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Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle. I have rian warmly

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Speaker 1: joined as always by Mike Mayer, and we are looking

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Speaker 1: back to the first half of the season. We're looking

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Speaker 1: ahead to the second half of the season. It is

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Speaker 1: the All Star break, so it wasn't really any actual

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Speaker 1: baseball being played this week. There was some last weekend,

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Speaker 1: but we decided, rather than doing our usual kind of

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Speaker 1: layout of the show, that we would react to the

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Speaker 1: Horme run derby in the All Star Game, and then

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Speaker 1: we'd offer some superlatives biggest first half surprise, biggest first

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Speaker 1: half disappointment, predictions, bold predictions for the second half of

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Speaker 1: the season, and then we will get back to our

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Speaker 1: two start pitcher competition at the end of the program.

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Speaker 1: Does that sound like a good plan for you?

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Speaker 2: Mayor yeah, that sounds good.

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Speaker 3: Without a ton of actual baseball to talk about, we

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Speaker 3: can go into the disappointment that was the Horme run

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Speaker 3: derby if you're watching from my perspective and you know,

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Speaker 3: the underwhelming All Star Game, and get into all the

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Speaker 3: other stuff you mentioned too.

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Speaker 1: We will dive into it all. Yeah, and this will

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Speaker 1: be a shorter episode I expect as well. Like I said,

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Speaker 1: kind of just something to uh to tide us over

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Speaker 1: during the break that we have here. Quick note for

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Speaker 1: everyone that if you like this content, the best free

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Speaker 1: way to show your support and encourage more content like

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Speaker 1: this is to leave a positive review at fantasypros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash MLB review. Let's dive right in, we are

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Speaker 1: going to react to. Let's let's talk about the Uh.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the All Star Game first, because I

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Speaker 1: think it's uh, there wasn't that much to talk about

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Speaker 1: American League one, as they do almost every year. Uh

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Speaker 1: shoho Tani did hit a bomb for the National League.

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Speaker 1: That was a very fun moment, and then pretty much

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Speaker 1: everything else that went right went right for the American League.

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Speaker 1: Anthony Santander got a base hit. That was the highlight

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Speaker 1: for me as an Orioles fan. Uh, because the rest,

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Speaker 1: I mean, corn Burn's starting was cool. It was a

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Speaker 1: you know, a fine inning. He gave up the walk

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Speaker 1: and the uh you know, the double, no runs, it

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Speaker 1: was whatever, and none of the hitters did anything of No.

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Speaker 1: Gotta have made a decent play, I guess, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: it was really kind of nondescript. What what did you

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Speaker 1: think watching the game.

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Speaker 3: Well, I didn't watch the game, so I didn't have

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Speaker 3: a whole ton of thoughts. I watched it back, so

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Speaker 3: I watched like highlights and I watched like parts of it,

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Speaker 3: but like you know, I just had other stuff going on.

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Speaker 3: Like I said last week, the All Star Game just

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Speaker 3: doesn't do it for me. I want I want the

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Speaker 3: All Star Game to matter. I wanted to count for

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Speaker 3: the World Series, and so I'm emotionally boycotting it until

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Speaker 3: they bring that back.

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Speaker 1: I was supposed to have a softball game last night,

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Speaker 1: so I was gonna not watch, and the only thing

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Speaker 1: I was going to go back it was to watch

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Speaker 1: just the Orioles moments if there were any. Then I

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Speaker 1: that you know, the game got rained out here in

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Speaker 1: Denver last night, so I was home, so I was like,

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Speaker 1: I guess I'll have it on while I'm like doing

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Speaker 1: other stuff. But yeah, it's it's always the least compelling

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Speaker 1: part of All Star break is the game itself. Even

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Speaker 1: though it is the best All Star game of the

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Speaker 1: major sports, it's still like I'm with you. In general,

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Speaker 1: I really only care to see my favorite players do

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Speaker 1: stuff I don't like, like, even as exciting as it

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Speaker 1: is to be like, oh, we get Paul Skans against

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Speaker 1: Gunner and Soto and Judge even that is like okay,

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Speaker 1: like I'm somewhat interested in that, but it's I wasn't

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Speaker 1: like this is going to bring in new fans. You know,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna watch the game for the first seven years

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Speaker 1: because of this. It's it's it's fine.

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Speaker 3: And there people saying that, but like Skiens starting, They're like,

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Speaker 3: this is gonna be so big for the game.

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Speaker 2: I was like, no, it's not.

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Speaker 1: I saw I saw people that I follow who I

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Speaker 1: will not you know name publicly, but who said they

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Speaker 1: had not watched in like a decade and they were

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Speaker 1: gonna watch because we had Skiens starting. And I'm like,

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Speaker 1: these people are not actually baseball fans, and that's not

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Speaker 1: be like gatekeeping fandom. Like I'm like these they would

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Speaker 1: admit they are not baseball fans, like, well, now I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna watch because of Skiens. I just I don't think

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Speaker 1: that that head to head matchup is so cool that

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Speaker 1: it's going to bring in non baseball fans to a

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Speaker 1: game that ultimately doesn't matter.

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Speaker 3: The best I can describe it with like how I

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Speaker 3: feel about it now is that it's become like second

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Speaker 3: screen viewing. For me, like it's not going to be

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Speaker 3: my primary screen anymore, Like.

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Speaker 1: It was basic always that for me to be truthful.

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Speaker 1: Now the home Run Derby is different. I was also

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Speaker 1: so still have a softball game Monday night, and I

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Speaker 1: was I was recording the home run Derby with the

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Speaker 1: intention of not getting it spoiled and going home and

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Speaker 1: watching it all like that I do care about. And

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Speaker 1: that game also ended up getting rained out, so I

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Speaker 1: got to just watch it normally with everybody else. The

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Speaker 1: Homer Derby went quite well for me as a quick

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Speaker 1: recap for everyone. Of our teams that we drafted last week,

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Speaker 1: Mayor got Gunner Henderson, Marcelo Zuna, Adelis Garcia, and Alec

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Speaker 1: Bohm and Gunner was the first overall pick and he

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Speaker 1: had the fewest home runs in the opening round. My

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Speaker 1: team was Alonso, Bobby Wit, Junior, Jose Ramirez, and Taoscar Hernandez.

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Speaker 1: We messaged each other before the event kind of saying, well,

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Speaker 1: maybe we should just add up all the home runs

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Speaker 1: they hit and kind of have it team versus team

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Speaker 1: instead of strictly just you know, whoever drafted the winner,

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Speaker 1: like we talked about last week. It didn't matter because

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Speaker 1: I got both of those. I had both finalists, so

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Speaker 1: I was guaranteed to have the winner. By the time

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Speaker 1: we got to the championship round. The total home runs

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Speaker 1: that your team hit was eighty one. The total home

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Speaker 1: runs that my team hit was one hundred and forty four.

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Speaker 1: My faith in Bobby Wit Junior was proven to be

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Speaker 1: very correct, even though he didn't end up winning. He

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Speaker 1: obviously just barely missed tying by like two feet. It

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Speaker 1: was his very last swing, but he made it to

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Speaker 1: the finals. He hit the most home runs of the

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Speaker 1: entire night at fifty. Tay Oscar finished with forty nine,

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Speaker 1: even though he won the whole thing. So the guy

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Speaker 1: who was the last pick in our draft was the

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Speaker 1: one who ended up winning it, and the guy who

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Speaker 1: was like the fifth best odds or something. I think

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Speaker 1: you said in Wit, which I really disagreed with. I

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Speaker 1: told you along with Gunner and Alonso, which neither of

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Speaker 1: which worked out. Wit was like in my clear top three,

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Speaker 1: so that I felt very good about your pick of

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Speaker 1: Alc Bohm. Well technically wrong, because you could have had tay Oscar,

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Speaker 1: which would have you know, really matter for you obviously

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Speaker 1: since he won it. All the kind of philosophy behind

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Speaker 1: picking Bomb worked out quite well for you.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it turned out to be maybe my only good pick.

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Speaker 3: He uh not me showed out in the first round,

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Speaker 3: and maybe he showed on the first round and uh

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Speaker 3: you know got to a swing off with the eventual

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Speaker 3: champ almost made it to the final.

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Speaker 2: And I think you.

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Speaker 3: Know, he had that long layoff in between his rounds,

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Speaker 3: and you know he heated up at the end of

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Speaker 3: his second round. If he didn't have that long layoff,

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Speaker 3: we might be talking about alt bums the tramp here.

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Speaker 1: I think the long layoff for Gunner between all the

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Speaker 1: like intro and warm ups and then he had to

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Speaker 1: go last, I think that did affect him. But like

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Speaker 1: every single pick you made was the wrong one. You

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Speaker 1: picked Gunner over Alonso. Alonso had one more home run,

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Speaker 1: you then picked the first.

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Speaker 3: Of Gunner will always be the right pick because of

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Speaker 3: why I picked him.

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Speaker 2: So for me, it's still a win.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the derby in terms of like

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Speaker 1: every two picks was a round my guy, and every

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Speaker 1: two picks did better than you picked Gunner over Alonso,

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Speaker 1: which I know you had your reasons for. Alonzo did better.

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Speaker 1: You picked Ozuna over wit Wit did way better. You

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Speaker 1: picked at a Lease over Jose Ramirez. Ramirez did better.

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Speaker 1: He picked Bom over t Oskar. Toy Oscar won the

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Speaker 1: whole damn thing. So a very successful home run derby

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Speaker 1: for me. We did add that to our score. So

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Speaker 1: we're gonna do the two start picture competition at the

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Speaker 1: end of the show. But the current standings, including that

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Speaker 1: home run derby win, is myself nine and you six,

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Speaker 1: so I am up by three. As we stand here

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Speaker 1: at the All star break, would you take about the

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Speaker 1: new format? Did you have any takeaways from that? With

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Speaker 1: the kind of you know, combination of timed and then

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Speaker 1: the untimed at the end of each.

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Speaker 3: Round, it felt a little sleepy, Like it just felt

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Speaker 3: a little sleepy to me, like it dragged on. It

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Speaker 3: felt like, which I know, like technically isn't true because

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Speaker 3: it used to kind of be longer. But for some reason,

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Speaker 3: maybe it's just me like feeling nostalgic about the way

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Speaker 3: things used to be in like old man yell at Cloud,

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Speaker 3: but it just it feels like it used to be

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Speaker 3: more exciting, whereas like this one was kind of like, eh,

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Speaker 3: they felt kind of sleepy. I almost preferred the head

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Speaker 3: to head matchups to like make a little bit more exciting.

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Speaker 3: The first round was kind of like it was interesting

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Speaker 3: in that, like everyone's competing against each other to get

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Speaker 3: like the most summ runs. But like, I don't know,

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Speaker 3: I kind of almost preferred the head to head format.

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Speaker 1: So I disagree on the head to head I would

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Speaker 1: actually just like I came away thinking, what all I

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Speaker 1: really want is I want all eight guys or maybe

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Speaker 1: you only say six if you're going to do it

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Speaker 1: the way I'm describing, But whatever the number is, I

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Speaker 1: just want them each to get two rounds and then

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Speaker 1: whoever is the most wins. Like I don't feel the

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Speaker 1: need to do this bracket style and to have like

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Speaker 1: the ultimate change. You're just everybody gets two rounds, you

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Speaker 1: know that way you kind of get your warm up

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Speaker 1: round and whatever. You get two full rounds and then

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Speaker 1: whoever is the most at the end. That's like the

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Speaker 1: true essence of a home run derby, right, It's not

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Speaker 1: head to head. It's not endurance. She said, who could

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Speaker 1: go out here hit the coolest, biggest bombs, And that's

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Speaker 1: just really what I want to see. I I don't

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Speaker 1: I still don't quite get why they have both the

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Speaker 1: forty pitch limit and the three minute limit, because both

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Speaker 1: of those are inherently limiting of like, hey, let's not

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Speaker 1: let this drag on forever. We're gonna make sure that

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Speaker 1: this is done in roughly three minutes. But I don't

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Speaker 1: understand why you have both, Like why not just say

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Speaker 1: you get forty pitches. That's still limiting. It's not gonna

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Speaker 1: let it drag on because you only get forty pitches,

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Speaker 1: and that way everybody at least gets all forty pitches.

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Speaker 1: Because there was a couple guys who didn't be like

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Speaker 1: they went too slowly and so they didn't get like

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Speaker 1: two extra chances, And I was like, why what value

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Speaker 1: is that adding to have a clock when you're already

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Speaker 1: limiting the number of pitches, So that that seemed weird

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Speaker 1: to me. I didn't I didn't get it beforehand, I

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Speaker 1: didn't get it during the moment, and I didn't like it.

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Speaker 1: And also everybody talked about how like this changes so

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Speaker 1: we could kind of get back to actually enjoying the

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Speaker 1: home runs and taking it in, and that really wasn't

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Speaker 1: That didn't happen like I thought. The camera work was

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Speaker 1: actually really shoddy during this event. Like I don't know

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Speaker 1: how closely you were paying attention that, but I was

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Speaker 1: like really unimpressed with with ESPN and like they were missing.

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Speaker 1: There was like times where I forget who it was.

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Speaker 1: Somebody was on their like last swing and they would

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Speaker 1: just showed like Jose Ramirez his face in the dugout

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Speaker 1: watching the swing. I'm like, show me the blasts. This

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Speaker 1: is the whole point of the event is to see

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Speaker 1: baseball's best home run hitters hit the ball a million

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Speaker 1: miles and you're showing like there was one of them.

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Speaker 1: They showed like the picture his face on the swing,

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Speaker 1: like you didn't even see the like what are we

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Speaker 1: doing here? Like, and they had those really cool angles

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Speaker 1: where it was like kind of off to the side

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Speaker 1: and from the ground and so you could see the

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Speaker 1: actual trajectory of the but it was like the perfect shot,

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Speaker 1: and then they would go away from it, and I

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Speaker 1: was like, I thought it was bad. I thought it

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Speaker 1: you know, I wish Chris Berman was back with the back, back,

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Speaker 1: back back. I you know, I just I was. I

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Speaker 1: still like the event. It's my favorite part of All

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Speaker 1: Star Weekend, you know, the All Star break, But I

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Speaker 1: I was unimpressed with the rules changes.

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Speaker 3: Dare you suggest that baseball doesn't know how to market itself?

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Speaker 3: Clearly they've shown they know what they're doing it.

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Speaker 1: It was really bad and I'm not even going to

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Speaker 1: get into the national anthem, which obviously, whatever her name was,

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Speaker 1: I had not heard of the artist before, so sorry,

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Speaker 1: I don't remember her name, came out and said that

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Speaker 1: she was, you know, really inebriated during that and she's

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Speaker 1: checking herself in the rehab. There was some speculation online

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Speaker 1: that like that was all kind of a you know,

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Speaker 1: marketing ploy, So I'm not going to speculate on that.

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Speaker 1: I'll give her the benefit of the doubt and trust

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Speaker 1: that she's opening up and being vulnerable about an addiction

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Speaker 1: and is going to get help. So I wish her

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Speaker 1: the best if that's true. In the moment, it was

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Speaker 1: wild to experience that it was. I mean, it was

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Speaker 1: truly an all timer. So if you know, assuming again

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Speaker 1: giving her the benefit of doubt, I have no reason

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Speaker 1: to assume otherwise than you know. Obviously I hope for

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Speaker 1: the best for her and her recovery steps. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: that was quite a way to start things off. Sure

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Speaker 1: was all right, let's get into the biggest first half

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Speaker 1: prizes of the season, and you got to the sheet first,

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Speaker 1: and I wanted to pick somebody different from you as

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Speaker 1: much as I could, but I really couldn't feel like

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Speaker 1: I justified it, so I included some monerable mentions. But

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Speaker 1: your pick, which is the same one that I'm going

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Speaker 1: to agree with, is Renew Blanco.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's the most obvious one.

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Speaker 3: And it's kind of funny that it turned out to

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Speaker 3: be the most obvious one because I was kind of

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Speaker 3: I went to our site and was looking at the

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Speaker 3: stats page and I was just I kind of left

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Speaker 3: it sorted by VBR so you can just see who

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Speaker 3: has been like the most viable hitters, the most viable pictures,

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Speaker 3: And I went to the hitters and I kind of

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Speaker 3: couldn't decide on anyone. And then I went to the

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Speaker 3: pictures and I'm literally like staring at the top of

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Speaker 3: the list and just like going back and forth, like

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Speaker 3: over his name, and I'm like, man, like, who am

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Speaker 3: I going to pick? And then like I just happened

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Speaker 3: to look at it, and I was like, why do

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Speaker 3: I keep skipping over Renew Blanco's name when he's by

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Speaker 3: far the biggest surprise, Like the guy through a no hitter.

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Speaker 3: We've been waiting for him for months to fall apart,

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Speaker 3: and he just hasn't. Like he's he's like clearly the

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Speaker 3: consensus biggest surprise of the first half in my opinion.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very similar what you're describing to when I

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Speaker 1: was picking where to move when I first moved out

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Speaker 1: to Denver a couple of years ago, I realized at

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Speaker 1: some point that every city I was considering, I was

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Speaker 1: comparing in my head to, Okay, well is it better

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Speaker 1: than Denver or not? And so ultimately I was like,

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Speaker 1: why don't I just go to Denver because that's clearly

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Speaker 1: where I'm like planning to. It's where I'm comparing everything

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Speaker 1: else to. Anyway, same thing with what you just described

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Speaker 1: as Blanca, it's like he's just like the clear one

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Speaker 1: and there's no reason to overthink it to every point

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Speaker 1: you said, I mean like obviously like no expectations really whatsoever,

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Speaker 1: and then started off right away with a bang with

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Speaker 1: a no hitter, and like has really outside of that,

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Speaker 1: like suspension, and like he had a couple down starts

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Speaker 1: immediately following that. I actually did drop him in a

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Speaker 1: league that I'm regretting doing that. It's those smaller, you know,

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Speaker 1: bench sizes, and I really felt like I needed the spot,

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Speaker 1: and it was immediately after. He had a couple of

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Speaker 1: bad starts after the suspension, and I was like, well,

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Speaker 1: maybe like it was he was getting some you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of illegal benefit here. But I mean he's bounced

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Speaker 1: back nicely from that. He's very clearly the best surprise.

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Speaker 1: I did throw down a couple of honorable mentions. I

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Speaker 1: want to get your opinion on Chris Sale. I was

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Speaker 1: kind of leaving him for dead after you know, barely

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Speaker 1: pitching for a few years and then, you know, not

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Speaker 1: the best year last year. Seth Lugo has been really

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Speaker 1: consistent this year, really impressive in a way. I certainly

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Speaker 1: did not expect Stephen Kwan, like I was, you know,

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Speaker 1: a decent player, not somebody that came out of nowhere,

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Speaker 1: but has been so good, like very surprising power relative

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Speaker 1: to what he's done in his career. His batting average,

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Speaker 1: you know, is obviously you know, higher than it's been

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Speaker 1: for him before, because it's higher than just about everybody

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Speaker 1: this year. Louis Hill, who we've talked a lot about

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Speaker 1: with the innings limit, stuff coming up in the second half.

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Speaker 1: But I mean he kept the Yankees' rotation afloat for

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Speaker 1: two or three months there without Garrett Cole, Brent Rooker.

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Speaker 1: I wrote his name down like he was he had

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Speaker 1: thirty home runs last year, but like his batting average

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Speaker 1: is up fifty points this year. He's on pace for

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Speaker 1: you know, closer to forty home runs this year. He's

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Speaker 1: just and better than I expected than Ranger Suarez. Best

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Speaker 1: picture in baseball, as we've talked about a lot on

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Speaker 1: this show.

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Speaker 2: Like surprising at all.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I certainly didn't expect him to be at

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Speaker 1: the top of a lot of those you know MLB

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Speaker 1: social graphics of you know, picture power rankings. Ranger Suarez,

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Speaker 1: I didn't have that one on my bingo cards. So

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Speaker 1: any of those names stand out to you that you

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Speaker 1: agree with or disagree with.

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Speaker 3: A bunch of them are names I was kind of

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Speaker 3: skipping over, and like you said, I was comparing them

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Speaker 3: to Denver, I was comparing them to Rene Blanco. Seth

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Speaker 3: Lugo is a name that I think I almost picked

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Speaker 3: just because of how high he is on the Fantasy

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Speaker 3: Pros Baseball stats page on VBR. He's the fourth best

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Speaker 3: pitcher in fantasy right now Seth Lugo, which is which

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Speaker 3: is wild. We have seen him kind of flash in

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Speaker 3: the past. He's an older pitcher, he's thirty four, but

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Speaker 3: we've seen him previously in his career kind of do

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Speaker 3: things like this, but like more so out of the

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Speaker 3: bullpen as opposed to like now he's like finally getting

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Speaker 3: a chance to be a full time starter. He had

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Speaker 3: a solid year last year, not like otherworldly, but like

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Speaker 3: very good, very very above cromulent. He's more than cromulent.

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Speaker 2: And then this year he's.

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Speaker 3: Just fantastic and a lot of his expected number, like

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Speaker 3: he's he's been like the biggest like candidate for like

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Speaker 3: regression or like negative regression with this, which the stat

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Speaker 3: nerds hate that you say, but negative regression just because

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Speaker 3: like if you look at like statcast and Fangrafts and

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Speaker 3: all the other expecting like all his expected numbers, they're

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Speaker 3: all much worse and so like we're we're expecting regression.

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Speaker 3: But it's hard to deny the first half that he

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Speaker 3: just had and you know, he's continuing to pitch well,

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Speaker 3: and it's hard to argue with the fourth, you know,

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Speaker 3: most valuable pitcher in baseball that was probably free come

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Speaker 3: draft day, or if not free.

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Speaker 2: Very cheap.

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Speaker 1: Stat Nerds are correct. You can just say regression. You

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Speaker 1: don't need to say negative regression.

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Speaker 3: You want to drive it home though with like, look,

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Speaker 3: I mean negative regression. I want it to feel bad,

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Speaker 3: able to feel bad.

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Speaker 1: About this, really put emphasis on it. Okay, let's go

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Speaker 1: to our biggest first half disappointments. And you also picked

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Speaker 1: I think probably the most correct answer. We both have

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Speaker 1: first round outfielders though as our picks, so I'll go

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Speaker 1: first this time. I went with Julio Rodriguez, as you

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Speaker 1: already picked your guy. I think some of the underlying data,

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Speaker 1: like there's some optimism for the second half. He was

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Speaker 1: like abysmal abysmal early and like pseudo bounce back a bit,

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Speaker 1: but you know, he does still have ten home runs,

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Speaker 1: eighteen stolen bases, the ops is under seven hundred. It's

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Speaker 1: I mean, he was going like second overall in some drafts,

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Speaker 1: like I mean, there was outside of Acuna, like there

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Speaker 1: was about as much excitement for Julio's season as there

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Speaker 1: was for any player in baseball, and he just has

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Speaker 1: not lived up to that. He has not lived up

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Speaker 1: to the player that he was. You know, last year

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Speaker 1: he was thirty thirty. He's just has has been in

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Speaker 1: real step down, particularly in the power department. So that

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Speaker 1: OPS of six ninety is just a real eyesore for

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Speaker 1: a guy that in salary cap drafts you probably spent

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Speaker 1: as much as anybody was spent on again besides the

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Speaker 1: CUNA this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. And did you you're gonna mention your

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Speaker 2: honorable mentions there before I.

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Speaker 1: Go, Yeah, my honorable mentions Matt Olson and Austin Riley.

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Speaker 1: You know Olsen somebody we've talked about on the show

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Speaker 1: for a while in terms of so that we think

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Speaker 1: could positively regress. I'm saying with a smile because I

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Speaker 1: know you can just say regress and hasn't quite happened yet.

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Speaker 1: You know, just thirteen home runs this season, had fifty

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Speaker 1: four last year. He's only hitting two twenty nine hit

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Speaker 1: too eighty three last year. The OPS is seven fourteen

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Speaker 1: like last year was nearly a thousand. It's been a

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Speaker 1: real step down in a lot of ways, in every

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Speaker 1: way really, and and yeah, I mean I'm still somewhat

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Speaker 1: optimistic of what he can do in the second half.

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Speaker 1: But if we're just strictly looking at what has happened

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Speaker 1: in the first half, like hard to argue against him

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Speaker 1: as a major disappointment, and so more with Austin Riley.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he hit thirty plus homers each of the

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Speaker 1: last three years. He's only got twelve so far in

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Speaker 1: eighty two games this year. And this is somebody that

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Speaker 1: you were taking like mid second round, late second round.

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Speaker 1: Then you know, step down and batting average stepped down again,

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Speaker 1: really across the board. He's under forty RBI this season.

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Speaker 1: I meant, you know, here at the All Star break,

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Speaker 1: he's just been a bad year. So those were two

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Speaker 1: honorable mentions, but I think the correct answer is probably

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Speaker 1: your guy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a guy we've talked about a bunch, just

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Speaker 3: Corbyn Carroll, just an atrocious year after after what he

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Speaker 3: did last year and all the high expectations that we

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Speaker 3: had for him. I have a ton of exposure to

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Speaker 3: pretty much all four of these players, including we talked

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Speaker 3: about earlier in the year. I traded Corbyn Carroll for

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Speaker 3: Matt Elsons as a Bilo for BI low swap kind

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Speaker 3: of a thing, just like you know, I wanted out

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Speaker 3: of the Corbyn Carroll business. I was very concerned about

434
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,720
Speaker 3: his shoulder, and I figured matt Elson would would bounce

435
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 3: back with a little bit more power.

436
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,159
Speaker 2: He's somewhat bounced back a little bit.

437
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:52,680
Speaker 3: But like as you were talking, you may have looked

438
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 3: in the sheet and seen me adding numbers next to

439
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:59,479
Speaker 3: all these guys' names. And what I found was I

440
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 3: was just going going looking at the Fantasy Pros Baseball

441
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 3: s tat page and looking at their VBR, Like who's

442
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 3: been the most valuable of these guys.

443
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:07,639
Speaker 2: In fantasy this year?

444
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 3: Julio Rodriguez surprisingly forty third, not great considering where you

445
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,159
Speaker 3: probably drafted him. You know where you drafted him, so

446
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,760
Speaker 3: that's not a great return on investment. But Corbick I

447
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 3: was surprised to see that Corban Carroll is ninety nine,

448
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 3: probably being propped up a lot by those stolen bases.

449
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 3: Maddilson is one thirty eight. He's the worst of the four,

450
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 3: which I was surprised that he was worse than Corbyn Carroll.

451
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:30,680
Speaker 3: And then Austin Riley is of one oh five, right

452
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 3: near Corbyn Carroll. But so far, just grading the trade

453
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 3: of Mike Corbyn Carrell for Maddlson swap, I've technically gotten

454
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:38,359
Speaker 3: the worst side of that.

455
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I mean Julio being that high. I

456
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 1: think that's just a lot of like he has double

457
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 1: digit to home runs and almost twenty steals at the

458
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 1: halfway or you know, a little beyond the halfway mark.

459
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,440
Speaker 1: But with him, it's more of the downtimes have been

460
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,639
Speaker 1: really down and the fact that you've had to spend

461
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 1: so much draft capital to get him. But that's interesting

462
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 1: to note. I knew who you know, I knew he

463
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: had been better than you know, Carol and Olson and Riley.

464
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 1: I didn't realize he had been considered a top fifty player,

465
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,239
Speaker 1: though actually I don't. I don't actually roster a lot

466
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 1: of Julio, so I more follow him from just a

467
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,879
Speaker 1: you know, professional standpoint, rather than like paying attention so

468
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,119
Speaker 1: closely to like my teams and the rankings and stuff.

469
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,880
Speaker 1: But so that is interesting. But yeah, like I said,

470
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: I think Carol's probably the correct pick. There so less consensus,

471
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 1: I think then on the surprise where we both just

472
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 1: very easily agree on Blanco. But I think Carol is

473
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 1: certainly a standout. Did you have any honorable mentions yourself

474
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 1: or I did not.

475
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:37,959
Speaker 2: I didn't put any honorable mentions in there.

476
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 3: I was just looking at the list though, and I

477
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 3: thought it was funny that Julio Rodriguez is sandwiched by

478
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 3: two Orioles, Anthony Santander and then Jordan Westburg.

479
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 1: Interesting two guys who were not drafted in the first

480
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:49,880
Speaker 1: round Fantasy.

481
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 2: Nor was Carlos Korea forty fifth overall? Yeah, which is

482
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 2: also surprising that he's forty fifth. Is he bad? Is

483
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 2: he really batting three to zero eight Carlos Coorea?

484
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 1: Yeah? I discovered that like a week or two ago,

485
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 1: and I was like, did a double take. I was like,

486
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: chare is having that good of a year, you know,

487
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: batting over three hundred. All right, let's go to our

488
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 1: bold predictions for the second half. We'll start at picture

489
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 1: and I will start with the guy that everybody just

490
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,159
Speaker 1: watched in the All Star Game, Paul Skins, and I

491
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 1: actually wrote about this. We have an article on the

492
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: site with sixteen bold Fantasy Baseball predictions for the second half.

493
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 1: We got, you know, contributions there from myself, from you,

494
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 1: from Kelly, from Joey p from Welsh and from a

495
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 1: bunch of folks from outside, you know, the Fantasy Pros Company,

496
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: and my pitcher was Paul Skeens, and I said this

497
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 1: in the write up, where it's starting to feel less

498
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 1: bold by the week, every single start. This makes me

499
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,880
Speaker 1: look like I'm going less out on a limb. And obviously,

500
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 1: the guy just started the All Star Game as a rookie.

501
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: I think he's going to finish the second half as

502
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 1: the consensus sp one in fantasy. That is not saying

503
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: he's going to be a top ten guy, not me saying, oh,

504
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 1: when we had that conversation two weeks ago, he should

505
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 1: have been in the elite Tier one guy. I mentioned

506
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 1: him as a possibility of maybe elevating that. I'm saying

507
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 1: he will be the inarguable best pitcher in fantasy baseball,

508
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: and yet he will be a top five pick in

509
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five drafts. What do you think about that?

510
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:18,400
Speaker 1: How's that for bold or is it not that bold

511
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:19,479
Speaker 1: because Skeins is awesome.

512
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 2: I think it's like a it's a mix.

513
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 3: Like it's bold in that we're all looking at the

514
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 3: same thing right the innings. It's not bold in the

515
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 3: sense that, like a lot of people aren't going to

516
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 3: disagree that he looks like maybe he's the best. You know,

517
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 3: he just started the All Star Game. It wasn't by accident.

518
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 3: Everyone else thinks he's really good too. It's just so

519
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 3: that the Pirates aren't good and we're all worried about

520
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 3: those innings.

521
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 1: They're good also, so it's not like it's the White

522
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 1: Sox where it's like, oh, he will literally never get

523
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 1: any wins. Like the Pirates aren't good. It'd be nicer

524
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 1: if he was on like the Orioles or the Dodgers

525
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,679
Speaker 1: or whoever. But like, I like, they're good enough that

526
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 1: if he is throwing seven no hit innings, he'll get

527
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 1: enough wins. I know.

528
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: It also just concerns me that he's just up there

529
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 3: throwing a hundred, which you know, we always see what

530
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 3: happens to those guys and want to say about that.

531
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 1: Any picture prediction is always going to have that caveat right,

532
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 1: there's no picture that you can really talk about that

533
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: there isn't the at least in the back of your

534
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 1: mind concerns. So you kind of have to make the

535
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 1: prediction assuming full health, and again assuming full like, I

536
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 1: just don't know what evidence there is from the last

537
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 1: two years of Paul Skeins' life and career that would

538
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: suggest he's anything other than the best picture on the planet.

539
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I won't disagree with you there. I got nothing

540
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 3: else to reply to that.

541
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 1: Well, who's your guy?

542
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 2: You didn't ask me.

543
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 1: You're the host, this is the team up, the team effort.

544
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,919
Speaker 1: You're allowed to jump in if the you know, you

545
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: feel the conversation, the volition of the conversation is moving forward.

546
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 2: So maybe you had more there. All right, I'll go, well.

547
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 1: I know, I don't. I don't. I don't think there's

548
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 1: anything more to say, because to your point, it's really

549
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: just the innings and there's nothing else about it. And

550
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 1: I'm my bold predictions that the innings aren't going to matter.

551
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 1: And like I said, he's going to be I think

552
00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: he's going to go. He's gonna be drafted in next

553
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 1: year's draft, ahead of everybody other than like, you know,

554
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 1: the if he's healthy, like Muki Akunya types, you know,

555
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: Bobby Witt like that, elite elite. Elite elite are the

556
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 1: only hitters that are going to go ahead of it,

557
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: might think.

558
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, So for me, for both of my bold predictions,

559
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: I tried to kind of make multiple predictions for each

560
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 3: player just to make sure it was bold enough. Because

561
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 3: I wasn't sure if my take would be bold enough

562
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 3: on its own. And so this one, my picture one

563
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 3: is that Pablo Lopez is going to be an SP

564
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 3: one for Fantasy in the second half, and he's going

565
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 3: to finish in the top five in al SI young

566
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 3: Ward voting.

567
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: I think I think the cy Young inclusion is key.

568
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 1: I don't think it was bold enough without it. I

569
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 1: think it is with it.

570
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you for missing missing the right word here,

571
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,719
Speaker 3: but thank you for agreeing with my process of of

572
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 3: why I would do that. And so there's gonna be

573
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 3: a lot of theme or a main theme, and pretty

574
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 3: much like every player I talk about in this episode,

575
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 3: and I'm going to keep coming back to VBR and

576
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 3: just because of this time of the year, we're at

577
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 3: the All Star break, it's a good time to like

578
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 3: kind of look at player value. And so I spent

579
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 3: a lot of time in my research for the episode

580
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 3: looking at VPR and looking at the value, and that's

581
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 3: kind of how I came about some of these bold predictions.

582
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,959
Speaker 3: And so in terms of pictures right now, according to

583
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 3: pannies Ros of VPR, he's SP seventy four, so he's

584
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 3: not good at least overall, the.

585
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 2: Aire is north of five.

586
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 3: Now, he has been a popular by low candidate for

587
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 3: a lot of people, especially me. Throughout the first half,

588
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 3: we've seen the flashes of what he can be expect.

589
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 3: The numbers are all significantly better. And then I found

590
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 3: some interesting things as I was going through and looking

591
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 3: at his Cy Young odds because I went to the

592
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 3: betting pros consensus ods because that's where you can go

593
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: and see like the best odds, and you can see

594
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 3: which book has which odds, and I found some interesting

595
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,119
Speaker 3: things because you can currently put in an al Cy

596
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 3: Young ticket for him at plus twenty thousand, which I thought, like,

597
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 3: I don't think he's going to win the SOI Young,

598
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 3: but plus twenty thousand, it's pretty absurd number for someone

599
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 3: like Papa Lopez who has that ceiling and on a

600
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 3: bunch of books. He's out of the top twenty five

601
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 3: in terms of like picture rankings for the odds. But

602
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 3: if you go to Caesars, they have him down to

603
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 3: plus fifty five hundred, so like nowhere close to plenty

604
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 3: to plus twenty thousand, and they have him as eleven.

605
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 3: So like in my in my you know, my theory

606
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 3: is that they're looking at the same things we're looking at,

607
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 3: Like all of his expected numbers are better, the strikeouts

608
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:16,719
Speaker 3: are there, He's on a good team that can make

609
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 3: a really good push in the second half, and.

610
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 2: He can really climb those rankings.

611
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 3: You know, all he needs is like one good month

612
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 3: and he's top five, Like he's not that far off

613
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 3: because of all his other numbers, and so I just

614
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 3: think he has that in him. He's going to have

615
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 3: a strong second half. I think he's going to be

616
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 3: an SP one for people. You know, he's SP seventy

617
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 3: four right now, nowhere close to an SP one, but

618
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a top twelve pitcher. And

619
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 3: I think, you know, he's going to make a push

620
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 3: and be you know, if he has like two good months,

621
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 3: he's right there in the cy Young you know, you know,

622
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 3: and you don't want to like root for injuries, but

623
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 3: like he's gonna one or two injuries away from like

624
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 3: being like maybe top three.

625
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 2: For that cy Young word.

626
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, like I said, adding that cy Young

627
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 1: element makes that a pretty good bold prediction. Let's go

628
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 1: to our bold hitter pretty for the second half. I'll

629
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 1: let you go first this time.

630
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 2: Let's see.

631
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 3: So my bold hitter prediction is someone that we just

632
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 3: saw win MVP for the All Star Game. It's Jaron

633
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 3: Duran and I made multiple predictions for him. And let

634
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 3: me scroll up to what I wrote. I wrote it

635
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 3: in the sheet too, but I went to the article

636
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 3: I didn't scroll far enough. We're gonna hear me scroll

637
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 3: in real time here. Okay, So my bold prediction is

638
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 3: that Daron Durant is a top five Fantasy player player

639
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 3: in Fantasy, becomes a consensus first round pick heading into

640
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five, and really bold gets at least one

641
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 3: al MVP vote. So all I need is one red

642
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 3: sox Homer to vote for him for al MVP. Now

643
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 3: I think that again, you don't want to root for

644
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 3: any injuries, but I think he's going to need some

645
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 3: injuries in order to get that vote. But I was

646
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: interested again coming back to VBR, do you where would

647
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 3: you guess his value? If you haven't looked at the list,

648
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 3: where would guess Jaron Durant's value is right now in

649
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 3: VBR in terms of hitters, his overall value first half Fantasy.

650
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 1: That's a really good question, I think, like just as

651
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: a fan, like I would probably guess maybe in like

652
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: the twenties or thirties, I know he's been really really good,

653
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: but like I think he's been better. I think then

654
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: maybe the average fan.

655
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 3: Realizes twelve, he's the top twelve, so he's, you know,

656
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 3: technically a first round pick, you first round value as

657
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 3: somebod who's returned first round value.

658
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 2: And the other thing I found.

659
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: But by the way, just to be clear, I knew

660
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: he was in the top fifteen. I'm like trying to

661
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 1: put myself in the mindset of if I hadn't kind

662
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: of looked at everything already.

663
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, the other interesting thing that I noticed while

664
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 3: looking at it in terms of VBR and like how

665
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 3: it's calculated and how home runs can kind of impact

666
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 3: you know, your runs and your RBIs you know, pretty

667
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 3: much three of the five main categories. And there are

668
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 3: only two players in the top thirty five that have

669
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 3: eleven or fewer home runs or ten or fewer home runs.

670
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 3: So Jaron Duran has ten. Only one other player, Bryce Terrang,

671
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 3: who is twenty fourth overall, is he's the only other

672
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 3: player with fewer than ten home runs in the top

673
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 3: thirty five in terms of VBR and so that tells

674
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,239
Speaker 3: me all he really needs is like a little bit

675
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 3: more power, which I've seen him have. I think playing

676
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 3: and I wrote this in the article too, I think

677
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 3: playing his home games at Fenway Park kind of zaps

678
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 3: some of his power because they have that deep right

679
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 3: field unless you pull it right down the line, Like

680
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 3: a lot of people don't realize straight away right field

681
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 3: and Fenway is three to eighty, like it's basically a

682
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 3: center field in some ballparks unless you pull it right

683
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 3: down the line. But I still think he can hit

684
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 3: another ten home runs. He already has what does he

685
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 3: have twenty two stolen bases, so he and he is

686
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 3: going to have a solid batting average. He's not far

687
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 3: away from like a twenty fifty season, batting two eighty,

688
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 3: scoring one hundred runs, driving in seventy five runs. That's

689
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 3: a really valuable season. And like the thing is, we've

690
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 3: seen him show this ceiling before. He either he's either

691
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 3: dealt with injuries or he's kind of been inconsistent. But

692
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 3: I think what we're seeing now is the breakout. And

693
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 3: you saw that in the All Star Game. You saw

694
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 3: the home running hit, and I just think we might

695
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 3: be looking at the first round talent going forward.

696
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 1: There's no way he gets in an al MVP vote

697
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:22,479
Speaker 1: like a first place no chance, no chance, I mean

698
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 1: between Judge and Gunner and Sodo and Wit, like there's

699
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: no chance.

700
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 2: Well it doesn't say first place vote, just as.

701
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: Vote okay, okay, like a down ballot.

702
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, when they vote like top three or something like that,

703
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 3: I think you can get a third place vote.

704
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: Guest five, I actually don't know off the top of

705
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: my head. So that's a good question. We should probably

706
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 1: know that. But if it's five, then I could see it.

707
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 1: Three I think is even still kind of a stretch honestly,

708
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 1: with like Judge and Gunner. Sure feels like one and

709
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 1: two and like Soto just with the Yankees factor two,

710
00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: like unless Sodo and Judge somehow split votes from each other,

711
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: which I don't see happening. Like I think I think

712
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: those in WIT are your top four like on every ballot,

713
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: or at least they should be.

714
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 2: But yeah, I was saying just a vote, not a

715
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 2: first place votus.

716
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: Yes, that's fine. That's that's more, you know, understandable. My

717
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 1: bullet hitter prediction is for Jackson Churio. Uh. He did

718
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 1: take a step forward in June after like a really

719
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: terrible start to the season. He had a pretty bad

720
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: start to the year last year in the minors if

721
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: I remember correctly. So it's not like totally unheard of

722
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: for him to kind of start slow and then bounce

723
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 1: back into the summer. You know, his triple slash line

724
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: is two forty three to ninety four three eighty four.

725
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,479
Speaker 1: He's at exactly three under plate appearances. He's got nine

726
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 1: home runs of ten stolen bases. Though. Uh. And really,

727
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: my point that I write here in the blurb and

728
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: that I you know, feel now, is just like, it's

729
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: less about, oh, this underlying data suggests he's due for breakout.

730
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: It's more just like I think the prospect pedigree is

731
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 1: just too darn good, the raw talent is too darn special.

732
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna struggle very long. He's already,

733
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: like I said, starting to bounce back. I think that

734
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 1: we're in the middle of an adjustment already, and we're

735
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 1: going to see another leap into the second half. I

736
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: think he elevates into must start outfielder status in every

737
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 1: league format, even if it's only three outfielders whatever. I

738
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 1: think he's gonna be a must start outfielder, and I

739
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 1: think he's gonna finish close to He's not gonna get

740
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: but close to a twenty twenty a twenty five twenty

741
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: five season with an average north of two seventy five,

742
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 1: and where he is right now, that is not going

743
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 1: to be easy to get to. But I think he

744
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: is that strong of a second half to bounce back again.

745
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: That's more based on pedigree and the signs of life

746
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: we're starting to see and an attempt to be bold

747
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: than it is on oh well, the stat cast data

748
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: says x y or Z, it's not that. It's more

749
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: a belief in the player and the talent and kind

750
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: of the signs of life we're seeing. What do you

751
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 1: think about Cherio.

752
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 2: I've always liked Cheerio. I like to pick.

753
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 3: I think his second half is going to be really

754
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 3: interesting in the sense of how he's valued going into

755
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 3: next season, because I think if he has another like

756
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 3: somewhat mediocre half, he's going to be really a really

757
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 3: interesting evaluation heading in the next year, Like people are

758
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 3: going to try to, you know, see like is he

759
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 3: going to take another step forward next year? We didn't

760
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 3: see it all year, but now he has a year

761
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 3: under his belt. I think you're gonna see a lot

762
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 3: of different opinions heading in the next year. And if

763
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 3: he takes the next step forward, now he's gonna start

764
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 3: rising up draft boards because now people are going to say, like, oh,

765
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 3: like he turned things around the second half.

766
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 2: Now they're going to extrapolate the stats.

767
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: We're gonna get a full season of those stats, and

768
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 3: now he's going to start getting bumped up in the

769
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 3: earlier rounds.

770
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: I'm also like, so I have him in a keeper

771
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 1: league where you can only you keep minor leaguers too,

772
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: but you can only keep ten major league players, and

773
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: it's at costs, And so I have him for one

774
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 1: dollar because I got it in on him as a

775
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 1: prospect very early, and I have thought forever that this

776
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 1: is just gonna be. I also have Bobby Wit for

777
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 1: very cheap in that league. I'm like the like, he's

778
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: my next Bobby Wit. Like he's just gonna be this

779
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 1: elite prospect who's great for fantasy that I'm going to

780
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 1: have on my roster for his entire career. My team

781
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 1: is very, very good. I'm the best team in this league,

782
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 1: and well, I mean it's it's the only league I

783
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 1: can say that about, so I'm gonna say it about it.

784
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: My team is really loaded. And I'm like, if he

785
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 1: has the second half that resembles the April and May

786
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 1: of his first half, if this June, you know, stretch

787
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 1: looks like more of a mirage and it's not even

788
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: like he was lighting the world on fire. He was

789
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 1: just better than he have been. If that looks like

790
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: the outlier by the end of the season, I wonder

791
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 1: if maybe I do have to consider I just have

792
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 1: too many other good players. I think I think the

793
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 1: value is too strong and the pure upside is too strong,

794
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: and that's basically how I felt all year. But I

795
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 1: think I bring that up to say, I think you're right.

796
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 1: The second half will go a long way towards shaping

797
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: how people want to build a narrative around him for

798
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 1: next season. And I think, barring something like spectacular, like

799
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 1: he just becomes the next incarnation of Ronald Acuna and

800
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: everybody's in agreement and it's and it's obvious, barring something

801
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,399
Speaker 1: like that, I think he'll be one of the more

802
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 1: fun players to debate next spring. And like when we

803
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 1: do our mock drafts, you know, when Joey p and

804
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 1: Welsh are doing their mock drafts. We'll be seeing like

805
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,919
Speaker 1: whoever takes Cheerio, like, we'll get comments and it will

806
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:58,879
Speaker 1: be a pick that is analyzed next year. So I'm

807
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: really curious to see what he does the rest of

808
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 1: the season. Love love, love the talent. Let's go to

809
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 1: our bold team prediction for the second half. Mine I

810
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:08,919
Speaker 1: put that the Orioles will finish with the best record

811
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 1: in baseball. I don't think this is actually like like

812
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: I wrote, if it's not bold enough, I have a

813
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: backup option. I do think it's bolder than people might

814
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 1: give it credit for. Like I know, they just you know,

815
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:21,879
Speaker 1: had the best record in the American League last year,

816
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 1: but they like have lost Kyle Bradish like which is

817
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 1: not nothing, and their starting pitchers beyond Corbyn Burds and

818
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 1: Grays Dendriguez have really like kind of taken a step back,

819
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 1: and the bullpen is in kind of the higher shape,

820
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 1: like outside of Kimberrell, who still is blowing one run

821
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:43,720
Speaker 1: saves you know on occasion. The hitters were awful last week,

822
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 1: like they had one of their worst week in a

823
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: couple of years against the Cubs and the Yankees just

824
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 1: this past week going into the Alsto break. They really

825
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 1: needed the break. Things aren't as like peachy, all sunshine

826
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 1: and Roses in Baltimore as you might expect from the

827
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 1: way I like to talk about them, and just from

828
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: kind of the narrative around a fun young team rebuild,

829
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 1: come to fruition one of the best teams in baseball. Like,

830
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: there's maybe some cracks in the foundation. I do think

831
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 1: they addressed pitching at the trade deadline, which will go

832
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 1: a long way. I think they bounce back. I think

833
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 1: they hold off the Yankees, the Surgeon Red Sox. I

834
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: think they surpassed the Phillies, the Guardians. I think they

835
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 1: finished with the best record in baseball. And if you

836
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 1: think that's not bold enough or that it's too much

837
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:28,399
Speaker 1: of a homer pick by backup is that. I think

838
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say the Rangers make the playoffs. They're not

839
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,240
Speaker 1: positioned to do so right now. Obviously under five hundred,

840
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: there's a lot of teams they have to jump to

841
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 1: get there. But this is still the defending World Series champs.

842
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 1: Great manager, a lot of talent on this team. You know,

843
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,920
Speaker 1: guys getting better, like White, Langford, figuring it out. You know,

844
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: pitchers starting to come back healthy, stuff.

845
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 2: Like that, So to Grama is coming back.

846
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I am again I'm trying to be bold here.

847
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 1: So I'm going to say that they pass all those

848
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 1: teams to make the playoffs. But my main one is

849
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 1: Orioles with the best record in baseball. Do you think

850
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 1: that's too it's not bold enough or too much of

851
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 1: a homer pick? Is that an acceptable one?

852
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 3: Well, it's definitely a homer pick. So I'm gonna always

853
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 3: call that out. I think it's it's not that bold,

854
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 3: but it's also like it's not you know, it's it's

855
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 3: significantly bold in the sense that like you're not like saying, like, oh,

856
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 3: I think the Oils are going to better than the Yankees.

857
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 2: Like it's the Oriols versus the field.

858
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not saying they win the Al East.

859
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 1: I'm saying they have the best record of baseball.

860
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 3: That's not a gimme, and they're currently right around second.

861
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 3: The Phillies have the best record of baseball. Looks like

862
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 3: sixty two and thirty four.

863
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 1: Yeah.

864
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:34,959
Speaker 3: The other thing about that is like the aliast is good,

865
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:38,280
Speaker 3: Like the Blue Jays are going to sell they stink,

866
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,479
Speaker 3: but everyone else is five hundred or better, and three

867
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 3: of those teams are significantly above five hundred. Now we'll

868
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 3: see if the Red Sox ownership decides to actually buy

869
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 3: at the deadline or if they just pull a high

870
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 3: and bloom and sell. Despite being ten games over five hundred,

871
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 3: but eleven games over five hundred.

872
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 1: Prior to this last weekend, the Orioles hadn't lost the

873
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 1: series to an Aliast team in a long time. That's

874
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 1: got a long way towards their success. You know, winning

875
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 1: the division last year is the fact that they've been

876
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 1: able to keep all the other teams the Al East

877
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 1: at bay. I hope that the snapping of that streak

878
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:15,320
Speaker 1: doesn't kind of open those floodgates and they struggle against

879
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: their division opponents, and the second half we'll have to see.

880
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: Some would argue that your bold team prediction is also

881
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: a homer pick.

882
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 3: In a way, it is also it is also a

883
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 3: homer pick, but I also it was somewhat in reaction

884
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 3: to your pick because and it's somewhat I saw people

885
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 3: talking about this a couple of weeks ago whenever the

886
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 3: Red Sox played the Yankees, and it's why I made

887
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 3: a comment last week when you talked about, you know,

888
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 3: the best rosters in the Al East, and they were

889
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:49,319
Speaker 3: kind of like tongue in cheek talking about like, do

890
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 3: the Yankees really have a better roster top to bottom

891
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 3: than the Red Sox, And they were like, probably, but

892
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 3: if you look at the Yankees roster, it's extremely top

893
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 3: heavy and it's not as deep as you think so

894
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 3: And again you don't want to like root for injuries

895
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,439
Speaker 3: or really talk about injuries in that way, but they're

896
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 3: one significant injury away from not being a good team anymore.

897
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 2: Like even just.

898
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 3: Like looking at their I pulled up roster resource and

899
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 3: just looking at their lineup. They have Ben Rice, who's

900
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 3: like a great story starting at first base right now,

901
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 3: but who knows if that's If that sticks, then they

902
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 3: have Soto and Judge. Then it's Alex Perdugo, whatever is

903
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:27,720
Speaker 3: left of Glabor Torres, Austin Wells, Anthony Volpi, overrated, Trent Grishram,

904
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 3: and DJ Lemayhew.

905
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 2: That's not a good lineup.

906
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: Dude, the good line The conversations that went on in

907
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:38,440
Speaker 1: like May about like who would you rather have Gunner Henderson,

908
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 1: Bobby Wit Junior or Anthony Volpi I'm like, what that's

909
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 1: the meme of the two scary dragonheads and then the

910
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 1: one dufis looking one like Vulpi doesn't even belong in

911
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 1: the same stratosphere as the conversation between Gunner and Witt,

912
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 1: Like Gunner and Witt are like if you're building a

913
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 1: franchise tomorrow, like those are top five picks. Volpi is

914
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 1: not in the top twenty five.

915
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 3: No, And then and then they're pitching. They have, you know,

916
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 3: on the surface, they have good pitching staff. They have

917
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 3: Garrett Cole, but there's injury concerns there. And he also

918
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 3: hasn't looked exactly like Grek Cole since he came back.

919
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 3: We've seen what happened to Luise Heal, Carlos Rodan, you know,

920
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 3: up and down, he struggled Stroman, Nester Cortez, Like none

921
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 3: of them are sure things like it's a solid.

922
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: Staff, Like when s Jong Carlow coming back.

923
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 2: Doesn't matter, you know, it doesn't matter.

924
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 1: They add a little bit of help to I mean,

925
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 1: because you're right, Like, and I was paying a lot

926
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,720
Speaker 1: of close attention to this during the Oils Yankee series

927
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:36,399
Speaker 1: this weekend, Like it is Judge, it is Sodo and

928
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 1: then it's like really nothing else at least in terms

929
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 1: of the batting lineup.

930
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I was looking at the rock.

931
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 3: That conversation led me to kind of look at the

932
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:47,280
Speaker 3: roster and then just looking at the standings. Now, obviously

933
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 3: it's gonna be hard to miss the playoffs because of

934
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 3: the three wild card spots, but they're also they're three

935
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 3: and a half games up on a wild card spot.

936
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 3: The Twins are right behind them, the Red Sox right

937
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 3: behind them, the Royals are five games back, and then

938
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 3: you have the Astros, Rays, and the Rangers all sitting

939
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 3: right there. And like it's one bad week from the

940
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 3: from the Yankees and all of a sudden that race

941
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:10,360
Speaker 3: is real tight. And that's assuming they don't overtake the

942
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 3: oils in the in the Al East. But like there's

943
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 3: a really I think they're going to make the playoffs

944
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 3: because there are three wild card spots, but there's a

945
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,959
Speaker 3: realistic scenario where they're the second or third wildcard team

946
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 3: or doomsday scenario. They're on the outside looking to end it.

947
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,320
Speaker 3: But I think they it would take probably an injury

948
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 3: to judge or soda for that to happen.

949
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 1: Let's go to our season long two Start Picture competition.

950
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 1: Like I mentioned earlier, the current record is Worm nine

951
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: and Mayor six. And because of the nature of this

952
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: week where it can be uncertain if guys are actually

953
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 1: lined up as two star pitchers or not as teams,

954
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 1: kind of reset the rotations plus all Star brek. We're

955
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 1: also taping this We should mention on Wednesday of this week.

956
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: Just it's how it worked out for scheduling, and we

957
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 1: figured it was fine to go early because there were

958
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 1: no games going on between now and when the school released.

959
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: But one of the effects of that is it's even

960
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: less clear kind of who for sure will be the

961
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 1: two star pictures. So we did our best. We checked

962
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 1: a couple websites and tried to project out as best

963
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,359
Speaker 1: we could who it would be. But with that of mine,

964
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 1: we each provided backups for this week in case our

965
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 1: main person doesn't work out. So my main pick is

966
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: Zach Wheeler, and yes I did pick him in week

967
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 1: one and we said no repeats. But if you'll remember

968
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 1: Mayor when he was out of town, Bogman filled in

969
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 1: and Bogman made a pick for him. I thought Bogman

970
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: had access to the list of pictures that had already

971
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 1: been used. It turns out he didn't, so in the moment,

972
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 1: I made an executive decision that when he picked Aaron Nola,

973
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: who mayor had already used that okay, we would allow

974
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 1: one time for each of us, a one time repeat.

975
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 1: So I'm going to try and use that this week,

976
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,919
Speaker 1: mostly because you picked my favorite option and I don't

977
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 1: really like anybody else that all that much. There's some

978
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:50,799
Speaker 1: okay options, but I just you know, wasn't a big

979
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 1: fan of this week. So I'm going with Zach Wheeler

980
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:57,279
Speaker 1: at Minnesota and home versus Cleveland my backup. And by

981
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 1: the way, with Wheeler's injury question marks like, I'm not

982
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: sure what the Philly as of right now are going

983
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,240
Speaker 1: to do to line up the second half the rotation

984
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 1: or what they're going to do with him, so I

985
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 1: think there's a real chance that he doesn't make his two starts.

986
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 1: If he doesn't, my backup is Bryce Miller. He is

987
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: has really nice matchups home against the Angels and home

988
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 1: against the terrible White Sox. So my pick is Zach Wheeler.

989
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 1: Backup is Bryce Miller, who you got?

990
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 2: So I have Cole Reagan so I have not used

991
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 2: yet this year. He's at home.

992
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 3: He has two home starts, home against the Diamondbacks and

993
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 3: home versus the Cubs, and my backup is Garrett Crochet,

994
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 3: which I think we're talking about for the show. Neither

995
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 3: one of us has used yet this season.

996
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: Neither of us. Neither one of us has used Reagans either,

997
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 1: which I was really surprised by. I'm like, these are

998
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:37,760
Speaker 1: two really good pictures.

999
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, it must have just I know early in the

1000
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 3: season I was I was saving people for no reason,

1001
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 3: but I kind of.

1002
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 1: Hate used Crochet because I was like he might not

1003
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:49,360
Speaker 1: be good in the second half because of the inning stuff,

1004
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 1: so like I should use him while I can, but

1005
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 1: I guess I guess I didn't.

1006
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 3: He also had a period there where he kind of

1007
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 3: wasn't pitching well, so he may have like come up

1008
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 3: on a two start week while he wasn't pitching well,

1009
00:44:59,200 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 3: so that could be.

1010
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 2: Part of it.

1011
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 3: And so his matchups are at the Texas Rangers and

1012
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:06,800
Speaker 3: home against the Mariners. So my pick is Cole Reagan's

1013
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 3: and my backup is Garrett Crochet.

1014
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 1: Reagan's is the one. I think he's the best pick

1015
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 1: this week, So I'll.

1016
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 2: Know you jinxed it. So now I'm going to lose again.

1017
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: Well I hope not, because he's on that team. I

1018
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: said that was really good, so I hope he does. Well. Yeah,

1019
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,399
Speaker 1: we're we're coming towards the end of evan of our

1020
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 1: time doing the show together. You know, as we kind

1021
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 1: of transition into football. The show will continue. It's not

1022
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: going anywhere, but us doing it together might not last

1023
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: too long. So I'm getting pretty darn close to maybe

1024
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 1: locking in a victory in this thing, unless we're going

1025
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:38,840
Speaker 1: to continue it with somebody making the picks for me

1026
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:39,800
Speaker 1: every single week.

1027
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, if I stay on as host

1028
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 3: and someone else does it with me, I think maybe

1029
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 3: we just keep the competition going and.

1030
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,320
Speaker 1: See if maybe I can like just submit my picks

1031
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 1: to you each week here or something like that, because

1032
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 1: that's that would be a lot of weeks of somebody

1033
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 1: else holding my feet in their hands. Yeah, all right,

1034
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 1: we'll get out of there on that. We ended up

1035
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 1: going close to an hour, So hopefully everybody got their

1036
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 1: their cycle Phil for this week. We'll be back next

1037
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 1: week as per usual, you know, towards the end of

1038
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: next week. But hope everybody enjoyed the All Star break

1039
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 1: and maybe had more fun with the All Star Game

1040
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:17,879
Speaker 1: than we did, maybe had more fun with the Homer

1041
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 1: Derby than may Or did. I certainly enjoyed it well

1042
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:25,359
Speaker 1: enough given our draft for Mayor, I'm Ryan warmly thanks

1043
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 1: everybody for tuning in and we'll see again next time.

1044
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast,

1045
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 1: Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros,

1046
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 1: and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com

1047
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 1: Slash Fantasy Pros MLB