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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.

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Speaker 1: What is up Straight Fire? Fam H's me Jason McIntyre.

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Speaker 1: Straight Fire for Tuesday, September fifth. Now, we started school

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Speaker 1: out here in southern California two weeks ago, but I

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Speaker 1: recall from my days growing up outside Washington, DC that

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Speaker 1: this was the day school starts the day after Labor Day,

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Speaker 1: so all kids across the country are back in school.

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Speaker 1: We now have the NFL just two days away, Lions

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Speaker 1: Chiefs Thursday Night Football. We have no Chris Jones as

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Speaker 1: of this moment. We'll see what changes we'll see. Maybe

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Speaker 1: Chris Jones asigned. I can't imagine that he plays a

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Speaker 1: big factor Thursday Night. Heck, there's a Bosa brother who

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Speaker 1: will talk about later in the show. Is he gonna

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Speaker 1: show up this weekend in Pittsburgh? Roy Niners definitely will

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Speaker 1: miss him if he's not there. I just I'm so

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Speaker 1: excited for the NFL. My son had his can I

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Speaker 1: say big money draft for a twelve year old, but

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Speaker 1: he had it on Monday. He did a pretty good job.

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Speaker 1: I guess listen to me. I'll say this Clemson Duke surprise.

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Speaker 1: It was on ESPN Surprise I still don't have it

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Speaker 1: thanks to the bastards. It's spectrum and yeah, I'm fired

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Speaker 1: up about it. I'm giving them until today at five o'clock.

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Speaker 1: If they haven't resolved this issue, I will be reaching

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Speaker 1: out and getting YouTube TV or Sling TV on some

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Speaker 1: kind of trial run in hopes that it's resolved soon.

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Speaker 1: You've got to figure that they get it resolved before

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Speaker 1: NFL Week one, right, I mean, the NFL is kid

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Speaker 1: college football.

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Speaker 3: I missed it. It's stunk.

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Speaker 1: But even my buddy who hosted the draft yesterday, he

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Speaker 1: didn't have Clemson.

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Speaker 3: We couldn't watch Clemson.

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Speaker 1: Duke during the draft, frustrating his heck, come on, man,

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Speaker 1: get your act together.

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Speaker 3: Anyways, We've got an amazing guest today.

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Speaker 1: If you gamble on the NFL, if you do DFS,

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Speaker 1: if you do fantasy, this is the guy for you.

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Speaker 1: His name is Ta, kind of anonymous, but not totally

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Speaker 1: and he's been coming on my radio show forever. He

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Speaker 1: then started to create his own website. You could subscribe

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Speaker 1: to it. We have an offer if you use a

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Speaker 1: code Jmack at the end of the show, you'll get

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Speaker 1: a discount. I subscribe to it.

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Speaker 3: I've done that.

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Speaker 1: For the last two years, he's been doing the Super

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Speaker 1: Contest in Vegas or the Circuit Contest, whichever one we alternate,

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Speaker 1: but he's been doing it. He's had more success than

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Speaker 1: I have, and he's really sharp. I think you guys

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Speaker 1: are really gonna enjoy this podcast. We break down like

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Speaker 1: half a dozen games in week one, some surprises, I think,

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Speaker 1: from his point of view, a lot of numbers. He's

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Speaker 1: the kind of guy where the numbers, the sun sets

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Speaker 1: and rises with the numbers in the NFL. He's big

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Speaker 1: on that and it's helped him immensely. It's helped me

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Speaker 1: here the last few years get better, and I think

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Speaker 1: you're gonna really enjoy it. So, without further ado, let's

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Speaker 1: bring in my main man, Ta from clevanalytics dot com.

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Speaker 2: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes

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Speaker 2: to sports.

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Speaker 3: I know what sports dance wants, but for.

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Speaker 2: Everything he doesn't, he knows the guy who does. Let's

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Speaker 2: just say I know a guy who knows the guy

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Speaker 2: who knows another guy.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's welcome into straight fire a guest who

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Speaker 1: I've did geez, I've talked to him here on my

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Speaker 1: podcast for several years. I would talk to him on

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Speaker 1: my radio show back in the day. Just this obscure

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Speaker 1: fellow on the internet who had some really good analytical stuff,

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Speaker 1: and he is just blowing up left and right. Let's

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Speaker 1: bring in Ta from clev Analytics.

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Speaker 3: Ta. How you doing, my man?

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Speaker 2: Good Jason. Yeah, you know, I tell everybody you're the

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Speaker 2: first person to quote unquote discover me back in the day.

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Speaker 2: It's probably been at least a decade. I had about

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Speaker 2: fifty followers on Twitter, and you're I think you had

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Speaker 2: asked one one Saturday, Hey, anybody got some some winning picks?

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Speaker 2: And I posted, I gave you like three or four

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Speaker 2: they all won. And then and then Sunday I gave

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Speaker 2: you like four more and I think I went three

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Speaker 2: and one and you're like, all right, guys, follow this guy,

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Speaker 2: and I grabbed. I went, I just started getting followers,

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Speaker 2: and you know, and kind of shot up to the moon.

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Speaker 2: So I really do appreciate you. You gave me my

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Speaker 2: first first crack at it, so always appreciable.

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Speaker 3: Well, thanks a lot.

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Speaker 1: I mean, listen, man, your infos as good as it gets. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: he started a website, Cleve Analytics, and I would recommend listen.

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Speaker 1: I know, I don't say go by picks. We had

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Speaker 1: Adam churnof On from Right Angle, and that's different. He's

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Speaker 1: just straight up their selling picks. They're telling clev is

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Speaker 1: selling information, which is stuff you're not getting anywhere else,

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Speaker 1: and it's weird.

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Speaker 3: TA listen.

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Speaker 1: I even saw a guy, do you know Jeff Fogel

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Speaker 1: by any chance?

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Speaker 2: No, A little bit of him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So he's like a Vegas guy and he

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Speaker 1: would put good interesting stuff on Twitter. And I just

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Speaker 1: saw he start a substack and again it's like fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars for the year whatever.

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Speaker 3: I'm like, I'll pay fifty bucks, like.

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Speaker 1: A Starbucks fifty bucks. Guess we like three weeks of Starbucks? Like,

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Speaker 1: what's the big deal? So paying for information? So I

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Speaker 1: subscribe to TA site. I recommend you guys doing the

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Speaker 1: same Cleve Analytics. We'll have a little promo here, but TA,

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Speaker 1: let's just start to dig in. We're not gonna go

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Speaker 1: big picture on the season. I'm ready for week one.

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Speaker 3: We'll just start this way. You are a big Browns guy.

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Speaker 1: You're from Ohio and you seem to every year you're

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Speaker 1: all over the Browns. If I see you backing them,

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Speaker 1: I'm usually piggybacking. I gotta be honest, I don't know

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Speaker 1: what to make of this team with Watson, I love

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Speaker 1: the roster. This Denzel Ward concussion stuff is a little

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Speaker 1: troubling here in Week one. I would love to go

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Speaker 1: against the Bengals and Burrow, who's coming off the calf injury,

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Speaker 1: but I don't know if I can do it. Divisional

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Speaker 1: dogs popular always in week one.

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Speaker 3: Where are you on Browns Bengals?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well so Browns in general, I've been high on

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Speaker 2: and I've seen that in the last couple of weeks

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Speaker 2: they're starting to get a lot of love from the

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Speaker 2: analytics community and just people in general noticing how talented

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Speaker 2: the roster is. And you know, I'm pretty you know, unbiased.

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Speaker 2: When Mike when To comes to my Browns if they're

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Speaker 2: if they're not, you know, doing something that that I

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Speaker 2: agree with, I'll definitely have you know, let them have

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Speaker 2: it on Twitter, so you don't have to worry about

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Speaker 2: this being a biased thing. But I mean, if you

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Speaker 2: look up and down the roster, you know how many

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Speaker 2: teams can say they have a top ten level quarterback,

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Speaker 2: they've got multiple elite edge rushers, they've got a number

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Speaker 2: one running back, They've got a good, you know, starting

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Speaker 2: receiver and Amari Cooper, a top ten offensive line, like

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Speaker 2: they have a top ten to fifteen secondary. They've they've

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Speaker 2: got all the right pieces in the right spots in

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Speaker 2: premium positions, and so it's just a matter of it

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Speaker 2: all coming together. And you look at Kevin Stefanski as

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Speaker 2: a coach, he's an offensive coach and he's taken guys

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Speaker 2: like Baker Mayfield and Jacobe Burssett and made them, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of top ten offenses a couple of times with

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Speaker 2: those guys. So you know, I think with an offseason,

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Speaker 2: they're going to implement a lot of the stuff that

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Speaker 2: Watson likes to do, which means a lot of empty formations.

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Speaker 2: He did a lot of that at Houston, was the

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Speaker 2: best in the NFL when you look at some of

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Speaker 2: the advanced numbers in empty formations. They led the NFL

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Speaker 2: in the preseason with empty formations at a high rate.

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Speaker 2: So you can see a lot of that. Spread the field,

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Speaker 2: let Watson kind of make, you know, make the decisions

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Speaker 2: and use his legs when he can, and then obviously

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Speaker 2: have you have Nick Chubb in the backfield win to

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Speaker 2: run the ball, and keep defenses honest. So I just

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Speaker 2: think that this is a really good team. Obviously, if

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Speaker 2: everybody stays healthy, We've got, you know, a seventeen hundred

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Speaker 2: attempt sample size of Deshaun Watson before last season. So

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Speaker 2: I'm not really worried about what happened in those six games.

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Speaker 2: Really unique circumstance, tough situation, kind of step right into

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Speaker 2: He had a couple of really cold, windy weather games

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Speaker 2: to deal with, so it kind of skews some of

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Speaker 2: his numbers. He wasn't good, but he wasn't the complete,

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Speaker 2: you know, bust that everybody was talking about. So I

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Speaker 2: think this team's got what it takes. I think this

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Speaker 2: week I do like them against the Bengals. I think

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Speaker 2: you mentioned home dogs. I mean, you never want to

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Speaker 2: play a trend blindly, but I do think it's interesting.

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Speaker 2: You know, Week one home Dogs are on a twenty

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Speaker 2: one and five run It's an eighty eighty one percent

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Speaker 2: ats clip since twenty ten, and they're covering at an

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Speaker 2: eight point per margin clip per game. It's just it's

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Speaker 2: been pretty incredible, and it makes sense a lot of

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Speaker 2: these home dogs are teams that didn't make the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: The prior year going up against a team that did

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Speaker 2: make the playoffs. That's why you get them at a

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Speaker 2: home home price here in division, they know each other,

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Speaker 2: you get a little bit of value on the on

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Speaker 2: the home team, and so you know that obviously is

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Speaker 2: an angle that makes sense, and you know, isn't isn't

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Speaker 2: one that I would bet blindly, but it's just kind

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Speaker 2: of cherry on top. I like the Browns. And then

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Speaker 2: I think with Cincinnati, you know, I think that they're

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Speaker 2: clearly going to be a contender, but the defense is all,

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Speaker 2: you know, essentially played over their talent level the last

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Speaker 2: couple of years. They've got a great defensive coordinator who's

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Speaker 2: put them in good positions. But you know, they faced

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Speaker 2: the most backup or poor starting quarterbacks last year when

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Speaker 2: you look at some of the advanced numbers. So they

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Speaker 2: played a pretty easy schedule from a defensive standpoint. And

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Speaker 2: then you look at Burrow. You know, people say, oh,

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Speaker 2: you know, he'll just step in Game one, like it's

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Speaker 2: no big deal off that calf. But you know, I

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Speaker 2: posted this on Twitter just about an hour ago. Not

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Speaker 2: sure if you saw it, but you know, people talk about, hey,

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Speaker 2: these quarterbacks that don't play in the preseason doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 2: So me and my team we went back and looked

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Speaker 2: did some research going back to twenty sixteen, and that's

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Speaker 2: about when quarterbacks started to sit more in preseason, and

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Speaker 2: we excluded the COVID twenty twenty year when when nobody

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Speaker 2: played preseason, there have been twenty seven quarterbacks who did

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Speaker 2: not take a preseason snap, but started Week one only

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Speaker 2: thirty three percent of the time. So nine of those

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Speaker 2: twenty seven quarterbacks did they go over their team total,

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Speaker 2: so they averaged nineteen and a half points. The team

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Speaker 2: total was, you know, over twenty four points. Their success

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Speaker 2: rate was forty six point nine percent in Week one

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Speaker 2: compared to forty eight point two percent in all other

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Speaker 2: games the rest of that season. You look at their

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Speaker 2: against the spread margin against against teams with quarterbacks who

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Speaker 2: did play in the preseason eight ten and one. So again,

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Speaker 2: and we saw last year Burrow with that apendectomy, didn't

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Speaker 2: play all preseason. He stepped in first play the game

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Speaker 2: picked six against the Steelers, had his worst game all year. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: he had four interceptions, five turnovers and they lost as

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Speaker 2: big favorites. So you know, again, these aren't things you

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Speaker 2: bet blindly. But they're just kind of cherries on top,

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Speaker 2: you know, with me liking the Browns more than the

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Speaker 2: market and liking the Bengals a little bit less than

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Speaker 2: the market, And I think that getting them at two

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Speaker 2: and a half, I think is a good number. I

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Speaker 2: think they went out right.

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Speaker 1: Historically, if memory serves like the last I think Burrows

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Speaker 1: struggled against Cleveland. Has he not as I think he's

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Speaker 1: like one and four? Any idea what that's about.

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Speaker 2: No, it's a good question. I don't know what it's about.

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Speaker 2: They've you know, done a good job on him. They

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Speaker 2: had a couple of interceptions. Two years ago, they had

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Speaker 2: a pick six to start the first drive of the game,

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Speaker 2: the Denzel Ward took one back like ninety nine yards.

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Speaker 2: Last year, there one game on Monday Night football at home.

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Speaker 2: They did get lucky. Jamar Chase did not play in

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Speaker 2: that game, but they just completely dominated and you know,

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Speaker 2: for whatever reason, they they've done well in the division

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Speaker 2: in general. You know, the Browns have you know, they've

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Speaker 2: been kind of mediocre from a defensive standpoint against all

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Speaker 2: other teams, but in division they've done a good job

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Speaker 2: against Lamar and they've done a good job against Burrow.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I'm not sure what it is. I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure if it's a personnel, but I think you know,

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Speaker 2: between that and you know, Jim Schwartz is a new

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Speaker 2: defensive coordinator with the Browns. I think he's gonna bring,

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Speaker 2: you know, aggressive attitude. He's turned defenses around in the past,

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Speaker 2: and he's been a defensive consultant with the Titans the

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Speaker 2: last couple of years. And for whatever it's worth, you know,

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Speaker 2: the Titans had what nine sacks in that playoff game

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Speaker 2: two years ago, and even last year they held them

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Speaker 2: to just twenty points, so you know, he's had success

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Speaker 2: against Burrow. So whatever the combination is, I think that

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Speaker 2: the new talent and you know, the coaching and whatever

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Speaker 2: the Browns have against Burrow, I think is a good

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Speaker 2: combo here. And I think it all makes for a

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Speaker 2: good play on the Browns, right.

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Speaker 1: One, Colonel, you said, in their teams that made the

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Speaker 1: playoffs facing teams that didn't, obviously the casual better and

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Speaker 1: Vegas knows that they're going to gravitate towards the team

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Speaker 1: that made the playoffs, Pittsburgh. San Francisco is interesting because

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Speaker 1: you know San Franze Road favored against Tomlin. Tomlin is

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Speaker 1: a home go which we know historically has been awesome.

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Speaker 3: I don't know. I've liked pitt irrationally this season.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you're as high on them as I am,

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Speaker 1: but I like them in this game. I think they

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Speaker 1: win outright at home against San Francisco. Brock Purty, welcome

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Speaker 1: back from your offseason surgery. You get to face TJ. Watt,

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Speaker 1: and we know without Watt last year that defense was abysmal.

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Speaker 1: I think I'll never forget. I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: were with me, but Steelers Raiders in Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: TJ.

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Speaker 1: Watt gets hurt like late first half, and I was

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Speaker 1: feeling fine about the game, and then of course no

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Speaker 1: Watts second half and Cars just slinging it all over

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Speaker 1: and the Steelers get destroyed, and that was like a

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Speaker 1: poortend of things to come.

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Speaker 3: They think they're not great without Wat.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I've got some aging guys in the secondary. Patrick Peterson,

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Speaker 1: I do like Pittsburgh Week one though, against the Niners.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I hear you, and I could I

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Speaker 2: could be on board with that. You know, the game

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Speaker 2: opened three and a half, when the season st or

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Speaker 2: when the offseason started down to what two to two

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Speaker 2: and a half. I like them in a teaser. I

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Speaker 2: put them in a teaser. We could talk about you know,

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Speaker 2: Green Bay, but I put them in a teaser with

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Speaker 2: the Packers. The call at a long teaser advantage teaser

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Speaker 2: when you can get six points on both sides and

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Speaker 2: get over two key numbers of three and seven. So

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Speaker 2: if to me, that is a good teaser leg and

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Speaker 2: I you know, you essentially need the you know, Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: to win outright, which you know is never easy against

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Speaker 2: a great San Francisco roster. Yeah, you got Brock Purty

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Speaker 2: in a tough environment in Pittsburgh. You know, last year,

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Speaker 2: as good as he played, he didn't really face adverse situations.

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Speaker 2: I think the one that you can kind of compare

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Speaker 2: is maybe that Seattle game on a Thursday night and

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Speaker 2: he he didn't do much. It was all Christian McCaffrey

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Speaker 2: in the run game. They didn't do much on offense.

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Speaker 2: It's a tough environment. So uh and against Watton that

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Speaker 2: that front four, I think this is gonna they're gonna

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Speaker 2: give him problems. You know, Nick Bosa has not signed yet,

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Speaker 2: and who knows, you know, what's going on there. Who

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Speaker 2: knows a phill even play. I mean, at this stage

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Speaker 2: you're talking about like what you know, five days away,

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Speaker 2: six days away from from from a game. Even if

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Speaker 2: he does sign and and just hold out this week,

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Speaker 2: how many snaps was he gonna get. I think that's

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Speaker 2: a big factor, you know. I think that gets you.

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Speaker 2: That's probably why this line went from three to two

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Speaker 2: and a half, you know, because Bosa is a big deal.

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Speaker 2: And I just think that the if you look at

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Speaker 2: the Niners offensive line, it wasn't great to begin with.

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Speaker 2: They lose Mike McGlinchey on the right side. It's not

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Speaker 2: that you know, Trent Williams is awesome on the left side,

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Speaker 2: but there's really nothing else on that line that you'll love.

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Speaker 2: I think that the defense for where Pittsburgh will keep them,

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Speaker 2: you know, under wraps, will put pressure on Purty and

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Speaker 2: I think that that does enough, you know, offensively that

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Speaker 2: I don't love the Steelers offense. I think Pikett, you know,

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Speaker 2: he got lucky a little bit last year. He wasn't

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Speaker 2: great on early downs, but third and fourth downs he

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Speaker 2: was top five in the NFL late in the year

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Speaker 2: and converted, Yeah, he converted a lot of third, high leverage,

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Speaker 2: third and fourth down situations, especially with his legs. You know,

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Speaker 2: they didn't do much on first downs the second downs,

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Speaker 2: but when it was like third and five, third and six,

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Speaker 2: you know he would he would just get the first

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Speaker 2: down with his legs or you know, converted through the air.

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Speaker 2: He did a really nice job. Those things are not

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Speaker 2: necessarily sustainable term, but I think that they improved the

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Speaker 2: offensive line a lot in the offseason. They signed veteran

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Speaker 2: guard Isaac c Omalo from the Eagles. You know, they

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Speaker 2: drafted Broderick Jones, who knows a phil starter or not,

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Speaker 2: but you know they've got good offensive line pieces. We

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Speaker 2: know they've got good weapons with Deontay Johnson and George Pickens.

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Speaker 2: I like Pat fryarm Ruth a lot. They signed Alan Robinson.

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Speaker 2: They've got enough weapons on offense, and we saw Jalen

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Speaker 2: Warren that big touchdown run in preseason. The offense should

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Speaker 2: be fine. I think they'll do good enough. Like I said,

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Speaker 2: I like them in a teaser leg. I think it's

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Speaker 2: going to be a toss up game. I can I

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Speaker 2: understand your side taking Pittsburgh, but for me, I feel

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Speaker 2: more comfortable, you know, getting eight and a half when

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Speaker 2: Tomlin just doesn't get blown out a lot in general,

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Speaker 2: you know, and in terms of you know, I've got

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Speaker 2: thirty two games without Big Ben as a starter. With Tomlin,

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Speaker 2: the Steelers are twenty and twelve against the spread and

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Speaker 2: twelve and five against the spread as an underdog. So

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Speaker 2: he does a good job of, you know, propping these

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Speaker 2: guys up. And to me just you know, kind of

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Speaker 2: a little little safer on the teaser leg. But I

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Speaker 2: understand your line of thinking here.

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Speaker 1: Eagles paid is interesting. I think the line just went

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Speaker 1: down from four to three and a half. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if that's a new thing. I'm just surprised, Like

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Speaker 1: Eagles going on the road, I know a lot of newness,

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Speaker 1: new OC new DC Hurts gets paid. But have you

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Speaker 1: looked at this Patriots offensive line issue. It sounds like

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Speaker 1: they may start a fourth round rookie on right tackle

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Speaker 1: and then you're going against a defensive line that like

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Speaker 1: broke an NFL record for sacks. The interior of the

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Speaker 1: line seems like it's got some nagging injuries. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if this is Belichick with the gamesmanship signing two

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Speaker 1: tackles here in the last week, but if they've got

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Speaker 1: major injuries. Mac Jones, the Eagles are not the team

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Speaker 1: you want to face.

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Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't want to take a road.

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Speaker 1: Favorite here in Week one, but anything on Eagles Patriots

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Speaker 1: jump out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I think they have the toughest schedule

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. The Patriots too, And obviously this is

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Speaker 2: one of them starting at home against against the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: You know, typically Belichick's defense, they've done it, especially the

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Speaker 2: last couple of years. They're awesome against bad quarterbacks, right,

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Speaker 2: like they just suffocate. If you're a rookie or if

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Speaker 2: you're just a poor quarterback, like you have no shot

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Speaker 2: against this Belichick defense. But when you face a mobile quarterback,

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Speaker 2: they struggle. They struggle a lot. Last year. You remember

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Speaker 2: Justin Fields put up that thirty three points on that

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Speaker 2: Monday night as big, big underdogs and they blew out

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Speaker 2: the Patriots. We see it every year with Josh Allen

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Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson had one of his best games of his

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Speaker 2: season last year against New England. So you know, they're

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Speaker 2: kind of a they're splits when they face a good

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Speaker 2: and kind of mobile quarterbacks versus poor ones are pretty drastic,

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Speaker 2: So obviously hurts is in that mobile quarterback category. So

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Speaker 2: from that perspective, I would normally I would normally back

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Speaker 2: Philly here if this was a mid season game. But

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Speaker 2: being that it's Week one and you give Belichick all

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Speaker 2: off season to prepare for hurts in this offense, it

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Speaker 2: you know, tilts to the defense's favor a little bit more.

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Speaker 2: And obviously, you know, we talked about just you know,

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Speaker 2: home dogs in general, not necessarily in division, but just

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Speaker 2: home was in general. I think, you know, are those

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Speaker 2: are teams that the market likes to back, as we

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Speaker 2: talked about. So I think that's why they're getting a

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Speaker 2: little bit of support. You know, I think that there's

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Speaker 2: some of that there. And again Belichick gets it. You

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Speaker 2: get a little tax with Belichick, right, even though they've

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Speaker 2: struggled lately, you get a little bit of tax. I

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Speaker 2: will say mac Jones has really struggled as an underdog

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Speaker 2: against the spread since he's come, you know, since he's

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Speaker 2: been in the league. You look since two thousand and

401
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Speaker 2: or since twenty twenty, which is post Brady new England

402
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Speaker 2: is nine and thirteen against the spread in six and

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Speaker 2: sixteen straight up as underdogs, and mac Jones has been really,

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Speaker 2: really poor, you know for many of those. So it's

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Speaker 2: not it's not a game that I would love to

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Speaker 2: back either way. I think I can through both sides,

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Speaker 2: and you know, could absolutely see Philly get up early

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Speaker 2: and then you know Mac Jones come up with some

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Speaker 2: backdoor late to cover the three points, and you really think.

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Speaker 1: That's last year it didn't seemed like the Patriots had

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Speaker 1: a lot ta when when they needed to come from behind,

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Speaker 1: Like they just weren't capable of that. They weren't capable

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Speaker 1: of beating good teams. Yeah, the offense is like plotting.

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Speaker 1: Now maybe that changes with Bill O'Brien. I don't know,

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Speaker 1: are you as high on him as everyone else all

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Speaker 1: bill O'Brien's going to save the day.

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Speaker 2: No, I just think it's you can't get any worse

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Speaker 2: than Matt Patricia last year. I think that's that's all

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Speaker 2: it is. I mean, when you look, it's so funny

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Speaker 2: with the new England team, you wouldn't expect this, but

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Speaker 2: you know they were. They led the NFL in I

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Speaker 2: think it was, oh gosh, I had it here. They

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Speaker 2: led the NFL either false starts or delay of games

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Speaker 2: on offense. It's like something that you don't normally see

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Speaker 2: from a from a Belichick coach defense, and that is

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Speaker 2: all batt Patricia like they I remember all the times

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Speaker 2: that mac Jones would look over to the sideline like,

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Speaker 2: you know, hurry up with the play, like what's going on.

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Speaker 2: So I think if you just eliminate some of that

430
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 2: and you get a little bit more professionalism from the

431
00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 2: offensive side of the ball, you know, they could be

432
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 2: they'll be feisty. I don't like them at all just

433
00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 2: because of their schedule and like you said, they're they're

434
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,119
Speaker 2: underperforming against some of the good teams. So this is

435
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 2: just one of those that I don't necessarily love either way.

436
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 2: I could I could see Philly just blowing them out

437
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 2: and be like, oh my god, that was just kind

438
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,200
Speaker 2: of right in front of our eyes and we didn't

439
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,360
Speaker 2: pay attention. But you know, when you give Belichick all

440
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 2: off season to prepare for Hurts in this offense, that's

441
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 2: the only thing that kind of gets me to, you know,

442
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,159
Speaker 2: kind of stay off at a little bit. Is just

443
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 2: that and the fact that you know Hurts didn't play

444
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 2: in the preseason. He's one of those guys. For whatever

445
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 2: it's worth, again, none of this is blind, but he

446
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 2: didn't play it all in the preseason, didn't take a snap.

447
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 2: Who knows new offensive coordinator. You just never know with

448
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 2: a kind of a new system. But it's a pass

449
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 2: for me either way.

450
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 1: Interesting the not playing in the preseason, Lamar Jackson, I

451
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 1: never does. But one of the great things I got

452
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:45,000
Speaker 1: from your awesome preview was this irrational excitement about the

453
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 1: Ravens offensive potential under this monk in from Georgia.

454
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 3: And it's weird because, yeah, I look at the Ravens defense.

455
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 1: I'm like, this is a bad, sneaky, bad defense. Like

456
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,400
Speaker 1: if you look in the division, they have the fourth

457
00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:00,119
Speaker 1: best defense, Browns, Bengals, Steelers all better. All the name

458
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: guys are gone. You got an injury to Humphrey. Like,

459
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 1: I don't know, this defense looks bad. And then I

460
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 1: see them as nine and a half ten point favorites

461
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 1: against the Texans, and the Texans are cutting a bunch

462
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 1: of veterans and you see they're playing young guys, and

463
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 1: I'm like, what, I don't know what to.

464
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:13,159
Speaker 3: Make of it.

465
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: The Texans apparently have four offensive linemen could be out

466
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 1: Week one, a lot of injuries, and again maybe it's

467
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 1: preseason and positioning and jostling, but everything to me screams hardball.

468
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 1: But again, you know, am I taking a nine and

469
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,360
Speaker 1: a half point favorite on the road in Week one?

470
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 1: Probably not?

471
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, And by the way, week one favorites over a

472
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 2: touchdown or eighteen and thirty two against a spread thirty

473
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 2: six percent since two thousand, So just an FYI, like

474
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,640
Speaker 2: that's again week one, we usually the market knows. Well,

475
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 2: think about it. What happens later in the season when

476
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 2: you've got a bad team. There's there's injuries, there's attrition everywhere. Right,

477
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 2: That's where the good teams kind of shine because they

478
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 2: have more depth, whereas the bad teams can't afford those injuries,

479
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 2: and you just really start to get to guys that are,

480
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 2: you know, off the street level. But first game of

481
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 2: the year typically you get these bad teams have all

482
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: their their fire powers, so they should be a little

483
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 2: bit better than you know, what you'd see later in

484
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 2: the year. So that's something I got to keep in mind.

485
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 2: Week one, everybody's typically healthy. Again, you just mentioned a

486
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 2: couple of alignemen are out. I know Tyas Howard for

487
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 2: the right side, the right tackle for for Houston's out,

488
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:20,159
Speaker 2: so that could be a big deal. You got a

489
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback c J. Stroud behind him, so that that's

490
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 2: an issue. You know. I actually I haven't taken anything yet.

491
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 2: I would look at the over a little bit because

492
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 2: I think the Baltimore offense is really going to be

493
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,919
Speaker 2: able to move the ball. I think I love Todd Monkin,

494
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 2: I love this's going to push the ball down the

495
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 2: field a lot more. Still use some of the RPO

496
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 2: stuff with Lamar, but you know they've got weapons all

497
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 2: over the field. Now. Zave Flowers, everybody's talking about how

498
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 2: great he's been in camp. He showed he scored that

499
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 2: touchdown in the Monday night game against Washington. Yeah, he's

500
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 2: got some juice to him. OBJ doesn't have to be,

501
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 2: you know, a superstar number one. He just has to

502
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 2: be a good veteran, you know, leader, arride receiver. And

503
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 2: you know you still got Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews, like,

504
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 2: You've got plenty of weapons to push down the field.

505
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 2: And so I'm excited for this offense in general. And

506
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 2: I think that the Ravens defense, like you mentioned, they

507
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 2: do have probably the worst defense in the division. They

508
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 2: had to sign to Jadavian Clowney because they don't really

509
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 2: have a pass rush tyas Bowser is out, so you know,

510
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 2: he's probably their best pass rusher at this point.

511
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 3: They lost Justin Good.

512
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know Marlon Humphrey, who's a really good corner,

513
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 2: he's out for this game. They've got Rakya sin is

514
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 2: their number two corner. He's questionable. So there's a lot

515
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 2: of holes. I mean, I wish if the Houston offensive

516
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 2: line was fully healthy, even with the rookie quarterback, I

517
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 2: would be looking at them to cover here. I just

518
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 2: with all those you know, injuries, and with with c J.

519
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 2: Stroud and not looking great in the preseason in a

520
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 2: tough environment, I just can't get myself to back Houston.

521
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 2: But if I had to, I would take their side.

522
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 2: But I just you know, I think there's gonna be

523
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 2: a decent amount of points here, so I would look

524
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 2: to the over if anything. But you know, this is

525
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 2: a no play for me.

526
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 1: Didn't the Ravens smack the Dolphins like fifty nine to

527
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: nothing in Week one a couple of years ago, something

528
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: I've seen and Hardball's known to like. I mean, he's

529
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 1: a great coach, almost underrated. I just worry if the

530
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 1: Texans fall behind, like say fourteen to three, you know,

531
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:17,719
Speaker 1: and you got to take away the running game appears

532
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, Stroud's got to go to

533
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 1: the air. I don't feel great, but again, like you said,

534
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 1: favorites over a touchdown super risky.

535
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 2: By the way, real quick, with that Week one you

536
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,159
Speaker 2: mentioned in Miami, Lamar Jackson is three to one against

537
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 2: the spread in the last five years in Week one,

538
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 2: they've He's covered the spread by over sixteen points per game.

539
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 2: They've averaged thirty seven points per game. He's a number two.

540
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 2: I mean, Mahomes is in a different stratosphere in Week one,

541
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 2: but Lamar is the second best quarterback in the NFL

542
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: in Week ones in the last five years.

543
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 1: For whatever it's worth, it feels like it could be

544
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: a game like you like Monk, And I'll be honest, guys,

545
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:51,239
Speaker 1: ta side, I'm not pushing it too much.

546
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 3: Will give you a discount in a minute.

547
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: But like you were the one who got me to

548
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 1: draft Lamar Jackson in like two of my fantasy leagues

549
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: because you think he could put up massive points and

550
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 1: stats and be like an MVP candidate.

551
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 3: I didn't see it.

552
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: But again, this is why I lean on you know

553
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 1: guys who see stuff maybe I don't. I just wonder

554
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 1: if monk it's coming out, we're.

555
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 3: Gonna shock some people.

556
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: We're gonna drop a forty burger and this is like

557
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: forty to thirteen and you miss a layup that there

558
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 1: is my there's some concern about that.

559
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 3: Anything on rookie quarterbacks in week one.

560
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 1: I know Bryce Young could be in trouble of the

561
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: Carolina line, but any any historical numbers on rookie quarterbacks in.

562
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: Week one, you know, I did look that up a

563
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago, and there wasn't really anything definitive,

564
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 2: to be honest, you know, it's kind of a mixed bag,

565
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 2: you know, just kind of kind of fifty to fifty

566
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 2: when it comes to cover percentage and team totals, like

567
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,199
Speaker 2: you don't really get too much. There's some I mean,

568
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 2: if you remember, there's some outliers on the good RG

569
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: three went into New Orleans week one and just destroyed

570
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 2: the Saints. That's why Marcus Marcus Mariota put up like

571
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 2: forty points as a rookie against Tampa. You had in

572
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 2: week one on the road, you had Sam Darnold. I mean,

573
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 2: I know the defense were too, but they've put up

574
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 2: like they put up like forty nine against thes on

575
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 2: that Monday night, So you've got outlier performances like that,

576
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,440
Speaker 2: and then you have a bunch of duds as well.

577
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's kind of it's kind of a mixed bag.

578
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 2: But I will say with the Lamar thing real quick,

579
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 2: the reason I like him for fantasy too, not only

580
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 2: is the offense gonna be a lot better. He's never

581
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 2: had weapons like this, He's never had an offensive coordinator

582
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 2: who wants to push it down the field. But as

583
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 2: we mentioned, the defense stinks, so they're gonna be in

584
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 2: a lot of shootouts, so they're not gonna be sitting

585
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 2: on the ball. They're gonna be pushing it. They're gonna

586
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 2: need the score. So that's why I like him from

587
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 2: a fantasy perspective is just because you know you got

588
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 2: the offense is gonna be better, the weapons are better,

589
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 2: the coordinator's better, and you're gonna be in a lot

590
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: more shootouts, so they're gonna be a lot more. There's

591
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot more throwing, I think from the

592
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 2: Ravens this year. So I would put him kind of

593
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 2: in my top four from the fantasy perspective, and I

594
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: think he's if you miss on the top three, you know,

595
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 2: Alan Mahomes, Earth's perfectly fine. Taken Lamar a little bit later.

596
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 1: I actually had a guy the day after the draft

597
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 1: say would you trade Lamar Jackson?

598
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 3: And I was like, did he read TA?

599
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 1: I was like, no, I'm not trading Lamar Jackson. Anyways,

600
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 1: two quick ones before we get to the Jets. Number

601
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:06,719
Speaker 1: one Arizona Cardinals. That line has gone up. Washington I

602
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 1: think was five and now it's at seven. Listen, we

603
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 1: don't want to reveal all your info, but you know

604
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 1: the Cardinals pretty well.

605
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 3: Seven seems like a.

606
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 1: Big number for Washington to be laying. But Arizona looks

607
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 1: very bad. It looks like they're win total for the

608
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 1: seasons down to three and a half. Josh Dobbs against

609
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 1: a potentially nasty Washington front Chase Young.

610
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 3: You're in Ohio state.

611
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 1: Guy Chase Young is gonna be looking. He needs to

612
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: get paid. He didn't get the fifth year extension. This

613
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 1: could be a Washington spot b enemy, you know, maybe

614
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 1: opening up Sam Howell. I thought Sam Howell looked competent

615
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 1: in the preseason. I don't know, but a touchdowns a

616
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 1: big number for Ron Rivera.

617
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, And there's a lot of push on the

618
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 2: on the Washington side here. Yeah. You know, look, I

619
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 2: think Arizona has got a little bit of a I

620
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,439
Speaker 2: don't think they're tanking. I know it surprises people when

621
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 2: I say that, but you know, to me, there's difference

622
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 2: between kind of cleaning up the mess when you get

623
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 2: there and outright trying to lose. I mean, Colt McCoy

624
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 2: was unplayable and they cut him and noticed nobody signed him,

625
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 2: so like they're trying to be competent. And Josh Stobbs

626
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:12,919
Speaker 2: is a guy they tried to sign in the off

627
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 2: season from the Browns. The offensive coordinator, Drew Petsick was

628
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 2: a quarterback coach in Cleveland, so they had the familiarity.

629
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 2: You know, he chose the Browns over them, and then

630
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 2: you know was able. You know, they were able to

631
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 2: trade for him because dtr had such a good, good preseason.

632
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 2: But you know, he's mobile. He almost won that game

633
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 2: in Week eighteen last year, if you remember, kind of

634
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 2: coming off the street in Jacksonville. They're they're winning in

635
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. So he's he's not great, but he's

636
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: at least he can move a little bit, he can

637
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: do some things. They're they're just biding their time for Kyler,

638
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 2: or they don't know when Kyler Murry is gonna come back.

639
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 2: He's on pup list. I think, you know, kind of

640
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 2: week five to eight is probably the most logical target. Look,

641
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 2: if they sit him all year, then then yeah, you

642
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 2: can sit there and say they're tanking. But I would

643
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 2: be stunned if he missed more than half the season.

644
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 2: And you know, I think I think they want to look.

645
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 2: Jonathan gam was hired for and Manti Austin Austin Forth

646
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 2: the GM. They were hired to clean up the mess

647
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 2: that Steve Kaint brought in front of them in Arizona.

648
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 2: I mean the constant drafting of linebackers for one, So

649
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 2: they used they use their first round pick on Isaiah

650
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: Simmons and Xavin Collins and back to back years, you know,

651
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 2: essentially both our bus especially Isaiah Simmons, they traded at

652
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 2: number one for Hollywood Brown. I mean they Coulick got

653
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 2: aj Brown for number one. Remember that was the same

654
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 2: exact draft. If they could have tossed a little bit

655
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 2: more into the pot, they could have gotten you know,

656
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 2: could have gotten aj Brown. They he signed a bunch

657
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 2: of high priced veterans that were towards the end of

658
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 2: the career, like JJ Watt, Like none of these things worked.

659
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 2: He never had a competent offensive line, just did everything

660
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 2: opposite of what you're supposed to do. The salary cap

661
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 2: is a complete mess. They were completely void of draft

662
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 2: picks this season and going forward. So they hired a

663
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 2: new regime to completely clean everything up in the locker room.

664
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 2: Get guys who want who are gonna play hard, who

665
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 2: want to be there. They got rid of a lot

666
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 2: of the dead weight when it comes to you know,

667
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 2: salary cap and just you know, again not wanting to

668
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 2: be there, you know, aka DeAndre Hopkins. They they they

669
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 2: pulled off a heist in that trade with Houston to

670
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 2: get their number one pick next year along with all

671
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 2: those other picks. They used a top ten pick on

672
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 2: right tackle Paris Johnson will eventually be a left tackle.

673
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 2: That's exactly what you want to do, Like, you need

674
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 2: to rebuild this offensive line. So I think they're doing

675
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 2: things the right way. They're not just spending there's no

676
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: reason they should have spent, you know on these these

677
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: one year, two year you know, veterans and you know,

678
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 2: completely botch your salary cap. Again, there's no reason for it,

679
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: like just this is a transition year. So I think

680
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 2: there's a difference between that and what they're doing and

681
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 2: just completely trying to lose like some of these teams

682
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 2: have done in the past. So we'll see what happens.

683
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 2: I think they'll play hard. I think they've got enough

684
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 2: guys in there who are playing for their next contracts

685
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 2: and are younger guys that will play hard. They just

686
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 2: don't have the talent. I mean, I would say, if

687
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 2: you want a piece of advice, a little kind of

688
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 2: free advice, play Brian Robinson this week in DFS look

689
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 2: at some of his prop numbers. The running back for Washington.

690
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 2: The one area I know internally that Arizona is really

691
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 2: worried about is there is the middle of their defensive line.

692
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 2: It's a real real sieve they're gonna be able to

693
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 2: run the ball up and down the field on them.

694
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 2: So take that for what it's worth. But I do

695
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: like what they're doing. I mean, I think even if

696
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: you think that they're tanking, they're building something right there,

697
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 2: and they could have the top two. They could have

698
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 2: the top two picks and potentially have Kyler Murray you know,

699
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 2: who knows if someone will trade for him. You know,

700
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 2: he could have that trade asset. They would probably be

701
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 2: okay just get you know, if they decide to go

702
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,959
Speaker 2: that route and take Kaylob Williams or Drake May you know,

703
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 2: trade them for you know, for a couple of picks,

704
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 2: even if their mid round picks, just to get the

705
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 2: salary off the books. You know, that's in play. They're

706
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,479
Speaker 2: building it the right way. So I think, you know,

707
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 2: they'll be feisty, maybe kind of like the you know,

708
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 2: Dan Campbell Lions were a couple of years ago. But

709
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 2: you know, I don't think they'll get a lot of wins.

710
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 2: But I think they'll be feisty, and I wouldn't touch

711
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 2: Week one. Like you said, I think it's gonna be

712
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 2: a slug fest. I think they're gonna go slow on offense.

713
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 2: They're gonna run the ball. I think defensively, Jonathan Ganin's

714
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 2: defense is to keep everything in front of you, limit

715
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 2: explosive plays. So they're gonna force Sam Howell to kind

716
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 2: of dink and dunk and they're gonna, you know, use force.

717
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 2: Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson to run the ball, so

718
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: I think they'll take time off the clock. So I

719
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 2: think this is gonna be a lower scoring kind of

720
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 2: seventeen ten, seventeen thirteen type games. So that that'stimation for

721
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 2: Week one.

722
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 1: Again small scale, but like Eric B. Enemy was the

723
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator in the Super Bowl, Gannon was the DC

724
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: Eagles fans were so upset at him because of that

725
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 1: second half.

726
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 3: The Chiefs just move the ball up and down the field.

727
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: But does the Enemy get any credit for that or

728
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: do we expect him to have some intimate knowledge of

729
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: what Gannon wants to do, because since a lot of

730
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: people say it was Andy Reid's game plan all the time.

731
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the million dollar question, Like nobody knows. I

732
00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 2: think there's a reason why Eric B. Enemy has not

733
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: moved up, right, there's you know, if you talk to

734
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: people around the league and they won't say it publicly,

735
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 2: but they'll say it privately. Because I've heard that heard

736
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 2: these things. There's a reason why at the Enemy has

737
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 2: not gotten a head coaching job. It's just is what

738
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 2: it is. I mean, he's just he doesn't doesn't do

739
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 2: great in interviews, he doesn't get the credit that you

740
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 2: know for the offense. We know it's Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid.

741
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 2: There's just a lot of things he rubs. He rubs

742
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 2: players the wrong way. You already saw it. Ron Rivera

743
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 2: was complaining, you know, a few weeks in the training game.

744
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 2: So I have no idea, like, I'm sure he's he's

745
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 2: there's something that had to have rubbed off on him

746
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,959
Speaker 2: that he can put, you know, install into this offense.

747
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 2: I just you know, that's always a question mark. I mean,

748
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 2: remember Adam Gase was the guy who got credit for

749
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 2: Peyton Hanning in Denver, right, and look what happened in

750
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 2: Miami and New York. So like it doesn't you know,

751
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 2: those things don't always translate. So I would kind of

752
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 2: lean on this not being a high powered offense, but

753
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 2: you know, you just never know until it happens real quick.

754
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: Falcons Panthers. A lot of people have come on this

755
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: podcas as you work with Warren Sharp before anothers have

756
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: said Falcons are the team.

757
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 3: The schedule, it's all about the schedule.

758
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: I don't I don't did Desmond Rider do anything in

759
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: the preseason because I don't know what to expect from

760
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,359
Speaker 1: this offense. A lot of people seem to think their

761
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 1: Falcons are going to dominate. Like I drafted him in

762
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:17,760
Speaker 1: fantasy defensive the people are stunned.

763
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 3: I kind of like them.

764
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 1: But Week one against the Panthers, do they have the

765
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 1: pass rush to Rattlebryce Young who got his butt kicked

766
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 1: in the preseason and Frank Reraich, I think is bad

767
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: like a history of struggling badly in the season openers.

768
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 1: And I don't know, I don't I don't think the

769
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 1: pants are there, but their defense could keep them in it, right.

770
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually have full disclosure your subscriber, so you

771
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,240
Speaker 2: know I actually posted. You know, I took under forty

772
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 2: two and a half. It's about two weeks ago. And

773
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,399
Speaker 2: then the next day the right angle. The right angle

774
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: sports guys took it as well, and it dropped down

775
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 2: to I think it's thirty nine and a half now,

776
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 2: So I would not play it. I mean, you know,

777
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,479
Speaker 2: I think forty two is a key number. Forty's key number,

778
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 2: so you know, thirty nine and a half, I would

779
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 2: not touch it here. I just think I would air

780
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 2: on the side of this. Being again, I think the

781
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 2: Carolina defense is pretty good obviously, I mean the Brian

782
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,439
Speaker 2: Burns situation is something to keep an eye on. He's

783
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,919
Speaker 2: technically you know, I don't know if he's holding out

784
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: this week, but there sounds like I saw something about

785
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 2: how he you know, he it might be contract concerns,

786
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 2: so who knows that. I would keep keep an eye

787
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 2: on that. But yeah, the Carolina defense is pretty solid.

788
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 2: The one thing they do very well is they stopped

789
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: the run. They had a very tough schedule of opposing

790
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 2: run offenses last year that they stymied, and so I

791
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 2: think they'll be able to keep this Atlanta offense and check.

792
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 2: Like you said, Richard didn't really impress me at all

793
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: last year. He had He faced a bunch of you know,

794
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 2: kind of layup situations. He faced Tampa and Week eighteen

795
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 2: when they weren't playing for anything and played all their

796
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 2: backup defenders. He faced the Cardinals in Week seventeen when

797
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,359
Speaker 2: they were you know, essentially you know, sitting everybody out.

798
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 2: I think Buddha Baker was sitting out. They had nobody

799
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 2: really that that of meaning, and so like, he had

800
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 2: a lot of easy situations and couldn't really do much

801
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 2: with them. You know, in New Orleans, I don't think

802
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 2: they scored a touchdown in uh in Baltimore scored nine points,

803
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 2: So it didn't really do much to impress me. And

804
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 2: I think they're just gonna kind of keep be conservative,

805
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 2: kind of hit the hit the layups with Kyle Pitts

806
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 2: and Drake London. They're gonna, you know, use b John

807
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: Robinson a lot. They're gonna run the ball. I think

808
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 2: they're gonna try to get a lead early and then

809
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 2: sit on it. So I think this is a you know,

810
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 2: conservative game plan. It's a lower scoring game. This line

811
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 2: went from what two and a half to is it

812
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,439
Speaker 2: sitting at three and a half now? I think and yeah, yeah,

813
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: I mean I I again, Bryce Young did not impress

814
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 2: me in the preseason. It's tough for him to go right,

815
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 2: you know, right away. He doesn't have the mobility of

816
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: a Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson some of these other

817
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: smaller quarterbacks who can produce right away. He's got to

818
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 2: sit in the pocket. He can move a little bit,

819
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 2: but that's not his game and it's not easy to

820
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 2: win from the pocket. As a rookie. You don't usually

821
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: see that, especially someone who's who's kind of his you know,

822
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,479
Speaker 2: at his stature. So we'll see. He eventually could figure

823
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 2: it out. But I think Week one is a tough spot,

824
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: and you know, I think Atlanta just you know, Atlanta

825
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 2: gets to win. I just don't know if I would,

826
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 2: I wouldn't take over field. Boy, this is way too

827
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 2: late to the party. But I'm not as high in

828
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 2: them as others. I do understand the schedule situation, but

829
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 2: you know, at some point you have to have a

830
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,959
Speaker 2: quarterback like backing backing a guy like Desmond Ritter who

831
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 2: may not be a starting NFL quarterback, you know, to

832
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 2: to win the division. Like I've heard some people say

833
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:26,759
Speaker 2: that's not that's not enough for me. I think the

834
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 2: defense is better, but they're not. They're not great like

835
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,399
Speaker 2: they you know, Kalays Campbell's old. He's thirty seven years old. Yeah,

836
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 2: Bud Dupree is their top pass rusher, like he's been

837
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 2: mediocre the last couple of years since he left Pittsburgh.

838
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 2: I don't. I mean, Jesse Bates is a good in

839
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 2: one of their top you know, free agent signings. He's

840
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 2: a safety. He doesn't really move the needle. Safeties don't

841
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 2: don't don't move the needles much. So I think they're improved.

842
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:52,319
Speaker 2: I just don't think they're great overall, the.

843
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 1: Wide receivers of Carolina are they They're not great.

844
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 3: Is dealing their number one? I don't.

845
00:37:57,960 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 1: I don't know that they're good. And I'm looking aj

846
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 1: Terrell and Jeff Akuda.

847
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 3: I know you like Akuda.

848
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: He's had a rough start to his career, but like,

849
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 1: I don't know, I Carolina could be bad offensively.

850
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 2: Man. Yeah, that's anyway I want to did not do

851
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 2: them any favors. They didn't, you know. Andam Thalan is

852
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 2: just a possession receiver now, he has no explosiveness. DJ

853
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 2: Chark is supposed to be their deep threat. He's already

854
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 2: hurt and he's had a career of injuries. So yeah,

855
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 2: they didn't do him any favors adding weapons.

856
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 3: All right, we'll wrap up with my Jets. Obviously I

857
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 3: care about them intimately.

858
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: We've had the longest we have had the longest postseason

859
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 1: drought of anyone. You get Rogers, you get Dalvin Cook.

860
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: There's reason to be excited. Schedule the first six weeks.

861
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 1: He's going to tell the story. I hate the fact

862
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 1: that several people have come on this pod and said

863
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: Buffalo is the play in Week one, the line has

864
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 1: gone toward the Jets from three to one, but that

865
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 1: could just be. Sorry, a lot of money in the

866
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 1: New York area going to fan duel and all those

867
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 1: whatever they are maybe shifting the market. Where are you

868
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 1: a Jets, Bills and b Jets over over overview.

869
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 2: You know, I don't have a play on the week one.

870
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 2: I think it's it's lined exactly right. There's so much,

871
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 2: just so much intriguing, and I just don't know what

872
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 2: to make of the Jets. Like one day I'll sit

873
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 2: there and be like, you know, their defense was elite

874
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,799
Speaker 2: last year and they didn't force any turnovers at all,

875
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 2: Like they were one of the worst teams in the NFL.

876
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 2: And you know, turnovers are flimsy year to year, right,

877
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 2: Like they're very variable. You know, sometimes it's just a

878
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 2: bounce of the ball. So if they got a few more,

879
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 2: you know, if you if you assume some regression with

880
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 2: the defense from a turnover perspective, like they could be

881
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 2: the best defense in the NFL. At the same time,

882
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 2: literally nobody got hurt on their defense, Like their entire

883
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 2: secondary was healthy. I think their top three corners obviously

884
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 2: including saut Garden or DJ Reid et cetera. Didn't miss

885
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 2: a single game. CJ. Mosley didn't miss a game. Quinn

886
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 2: Williams I think missed one game. Like, what are the

887
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 2: odds that all of that's gonna happen again? So, you know,

888
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 2: I kind of go back and forth on the defense,

889
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:50,840
Speaker 2: They're probably gonna be really good. I just don't know

890
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 2: exactly how good and can they Can they produce the

891
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 2: same levels last year? There'll be a question. Obviously we

892
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 2: know Robert Solid could coach defense, So I think they'll

893
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 2: be I'm gonna kind of tilt on the side of

894
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 2: they'll be really good. And then offensively, look, the offensive

895
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 2: line is a problem. That is something that you can't

896
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 2: You can't hide a bad offensive line, no matter who

897
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 2: your quarterback is. We saw that with Patrick Mahomes in

898
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl against Tampa a few years ago. Right,

899
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,399
Speaker 2: So you know, with a guy like Aaron Rodgers who's

900
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 2: used to having a top ten offensive line, can he

901
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 2: produce when he's not getting the time that he's used to.

902
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 2: I'm not sure. You know, Garrett Wilson, I love him.

903
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 2: He's an Ohio State guy. You know, I think they've

904
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 2: got plenty of weapons on the outside Dalvin Cook, like

905
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 2: you mentioned with Breese Hall, is a really nice one

906
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 2: two punch. I just don't know how explosive they could

907
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 2: be if they can't If they can't get McKai Beckton playing,

908
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 2: I mean, you need McKai Beckton to be you know,

909
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 2: the top you know, a top tackle, and you need

910
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 2: health on that offensive line. If you get it, you

911
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 2: know there's upside there. Dwayne Brown's got you know, he's

912
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 2: older obviously, but he can still play a little bit.

913
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,439
Speaker 2: It's it's quite you know, it's it's it's up and down.

914
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: Like if McKai Bereckton is either hurt or if he

915
00:40:55,960 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 2: can't produce, then you're you're in trouble. But I take

916
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,320
Speaker 2: the way personally, I'm gonna play the Jets. I'm not

917
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 2: gonna do anything in Week one. I'm gonna wait and

918
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 2: see their first six games, like you mentioned, absolutely brutal.

919
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:11,280
Speaker 2: I mean, Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Denver, and Philly.

920
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 2: That's that's as tough as you'll ever see. If they

921
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 2: can go even two and four, like, I'll give it.

922
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 3: If they wait, wait with three and three. What's wrong

923
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 3: with three and three?

924
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:21,359
Speaker 2: If they go with three and three. You know, if

925
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 2: they go three and three, I would look to them

926
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 2: to win the AFC. I would look at their AFC

927
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: and Super Bowl odds because the rest of their schedules

928
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:29,359
Speaker 2: a lot, a lot better. And if you can get

929
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 2: through that gauntlet three and three, to me, then I

930
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 2: think you've got you know, you've got really really tantalizing upside.

931
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 2: And I don't know what the price will be on

932
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 2: them if they go three and three, but you'll get

933
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 2: I don't think you'll get a worse price than you've

934
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 2: got right now. I mean, there's no reason to take

935
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 2: them now because the odds of them going forward to

936
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,839
Speaker 2: five and one, six and zero is really really low, right,

937
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 2: And I'll take my chances that they can't do that

938
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 2: against this team. I mean, you got a brand new quarterback.

939
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 2: We saw with Tom Brady when he went to Tampa.

940
00:41:57,600 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 2: You know what happened the first half of that season.

941
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 2: He struggled early. So it's not easy to just we

942
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 2: saw that with Matt Ryan. Obviously he's over the hill.

943
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 2: But these veteran quarterbacks, Russell Wilson, they go to these

944
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 2: new systems right away, these new offenses. It's not easy

945
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 2: to just transition and step in and be a Hall

946
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 2: of Fame quarterback. So I would wait and give it

947
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 2: six weeks and see where they're at. If they're two

948
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 2: and four, three and three, that's what I expect, I

949
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 2: would pounce on potentially looking at you know, if you

950
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 2: can get twenty to one and twenty five to one

951
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 2: to win the super Bowl at that point, then I

952
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: would think it's it's actually worth a look.

953
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we'll know early.

954
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 1: Right, if Buffalo's defensive line without Von Miller, which is

955
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 1: kind of a big deal because last year Week one,

956
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 1: I think they sacked Stafford like nine times. So if

957
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: they struggle with the pass rush and the Jets win,

958
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 1: you feel great. If they lose and Rogers to sack

959
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,359
Speaker 1: like six times, well you're you're probably dead. Week two

960
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: against Dallas and Parsons, you know, that's a brutal Like

961
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,439
Speaker 1: those are two of the best front fours in the league.

962
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: Maybe could you say two of the top like seven

963
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 1: between Buffalo and Dallas like that.

964
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 3: That's nasty to start.

965
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 1: And then the Patriots had a top five defense last

966
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 1: year by a lot of metrics, so they've got to

967
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 1: win this opener against Buffalo. It's at home Rogers first game.

968
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I'm very excited. I'm surprised you

969
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 3: don't have a pick in that one.

970
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 2: I can't have a pick out every game. I think

971
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 2: I think it's lined right. Like, here's the thing. The

972
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 2: Jets did pretty well against Josh Allen last year.

973
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 3: You know, they did defensively.

974
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, so so I think what don't surprise me at all.

975
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 2: I just I just can't you know, first game, Like

976
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 2: I said, I mean Tom Brady, remember did he throw

977
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 2: two pick sixes in that opener against New Orleans when

978
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 2: he went to Tampa?

979
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 1: Like, oh, you're right, yes, divisional matchup?

980
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's just it's just hard

981
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 3: for sure.

982
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,799
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, it's just hard to back a quarterback in

983
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 2: that spot. And you know, it's just different, especially with

984
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 2: an offensive line like that. They're gonna they're gonna probably

985
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 2: blitz him a lot. And look, I think it's a

986
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 2: coin flip. I think it's lined the right way. And

987
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 2: you know, Buffalo is very talented. They're one of the

988
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 2: most talented teams in the league. So I think it's

989
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 2: gonna be a great game. Like, you know, I think

990
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: it could be kind of a coin flip from that perspective.

991
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, no play for me, but I think it's fun.

992
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:03,359
Speaker 3: Yeah all right.

993
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 1: Do you have an offer for listeners of straight Fire

994
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 1: on your site?

995
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 2: Yeah? So, since you've been such a good friend to

996
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 2: the to me and you kind of, like I said,

997
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 2: help me kind of rise in the ranks, I'm offering

998
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 2: anyone who uses the code Jmac Jmac to go sign

999
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: up at my website, Cleve Analytics. You'll get You'll get

1000
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 2: fifty bucks off of a full season subscription. So and

1001
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 2: like you know Jason mentioned earlier, this is not a

1002
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 2: pick site. This isn't like I'm just here are my

1003
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 2: my pick releases. This is I go through I tell

1004
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 2: you what I'm taking personally, just because people want to

1005
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 2: know what I'm on in full transparency, So I do that.

1006
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,720
Speaker 2: But I also have write ups on every single game

1007
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 2: every single week. I have, you know, Jason will a test.

1008
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 2: You've got all the matchup stats, you can look at

1009
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 2: any you know, quarterback stat, defensive stat, you know, team stat.

1010
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 2: I go through the injury reports, which is very vital

1011
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 2: when when it comes to making a wager. I do

1012
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 2: DFS analysis. I talk about some of the sleepers out

1013
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 2: there I have Survivor Analysis. I call it a one

1014
00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:00,920
Speaker 2: stop shop for degenerates. You know, the average Joe doesn't

1015
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 2: just wager on games, right like, you know, You've got

1016
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 2: a survivor entry, You've got pickpools, you've got dfs, so

1017
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 2: kind of a little bit for a little bit of

1018
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 2: everything for everyone. And this year all new tools. You

1019
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 2: could do a really good research on some of the

1020
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 2: against the spread and totals and some of the quarterback

1021
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 2: stats that take you back to two thousand. So really

1022
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 2: interesting stuff, I think, and something for everybody to do

1023
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 2: their own research.

1024
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: And what do they say, give a man of fish,

1025
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:29,720
Speaker 1: he'll eat for a day. Teach a man how to fish,

1026
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 1: and he'll eat forever. So ta great stuff. As always,

1027
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 1: thanks for taking the time, buddy, and continued success with

1028
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: the site.

1029
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 2: Thanks Jason, I appreciate it.