Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
Speaker 1: on Apple car Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Right now, as we have friendship with us of Arkansas.
Speaker 2: Later we have a Democrat, but he is a unique
Speaker 2: indifferent Democrat. How many Democrats really started out is a
Speaker 2: selectment on the finance committee of their given village in town.
Speaker 2: His was in the advantage of Greenwich, Connecticut joining us
Speaker 2: now the governor of the state of Connecticut, Ned Lamont, Democrat,
Speaker 2: and ned an honor to have you on with us today.
Speaker 2: I'm going to suggest you are a wing of the
Speaker 2: Democratic political experiment, more conservative. How do you drag your
Speaker 2: brethren towards Lamont politics in the next two and four years?
Speaker 3: Hey, well, good morning Tom. Well, it was a wipeout
Speaker 3: last night, and I hope it's a wake up call
Speaker 3: for the Democrats. It was not a wipeout in Connecticut.
Speaker 3: Not only did our congressional team go back, but we
Speaker 3: actually picked up Democrats in the legislature of the House
Speaker 3: in the Senate. I'd like to think we're sort of
Speaker 3: meeting potatoes Democrats. We balanced the budget, we cut middle
Speaker 3: class taxes, we're pretty tough on crime, and you can't
Speaker 3: get away from your roots.
Speaker 2: Ned Lamont I saw last night over at CNN David Axelrod,
Speaker 2: who some people would say invented Barack Obama. Mister Axelrod
Speaker 2: was scathing about East Coast Democratic elites lecturing working class
Speaker 2: America and saying to them, lecturing them and almost saying
Speaker 2: to them, someday you can be like us, thought that
Speaker 2: your entire life coming from the advantages you had. How
Speaker 2: do we get to where Axelrod wants the Democrats to be,
Speaker 2: which is they don't lecture the working class of America.
Speaker 2: They voted for Trump yesterday.
Speaker 3: I think that final a couple of days, Kama should
Speaker 3: have been in a diner having a cup of coffee
Speaker 3: and apple pie with a couple of the guys instead
Speaker 3: of Oprah and Beyonce. But you know that said, Look,
Speaker 3: I'm an Ivy League guy, I'm for granted, so I'm
Speaker 3: hardly the person to say we are going to be
Speaker 3: the party of the working families. But you've got to
Speaker 3: reach out to BP got to talk to people every day.
Speaker 3: I go to the factory line and make sure people
Speaker 3: have a sense that we're there for them. You know,
Speaker 3: Washington under Biden, they worked very many business people at
Speaker 3: all in that administration. Could I have been led by
Speaker 3: a business guy? Ned?
Speaker 4: How do you think Democrats should work with the Trump
Speaker 4: administration over the next four years?
Speaker 3: Well, the next two years is going to have the House,
Speaker 3: the Senate, the White House, and the Supreme Court. My job, Paul,
Speaker 3: is to I'm a governor. I've got to work with
Speaker 3: the president. I can't sit around on the sidelines just
Speaker 3: getting angry. We work with the White House every day
Speaker 3: and everything from the infrastructure bill, see if that gets continued,
Speaker 3: Healthcare is going to be probably at risk right now.
Speaker 3: You look at what happens to Obamacare in the exchanges.
Speaker 3: These are all places I've got to work very closely
Speaker 3: with the White House.
Speaker 4: Governor, what are you telling your fellow Democrats this morning
Speaker 4: as they wake up and they think about the future.
Speaker 3: But away to Cyanai's ball, the president won.
Speaker 5: He won big.
Speaker 3: He won't be complaining about the outcome and complaining about
Speaker 3: electoral fraud. I'm pretty sure about that. And we got
Speaker 3: to do is we got to stand up for our
Speaker 3: values every day, remind people why we were voted back in,
Speaker 3: you know, in bigger numbers, and make sure we also
Speaker 3: realize that we have to work with the White House.
Speaker 3: That's what the deal is.
Speaker 5: Ned Lamont, you have been a businessman.
Speaker 2: I mean I love this, Governor Lamont volunteering at the
Speaker 2: Warren Harding High School in Bridgeport. For those of you
Speaker 2: across the nation, Bridgeport is not Greenwich. To cut to
Speaker 2: the chase, Ned Lamont, how do you get the Democrats
Speaker 2: to understand that it's not just about billionaire taxes, it's
Speaker 2: not about unrealized capital gains. It's about endorsing entrepreneurship. Is
Speaker 2: mister Trump, in his own unique way, has endorsed.
Speaker 3: I thought that Kamla was getting there when you talked
Speaker 3: about the opportunity society, less about handouts, more about ladders
Speaker 3: and allowing people to start their own business and maybe
Speaker 3: own their own home. That's what he tried to do it. Kinetically,
Speaker 3: we've had more new business startups than ever before. We
Speaker 3: used to offer big incentives to see if we're going
Speaker 3: to direct big companies here. Now we're allowing a lot
Speaker 3: of small companies to get some of the capital they
Speaker 3: need to start up, and it's.
Speaker 4: Worthing so ned the future of the Democratic Party here.
Speaker 4: How quickly do you think that this party will pivot?
Speaker 4: And how much does it need to pivot do you think?
Speaker 3: Look, I think it was a waybuck call. Like I said,
Speaker 3: I hope there is some interest faction going on. And
Speaker 3: you know, we we ignored the border for too long.
Speaker 3: They say, what's the difference between you and Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: I would have shut down that border to you legal
Speaker 3: immigration on day one. I mean that was an answer
Speaker 3: that I think was needed.
Speaker 2: Governor, one final question this morning. I know it's an
Speaker 2: incredibly busy day for you. There's going to be a
Speaker 2: national governor's meeting here coming up. After this seismic shift
Speaker 2: to the right that we see in America. Give us
Speaker 2: the tone, the bipartisan tone of the governors of America
Speaker 2: is they address this new Washington.
Speaker 6: One.
Speaker 3: When the White House calls, you're there, we have the
Speaker 3: holiday dinner and we get together. I think it will
Speaker 3: be Joe Biden's finale if I'm not mistaken. I got
Speaker 3: to check the dates. Sure, And governors, you know we
Speaker 3: fewled maybe publicly privately. You're in the kitchen and you
Speaker 3: roll up your slaves and say, how you handle that
Speaker 3: Medicaid reimbursement issue. Let me tell you what we're doing.
Speaker 3: So I'd like to think there's a little more of
Speaker 3: that collaboration going on at the governor level. I don't
Speaker 3: see it watching it.
Speaker 2: Governor, what are you going to do about Amtrak between
Speaker 2: New York and Boston? How can we you know, what
Speaker 2: what can you do to help us with the Amtrak
Speaker 2: between New York and Boston.
Speaker 3: I'm afraid we're the choke point on that time because
Speaker 3: it was built a long time ago. It winds around.
Speaker 3: But that said, when the infrastructure built a little credit
Speaker 3: there to Joe Biden, that's going to make an enormous difference.
Speaker 3: We're straightened out the tracks. We'll never be like Beijing
Speaker 3: the Shanghai, but we'll be able to get another miles
Speaker 3: an hour of bus speed out of this and that
Speaker 3: helps you.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Nick Burns is over his ambassador to China folks,
Speaker 2: showing the trains, the perfect trains of China, while Paul
Speaker 2: and I are on the acceleg one.
Speaker 5: Why have we stopped outside?
Speaker 7: You?
Speaker 2: Even Nedlamont, the Democrat of Connecticut. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on
Speaker 1: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Well the Robinhood Now Steph Guild joins us. She's the
Speaker 2: head of investment Strategies. I love the note you sent here.
Speaker 5: I got to go to the bottom of the note.
Speaker 5: The Doge moved off the election last night.
Speaker 8: There. Look, we had huge amount of volume. We had
Speaker 8: eleven times the normal overnight volume. We had election contracts,
Speaker 8: four hundred million election over, four hundred million election contracts.
Speaker 5: What's an election contract?
Speaker 8: We launched them on October twenty eighth, and you could
Speaker 8: make your decision whether you wanted to Trumper, Harris and By.
Speaker 8: I think it was something like nine thirty or ten
Speaker 8: o'clock last night. It was eighty five to fifteen Trump,
Speaker 8: and it was well before it was decided. So our
Speaker 8: you know, our customers, our customers.
Speaker 5: The answer my question. The Doge was traded last night.
Speaker 8: The Doge was traded last night. Crypto was traded last night.
Speaker 8: DJT was traded last night. Tesla was traded last night,
Speaker 8: all of it.
Speaker 4: So I guess, so what's driving this volume thing? Was
Speaker 4: it just the excitement around the election and the potential
Speaker 4: for change and people were putting in the Trump trade
Speaker 4: last night because we're seeing the Trump trade in the
Speaker 4: in the futures markets.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it was business as usual. We were watching the markets,
Speaker 8: or at least our customers trading, and they were doing
Speaker 8: things like, you know, buying the video and then selling
Speaker 8: as it was rallying after the dip it took on
Speaker 8: October thirty. First they buying into pell andeer it rallied
Speaker 8: on earnings. They were you know, those are the things
Speaker 8: they normally do. And then in the overnight you saw
Speaker 8: all of the election stuff start to happen in the activity.
Speaker 4: And how did the platform perform in terms of trading
Speaker 4: eleven times usual volume?
Speaker 8: Very smoothly, very smoothly. We were all up late at night.
Speaker 5: So just bring us back to Robinhood.
Speaker 4: How many customers do you have, what did they like?
Speaker 4: What kind of volume do you did they trade?
Speaker 8: I mean, we have over twenty million customers and we
Speaker 8: do we do a lot of volume, depends on the day.
Speaker 8: That's why I said like overnight eleven times was you
Speaker 8: know one of our records, not the record, but one
Speaker 8: of the records.
Speaker 2: So I've never even mentioned the stock on air, just
Speaker 2: because it's so politically supercharged. Trump Media and Technology Group
Speaker 2: court TMTG, the symbols DJT. I guess the trades are
Speaker 2: the prospects for the president? Is it a moonshot this morning?
Speaker 2: Is it a meme stock?
Speaker 5: Is it like to the moon because of the outcome?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, it's absolutely correlated with the election. I
Speaker 8: you know, we've seen the financials of the company. Historically speaking,
Speaker 8: they haven't been that strong.
Speaker 2: But wait, wait, wait, Lisa, your offspring was on this
Speaker 2: right he's day trading Lisa's Lisa's offspring voted for the
Speaker 2: first time.
Speaker 5: He's day trading DJT office laptop.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, all night, Paul thirty four to forty three right.
Speaker 4: Now, it's amazing. Who is a typical customer of the
Speaker 4: robin Hood platform?
Speaker 8: I would say, so, I've shared this before, but there
Speaker 8: were average ages thirty four, and it's definitely more male
Speaker 8: than female. Okay, and you know, professionals like working professionals.
Speaker 8: It's a pretty wide gamut. And we've definitely seen an
Speaker 8: uptick in those that are interested in coming to our
Speaker 8: platform with a lot of the activities we've made.
Speaker 2: No news today it's nine to twenty two Wall Street Time.
Speaker 2: Are you going to pop USPX called fifty eight hundred?
Speaker 2: Can you round it up to six thousand? M bloombers.
Speaker 8: I mean I had a twenty percent probability of going
Speaker 8: to six thousand. I think my one concern is that,
Speaker 8: you know, last time Trump came to be president, interest
Speaker 8: rates were around two They're over four now. Valuations were
Speaker 8: eighteen times, they're twenty two times now. And you know,
Speaker 8: I think the single biggest financial issue we're going to
Speaker 8: face in the next few months and the next year
Speaker 8: is going to be the deficit. We're at one point
Speaker 8: eight trillion and tariffs. We made eighty billion in tariffs
Speaker 8: last year. Like that's not I don't know how that
Speaker 8: fills the gap. So I think that to me makes
Speaker 8: me a little more cautious, which is why I'm kind
Speaker 8: of sticking to the six thousand versus going a little
Speaker 8: higher right now.
Speaker 4: So what are the real risks to the market right here?
Speaker 4: Do you see because we do have rates coming down,
Speaker 4: looks like earnings are pretty solid, and yeah, looks pretty
Speaker 4: solid for earnings.
Speaker 8: I think earnings actually this past season has been a
Speaker 8: little bit disappointing in my opinion. They started out with
Speaker 8: seven percent expected during his growth, we're coming in, you know,
Speaker 8: round four percent. And margins have been the thing that
Speaker 8: have been in focus for several quarters in a row,
Speaker 8: and it didn't improve this time. And I think the
Speaker 8: longer you have not great margins, the longer companies have
Speaker 8: to really think about their costs. And I think inflation
Speaker 8: is certainly an issue, especially with the you know, the
Speaker 8: expectation of the some of the policies that Trump has
Speaker 8: spoken to.
Speaker 5: I hope you can come.
Speaker 2: Back again because I'm looking at the DOGE and the
Speaker 2: DOGE is up eighty five percent since like, you know,
Speaker 2: a trump Ian moonshot here. Where were you on this, Paul,
Speaker 2: You're such.
Speaker 5: A whisky now. I missed that one October of this year.
Speaker 2: Tom Buddy's going I didn't even Bloomberg has a quote
Speaker 2: on the DOGE.
Speaker 4: Sure X d G.
Speaker 2: I didn't know that exactly. I'm learning every day. Stephanie Gilt,
Speaker 2: thank you so much for showing so Robert.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5: A couple days ago, we were in a planning meeting.
Speaker 5: We do this like three am.
Speaker 2: It's a zoom call with like twenty five people on
Speaker 2: the call, and you know, I just sort of shut
Speaker 2: up and had my first cup of coffee and I
Speaker 2: cut in and I said, I just want Peter Troubowitz on.
Speaker 2: I don't want anybody else on. Why do I want
Speaker 2: Peter Trubowitzan, Well, he was at LBJ. Some would say
Speaker 2: he founded LBJ back in nineteen seventy at the University
Speaker 2: of Texas and now holds court at the London School
Speaker 2: of Economics. And yeah, he takes a geopolitics sense, But
Speaker 2: I thought on domestic politics, if you got LBJ and
Speaker 2: LC going, this is someone to talk to as well
Speaker 2: off your latest book looking at Fractured Liberalism, Professor Tubowitz,
Speaker 2: how fractured This morning is LBG Democratic Party.
Speaker 6: Tom. It's great to be with you and Paul and Lisa,
Speaker 6: it's been a bit been a while, takes a seismic shock, huh.
Speaker 6: I would say the Democratic Party is shell shock right now,
Speaker 6: and it's going to take some doing for the party
Speaker 6: to kind of rally. There's many things about this that
Speaker 6: are stunning. With Trump's victory, I think probably you know
Speaker 6: the fact that it was so broad based that it
Speaker 6: you know, you can identify when you look at the
Speaker 6: exit certain groups and so forth. But he basically overperformed
Speaker 6: his numbers, his performance in twenty twenty essentially across the board.
Speaker 6: And me, the most stunning thing is that he cracked
Speaker 6: the forty seven percent you know where the vote. Yeah, absolutely,
Speaker 6: I mean that, and that's what gives him the basis
Speaker 6: for saying he's got a manage.
Speaker 2: But Professor, if we read our Robert Carroll, we got
Speaker 2: an LBJ from another time in place, who is the
Speaker 2: definition of pragmatic before Vietnam ran them over? We need
Speaker 2: a pragmatic Democratic Party, I would suggest even Republicans need
Speaker 2: a pragmatic Democratic party to engage the debate. Pure research
Speaker 2: of New Jersey says the far left makes up say,
Speaker 2: twelve percent of the American public. How do the Democrats
Speaker 2: in your study of history, how do they move to
Speaker 2: the middle, out to the midterm and then on to
Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, you know, I think there's going to
Speaker 6: be a lot of soul searching. But I suspect or
Speaker 6: what I think will happen, is that we will see democrats.
Speaker 6: A very strong argument put forth to focus on the basics, jobs,
Speaker 6: the environment, education, civil rights schools at the local, the state,
Speaker 6: and the national levels. But it is true on both
Speaker 6: sides the extremes, there needs to be movement towards towards
Speaker 6: the center. I thought the New Yorker front cover this
Speaker 6: week kind of said it all about America, where it's
Speaker 6: got statue of liberty on a tight rope over. I. Yes,
Speaker 6: it's New York City, And you know, even with a
Speaker 6: stunning victory like this, it's still a very divided country,
Speaker 6: a pretty evenly divided country.
Speaker 4: Peter, you're over at the London School of Economics. What's
Speaker 4: the feeling within London and the UK as they come
Speaker 4: as they understand the results of the US election.
Speaker 6: Well, I think people think about this. I think you
Speaker 6: need to distinguish between the political and the policy implications here,
Speaker 6: and not only with respect to the UK, but let's
Speaker 6: say more broadly Europe. I think politically Trump's victory is
Speaker 6: going to embolden anti globalist, populist sentiment in the UK
Speaker 6: but elsewhere, just as it did in twenty sixteen. I
Speaker 6: think there's no two ways about that. At the level
Speaker 6: of policy, you know, what people are talking about are
Speaker 6: the implications of the victory in Moscow, in Jerusalem, in Beijing,
Speaker 6: and here I think things as well as in Europe,
Speaker 6: and here I think things cut in different ways. You know,
Speaker 6: in Moscow, in Jerusalem, I think, you know, it's basically
Speaker 6: enhanced Putin and Netanyahu's negotiating positions vis A VI, Kiev
Speaker 6: and Hamas respectively. They'll be bolstered those positions in European capitals.
Speaker 6: And this is true in London as well. The result is,
Speaker 6: you know, it's only going to fuel worried about what
Speaker 6: it means for America's longstanding commitment to European security. And
Speaker 6: I think also given what Trump has said about the
Speaker 6: board ten to twenty percent tariff, European access to American market,
Speaker 6: to the American market.
Speaker 2: Peter Trubowitz the London School of Economics with his Friendshill
Speaker 2: of Arkansas the Republican to.
Speaker 5: Be with us.
Speaker 2: In a bit, the Dow puts it on again. We're
Speaker 2: up three percent, up three point one percent. We don't
Speaker 2: have a forty I can't believe him saying this a
Speaker 2: forty four thousand print. We're not there yet. I got
Speaker 2: fifty nine one hundred SPC. It's not futures, that's trading,
Speaker 2: and Nasdaq was lagging up about one point seven percent,
Speaker 2: Nasik one hundred dollars two point two percent.
Speaker 4: Peter, what would you like to see the Trump administration
Speaker 4: do as it relates to tariffs that seem to be
Speaker 4: one of the few economic discussion points here in this
Speaker 4: election were terrorists? How do you think this plays out.
Speaker 7: Well?
Speaker 6: I mean, I I think it would be good on
Speaker 6: this side of the pond. I think there would be
Speaker 6: there's a real strong desire, given the outcome here, to
Speaker 6: have consultations about this. But it's not obvious to me
Speaker 6: that that's what's going to happen. And if Trump does
Speaker 6: slap tariffs, there will almost certainly be retaliation here as well,
Speaker 6: and that's a downward spiral, and you know, one doesn't
Speaker 6: know where that goes. I mean, I think the bigger
Speaker 6: question in some respects is what happens on the other side,
Speaker 6: and with respect to Beijing, where he's talking about imposing
Speaker 6: a minimum of a sixty percent tariff on Chinese goods,
Speaker 6: and you know, Beijing didn't take it lying down in
Speaker 6: twenty seven and twenty eighteen, and they won't take it
Speaker 6: lying down this time. You know, it's hard to say
Speaker 6: there needs to be discussion in conversation.
Speaker 5: Professor, I want to fold this over into our next guests.
Speaker 2: One Offul french Hill of Arkansas with the GOP Arkansas,
Speaker 2: of course calling early because I think there's like three
Speaker 2: Democrats in the state or something. Peter Trubowitz, I've talked
Speaker 2: to french Shill before about an old style of GOP,
Speaker 2: which is Frenchhill. Maybe it's former President Bush and his father,
Speaker 2: or maybe it's even Winthrop Rockefeller who changed the culture
Speaker 2: and fabric of Arkansas on a time of civil rights.
Speaker 5: You own the high ground on this at LBJ. Where
Speaker 5: are the Republicans after Trump?
Speaker 6: It's Trump's party, and I think that you know, the
Speaker 6: Liz Cheneys and others who are in the party, the
Speaker 6: so called more moderate wing, these old style kind of
Speaker 6: let's call them Reagan Republicans. You might be going back
Speaker 6: even a little further, but Reagan Republicans, they're in the
Speaker 6: minority inside the party, and the party has changed, and
Speaker 6: it's i would say it's political base has changed. If
Speaker 6: you just look at I think one of the most
Speaker 6: stunning things in the exit polls is the breakdown by education,
Speaker 6: where you just see the college educated voters versus non
Speaker 6: college educated voters. It is a very wide gap, with
Speaker 6: the ladder going towards a Republican park.
Speaker 2: Peter Truree, what's honored to have you on with us
Speaker 2: today from the London School of Economics.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2: We go to the Grace of Arkansas in Frenchhill, taking
Speaker 2: out fifty nine percent. I think it is the vote
Speaker 2: against a good candidate. He joins us now in victory
Speaker 2: Frendshill of the second Congressional District in Arkansas.
Speaker 5: Frenchchill. This nation, whatever they're suasion.
Speaker 2: Yearns for the grace of Marcus Jones in French kill,
Speaker 2: where you have an election, you get a good result,
Speaker 2: you call up Marcus Jones, he calls you up, you
Speaker 2: say thank you, and we move on with our civics
Speaker 2: in our nation.
Speaker 5: Can we get that in a second Trump term?
Speaker 7: Morn and Paul Morning. Tom. I hope so, Tom, because
Speaker 7: we won the popular vote for the first time as
Speaker 7: Republican since two thousand and four, and obviously a substantial
Speaker 7: and possibly growing electoral college victory, and if the election holds,
Speaker 7: we'll have a significant Republican majority in the Senate, and
Speaker 7: I believe we'll end up with maybe somewhere between two
Speaker 7: hundred and twenty two and two hundred and twenty six
Speaker 7: seats in the House. We have two hundred and twenty today,
Speaker 7: so not a big majority over the two hundred and
Speaker 7: eighteen needed to control the House. But I think that
Speaker 7: sends a message let's try to work together and let's
Speaker 7: produce results for the American people. Let's not squander that
Speaker 7: popular electoral college victory and Republican majorities in the House
Speaker 7: and Senate.
Speaker 4: Congressman, what would be or what do you think the
Speaker 4: Parties to Do list should be at this point. Given
Speaker 4: it the Republicans now control the White House, the Senate,
Speaker 4: and potentially the House, what would to do to the
Speaker 4: switch it to look like?
Speaker 7: You know, there's so much undone. Paul, this isn't where
Speaker 7: I would start, but I think it's essential politically and
Speaker 7: that we need to have legislated solutions that both parties
Speaker 7: can vote for that will secure the border and reform
Speaker 7: our immigration system. We keep walking up to the edge
Speaker 7: of doing it, but not doing it. So I think
Speaker 7: that could be important in that maybe we could perform
Speaker 7: the green card system. We could have encouragement for people
Speaker 7: who want to move here and start a business. We
Speaker 7: could take care of the many, many people in this
Speaker 7: country legally awaiting a green card who've been here for
Speaker 7: years to work. Anyway, you get my point. I think
Speaker 7: that's an issue that's easily skipped over. The important issues
Speaker 7: for the Trump administration going into its first hundred days,
Speaker 7: besides confirming their leaders are using budget reconciliation to try
Speaker 7: to continue to bring federal spending down from the pandemic
Speaker 7: avalanche of spending, and pick and choose among the tax
Speaker 7: cuts that are expiring in twenty twenty five as to
Speaker 7: what to keep and then finally work together with recent
Speaker 7: Supreme Court cases that have limited federal agency discretion under
Speaker 7: the so called Chevron deference to get in Congress working
Speaker 7: on a regulatory budget, a regulatory agenda.
Speaker 5: Part of the Frenchhill charm is you had to meet
Speaker 5: a payroll.
Speaker 2: You ran a bank in Arkansas or two or three,
Speaker 2: I can't remember the details.
Speaker 5: Frenchchhill.
Speaker 2: We've got a banking industry in America in a jump condition.
Speaker 2: JP Morgan is up three standard deviations, up twenty dollars
Speaker 2: off of trend. Few others the more brokerage type, you know,
Speaker 2: banking type, Gold and Saxsmoregan, Stanley Paul doing just as well.
Speaker 2: But you know, I guess that's good for America. Are
Speaker 2: you going to see Friendshill here? How can we get
Speaker 2: more growthiness with our debt and deficit off of a
Speaker 2: run rat at two point eight percent?
Speaker 5: Do we really want a boom economy?
Speaker 2: Frendshill?
Speaker 7: I think we want a sustainable fiscal situation Tom, and
Speaker 7: we don't have that running of six or seven percent
Speaker 7: deficit to GDP on an annual basis. That's just not sustainable.
Speaker 7: And we need to have some consensus, and it's gonna
Speaker 7: take by partisan leadership to do that. I hope President
Speaker 7: Trump will set that tone. Neither Vice President Harris nor
Speaker 7: a former President Trump when they were campaigning talk much
Speaker 7: about the budget deficit. Fact maybe the opposite, And I
Speaker 7: think that's important to set that standard. It doesn't have
Speaker 7: to try to go immediately to balance, but it's can
Speaker 7: we put our current financing needs of the country on
Speaker 7: a more sustainable footing? And I think that's true in
Speaker 7: the regulatory budget as well. I think that will be
Speaker 7: positive for economic growth and for a healthy financial system
Speaker 7: in French.
Speaker 4: I mean, I think a lot of people. You know,
Speaker 4: the polls show that the American people want Congress to
Speaker 4: deal with the deficits and the national debt, but the
Speaker 4: political will just has never seem to be there. What's
Speaker 4: needed to shift that narrative?
Speaker 5: Do you think, well, it's such a good point.
Speaker 7: You know, the House Budget Committee last year Republicans controlled
Speaker 7: the House, but it voted thirty to zero, so it
Speaker 7: had all the Democrats and all the Republicans voting on
Speaker 7: the idea of a debt commission. I'm not sure that's
Speaker 7: the right approach because I think it's too broad. I
Speaker 7: would really propose that we tackle something like social security
Speaker 7: reform for the out years to assure seniors in the
Speaker 7: out years that they'll be a solid social security system,
Speaker 7: and do what Reagan and Tip O'Neil did. Tip O'Neil
Speaker 7: was the Democratic Speaker in the early eighties. Reagan in
Speaker 7: his first term. They appointed Alan Greenspan a chair, a
Speaker 7: commission with an up or down vote in Congress, like
Speaker 7: the Base Closing Commission of the late eighties. Here's some reforms,
Speaker 7: here's a way to make social security sustainable. And if
Speaker 7: we tackle it like that, that puts us on a
Speaker 7: more sustainable financial footing, assure seniors in the futures about
Speaker 7: the value and capabilities of social security. And I would
Speaker 7: remind people no one lost their election in nineteen eighty
Speaker 7: four when they voted for that. In fact, Reagan got
Speaker 7: a landslide Frenchhill.
Speaker 2: Last night, the FAM was gathered around watching the broadcast.
Speaker 2: We were chowing down the Tyson razorback nuggets. I mean,
Speaker 2: they were going down like nothing. A Congressman in one
Speaker 2: of the cherubs said, how did I told him that
Speaker 2: Frenchhill would be on the show, very excited about it,
Speaker 2: and they said, how did Bill Clinton get elected governor
Speaker 2: in Arkansas. How did Bill Clinton third, two years old
Speaker 2: Frendshill grabbed sixty three percent of the vote in republican
Speaker 2: conservative Arkansas. How did that happen?
Speaker 6: Well?
Speaker 7: Back when he did that, it was democratically conservative Arkansas.
Speaker 7: It was a super majority of the legislature. County judges,
Speaker 7: elected officials were all Democrats in the seventies and early eighties,
Speaker 7: but they were centrists, what you might call blue dog Democrats,
Speaker 7: and Clinton put himself at the front of their parade
Speaker 7: of a forward looking, pro growth blue dog.
Speaker 2: Can the Democrats, your opponents, can they get back to
Speaker 2: a blue dog attitude?
Speaker 7: They could, but they haven't so far. I mean, I
Speaker 7: see this every year for the decade I've served.
Speaker 5: In the House.
Speaker 7: They doubled down on what I call a center left
Speaker 7: progressivism that you find maybe in Brooklyn, but you don't
Speaker 7: find in Conway, Arkansas, and they try to run on it,
Speaker 7: and it hadn't worked for them yet.
Speaker 2: I'm looking here at what's going on, and you know, Paul,
Speaker 2: I think the Razorbacks sort of, you know, they sort
Speaker 2: of have a buye here, like you.
Speaker 5: Know, raising eleventh in the SEC.
Speaker 4: It's tough.
Speaker 5: They need more funding. I mean the.
Speaker 7: Team to watch is Vanderbilt. The last time Vanderbilt beat
Speaker 7: Alabama was an eighty four. You got a Reagan landslode.
Speaker 7: Vanderbilt beat Alabama last year for the first time in
Speaker 7: four decades, and we get this popular vote in Electoral
Speaker 7: College vote for Trump.
Speaker 5: It's too much. Take a note in the does anybody
Speaker 5: awake in the control room?
Speaker 2: Next time? Friendshills on, We got to get Damien Sassa on.
Speaker 2: They have a Vanderbilt moment.
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, Congressman, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: Congratulation to your party for a stunning election victory. It
Speaker 2: scenes across America.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.