1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: on Apple car Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: Right now, as we have friendship with us of Arkansas. 7 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 2: Later we have a Democrat, but he is a unique 8 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 2: indifferent Democrat. How many Democrats really started out is a 9 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 2: selectment on the finance committee of their given village in town. 10 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,919 Speaker 2: His was in the advantage of Greenwich, Connecticut joining us 11 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 2: now the governor of the state of Connecticut, Ned Lamont, Democrat, 12 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 2: and ned an honor to have you on with us today. 13 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 2: I'm going to suggest you are a wing of the 14 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 2: Democratic political experiment, more conservative. How do you drag your 15 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 2: brethren towards Lamont politics in the next two and four years? 16 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 3: Hey, well, good morning Tom. Well, it was a wipeout 17 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 3: last night, and I hope it's a wake up call 18 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 3: for the Democrats. It was not a wipeout in Connecticut. 19 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 3: Not only did our congressional team go back, but we 20 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 3: actually picked up Democrats in the legislature of the House 21 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 3: in the Senate. I'd like to think we're sort of 22 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 3: meeting potatoes Democrats. We balanced the budget, we cut middle 23 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 3: class taxes, we're pretty tough on crime, and you can't 24 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 3: get away from your roots. 25 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 2: Ned Lamont I saw last night over at CNN David Axelrod, 26 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 2: who some people would say invented Barack Obama. Mister Axelrod 27 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 2: was scathing about East Coast Democratic elites lecturing working class 28 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 2: America and saying to them, lecturing them and almost saying 29 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 2: to them, someday you can be like us, thought that 30 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 2: your entire life coming from the advantages you had. How 31 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 2: do we get to where Axelrod wants the Democrats to be, 32 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 2: which is they don't lecture the working class of America. 33 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 2: They voted for Trump yesterday. 34 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 3: I think that final a couple of days, Kama should 35 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 3: have been in a diner having a cup of coffee 36 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 3: and apple pie with a couple of the guys instead 37 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 3: of Oprah and Beyonce. But you know that said, Look, 38 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 3: I'm an Ivy League guy, I'm for granted, so I'm 39 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 3: hardly the person to say we are going to be 40 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 3: the party of the working families. But you've got to 41 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 3: reach out to BP got to talk to people every day. 42 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 3: I go to the factory line and make sure people 43 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 3: have a sense that we're there for them. You know, 44 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 3: Washington under Biden, they worked very many business people at 45 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 3: all in that administration. Could I have been led by 46 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 3: a business guy? Ned? 47 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 4: How do you think Democrats should work with the Trump 48 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,679 Speaker 4: administration over the next four years? 49 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 3: Well, the next two years is going to have the House, 50 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 3: the Senate, the White House, and the Supreme Court. My job, Paul, 51 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 3: is to I'm a governor. I've got to work with 52 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 3: the president. I can't sit around on the sidelines just 53 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 3: getting angry. We work with the White House every day 54 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 3: and everything from the infrastructure bill, see if that gets continued, 55 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 3: Healthcare is going to be probably at risk right now. 56 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 3: You look at what happens to Obamacare in the exchanges. 57 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,520 Speaker 3: These are all places I've got to work very closely 58 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 3: with the White House. 59 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 4: Governor, what are you telling your fellow Democrats this morning 60 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 4: as they wake up and they think about the future. 61 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 3: But away to Cyanai's ball, the president won. 62 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 5: He won big. 63 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 3: He won't be complaining about the outcome and complaining about 64 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 3: electoral fraud. I'm pretty sure about that. And we got 65 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 3: to do is we got to stand up for our 66 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 3: values every day, remind people why we were voted back in, 67 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 3: you know, in bigger numbers, and make sure we also 68 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 3: realize that we have to work with the White House. 69 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 3: That's what the deal is. 70 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 5: Ned Lamont, you have been a businessman. 71 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 2: I mean I love this, Governor Lamont volunteering at the 72 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 2: Warren Harding High School in Bridgeport. For those of you 73 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 2: across the nation, Bridgeport is not Greenwich. To cut to 74 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 2: the chase, Ned Lamont, how do you get the Democrats 75 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 2: to understand that it's not just about billionaire taxes, it's 76 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 2: not about unrealized capital gains. It's about endorsing entrepreneurship. Is 77 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,600 Speaker 2: mister Trump, in his own unique way, has endorsed. 78 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 3: I thought that Kamla was getting there when you talked 79 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 3: about the opportunity society, less about handouts, more about ladders 80 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 3: and allowing people to start their own business and maybe 81 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 3: own their own home. That's what he tried to do it. Kinetically, 82 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 3: we've had more new business startups than ever before. We 83 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 3: used to offer big incentives to see if we're going 84 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 3: to direct big companies here. Now we're allowing a lot 85 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,039 Speaker 3: of small companies to get some of the capital they 86 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 3: need to start up, and it's. 87 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 4: Worthing so ned the future of the Democratic Party here. 88 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 4: How quickly do you think that this party will pivot? 89 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 4: And how much does it need to pivot do you think? 90 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 3: Look, I think it was a waybuck call. Like I said, 91 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 3: I hope there is some interest faction going on. And 92 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 3: you know, we we ignored the border for too long. 93 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 3: They say, what's the difference between you and Joe Biden. 94 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 3: I would have shut down that border to you legal 95 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 3: immigration on day one. I mean that was an answer 96 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 3: that I think was needed. 97 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 2: Governor, one final question this morning. I know it's an 98 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 2: incredibly busy day for you. There's going to be a 99 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 2: national governor's meeting here coming up. After this seismic shift 100 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 2: to the right that we see in America. Give us 101 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 2: the tone, the bipartisan tone of the governors of America 102 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 2: is they address this new Washington. 103 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 6: One. 104 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 3: When the White House calls, you're there, we have the 105 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 3: holiday dinner and we get together. I think it will 106 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 3: be Joe Biden's finale if I'm not mistaken. I got 107 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 3: to check the dates. Sure, And governors, you know we 108 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 3: fewled maybe publicly privately. You're in the kitchen and you 109 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 3: roll up your slaves and say, how you handle that 110 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 3: Medicaid reimbursement issue. Let me tell you what we're doing. 111 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 3: So I'd like to think there's a little more of 112 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 3: that collaboration going on at the governor level. I don't 113 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 3: see it watching it. 114 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 2: Governor, what are you going to do about Amtrak between 115 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 2: New York and Boston? How can we you know, what 116 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 2: what can you do to help us with the Amtrak 117 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 2: between New York and Boston. 118 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 3: I'm afraid we're the choke point on that time because 119 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 3: it was built a long time ago. It winds around. 120 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 3: But that said, when the infrastructure built a little credit 121 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 3: there to Joe Biden, that's going to make an enormous difference. 122 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 3: We're straightened out the tracks. We'll never be like Beijing 123 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 3: the Shanghai, but we'll be able to get another miles 124 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 3: an hour of bus speed out of this and that 125 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 3: helps you. 126 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. Nick Burns is over his ambassador to China folks, 127 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,839 Speaker 2: showing the trains, the perfect trains of China, while Paul 128 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 2: and I are on the acceleg one. 129 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 5: Why have we stopped outside? 130 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 7: You? 131 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: Even Nedlamont, the Democrat of Connecticut. Thank you so much. 132 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 133 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on 134 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, 135 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 136 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 2: Well the Robinhood Now Steph Guild joins us. She's the 137 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 2: head of investment Strategies. I love the note you sent here. 138 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 5: I got to go to the bottom of the note. 139 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 5: The Doge moved off the election last night. 140 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 8: There. Look, we had huge amount of volume. We had 141 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 8: eleven times the normal overnight volume. We had election contracts, 142 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 8: four hundred million election over, four hundred million election contracts. 143 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 5: What's an election contract? 144 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 8: We launched them on October twenty eighth, and you could 145 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 8: make your decision whether you wanted to Trumper, Harris and By. 146 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 8: I think it was something like nine thirty or ten 147 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 8: o'clock last night. It was eighty five to fifteen Trump, 148 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 8: and it was well before it was decided. So our 149 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 8: you know, our customers, our customers. 150 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 5: The answer my question. The Doge was traded last night. 151 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 8: The Doge was traded last night. Crypto was traded last night. 152 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 8: DJT was traded last night. Tesla was traded last night, 153 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 8: all of it. 154 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 4: So I guess, so what's driving this volume thing? Was 155 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 4: it just the excitement around the election and the potential 156 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 4: for change and people were putting in the Trump trade 157 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 4: last night because we're seeing the Trump trade in the 158 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 4: in the futures markets. 159 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 5: Yeah. 160 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 8: Yeah, it was business as usual. We were watching the markets, 161 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 8: or at least our customers trading, and they were doing 162 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 8: things like, you know, buying the video and then selling 163 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 8: as it was rallying after the dip it took on 164 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 8: October thirty. First they buying into pell andeer it rallied 165 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 8: on earnings. They were you know, those are the things 166 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 8: they normally do. And then in the overnight you saw 167 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 8: all of the election stuff start to happen in the activity. 168 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 4: And how did the platform perform in terms of trading 169 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 4: eleven times usual volume? 170 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 8: Very smoothly, very smoothly. We were all up late at night. 171 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 5: So just bring us back to Robinhood. 172 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 4: How many customers do you have, what did they like? 173 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 4: What kind of volume do you did they trade? 174 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 8: I mean, we have over twenty million customers and we 175 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 8: do we do a lot of volume, depends on the day. 176 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 8: That's why I said like overnight eleven times was you 177 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 8: know one of our records, not the record, but one 178 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 8: of the records. 179 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 2: So I've never even mentioned the stock on air, just 180 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 2: because it's so politically supercharged. Trump Media and Technology Group 181 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 2: court TMTG, the symbols DJT. I guess the trades are 182 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 2: the prospects for the president? Is it a moonshot this morning? 183 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 2: Is it a meme stock? 184 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 5: Is it like to the moon because of the outcome? 185 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, it's absolutely correlated with the election. I 186 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 8: you know, we've seen the financials of the company. Historically speaking, 187 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:07,319 Speaker 8: they haven't been that strong. 188 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 2: But wait, wait, wait, Lisa, your offspring was on this 189 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 2: right he's day trading Lisa's Lisa's offspring voted for the 190 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 2: first time. 191 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 5: He's day trading DJT office laptop. 192 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:19,959 Speaker 3: Right. 193 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 5: Oh yeah, all night, Paul thirty four to forty three right. 194 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 4: Now, it's amazing. Who is a typical customer of the 195 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 4: robin Hood platform? 196 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 8: I would say, so, I've shared this before, but there 197 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 8: were average ages thirty four, and it's definitely more male 198 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 8: than female. Okay, and you know, professionals like working professionals. 199 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 8: It's a pretty wide gamut. And we've definitely seen an 200 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 8: uptick in those that are interested in coming to our 201 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 8: platform with a lot of the activities we've made. 202 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 2: No news today it's nine to twenty two Wall Street Time. 203 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 2: Are you going to pop USPX called fifty eight hundred? 204 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 2: Can you round it up to six thousand? M bloombers. 205 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 8: I mean I had a twenty percent probability of going 206 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 8: to six thousand. I think my one concern is that, 207 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 8: you know, last time Trump came to be president, interest 208 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 8: rates were around two They're over four now. Valuations were 209 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 8: eighteen times, they're twenty two times now. And you know, 210 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 8: I think the single biggest financial issue we're going to 211 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 8: face in the next few months and the next year 212 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 8: is going to be the deficit. We're at one point 213 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 8: eight trillion and tariffs. We made eighty billion in tariffs 214 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 8: last year. Like that's not I don't know how that 215 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 8: fills the gap. So I think that to me makes 216 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 8: me a little more cautious, which is why I'm kind 217 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 8: of sticking to the six thousand versus going a little 218 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 8: higher right now. 219 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 4: So what are the real risks to the market right here? 220 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 4: Do you see because we do have rates coming down, 221 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 4: looks like earnings are pretty solid, and yeah, looks pretty 222 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 4: solid for earnings. 223 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 8: I think earnings actually this past season has been a 224 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 8: little bit disappointing in my opinion. They started out with 225 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 8: seven percent expected during his growth, we're coming in, you know, 226 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 8: round four percent. And margins have been the thing that 227 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 8: have been in focus for several quarters in a row, 228 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 8: and it didn't improve this time. And I think the 229 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 8: longer you have not great margins, the longer companies have 230 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 8: to really think about their costs. And I think inflation 231 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 8: is certainly an issue, especially with the you know, the 232 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 8: expectation of the some of the policies that Trump has 233 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 8: spoken to. 234 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 5: I hope you can come. 235 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 2: Back again because I'm looking at the DOGE and the 236 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 2: DOGE is up eighty five percent since like, you know, 237 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 2: a trump Ian moonshot here. Where were you on this, Paul, 238 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 2: You're such. 239 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 5: A whisky now. I missed that one October of this year. 240 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 2: Tom Buddy's going I didn't even Bloomberg has a quote 241 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 2: on the DOGE. 242 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 4: Sure X d G. 243 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 2: I didn't know that exactly. I'm learning every day. Stephanie Gilt, 244 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 2: thank you so much for showing so Robert. 245 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 246 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 247 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 1: Auto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 248 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 249 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 250 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 5: A couple days ago, we were in a planning meeting. 251 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 5: We do this like three am. 252 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 2: It's a zoom call with like twenty five people on 253 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 2: the call, and you know, I just sort of shut 254 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 2: up and had my first cup of coffee and I 255 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 2: cut in and I said, I just want Peter Troubowitz on. 256 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 2: I don't want anybody else on. Why do I want 257 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 2: Peter Trubowitzan, Well, he was at LBJ. Some would say 258 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 2: he founded LBJ back in nineteen seventy at the University 259 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 2: of Texas and now holds court at the London School 260 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 2: of Economics. And yeah, he takes a geopolitics sense, But 261 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 2: I thought on domestic politics, if you got LBJ and 262 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 2: LC going, this is someone to talk to as well 263 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 2: off your latest book looking at Fractured Liberalism, Professor Tubowitz, 264 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 2: how fractured This morning is LBG Democratic Party. 265 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 6: Tom. It's great to be with you and Paul and Lisa, 266 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 6: it's been a bit been a while, takes a seismic shock, huh. 267 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 6: I would say the Democratic Party is shell shock right now, 268 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 6: and it's going to take some doing for the party 269 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 6: to kind of rally. There's many things about this that 270 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 6: are stunning. With Trump's victory, I think probably you know 271 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 6: the fact that it was so broad based that it 272 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 6: you know, you can identify when you look at the 273 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 6: exit certain groups and so forth. But he basically overperformed 274 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 6: his numbers, his performance in twenty twenty essentially across the board. 275 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 6: And me, the most stunning thing is that he cracked 276 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 6: the forty seven percent you know where the vote. Yeah, absolutely, 277 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 6: I mean that, and that's what gives him the basis 278 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 6: for saying he's got a manage. 279 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 2: But Professor, if we read our Robert Carroll, we got 280 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 2: an LBJ from another time in place, who is the 281 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 2: definition of pragmatic before Vietnam ran them over? We need 282 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 2: a pragmatic Democratic Party, I would suggest even Republicans need 283 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 2: a pragmatic Democratic party to engage the debate. Pure research 284 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 2: of New Jersey says the far left makes up say, 285 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 2: twelve percent of the American public. How do the Democrats 286 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 2: in your study of history, how do they move to 287 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 2: the middle, out to the midterm and then on to 288 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight. 289 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 6: Well, I mean, you know, I think there's going to 290 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 6: be a lot of soul searching. But I suspect or 291 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:53,200 Speaker 6: what I think will happen, is that we will see democrats. 292 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 6: A very strong argument put forth to focus on the basics, jobs, 293 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 6: the environment, education, civil rights schools at the local, the state, 294 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 6: and the national levels. But it is true on both 295 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 6: sides the extremes, there needs to be movement towards towards 296 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 6: the center. I thought the New Yorker front cover this 297 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 6: week kind of said it all about America, where it's 298 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 6: got statue of liberty on a tight rope over. I. Yes, 299 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 6: it's New York City, And you know, even with a 300 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 6: stunning victory like this, it's still a very divided country, 301 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 6: a pretty evenly divided country. 302 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 4: Peter, you're over at the London School of Economics. What's 303 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 4: the feeling within London and the UK as they come 304 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 4: as they understand the results of the US election. 305 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 6: Well, I think people think about this. I think you 306 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 6: need to distinguish between the political and the policy implications here, 307 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 6: and not only with respect to the UK, but let's 308 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:04,679 Speaker 6: say more broadly Europe. I think politically Trump's victory is 309 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:11,160 Speaker 6: going to embolden anti globalist, populist sentiment in the UK 310 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 6: but elsewhere, just as it did in twenty sixteen. I 311 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 6: think there's no two ways about that. At the level 312 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 6: of policy, you know, what people are talking about are 313 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 6: the implications of the victory in Moscow, in Jerusalem, in Beijing, 314 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 6: and here I think things as well as in Europe, 315 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 6: and here I think things cut in different ways. You know, 316 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 6: in Moscow, in Jerusalem, I think, you know, it's basically 317 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 6: enhanced Putin and Netanyahu's negotiating positions vis A VI, Kiev 318 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 6: and Hamas respectively. They'll be bolstered those positions in European capitals. 319 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 6: And this is true in London as well. The result is, 320 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 6: you know, it's only going to fuel worried about what 321 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 6: it means for America's longstanding commitment to European security. And 322 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 6: I think also given what Trump has said about the 323 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 6: board ten to twenty percent tariff, European access to American market, 324 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 6: to the American market. 325 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 2: Peter Trubowitz the London School of Economics with his Friendshill 326 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:21,639 Speaker 2: of Arkansas the Republican to. 327 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 5: Be with us. 328 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 2: In a bit, the Dow puts it on again. We're 329 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,640 Speaker 2: up three percent, up three point one percent. We don't 330 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 2: have a forty I can't believe him saying this a 331 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 2: forty four thousand print. We're not there yet. I got 332 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 2: fifty nine one hundred SPC. It's not futures, that's trading, 333 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 2: and Nasdaq was lagging up about one point seven percent, 334 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 2: Nasik one hundred dollars two point two percent. 335 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 4: Peter, what would you like to see the Trump administration 336 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:49,640 Speaker 4: do as it relates to tariffs that seem to be 337 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 4: one of the few economic discussion points here in this 338 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 4: election were terrorists? How do you think this plays out. 339 00:18:58,200 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 7: Well? 340 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 6: I mean, I I think it would be good on 341 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 6: this side of the pond. I think there would be 342 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 6: there's a real strong desire, given the outcome here, to 343 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 6: have consultations about this. But it's not obvious to me 344 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 6: that that's what's going to happen. And if Trump does 345 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 6: slap tariffs, there will almost certainly be retaliation here as well, 346 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 6: and that's a downward spiral, and you know, one doesn't 347 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:28,719 Speaker 6: know where that goes. I mean, I think the bigger 348 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 6: question in some respects is what happens on the other side, 349 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 6: and with respect to Beijing, where he's talking about imposing 350 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 6: a minimum of a sixty percent tariff on Chinese goods, 351 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 6: and you know, Beijing didn't take it lying down in 352 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 6: twenty seven and twenty eighteen, and they won't take it 353 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 6: lying down this time. You know, it's hard to say 354 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,159 Speaker 6: there needs to be discussion in conversation. 355 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 5: Professor, I want to fold this over into our next guests. 356 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 2: One Offul french Hill of Arkansas with the GOP Arkansas, 357 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 2: of course calling early because I think there's like three 358 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 2: Democrats in the state or something. Peter Trubowitz, I've talked 359 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 2: to french Shill before about an old style of GOP, 360 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 2: which is Frenchhill. Maybe it's former President Bush and his father, 361 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 2: or maybe it's even Winthrop Rockefeller who changed the culture 362 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 2: and fabric of Arkansas on a time of civil rights. 363 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 5: You own the high ground on this at LBJ. Where 364 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 5: are the Republicans after Trump? 365 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 6: It's Trump's party, and I think that you know, the 366 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 6: Liz Cheneys and others who are in the party, the 367 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:43,640 Speaker 6: so called more moderate wing, these old style kind of 368 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,160 Speaker 6: let's call them Reagan Republicans. You might be going back 369 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 6: even a little further, but Reagan Republicans, they're in the 370 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:55,119 Speaker 6: minority inside the party, and the party has changed, and 371 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 6: it's i would say it's political base has changed. If 372 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 6: you just look at I think one of the most 373 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 6: stunning things in the exit polls is the breakdown by education, 374 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 6: where you just see the college educated voters versus non 375 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 6: college educated voters. It is a very wide gap, with 376 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,359 Speaker 6: the ladder going towards a Republican park. 377 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:20,879 Speaker 2: Peter Truree, what's honored to have you on with us 378 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 2: today from the London School of Economics. 379 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:32,680 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 380 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 381 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 382 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 383 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal. 384 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 2: We go to the Grace of Arkansas in Frenchhill, taking 385 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,160 Speaker 2: out fifty nine percent. I think it is the vote 386 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 2: against a good candidate. He joins us now in victory 387 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 2: Frendshill of the second Congressional District in Arkansas. 388 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,199 Speaker 5: Frenchchill. This nation, whatever they're suasion. 389 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 2: Yearns for the grace of Marcus Jones in French kill, 390 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 2: where you have an election, you get a good result, 391 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 2: you call up Marcus Jones, he calls you up, you 392 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,879 Speaker 2: say thank you, and we move on with our civics 393 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 2: in our nation. 394 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 5: Can we get that in a second Trump term? 395 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,120 Speaker 7: Morn and Paul Morning. Tom. I hope so, Tom, because 396 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 7: we won the popular vote for the first time as 397 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:34,160 Speaker 7: Republican since two thousand and four, and obviously a substantial 398 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 7: and possibly growing electoral college victory, and if the election holds, 399 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,959 Speaker 7: we'll have a significant Republican majority in the Senate, and 400 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,239 Speaker 7: I believe we'll end up with maybe somewhere between two 401 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 7: hundred and twenty two and two hundred and twenty six 402 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,040 Speaker 7: seats in the House. We have two hundred and twenty today, 403 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 7: so not a big majority over the two hundred and 404 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 7: eighteen needed to control the House. But I think that 405 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,880 Speaker 7: sends a message let's try to work together and let's 406 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 7: produce results for the American people. Let's not squander that 407 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 7: popular electoral college victory and Republican majorities in the House 408 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 7: and Senate. 409 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 4: Congressman, what would be or what do you think the 410 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 4: Parties to Do list should be at this point. Given 411 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,199 Speaker 4: it the Republicans now control the White House, the Senate, 412 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 4: and potentially the House, what would to do to the 413 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 4: switch it to look like? 414 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,360 Speaker 7: You know, there's so much undone. Paul, this isn't where 415 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 7: I would start, but I think it's essential politically and 416 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 7: that we need to have legislated solutions that both parties 417 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 7: can vote for that will secure the border and reform 418 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 7: our immigration system. We keep walking up to the edge 419 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 7: of doing it, but not doing it. So I think 420 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 7: that could be important in that maybe we could perform 421 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 7: the green card system. We could have encouragement for people 422 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 7: who want to move here and start a business. We 423 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 7: could take care of the many, many people in this 424 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 7: country legally awaiting a green card who've been here for 425 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 7: years to work. Anyway, you get my point. I think 426 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,679 Speaker 7: that's an issue that's easily skipped over. The important issues 427 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,919 Speaker 7: for the Trump administration going into its first hundred days, 428 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 7: besides confirming their leaders are using budget reconciliation to try 429 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,639 Speaker 7: to continue to bring federal spending down from the pandemic 430 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:28,119 Speaker 7: avalanche of spending, and pick and choose among the tax 431 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,719 Speaker 7: cuts that are expiring in twenty twenty five as to 432 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 7: what to keep and then finally work together with recent 433 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 7: Supreme Court cases that have limited federal agency discretion under 434 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 7: the so called Chevron deference to get in Congress working 435 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 7: on a regulatory budget, a regulatory agenda. 436 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,360 Speaker 5: Part of the Frenchhill charm is you had to meet 437 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 5: a payroll. 438 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 2: You ran a bank in Arkansas or two or three, 439 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 2: I can't remember the details. 440 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 5: Frenchchhill. 441 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:58,120 Speaker 2: We've got a banking industry in America in a jump condition. 442 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 2: JP Morgan is up three standard deviations, up twenty dollars 443 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,520 Speaker 2: off of trend. Few others the more brokerage type, you know, 444 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 2: banking type, Gold and Saxsmoregan, Stanley Paul doing just as well. 445 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 2: But you know, I guess that's good for America. Are 446 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 2: you going to see Friendshill here? How can we get 447 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:22,159 Speaker 2: more growthiness with our debt and deficit off of a 448 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 2: run rat at two point eight percent? 449 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,200 Speaker 5: Do we really want a boom economy? 450 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 2: Frendshill? 451 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 7: I think we want a sustainable fiscal situation Tom, and 452 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 7: we don't have that running of six or seven percent 453 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:39,880 Speaker 7: deficit to GDP on an annual basis. That's just not sustainable. 454 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 7: And we need to have some consensus, and it's gonna 455 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 7: take by partisan leadership to do that. I hope President 456 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,199 Speaker 7: Trump will set that tone. Neither Vice President Harris nor 457 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 7: a former President Trump when they were campaigning talk much 458 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,439 Speaker 7: about the budget deficit. Fact maybe the opposite, And I 459 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 7: think that's important to set that standard. It doesn't have 460 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,360 Speaker 7: to try to go immediately to balance, but it's can 461 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 7: we put our current financing needs of the country on 462 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 7: a more sustainable footing? And I think that's true in 463 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 7: the regulatory budget as well. I think that will be 464 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 7: positive for economic growth and for a healthy financial system 465 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:14,639 Speaker 7: in French. 466 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 4: I mean, I think a lot of people. You know, 467 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 4: the polls show that the American people want Congress to 468 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 4: deal with the deficits and the national debt, but the 469 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 4: political will just has never seem to be there. What's 470 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 4: needed to shift that narrative? 471 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 5: Do you think, well, it's such a good point. 472 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 7: You know, the House Budget Committee last year Republicans controlled 473 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 7: the House, but it voted thirty to zero, so it 474 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 7: had all the Democrats and all the Republicans voting on 475 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 7: the idea of a debt commission. I'm not sure that's 476 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 7: the right approach because I think it's too broad. I 477 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 7: would really propose that we tackle something like social security 478 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 7: reform for the out years to assure seniors in the 479 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 7: out years that they'll be a solid social security system, 480 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,119 Speaker 7: and do what Reagan and Tip O'Neil did. Tip O'Neil 481 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,639 Speaker 7: was the Democratic Speaker in the early eighties. Reagan in 482 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 7: his first term. They appointed Alan Greenspan a chair, a 483 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 7: commission with an up or down vote in Congress, like 484 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 7: the Base Closing Commission of the late eighties. Here's some reforms, 485 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 7: here's a way to make social security sustainable. And if 486 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 7: we tackle it like that, that puts us on a 487 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,880 Speaker 7: more sustainable financial footing, assure seniors in the futures about 488 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 7: the value and capabilities of social security. And I would 489 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 7: remind people no one lost their election in nineteen eighty 490 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 7: four when they voted for that. In fact, Reagan got 491 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:33,200 Speaker 7: a landslide Frenchhill. 492 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:37,400 Speaker 2: Last night, the FAM was gathered around watching the broadcast. 493 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 2: We were chowing down the Tyson razorback nuggets. I mean, 494 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 2: they were going down like nothing. A Congressman in one 495 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 2: of the cherubs said, how did I told him that 496 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 2: Frenchhill would be on the show, very excited about it, 497 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 2: and they said, how did Bill Clinton get elected governor 498 00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,880 Speaker 2: in Arkansas. How did Bill Clinton third, two years old 499 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:06,160 Speaker 2: Frendshill grabbed sixty three percent of the vote in republican 500 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 2: conservative Arkansas. How did that happen? 501 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 6: Well? 502 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 7: Back when he did that, it was democratically conservative Arkansas. 503 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 7: It was a super majority of the legislature. County judges, 504 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 7: elected officials were all Democrats in the seventies and early eighties, 505 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 7: but they were centrists, what you might call blue dog Democrats, 506 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 7: and Clinton put himself at the front of their parade 507 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 7: of a forward looking, pro growth blue dog. 508 00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 2: Can the Democrats, your opponents, can they get back to 509 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 2: a blue dog attitude? 510 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,720 Speaker 7: They could, but they haven't so far. I mean, I 511 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 7: see this every year for the decade I've served. 512 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 5: In the House. 513 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 7: They doubled down on what I call a center left 514 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 7: progressivism that you find maybe in Brooklyn, but you don't 515 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 7: find in Conway, Arkansas, and they try to run on it, 516 00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 7: and it hadn't worked for them yet. 517 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 2: I'm looking here at what's going on, and you know, Paul, 518 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 2: I think the Razorbacks sort of, you know, they sort 519 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 2: of have a buye here, like you. 520 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 5: Know, raising eleventh in the SEC. 521 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 4: It's tough. 522 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 5: They need more funding. I mean the. 523 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 7: Team to watch is Vanderbilt. The last time Vanderbilt beat 524 00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 7: Alabama was an eighty four. You got a Reagan landslode. 525 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 7: Vanderbilt beat Alabama last year for the first time in 526 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 7: four decades, and we get this popular vote in Electoral 527 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 7: College vote for Trump. 528 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 5: It's too much. Take a note in the does anybody 529 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 5: awake in the control room? 530 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 2: Next time? Friendshills on, We got to get Damien Sassa on. 531 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 2: They have a Vanderbilt moment. 532 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 5: Oh yeah, Congressman, thank you so much. 533 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 2: Congratulation to your party for a stunning election victory. It 534 00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 2: scenes across America. 535 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 536 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 537 00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 538 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 539 00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 540 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.