're like, oh yeah, chips are and everything. 401 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 1: Men Deep Seeing, senior technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence joins 402 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 1: us here in a Bloomberg Interactive broker studio and we 403 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: talked about chips. We always like to talk about the 404 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 1: auto industry because Matt truck was stuck in somewhere in 405 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 1: Mexico because you couldn't get enough chips for I don't 406 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,959 Speaker 1: know what, the electric windows not because of that, probably 407 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: some other reasons. But Kevin Tyning, he's got all the 408 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 1: answers when it comes to the auto business, senior automotive 409 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 1: analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence. So, man, deep, I'm looking again 410 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 1: the Philly Semiconductor Index, the socks. It's down again today, 411 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: the lowest since October. What's going on in the chip business? 412 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: I thought we needed these things well. Of what happened 413 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,160 Speaker 1: last week was m D pre announced and they said 414 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:49,439 Speaker 1: their client segment revenue will be half of what they 415 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 1: expected back in August, So not a lot of time 416 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: had passed from their prior guidance, and within two months 417 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,840 Speaker 1: they come out and say it will be a billion 418 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 1: dollars lower and most likely that will be the case 419 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: for the fourth quarter as well, So not just one 420 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: billion lowerd for the year, but two billion. And so 421 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: what that translates into is, you know, pieces shipments being 422 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: down almost fifty sixty million, but PCs, I mean, who 423 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 1: uses a PC anymore? What? What is this? Is it? Motorola? 424 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,679 Speaker 1: Is it a Nokia PC and come on, give me 425 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: a break. Chips are used in electric vehicles and cellular 426 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 1: telephones other than Nokia. Um, you know, they're used in 427 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: a million other products besides personal computers. I'm not running DOSS. 428 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: I don't care about PCs. So well, these businesses are 429 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 1: much more diversified now than they were five years back. 430 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 1: And so m D does have a data center business, 431 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: they have gaming business. Gaming is going down as well, 432 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 1: so data center is what is holding off Fell. But 433 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: guess what when everything is going down, the cloud guys, 434 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 1: the hyper skillers are gonna say, okay, why are we 435 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: spending thirty billion dollars on capex, you know, setting up 436 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,400 Speaker 1: these new servers when the overall demand is going down. 437 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 1: So eventually they'll pair back as well, and that's why 438 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: you see such violence stock reaction. All right, Kevin Tynan, 439 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 1: you've been whining, Matt's been winding, all the gearheads have 440 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: been whining that they can't get their vehicles because there's 441 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: not enough chips out there. What are the good folks 442 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 1: in Detroit telling you? Yeah, I mean, I'm more of 443 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 1: the opinion and this is just my opinion that look, 444 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 1: this is the the constrained output by the manufacturers is 445 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 1: a little bit more orchestrated than people like to think. 446 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: And it's not that there isn't a chip shortage. I 447 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: just think that our at least our domestic manufacturers are 448 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,639 Speaker 1: managing it such that it's enabling them to move up 449 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 1: market basically in every you know, vehicle architecture they can. 450 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 1: So there's not a chip shortage. According to m D 451 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: there's not. They wish there was a chip shortage, right 452 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 1: specific pockets there is. So for autos there is still 453 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:58,639 Speaker 1: a shortage. But for PCs, well, which one is is 454 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 1: autos the pocket and PCs is like the whole enchilada, 455 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 1: or is PCs a pocket? Autos is much smaller. Are 456 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 1: you hearing from Detroit and from the other companies that 457 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 1: they can in fact get the chips. Well, here's the thing, right, 458 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: I can get the chips I need for the expensive 459 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 1: vehicles that have all the margin for me, right, and 460 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: I can build those. But those darn things that you 461 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: know I can sell for eighteen thousand dollars that I 462 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: lose money on, I can't find enough chips for those. 463 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 1: And then this is what you get is that you know, 464 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:32,360 Speaker 1: everybody talking about affordability and that automakers are missing out 465 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,360 Speaker 1: because they're going to have an affordability crisis. And I'm 466 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 1: saying they're making the affordability crisis. This is exactly where 467 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 1: they want to be. They they want to be selling 468 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,880 Speaker 1: you sixty five tho dollar pickup trucks instead of eighteen 469 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 1: thousand dollar small coops and sedans. So you know, the 470 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:54,880 Speaker 1: idea that that the automakers will produce more if there 471 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 1: were more chips, I think is I think it's wrong. 472 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 1: I think this is where they want production going to 473 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:05,959 Speaker 1: be relative to demand, keep it in balance. Where they 474 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: don't want it to take a year to get your 475 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 1: sixty pickup truck. They don't want you to wait two 476 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 1: years to get your Bronco. Right. But if but if 477 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: you do have to wait and you're gonna pay over sticker, 478 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,440 Speaker 1: then we'll take that trade, I guess for a time being. 479 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,440 Speaker 1: But the bottom line is these are two different conversations. 480 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,119 Speaker 1: I mean no offense to Eric, but man Deep and 481 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 1: Kevin no I shouldn't necessarily be round table because Kevin 482 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 1: is worried about at least automakers saying there aren't enough chips, 483 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,119 Speaker 1: and man Deep is talking about the company's he covers, 484 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:39,720 Speaker 1: saying like we're swimming in chips, as chips are in everything, 485 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:43,920 Speaker 1: and I didn't even care about a chip until now, 486 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,400 Speaker 1: Like I'm looking at looking under every hood, every nook 487 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 1: and cranny, deceive there's a microchip hiding there. Man, deep 488 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,919 Speaker 1: are they ever gonna is this? You know, in the 489 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 1: great state of Ohio, in the state of New York 490 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 1: they're talking about building fabs. Is that what you guys 491 00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 1: call them, Like the manufacturing plans for making these chips, 492 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 1: is that it really going to be a thing that 493 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,120 Speaker 1: can move the needle? It will and these require you know, planning, 494 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 1: So by the time you know the Ohio fabs come online, 495 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 1: there will be But at the same time, the good 496 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 1: thing is, you know, at the geopolitical level, you see 497 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 1: these tensions and you know the direction where things are aheaded. 498 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 1: So eventually you know there will be a point when 499 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:27,200 Speaker 1: the US based fabs will have a higher utilization, and 500 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 1: you know you can do a lot more here because look, 501 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: these are asset intensive businesses and you require the cap expense. 502 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,959 Speaker 1: So it's great that the government is involved now because 503 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 1: companies can do it on their own. Kevin I just 504 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 1: literally just twenty seconds here. Uh, is ubs right? Is 505 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: Ford's profits going to get cut in half next year? Well? 506 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,159 Speaker 1: My so my question is where is this you know, 507 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 1: overproduction coming from. Is it because demand falls through the 508 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 1: floor or because they think that automakers once there are chips, um, 509 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 1: they're just gonna accidentally overproduce and it's gonna kill affordability 510 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:03,919 Speaker 1: and pricing and everything. And I'm saying that's just not 511 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 1: how it's gonna work, all right. Kevin Tyne and good stuff. 512 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,840 Speaker 1: He covers the auto industry, which is basically a technology 513 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 1: industry with four wheels. I'm convinced. Uh. And then Man 514 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,920 Speaker 1: Deep saying he is a senior tech analyst covers all 515 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 1: things technology for Bloomberg Intelligence. He was actually in studio 516 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 1: today as he is most as gold star for for 517 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: Man Deep. And thanks to Kevin Tyne. Time to go 518 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,720 Speaker 1: with geopolitics right here, we're gonna roundtable this series of stories. 519 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:34,439 Speaker 1: Dr Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurisa Center, 520 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: joins us as well as Roz Matheson. She covers Bloomberg News. 521 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,680 Speaker 1: Executive editor for Internet International Government joins us here to 522 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 1: talk about a whole host of geopolitical issues, and let's 523 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 1: start with Ukraine because it seems to ratchet it up 524 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 1: over the weekend and Dr ConA like to start there. 525 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 1: Just give us your thoughts on kind of how you 526 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 1: see the situation in Ukraine, maybe the events over the weekend, 527 00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 1: and maybe what's next to come. Okay, So on the 528 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:07,720 Speaker 1: eighth of October, one day after putting seventeenth birthday, there 529 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 1: was an explosion on the Kirsch Bridge. That's a bridge 530 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 1: that connected Crimean peninsula with the mainland. Uh and um 531 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: it disrupted the traffic on the bridge. Most of the 532 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 1: traffic is repaired now it's a multi media bridge. It 533 00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 1: has UM cars, railroad, electricity and whatnot. Uh So it's 534 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 1: a strategic supply line for the Russian military in the 535 00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 1: Crimea and in the south of Ukraine, in the Carson region. 536 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 1: After that UM, the Russian started bombarding Kiev, the capital 537 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 1: of Ukraine, Kharkiv, the second largest city, and Viv, the 538 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 1: third largest city, as well as other cities all over Ukraine, 539 00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 1: primarily taking out the energy infrastructure. So we have reports 540 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:05,880 Speaker 1: of electricity being shut down in the major Ukrainian cities. 541 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 1: And I don't need to explain to our audience. How 542 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,760 Speaker 1: devastating it is for the civilians. Also a lot of 543 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:19,680 Speaker 1: these missile hits were against civilian targets. You know, That's 544 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 1: what I don't get. I don't understand why, you know, um, 545 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: taking out the bridge to um To to block one 546 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:34,479 Speaker 1: place where Russian troops come into the theater makes sense. 547 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: That's a strategic move. Why does Putin then turn around 548 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 1: and attack civilians as if that bridge was somehow off limits. 549 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 1: The bridge, of course is not off limits because the 550 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 1: troops of fuel the AMMA are all going into the 551 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 1: theater through that bridge. Um. But attacking civilians is the 552 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 1: last time I checked. It's a war cron and I 553 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 1: think one of the responses that Biden administration and the 554 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 1: Europeans need to do now is to start identifying who 555 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 1: are the war criminals of this war. The Ukrainians are 556 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 1: doing some of that work, of course, but I think 557 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 1: this needs to be escalated because these people need to 558 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:23,560 Speaker 1: understand that as long as this war is continuing, they're 559 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:29,320 Speaker 1: piling up what may lead to their life uh sentences 560 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 1: in the hade Ros I want to bring you in. 561 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 1: Roz Matheson, Executive editor for International Government of Bloomberg News 562 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 1: you know, ros has been I guess, you know, always 563 00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 1: a concern in the back of folks mind that maybe 564 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 1: President Putin will get so desperate that the nuclear option 565 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 1: maybe on the table. What's the latest reporting there? Of course, 566 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,720 Speaker 1: that remains the concern, But he's been threatening that in 567 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 1: some shape or films since the war began. The question 568 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 1: is how much is he's back against the war the war, 569 00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 1: and how much does the war continue to go against 570 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 1: him on the ground, and therefore, what are his options 571 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,520 Speaker 1: really to get any kind of result. I mean, what 572 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 1: he's had some success in so far is sort of 573 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,400 Speaker 1: sowing a bit of disarray within EU more broadly over 574 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 1: energy access going into winter, certainly cutting off energy supplies 575 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 1: two countries um and as we can see within Ukraine 576 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 1: itself as we're just hearing cutting off electricity supply with 577 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: some of his attacks today. And if you want to 578 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 1: splinter Europe further and you want to really push them 579 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:31,840 Speaker 1: on the unity question with Ukraine, do you go so 580 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 1: far as to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine to 581 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,160 Speaker 1: sort of see what the response would be, And that 582 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 1: maybe the question right now, there's no there's no sense 583 00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 1: that he's moving nuclear assets towards that, but certainly he's 584 00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:48,280 Speaker 1: leaving that option open, and that's really putting us in 585 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,080 Speaker 1: quite a dangerous phase. As you can see today from 586 00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,320 Speaker 1: the extent of the missile attacks that have gone on 587 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:58,960 Speaker 1: across Ukraine. He's suffered numerous personal prestige blows. The bridge himself, 588 00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 1: that was something you drive a truck over when it 589 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 1: was opened, after it was built, So for him it's personal. 590 00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 1: Dr Cohen, what's the likelihood of the Russians using nuclear weapons? Well, 591 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 1: this is UH sixty four billion dollar question. And I'm 592 00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,960 Speaker 1: not talking about the Democratic Party fundraiser at which President 593 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 1: Biden found it appropriate to discuss this dire and grave topic. 594 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 1: I think the conversation about whether puts In is using 595 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:33,240 Speaker 1: tactical nukes or god forbid, it escalates to strategic nuclear exchange. 596 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,120 Speaker 1: We should could should not be done as a part 597 00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 1: of a fundraiser. It should be a serious conversation, probably 598 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,360 Speaker 1: in a speech to the nation by the President. UM. 599 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:47,160 Speaker 1: I think the chances are all my contacts in Russia, 600 00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 1: outside of Russia in the US government are saying that 601 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:57,520 Speaker 1: the probability of this is growing. We started UH several 602 00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 1: months ago talking about I was talking about people corrected 603 00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 1: me and said, no, thirty now I think it's over. 604 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 1: It's quite possible that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons. 605 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,799 Speaker 1: And the big question is, of course, what's dex Are 606 00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 1: we going to respond, How are we going to respond? 607 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,640 Speaker 1: How Natal allies are going to respond? And this these 608 00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:25,319 Speaker 1: are the uncharted waters. This is more grave and more 609 00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,720 Speaker 1: diet than the Cuban missile crisis, in which nuclear weapons 610 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 1: were not used. And and and how do Russian allies respond? 611 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,680 Speaker 1: I mean Risal And let me ask you, um, how 612 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,919 Speaker 1: has the Russian relationship with China fair throughout this war? 613 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 1: And you know, if we get there, they have to 614 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,080 Speaker 1: probably reas the Chinese probably have to reassess their their 615 00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:49,440 Speaker 1: support for Putin. We have to imagine that the Chinese 616 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 1: president is not particularly happy that this is going on, 617 00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,399 Speaker 1: or certainly that it's dragged on so long. Right as 618 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:58,000 Speaker 1: he goes into his own leadership moment in China next 619 00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,719 Speaker 1: week where he wants to be reindorsed for a third 620 00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,240 Speaker 1: term because he doesn't need this kind of mess occurring, 621 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,480 Speaker 1: does he particularly care about the war in Ukraine. That's 622 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:10,360 Speaker 1: up for debate. Um, certainly, Um. He has continued to 623 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,320 Speaker 1: do business with Russia. As of other countries, including India 624 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: for example, UM in trading. But China has been pretty 625 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,200 Speaker 1: careful not to step too much into the bounds of sanctions, 626 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 1: even if they haven't signed up for them. They're being 627 00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,560 Speaker 1: pretty careful. UM and he in some ways he and 628 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,320 Speaker 1: Russia do still need each other, um as sort of 629 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,719 Speaker 1: a bulwalk against against the West as we move into 630 00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:36,240 Speaker 1: a really truly multipolar world. UM that there's vested interests 631 00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,799 Speaker 1: there is he probably particularly happy with the way that 632 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin is conducting this. You would you would think not, 633 00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:46,040 Speaker 1: and he's probably expressed that privately. Will he publicly criticized 634 00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,200 Speaker 1: Russia if they test, if they do, if they do 635 00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:52,439 Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon potentially, But there's still a relationship there, 636 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,200 Speaker 1: all right, So sobering discussion points there. Again, the odds 637 00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 1: of a new from Dr Cohen are much higher than 638 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,880 Speaker 1: I would have thought. Dr Ariel O and senior fellow 639 00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 1: Atlantic Council Eurasia Center and Ros Math is an executive 640 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,080 Speaker 1: editor for International Government for Bloomberg News. With again some 641 00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:14,080 Speaker 1: sobering assessments of the situation in Ukraine. Thanks for listening 642 00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:17,600 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen 643 00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:21,920 Speaker 1: to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 644 00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:26,839 Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller. Put 645 00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,520 Speaker 1: on fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before 646 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,400 Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg 647 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:32,680 Speaker 1: Radio