1 00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 1: Is there any point in Republicans working with Democrats? How 3 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:12,320 Speaker 1: on kom Russia continue to create pain for innocent Ukrainian 4 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: civilians and in that it seems like Pruden as a 5 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: lot of patients, things could get wild next go around 6 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: when we're trying to keep the government open. Bloomberg Sound 7 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: On Politics, Policy and Perspective from DC's top name, which 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,159 Speaker 1: probat The answer is this is going to be the 9 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: bane of this administration existence politics didn't want to win. 10 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:33,880 Speaker 1: They're all about re election. That's the first thing we 11 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: learned in political science. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew 12 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:43,200 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. It's been three and six days since 13 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:47,200 Speaker 1: Russia invaded Ukraine, bringing to reality a month long threat 14 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 1: of Russian invasion. That is perhaps the biggest story of 15 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: two and that's what we're focusing on as we start 16 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: our show today. Welcome to sound On the fastest hour 17 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: in politics. I'm Madison Mills in for Joe Matthew. Today 18 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 1: and throughout this week, we're bringing you the biggest stories 19 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: of starting with that war in Ukraine. February. It's been 20 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:13,040 Speaker 1: three hundred and six days since Russia invaded Ukraine. Can 21 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 1: you believe how much time has passed? Hundreds of thousands 22 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,119 Speaker 1: of refugees fled, while men and also many women stayed 23 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 1: behind to stay in the fight. That resistance led Russia 24 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 1: to abandon its attempt to seize Kiev in March, but 25 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: then in May Mariopo falling to Russia. Ukraine continuing to 26 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:34,839 Speaker 1: fight back, the resistance inspiring the world over. President Vladimir's 27 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 1: Linsky came to Washington last week imploring lawmakers to stay 28 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 1: in that fight. Take a lesson. This battle cannot be 29 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: frozen or postponed. It cannot be ignored hoping that the 30 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: ocean or something else will provide a protection. We stand, 31 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: we fight, and we will win because we are united Ukraine, 32 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: America and the entire free world. Thank you for boost 33 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: financial packages you have already provided us with, and there 34 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: once you may be willing to decide on Your money 35 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: is not charity, it's an investment in the global security 36 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 1: and democracy. Let's go to Bloomberg cogngressional reporter Stephen Dennis 37 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: to get a reaction on that. Stephen, thank you so 38 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 1: much for joining us. I know that you were in 39 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: the room last week with Zelenski during those remarks what's 40 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: stuck with you? From his speech? Yeah, I mean it 41 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: really kind of put to rest, particularly the reaction from 42 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: members of Congress, the idea that that there isn't strong 43 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: support on both sides of the aisle for Ukraine. A 44 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: lot of House Republicans were giving him standing ovation after 45 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: staying ovation, including Kevin McCarthy. But there's there's a catch, 46 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 1: and the catches that there were about a handful of 47 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: House Republicans who are mostly sitting on their hands in 48 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: the back row members of Congress like Lauren Bobert and 49 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: Matt Gates who Kevin McCarthy needs their votes or or 50 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: some other way to become a speaker next week. So 51 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 1: even though uh, you know, there may be you know, 52 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: three House members who support a to Ukraine, maybe three 53 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:29,679 Speaker 1: hundred fifty or even four hundred, he's still going to 54 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: have to face these internal riffs inside of the House 55 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 1: GOP next year and the big question is will it 56 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: be enough to move the needle. It's interesting to me 57 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: that you say that in person, the kind of partisanship 58 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: over funding for Ukraine didn't necessarily come through. Talk to 59 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: me about why you think that is Is it that 60 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: when someone of Zelenski's kind of charisma is in the room, 61 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: lawmakers are just implored to, you know, like you said, 62 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: stand up for him. Is that actually going to lead 63 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 1: to a change in votes come this next session in Congress? Yeah? 64 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I think some of the biggest critics basically 65 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: didn't show up, People like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has 66 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: been prone to sort of outbursts and some of these 67 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: kinds of events. She was not visible. And so, you know, 68 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: instead you had the people who really support Ukraine. Um. 69 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 1: And a key person there is Mitch McConnell, you know, 70 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: more than any other member of Congress really that this 71 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: year he's been pushing hard for the Biden administration to 72 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 1: to spend more money to send more arms, faster and 73 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: earlier than anybody else. And so he's still going to 74 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: be there next year. Um. And you know, so that 75 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 1: there's a pretty united group in the Senate, and it 76 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: really is going to be up to this new House 77 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 1: Republican majority to sort of manage this war. But there's 78 00:04:56,320 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 1: now this for billion dollar trunch approved in sent to 79 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:04,039 Speaker 1: the President that is basically going to give them a 80 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: lifeline for a number of months here before they really 81 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: need to come back for more money. Well, Stephen, you 82 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: mentioned McCarthy. So I want to zero in on some 83 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 1: news that you reported out for US earlier today. Newly 84 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: elected Congressman George Santo's admitting to fabricating much of his 85 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 1: life story, including falsehoods about former employers. Talk to me 86 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: about the challenge that sets up for Kevin McCarthy, who 87 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: really needs Santo's vote to become Speaker of the House. Yeah, 88 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:33,679 Speaker 1: I mean, Kevin McCarthy needs to eighteen votes next week 89 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 1: to become the Speaker of the House, and he doesn't 90 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: have them right now, so he needs every vote he 91 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: can get, and including Santos, isn't And and this is 92 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: the kind of scandal where you know, he didn't work 93 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: for Goldman's acts, said he worked for Goldman, didn't work 94 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: for a city group, said he worked for city group, 95 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: said he had a college degree, doesn't have a college degree, 96 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: studio in thirteen properties, doesn't own any properties. You know, 97 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: over and over and over again, he told things that 98 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: were not true to the voters. This is the kind 99 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 1: of thing that could lead to pressure to resign. Investigations, 100 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: criminal investigations, and the like, and you're hearing that from 101 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,279 Speaker 1: other members of Congress, but it's a really tough choice 102 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 1: here from McCarthy because he needs to get to to 103 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: eighteen any any which way he can, and so that 104 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 1: it's the kind of fallout from frankly, a disappointing mid 105 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 1: terms for the Republican Party. They really thought they would 106 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: have taken back the Senate and had a very large 107 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: House majority with a red wave and instead of wasn't, 108 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: and so you end up with this, you know, this uh, 109 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,600 Speaker 1: this balancing act, and we'll see what ends up happening 110 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: with Santos, but it's going to be hard for McCarthy 111 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: to to to impose some real discipline here. It's it's 112 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: such an interesting story that will definitely be tapping your 113 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: expertise for throughout the week, Stephen. Definitely not not a 114 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: great look to be lying about the old resume in 115 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: that sense. I really appreciate you, Joe ending us. Stephen, 116 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: thank you so much. We're going to continue to talk 117 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: about that Russian invasion of Ukraine and how it's developed 118 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: over the course of two with Melissa Harrying. We've got 119 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: her joining us from the Atlantic Council Melissa, thank you 120 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. I always love speaking with you. 121 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: Can you just start by speaking with me about the invasion? 122 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: I remember we had you on Melinda rather, I'm so 123 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: sorry I said your name in correctly, Milinda. We had 124 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: you on the week of the invasion. Do you do 125 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 1: you anticipate then that this war would be waging on 126 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: ten months later? Hey Madison, happy holidays. It's great to 127 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: be back. So unfortunately, yes, you know, being a think 128 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: tanker means playing the role of Old Testament profits. And 129 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: if you have followed Ukraine for a while like I have, 130 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: the war this is not the first time that Putin 131 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: has had to go in Ukraine, and he's been mired 132 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: there since. And these conflicts, Russia's frozen conflicts in the 133 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: former Soviet Union tend to be very long. So to 134 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: answer your question, no, I'm not surprised that this is 135 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 1: dragged on as long as it has. Well, there are 136 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: these these continued questions about whether Washington or wall Street 137 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 1: kind of missed the boat here with not anticipating the 138 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: staying power of the war, and honestly, even the war itself. 139 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: Help us understand, Milena, what we missed leading up to 140 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: the war. What were the key indicators that you were 141 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: just watching the news and thinking, how are you guys 142 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 1: missing this big story. Yeah, so I think that the 143 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: US government got it right. Remember Biden and his team 144 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: came out and declassified intelligence before February and they said, guys, 145 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: there are three hundred thousand Russian troops surrounding Ukraine on 146 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 1: three sides, and they're not you know, they're coming in 147 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: and they're they're putting all the elements of war in place. 148 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: And so the intelligence community knew what was going on. 149 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 1: The US government knew what was going on. Lynskey didn't 150 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: believe it. I was in Key of the first week 151 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 1: of February. We saw President Zlynsky and he said, please 152 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: tell your government to stop making so much noise. It's 153 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 1: routing my economy. And I don't think Western Europe really 154 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 1: believed that he would go in either Eastern Europe did 155 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,839 Speaker 1: because they know Putin's behavior and they know what he's 156 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: capable of. So that's one thing that that you know, 157 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: we got wrong. I think the other big takeaway Madison, 158 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: looking back ten months is we completely overestimated the strength 159 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: of the Russian army and underestimated the strength of the 160 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 1: Ukrainian side. And my explanation for that is pretty simple. 161 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 1: Hardly anyone studies the Ukrainian army and they didn't realize 162 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 1: how deep the reforms had gone in the Ukrainian army since, 163 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 1: and most gilts are focused on on the Russian side. 164 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 1: That's that's fascinating to me, that just that there wasn't 165 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: that attention paid to gathering that information. Picking up on that, 166 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: it seems that Ukrainians themselves really have no doubts about 167 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: their ability to prevail here. Just digging into your sourcing 168 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: on the ground, Are you still hearing that continued tenacity 169 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 1: as we head into from Ukrainian citizens? Absolutely so. The 170 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,319 Speaker 1: more that putin hits Ukraine with rocket strikes, the more 171 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 1: determined people get. So I keep calling them and saying, 172 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: you know, when are you guys gonna leave? I have 173 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: friends all over Ukraine. I've lived there for many years. Uh, 174 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 1: and my friends keep telling me, my contacts keep telling me, 175 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: we're not leaving. We found ways to make it work, 176 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 1: we found ways to stay warm, we have sleeping bags 177 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,559 Speaker 1: with candles. We're not moving. It's just it's such an 178 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: incredible display of of tenacity. It's it's it's really just 179 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 1: it's it's incredible, is the only word I have to 180 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:37,440 Speaker 1: describe it. You mentioned Russian drone attacks. What could send 181 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: those off at this point? What? What? What could set 182 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 1: them off at this point? What? What could send them 183 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:48,439 Speaker 1: off at this point? Well, so the really tricky part 184 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 1: right now is we don't know how many rockets Russia 185 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: has left, and we don't know how many drones they 186 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 1: have left. They can buy more drones, and these things 187 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: are pretty cheap, they're they're very cheap um, but we 188 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: don't know how many more these major strikes Ukraine's electrical 189 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: grid can take. And I've asked the efforts they're Madison, 190 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: and they simply don't know. They told me three to 191 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: five more big barrages. Uh So, you know, putting discounting 192 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: on destroying that electrical grid. Uh In these Shaheed drones 193 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,559 Speaker 1: are are an effective way to really uh cause a 194 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 1: lot of damage at a very cheap price, and they 195 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 1: also cause a lot of psychological terror as well, right, 196 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 1: I mean, I wonder if you can pick up on 197 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,079 Speaker 1: that a little bit more as well. What you mentioned 198 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:32,679 Speaker 1: kind of the solutions that your friends on the ground 199 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 1: have implemented to just be able to survive daily life there. 200 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 1: But I have to just wonder about the long term 201 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 1: impact of living through something like this for ten months. 202 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 1: What what are your your sources and your friends they're 203 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: saying about just how kind of their their lives and 204 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: perspectives have fundamentally changed. That's a great question, and I 205 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:56,719 Speaker 1: don't think we know the answer to it yet. So 206 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,599 Speaker 1: PTSD is a reality. Many many people are going to 207 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: have PFD and need some kind of psychological counseling and support. UM. 208 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 1: There's some other things I'm worried about. I'm really worried 209 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 1: about land mines. The Ukraine has become one of the 210 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: most heavily mined countries in the world, and there's wonderful 211 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 1: efforts that a lot of European governments are supporting now 212 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 1: to sort of help children understand what land mines look 213 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: like and how to avoid them. And then there's gonna 214 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: be huge needs for um, for new hands and for 215 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 1: new feet, for prosthetic because many, many people have had 216 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 1: so many injuries. So these are all the sort of 217 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 1: pockets of the war. But then there's also going to 218 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 1: be um, you know, there's gonna be fewer men, so 219 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: there's gonna be fewer families. Uh. The war has had 220 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 1: an enormous effect on Ukraine. UM. I'm a Ukraine specialists. 221 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: I go there four times a year. Normally, I've only 222 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,199 Speaker 1: been there twice this year. I was there in February 223 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: before the war started, and then again there in September. 224 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 1: And the country feels very different and it's changing and uh, 225 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: and we simply don't know all the ways it's changing now. 226 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: But the Ukrainian people have agency. This is one of 227 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: the big differences between the Ukrainians and the Russians. So, yes, 228 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 1: there's a similar, similar people, similar language. You know, there's 229 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:10,199 Speaker 1: there's slaves, but it's very very different in terms of agency. Um. 230 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 1: Ukrainians know that that their destiny is up um up 231 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: to them, and they feel it, and they know that 232 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 1: this is an existential fight and they're going to stay 233 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: and they're going to continue to fight. Just to kind 234 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 1: of help our listeners know what they should be watching 235 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:27,559 Speaker 1: out for in the weeks to come, I wonder what 236 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:33,079 Speaker 1: impact would patriot missile battery potentially have. So the Patriot 237 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 1: the decision that the Biden may descend a Patriot system 238 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: is fantastic, but it's one air defense system. So Ukraine 239 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 1: is a really large country, and you cannot give Ukraine 240 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: enough air defense systems Madison to cover Ukraine completely. UM. 241 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,319 Speaker 1: So it's great, it's a step forward, but Ukraine needs 242 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 1: a lot more air defense systems. But it's it's not enough. 243 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:58,239 Speaker 1: It also needs jets, um, and it needs more assistance. 244 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 1: We just the United States just sent forty dollars in 245 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: humanitarian assistance to help recover that grid that we've been 246 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 1: talking about, and that's fabulous. But in order for Ukraine 247 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,719 Speaker 1: to survive the winter with these missile strikes, UH, it's 248 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,439 Speaker 1: gonna need all three. It needs the humanitarian assistance, the 249 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: air defense systems like the Patriots, uh, and then it 250 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: also needs jets. And we're not there yet. Unfortunately in 251 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 1: the West, a lot of needs there that you mentioned 252 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: in your view. Is the US being stingy or are 253 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: they being strategic in not sending more arms over I 254 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 1: think that President Biden gets a flat be is the 255 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: great I would give him, so he often he comes 256 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: to the right conclusion. He's just too slow, and I 257 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: think he's still afraid of the Russian bears. Some of 258 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 1: my old military friends like to say that we are 259 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: deterring ourselves. And I think that's a good way to 260 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: put it. Uh. Zelinski put it beautifully five days ago 261 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: when he spoke to Congress, he said, you can do more, 262 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 1: help us win. Let's do this faster. So if we 263 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: want the war to end as soon as possible, we 264 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: need to be doing more. We have done a huge 265 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: amount of the United States has given more any and 266 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: more weapons, more than any other country. But we can 267 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 1: still do more. We certainly can do more, and in particular, 268 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 1: we need to be willing to send long range rockets 269 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: and tanks that now would help tremendously, and it would 270 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: also encourage the Germans in particular to send tanks, which 271 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: is something you create have been begging for for months. 272 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 1: What's the first big battle to watch in Ukraine? In so, 273 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are watching the south. 274 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: There's still heavy fighting in her Son. That's the city 275 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: that the Ukrainians reclaimed, but there's still a lot of 276 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:35,239 Speaker 1: heavy fighting there. And her Son in the south reopens 277 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 1: or it opens Ukraine's ability to take crimea. So I 278 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 1: think a lot of eyes are going to be on 279 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: the South. Uh. You know, it's also just a question 280 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: of how long can Ukraine hold on given the circumstances. 281 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 1: The temperatures are rising right now. Uh and they are 282 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: getting that grid back up, so there's fewer blackouts, which 283 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 1: is a good thing. But I expect Plutin to continue 284 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: his cowardly strategy of attacking the grids. He has no 285 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: game on the battlefield. He can't he can't advance. Uh 286 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 1: So the Ukrainians are going to keep pushing even though 287 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: winter is here and it's harder to fight. But the 288 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 1: Ukrainians have real game and momentum. They are tired, but 289 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 1: they you know, they they have they have the ability 290 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 1: to push forward in the rest of They have that 291 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: fight in them that we've been talking about. Final twenty 292 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: seconds here, Melinda, do we see this war end in 293 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: I wish I knew the answer to that. Maybe it 294 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: depends on us. So, and I say this without being 295 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 1: being uh fas style, it depends on the West. The 296 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: West gives the money and in assistance in the Maniterranate. 297 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: Yet the work and end next year. Yeah, a lot 298 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: for us to watch and continue to cover. Melinda. Always 299 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: appreciate your insights. Thank you so much. Coming up, we're 300 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 1: talking inflation and we'll be with our panel. This is 301 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On on Bloomberg Radio. All the Federal Reserve 302 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: wanted for Christmas this year was an end to the 303 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 1: highest inflation in four decades. The million dollar question on 304 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 1: everyone's mind. Will the Fed's aggressive rate hikes get them 305 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 1: their wish? I certainly hope. So we're going to talk 306 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: to our panel about the war on Inflation in a bit, 307 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 1: But first I want to bring you the inspiring story 308 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: of how one restaurant owner is staying afloat despite these 309 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: record breaking prices we're seeing. For our DC listeners, I 310 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 1: really hope that you've been able to go to Ben's 311 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 1: Chili Bowl. It's the iconic restaurant that's become a mustop 312 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,880 Speaker 1: spot in the city. I spoke with the owner in Virginia, 313 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: Ali about how she's kept the chili bowls doors open 314 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: and one of their toughest seasons yet. Take a listen. 315 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 1: Inflation is out of control, interest rates are rising, and 316 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 1: there are recession indicators pretty much everywhere you look. And 317 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 1: all this comes as we're heading into the mid term elections. 318 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 1: So what does this mean for voters come November. Well, 319 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: we're here in the nation's capital to talk to the 320 00:17:53,600 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: owner of one small business to find out. Hello, Hello, 321 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: Welcome to Virginia. Ali a k A mom and her 322 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: late husband Ben opened Ben's Chili Bowl in right in 323 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 1: the heart of Washington, d C. Their original secret recipe 324 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: for chili and half smokes put the restaurant on the map, 325 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: quickly making it a must visit spot. The heart of 326 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 1: Ben's is what's kept the business going despite an increasingly 327 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 1: challenging economic environment. Inflation and supply chain issues, the labor shortage. 328 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 1: It all adds up. I have some of your receipts here, 329 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,479 Speaker 1: and it's fascinating scene how many times your meats just 330 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: didn't come in. That's right. When you do in that situation, well, 331 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,200 Speaker 1: you just have to make do. We could on the 332 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,639 Speaker 1: twenty five things and get four or five items the 333 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 1: drivers and they get here, he's like, oh, there are 334 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: only five items on their truck. In two we did 335 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: have to raise prices about five u s. Food costs 336 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 1: her up eleven point four from a year ago, the 337 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: most since nineteen seventy nine, and the cost of beef, 338 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 1: which is of course among the biggest costs for Ben's, 339 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 1: ballooned by eight point eight percent year over year as 340 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 1: of this August. All of these challenges put together that 341 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: has the changed what you are looking for from your government, 342 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 1: from your political representatives, and they need to come together 343 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 1: on both sides of the aisle. We need to get 344 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: out there and both for the people that we believe 345 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 1: can get that job done. It's just a little hot place, 346 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 1: I always say, but it's um the place that welcomes 347 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: people from all walks of life. Again, that was Virginia Ali, 348 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: the owner of Ben's Chili Bowl, chatting with me on 349 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,159 Speaker 1: the ground in d C. We're gonna get to our 350 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 1: panel to discuss inflation. We've got Lester months In, the 351 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: former staff director of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and 352 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: we've got Tim Hogan, a Democratic strategist and former communications 353 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: director for Amy Abachar. Thank you both for joining us 354 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 1: on our panel this evening. I want to start by 355 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: getting both of you to grade Congress for me. If 356 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 1: if you could just give me a letter grade, what 357 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,360 Speaker 1: do you give Congress in their work to fight inflation 358 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 1: over these past two years? And Lester, I'm gonna start 359 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,680 Speaker 1: off with you on that. Uh. Well, I think we 360 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 1: have to give Congress and f for fighting inflation the 361 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 1: last two years. Uh Yeah, inflation was out of control. 362 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: It's the highest it's been in a couple of generations. 363 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,120 Speaker 1: I'm old enough to remember what it was like back 364 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: in the seventies, when it was when inflation was even 365 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 1: worse than it is now. Uh. This, this isn't quite 366 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 1: that bad, but boy, it's bad. And Congress kept spending 367 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,159 Speaker 1: like a drunken sailor. Uh. And so I think, you know, 368 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: given the role that federal government spending plays in enhancing inflation, 369 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 1: I think we have to give Congress enough. Yeah, I 370 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: like to say that I'm old enough to remember when 371 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,160 Speaker 1: inflation was still transitory. Tim can I can I at 372 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 1: your take on that as well? What do you think 373 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the slightly more optimistic route of incomplete. 374 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,919 Speaker 1: I think there is a bunch of work still to 375 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 1: be done. But where we are right now, we're seeing 376 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,880 Speaker 1: some continual decreases in inflation and looks like we're heading 377 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 1: in the right direction. I feel like when we were 378 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: talking about transitory inflation, you know, optimists wanted to dismiss 379 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 1: all the good news, and now we're kind of in 380 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: a place where pessimists want to dismiss all the all 381 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 1: the good news. As well, so I think you know, 382 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: we're seeing gas prices are down twenty cents from where 383 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 1: they were last year, most common gas prices like to 384 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 1: across the country right now, and we've see some key 385 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: reports that inflation that catalogs consumer items are cooling down 386 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,360 Speaker 1: as well. So we're coming out of it. I think 387 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:45,919 Speaker 1: there's still a lot of work to be done and 388 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,439 Speaker 1: we have to recognize that people are feeling the crunch, 389 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: but we are making progress. Well, Tim, let me stick 390 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 1: with you on those gas prices, because I have to 391 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:58,439 Speaker 1: wonder whether low gas prices are enough to move the 392 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: needle for voters. Come If gas prices are down but 393 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 1: we're seeing costs of services go up, which we're seeing 394 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: in the inflation data right now, is that gonna make 395 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 1: decisions for voters. Well, I think we face Democrats faced 396 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 1: the toughest environment for ourselves in two I mean we 397 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: are just coming out of an election, and I think 398 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 1: when given a choice and not just a referendum on 399 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 1: how do you feel about the economy? Uh, Democrats outperformed 400 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 1: historically in both the Senate, gaining seats and House holding 401 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: onto seats, and I think there are also things that 402 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: have been dealt with that, we're making progress and like 403 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,400 Speaker 1: addressing supply chain issues, we're shipping rates for drastically increasing. 404 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 1: Those have slowed down a little bit. Other areas of 405 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: the economy we're seeing a little bit of cooling to 406 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,199 Speaker 1: those rapid rent increases for new tenants. It looks like 407 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 1: it's cooled down, consumer confidences up a little bit. So 408 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: by no means, you know, is the economic reality very 409 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: easy for everybody. But I think we are taking steps 410 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: in the right direction. Tim, we gotta get you on 411 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 1: the phone with j Powell with these optimistic takes here, um, Lester, 412 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: I want to get your reaction to that. Specifically, regarding 413 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 1: the mid terms, we really thought inflation was going to 414 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,239 Speaker 1: be the story, and the week leading up to it, 415 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: you know, I was covering abortion just dropping and pulling 416 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: as a key issue, inflation rising, Um, But of course 417 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,919 Speaker 1: we still saw Democrats retaining control of the Senate. What 418 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: do you make of that? Well, I think Republicans botched 419 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 1: historic opportunity to really galvanize some some successes for the party. 420 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,640 Speaker 1: I think it goes to nominating candidates who were who 421 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,120 Speaker 1: were seen by independent voters as just a little too 422 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: crazy to vote for. UH and so that these uh, 423 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,120 Speaker 1: and I think we all know where those candidates were 424 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: in Georgia, Pennsylvania, UM, even New Mexico where this this 425 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,679 Speaker 1: kind of Trump message just isn't playing at all the 426 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 1: way it was six years ago. Republicans need to pivot 427 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 1: away from that and move towards the more traditional economic 428 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 1: responsibility message, sensible foreign policy, that kind of thing, and 429 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: away from and away from this populace in which I 430 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,439 Speaker 1: think is burning itself out. So I think Democrats. I 431 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:16,880 Speaker 1: give credits to Democrats, uh for good messaging and identifying 432 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: weak candidates and really highlighting that Democrats had had a 433 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,439 Speaker 1: tough had a tough case to make in the last election, 434 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 1: but they succeeded. Republicans really gave them that opportunity. Well, 435 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,439 Speaker 1: it's it's an interesting story that we're of course going 436 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 1: to continue to be covering here. But I kind of 437 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,399 Speaker 1: want to end where we started our show, which is 438 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,639 Speaker 1: on Ukraine. Lester, you are a foreign policy guy. I 439 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 1: want to get your take on Biden's so called Prus 440 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,360 Speaker 1: putin price hikes line. You might remember from earlier this year. 441 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 1: Let's take a listen. Well, we saw the most apprecient 442 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 1: inflation data last month about the increase inflation was a 443 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: consequence of prudence price side, because the impact on gas 444 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 1: and energy prices is the idea that Putin's price hike 445 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 1: is that is that debunked at this point, Lester boy, 446 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,679 Speaker 1: I hope. So what a terrible argument to make, just 447 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 1: just lacked credibility across across the board. Uh. And you know, 448 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 1: if you're a foreign policy person, you get concerned that 449 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: that kind of political messaging tied too closely to a 450 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,560 Speaker 1: foreign policy is gonna is going to put that policy 451 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 1: at risk. There are some Americans who are skeptical about 452 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 1: US getting involved at all in any kind of European conflict. Uh. 453 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 1: And so the President trying to politicize what was what 454 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,880 Speaker 1: was going on with Ukraine was really irresponsible in my view. 455 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 1: I'm glad the White House moved away from that messaging, 456 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 1: but they really never should have done in the first place. Tim, 457 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 1: Can I get your quick response to that as well. 458 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: I think there's that, but there's also a conflation of 459 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,880 Speaker 1: a lot of different factors that make energy that make 460 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 1: gasoline more expensive. And I think what you saw the 461 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: White House talk about later was record corporate profits, And 462 00:25:57,880 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 1: I agree, I think that is a better place for them, 463 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,479 Speaker 1: better for the better suited for them to take their messaging. Alright, Well, 464 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 1: I want to get some breaking news in before I 465 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 1: let you both go. We're just learning crossing on the 466 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 1: terminal the Supreme Court orders Title forty two border restrictions 467 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,880 Speaker 1: kept in effect. Tim, Can you give me your reaction 468 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,640 Speaker 1: to that, especially as you know we're seeing so much 469 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 1: news about immigration right now with migrants getting dropped off 470 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 1: outside the house of Vice President Kamala Harris UM on 471 00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,920 Speaker 1: Christmas Eve. What do you make of that's go disorder? Yeah, 472 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,640 Speaker 1: well it's interesting. It looks like it's a five for order. 473 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 1: It's a victory for Republican led states that urged the 474 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 1: Supreme Court to step in and sort of block a 475 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,840 Speaker 1: lower court opinion UM that ordered the termination of the 476 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,159 Speaker 1: authority by an administration has said it was prepared for 477 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 1: the authority to end UM and put in place precautions 478 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:50,439 Speaker 1: to guard against confusion at the border and other surges 479 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,400 Speaker 1: of migrants. I just like to take a step back 480 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: for a second on on immigration policy and just what 481 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 1: is happening with Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas, shipping migrants 482 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:03,480 Speaker 1: to uh Kamala Harris, Vice President Kamala Harris's house to 483 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 1: her resident. Uh, it is just it's beyond hypocritical. I 484 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 1: know that it's not exactly a title forty two issue, 485 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: but to see that happen on Christmas Eve, a party 486 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 1: that claims that they are pro life to do that 487 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,239 Speaker 1: drop people off in eighteen degree weather is just abysmal. Well, 488 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 1: We're going to continue to dig into these very important 489 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:26,280 Speaker 1: topics with our panel as our show continues. This is 490 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:31,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On on Bloomberg Radio. If you were traveling 491 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 1: this weekend and you did not face any delays or cancelations, 492 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 1: first of all, I'm extremely jealous, And second, I really 493 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,479 Speaker 1: want you to go buy a lottery ticket for yourself, 494 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:44,720 Speaker 1: because you're extremely lucky. Thousands of people stranded at airports 495 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 1: across the US today. The main culprit for cancelations Southwest 496 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 1: Airlines canceling upwards of six of its flights Tuesday. So 497 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,200 Speaker 1: is the bad weather the villain here? Or is air 498 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 1: travel just recovering from the pandemic and all of the 499 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,440 Speaker 1: labor shortage is that every other industry is facing. Here 500 00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 1: to discuss is Jeff Wise. He's an aviation journalist and documentarian. 501 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,160 Speaker 1: Jeff Thank you so much for being here. I want 502 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 1: to start off by just asking you why why is 503 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,360 Speaker 1: this happening? What's going on with Southwest? Why are they 504 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,439 Speaker 1: the main culporate here. Well, you know, to coin a phrase, 505 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 1: I think I'd call it a perfect storm. Um. You know, 506 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 1: of course we had the bad weather that was terrible. 507 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:25,919 Speaker 1: You know, all this is one of the biggest, biggest 508 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,359 Speaker 1: travel weeks of the year, and also Southwest had you know, 509 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,719 Speaker 1: just there were peculiar aspects for how Southwest happens to function, 510 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,640 Speaker 1: the way they run their group network UM, and basically 511 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: everything came together to be an absolute disaster for Southwest. 512 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: So there, you know, still struggling to UM move their 513 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 1: equipment around. UM they had to uh, they had personnel 514 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 1: who were stuck over here, equipment that was stuck over there, 515 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: and they just didn't have the resilience in their network 516 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 1: to cope with all of the different kinds of adages 517 00:28:58,120 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 1: that they had to cope with. Yeah, it seems like 518 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 1: south West has been dealing with some of those network 519 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: issues for a while now. UH City Analysts today is 520 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 1: saying that this could really hurt Southwest profits in the 521 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 1: fourth quarter by up to five percent. Even can you 522 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 1: talk to me about how a situation like this can 523 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 1: impact a company's bottom line that much. Well, this is 524 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 1: such a public relations disaster, you know, when people are 525 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 1: making the decisions about which you know, which carrier am 526 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:27,440 Speaker 1: I going to take? You know, nowadays everyone can go 527 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 1: onto their flight planning software and like all the options 528 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 1: are right there in front of them, and you know 529 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 1: a lot of people might choose on price or convenience, 530 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 1: you know how much time they have to spend connecting. 531 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 1: But when you have something like this debacle front of 532 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:46,080 Speaker 1: people's minds, um, you know, of course it's going to 533 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,840 Speaker 1: play a role. Yeah, of course. I love that you 534 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 1: are an expert and aviation journalist. By the way, because 535 00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 1: after the travel weekend that I had, I've really developed 536 00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 1: a deep bias against flying. So I'm hoping, I'm hoping 537 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 1: that you can kind of restore restore my love for 538 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 1: aviation here, Jeff. I mean, do do I have hope here? 539 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 1: Is this going to get better? I mean, maybe, uh, 540 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 1: we should take a lesson from France where they just 541 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 1: recently outlawed um flights less than two and a half hours, 542 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 1: where you can take alternate motive transportation. They're trying to 543 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,480 Speaker 1: decarbonize and um working on a Business Week article about 544 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,960 Speaker 1: this actually, but UM, yeah, I mean we we we 545 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 1: have sort of put all our eggs in our basket 546 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,600 Speaker 1: in terms of transportation needs on flying and um, you 547 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 1: know a lot of high speed rail projects have been killed. 548 00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 1: Um and when when when things like this happened? You know, 549 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 1: it's a it's a mode of transportation that is very 550 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:46,160 Speaker 1: vulnerable to severe weather. Right. Well, and that's what I mean. 551 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 1: It was interesting seeing Amtrak trending so much on Twitter 552 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,720 Speaker 1: to today getting all of this love. I was like, 553 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 1: where's the m track love been prior to these to 554 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 1: these cancelations? I wonder if you can also just explain 555 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 1: to me the difference between of cancelations and delays. When 556 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 1: I was um at the airport in Seattle over the weekend, 557 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 1: some gay agents were telling me that, you know, the 558 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 1: airlines will delay a flight by over twenty four hours 559 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 1: because that's better for the airline than them racking up 560 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:18,959 Speaker 1: another cancelation point, you know, against their record. Um, do 561 00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 1: you know anything about that from your reporting? Is that 562 00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 1: delineation really happening on the back end at these airlines? 563 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,840 Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it's just it's mere words. Really, 564 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 1: I mean, from the point of view of the traveler, 565 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:34,040 Speaker 1: if if your flight is delayed twenty four hours, obviously 566 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 1: doesn't make any difference to you. What what kind of 567 00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 1: you know, So the f a A rates the the 568 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 1: on time record of airlines based on, you know, whether 569 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:48,640 Speaker 1: they are able to push back within a certain time frame. Um, 570 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,160 Speaker 1: when you're talking about twenty delay, obviously that's you know, 571 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 1: way off the way off the parameters. Um, this is 572 00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 1: it seems insane in this context where they've they've canceled 573 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 1: over two thousand flights, um and as you said in 574 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 1: the intro or something of of all their flights canceled. 575 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,479 Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, this is this kind of linguistic you know, 576 00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 1: finessing is not gonna really it's like rearranging the deck 577 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 1: chairs on Titanic at this point right right like either way, 578 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: you're sleeping in the airport, So it doesn't really matter 579 00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,720 Speaker 1: what it's called in the end, you know, of course, 580 00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 1: you know that's the Department of Transportation Transportation saying today 581 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: they're looking into cancelations to see if they could have 582 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 1: been prevented from Southwest? How do you suss that out? 583 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 1: Given the weather events that we're having. And like you said, 584 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,200 Speaker 1: the network issues of Southwest, how can the d O 585 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:44,080 Speaker 1: T kind of determine culpability of the airline here. I mean, 586 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,760 Speaker 1: this sounds like, um, just me editorializing. It sounds like 587 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,840 Speaker 1: someone trying to seem like they're doing something. I mean, 588 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 1: the airline wants to run, um it's dispatch operations like 589 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,800 Speaker 1: this if they want to have this kind of relationship 590 00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 1: with their staff. UM. I mean the big picture context 591 00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 1: is that, you know, we had the coronavirus, We had 592 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:11,040 Speaker 1: airlines shedding capacity, We had airlines um furlowing pilots and 593 00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,240 Speaker 1: and flight attendants and so forth, and then having to 594 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 1: rebound from that lack of capacity. And so I think 595 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 1: we're still in a sense dealing with the after effects 596 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,280 Speaker 1: of the coronavirus and and so and everything else. You know, 597 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:26,680 Speaker 1: it's a tight labor market. People can can do other things. Um. 598 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 1: And so they've they've really had staffing problems. And you know, 599 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 1: traditionally Southwest was considered a company that prioritized this relationship 600 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:40,000 Speaker 1: with its staff, with its employees. UM that this is this, 601 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 1: this is counter evidence to that this This is a 602 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 1: hit to the reputation not regard right, right, makes a 603 00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,000 Speaker 1: lot of sense. I know that. Also there were just 604 00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,440 Speaker 1: issues with Jet Blue having a lot of employees calling 605 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,680 Speaker 1: out sick, which led to a lot of issues with 606 00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 1: staffing as well. So as we head into Jeff, are 607 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:02,040 Speaker 1: these airlines in a healthy state and if not, what 608 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,000 Speaker 1: do they need to do to get there? I mean, 609 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:09,800 Speaker 1: there's always this balance right between resilience UM and having 610 00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:13,960 Speaker 1: the capacity to deal with the unexpected UM and efficiency. 611 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,799 Speaker 1: And when you are running a lean, mean operation and 612 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 1: everything is you know, there's not an ounce of fat 613 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 1: on your operation, it's very profitable, but it's very dangerous 614 00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:24,960 Speaker 1: because when the unexpected thing happens, and when yeah, and 615 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,920 Speaker 1: I hadn't even mentioned the fact that there's this um, 616 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 1: you know, new wave of coronavirus as well, so that 617 00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,359 Speaker 1: people are, as you said, calling it six. So when 618 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,480 Speaker 1: you have everything happened all at once and you've been 619 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:39,759 Speaker 1: running even prioritizing excuse me, prioritizing efficiency, it really bites 620 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,399 Speaker 1: you in the button. So it sounds like, if I'm 621 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: understanding you correctly, the labor issue is the single biggest 622 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,720 Speaker 1: factor contributing to some of these issues here. Obviously, something 623 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,440 Speaker 1: extreme like weather has an impact, but it sounds like 624 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,600 Speaker 1: the underlying, you know, core issue might be labor. Is 625 00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:58,480 Speaker 1: that how you would describe it. I mean it's like 626 00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 1: which is more important, the brain or the heart? You know, 627 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,440 Speaker 1: It's like you can kill one and your your dad 628 00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 1: either way. I mean, Southwest had so many things against it, 629 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,320 Speaker 1: even the way that they so a lot of the 630 00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 1: major carriers are very much hub and spoke oriented, really 631 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,000 Speaker 1: just operate mainly out of a couple of major airports, 632 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:18,040 Speaker 1: whereas Southwest is much more distributed, and so it was 633 00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,719 Speaker 1: harder for them to reposition equipment where they needed it. 634 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,120 Speaker 1: And so that was just part of the problem. Um 635 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 1: and and they also had problems with their um their software, 636 00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:32,480 Speaker 1: the the way that they dispatched their their planes and there, 637 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:34,399 Speaker 1: and the way they keep track of their staff and 638 00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:38,959 Speaker 1: and notify their staff and and so there's a lot there. 639 00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:42,799 Speaker 1: They're definitely going to be waking up after this is 640 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,640 Speaker 1: all over and thinking, Okay, what do we do different? 641 00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 1: And I think the stock market is going to be 642 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,160 Speaker 1: looking at that too, And I'm sure the shareholder is 643 00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:51,840 Speaker 1: going to be looking at that too and thinking, well, Okay, 644 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,520 Speaker 1: this this is a this something, this is this is 645 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,839 Speaker 1: a moment of clarity hopefully, hopefully, well, we'll see. I 646 00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 1: certainly hope that um I can be the hope next 647 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,840 Speaker 1: holiday season and not have to get on an airplane. 648 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 1: But Jeff really appreciate your insights on this and your coverage. 649 00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,800 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. That was Jeff 650 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,120 Speaker 1: wise talking with us about the airline issues this holiday season. 651 00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 1: We'll have more here ahead on sound On. This is 652 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:27,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg sound On on Bloomberg Radio. Bloomberg sound On brought 653 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,680 Speaker 1: to you by Innovation Refunds to see if you're small 654 00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,839 Speaker 1: or medium sized business could be missing out on an opportunity. 655 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:37,960 Speaker 1: Was your business impacted by COVID nineteen and it may 656 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:42,040 Speaker 1: qualify for the employee retention credit. The professionals that Innovation 657 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,719 Speaker 1: Refunds can help your business recover from the pandemic. See 658 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:47,719 Speaker 1: how much could be waiting for your business at get 659 00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:51,960 Speaker 1: refunds dot com. Alright, Well, upwards of eight thousand flights 660 00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 1: were canceled by Southwest Airlines on Tuesday. It's a miracle 661 00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 1: that I am here for the show this morning after 662 00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,120 Speaker 1: a couple of days in the Seattle Airport. It's also 663 00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,600 Speaker 1: a miracle that our handle is here. So let's check 664 00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,000 Speaker 1: in with them. We've got Lesser Months in principle of 665 00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,400 Speaker 1: government relations firm b GR Group and former staff director 666 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,880 Speaker 1: of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. We've also got Tim Hogan, 667 00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:15,919 Speaker 1: Democratic strategist and former communications director for Amy Clobar. Guys, 668 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,200 Speaker 1: thanks for sticking with us here. I was going to 669 00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:20,880 Speaker 1: ask you to tell me your travel horror stories, but 670 00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,000 Speaker 1: we've got this breaking news from the White House making 671 00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,239 Speaker 1: a statement on Title forty two, so we're gonna stick 672 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,120 Speaker 1: with that. The White House says it will comply with 673 00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,720 Speaker 1: the Supreme Courts order to keep the current Title forty 674 00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:34,839 Speaker 1: two policy in place. Lester, I want to get your 675 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,920 Speaker 1: take on this. How big of a story is this? 676 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,120 Speaker 1: Breaking news? Is this? Is this going to move the 677 00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 1: needle much on immigration heading into Well, I think the 678 00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:50,879 Speaker 1: Supreme Court did the Biden administration a big favor by 679 00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,279 Speaker 1: keeping these restrictions in place. I think that I think 680 00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:56,080 Speaker 1: the administration was going to have a real dilemma if 681 00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:59,920 Speaker 1: those restrictions went away. They were going to be forced 682 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:04,120 Speaker 1: to kind of count out to their immigration extreme wing 683 00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,080 Speaker 1: of their party, which holds a position that's just not 684 00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:10,759 Speaker 1: very popular with Americans. This this is a gift in 685 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 1: many ways to the Biden administration. So I'm not surprised 686 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,479 Speaker 1: when they come out and say they're gonna they're gonna 687 00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,319 Speaker 1: comply with it. Of course they have to comply with it, 688 00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,160 Speaker 1: but this is this is actually good news for President Biden. 689 00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,279 Speaker 1: Our our usual host Joe Matthew had a guest on 690 00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:26,000 Speaker 1: the show last week who talked about immigration sort of 691 00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:31,759 Speaker 1: being a political football, particularly as we head into the election. Uh, 692 00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,920 Speaker 1: you know, just stating this idea that Republicans might hold 693 00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:40,279 Speaker 1: out on moving the needle on immigration legislation because immigration 694 00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:44,360 Speaker 1: chaos tends to lead to votes for Republicans. And that 695 00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,840 Speaker 1: was according to this guest we had on last week. Tim, 696 00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:49,520 Speaker 1: What is it? What is your take on that idea? 697 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,759 Speaker 1: Do you think Republicans could could use this as as 698 00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:57,920 Speaker 1: a motivating factor heading into I mean, it's entirely possible. 699 00:38:57,960 --> 00:38:59,719 Speaker 1: I think there's a wing of the Republican Party that 700 00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:03,719 Speaker 1: will always view immigration as a wedge issue. And I 701 00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,520 Speaker 1: don't think there's really a coherent philosophy for the Republican 702 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,960 Speaker 1: Party anymore when it comes to immigration. But there are 703 00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,200 Speaker 1: some very loud mouthpieces out there, and I'm talking senators, 704 00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:15,120 Speaker 1: representatives as well as cable networks that will see the 705 00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:18,600 Speaker 1: value of leading into a cooked up caravan heading towards 706 00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:21,920 Speaker 1: the border. We've seen that play repeat itself as we 707 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,440 Speaker 1: get closer to the mid terms. But there is serious 708 00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,560 Speaker 1: work to be done in terms of border security. There 709 00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,560 Speaker 1: is a middle ground that is very popular. I mean, 710 00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,319 Speaker 1: going all the way back a decade ago too, when 711 00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:36,400 Speaker 1: we were debating comprehensive immigration reform. It passed the Senate, 712 00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,520 Speaker 1: the bipartisan manner, got stalled in the House simply because 713 00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,400 Speaker 1: John Bayner speakers done. John Baynor wouldn't bring it up 714 00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,799 Speaker 1: for a vote. And the reality is we have the vote. 715 00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:46,239 Speaker 1: It would have passed it if it would have been 716 00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,759 Speaker 1: broughten up. So here we are a decade later having 717 00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:50,920 Speaker 1: some of the same conversations about the investments that we 718 00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,160 Speaker 1: need to make about having a pathway to citizens citizenship 719 00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,719 Speaker 1: for dreamers. And yeah, it's to your point, it is 720 00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:01,080 Speaker 1: something that Republicans use as a political football to the 721 00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,239 Speaker 1: detriment of the nation. Lester, what is your take on 722 00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:08,400 Speaker 1: that and where do you see this heading in. I 723 00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:10,640 Speaker 1: think it's I think the immigration issue can be a 724 00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:14,600 Speaker 1: political football. Absolutely, it's a limited utility. We saw President 725 00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,560 Speaker 1: Trump try to make it a big issue in it 726 00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:21,759 Speaker 1: didn't work. Meanwhile, the Biden administration, the White House likes 727 00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,120 Speaker 1: to think that there's no issue at all on the border, 728 00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 1: that they can just act as if nothing, as if 729 00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,080 Speaker 1: there's no problem at all. I don't think that plays 730 00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:32,359 Speaker 1: well for them either. So this is this is like 731 00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:35,880 Speaker 1: a battle between not just the forties, but like the 732 00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,799 Speaker 1: forty nine yard lines. Both both parties are close to 733 00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,799 Speaker 1: the middle and they're kind of fighting over really miniscule 734 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,960 Speaker 1: turf here that the benefits for either side are not great, 735 00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:49,440 Speaker 1: But I think it's it's definitely something that's gonna be 736 00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:53,920 Speaker 1: denagogue frankly, by both sides. It's something that we're going 737 00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:57,239 Speaker 1: to be covering as we head to that election, and 738 00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,920 Speaker 1: of course as we get updates here follow us at 739 00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg for all the breaking news that you need on 740 00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,720 Speaker 1: this and every other story. For now, I'm Madis Mills 741 00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,880 Speaker 1: and this is sound On. Thanks for listening. H