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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the podcast presented by BET.

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Speaker 2: Three sixty five. We are part of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chaddelman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today is our week eleven, Thursday NFL episode. This is

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Speaker 1: the episode where we will get feedback from the wise

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Speaker 1: guys who listen to the show, make our survivor pick

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Speaker 1: and build our money line, Underdog round Robin, where we

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Speaker 1: give out our Foxhole bet and our Big Balls bet

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Speaker 1: of the week, and where we narrow down our picks

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Speaker 1: for the free to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest because, as our old

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Speaker 1: pal Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of

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Speaker 1: money out there.

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Speaker 3: Because there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,

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Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website favorite

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Speaker 1: It's dot Actionnetwork dot com. When we lock them in

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Speaker 1: before kickoff on Sunday. If you prefer using the award

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Speaker 1: winning Action app, you can track all the bets. Simon

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Speaker 1: and I lock in by following two accounts, the Phase

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Speaker 1: Five's and The Favorites Podcast. Let's bring in my co host,

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Speaker 1: My companion, Michael padre My BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter

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Speaker 1: Hidos So I'm.

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Speaker 3: In Hello, hot Chab.

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Speaker 1: I want to get to all of it because things

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Speaker 1: are crazy right now. First, let me remind people the

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Speaker 1: sharp calls, we do.

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Speaker 2: Have a big announcement. The Favorites is going live.

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Speaker 1: We're doing it live on December third, that is a

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Speaker 1: Sunday live from New Jersey at The Shepherd and the

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Speaker 1: Knucklehead in beautiful Hoboken, New Jersey. Doors open at three

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Speaker 1: forty five for the four pm NFL games. We'll be

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Speaker 1: hanging out, me and Simon with our listeners, having in

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Speaker 1: a blast, and then recording our Sunday recap episode live

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Speaker 1: and in person right before Sunday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: You must RSVP.

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Speaker 1: There'll be prize, drinks, warm embraces from me and Simon,

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Speaker 1: so much more. You can see the link to RSVP

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Speaker 1: in the description of the So it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a blast. December third week eleven kickoff is coming up.

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Speaker 1: Opportunities all over the board. I know Simon doesn't like

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Speaker 1: it when I say, let's not dilly dally, but it

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Speaker 1: is time for Shark.

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Speaker 3: Hello, who's there. I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range.

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Speaker 2: Somebody's saying, maybe what you do.

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Speaker 3: Man, this week is brutal. I feel like it's another

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Speaker 3: week of like I thought everyone would be on the

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Speaker 3: same side, and I'll start with the games. I got

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Speaker 3: pushedback on. I got some pushback on I like Washington.

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Speaker 3: I got some pros that they like the Giants. I'm

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Speaker 3: not seeing it like I think their pushback is like, well,

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Speaker 3: look how they played earlier in the season. They played

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Speaker 3: a really tough, close game. I feel like these are

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Speaker 3: two different teams at this point right on. One team

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Speaker 3: has been going one way, the other teams going another way,

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Speaker 3: and the confidence of both these teams are different. So

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Speaker 3: I am shocked that they like this number and they

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Speaker 3: bet it down as well, Like maybe they only liked

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Speaker 3: it at ten and now they don't like it. Now

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Speaker 3: that's moved off and it's down day and a half

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Speaker 3: for a lot of books. But this is interesting because

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Speaker 3: I really didn't think anyone was gonna be on the Giants,

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Speaker 3: and a shocking amount of guys I've talked to like

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Speaker 3: the Giants. Same goes for the Houston Texans. You know,

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Speaker 3: I like Arizona. I like thereson a number. I still

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Speaker 3: like it. Talked to whole bunch of guys. They like Houston,

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Speaker 3: they liked the number. They they were happy it was

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Speaker 3: coming down, and they hit it again and now it's

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Speaker 3: going back up at a couple of books. I'm surprised

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Speaker 3: by it. I am if I said to them, it

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Speaker 3: feels like they're buying high in Houston. Their argument is

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Speaker 3: against Kyler and this Arizona team coming off a win,

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Speaker 3: and I think they're just viewing it wrong. So that's

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Speaker 3: another one we're definitely gonna dive into more. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: for for agreeance, it's been it was an easy week.

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Speaker 3: Me and Chad talked, thought we had a lot of

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Speaker 3: picks we liked. The boys are on the same thing

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Speaker 3: like the guys they like Denver. You know, no shock there.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna break that one down even more. But you've

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Speaker 3: seen that number move now, so I think I got

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Speaker 3: down to one and a half. We talked about it

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Speaker 3: at two one and a half. Now almost every book

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Speaker 3: is two and a half sou.

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Speaker 2: And head into three.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so not nut shocking. That's pros versus shows. The

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Speaker 3: public is going to be on. The Vikings are a

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Speaker 3: fun story. Yeah, I can't. I can't. I can't knock

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Speaker 3: them forward. Even if we lose that bet, it's still

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Speaker 3: when that me and Chad have to make. And now

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Speaker 3: it's giving me more confident than making one over five

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Speaker 3: putting Denver in there, So that's definitely game we're gonna

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Speaker 3: go over. Yeah, the Pros love Carolina Panthers. Another game

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Speaker 3: we need to break down more. You know it's just

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Speaker 3: another game that it's gonna be all public money on

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys and it's only gonna be professional money on

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Speaker 3: the Panthers. Like that game really sticks out. I can't

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Speaker 3: even bring it up, but I mean it. I'm still

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Speaker 3: gonna bet it. I'll still be on the Eagles, but

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Speaker 3: I don't think I'll be one of me and Chad's five.

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Speaker 3: Gotten a lot of pushback on it, a lot of

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Speaker 3: a lot of the pros loving the Chiefs, and I

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Speaker 3: think it's like the numbers even gave us right. They

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Speaker 3: love those trend numbers. They love the Andy Reid numbers

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Speaker 3: after a bye. They love Andy Reid on extended rest.

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Speaker 3: They love my homes on three, which they were betting

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Speaker 3: for four days and you could still get to and

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Speaker 3: a half if you want. I just I mean again,

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Speaker 3: we'll break it down. I just there's just something about

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Speaker 3: this game. The fact that this was Jalen Hurts's lock screen,

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Speaker 3: was that confetti from that Super Bowl all off season,

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Speaker 3: and I just think it's the human element of the Eagles.

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Speaker 3: Been looking and thinking about this game all off season,

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Speaker 3: and man, it's shocking that guys are like putting, you know,

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Speaker 3: a decent amount of money into this Chiefs team. I

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Speaker 3: just feel like this is a bad spot for them.

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Speaker 3: So I'm pretty interesting to hear all the professionals on

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Speaker 3: that one. And yeah, for the last one before we

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Speaker 3: break down all these games, I'm hoping he took the

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Speaker 3: ten on the Bears. The pros loved it. They've come in,

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Speaker 3: they've betted down now to seven and a half despite

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Speaker 3: all the money, all the tickets, all the bets are

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Speaker 3: coming in on the lines, and you've seen that number

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Speaker 3: now drop from ten to seven and a half. Might

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Speaker 3: keep dropping, like I would grab it, even if you're

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Speaker 3: just you're still like you're still a little scared, and

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Speaker 3: you're like, I don't know if I want to bet

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Speaker 3: against this Lions team. Come on, guys, the numbers dictating

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Speaker 3: if you check, give you all the numbers about these

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Speaker 3: divisional dogs, and the professionals like it. Now, you're not

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Speaker 3: gonna be get that as good as a number as

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Speaker 3: the professionals. And that stinks, But that's the way it goes, right.

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Speaker 3: I Mean, we're me and chatter in the same boat.

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Speaker 3: We're not gonna have that good number in our contest.

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Speaker 3: That that number is gone. But I still think seven

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Speaker 3: and a half still still showing value, so not too

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Speaker 3: shocking here. The boys love that one. It's come down

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Speaker 3: now one more big favorite. I will say, I love Miami.

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Speaker 3: It's there's some pros on it, but it's not unanimous, right,

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Speaker 3: It's not everyone's just piling on this big favorite. And

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Speaker 3: I thought it would be between all the professionals, but

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Speaker 3: talk to a couple guys who like it. Whether it's

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Speaker 3: been a couple people have no opinion on that Raiders game.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, that's definitely an interesting game. We've seen that

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Speaker 3: Miami number move from eleven and a half on Tuesday

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Speaker 3: up to thirteen and a half now on Thursday. So

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Speaker 3: definitely a lot of conversations this week about these big favorites.

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Speaker 1: Fascinating, fascinating, fascinating. This is the science of betting right now,

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Speaker 1: because so much of what you just said in your

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Speaker 1: breakdown of the sharp calls are the notes that I

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Speaker 1: put into our script for each game, down to which

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Speaker 1: we're going to put in our five do we still

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Speaker 1: like a big number that moved? And also like we'll

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Speaker 1: dive into all of it. It's a crazy interesting week.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, catch every episode of the Favorites live

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Speaker 1: on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to

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Speaker 1: give us a like. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.

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Speaker 1: Let's start narrowing down our games. We got to get

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Speaker 1: to the foxhol we got to get to Survivor, we

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Speaker 1: got to get to the big Balls bet of the week.

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Speaker 1: Some so much movement since we spoke on Tuesday, including

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Speaker 1: with so many of the games that we liked. So

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna review the ones that we talked about the most.

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Speaker 2: I expect that.

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Speaker 1: Our menu of games that we talked about on Tuesday

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Speaker 1: and loved is going to expand because the movement has

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Speaker 1: been so aggressive. The first game up it's aligned with

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Speaker 1: this question. Mitchell pulled some of the data from the

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Speaker 1: week eleven contest entry so far, can you guess the

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Speaker 1: most picked team so far?

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Speaker 3: I would hope it's our our loyal listeners took Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 3: but I'm not sure Miami. So they listened.

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Speaker 2: By the way, it's our loyal listeners.

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Speaker 1: They listened to you, clearly they listened to me. It's

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Speaker 1: more than two times the next closest pick. So let's

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Speaker 1: talk about Miami for a second. Because we loved this

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Speaker 1: game on Tuesday and it's.

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Speaker 3: Our most public bet of the week, probably right.

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Speaker 1: We loved it on Tuesdays eleven and a half or twelve.

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Speaker 1: It was the rare double digit favorite that we were

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Speaker 1: willing to bet, willing to take. It went up to twelve,

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Speaker 1: it went up to twelve and a half. You were like,

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Speaker 1: when he gets at thirteen, you got to stop. Now

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Speaker 1: it's at thirteen and a half, so it's a tough one.

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Speaker 3: I don't think in the.

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Speaker 1: Contest at thirteen and a half, we're going to want

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Speaker 1: this one.

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Speaker 3: I know. And that's what stinks. It's moved so much,

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Speaker 3: but I just said it, it's like professional money came in.

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Speaker 3: I kind of thought they were going through just because

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Speaker 3: I love the number so much. I'm not the biggest,

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Speaker 3: big favorite better, but there's just certain teams on certain

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Speaker 3: seasons that I just like riding as big favorites, and

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Speaker 3: Miami's that team where it's like they got the horsepower,

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Speaker 3: like they got the dogs on the outside to get

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Speaker 3: those kind of points, and defensively they got the guys

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Speaker 3: to get the stops. Like big deal Ramsey coming back.

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Speaker 3: I know it's gonna take them a mint to get

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Speaker 3: back into form, but we talk all the time. When

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Speaker 3: you have a cornerback that can shut down half the field,

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Speaker 3: it can totally can change a whole defense. It really

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Speaker 3: is such a big deal getting that number one shut

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Speaker 3: down corner. So yeah, it's it's a nice spot for Miami.

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Speaker 3: We talked Miami at home to at home tends to

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Speaker 3: perform well in these spots. Thirteen and a half is

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Speaker 3: a big number, But I'm gonna do my best not

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Speaker 3: to let it scare it off and join the fancier

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Speaker 3: on this one. I just an O'Connell might be able

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Speaker 3: to put up some points and maybe we'll be able

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Speaker 3: to run the ball and get the fourteen year twenty one.

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Speaker 3: But I could see Miami getting way past that. Right.

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Speaker 3: It just feels like this kind of game they could

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Speaker 3: explode in where you're facing against a Raiders team that

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Speaker 3: they would just beat up on two of the worst

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks in all football with their interim head coach. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: great story from the Raiders. They got really lucky last week, right,

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Speaker 3: We already talked about the Jets had a touchdown taking

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Speaker 3: off the board that would have changed the whole outlook

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Speaker 3: of that game. So nice to see the professionals and

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Speaker 3: the public aren't buying that the Raiders, you know, lucky

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Speaker 3: wins here. And yeah, the fact that this number now

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Speaker 3: has moved scares me a little. But here's a nice

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Speaker 3: stat from Evan Tua eight no straight up six and

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Speaker 3: two ats of a favor of seven or more so

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Speaker 3: to has performed well is a big favorite. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: I just I'm trying to think of ways this could

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Speaker 3: go wrong and we'd have to have some bad turnover,

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Speaker 3: luck and everything like that, but these are things you

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Speaker 3: can predict. So yeah, value wise, I have this number

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Speaker 3: of fourteen, So yes, we're only half a point of value.

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Speaker 3: Nothing crazy like this wouldn't be one of my bigger

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Speaker 3: bets at this number, just because the value has shifted

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Speaker 3: so much, but it's still pun in contest. If we're

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Speaker 3: having a tough time getting our fifth one in there,

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't hate putting this one in. Like of all

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Speaker 3: the big favorites, this is my favorite one this week.

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Speaker 1: But look, I keep thinking about that Carolina game that

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Speaker 1: Miami had where they were down fourteen to nothing in

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Speaker 1: the first quarter and by the the first half they

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Speaker 1: were thirty five to fourteen or something like that, and

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Speaker 1: betting on Miami neck game Yeah, they just run over

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Speaker 1: these teams. They run over these teams, and they're playing

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Speaker 1: at home. This Raiders team is not good. People should

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Speaker 1: not be buying into anything that's happened in the past two games.

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Speaker 1: They're just they're a terrible team experiencing some huge momentum

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Speaker 1: against really bad teams. Like as I talk about it,

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Speaker 1: I feel more and more confident about this Miami game.

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Speaker 3: It's hard not to.

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Speaker 4: Shic cargo, hic cago, that Toddle in town Chicago, Chicago,

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Speaker 4: I will show you around.

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Speaker 3: I love it.

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Speaker 1: On Sunday night, I said to you, I kind of

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Speaker 1: like the Bears at a big number. I wasn't joking

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Speaker 1: about it. You were kind of with me. By Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: we were both all in on the Bears at plus ten.

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Speaker 1: I debated making it my executive decision game before I

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Speaker 1: decided to make the Steelers my executive decision game. The

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Speaker 1: number is now down to seven and a half. You know,

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Speaker 1: we'll do our YouTube exclusives, and we just recorded yesterday

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Speaker 1: a video for an educational series we're doing on YouTube

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Speaker 1: about terminology that we use here on the podcast, and

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Speaker 1: the term that we talked about was closing line value,

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Speaker 1: which basically means you want to get the best of

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Speaker 1: the number. I talk about it all the time. It's

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Speaker 1: why you got to listen to the Sunday Show because

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Speaker 1: sometimes we're betting early and we know which way the

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Speaker 1: lines are going to go. This is when we felt

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Speaker 1: the line was going to move in our direction. Closingline

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Speaker 1: value matters only when it matters, right that That was

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Speaker 1: sort of your takeaway on this. I'm not afraid of

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Speaker 1: the seven and a half in the contest.

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Speaker 3: I'm not either, but it's not ideal like this. This

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Speaker 3: number at ten made more sense. This is a lot

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Speaker 3: of movement for a guy that doesn't win games, and

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Speaker 3: he's not like he's the greatest covering quarterback either. I

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Speaker 3: mean justin Fields, he's gonna He's added to that list

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Speaker 3: of the all hype guys. Like a few people have

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Speaker 3: gotten more hype and done less with it than Justin Fields.

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Speaker 3: And you know the talents there. I think I think

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Speaker 3: someone pushing some crazy stat that he is just maybe

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Speaker 3: he has more passing touchdowns than Trevor Lawrence at this

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Speaker 3: point of this season, and Trevor Lawrence hasn't missed any games,

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Speaker 3: so yeah, we know the talents there. We've seen these

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Speaker 3: moments and these flashes from Fields. Man, that's a big movement. Chad,

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Speaker 3: like three points of movement. I think he is worth it.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they're they're back up. I joked all the

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Speaker 3: time with Chad, like this guy was not a starter, right,

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Speaker 3: He's someone that need to learn the offense, he needs

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Speaker 3: to learn how to protect the ball, and he's gonna

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Speaker 3: have some growing pains. And Justin Fields looks the part

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Speaker 3: we compare it to him, right, You're like, no, Justin

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Speaker 3: Fields is one of the thirty two best quarterbacks. He

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Speaker 3: should be a starter, should be playing in the league.

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Speaker 3: But all the stats, that's what scares you off. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Evan's just flooding us with stats. Justin Fields nine twenty

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Speaker 3: one and one ats in his career. Justin Fields is

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Speaker 3: one in ten straight up two and nine ats versus

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Speaker 3: the NFC North. These are all really bad stats. This

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Speaker 3: dude is bad. And if you know this show and

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Speaker 3: you know Chad, we've been betting the Bears basically every

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Speaker 3: time in this spot because there's always gonna be value

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Speaker 3: on her, right, because we both think there's there's a

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Speaker 3: ton of talent with Fields, and you know this Bears team,

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Speaker 3: Say what you want about him. They're usually in all

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Speaker 3: these games right go through their schedule. It's not like

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Speaker 3: they're getting dominated blown out even when they had it

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Speaker 3: back up in there. So I'll do it with Chad.

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Speaker 3: I'll bite it and I'll take the seven. But I

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Speaker 3: totally get it people if you're just so burned out

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Speaker 3: on Justin Field's experience and taking a number and then

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Speaker 3: getting burned by him because he does make stupid turnovers

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Speaker 3: and that's all part of it. But how do we

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Speaker 3: avoid this one? I'm trying to think of ways when

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Speaker 3: you avoid this, but it's it's such a big number

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Speaker 3: against a Lions team that, yeah, they might be put

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Speaker 3: the points up, but do we trust their defense not

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Speaker 3: to get back door? And that's the key with this

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Speaker 3: number here. It's like this back door should always be

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Speaker 3: open for us with Justin Field. So I'm getting there,

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Speaker 3: maybe this will be one of our five, but it's

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Speaker 3: just hard for me to swallow where it's like Evan

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Speaker 3: hits us with those stats, and I have to remember

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Speaker 3: that Justin Fields is nine and twenty one ats in

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Speaker 3: his career, which is just insane.

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Speaker 1: So forget about those stats for a second. Let's find

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Speaker 1: different stats to.

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Speaker 2: Nerve number one.

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Speaker 1: This game was way overinflated, and obviously the inflation has

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Speaker 1: come out of it.

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Speaker 2: The wise guys bet the numbers.

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Speaker 1: It was gone ten like in the last forty hours,

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Speaker 1: has gone from ten to seven and a half. It's

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Speaker 1: nearly going from one key number to another key number,

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Speaker 1: and it'll probably get to seven. Don't forget home teams

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Speaker 1: in the division since twenty fifteen, which is the lines

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Speaker 1: in this case, cover against the spread at a forty

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Speaker 1: seven percent rate. Home favorites in the division since twenty

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Speaker 1: fifteen only covered a forty five percent rate. Division dogs

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Speaker 1: the past twenty years ninety games over five hundred against

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Speaker 1: the spread. Okay, so we're in a good spot here

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Speaker 1: with the Bears, and I know what you're saying. I

355
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Speaker 1: know it's scary. I know it's something where we've been

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Speaker 1: burned in the past because of justin fields. But there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of evidence. It's the same thing we talked

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Speaker 1: about with the Browns last week. There's a lot of

359
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Speaker 1: evidence here is that says take the road dog at

360
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Speaker 1: a big number.

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Speaker 3: It used to be a big number, now it's kind

362
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Speaker 3: of big.

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Speaker 2: Over a touchdown is still relatively big.

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Speaker 3: Not for the Bears though, But yeah, I'm with you.

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Speaker 3: I still think it's too high. I'm with Chad on him. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: eight and a half. I would have felt so much

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Speaker 3: better at putting this in the contest.

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Speaker 1: That's what, listen, It's what makes the contest hard and

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Speaker 1: what makes doing well in the contest so much more remarkable, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: it is just not easy to find five games that

371
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Speaker 1: you feel confident about like that every week.

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Speaker 2: It's really really hard to do this sick time, Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: at Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: This ended up being your assignment, says was Miami. My

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Speaker 1: executive decision was Pittsburgh. We talked about this game last Sunday.

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Speaker 1: It was at four and a half. We bettered at

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Speaker 1: four and a half. I liked it as my executive

378
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Speaker 1: decision at four. Obviously a lot to discuss here now

379
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Speaker 1: with Deshaun Watson out, Thompson Robinson starting their bypassing PJ.

380
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Speaker 2: Walker.

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Speaker 1: The reasons I liked this game at plus four, we're

382
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Speaker 1: about Pittsburgh's playmakers on defense, three guys who graded out

383
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Speaker 1: as the as top twenty edge rushers according to Pro

384
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Speaker 1: Football Focus. Every time you turn on the television in

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Speaker 1: the second half. These guys are making plays. They keep

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Speaker 1: the Steelers in the game. We know it's not Kenny Pickett.

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Speaker 1: We know it's not the offense. It's about what this

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Speaker 1: defense does to make plays. So the line obviously is

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Speaker 1: now down to plus one. I will not middle this game, Simon,

390
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 1: There's no middling. The same stats still apply for the

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Speaker 1: Steelers that applied for the Bears as sort of the

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Speaker 1: road team and division games. I don't think we can

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Speaker 1: put it in the contest that whatever it's going to be,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be a plus one plus a half whatever.

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Speaker 1: It's a pass completely for me at this number.

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Speaker 3: Not for me. I still love Pittsburgh. Yeah. The craziest

397
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Speaker 3: thing to me though, again, media is the weirdest shit ever.

398
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Speaker 3: What these people pick and choose what stories to run with. Okay,

399
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 3: so we just had what was the exact injury to Watson?

400
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:08,639
Speaker 3: Do you know the exact injury with what happened to

401
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 3: him Chad shoulder injury? Yes, and you know what he

402
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 3: did to his shoulder fracture, right, So this man went

403
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 3: into the locker room, got a ton of drugs, came

404
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 3: back on when fourteen for fourteen passing, and won a game.

405
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 3: High as a kite. No one's talking about. Everyone's talk

406
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 3: about how tough he is. And also there's shit, It's like, dude,

407
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 3: this dude was high as shit, loose as hell. I mean,

408
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 3: he should do that for the rest of his career,

409
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:37,919
Speaker 3: Like if that's the miracle drug for him. Where it's like,

410
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 3: this dude just needs to get feeling good to play

411
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Speaker 3: good because that was his best half in three years.

412
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Speaker 1: Like, yeah, he shit not just throwing, by the way,

413
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 1: he was running for first downs, he was dodging tacklers.

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Speaker 3: Oh, if go back and watch it. I watched it.

415
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,359
Speaker 3: You can clearly tell this man is on something, okay,

416
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 3: cause it's like it doesn't make sense. This man's taking

417
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 3: hits and he's getting right back up and it's all good.

418
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 3: And I just love that knowing the media touch on

419
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 3: They're like, how tough is this Deshaun Watson? How gritty

420
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 3: is this guy coming back? It's like, oh my god,

421
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 3: oh my god, everyone's bearing the lead here. This dude

422
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 3: was crazy high and somehow had a perfect half and

423
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 3: won an insane game. I mean yeah, like people like you, Chad,

424
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Speaker 3: whoever bet the Browns last week, you must donate half

425
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 3: that money to some type of charity that is not

426
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Speaker 3: your money. That is that's insane. That is so insane,

427
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 3: especial when you learn about his injuries. So yeah, nothing

428
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 3: changed from me. I have a rookie quarterback going up

429
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 3: against Tomlin and I don't have this statue in front

430
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Speaker 3: of me. Maybe Emma can find him. But I love

431
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 3: Tomlin against rookies. All right, hit that horn, babe, let's dance. Yeah,

432
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 3: here we go. DTR will be the thirty fourth rookie

433
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 3: quarterback to make his first start to face the Steelers

434
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 3: under Mike Tomlin. Those qbs are five and twenty eight

435
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 3: straight up with CJ one earlier this season. I think

436
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 3: they blew him out right at home. Is DTR even

437
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 3: with the type of talent that CJ is. No, you

438
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 3: know he didn't urinate down his leg. Man, that's a

439
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 3: great place to begin. We've seen DTR playing. I'm not

440
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 3: gonna fault them for it. Right, he was thrown into

441
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 3: a game and he just looked totally unprepared. You think

442
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 3: one week of getting or three days again first team

443
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 3: reps is going to help this kid before he plays

444
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh in this defense with those backups on offensive line,

445
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 3: Holy shit man, talk about a bad, bad spot for

446
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 3: this Browns team. So if I'm still getting a plus number,

447
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 3: I'm happy to take. And if you're scared that it's

448
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 3: so low, go ahead, throw it in a teaser, do

449
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 3: whatever you need a peace of mind. But I got

450
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 3: this a minus two and a half for Pittsburgh now,

451
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 3: So I'm showing a ton of value right now on

452
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 3: this Pittsburgh line. So Jad might not still be in

453
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 3: love with it, but maybe I can force him to

454
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 3: take this one. As there's still a dog right now.

455
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna flip to them being a favorite

456
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 3: by kickoff.

457
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 2: Yeah.

458
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting is, as you're talking about it,

459
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: I'm thinking to myself, why would I still be in

460
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 1: on the Bearers and then not be in on the Steelers.

461
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 2: It's like I got to be I either got to

462
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 2: be in on both of them, or I can't be

463
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 2: on either of them.

464
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 1: The logic has to apply in both places, because the

465
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 1: Steelers are actually a better team. And we're talking about

466
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: a Browns team that is that it's offensive line is

467
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 1: decimated going against a pass rushing team that is it's

468
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 1: actually better than the Ravens.

469
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 3: And people don't believe in Pittsburgh Chad. Yeah, people don't

470
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 3: believe in this team. I mean you'll hear every day

471
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 3: they're like they've been out gained in every single game.

472
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 3: They're the only team in the NFL to do it.

473
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 3: How are they six and three? Are there really about

474
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 3: to be seven and three? It's just I can't get

475
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 3: over how much people don't understand good coaching and how

476
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,639
Speaker 3: important red zone touchdowns are. It's like, I would be

477
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 3: happy if I had a team that gave up five

478
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,159
Speaker 3: hundred yards per game and my team only put up

479
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 3: two fifty, but we had three touchdowns in the red zone.

480
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 3: They only had one, Like, we're gonna win those games.

481
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 3: And that's exactly what Pittsburgh does. They just they're just

482
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 3: a complete team. It's as if there's only it doesn't

483
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 3: matter how many offensive yards you get. There's a special

484
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 3: teams and a defensive unit. So yeah, Pittsburgh is a

485
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 3: team where I just can't quit them like I'm and

486
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 3: it stinks too, because it feels like I'm I'm betting

487
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 3: them every week and it's like, uh, you know, we

488
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 3: joke for the Russian a let, but it feels like

489
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 3: a little bit like that where it's like, I'm gonna

490
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 3: get caught by this team. I know what they are.

491
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, they keep getting good spots, Like they're a

492
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 3: team that just keeps getting these randomly good spots. I

493
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: mean they're catching Green Bay last week after a big win. Yeah,

494
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 3: they got really lucky that the guys missed an extra point,

495
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 3: that's why they covered the three and a half. But

496
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 3: it's like that's that's the Pittsburgh way, Like they just

497
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 3: have these kind of bounces go their way. So yeah,

498
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 3: the fact that Cleveland's coming off such a big emotional win,

499
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 3: now they have the letdown a losing their quarterback for

500
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 3: the rest of the season. I totally get your guys

501
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 3: angle if you want to take Cleveland. I mean, they're

502
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 3: getting just about the same amount of money right now.

503
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 3: I'm looking the action app it's pretty even even with

504
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 3: the injury newsing. I think that's just because people don't

505
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 3: believe in this Pittsburgh team, right That's just how it is, Chad.

506
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna hold firm and say I do believe

507
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 3: in this team, and I believe them in this game.

508
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: You know what, right now are three games Miami minus

509
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half Bears seven and a half in

510
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus one, and we're about to add one that

511
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 1: I know we're an agreement on. Finally, a game that

512
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 1: hasn't moved Dallas at Carolina Carolina plus ten and a half.

513
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 2: The wise guys like it. We liked it.

514
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: I did take a taste of the Panthers on the

515
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: money line. You can see that in the Action Network app.

516
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: All the stats for Dak is a favorite are important

517
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 1: and relevant, but.

518
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 2: I'm not.

519
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 1: I like the other one. You know, we pick and

520
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 1: choose what we want to believe. Here, teams with a

521
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: winning percentage of twenty five percent or less fifty eight

522
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 1: percent against the spread as a home dog of seven

523
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: or more in the last twenty years that I like

524
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: bigger sample sizes, and I'm like, I'm just never going

525
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: to be a buyer of Dak Prescott as a nearly

526
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,919
Speaker 1: two touchdown favorite on the road. I like Dak as

527
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 1: a big favorite at home, and we've bet him as

528
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: a big favorite at home. This isn't a spot where

529
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: I like Dak. So I think we're in agreement here. Carolina

530
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 1: plus ten and a half is making it in.

531
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, we might get caught here because the Cowboys have

532
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 3: been playing really well offensively this whole season. Even in

533
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 3: their bad games, they're still moving the ball pretty well.

534
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 3: Like that we talked about that CD and Dak Combo

535
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 3: is just deadly right now. Right But the yeah, the

536
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 3: big Achille Eels though, has got to be Pollard. Like

537
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 3: they've made Pollard their number one running back? Shit have

538
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 3: you heard his name since Week one? Like this man

539
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 3: has totally disappeared. And if you look at the stats,

540
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 3: Ezekal Elliott's getting more yards per carry right now this

541
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 3: season than Pollard is, which is just crazy to think

542
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 3: that's that, Like he's doing better up in New England,

543
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 3: who's just a total train wreck than Pollard is behind

544
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 3: that O line with Dak as his quarterback. It is bizarre.

545
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 3: So you know, I want to make this our big

546
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 3: balls bet, Chad, but I'm worried no one's gonna bet

547
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,640
Speaker 3: it but me and you. I'm just worried no one's

548
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 3: gonna listen to us here, because that's how much ball

549
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 3: as it takes. Like you're you're taking the worst team

550
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 3: in football at home as a double digit dog against

551
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 3: you know, perceived one of the best teams in all football,

552
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 3: Like Dallas is hot right now, and they looked really

553
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 3: good last week, and I totally get why you don't

554
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 3: want to do it. Got to take this spot, like

555
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 3: over long term, Chad just told you the numbers. You

556
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 3: make this bet the rest of your life and this

557
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 3: exact spot, with this number and this kind of matchup,

558
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 3: you will be profitable long term. And that's what we're

559
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 3: trying to teach you. So I want to make this

560
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 3: big ball as Chad, you make you with me, Let's

561
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 3: do it.

562
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Big Balls better the week.

563
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers plus ten and a half at home, We're

564
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 1: gonna get screwed, totally gonna get just you know, sideways.

565
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 3: There'll be a quick death though, which will be nice.

566
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: Or we're gonna win because we put a little bit

567
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: of taste in the money line.

568
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, this is going the round robin. So you

569
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 3: hate this now, you're gonna hate it even more with.

570
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 2: You, I was struggling with, like, where are we gonna go?

571
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 2: Big balls?

572
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: I had it as a note for a different game,

573
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 1: But this is great, so all good on that. We

574
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 1: still need to do a foxhole, but maybe it's going

575
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 1: to be a game later in the show, Minnesota and Denver.

576
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 1: You just said when we were talking about sharp calls.

577
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: I love that you said this. You had a feeling

578
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: this was going to be in our contest. My first note,

579
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 1: I have a feeling this will be in the contest,

580
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 1: So why don't we just say it right now?

581
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 2: Denver minds two and a half, so we're at five

582
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 2: for the record.

583
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, part of it is because of the movement. You know,

584
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: there's just a lot of challenges elsewhere. But we broke

585
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: down Russell Wilson and Josh Jobs for our Faves film

586
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 1: room session for YouTube produced by Hutton Jackson, who's also

587
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: producing our video version of the podcast today, and why

588
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: don't you tell people what you thought about Josh Dobbs

589
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: And I'll tell people what I was able to discover

590
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: about Russell Wilson and why we sort of are landing

591
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: on Minnesota on Denver here.

592
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wanted to highlight what's working for Dobbs, and

593
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 3: you know, people are just like blown away. They're like,

594
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: why is this guy a journeyman? Why is no one

595
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 3: giving him a long term chance? And what's wrong with

596
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 3: all these teams passed on them? And it was basically

597
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 3: highlight what is his strength is His strength is his legs,

598
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 3: like his his movement in the pocket. Me and Chat

599
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 3: are watching. It's incredible his how comfortable he was in

600
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 3: the pocket. Body's flying all around him and he kept

601
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 3: total composure, which is kind of thing you see from

602
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 3: a guy who's been in the league a long time

603
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 3: and he's kind of figured it out right. It's someone

604
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 3: that they know the hits are going to come, but

605
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 3: he's so calm and confident in the pocket. It is

606
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 3: crazy to watch, and his movement and his running ability

607
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 3: is amazing. But I wanted to highlight he's not a thrower.

608
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 3: That's the reason why he's going to all these different teams. People.

609
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: He's not a consistent thrower. That's his weakness. And you know,

610
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 3: going back and watching that Vikings game, they've seen the

611
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 3: offense to have him have one open read looks kind

612
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 3: of right. They'd have him roll out and either be

613
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 3: his tight end there that's breaking open, or you know,

614
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: a wide receiver over the top. It would just be

615
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 3: a simple one two read. That's the only option he has.

616
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 5: It.

617
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 3: If it's not there, he can run it for a

618
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 3: couple of yards. And I love that they're doing that

619
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 3: with him in the offense. You know incomes this Denver

620
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 3: defense that they're just fast, Like if you go back

621
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 3: and watch all their tape these last couple of weeks,

622
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 3: they're fast across the board and they're hard to run

623
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 3: the ball like that against, like a quarterback trying to scramble.

624
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 3: I mean, that's what Mahome is one of the best

625
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 3: in the league at right. Mahomes is so incredible doing

626
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 3: what Dobbs is okay at, which is not panicleing the

627
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 3: pocket it breaks down, he can scramble for you for

628
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 3: that first down. Was he doing that against Denver in

629
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 3: the two games they faced him, No, because they knew

630
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 3: how to defend it. I think they'll run the same

631
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: exact scheme against Dobbs here, where at least you have

632
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 3: to worry about him passing so much as you do.

633
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 3: It's the exact same thing as the Chiefs. You need

634
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 3: to double the tight end, which is Hockinson, and you

635
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 3: need to have a spy in the quarterback. So I

636
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 3: think it's all there for Denver. But what really gives

637
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 3: me confident shat is just the love and all the

638
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 3: money and all the bets seeing it all come in

639
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 3: on the vikings and the fact that the Lions reversed movement,

640
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: like it's gone from one and a half to two

641
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 3: to now it's at two and a half. I think

642
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 3: this might get to three. Like, I just think the

643
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 3: pros will keep betting this one just because Denver feels

644
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 3: like they have found something and the Vikings feel like

645
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 3: they are so due for a totally shit bad game.

646
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 3: I mean, what are they on a five or six

647
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 3: game win street. I mean, Kirk Cousins was playing amazing,

648
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 3: they went on this crazy run. They bring in this

649
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 3: backup Dobs who wins a road game I'm pretty sure

650
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 3: against Atlanta and then he came home and just beat

651
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 3: the Saints. Like we joke all the time, the NFC

652
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 3: South might be the worst division all football. So this

653
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 3: man just got fat and rich off being two teams that,

654
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 3: yeah they're leaving their division, but they might be really bad.

655
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 3: Now they're playing a team that we view as one

656
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 3: of the tougher divisions all football, right, I mean, as

657
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 3: shitty as the Raiders are, they're what above five hundred,

658
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 3: They're at least have five hundred. Sam goes for the

659
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 3: Chargers and then the Chiefs, Like this is a really

660
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 3: tough division and Denver showed out these last couple of weeks.

661
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 3: So I can't pass on how well this Denver defense

662
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 3: has been playing, how good they've playing as a team.

663
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 3: And Russell will us on what you're about to break down,

664
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 3: how he's improved these last couple of weeks.

665
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, Russell Wilson is sort of going unnoticed. The

666
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: key to Russell Wilson, if you watch, and what Sean

667
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 1: Payton has done so brilliantly in season is getting him

668
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: to make decisions faster and putting him in a position

669
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: to succeed by getting the ball snapped before there's less

670
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: than ten seconds on the play clock. And early in

671
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 1: the season you would see him get.

672
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 2: Into the line.

673
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: There was a lot of confusion, a lot of mayhem.

674
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: You saw bad, bad fumbles, bad decision making. On the

675
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: film room session we did yesterday, we broke down a

676
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: game clinching fumble that he forced himself by knocking the

677
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 1: ball out of his hand with his own leg against

678
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: the Jets. The next week a pick against the Chiefs

679
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: when he had less than one hundred yards passing, and

680
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 1: then they had ten days off, and since then they

681
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 1: won three games in a row, and not against sort

682
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 1: of Patsy's right. They beat the Bills, they beat the Chiefs,

683
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 1: the Packers obviously not not as challenging. But what Mahomes

684
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 1: has done since then seventy two percent completion percentage, six touchdowns,

685
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 1: no interceptions, but also just making decisions. And you even

686
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,479
Speaker 1: saw it in that Bills game. Second and one end

687
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 1: of the first quarter. Instead of doddling back and forth,

688
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 1: he immediately gets the ball out when his primary reads

689
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 1: aren't open, they get a first down. Next play started

690
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 1: the second quarter, the lane opens in the middle of

691
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:28,959
Speaker 1: the field. Instead of trying to stay back and make

692
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 1: the big play, immediately scrambles ten yards for a first down.

693
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: Like he's just a better quarterback. The guy's got eighteen

694
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 1: touchdown passes and four picks. That's second most touchdown passes

695
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: in the NFL right now and second fewest picks. So like,

696
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus, seventh best quarterback under pressure.

697
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 1: And he will get a lot of blitz's from the Viking.

698
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 2: So we like the Broncos.

699
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 3: We just yeah, I'll give you just one more actual

700
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 3: stat for Denver defense, because I was talking about how

701
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 3: good they've been, but Evan gave us an actual, real

702
00:33:55,440 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 3: stat that people can understand more. Broncos defense is tenth

703
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 3: an EPA per play since week six, So you know,

704
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 3: that's a huge improvement because through weeks one and five

705
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 3: they were thirty second in the league, and so since

706
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 3: week six they're tenth. Like, that's not a small sampler,

707
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: that's multiple weeks, and that's multiple weeks of faith. Like

708
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 3: Chatt is talking about, they faced the Chiefs twice in

709
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 3: that run. They faced the Bills in that run. So yeah,

710
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 3: clearly this defense. Since that's seventy point loss and a

711
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,399
Speaker 3: bunch of you know, they got rid of a bunch

712
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 3: of guys from that defense. Things have changed it for Denver.

713
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 3: So trying not to think too much about you're taking

714
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 3: a bad Denver team as a favorite. This is not

715
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 3: that team. They're a much better team. They should be

716
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 3: a favorite in this game.

717
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,839
Speaker 1: Don't think, just do the one you got to think

718
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: about Philadelphia, Kansas City. Look, we liked it a two

719
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 1: and a half. It got bid up to three. Right

720
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,760
Speaker 1: after we did all that. We listed all the reasons

721
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 1: why we hate it. Mahomes in November December, virtually unbeatable Momes.

722
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 3: Well, I just wanted people to know this is why

723
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 3: people are going to push back on it.

724
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 1: Mahomes is a favorite of lesson three virtually impossib well,

725
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 1: they'll cover against. This feels like the Super Bowl bet

726
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 1: all over again, right where we were on Philly last

727
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,879
Speaker 1: year at the same number and ended up getting beat

728
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 1: in a bad spot. Philly was the right side in

729
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 1: that game, like they played better. There were some bad

730
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:19,720
Speaker 1: plays and then they got my homes. So and reft

731
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: I wrote, this is a foxhole of big balls. We

732
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: went big balls with Carolina. If we're staying on Philly

733
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 1: and I haven't bought out of this bet kind of

734
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: feels like a foxhole to me.

735
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:33,839
Speaker 3: I can't do it because I'm not going to make

736
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:35,479
Speaker 3: this one of my five biggest bets of the week.

737
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 3: I'm just not going to do it. I'm on the Eagles,

738
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 3: I'm taking the three. I'm happy to take it. But

739
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 3: you just we talked about like this. My homes spot

740
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 3: has not been good to us, and it's not a

741
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 3: great spot to fade him even worse. I saw that

742
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 3: Kelsey's parents are going to be there and Taylor Swift's

743
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 3: parents are going to be there, Chad, how can we

744
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 3: go against love? How can we go against love?

745
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 1: Nobody loves love more than me.

746
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 3: So I don't know what to do with this one.

747
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 3: I'm on them, but I don't know if I want

748
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 3: to make this our fox. Well I have another game

749
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 3: of mind. I just I don't know what to do

750
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 3: because I'm seeing a good number. But I hate I

751
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 3: hate how the professionals are coming in on the Chiefs

752
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: and like the guys I've talked to like that I respect.

753
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 3: It's like, fuck, this is just so typical, Like am

754
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 3: I I just like I just said it. The Eagles

755
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 3: just are a much better team right now, and we're

756
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 3: getting three. It's crazy because home field basically dead, Like

757
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 3: home Field really is basically dead. It's like a point

758
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 3: and a half two points depending on the place. So

759
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 3: you're telling me on a neutral field the Chiefs will

760
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 3: be minus one at this point of the season, and

761
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 3: I wouldn't believe it. Like the Eagles have been more

762
00:36:56,080 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 3: complete offensively and defensively than the chief have. Right the Chiefs,

763
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 3: their best unit this season has been their defense. But

764
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 3: me and Chat talked though they've had injuries to it,

765
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 3: that's why we love Denver. Against this Chiefs team a

766
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago, It's like They're a different team

767
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 3: on defense when they have injuries. So I'm trying to

768
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 3: get there, brother, but this line is just so fishy, fishy, fishy, fishy.

769
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 3: So I I just won't make this one of our

770
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 3: five this week. I tell you that much. I just

771
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 3: can't do it because I can see it now, me

772
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 3: and you will be sitting there. It's fourteen to three

773
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 3: mahomes like midway through the second quarter, and we're both

774
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 3: just like, of course, like this is this is why

775
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 3: this Chiefs team have won multiple Super Bowls and they're

776
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 3: just a dynasty. It's just what they do in these spots.

777
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,920
Speaker 3: So I'm taking the three. I think the Eagles are

778
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 3: the better team, but I just don't know if it's

779
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:48,399
Speaker 3: gonna be my five biggest bets of the week.

780
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, Yeah, I mean I don't know that. Like,

781
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 2: we've got five games that we like right now.

782
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:55,800
Speaker 1: I don't know that it would beat any of those

783
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: five games too much. The line is too right, Yes,

784
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 1: it would be too much tension at the end of

785
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 1: the week for this to be the game that we're

786
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 1: hinging a potentially you know what is otherwise a two

787
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 1: and two week on this game. Let's talk for a

788
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: minute about Arizona and Houston. Normally I auto bet when

789
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:19,320
Speaker 1: you're like, you've been adamant about this game and I

790
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: have not been able to pull the trigger on Arizona,

791
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 1: Like I just can't wrap my head around it. I

792
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 1: feel like there's too much credit. Like you said, the

793
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,439
Speaker 1: game was at five and a half, got down to five,

794
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:34,879
Speaker 1: four and a half, four, and now professionals have come

795
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: back in on Houston. Yeah, I think CJ. Stroud might

796
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 1: be an exception to all these rules, at least he

797
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 1: has been this season, and so it's hard for me

798
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 1: to pull the trigger on Kyler Murray, who I think

799
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: is inconsistent and has a little bit of shine right now.

800
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,919
Speaker 3: And CJ at home, which he's performed better as well

801
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 3: at home. I totally get it. And that's all gonna see.

802
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:02,240
Speaker 3: If you want to make this our foxhole just because

803
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 3: you know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

804
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

805
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 3: a city. I'm a foxhole guy. The bullets are a

806
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:13,760
Speaker 3: fly and man, no one, no one wants to take Arizona.

807
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 3: I feel like maybe the people you talk to they

808
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:19,919
Speaker 3: might like Arizona, but everyone is in on this Houston team.

809
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 3: Here we go, Thank you, Evan. Here we go. Kyler

810
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 3: Murray ats career dog twenty one and twelve and two.

811
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 3: Dude his money as a dog as a favorite nine

812
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 3: and fifteen ats. So clearly we want to back Kyler

813
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 3: as a dog. This is when you do want to

814
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 3: back Kyler. But totally gear where Chad's coming from. Like,

815
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 3: this shit ain't fun. Like betting against CJ, the guy

816
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,439
Speaker 3: we just talked about. He could win MVP this year.

817
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 3: That's our real thing, people. I'm not the only crazy

818
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:52,399
Speaker 3: person saying or thinking that. It's like, if this guy

819
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 3: can get this team who had the number two pick

820
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 3: in the last year's draft, that have just been an

821
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:02,439
Speaker 3: absolute joke. What three seasons now ever since to hold

822
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 3: the Shawn trade debacle happened. Pretty amazing story. But we

823
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 3: play numbers here. This feels like it should be three.

824
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 3: I'm getting up across a key number of four, four

825
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 3: and a half with Arizona. This will be one of

826
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,680
Speaker 3: my five biggest bets. And yeah, I'm gonna be an

827
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 3: absolute sucker betting against CJ here at home, but I

828
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 3: gotta do it.

829
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 1: If you feel that strongly about it, we can make

830
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 1: it the foxhole, but it's not. I can't see it

831
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:36,240
Speaker 1: being one of our five. So that's fine, Like, yeah.

832
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 3: That's again, it's all give and take, baby, if you

833
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 3: have another, if we have five, we're good with. We

834
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 3: don't need to get this one in. I am happy

835
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 3: not to have to have this one in against CJ.

836
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,399
Speaker 3: I'm just I just like it because it's just it's

837
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 3: the right play, like this is a long term another

838
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 3: long term winner, like you play this spot. I just

839
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 3: gave you the status Kyler as a dog, Like that's

840
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 3: that's when you want to back Kyler. It's when people

841
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 3: don't believe him, they're underestimating them. It's not when he's

842
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 3: getting all the hype and the smoke possess. So yeah,

843
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 3: I still don't think anyone watched that Arizona Atlanta game.

844
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:08,839
Speaker 3: Only me. That was That's your classic corner TV game,

845
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 3: the Shado always says. So I don't think the public

846
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 3: winner stands that Kyler looks like he hasn't missed a beat,

847
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 3: And yeah, totally get it though, by the public love CJ.

848
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 3: It's like, I can't get over how amazing that win

849
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 3: was last week and all of his wins this season,

850
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 3: he's just he was incredible. He plays way above what

851
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,399
Speaker 3: he should be playing as a rookie. We haven't seen

852
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 3: anything like Aroonan. I guess we have. Last time we

853
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 3: said it was Dak when Dak had this kind of run.

854
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 3: But think about how good that Cowboys team was compared

855
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 3: to this team here, right, Like Dak was a fourth

856
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 3: round pick that fell into a team that was built

857
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 3: for Tony Romo, like it had all the pieces already there.

858
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 3: This dude fell into a team that had no pieces. Right,

859
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 3: He's turning Nico Collins into a household name. He's tarn Yeah,

860
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 3: Tank Del What the hell is the other guy named

861
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 3: Pharaoh Brown? Like a guy who got cut from the

862
00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:02,240
Speaker 3: Cowboys is number one in the league for catches yards

863
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:06,280
Speaker 3: per catch, right, Like bizarre, bizarre what they're doing in Houston.

864
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 3: He's changing everything. So totally get it if you're straight

865
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 3: off this number. But it's the smart play people. I

866
00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 3: gotta beg you to do it. You just got to

867
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 3: you gotta take this number.

868
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 2: CJ.

869
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 1: Strouds started the season two hundred and one to win MVP.

870
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 1: Now he's twenty to one.

871
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 2: Last rookie, dam last rookie to win MVP Jim Brown

872
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:27,919
Speaker 2: nineteen fifty seven.

873
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:30,359
Speaker 3: Stott sid.

874
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 1: No, I had two more games that I want us

875
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 1: to talk about quickly. Okay, Tennessee at Jacksonville. I don't

876
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 1: like it still, but it's like the kind of game

877
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: that we should normally play. No. We said if it

878
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 1: got to seven, we were gonna tell about it. It's

879
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 1: Mike vrabel, a big dog on the road. This is

880
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 1: when he wins. This is when he covers. I can't

881
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 1: find any on the field reason to like the Titans here,

882
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 1: but strictly with the coach and the spot. Division game,

883
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 1: division road team, division road dog, this is when you

884
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 1: back the trend. I haven't bet it yet. I don't

885
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,760
Speaker 1: know that I like it any more than our five currently,

886
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 1: but I have to mention it. I have to mention.

887
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,879
Speaker 3: It, and I might have to make it my Survivor pick,

888
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 3: which sucks. Like I've been going through who we have

889
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 3: left and like this, this might be the best time

890
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 3: to take the Jaguars at home against a rookie quarterback.

891
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 3: So I'm with Chad. I'll throw a penny on the seven,

892
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 3: but nothing big because I'm gonna need this for Survivor.

893
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 3: I don't want to be sweating.

894
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 2: Oh god, but.

895
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 3: You're so right, Like this is the classic Vrabel.

896
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 2: Spot, but this is a Rabel spot.

897
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 3: It's also a great It's also a great Jaguar spot. Right,

898
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 3: you gave us that stat. Teams that get blown out

899
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 3: come back. Yes, they usually bounce back, especially teams that

900
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 3: are well coached, like the guy Doug p that was

901
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 3: a total train wreck. Right. It was like the same

902
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 3: thing when Dallas played the forty nine ers, like it

903
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:04,400
Speaker 3: was literally the worst game of the year they had.

904
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,120
Speaker 3: What happened the next week with Dallas? Right, they get

905
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,359
Speaker 3: completely blew out of the team, and you expect the same.

906
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 3: The Jaguars are the cream of the crop, the leader

907
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 3: of this division that we keep talking about them waiting

908
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 3: on Trevor Lwrence to take that next step, And yeah,

909
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 3: he hasn't. He's had some real stinkers this season, but

910
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 3: he's also i think, playing really well in the system.

911
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 3: So yeah, if you want to take the seven with

912
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 3: me and Chad, we can do it. But I'm telling

913
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 3: you this can be one my survivor pick, So it's

914
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 3: not gonna it. Probably wanted to be my top fifteen

915
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:35,800
Speaker 3: big bets this week.

916
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:37,280
Speaker 2: Last game.

917
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: Seattle at the Rams, so Stafford got helped. Stafford was announced,

918
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 1: the line moved from two and a half down to one.

919
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 1: I stole some stats from the Ray Bound Stucky Action

920
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 1: Network podcast from the six Pack. You can listen to

921
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: it now or watch the video on YouTube. Rams have

922
00:44:56,160 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 1: had a better strength of schedule adjusted quarterback. Last time

923
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 1: they played, Rams out gained them by nearly three hundred

924
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 1: yards double them up on first downs.

925
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 2: That was without Cooper Cup.

926
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:14,360
Speaker 1: Seattle's wins had been fraudulent Giants, Panthers, Cardinals, Washington that

927
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 1: they needed a miracle.

928
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 3: So maybe Detroit give them some flowers over time.

929
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: So do we go with, Like, are the Rams a

930
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 1: pick that we're not talking enough about that should be

931
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:30,720
Speaker 1: in our top five because like we weren't really focused

932
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 1: on until late in the week.

933
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:32,799
Speaker 2: Sometimes we do that.

934
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:35,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is a pros game, Like I talked

935
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 3: to a bunch of pros who love this on sharp calls.

936
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 3: They love this game. I got no real feel for it,

937
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 3: Like I want to take the Rams, but it's Yeah,

938
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 3: it's a tough one for me. It really is, because

939
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 3: you know this number is gonna flip, right, And Evan

940
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 3: gave us that number that when these teams move from

941
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 3: a dog to a favorite, it's not it's not great

942
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 3: for the Rams. So that's another fear with this RAMS number.

943
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 2: But interesting, ah man.

944
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is uh, this is definitely a Pros game.

945
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 3: The Pros are on the Rams. I just I have

946
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 3: no real feel for this one. I'll be honest, Chad,

947
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 3: Like I want to get down the Rams coming into this.

948
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 3: I wanted to get on just with Stafford coming back, Like,

949
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 3: I agree with everything those guys were talking about, Like,

950
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 3: I think the Rams are just as good as Seattle.

951
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 3: Like they've just they've had some bad injuries, right, Stafford

952
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 3: missing games. That's gonna kill you like that. That's the

953
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 3: reason the record is what it is. They're not that record, right,

954
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 3: They're much better team than their record perceived. So I'm

955
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,800
Speaker 3: with the guys and I get what the pros are saying.

956
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:39,359
Speaker 3: Maybe this will end up being one of our five

957
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 3: comes Sunday. It's just right now sending your Thursday. I

958
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:43,359
Speaker 3: just can't get there. I have no money bet on

959
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:46,359
Speaker 3: this game either side, so no real fill from this one.

960
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 3: But yes, the Pros that they like the Rams in

961
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 3: the spot.

962
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: Simon, can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in

963
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 1: the United States.

964
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 3: Game Time.

965
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 2: That's right, it's our.

966
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 1: Sponsor, game Time. I love game Time for two reasons.

967
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 1: One because they sponsor this show. So number two, I

968
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:03,840
Speaker 1: actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got amazing

969
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 1: last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including pro

970
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 1: and college football games, speaking which I'm using the game

971
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 1: Time app right now from my house here in Connecticut.

972
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:17,480
Speaker 1: Guess what hockey fans, You can get in to see

973
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 1: the New Jersey Devils. Devils for less than one hundred

974
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: and fifty bucks. Go see NHL hockey no matter where

975
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 1: you live. Download the game Time app, get down and

976
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 1: has some fun this week. Go swait your bets live

977
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 1: and in person, and you can redeem code favorites for

978
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 1: twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just

979
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 1: download the app and enter code favorites twenty dollars off

980
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 1: last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed.

981
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:45,959
Speaker 2: All right. Reminder about our contest picks.

982
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,320
Speaker 1: Simon and I typically enter our picks into the contest

983
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 1: website on Thursday after the show.

984
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 2: If you want to see those unofficial.

985
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 1: Picks we've entered before they lock, go to the contest

986
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 1: site favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com search for the phase five.

987
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:00,800
Speaker 2: That's us.

988
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:04,880
Speaker 1: We typically have these picks visible by Thursday afternoon before

989
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 1: we get to our money Line Underdog Round Robin. The

990
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 1: week eleven contest tiebreaker is total rushing yards on Monday night.

991
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 1: Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward writes a weekly

992
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 1: article about tiebreaker strategy, and a link to the article

993
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 1: can be found in this episode's description. If you want

994
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 1: to leg up on the contest, good luck, all right,

995
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 1: signon our Moneyline Underdog Round Robin.

996
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:37,239
Speaker 4: Dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.

997
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 2: Hello, Carolina Panthers, get that one in there.

998
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 3: Gotta get Arizona in after I just hype them up

999
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 3: all that time.

1000
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 2: Here, we do have to get Arizona in there.

1001
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: Let's cheat a little eagle, Yeah, yeah, I get the

1002
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 3: Eagles in there. Should we do the coward cheat and

1003
00:48:55,680 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 3: take Pittsburgh Pittsburgh plus one hundred? Yep, because it is

1004
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 3: a plus number.

1005
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:04,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, Carolina and Arizona Philly in Pittsburgh so far.

1006
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 3: So we got we need one more? Oh god, Rams

1007
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 3: now minus one four?

1008
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 2: How about the Bears?

1009
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 3: All right? I like that because last week, thanks to

1010
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 3: my guy Chad here, I hit the Cleveland You know

1011
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 3: that was that was a really nice pay to the

1012
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 3: Cleveland Denver. I think it made me thirteen or twelve

1013
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 3: to one, So yeah, yeah, that was really good. Yeah,

1014
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:38,479
Speaker 3: let's do it. Let's get Chicago in there.

1015
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 2: All right. You know what else we're gonna do.

1016
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 1: We're gonna make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza

1017
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 1: sponsor of the NFL, part of your game today, Simon,

1018
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 1: We're already in mid November this Thanksgiving.

1019
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 2: Are you most grateful for Little Caesars Pizza?

1020
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:51,800
Speaker 3: I am Chad.

1021
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: Order online during.

1022
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 1: Our pizza pizza pre game one hour before NFL games

1023
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 1: and get ready for some football and fine, choose your

1024
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 1: favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the topics your crave. Simon,

1025
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 1: what do you think about this new motto I invented

1026
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:08,240
Speaker 1: just on the spot. Even if your car is coated

1027
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:14,239
Speaker 1: and rust, you can always afford crazy crust. Love it.

1028
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 2: However you order your pizza, you win.

1029
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or

1030
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 1: our in store pizzaa portal pickup. So grab some friends

1031
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. It's time

1032
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:28,320
Speaker 1: for I'm.

1033
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 3: A Survivor the Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1034
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:41,080
Speaker 2: Jags.

1035
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:44,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, gotta do it. I guess like I'm like going

1036
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 3: through them right now. I could could take the lines,

1037
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:50,919
Speaker 3: but I really don't want to. And that's the only

1038
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 3: other real option. Like I've already used Dallas, I've already

1039
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:57,400
Speaker 3: used the Dolphins, already used the forty nine ers. Yeah,

1040
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 3: I'm sorry people, this is this is what it' start.

1041
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,800
Speaker 3: It's getting ugly. We gotta do we gotta take the jags.

1042
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 3: I hate it, but they're the best option I got.

1043
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:09,840
Speaker 1: Sometimes when we're doing the show, I'm looking at the

1044
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 1: script that I have in front of me, not at

1045
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: the zoom, so I can't always see you, And so

1046
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:20,279
Speaker 1: I'll be looking at the script and I will ask

1047
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 1: you a question and I don't go back to the zoom.

1048
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 1: And sometimes you're so deep in thought you pause for

1049
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:28,800
Speaker 1: like an extra two seconds or so. And just now,

1050
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 1: when you pause so long for the jags, I kind

1051
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 1: of thought you would just frozen.

1052
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh no, did we lose.

1053
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 1: Are dead air?

1054
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:39,359
Speaker 2: Dead Air? Dead Air? All right?

1055
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:44,240
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about your biggest bets of the week.

1056
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 1: Where are you right now on your biggest bets of

1057
00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 1: the week.

1058
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 3: I feel bad because people got pissed last week because

1059
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 3: I end up buying out that Bengals position. But this

1060
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:59,319
Speaker 3: week I will not be buying out people unless both

1061
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:01,280
Speaker 3: receivers are. We had all of a sudden from Miami.

1062
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 3: I'm in all Miami. I've been betting Miami, you know,

1063
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:07,360
Speaker 3: since Sunday night, and now that number is all up

1064
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 3: to thirteen and a half and I'm gonna still fair

1065
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 3: a little on there. All right, So our biggest bets Miami, Arizona,

1066
00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and Denver, so right now, Yeah, those guys they

1067
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:21,239
Speaker 3: keep adding up.

1068
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 2: But of it.

1069
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty pretty gross week. But I love these games,

1070
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 3: I really do.

1071
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet

1072
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 1: three six five Bet three six five thousand and two Ordinary.

1073
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Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with

1074
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power out the odds one

1075
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1076
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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five boosts specific markets to your winnings

1077
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 1: and even parlays, and they don't stop there. Keep an

1078
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:46,799
Speaker 1: eye out for their biggest and best odds with the

1079
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 1: incredible super Boost. Check out the boosts and see why

1080
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 1: it's never ordinary at bet three sixty five. Must be

1081
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio,

1082
00:52:57,480 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 1: Virginia or eighteen or older and kenty gambling problem called

1083
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off

1084
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:07,400
Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All right, before we

1085
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:10,240
Speaker 1: get out of here, let's bring in Action Network Director

1086
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 1: or RESEARCHFN Abrams, the engine behind the stats and nuggets

1087
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:16,319
Speaker 1: we mentioned so often on the show and across our

1088
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 1: entire network. Evan, you're gonna get the last word. And

1089
00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 1: if you don't give me confirmation bias about it and

1090
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 1: they've heard that's I am going to freaking.

1091
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 3: Lose the last word with Evan Abrams.

1092
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 2: We're finished talking.

1093
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, I stayed a little away this week, but let's

1094
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 5: get into it. So I mentioned this stat on Tuesday

1095
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 5: about Jerry Gobb covering eleven straight games against the NFC North.

1096
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:40,320
Speaker 5: So in the last twenty years, only one other quarterback

1097
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 5: has covered at least eleven straight versus division opponent. Can

1098
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:47,680
Speaker 5: you name him? At AFC North, AFC South. He's retired.

1099
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 5: He recently declared the Civil War is over I don't

1100
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 5: know if you remember him anybody. No, Andrew Loven Gerard.

1101
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 5: There you go, and Andrew Andrew Willlock. Okay, So Andrew

1102
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,600
Speaker 5: Luck and Jari gov had the longest streak, so God

1103
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 5: can break that this weekend.

1104
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 3: Here's the next one for you.

1105
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 5: So Chiefs Eagles is a betting matchup twenty eight years

1106
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 5: in the making. So Eagles and Chiefs are the first

1107
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 5: matchup of teams being favored in their first nine games

1108
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:16,840
Speaker 5: of the season since forty nine Ers Cowboys back in

1109
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 5: nineteen ninety five. No, it wasn't Steve Young and Troy Aikman.

1110
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:24,800
Speaker 5: It was actually Elvis Gerback and Wade Wilson because Aikman,

1111
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:27,759
Speaker 5: who started, was hurt in the first quarter. Dallas was

1112
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 5: minus thirteen and lost outright. So twenty eight years since

1113
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 5: we've had two teams favored in their first nine games

1114
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 5: face off against each other. Unfortunately the dog in those

1115
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 5: games six and twenty three. So not great straight up,

1116
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 5: not a great stat. But let's talk about one more so.

1117
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,279
Speaker 5: This one actually was a favorite on Twitter last week

1118
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:49,799
Speaker 5: X whatever you want to call it. But when both

1119
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 5: teams are on extended rest, which is eight days or more,

1120
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 5: the under is now one oh one forty seven and

1121
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 5: one since twenty eighteen, including twenty five and five this

1122
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:04,360
Speaker 5: season last week. This week, unfortunately it's Chiefs Eagles, so

1123
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 5: that is the one game that fits, so that that

1124
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:08,920
Speaker 5: is the under you're looking at there. And a friendly

1125
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 5: reminder primetime unders that is night games and the international game.

1126
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 5: So far thirty and seven this season, so see if

1127
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 5: that continues.

1128
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 2: Evan didn't do anything to make either of us feel better.

1129
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 2: That's a goal, all right.

1130
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 1: Let's recap our Foxhol Arizona plus five one of Simon's

1131
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 1: biggest bets of the week. I'm not even sure I'm

1132
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:33,719
Speaker 1: in the Foxhol with him, but I will be because

1133
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:36,800
Speaker 1: he's my guy and I back him one hundred percent.

1134
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 1: Our big balls Carolina plus ten and a half the

1135
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 1: exec decision. Remember you got to listen to the show

1136
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. That was Pittsburgh plus four. That number's gone.

1137
00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:48,240
Speaker 1: We're still gonna like Pittsburgh plus one in the contest,

1138
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,920
Speaker 1: Simon says, with Miami minus twelve also long gone, thirteen

1139
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 1: and a half will probably still put it in the contest.

1140
00:55:54,640 --> 00:56:02,080
Speaker 1: Money line underdog round Robin Carolina, Arizona, Philly, Pittsburgh, Chicago

1141
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 1: if we had to lock it in right now.

1142
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 2: The paths five for now.

1143
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 1: Denver minus two and a half, Miami minus thirteen and

1144
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:16,440
Speaker 1: a half, Bears plus seven and a half, Pittsburgh plus one,

1145
00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:20,440
Speaker 1: Carolina plus ten and a half. I think the debates

1146
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,320
Speaker 1: are going to be over the next forty eight hours

1147
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 1: forty eight to seventy two hours rams in Arizona. Do

1148
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:30,560
Speaker 1: they end up as we hear more information? Do they

1149
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:32,719
Speaker 1: end up replacing any of these teams? What do you

1150
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 1: think of that?

1151
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:36,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just hoping for Arizona six and a half

1152
00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 3: in contest. That would be amazing. I could see us

1153
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:41,320
Speaker 3: getting in there. But if it's four and a half

1154
00:56:41,400 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 3: five and a half, I don't know. It'd be a

1155
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 3: lot harder to talk me into it.

1156
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:47,880
Speaker 1: All right, Before we sign off, reminder that Simon and

1157
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 1: I will be back with our week eleven recap episode

1158
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 1: live on the Action Network YouTube page the Sunday and

1159
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 1: every Sunday seven thirty. Also reminder our Sunday episode on

1160
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:03,800
Speaker 1: December third will be live and in person in Hoboken,

1161
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 1: New Jersey. The Shepherd and the Knucklehead December third Live Show.

1162
00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:14,640
Speaker 1: Come join us, Prizes, drinks, hugs from Simon and I

1163
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 1: so much more. You must rsvp. The link to RSVP

1164
00:57:21,360 --> 00:57:26,320
Speaker 1: is in the episode description. For YouTube and for the podcasts.

1165
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 1: Wherever you listen to your podcasts, please RSVP and join

1166
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:32,800
Speaker 1: Simon and I. Doors will open at four o'clock. Sweat

1167
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:35,400
Speaker 1: the afternoon games with us on Sunday. We'll bet them up.

1168
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 1: We'll watch the games, and then we're gonna do a podcast.

1169
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 1: We're gonna review it all. Download us from Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

1170
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, rate review, Subscribe with this

1171
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want feedback as a gift

1172
00:57:47,280 --> 00:57:49,680
Speaker 1: till Sunday night at seven thirty. Love You.

1173
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you, or

1174
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:02,479
Speaker 2: some when you care about has a gambling problem, help

1175
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 2: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1176
00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 2: gambler