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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get

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Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: We drown updated. Usually we're with Jeffrey Rosenberg of Black Rock.

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Speaker 3: When we're breathless, the Feds cut rates, blah blah blah.

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Speaker 3: Today we pause and we have a quiet or mer

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Speaker 3: serene Jeff Rosenberg he comes in Cardigan, He's like casual,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's like not fed day or jobstay or

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Speaker 3: CPI day. An intelligent conversation. How hard is it to

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Speaker 3: be at Blackrock and be trying to figure out coupon

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Speaker 3: or total return?

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Speaker 4: Is it a fun business now or is it brutal

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Speaker 4: every day day to make the right decision.

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Speaker 5: Well, there's just a lot of cross currents.

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Speaker 6: And although it seems kind of quiet, it's it's about

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Speaker 6: an hour and ten minutes till you know, we start

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Speaker 6: the morning in fixed income and then it's ECB day. Actually,

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Speaker 6: so there's it never it never stops.

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Speaker 3: Is the stuff you learned at Temper at Carnegie Melon

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Speaker 3: valid now is the textbooks help you in this fixed

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Speaker 3: income market?

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Speaker 7: You know, it's a great it's a great question.

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Speaker 6: And I talk a lot to new graduates, and you know,

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Speaker 6: I look back on you know, I was the third

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Speaker 6: program at the Carnegie Mellon Computational Finance program, and you

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Speaker 6: know what was important is is that you learned how

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Speaker 6: to learn. You learned how to keep your skills relevant

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Speaker 6: because like, for example, when I was there, like the

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Speaker 6: credit derivatives market hadn't yet even been invented, but the

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Speaker 6: underlying kind of intellectual foundations of that was interest rate derivatives.

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Speaker 6: And so I had the interest rate derivative background, and

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Speaker 6: then when credit derivatives became kind of invented, it was

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Speaker 6: all based on the same kind of academic I.

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Speaker 4: Want to get this in quickly. Paul wants to jump in.

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Speaker 3: We've got Jeff Rosenberger Blackrock with us for this entire

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Speaker 3: Two blocks into forty five after the hour, I was

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Speaker 3: in the Saint Regions Hotel in Beijing and Jillian Tet

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Speaker 3: did an article on something I'd never heard of, cdo

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Speaker 3: squaredes a.

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Speaker 4: Million years ago?

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Speaker 3: Are we back to that now with derivative cuteness? Are

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Speaker 3: we doing in six seven reducts.

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Speaker 6: So you know, it's it's a it's a it's equip

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Speaker 6: somewhat attributed to to Mark Twain. History doesn't repeat, but

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Speaker 6: it rhymes, and I think that's the way to think about,

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Speaker 6: you know, cycles and financial cycles and innovation, you know,

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Speaker 6: particularly around around credit. You know, we've had credit cycles

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Speaker 6: from time immemorial.

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Speaker 7: This one is.

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Speaker 6: Particularly interesting, right because it's in the post GFC environment

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Speaker 6: where we've seen something we've never seen before, this massive

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Speaker 6: expansion of liquidity from a step function change in the

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Speaker 6: role of central banks and the amount of liquidity in

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Speaker 6: the market. And liquidity is the essential ingredient in extending

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Speaker 6: a credit cycle, right, my favorite, probably greatest quip of

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Speaker 6: all time. You know, hats off to the source of

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Speaker 6: this one, which is coming to a movie, you know,

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Speaker 6: on Christmas Day with Timothy Shallow. A rolling loan gathers

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Speaker 6: no loss, and you know what allows you to roll

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Speaker 6: over those loans extends a credit cycle, and that's liquidity.

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Speaker 6: So this has been a fifteen year long credit cycle.

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Speaker 6: And so you do a lot of things when there

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Speaker 6: are a lot of liquidity in the markets and you

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Speaker 6: extend and you know, things build up and you know,

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Speaker 6: we'll see it's not history repeating. We're not doing CDO squares,

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Speaker 6: we're not leveraging up subprime mortgages. Right, That's why we

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Speaker 6: don't repeat those things because we look at those mistakes

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Speaker 6: and we fix the past mistakes. But looking forward, you

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Speaker 6: always find new ways to find new sources.

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Speaker 8: And Jeffrey thil but the best performance year to date

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Speaker 8: in fixed income has been US corporate high yield US

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Speaker 8: leverage loans of eight nine percent. I mean, do I

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Speaker 8: take that risk going into twenty twenty five? Do I

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Speaker 8: take that credit risk going into twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 6: So we're at you know, almost through depends on which

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Speaker 6: you know, metric you you look back in terms of history,

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Speaker 6: but we're at or close to the tight levels of

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Speaker 6: spreads observed in those markets. So you can take that risk,

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Speaker 6: but you've got to understand what your distribution of outcomes

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Speaker 6: looks like. It's a carry trade, it's an income trade. Now,

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Speaker 6: why are the spreads so tight because corporate balance sheets,

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Speaker 6: corporate profits. You know, despite all the back and forth

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Speaker 6: about what is GDP doing and what's inflation doing, corporate

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Speaker 6: profits have powered through. So with the inflation story, what

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Speaker 6: has happened is pricing power, and so corporate profits really

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Speaker 6: are what are driving you know, corporate risk premiums. And

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Speaker 6: there's one other thing that's really interesting happening in this

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Speaker 6: market about Tom Scurlier. A question in terms of innovation

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Speaker 6: is kind of what you're measuring in the public markets

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Speaker 6: is changing because we're redistributing the balance of credit risk

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Speaker 6: between bank underwrited credit that stays on bank balance sheets,

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Speaker 6: public credit markets that we measure in those indices, and

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Speaker 6: then the types of credits that are being you know,

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Speaker 6: increasingly found underwrited in the.

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Speaker 7: Private credit market.

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Speaker 6: And that distributional change makes some of those historical comparisons

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Speaker 6: a bit different. But the bottom line is spreads are

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Speaker 6: very tight. Could they go tighter maybe, But you should

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Speaker 6: expect that your carry is going to be the best

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Speaker 6: case scenario and that if there's any kind of surprise

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Speaker 6: to the downside, you're going to be looking at some

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Speaker 6: price erosion from spread widening.

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Speaker 7: In the twenty twenty five outlook, what.

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Speaker 9: Does your federal Reserve do on December eighteenth?

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Speaker 6: Oh wow, I think if we pull up the Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: function WRP in Cincinnati, you will it's radio that was

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Speaker 6: that was a radio joke hopefully.

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Speaker 4: Addition, just like you know, see.

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Speaker 6: You, Tom, So, I think it's one hundred percent or

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Speaker 6: ninety nine percent expected. So the FED has kind of

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Speaker 6: backed itself into the corner and doesn't want to disappoint

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Speaker 6: market expectations. But you look at that inflation print yesterday,

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Speaker 6: you look at the ease of financial conditions, Tom, You've

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Speaker 6: seen me say this on every FMC, every payroll meeting.

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Speaker 6: That the disconnect here, and it's been a disconnect for

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Speaker 6: a long time, is the disconnect between the Fed's view

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Speaker 6: of how tight policy is and how easy policy.

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Speaker 7: Is when you measure it by financial conditions and.

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Speaker 3: The ambiguity of our economics. Jeffrey Rosenberg with US with

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Speaker 3: black Rock this morning. Rates go down, it's ambiguous. Does

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Speaker 3: a goose GDP or is it a question of a

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Speaker 3: slower demand?

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Speaker 4: You go down, you get.

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Speaker 3: China deflation or massive disinflation. When you see rate cuts

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Speaker 3: like we see, which of it is it an attempt

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Speaker 3: to goose GDP or a desperation towards deflation.

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Speaker 6: So I think for the impact on the US, the

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Speaker 6: FED wants to normalize and they think that they're tight.

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Speaker 6: I wrote about this at the beginning of this year,

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Speaker 6: and it showed up when the FED finally cut rates

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Speaker 6: by fifty bases points in September, and I called it

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Speaker 6: the new conundrum. Right, So you guys will remember the

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Speaker 6: old green span conundrum. Right, he was raising rates, but

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Speaker 6: long term rates weren't going up. They were going down

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Speaker 6: because back then China was rebalancing, not rebouncing, reinvesting all

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Speaker 6: of his trade surpluses back into treasuries. And we couldn't

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Speaker 6: understand why the Fed couldn't.

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Speaker 7: Control long term interest rates.

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Speaker 6: So I've talked about the possibility that we could see

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Speaker 6: the new conundrum. What's the new conundrum is here we're

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Speaker 6: cutting interest rates in the short end, but the law

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Speaker 6: end isn't responding. That's exactly what happened in August, right,

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Speaker 6: we cut interest rates fifty basis points, the long end

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Speaker 6: went up. And I think when you look into twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty five, right, we've taken down the amount of cuts

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Speaker 6: that the.

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Speaker 5: Fed is expected, but they're still expected to cut.

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Speaker 6: Rates and if they do, and this is what yesterday's

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Speaker 6: inflation print is kind of worrisome, is we're kind of

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Speaker 6: getting into the consensus around this sticky inflation. Okay, so

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Speaker 6: why are they cutting next month not next month, next week?

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Speaker 6: Because they want to support the job market and the

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Speaker 6: concerned about the tightening, So they're showing their hand that

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Speaker 6: there's a little bit of preference for the labor market

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Speaker 6: over the inflation view. Okay, well that's a problem for

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Speaker 6: the rate cutting cycle because you can cut the front end,

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Speaker 6: but the back end may be more worried about that

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Speaker 6: sticky inflation and worried about some of those longer term

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Speaker 6: issues around debt and deficits in the fiscal policy side.

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Speaker 6: So the rate piece could get very interesting next year,

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Speaker 6: where the directionality on the Fed doesn't necessarily create the

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Speaker 6: directionality for the bond market. And remember, most of the

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Speaker 6: bond market returns are going to come from the longer

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Speaker 6: end if you're holding say an AG or a typical

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Speaker 6: kind of index portfolio. So kind of thinking that your

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Speaker 6: returns are going to follow what the Fed is going

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Speaker 6: to do in twenty twenty five kind of like what

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Speaker 6: we saw in October, you know, maybe a tricky and problematic.

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Speaker 7: Way of investing in fixed income.

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Speaker 8: Next year coming in January, we got a new administration

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Speaker 8: coming in, we have a new Congress that canna be seen.

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Speaker 8: Did that change the way you guys think about opportunities,

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Speaker 8: risk reward.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think we're all kind of going

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Speaker 6: through it's that time of year, twenty twenty five outlooks and.

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Speaker 4: Oh no, don't tell me you did an outlook.

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Speaker 7: No, I spare myself the December out of but.

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Speaker 10: Come January we write a here's what we think for

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Speaker 10: this week, so you know, you know, and it's basically,

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Speaker 10: you know, this tremendous amount of policy uncertainty, and which

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Speaker 10: policy uncertainty gets unwound or realized.

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Speaker 5: First, right, and so the problem is the stuff that

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Speaker 5: can be done quickly.

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Speaker 6: Trade immigration is the stuff that has a little bit

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Speaker 6: more worrisome uncertainty for the economic impact, and the tax

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Speaker 6: pieces and the deregulation takes a little bit longer to

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Speaker 6: play out. So you have a timing aspect for how

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Speaker 6: this kind of policy uncertainty unwinds in the first part

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Speaker 6: of the year, and right now no one really knows

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Speaker 6: where that's going to shake out, and it's creating this

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Speaker 6: kind of policy overhang of uncertainty. But you know, what

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Speaker 6: we've seen obviously in financial markets is kind of the

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Speaker 6: post election reduction in the pre election uncertainty that's leading

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Speaker 6: to kind of reduction in volatility, kind of what you might.

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Speaker 8: Call the everything rally. So what am I doing on credit?

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Speaker 8: I mean, you know, I could sit here in a

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Speaker 8: two year at four point two percent?

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Speaker 9: Do I take credit risk here?

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Speaker 6: So you can take some credit risk, And as I

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Speaker 6: was saying in the kind of the earlier segment that

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Speaker 6: the credit risk, you want to preserve some flexibility.

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Speaker 7: You want to preserve some.

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Speaker 6: Ability to change your portfolio because you really don't have

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Speaker 6: a lot of upside in terms of price appreciation. You

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Speaker 6: don't have a lot of downside when it comes to

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Speaker 6: kind of the base scenario for.

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Speaker 7: Twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 6: The economy's doing well, corporate profits are doing well, but

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Speaker 6: you have a lot of that reflected in the price right,

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Speaker 6: So you just don't have a lot of good asymmetry

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Speaker 6: on your side. So you want to kind of start

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Speaker 6: the year with a little bit of flexibility. You can

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Speaker 6: own credit here, but I wouldn't be max overweight into

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Speaker 6: my credit position at the beginning.

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Speaker 3: There's a belief out there, i'd say, in the zeitgeist

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Speaker 3: that the big companies that are riding and high right

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Speaker 3: now won't issue credit until rates come down. I don't

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Speaker 3: buy it. That's a consensus view. Is a big surprise.

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Speaker 3: Next year they're all going to start issuing.

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Speaker 6: So you've got to separate kind of discretionary issuance, which

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Speaker 6: is what I think you're talking about, Like where do

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Speaker 6: corporations have the ability to show some flexibility to remember,

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Speaker 6: like the average maturity of investment grade debt is like

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Speaker 6: seven years, right, so you've got twenty fifteen percent of

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Speaker 6: that debt coming do every year. So there's just this

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Speaker 6: kind of recycling effect where you're getting issuance because it's

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Speaker 6: just part of the natural.

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Speaker 4: But then we'll get an overlay on top of that.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and then the overlay on top of that. You know,

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Speaker 6: you will get some of that because the credit spreads

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Speaker 6: are very tight, so there's very good kind of pricing power,

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Speaker 6: you know, never mind the rate aspect. The rate aspect

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Speaker 6: is a little bit tough for one to time. So

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Speaker 6: it's really when you see kind of issuers pull back

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Speaker 6: and ad is are they getting really attractive issuance on

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Speaker 6: the spread side, and right now they're going to get

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Speaker 6: very attractive issues.

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Speaker 3: Meg seven sends around all the houses their Christmas gift thing,

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Speaker 3: you know, the holiday.

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Speaker 4: You should see the fruitcake CROs backrock. It's just the unbelievable.

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Speaker 8: The fruitcake first calling me, all right, so what's your

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Speaker 8: Where's the best value in the fixing the space today

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Speaker 8: as you think about twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So I think there's value, and there's and there's

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Speaker 6: kind of opportunity, and so I think the value is

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Speaker 6: in the front end of the curve because that's the

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Speaker 6: part where I think if you're gonna see some kind

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Speaker 6: of reaction from the fed's policies in twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 6: that's where you're going to see it, and you're not

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Speaker 6: as exposed to what I was highlighting earlier before, this

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Speaker 6: kind of conundrum risk where fedce cutting rates, but back

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Speaker 6: end rates are really reflecting more long term inflation or

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Speaker 6: debt and deficit issues. Value is tough across fixed income

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Speaker 6: because of the tightness of spreads, So it's really about

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Speaker 6: relative value and relative kind of risk exposure. Front end

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Speaker 6: investment grade there's not a lot of spread, but there's

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Speaker 6: not a lot of risk, so it's kind of.

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Speaker 7: An okay place to be. There's no real kind of.

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Speaker 5: Jump up and down and back up the truck. As

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Speaker 5: I said, before. It's more about.

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Speaker 6: A little bit starting the year, a little bit more flexibility,

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Speaker 6: a little bit more liquidity, a little bit more defensive

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Speaker 6: on how tight spreads are, and then use that to

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Speaker 6: take opportunities.

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Speaker 5: If you know there's some surprises.

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Speaker 6: Which is what we're going to get right, you just

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Speaker 6: can't predict them by definition.

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Speaker 7: That gives you an opportunity to take advantage.

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Speaker 9: Then what are systemic strategies?

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Speaker 5: It's systematic.

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Speaker 8: Systematic is what's the difference? Tell me what do you

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Speaker 8: guys do?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so basically the key of what we do is

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Speaker 6: to exploit opportunities in the cross section, right and and

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Speaker 6: and look at alpha opportunities.

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Speaker 7: Uh and and.

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Speaker 6: What we do is take out you know, so much

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Speaker 6: of what we talk about in the markets is the

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Speaker 6: direction right, our rates going up, our rates going down. Look,

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Speaker 6: the reality is getting the direction right is pretty hard.

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Speaker 6: So if your alpha source, if your outperformance source, is

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Speaker 6: betting on direction, it's it's you know, you get maybe

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Speaker 6: four times.

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Speaker 7: A year to make that correctly.

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Speaker 5: If you look inside of financial markets.

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Speaker 6: Inside the what we call the cross section, there's a

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Speaker 6: lot more opportunities to take advantage of the key driver

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Speaker 6: of alpha, which is which is dispersion, and that's kind

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Speaker 6: of like the centerpiece of our systematic strategy and over markets.

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Speaker 3: Folks, what you just heard from mister Rosenberg is gospel.

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Speaker 3: I can't say enough how wrong the financial media is

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Speaker 3: on this, focusing on vectors out six months they changed

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Speaker 3: like an aircraft carrier turning around in the Mediterranean. And

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Speaker 3: the grind is day by day looking for that differential

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Speaker 3: in price, which if.

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Speaker 4: You're a black rock, you gotta use Greek letters.

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Speaker 9: I mean, you know you went to Cardie email three

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Speaker 9: hundred billion doing this.

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Speaker 3: He named his third kid Epsilon. I mean, what's that about,

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Speaker 3: Jeffrey Rosenberg?

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Speaker 4: Hey works thy, wonderful to have your studio, particularly this

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Speaker 4: was great. It's not like what did the FED do?

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Speaker 4: What about paragraph three? I mean, you know, it's it's

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Speaker 4: just a it's a different Jeffrey Rosenberg.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on

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Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 2: happ or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: There are people that said rates are going up and

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Speaker 3: inflation's not going back to a John Williams two percent

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Speaker 3: too quickly. Jim Bianco out front, Doctor o'larian's done a

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Speaker 3: great job. The City Group, Combine Hollenhorst and that crew,

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Speaker 3: great job and other people that you know, the small brain.

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Speaker 3: I have it without the sake of going. But Lindsay

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Speaker 3: pieg is the one the day after day after day

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Speaker 3: just said shut up, Inflation's not coming down. She's my

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Speaker 3: economist of the year with Stifel. Doctor Piegs that joins

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Speaker 3: us this morning. Lindsay, the global rate cut, the race

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Speaker 3: to the bottom. Is it about trying to goose output

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Speaker 3: or is it a modest panic about is David Rosenberg

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Speaker 3: says too much economic capacity, that there's not enough demand

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Speaker 3: out there.

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Speaker 4: Rates got to come down now.

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Speaker 9: Finally, well, I.

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Speaker 1: Think we're seeing very diverging economic conditions, which warrants different

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Speaker 1: policy for the ECB, the Bank of England versus what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing from the FED. We're seeing faltering growth overseas

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Speaker 1: at a much more precipitous decline and inflation here in

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Speaker 1: the US. Growth is averaging your three percent over the

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Speaker 1: past six months, and inflation is not showing further improvement

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Speaker 1: but rather momentum to the sideways and in some cases

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Speaker 1: an acceleration in some of these key components. So this

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Speaker 1: divergence is very much to be expected given that differential

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Speaker 1: in economic and underlying conditions that we're seeing abroad versus

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Speaker 1: in the domestic economy.

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Speaker 4: Up But Harvard Jason Furman does a great job.

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Speaker 3: He calls it his ecumenical inflation as he combines.

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Speaker 4: All sorts of series.

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Speaker 3: What is your ecumenical treatment of yesterday's inflation report? Can

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Speaker 3: you see a disinflation vector?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think at this point there was not enough

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Speaker 1: momentum to the upside to dissuade the FED from that

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Speaker 1: December rate cut. I do think the committee is going

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Speaker 1: to push through a third round cut next week, given

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Speaker 1: that the increase was in line with expectations. Remember, FED

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Speaker 1: officials have reset the bar for December, saying, as long

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Speaker 1: as the numbers are within our expectations, within our forecast,

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Speaker 1: that's not enough to derail our progress towards further relief

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Speaker 1: for the economy, as long as the economy is still

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Speaker 1: strong and solid but not overheating. So the threshold has

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Speaker 1: been adjusted higher for December. But going forward, if we

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Speaker 1: continue to see inflation at these elevated levels, this lack

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Speaker 1: of progress as we've seen in the core now for

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Speaker 1: the past several months. I think the Fed is on

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Speaker 1: the verse. They're going to be backed into a corner

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Speaker 1: to take that policy pause sooner than later in the

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Speaker 1: new calendar year of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 8: Lindsay, we're going to have a new administration coming in

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Speaker 8: next month, on new Congress to be seated. Are you

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Speaker 8: concerned about some of the We haven't heard much about

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Speaker 8: the economic policies of the new administration, but I guess

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Speaker 8: tariffs are certainly part of it.

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Speaker 9: Tax cuts are part of it.

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Speaker 8: Does that raise materially your inflation concerns in this economy, Well.

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Speaker 1: It certainly raises the risk scenario. We don't necessarily know

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Speaker 1: how these policies are going to impact the economy, how

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Speaker 1: these policies are going to impact from an inflation standpoint,

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Speaker 1: because we can't look at them in and of themselves.

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Speaker 1: Large sizeable tax cuts could be inflationary, but we've heard

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Speaker 1: from the incoming Trump administration they're likely to be offset

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Speaker 1: with large sizeable reductions in government spending elsewhere, And so

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Speaker 1: it depends on how this net plays out from an

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Speaker 1: inflation standpoint. Just like tariffs in and of themselves not inflationary,

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Speaker 1: but if we see the economy engage in a tit

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Speaker 1: for tat retaliatory cycle of consistent increases in tariffs, that

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Speaker 1: then could lead to inflationary pressures. So there's still a

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Speaker 1: lot of question marks, but I think it does raise

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Speaker 1: the upside risk, which in part is why the Committee

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Speaker 1: wants to force through as much policy relief as they

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Speaker 1: can now before they face that potential downside limitation due

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Speaker 1: to fiscal policy restraints.

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Speaker 8: Lindsay r economy's seventy percent services here, how's the consumer

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Speaker 8: doing from your perspective.

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Speaker 1: Well, the consumer is proving surprisingly resilient. We continue to

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Speaker 1: to see consumers out in the marketplace spending on goods

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Speaker 1: and services.

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Speaker 3: Which is wait, wait, wait a minute, Lindsey, you nailed this.

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Speaker 3: Go back six months. How did you guess that the

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Speaker 3: consumer would be resilient? What was the pixie dust where

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Speaker 3: you said the gloom cruse wrong?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think the majority of the analysis was looking

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Speaker 1: at the primary support for the consumer during the pandemic

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Speaker 1: and the immediate aftermath stemming from fiscal stimulus. We pumped

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Speaker 1: trillions upon trillions upon trillions of dollars into the marketplace,

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Speaker 1: and with that stimulus largely concluding the notion was the

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Speaker 1: consumer has to fall off a cliff. We haven't seen

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Speaker 1: it yet, but the consumer has to be marching towards

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Speaker 1: that endpoint. And I thought not so fast, because there's

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Speaker 1: a number of variables that are continuing to support the consumer.

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Speaker 1: During the pandemic, we weren't just buying pelotons. We were

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Speaker 1: also paying down credit card debt. So the consumer's starting

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Speaker 1: point from this de leveraging allows the con zumer to

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Speaker 1: take on a good amount of additional leverage, additional borrowing power,

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Speaker 1: which will continue to supplement the consumer as we've seen.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so bring it forward. We're running out of time,

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Speaker 3: but this is important. Bring it forward to Paul's good

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Speaker 3: cat question. Does the pigs of consumer boom continue?

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Speaker 1: Well, the consumer continues to spend, but at this reduced

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Speaker 1: level of about two and a half to three percent

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Speaker 1: now certainly nothing to sneeze at, but it is a

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Speaker 1: loss of momentum from a more robust pace as we've

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Speaker 1: seen over the past year plus. The consumer is still

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Speaker 1: the backbone, still the bright spot of the economy, but

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Speaker 1: there is a potential for a loss of momentum but

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Speaker 1: that's not accounting for a potential change in policy if

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Speaker 1: we do see sizeable tax cuts or other supports for

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Speaker 1: the consumer from the incoming and minuses.

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Speaker 4: So give me the summary here. The Fed's going to

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Speaker 4: cut rates in December.

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Speaker 3: Do they not cut again until the Red Sox win

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Speaker 3: five games in a row?

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Speaker 1: Well, I can't necessarily speak to that timeline, but the

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Speaker 1: Fed will likely cut rates in December and then stay

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Speaker 1: on pole for at least two meetings. Excuse me, for

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Speaker 1: at least some portion of the first quarter. We're looking

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Speaker 1: for just one rate cut per quarter, totaling three additional

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Speaker 1: rate cuts next year, taking us to three and three quarters.

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Speaker 1: That's three seventy five, and that's a good neutral level

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Speaker 1: for the FED to target we're talking against.

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Speaker 4: Sir Lindsay pigs Is. Thank you so much with Steve

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Speaker 4: for just.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely nailing the growthiness that is surprised all this year.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 2: just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking at Gouda Macunda and you know, I'm doing

441
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 3: selfies with the yel School of Management. And of course

442
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 3: down in the New York Stock Exchange right now, the

443
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 3: President is working the floor.

444
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: It's like you're selling. He's psyched, you're selling takeout at McDonald's.

445
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 4: He's going from Floord toy.

446
00:22:56,040 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 7: You know he's missing here our cash, Yes, exactly, you know, you.

447
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 3: Know art cash it would you know, he'd say, like,

448
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 3: you know, mister Trump, would you like a selfie with me?

449
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 4: And mister Trump would be honored?

450
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 11: Apps so late.

451
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 3: Missed at the New York's docutionings the President elect ringing

452
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,360
Speaker 3: the bell and of course comments made a half hour

453
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 3: ago with the Secretary Treasury Designate.

454
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 4: Assembled as well.

455
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 3: We get perspective on that event and the event forward

456
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 3: known as the second term of President Trump. From Gata Macunda,

457
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 3: Professor Yale's School of Management.

458
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 4: Is this going to script? Do you feel like this is?

459
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 4: I mean, it's not Grover.

460
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 3: Cleveland, Alexander, But do you get the feeling into a

461
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 3: second term? It's working out?

462
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 12: Well, it depends on what you mean by working out.

463
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 12: It's the script, is what I think a lot of

464
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 12: people anticipated and so far.

465
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 4: These comments this morning were sort of on script.

466
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,439
Speaker 12: They were on script, they were normal, and there's there

467
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 12: are certain I would say there are two scripts.

468
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 11: There's the public script.

469
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 12: I'm going to be a relatively normal, mainstream Republican script,

470
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 12: and there's going to make some big changes. And then

471
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 12: there's the other script, which is Pete Hegseith cash Ptel,

472
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 12: people like that, you know, Steve Bannon and Steve Miller

473
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 12: returning to positions of power. That's the other script, and

474
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 12: that one also seems to be proceeding forward. Now, which

475
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 12: of those two scripts will be dominant for the next

476
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 12: four years is kind of the ultimate question that's going

477
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 12: to decide a lot of things.

478
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 8: How do you think this US Senate is going to

479
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 8: deal with some of the more controversial nominations for cabinet

480
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 8: positions by President link Trump.

481
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 11: That's the big question. Opposition seems to have focused in on.

482
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 12: Pete Hegseyth, largely because every week there seems to be

483
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 12: another new Pete Hegseth scandal, and they seem to be

484
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 12: worried that there's more coming out.

485
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 11: It looked like.

486
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 12: He was in a lot of trouble up until a

487
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 12: couple of days ago when Jony Ernst kind of surprisingly said, well,

488
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 12: you know, I'm pretty open to him, clearly in response

489
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 12: to a lot of pressure from the movement. If he's confirmed,

490
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 12: it's hard to see. It's hard for me to imagine

491
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 12: who won't be because given just the number and quantity,

492
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 12: and just the fact that you know, the Defense Department

493
00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 12: employees over two million people, Pete haggs its last managerial

494
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 12: experience ended when he was forced out for mismanagement and

495
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 12: being drunk in office.

496
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 11: Party like this is a problem.

497
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,160
Speaker 12: So if the Republicans are willing to bite the bullet

498
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:10,640
Speaker 12: and confirm him, it's hard for me to see who

499
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:11,479
Speaker 12: they wouldn't confirm.

500
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 3: The book is picking presidents. It was important in October

501
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 3: and into November, and maybe just as important now. I

502
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 3: guess we have picked a president. Like all presidents, he

503
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 3: will become overcome by events. Is Syria big enough where

504
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 3: it's his first overcome by events?

505
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:35,199
Speaker 12: So Siria's huge, and he is going to get, you know,

506
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 12: however isolates you want to be. He's going to get

507
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 12: deeply acquainted with events in Syria. And as Tom Friedman

508
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 12: said that today, countries tend to either in the Middle

509
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 12: East tend to either implode or explode, and Syria seems

510
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 12: like it's in an explode phase, which will.

511
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 11: Certainly ripple through.

512
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:53,360
Speaker 12: But I wonder how much he will his own tendencies

513
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 12: towards disengagement, where we'll push in, we'll sort of say, look,

514
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 12: if there are more refugee flows, that's not our problem.

515
00:25:58,680 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 11: We're sort of stable.

516
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 12: It would be more suspect that the thing will the

517
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 12: thing that will draw him in is Ukraine. Ukraine is

518
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 12: too big to be ignored, and it will just pull

519
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,719
Speaker 12: him in over and over and over again because pressure

520
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 12: to make a settlement that's just not going to come easily.

521
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 12: The two sides are so far apart on what they

522
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 12: would demand that absent Trump essentially forcing the Ukrainians to surrender,

523
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 12: which I cannot actually imagine him doing, just because of

524
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 12: the political blowback that he would feel. I'm not sure

525
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 12: how he avoids getting tangled tangled up in that.

526
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 9: It's been a long time.

527
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:30,959
Speaker 8: I can't remember when we had a president come in

528
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 8: for a second term, not you know, sequential.

529
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 11: Or over Cleveland only happened, thank you very much.

530
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 9: Is this a lane duck presidentcy?

531
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 4: Yeah?

532
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 12: So the analytics that are That's really interesting is we're

533
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 12: seeing a contest of two forces here and the fur

534
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 12: the sort of control of the Republican Party. So one

535
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 12: the reason that Matt Gates went down, the reason you

536
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 12: saw our initial opposition to Pete Haig Seth, and I

537
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 12: think the reason you're going to see a lot of

538
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 12: people who are.

539
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 11: Looking at cash but talent going come on.

540
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,880
Speaker 12: Is going to be that for the first time since

541
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 12: Trump took the Republican nomination in twenty sixteen, Republicans don't

542
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 12: need him anymore, right and need to find as we

543
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 12: need to get reelected. So if he is not going

544
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 12: to be on the ticket in twenty twenty eight, absent

545
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 12: sort of massive changes the constitution, and so they cannot say, well,

546
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 12: I have to live with this or I have to

547
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 12: support this because I need him. That story just went away.

548
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 12: The flip side is his control over the base of

549
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 12: the Republican Party has no precedent. He is more popular

550
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 12: with Republicans than Eisenhower or Reagan. We have never seen

551
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 12: anything like this, and the blowbag of Republicans stand agains

552
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 12: him is very real.

553
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 3: I gotta sum this up, and we've only got one

554
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 3: minute left or a.

555
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: Minute and a half, I got him, Professor, this is

556
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 4: so important.

557
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 3: Apple went public nineteen eighty today on the Bloomberg terminal.

558
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 4: This is from nineteen eighty two.

559
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 3: I had a you know, Grandpa Sweeney bought you one

560
00:27:55,080 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 3: hundred shares, Paul, Yeah, thirty two hundred dollars ape hundred

561
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 3: shares thirty two dollars per share YEP split adjusted with

562
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 3: the dividends of one hundred and ninety six thousand dollars.

563
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 3: Your thirty two hundred is now worth two hundred and

564
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,919
Speaker 3: thirteen thousand dollars twenty percent per year. That's what the

565
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 3: President elect was talking about. Maybe not that articulate Bloomberg way,

566
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 3: but that's the experiment, professor, right.

567
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 11: I mean, if we could all deliver that.

568
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 12: One of my best friends is one of the world's

569
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 12: best selling fantasy novelists, and he bought Apple the date

570
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,120
Speaker 12: when public. I asked him if he made more money

571
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 12: off one of his books are Apple? The answer was

572
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 12: the books. But it's a lot closer than you would think.

573
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 12: But I mean, the basic problem here is we know

574
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 12: that we know that labor markets are sort of as

575
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 12: tight as they can be. We know that the feder

576
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 12: will respond to faster economic growth by raising interest rates.

577
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 12: We see that inflationary pressures have not gone away completely,

578
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 12: and on some basic level, there are surely hard limits

579
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 12: to the US economy that mean that we could possibly

580
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 12: do twenty percent a year. Wonderful as that would be,

581
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 12: I would love to say, see what will really happen

582
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 12: and to me, where that growth dijectory will really come

583
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 12: from is we're looking at biotech and that places in

584
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 12: there that there's that sort of deep technological progress that

585
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 12: has been building for a generation and you're starting to

586
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 12: cebes carve bend right.

587
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 3: We're going to talk about that tomorrow, folks. Tomorrow an

588
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 3: extended conversation with Gene Munster and Dan Ives on this

589
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 3: technology moment that we're seeing across America. I've seen a

590
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: couple of essays here in the last forty eight hours

591
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 3: just saying this embedded you know, not AI, but is

592
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 3: embedded technology lift that we're getting is really quite substantial.

593
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 3: Got a mccunna, thank you so much. With Yale School

594
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 3: of Management.

595
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

596
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

597
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

598
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 2: us live every day on YouTube and always on the

599
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal.

600
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 4: I look at the front pages. It's Salisa MATEO minute. Okay,

601
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 4: take more than a minute.

602
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 13: I went from an hour to a moment to a minute.

603
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 4: Now from New Jersey emailed in and said, you got

604
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 4: to give her less than an hour.

605
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 13: Here we go.

606
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 4: Okay.

607
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 13: I want to start with Netflix because there are reports

608
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 13: that it's walking back it's parental leave policy.

609
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 5: This was in the Wall Street Journal.

610
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 13: So about a decade ago, Netflix announced that it was

611
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 13: offering new moms and dads, Paul, you're gonna love this

612
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 13: unlimited time off in the child's first year. Okay, eights,

613
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 13: But a lot of more staffers took an advantage of

614
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 13: the benefit that they thought. So the Wall Street Journal,

615
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,959
Speaker 13: they spoke with workers former workers who say the companies

616
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 13: spent the last few years kind of stepping back. They

617
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 13: haven't taken it away per se, but they're offering vague,

618
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 13: conflicting guidance internally. The reason why the company's been growing, right,

619
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 13: they now have like fourteen thousand employees, more than sixty

620
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 13: percent jump from both before the pandemic. So so they

621
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 13: have to start making.

622
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 8: It's Wall Street focus on profitability, not just growth. So

623
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 8: I think the company is saying, we need to look

624
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 8: at all of our costs here.

625
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 4: And when your first kid was issued, how many days

626
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 4: did you take?

627
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 9: I had twins in my.

628
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 4: How many days did you take?

629
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 9: I was back on the road the next week.

630
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 4: I took him three days off. Twins cash flow, cash

631
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 4: flow came out, he was issued, and I took three

632
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 4: days off. And granted that's stupid. Let's yes it is.

633
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 9: I'm not saying stupid it was, but come.

634
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 3: On, Lisa, how how long should maternity leave be or

635
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 3: paternity leave?

636
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 13: It's tough. I know. I myself only had three months

637
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 13: and then I had to take vacation days.

638
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 8: So it's it's it's much better, much better.

639
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 9: And like here, I think we have a very good policy.

640
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 13: We have an excellent policy here. And even excuse.

641
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: Me, you want to tell us something here, because there's

642
00:31:58,640 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 3: something we need to know.

643
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 13: I am way past that has sailed.

644
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 9: Next.

645
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 13: Okay, reality TV shows. I'm not sure if you guys

646
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 13: are fans of any reality TV shows, but Netflix has one.

647
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 13: It's called Love is Blind. The reason I bring this

648
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 13: up is because the National Labor Relations broad has brought

649
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 13: up this complaint and it could start allowing them to

650
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 13: become union members. We're talking about the castmates of these shows. Okay,

651
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 13: it gives it because they're talking about different federal legal

652
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 13: protections opening the door to unionization because it classifies as

653
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 13: shows contestants as employees. That's what they're trying to fight

654
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 13: a lot of the contestants have been fighting this. There's

655
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 13: been lawsuits back and forth about this, but it's this

656
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 13: particular show that's kind of starting this and opening the

657
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 13: doors to other shows and saying, hey, wait, maybe we

658
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 13: should start.

659
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 8: One of the reasons that the broadcast networks and the

660
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 8: cable networks like reality programming is it's much lower cost.

661
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 8: There's no script right, there's no script I mean that

662
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 8: kind of stuff. And since there's less advertising revenue because

663
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 8: of cord cutting, that's all you're seeing on broadcast television

664
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 8: these days on the networks are these reality shows. It's

665
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 8: very rare that you see a scripted show on the

666
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 8: networks these days because they're just too expensive.

667
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, Season seven was was really it started slow.

668
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 5: Of Love is Blind, I mean perfect, perfect husband.

669
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 4: But and you know the tables have turned.

670
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 3: But then I love in week two where they have

671
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 3: dirty laundry.

672
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 4: Now I was just agreed. I did.

673
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 13: I have to be honest, I didn't know what this

674
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 13: show was. Apparently like they date one another from separate rooms.

675
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 13: They don't even see one another. They hear it through

676
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 13: speakers until they agreed again and gave me eight o'clock

677
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 13: on t J.

678
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 4: John Ferrell's within the term The Loves, of course, is fault. Next.

679
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 13: Okay, Sports Illustrated coming to a stadium in New Jersey. Okay,

680
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 13: we're talking soccer. They're buying the naming rights to the

681
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 13: twenty five thousand and seat soccer stadium right near Newark.

682
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 13: It's a home of the Red Bulls. Yes, great, great stadium.

683
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 13: I've been there for a game. Thirteen year deal reportedly

684
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 13: worth more than one hundred million dollars. But the only

685
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 13: thing is that it has little to do actually with

686
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,879
Speaker 13: Sports Illustrated because if you know, they're they're owned Bio

687
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 13: Authentic Brands Group, which kind of buys up companies that

688
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 13: are under pressure, sells the licenses for the use of

689
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 13: their names.

690
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 4: Do they still the magazine?

691
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 13: They do still make the magazine. They're just not making

692
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 13: as much money, I guess, But that's why they did

693
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 13: agreed to go with authentic brands because now this company

694
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 13: gives them money because it helps sell off to the

695
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 13: use of their name.

696
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 9: So similar thing.

697
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 8: But Playboy, by the way, just let they did that too, Okay,

698
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,280
Speaker 8: having covered that stock for many years, but it's also.

699
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 13: Owned Sports Illustrate Tickets, and I just bring that up

700
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 13: because now that ticket company is going to be the

701
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 13: exclusive ticketing partner of the team. So that's another speed

702
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 13: What do you got, Okay, nice one. We have the

703
00:34:56,840 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 13: price of groceries sky high. So what's the solution. Well,

704
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 13: there's someone running for New York City mayor. His name

705
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 13: is Zora Mamdani. He says that we should think of

706
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 13: doing uh a city owned grocery stores. That's what it is.

707
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 13: He says it's gonna help bring down the cost of

708
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 13: groceries because they're gonna use city lander buildings, buy food wholesale,

709
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 13: and would also be exempt from property taxes.

710
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 4: On those margins.

711
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 9: I want the city involved in anything.

712
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 4: I don't. I don't get how they do it.

713
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 13: It's Kansas, Wisconsin are doing it. They're trying it out. Yes, Chicago, Atlanta,

714
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 13: they're moving forward with similar proposals, So it's going to

715
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 13: be brought up today. This all right, this Linmaker, Yeah.

716
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 4: The newspaper lines. Thank you so much.

717
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

718
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

719
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

720
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

721
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 2: can also watch us live I have every weekday on

722
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,600
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