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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast

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Speaker 1: called Apple Podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast. Let's talk about stocks

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Speaker 1: here with just mentioned, she joins us in the Interactive

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Speaker 1: Broker studio. She is our equities reporter. Folks, if you

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Speaker 1: read anything on Bloomberg dot com or the Bloomberg terminal

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Speaker 1: on the stock market and you're like, wow, this is

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Speaker 1: a really good article. It probably has just mentions name

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Speaker 1: on it. So naturally we had to bring her in

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Speaker 1: and not working from home, no good would be so proud. Um,

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Speaker 1: Paul loves it when people come in and join in

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Speaker 1: the studio. Just tomorrow or starting not tomorrow, what is it?

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Speaker 1: It's Friday, Monday, Monday will be the start of earning season. Um,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot to digest. We just heard a couple

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Speaker 1: of days weeks ago. I don't know, it feels recent.

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Speaker 1: Jabe Diamond with his forty four page letter talking to

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Speaker 1: us about the state of the economy. We've also a

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Speaker 1: few days ago, but since then um or I think

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Speaker 1: somewhere in there, we also have the yield curve in vert,

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Speaker 1: which of course we also know is bad for banks.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot to digest, there's a lot of cases

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Speaker 1: to be made for both upside and downside when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the stock market. Walk us through what we

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Speaker 1: should be watching in the earning space going into next week.

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Speaker 1: This is definitely going to be a crucial quarter, especially

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Speaker 1: for the banks, because it's going to set the tone

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Speaker 1: for the next few quarters, especially because when you're looking

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Speaker 1: at banks and how they're so tied to the economy

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Speaker 1: and the consumer, especially when it comes to their those

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Speaker 1: banks that have their arms with consumer loans to show

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Speaker 1: really how the broader economy is doing, but then also

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Speaker 1: the health of the consumer, and especially when we're seeing

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Speaker 1: inflation at decades high, and especially like you mentioned, Jamie

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Speaker 1: Diamond speaking earlier this week obviously at his letter to

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Speaker 1: annual letter to Shareholders, and he had some bright spots

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Speaker 1: about how he thinks the economy is going to continue

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Speaker 1: to boom, especially coming out of the pandemic, and when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the strength of the consumer, but still

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Speaker 1: noted about certain risks out there when it comes to

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve and potentially raising rates even faster than

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Speaker 1: what analysts have been anticipation it is, and especially because

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Speaker 1: in theory that should help banks as long as the

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Speaker 1: curve is steepening. And so that's the tricky part, especially

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Speaker 1: when you're looking at banks right now, and if you're

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Speaker 1: looking at the k BW which measures the broader big lenders,

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Speaker 1: it's down about ten percent this year, under performing the

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Speaker 1: broader market, with the SMP down about six and so

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Speaker 1: that's key, especially because they should be performing better with

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Speaker 1: rates rising. But we do have that caveat of the

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Speaker 1: parts of the yield curve, especially when you're looking at

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Speaker 1: the two tents, which has historically preceded recessions. Um that

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Speaker 1: happening there. But there was something key that Bank of

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Speaker 1: America did point out and a note recently, and they

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Speaker 1: were taking a look at how while bank earnings growth

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Speaker 1: was about correlated with the ten two years spread from

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Speaker 1: to to basically March two thousand, that correlation actually dropped

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Speaker 1: to just seventeen percent following the tech bubble. So that

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Speaker 1: could be something interesting as far as just maybe that

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Speaker 1: correlation isn't quite as strong anymore as it was once, say,

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Speaker 1: with the nineteen nineties, and maybe potentially banks could move

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Speaker 1: on from some of these headwinds. But again, it'll be

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Speaker 1: key to see what they're gonna say next week. I wonder, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to hearing what they have to say

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Speaker 1: about loan demand and especially the outlook for that in

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Speaker 1: a rising rate environment, right because I know that a

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Speaker 1: lot of banks have already told us loan demand is

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Speaker 1: coming back. But as we see mortgage rates approach five

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Speaker 1: percent um and we hear someone like Jon Hatzis say

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Speaker 1: the FETE is probably gonna raise two or might raise

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Speaker 1: to four percent plus, you gotta wonder how much demand

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Speaker 1: consumers are gonna be are going to have for loans exactly.

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Speaker 1: And we're already starting to see signs where certain home

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Speaker 1: sellers are trying to potentially drop some of their the

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Speaker 1: prices when they're trying to negotiate because of what we've

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Speaker 1: seen recently with mortgage rates going up, and obviously we

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Speaker 1: know very well during the pandemic the bidding wars that

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Speaker 1: have been going on, and especially with the low amount

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Speaker 1: of inventory, and that was a problem even well before

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Speaker 1: the pandemic. I just want to say I got my

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Speaker 1: house below ask below ask February closed, locked in a

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Speaker 1: rate at three point to five percent. I'm pretty stoked

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Speaker 1: that roller coaster will follow, just as they as they

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Speaker 1: viewer an observer of Matt House journey anyways continue Just yeah,

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Speaker 1: I have a plenty of friends right now that are

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Speaker 1: they're still struggling with that, and it wasn't it wasn't. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: And I have friends back home in Texas where they

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Speaker 1: thought that, hey, it's going to be cheaper to live here,

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Speaker 1: and they're still having issues trying to find home. So

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Speaker 1: that's going to be key, especially like you're mentioning with

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Speaker 1: the banks. But another thing too is when we're looking

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Speaker 1: at they have so many different arms, and when you're

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Speaker 1: looking at specifically, say their trading arms. I mean, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: had a story earlier that took a look at Goldman

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Speaker 1: and how markets are. Basically they're implying the there's a

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Speaker 1: low risk of a recession when you're seeing what Goldman

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Speaker 1: strategies are talking about. But also Goldman traders making about

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Speaker 1: three hundred million on inflation in the first quarter, So

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Speaker 1: that'll be another key looking beyond not just what's happening

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Speaker 1: with loan growth, but looking at their trading arms and

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Speaker 1: seeing what's happening there and the types of bets they're making,

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Speaker 1: specifically on inflation. Right. Uh, it's interesting. Had predicted, I

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Speaker 1: think March eleven that we had a thirty five percent

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Speaker 1: chance of recession in the next year, and I thought

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Speaker 1: that felt really low at the time. Now um an

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Speaker 1: m Live survey came out yesterday showing that out of

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Speaker 1: five hundred and twenty five participants, almost half expected a

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Speaker 1: recession next year's I think the probability is rising. And

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Speaker 1: next time we have you on, let's talk about what

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Speaker 1: happens to stocks when you're looking at an imminent recession,

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Speaker 1: because I know they don't sell off right away, just

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Speaker 1: like they don't sell off right away after the yield curve.

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Speaker 1: Just meant from Bloomberg News, thanks very much for joining

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Speaker 1: us kind, Laura. There's a very real possibility. I keep

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Speaker 1: hearing that Marine Lapin or some ultra right candidate could

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Speaker 1: win the presidential election in France this weekend. Fill us in. Well,

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Speaker 1: the pole that's converging and they basically neck and neck.

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Speaker 1: Now the two main candidates, the pen and Matt And

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Speaker 1: essentially this runoff is going to take place in two

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Speaker 1: weeks and main crisis facing the French economy is the

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Speaker 1: cost living. Lapin she wants to back away from NATO.

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Speaker 1: She's the nationalist candidate, while Macron he represents were of

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Speaker 1: the cosmopolitan citizens of France and the pen interestingly looks.

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Speaker 1: She wants French law to priority over EU law. She

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Speaker 1: wants to reduce the retirement age for those that started

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Speaker 1: working earlier. Matt Crownin he wants to raise the retirement age.

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Speaker 1: That's not really going to sit well with the electorate here.

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Speaker 1: And he wants to cut inheritance tax. But it's heating

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Speaker 1: up and it's the first round taking place on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Hang On. He wants to reduce inheritance tax. He's a

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Speaker 1: very unFrench policy. You might say, it's just in general,

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Speaker 1: you never hear about people cutting taxes. That's that's great,

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Speaker 1: Go France. Uh maths about to go move to France

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Speaker 1: if that happens. Um, well, I have nothing to inherit actually,

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Speaker 1: I just you know what I will say, um, and

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Speaker 1: my opinion doesn't matter at all, but I feel like

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Speaker 1: inheritance taxes one of the best ones, because that's like

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Speaker 1: a great equalizer, right, everybody starts on the same level

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Speaker 1: playing field. If you take away the wealth of those

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Speaker 1: who are just born with it, income taxes the worst

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Speaker 1: because you work to earn that money and then the

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Speaker 1: government takes it away. Um, but I could be my

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Speaker 1: own income tax. That's what Lapan is coming. Of course,

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Speaker 1: it's quite popular right now. She's tackling the cost of

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Speaker 1: living crisis, and one of our policies is that if

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Speaker 1: you're understand, you won't pay any income tax. Interesting, Laura

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Speaker 1: talks to us a little bit about the market side

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Speaker 1: of this, because we've seen French bonds not do so great.

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Speaker 1: We've seen French stocks also lag this week, and really

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Speaker 1: is clear that it isn't just the weather that's a

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Speaker 1: little bit gloomy in Paris right now. Talk to us

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Speaker 1: a little bit about the impact in terms of let's say,

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Speaker 1: if if Lapen is actually elected, well, there we're already

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Speaker 1: seeing a nervousness in market because about sale risk. The

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Speaker 1: cat forty down almost two percent over the US three days.

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Speaker 1: Market would have to adjust, so would probably be an

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Speaker 1: initial sell off, but would it lead to any long

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Speaker 1: term economic damage. Probably not. If there's a mac Corn win,

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Speaker 1: it's a continuation of the modus operandi in what is

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Speaker 1: your second biggest economy. What's interesting here to me is

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Speaker 1: also the impact that Ukraine has on France, right, because

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Speaker 1: we hear constantly about Germany and the impact that the

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Speaker 1: entire grass supply has on Germany specifically, but France is

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Speaker 1: quite exposed as well. Can you just illustrate, especially for

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Speaker 1: our American audience, um A K A me, who isn't

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Speaker 1: that well read in terms of France, walk us through

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Speaker 1: the economic hit right now that France is taking off

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Speaker 1: the back of the war in Ukraine. Food rice inflation

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Speaker 1: is huge, right, it was just today with the world

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Speaker 1: treat prices reaching another record according to the UN Food Agency.

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Speaker 1: Food is a symbol of French culture and right now,

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Speaker 1: of course all the French newspapers you're seeing the phrase

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Speaker 1: laprouvoi de shap basically the cost of living. So but

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Speaker 1: what were the war in Ukraine is doing to the

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Speaker 1: French economy. It is making businesses and individuals thinking about

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Speaker 1: their purchasing power and where that stands. And that is

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Speaker 1: what it seems a priority over the war in Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: because unless the purchasing power issue can be resolved, then

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Speaker 1: the French beliefs war in Ukraine will not be either. Wow,

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Speaker 1: they I guess maybe they don't feel the sense of responsibility.

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Speaker 1: I assume that they would, especially after World War Two,

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Speaker 1: not to appease Um someone like Ladimir Putin. But do

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Speaker 1: they see it very differently Makran and la pen Um.

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Speaker 1: Do they both approach Putin in different ways? Because Macron

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Speaker 1: has been talking to the Russian leader quite a lot,

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Speaker 1: but I thought Lapin had been had been friendly with

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Speaker 1: Putin as in the past. Well, they both want to

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Speaker 1: extend in all the branch in a way. Lapin had

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Speaker 1: the history of wanting to collaborate with Russia, even she's

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Speaker 1: on the far right side, but see that as more

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Speaker 1: important than ignoring the former Soviet Union. For matc goring

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Speaker 1: the reason why he extended a hand to Russia, the

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Speaker 1: French of different intelligence to the United States and the

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Speaker 1: United Kingdom. It's one of the reasons why he's dropping

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Speaker 1: in the polls. He's now coming across a week rather

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Speaker 1: than statesmanlike. So, if anything, we're rot in Russia right now,

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Speaker 1: probably more embarrassing from that one than it is. Full

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Speaker 1: of pen Laura, talk us a little bit about the

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Speaker 1: read through into the American side of it, the American economy.

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Speaker 1: Why should folks here care about what's going on in France? Well,

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Speaker 1: the United States is France's seventh largest largest trading partner.

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Speaker 1: And if we see Matt gorn reelected, you know that

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Speaker 1: post of relationship will continue, will Bidens president. That said,

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Speaker 1: if we do see a far right candidate such as

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Speaker 1: Lapen elected in two weeks time, if Biden is not

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Speaker 1: elected in the next US presidential election, it's kind of circumstantial, right,

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Speaker 1: So it doesn't necessarily mean we will see a deterioration

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Speaker 1: in the relationship that both developed economies. The US the

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Speaker 1: most powerful economy in the world. Sarn't the second largest

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Speaker 1: economy in Europe, so that relationship will remain in place.

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Speaker 1: It's just the semantics may change. Laura, Thanks very much,

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Speaker 1: Laura right, joining us out of Paris on the French election.

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Speaker 1: That's Sunday, and I thank goodness, Laura writes inside. At

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Speaker 1: least she sounds much warmer and drier than Francine Laqui.

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Speaker 1: This morning. She's sitting on a rooftop in blustery Paris.

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Speaker 1: Carolyn Connen as well, covered in cold rain just watching her.

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Speaker 1: Maybe want to take a hot bath. In any case,

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Speaker 1: Thanks very much, Laura. Right. Hans Olsen joins us right now.

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Speaker 1: He's the chief investment officer at Fiducieri Trust Company. Hans,

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Speaker 1: what do you think about UM? It seems like the

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Speaker 1: market must be taking SOMA because there's so many risks,

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Speaker 1: there's so many headwinds. UM. Geo political, I mean, tension

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Speaker 1: is such an understatement. Why are we looking at a

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Speaker 1: VIX of only twenty one. Yeah, there's high matt It.

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Speaker 1: It does seem as if the market is kind of

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Speaker 1: whistling past the graveyard when you looked at look at

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Speaker 1: all that's going on, and especially if you compare the

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Speaker 1: VIX to the move right, So the bond market seems

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Speaker 1: to be saying one thing and the equity market exactly

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Speaker 1: the opposite. UM. I think investors have become somewhat complacent

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Speaker 1: around this. It would not surprise me at all to

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Speaker 1: see US retest our prior lows of earlier in the

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Speaker 1: year as it becomes apparent that the Federal Reserve is

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Speaker 1: deadly serious about getting a grip on inflation. Talks us

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Speaker 1: a little bit about the signals here because I'm confused

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Speaker 1: about I think when you're saying that the VIX and

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Speaker 1: the move are on two different pages, so I'm confused.

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Speaker 1: Then which market has it right? Is the bond market

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Speaker 1: or is it the stock market? I think the bond

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Speaker 1: market has it right this time. I think the stock

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Speaker 1: market people have become so inured to UM, you know

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Speaker 1: these adverse events, UM, and that you know you buy

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Speaker 1: the dip, always buy the dip. And it's been a

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Speaker 1: strategy that has worked really well over the last ten years.

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Speaker 1: But what I'm not sure that it is it reflects,

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Speaker 1: is is this changing regime. We have a real inflation problem.

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Speaker 1: And if anybody who is trying to to wrap their

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Speaker 1: head around just how deep these issues are, Augustin Carsten's,

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Speaker 1: who is the head of the Bank for International Settlement,

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Speaker 1: a couple of nights ago in Geneva, gave a great

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Speaker 1: speech that isn't that's been posted on their website about

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Speaker 1: just just how difficult these these issues are and how

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Speaker 1: likely they're going to last longer and be more difficult

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Speaker 1: to resolve. So I don't think the equity more it

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Speaker 1: has um engaged with this issue the way it needs to.

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Speaker 1: Is is it a different world, Hans. You know, I've

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Speaker 1: been talking to you for at least ten or fifteen years,

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Speaker 1: and I'm and I'm grateful for your insight. Um. Is

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Speaker 1: it Is it different now that you know, post kind

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Speaker 1: of pandemic, post meme stock craziness. Um, in this era

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Speaker 1: of inflation, everyone's looking at commodities. Is it a different world?

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Speaker 1: You know? Man? If if you look at the performance

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Speaker 1: of the s if you break it down sort of

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Speaker 1: that that first level down, uh, and you look at

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Speaker 1: how energy has performed this year, the conclusion that you

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Speaker 1: would make is that energy is the new tech, right,

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Speaker 1: because it's certainly acting like that. UM. And I do

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Speaker 1: think that there is UM, there is a new regime unfolding.

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Speaker 1: So if we start to get a real price of

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Speaker 1: money them, you know, the pricing models that one uses,

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Speaker 1: like these really long duration equities, high expectation it is,

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Speaker 1: low profits, they start to act very differently. When you

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Speaker 1: have a price of money that starts to emerge that is, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, above the rate of inflation. So you come

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Speaker 1: back to sort of the first principles of investing again.

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Speaker 1: I think. All right, Hans, great to get your take.

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us. Today. Hans Olsen there,

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Speaker 1: he's the chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust. Right now,

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Speaker 1: let's get to Marry Ellen is gandarian. She joins us,

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Speaker 1: the CEO and president of Women's World Banking, UM, to

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Speaker 1: talk to us about. Uh, there's nothing micro about a

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Speaker 1: billion Women. UM. That's her new book, Making Finance Work

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Speaker 1: for Women. How far have we come? Uh, Maryann, I'm

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Speaker 1: sure not far enough, but it seems to me, at

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Speaker 1: least in my twenty year career, we've made some serious strides. UM. Well,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much for for having me on on

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Speaker 1: the program. UM. I guess you know, it really depends

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Speaker 1: on which way you're you're looking, certainly in terms of

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Speaker 1: women as bankers and women in decision making roles in

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Speaker 1: both UM, you know, private sector banks as well as

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Speaker 1: regulatory agencies. Absolutely, we've made progress, and you know good

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Speaker 1: that we have, because the data is really quite quite

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Speaker 1: clear that if you have even just one woman on

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Speaker 1: the board of a regulatory agency, that entire financial system

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Speaker 1: is tends to show more stability, tends to have less

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Speaker 1: risk taking in it. You saw coming out of the

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Speaker 1: financial crisis, UM banks that had women on their boards

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Speaker 1: and senior management did come through that crisis and better healthier,

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Speaker 1: more solvent shapes than those that did not. But in

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Speaker 1: terms of women and the women that my organization Women's

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Speaker 1: World Banking serves and that I wrote about in the book,

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Speaker 1: you know, there's just been this very persistent, dogged gender

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Speaker 1: gap between the access to finance that women um have

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Speaker 1: and what men have, and it's just been it's a

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Speaker 1: really frustrating number that never seems to budge. In the

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Speaker 1: emerging markets, there's this sort of steady nine percent gap

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Speaker 1: that even as men gained greater access through digital technology,

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Speaker 1: women just seem to continue to lag behind. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: there are two separate things here, right, So we're talking

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Speaker 1: about on the one hand, uh, I think of women

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Speaker 1: in finance, then I think automatically of the women who

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Speaker 1: are running Wall Street. And but there's also, um, the

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Speaker 1: narrative I think ten or fifteen years ago when this

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Speaker 1: whole micro um finance thing started, was that we need

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Speaker 1: to get money into the hands of women. And and

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Speaker 1: you're saying, especially there there's still uh, um, there's still

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Speaker 1: a lag in terms of um, what we what we

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Speaker 1: can do, and what we've done right and and you know,

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Speaker 1: and you put it well, because that really was the

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Speaker 1: kind of pun if you will, of the of the

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Speaker 1: title of my book, that that while you know, women

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Speaker 1: basically built the microfinance industry, you know you had anywhere

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Speaker 1: from you know, nine three repayment terms, repayment rates on

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Speaker 1: loans that were made to women buy microfinance institutions that

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Speaker 1: we did some work both here it Wasen's World Banking

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Speaker 1: and then some professors at n y U looked at

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Speaker 1: those microfinance institutions that had more than I think it

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Speaker 1: was sixty percent of their client basis, women consistently outperformed

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Speaker 1: those that had men. But you know why, why were

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Speaker 1: women just relegated to sort of small unsecured loans. It's

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Speaker 1: the only thing your bank ever gave you was a

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Speaker 1: small loan. You need plenty more products. You'd need up

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Speaker 1: savings account, you need to be able to make affordable,

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Speaker 1: convenient payments. You'd need insurance to make sure that all

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Speaker 1: your great achievements weren't weren't lost but a sudden illness

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Speaker 1: or some other you know, natural disaster to your home.

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Speaker 1: So it really he takes more than just that micro loan.

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Speaker 1: As good as that was for women, and as well

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Speaker 1: as what poor women performed when they received those loans.

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Speaker 1: It really takes a much broader range of financial services

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Speaker 1: to be truly you know what we call included financially included.

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Speaker 1: Mary Ellen, take a possibly quickly. I just want to

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Speaker 1: mention a quick headline that is crossing the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 1: The former Goldman banker who just trying to June Grass,

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Speaker 1: Roger ang is found guilty in the one m dB

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Speaker 1: fraud scheme. So we will of course bring you the

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Speaker 1: latest on that there are anymore headlines, but just letting

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Speaker 1: our audience know that he is indeed found guilty of

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Speaker 1: bribery and money laundering in that one and and dB case.

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Speaker 1: Mary Ellen, coming back to you here, I think it's

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Speaker 1: fascinating to talk about women in this industry. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about what else can be done. What is your recommendation

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Speaker 1: from here quickly? Well, that's that's sort of the other

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Speaker 1: part of my book. It's not like I'm asking, you know,

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Speaker 1: great charitable effort to be made. There's some really compelling

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Speaker 1: data that's showing there's money to be made when financial

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Speaker 1: service providers really explore products that meet women's needs. You know,

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Speaker 1: you've got a billion women who were completely unserved, but

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Speaker 1: then maybe another close to a billion that don't have

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Speaker 1: that full access to products and services. We estimate, you know,

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Speaker 1: you can have fifty billion dollars more premium income every

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Speaker 1: single year if life insurance were made available to women

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Speaker 1: on the same basis that it's made and and that's

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Speaker 1: the key when you can really can make money off

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Speaker 1: at Mary Allen Is Condarian Is Candarian, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for joining US Women's World Banking. Thanks for listening

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Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen

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Speaker 1: to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

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Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three.

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Speaker 1: Put on false Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney

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Speaker 1: Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. M