WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 19, 2025 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.239 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.040 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. The President of the 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:40.000 United States, Donald Trump, on a phone call with the 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:43.680 Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the President makes the purse 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:46.639 for a thirty day ceasefire to build on the developments 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:48.239 of the last twenty four hours, and pleased to say, 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:50.880 we're joined now by Steve whitcaff the White House Special 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:53.760 Envoy to the Middle East. Steve, welcome to the program, Sir, 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.440 fantastic to get some time with you. I know how 0:00:56.520 --> 0:00:59.360 much time you put in with the Russian President to 0:00:59.440 --> 0:01:02.240 make this all happen. It's not the first time you've 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:04.280 spoken to him. It's not the first time the President 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:06.960 of the United States has spoken to the Russian leader either, 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:09.600 could you set the States for a cert How different 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:10.480 was this call? 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:15.280 I thought the call was epic, I thought, Jonathan, I 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:20.880 thought it was epic, transformational all you know, those are 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:23.360 the sorts of adjectives that I use about this call. 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:24.959 The president and. 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:30.520 President Trump and President Putin were in sync with one another. 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:33.160 The call was outcome oriented. 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:34.800 They were talking. 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:38.960 About how to save lives, how to stop the carnage. 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:43.399 And for me, I was proud to be an American 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:44.640 sitting there listening to it. 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:47.760 Steve, let's talk about some of the outcomes. We're hopeful 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:50.240 that ultimately we end up with a thirty day ceasefire. 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:52.360 Before we get there, we're working towards things like a 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:55.480 prisoner swap. We're working towards a maritime ceasefire in the 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:58.520 Black Sea. That's important too. There was also a conversation, 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.000 yes that about maybe in agreement to limit attacks on 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:04.200 energy infrastructure. And we'd love to build on that because 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:06.559 earlier on this morning we heard from the Ukrainian leader 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.600 who said the overnight Russia sent one hundred and fifty 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:13.320 drones and hit Ukrainian energy. I just wonder what was 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:19.560 actually agreed and whether rush across the line overnight, Well, what. 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:23.480 Was agreed between the two presidents was, and it was 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:27.320 at President Trump's suggestion, that there'd be a cessation of 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:33.120 attacks on energy infrastructure from both sides, and civilian infrastructure 0:02:33.120 --> 0:02:39.240 for that matter, also working towards a black Sea moratorium 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:44.120 on hits on naval vessels and freighters carrying grain and 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:48.480 things of that sort, and ultimately that would evolve into 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:52.200 a full on ceasefire, which is a bit more complicated 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:56.959 because there's a two thousand kilometer border, there's Kursk, and 0:02:57.000 --> 0:03:00.320 there's a lot of details that go in to that. 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:05.440 But with regard to your question on some of the 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:10.680 reporting with regard to the Russian drones last night, I 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:14.520 have it on good information from a telephone call I 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:18.120 had before I went on this show, that President Putin 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:21.520 issued an order within ten minutes of his call with 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:27.240 the President directing Russian forces not to be attacking any 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:32.000 Ukrainian energy infrastructure. And that was and any attacks that 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:35.840 happened last night would have happened before that order was given. 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:39.720 In fact, the Russians tell me this morning that seven 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:43.600 of their drones were on their way when President Putin 0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:46.760 issued his order and they were shot down by Russian forces. 0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:51.480 So I tend to believe that President Putin is operating 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:53.840 in good faith. He said that he was going to 0:03:53.880 --> 0:03:56.560 be operating in good faith to the President yesterday, and 0:03:56.600 --> 0:03:57.800 I take him at his word. 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:02.080 So, mister Rikkoff, is your understanding that of today, energy facilities, 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:04.880 energy infrastructure will be off limits. 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:08.000 That's my understanding, yes, ma'am. 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:11.080 Do you think the next stage, potentially, as we get 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:16.599 the roadmap towards thirty day full ceasefire, potentially geography should 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:18.520 be off limits, like drones hitting Kiev. 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:23.960 You know, I can't speak to that. I think the 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:27.160 idea behind the thirty day ceasefire. First of all, we 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:31.200 made more progress yesterday than has been made in the 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:34.080 last three and a half years. They actually, the tool 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:39.400 leaders actually talked and committed to cessation of attacks on 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:44.440 energy infrastructure and civilian infrastructure. They talked about reviving the 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:49.200 Black Sea maritime agreement that had been negotiated several years 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:53.480 ago and never really implemented. Those are monumental things and 0:04:53.560 --> 0:04:57.440 they're trust building things as well. And I think beyond that, 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:01.919 they also went into how you would put the finishing 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:06.080 touches on a full on ceasefire. That full on ceasefire 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:09.400 has a lot to do with this two thousand kilometer 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:13.600 line that where the Ukrainians are lined up against the Russians. 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:14.520 It's complicated. 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:18.719 There are different battlefield conditions in various spots. That's for 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:21.320 the technical teams to figure it out. And they're going 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:25.520 to be meeting in Saudi Arabia, I believe, beginning Monday 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:29.320 and Tuesday. So lots of progress happened yesterday, and it 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:31.760 happened in large part because of President Trump. 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.000 Let's talk about that meeting in Saudi Arabia in the 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:37.840 next week or so. The team's going to be led by, 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:40.520 I believe Secretary Rubio. I think we all want to 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.240 know what needs to happen at that meeting before the 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:45.560 two leaders end up in the same room to get 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:47.360 to that end deal. That we all want to see 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:48.799 what needs to happen in the next week. 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:52.599 Well, I'm not sure that the Secretary of State has 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:56.080 done an amazing job, as has the National Security Advisor 0:05:56.160 --> 0:06:00.720 Mike Waltz. They were both at the last meeting Jetta. 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:04.160 It went well, lots of trust building happened, and I 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:07.200 believe on Monday. We actually have the technical teams going 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:10.520 in why because that's what we're down to. We don't 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:14.520 need to have larging the larger overarching discussions that's been 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:18.000 had and it was completed yesterday between the two leaders. 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:20.359 They agreed on a pathway to. 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:25.880 Some cease fire conditions today and to a full on 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:29.560 cease fire that will be negotiated over the coming days. 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:31.520 I actually think in a couple of weeks we're going 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:33.960 to get to it. So lots of good things now 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.479 it's for the technical teams to dot the i's and 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:39.640 cross the t's, and everybody is committed to that process. 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:40.800 If you think we're going to get there in a 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:43.240 couple of weeks, could we then see a meeting in 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:47.120 person between President Trump and President Putin in the Kingdom? 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:50.040 You know, I can't speak for them, but my best 0:06:50.040 --> 0:06:54.159 bet would be that it's likely to happen. They have 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:56.359 a great rapport together. They had a great rapport in 0:06:56.360 --> 0:07:01.040 the first Trump administration. It was on display yesterday. This 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:06.880 was really a very positive, very proactive, outcome oriented call. 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:11.080 And that's who President Trump is. He's there to get 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:14.200 to the goal line, and we did. We went a 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:15.800 long way yesterday to doing that. 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:18.920 Even now, the president a long long time, going back decades. 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.360 In fact, there's very few people that know him better 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:23.960 than you do. There's a lot of people speculating about 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:26.040 what the motives are, what the end objectives are. 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:27.640 If we could just sit on that for a moment. 0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:31.280 Does the push for peace in Ukraine run parallel with 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:35.000 the push to normalize US Rush relations or Steve? 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:36.240 Are they separate issues? 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:39.880 No, I don't think there's any doubt that the two 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:45.240 are important. For Russia is a critical relationship for US. 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:50.560 It's critical as it affects all other things out there, China, Iran. 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:51.360 The Middle East. 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:56.720 These two leaders coming together and I think having conversations 0:07:56.760 --> 0:08:00.960 about nuclear proliferation, which they did yesterday and was anormously positive. 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:05.760 These are this is enormously beneficial. 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:08.320 For the world at large. And the President believes in this. 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:11.760 He believes in peace, he believes in engaging, He believes 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:13.680 in using peace through. 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:14.160 Strength to. 0:08:16.160 --> 0:08:19.400 Create a better world for everybody. And with that could 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:22.320 come a drop in defense budgets. Take all that money 0:08:22.320 --> 0:08:25.320 and spend it on things that matter more than waging 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:28.080 war all the time. This is his policy, and so 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:34.559 he's to be commended for that. Yesterday was literally transformational 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:36.120 as far as I as far as I am. 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:38.720 Concerned, mister Rikoff, So then is the idea of its 0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:44.280 normalization to draw a wedge between Russia and China and 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:48.280 Russia in Iran as well to further isolate America's adversaries 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:49.560 like Tehran and Beijing. 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:58.600 The I think normalization is about having real conversation President Biden, 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:02.400 according to President Putin, did not speak to President Putin 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:04.960 for three and a half years. That's not a proper 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:09.760 way to run policy. President Trump, in a short eight 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:14.920 weeks has spoken to President Putin twice, very very positive 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:19.520 and constructive conversations. He's directed me on his behalf to 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.280 go to Moscow. I've had close to eight hours of 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:25.680 conversations with President Putin and met with other key people 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:30.800 on his team, and he's directed the National Security Advisor, 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:35.760 the Secretary of State, the CIA director Pete Hegseth, or 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:39.800 Secretary of Defense. Everybody is engaged in this process, and 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:44.120 it's really wonderful to see. I think people ought to 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:45.960 be uplifted, and I think you're going to see some 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:47.520 very very positive results in. 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:48.040 The new term. 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.840 In the lengthy conversations you have had with the Russian lead. 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:53.840 Did restrictions on Russian energy come up soil? Did they 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:54.640 come up yesterday? 0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:59.280 When you say restrictions, Jonathan, on Russian energy, what do 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:01.240 you I'm not sure what you're asking. 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:05.880 Restrictions on financial services, engaging in deals that restrict the 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:08.200 flow of Russian energy, the price camp that the Bible 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:11.520 administration pushed over the last year or so, Sir, have 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:14.480 a variety of restrictions that make it difficult for Russian 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:15.760 energy to compete with energy. 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:16.800 I'll swear. 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:21.560 We did not discuss or the pardon me, the President 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:24.240 did not discuss specifically sanctions yesterday. 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:25.600 If that's what you're referring to. 0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:29.920 I think obviously that's a conversation that the two leaders 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:33.160 are going to have and everybody is open to it. 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:38.000 But first and foremost, we want a solution to that 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:40.199 means an end to the fighting. We want to get 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:43.200 to the ceasefire. That's the President's policy, and we're going 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:45.880 to get to the ceasefire, and I think after that 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:50.760 everything else will be a detail sanction relief and all 0:10:50.800 --> 0:10:53.440 the other things that go with a full on peace treaty. 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:56.000 Trump said last night to Fox News that Russia would 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:59.120 like to use some of the US economic power. This 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:02.960 is an individual who's been against the likes of Nordstream 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:06.000 Nordstream two for years. Mister Werkoff, you know that. But 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:09.600 can you see a world when Russian energy comes back 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:12.880 online via pipelines like Nordstream? 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:15.360 Well, I can certainly see that world. 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:17.800 But let me give you, let me give you an 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:21.440 example about the deleterious effects here and why we have 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:24.480 to get to a solution. Russian oil today is being 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:26.920 sold cheap to China. I'm not sure that's such a 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:29.760 wonderful benefit of that India. 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:34.560 OK So you're underscoring my point. 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:37.960 So there are all these deleterious things that could come 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:41.120 from this, and I think the beginning of it is 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:44.120 a conversation. I think it's sort of unacceptable for two 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:48.480 world leaders of the stature of a Russian president and 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:51.120 an American president who haven't talked to three and a 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:55.040 half years. That's an unacceptable policy program for the president. 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:57.920 He wants to get things done, and you get things 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:01.480 done by getting on a telephone or meeting personally and 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:03.800 instructing your staffs to do that, which is what he's 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:04.240 done here. 0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:05.080 Mister Ricofer. 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:06.520 It's a conversation. 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:08.439 We've had a lot on this programmers. The fact that 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:12.400 sanctions when it comes to Russia didn't change Putin's motives 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.720 and they still were able to fund the war by selling. 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:16.960 A lot of these a lot of this energy. 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:19.880 It just created new markets for Russia to be willing 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:23.200 to trade. Scott Bessant, though, the Treasury Secretary said the 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:25.920 other day that we will go to attend and bring 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.760 sanctions if we have to on Russia to bring Putin 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:31.280 to the table. Do you see President Trump getting to 0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:35.280 that point lifting sanctions to attend in order to cajole 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:37.240 Putin to the table for the ceasefire. 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.600 Look, Scott bessen does a great Treasury Secretary. I'm not 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:45.240 going to speak to what he had to say. I'm 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:48.640 going to say this. I've had two meetings at the 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:52.760 direction of President Trump with President Putin in the last 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.160 several weeks that have collectively aggregated to almost eight hours. 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:59.840 Many other people in the senior people in the administration 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:03.679 are having meetings with their colleagues and their counterparts there. 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:07.359 The President has directed all of this. There is amazing 0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:12.200 progress being made. Yesterday, in one telephone call, we talked 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:17.040 about an immediate ceasefire on energy infrastructure. That's game changing, 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:21.160 and also the Black Sea moratorium game changing, and the 0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:24.120 contours of how we get to a personal ceasefire, a 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:30.400 thirty day ceasefire, game changing. Enormous progress as compared to 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:35.559 where we were, because we're communicating, we're talking in a collegial, 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:40.120 constructive manner, and everybody is outcome oriented, the outcome being 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:42.439 the end of fighting there and the end of the 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:43.120 killing there. 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:45.560 We don't like to see that serve we could just finish. 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:48.199 On Europe, something we've not discussed in the last ten 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.800 minutes or so. The Europeans, Germany and the EU are 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:55.120 pushing to rearm. They're set to spend hundreds of billions 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:57.960 of euros on defense. That's something that President Trump has 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:01.079 been pushing for for quite a while. Does he welcome that, 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.959 does he complicate talks in any way? Does it antagonize 0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:06.200 Russia and make this harder? How does he view that 0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:06.760 at the moment? 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.600 Look, I think the President has a policy which is 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:14.000 that Europe should pay more for their own defense, and 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:17.600 so I think to the extent that that's what's happening. 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:21.960 I think that's a good thing, rearming and all the 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:26.000 other stuff that leads to more conflagration, that leads to 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:29.600 that undermines a peace process. 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:33.200 I would say that that's not such a good thing. 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:37.280 So look, we're here to get a deal in Russia 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:40.600 and Ukraine, and we're well on the way to getting 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:42.560 it done. And I think you're going to hear some 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:47.560 You're going to hear some really positive things happening as 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:48.600 these talks continue. 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:52.000 Mister Werkoff, you're a successful businessman that is now really 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:56.440 at the height of diplomacy around the world. European strong 0:14:56.520 --> 0:15:00.480 economic ties with Russia did not prevent Putin for his 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:04.720 full scale invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty one. Do 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:08.120 you think it could prevent hostilities in the future if 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:11.440 we were to see a ceasefire and businesses in trade 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:13.320 were back to come into. 0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:16.520 The fore I don't think there's any doubt. I think 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:20.040 the point is to get everybody focused not on war, 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:23.560 but on making their countries better, on spending the money 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:27.760 on their people in Ukraine, on rebuilding, on doing on 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:31.640 doing good things for their people. That's how you get 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:35.560 to a better place. And that's President Trump's agenda throughout 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.240 the world and we see it being very very His 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:39.560 agenda is very effective. 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:40.560 People buy into it. 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:43.160 I was on the phone with President Macrone last night 0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:46.400 giving him a download of what happened, and we had 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.880 a really positive conversation about the outcome. So I think 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:53.080 there's a lot of buy in to President Trump's leadership, 0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:55.680 the way he's leading the world today, not just the 0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:59.240 United States. It's just exceptional for me to watch. 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.280 We've a few seconds left with you, sir, but I 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:04.400 think that's an important comment to make relations with Europe. 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:07.360 They are endorsing, Are they this approach that the President 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:09.800 is taken, Because publicly they seem to be saying one thing. 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:13.880 Are they endorsing this approach? Privately, I'm hearing a lot 0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:17.880 of endorsement, Jonathan. That's a very interesting development, sir. I 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.280 wanted to finish on you personally, just for a moment, 0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:23.360 if we can, for the people internationally that aren't aware, Sir, 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:27.200 you were widely regarded as a talented negotiated making a 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.600 fortune in real estate before taking on these responsibilities, and 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:32.680 you seem to be having an instant impact in the role. 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:35.400 And it's started in January before Trump even got into 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.520 the White House, with the agreement, the ceasefire and hostage 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:41.480 change between Israel and Hamas in January. Can we just 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:44.240 finish on how transferable those skills actually are. How different 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:46.720 is this for you to go from that world of 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:50.160 real estate to this life and death in Ukraine. 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.480 Well, you know, I went into the real estate business. 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.640 I was a young lawyer and I went in because 0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:58.920 I wanted to be Donald Trump to tell you the truth, 0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:00.960 and that really is the truth. By the way I've 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:04.359 talked about this in the past, he was a great 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:07.800 real estate guy, and to a large extent, I follow 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:12.280 his example when it comes to negotiating. The President is 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:17.960 all about clearing up misconceptions, clearing up miscommunication, figuring out 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:20.960 how to get a good deal for all stakeholders, all 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:24.040 constituents as a part of the deal, and then deciding 0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:27.879 beforehand what the outcome he wants is. That's how deals 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:30.359 get structured, and they're not all that dissimilar in the 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:32.720 political realm, and that's how we've done it in the 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:36.080 Middle East. We follow his direction in that way and 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:37.240 it's highly effective. 0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:40.200 Steve, You've been generous with your time this morning, sir, 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:42.560 and we appreciate it. Hair Rum Blimbuck's vinements, We've going 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:44.200 to do this again. Thank you very much for being 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:46.960 with us. THEE House Special Envoy to Middle East, that 0:17:47.280 --> 0:18:01.520 Steve Whitcuff. Bnandi Geldberg of TD writes market sentiment moved 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:05.000 from euphoria to dispasse so fast it's given investors whiplash. 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:08.000 While the data has become concerning, the economy is still 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:10.240 doing okay and show signs of moderating. 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:11.800 Kannadi joins us now for more. 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:13.479 It's good to see you, sir, Thanks for being If 0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:15.480 he says exactly that today, is that holekish? 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:16.240 I think so. 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:18.600 I mean you were looking at that tenure rate right 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.040 around four thirty and saying, look how stuck it is. 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:24.160 I think if he sounds dubbish, he would get raped 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:26.800 to four percent. If he sounds hawkish, we can back 0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:29.400 up pretty significantly. The market's been pricing in a lot 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:32.280 of you know, fed action, so to speak. If he 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.240 comes out and says nothing, I think we go back 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:36.760 up to four fifty four sixty. 0:18:36.480 --> 0:18:37.000 In a hurry. 0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:38.879 Hold on a second, on the short end, on of 0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:40.720 the long end, on the long end, Okay, Isn't that 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:44.080 counterintuitive because some people are actually growing increasingly concerned about 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.840 longer term inflation with the expectation that you've got debt 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:50.720 issuance around the world, let alone deglobalization, et cetera. You're 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:53.480 saying that if they sound somewhat hawkish or at least 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:56.359 not ragingly dubvish, you could get a backup on the 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:56.800 long end. 0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:57.640 How does that make sense? 0:18:58.000 --> 0:18:59.919 I think, Look, I think the market is so much 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.440 worried about growth than inflation right now. I mean, we're 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:05.520 all talking kind of stackflationary impulses here. I do think 0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:09.400 the Fed, if they face any sort of growth slowdown, 0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:11.639 will be pretty quick to act. But I think at 0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:13.040 this point they're going to pour a little bit of 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:15.840 cold water on the market's expectation that they're going to 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:19.160 come in effectively tomorrow and start cutting interest rates. They're 0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:21.200 still in wait and see mode, and that could push 0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:22.639 along end of the curve a little bit higher. 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:24.719 Watch what they do, not what they say. That's what 0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:27.080 people are saying right now. When you have a drinking 0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:29.560 game around uncertainty and data dependency, how. 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:30.280 Do you want to drink again? 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:31.200 Cheers? 0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:32.520 There you go some hot water. 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:34.679 There is a question though, about how much they're going 0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:36.760 to give a signaling with quantitative tightening. And I keep 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:39.679 going back to this because ultimately we've heard about that 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.119 from Scott Best at the Treasury Secretary. We've heard that 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:45.600 potentially they could start to pause the allowance of their 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:48.800 balance to roll off their lack of reinvestment as a 0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:51.439 way to sort of ameliorate concertainty around the debt ceiling. 0:19:51.720 --> 0:19:53.600 What do you take of that type of move If 0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:55.280 that does come, I. 0:19:55.200 --> 0:19:57.879 Think they'll try to sell it. As you know, this. 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:00.520 Is completely technical, don't read into this. I think part 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:02.439 of the issue is the markets are going to have 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:05.440 trouble divorcing that from you know, interest rate policy. 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:07.840 The Fed has always said there's two different programs. 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:09.720 Our view is they can still wait a little bit. 0:20:09.760 --> 0:20:12.360 So our view is they don't have to actually cut 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.439 QT here. They can wait until the next meeting or 0:20:15.480 --> 0:20:17.639 the meeting after. We actually think QT is going to 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:20.240 run all the way until September before they end, with 0:20:20.320 --> 0:20:22.440 a little bit of a risk obviously to them ending earlier. 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:24.960 I think that discussion has already gotten in the market. 0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:27.280 It's a little bit you know, optimistic. I would say, 0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:30.360 Scott is some love to have QTM today because that's 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:32.520 three hundred billion less a year that the Treasury has 0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:35.760 to fund. I would say it's more more likely than 0:20:35.800 --> 0:20:38.240 not that it still stays in place for now. They've 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:41.359 got plenty of time until that August X date. I 0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:43.959 don't think they need to rush. They can do it 0:20:43.960 --> 0:20:45.840 in June, they can do it in July. Heck, they 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:46.960 can even do it in September. 0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:49.280 They Treasury secondary sat and you'll see and set exactly 0:20:49.320 --> 0:20:51.600 the same thing. By the way, so he essentially alluded 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:53.760 to that, let's get to the full cast median dup. 0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:56.679 She has two cuts? Does it shives three? Two? I 0:20:56.720 --> 0:20:58.080 think let's a shot at the end to today. 0:20:58.240 --> 0:21:00.520