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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing in song spect we're saying it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: That we see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to Wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right. It is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 4: If you want to pack.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host, Brendan glas Sheen. Today's episode Divisional Round

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Speaker 4: NFL Best Bets. We've got four games this weekend to Saturday,

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Speaker 4: two Sunday. Usual suspects in the House, Brandon Anderson, Vegas Refund,

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Speaker 4: Luke Swain, and Jill Gallant. As a quick reminder, folks,

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Speaker 4: a subscription to Action Pro is how you get the

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Speaker 4: most out of Actions Award winning app. As of right now,

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Speaker 4: Action is offering a Pro subscription at forty percent off.

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Speaker 1: Forty percent off. That's a good deal.

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Speaker 4: This is only being offered during the NFL playoffs, so

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Speaker 4: if you don't already have Pro, now is the best

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Speaker 4: time to subscribe and unlock all of the best features

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Speaker 4: of the Action app. Coming into the weekend, Underdogs in

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Speaker 4: the playoffs. Playoff dogs are forty and twenty five against

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Speaker 4: the spread since twenty seventeen. Keep that in mind, teams.

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Speaker 4: This is from Evan abrams teams to win as an

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Speaker 4: underdog in the wild card round. Jags, Giants are six

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Speaker 4: and twenty three straight up, thirteen and sixteen against the

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Speaker 4: spread in the following weekend, which is this weekend the

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Speaker 4: divisional round. Over the last twenty years, since twenty eleven,

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Speaker 4: those teams are one in fifteen straight up. I learned

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Speaker 4: that team that won was the Tennessee Titans. They beat

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Speaker 4: Brady and then they beat Lamar and the Ravens. That

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Speaker 4: was trivia earlier in the week with Evan and as

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Speaker 4: we know, Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles. They're in the Divisional round.

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Speaker 4: The NFC East becomes the first division since nineteen ninety

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Speaker 4: seven to have three teams in this round. So we're

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Speaker 4: looking to bounce back. Shout out to Jill hit the

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Speaker 4: Dawson Knox anytime touchdown last.

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Speaker 1: Week, Luke was on the Giants.

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Speaker 4: As a reminder, you can follow all of the picks

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Speaker 4: in the action app. You can follow the account Action Network.

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Speaker 4: NFL Picks Sunday six pack also available there, let's dive in,

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Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson. You're going to start on Saturday. What do

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Speaker 4: you got for us?

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Speaker 5: I am I'm going to start with that first game

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Speaker 5: on Saturday. Last week, my first pick was fading the Jaguars.

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Speaker 5: It worked out great for.

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Speaker 2: Me for a half.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna come back on the other side this week.

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Speaker 5: I'm on Jacksonville Jaguars. Give me the plus nine. I'll

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Speaker 5: stay upfront. I think you can wait. I think you

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Speaker 5: might get a nine and a half a ten here.

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Speaker 5: Probably the line continues to inch up toward kickoff, but

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Speaker 5: right now as we're recording, I'll take the nine. It's

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Speaker 5: the matchup change. So last week we talked about Jacksonville's defense.

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Speaker 5: I still don't love them. They're thirty first in DVOA

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Speaker 5: against top half of the league offenses. Mahomes played this

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Speaker 5: team earlier in the year and shredded them. Just got

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Speaker 5: to say that up front. But I don't trust the

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Speaker 5: Chiefs defense either. If you look at them against top

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Speaker 5: thirteen offenses, twenty fourth by DVA, terrible in the red zone.

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Speaker 5: I think the Jaguars can hang with this team offensively,

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Speaker 5: I think they can score with them. Chiefs pass d

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Speaker 5: has been vulnerable if the pressure doesn't get home, and

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Speaker 5: Lawrence one of the things he's really improved at this

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Speaker 5: year is the speed, getting the ball out quickly, processing quickly.

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Speaker 5: So I think the Jaguars are going to score. I

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Speaker 5: think we'll get a lot of back and forth here,

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Speaker 5: and I do like one particular matchup on the defense

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Speaker 5: for Jacksonville. That pass rush has been really good, especially

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Speaker 5: late in the season. And the one thing the Chiefs

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Speaker 5: offense is a little bit leaky at is that offensive

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Speaker 5: line in pass protection. They only one time all year

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Speaker 5: played a team that was top quarter of the league

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Speaker 5: in pressure rate. It was this one against Jacksonville. They

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Speaker 5: had three turnovers in that game. That was a season

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Speaker 5: high for Kansas City. Now, yes they lost, the Jaguars

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Speaker 5: lost by ten. With the three turnovers, that's not great,

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Speaker 5: But the fact that the Chiefs didn't make some mistakes there,

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Speaker 5: I think is important. Normally with the Chiefs, I always

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Speaker 5: like to bet them because you got the coaching advantage,

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Speaker 5: you got the special teams advantage. They're built into what

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Speaker 5: Andy Reid is. I think it's the other way in

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Speaker 5: this one. Special teams has not gone well for the

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Speaker 5: Chiefs this year. Jacks has been much better. And I

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Speaker 5: think I'll take Doug Peterson in a playoff game right

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Speaker 5: now over Andy Reid. And then we did this one

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Speaker 5: brandan on the Hot Read on Sunday night. I gave

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Speaker 5: you all the trends. I've got an article up at

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Speaker 5: Action Network with all the division round trends. Just a

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Speaker 5: couple of reminders, some trends fading the chiefs here in

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Speaker 5: the divisional round, teams over seventy five percent win rate

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Speaker 5: are fifteen and thirty ats thirty three percent cover rate

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Speaker 5: over the last couple decades. One seeds thirteen to twenty

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Speaker 5: four and one against the spread if they're fared by

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Speaker 5: ten or less eight twenty three and one twenty six

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Speaker 5: percent cover rate Really really bad here, Mahomes. We know

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Speaker 5: to fade him when he's a big favorite. You know

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Speaker 5: that number by now. And then Doug Peterson our guy

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Speaker 5: six and zero unbeaten against the spread as a playoff

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Speaker 5: underdog five and one straight up in those games, I'll

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Speaker 5: take Jacksonville plus nine. I'm gonna sprinkle the money line too,

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Speaker 5: plus three eighty. That's not the official pick here, just

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Speaker 5: the plus nine, but I'm gonna put some money on

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Speaker 5: the money line. I think Jacksonville could keep this going

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Speaker 5: and actually pull the upset here.

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Speaker 4: And to reiterate the Mahomes trend is a favorite of

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Speaker 4: three and a half for more thirty thirty six and

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Speaker 4: one against the number as a favorite of three or.

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Speaker 1: Less seventeen six.

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Speaker 4: And one that also includes when he's an underdog, which

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Speaker 4: is rare. Chiefs are favored Luke for a fourteenth straight

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Speaker 4: playoff game.

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Speaker 2: And I'm winning this way as well. The one thing

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Speaker 2: that terrifies me and it's almost like it just reminds

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Speaker 2: me of remember the Vikings game where they Stefon Diggs

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Speaker 2: the miracle in Minnesota. In the very next week, the

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Speaker 2: Vikings got stomped by the Eagles, where you can probably

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Speaker 2: you know you can, butch like I had to fall

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Speaker 2: and I was on the Vikings that week too, and

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Speaker 2: is it is a vivid reminder that I always have

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Speaker 2: of a playoff let down after an exciting comeback or

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Speaker 2: whatever it was, which Jags definitely just had that It's

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Speaker 2: not one play, but that's the only thing. I just

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Speaker 2: keep thinking about, the Eagles or the Vikings getting stomped

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Speaker 2: the very next week.

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Speaker 5: But to that, I would respond, though Jacksonville is one,

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Speaker 5: I think six in a row now effectively playoff games

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Speaker 5: like they've had to keep winning. They just beat to

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Speaker 5: get into the playoffs. Tennessee on a miracle play, honestly,

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Speaker 5: more of a miracle finish than last week. Like though

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Speaker 5: it was a twenty seven point comeback, it sort of

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Speaker 5: just felt like we were heading toward Jacksonville down the

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Speaker 5: stretch there, like it wasn't the miracle emotional Digs play.

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Speaker 5: So I think it's a good point. I know that

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Speaker 5: the Vikings standing and remembers both of those games, certainly

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Speaker 5: the good one and the bad one, So I think

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Speaker 5: it's fair.

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Speaker 2: Patterson's probably like Patterson's operating is like the best coach

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Speaker 2: in the league, which thank god it's not Leftwich, which

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Speaker 2: tough scene for that guy right now, just got fired

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Speaker 2: from the Bucks and after losing on Monday, and now

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Speaker 2: he's got to watch the team that he was the

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Speaker 2: head coach for that he bailed on play on Saturday.

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Speaker 4: That same year, the Digs Touchdown year, was the year

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Speaker 4: the Jags made the AFC Championship Game and lost to

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Speaker 4: Tom Brady and the Patriots. Jacksonville had a lead going

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Speaker 4: to the fourth quarter, and New England out score Jacksonville

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Speaker 4: fourteenth three in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 2: That defense was so good, a right, one of the best,

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Speaker 2: like in the passion a lots that.

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Speaker 1: Game, so that that kind of wraps it in a bow.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, Brandon's into taking the Jags and the points

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Speaker 4: on to Jill speaking of this game, you have a

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Speaker 4: touchdown angle.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm not going to go as far as

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Speaker 3: thinking that the Jags could cover. But at the same time,

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Speaker 3: I completely understand why Brandon would come to that conclusion

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Speaker 3: because of the Chiefs defense, which has a key defensive weakness, which.

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Speaker 1: Is the slot.

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Speaker 3: So you're gonna be looking at Christian Kirk to score

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Speaker 3: in any time touchdown in that game at plus one

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Speaker 3: ninety and the Chiefs were thirty first in the NFL

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Speaker 3: in touchdowns allowed to the slot, so that includes receivers

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Speaker 3: and tight ends now overall as well, they've allowed twenty

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Speaker 3: touchdowns to wide receivers during the regular season that ranked

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Speaker 3: thirty first. And I think it's a key to note

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Speaker 3: that because usually they're leading in games, so a lot

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Speaker 3: of times teams will just abandon the run. They'll immediately

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Speaker 3: to start trying to play catchup mode and more often

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Speaker 3: than not, the wide receivers are the ones who are

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Speaker 3: benefiting from that. Now back to the slot part. Christian

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Speaker 3: Kirk winds up pretty much exclusively in the slot eighty

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Speaker 3: percent of the time. He led the team as well

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Speaker 3: in nearly every offensive metric as far as catches, yards, touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: a huge offseason signing for them. Also, when you go

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Speaker 3: back to that matchup, the one where Patrick Mahomes diced

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Speaker 3: them for four touchdowns, Christian Kirk actually caught a touchdown

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Speaker 3: at the end of the first half and at the

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Speaker 3: end of the second half, so score twice in that game.

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Speaker 3: I think all jag wide receivers are in play, but

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Speaker 3: I really like Kirk specifically in this matchup because of

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Speaker 3: how the Kansas City defense is actually fared comparatively to

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Speaker 3: the outside receivers as opposed to the receivers going over

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Speaker 3: the middle. I would also say I'm going to be

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Speaker 3: probably betting Trevor Lawrence for a touchdown in this game

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Speaker 3: as well, But Christian Kirk is my official pick at

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Speaker 3: plus one ninety.

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Speaker 4: We had Nick Giffin on Green Dot Daily this week

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Speaker 4: and he likes Kirk to finish over his receiving prop

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Speaker 4: number of sixty four and a half, and he.

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Speaker 1: Mentioned exactly what you said.

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Speaker 4: Kansas City struggles to receivers that play in the slot

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Speaker 4: in the passing game he liked at ten as well,

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Speaker 4: and Kansas City also plays a very high rate.

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Speaker 1: Of man defense. He takes that that bodes well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's a little foreshadowing as well for the

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Speaker 3: Touchdown Show, which will be hearing on Saturday at ten

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Speaker 3: thirty am Eastern Sky.

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Speaker 4: Nice plug moments into the show plugging the next show

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Speaker 4: in what's coming on Action Network?

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Speaker 1: Okay, Luke, you're up. What's up?

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Speaker 2: So the first one, I'm gonna go with the Cowboys

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Speaker 2: plus three and a half at the Niners on Sunday Night,

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Speaker 2: which come down. It was at three at one point.

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Speaker 2: It does seem like there's some books moving towards a

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Speaker 2: four again, which I think this is one you can

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Speaker 2: probably wait on. There's no rush to grab the three

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Speaker 2: and a half. I think the three has got scooped up,

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Speaker 2: and if it goes back down, I don't see that

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Speaker 2: lasting very long and you'll be they get three and

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Speaker 2: a half again. But this is just fading. It's scary

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Speaker 2: fade in the hottest scene probably in the league. Right now.

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Speaker 2: But when you look at the Niners and you looked

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Speaker 2: who they've played, it's just like, depending on the ratings

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Speaker 2: that you look at, they could have the weakest schedule

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Speaker 2: in the entire league in terms of strength, where they

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Speaker 2: haven't played a Party since already started, he hasn't faced

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Speaker 2: a defense with the top ten rush. Right the only

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Speaker 2: defense that he's played that is DVOA Top twelve is

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Speaker 2: going to be Washington, which they were a shell of

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Speaker 2: themselves when he faced them. They're very injured, and now

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Speaker 2: he's going to go against a Dallas defense that their

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Speaker 2: strength is going to be the pass rush. They are

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Speaker 2: top three pass rush in the league. Where the argument

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Speaker 2: against that's going to be the San Francisco offense is

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Speaker 2: play action throw like they are like Party is a

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Speaker 2: puppet to Shanahan and all of his decisions are being

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Speaker 2: made pre snap and the pass rush might not have

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Speaker 2: time to get there. But I still think that that's

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Speaker 2: not enough, and it just like Party has looked great,

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Speaker 2: like it just doesn't make sense. But he's just been

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Speaker 2: playing too well. And all the credit to Shanahan, but

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Speaker 2: this is going to be the first defense that he's

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Speaker 2: going against that I think can create problems that they

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Speaker 2: do have a weakness going to the outside receivers, and

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Speaker 2: if San Francisco offense is going to take advantage of

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Speaker 2: a weakness, I don't think that's the one with a

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Speaker 2: UKA on the outside, et cetera. This is going to

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Speaker 2: be totally step up in class against the Dallas team

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Speaker 2: that put up forty on the Eagles, thirty four in

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Speaker 2: the Jags, twenty eight on the Packers. So in terms

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Speaker 2: of battle tested with this offense, Dallas is proven. And

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Speaker 2: I was going against Dallas some Monday, and admittedly so

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Speaker 2: when they everything you thought about Dak he just flipped

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Speaker 2: the switch. And when he flips the switch, it's not

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Speaker 2: like the Bucks defense is bad. He looked amazing. They

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Speaker 2: have when they're rolling. They have an elite running back

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Speaker 2: and Pollard, they have Zeke, they have an elite alpha

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Speaker 2: wide receiver, they have an above average offensive line with

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Speaker 2: an elite pass rush. Like they have everything needed to

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Speaker 2: operate at an elite level against a Samrancisco defense that

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Speaker 2: hasn't faced a top sixteen offense since Week seven against

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes, so Raiders put up thirty one. That is

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Speaker 2: just in the back of my head the Raiders putting

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Speaker 2: up thirty one on the Niners, and it's possible, and

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Speaker 2: this could be possible again. And Cowboys at plus three

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Speaker 2: and a half in a playoff game. Maybe I'm buying high,

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Speaker 2: but everything about Monday sold mam On Dak and this

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Speaker 2: team right.

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Speaker 4: Now their final three games of the year after the

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Speaker 4: Tampa game, which I would put they scored thirty five

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Speaker 4: on Tampa, the Niners, Seattle, the Commanders, the Raiders, Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: So they've closed the year.

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Speaker 2: And it felt like in the Commanders specifically, I know

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Speaker 2: they're playing their starters, but that if there is an

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Speaker 2: exhibit a of like motivational factors and like trying, like

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Speaker 2: I just don't think that Commander's game, you had an

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Speaker 2: effort from the Cowboys team that was anything close, which

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Speaker 2: they really didn't have much to play for at all,

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Speaker 2: And I am going to default to motivation against the Commanders,

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Speaker 2: I thought, Jill.

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Speaker 3: I just think even Seahawks Island was able to exploit

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Speaker 3: this defense even a little bit in the first half.

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Speaker 3: I don't think anybody was thinking about Kenneth Walker, and

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Speaker 3: he was able to walk one into the end zone.

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Speaker 3: DK metcalf Nick and I we talked about it on

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Speaker 3: the left side with Jimmy Jimmy Ward like that is

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Speaker 3: one of the stronger aspects of their defense's receivers on

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Speaker 3: the left side, and DK just blasted them for a touchdown.

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Speaker 3: And I'm not sure if it was just Seattle falling

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Speaker 3: apart in the second half or if it was San

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Speaker 3: Francisco imposing their will, but that first half kind of

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Speaker 3: made me a little bit worried as well about San

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Speaker 3: Francisco's chances going forward.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the second round of picks.

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Speaker 4: We're going to go back to Saturday Night, Brandon Eagles Giants.

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Speaker 1: You have an angle on this game.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So I went with fading the one seed in

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Speaker 5: the first game, and I'm gonna I'm gonna take the

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Speaker 5: one seat here in the second game. But I'm to

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Speaker 5: take the Eagles just the first half minus three and

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Speaker 5: a half against the Giants. So let me just acknowledge

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Speaker 5: up front all the trends I said fading the Chiefs,

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Speaker 5: they're all here for the Giants. They're stronger for the

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Speaker 5: Giants because it's a division angle. We've got the Danny

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Speaker 5: Dimes road dog angle. Every trend I can find, it's

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Speaker 5: literally like nine to zero for the Giants, and it

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Speaker 5: terrifies me. And it's why I'm staying away from the

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Speaker 5: whole line, because maybe something wonky happens, maybe we get

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Speaker 5: a back door something like that.

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Speaker 1: But which, by the way, real quick seventeen and five.

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Speaker 1: Danny Dimes is a road dog.

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Speaker 5: But I can't get away from just the mismatch that

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Speaker 5: I see the matchup on the field. I normally trust

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Speaker 5: my numbers, but this is an absolute glaring mismatch to me.

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Speaker 5: Here are some of the things I see. The Giants

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Speaker 5: are dead last in the NFL against the run defensively,

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Speaker 5: thirty first by EPA, thirty first explosive runs. Guess who

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Speaker 5: leads the league and EPA and DVA rushing. It's the Eagles.

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Speaker 5: Of course, Jalen Hurts is healthy. He's off the report.

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Speaker 5: Now they're gonna run all over this team like they

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Speaker 5: did during the regular season. Eagles number three in success

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Speaker 5: rate by play versus number twenty eight success rate for

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Speaker 5: the Giants defense. Giants are the worst defense on first down.

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Speaker 5: I think they're not going to get off the field here.

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Speaker 5: The one star they have on that team, Dexter Lawrence.

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Speaker 5: We saw how he dominated last week. Well, Jason Kelsey

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Speaker 5: is the best weapon you could ask for against Dexter Lawrence.

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Speaker 5: He is probably the best center in the league and

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Speaker 5: anchoring a really strong Eagles line. I think the Eagles

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Speaker 5: offense will be all to do just about anything they

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Speaker 5: want in this game. I can't figure out what the Giants'

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Speaker 5: answers are. And on the other side, Daniel Jones for

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Speaker 5: all his improvement number one pass defense he's gonna face

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Speaker 5: this week, including number one in pressure rate, and the

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Speaker 5: Giants ole line has improved run blocking, but they're still

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Speaker 5: bottom five protecting the passer, so you can't pass from

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Speaker 5: behind because he's going to be under pressure all a game.

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Speaker 5: We might get some goods of old Daniel Jones if

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Speaker 5: things go poorly. I think the Eagles come out, get

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Speaker 5: on the front foot, and get moving. While you look

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Speaker 5: back at the Giants, and I think that a lot

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Speaker 5: of people are buying high on them right now because

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Speaker 5: they beat the Vikings. But we said, oh, you're the

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Speaker 5: Vikings aren't good. Why are we excited that they like

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Speaker 5: barely outlasted the Vikings by one bad Kirk Cousins read

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Speaker 5: at the end of the game. Last eleven Giants games

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Speaker 5: they have four wins, only four since like early October,

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Speaker 5: and all four games that they won were against the

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Speaker 5: bottom twelve team by DVA and by offensive DVA, yes,

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Speaker 5: including the Vikings. Remember they're not good, so it's not

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Speaker 5: that exciting that they beat them. The teams played twice

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Speaker 5: second one didn't really matter, Giants were resting, But in

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Speaker 5: those games, the Eagles were up twenty four to seven

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Speaker 5: at a half time. In the first game, the one

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Speaker 5: that did matter, they're up forty eight to fourteen until

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Speaker 5: garbage time. Second game sixteen to nothing at the half,

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Speaker 5: twenty two to nine till garbage time. So I just

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Speaker 5: think the Eagles come out and look great early. I'll

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Speaker 5: take the first half because all the trends. Who knows,

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Speaker 5: maybe we get a backdoor something funky at the end.

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Speaker 5: I'll just get my money and.

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Speaker 2: Get out of there.

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Speaker 5: Eagles first half twelve and five against the spread this season,

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Speaker 5: second best of any team in the league, eleven and

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Speaker 5: three when hurts it's healthy, and two to zero against

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Speaker 5: the Giants, So I like the first half. Giants first

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Speaker 5: quarter offense and defense both bottom five in the league,

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Speaker 5: and the Eagles are number three offense and defense in

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Speaker 5: the first half, So I think we get out to

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Speaker 5: a quick start and maybe something goes weird late, but

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Speaker 5: I won't care. I'll have my money already.

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Speaker 4: As far as a plan of attack, Brandon, I'm curious.

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Speaker 4: I know Daniel Jones ran for seventy plus yards in

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Speaker 4: the first half against the Vikings. Just trying to imagine

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Speaker 4: what you'd expect from the Giants offensively. Do we get

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Speaker 4: more of what we saw on the second half against

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Speaker 4: the Vikings because the Eagles will, in every effort possible,

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Speaker 4: try to take away the run from Jones.

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Speaker 5: You know, the Eagles have not been good defending the

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Speaker 5: quarterbacks running either, so I think Jones running, I think

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Speaker 5: they will run. The eagles weakest spot is the run defense.

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Speaker 5: So if I'm the Giants, that's absolutely the plan. Run

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Speaker 5: the ball, keep the Eagles defense getting tired out, keep

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Speaker 5: the Eagles offense on the sideline, Saquon running, Jones running bootlegs,

378
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Speaker 5: chew up the clock. You want to limit the possessions,

379
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Speaker 5: keep it close. Giants have played eighteen games, fourteen of

380
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Speaker 5: them have been one score games, and would basically cover

381
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Speaker 5: this number. That's why I don't want the whole game spread.

382
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Speaker 5: But the Giants have been a team that plays well

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Speaker 5: late in games. Their numbers get much better in the

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Speaker 5: second half, while Eagles fade a little bit. So I

385
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Speaker 5: think the plan is run the ball and shorten the

386
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Speaker 5: game and try to just have a chance late. So

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Speaker 5: I don't know they're going to be successful with that,

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Speaker 5: but that's what I would expect.

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Speaker 2: The Eagles at Giants. The week that they absolutely stamped

390
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Speaker 2: them out, that line was seven and a half, and

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Speaker 2: now they're seven and a half again at home, which

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Speaker 2: I think this is totally a and no one knows

393
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Speaker 2: Jalen hurts his health where if he comes out and

394
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Speaker 2: he starts looking and he looks like he's one hundred percent,

395
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Speaker 2: like live opportunity by the seven and a half is

396
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Speaker 2: just a steal. It hurts, is one hundred percent healthy,

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Speaker 2: And I don't think the books know. I don't think

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Speaker 2: we know. I think they're kind of just middling it,

399
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Speaker 2: where like they just don't know where it could go

400
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 2: up or could go down based off of reports that

401
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Speaker 2: come out where like this is an absolute steal of

402
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Speaker 2: a line. It hurts is one hundred percent. But if

403
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Speaker 2: he's not, anything's off still When this is the divisional playoffs,

404
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Speaker 2: Like there's an argument for every side this weekend, right

405
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Speaker 2: and honestly every side there isn't a wrong argument. There's

406
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Speaker 2: no questions about motivation, et cetera. Where like this is

407
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Speaker 2: if it Hurts is one hundred percent, this line is wrong.

408
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Speaker 2: But if he's not this line, his things get dicey.

409
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Speaker 5: So yeah, I agree on that, and it certainly if

410
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Speaker 5: Hurts isn't healthy, then taking the first half is maybe

411
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Speaker 5: not where you want to be because he's going to

412
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Speaker 5: come out rusty and maybe you take a while to

413
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Speaker 5: get into it. I think if that's the case, the

414
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Speaker 5: longer this stay is close, the more you like the

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Speaker 5: Giants to cover and maybe steal the game. Anyway, So

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Speaker 5: if it's not happening early, I don't want the Eagles anyway.

417
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Speaker 5: If it is happening, I want them to just come

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Speaker 5: on blast them right away. So that's the angle here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we'll know very I think we'll know

420
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Speaker 2: in the first drive on what's going to be happening,

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Speaker 2: and you.

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Speaker 1: Know, for what it's worth.

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Speaker 4: Brandon brought up the meeting when they were up twenty

424
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Speaker 4: four to seven, add half in the Meadowlands first four

425
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Speaker 4: drives for the Giants punt, punt, punt, punt, and for

426
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Speaker 4: the Eagles, first three drives touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, And just

427
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Speaker 4: looking at the first drive altogether, fourteen plays eighty four

428
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Speaker 4: yards took up eight minutes of time and there was

429
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Speaker 4: no deep shot by Jalen Hurts taking off, you know,

430
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Speaker 4: to short throws over the middle, sideline throws, nothing over

431
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Speaker 4: the top, and to ease him back in even if

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Speaker 4: he is one hundred percent, if it's just picking apart

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Speaker 4: that Giants defense that way, that boats well too, because

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Speaker 4: if they're scoring and they're taking time off the clock,

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Speaker 4: that does not help the Giants, who actually had some

436
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 4: pretty sustained drives in the game against the Vikings. But

437
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 4: Eagles are a little bit of a different a different animal. Okay,

438
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 4: on to Jill, You've got a touchdown pick in this game.

439
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, And one final note about Jalen, I just wanted

440
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 3: to mention that he was plus one ten to score

441
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 3: a touchdown in that matchup we're talking about that was

442
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 3: in the Meadowlands, and he's minus one twenty right now

443
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 3: at Fanduels. So I'm thinking that Fanduels maybe thinking he's

444
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 3: a little more confident about his ability to run the ball.

445
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: But I'm actually going to be looking on the giant

446
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: side to score a touchdown. I'm going to be looking

447
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 3: at the new Giants wide receiver one, Isaiah Hodgens at

448
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 3: plus two to twenty to score a touchdown. And he's

449
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 3: got five touchdowns now in his last six games if

450
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 3: you exclude the Week eighteen game that he didn't play,

451
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 3: nine red zone targets in that stretch. So very efficient

452
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 3: with what he's doing with the ball when he gets it,

453
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 3: and all his touchdowns have been scored in the red zone.

454
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 3: He actually scored in that game. We were just referring

455
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 3: to versus the Eagles, and I figured and I couldn't

456
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 3: remember it right off the top of my head. Back

457
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,439
Speaker 3: to look on next gen and stats just to see

458
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 3: how he scored that touchdown. Actually scored it on an

459
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 3: out route on Darius Slay. What are the few touchdowns

460
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 3: that he allowed this season? So he finished that game

461
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 3: with six targets. The game was already twenty one nothing,

462
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 3: So the fact that he was still being involved in

463
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,880
Speaker 3: that offense, I thought was very encouraging. Really has emerged

464
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 3: again as a wide receiver one. He's playing over eighty

465
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 3: five percent of the snaps and the Eagles they're a

466
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 3: funnel type of defense. If you've got Sleigh and Bradberry,

467
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,160
Speaker 3: they're going to try to make sure to take away

468
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 3: the outside and they're very vulnerable over the middle, which

469
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 3: is what we saw in the second half as well,

470
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 3: where they were maybe a little more vulnerable against the run.

471
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,440
Speaker 3: So they've allowed sixteen touchdowns to wide receivers this season,

472
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 3: which I think is notable. And if the Giants get

473
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 3: inside the ten yard line, Daniel Jones has shown that

474
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 3: he likes to roll out and then try to find

475
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 3: receivers and Isaiah Hodgens has been the biggest beneficiary.

476
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 2: From this spot.

477
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 3: So I love him to score against the Eagles. Now,

478
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 3: I just will say, as an alternative, if you're not

479
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 3: feeling Hodgens, you could look at his teammate Richie James,

480
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 3: who also winds up exclusively on the slot. You can

481
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 3: get him anywhere between plus three hundred and plus three fifty.

482
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 3: And the other guy that I don't even want to

483
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 3: bet it just because it's so narrative driven, but I

484
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 3: know that everybody is going to be on it this

485
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 3: week is Boston Scott. He's around plus three sixty plus

486
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 3: three seventy. He has scored in every single game he's

487
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 3: ever played against the Giants. He has played eight games

488
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 3: against them, ten touchdowns. I'm personally not going to put

489
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 3: a ton of money on it. I might just sprinkle

490
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 3: on it, but I'm just putting that out there for

491
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 3: people to remember that Boston Scott is the Giant Killer.

492
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 4: So Eddie hope for Darius Slayton at plus three ten,

493
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 4: did he cross your mind at all? I know it's

494
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 4: been Hodgens and James, They've been the guys Jones has

495
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 4: gone to.

496
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 3: He has been on my hate list now for three

497
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 3: consecutive weeks when we do Giants games, and I the

498
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 3: outside receiver for the Giants has just not been an

499
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: effective position for them this season. They've been very good

500
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: with the RPO and with touchdowns over the slot. We

501
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 3: even saw Bellinger, for example, score against the Vikings last week.

502
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 3: That's where Daniel Jones makes his money. Darius Slayton at

503
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 3: the beginning of the year, you ask Giants fans, they

504
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 3: wanted that guy, cut, traded, whatever, and then by mid

505
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,120
Speaker 3: season he was still kind of you know, he had

506
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 3: a couple touchdowns, a couple of long catches, but he

507
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 3: was never seeing less than like plus two to fifty

508
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 3: to plus two seventy five odds, which I think is

509
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 3: telling when you're a wide receiver one in an offense.

510
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 3: And now, even if you're giving me plus three hundred,

511
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 3: I would need at least plus four to fifty going

512
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 3: against these outside corners from the Eagles.

513
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 4: Okay, Darius Slayton hate list won't bring him up again

514
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 4: unless the Giants move on.

515
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 3: Well, I wasn't try to be mean about it. It

516
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 3: was just more like, he's just I don't love the

517
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 3: value on it. I don't like that they're valuing him

518
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 3: right now in the plus two seventy five to plus

519
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 3: three twenty five range, and that's just not enough for

520
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 3: me for when so many other better options on this

521
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 3: offense exist.

522
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 1: Well, you started your sentence with he's on the hate list.

523
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 4: I hope I was hoping to get angry, Jill, because

524
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 4: when you get upset, you get upset.

525
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,120
Speaker 5: Hey, well, classic Canadian with a hate list here, am

526
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 5: I right?

527
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: We're gonna not touchdown. But Luke, you have a player

528
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 1: prop bangle in this game. I do.

529
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: My next one will be a side, but this one's

530
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 2: gonna be Devonte Smith over sixty two and a half

531
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 2: receiving yards, which he's gone over this number in six

532
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 2: straight games. He said, eight plus targets in nine straight games,

533
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 2: and really, there isn't going to be a receiver hotter

534
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 2: than him, where this is going to be very much

535
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 2: a numbers play. I just think it's too low. Since

536
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: Week eleven, he's been averaging eighty nine yards a game,

537
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 2: eleven plus targets a game, and on the season he's

538
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 2: averaging seventy yards.

539
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 1: So it's just it's just too.

540
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 2: Low in a game that I think. I think Jalen

541
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 2: Hurts is going to be one hundred two games he's

542
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 2: played the Giants, he's had over thirty attempts a game,

543
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 2: which exceeds his average on the season. And you've got

544
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 2: Dori Jackson back, who we would assume is going to

545
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: shadow or put a lot of his attention on AJ Brown,

546
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 2: which I think is part of the reason that DeVante

547
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 2: has been popping.

548
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 1: Off as of late.

549
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 2: But with the dor on Aj, that means DeVante is

550
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 2: going to get Holmes a Moreau, which are great matchups

551
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 2: for the majority of the receivers in this league. But

552
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 2: at sixty two and a half where the Giants have

553
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 2: seemed to be a pass funnel, even though Brandon had.

554
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 2: Brandon's rushing stats really go against that now, so I'm

555
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: actually gonna disregard that point. But yeah, DeVante over sixty

556
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 2: two and a half too low. He's no O receivers

557
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,360
Speaker 2: hotter since the end of the season. His averages far

558
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 2: exceed this, especially as of late. Yeah, with a healthy

559
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 2: jail in overseas two and a half.

560
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I love this one. The Giants middle of the

561
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 5: field last week was just begging to be taken by

562
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 5: anyone who would take it. We have the TJ. Hockinson

563
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 5: over last week. DeVante Smith, what he was in college

564
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 5: was just tearing up the slot over the middle, so

565
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 5: I think the Eagles probably use him a lot that way. Brendan,

566
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 5: you asked what should the Giants do offensively? Well, I

567
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 5: think defensively is you have to bear. You have to

568
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 5: dare Jalen Hurts to beat you, right, You have to

569
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 5: try to take away their running and say, okay, Jalen,

570
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 5: you have to be the run. You have to beat

571
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,360
Speaker 5: us with the arm. So I think that bodes well

572
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 5: for DeVante Smith and actually too, I'll mention right now

573
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 5: at some bucks, you can bet Super Bowl MVP right now.

574
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 5: The one name I've played right now is DeVante Smith

575
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 5: seventy five to one, for exact same reasons you said,

576
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 5: I don't think Jalen Hurts is as a lock MVP

577
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 5: for the team. I think there'd be a lot of

578
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 5: attention on him. On AJ Brown and Deavante Smith has

579
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 5: been a red hot. That's a name I think probably

580
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,479
Speaker 5: would be like ten to one, twelve to one if

581
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 5: it's actually in the Super Bowl. So if you like

582
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 5: the Eagles to make a run here, I think that's

583
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 5: a name you want to keep backing the.

584
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 4: Sake of for the sake of clarity, because I know

585
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 4: this doesn't really happen as much with the sides and totals,

586
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 4: but Luke totals up to sixty four and a half.

587
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 4: Is there a thresholder you cut yourself off on Smith?

588
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: I mean, just a question.

589
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 2: I would say probably like sixty eight I would say

590
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 2: is probably a threshold, But at that point I'm probably

591
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 2: playing on alternates. Like it's tough to say a threshold

592
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 2: when you're betting a Preyer prop and you're betting alternate

593
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 2: overs as well, where it's like would you not bet

594
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 2: this alternate over at Yeah, so sixty eight and a half,

595
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 2: let's just say, is a threshold, but have fun with

596
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 2: alternates as well.

597
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 3: And I was just going to point out that in

598
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 3: both matchups he had sixty four or more receiving yards.

599
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 3: And part of the reason why Davante and aj really

600
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 3: are just going to crush this defense is because they

601
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 3: put their the most predictable defense in the NFL. They

602
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 3: play the most man coverage in the NFL, and that

603
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 3: is where DeVante feasts. That's actually where six of his

604
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 3: seven touchdowns have been scored is against man coverage as

605
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 3: opposed to his own coverage. So yeah, I'm with you, man.

606
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 3: I feel like he's going to have a huge day

607
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 3: against the Giants.

608
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: Okay, last round of picks.

609
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 4: This one, this particular round of picks is going to

610
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 4: center around one game. It's the Sunday game between Buffalo

611
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 4: and Cincinnati. We finally get this game. We did not

612
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 4: see it week seventeen, Monday night. I think you're all

613
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 4: aware of that by now, Brandon. This is a pick

614
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 4: that you actually had for that game that was going

615
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 4: to be of course in Cincinnati. This one's in Buffalo.

616
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 4: You're going back to it, though, and there might be

617
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 4: a little bit of overreaction on the line based on

618
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 4: last week results.

619
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 5: What do you have, Yeah, I'm going back to my

620
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 5: favorite pick from that game and a pick that you've

621
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 5: heard on this podcast a bunch of times.

622
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 2: Now.

623
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 5: It's my old faithful prop. Give me the Josh Allen

624
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 5: the rushing yards over in any big Bills game. Buffalo, clearly,

625
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 5: when you watch their games, saves Josh Allen for the

626
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 5: big moments. They try to limit the runs, especially the

627
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 5: designed runs, limits scrambling a little bit when they're playing

628
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 5: you know, I was going to say the Jets and Dolphins,

629
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 5: but those teams are good now. But you know, a

630
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 5: normal year playing the dregs of the league, then normally,

631
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 5: Josh Allen, you just can't like, all right, let's save

632
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 5: things and just get out of here with the win. Personally,

633
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 5: I think that's what happened last week. Four runs, twenty yards.

634
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 5: We're playing Scaler Thompson. We got this one in the bag.

635
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 5: We're two touchdown favorites. I think the Bills tweated that

636
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 5: as not really a playoff game, and I think that's

637
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 5: why they saved his legs. But look at the numbers.

638
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 5: If you look at when Josh Allen last two years

639
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 5: against a non playoff team, twenty two games, he's run

640
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 5: six point four times for just under forty yards in

641
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 5: those games on average. Fourteen games against playoff teams, those

642
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 5: go up to nine point one runs fifty seven point

643
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 5: three yards, So as nearly a fifty percent increase in

644
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 5: yardage doesn't sound like much from forty to fifty seven,

645
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,719
Speaker 5: but at that level, that is a huge difference. In

646
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 5: those fourteen playoff games or fourteen games against playoff teams,

647
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 5: forty four yards are over ten of the fourteen, and

648
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 5: at least fifty nine rushing yards and over half of them.

649
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 5: So I think this line is way too low. In

650
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 5: playoff games, actual playoff games Allen was played, he's at

651
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 5: fifty four rushing yards or more five of the seven

652
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 5: now average fifty six. That mid fifties, you keep hearing,

653
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 5: That's where I would put this line if I was

654
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 5: setting it. We opened at forty and a half. I

655
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 5: can't believe it.

656
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: I bet it right away.

657
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 5: It was at multiple books. Now we're seeing forty two

658
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 5: and a half, forty four, forty five. It's starting to climb.

659
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 5: I don't think it's going to hit fifty. I personally

660
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 5: feel great about anything below fifty. We just gave all

661
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 5: the numbers out in the fifties. I've played, Like Luke said,

662
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 5: I'm on alternate overs here, so you can check the

663
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 5: app for sixty plus seventy five plus.

664
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 3: I don't know.

665
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 5: We get to seventy five, but he's gone to fifty

666
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 5: nine or more and over half the game, So I

667
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 5: like the sixty there as well. Bengals are bottom five

668
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 5: against design quarterback runs. And by the way, that game

669
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 5: that we saw what like nine minutes of scrub from

670
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 5: the internet, it's gone now. You can't watch the film.

671
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 5: There's no box score, there's no stats. However, we did

672
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 5: get a little glimpse of that game. We got one

673
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 5: Bill's drive. This was my pick then. So I was

674
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 5: watching Josh Allen ran two times on the first drive

675
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 5: for fourteen yards. That was gonna put us well on

676
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 5: paced hitter over then I deserve some money. I was

677
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 5: gonna win that bet. I'm winning it this week. Josh

678
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 5: Allen over forty two and a half, forty five and

679
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 5: a half. Whatever you need to get to get the

680
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 5: lowest one you can find, get the rushing yards.

681
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 4: The sixty plus line right now on FanDuel is a

682
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 4: plus one seventy eight seventy plus plus three ten, so

683
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 4: on and.

684
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: So forth, very very similar to.

685
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 4: When they were going to meet when they did meet

686
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 4: Monday night, Week seventeen. Okay, as Eminem likes to say,

687
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 4: back to the lab again, Yo, here comes Jill Galants once.

688
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 1: Again going to his guy. I mean, I'm a bury.

689
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 4: Just Dawson Knox touchdown. Come on, give it to us again, please.

690
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, and again. This will just basically feel like a

691
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 3: repeat of last week's explanation, but it does differ a

692
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 3: little bit because obviously we have a different matchup. But yes,

693
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 3: we are gonna go with Dawson Knox at plus two

694
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 3: to ten because anything over plus two hundred for me

695
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 3: is an auto bed. And I've been saying this pretty

696
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 3: much all season because he's been above pears two hundred

697
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 3: in nine games this year, and he has scored in

698
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 3: six of them now nine, including most recent playoff game.

699
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 3: So the difference though is that this matchup now is

700
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 3: against the Bengals, and this is one of the few

701
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 3: times where you'll see my co host Nick Kiffin and

702
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 3: I from the Touchdown Show. We deviate on opinion because

703
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,400
Speaker 3: he very much will look at the stats on the

704
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 3: numbers and say, look the Bengals, they've only allowed three

705
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 3: touchdowns and tight ends this year. They actually do excel

706
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 3: against receivers within the slot.

707
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 2: But my.

708
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,399
Speaker 3: Disagreement or my objective, my objective rather is at their

709
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 3: bottom ten and receptions and yards two tight ends. And

710
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 3: this is Dawson Knox. This isn't just your average scrub

711
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 3: slot receiver. This is a man who has a proven

712
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 3: playoff performer five touchdowns in seven career playoff games and

713
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 3: five playoffs home games, he has scored four times. So

714
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 3: for me, immediately, I'm looking at a guy who has

715
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 3: just been a strong red zone threat. They keep giving

716
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 3: it to me over plus two hundred. They will not

717
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 3: correct the odds. I'm gonna have to keep betting it

718
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 3: until something changes, either he doesn't score, or until they

719
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 3: put it below plus two hundred, and even then I

720
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 3: might still consider it. But I will say that I

721
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,800
Speaker 3: also think that since he's just gonna have a big

722
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 3: hard time trying to contain Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis,

723
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 3: and I think that will allow more opportunities for a

724
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 3: Dawson Knox to be able to score in the end zone.

725
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 3: So Dawson Knox, who we did hit last week on

726
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 3: the Best Bets Podcast, I'm gonna be taking him again

727
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:39,760
Speaker 3: at plus two.

728
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 1: Ten can't really add much to that.

729
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 4: Back to the well, back to the lab, all right, Luke,

730
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 4: take us home your last one.

731
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 2: So this one's scary, but I'm gonna go with the

732
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 2: Bills minus five hosting the Bengals as well, which five

733
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,839
Speaker 2: five and a half. If you don't have interest in

734
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 2: five five and a half scares you off. I don't

735
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 2: know what you're doing. But honestly, this is just going

736
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 2: to be and it is terrifying because I faded the

737
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 2: Bengals every round last year in the playoffs and got gutted.

738
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 2: And I'm back to the well and I told myself

739
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 2: I was gonna do this. But here we are, and

740
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 2: you just got to go with logic that they the

741
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 2: Bengals have just been defined since the Bucks game. They

742
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 2: won the Bucks game that they were losing by a

743
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 2: wump sum Met Haalf and had all these turnovers and

744
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,800
Speaker 2: ended up covering Patriots Stevenson fumbles on the goal line.

745
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 2: And then you have the Ravens who fumbled on the

746
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 2: goal line as well, where last week, like I totally

747
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 2: thought the revenge to win that game, and then all

748
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 2: of a sudden, you're leaping for an end zone two

749
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: yards out and the other team's taking it the other way.

750
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: But this really is just hitting a Bengals team that,

751
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 2: like nothing on paper makes any sense in terms of

752
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 2: how they can, how they're covering this numbers which they are,

753
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 2: and then you got their offensive line, which if you

754
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 2: look on any site, each offensive lineman is probably going

755
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 2: to be high. I didn't read, and it's just like

756
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 2: I know everyone says a Burrows release is the lowest

757
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 2: in the league, but at one point like that can

758
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 2: only last so long against this the Bills offense that

759
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 2: it's going to be operating on all cylinders, and if

760
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 2: anyone as home field, it's going to be the Bills.

761
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 2: I was on the Bills when they played two weeks ago,

762
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 2: and I'm going to be on them again. So Bill's

763
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 2: minus five hosting the Bengals Sunday.

764
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 5: All right, I think you mentioned like Burrow's quick speed getting.

765
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 2: The ball out.

766
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 5: I think the Bills probably disguised coverages a lot here

767
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 5: just to try to slow the process down, and I

768
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 5: think we probably see a little more zone to burrows,

769
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 5: not as good against the zone. I like the Bills here.

770
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 5: We talked about this on Sunday night, and I took

771
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 5: this when I first popped at three and a half.

772
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 5: Here's my question for you, Luke. Buffalo this season, I've

773
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 5: noticed really really not a fast starting team. Last week

774
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 5: they came out quick, but usually first quarter they've been

775
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 5: kind of slow. That game we did see against the

776
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 5: Bengals they give up an opening drive touchdown. Cincinnati was

777
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 5: driving again. For the season, Buffalo first quarter has been

778
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 5: by far their worst DBA, their twenty seventh defense, nineteenth offense.

779
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 5: We're sitting out five. I think you probably would agree

780
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:16,240
Speaker 5: the line moves a point either way by kickoff. Would

781
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 5: you consider I haven't made up my mind on this yet.

782
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 5: I like the Bills, but I don't know if I

783
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 5: want to take the five where the six if it

784
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:26,439
Speaker 5: gets there. Would you wait and see about Cincinnati maybe

785
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 5: getting off some points in a back and forth game

786
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 5: and hope that you could get a better live line

787
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 5: for Buffalo or is it too risky and you just

788
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:34,399
Speaker 5: want to get your money in while you.

789
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 2: Can No I'm definitely one hundred percent proponent of a

790
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 2: waiting where, yeah, Bengals score on the first drive, you're

791
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 2: going to get this at a totally better number. So

792
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 2: the logic behind where there? Who knows, Like, if you're

793
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 2: betting a unit, take put half on the minus five

794
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 2: and then save the other half for maybe a live opportunity.

795
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 1: But yeah, or.

796
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 2: Throw the bills in a teaser whatever it is, but

797
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 2: which there's some interesting teasers this week that feel too

798
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 2: good to be true. But yeah, one hundred percent with that.

799
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 4: Okay, that's it, fellas great work is always. Let's recap

800
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 4: the picks. Brandon Anderson is on Jacksonville plus nine. He

801
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 4: likes the Eagles first half minus three and a half

802
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 4: against the Giants, and he's on Josh Allen's over rushing

803
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 4: yards forty two and a half. Jill's on Christian Kirk

804
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 4: anytime touchdown plus one ninety, Isaiah Hodgens of the Giants

805
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 4: anytime touchdown plus two to seventy five, and he's on

806
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 4: Dawson Knox once again plus two hundred or greater.

807
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 1: You better get on it.

808
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 4: Dawson Knox plus two to ten against the Bengals, and

809
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,240
Speaker 4: Luke you're on Dallas plus three and a half, Davante

810
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 4: Smith over sixty two and a half receiving yards and.

811
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 1: Bills minus five. All right, that'll do it.

812
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 4: Here for the Action Network podcast, our Divisional Round Best

813
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 4: Bets episode presented by Fandel.

814
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 1: As the NFL season it comes to a.

815
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 4: Close, with Action Network on the Action Network Podcast for

816
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 4: some special player prop episodes.

817
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 1: From Raybond and Kerner each week.

818
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 4: They'll have that the first player prop episode for the

819
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 4: Divisional Round will be out tomorrow morning, so keep an

820
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 4: eye out for that.

821
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 1: And if it's DFSS that you more pertains to.

822
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 4: Your style, check out Chris and Sean over on the

823
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 4: Fantasy Flex Pod from Action Thanks to Brandon, Jill and

824
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 4: Luke for joining me. Thanks everyone for listening. Best of

825
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 4: luck with your bets this weekend. We'll see you on

826
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 4: the recap episode comes to you on Monday morning right

827
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 4: here on the Action Network Podcast.

828
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly. If you or

829
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is

830
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler