1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. The President of the 10 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 2: United States, Donald Trump, on a phone call with the 11 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 2: Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the President makes the purse 12 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:46,639 Speaker 2: for a thirty day ceasefire to build on the developments 13 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 2: of the last twenty four hours, and pleased to say, 14 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 2: we're joined now by Steve whitcaff the White House Special 15 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 2: Envoy to the Middle East. Steve, welcome to the program, Sir, 16 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 2: fantastic to get some time with you. I know how 17 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: much time you put in with the Russian President to 18 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 2: make this all happen. It's not the first time you've 19 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 2: spoken to him. It's not the first time the President 20 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 2: of the United States has spoken to the Russian leader either, 21 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 2: could you set the States for a cert How different 22 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 2: was this call? 23 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 3: I thought the call was epic, I thought, Jonathan, I 24 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 3: thought it was epic, transformational all you know, those are 25 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 3: the sorts of adjectives that I use about this call. 26 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 4: The president and. 27 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 3: President Trump and President Putin were in sync with one another. 28 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 3: The call was outcome oriented. 29 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 4: They were talking. 30 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 3: About how to save lives, how to stop the carnage. 31 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:43,399 Speaker 3: And for me, I was proud to be an American 32 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 3: sitting there listening to it. 33 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: Steve, let's talk about some of the outcomes. We're hopeful 34 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 2: that ultimately we end up with a thirty day ceasefire. 35 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 2: Before we get there, we're working towards things like a 36 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 2: prisoner swap. We're working towards a maritime ceasefire in the 37 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 2: Black Sea. That's important too. There was also a conversation, 38 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 2: yes that about maybe in agreement to limit attacks on 39 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 2: energy infrastructure. And we'd love to build on that because 40 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,559 Speaker 2: earlier on this morning we heard from the Ukrainian leader 41 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 2: who said the overnight Russia sent one hundred and fifty 42 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 2: drones and hit Ukrainian energy. I just wonder what was 43 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: actually agreed and whether rush across the line overnight, Well, what. 44 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 3: Was agreed between the two presidents was, and it was 45 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 3: at President Trump's suggestion, that there'd be a cessation of 46 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 3: attacks on energy infrastructure from both sides, and civilian infrastructure 47 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 3: for that matter, also working towards a black Sea moratorium 48 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 3: on hits on naval vessels and freighters carrying grain and 49 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 3: things of that sort, and ultimately that would evolve into 50 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 3: a full on ceasefire, which is a bit more complicated 51 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,959 Speaker 3: because there's a two thousand kilometer border, there's Kursk, and 52 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 3: there's a lot of details that go in to that. 53 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 3: But with regard to your question on some of the 54 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 3: reporting with regard to the Russian drones last night, I 55 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 3: have it on good information from a telephone call I 56 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 3: had before I went on this show, that President Putin 57 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 3: issued an order within ten minutes of his call with 58 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 3: the President directing Russian forces not to be attacking any 59 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 3: Ukrainian energy infrastructure. And that was and any attacks that 60 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 3: happened last night would have happened before that order was given. 61 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 3: In fact, the Russians tell me this morning that seven 62 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 3: of their drones were on their way when President Putin 63 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 3: issued his order and they were shot down by Russian forces. 64 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 3: So I tend to believe that President Putin is operating 65 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 3: in good faith. He said that he was going to 66 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 3: be operating in good faith to the President yesterday, and 67 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 3: I take him at his word. 68 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 5: So, mister Rikkoff, is your understanding that of today, energy facilities, 69 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 5: energy infrastructure will be off limits. 70 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 4: That's my understanding, yes, ma'am. 71 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 5: Do you think the next stage, potentially, as we get 72 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 5: the roadmap towards thirty day full ceasefire, potentially geography should 73 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 5: be off limits, like drones hitting Kiev. 74 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 3: You know, I can't speak to that. I think the 75 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 3: idea behind the thirty day ceasefire. First of all, we 76 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 3: made more progress yesterday than has been made in the 77 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 3: last three and a half years. They actually, the tool 78 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 3: leaders actually talked and committed to cessation of attacks on 79 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 3: energy infrastructure and civilian infrastructure. They talked about reviving the 80 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 3: Black Sea maritime agreement that had been negotiated several years 81 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 3: ago and never really implemented. Those are monumental things and 82 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 3: they're trust building things as well. And I think beyond that, 83 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:01,919 Speaker 3: they also went into how you would put the finishing 84 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 3: touches on a full on ceasefire. That full on ceasefire 85 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 3: has a lot to do with this two thousand kilometer 86 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 3: line that where the Ukrainians are lined up against the Russians. 87 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 4: It's complicated. 88 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 3: There are different battlefield conditions in various spots. That's for 89 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 3: the technical teams to figure it out. And they're going 90 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 3: to be meeting in Saudi Arabia, I believe, beginning Monday 91 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 3: and Tuesday. So lots of progress happened yesterday, and it 92 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 3: happened in large part because of President Trump. 93 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 2: Let's talk about that meeting in Saudi Arabia in the 94 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 2: next week or so. The team's going to be led by, 95 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 2: I believe Secretary Rubio. I think we all want to 96 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 2: know what needs to happen at that meeting before the 97 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 2: two leaders end up in the same room to get 98 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 2: to that end deal. That we all want to see 99 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:48,799 Speaker 2: what needs to happen in the next week. 100 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 3: Well, I'm not sure that the Secretary of State has 101 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 3: done an amazing job, as has the National Security Advisor 102 00:05:56,160 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 3: Mike Waltz. They were both at the last meeting Jetta. 103 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 3: It went well, lots of trust building happened, and I 104 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 3: believe on Monday. We actually have the technical teams going 105 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 3: in why because that's what we're down to. We don't 106 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 3: need to have larging the larger overarching discussions that's been 107 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 3: had and it was completed yesterday between the two leaders. 108 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 4: They agreed on a pathway to. 109 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 3: Some cease fire conditions today and to a full on 110 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 3: cease fire that will be negotiated over the coming days. 111 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 3: I actually think in a couple of weeks we're going 112 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 3: to get to it. So lots of good things now 113 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,479 Speaker 3: it's for the technical teams to dot the i's and 114 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 3: cross the t's, and everybody is committed to that process. 115 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 5: If you think we're going to get there in a 116 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 5: couple of weeks, could we then see a meeting in 117 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 5: person between President Trump and President Putin in the Kingdom? 118 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 3: You know, I can't speak for them, but my best 119 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:54,159 Speaker 3: bet would be that it's likely to happen. They have 120 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:56,359 Speaker 3: a great rapport together. They had a great rapport in 121 00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 3: the first Trump administration. It was on display yesterday. This 122 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 3: was really a very positive, very proactive, outcome oriented call. 123 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 3: And that's who President Trump is. He's there to get 124 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 3: to the goal line, and we did. We went a 125 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 3: long way yesterday to doing that. 126 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 2: Even now, the president a long long time, going back decades. 127 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 2: In fact, there's very few people that know him better 128 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 2: than you do. There's a lot of people speculating about 129 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 2: what the motives are, what the end objectives are. 130 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 6: If we could just sit on that for a moment. 131 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 2: Does the push for peace in Ukraine run parallel with 132 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 2: the push to normalize US Rush relations or Steve? 133 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 6: Are they separate issues? 134 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 3: No, I don't think there's any doubt that the two 135 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 3: are important. For Russia is a critical relationship for US. 136 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 3: It's critical as it affects all other things out there, China, Iran. 137 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 4: The Middle East. 138 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 3: These two leaders coming together and I think having conversations 139 00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 3: about nuclear proliferation, which they did yesterday and was anormously positive. 140 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 3: These are this is enormously beneficial. 141 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 4: For the world at large. And the President believes in this. 142 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 3: He believes in peace, he believes in engaging, He believes 143 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 3: in using peace through. 144 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 4: Strength to. 145 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 3: Create a better world for everybody. And with that could 146 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 3: come a drop in defense budgets. Take all that money 147 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 3: and spend it on things that matter more than waging 148 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 3: war all the time. This is his policy, and so 149 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:34,559 Speaker 3: he's to be commended for that. Yesterday was literally transformational 150 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 3: as far as I as far as I am. 151 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 7: Concerned, mister Rikoff, So then is the idea of its 152 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 7: normalization to draw a wedge between Russia and China and 153 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 7: Russia in Iran as well to further isolate America's adversaries 154 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 7: like Tehran and Beijing. 155 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 3: The I think normalization is about having real conversation President Biden, 156 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 3: according to President Putin, did not speak to President Putin 157 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 3: for three and a half years. That's not a proper 158 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 3: way to run policy. President Trump, in a short eight 159 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 3: weeks has spoken to President Putin twice, very very positive 160 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 3: and constructive conversations. He's directed me on his behalf to 161 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 3: go to Moscow. I've had close to eight hours of 162 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,680 Speaker 3: conversations with President Putin and met with other key people 163 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 3: on his team, and he's directed the National Security Advisor, 164 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 3: the Secretary of State, the CIA director Pete Hegseth, or 165 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 3: Secretary of Defense. Everybody is engaged in this process, and 166 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 3: it's really wonderful to see. I think people ought to 167 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 3: be uplifted, and I think you're going to see some 168 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 3: very very positive results in. 169 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 4: The new term. 170 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 2: In the lengthy conversations you have had with the Russian lead. 171 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 2: Did restrictions on Russian energy come up soil? Did they 172 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 2: come up yesterday? 173 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 3: When you say restrictions, Jonathan, on Russian energy, what do 174 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 3: you I'm not sure what you're asking. 175 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 2: Restrictions on financial services, engaging in deals that restrict the 176 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 2: flow of Russian energy, the price camp that the Bible 177 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 2: administration pushed over the last year or so, Sir, have 178 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 2: a variety of restrictions that make it difficult for Russian 179 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 2: energy to compete with energy. 180 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 6: I'll swear. 181 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 3: We did not discuss or the pardon me, the President 182 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 3: did not discuss specifically sanctions yesterday. 183 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 4: If that's what you're referring to. 184 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 3: I think obviously that's a conversation that the two leaders 185 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 3: are going to have and everybody is open to it. 186 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 3: But first and foremost, we want a solution to that 187 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 3: means an end to the fighting. We want to get 188 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 3: to the ceasefire. That's the President's policy, and we're going 189 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 3: to get to the ceasefire, and I think after that 190 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 3: everything else will be a detail sanction relief and all 191 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 3: the other things that go with a full on peace treaty. 192 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 5: Trump said last night to Fox News that Russia would 193 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 5: like to use some of the US economic power. This 194 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 5: is an individual who's been against the likes of Nordstream 195 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 5: Nordstream two for years. Mister Werkoff, you know that. But 196 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 5: can you see a world when Russian energy comes back 197 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 5: online via pipelines like Nordstream? 198 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 4: Well, I can certainly see that world. 199 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 3: But let me give you, let me give you an 200 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 3: example about the deleterious effects here and why we have 201 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 3: to get to a solution. Russian oil today is being 202 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 3: sold cheap to China. I'm not sure that's such a 203 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 3: wonderful benefit of that India. 204 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 4: OK So you're underscoring my point. 205 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 3: So there are all these deleterious things that could come 206 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 3: from this, and I think the beginning of it is 207 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 3: a conversation. I think it's sort of unacceptable for two 208 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 3: world leaders of the stature of a Russian president and 209 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 3: an American president who haven't talked to three and a 210 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 3: half years. That's an unacceptable policy program for the president. 211 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 3: He wants to get things done, and you get things 212 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 3: done by getting on a telephone or meeting personally and 213 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 3: instructing your staffs to do that, which is what he's 214 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 3: done here. 215 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 4: Mister Ricofer. 216 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 8: It's a conversation. 217 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 5: We've had a lot on this programmers. The fact that 218 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 5: sanctions when it comes to Russia didn't change Putin's motives 219 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 5: and they still were able to fund the war by selling. 220 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 7: A lot of these a lot of this energy. 221 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 5: It just created new markets for Russia to be willing 222 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 5: to trade. Scott Bessant, though, the Treasury Secretary said the 223 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 5: other day that we will go to attend and bring 224 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 5: sanctions if we have to on Russia to bring Putin 225 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 5: to the table. Do you see President Trump getting to 226 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 5: that point lifting sanctions to attend in order to cajole 227 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 5: Putin to the table for the ceasefire. 228 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 3: Look, Scott bessen does a great Treasury Secretary. I'm not 229 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 3: going to speak to what he had to say. I'm 230 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 3: going to say this. I've had two meetings at the 231 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 3: direction of President Trump with President Putin in the last 232 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 3: several weeks that have collectively aggregated to almost eight hours. 233 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 3: Many other people in the senior people in the administration 234 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,679 Speaker 3: are having meetings with their colleagues and their counterparts there. 235 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,359 Speaker 3: The President has directed all of this. There is amazing 236 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 3: progress being made. Yesterday, in one telephone call, we talked 237 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 3: about an immediate ceasefire on energy infrastructure. That's game changing, 238 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 3: and also the Black Sea moratorium game changing, and the 239 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 3: contours of how we get to a personal ceasefire, a 240 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 3: thirty day ceasefire, game changing. Enormous progress as compared to 241 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:35,559 Speaker 3: where we were, because we're communicating, we're talking in a collegial, 242 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 3: constructive manner, and everybody is outcome oriented, the outcome being 243 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:42,439 Speaker 3: the end of fighting there and the end of the 244 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 3: killing there. 245 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 2: We don't like to see that serve we could just finish. 246 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,199 Speaker 2: On Europe, something we've not discussed in the last ten 247 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 2: minutes or so. The Europeans, Germany and the EU are 248 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 2: pushing to rearm. They're set to spend hundreds of billions 249 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 2: of euros on defense. That's something that President Trump has 250 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:01,079 Speaker 2: been pushing for for quite a while. Does he welcome that, 251 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 2: does he complicate talks in any way? Does it antagonize 252 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 2: Russia and make this harder? How does he view that 253 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 2: at the moment? 254 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 3: Look, I think the President has a policy which is 255 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 3: that Europe should pay more for their own defense, and 256 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 3: so I think to the extent that that's what's happening. 257 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 3: I think that's a good thing, rearming and all the 258 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 3: other stuff that leads to more conflagration, that leads to 259 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 3: that undermines a peace process. 260 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 4: I would say that that's not such a good thing. 261 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 3: So look, we're here to get a deal in Russia 262 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 3: and Ukraine, and we're well on the way to getting 263 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 3: it done. And I think you're going to hear some 264 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 3: You're going to hear some really positive things happening as 265 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 3: these talks continue. 266 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 5: Mister Werkoff, you're a successful businessman that is now really 267 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 5: at the height of diplomacy around the world. European strong 268 00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 5: economic ties with Russia did not prevent Putin for his 269 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 5: full scale invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty one. Do 270 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 5: you think it could prevent hostilities in the future if 271 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 5: we were to see a ceasefire and businesses in trade 272 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 5: were back to come into. 273 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 3: The fore I don't think there's any doubt. I think 274 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 3: the point is to get everybody focused not on war, 275 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 3: but on making their countries better, on spending the money 276 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 3: on their people in Ukraine, on rebuilding, on doing on 277 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 3: doing good things for their people. That's how you get 278 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 3: to a better place. And that's President Trump's agenda throughout 279 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 3: the world and we see it being very very His 280 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 3: agenda is very effective. 281 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 4: People buy into it. 282 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 3: I was on the phone with President Macrone last night 283 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 3: giving him a download of what happened, and we had 284 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 3: a really positive conversation about the outcome. So I think 285 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 3: there's a lot of buy in to President Trump's leadership, 286 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 3: the way he's leading the world today, not just the 287 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 3: United States. It's just exceptional for me to watch. 288 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 2: We've a few seconds left with you, sir, but I 289 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 2: think that's an important comment to make relations with Europe. 290 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 2: They are endorsing, Are they this approach that the President 291 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 2: is taken, Because publicly they seem to be saying one thing. 292 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 2: Are they endorsing this approach? Privately, I'm hearing a lot 293 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 2: of endorsement, Jonathan. That's a very interesting development, sir. I 294 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 2: wanted to finish on you personally, just for a moment, 295 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 2: if we can, for the people internationally that aren't aware, Sir, 296 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 2: you were widely regarded as a talented negotiated making a 297 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 2: fortune in real estate before taking on these responsibilities, and 298 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 2: you seem to be having an instant impact in the role. 299 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 2: And it's started in January before Trump even got into 300 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 2: the White House, with the agreement, the ceasefire and hostage 301 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 2: change between Israel and Hamas in January. Can we just 302 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 2: finish on how transferable those skills actually are. How different 303 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 2: is this for you to go from that world of 304 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 2: real estate to this life and death in Ukraine. 305 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 3: Well, you know, I went into the real estate business. 306 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 3: I was a young lawyer and I went in because 307 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 3: I wanted to be Donald Trump to tell you the truth, 308 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 3: and that really is the truth. By the way I've 309 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 3: talked about this in the past, he was a great 310 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 3: real estate guy, and to a large extent, I follow 311 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 3: his example when it comes to negotiating. The President is 312 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 3: all about clearing up misconceptions, clearing up miscommunication, figuring out 313 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 3: how to get a good deal for all stakeholders, all 314 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 3: constituents as a part of the deal, and then deciding 315 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 3: beforehand what the outcome he wants is. That's how deals 316 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 3: get structured, and they're not all that dissimilar in the 317 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 3: political realm, and that's how we've done it in the 318 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 3: Middle East. We follow his direction in that way and 319 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 3: it's highly effective. 320 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 2: Steve, You've been generous with your time this morning, sir, 321 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 2: and we appreciate it. Hair Rum Blimbuck's vinements, We've going 322 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 2: to do this again. Thank you very much for being 323 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 2: with us. THEE House Special Envoy to Middle East, that 324 00:17:47,280 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 2: Steve Whitcuff. Bnandi Geldberg of TD writes market sentiment moved 325 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 2: from euphoria to dispasse so fast it's given investors whiplash. 326 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 2: While the data has become concerning, the economy is still 327 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 2: doing okay and show signs of moderating. 328 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 6: Kannadi joins us now for more. 329 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:13,479 Speaker 2: It's good to see you, sir, Thanks for being If 330 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 2: he says exactly that today, is that holekish? 331 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 6: I think so. 332 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 9: I mean you were looking at that tenure rate right 333 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 9: around four thirty and saying, look how stuck it is. 334 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,160 Speaker 9: I think if he sounds dubbish, he would get raped 335 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 9: to four percent. If he sounds hawkish, we can back 336 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 9: up pretty significantly. The market's been pricing in a lot 337 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 9: of you know, fed action, so to speak. If he 338 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 9: comes out and says nothing, I think we go back 339 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 9: up to four fifty four sixty. 340 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 4: In a hurry. 341 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 1: Hold on a second, on the short end, on of 342 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 1: the long end, on the long end, Okay, Isn't that 343 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: counterintuitive because some people are actually growing increasingly concerned about 344 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: longer term inflation with the expectation that you've got debt 345 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 1: issuance around the world, let alone deglobalization, et cetera. You're 346 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 1: saying that if they sound somewhat hawkish or at least 347 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: not ragingly dubvish, you could get a backup on the 348 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: long end. 349 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:57,640 Speaker 8: How does that make sense? 350 00:18:58,000 --> 00:18:59,919 Speaker 9: I think, Look, I think the market is so much 351 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 9: worried about growth than inflation right now. I mean, we're 352 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 9: all talking kind of stackflationary impulses here. I do think 353 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:09,400 Speaker 9: the Fed, if they face any sort of growth slowdown, 354 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 9: will be pretty quick to act. But I think at 355 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 9: this point they're going to pour a little bit of 356 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 9: cold water on the market's expectation that they're going to 357 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 9: come in effectively tomorrow and start cutting interest rates. They're 358 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 9: still in wait and see mode, and that could push 359 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 9: along end of the curve a little bit higher. 360 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,719 Speaker 1: Watch what they do, not what they say. That's what 361 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: people are saying right now. When you have a drinking 362 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 1: game around uncertainty and data dependency, how. 363 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 6: Do you want to drink again? 364 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 8: Cheers? 365 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 6: There you go some hot water. 366 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 1: There is a question though, about how much they're going 367 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: to give a signaling with quantitative tightening. And I keep 368 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,679 Speaker 1: going back to this because ultimately we've heard about that 369 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: from Scott Best at the Treasury Secretary. We've heard that 370 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: potentially they could start to pause the allowance of their 371 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 1: balance to roll off their lack of reinvestment as a 372 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,439 Speaker 1: way to sort of ameliorate concertainty around the debt ceiling. 373 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 8: What do you take of that type of move If 374 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 8: that does come, I. 375 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 6: Think they'll try to sell it. As you know, this. 376 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 9: Is completely technical, don't read into this. I think part 377 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,439 Speaker 9: of the issue is the markets are going to have 378 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 9: trouble divorcing that from you know, interest rate policy. 379 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 6: The Fed has always said there's two different programs. 380 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 9: Our view is they can still wait a little bit. 381 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,360 Speaker 9: So our view is they don't have to actually cut 382 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,439 Speaker 9: QT here. They can wait until the next meeting or 383 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 9: the meeting after. We actually think QT is going to 384 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 9: run all the way until September before they end, with 385 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 9: a little bit of a risk obviously to them ending earlier. 386 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 9: I think that discussion has already gotten in the market. 387 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 9: It's a little bit you know, optimistic. I would say, 388 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,360 Speaker 9: Scott is some love to have QTM today because that's 389 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 9: three hundred billion less a year that the Treasury has 390 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 9: to fund. I would say it's more more likely than 391 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 9: not that it still stays in place for now. They've 392 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 9: got plenty of time until that August X date. I 393 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,959 Speaker 9: don't think they need to rush. They can do it 394 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 9: in June, they can do it in July. Heck, they 395 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 9: can even do it in September. 396 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 2: They Treasury secondary sat and you'll see and set exactly 397 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 2: the same thing. By the way, so he essentially alluded 398 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 2: to that, let's get to the full cast median dup. 399 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,679 Speaker 6: She has two cuts? Does it shives three? Two? I 400 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 6: think let's a shot at the end to today. 401 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 9: I think the risk is that it goes to three. 402 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,199 Speaker 9: I mean, we've actually got it still showing two. I 403 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 9: think that conversation around inflation versus growth is really what 404 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 9: everyone's nervous about. And you know, I wouldn't be surprised 405 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:13,919 Speaker 9: to see some of the dots actually move higher, not lower. 406 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 9: So I think the expectation is the dots all shift 407 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 9: universally lower because of the worry about growth. There's going 408 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 9: to be some Fed officials who are worried about inflation, 409 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 9: and there's a good chance the medium actually stays around two, 410 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 9: some shift lower, some shift higher, and we don't get 411 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 9: a lot of movement. 412 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 2: The biggest risk I think for Marcus today, and we're 413 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,080 Speaker 2: all trying to gain this out. If you get a 414 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 2: snack flashing me outcome and the revisions to the forecast 415 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 2: and the Federal SEF that just looks tased and confused. 416 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 6: That helps nobody. 417 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: Well, it helps nobody who wants a FED put. But 418 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: anyone who's looking for a FED put, well, good luck. 419 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 1: I feel like the bond market maybe has moved away 420 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: from the idea of a FED put a little bit. 421 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,639 Speaker 1: Stock markets still held out hope. It might be the 422 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: one most susceptible to disappointment today. 423 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 2: Do you think he's worried about what's developing in market 424 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 2: or it's just not big enough, not yet. 425 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 9: I think they're watching it closely. I think you know, 426 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,160 Speaker 9: ski scope certainly matters. I think the timeline matters as well. 427 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 9: I mean, if you have a fifteen to twenty percent 428 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 9: fall in risky assets over the course of a couple 429 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 9: of weeks or a month, that's certainly concerning. If that 430 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 9: happens over the couple of months or a quarter, that's 431 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 9: something they keep an eye on. What we're really watching 432 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 9: is the impact of this fallen equities on hir income consumers. 433 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 9: There they have been the driving force of this economy 434 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 9: for the last couple of years. They're the reason the 435 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 9: economy has outperformed all expectations. If they snap their pocketbooks shut, 436 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 9: I think that's the fear. I think that's what markets 437 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,879 Speaker 9: are trading right now. You know we've been taught before, 438 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 9: don't bet against the American consumer. 439 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 6: Not yet. 440 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 9: I think there's a lot of nervousness, but the data 441 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 9: is not there yet. 442 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 6: That would be a night to change. 443 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 2: Cannot appreciate your time as a ways, cannot go back 444 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 2: that of tday. We'll begin the saund with Stuck's steady 445 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 2: as Trina's White, the FMC rank decision, Kaki Chantry, if 446 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,960 Speaker 2: black Croft wang in on the market volatility, writing this, 447 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 2: there is no single smoking gun, but rather we look 448 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,399 Speaker 2: to a mosaic of data and sentiment indicators that have 449 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 2: all contributed to the pullback in risk. 450 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 6: Gnkie joins us now for more Gnkey and morning, it's 451 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 6: good to see you. 452 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 8: Morning. 453 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 2: Great Please You've said that because a lot of days 454 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:16,919 Speaker 2: we get this down draft inequities and a lot of 455 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 2: people just say trade, trade, uncertainty, policy volatility, and then 456 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 2: we see names that aren't really associated for that story 457 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 2: down aggressively, maybe much more so than the gms of 458 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,200 Speaker 2: this world, which you think explains the fuller picture. 459 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 10: Yeah, absolutely, so a couple of things. First of all, 460 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,440 Speaker 10: thank you for having me. I would characterize it as 461 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,360 Speaker 10: four different things that have been driving the markets over 462 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 10: the last. 463 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 8: Couple of weeks. 464 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 10: So the first is, as we were discussing earlier, there 465 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:45,119 Speaker 10: has been a significant expectation of slowdown of growth for 466 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 10: Q one and the entirety of the year, and that's 467 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 10: coming from which brings me to the second point. That's 468 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,719 Speaker 10: coming from consumption or expectations of consumers slowing down. For 469 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 10: the longest time, that has been the lynchpin of the economy. 470 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 10: If you're at going to see consumers slowing down, and 471 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 10: we've seen that in the soft data so far. We 472 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 10: haven't necessarily seen it in some of the harder data, 473 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 10: but if that comes about, I think that's going to 474 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 10: be a real concerns. We've heard that from corporate commentaries. 475 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 10: We're talking about Delta airlines. We've seen that from coals, 476 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 10: we saw it a couple of weeks ago from Walmart 477 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 10: and Target. 478 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 8: That's another thing. 479 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 10: I'll also say, of course this policy uncertainty that has 480 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 10: been there all along, but now alongside the policy uncertainty 481 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 10: and the questions about tariffs and immigration, there's now that 482 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 10: very real slowing down that you're seeing. Finally, I'll say 483 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,200 Speaker 10: that we have to give a nod a little bit 484 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 10: to some of the valuations that we already had coming 485 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 10: into this year. We all admitted and we knew that 486 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:48,199 Speaker 10: valuations in the US market were a little stretched. So 487 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,959 Speaker 10: you're seeing that pullback happen. So it's a bunch of 488 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 10: things that are coming together. 489 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 1: We try to create a narrative for just momentum play. 490 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 1: And I keep saying this because the tech trade has 491 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,119 Speaker 1: been the one that's got the most beaten up, and 492 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 1: it comes at a time where suddenly people are questioning 493 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,320 Speaker 1: whether maybe their money will be better treated. 494 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 4: In other places. 495 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 1: You're seeing those flows rapidly shift. How much is that 496 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 1: ultimately with underpitting this and it's sort of exemplified by 497 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: the biggest losers. 498 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 8: I think that's a part of the story. 499 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 10: There's obviously, you know, two last week on Thursday, when 500 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 10: we had those big moves and we entered into correction territory. 501 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 10: A lot of finger pointing did happen towards what was 502 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 10: the positioning, what were some of the hedge fund most 503 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 10: shortened names, what were they doing all of that? And 504 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,119 Speaker 10: surely that plays a role, yes, But if that was 505 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 10: happening in vacuum without the macro picture decelerating, if that 506 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 10: was happening in vacuum, it wouldn't have been ten percent, 507 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 10: it wouldn't have lasted, it wouldn't have been yesterday. 508 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:44,639 Speaker 8: So I think it's a combination. 509 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 10: That was my point earlier that Jonathan, that you read out. 510 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,919 Speaker 10: It's a lot of things coming together while at the 511 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 10: same time China and Europe are going the other way 512 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 10: in terms of fiscal expansion. I think this is a 513 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 10: great opportunity for investor to recognize, especially USM bust investors, 514 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 10: to recognize the need for adding hedges and the need 515 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 10: for diversification. To the extent you haven't had non US 516 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 10: in your portfolio, to the extent you haven't had inflation 517 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 10: link bombs in your portfolio, to the extent you haven't 518 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 10: had anything other than tech in your portfolio, we think 519 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 10: this is a good time to think about adding those hedges. 520 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 11: So let me ask you on the non US So. 521 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 11: Danny Berger earlier today shared a really interesting factoid that 522 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,679 Speaker 11: since the start of last year twenty twenty four, do 523 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,639 Speaker 11: we turn on the max seven is the same as 524 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 11: it return on the decks? Yeah, going forward, what do 525 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 11: you think that that relationship looks like? 526 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 8: I think a lot depends. 527 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 10: I mean, just yesterday, obviously we finally got the approval 528 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:45,439 Speaker 10: of some of the fiscal policies that are going to 529 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 10: take place. I think a lot of that depends on 530 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 10: what ultimately happens and at what pace. 531 00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,240 Speaker 8: If I had to bet for the next. 532 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 10: Ten years, I would still put my money in American 533 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:01,200 Speaker 10: Innovation and AI. Some of them is just large gap 534 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 10: quality US companies. Over the next few months or even 535 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 10: the next year. I think Germany, which is already, as 536 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 10: you pointed out, had an amazing run. I think there's 537 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 10: more to that story to go. But what is your 538 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:15,400 Speaker 10: time frame? When I sit back and think about how 539 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 10: clients are positioned, especially in the US, and I think 540 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,920 Speaker 10: a lot of people are recognizing the fact that they 541 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 10: haven't had the right diversification in their portfolio, that you've 542 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:30,879 Speaker 10: had too much of large gap stocks only in the 543 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 10: US only. You haven't had Europe, you haven't had emerging markets. 544 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,240 Speaker 10: And I think this is a time when investors, I 545 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 10: mean they should always be diversified, but certainly in the 546 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 10: near term if the growth is coming from elsewhere, you 547 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:45,959 Speaker 10: want to be thinking about ways to add that. 548 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 11: So recent investor survey showed the biggest ever outflow from 549 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 11: US equities and showed the biggest ever outflow from the 550 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 11: US to the rest of the world. Yeah, some people 551 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 11: view this signaling the end of the really nasty technicals 552 00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 11: and that now we can look to at least neutral technicals. 553 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:06,919 Speaker 11: Do you buy that? 554 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 10: I mean, yes, I follow the survey. It's a good 555 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 10: one to follow if you're a market participant. I also 556 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 10: look at how many people fill out the survey. We 557 00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,160 Speaker 10: do our own and we just had a client call 558 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,640 Speaker 10: with over two thousand people that answered similar pole questions, 559 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 10: and what they talked about was actually looking to buy, 560 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,680 Speaker 10: looking for an opportunity to buy a pullback in US risks. 561 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 10: So I don't know if that survey by itself is 562 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 10: the end all and be all in terms of technicals. 563 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 10: I think this is an opportunity to educate. Honestly, this 564 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 10: is our opportunity to go out and tell investors that 565 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 10: there are other options. 566 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 6: There. 567 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 10: Used to be just one. There was no alternative. We 568 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 10: all know that acronym. Now there are other options. Those 569 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 10: options come in gold as diversifiers, in short data tips, 570 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 10: it comes in the minimum volatility parts of the US market, 571 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 10: and yes it comes in Europe and non US. 572 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,480 Speaker 2: Prices during the edge right now, isn't it over the 573 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 2: last few months. 574 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 1: I love that idea that essentially, if you want to 575 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 1: talk about why Europe might make sense, now is your 576 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 1: moment to go talk to people. 577 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 2: It's easy to talk about now. We had people coming 578 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 2: on the program for so many years and the same 579 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 2: thing and nothing happened. 580 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 1: Exactly, so now they can come out and say, look, 581 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 1: there is hope there. I do wonder at what point 582 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 1: we get a structural shift and just Obahama's point earlier 583 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 1: about this idea, that are we looking at a long 584 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 1: term shift in flows and potential and how. 585 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 8: Do you price it in? 586 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 1: And it seems like investors are not really suggesting that 587 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 1: just yet. 588 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:33,720 Speaker 2: Gucky, appreciate your time, so it's going to see you. 589 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 2: Thanks for dropping by Gaki chandrib of Black Crock still 590 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 2: a proper introduction. David Rumstein at the Carlile Group joined 591 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 2: us now for more. David, good morning, good to see. 592 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 4: You, My pleasure to be here. 593 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:52,959 Speaker 12: Thank you for having me. 594 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 2: You've caught up with some fantastic individuals over the last 595 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,840 Speaker 2: few weeks, including the former Treasury Secretary Steve Manuchin. But 596 00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 2: I think we want your thoughts, your individual view on 597 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 2: where we are on this economy and where you think 598 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 2: things a headache. 599 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 12: Obviously, the economy depends on certainty, and there's some lack 600 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,520 Speaker 12: of certainty right now. But what's going to happen on 601 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 12: taxes and tariffs? So when there's greater certainty, I think 602 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,600 Speaker 12: we can better predict where the economy is going to go. 603 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 12: Muhammad knows that so well. So in my view, there's 604 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,960 Speaker 12: some uncertainty right now. I had a chance recently at 605 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 12: an event over the weekend to interview the chairman of 606 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:29,120 Speaker 12: the House Ways and Means Committee, and you know, he's 607 00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 12: pretty bullish on his ability to get the tax cuts through. 608 00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,080 Speaker 12: The President wants, but the market wants to see if 609 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:35,760 Speaker 12: it's actually going to happen, and then what's going to 610 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 12: happen in the Senate, And then we have to see 611 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 12: whether the tariffs are actually going to go through or 612 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 12: at what level. So there's some uncertainty, but right now 613 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 12: the market is not as disappointed and where things are 614 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,920 Speaker 12: as I would have thought. The market's not collapsing as 615 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 12: some people thought it might. So you know, maybe some 616 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 12: of the things that President Trump is doing is or 617 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 12: having some impact on the market favorably. 618 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 1: How much is a FED part of this discussion with 619 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 1: people expecting them to step in and rescue the economy 620 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 1: should grow slow enough versus prioritize inflation. 621 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 12: Well when the FED, I think the Fed's view is 622 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 12: the FED doesn't surprise people. Under JPW, the FED pretty 623 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 12: much tells you what it's going to do and then 624 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 12: explains what it's done after he does it. And today 625 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,080 Speaker 12: there's been no signals out of the FED that is 626 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 12: going to be a rate cut that I can see. 627 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 12: So I think it's unlikely you're going to get a 628 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,080 Speaker 12: FED rate cut today, and therefore I think the market 629 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,120 Speaker 12: would be shocked if it were. We'd be very happy 630 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 12: if it did, but I don't think it will happen today. 631 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 11: David Wall are we on two characterizations about private equity. 632 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 11: One is a ton of money on the sideline waiting 633 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 11: to come in and two distributions back. All feel very 634 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 11: very slow. Well. 635 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 12: For the last couple of years, there haven't been as 636 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,520 Speaker 12: many exit opportunities as people wanted. As a result, a 637 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,800 Speaker 12: lot of the private equity firms are ready to sell things. 638 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 12: They were hoping at the beginning of this year as 639 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 12: the new administration came in that there'll be looser regulatory controls, 640 00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 12: IPOs better and so forth. That hasn't yet happened. It 641 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 12: may happen, hasn't yet happened. There is a lot of 642 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,760 Speaker 12: money on the sidelines, for sure, and I do think 643 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:06,280 Speaker 12: that some of the deals that have been talked about 644 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 12: probably will get done. But I think the market is 645 00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 12: wait and see whether There are a lot of the 646 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,640 Speaker 12: large deals are going to be approved by the FTC 647 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 12: or the Justice Department, and isn't clear that they will 648 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 12: get approved. For example, the Whiz deal that was I 649 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 12: guess announced or maybe going to be announced, it's not 650 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 12: clear that I'll get approved. It didn't get approved before 651 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 12: under Biden, or at least the temporary indications where it 652 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 12: wouldn't have been improved. Today, I don't know whether that 653 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 12: deal will be approved or not. That's a big deal 654 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 12: with the market. Market be very happy that deal will 655 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 12: get approved. 656 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,360 Speaker 11: My guess would be So you mentioned the importance of 657 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:40,040 Speaker 11: trying to resolve the uncertainty, and that's the upside. What's 658 00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 11: the downside? What's the thing that keeps you up at night? 659 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 12: Well, clearly markets want to know what the rules of 660 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,000 Speaker 12: the game are. Most business people can adapt. Just tell 661 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 12: us what the rules are, and we'll move one way 662 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,440 Speaker 12: or the other. Right now, there's some uncertainty is whether 663 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:55,720 Speaker 12: President Trump can get through the tax cuts he wants 664 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,960 Speaker 12: at the level he wants. Can they get through the Senate? 665 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,240 Speaker 12: Will those people get all the spending cuts they want? 666 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,959 Speaker 12: Nobody really knows. Will the judges stop some of that? 667 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 12: There's some uncertainty Until there's more certainty. I don't think 668 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,840 Speaker 12: anybody can know for certain whether we're really going to 669 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,920 Speaker 12: have the economic boom that we would like to have. 670 00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 5: David, you have a relationship with the president, You've spoken 671 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 5: to him. Do you believe there's something like the Trump 672 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,680 Speaker 5: put still in play? 673 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:18,479 Speaker 4: Well? 674 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 12: I think President Trump came into office with big expectations 675 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 12: from the market that he would do a lot of 676 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 12: things that President Biden didn't do. So far, President Trump 677 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 12: has tried to do a lot of these things. They 678 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 12: haven't yet come to reality, but they may. I just 679 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,840 Speaker 12: don't know yet. I think he's fairly bullish about his 680 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,000 Speaker 12: ability to get these things through Congress, but obviously he's 681 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 12: frustrated from time to time about what the judges are doing. 682 00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 2: Last question comes from a blimpeg subscribe. But does mister 683 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 2: Rubinstein think the Orioles will win the American League East? 684 00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,720 Speaker 2: It seems to be the only thing people care about 685 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 2: right now. What's your wants to that? 686 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 12: We certainly deserve because we have a great owner and. 687 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 8: We agree with that high. 688 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 12: Yes, if the ownership is the most important criteria, we 689 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,400 Speaker 12: should and we have a good team, and amazingly they 690 00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 12: can project how many games we're gonna win in advance 691 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,440 Speaker 12: of the season, and they're pretty accurate. But I won't 692 00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 12: say how many they project. 693 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,320 Speaker 2: I think Mike is part of the ownership group too, 694 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:08,759 Speaker 2: so I've got to agree with that as well. So 695 00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:10,759 Speaker 2: it's always going to catch up with you. Appreciate your time. 696 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 2: Thank you, Thank you very much David Rubinstein there at 697 00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:16,000 Speaker 2: the Carlisle Group. Thank you, and do not miss David's 698 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:19,560 Speaker 2: conversation with former Treasury Secretary Steve Manuchin tonight on peer 699 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:23,520 Speaker 2: to peer Conversations Right here on Bloomberg. This is the 700 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,799 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, 701 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,760 Speaker 2: angio politics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg 702 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 2: TV weekday mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. 703 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else 704 00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 2: you listen, and as always, on the bloom Blog terminal 705 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 2: and the Bloomberg Business app