WEBVTT - Analysis: Donald Trump Re-Elected President 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:13.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:17.520 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:21.240 on Apple car Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:21.520 --> 0:00:24.759 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:24.840 --> 0:00:26.680 us live on YouTube. 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:29.120 Right now, as we have friendship with us of Arkansas. 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:32.200 Later we have a Democrat, but he is a unique 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:38.080 indifferent Democrat. How many Democrats really started out is a 0:00:38.120 --> 0:00:41.800 selectment on the finance committee of their given village in town. 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:44.919 His was in the advantage of Greenwich, Connecticut joining us 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:50.200 now the governor of the state of Connecticut, Ned Lamont, Democrat, 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.199 and ned an honor to have you on with us today. 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.640 I'm going to suggest you are a wing of the 0:00:56.680 --> 0:01:01.720 Democratic political experiment, more conservative. How do you drag your 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:07.360 brethren towards Lamont politics in the next two and four years? 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:12.840 Hey, well, good morning Tom. Well, it was a wipeout 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:15.280 last night, and I hope it's a wake up call 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:18.600 for the Democrats. It was not a wipeout in Connecticut. 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:21.840 Not only did our congressional team go back, but we 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:25.520 actually picked up Democrats in the legislature of the House 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:27.880 in the Senate. I'd like to think we're sort of 0:01:28.319 --> 0:01:32.280 meeting potatoes Democrats. We balanced the budget, we cut middle 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:35.920 class taxes, we're pretty tough on crime, and you can't 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:37.440 get away from your roots. 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:42.240 Ned Lamont I saw last night over at CNN David Axelrod, 0:01:42.280 --> 0:01:46.720 who some people would say invented Barack Obama. Mister Axelrod 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:52.680 was scathing about East Coast Democratic elites lecturing working class 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:57.400 America and saying to them, lecturing them and almost saying 0:01:57.480 --> 0:02:00.560 to them, someday you can be like us, thought that 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:04.880 your entire life coming from the advantages you had. How 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:07.960 do we get to where Axelrod wants the Democrats to be, 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:12.079 which is they don't lecture the working class of America. 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:14.160 They voted for Trump yesterday. 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:19.280 I think that final a couple of days, Kama should 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:21.880 have been in a diner having a cup of coffee 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.359 and apple pie with a couple of the guys instead 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:28.560 of Oprah and Beyonce. But you know that said, Look, 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:31.359 I'm an Ivy League guy, I'm for granted, so I'm 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:34.240 hardly the person to say we are going to be 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:36.200 the party of the working families. But you've got to 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:38.880 reach out to BP got to talk to people every day. 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:41.280 I go to the factory line and make sure people 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:43.639 have a sense that we're there for them. You know, 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:46.920 Washington under Biden, they worked very many business people at 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:49.000 all in that administration. Could I have been led by 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:51.079 a business guy? Ned? 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:54.440 How do you think Democrats should work with the Trump 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:57.679 administration over the next four years? 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:01.480 Well, the next two years is going to have the House, 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:07.000 the Senate, the White House, and the Supreme Court. My job, Paul, 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:09.400 is to I'm a governor. I've got to work with 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:12.040 the president. I can't sit around on the sidelines just 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:16.560 getting angry. We work with the White House every day 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:20.320 and everything from the infrastructure bill, see if that gets continued, 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:23.320 Healthcare is going to be probably at risk right now. 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:25.840 You look at what happens to Obamacare in the exchanges. 0:03:26.200 --> 0:03:28.520 These are all places I've got to work very closely 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:29.240 with the White House. 0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:34.200 Governor, what are you telling your fellow Democrats this morning 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:37.800 as they wake up and they think about the future. 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:46.240 But away to Cyanai's ball, the president won. 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:47.360 He won big. 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.680 He won't be complaining about the outcome and complaining about 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.880 electoral fraud. I'm pretty sure about that. And we got 0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:56.160 to do is we got to stand up for our 0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:59.960 values every day, remind people why we were voted back in, 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.200 you know, in bigger numbers, and make sure we also 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:05.280 realize that we have to work with the White House. 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:06.280 That's what the deal is. 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:08.840 Ned Lamont, you have been a businessman. 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:12.640 I mean I love this, Governor Lamont volunteering at the 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:16.520 Warren Harding High School in Bridgeport. For those of you 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:20.039 across the nation, Bridgeport is not Greenwich. To cut to 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:24.080 the chase, Ned Lamont, how do you get the Democrats 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:30.279 to understand that it's not just about billionaire taxes, it's 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:37.080 not about unrealized capital gains. It's about endorsing entrepreneurship. Is 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:40.600 mister Trump, in his own unique way, has endorsed. 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:44.520 I thought that Kamla was getting there when you talked 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:48.720 about the opportunity society, less about handouts, more about ladders 0:04:48.760 --> 0:04:52.360 and allowing people to start their own business and maybe 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:55.240 own their own home. That's what he tried to do it. Kinetically, 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.080 we've had more new business startups than ever before. We 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:00.480 used to offer big incentives to see if we're going 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:03.160 to direct big companies here. Now we're allowing a lot 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:05.039 of small companies to get some of the capital they 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:06.440 need to start up, and it's. 0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:10.599 Worthing so ned the future of the Democratic Party here. 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:14.360 How quickly do you think that this party will pivot? 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:16.560 And how much does it need to pivot do you think? 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:21.200 Look, I think it was a waybuck call. Like I said, 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.440 I hope there is some interest faction going on. And 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:27.960 you know, we we ignored the border for too long. 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:30.719 They say, what's the difference between you and Joe Biden. 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:32.480 I would have shut down that border to you legal 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:35.200 immigration on day one. I mean that was an answer 0:05:35.240 --> 0:05:36.880 that I think was needed. 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:41.120 Governor, one final question this morning. I know it's an 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:43.800 incredibly busy day for you. There's going to be a 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:48.640 national governor's meeting here coming up. After this seismic shift 0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:51.320 to the right that we see in America. Give us 0:05:51.320 --> 0:05:56.040 the tone, the bipartisan tone of the governors of America 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:58.880 is they address this new Washington. 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:00.960 One. 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:04.479 When the White House calls, you're there, we have the 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:08.040 holiday dinner and we get together. I think it will 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:10.640 be Joe Biden's finale if I'm not mistaken. I got 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:13.920 to check the dates. Sure, And governors, you know we 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:17.120 fewled maybe publicly privately. You're in the kitchen and you 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:19.800 roll up your slaves and say, how you handle that 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:22.240 Medicaid reimbursement issue. Let me tell you what we're doing. 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:24.440 So I'd like to think there's a little more of 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:27.040 that collaboration going on at the governor level. I don't 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:27.760 see it watching it. 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:29.960 Governor, what are you going to do about Amtrak between 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:32.000 New York and Boston? How can we you know, what 0:06:32.200 --> 0:06:34.479 what can you do to help us with the Amtrak 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:36.000 between New York and Boston. 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:39.560 I'm afraid we're the choke point on that time because 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:42.120 it was built a long time ago. It winds around. 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:45.440 But that said, when the infrastructure built a little credit 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:48.279 there to Joe Biden, that's going to make an enormous difference. 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:51.320 We're straightened out the tracks. We'll never be like Beijing 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:54.760 the Shanghai, but we'll be able to get another miles 0:06:54.800 --> 0:06:56.680 an hour of bus speed out of this and that 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:57.040 helps you. 0:06:57.240 --> 0:07:00.000 Yeah. Nick Burns is over his ambassador to China folks, 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:03.839 showing the trains, the perfect trains of China, while Paul 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:05.240 and I are on the acceleg one. 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:06.760 Why have we stopped outside? 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:07.080 You? 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:10.640 Even Nedlamont, the Democrat of Connecticut. Thank you so much. 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:20.080 You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.520 weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:26.800 Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:28.440 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:31.560 Well the Robinhood Now Steph Guild joins us. She's the 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:35.520 head of investment Strategies. I love the note you sent here. 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:38.640 I got to go to the bottom of the note. 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:42.080 The Doge moved off the election last night. 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:47.920 There. Look, we had huge amount of volume. We had 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:52.720 eleven times the normal overnight volume. We had election contracts, 0:07:52.920 --> 0:07:56.320 four hundred million election over, four hundred million election contracts. 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:57.760 What's an election contract? 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:00.880 We launched them on October twenty eighth, and you could 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:05.800 make your decision whether you wanted to Trumper, Harris and By. 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:08.000 I think it was something like nine thirty or ten 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:11.160 o'clock last night. It was eighty five to fifteen Trump, 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:15.120 and it was well before it was decided. So our 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:17.240 you know, our customers, our customers. 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:21.400 The answer my question. The Doge was traded last night. 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:24.840 The Doge was traded last night. Crypto was traded last night. 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:27.960 DJT was traded last night. Tesla was traded last night, 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:28.560 all of it. 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:32.920 So I guess, so what's driving this volume thing? Was 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:35.760 it just the excitement around the election and the potential 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:38.760 for change and people were putting in the Trump trade 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:40.960 last night because we're seeing the Trump trade in the 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:42.240 in the futures markets. 0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:42.520 Yeah. 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:46.280 Yeah, it was business as usual. We were watching the markets, 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:48.640 or at least our customers trading, and they were doing 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:52.600 things like, you know, buying the video and then selling 0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:54.720 as it was rallying after the dip it took on 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:58.240 October thirty. First they buying into pell andeer it rallied 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:00.360 on earnings. They were you know, those are the things 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:03.360 they normally do. And then in the overnight you saw 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:07.280 all of the election stuff start to happen in the activity. 0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:10.920 And how did the platform perform in terms of trading 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:12.880 eleven times usual volume? 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:16.280 Very smoothly, very smoothly. We were all up late at night. 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:18.520 So just bring us back to Robinhood. 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:21.160 How many customers do you have, what did they like? 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:23.320 What kind of volume do you did they trade? 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:27.520 I mean, we have over twenty million customers and we 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:30.400 do we do a lot of volume, depends on the day. 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:33.320 That's why I said like overnight eleven times was you 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:36.200 know one of our records, not the record, but one 0:09:36.240 --> 0:09:36.880 of the records. 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.040 So I've never even mentioned the stock on air, just 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:46.080 because it's so politically supercharged. Trump Media and Technology Group 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:51.080 court TMTG, the symbols DJT. I guess the trades are 0:09:51.120 --> 0:09:54.880 the prospects for the president? Is it a moonshot this morning? 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:56.480 Is it a meme stock? 0:09:56.640 --> 0:09:58.760 Is it like to the moon because of the outcome? 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:02.840 Yeah, I mean, it's absolutely correlated with the election. I 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:06.320 you know, we've seen the financials of the company. Historically speaking, 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:07.319 they haven't been that strong. 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:11.200 But wait, wait, wait, Lisa, your offspring was on this 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:16.560 right he's day trading Lisa's Lisa's offspring voted for the 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:17.120 first time. 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:19.720 He's day trading DJT office laptop. 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:19.959 Right. 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:24.440 Oh yeah, all night, Paul thirty four to forty three right. 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:28.240 Now, it's amazing. Who is a typical customer of the 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:30.680 robin Hood platform? 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:33.880 I would say, so, I've shared this before, but there 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:38.360 were average ages thirty four, and it's definitely more male 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:44.800 than female. Okay, and you know, professionals like working professionals. 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:48.440 It's a pretty wide gamut. And we've definitely seen an 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:52.439 uptick in those that are interested in coming to our 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:55.400 platform with a lot of the activities we've made. 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:59.120 No news today it's nine to twenty two Wall Street Time. 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:02.560 Are you going to pop USPX called fifty eight hundred? 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:05.280 Can you round it up to six thousand? M bloombers. 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.760 I mean I had a twenty percent probability of going 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:10.480 to six thousand. I think my one concern is that, 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:13.400 you know, last time Trump came to be president, interest 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:16.920 rates were around two They're over four now. Valuations were 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:20.920 eighteen times, they're twenty two times now. And you know, 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.720 I think the single biggest financial issue we're going to 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:26.880 face in the next few months and the next year 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:29.640 is going to be the deficit. We're at one point 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.920 eight trillion and tariffs. We made eighty billion in tariffs 0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:35.160 last year. Like that's not I don't know how that 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:38.480 fills the gap. So I think that to me makes 0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:40.520 me a little more cautious, which is why I'm kind 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:43.320 of sticking to the six thousand versus going a little 0:11:43.360 --> 0:11:44.080 higher right now. 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.880 So what are the real risks to the market right here? 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:50.200 Do you see because we do have rates coming down, 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:53.440 looks like earnings are pretty solid, and yeah, looks pretty 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:54.400 solid for earnings. 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:57.880 I think earnings actually this past season has been a 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:00.600 little bit disappointing in my opinion. They started out with 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.160 seven percent expected during his growth, we're coming in, you know, 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:06.200 round four percent. And margins have been the thing that 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:09.680 have been in focus for several quarters in a row, 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:11.800 and it didn't improve this time. And I think the 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.840 longer you have not great margins, the longer companies have 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:17.640 to really think about their costs. And I think inflation 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:20.840 is certainly an issue, especially with the you know, the 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:25.200 expectation of the some of the policies that Trump has 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:25.720 spoken to. 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:27.360 I hope you can come. 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:30.840 Back again because I'm looking at the DOGE and the 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:35.280 DOGE is up eighty five percent since like, you know, 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:38.400 a trump Ian moonshot here. Where were you on this, Paul, 0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:39.040 You're such. 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:42.640 A whisky now. I missed that one October of this year. 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:47.760 Tom Buddy's going I didn't even Bloomberg has a quote 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:48.360 on the DOGE. 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:50.160 Sure X d G. 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.720 I didn't know that exactly. I'm learning every day. Stephanie Gilt, 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:55.600 thank you so much for showing so Robert. 0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:59.960 This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:03.400 starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:06.280 Auto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:09.480 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.520 Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:14.360 A couple days ago, we were in a planning meeting. 0:13:14.440 --> 0:13:15.800 We do this like three am. 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:18.480 It's a zoom call with like twenty five people on 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:19.960 the call, and you know, I just sort of shut 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.680 up and had my first cup of coffee and I 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:26.160 cut in and I said, I just want Peter Troubowitz on. 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.880 I don't want anybody else on. Why do I want 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:32.840 Peter Trubowitzan, Well, he was at LBJ. Some would say 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:36.160 he founded LBJ back in nineteen seventy at the University 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.600 of Texas and now holds court at the London School 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:43.840 of Economics. And yeah, he takes a geopolitics sense, But 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:47.240 I thought on domestic politics, if you got LBJ and 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.680 LC going, this is someone to talk to as well 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:56.800 off your latest book looking at Fractured Liberalism, Professor Tubowitz, 0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:01.440 how fractured This morning is LBG Democratic Party. 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:07.280 Tom. It's great to be with you and Paul and Lisa, 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:10.880 it's been a bit been a while, takes a seismic shock, huh. 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:18.000 I would say the Democratic Party is shell shock right now, 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.760 and it's going to take some doing for the party 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:26.360 to kind of rally. There's many things about this that 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:31.560 are stunning. With Trump's victory, I think probably you know 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:36.320 the fact that it was so broad based that it 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:39.160 you know, you can identify when you look at the 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:44.720 exit certain groups and so forth. But he basically overperformed 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:50.560 his numbers, his performance in twenty twenty essentially across the board. 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:55.000 And me, the most stunning thing is that he cracked 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:59.960 the forty seven percent you know where the vote. Yeah, absolutely, 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:03.840 I mean that, and that's what gives him the basis 0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:05.120 for saying he's got a manage. 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.480 But Professor, if we read our Robert Carroll, we got 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.400 an LBJ from another time in place, who is the 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:16.000 definition of pragmatic before Vietnam ran them over? We need 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:20.760 a pragmatic Democratic Party, I would suggest even Republicans need 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:25.280 a pragmatic Democratic party to engage the debate. Pure research 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:28.240 of New Jersey says the far left makes up say, 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:31.920 twelve percent of the American public. How do the Democrats 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:35.200 in your study of history, how do they move to 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:38.120 the middle, out to the midterm and then on to 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:39.480 twenty twenty eight. 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:43.640 Well, I mean, you know, I think there's going to 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:48.760 be a lot of soul searching. But I suspect or 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:53.200 what I think will happen, is that we will see democrats. 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:58.560 A very strong argument put forth to focus on the basics, jobs, 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:04.760 the environment, education, civil rights schools at the local, the state, 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:08.320 and the national levels. But it is true on both 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:13.440 sides the extremes, there needs to be movement towards towards 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:16.600 the center. I thought the New Yorker front cover this 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:19.760 week kind of said it all about America, where it's 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:24.280 got statue of liberty on a tight rope over. I. Yes, 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:27.840 it's New York City, And you know, even with a 0:16:27.920 --> 0:16:33.240 stunning victory like this, it's still a very divided country, 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:35.560 a pretty evenly divided country. 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:38.920 Peter, you're over at the London School of Economics. What's 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:42.920 the feeling within London and the UK as they come 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:45.400 as they understand the results of the US election. 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:48.840 Well, I think people think about this. I think you 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:54.720 need to distinguish between the political and the policy implications here, 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:58.760 and not only with respect to the UK, but let's 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:04.679 say more broadly Europe. I think politically Trump's victory is 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:11.160 going to embolden anti globalist, populist sentiment in the UK 0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:15.520 but elsewhere, just as it did in twenty sixteen. I 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:19.600 think there's no two ways about that. At the level 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:23.359 of policy, you know, what people are talking about are 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:29.320 the implications of the victory in Moscow, in Jerusalem, in Beijing, 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:33.040 and here I think things as well as in Europe, 0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:36.960 and here I think things cut in different ways. You know, 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:41.840 in Moscow, in Jerusalem, I think, you know, it's basically 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:47.800 enhanced Putin and Netanyahu's negotiating positions vis A VI, Kiev 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:54.040 and Hamas respectively. They'll be bolstered those positions in European capitals. 0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:58.359 And this is true in London as well. The result is, 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:00.960 you know, it's only going to fuel worried about what 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:06.560 it means for America's longstanding commitment to European security. And 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:10.359 I think also given what Trump has said about the 0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:15.200 board ten to twenty percent tariff, European access to American market, 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:16.240 to the American market. 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:19.720 Peter Trubowitz the London School of Economics with his Friendshill 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:21.639 of Arkansas the Republican to. 0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:22.280 Be with us. 0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:24.560 In a bit, the Dow puts it on again. We're 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:27.640 up three percent, up three point one percent. We don't 0:18:27.640 --> 0:18:29.359 have a forty I can't believe him saying this a 0:18:29.400 --> 0:18:32.720 forty four thousand print. We're not there yet. I got 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:37.080 fifty nine one hundred SPC. It's not futures, that's trading, 0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:40.520 and Nasdaq was lagging up about one point seven percent, 0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:43.159 Nasik one hundred dollars two point two percent. 0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:46.159 Peter, what would you like to see the Trump administration 0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:49.640 do as it relates to tariffs that seem to be 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:52.440 one of the few economic discussion points here in this 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:57.200 election were terrorists? How do you think this plays out. 0:18:58.200 --> 0:18:58.560 Well? 0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:01.600 I mean, I I think it would be good on 0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:04.960 this side of the pond. I think there would be 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:09.879 there's a real strong desire, given the outcome here, to 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:12.720 have consultations about this. But it's not obvious to me 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:15.880 that that's what's going to happen. And if Trump does 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:22.119 slap tariffs, there will almost certainly be retaliation here as well, 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:26.200 and that's a downward spiral, and you know, one doesn't 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:28.719 know where that goes. I mean, I think the bigger 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:32.240 question in some respects is what happens on the other side, 0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:36.560 and with respect to Beijing, where he's talking about imposing 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:41.160 a minimum of a sixty percent tariff on Chinese goods, 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:44.639 and you know, Beijing didn't take it lying down in 0:19:45.400 --> 0:19:48.480 twenty seven and twenty eighteen, and they won't take it 0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:52.520 lying down this time. You know, it's hard to say 0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:55.159 there needs to be discussion in conversation. 0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:57.119 Professor, I want to fold this over into our next guests. 0:19:57.240 --> 0:20:00.800 One Offul french Hill of Arkansas with the GOP Arkansas, 0:20:00.800 --> 0:20:02.960 of course calling early because I think there's like three 0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:07.440 Democrats in the state or something. Peter Trubowitz, I've talked 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.440 to french Shill before about an old style of GOP, 0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:15.199 which is Frenchhill. Maybe it's former President Bush and his father, 0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:19.320 or maybe it's even Winthrop Rockefeller who changed the culture 0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:22.520 and fabric of Arkansas on a time of civil rights. 0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:26.560 You own the high ground on this at LBJ. Where 0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:29.040 are the Republicans after Trump? 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.960 It's Trump's party, and I think that you know, the 0:20:35.040 --> 0:20:39.159 Liz Cheneys and others who are in the party, the 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:43.640 so called more moderate wing, these old style kind of 0:20:43.920 --> 0:20:47.160 let's call them Reagan Republicans. You might be going back 0:20:47.200 --> 0:20:51.040 even a little further, but Reagan Republicans, they're in the 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:55.119 minority inside the party, and the party has changed, and 0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:58.760 it's i would say it's political base has changed. If 0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:01.600 you just look at I think one of the most 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:07.240 stunning things in the exit polls is the breakdown by education, 0:21:07.840 --> 0:21:12.760 where you just see the college educated voters versus non 0:21:12.840 --> 0:21:16.320 college educated voters. It is a very wide gap, with 0:21:16.359 --> 0:21:18.359 the ladder going towards a Republican park. 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:20.879 Peter Truree, what's honored to have you on with us 0:21:20.920 --> 0:21:22.920 today from the London School of Economics. 0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:32.680 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:35.960 starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:38.880 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:42.280 us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 0:21:42.280 --> 0:21:43.240 Bloomberg Terminal. 0:21:43.280 --> 0:21:46.680 We go to the Grace of Arkansas in Frenchhill, taking 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:49.160 out fifty nine percent. I think it is the vote 0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:53.639 against a good candidate. He joins us now in victory 0:21:53.640 --> 0:21:57.320 Frendshill of the second Congressional District in Arkansas. 0:21:57.760 --> 0:22:01.199 Frenchchill. This nation, whatever they're suasion. 0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:06.840 Yearns for the grace of Marcus Jones in French kill, 0:22:07.200 --> 0:22:11.680 where you have an election, you get a good result, 0:22:11.920 --> 0:22:14.600 you call up Marcus Jones, he calls you up, you 0:22:14.640 --> 0:22:17.879 say thank you, and we move on with our civics 0:22:17.960 --> 0:22:18.600 in our nation. 0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:21.640 Can we get that in a second Trump term? 0:22:23.119 --> 0:22:26.120 Morn and Paul Morning. Tom. I hope so, Tom, because 0:22:26.320 --> 0:22:29.600 we won the popular vote for the first time as 0:22:29.680 --> 0:22:34.160 Republican since two thousand and four, and obviously a substantial 0:22:34.200 --> 0:22:40.840 and possibly growing electoral college victory, and if the election holds, 0:22:40.880 --> 0:22:44.959 we'll have a significant Republican majority in the Senate, and 0:22:45.000 --> 0:22:48.239 I believe we'll end up with maybe somewhere between two 0:22:48.280 --> 0:22:50.600