1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:04,920 Speaker 1: Serving under four presidents from both parties. Alan Greenspan holds 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: the title as the second longest serving Federal Reserve chairman, 3 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: overseeing America's economy through booms and busts from the nineteen 4 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 1: eighties through the two thousands. Growing up the son of 5 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: a stockbroker in New York City, Greenspan studied clarinet at 6 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: Juilliard's School before graduating from n y U with a 7 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,319 Speaker 1: degree in economics. After time at the Conference Board in 8 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: his own economic consulting firm, President Ronald Reagan nominated Greenspan 9 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: to succeed Paul Volker as FED Chair, and he was 10 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: confirmed in August of nineteen eighties seven. Greenspan was subsequently 11 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:40,239 Speaker 1: renominated as FED chair by President Clinton with both George W. 12 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: And H. W. Bush after being replaced by Ben Bernaki 13 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: in two thousand six. Greenspan founded an economic consulting firm 14 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 1: and wrote a memoir entitled The Age of Turbulence Adventures 15 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: in a New World. Greenspan has a new book on 16 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: now called Capitalism in America, a History, which he wrote 17 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: with Financial Times reporter Adrian Wooldridge. He recently sat down 18 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 1: with Carlisle Group co founder David Rubinstein. They spoke on 19 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:10,839 Speaker 1: David Rubinstein's Bloomberg television program Peer to Peer Conversations. John 20 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 1: Kenneth Galbraith once famously said that conventional wisdom is almost 21 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: always wrong. Now, the conventional wisdom today is that the 22 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: U S economy is very strong. I think your view 23 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:24,960 Speaker 1: is that might not be accurate. Is that correct? You 24 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 1: don't think it's that strong? Well, I think it's a 25 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 1: different form of what we call stagflation. It had some 26 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: of the characteristics of buoyancy, but underneath it is an 27 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 1: erosion which ultimately will disable the economy unless it's corrected. 28 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: Do you see any movement to solve let's say, the 29 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: deficit and debt problem. I'd say a lot of talk, 30 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 1: but no realistic movement. And right now we're creating a 31 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: deficit of a trillion dollars a year and uh that 32 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: is being added net to the stock of debt, and 33 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 1: debt as a percent of GDP is rising very rapidly, 34 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 1: and the demographics of the age groups are such is 35 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: that that's going to accelerate in the immediate future. So 36 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 1: if you could wave a magic wand and help reduce 37 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: this deficit and debt, what would you do well. The 38 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 1: question is what's the cause of it, And the cause 39 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: of it is essentially on both the expenditure and on 40 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: the tax side. I actually fully approve of the tax 41 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: cuts that were made, but only in the context that 42 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: it is funded. Otherwords, we went to a very significant 43 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: cut in the marginal corporate tax rate. But you can't 44 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: have a tax cut without finding the revenues elsewhere or 45 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: you running the problems. So the tax cut bill that 46 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,839 Speaker 1: was passed in the first year of President Trump's administration 47 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: by the Congress said, in effect, that will produce three 48 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: or more growth for the foreseeable future. Do you think 49 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 1: three annualized growth is realistic over the next five or 50 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: ten years. No, certainly not as a consequence of the 51 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: tax cut. The tax cut actually did get a buoyancy, 52 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: and we're still feeling some of it, but it's nowhere 53 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: near enough to offset the actual deficit. So there's no 54 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: way around us without coming to grips with the expenditure side. Okay, 55 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: So President Trump called you up and said, uh, Alan, 56 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: you're a great u former Chairmber of the Federal Reserve. 57 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: I need some advice. I wanted to solve the SOUCH 58 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: security problem and the Medicare medicaid problem. What would you 59 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: tell him to do else go elsewhere because you think 60 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: it's too difficult. I think politically we're caught the terrible problem. 61 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: So let's talk about another issue that you've talked about, 62 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: which is productivity. Your point is that we don't have 63 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: the productivity that we should have, in part because we're 64 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: borrowed so much money, and that's squeezing out the money 65 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 1: that would be otherwise available for productivity increases. Precisely, it's 66 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 1: the capital investment which ultimately determines what productivity will be 67 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,599 Speaker 1: in factor. Our equations show that you can explain it 68 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:29,840 Speaker 1: all with the care net capital stock that's built up 69 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: in business, plus uh uh, some measures of educational efficiency. 70 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: But we're not doing it now. Harry Truman, when he 71 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: was listening to his economic advisors, said, you know, please 72 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: bring me a one handed economist, because they always said, well, 73 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: on the one hand, this and the other hand this, 74 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: and he got tired of that. So, um, let me 75 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: ask you a direct question. Can you tell me when 76 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: the next recession is going to happen? Sometimes? Sometimes, but 77 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 1: we've had recessions every seven years on average since World 78 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 1: War Two. It's going to be driven by the fact 79 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 1: that debt is rising dramatically and there's going to be 80 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: some curtailments occurring from that, and it's going to feed 81 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: on itself. What I'm saying, we talk about stagflation. Stagflation 82 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: is something that happened in when you had a situation 83 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 1: where both unemployment and inflation we're high, something which the 84 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: original Keynesian model said was not possible. And we're going 85 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 1: into that type of period now. If you look at 86 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: all the guide, if you're worried that we're going to 87 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: go into recession at some point, um you do you 88 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: invest your money in a certain way to protect against that. 89 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: You can't protect everything. And the point is you can't 90 00:05:54,640 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: forecast a very very accurately. Right now, we've been at 91 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: the extreme period extremely low real long term interest rates, 92 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 1: and they're beginning now to move up, will continue to 93 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:15,599 Speaker 1: move up, and that is going to cause the basic 94 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 1: turn in the market. Are you worried about inflation right now? 95 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 1: I think I'm beginning to see the first signs of it. 96 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,279 Speaker 1: We're seeing it basically in the tightening of the labor 97 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: markets first, which as you know, getting very tight. Now 98 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: we'll be getting finally to see average wages rise, and 99 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: clearly there's no productivity behind it. All productivity increase in 100 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: the last ten years is averaged under one percent a year. 101 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: It's a historic low. Uh not, I might add, it's 102 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: not over your we it's Europe and everybody else as well. 103 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 1: You're getting into a system now which has no outcome 104 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:08,600 Speaker 1: that's and equilibrium other than inflation and low productivity growth, 105 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: and that is not something which says we're going to 106 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 1: have a long term acceleration. So what would you recommend 107 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: that we do to solve the problems that you pointed out? Well, 108 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: the basic problem is fundamentally on the expenditure side, so 109 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: that the issue is if I would say ninety entitlements. Now, 110 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: these are as you know, basically legislated payments to certain 111 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: groups irrespective of what they're paying into funds, and we've 112 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: we've overdone it. Now, the question obviously is, well, if 113 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 1: we've overdone it, why don't we just pull it back? 114 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 1: That is the economic conclusion. It is not a credible 115 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 1: political Now let me shift for a moment. If I 116 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: could to your own personal life and career when you 117 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: were a young boy, did you say I want to 118 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: be chairman of the Federals aboard. That's the last thing. 119 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 1: I could barely pronounce the words. At the time. My 120 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: aspiration was to be a musician, so I went to 121 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: Juilliard for a few years. Your instrument was what I played, 122 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: the uh clarinet, ten of saxophone based clarinet, a little flute. 123 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: But for all of those, you weren't good at any 124 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: of them. To be a really professional, make your whole 125 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: career at that, Let's put it this way. I could have, 126 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 1: but I said, I'll only be clasppy because I sat 127 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: next to a fifteen year old by the name of 128 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: Stanley Gets when I was sixteen. We both had the 129 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: same saxophone teacher, and I said, oh my god, this 130 00:08:54,520 --> 00:09:00,439 Speaker 1: kid is terrific. And I said to myself, Uh, if 131 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: you can't be this could Why do you want to 132 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,839 Speaker 1: be second best? Why didn't you tell him he should 133 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: go into economics and get rid of him. I should 134 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 1: have done that, I thought that I never thought of it. 135 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,439 Speaker 1: That would have been a good idea. So you ultimately 136 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: left Juilliard and you went to n y U. Yes, well, 137 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: I actually is very surprised. I didn't think I was 138 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:23,200 Speaker 1: going to be a good student. I knew I did 139 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: well in math in high school. I did not. It 140 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 1: wasn't absolutely sure how all I would do in college. 141 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 1: It turns out that I don't know that I graduate 142 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 1: summer come Louder. But I had only two bees in 143 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:44,959 Speaker 1: shop and Jim shopping, Jim so so He's and everything else, 144 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: And there was no one more surprised than I. So 145 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: you graduate summer come Loudy from n y U. H 146 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: you've given up your music career. What did you do 147 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 1: when you graduated? Uh? Well, first of all, I went 148 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: to the National Industrial Conference Board for the first time. 149 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 1: I went into the business world, and I wasn't really 150 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: all that interested in it, and found myself fascinated. And I, 151 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 1: at a fairly young age, was like twenty two, was 152 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:21,320 Speaker 1: writing articles for the Conference Board magazine, and I was 153 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: fascinated by I was getting quoted in the New York Times. Okay, 154 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: a very early age. So the New York Times is 155 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: quoting you, and you're in your twenties, and then you 156 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: ultimately became an fact that a well known, ultimately well 157 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: known consultant on Wall Street and on the side, you 158 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 1: become close to or get to know a very famous 159 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: writer named Iron Rand. And what was the appeal of 160 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:49,319 Speaker 1: her to you? What fascinated was her heroes, And when 161 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: I read her books found it. And then Atlas Rugged, 162 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: I was caught up in that science thing which said 163 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 1: basically that, uh, you didn't have anything rational about human emotions. 164 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 1: And I had an argument about uncertainty behind Rand when 165 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: ever since I met her, and I kept saying that 166 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 1: human values are irrational, you know, there not conceptually put together. 167 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:31,560 Speaker 1: And she then proceeded to take me apart, piece by piece, 168 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:36,719 Speaker 1: showing the contradictions in my position. But did you think 169 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:39,839 Speaker 1: she was smarter than you? She demonstrated she was smarter 170 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 1: than and we actually became very close. You obviously built 171 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: a very good reputation in Wall Street because Richard Nixon, 172 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 1: President United States, UM asked you to serve as the 173 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 1: head of the Council of Economic Advisors, and you actually 174 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: had agreed to do so. But then something happened to 175 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 1: President Nixon. Is that right? Something I've forgotten what it was. 176 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: Then Nixon resigned and Ford, as vice president, became president. Ultimately, 177 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: you got to be close to President Ford. But Ford 178 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: lost the election to my former boss, Jimmy Carter in 179 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy six and you went back to Wall Street. 180 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 1: Is that right? You're pretty prominent now as the former 181 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: head of the Council Economic Advisors and then ultimately President 182 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 1: Reagan says to you, why don't you come in and 183 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 1: be the chairman of the federals Ave Board. Did you 184 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 1: meet with Reagan before you accepted the offer? Well, I 185 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 1: actually had met with him quite often during his campaign. 186 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 1: I was part of the Reagan for President campaign staff, 187 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 1: so that stuff. I got to work with them fairly closely. 188 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 1: So you take the job, and you held the job 189 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: for eighteen or nineteen years, eighteen and a half years. 190 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 1: You were called by many of the maestro and you 191 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 1: were given a lot of credibility for the U. S 192 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 1: economy being in such a good shap. Did you ever 193 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: think that people were giving you too much credit for 194 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 1: being such a great maestro of the economy or do 195 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:10,439 Speaker 1: you think they were pretty right? I said, wait, it 196 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: won't last. Uh, you can't. Popularity in Washington is basically 197 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: related to what it is you do, and if you 198 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 1: have no if you don't have a hundred percent control 199 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: of what it is that happens as a consequence that 200 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 1: you're doing you get caught by the fluctuations up and down. 201 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 1: My major concern, and I was cutely aware of it, 202 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 1: as I was getting much too credit, too much of 203 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,839 Speaker 1: the credit for what actually was going on, And I said, 204 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: don't worry about it. It'll come out on the other side. 205 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: In those years, um, people often uh would say, let's 206 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 1: photograph Alan Greenspan walking into the Federal Reserve building. If 207 00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:00,079 Speaker 1: he has a big fat um set of books with 208 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: him or papers, that means he's about to make a 209 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: historic decision. If he has nothing very much, it means 210 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: no historic decision. So was that there any truth to 211 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: the validity of your carrying a lot of things into 212 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: the It was my brief, briefcase, depending whether my wife 213 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 1: made me lunch. So it really was nothing to that theory. 214 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 1: Well everybody knew that, of course. What about the theory 215 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: that you made your key decisions in the bathtub in 216 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: the morning because you had a bad back. You would 217 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 1: take a bath every morning, and that you would write 218 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: notes to people and it would come back kind of 219 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 1: with a little water marks on it because you were 220 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 1: doing this in the bathtub. Did you make good decisions there? 221 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: Do you think? Oh? Of course, And I was. I 222 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 1: was writing speeches in the bathtub. Uh. The backwards is 223 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: still bought. Obviously still a problem. Was quitely on my 224 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: back full time for six weeks by an orthopedist. I 225 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: ran my business looking up at the sailing. All right, 226 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: so you're step down and all of a sudden everybody 227 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 1: in the world wants to get your advice on things. 228 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 1: Was it a shock or you actually anticipated that would happen. 229 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: I was shocked. I was shocked that the price that 230 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 1: they bit up on my first book. I was shocked 231 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: by the fees I was getting U uh pretty much 232 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: for number of years. So things went very well, and 233 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: then the economy collapses, and so all of a sudden, 234 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 1: are people were saying, well, it was Alan Greenspan's fault 235 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: because he should have anticipated this. Did you think that 236 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: was fair? And were you surprised by how much criticism 237 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 1: you perceived at that point? One. I did not think 238 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: it was fair, but I never expected it to be fair. 239 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: And Uh, I anticipated that was going to happen. I 240 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 1: just didn't know exactly when. But nobody forecast the two 241 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: thousand and eight crisis. One of the things I put 242 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: in a second book, I wrote, UH was how the 243 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: I M F missed it, the deserve missed it. Uh, 244 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: you go down the whole series of the major forecasting. 245 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: Everybody got wrong, let's say every every I mean. But 246 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: the purpose was I didn't find that surprise. You can't 247 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 1: have a crisis of that nature that that is not 248 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 1: a surprise. So you look back on your term as 249 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 1: the Federals chair, would you have done anything different in 250 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 1: light of events that happened after you left? Would you 251 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 1: have done something differently enough that I'm aware of now 252 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 1: when you testify in Congress? You were famous for not 253 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: being that precise in terms of being clear clear. Let's 254 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 1: say you were used what I would call fed speak 255 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: because you were off your skating a little bit? Was 256 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: that on purpose? In other words? It was a general 257 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: rule uh at that time that the Federals did not 258 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 1: make public what it was going to do. We do now, 259 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 1: but not not back then. And so the question was 260 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: what ways could I figure around answering certain questions or 261 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: not answering them? And I had I worked up means 262 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 1: to vote vocabulary, which M quite understand. How we're too 263 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: ashamed to say that, don't understand? All right? So it 264 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: was on purpose? Why do you think it is that 265 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: we're not as creative as we were before? And for 266 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: any coming up with new companies and so forth. There's 267 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 1: more to it than just strictly the issue of a 268 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 1: simple capitalist thing. We're getting more and more regulation. So 269 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: let's talk a moment now about your book, Capitalism in America. 270 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 1: One of the key points of your book is that 271 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: we have something in the United States called what you've 272 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 1: called creative destruction. Creative destruction essentially means that entrepreneurs starting 273 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: new companies. But you're worried, according to the book, that 274 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 1: we're not doing that as much. Now. Is that right? 275 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: And why do you think it is that we're not 276 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: as creative as we were before? For any coming up 277 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: with new companies and so forth. There's more to it 278 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:13,479 Speaker 1: than just strictly the issue of the simple capitalist thing. 279 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 1: We're getting more and more regulation. In fact, the one 280 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 1: thing I'm I'm waiting to see the consequences of what 281 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 1: the current administration's deregulation operations are doing, because, ah, what 282 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:41,919 Speaker 1: we show in the book is examples of the extraordinary 283 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: broadening of controls, which ah, I mean people listening seems 284 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,679 Speaker 1: strange to use this example, but to be a florist 285 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 1: or something related which has no effect on human life 286 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,640 Speaker 1: or health. W you need you needed, you need a permit. 287 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: That never was the case. So your point is there's 288 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: too much regulation. What is remarkable about the United States? 289 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: We went up and down? What would have thought that 290 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 1: after the nineteen thirties, UH, that capitalism was shot gone, No, 291 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:30,680 Speaker 1: not coming back, And ironically it got resurrected during World 292 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,199 Speaker 1: War Two, where it was very obvious at the private 293 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 1: sector was what essentially won the war. And UH today 294 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 1: the ownership of capital is not as unequivocal as it 295 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: used to be. The regulation and the UH taxation and 296 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,879 Speaker 1: the culture is not what it used to. The main 297 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 1: point of your book, I thought was to say, we've 298 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 1: had a uni capitalist system, but maybe there's some dangers 299 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 1: that what we've made us so unique aren't going to 300 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 1: be available in the future. Is that exactly right? So 301 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:12,439 Speaker 1: you're now in your nineties and UM, did your parents 302 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: lived to be this age or you have long genes 303 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 1: or mother? So the success other than good genes is 304 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 1: what would you attribute to? It's? Um, eating well, exercising 305 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: a lot, UH, reading a lot of productivity data reports. 306 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 1: What is it that you attribute your longevity product reading 307 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,159 Speaker 1: a lot of productivity data reports is probably What's it? 308 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: One of your great accomplishments we haven't talked about is 309 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,920 Speaker 1: you've been married to Andrew Mitchell for quite some time, 310 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: a NBC correspondent, among other things she's achieved. So anything 311 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 1: you would like to say about your marriage to Andrew Mitchell, 312 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: It's been wonderful, okay? And does she give you advice 313 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,879 Speaker 1: when economic matters? Ever you give her vital media matters? 314 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 1: Ever advice on everything? Okay? Sometimes? I take it. You've 315 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: met a lot of famous people, UH Presidents United States, 316 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:13,160 Speaker 1: heads of state from other countries, UH, finance secretaries, ministers, 317 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 1: secretaries of treasury, secretaries of state. Who would you say 318 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 1: among the most impressive people you or privileged to meet, 319 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: let's say the too smartest, too smartest were got impeached, 320 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon. I mean they, I would say, 321 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 1: on a strictly i Q basis, those two, but they 322 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 1: had other flaws obviously. Do you ever have any regrets 323 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: about anything you did in your career and do you 324 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 1: ever regret not going into private equity? Well, I'm an 325 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 1: economist making money, per se. It's never been my interest. 326 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 1: It turned out that a good full out rule, but 327 00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: it was never my real purpose. We ever want to 328 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 1: rein it yourself as a private equity person, let me 329 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,400 Speaker 1: know you could, you know, learn this business and still 330 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 1: be very good in it. After I run out of economics, 331 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: my problem basically, economy keeps fascinating me.