1 00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:03,800 Speaker 1: And we're back. Hello friends, it's Chris Welsher Fantasy Pros 2 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: with our first May edition of our trade video series. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 1: Little over a month in the books, and now thanks 4 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: are getting interesting. I've got five names for you, some 5 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: to trade, four, some to trade away. First though, make 6 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:19,639 Speaker 1: sure you like and subscribe this channel. If you do 7 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 1: and make a comment below, you could have a chance 8 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 1: to win a premium subscription to Fantasy Pros. Get yourself 9 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: locked into the most powerful fantasy tools in the industry. 10 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: We're talking projections, roster management, and so much more. Fantasy 11 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,559 Speaker 1: Pros they have got your back. And if you don't 12 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: want to wait, go to fantasypros dot com, slash premium 13 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: and just get it done today. All right, trade fours tradeaways. 14 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 1: Let's kick it off now. First up is New York 15 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: Mets third baseman corner enfielder. However we look at it, 16 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: Brett Baty. Sixteen games to start this season. Baty's got 17 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: two homers with a two ninety four batting average, which 18 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: is pretty good considering this is his first stent of 19 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: this season since April twenty second, which that's going to 20 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:05,679 Speaker 1: be our two week marker. We're gonna use in the episode, 21 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 1: Batty has the second best hard hit percentage in baseball, 22 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: behind only Matt Chapman. That numbers at sixty four point 23 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: three percent. This is according to Fangraft's stat cast data, 24 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: be a little bit different on Baseball Savant. Now for perspective, 25 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: Baty also had a higher wOBA and slug than Matt Chapman. 26 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: Baty already has a twenty one percent hard hit swing percentage, 27 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 1: So twenty one percent of the swings are going to 28 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,680 Speaker 1: be hard hit, which is top fifteen percent in the league. 29 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: But you get that, like just you get the hint 30 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:42,320 Speaker 1: heier he hits the ball really hard. What might also 31 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 1: surprise you is he's got an expected batting average that 32 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: is higher than his current batting average, so this isn't 33 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: like just raw power. His strikeout rate is just over 34 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: twenty percent, a little over twenty percent, still great, and 35 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: he's making consistent contact. What I like about this is like, sure, 36 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: he's a prospect with some buzz, so that that's not 37 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: exactly going to be cheap. But guys like him sometimes 38 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: just won't have their value match up with what they 39 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: really are going to be Across the league, These newer, 40 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 1: younger guys it's exciting and everything, but they're not locked in. 41 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: Take for a prime example, like Tanner Biby, who is 42 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: a fun pickup, could probably be had in trades because 43 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 1: they don't think people can quite understand the value. But 44 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: like Tanner Biby could be a top or may already 45 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: be a top forty sp with higher upside. That's something 46 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: in the similar vein as I view Brett Bady and 47 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: what he can be. This is a guy that can 48 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: be a starting top twelve third basement in fantasy baseball 49 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: this year. I'd be willing to be aggressive in moving 50 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: from some other points of strength to go and get 51 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: the Mets corner infielder. Now we're trading away Seattle Mariners. 52 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 1: George Kirby. I'm not even sure what like to do 53 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,679 Speaker 1: with George Kirby this season. It's been good three to 54 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: one one ERA, decreased barrel percentage against, decreased hard hit 55 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 1: percentage against, and he's cut his walk rate like in half. 56 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: All of that is really awesome, but there is something 57 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: that is just a miss here. He's averaging a little 58 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: over only six K per nine, which is down from 59 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 1: last year from around nine. This is going with a 60 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: seventeen percent k percentage, which is blach, and an awful 61 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 1: eight percent swinging strike rate, which is alarming. He's down 62 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:28,679 Speaker 1: a tick on his fastball, and his slider's like a 63 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: little bit of a mess as it shows it's down 64 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 1: three miles per hour on Fangrass, but Baseball Savant says 65 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: that he's essentially scrapped his cutter cutter sliders can be 66 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: seen the same. So what he's throwing is now being 67 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 1: designated as a slider. But either way, regardless of like 68 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: however we're looking at that it is down two hundred 69 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: on the spin. It's got over two hundred less spin 70 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: on it. However, we're going to designate this pitch now. 71 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: The k rate seems odd, but obviously it could improve 72 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: because it's so low. And I love command pitchers, but 73 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: like I said, there's just something off here with him. 74 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 1: You know who reminds me of It's kind of like 75 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: Shane Bieber. Maybe he gets away with all of it 76 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: this year due to that really great command, but I 77 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: think the wiggle room is less. I'm kind of out 78 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: on Shane Bieber this year, not out on George Kirby, 79 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: but the things that are surrounded around. His strikeout rate 80 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: in general really concerned me, and I think he might 81 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 1: be getting away more than he should, so I might 82 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,799 Speaker 1: try to go and cash out now while his name 83 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 1: is in a positive light. Number three on the trade, 84 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: we are trading for Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zach Wheeler. 85 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: Zach Wheeler on the season has been show so three 86 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: to two record for two six CRA over seven stars. 87 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: His walk rate is jumped and his groundball rate has decreased. 88 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 1: All that's like not great. But since April twenty second 89 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: or two week, Marker Wheeler has the sixth best sierra 90 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 1: in baseball at three point zero three. This is going 91 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: along with a round of three and a half alright. 92 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 1: His K percentage has sat around twenty eight percent on 93 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: the season, but over that April twenty second Marker Wheeler's 94 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: K percentage jumped to thirty one percent. The lower amount 95 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 1: of ground balls is obviously contributing to a career high 96 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 1: three point forty babbb. His left on base percentage is 97 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: also around sixty two percent, which it's like low enough 98 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:19,280 Speaker 1: that we know that's going to improve. That's way too 99 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: low of a number. Which all of these things, I 100 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: think the high babbit and the really low left on 101 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: base percentage. Those are things that are going to help 102 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: Wheeler in potentially projecting positive regression. So much of what 103 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 1: makes Wheeler good is still holding. The results just haven't 104 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 1: been there. I think the ship is going to write 105 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: in favor of Wheeler. Plus, it doesn't hurt when you 106 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: add like a little bit more offense in the mix. 107 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,919 Speaker 1: In the name of Bryce Harper. Wheeler is a solid 108 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: starting pitcher to go poke around an owner who might 109 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: really be indifferent about him, and I think that's kind 110 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 1: of the key. I think people could be just indifferent 111 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 1: and maybe he can be had for around ninety cents 112 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: on the dollar. Go see if you can go get 113 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: some Zach Wheeler. Number four, we are trading away Saint 114 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: Louis Cardinals, Tommy Edmund shortstop middle infielder. However you want 115 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 1: to look at it, five homers, three stolen bases. This 116 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: is going into Sunday. Edmund kind of doing his job presently, 117 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: though the stolen bases they just like, look down. He's 118 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: gotten three stolen bases, caught once, but probably no insane 119 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: complaints from drafters, I would imagine. I think though things 120 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: could have been much worse, and they actually might get 121 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: that way. Edmund has a two thirty five expected batting 122 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: average as well. He has the twenty first worst wOBA 123 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: to expected wOBA differential in baseball, so that is going 124 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 1: in the wrong direction. They're on top of that an 125 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: expected slug which is over one hundred points lower than 126 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:50,919 Speaker 1: the actual number. To put this in like more relative terms, 127 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 1: we can look at this as a home run versus 128 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 1: expected home run, and that total, where he has five homers, 129 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,039 Speaker 1: is an expected home run total of only three. That's 130 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: kind of wild to already see guys at this stage 131 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:06,919 Speaker 1: of the season with two less expected homers. Overall, his 132 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: ev is down mile prower launch angle down two degrees, 133 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: barrels down about one and a half percent, and his 134 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 1: hard hit percentage down six percent. The quality is fading. 135 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: His safety net in stolen bases have led to only 136 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: those four attempts all year. The whole team has struggled, 137 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: and the way that they're managing things also not great. 138 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: This leads me to think that we could have some 139 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 1: roster blow up of some sort, And even if that's 140 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: just like throwing guys in different spots, it doesn't necessarily 141 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: mean Edmund's going to lose his job. But the possibilities 142 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: out there and Edmund isn't playing well enough to not 143 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: justify a guy like Mason Winn potentially taking over his 144 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: gig in the future, or you know, anyone else. They 145 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: got a whole roster of guys they just keep throwing 146 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: around in different spots. It may not happen. He could improve, 147 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 1: but with the stolen bases coming down, think I'd look 148 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: to sell to a stolen base hungry team right now 149 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: and final up number one on the trade four, we're 150 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: going big. How about Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez. Oh, hello, 151 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 1: massive name in the fantasy industry. You know how I 152 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: know it's time that we start talking about trading for Julio. 153 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: It's because of the amount of concern tweets I see 154 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: daily about how worried we should be and that we 155 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 1: should be trading Julio away. That's warning signed number one. 156 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: Some of the things that are down for Julio, besides 157 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: just as average, his hard hit percentages down six percent, 158 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: barrels per plate appearances down around two percent. Maybe the 159 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: most worrisome of this is he has a two thirteen 160 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: batting average against fastballs. Last year, Julio hit three sixteen 161 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: against fastballs, so sophomore slumps are real. And I don't 162 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: want to excuse things just for Julio, but I think 163 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: there are reasons to be optimistic that two thirteen against 164 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 1: fastballs actually carries an ex WHOBA of three point fifty 165 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: five if we compare that to last year, he had 166 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: a three seventy six x wOBA against his fastball. So 167 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 1: you can see the massive difference between batting average this 168 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 1: year last year, and obviously the fastball. But look at 169 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: the x wobook it's not as big of a gap 170 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: this one. I like Julio actually has a higher expected 171 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: batting average, which is two sixty two this season, than 172 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 1: in expected bat average he had last year, which was 173 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,680 Speaker 1: only two fifty three across the whole year. In fact, 174 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 1: Julio has the seventeenth highest XBA versus his actual batting 175 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: average in baseball, so that's a positive regression. Look, even 176 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 1: with the tick down across the board on the metrics, 177 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: things still stand in the red on baseball savant for Julio. Lastly, 178 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: Julio has a two sixty four BABBIT, which is about 179 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: eighty points lower than when he averaged last season. Positive 180 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: regression is in play here, folks. Julio struggled to start 181 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: the season last year. We kind of all know about it. 182 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: Julio had a two to zho five batting average between 183 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,080 Speaker 1: March and April. So as easy as it is to 184 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 1: buy in on struggling superstars in theory, it's just tough 185 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 1: for some people to actually pull the trigger and do 186 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: it because this is the perfect time. One month has 187 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 1: passed and the real worries have settled in. Maybe we're 188 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,959 Speaker 1: in for a big sophomore slump. But I'm taking my 189 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: shot and I'm gonna go buy some Julio Rodriguez where 190 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: I can. And there you have it. My five trades 191 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 1: for the coming week. But who are you trading away 192 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: or trading for? We have to hear about it below, 193 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,680 Speaker 1: Like it's a must do it? Did you make a 194 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: move on any of the guys that we just talked 195 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: about in this video? Even more of a must when 196 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 1: you make that comment, you're entering yourself in for a 197 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 1: chance to win a premium Fantasy pros account. That's awesome. 198 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: How cool is that? Like? Subscribe comment and win? Possibly 199 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 1: you that'll do it for this week? Find me on 200 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: Twitter at is it the Welsh for more fun trade talk, 201 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: and check out Joe and myself right here Monday through 202 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: Friday at twelve thirty Eastern for leading off. Until next time, 203 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 1: my friends, thanks for hanging out right here on the 204 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel. Thanks for listening to the 205 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast. Follow us on Twitter at Fantasy 206 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: Pros MLB, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube 207 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB