WEBVTT - China’s Best Moves, and How to React to a Dealer’s Mistake 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:28.524 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:28.564 --> 0:00:31.244 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:30.844 --> 0:00:33.604 And I'm Nate Selver. Today on the show, we'll be 0:00:33.604 --> 0:00:37.444 talking a little bit of China. China, China, how should 0:00:37.444 --> 0:00:40.444 the second biggest economy in the world respond as the 0:00:40.524 --> 0:00:43.204 US becomes increasingly geopolitically unstable? 0:00:43.644 --> 0:00:47.284 And after that we will be pivoting to poker and 0:00:47.524 --> 0:00:51.484 a controversy that happened last week about an incorrect hand 0:00:51.684 --> 0:00:54.524 winning a pot in a very, very big spot. What 0:00:54.604 --> 0:00:58.044 should players and others responsibility be in a situation like that? 0:00:58.484 --> 0:01:01.324 Speak up players if the dealer focus up anyway. We'll 0:01:01.364 --> 0:01:03.484 get into that in the second second. 0:01:04.084 --> 0:01:16.124 Somebody has opinions. Yeah, let's talk about China. We are 0:01:16.204 --> 0:01:21.124 taping this on Monday, March tenth. China has just announced 0:01:21.124 --> 0:01:25.844 retaliatory tariffs on the United States taking effect immediately, but 0:01:25.924 --> 0:01:28.644 they will not be affecting goods that arrive in the 0:01:28.644 --> 0:01:32.124 country before April twelfth, Nate, Every single time we tape, 0:01:32.164 --> 0:01:34.124 there seems to be more and more news coming out, 0:01:34.204 --> 0:01:38.364 but all of it points to one reality, which is 0:01:38.404 --> 0:01:41.804 that the US is just trying to take a step 0:01:41.884 --> 0:01:46.804 back from its role in global politics, or rather in 0:01:46.924 --> 0:01:49.244 its role in building alliances and trying to be a 0:01:49.284 --> 0:01:53.004 diplomatic force for the good, creating somewhat of a power vacuum. 0:01:53.444 --> 0:01:58.124 And China as the world's second largest economy, there are 0:01:58.164 --> 0:02:01.684 some opportunities here. There's a lot going on between the 0:02:01.844 --> 0:02:04.244 US and China. I think it would be really interesting 0:02:04.284 --> 0:02:06.684 to try to, you know, flip the game theory. Last 0:02:06.724 --> 0:02:09.364 week I talked about game theory from the US perspective. 0:02:09.764 --> 0:02:12.764 Let's talk about it from the Chinese perspective and see 0:02:12.764 --> 0:02:15.644 what this moment in time means for how China should 0:02:15.644 --> 0:02:19.084 be thinking about its future and constructing its economic and 0:02:19.164 --> 0:02:21.284 foreign policies. What do we think about this? 0:02:22.244 --> 0:02:26.484 Uh, China's a real country either not this cute little 0:02:27.244 --> 0:02:30.764 puppy like Canada or something like that. They are the 0:02:30.764 --> 0:02:34.604 second largest economy in the world, the second largest you know, 0:02:35.044 --> 0:02:38.684 effectively military power in the world. They can do a 0:02:38.684 --> 0:02:42.084 lot of things to contradict the United States interest if 0:02:42.084 --> 0:02:44.244 we're in a zero some game when AI and other stuff, 0:02:44.284 --> 0:02:47.004 and like, it's a moment for she to think big 0:02:47.124 --> 0:02:50.764 and to think long term. And you know, because these 0:02:50.764 --> 0:02:54.364 things that Trump is doing, we'll take a long time 0:02:54.404 --> 0:02:58.884 to undo right, if Trump quit tomorrow and went back 0:02:58.924 --> 0:03:00.924 to Marrow Lago and Jade Vance takes over, then a 0:03:00.924 --> 0:03:04.204 Democrat wins I don't know, fucking Gavin Newsom or some 0:03:04.244 --> 0:03:07.964 shit like that, Right, a Democrat wins in four years. 0:03:08.604 --> 0:03:11.924 Even this six weeks, right, these two months now almost 0:03:12.444 --> 0:03:14.484 still would damage America's credibility, I. 0:03:14.404 --> 0:03:17.844 Think absolutely absolutely, And I think that's really important to remember. 0:03:18.124 --> 0:03:20.604 It's much faster to break things than it is to 0:03:20.604 --> 0:03:23.044 build them back up. They're also doing more. China has 0:03:23.084 --> 0:03:24.764 a lot of levers that it can push that it's 0:03:24.804 --> 0:03:30.084 not just tariffs. They're also blocking fifteen US companies from 0:03:30.164 --> 0:03:33.004 buying Chinese products, and they're just saying, you know, you 0:03:33.044 --> 0:03:35.164 want to play with us, we'll play with you. And 0:03:35.324 --> 0:03:38.004 what you have to understand about China is it can actually, 0:03:38.044 --> 0:03:40.764 like very strategically, can do like you know, it can 0:03:40.804 --> 0:03:43.804 do whatever the fuck it wants basically. So what they're 0:03:43.804 --> 0:03:47.644 doing is they're trying to mitigate the effects of some 0:03:47.684 --> 0:03:51.284 tariffs by saying, oh, okay, fine, the US post tariffs 0:03:51.284 --> 0:03:53.644 on you. Great, We're going to reduce your taxes. 0:03:53.844 --> 0:03:53.964 Right. 0:03:54.004 --> 0:03:56.684 It can like just very surgically say okay, this company 0:03:56.724 --> 0:03:59.004 that's now being you know, subject to tariffs in the 0:03:59.084 --> 0:04:01.844 US has to pay fewer taxes than it did before, 0:04:01.924 --> 0:04:04.324 so that they can keep their prices the same. Right, 0:04:04.364 --> 0:04:07.324 it can push all of these buttons because it really 0:04:07.364 --> 0:04:10.964 can have this very directed approach to the economy that 0:04:11.164 --> 0:04:13.844 even with the executive orders and even with Trump trying 0:04:13.844 --> 0:04:17.444 to act more autocratically and bypassed Congress, we can't do 0:04:17.524 --> 0:04:19.484 that in the US, right, we don't have that sort 0:04:19.484 --> 0:04:23.164 of centralized power, and so that is actually something that 0:04:23.484 --> 0:04:25.684 when you're talking about game theory, who has you know, 0:04:25.804 --> 0:04:28.964 who has more muscle, who can push whom around. China 0:04:29.044 --> 0:04:31.684 can really do things that we cannot do in the 0:04:31.764 --> 0:04:32.764 United States. 0:04:33.524 --> 0:04:35.684 Yeah, and again, in terms of a share of the economy, 0:04:35.724 --> 0:04:38.724 we went over this last time with Canada and Mexico. 0:04:38.924 --> 0:04:42.284 No one country is that large a share of the 0:04:42.324 --> 0:04:43.764 US economy because we make a lot of our own 0:04:43.804 --> 0:04:50.764 stuff and our imports are diversified. So basically, China, Mexico, Canada, 0:04:50.804 --> 0:04:53.684 and the EU are between the EU as one country 0:04:53.924 --> 0:04:57.564 are the four largest exporters to the US and they're 0:04:57.564 --> 0:05:00.684 all about equal about five hundred billion dollars per year. 0:05:02.124 --> 0:05:07.364 But China has a lot of geopolitical influence, you know, 0:05:07.444 --> 0:05:10.164 the kind of smart form policy types to have perpetually 0:05:10.244 --> 0:05:12.884 been worried about China potentially invading Taiwan. They also have 0:05:12.924 --> 0:05:16.764 a lot of influence over over Ai policy. The US 0:05:16.804 --> 0:05:21.084 is concerned about a potential race with China on Ai. 0:05:22.004 --> 0:05:24.924 But yeah, one thing we're trying to do is prevent China, 0:05:25.044 --> 0:05:28.444 in various ways from getting access to the most powerful 0:05:28.844 --> 0:05:32.004 semiconductor chips right a lot of which are produced ironically 0:05:32.084 --> 0:05:39.204 in Taiwan, And so there are profound geopolitical implications, and 0:05:39.444 --> 0:05:41.084 China can create a lot more problems to the United 0:05:41.124 --> 0:05:43.444 States in terms of global alliances and things like that too, 0:05:43.524 --> 0:05:46.164 especially if, like if Europe is now like like, who 0:05:46.244 --> 0:05:48.804 are friends now? Maria? Who still likes us? 0:05:49.284 --> 0:05:52.204 Who likes Russia? Russia? Russia likes US. 0:05:52.524 --> 0:05:55.244 I don't want Russia to like US. I don't want it. 0:05:55.324 --> 0:05:58.164 There's a difference between what you want and what's happening. 0:05:58.204 --> 0:06:00.364 So who are friends right now? Russia likes US? I 0:06:00.364 --> 0:06:02.724 think North Korea is probably pretty happy with the way 0:06:02.804 --> 0:06:03.644 things are going. 0:06:04.244 --> 0:06:07.964 Japan. We've left Japan alone, haven't we? I mean India, India, 0:06:07.964 --> 0:06:08.644 we seem. 0:06:08.484 --> 0:06:13.084 To leave for now, for now, for now, But we'll 0:06:13.124 --> 0:06:15.924 see what happens. Right Seriously, though we don't have many 0:06:15.924 --> 0:06:20.524 allies left. Europe is really up in arms, literally trying 0:06:20.524 --> 0:06:23.324 to be up in arms and rearm and you know, 0:06:23.444 --> 0:06:26.964 trying to figure that out. China is very not happy 0:06:27.044 --> 0:06:31.004 and is trying to show that you know what, fuck 0:06:31.084 --> 0:06:33.964 you, you cannot push us around, and we really can't push 0:06:34.004 --> 0:06:37.004 China around, by the way, Like this is an incredibly 0:06:37.284 --> 0:06:41.684 powerful economy, it's an incredibly powerful diplomatic force, you know, 0:06:41.724 --> 0:06:44.564 if you're thinking about not just the economic stuff, right, 0:06:44.804 --> 0:06:47.484 but the type of precedent that the US is setting 0:06:47.524 --> 0:06:51.284 by cozying enough to Putin and saying, oh, potentially, like 0:06:51.964 --> 0:06:54.164 let's allow Putin to take parts of Ukraine. Like we 0:06:54.164 --> 0:06:56.124 don't know what's going to happen with that right now, 0:06:56.164 --> 0:07:00.884 but that sort of precedent may actually embolden China to 0:07:01.684 --> 0:07:04.204 try something with Taiwan in a way that it hasn't 0:07:05.044 --> 0:07:07.444 in the past because it's been i think restrained by 0:07:07.484 --> 0:07:11.244 some international norms. Those norms might be eroding, so we 0:07:11.324 --> 0:07:15.604 can potentially see kind of more aggression there, and that 0:07:15.604 --> 0:07:17.764 that's also not a happy place for us to be in. 0:07:17.844 --> 0:07:21.484 Right when when we see that potential I don't know, right, 0:07:21.524 --> 0:07:23.844 I don't There's a lot of uncertainty around this, but 0:07:23.884 --> 0:07:28.484 I think that if international norms of behavior are being eroded, 0:07:28.524 --> 0:07:31.724 then that can be frightening for a lot of countries 0:07:32.004 --> 0:07:35.604 in Asia. Right. If you think that, oh, okay, this 0:07:35.724 --> 0:07:38.244 balance of power is no longer going to be held 0:07:38.284 --> 0:07:42.044 in check, then if I you know, if I were 0:07:42.124 --> 0:07:44.644 living anywhere there, I'd be a little nervous. 0:07:44.884 --> 0:07:47.364 Yeah, I mean, you know, foreign policy did not change 0:07:47.564 --> 0:07:56.444 that much from Bush to Obama to Trump one to Biden. Right, 0:07:56.484 --> 0:07:58.684 And so the United States has lots of problems. That 0:07:58.764 --> 0:08:02.684 starts stupid borers, right, it has someone economic crises that 0:08:02.724 --> 0:08:04.604 it then spreads the rest of the world. But like 0:08:05.084 --> 0:08:07.604 you know, there is more of a consensus on foreign 0:08:07.684 --> 0:08:12.564 policy then on economic policy or social policy or whatever else. Right, 0:08:12.644 --> 0:08:15.284 And like you know, it's not even like Trump necessarily 0:08:15.324 --> 0:08:21.204 has like a coherent foreign policy vision exactly. It's kind 0:08:21.204 --> 0:08:23.804 of very zero sum mentality. We talked about that before, Right, 0:08:23.844 --> 0:08:28.564 It's it leans toward isolationism. And look, you'll hear plenty 0:08:28.564 --> 0:08:30.484 of critiques of Trump on this show. I would rather 0:08:30.524 --> 0:08:33.644 have Trump err on the side of isolations and than 0:08:33.684 --> 0:08:36.564 war mongering. If those are the two choices. But like, 0:08:36.724 --> 0:08:38.484 but you know, when states don't play an active role 0:08:38.484 --> 0:08:41.764 in the world, then you know there are power vacuums 0:08:41.804 --> 0:08:45.844 that potentially can can get filled. Right And by the way, 0:08:45.884 --> 0:08:49.764 I don't think Biden was particularly effective on China or 0:08:49.764 --> 0:08:53.084 really anything in foreign policy either. Frankly, you know, Trump 0:08:53.164 --> 0:08:56.284 at least at least has a little bit of the 0:08:56.444 --> 0:08:59.844 kind of rogue state factor where you don't know what 0:08:59.884 --> 0:09:03.844 the United States would do necessarily. But but yeah, I mean, look, 0:09:03.884 --> 0:09:09.524 the stereotype of China is that they're pretty good I 0:09:09.524 --> 0:09:13.404 don't know, tacticians, like maybe the global strategy, but like, 0:09:13.444 --> 0:09:17.364 but you know they are going to understand if both 0:09:17.404 --> 0:09:20.684 to secure their own future, you know, or to kind 0:09:20.684 --> 0:09:24.284 of you know, punch at the United States in a 0:09:24.324 --> 0:09:28.964 way to slow us down in the AI race too, right, 0:09:29.044 --> 0:09:31.964 I mean that's you know, maybe the most high stakes 0:09:32.044 --> 0:09:33.084 question right now in the world. 0:09:33.324 --> 0:09:36.564 Oh. Absolutely, I mean I think that they're very tactically savvy. 0:09:36.764 --> 0:09:39.524 And it was interesting. I was having a conversation the 0:09:39.564 --> 0:09:43.724 other week kind of about some of the downstream effects 0:09:43.764 --> 0:09:46.324 of the Trump policies, and right now, you know, we're 0:09:46.364 --> 0:09:49.884 seeing absolute chaos, you know, with the NIH and the 0:09:49.884 --> 0:09:53.524 science funding. A lot of institutions, including places like you Penn, 0:09:53.684 --> 0:09:57.684 are resending offers to grad students in the sciences because 0:09:57.684 --> 0:09:59.604 they're like, oh, we can't, we can't afford you anymore. 0:09:59.724 --> 0:10:01.844 It's really bad, right, And if you think about what 0:10:01.884 --> 0:10:04.964 that means for the future of kind of science, technology, 0:10:05.244 --> 0:10:09.324 scientific development in the US, there's a potential for brain drain, 0:10:09.404 --> 0:10:10.884 and people like, well, where are people going to go? 0:10:10.924 --> 0:10:13.844 Who's funding it? Like, well, this is pretty funny, because 0:10:13.924 --> 0:10:16.484 I think this is a great strategic opportunity for China 0:10:16.524 --> 0:10:19.324 to be like me, right, we'll fund it. You come 0:10:19.364 --> 0:10:21.284 here and you can have a lot of money and 0:10:21.324 --> 0:10:24.204 you can do your research here. And I actually think 0:10:24.204 --> 0:10:26.444 that some people might take them up on it. And 0:10:26.764 --> 0:10:29.404 that would be pretty terrifying, right if we have a 0:10:29.404 --> 0:10:32.604 brain drain from the US to China, And that might 0:10:32.684 --> 0:10:35.404 happen if you cannot get your research funded, if you 0:10:35.524 --> 0:10:39.084 cannot do work here and someone else And I say 0:10:39.084 --> 0:10:40.684 that they might take them up on it, because I 0:10:40.724 --> 0:10:43.364 know people who have gone, you know, to work in 0:10:43.404 --> 0:10:45.484 the UAE, who have gone to work in a lot 0:10:45.524 --> 0:10:49.244 of places that, like you would think they would not 0:10:49.324 --> 0:10:52.404 want to work in because of their ideas about freedom, 0:10:52.444 --> 0:10:54.244 et cetera, et cetera. But they do it because they're 0:10:54.284 --> 0:10:56.844 offered a lot of money, right, and money speaks and 0:10:56.924 --> 0:11:00.884 incentive speak. And I think that China is very tactically 0:11:00.924 --> 0:11:05.644 good on all levels of figuring out where the opportunities are, 0:11:06.284 --> 0:11:08.724 where the potential kind of where the potential to get 0:11:08.724 --> 0:11:12.404 ahead is, and so that you know, I would not 0:11:12.484 --> 0:11:14.964 be surprised to see some people, you know, some some 0:11:15.204 --> 0:11:19.964 brain drain potentially happening that way. And that's an interesting 0:11:20.604 --> 0:11:22.764 thing to consider when we look at you know, ten 0:11:22.804 --> 0:11:25.404 years out, twenty years out, technology and science. 0:11:25.844 --> 0:11:30.804 If I were she, I would make Hong Kong, which 0:11:30.844 --> 0:11:35.444 is controlled because Hong Kong is one city, right, I 0:11:35.444 --> 0:11:42.364 would make that the most welcoming front imaginable to the west. Right, yep, 0:11:42.444 --> 0:11:45.164 Like it's an image play that's very smart, yeah, for 0:11:45.284 --> 0:11:47.524 like for right now, China doesn't have the image of 0:11:48.844 --> 0:11:53.684 luxury that other Asian cultures sometimes do. But this can change, 0:11:53.724 --> 0:11:57.324 you know, yeah, and it can change quickly. Korean goods 0:11:57.324 --> 0:12:02.164 have become prestigious, right, Obviously, Japanese is a very high 0:12:02.204 --> 0:12:05.204 prestige country. But you know, but those are countries that 0:12:05.244 --> 0:12:06.964 are democracy used and that have been nocratus for a 0:12:07.004 --> 0:12:09.404 long time and like you know, have like a flurish 0:12:09.404 --> 0:12:13.964 wishing artistic center, right, Like I don't you know people 0:12:14.044 --> 0:12:16.884 thought that China would democratize as it became richer, and 0:12:17.044 --> 0:12:18.764 like it kind of is that exactly? 0:12:19.364 --> 0:12:22.444 Yeah, I think that's a really interesting thing to think about. 0:12:22.724 --> 0:12:25.764 What can what can China do to make itself look 0:12:25.884 --> 0:12:30.444 more appealing to Americans right to people who want to 0:12:30.484 --> 0:12:33.724 flee And I think that that is something that they 0:12:34.004 --> 0:12:37.764 are potentially not thinking through as deeply as they should, 0:12:38.044 --> 0:12:41.564 because to me, like great game theoretic move right would 0:12:41.604 --> 0:12:44.404 be okay, yes, you know, we're sorry. Like free speech, 0:12:44.444 --> 0:12:47.844 all this great stuff, like we will embrace it. You know, 0:12:48.324 --> 0:12:51.364 Donald Trump says, you can't say these words. You can 0:12:51.404 --> 0:12:54.324 say anything here right, Come to Hong Kong. We will 0:12:54.324 --> 0:12:56.604 give you money, We will give you pretty things. It 0:12:56.644 --> 0:12:59.924 will be nice. And Hong Kong used to be a place, 0:13:00.164 --> 0:13:03.044 you know that was incredibly welcoming before all of the 0:13:03.524 --> 0:13:07.284 you know, before there were the crackdowns on free speech 0:13:07.404 --> 0:13:10.564 and everything that has happened. And in the last five 0:13:10.644 --> 0:13:13.644 or so years, Hong Kong was kind of a mecca 0:13:13.724 --> 0:13:16.124 for a lot of Western a lot of Westerners, right 0:13:16.484 --> 0:13:18.564 they they went there and they're like, oh, this isn't China, 0:13:18.644 --> 0:13:21.324 this is different. I think that doubling down on that 0:13:21.364 --> 0:13:25.124 would actually be huge and would potentially give China an 0:13:25.244 --> 0:13:27.604 edge in a lot of different things because you see 0:13:27.604 --> 0:13:31.844 that they actually can like Australia right imports. I don't 0:13:31.884 --> 0:13:35.564 know how many Chinese evs right like, there are there 0:13:35.604 --> 0:13:39.324 are markets where China is actually kind of flourishing in 0:13:39.364 --> 0:13:43.364 different countries because they have technology that they're able to 0:13:43.484 --> 0:13:45.924 kind of develop. And I think that if they double 0:13:46.004 --> 0:13:49.324 down on a lot of these things, we can we 0:13:49.404 --> 0:13:52.844 can see kind of a big change in their geopolitical 0:13:52.884 --> 0:13:55.604 standing and in the way they're perceived in the world, 0:13:56.444 --> 0:13:59.804 which which I think could be a very tactically sound 0:13:59.924 --> 0:14:03.684 play for them. And we see and kind of the 0:14:03.724 --> 0:14:06.364 ev The reason I mentioned the evs is because with 0:14:06.804 --> 0:14:09.204 you know, tariffs et cetera, et cetera, Like that's actually 0:14:09.564 --> 0:14:12.444 something that along with AI is a place where they 0:14:12.484 --> 0:14:15.524 can start developing a strategic edge right now because there 0:14:15.604 --> 0:14:19.044 is kind of this opening that hasn't existed in the past. 0:14:19.324 --> 0:14:23.164 Yeah, but of course, you know, every auto manufacturer, Eleast 0:14:23.244 --> 0:14:27.724 American ones have like global supply chains, right, So, but yeah, 0:14:27.724 --> 0:14:29.764 I mean, look, I have friends who are like literally 0:14:31.564 --> 0:14:34.724 trying to figure out how to make bets on Chinese 0:14:34.764 --> 0:14:40.404 made evs gaining market share relative to Tesla. You know, 0:14:40.564 --> 0:14:44.244 that's you know, the stakes are pretty obvious with China. 0:14:44.284 --> 0:14:47.924 Absolutely, yeah, you know, there's a way forward there where 0:14:47.924 --> 0:14:50.484 they can actually make their image much more positive for 0:14:50.524 --> 0:14:52.684 the Western mind than it is right now. And I 0:14:52.724 --> 0:14:56.404 think that they should really try to be exploring that 0:14:56.444 --> 0:14:59.644 strategically because there is a vacuum and the US right 0:14:59.644 --> 0:15:01.844 now is not looking good, right the strong man politics 0:15:01.884 --> 0:15:03.764 are not looking good. That's a great moment for she 0:15:03.884 --> 0:15:06.324 to be like, hey, we're not the strong man, We're 0:15:06.364 --> 0:15:09.004 not the bad guys. Look at us, like we can 0:15:09.004 --> 0:15:11.964 actually be much nicer than what's happening in the United 0:15:12.004 --> 0:15:14.324 States and we will not betray our allies or whatever 0:15:14.364 --> 0:15:16.644 it is. So I think that there's a lot of 0:15:16.724 --> 0:15:19.004 moves that can happen right now that will not end 0:15:19.044 --> 0:15:20.964 well for the US now. 0:15:21.084 --> 0:15:24.724 The contrast to the Middle East is interesting, is like 0:15:24.764 --> 0:15:28.604 the marketing strategy right in the sense that like, you know, 0:15:28.644 --> 0:15:33.804 the Middle East turned countries will like sponsor huge soccer 0:15:34.404 --> 0:15:37.604 teams and things like that, right, and they'll and they'll 0:15:37.644 --> 0:15:41.044 have this marketing campaign more, Hey, come to Saudi Arabia 0:15:41.124 --> 0:15:44.364 and in the pictures we show you in the ads, right, 0:15:44.764 --> 0:15:49.324 it looks very progressive, and you know, and they'll bribe allegedly, 0:15:50.284 --> 0:15:55.004 bribe FIFA to host World Cups allegedly and things like that. Right. 0:15:56.204 --> 0:16:00.084 But it's a marketing strategy to paint a friendlier phase, right, 0:16:00.684 --> 0:16:04.244 and it probably is probably has worked on some level. 0:16:04.244 --> 0:16:06.364 I'm not looking at like what American perceptions are of 0:16:06.764 --> 0:16:11.364 the wealthier you know, Gulf state, Saudi Arabia, cutar, et cetera. 0:16:11.964 --> 0:16:14.204 I said kutar in one of the ways that you're 0:16:14.244 --> 0:16:15.604 not supposed to say it. There's like five ways you 0:16:15.604 --> 0:16:16.924 can say and I just kind of made up my 0:16:17.004 --> 0:16:22.164 own pronunciation there, cut the guitar anyway. 0:16:22.244 --> 0:16:24.724 Yeah, that's I Actually, I think that that's a really 0:16:24.844 --> 0:16:30.164 that's a good analogy in the sense that foreign image 0:16:30.364 --> 0:16:35.044 laundering is something that countries have done many times over 0:16:35.084 --> 0:16:38.764 the years and sometimes successfully. And I think that and 0:16:38.804 --> 0:16:42.924 it's always a huge, huge part of any diplomatic policy. 0:16:43.244 --> 0:16:45.444 It's a huge part of you know, what the CIA does, 0:16:45.524 --> 0:16:49.244 right to try to massage perceptions of the United States 0:16:49.244 --> 0:16:52.364 and different countries. I think it happens all the time, 0:16:52.524 --> 0:16:55.084 and yet when you see an opportunity like that, you 0:16:55.124 --> 0:16:57.684 should take it. So I think the US should be worried. 0:16:58.004 --> 0:17:01.084 It should try to be figuring out how to make 0:17:01.164 --> 0:17:04.844 it so that you know so that these moves are 0:17:05.404 --> 0:17:08.484 not going to happen. Right, how do you like, how 0:17:08.524 --> 0:17:10.404 do you look ahead at the game theoretic board so 0:17:10.444 --> 0:17:13.324 that you can actually counter these moves before they happen. 0:17:14.084 --> 0:17:17.284 And that's not something that's happening right now, Nate. Let's 0:17:17.284 --> 0:17:21.124 do a quick recap. So what are our key takeaways 0:17:21.164 --> 0:17:24.444 from the current situation between the US and China and 0:17:24.524 --> 0:17:26.364 kind of where the strategic choices lie. 0:17:26.724 --> 0:17:29.004 Yeah, I guess a little bit. What we talked about 0:17:29.004 --> 0:17:33.644 before is like the US is abdicating its position in 0:17:33.684 --> 0:17:39.084 some ways as a global hedgemon. I'm using all these 0:17:39.124 --> 0:17:42.204 terms I learned in debate team years ago. The term 0:17:42.244 --> 0:17:45.284 that we'd use is soft power, right, where like the 0:17:45.364 --> 0:17:48.164 United States is seeing as being the most stable economy 0:17:48.164 --> 0:17:52.804 in the world, a force for stability and international order generally. 0:17:52.844 --> 0:17:54.924 Of course it fucks up and makes some mistakes, right, 0:17:55.124 --> 0:17:58.444 but an anchor of safety. And if the US no 0:17:58.524 --> 0:18:01.484 longer that then, you know, can China play that role? 0:18:01.604 --> 0:18:05.764 And I think that might actually entail having a friendlier face, 0:18:05.804 --> 0:18:09.044 and China has sometimes a friendlier face to the West 0:18:09.444 --> 0:18:11.884 in particular. I mean, Europe is looking around for hey, 0:18:11.924 --> 0:18:15.444 who can we trust here anymore? Looking for trade partners potentially, 0:18:15.484 --> 0:18:18.604 and so it's an interesting moment, right, I think their 0:18:18.604 --> 0:18:22.004 response is not necessarily to like go not to get 0:18:22.084 --> 0:18:25.284 drawn into Trump's zero some game, which isn't really a 0:18:25.364 --> 0:18:27.444 zero some game. I mean, we want global cooperation on 0:18:27.524 --> 0:18:31.084 all these things ultimately, right, you know, both China and 0:18:31.124 --> 0:18:34.164 the US weirdly have like an interest in like making 0:18:34.164 --> 0:18:36.364 sure that we're the only two AI superpowers, right, and 0:18:36.444 --> 0:18:38.644 that somebody else, I mean, at least whatever else doesn't 0:18:38.684 --> 0:18:41.044 kind of catch up. But yeah, it's it's a moment 0:18:41.084 --> 0:18:45.404 for she to think big, you know, the US maybe 0:18:45.444 --> 0:18:48.484 abdicating its role as kind of the leader of the 0:18:48.484 --> 0:18:50.284 free world. Whether trying to count as a free world 0:18:50.404 --> 0:18:53.724 or not is kind of an open question obviously, But like, 0:18:53.964 --> 0:18:57.684 you know, you counter sometimes the player who is being 0:18:58.244 --> 0:19:02.844 playing zero s in the non zero S game by 0:19:02.884 --> 0:19:07.644 being the bigger, better, more mature player yourself, right, And 0:19:07.724 --> 0:19:10.684 so maybe, you know, maybe we open up Hong Kong 0:19:10.724 --> 0:19:14.004 more and don't invade Taiwan until you consolidate kind of 0:19:14.044 --> 0:19:17.724 more power and more authority. I think. I think playing 0:19:17.724 --> 0:19:20.164 a long game is always, always, almost always beneficial when 0:19:20.164 --> 0:19:21.284 others are short sighted. 0:19:27.244 --> 0:19:29.244 All right, let's uh, let's take a break night and 0:19:29.284 --> 0:19:30.524 then talk some poker. 0:19:40.324 --> 0:19:40.524 Nate. 0:19:40.604 --> 0:19:44.724 Have you been on poker Twitter this past week where 0:19:44.764 --> 0:19:48.604 there has been a lot of controversy, shall we say, 0:19:48.844 --> 0:19:52.324 around one particular hand that happened at a circuit event. 0:19:52.764 --> 0:19:54.684 Have you been privy to this or have you been 0:19:54.724 --> 0:19:56.844 too busy at Sloan conference? 0:19:57.124 --> 0:19:59.244 You know Twitter follows me. Oh, the Twitter was down 0:19:59.284 --> 0:20:02.844 actually for parts of the day. Yeah, why don't you 0:20:02.884 --> 0:20:04.484 introduce I have seen the hand in question. Do you 0:20:04.484 --> 0:20:05.684 want to introduce this one though, Maria? 0:20:05.804 --> 0:20:09.124 Yeah? Sure, Okay. So we are at a World Series 0:20:09.124 --> 0:20:13.484 of PO circuit event, which is not the main World series, 0:20:13.484 --> 0:20:15.844 but this is kind of the circuit gives out rings. 0:20:15.884 --> 0:20:19.204 It's a big deal and it's down to the final table. 0:20:19.364 --> 0:20:22.364 It's down to the final three players. One of those 0:20:22.404 --> 0:20:28.164 players is Maurice Hawkins, who has at that point seventeen rings. 0:20:28.204 --> 0:20:30.524 I want to say, if he wins this ring, he 0:20:30.684 --> 0:20:35.764 will tie Ari Engele for the most rings in history 0:20:36.164 --> 0:20:38.964 in the circuit at eighteen rings. By the way, Ari 0:20:39.164 --> 0:20:42.724 just won another ring. Congratulations Ari, so Ari's now at nineteen, 0:20:43.004 --> 0:20:47.724 but last week he didn't have that ring. And there's 0:20:47.764 --> 0:20:51.244 a big hand where Maurice and another player are all 0:20:51.284 --> 0:20:57.404 in and the dealer fans out the board and MUCKs 0:20:57.524 --> 0:21:00.164 the other player's hand and says that Maurice has won 0:21:00.684 --> 0:21:03.684 with a straight. Maurice has awarded the pot. The other 0:21:03.764 --> 0:21:09.004 player is eliminated, and Maurice goes on to win his ring, 0:21:10.324 --> 0:21:14.124 ring number eighteen. It turns out that the pot was 0:21:14.164 --> 0:21:18.364 awarded incorrectly. The player who was eliminated had actually had 0:21:18.404 --> 0:21:22.084 a flush and was supposed to win the hand. This 0:21:22.284 --> 0:21:26.364 was all captured on camera in the moment, and so 0:21:26.484 --> 0:21:30.884 there's a lot of controversy around what went wrong and 0:21:31.164 --> 0:21:33.724 also kind of what is the role of the media, 0:21:33.924 --> 0:21:36.004 right because someone was filming this hand, what is the 0:21:36.084 --> 0:21:40.044 role of onlookers? What role do people have to actually 0:21:40.364 --> 0:21:43.444 make sure that the pot is awarded to the correct hand. 0:21:43.764 --> 0:21:46.964 Both hands were on their backs, we can see all cards, 0:21:47.004 --> 0:21:49.964 you can see what the winning hand is. Somehow the dealer, 0:21:50.084 --> 0:21:53.604 the other two players, the media, everyone on the rail, 0:21:53.924 --> 0:21:58.084 nobody speaks up and this poor kid is eliminated instead 0:21:58.084 --> 0:22:01.644 of doubling up, potentially changing the outcome. And this is 0:22:01.804 --> 0:22:04.524 this is a lot of money, right, we're talking. Oh, 0:22:04.564 --> 0:22:07.244 this is a difference in payout of over one hundred 0:22:07.284 --> 0:22:10.484 thousand dollars. This is life changing money. This does not 0:22:10.644 --> 0:22:13.204 happen often. But you know, how do we think about 0:22:13.244 --> 0:22:16.764 this and what you know, what should be done? And 0:22:16.884 --> 0:22:21.164 people are incredibly incredibly split on this, which actually shocked me. 0:22:22.004 --> 0:22:25.364 Yeah, I mean, has the World series done anything for him? 0:22:25.364 --> 0:22:26.164 Like I would give him? 0:22:26.284 --> 0:22:30.004 No? Okay, yeah, nothing has been done. It was it 0:22:30.084 --> 0:22:34.964 was basically a tough shit, dude. It's your responsibility to 0:22:35.004 --> 0:22:38.444 protect your hand and you're done well. 0:22:38.444 --> 0:22:41.364 First of all, the dealer it's an all in pot, right, 0:22:41.404 --> 0:22:43.964 so both hands are face up for the entire table, 0:22:45.604 --> 0:22:52.564 and he MUCKs the sensible loser's hand really fast, right, 0:22:52.924 --> 0:22:55.684 which was just strange. Right, there's no reason to rush it. 0:22:55.844 --> 0:22:58.284 He dealt the whole so it's one thing. Also, the 0:22:58.364 --> 0:23:00.764 guy said, oh I thought I won, right. 0:23:00.964 --> 0:23:03.564 Yeah, so this is this is crucial. Yet on the video, 0:23:04.124 --> 0:23:07.684 the person who loses actually says, oh I thought I won, 0:23:08.284 --> 0:23:11.044