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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We are approaching this midnight deadline for countries to reach

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Speaker 2: trade agreements or not with the United States and face

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Speaker 2: the implementation of them tomorrow, August first, and of course

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Speaker 2: later on today, Joe. We will also hear from President

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Speaker 2: Trump himself as he's getting set to sign executive orders

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Speaker 2: and welcoming the press in as he does.

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Speaker 3: So I have to admit, I mean, there's always tomorrow,

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Speaker 3: but this just feels like one of those days when

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Speaker 3: he walks into the briefing room.

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Speaker 4: It could be one of those.

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Speaker 2: Days when he wants to can't rule anything out.

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Speaker 3: Shape the narrative here, because we're all asking the same questions,

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Speaker 3: is that it remember ninety deals in ninety days. We

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Speaker 3: technically got eight deals in one hundred and twenty days.

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Speaker 3: Realizing one of those deals includes the full block of

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Speaker 3: the EU, we could frame that as more than one deal.

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Speaker 3: I guess but look, we could get more where this

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Speaker 3: came from. As we mentioned earlier, Kaylee, the update on

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Speaker 3: Canada is not good. As the President says, its decision

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Speaker 3: to recognize a Palestinian state as a deal breaker when

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Speaker 3: it comes to trade, Mexico gets a ninety day reprieve.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to the White House to see what else

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Speaker 3: we may have learned here in the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall is on the north lawn

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Speaker 3: of the White House right now. To bring more to

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Speaker 3: us here, Tyler, what's happening in that building behind you?

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Speaker 4: Is the President done?

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Speaker 5: Hey Joe.

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Speaker 6: At this point it's not really clearer though. At four

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Speaker 6: pm Eastern, as Cayley mentioned there, he's going to welcome

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Speaker 6: the press into the Oval Office sign some executive orders.

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Speaker 6: We'll have to see if those include actually putting pen

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Speaker 6: to paper when it comes to putting these different terror

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Speaker 6: freights into effect, because keep in mind, so far, all

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Speaker 6: we've really gotten are these truth social posts, the letters

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Speaker 6: that he sent, but we actually have to see the

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Speaker 6: formal documents to see what's actually in the text and

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Speaker 6: going to go into place now you mentioned there, of course,

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Speaker 6: Mexico was pretty big news today getting that ninety day reprieve.

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Speaker 6: That was perhaps unexpected considering that the White House had

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Speaker 6: said that there would not be any extension when it

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Speaker 6: came to that August first deadline. That we should keep

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Speaker 6: in mind that Mexico is actually the United States largest

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Speaker 6: trading partner, perhaps why we've heard administration officials say that

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Speaker 6: the country would get a little bit more of a

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Speaker 6: preferential position when it comes to these negotiations. A lot though,

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Speaker 6: that we're still tracking, and a lot more that could

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Speaker 6: still be on the table. Keep in mind you mentioned Canada.

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Speaker 6: We also haven't heard about Australia, for example. And then

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Speaker 6: two countries Joe and Kelly, I'll put on your radar

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Speaker 6: that we could get an update later today, Thailand and Cambodia.

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Speaker 6: The Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik last night said that they

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Speaker 6: had finished those agreements, but we've yet to see what

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Speaker 6: that lower rate could be. Right now, they're facing a

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Speaker 6: thirty six percent tariff, comparatively higher to what their neighboring

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Speaker 6: nations have gotten in that region.

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Speaker 2: Well, what we consider that region, tyler, in which of

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Speaker 2: course China features incredibly heavily. Do we have an understanding

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Speaker 2: of how it went when the Treasury Secretary Scott vesstt

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Speaker 2: USTR Jamison Greer brief President Trump on their negotiations with

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Speaker 2: China in Stockholm earlier this week.

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Speaker 6: So we've heard from President Trump that it's gone positively.

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Speaker 6: In an interview earlier today, the Treasury Secretary said that

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Speaker 6: they were still working out some of the technical pieces

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Speaker 6: when it came to an updates to the trade talks. There,

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Speaker 6: we are expecting a ninety day pause to go into

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Speaker 6: effect when it does come to keeping this de escalation

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Speaker 6: on track, because essentially that's what those Stockholm talks were, right.

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Speaker 6: We heard the USTR basically amount them to a check

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Speaker 6: in make sure that both sides are living up to

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Speaker 6: the agreement that was reached in London, which is really

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Speaker 6: about the agreement that was reached in Geneva. Make sure

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Speaker 6: that those magnets are flowing into the United States and

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Speaker 6: that the US is upholding its end in terms of

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Speaker 6: perhaps loosening some export controls for less advanced semiconductor chips.

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Speaker 6: They want to this process going and make sure that

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Speaker 6: they're still talking, but we know that there are a

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Speaker 6: lot of sticking points on the table. These are going

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Speaker 6: to be talks that take a long time to accomplish,

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Speaker 6: just one that we haven't really spoken about a lot.

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Speaker 6: But we heard the Commerce Secretary in an interview earlier

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Speaker 6: this week say that the TikTok deal is happening adjacent

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Speaker 6: to these talks. Things like that that really do come

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Speaker 6: into the picture and the negotiating picture that just make

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Speaker 6: this all the more complicated.

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Speaker 3: I don't know what they're trucking in there, Tyler, but

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Speaker 3: if you need to get out of the way there

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Speaker 3: in the driveway, this is a working White House, obviously, Tyler.

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Speaker 4: Thank you so much, as always for being with us.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall live on the North lawn

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Speaker 3: at the White House. We try to seek voices of experience, practitioners,

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Speaker 3: people who have been in the process of, in this case,

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Speaker 3: cutting trade deals to get a better sense of what's

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Speaker 3: happening here at the White House. Kaylee, We've talked so

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Speaker 3: much about the lack of paper, the lack of detail,

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Speaker 3: and we thought we'd talked to somebody who's actually been

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Speaker 3: in the room for these deals to get a better

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Speaker 3: sense of what they mean.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm pleased to say joining US now here on

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Speaker 2: balance of power is a former US Trade Representative himself,

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Speaker 2: Ron Kirk, who served in that position from twenty nine

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Speaker 2: to twenty thirteen in the Obama administration. Ambassador, thank you

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Speaker 2: for being with us once again on Bloomberg TV and radio.

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Speaker 2: As we consider what are being described as deals here.

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Speaker 2: Does it meet your definition of a deal? Do any

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Speaker 2: of them?

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Speaker 7: You know?

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Speaker 8: They are not trade deals in the traditional sense of

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Speaker 8: a formal treating like the USMCA or other agreements that

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Speaker 8: are enforceable, or even agreements in which Congress signs all

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Speaker 8: phone them. But I think our partner countries have accepted

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Speaker 8: the fact that we are just in uncharted waters in

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Speaker 8: terms of this administration and the fact that the President

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Speaker 8: is using heretofore never used authority with these emergency economic

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Speaker 8: powers and are just trying and what could be a

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Speaker 8: horrific situation not only for them, but I keep stressing

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Speaker 8: the point this is not good for American business nor families,

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Speaker 8: because no matter how many times the administration says that

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Speaker 8: whatever the tariff rates are, they're going to be vastly

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Speaker 8: higher than they were last year, as essentially zero two percent,

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Speaker 8: and they're going to be paid by small businesses, large

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Speaker 8: American importers, and ultimately American families and consumers.

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Speaker 3: What do you make of President Trump's conflating of geopolitics

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Speaker 3: with trade policy. We've seen this take place now with

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Speaker 3: India and Pakistan, Cambodia and Thailand. In the case of today,

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Speaker 3: Canada recognizing it, says well, we'll formally recognize the Palestinian state.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump says, that's a deal breaker. We can't have

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Speaker 3: a trade deal with Canada. That would be the definition

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Speaker 3: of uncharted territory. But what does it mean for both

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Speaker 3: our trade policy and our geopolitics in our relationships.

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Speaker 8: And in fairness, there have been cases in the past

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Speaker 8: where there were overriding geopolitical factors that prevented us from

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Speaker 8: moving forward with a trade agreement. You may remember the

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Speaker 8: Columbia Agreement, which I inherited when I served as Trade

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Speaker 8: rep for President Obama, was stalled because a member of

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Speaker 8: the Colombian government had murdered a US soldier. But in

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Speaker 8: this case, I think it's the lack of consistency Joe

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Speaker 8: that bothers people. A number of the member states of

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Speaker 8: the European Union have also spoken out and been even

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Speaker 8: before Canada saying that they thought there should be a

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Speaker 8: Palestinian state. But the biggest thing that troubles me and

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Speaker 8: talking the businesses, what they want is some sense of

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Speaker 8: what the plane field is going to be, some level

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Speaker 8: of stability. Tell them what the rules are going to be,

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Speaker 8: because all of us, I think, will to support the

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Speaker 8: President's desire to bring manufacturing back. But as you know

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Speaker 8: from talking to businesses every day, the uncertainty, the on again,

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Speaker 8: off again nature of these tariffs makes it impossible for

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Speaker 8: businesses to try to forecast and plan ahead. And in

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Speaker 8: the interim, you have a number of businesses, particularly small businesses,

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Speaker 8: that are just suffering under the weight of these tariffs

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Speaker 8: and looking for relief.

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Speaker 2: Well, and of course some of those businesses in some

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Speaker 2: US states have taken to the courts to try to

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Speaker 2: find that relief. As you well know, Ambassador, there was

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Speaker 2: a court challenge on the president's use of IEPA powers,

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Speaker 2: specifically a suggestion that the legal mechanism for which he

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Speaker 2: is using to apply a lot of these tariffs may

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Speaker 2: not actually hold water. An appeals court is actually considering

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Speaker 2: that very question today, though it's unclear when we'll get

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Speaker 2: a ruling. What would be the course of action for

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Speaker 2: the President if indeed the appeals court decides that AIPA

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Speaker 2: is not applicable in the vast majority of these cases, if.

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Speaker 8: The court were to rule in favor of the plaintiffs,

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Speaker 8: who in most cases have been small businesses, and that

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Speaker 8: is questionable given the latitude the courts have given this administration.

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Speaker 8: But if they were, then the President would have to

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Speaker 8: follow the traditional legal norms that Congress has put in

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Speaker 8: place for the President to be able to level levy

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Speaker 8: tariffs outside of the normal protocol, and those would be

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Speaker 8: the terrorists for example, that he has talked about with Brazil.

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Speaker 8: I don't want to get two technical under a three

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Speaker 8: to old one of this investigation. And then there is

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Speaker 8: a different section of the trade law that allows the

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Speaker 8: president to levy some terror some of the national security concerns.

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Speaker 8: But in each of those, businesses have to have the

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Speaker 8: ability to go in file share information with the administration

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Speaker 8: on how those tariffs may or may not impact their businesses.

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Speaker 8: It is a much more informed process. That's what the

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Speaker 8: President did the first time. I mean, I'm told he

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Speaker 8: was frustrated by that pace, and that's one reason he

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Speaker 8: has used this very novel approach of relying on an

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Speaker 8: emergency economic power that has never been used before.

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Speaker 3: The Levy terraffs the ambassador, referring to it as a

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Speaker 3: novel approach. Ron Kirk, the President says, the deadline will

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Speaker 3: not move. Well, I guess unless you're Mexico. But if

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Speaker 3: that's the case, what's that He told.

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Speaker 8: That the deadline wasn't going to move on Liberation Day.

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Speaker 8: He told us it wasn't good, and I think look

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Speaker 8: and not to make light of it. The one reason

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Speaker 8: I think you've seen the markets not overreact to this

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Speaker 8: is they've become a little bit dependent on the belief

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Speaker 8: that when he gets up to the point of knowing

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Speaker 8: the economic harm these tariffs would inflict, he has found

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Speaker 8: the way to back away. He did it with China,

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Speaker 8: did it with Mexico. Today, we've done it with Japan.

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Speaker 8: So we'll have to see, well know, by I guess

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Speaker 8: noon tomorrow or not.

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Speaker 3: I look at the you know, I don't know if

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Speaker 3: you like Taco's ambassador, but the White House has said

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Speaker 3: that if countries want to call after the deadline, we'll

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Speaker 3: still enter negotiations and maybe we'll cut a deal after

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Speaker 3: the fact based on your experience in dealing with our

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Speaker 3: trade partners. Would they take Donald Trump up on that

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Speaker 3: offer after all these letters go out in the next

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Speaker 3: twenty four hours.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think every country will, particularly I mean the

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Speaker 8: level of tariffs that the President is imposing. Frankly, we

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Speaker 8: don't relate to the harm that he says he's trying

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Speaker 8: to cure. And you've had enough economists speak to that,

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Speaker 8: and sadly, many of these smaller economies ironically have a

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Speaker 8: trade surplus with this, and yet they're still being hid

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Speaker 8: with tariffs on mostly sending US goods and trinkets for

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Speaker 8: which there's just not that big of a market going

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Speaker 8: the other way. So I think all of us expect

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Speaker 8: that if these countries can somehow get into the queue,

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Speaker 8: if their president can call and in our president's view

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Speaker 8: ben de knee or say the magic words, then relief

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Speaker 8: will be coming. But the most powerful factor in this, frankly,

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Speaker 8: has been the market. Every time the President has threatened

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Speaker 8: to impose you know, double digit tariffs above twenty percent,

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Speaker 8: the markets have spoken, and spoken quite quite quickly, and

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Speaker 8: the President is backed off, similar to when he made

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Speaker 8: the threat to fire the head of the Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Chairman Powell, at least for now safe in his

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Speaker 2: job despite not cutting interest rates yesterday. Ambassador will see

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Speaker 2: if that changes just quickly as we look ahead to

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Speaker 2: another deadline. August first is one thing. August twelfth is another.

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Speaker 2: That's when the current trade truce between the US and

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Speaker 2: China is set to expire. In President Trump to this

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Speaker 2: point has not yet signed off on an extension. Are

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Speaker 2: you concerned at all that we may actually see a

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Speaker 2: rebound to the sky high level of terrorifts we experienced

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Speaker 2: between the two largest economies earlier this year.

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Speaker 8: You know, I'm concerned, but I will tell you I am.

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Speaker 8: I think I and others are relieved that at least

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Speaker 8: the language we're hearing both out of the White House,

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Speaker 8: out of the US Trade rep and the Secretary of

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Speaker 8: Commerce's office seems like an attempt by both countries to

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Speaker 8: really sort of de escalate the tension and get to

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Speaker 8: a level of negotia ciation that's going to be more

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Speaker 8: beneficial to both countries. Now. To be sure, we are

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Speaker 8: in a very different place with China, and not because

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Speaker 8: of Trump administration, but because of President Chief and his

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Speaker 8: nationalist policies. But both countries have realized there's a lot

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Speaker 8: more pain to be inflicted on one another than if

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Speaker 8: we can find some way to at least make sure

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Speaker 8: that American industries have access to those critical minerals that

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Speaker 8: we want while protecting our basic interests. And as you

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Speaker 8: noted in your earlier comments, perhaps give the US giving

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Speaker 8: a little bit on some of the export controls.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for bringing us inside the process, Ron Kirk, former

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Speaker 3: US Trade representative in the Obama administration. It's great to

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Speaker 3: have you with us sort of similar panel. Next only

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Speaker 3: here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 1: Joined listening to the Blue Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: It's going to be something.

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Speaker 3: When Figma starts trading, Are you following this fig Plug

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Speaker 3: it into your terminal Figma IPO today, these numbers just

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Speaker 3: Producer James keeps putting these prices in front of me.

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Speaker 3: It just keeps getting bigger. Figma shares now indicated to

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Speaker 3: open one hundred and five to one hundred and ten

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Speaker 3: dollars each. Remember the IPO price is thirty three. It's

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Speaker 3: a fascinating companies digital design firm that's got everybody excited

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Speaker 3: at the New York Stock Exchange. When it starts trading,

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Speaker 3: you know you'll hear about it right here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 4: This is something.

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Speaker 3: That we're going to talk about now that has the

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Speaker 3: President very upset. It has nothing to do with triffs.

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Speaker 4: Or trade.

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Speaker 3: Why would one Republican, the President asks on truth Social

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Speaker 3: Senator Josh Holly from the Great State of Missouri, join

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Speaker 3: with all of the Democrats to block a review sponsored

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Speaker 3: by Senator Rick Scott and with the support of almost

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Speaker 3: all other Republicans of Nancy Pelosi's stock trading over the

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Speaker 3: last twenty five years. Yet this is an effort to

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Speaker 3: stop insider trading in Congress, and apparently Josh Holly is

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Speaker 3: on board. President says the information was inappropriately released just

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Speaker 3: minutes before the vote. Very much like sabotage. The Democrats,

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Speaker 3: because of our tremendous achievements and success, have been trying

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Speaker 3: to target me for a long period of time, and

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Speaker 3: they're using Josh Holly, who I got elected twice as

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Speaker 3: a pawn to help them. He refers to Josh Holly

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Speaker 3: as a second tier senator in this effort to combat

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Speaker 3: insider trading on Capitol Hill. He's referring to Nancy Pelosi

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Speaker 3: because she has frequently been the poster child for this

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Speaker 3: kind of stuff. That's where we start with our political

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Speaker 3: panels today. Genie Shanzano is with US Bloomberg Politics contributor,

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Speaker 3: Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of

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Speaker 3: the Presidency in Congress. Of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor, as

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Speaker 3: I may have mentioned, joined today by John Seaton. It's

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Speaker 3: great to have John back, Republican strategist, founder CEO of

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Speaker 3: Echo Canyon Consulting. And so here we go, Genie. We've

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Speaker 3: talked about these stock bands before. A lawmaker stock trading

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Speaker 3: ban is now advancing in the Senate because of one Republican,

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Speaker 3: Josh Holly. President says he is a second rate senator

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Speaker 3: as a result. And we've got news now that Hawlly

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Speaker 3: had a good chat with Donald Trump over this. But

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Speaker 3: the stock trading bill is something that people feel pretty

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Speaker 3: passionate about. We've done a lot of stories on it

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Speaker 3: around here, Genie, But this kind of activity continues when

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Speaker 3: a lawmaker gets inside information via committee or something that

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Speaker 3: was said in the writing of a bill, then they

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Speaker 3: sell all the shares before the thing goes down or

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Speaker 3: vice versa.

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Speaker 4: Will this ever stop? Is there a way to control

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Speaker 4: this by way of legislation?

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Speaker 5: You know, I was chuckling when you were reading Donald

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Speaker 5: Trump's truth because number one again, just like he did

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Speaker 5: with Chuck Grassley the other day, he is taken to

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Speaker 5: saying he got these people elected. So he got Josh

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Speaker 5: Hally elected twice, he got Chuck Grassley elected. But the

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Speaker 5: other part of it is when he's questioning why Josh

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Speaker 5: Hawley is doing this, well, I think he may forget that.

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Speaker 5: Just this spring, he himself said if a bill like

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Speaker 5: this crosses his desk, he will sign it. And as

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Speaker 5: opposed to saying I disagree with this portion, or let's

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Speaker 5: work on it, let's rewrite it. The President is all

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Speaker 5: out attacking Josh Hawley, and of course he is on

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Speaker 5: the wrong side of public opinion on this. About eight

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Speaker 5: to nine out of ten Americans say that members of

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Speaker 5: Congress should not be trading on the stock market because

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Speaker 5: of the work they do on in Congress where they

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Speaker 5: get information that can help them, and so this is

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Speaker 5: a very popular bill. But you know, I think the

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Speaker 5: President is a bit concerned about the impact on himself,

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Speaker 5: even though now he's carved out of it so he

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Speaker 5: doesn't have to worry.

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Speaker 3: It's actually called the Pelosi Act, John Seton. This is

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Speaker 3: the Homeland Security Governmental Affairs Committee that was voting on this.

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Speaker 3: It cleared eight to seven. Would ban lawmakers and their

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Speaker 3: spouses from actively holding stocks imagine the blind trust or

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Speaker 3: whatever you put all your money into ETFs. Is this

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Speaker 3: a good idea, John, And is it something that could

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Speaker 3: actually be passed and turned into law?

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Speaker 9: As UNI note, it has tremendous amount of public support.

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Speaker 9: I think people are very concerned that lawmakers are getting

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Speaker 9: information before the general public and then using that information

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Speaker 9: right or wrong, to make decisions as to their stock portfolios.

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Speaker 9: So I do think it has a lot of support.

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Speaker 9: I do think that Josh Holly has been very consistent

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Speaker 9: on this. He is a true populist, and so I

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Speaker 9: wasn't terribly surprised to see him both the way he did.

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Speaker 9: I was a little bit surprised by the President's reaction,

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Speaker 9: But yeah, I think this thing has real legs and

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Speaker 9: would not be surprising to me if it made a

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Speaker 9: tway to the President's desk.

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Speaker 3: The bill apparently was originally dubbed the Pelosi Act. Now

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Speaker 3: it's the Honest Act, Is that right? Ceci, she got

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Speaker 3: a name change on it. Rick Scott, the Republican from Florida,

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Speaker 3: Jeanie asks, anybody want to be poor?

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Speaker 4: I don't. Does it come down to that. Rick Scott

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Speaker 4: already has a lot of money, doesn't he?

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Speaker 5: He does, as do most members of the Senate.

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Speaker 9: Not all.

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Speaker 5: But this is why we call it the Billionaire's Club.

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Speaker 5: And you know, you go back to I think it's

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Speaker 5: a twenty twenty two New York Times study which found

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Speaker 5: Democrats and Republicans, because of course this is bipartisan, about

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Speaker 5: twenty percent or a fifth we're buying and trading stocks

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Speaker 5: in this study that benefited and they benefited from their

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Speaker 5: work in Congress. And you know, as John just said,

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Speaker 5: and everybody would agree, most Americans think that in a

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Speaker 5: representative democracy, you have left people send them to Congress,

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Speaker 5: not to enrich themselves by buying in trading stocks based

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Speaker 5: on information they've gotten, but doing the work of the people.

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Speaker 5: And so I do think there are concerns. By the way,

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Speaker 5: about this bill. I am particularly concerned about the impact

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Speaker 5: on spouse's partners, children, the like. You know, I think

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Speaker 5: there are discussions to be had, but I also agree

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Speaker 5: that we need to move forward on something that makes

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Speaker 5: sense so that we do have rules in this regard

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Speaker 5: in the Congress, but they do need to be strengthened

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Speaker 5: so that the American public has more confidence in the

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Speaker 5: people that they are sending to Washington, d c. Which

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Speaker 5: is at an all time low as you know today.

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Speaker 4: Joe, John, what do you make of the modification for

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Speaker 4: President Trump? Genie mentioned this.

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Speaker 3: It was changed to carve out President Trump here because

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Speaker 3: he's term limited and cannot seek another term. This would

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Speaker 3: be triggered by you'd have to divest within ninety days

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Speaker 3: of your intention to seek another term.

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Speaker 4: That's how this would work.

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Speaker 3: Rand Paul says the substitute would protect Donald Trump. He's

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Speaker 3: actively investing in a lot of things right now, John,

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Speaker 3: including crypto. Why not keep the president covered by this?

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Speaker 9: You know, I think Republicans rightly have a lot of

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Speaker 9: concern that there has been kind of a weaponization against

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Speaker 9: this particular president and his family. It's important that this

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Speaker 9: bill moved forward, and I think the Republicans want to

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Speaker 9: make sure that it's not used kind of as yet

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Speaker 9: another cudgel against President Trump. So writing it in such

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Speaker 9: a way that he is term limited out, it can't

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Speaker 9: retroactively impact him or his family. But again, do the

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Speaker 9: right thing and do what the American people really do want,

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Speaker 9: which is some accountability from lawmakers and make sure that

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Speaker 9: they're not enriching themselves due to the jobs they have

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Speaker 9: in the Congress.

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Speaker 3: I'm kind of surprised we don't hear more outcry from

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Speaker 3: voters on this. I mean, there have been sixty minutes pieces,

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Speaker 3: there's been endless coverage on Bloomberg about this. But senators,

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Speaker 3: Republican senators, with the exception of Josh Holly, are in

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Speaker 3: many cases just frozen in the headlights here. Genie Bernie

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Speaker 3: Moreno Republican from Ohio freshman, of course, a co sponsor

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Speaker 3: of the original Pelosi Act, voted present on the substitute amendment,

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Speaker 3: arguing that senators should not have been forced to swallow

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Speaker 3: last minute changes. Quote, if you had a gun to

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Speaker 3: my head, I could not tell you what I am

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Speaker 3: about to vote for.

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Speaker 4: How could this be, Genie?

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Speaker 7: It is hard to believe.

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Speaker 5: I think it is reflective of the fact a very

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Speaker 5: simple rule in Washington that when it is called the

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Speaker 5: Pelosiac and it is Republicans aiming the gun at Democrats,

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Speaker 5: they are for it. And when it switches and it's

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Speaker 5: looked like it's aimed at the president or other Republicans,

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Speaker 5: you find Democrats on board and Republicans fall off. And

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Speaker 5: this is what is so troubling to the American public

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Speaker 5: about this, and that's why on this issue of the

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Speaker 5: carve out for Donald Trump, I do think that the

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Speaker 5: carve out makes sense. I also think he has been

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Speaker 5: skirting ethics, if not running up against them, as it

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Speaker 5: pertains to enriching himself and his family in ways that

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Speaker 5: we've never seen before. I think it's unconscionable. But I

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Speaker 5: also think it is such a politically charged issue that

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Speaker 5: if we want to move forward at all with legislation,

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Speaker 5: that carving out the current president and vice president may

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Speaker 5: be the only way to do that, or so I

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Speaker 5: would have thought until last night, when this bill, even

439
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 5: with the carveout, didn't get much Republican support beyond Josh Hawley.

440
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 4: See Donald Trump writing.

441
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,959
Speaker 3: I don't think real Republicans w want to see their president,

442
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 3: who has an unprecedented success targeted because of the whims

443
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 3: of a second tier senator named Josh Holly.

444
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 4: I guess they had a chance to talk it out.

445
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 3: Coming up in our next hour with our panel, Jeannie

446
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 3: and John, we're going to be talking trade a lot

447
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 3: because we're counting down the hours here to the trade

448
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 3: and tariff deadline. August first, Yeah, that's tomorrow, So technically

449
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 3: at midnight the tariffs reciprocal tariffs will take effect.

450
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 4: So here we are on the eve.

451
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 3: You could argue that this is the deadline day because

452
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 3: once the clock strikes twelve, they're in effect. Eleven fifty

453
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 3: nine is technically the deadline. And John, we could get

454
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 3: more deals today, but I'm wondering your thoughts, and we'll

455
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,959
Speaker 3: have a lot more time to explore this in our

456
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 3: second hour here on Balance of Power. Your thoughts on

457
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 3: the way this is playing with voters. Are people paying

458
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,199
Speaker 3: attention to the details of these trade deals that are

459
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 3: coming out in the past couple of days.

460
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 9: I don't think that people are paying a lot of attention.

461
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 9: I think the certainly Republican voters have been hearing this

462
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,680
Speaker 9: president talk about tariff since long before he was president

463
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 9: of the United States, and so I don't think it's

464
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,719
Speaker 9: a huge surprise at least Republican voters. And and honestly,

465
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 9: I think people start paying attention if they see big

466
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 9: changes in the cost of goods and in their in

467
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 9: their overall quality of life. Until then, I think it's

468
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 9: just kind of background noise and they really aren't as

469
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 9: tuned into it as as we are.

470
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 3: Frankly, ninety deals in ninety days was the line, Genie.

471
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 3: We got eight deals in one hundred and twenty days,

472
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 3: how should we be looking at it?

473
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 5: And you know my view, Joe, eight deals with no

474
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 5: details and not really any sign off. I'm not sure

475
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 5: if i'd call them deals, but okay, it's less. But

476
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 5: I'll tell you when people are going to start to notice.

477
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 5: I mean, we heard today that Sharman is going to

478
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 5: increase their prices come the you know, the fall, the

479
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 5: summer perhaps, And those are household goods that people depend on,

480
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 5: from you know, toilet paper. You know, if you see

481
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 5: diapers go up, if you have a children, as you know,

482
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 5: we all know how expensive those are, that's when people

483
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 5: are going to start paying attention to this. If those

484
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 5: prices people follow sharmon and those prices go up, which

485
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 5: if we get huge, you know, tariffs put in place

486
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 5: on all these countries in the next few hours, that

487
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 5: very well could happen.

488
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 4: Don't squeeze the Sharman, John.

489
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 3: The fact is that's owned by Procer and Gamble, which

490
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 3: said this week it would hike prices on a quarter

491
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 3: of its consumer products here in the United States. Is

492
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 3: that the kind of thing that puts fear into Republican lawmakers.

493
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 9: Yeah, Look, I mean I think we saw with the

494
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 9: last administration we probably talked about it on this show,

495
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 9: that they were so slow to kind of react to

496
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 9: and recognize people's concerned with skyrocketing prices that by the

497
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 9: time they tried to do something about it, it was

498
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 9: really too late. So I do think that Republicans in

499
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 9: Congress and in the administration are going to pay very,

500
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 9: very close attention to the cost of those household good

501
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 9: the Genie talked about. And I do think that they'll

502
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 9: really want to keep an eye on it and make

503
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 9: sure that they do everything they can to keep prices low,

504
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 9: because that is something that voters definitely notice and definitely

505
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 9: will impact the way they behave Next November.

506
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 3: I'm a little worried about another We're going to do

507
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 3: this whole panic buying of toilet paper again.

508
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 4: Is that happening? CC?

509
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 3: Do I need to run out to Costco now get

510
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 3: cases of Sharman. Just wait until this fall and the

511
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 3: back to school shopping stories kick in. Jinny Shanzano and

512
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 3: John Seaton, our Democrat and Republicant a great panel today.

513
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 3: Thank you both for the insights.

514
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

515
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

516
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 1: Apple Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

517
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

518
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

519
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 3: Thursday edition of Balance of Power, the Early Side edition,

520
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 3: where we expected a flurry of paper today from the

521
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 3: White House. This is deadlines for reciprocal tariffs. They would

522
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 3: take effect midnight tonight, so eleven fifty nine pm. We'll

523
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 3: call our deadline here. But Kayley, this is not a

524
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 3: florry of paper about tariffs, at least not yet. It's

525
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 3: about pharma. The President just kicked out a pile of

526
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 3: letters to the likes of Johnson and Johnson, Pfizer, Eli,

527
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 3: Lilly Regeneron talking about requirements, and we've heard most, if

528
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 3: not all of this before through executive order in an

529
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 3: effort to lower drug prices. It's a four pronged approach,

530
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 3: and what's news here is he wants binding commitments from

531
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 3: these pharmaceutical companies by the twenty ninth of September. Each

532
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 3: is signed at the bottom in sharpie, and in the

533
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 3: cases where he has relationships with the chief executives, he's

534
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 3: actually crossed it out. In the case of Regeneron, which

535
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 3: is run by Leonard Schliefer, he crossed it out with

536
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 3: sharpie and just wrote len Yeah.

537
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 2: Making these a little bit more personalized. Otherwise each letter

538
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: seems to be a carbon cop of the other. What's

539
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 2: a different address see on the top. But of course

540
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: this is a follow up to his executive order from

541
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 2: earlier this year in May around drug pricing in particular.

542
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 2: We're seeing it have a market reaction as the pharmaceuticals

543
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 2: index within the S and P five hundred is now

544
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 2: right around a session low, down about one and a

545
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: half percent. And will continue to follow those moves, knowing

546
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 2: that healthcare costs and drug costs are just one kind

547
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 2: of costs that this White House has pledged to get

548
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 2: down for the American people. The differences perhaps that we're

549
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 2: not seeing as much concrete action on other elements of

550
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 2: everyday costs at this time, and that was evident arguably

551
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 2: in today's inflation data, the Fed's preferred inflation data actually

552
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: PCE coming in a little bit hot year on year,

553
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 2: and we want to get more on that as we

554
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 2: look at a deadline on higher tariffs of tomorrow, which

555
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 2: could threaten to send inflation higher. As we turned to

556
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 2: Catherine Edwards's economic policy consultant and Bloomberg opinion contributor. So, Catherine,

557
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 2: if we are to believe the White House is going

558
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: to raise tariffs effective at midnight August first, is a

559
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 2: real deadline that these are going to stick for some time.

560
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 2: What's likely to happen to PCE and to inflation? And

561
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 2: does it mean that the Fed probably made a good

562
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 2: move in keeping rate study this week?

563
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 10: I didn't think there was really any question that rates

564
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 10: were going to go down this week. I think the

565
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 10: bigger question is what happens in September. And to your point,

566
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 10: you know, that's a big if if it goes off

567
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 10: as planned, if they stay into a effect if they're.

568
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 11: Not canceled or paused or delayed again.

569
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 10: And in the meantime, we have a lot of court

570
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 10: cases related to the legality of these tariffs that are

571
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 10: still evolving. I don't think that you can plan for

572
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 10: the tariffs in either direction, which is why Powell and

573
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 10: the Fed chose to hold steady even though they saw

574
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 10: signs of concern in both the consumer market and the

575
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 10: labor market. What I worry about is the extent to

576
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 10: which this continued uncertainty at the highest level plagues businesses

577
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 10: and consumers.

578
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 4: So is this a huge I told you so for

579
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 4: J Powell.

580
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 11: I just don't think it's in the man's nature to

581
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 11: say that publicly.

582
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,479
Speaker 10: So I wouldn't want to give him I wouldn't want

583
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 10: to give it to him when I know he wouldn't

584
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 10: say it.

585
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 2: Well, what we did hear him say this week, Catherine,

586
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: is that he thinks the FED is farther away from

587
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: its inflation goals than its labor market goals. He did

588
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 2: not seem to share the same concern around the labor

589
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: market that the dissenters, the likes of Christopher Waller, who

590
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 2: of course would have cut rates at this meeting had

591
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 2: what will we be watching for in the payrolls report

592
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 2: tomorrow to give us a census to whether it's Governor

593
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 2: Waller or Chairman Powell who are proving more pression on

594
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 2: that point.

595
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 10: He's spoken in the past about how the labor market

596
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 10: is not as strong as the unemployment rate would necessarily predict.

597
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 10: That there's problems in which industries are posting job games,

598
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 10: are they really reflecting economic activity or an aging population?

599
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 10: What hiring has looked like to unemployment rate for young workers.

600
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 10: He's brought about all these things before, but I think

601
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 10: the price uncertainty question has to be paramount right now

602
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 10: and has to take priority over the labor market because

603
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 10: those are concern and not red flags, whereas broad tariffs

604
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 10: are absolutely a red flag, and the effect on prices

605
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 10: of broad tariffs is faster than any effect we've seen

606
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 10: on the labor market. So he's got to be basically

607
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 10: ready for the first worst thing that can happen, which

608
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 10: will be tariffs should they go into effect, if they

609
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 10: stay into effect.

610
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, we just got a headline from the White House

611
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 3: Press Secretary is briefing reporters right now in the briefing room.

612
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 3: Catherine and President Trump will sign an executive order today

613
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 3: on trade. We understand it will be on tariffs. So

614
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 3: I guess, with the exception of Mexico, these tariff rates

615
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 3: are in fact going to take effect at midnight tonight.

616
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 3: What will be the window before they show up in

617
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 3: the hard data.

618
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 11: That's very hard to say.

619
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 10: I think what we learned from the first big deadline

620
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 10: in April is that businesses have been doing a lot

621
00:33:56,320 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 10: of maneuvering to anticipate what is happening and protect their business,

622
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 10: their supply chains, and their customers before they take effect,

623
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 10: or assuming that they will. So I don't know how

624
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 10: long it'll take, but I do wonder. You know, at

625
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 10: some point something's got to break for a lot of businesses.

626
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 10: They either have to pass on the prices or they

627
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 10: have to start pulling layoffs because they can't afford it.

628
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 10: And so how long they can wait an uncertainty has

629
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 10: been an open question since we've entered the start of

630
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 10: this administration.

631
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,720
Speaker 11: Another big tariff announcement in the rose Garden.

632
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 10: Another big cardboard with lots of pieces with lots of

633
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 10: numbers next to it, that just could be push a

634
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 10: lot of businesses over the edge, to say, you know,

635
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 10: whatever I've been holding back, I have to do now

636
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 10: that has less to do with the policy itself and

637
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 10: more about how well people can anticipate and protect their businesses.

638
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 4: Catherine, it's great to have you, as always.

639
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 3: Catherine Edwards on the eve of the tariff deadline, economic

640
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 3: policy consultant, find her work on the terminal. She's a

641
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Opinion contributor, and we want to bring in the

642
00:34:56,200 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 3: voice of a lawmaker. Congresswoman Republican Nicole maly Gatak from

643
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 3: New York is with US New York's eleventh district now

644
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 3: that the home district work period is underway. Congresswomen, welcome

645
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 3: back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. There's always a lot

646
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 3: we'd love to talk to you about, but I'd like

647
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 3: to just start here with the conversation that we're having.

648
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 3: We're listening to Caroline Levitt and preparing for these teriff

649
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 3: rates to go into effect. What are you hearing from

650
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 3: business owners in your district when it comes to the

651
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 3: impact of tariffs.

652
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 12: Well, look, both business owners and consumers rightfully have some

653
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 12: concern about what this will mean for them, what this

654
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 12: will mean in terms of cost. If you're a consumer,

655
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 12: what's your bottom line if you're a business, and how

656
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 12: are you going to make sure that it doesn't impact you.

657
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 12: But what I would say is, and I've told the

658
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 12: administration this multiple times, it's my hope what we will

659
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 12: hear from the President is that you will pause some

660
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 12: of these tariffs to continue to pause for the countries

661
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 12: that have been working in good faith. We have many

662
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 12: countries right now that are at the table, they're negotiating

663
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,919
Speaker 12: and good faith. They're looking to lower their barriers of entry,

664
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 12: allow more American products into the country, try to make

665
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:02,240
Speaker 12: a more balanced.

666
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:03,720
Speaker 7: Trade.

667
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 12: And I think that if they are working with us,

668
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,240
Speaker 12: then we should give them a little more time. Obviously,

669
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 12: it is difficult within that ninety day period to make

670
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 12: so many trade deals all at once because each is

671
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 12: very exclusive, specific to that nation and addresses different needs.

672
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 12: But what we have seen from the President is more

673
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 12: fair trade for the American company, for the American worker

674
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 12: as it relates to giving us a better deal right

675
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 12: making sure that our products are not hit with tariffs

676
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 12: when they are imported elsewhere. And we've seen this with

677
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 12: multiple Asian nations. We've seen it with the EU, we've

678
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,879
Speaker 12: seen it UK, and there's still a slew of other

679
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 12: countries out there that we know are at the table negotiating,

680
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 12: and we should not try to put this additional.

681
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 7: Tariff on them if they're acting in good faith.

682
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 2: Well, when we consider the administration is also touting the

683
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 2: revenue that is being brought in by the existing tariffs, Congresswoman,

684
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 2: knowing that that revenue is coming from importers who are

685
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 2: paying that tax when they bring these products in to

686
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 2: the to the United States, is that really a better

687
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 2: deal for them?

688
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 12: Well, it is bringing in significant revenue, and we shouldn't

689
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 12: be turning a blind eye to that.

690
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 7: I mean, look, we're talking.

691
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 12: We're talking of what could be well over a trillion dollars,

692
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 12: trillions of dollars over the next decade that could certainly

693
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 12: help pay down our debt in one respect. The thing

694
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 12: is you want to make sure that it's reasonable so

695
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 12: it's not going to again input impacts those and users

696
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 12: of consumers.

697
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,240
Speaker 7: We really haven't seen those consumer prices increase.

698
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 12: What we have seen, by the way, is trillions of

699
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 12: dollars of private investment coming to the United States, whether

700
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 12: it's from foreign companies or domestic companies, companies that are

701
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 12: looking to expand their facilities.

702
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 7: You mentioned the pharmaceutical industry.

703
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 12: Earlier, automakers, we're seeing that they are investing in the

704
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 12: United States that is creating jobs.

705
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 7: We saw the three percent GDP growth.

706
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 12: I think you'll continue to see that now that we've

707
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 12: also passed the tax legislation that will be pro growth,

708
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:04,839
Speaker 12: pro jobs, that will play a role.

709
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:06,280
Speaker 7: It all needs to be balanced.

710
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 12: That's I think at the end of the day, what

711
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 12: people are looking for some type of balance here, and

712
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 12: tariffs is a small piece of that equation. Is a

713
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 12: strategic tool needs to be used though in a targeted approach,

714
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 12: and really we should be looking for a particular outcome

715
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 12: from the nation that we're dealing with, not just a

716
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:29,319
Speaker 12: across the board slamming every country with tariffs, particularly if

717
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 12: they're working with us at this moment to get a

718
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 12: more fair trade deal.

719
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 3: Well, it's possible we'll see more extensions before this day

720
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 3: is over. After Mexico got one Congress someone We've been

721
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 3: hearing from a lot of your Republican colleagues in the

722
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 3: House and a number of Republican strategists who talk to

723
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 3: us every day here on balance of power, who seem

724
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 3: to think that a government shutdown is a lot more

725
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 3: likely now than it was even a month ago. Following

726
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 3: the passage of the Recisions Package, a lot of Democrats

727
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 3: are saying we're pulling away from the table, Republicans cannot

728
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 3: be trusted. Does that ensure a shutdown at the end

729
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 3: of September.

730
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 12: Well, I think Democrats not wanting to work with us

731
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 12: in a bipartisan manner to fund the government can certainly

732
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 12: lead to a shutdown, particularly when you need seven votes

733
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:18,279
Speaker 12: in the Senate to pass any appropriations bill, and so

734
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 12: it is concerning. I would argue that you know, all

735
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 12: our appropriation bills have passed in a bipartisan manner. It

736
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,360
Speaker 12: is the right thing to do is to avoid a

737
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 12: government shutdown. Make sure and I've been through this now probably.

738
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 7: About five times, we've always averted the shutdown.

739
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 12: So really, if we have a shutdown, it will be

740
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 12: because the Democrats don't want to work with us in

741
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 12: a bipartisan manner, because all these bills will be will

742
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 12: be bipartisan at the end of the day, so they

743
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 12: shouldn't hold their votes. And I would say that, look,

744
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 12: we need to be responsible here, we need to legislate.

745
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 12: The impact of a shutdown is very problematic and we

746
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 12: should really try to avoid that at all costs.

747
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course, considering there may be political consequences as

748
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 2: well as the midterms approach, Congresswomen, and as the midterms approach,

749
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 2: we have a question as to what exactly the map

750
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 2: is going to look like. Knowing that Texas and a

751
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 2: special legislation legislative session right now is actively pursuing redistricting

752
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 2: that could see Republicans net five seats in that state,

753
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 2: your governor in New York, Kathy Hochel, is now threatening

754
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 2: to try to take action of her own. She says,

755
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 2: I won't sit by while Donald Trump and Texas Republicans

756
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:30,840
Speaker 2: try to steal our nation's future. Are we about to

757
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 2: get into a dangerous jerry mandering war? Congresswoman like, I

758
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 2: hope not.

759
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 12: As somebody who is a victim of jerry mandering, I

760
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 12: don't care if it's the Republicans or the Democrats that

761
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,919
Speaker 12: are doing it. It's wrong and it should not be done.

762
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 12: We have to make sure people are electing their representatives,

763
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 12: and to try to alter a map to tilt the

764
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 12: scale is wrong. We had to sue the governor in

765
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 12: twenty twenty two when they try to really tilt the

766
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 12: scale in my case put in very heavily Democrat areas

767
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 12: of Brooklyn. It was the most ludicrous map and because

768
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 12: of my district, the whole state map was thrown out.

769
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 7: And I think the Democrats learned a lesson there.

770
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 12: When we had an independent person draw the map, they

771
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 12: ended up losing two incumbents and then multiple seats in

772
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 12: addition to that. And so what I would simply say is,

773
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 12: whether it's Republicans or Democrats, jerrymandering is wrong. It should

774
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 12: not be done, is corrupt, and we have to make

775
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 12: these maps as fair and balanced and competitive as possible.

776
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 12: And perhaps we need to move toward computer generated maps

777
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 12: or just court independently drawn maps. But I don't support

778
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 12: the jerrymandering, and I could speak about that from first

779
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 12: yet experience.

780
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know this hits close to home for you,

781
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 3: Congress when it sounds like you agree with Democrats in

782
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 3: Texas though that this should not happen.

783
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:57,239
Speaker 12: Look, I agree with anyone who does not want to jerrymander, because,

784
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 12: like I said, it is just not the right thing

785
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 12: to do. And I think that at the end of

786
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 12: the day, we should be making these maps. And by

787
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 12: the way, it shouldn't be made also to protect incumbents,

788
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:09,839
Speaker 12: which is the thing we see here in New York.

789
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 7: These maps, whether they're at the state or federal level.

790
00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 12: Are drawn to protect incumbents, and they're not competitive. My

791
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 12: seat happens to be a competitive seat. It's one of

792
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 12: the only competitive seats. Actually, I think it is the

793
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 12: only competitive seat in the City of New York on

794
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:25,760
Speaker 12: the federal level.

795
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,280
Speaker 7: And that's the way it should be. So the voters

796
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 7: have a say on whether they want me to represent

797
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 7: them for another two years.

798
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 12: Unfortunately, it's not like that throughout the state, and it

799
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 12: shouldn't be an incumbent protection program either.

800
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 2: All right, we appreciate your candor, Congresswoman, and you joining

801
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 2: us as always, Congresswoman Nicole Maley Takis, the Republican representing

802
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 2: New York's eleventh districts.

803
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

804
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm e's during

805
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: on Apple Cocle and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

806
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,600
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807
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

808
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:11,879
Speaker 3: This, of course is the eve of the big deadline day,

809
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 3: and President Trump has already said he is not moving it.

810
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 3: So put your tacos aside for a moment. Tariffs are

811
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,760
Speaker 3: going to take effect eleven fifty nine pm right because

812
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 3: it's well midnight here, so we're calling this the deadline day. Tomorrow,

813
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 3: they will be in effect when you wake up. We're

814
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 3: anticipating a flurry of paper, an avalanche actually of paper,

815
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 3: because you've got the the countries the President has announced

816
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,439
Speaker 3: arrangements with, but then everybody else gets another letter looks

817
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 3: like how this is going to work, and those will

818
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: be going out tonight and into tomorrow.

819
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 4: But we actually have.

820
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:48,359
Speaker 3: News on two important trading partners right here in the hemisphere. Yeah,

821
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 3: you've been asking what about Canada and what about Mexico.

822
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,919
Speaker 3: It's not looking great for Canada. As the President said

823
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 3: just yesterday posting on truth Social Wow exclamation point, Canada

824
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 3: has just announce is backing statehood for Palestine. That will

825
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:04,839
Speaker 3: make it very hard for us to make a trade

826
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 3: deal with them. Oh Canada, three exclamation points. We knew

827
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 3: that things were not going well with Mark Carney. He

828
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,240
Speaker 3: was looking to get a deal done by his own deadline.

829
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 3: That was then extended in Canada. Looks like it's in

830
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 3: nowhere Land at the moment, but keep in mind the

831
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 3: USMCA exceptions. Now we turn to Mexico again, but the

832
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 3: taco aside.

833
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 4: Donald J.

834
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,800
Speaker 3: Trump, I have just concluded a telephone conversation with the

835
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 3: President of Mexico, Claudia Shinbaum, which was very successful in

836
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 3: that more and more we're getting to know and understand

837
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 3: each other. Guess what, everybody, we have an extension we

838
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,760
Speaker 3: agreed to extend for a ninety day period. He writes,

839
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 3: the exact same deal as we had for the last

840
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 3: short period of time, namely that Mexico will continue to

841
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 3: pay a twenty five percent fentanyl tear of twenty five

842
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 3: percent tariff on cars, fifty percent tariff on steel, aluminum

843
00:44:56,640 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 3: and copper, immediately terminating its non tariff trees barrier. So

844
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 3: that might be all we get in terms of actual

845
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 3: specific deals or frameworks with countries. The rest would be letters.

846
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 3: And as the President says, the letter is as good

847
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 3: as a deal. And this is where we start a

848
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 3: conversation with Alex Conan Firehouse Strategies Republican strategist. Alex It's

849
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 3: great to have you back, and I'm pretty sure you

850
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,399
Speaker 3: were sitting here the day after Liberation Day. I feel

851
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 3: like we met right after these first went out, and boy,

852
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:27,880
Speaker 3: there's been a lot of water under the bridge since then.

853
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 4: So here we have deadline day tomorrow.

854
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 3: I know that some of these dates are moving depending

855
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 3: on the country, and we have a lot of questions

856
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 3: about some of these deals. But how are you feeling

857
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 3: about it when you look back the last ninety days?

858
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 3: Was this a success a good strategy?

859
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:41,879
Speaker 13: I remember when I was here about ninety days ago,

860
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 13: and I told you he's going to walk these back.

861
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 13: The tariffs that he announced on Liberation Day would have

862
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 13: crushed the American economy. They would have been bad for consumers,

863
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 13: ultimately bad for Trump's political standing, wildly unpopular around the Hill,

864
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 13: and that we should expect him to walk up back.

865
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 13: And we have seen a steady walk back of those

866
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 13: to the point where he started gett embarrassed, right.

867
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,320
Speaker 4: The so called taco trade.

868
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:07,399
Speaker 13: Every you know, Trump's always caves, and he said enough,

869
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 13: August first is going to be the day when all

870
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 13: these tariffs are going into But it also I think

871
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 13: helped him with his negotiating power to go to the

872
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 13: countries and say, look, you haven't told us one to

873
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 13: cut a deal. Really put a lit a fire under

874
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 13: the trade negotiators. He has announced all sorts of trade

875
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:25,320
Speaker 13: deals now, which is mostly just US racing tariffs, not

876
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 13: as much as he originally said, but still racing tariffs

877
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:30,399
Speaker 13: on some of our biggest trading partners. The devil will

878
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 13: be in the detail on those, right. We have yet

879
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 13: to see the fine print on any of those deals.

880
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 13: I think the market, I think companies are eager importers.

881
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 13: I think I think you know, if I'm a customs agent,

882
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 13: I want to see the details right now. So I think,

883
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 13: you know, it'll be interesting to see the details of

884
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:48,319
Speaker 13: those which they'll have to produce very quickly, and will

885
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 13: also be interested to see if these hold or if

886
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 13: we see more walkbacks in the future with some of

887
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 13: our big trading partners. You know, the tariffs that he's

888
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 13: talking about on Canada, that's really going to hurt the

889
00:46:57,400 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 13: US economy. I mean, the US economy is deeply intertwined

890
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,919
Speaker 13: with Mexico and the Canadian economy. Says why he's done

891
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 13: the delay for the Mexico one. It'll be interesting to

892
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 13: see if the candle won.

893
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 3: Actually, well, it sounds like you see the jury as

894
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:12,560
Speaker 3: still being out. We thought we'd have a deal with India,

895
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 3: that was one of the first countries that came up.

896
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:14,800
Speaker 4: Didn't happen.

897
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 3: You wonder if these threats result in one because they've said, well,

898
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 3: this is a deadline on August first. Anybody can call

899
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 3: a president make a deal at the time they want.

900
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 3: So how much of this will continue to roll into

901
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 3: the fall?

902
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 13: Yeah, Well, and I think one of the issues is

903
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:29,800
Speaker 13: that the we talked about the ninety days ago, and

904
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 13: I think it remains true that the administration still has

905
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 13: not laid out a clear rationale for why we are

906
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 13: embarking all these new tariffs around the world. Some of

907
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,879
Speaker 13: it is, look, we need to crack down on China

908
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,439
Speaker 13: and we need to like really raise tariffs on China.

909
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 13: China actually is getting let off relatively easy so far.

910
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 13: And you have a lot of companies who are in

911
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 13: China who are looking at well, India would be a

912
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 13: good place to move jobs, move that.

913
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 4: Many fright, and now the tariffs in India are even worse.

914
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 4: So I think there's a.

915
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:59,240
Speaker 13: Disconnect with this this about China is about raising revenue,

916
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 13: because sure it's raising some revenue, but not as much,

917
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 13: nearly as much as I promised it. At the same time,

918
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:05,919
Speaker 13: you're seeing it's starting to really drag on GDP, which

919
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 13: ultimately is also going to impact you know, uh, tax return,

920
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 13: tax receipts. Or is this about restoring American jobs because

921
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 13: we haven't seen any evidence of that yet either. So

922
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 13: you know, I think the administration does have some challenges here.

923
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 13: You know, ultimately this is driven by what Trump believes,

924
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 13: which is that tariffs are good. Is the one thing

925
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 13: he's been consistent on for his entire adult life that

926
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 13: he wants more tariffs, and we're going to see and

927
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:31,840
Speaker 13: that's what we're finally seeing. And I think the economic

928
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:35,879
Speaker 13: impact once they are actually in place, it'll be real.

929
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:37,879
Speaker 3: What do you make of the messaging that's coming out

930
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 3: of this White House that it's not inflationary tariffs or

931
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 3: maybe a one time adjustment When we hear from the

932
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 3: likes of Procter and Gamble this week, we're hiking prices

933
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 3: on a quarter of our goods. You're a political practitioner.

934
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 3: At some point this makes its way to the consumer,

935
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,719
Speaker 3: to the voter that may not be consumed or even

936
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 3: interested in any of this talk of tariffs or what

937
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 3: these deals include. At some point though, it lands on

938
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 3: the kitchen table, and that's that's where the political operative

939
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 3: is right.

940
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 13: I mean, look, as Joe Biden found out the hard way,

941
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 13: inflation is the number one killer.

942
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 4: Of a presidency.

943
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 13: And tariffs are inflationary full stop. I mean, tariff's literally

944
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:14,279
Speaker 13: arising the prices of imported goods and you can make

945
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 13: them in the US, but they're going to be more

946
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,840
Speaker 13: expensive in the US. And as for the consumer, that

947
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 13: means ultimately they're going to be paying more for many

948
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:23,879
Speaker 13: of the goods and services. Look, if you like avocados,

949
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 13: and these tariffs going into effecting Mexico, the price of

950
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 13: avocados are going up, the price of g guacamoala's are

951
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 13: going up, and so it like the consumers will ultimately

952
00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:37,279
Speaker 13: see that and they will hold the White House accountable.

953
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 13: And you know, look, if inflation is not going up,

954
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:42,359
Speaker 13: that's because demand's going down. And that's what we saw

955
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:44,799
Speaker 13: in the in the inflation numbers that came out this morning,

956
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 13: where inflation hadn't was up but not as much as

957
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 13: we feared, in part because demand is falling. So look,

958
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 13: either consumers are buying less, which is not great for

959
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:57,320
Speaker 13: the economy or for consumers, or inflation is going to

960
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,360
Speaker 13: go up, you know, either as a political loser for

961
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 13: Trump in.

962
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:01,399
Speaker 4: The long run.

963
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 13: Now, look, there's going to be a lag and and

964
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:06,319
Speaker 13: you know, last time I was here in ninety days ago,

965
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 13: I was like, look, Trump is really putting threatening Christmas. Well,

966
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 13: a lot of the stuff that people are going to

967
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 13: be buying for Christmas has already been imported, So you know,

968
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 13: a lot of this won't show up until twenty twenty six.

969
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 13: Unfortunately for Trump and the Republicans, there happens to be

970
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 13: a pretty big election in twenty twenty six.

971
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:22,399
Speaker 4: Well, that's very true.

972
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:28,239
Speaker 3: The timeline here could be very difficult for Republicans. Knowing

973
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 3: of course that you can't have a taco without avocado.

974
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 3: You mentioned guacamulla. You reach for this, Alex Conant on

975
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 3: what producer James reminds us is National Avocado Day. How

976
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:43,080
Speaker 3: does this happen July thirty. First, the avocado, as I read,

977
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 3: is a food without rival among the fruits, the veritable

978
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 3: fruit of paradise that could come back to bite Donald Trump.

979
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 4: I was born in nineteen eighty.

980
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:54,800
Speaker 13: When I grew up, we did not have avocados like

981
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 13: I don't. I mean, when I was a teenager, I

982
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 13: had never had guacamole. Now I'm from Minnesota, so like

983
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:00,799
Speaker 13: you know, I don't have a whole lot of Mexican

984
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 13: food member ort Minnesota. But I swear that this is

985
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 13: a The fact that Americans enjoy avocados and like the

986
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 13: mas quantities that we do is because of NAFTA.

987
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 4: How about that it's because.

988
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 13: Of NAFTA And Americans aren't going to stop buying avocados,

989
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 13: but they might start paying a lot more for them,

990
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 13: and you know what, they're not going to like that.

991
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 3: That's wild. And boy, isn't that the truth. I never

992
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:24,320
Speaker 3: saw a taco when I was growing up in northeastern

993
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 3: can I you wouldn't even know what that was.

994
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 4: A bagel was exotic.

995
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 3: So bring this down to the congressional level, because you've

996
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 3: got lawmakers who are on recess right now and they've

997
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:38,439
Speaker 3: got to carry all this water uncertainty about tariffs. Maybe

998
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 3: there's some support for tariffs if you're talking to steel workers.

999
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:44,360
Speaker 3: It depends on what your district is. But you know,

1000
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 3: particularly these states along the Canadian border, this is a

1001
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 3: real issue. People are talking about it all the time.

1002
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 3: You add Jeffrey Epstein, you add some of the other

1003
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 3: issues that have been coming out of Washington lately. What

1004
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,279
Speaker 3: do you tell a Republican lawmaker trying to have a

1005
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 3: town hall.

1006
00:51:56,880 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 13: Well, look, first off, like it's not all doom and

1007
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 13: gloom out there. I mean, the president has had I

1008
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 13: would argue, wildly successful opening to the first six months

1009
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 13: of his presidency. You look at his successes in the Mideast,

1010
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 13: we Sivia Iran. You look at the tax bill that

1011
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 13: they just passed, some of the regulatory efforts that he's got,

1012
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 13: which I think are very popular. I think the tax bill,

1013
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 13: I know Democrats are very excited about because it's poles poorly,

1014
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:27,440
Speaker 13: but I think once Americans start recognizing some of the

1015
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 13: benefits from it, Look, no taxes on tips, no taxes

1016
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 13: on Social Security, those are going to be election winners.

1017
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:35,280
Speaker 13: And a lot of this stuff that dominate the headlines,

1018
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 13: the cuts in healthcare that I think will ultimately not

1019
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 13: be popular, A lot of that doesn't come into effect

1020
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 13: for quite a while, you know, most of it not

1021
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 13: until after the twenty twenty six mid term. So if

1022
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:47,280
Speaker 13: I'm a Congression Republican, I'm back right now I'm pointing

1023
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 13: at Look. GDP is high, it's growing, you know where

1024
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 13: the GDP growth is fine, Inflation is low, unemployment is low.

1025
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:57,839
Speaker 13: You know, the world seems safer now than it seems

1026
00:52:57,880 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 13: nine months ago.

1027
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 4: That is all you can You can craft an elevator

1028
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:02,239
Speaker 4: pitch that. Yeah.

1029
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 13: And by the way, you don't have to pay tax

1030
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 13: on your tips this year, Like this is all pretty

1031
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 13: good stuff. So yeah, I think the Republicans are in

1032
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:10,880
Speaker 13: good shape right as we sit right now. I just

1033
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 13: I do think the tariffs add a lot of uncertainty

1034
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 13: into the economy. Uh and how you know how the

1035
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 13: economy looks a year from now, It's gonna be different

1036
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 13: than it is now. And you know there are some

1037
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:22,320
Speaker 13: clear clearly some headwinds.

1038
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 4: If you look at the data, I've got about a

1039
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 4: minute left, you run an odds for a shutdown. Yeah,

1040
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 4: it doesn't look good.

1041
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 13: I mean, look, here's the issue. You need Democrats to out. Yeah,

1042
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:35,319
Speaker 13: you need Democrats to to you know, to to keep

1043
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 13: the government open. And the Democrats have you know, their

1044
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:41,399
Speaker 13: base really wants them to fight. You know, their base

1045
00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:44,359
Speaker 13: was furious when they did the cr earlier this year.

1046
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 4: To keep the lights on recisions was the real sin though, right, Yeah, one, they.

1047
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 13: Don't like the I mean, I think they don't like

1048
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 13: the recessions. It was nine billion dollars like, but I

1049
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:55,080
Speaker 13: think the I think the larger is larger issue is

1050
00:53:55,120 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 13: that they are feeling immense amounts of pressure from their

1051
00:53:57,239 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 13: base to not cooperate with Republicans. That so, I do

1052
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 13: think it's gonna be cheld. There's gonna be a big

1053
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:02,399
Speaker 13: fight this fall.

1054
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 4: It's gonna hap to wait August.

1055
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 3: If I don't see you before, then let's get back

1056
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 3: together when Lawmaker's return and see where we are. Let's

1057
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 3: always a great pressure to spend time with Alex Conant

1058
00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 3: Firehouse Strategies. Happy Avocado Day. Thanks for listening to the

1059
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 3: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you

1060
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 3: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

1061
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,400
Speaker 3: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

1062
00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:30,279
Speaker 3: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.