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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, how are you welcome into a Wednesday morning

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Speaker 1: episode of the Daily Juice podcast from the Matt Pereltz.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all of my socials

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt, and well, let me just explain

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Speaker 1: how last night went. So I was not going to

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Speaker 1: go out last night. I don't go out all that often.

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Speaker 1: But a friend of mine is in town and he

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Speaker 1: is he was hosting an event at a whiskey and

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Speaker 1: cigar place and he runs a whiskey and a cigar

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Speaker 1: company called Mala Labe. If you guys know BBB, you

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Speaker 1: know the company. So he's in town and he sends

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Speaker 1: me note and says, hey, I'm doing this event if

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Speaker 1: you want to come on out. I'm like, eh to

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Speaker 1: Tuesday night, probably going to stay in. And then I

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Speaker 1: watched the Spurs and the Rocket ending and how that

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Speaker 1: game went, and I immediately got in the shower, got

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Speaker 1: dressed and went to the event because I needed a drink.

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Speaker 1: And I had to get the heck away from myself

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Speaker 1: and a heck away from my house because I could

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Speaker 1: not sit there after what happened. I was so angry

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Speaker 1: at that game. It's a one in three night somehow

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Speaker 1: we get the prop bet that gets under forty one

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Speaker 1: and a half. It lands forty one. So we got

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Speaker 1: that right. It was the only bet we got right.

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Speaker 1: Central Florida got smoked by Iowa State. That's on me.

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Speaker 1: That game and the Arkansas game both factored into a

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Speaker 1: system play that I'm gonna bring back for today. I've

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Speaker 1: been I bet it a lot. I watched it for tonight.

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Speaker 1: The Iowa State game factored into it. I went against it.

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Speaker 1: It lost. The Arkansas game, I went with it. It won.

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna jump in and we're gonna go with

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Speaker 1: it here for today. What is that system? The hockey

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Speaker 1: bet four to three was the final spur, like I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: was so frustrating, so one in three day down two

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Speaker 1: point three to five units on the day. The system

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Speaker 1: play is, find a team that lost on the road

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Speaker 1: is then coming back home to play a conference opponent

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Speaker 1: with a line that is somewhere between two and a

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Speaker 1: half and four and a half. Like you want like

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Speaker 1: you don't want a full five points. You want to

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Speaker 1: be under five this game. It's under three. It's even better.

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Speaker 1: So it's a conference game with a small line coming

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Speaker 1: off of a loss. You come back home to play.

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Speaker 1: The coach is mad, the team's mad. You get some

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Speaker 1: home cooking and things should go well for you. So

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Speaker 1: there is one game that I'm looking at here for

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Speaker 1: tonight that does factor into that. Arkansas game factor into that.

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Speaker 1: I always say game factor into that. So it's a

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Speaker 1: road game, road loss, conference loss, coming home to play

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Speaker 1: at home in a conference game with a short line.

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Speaker 1: That's the system play that I made a lot of

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Speaker 1: bets with last year. I'm going to come back with

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Speaker 1: that here today for the hard rock bet of the day,

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Speaker 1: so stay tuned for that. There will be two NBA

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Speaker 1: player props on the Betting pros app today from me,

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Speaker 1: so stay tuned for that. I'll tell you which two

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Speaker 1: bets I'm making at some point later on today Betting

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Speaker 1: pros app search at Sports Talk Matt. It's the only

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Speaker 1: bet I got right yesterday, so hopefully we'll keep the

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Speaker 1: positive streak going there with NBA player props. But that's

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Speaker 1: going to happen. Two of them will be on the

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Speaker 1: app later on today, So the hard rock bet still

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Speaker 1: to come. College basketball. Two NBA player props happening tonight

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Speaker 1: on there for fortunight happening on the app. So what

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Speaker 1: are we doing. I'm going to give you what is

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Speaker 1: the beginning of what the card will look like on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Why well, why not? I think it's good to jump

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Speaker 1: in with us. Now, let's get this out of the way.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and jump on this before we see

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Speaker 1: any big line movement. I do think that the Patriots

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Speaker 1: game against the Broncos is going to close around three

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Speaker 1: and a half. I think we're going to see a

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Speaker 1: point or a point and a half of movement here

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Speaker 1: once on Thursday the limits open up. I do think

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Speaker 1: the books. I think the five and five and a

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Speaker 1: half is a complete and total headfake. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that that's a real number. I don't think the pros

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Speaker 1: are betting the Patriots. I think they're going to come

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Speaker 1: and unload on the Broncos when the limits get lifted,

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Speaker 1: and I think we're going to see a closing number

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Speaker 1: of around three and a half, maybe even three, depending

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Speaker 1: on how much money comes in. So we have the

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Speaker 1: eleven to one ticket on the Patriots to win the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. We've already bet one unit or one and

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Speaker 1: a half one point one units with Houston last week

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Speaker 1: against it, so just for the accounting people that want

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Speaker 1: to keep track of what we're doing here. The bets

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Speaker 1: made in twenty six, hedge or no hedge counts for

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Speaker 1: twenty six. The future will count for last year. So

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Speaker 1: depending on what we do the Patriots against the Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: we do nothing, that is what we want. So just

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Speaker 1: because we want that, I got to make sure that

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Speaker 1: we protect ourselves from both of those tickets. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna bet money line on the Broncos. It's two to one,

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Speaker 1: So if the Broncos win outright, we get our money back. Basically,

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Speaker 1: we get the one unit back from the Patriots bet

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Speaker 1: and we get the one unit bat from the Texans loss.

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Speaker 1: The Texan bet that we made yet it made last week, Okay,

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Speaker 1: so it'll be a two unit win, one unit to win.

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Speaker 1: Two numbers five and a half or five plus two,

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Speaker 1: ten plus two fifteen somewhere in that range. Find the

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Speaker 1: best price, bet it money line if you have the

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Speaker 1: Patriots future. Okay, the numbers aren't great. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: sit here and tell you that the trends are where

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Speaker 1: you want them to be. If you are a Denver

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Speaker 1: Bronco fan, Okay, we're talking about numbers. That we haven't

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Speaker 1: really seen before. We talked about it last week with

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Speaker 1: the Bears. So we bet the Bears at plus four

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Speaker 1: because teams at home in the playoffs catching four or

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Speaker 1: more points are nine to oh ats over the last

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Speaker 1: fifty years in the postseason. So Bears did it last week.

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Speaker 1: We were on the Bears. They covered so ten and oh. Really,

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Speaker 1: so that's a big trend. A lot of things to

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Speaker 1: look at for this. But the Patriots are undefeated on

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Speaker 1: the road. They're eight and oh straight up. They're seven

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Speaker 1: and one against the spread. The Patriots are the second

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Speaker 1: best team against the spread in the NFL, only one

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Speaker 1: behind the Seahawks, who went eight and one on the

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Speaker 1: road against the spread this season. But the Patriots are

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Speaker 1: the only undefeated team straight up on the road this year.

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Speaker 1: They are eight and oh. I've been talking about it

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Speaker 1: all week. When the Patriots have their defensive starters healthy

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Speaker 1: in Milton Williams, Roberts, Perlane, and Christian Gonzales, they are

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Speaker 1: sixteen and oh. They're going to have all three of

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Speaker 1: those guys here up against Jared Stidham, who's trying to

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Speaker 1: make history. Let's just say the Patriots lose, though, Let's

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Speaker 1: protect ourselves because I have been betting against I've been

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Speaker 1: telling you guys at the Broncos we're going to beat

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Speaker 1: the Patriots, so let's protect ourselves. We're going to go

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Speaker 1: money line Patriots, Sorry, Broncos money line at plus two

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Speaker 1: ten for one unit. Now the other game, we have

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Speaker 1: the fourteen to one on Seattle, and I think we

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Speaker 1: have no choice but to hedge off that. We have

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Speaker 1: a bit more wiggle room than we do for the

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Speaker 1: AFC number. But it would be stupid for us not

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Speaker 1: to at least break even here with this. And we

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Speaker 1: break a little more, we can make a little money

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Speaker 1: if the Seahawks win. We get zero point three to

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Speaker 1: five units on this because we have the Seahawks one

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Speaker 1: unit to win fourteen. The Rams are going to be

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Speaker 1: up against it. But the Rams, this is It's tough, okay.

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Speaker 1: The Rams are the only zero to two team in

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Speaker 1: post season history to go oh and two against the

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Speaker 1: spread and yet not lose in the playoffs, didn't cover

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Speaker 1: against the Panthers, didn't cover against the Bears, and now

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Speaker 1: they are two and a half point dogs on the

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Speaker 1: road in the conference championship game. The Broncos and the

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Speaker 1: Rams are both coming off of overtime wins in the

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Speaker 1: divisional round. Since twenty fifteen, teams coming off of an

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Speaker 1: overtime appearance against a team that was not in overtime

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Speaker 1: the week before are winning games just a forty four

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Speaker 1: percent clip. They're just covering at a forty six percent clip.

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Speaker 1: This year, those teams are eleven and seventeen against the spread.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at the playoffs, it gets even worse.

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Speaker 1: For a team that played in an overtime game the

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Speaker 1: following game, if they win that overtime, they're oho to

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Speaker 1: five straight up. That's Broncos in rams oh and five

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Speaker 1: straight up, one in four against the spread. That's not good. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's that's just not good. So if you look at

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Speaker 1: the trend as to where they are not great, Mike

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Speaker 1: Vrabel has been tremendous, but so is Mike McDonald. Sean

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Speaker 1: Payton has been I mean, there's all these trends. Rabel

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Speaker 1: road favorite as a head coach is sixteen and six

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Speaker 1: straight up with the Patriots and the Titans. The Patriots

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Speaker 1: in the first half in the sixteen games under Mike

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Speaker 1: Vrabel are fifteen to zho to one on the first

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Speaker 1: half money line winning the game by an average in

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Speaker 1: nine point win the first half by an average of

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Speaker 1: nine point five points. Mike Vrabel in December or later

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Speaker 1: is eight and oh straight up as a road favorite

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Speaker 1: as a head coach. He's a road favorite as a

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Speaker 1: head coach. Sean Payton is twelve and ten straight up

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Speaker 1: what he's listed as a home underdog in any game.

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Speaker 1: That's pretty good. But the Rams are playing their third

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Speaker 1: consecutive road game this week since division realignment in two

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Speaker 1: thousand and two. Teams playing on a third consecutive road

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Speaker 1: game in the playoffs not good. Twelve and thirty straight

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Speaker 1: up nine and twenty eight against the that's twenty eight

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Speaker 1: point six percent and twenty four point three percent no good.

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Speaker 1: Not good. Historically, teams with an indoor outdoor dome stadium

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Speaker 1: also struggling on the road in a conference championship game.

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Speaker 1: In the last fifty years, a dome type team like

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Speaker 1: the Rams zero to fourteen straight up two to twelve

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Speaker 1: ats in outdoor conference championship games Rams or outdoors against

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks. So you can twist this around into a

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Speaker 1: million different ways, but for me, I'm going with the

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Speaker 1: money line for the Broncos with a hedge and the

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Speaker 1: Rams on a money line with a hedge at plus

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Speaker 1: one thirty five. We want to be wrong on both

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Speaker 1: of those accounts. If we are wrong on both those accounts,

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Speaker 1: the Patriots are playing the Seahawks in the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: and we don't have to do anything. We are guaranteed

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Speaker 1: to cash a double digit a double digitkick ticket Patriots

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Speaker 1: or the Seahawks eleven to one or fourteen to one,

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Speaker 1: and that will make up for the losses that we

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Speaker 1: have had here with the Jaguars and with uh who

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Speaker 1: was the other one, Jags and the NFC team where

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Speaker 1: I'm blanking on who we had a future, Oh, the Niners.

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Speaker 1: So Jags Niners. We've lost there. We hedged with the Texans.

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Speaker 1: That's three units right there. So either or we're gonna

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Speaker 1: drop one unit. Obviously if it's Patriots and the Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: so there would be four units there. But you're talking,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna win three or four units coming

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Speaker 1: off of this. Okay, we're not going to lose any

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Speaker 1: money on this. Heck, can we win one unit? It's

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Speaker 1: worth it just to have profitability off of it. So

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Speaker 1: this is this is a good thing. And remember that number.

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Speaker 1: Whatever we win for the future, we'll go into twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five, will wrap up the year with that. If

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Speaker 1: whatever we're hedging, we're going to take it and encounter

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Speaker 1: for the record for this year in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Just again, so for some accounting now, teaser wise, I

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Speaker 1: don't believe the Patriots are gonna give up any points

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Speaker 1: against Jared Stidham. I also don't think the Patriot's gonna

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Speaker 1: score many points against Jared Stidham. The totals forty one

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Speaker 1: and a half, we're gonna pull that up to forty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. On the flip side, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: wind up taking the total for the Rams and the Seahawks.

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Speaker 1: I was going to bet the under. Talked to to

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Speaker 1: Pat Fitzmorris on Tuesday Show, and Pat liked the over,

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Speaker 1: and I was sort of a little bit wishy washy.

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Speaker 1: I liked the under, But the more I thought about it,

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Speaker 1: the more I looked at the numbers, I think Pat's right.

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Speaker 1: I think I'm wrong. So the numbers are quite stark.

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Speaker 1: The Rams are eight and three on the road this

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Speaker 1: year to the over. The Seahawks are six and three

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Speaker 1: at home this year to the over. In the game

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Speaker 1: that was played in Seattle against the Ram by the

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Speaker 1: Rams against the Seahawks went over by thirty three points

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Speaker 1: thirty eight to thirty seven win for Seattle. The total

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Speaker 1: was forty two in that game. So this total being

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Speaker 1: forty seven and a half, we're gonna pull it down

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Speaker 1: to forty one and a half and we're gonna bet

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Speaker 1: the over that gets us through forty four through forty three.

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Speaker 1: Those are both key numbers and it gets us a chance.

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Speaker 1: If it does turn into a bit of a higher

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Speaker 1: scoring game, we're good there. So I'm gonna tease the

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Speaker 1: totals Patriots under forty seven and a half and the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks over forty one and a half for one point

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Speaker 1: twenty five units for a teaser. So Broncos money line,

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Speaker 1: Rams money line Patriots under forty seven and a half

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Speaker 1: and the Seahawks over forty one and a half for

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Speaker 1: the conference championship games on Sunday. Now two player props

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Speaker 1: on the betting pros app The hard Bet of the

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Speaker 1: Day being brought to you by our friends at hard

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Speaker 1: Rock Bet. This is a big week. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of things going on here. Obviously, with two teams try

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Speaker 1: to punch their ticket to the big game coming up

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Speaker 1: in Santa Clara. There are so many things going on

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Speaker 1: here for this standalone matchup. You have same game parlays,

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Speaker 1: you have in game opportunities, you have prop betting, all

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Speaker 1: happening at hard Rock Bet. Don't forget about in game wagering.

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Speaker 1: If you forget to make a bet before kickoff, you

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Speaker 1: most likely will be able to get it in game

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Speaker 1: at hard Rock Bet. If you've not tried hard Rock

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets. So much going on

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Speaker 1: with new promos dropping every single day, So go and

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Speaker 1: Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. So,

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Speaker 1: like I mentioned, we are doing a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a system play. Okay, team who loses a conference game

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Speaker 1: on the road, who then goes and plays at home

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Speaker 1: in a conference game with a number that's low like

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Speaker 1: two and a half three Richmond. You might go, wait

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Speaker 1: what Richmond. No, not the mythical Richmond, the actual Richmond,

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Speaker 1: the college laying two and a half tonight in a

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Speaker 1: game where Rhode Island is four and five on the

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Speaker 1: road this season. However, Rhode Island is one eight and

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Speaker 1: one against the number over their last ten games. They're

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Speaker 1: one in four ats in conference, while Richmond is three

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Speaker 1: and three. We've gone twelve and eight so far on

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Speaker 1: the hard rock bet of the day, and We're gonna

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Speaker 1: go ahead and take a team that I've never seen

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Speaker 1: play basketball. I miss going on numbers. Okay, this is

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Speaker 1: just a straight numbers play. Haven't watched Richmond, haven't watched

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Speaker 1: Rhode Island, just looking at the numbers. Though, Richmond six

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Speaker 1: and five ats at home, Richmond's three and three in

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Speaker 1: the A ten for them ats wise, Rhode Island was

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Speaker 1: decent early, but they have been atrocious, with one cover

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Speaker 1: since the Since the twenty sixth of No November, they've

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Speaker 1: covered one time over that stretch. Richmond is coming off

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Speaker 1: of a twenty five point loss to Saint Louis. They

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Speaker 1: were catching fifteen, they lost by twenty five, but in

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Speaker 1: the last home game against the sal they were laying

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Speaker 1: eight and they won by twenty one points. On the

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Speaker 1: road loss, come home with a short number, let's play

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Speaker 1: it out again. Last night it was Iowa State in

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Speaker 1: Arkansas that cash on this. Let's play this here for

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Speaker 1: Rhode Island on the road against Richmond, and let's lay

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Speaker 1: the two and a half points here for Richmond for

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Speaker 1: the hard rock bet of the day. So Richmond laying

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Speaker 1: two and a half, We're gonna go with two NBA

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Speaker 1: player props on the BP app. Later on today, Bronco's

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Speaker 1: money line hedge on the Patriots future rams money line

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Speaker 1: hedge on the future for the Seahawks Patriots under forty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half teas with the Seahawks of over

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Speaker 1: forty one and a half for Sunday Minus Matt Paroltz.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across my socials at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice