WEBVTT - Big Take: Covid Delivers Reality Check To The World 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.479 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:21.840 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, well, we're 0:00:21.880 --> 0:00:24.520 getting some news that at three pm Wall Street time 0:00:24.560 --> 0:00:27.480 today to CDC will have a press conference presumably some 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:31.520 being some reports that perhaps some man mask mandates will 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:34.960 be reintroduced for certain populations. Will certainly bring that to 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:38.199 you later today. But it just shows the long tale 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:41.560 of this COVID pandemic, if you will. And there's obviously 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:44.800 there's regional differences. But let's get the latest with Bob Langreth, 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:47.640 healthcare reporter for Bloomberg News. He's got his big take 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:51.040 story today and Bob again the news today about a 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:55.120 CDC perhaps uh rein instating some form of a mask 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:58.920 mandate for certain populations. Again, it just highlights this thing 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:02.680 ain't going away for all, is it absolutely not? I mean, 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.400 and the US health officials and CDC is going to 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:08.200 be returning reporting to tighter guidelines. They use some masks 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:12.440 and will be advising where fully vaccinated visual individuals where 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:14.679 they're in public indoor settings and places where the virus 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:17.119 is spreading rapidly. So yeah, they are going to tighten 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:19.480 back and kind of dial back that guy and while 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:24.080 still recommending that teachers and students returned to school but 0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:28.360 wearing masks UH indoors. That's what reporting reporting. So they're 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:31.400 gonna dill backs and what they said before, but definitely 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:33.480 on the worldwide basis the kind of this there's in 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:36.559 this tendency. Our report in unit to try to wanted 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:38.720 to clear this is over before it's over, and you know, 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:43.080 and really the virus is to some extent in control 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:45.720 of this, UH and we'll only know when it's over 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:48.360 in retrospex, and it's becoming increasingly clear there's going to 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:53.840 be a kind of long tale to this UH virus pandemic. 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:55.680 While the worst may be over in the US and 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:57.520 New York, we're gonna be dealing with this, you know, 0:01:57.600 --> 0:01:59.760 for quite some time to come. For sure, you know, 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:01.840 of them. I mean it's over for me and Paul 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:06.480 because we're fully vaccinated and uh, you know, the worst 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:08.960 that could happen to us, I guess is the worst 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:11.320 that could likely happen to us, as we get something 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:13.760 that's worse than a cold and better than a hangover. 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:17.000 But clearly there are billions of people around the world 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:20.600 for whom it isn't And what worries me, Bob, is 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:26.800 that the unvaccinated are going to um, you know, house 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:29.960 this thing and allow it to mutate into something that 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:32.959 even me and Paul can't fend off. Is that a 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:37.520 concern among scientists as well? Well, it's definitely a concern 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.840 that they're longer this there's this virus kind of hangs 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:43.600 around and transmitting on you know, just a massive scale 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:46.400 in so many places. The more chances that gives the 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:49.640 virus to continue to mutate into new forms that we 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.799 haven't seen before. And already this delta variant obviously is 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:56.400 turning out to be We've kind of underestimated that deltas 0:02:56.400 --> 0:03:00.320 are very just how transmissible it is, uh, and you know, 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:02.520 it's kind of the perfect variant for a kind of 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:06.240 party vaccinated world. Can you know, just keep keep going. 0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:08.320 But just to be clear, Bob, in terms of the 0:03:08.360 --> 0:03:10.920 delta variant, I mean I was out to dinner with 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:14.320 some people on Friday who were freaking out about it. 0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:17.640 But we were all fully vaccinated. I mean in terms 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:22.680 of the vaccinated, it's nb D, right, I mean if 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:26.880 you're vaccinated, no, no big deal. I mean, if if 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.960 you're vaccine. I just saw stat that ninety nine point 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:33.079 five percent of the deaths are among the unvaccinated. Nineties 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:36.480 seven percent of the hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated. So 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:41.000 the delta variant isn't necessarily um got a higher case 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:47.200 fatality ratio for vaccinated people than the flu. Yeah, so 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:50.760 the case fatalitiator in general, the delta variant. There were 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:53.480 some arguments that there were you know, somehow more subperiable. 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:56.000 I don't think we've seen like any proof of that. Uh. 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.800 And you know, more broadly speeching even though the vaccines 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:01.440 ethics s they're so early reports in terms of eventing 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:04.280 mild cases and those those still could be symptomatic, you know, 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:08.280 maybe saving especially the reports that Israel. What what's clear 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:10.600 across the board is that all the reports are showing 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:14.000 the vaccines are still holding strong against preventing severe cases 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:18.480 and preventing uh, you know, hospitations and depths. But doesn't mean, 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:22.320 vaccines aren't perfect, you don't prevent like everything, but clearly 0:04:22.360 --> 0:04:24.919 they're they're way way better than not having a vaccine. 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:27.040 And we're just going to find out in real time, 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:29.240 you know, just you know, whether some people need boosters 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:32.520 and how long uh, the efficacy lasts. But clearly you 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:34.800 need to keep you know, vaccinating as many people as 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:38.120 possible because that will loose the spread. And you know, 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:40.839 in terms of the mask mandates, Bob, the concern that 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:42.920 we've been talking about with a lot of guests today 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:46.920 is not wearing a mask was the carrot, right, That's 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:49.360 why a lot of people got vaccinated because we were 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:52.160 sick of wearing these masks. And now if you say, okay, 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:55.000 even the vaccinated that to put them back on, that 0:04:55.040 --> 0:04:59.040 presents a problem in terms of removing the incentive for 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:04.160 those you know who are hesitant. Yeah, I guess you 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:07.640 could think of it that way. I mean, um, I 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:09.839 don't know exactly what the new guy into that you know, 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:11.640 come up with. I think, you know, it sounds like 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:13.920 it's going to be something about, you know, in places 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:16.200 where there's just lots of transmission and a kind of 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:18.400 a mix of vaccine on vaccinate that you may want 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:24.320 to wear a mask in doors. Uh but uh, I mean, yeah, 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:26.080 I guess it could be that way. But the other 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:27.400 way you think of it, this is like, you know, 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:29.680 one extra step so that the vaccine is kind of 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:31.520 like you're you're a three point seatbelt. It's kind of 0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:33.400 the main thing. But maybe you know, in some cases, 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:35.680 you know, there's a lot of transmission and it kind 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:38.720 of just may overwhelm the vaccines defenses, and you might 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:40.680 want to add in like a sighting back airbag and 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:43.080 maybe they mask might be the sighted back airbag. It's 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:44.880 just going to add maybe a little bit more, you know, 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:49.320 in extra protection in certain circumstances. But where where are we? 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.320 Where is the industry in terms of these a lot 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:54.800 of these developing countries, um that are you know, not 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:58.960 receiving adequate supplies of doses? I think kovacs and think 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:00.560 things like that. Where are we in terms of trying 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:04.719 to ramp that up? Yeah, well, you know outside of 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:08.000 the wealthier and middle income countries, you know, we're you know, 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:10.479 we're definitely behind. We're not where we need to be. 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:12.599 I think you know, you're trying to look at the 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:13.960 numbers we had in the story or is it some 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:18.440 like you know, dismal. Yeah, the Kovacs initiatives lively just 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:21.440 one forty million doses, so for the one point eight 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:24.159 billion of names shift early two. And you know, there's 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:26.599 one problem, you know, is that there have been those 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:29.680 a lot of uh dependents on supplies from India for 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:32.200 Kovaks and some of those once the India India had 0:06:32.200 --> 0:06:34.640 its own served, some of those supplies that were delayed. 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:37.840 So yeah, it's quite far behind. That means there's like 0:06:38.000 --> 0:06:41.760 gigantic continents that follow people like Africa that has gotten this. 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:44.640 You know, there's just you know, a tiny percent of 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:47.279 the people's accident. And that means if you just continue 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:50.279 to transmit and transmit and spread and spread and spread, 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:52.080 and you know, who knows, no one can predict what 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:54.360 kind of mutations will produce, you know, if you give 0:06:54.400 --> 0:06:57.360 it billions and more chances. Yeah, that's my nightmare that 0:06:57.520 --> 0:06:59.640 these that the unvaccinated are going to be able to 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.240 incubate this thing into something else. And on that note, 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:06.400 we got a headline for Moderna Crossing just a few 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:10.200 minutes ago saying that they're facing delays in producing the 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.000 vaccine outside of the US, and I think, you know, 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:15.960 what what What people fail to realize is you think 0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:18.080 about your hometown, you think about your own state, but 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:23.640 there are whole countries that have yet to hit. So 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:25.800 we've really got to get this vaccine out to the 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.760 rest of the world. Bob blank Breath writing the Big Take, 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:32.200 Check it out on NI Big Take. This is Bloomberg. 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:39.440 Are Brandon Lynn Franco now Director of Economic Indicators and 0:07:39.560 --> 0:07:43.000 Surveys for the Conference Board, And we just had some 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:47.880 consumer confidence data that was better than the street had anticipated. 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:51.920 UM came in at one nine the Index Consumer UM, 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:56.400 the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index came in at one nine, 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.760 spot one. We were looking for one three, spot nine. 0:07:59.800 --> 0:08:03.960 It was also better than the previous reading of spot 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:07.120 three revised spot nine. A lot of numbers there, but 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:10.200 the point is consumers are more and more confident LYN 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:18.000 even as well, certainly UM, the media and governments are 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:21.400 freaked out by the delta variants spread How do you 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:25.880 how do you square that circle? Well, at least for 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:28.960 the time being, the delta variant doesn't seem to be 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:32.280 having a negative impact on consumer confidence. In fact, we're 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:36.400 you know, holding steady, strong and steady, and indications are 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:39.280 that the third quarter is off to a solid start, 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:43.000 so we're expecting another good quarter of economic growth and 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:46.360 consumers expect more of the same in the future. So 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:49.599 both in terms of their current assessment and their expectations, 0:08:50.120 --> 0:08:52.880 I think we're holding strong and steady. Lynn, talk to 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.760 us about the labor side of the equation. That's we 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:58.240 still have a lot of Americans that are out of work, 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.760 yet there are you know, almost a record number of 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.560 job openings out there, and there seems to be jobs 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:06.320 for people who want them. Talk to us about how 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:11.600 the labor market factors into your index, Well, we take 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:14.120 a look at the question. You know, consumers are telling 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:16.640 us right now that they believe jobs are plentiful. We 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:18.920 had a little bit of an uptick in that percentage 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:22.400 from last month. Um, so it's been going in an 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:26.120 upboard trend, and the percentage of consumers telling us jobs 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:28.440 are hard to get held steady. And just to put 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:31.240 it into perspective, only ten point five percent of consumers 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:33.719 in July said jobs were hard to get. That was 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:36.600 at twenty two point eight in January. So we're making 0:09:36.679 --> 0:09:40.000 progress on that front and looking ahead, they do expect 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:42.880 these trends in the labor market to continue. We have 0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:45.520 an uptick in the percent who said they expect more 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:48.599 jobs over there the next six months UM. So that 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:51.559 I think boats very well, and not only for consumer confidence, 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:55.079 but for spending as well. We know that consumers have 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:59.080 saved up or at least on average, the savings rate 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.839 is higher. Are they ready to spend that down or 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:06.880 do you think consumers are still concerned about a future crisis. Well, 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:10.360 we do see a willingness um to spend, right, So 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:14.160 are spending intentions, you know, whether it was for homes, autos, 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:18.240 or major appliances ticked up. I think the flip side 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:20.400 of that is, as we've mentioned, is you know, then 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:23.240 you've got some supply issues at hand. You know, whether 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:27.000 it's a home prices going up and lumber shortages or 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:31.719 you know, shortages of home appliances autos as well. So 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:34.439 there's a willingness there. I don't think the supply is 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:37.880 just quite in line with the willingness, but we expect 0:10:37.920 --> 0:10:41.520 those supply chain issues to dissipate by year end UM. 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:44.000 But it looks like, at least from the consumer's point 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:46.439 of view, they are already willing and able to spend. 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:50.040 So Lynn talk to us about the housing market. It's 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:53.760 been so strong through the entire pandemic, but now there's 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:55.719 I think an issue. You know, there's just not enough 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:59.000 housing stock available. How does how does the housing market 0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:03.440 uh factor into the data that you guys look at. Well, 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:05.199 we are seeing a bit of an uptick in the 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.400 percent of consumers who would like to purchase a home 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:11.360 over the next six months. Uh. You know, but again, 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:13.360 you know, as you mentioned, we're just dealing with sort 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:17.480 of you know, housing shortages. There's a price uptick that's 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:20.679 you know, pushing some folks into the rental market. Um. 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:24.120 So I think until these two get aligned, would probably 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:27.480 continue to see housing cool off a little bit, but 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:31.319 still overall remain relatively strong. I'd like to see. My 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:34.079 dream scenario is that Paul sells his house, then the 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:39.559 bubble bursts exactly, and then I can find one to buy. Um, 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:42.880 what are your what's your take on the virus or 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:45.320 or we already talked about the fact that consumers aren't 0:11:45.920 --> 0:11:48.520 letting the delta variant spread concern them right now, but 0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:51.280 they surely must be on edge. I mean, after such 0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:55.599 an unprecedented time to see things like um, you know, 0:11:55.760 --> 0:12:00.199 mask mandates coming back well, that's sort of is the 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.760 wild card and all of this, right if we begin 0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:07.520 to see some you know, return to restrictions, uh, that 0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:11.600 could dampen the consumer confidence, or it could be very 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.640 sort of localized. So for instance, you know, we've seen 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:18.079 a bit of a downtake and consumer confidence in California, 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:21.840 in Florida this month, while New York hit a new 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.959 all time high. So it could be very localized and 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.160 all dependent on what happens with the delta variant. But 0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:32.640 for the most part right now, it's not negatively impacting 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:35.760 consumer confidence. Heylyn, thanks so much for joining us. We 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:38.719 appreciate it as always getting your thoughts here on these 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.360 data points coming out of the Conference board. Lynn Franco, 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:44.400 Director of Economic Indicators and Surveys at the Conference Board, 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:46.720 joining us on the phone from New York. And it's 0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:48.840 interesting that that, you know, it was Lena's mentioned kind 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.160 of the regional nature of some of the data that 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:54.240 they see some of the states that have you rising 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:57.720 infection rates seeing a little bit of a hit to confidence. 0:12:57.720 --> 0:12:59.880 I guess that that makes plenty of sense. On the 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.040 other hand, New York, who has done you know, quite 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:06.520 well with the vaccination effort, seeing high confidence, and I 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:09.720 think one I think a lot of Americans forget how 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:14.800 big America is. You know, coming from Europe, where a 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:19.120 land mass that is smaller has you know, um, more 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:22.400 than a dozen different countries, it's always shocking to get 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.000 back here and see that, um, this massive country has 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:27.920 always thought of as as as one block, especially when 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:30.400 you're looking at things like consumer confidence or things like housing. 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:34.679 So exactly right, right now, I want to get over 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.439 to William Kai, co founder and partner at will Shure Phoenix, 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:43.959 to talk about what's going on with commodities and I 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:48.120 guess their digital counterparts Will thanks so much for joining us. 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:51.320 Let's talk first about gold, because, um, well, I love 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:53.800 to talk about bitcoin, but I've noticed that gold is 0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:57.520 headed for I think it's first back to back monthly 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:01.160 drop since it's a it's a rough year for gold 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:03.920 eighteen o two and we kicked off the year I 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:08.120 think around nineteen fifty. So um, as inflation concerns build, 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:12.199 why isn't the price of gold? Hey guys, thanks for 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:17.160 having me on. Definitely, I mean gold, Anything that happened 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:19.560 this year is going to tail in comparison to last year, 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:24.040 right went when the COVID pandemic and the monetary and 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:30.160 fiscal policy of the strong monetary and fiscal and politi 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:32.720 has driven the price of gold up. I think currently 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:36.720 gold is in especially the first first half of this year, 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:40.800 in a healthy consolidation period. Look, we think the the 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:44.040 most of the drivers is still price drivers, still in 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:47.840 place to support goals pricing. But the lime light out 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:50.160 spotlight is somewhat shifted from gold, and some of the 0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:56.240 stories and drivers between FFX and US dollars and real 0:14:56.360 --> 0:15:00.320 interest rate has been has been kind of battling terms 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:03.320 of driving the gold price up and down. But we do, 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:05.800 we do believe that inflation is here to stay and 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.480 it's gonna sustain it's price. So let's be patient on 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.240 on the goal price. We think if we tests, if 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:16.200 it's uh, if it's highs in is, it's still possible 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:18.880 in the next several months. All right, So well, let's 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:21.400 talk a little bit about Bitcoin here again. It's up, 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:24.760 you know, up about one percent today, back above thirty 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:28.120 eight thousand. Volatility continues, give us your sense of but 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:30.240 so much for the crash, it's so much for the crash. 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:32.920 It's got that thirty thousand levels a really good support level. 0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:36.640 How do you think investors should view bitcoin in the 0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:42.840 context of diversified portfolio? Absolutely, I mean bitcoin in any 0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:45.240 other market you call it crash, right, but you know 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:47.640 what I was talking about, Gold almost apply here at 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:51.080 the bitcoin in terms of consolidation. Um, it's uh, it 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:55.040 is a pullback. But what's uh, what investors and everyone 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:57.960 should know is that the space itself in terms of 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:03.280 crypto and blockchain remains very strong, and you see continuing 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:08.920 adoption by institutional space. The big banks are finally getting here, 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.400 whether it's goldvin Zachs or JP Morgan and their clients, 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:19.160 their clients is is asking for for crypto exposure so well, 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:24.040 crypto and bitcoin becoming cycles right, um, and I think, uh, 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:27.800 we were will share. We don't provide price targets and 0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:31.240 you know, the long term, but we think there's a 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:35.240 huge long term potential in bitcoin and the crypto space 0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:39.440 as overall. With bitcoin, I get the scarcity issue. Um, 0:16:41.160 --> 0:16:44.080 you know there will only ever be twenty one million tokens. 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:48.560 But a lot of the other crypto platforms which looks 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:51.960 so promising, you know, like Ethereum, I don't understand why 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:55.120 I need to own multiple tokens. Why does it matter 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:56.640 if I own a lot of tokens if I can 0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:59.600 just do everything I want with one on the platform, 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:06.000 so big, I guess to to uh to two points. 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:08.560 First of all, if you're as an investor, if you 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:11.640 want to get exposure to to the crypto space, for now, 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:15.760 getting exposure bitcoin is pretty good because there's still quite 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:21.040 high kind of inch interracorrelation between the different assets. Right, 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:24.520 so you have exposure to Bitcoin, you probably don't need 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:28.440 so much of etherium or light cooin, bitcoin cash and 0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:32.399 all these outcoins because Bitcoin currently is the dominant asset 0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:34.720 and the fell weather for the space. But to your 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:37.680 to your question about why do we need so many 0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:41.680 different different cryptos? There are nuances between the different assets. 0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:46.000 Um crypto bitcoin was created? No, well know that again. 0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:49.600 I'm just saying, like, for example, the Internet, uh what's 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:54.359 it called the Internet? Um? The Internet? There's ethereum is 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:56.760 one platform. There was another one called the Internet company 0:17:56.840 --> 0:18:00.119 or the Internet platform. I don't know. Don't you over 0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:06.119 this alight? In any case system is ipfs potentially, but anyway, 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:10.160 still ahead, My point is you've got these the Internet computer. Sorry, 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:11.960 I don't know why. I just blanked on that. I 0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:15.520 loved the idea of the Internet computer, which was basically 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:19.119 like spreading the cloud around the world, and it was 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:22.919 gonna put a ws and and uh Microsoft out of business. 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:26.920 I love the platform idea, I love the technology and 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:31.160 um the blockchain, but I didn't get why I would 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:34.400 need to own too many tokens. I don't understand why 0:18:34.440 --> 0:18:37.439 I care about owning a lot of ether as as 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:38.920 long as I have one, I can do what I 0:18:39.000 --> 0:18:43.399 want with etheriums technology, right, right, right, But this is 0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:46.159 the same same argument, will be I guess an example 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:49.320 before stocks? Right? Um, you argue, why do I just 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:53.280 need maybe not company specifically, but let's say no browser. 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:55.720 Why do I need a clone when I already have 0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:59.560 Internet explore there each of these different platforms, do you 0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:03.000 pitch himself potentially as different or better or do something 0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:06.000 else a little better? So we do see competition, So right, 0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:08.960 there's a bit of healthy competition. Um, just s liking 0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:12.600 in attech industry and a half different uh intail versus 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:15.480 am D and happy Intail. Why do I an m D? Well? Okay, 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:19.680 they have different slightly different value proposition, different growth and 0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:23.480 funtmentals and support. Hey, well, thanks so much for joining us. 0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:25.760 Really appreciate it. Will Kai, co founder partner of will 0:19:25.840 --> 0:19:28.440 Shear Phoenix, talking a little bit of gold, talking a 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:32.600 little bit of bitcoin again. Gold up just fractionally right now, 0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:36.480 about eighteen hundred dollars per ounced. Bitcoin up again about 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:40.000 one percent today, Uh, three and sixty eight points thirty 0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:46.560 eight thousand, one seventeen four bitcorn Now you were just 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:52.040 hearing about ups from Greg Jared sinking further uh this 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:56.920 morning in the market, UM on its margin forecast operating 0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:59.600 margin forecast for the second half, suggesting it's going to 0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.040 be low. We're then the level seen in the second quarter. 0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:07.720 Alison point Pacqustick joins us. She's director of equity research 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:11.840 for Transportation Industrial Technology over at Wells Fargo. Alison, what 0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:14.160 do you make of the earnings? Hey, well, good morning 0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:16.600 and thank you for having me UM. I would say, 0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:19.920 taking a step back, earnings were solid in the second quarter, 0:20:20.560 --> 0:20:23.560 and even though the margin performance is slightly below where 0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:26.720 we were anticipating, it's a still quite a solid outlook 0:20:27.240 --> 0:20:30.240 for the back half of the year. UM. Keeping in mind, 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:32.880 you know, I would say historically what we have seen 0:20:32.960 --> 0:20:35.720 as sequentially, you know, a lower margin in the second half. 0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:38.119 Keep in mind as we're building to the peak shipping season. 0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:41.000 You know, another thing I think investors are overly focused 0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:43.240 on here is really the slowing of that B to 0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:45.760 see the B t C volume at this point in 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:48.400 the cycle, you know, as things start to reopen here. 0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:51.480 But overall, we believe EPs is still you know, working 0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:55.199 on track UM to deliver what CEO to my had 0:20:55.240 --> 0:20:58.399 put out in terms of that profitability of a revenue 0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:02.520 here for ups longer term. So Allison, where is the 0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:05.280 margin pressure coming from here? Where were they really feeling 0:21:05.320 --> 0:21:08.200 it in their income statement? But you know, we're focused 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:11.280 specifically on the domestic margin and as you can imagine, 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:13.600 as you're delivering for peak, you know, we've all seen 0:21:13.640 --> 0:21:17.159 those signs ups looking to hire for delivery expectations in 0:21:17.240 --> 0:21:19.399 the back half. So I would say partly due to 0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:22.200 your traditional historical peak build up, you'll see a greater 0:21:22.720 --> 0:21:25.960 cost pressure for ups, you know. And also much like 0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:29.600 many other companies that have reported wages have increased rate, 0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:32.560 they're certainly labor challenges that are out there today that 0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:36.280 have been well documented in the market. So UM, in 0:21:36.520 --> 0:21:39.760 terms of the rest of the the industry, we've had 0:21:39.800 --> 0:21:45.040 a really bullish outlook from airline chief executives, but it 0:21:45.080 --> 0:21:47.720 doesn't really jibe with the rest of you know, what 0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:51.199 we're seeing in terms of the delta variant and uh, 0:21:51.320 --> 0:21:53.560 you know talk of masks coming back. How do you 0:21:53.720 --> 0:21:58.439 view the economy the reopening play well with the UPS. 0:21:58.560 --> 0:22:01.120 I would say they benefit both. You know, you look 0:22:01.200 --> 0:22:04.160 to last year in the midst of the pandemic, which 0:22:04.200 --> 0:22:06.399 is another reason why the volumes are slowing here in 0:22:06.480 --> 0:22:09.639 B two C is we were looking to et commerce 0:22:09.680 --> 0:22:14.440 deliver anything local market toothpiete and such. As the economy reopens, 0:22:14.960 --> 0:22:16.399 you know, we don't need to do that anymore, right, 0:22:16.440 --> 0:22:18.760