1 00:00:15,370 --> 00:00:27,930 Speaker 1: Pushkin. It would be hard to think of a better 2 00:00:28,010 --> 00:00:33,010 Speaker 1: example of a game of chance than roulette. Beneath the 3 00:00:33,130 --> 00:00:37,090 Speaker 1: romantic French terminology and the myriad rules of etiquette, each 4 00:00:37,250 --> 00:00:41,250 Speaker 1: spin of the roulette wheel is utterly random. The casino's 5 00:00:41,290 --> 00:00:46,610 Speaker 1: advantage is small that it cannot be overcome. The game 6 00:00:47,010 --> 00:00:51,010 Speaker 1: is remorseless over the long haul. The only way to 7 00:00:51,050 --> 00:00:55,970 Speaker 1: win is not to play, or is it? One day 8 00:00:56,130 --> 00:01:00,930 Speaker 1: in August nineteen sixty one, Claude and Betty Shannon stroll 9 00:01:01,050 --> 00:01:03,850 Speaker 1: up to a roulette table in Las Vegas, pretending not 10 00:01:03,930 --> 00:01:07,930 Speaker 1: to know their companions, Ed and Vivian Thorpe. Claude and 11 00:01:07,970 --> 00:01:10,690 Speaker 1: the ladies a nerve us, but they don't show it. 12 00:01:11,530 --> 00:01:15,970 Speaker 1: Ed Thorpe isn't nervous, he's excited. He's still in his twenties, 13 00:01:16,330 --> 00:01:20,130 Speaker 1: but he's an old hand in the casinos. Claude Shannon 14 00:01:20,290 --> 00:01:23,650 Speaker 1: stands right by the wheel. He's forty five years old, 15 00:01:23,970 --> 00:01:27,530 Speaker 1: slim and good looking, with fine cheekbones and dark eyebrows. 16 00:01:28,410 --> 00:01:31,850 Speaker 1: He's misdirecting the attention of the floor manager by scribbling 17 00:01:31,890 --> 00:01:35,130 Speaker 1: down numbers. He looks like he's got some crazy system 18 00:01:35,210 --> 00:01:38,930 Speaker 1: that will inevitably bankrupt him. Thorpe is at the other 19 00:01:39,050 --> 00:01:41,450 Speaker 1: end of the table, far from the wheel and far 20 00:01:41,530 --> 00:01:45,290 Speaker 1: from Shannon. He has dark hair, a round face, and 21 00:01:45,370 --> 00:01:49,050 Speaker 1: a smile. He's having fun placing his bets with the 22 00:01:49,050 --> 00:01:52,850 Speaker 1: confidence of a man who knows the unbeatable game is 23 00:01:52,890 --> 00:01:57,010 Speaker 1: about to be beaten. This is a defining moment in 24 00:01:57,010 --> 00:02:00,290 Speaker 1: a project that has been quietly ticking over for a year. 25 00:02:00,850 --> 00:02:04,090 Speaker 1: When it began, Thorpe and Shannon didn't know each other. 26 00:02:05,050 --> 00:02:10,330 Speaker 1: Edward O'thorpe was a junior mathematics instructor at MIT. Claude 27 00:02:10,330 --> 00:02:15,130 Speaker 1: Shannon was the greatest computer scientist in the world. Ed 28 00:02:15,210 --> 00:02:18,370 Speaker 1: Thorpe had a plan to beat Roulette, and he needed 29 00:02:18,450 --> 00:02:22,930 Speaker 1: Shannon to help him. Systems to beat Roulette are like 30 00:02:23,090 --> 00:02:27,050 Speaker 1: blueprints for perpetual motion machines or formulas to turn lead 31 00:02:27,090 --> 00:02:32,010 Speaker 1: into gold. They're absurd, the pseudo scientific obsessions of Cranks 32 00:02:32,610 --> 00:02:36,890 Speaker 1: and Claude. Shannon's secretary had already warned Thorpe that Professor 33 00:02:36,930 --> 00:02:40,010 Speaker 1: Shannon doesn't spend time on topics or people that don't 34 00:02:40,050 --> 00:02:44,410 Speaker 1: interest him. Shannon was a legendary figure. People in his 35 00:02:44,530 --> 00:02:48,850 Speaker 1: field talked about Shannon the way physicists talk about Albert Einstein. 36 00:02:49,450 --> 00:02:53,210 Speaker 1: What ed Thorpe was doing was much like buttonholing Einstein 37 00:02:53,250 --> 00:02:56,370 Speaker 1: and saying, Hey, Albert, I've got a sure fire scheme 38 00:02:56,410 --> 00:03:00,730 Speaker 1: for beating the bookies at the racetrack. An unknown young mathematician, 39 00:03:01,250 --> 00:03:07,610 Speaker 1: a patently futile goal, Claude Shannon, the computing legend, didn't hesitate. 40 00:03:09,130 --> 00:03:12,530 Speaker 1: Take a seat. He said to Ed Thorpe. We have 41 00:03:12,610 --> 00:03:18,770 Speaker 1: a lot to talk about. I'm Tim Harford. You're listening 42 00:03:19,050 --> 00:03:46,450 Speaker 1: to cautionary tales. Repeat. Please please some floora for the present. 43 00:03:46,730 --> 00:03:49,650 Speaker 1: How do you receive? Send floa? Please see if you 44 00:03:49,690 --> 00:03:53,730 Speaker 1: can read this? Can you read this? Yes? How are signals? 45 00:03:54,130 --> 00:03:57,930 Speaker 1: Do you receive? Please send something? Please send bes and bees? 46 00:03:58,250 --> 00:04:04,290 Speaker 1: How our signals? Those messages from eighteen fifty eight represent 47 00:04:04,410 --> 00:04:09,250 Speaker 1: a full day of attempted conversation via Morse code who 48 00:04:09,290 --> 00:04:12,290 Speaker 1: were cable lying three miles under the surface of the 49 00:04:12,330 --> 00:04:17,850 Speaker 1: Atlantic Ocean. The cable had been enormously expensive, and, as 50 00:04:17,850 --> 00:04:22,490 Speaker 1: he might guess, it wasn't really working. In an attempt 51 00:04:22,610 --> 00:04:26,290 Speaker 1: to boost the signal, the project's engineer, a man called 52 00:04:26,370 --> 00:04:31,330 Speaker 1: Wildman white House, cranked up the voltage. The cable melted. 53 00:04:32,690 --> 00:04:37,490 Speaker 1: It had survived only twenty eight days. Over the years, 54 00:04:37,690 --> 00:04:40,970 Speaker 1: telegraph engineers figured out how to work around the problem 55 00:04:40,970 --> 00:04:43,850 Speaker 1: of noise on the line. They built stronger cables with 56 00:04:43,970 --> 00:04:47,370 Speaker 1: better insulation and more sensitive detectures at the far end. 57 00:04:48,170 --> 00:04:52,010 Speaker 1: But nobody fully solved the problem of noise. Nobody even 58 00:04:52,090 --> 00:04:57,250 Speaker 1: fully understood it. Not until nearly a century later, along 59 00:04:57,330 --> 00:05:03,050 Speaker 1: came Clawed Shannon. Shannon's career was defined by two thunderbolts 60 00:05:03,050 --> 00:05:06,810 Speaker 1: of insight. When he was twenty one in nineteen thirty eight, 61 00:05:07,050 --> 00:05:11,090 Speaker 1: his master's thesis showed that any logical statement could be 62 00:05:11,130 --> 00:05:15,450 Speaker 1: evaluated by a machine, with true or false being represented 63 00:05:15,450 --> 00:05:19,850 Speaker 1: by switches being open or closed. Those dots and dashes 64 00:05:19,850 --> 00:05:22,810 Speaker 1: of Morse code were just a hint at the possibilities. 65 00:05:23,290 --> 00:05:26,890 Speaker 1: Armed only with open or closed on or off dot 66 00:05:27,090 --> 00:05:32,450 Speaker 1: or dash zero or one, machines could perform any operation 67 00:05:32,610 --> 00:05:36,970 Speaker 1: in mathematics or logic, And rather than merely proving the 68 00:05:37,010 --> 00:05:40,450 Speaker 1: point in abstract, Shannon, who was barely old enough to 69 00:05:40,490 --> 00:05:45,170 Speaker 1: buy a beer, showed electrical engineers how to efficiently build 70 00:05:45,330 --> 00:05:49,770 Speaker 1: a logic machine. Claude Shannon had bridged the vast gap 71 00:05:50,050 --> 00:05:56,050 Speaker 1: between electrical wiring diagrams and thought itself unlocking the age 72 00:05:56,170 --> 00:06:03,010 Speaker 1: of the digital computer. Shannon's second thunderbolt was published in 73 00:06:03,090 --> 00:06:06,250 Speaker 1: nineteen forty eight, when he was working at Bell Lamps 74 00:06:06,290 --> 00:06:11,170 Speaker 1: alongside several future Nobel prizewinners, including the team that invented 75 00:06:11,210 --> 00:06:15,610 Speaker 1: the transistor, Shannon returned to the deep problem underlying the 76 00:06:15,650 --> 00:06:22,330 Speaker 1: Transatlantic cable fiasco. He created a unified mathematical theory of 77 00:06:22,410 --> 00:06:26,650 Speaker 1: transmitting information. Some of that theory seems obvious from the 78 00:06:26,730 --> 00:06:29,850 Speaker 1: viewpoint of the twenty first century. We now take it 79 00:06:29,850 --> 00:06:34,330 Speaker 1: for granted that information bits and bytes and gigabytes might 80 00:06:34,450 --> 00:06:38,570 Speaker 1: represent anything a computer game or a spreadsheet, or music 81 00:06:39,090 --> 00:06:45,010 Speaker 1: or pornography. But that idea started with Shannon. Before him, 82 00:06:45,170 --> 00:06:49,050 Speaker 1: researchers only dimly grasped the distinction between the meaning of 83 00:06:49,090 --> 00:06:53,730 Speaker 1: a message and the quantity of information it contained. The 84 00:06:53,890 --> 00:06:56,970 Speaker 1: idea of compressing a file so that it took up 85 00:06:57,050 --> 00:07:01,130 Speaker 1: less space were Shannon's, and so too was the utterly 86 00:07:01,250 --> 00:07:04,330 Speaker 1: radical idea that any amount of noise on a line 87 00:07:04,690 --> 00:07:08,210 Speaker 1: could be overcome. We didn't do that by cranking up 88 00:07:08,210 --> 00:07:11,330 Speaker 1: the voltage and melting the undersea cable, nor did you 89 00:07:11,370 --> 00:07:14,130 Speaker 1: need to build a better listening device or a thicker cable. 90 00:07:14,930 --> 00:07:19,130 Speaker 1: No matter how much distortion there was, you could convey 91 00:07:19,370 --> 00:07:23,290 Speaker 1: any message if you had enough patience. All you had 92 00:07:23,330 --> 00:07:26,690 Speaker 1: to do was add redundancy to the data. It's the 93 00:07:26,850 --> 00:07:30,890 Speaker 1: inverse of compressing a file. You add extra data to 94 00:07:30,930 --> 00:07:33,850 Speaker 1: make the message more likely to be recoverable. Even in 95 00:07:33,890 --> 00:07:39,410 Speaker 1: the presence of interference, that idea was unthinkable, right up 96 00:07:39,410 --> 00:07:42,370 Speaker 1: to the point that Claude Shannon improved how to do it. 97 00:07:46,290 --> 00:07:50,570 Speaker 1: This new theory of information was revolutionary and so elegant 98 00:07:50,610 --> 00:07:53,370 Speaker 1: and general that it could be applied to anything from 99 00:07:53,410 --> 00:07:57,050 Speaker 1: the Internet to genetic information in DNA, even though the 100 00:07:57,050 --> 00:08:00,490 Speaker 1: Internet did not then exist and the double helix structure 101 00:08:00,490 --> 00:08:04,810 Speaker 1: of DNA had not yet been discovered. Shannon wasn't merely 102 00:08:04,850 --> 00:08:08,050 Speaker 1: ahead of his time. He was the one who had 103 00:08:08,050 --> 00:08:12,290 Speaker 1: wound the clock and set it running. All this and 104 00:08:12,410 --> 00:08:16,970 Speaker 1: he'd barely turned thirty. So what did Shannon do for 105 00:08:17,010 --> 00:08:21,450 Speaker 1: an encore? Is a description from his biographers, Jimmy Sony 106 00:08:21,570 --> 00:08:26,530 Speaker 1: and Rob Goodman of Shannon's work ethic. Shannon arrived late, 107 00:08:26,770 --> 00:08:29,570 Speaker 1: if at all, and often spend the day absorbed in 108 00:08:29,650 --> 00:08:32,930 Speaker 1: games of chess and hecks in the common areas. When 109 00:08:33,010 --> 00:08:35,610 Speaker 1: not besting his colleagues at board games, he would be 110 00:08:35,650 --> 00:08:40,850 Speaker 1: found piloting a unicycle through Bell Labs's narrow passageways Occasionally 111 00:08:40,890 --> 00:08:44,050 Speaker 1: while juggling. Sometimes he would po go stick his way 112 00:08:44,050 --> 00:08:47,810 Speaker 1: around the Bell Labs campus, much to the consternation reimagine 113 00:08:48,090 --> 00:08:52,650 Speaker 1: of the people who signed his paychecks. Shannon wasn't goofing 114 00:08:52,650 --> 00:08:56,570 Speaker 1: off completely. He often worked hard, but the projects he 115 00:08:56,650 --> 00:09:00,970 Speaker 1: worked tom seemed whimsical. For example, he spent many hours 116 00:09:00,970 --> 00:09:04,930 Speaker 1: at home playing with a colossal erector set. He built 117 00:09:04,930 --> 00:09:08,170 Speaker 1: a robot mouse that could explore a maze and by 118 00:09:08,210 --> 00:09:10,970 Speaker 1: trial and error on the first attempt, learn how to 119 00:09:11,010 --> 00:09:15,010 Speaker 1: reach its target flawlessly on the second run. The robot 120 00:09:15,010 --> 00:09:17,890 Speaker 1: mouse was clever and thought provoking, and it might have 121 00:09:17,970 --> 00:09:23,530 Speaker 1: represented real progress towards artificial intelligence if Shannon had persisted 122 00:09:23,530 --> 00:09:28,650 Speaker 1: with it. But he didn't. Shannon built perhaps the first 123 00:09:28,970 --> 00:09:32,970 Speaker 1: chess playing computer, albeit one that could play only a 124 00:09:33,090 --> 00:09:37,370 Speaker 1: radically simplified setup the end game with six pieces. He 125 00:09:37,450 --> 00:09:41,050 Speaker 1: published a theoretical paper on computer chess. It could have 126 00:09:41,090 --> 00:09:44,610 Speaker 1: been the start of something, but again he lost interest. 127 00:09:45,930 --> 00:09:48,810 Speaker 1: It seemed a shame. If anyone could make progress with 128 00:09:48,850 --> 00:09:53,850 Speaker 1: computer chess, surely it was Shannon. He was good. Shannon 129 00:09:53,890 --> 00:09:56,970 Speaker 1: once traveled to Moscow and played chess with three time 130 00:09:57,010 --> 00:10:02,170 Speaker 1: world champion Mikhael Botvinick, and he made Botfinick sweat. When 131 00:10:02,170 --> 00:10:05,290 Speaker 1: it wasn't chess, it was juggling. Shannon tried to figure 132 00:10:05,290 --> 00:10:08,130 Speaker 1: out how to juggle upside down by hanging from the 133 00:10:08,130 --> 00:10:11,130 Speaker 1: ceiling and bouncing the balls off the floor. He built 134 00:10:11,210 --> 00:10:15,090 Speaker 1: juggling robots too, and a variety of machines designed to 135 00:10:15,130 --> 00:10:19,290 Speaker 1: play abstract games, such as hex and a Rubic's Cube 136 00:10:19,330 --> 00:10:23,850 Speaker 1: solving robot, and the Jugglometer and a flame throwing trumpet 137 00:10:24,450 --> 00:10:28,970 Speaker 1: and the Ultimate Machine. The Ultimate Machine is a box 138 00:10:29,010 --> 00:10:31,890 Speaker 1: with a switch and a trapdoor, and you flick the 139 00:10:31,930 --> 00:10:35,450 Speaker 1: switch to turn it on. A robot finger pops out 140 00:10:35,490 --> 00:10:38,410 Speaker 1: of the trapdoor and flips the switch back again to 141 00:10:38,410 --> 00:10:43,490 Speaker 1: turn itself off. Shannon made giant styrofoam shoes so he 142 00:10:43,490 --> 00:10:47,170 Speaker 1: could walk on water at a nearby lake. After Shannon 143 00:10:47,250 --> 00:10:50,610 Speaker 1: learned to juggle, ride a unicycle and walk a tight rope, 144 00:10:51,010 --> 00:10:54,490 Speaker 1: he formulated the aim of juggling on a unicycle on 145 00:10:54,570 --> 00:10:58,250 Speaker 1: a tight rope alas he never got further than two 146 00:10:58,330 --> 00:11:06,330 Speaker 1: out of three. Claude Shannon's boss, Henry Pollock, said, Shannon 147 00:11:06,730 --> 00:11:11,410 Speaker 1: has earned the right to be nonproductive, and of course 148 00:11:11,410 --> 00:11:17,370 Speaker 1: he had, but come on, you're a genius. Claude, You're 149 00:11:17,490 --> 00:11:21,090 Speaker 1: thirty three years old. You're the Einstein of computer science, 150 00:11:21,490 --> 00:11:26,850 Speaker 1: and you're unicycling, poe going and playing board games. Shannon 151 00:11:27,370 --> 00:11:32,010 Speaker 1: never again published anything like his theory of information. He 152 00:11:32,090 --> 00:11:35,690 Speaker 1: never even came close. Once he promised the editor of 153 00:11:35,770 --> 00:11:40,330 Speaker 1: Scientific American an article on the physics of juggling. If 154 00:11:40,370 --> 00:11:43,890 Speaker 1: that didn't seem trivial enough, he followed it up with 155 00:11:43,930 --> 00:11:48,210 Speaker 1: an unapologetic letter, You probably think I've been frittering. I say, 156 00:11:48,250 --> 00:11:51,250 Speaker 1: frittering away my time while my juggling paper is languishing 157 00:11:51,250 --> 00:11:54,090 Speaker 1: on the shelf. This is only half true. I have 158 00:11:54,210 --> 00:11:57,890 Speaker 1: come to two conclusions recently. One, I'm a better poet 159 00:11:57,930 --> 00:12:02,410 Speaker 1: than scientist. Two. Scientific American should have a poetry column 160 00:12:03,850 --> 00:12:08,050 Speaker 1: instead of his juggling research. Shannon enclosed a seventy line 161 00:12:08,130 --> 00:12:12,890 Speaker 1: poem about Rubik's cubes, to be sung to the tune 162 00:12:13,210 --> 00:12:18,650 Speaker 1: of Tarara Bundier. He added, I'm still working on the 163 00:12:18,730 --> 00:12:24,890 Speaker 1: juggling paper. Shannon never finished it. Not only was he 164 00:12:24,930 --> 00:12:29,170 Speaker 1: not producing thunderbolts, he wasn't even producing a study of juggling. 165 00:12:30,290 --> 00:12:33,890 Speaker 1: Perhaps we should not be surprised that Claude Shannon was 166 00:12:33,970 --> 00:12:37,250 Speaker 1: happy to put aside serious re search when the young 167 00:12:37,370 --> 00:12:40,850 Speaker 1: mathematician Ed Thorpe approached him for help in hacking the 168 00:12:40,930 --> 00:12:48,690 Speaker 1: roulette table in Vegas. Cautionary tales will be back in 169 00:12:48,730 --> 00:12:59,410 Speaker 1: a moment. If we know anything, we know we're supposed 170 00:12:59,410 --> 00:13:03,810 Speaker 1: to stick to a task. Psychologists have developed some attractive 171 00:13:03,850 --> 00:13:09,290 Speaker 1: ideas about how success depends on practice and determination. Is 172 00:13:09,330 --> 00:13:14,330 Speaker 1: Angela Duckworth, who's popularized the idea of grit, Carol Dwex 173 00:13:14,410 --> 00:13:18,890 Speaker 1: research on the growth mindset, and the late and as Ericsson, 174 00:13:19,330 --> 00:13:22,610 Speaker 1: the source of the ten thousand hour rule made famous 175 00:13:22,650 --> 00:13:26,290 Speaker 1: by Malcolm Gladwell. There are subtleties to each of these 176 00:13:26,290 --> 00:13:29,650 Speaker 1: research programs, but the versions that have broken into popular 177 00:13:29,690 --> 00:13:34,890 Speaker 1: culture are simple enough. Like some motivational poster, nothing in 178 00:13:34,890 --> 00:13:39,370 Speaker 1: this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not. 179 00:13:40,130 --> 00:13:44,850 Speaker 1: Nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius 180 00:13:44,890 --> 00:13:50,410 Speaker 1: will not unrewarded genius is almost proverb. The slogan press 181 00:13:50,490 --> 00:13:54,490 Speaker 1: I has solved and always will solve the problems of 182 00:13:54,490 --> 00:13:59,610 Speaker 1: the human race. Isn't that great? It's often attributed to 183 00:13:59,690 --> 00:14:04,650 Speaker 1: President Calvin Coolidge, but it's older than that. Claude Shannon, however, 184 00:14:05,130 --> 00:14:09,370 Speaker 1: seems not to have gotten the message he achieved so much, 185 00:14:09,770 --> 00:14:12,050 Speaker 1: But if it's stuck to a task, couldn't he have 186 00:14:12,090 --> 00:14:17,330 Speaker 1: achieved so much more? Instead, he was playing with flamethrowing trumpets, 187 00:14:17,450 --> 00:14:21,810 Speaker 1: juggling robots, and silly poems, oh and the impossible task 188 00:14:21,850 --> 00:14:28,450 Speaker 1: of beating the casino at roulette. For a junior academic, 189 00:14:29,050 --> 00:14:32,610 Speaker 1: ed Thorpe spent a surprising amount of time in casinos, 190 00:14:33,450 --> 00:14:37,090 Speaker 1: using some ferocious mathematics and the best computers he could 191 00:14:37,130 --> 00:14:40,130 Speaker 1: access at MIT. Thorpe had figured out that it was 192 00:14:40,210 --> 00:14:44,330 Speaker 1: possible to beat the dealer at the casino staple blackjack 193 00:14:44,890 --> 00:14:47,250 Speaker 1: by keeping track of the cards that had been played 194 00:14:47,850 --> 00:14:51,010 Speaker 1: in placing bets when the deck was offering favorable odds. 195 00:14:52,130 --> 00:14:55,730 Speaker 1: Card counting is a familiar idea these days. It all 196 00:14:55,930 --> 00:15:01,330 Speaker 1: started with Ed Thorpe. Thorpe's ideas were sophisticated enough to 197 00:15:01,370 --> 00:15:04,530 Speaker 1: be worth publishing as an academic paper, which he did, 198 00:15:05,410 --> 00:15:08,890 Speaker 1: but he wasn't content with that. He wanted to beat 199 00:15:09,170 --> 00:15:13,690 Speaker 1: casino too. To do that, Thorpe had to learn to 200 00:15:13,730 --> 00:15:18,770 Speaker 1: spot crooked dealing, where a disguise count cards unobtrusively late 201 00:15:18,810 --> 00:15:22,130 Speaker 1: into the night, and above all, make sure he didn't 202 00:15:22,130 --> 00:15:27,810 Speaker 1: get killed. That was no idle worry. One day Thorpe 203 00:15:27,850 --> 00:15:31,490 Speaker 1: made a little too much money, and the casino spiked 204 00:15:31,610 --> 00:15:35,850 Speaker 1: his coffee with something mysterious that blurred his vision for hours. 205 00:15:36,610 --> 00:15:39,730 Speaker 1: He came back the next day and the casino tried 206 00:15:39,770 --> 00:15:44,490 Speaker 1: it again, but Thorpe wasn't scared. His idea to beat 207 00:15:44,570 --> 00:15:47,930 Speaker 1: Roulette was the boldest of all. He didn't have in 208 00:15:48,010 --> 00:15:51,210 Speaker 1: mind a clever mathematical system. There are loads of them, 209 00:15:51,490 --> 00:15:55,130 Speaker 1: and he knew that none of them work. Instead, he 210 00:15:55,290 --> 00:15:58,210 Speaker 1: planned to build a computer that could predict where the 211 00:15:58,250 --> 00:16:02,370 Speaker 1: ball would land. That would be hard even today, but 212 00:16:02,650 --> 00:16:05,410 Speaker 1: at a time when computers were the size of pianos, 213 00:16:06,170 --> 00:16:09,450 Speaker 1: this computer needed to be one that you could seal 214 00:16:09,610 --> 00:16:15,890 Speaker 1: inside your clothes, the world's first wearable computer, decades before 215 00:16:15,890 --> 00:16:21,490 Speaker 1: the fitbit, Google Glass or the Apple Watch. Thorpe had 216 00:16:21,530 --> 00:16:24,330 Speaker 1: done some experiments on the timing of a Roulette wheel 217 00:16:24,330 --> 00:16:27,650 Speaker 1: with his wife, Vivian, a woman who was both intelligent 218 00:16:27,890 --> 00:16:31,050 Speaker 1: and indulgent, as you'd need to be if you were 219 00:16:31,090 --> 00:16:34,810 Speaker 1: married to Ed Thorpe. But to crack the problem he 220 00:16:34,930 --> 00:16:38,610 Speaker 1: needed to team up with perhaps the best gadgeteer in 221 00:16:38,650 --> 00:16:44,050 Speaker 1: the world, Claude Shannon. Thorpe spent twenty hours a week 222 00:16:44,090 --> 00:16:48,170 Speaker 1: at Shannon's house he was in heaven. The basement was 223 00:16:48,210 --> 00:16:56,290 Speaker 1: a gadgeteers paradise. Moders, transistors, switches, pulleys, gears, condensers, transformers. 224 00:16:56,890 --> 00:17:01,890 Speaker 1: I was now happily working with the ultimate gadgeteer. Shannon 225 00:17:01,890 --> 00:17:04,010 Speaker 1: and Thorpe were able to time the spinning of the 226 00:17:04,050 --> 00:17:06,730 Speaker 1: ball around an upper loop and the contrary motion of 227 00:17:06,730 --> 00:17:09,650 Speaker 1: the wheel itself. With practice, they were to start a 228 00:17:09,690 --> 00:17:12,850 Speaker 1: clock within one hundredth of a second and then stop 229 00:17:12,930 --> 00:17:15,930 Speaker 1: the clock after ten revolutions. That gave them both the 230 00:17:16,010 --> 00:17:18,690 Speaker 1: speed and the position of the ball relative to the wheel, 231 00:17:19,090 --> 00:17:23,410 Speaker 1: and Newtonian physics could do the rest. The result of 232 00:17:23,530 --> 00:17:27,250 Speaker 1: months of experimentation taught them that, using their computer to 233 00:17:27,250 --> 00:17:29,810 Speaker 1: compute the path of the ball, they could predict that 234 00:17:29,850 --> 00:17:33,130 Speaker 1: it would fall into one of five numbers just over 235 00:17:33,290 --> 00:17:36,050 Speaker 1: one eighth of the wheel and expect to be right 236 00:17:36,370 --> 00:17:39,850 Speaker 1: twenty percent of the time. It seems a modest advantage, 237 00:17:39,970 --> 00:17:44,050 Speaker 1: but the potential profits were enormous. All they had to 238 00:17:44,090 --> 00:17:47,490 Speaker 1: do was to figure out how to miniaturize that computer, 239 00:17:48,090 --> 00:17:51,050 Speaker 1: making it small enough to slip into a pocket and 240 00:17:51,170 --> 00:17:56,170 Speaker 1: carry into the casino undetected. It was an astonishingly audacious 241 00:17:56,210 --> 00:18:00,170 Speaker 1: project and a huge effort For the final three weeks, 242 00:18:00,530 --> 00:18:04,450 Speaker 1: Thorpe was effectively living at Shannon's house, but by August 243 00:18:04,610 --> 00:18:09,050 Speaker 1: nineteen sixty one, the device was ready with their accomplices, 244 00:18:09,450 --> 00:18:13,330 Speaker 1: Vivian Thorpe and Claude's wife, the mathematician Betty Shannon. The 245 00:18:13,410 --> 00:18:17,410 Speaker 1: two gadgeteers then took it to the casinos. The Einstein 246 00:18:17,490 --> 00:18:26,010 Speaker 1: of computer science was going to Las Vegas. Looking at 247 00:18:26,050 --> 00:18:29,890 Speaker 1: Claude Shannon's career from age thirty three onwards, it's hard 248 00:18:29,970 --> 00:18:32,930 Speaker 1: to escape the conclusion that he might have achieved more, 249 00:18:33,370 --> 00:18:36,890 Speaker 1: much more, if not for his habit of flitting between 250 00:18:36,930 --> 00:18:40,610 Speaker 1: whimsical projects and typically setting them aside before they were finished. 251 00:18:41,210 --> 00:18:46,090 Speaker 1: But some very smart people would disagree. Vanavar Bush arguably 252 00:18:46,170 --> 00:18:50,130 Speaker 1: knew more than anyone about the way scientific progress occurred. 253 00:18:50,730 --> 00:18:53,970 Speaker 1: He guided science policy for the United States during the 254 00:18:53,970 --> 00:18:58,610 Speaker 1: Second World War, coordinating the efforts of six thousand researchers. 255 00:18:59,290 --> 00:19:03,130 Speaker 1: Bush said that great scientists should range widely and keep 256 00:19:03,210 --> 00:19:06,730 Speaker 1: changing things up. In a speech to professors at MIT, 257 00:19:07,450 --> 00:19:12,530 Speaker 1: Bush advocated breath rather than depth. It is unfortunate when 258 00:19:12,530 --> 00:19:16,170 Speaker 1: a brilliant and creative mind insists upon living in a 259 00:19:16,250 --> 00:19:20,850 Speaker 1: modern monastic cell. Bush's idea was later backed up by 260 00:19:20,930 --> 00:19:27,930 Speaker 1: scientific investigation of scientists themselves. In nineteen fifty eight, a 261 00:19:28,050 --> 00:19:32,850 Speaker 1: remarkable study was launched by a young psychologist named Bernice Agison. 262 00:19:33,490 --> 00:19:36,770 Speaker 1: The study followed a group of promising researchers as their 263 00:19:36,810 --> 00:19:41,810 Speaker 1: careers unfolded, periodically interviewing them and continuing even after Agison 264 00:19:41,850 --> 00:19:45,970 Speaker 1: herself died in nineteen eighty five. Four of the scientists 265 00:19:46,050 --> 00:19:50,490 Speaker 1: eventually won Nobel prizes. The findings of the Agison study 266 00:19:50,690 --> 00:19:54,250 Speaker 1: support Shannon's habit of flipping from one project to another. 267 00:19:54,930 --> 00:19:58,610 Speaker 1: The scientists who'd most flourished over the decades had switched 268 00:19:58,650 --> 00:20:02,810 Speaker 1: back and forth dozens of times. Once you start looking 269 00:20:02,850 --> 00:20:06,490 Speaker 1: for this pattern, you see it everywhere. Isaac Newton is 270 00:20:06,570 --> 00:20:09,890 Speaker 1: most famous for formulating the law of gravity, but made 271 00:20:10,010 --> 00:20:13,810 Speaker 1: huge advances in mathematics and optics. He was the master 272 00:20:13,890 --> 00:20:17,490 Speaker 1: of the Royal Mint and was fascinated by economics, and 273 00:20:17,570 --> 00:20:20,690 Speaker 1: devoted as much attention to alchemy as to anything else. 274 00:20:21,370 --> 00:20:26,330 Speaker 1: Einstein published four astonishing scientific papers on four different topics, 275 00:20:26,570 --> 00:20:30,730 Speaker 1: all in the same year nineteen o five. Charles Darwin 276 00:20:30,850 --> 00:20:35,090 Speaker 1: worked simultaneously on the theory of evolution, the definitive two 277 00:20:35,170 --> 00:20:39,170 Speaker 1: volume work on Barnacles and a book about the human infant, 278 00:20:39,570 --> 00:20:43,450 Speaker 1: begun while his son William was a baby, and published 279 00:20:43,490 --> 00:20:47,970 Speaker 1: just in time for William Darwin's thirty eighth birthday. Multiple 280 00:20:48,050 --> 00:20:52,170 Speaker 1: projects aren't unusual at the highest level of science, they're 281 00:20:52,170 --> 00:20:56,370 Speaker 1: the norm. Not only that high achieving scientists often have 282 00:20:56,530 --> 00:21:01,330 Speaker 1: time consuming side interests, pursuing photography, fine art, or music 283 00:21:01,690 --> 00:21:06,770 Speaker 1: at or near a professional level. Nobel Prize winning scientists 284 00:21:06,850 --> 00:21:10,610 Speaker 1: are substantially more likely to have serious hobbies than other 285 00:21:10,730 --> 00:21:13,930 Speaker 1: leading scientists, who in turn are more likely to have 286 00:21:14,010 --> 00:21:17,730 Speaker 1: them than the rest of us. The later part of 287 00:21:17,770 --> 00:21:22,330 Speaker 1: Shannon's career fits right into this highly diverse pattern, but 288 00:21:22,450 --> 00:21:26,610 Speaker 1: then so does the early part. Back in nineteen thirty nine, 289 00:21:26,890 --> 00:21:31,210 Speaker 1: shortly after his first thunderbolt, he wrote a note to 290 00:21:31,290 --> 00:21:36,610 Speaker 1: an academic mentor, Dear doctor Bush, Yes, Van of our Bush, 291 00:21:36,650 --> 00:21:39,650 Speaker 1: the man who knew everyone who mattered in mid century 292 00:21:39,650 --> 00:21:43,210 Speaker 1: American science. Of course, he was there to support the 293 00:21:43,290 --> 00:21:47,610 Speaker 1: young Claude Shannon. Dear doctor Bush, I've been working on 294 00:21:47,730 --> 00:21:51,610 Speaker 1: three different ideas simultaneously, and strangely enough, it seems a 295 00:21:51,690 --> 00:21:55,690 Speaker 1: more productive method than sticking to one problem. When Shannon 296 00:21:55,730 --> 00:21:58,250 Speaker 1: wrote to Van of oar Bush, he wasn't working on 297 00:21:58,370 --> 00:22:02,610 Speaker 1: engineering or logic. He was working on genetics. He knew 298 00:22:02,610 --> 00:22:06,570 Speaker 1: nothing about the subject, but swiftly produced a completely new 299 00:22:06,690 --> 00:22:11,290 Speaker 1: kind of algebra to describe and analyzed genetic inheritance. The 300 00:22:11,370 --> 00:22:15,970 Speaker 1: work was intriguing and wholly original, but needed developing. Did 301 00:22:16,010 --> 00:22:20,090 Speaker 1: Shannon develop it? He did not. In fact, he never 302 00:22:20,170 --> 00:22:24,450 Speaker 1: even bothered publishing it. Neither did he ever return to genetics. 303 00:22:25,130 --> 00:22:28,930 Speaker 1: Later scholars lament the loss. His new algebra might really 304 00:22:28,930 --> 00:22:32,610 Speaker 1: have advanced the field, but sticking with genetics might also 305 00:22:32,650 --> 00:22:36,890 Speaker 1: have meant he never had his second thunderbolt on information theory. 306 00:22:37,970 --> 00:22:42,450 Speaker 1: Between those two thunderbolts, Shannon didn't just switch fields. He 307 00:22:42,530 --> 00:22:46,130 Speaker 1: lived a rich and complicated life. He married and then 308 00:22:46,170 --> 00:22:49,290 Speaker 1: divorced within a year. He moved to Manhattan to spice 309 00:22:49,290 --> 00:22:52,530 Speaker 1: things up. It played chess in Washington Square Park. It 310 00:22:52,650 --> 00:22:55,410 Speaker 1: played clarinet. He loved the jazz scene in New York. 311 00:22:56,010 --> 00:22:59,690 Speaker 1: He swam, played tennis, stayed up too late, and played 312 00:22:59,690 --> 00:23:03,290 Speaker 1: his music too loud. All this was happening when Shannon 313 00:23:03,330 --> 00:23:07,010 Speaker 1: was at the peak of his intellectual powers. Shannon didn't 314 00:23:07,050 --> 00:23:10,410 Speaker 1: just hit thirty five then and in serious thinking in 315 00:23:10,490 --> 00:23:14,650 Speaker 1: favor of playing around. Shannon was playing around all along. 316 00:23:15,690 --> 00:23:19,130 Speaker 1: Maybe Shannon's love of frittering, I say, frittering away his 317 00:23:19,210 --> 00:23:24,770 Speaker 1: time on juggling or unicycling, or music or chess. Maybe 318 00:23:24,770 --> 00:23:29,290 Speaker 1: that's not the reason he produced only two truly brilliant ideas. 319 00:23:30,050 --> 00:23:33,970 Speaker 1: Maybe it's the reason he produced two truly brilliant ideas 320 00:23:34,490 --> 00:23:42,650 Speaker 1: in the first place. Cautionary tales will be back in 321 00:23:42,690 --> 00:23:51,810 Speaker 1: a moment. I try hard to answer all the people 322 00:23:51,810 --> 00:23:54,690 Speaker 1: who write to me. I get anxious knowing that the 323 00:23:54,770 --> 00:23:59,450 Speaker 1: task is unfinished. Claude Shannon didn't feel that same compulsion 324 00:23:59,570 --> 00:24:04,330 Speaker 1: to clear his inbox. He often left correspondence unanswered, then 325 00:24:04,330 --> 00:24:06,770 Speaker 1: eventually cleared the decks through the use of a trash 326 00:24:06,810 --> 00:24:10,450 Speaker 1: can marked letters I've procrassed, donated on for too long. 327 00:24:11,490 --> 00:24:13,770 Speaker 1: That might seem a trivial thing, but I think it 328 00:24:13,810 --> 00:24:18,450 Speaker 1: points to something deeper. Psychologists have identified a tendency called 329 00:24:18,810 --> 00:24:22,410 Speaker 1: completion by us. If you've ever assembled a list of 330 00:24:22,450 --> 00:24:25,330 Speaker 1: things to do, then ticked off all the easy ones 331 00:24:25,370 --> 00:24:29,810 Speaker 1: while ignoring the important stuff, you've demonstrated completion by us. 332 00:24:30,610 --> 00:24:35,490 Speaker 1: That apparently admirable tendency persistence, the determination to finish what 333 00:24:35,570 --> 00:24:39,770 Speaker 1: we start well, it could be twisted and perverted if 334 00:24:39,810 --> 00:24:43,330 Speaker 1: we feel compelled to reach the finish line, we also 335 00:24:43,410 --> 00:24:47,090 Speaker 1: feel tempted to choose a short racetrack. There's more at 336 00:24:47,090 --> 00:24:50,330 Speaker 1: stake here than making ourselves feel better by cheating with 337 00:24:50,370 --> 00:24:54,890 Speaker 1: our own to do lists. Psychologists recently studied completion by 338 00:24:54,930 --> 00:24:58,610 Speaker 1: us in a high stakes setting, a hospital emergency department. 339 00:24:59,130 --> 00:25:02,290 Speaker 1: They found that the busier the emergency room becomes, the 340 00:25:02,410 --> 00:25:05,930 Speaker 1: more the doctors look for quick winds the patients who 341 00:25:06,010 --> 00:25:09,090 Speaker 1: aren't really very ill and can therefore be treated swiftly 342 00:25:09,450 --> 00:25:13,250 Speaker 1: and ticked off the list, and this behavior is counterproductive. 343 00:25:13,850 --> 00:25:17,530 Speaker 1: The more seriously ill patients wait longer, of course, and 344 00:25:17,730 --> 00:25:20,370 Speaker 1: the doctors start to slow down after working through a 345 00:25:20,410 --> 00:25:23,650 Speaker 1: lot of fairly trivial cases. I expect we all know 346 00:25:23,730 --> 00:25:27,490 Speaker 1: the feeling, but in their subconscious desire to see some 347 00:25:27,570 --> 00:25:32,090 Speaker 1: work through to completion, doctors were harming the patients who 348 00:25:32,130 --> 00:25:38,530 Speaker 1: were in greatest need. Claude Shannon's willingness to set aside 349 00:25:38,530 --> 00:25:42,610 Speaker 1: projects starts to look like a strength rather than a weakness. 350 00:25:43,210 --> 00:25:47,730 Speaker 1: Shannons certainly could focus, whether building information theory from scratch 351 00:25:48,210 --> 00:25:52,490 Speaker 1: or building a wearable computer to be Droulette. Yet Shannon 352 00:25:52,610 --> 00:25:55,570 Speaker 1: also seemed to have an inner confidence that allowed him 353 00:25:55,650 --> 00:25:58,850 Speaker 1: to declare victory at any point that suited him. If 354 00:25:58,890 --> 00:26:01,890 Speaker 1: a piece of work was not good enough to publish, fine, 355 00:26:02,210 --> 00:26:05,770 Speaker 1: he was happy to leave it unpublished. That juggling paper 356 00:26:05,890 --> 00:26:08,890 Speaker 1: is an example, but so too was his early work 357 00:26:08,890 --> 00:26:13,290 Speaker 1: on genetic algebra. One of Claude Channon's colleagues at Bell 358 00:26:13,410 --> 00:26:18,170 Speaker 1: Labs praised him as a man of infinite courage. He 359 00:26:18,250 --> 00:26:23,210 Speaker 1: was talking about Shannon's intellectual daring, a willingness to march 360 00:26:23,370 --> 00:26:27,050 Speaker 1: into unknown territory to begin the search for solutions to 361 00:26:27,130 --> 00:26:31,930 Speaker 1: problems that seemed as unbeatable as Roulette. But perhaps courage 362 00:26:32,010 --> 00:26:34,930 Speaker 1: is not quite the right word to describe Shannon's approach. 363 00:26:35,650 --> 00:26:41,450 Speaker 1: I prefer in soussions. Claude Channon just wasn't worried. He 364 00:26:41,530 --> 00:26:44,090 Speaker 1: didn't feel completion by us the way you and I 365 00:26:44,170 --> 00:26:47,290 Speaker 1: feel it. He would walk away from any project at 366 00:26:47,330 --> 00:26:51,170 Speaker 1: any time without regret. And if he was willing to 367 00:26:51,210 --> 00:26:55,490 Speaker 1: abandon a stalled project, where was the risk? And if 368 00:26:55,490 --> 00:26:59,930 Speaker 1: there was little risk, why talk about courage. Shannon didn't 369 00:26:59,970 --> 00:27:03,930 Speaker 1: need courage, He just needed the ability to move on. 370 00:27:06,530 --> 00:27:10,490 Speaker 1: In August nineteen sixty one, Claude and Betty Shannon met 371 00:27:10,730 --> 00:27:13,970 Speaker 1: ed and Vivian Thorpe in a hotel room in Las Vegas. 372 00:27:14,730 --> 00:27:18,570 Speaker 1: Claude and Ed prepared the wearable computer system, which required 373 00:27:18,610 --> 00:27:22,770 Speaker 1: both of them to operate. Shannon controlled the computer itself, 374 00:27:23,210 --> 00:27:26,330 Speaker 1: the size of a cigarette packet, with twelve transistors in it. 375 00:27:27,130 --> 00:27:31,090 Speaker 1: He used his toes to trigger silent mercury switches hidden 376 00:27:31,130 --> 00:27:35,330 Speaker 1: in his shoes. Thorpe, whose research into blackjack had given 377 00:27:35,410 --> 00:27:38,730 Speaker 1: him plenty of experience hanging around in casinos, was the 378 00:27:38,770 --> 00:27:41,490 Speaker 1: one who would place the bets. He had a radio 379 00:27:41,530 --> 00:27:45,610 Speaker 1: receiver and an earpiece connected to a hair thin steel wire. 380 00:27:46,330 --> 00:27:50,970 Speaker 1: The earpiece played an ascending musical scale. Shannon would use 381 00:27:51,050 --> 00:27:53,850 Speaker 1: the toe switches to time a rotation of the wheel 382 00:27:54,290 --> 00:27:56,890 Speaker 1: and then the counter rotation of the ball from the 383 00:27:56,930 --> 00:28:00,850 Speaker 1: moment it passed a reference mark. Thorpe would hear the 384 00:28:00,930 --> 00:28:04,930 Speaker 1: musical scale stop on a continuous note at the moment 385 00:28:04,970 --> 00:28:08,170 Speaker 1: that Shannon finished timing the rotation, and the pitch of 386 00:28:08,170 --> 00:28:11,570 Speaker 1: that continuous would indicate in which part of the wheel 387 00:28:11,810 --> 00:28:15,610 Speaker 1: the ball was likely to drop. Thorpe still had a 388 00:28:15,650 --> 00:28:20,210 Speaker 1: few seconds to place bets and collect the money. Thorpe 389 00:28:20,410 --> 00:28:23,490 Speaker 1: knew from hard experience that they had to be careful. 390 00:28:24,690 --> 00:28:29,210 Speaker 1: Their device wasn't illegal, it was far too inconceivable for that, 391 00:28:30,010 --> 00:28:33,490 Speaker 1: but it wouldn't go down well if discovered. Beating the 392 00:28:33,490 --> 00:28:38,090 Speaker 1: casino required more than just beating the game. That's why 393 00:28:38,090 --> 00:28:41,370 Speaker 1: the Shannons and the Thorpes stroll up to the table separately, 394 00:28:41,570 --> 00:28:44,770 Speaker 1: pretending not to know each other. It's why Claude Shannon's 395 00:28:44,930 --> 00:28:48,210 Speaker 1: scribbling numbers down, distracting the floor manager from what he's 396 00:28:48,210 --> 00:28:52,410 Speaker 1: really doing. All the while he's gazing intently at the 397 00:28:52,410 --> 00:28:56,930 Speaker 1: wheel from under his dark eyebrows and his toe, silently 398 00:28:57,050 --> 00:29:02,970 Speaker 1: pressing and releasing the hidden control of the computer. And 399 00:29:03,130 --> 00:29:05,650 Speaker 1: while Thorpe is standing at the other end of the table, 400 00:29:06,010 --> 00:29:10,410 Speaker 1: cheerfully placing his bets the earpieces, seeing the signals from 401 00:29:10,490 --> 00:29:14,850 Speaker 1: Shannon's little computer in giving Thorpe predictions in the form 402 00:29:14,890 --> 00:29:23,450 Speaker 1: of musical tones, and Thorpe is winning. Not everything goes smoothly. 403 00:29:24,170 --> 00:29:28,330 Speaker 1: The fine wires to Thorpe's earpiece break several times, requiring 404 00:29:28,330 --> 00:29:31,650 Speaker 1: a trip to the bathroom to fix them. At one moment, 405 00:29:31,890 --> 00:29:35,730 Speaker 1: a horrified observer sees the earpiece come loose and thinks 406 00:29:35,770 --> 00:29:39,610 Speaker 1: some strange insect is crawling out of Thorpe's ear But 407 00:29:39,850 --> 00:29:45,370 Speaker 1: fundamentally the computer works perfectly. The chips are stacking up fast. 408 00:29:47,530 --> 00:29:50,010 Speaker 1: At the end of the visit to Vegas, the Shannons 409 00:29:50,050 --> 00:29:54,450 Speaker 1: and the Thorpes pondered their options. Ed Thorpe was bullish. 410 00:29:54,690 --> 00:29:57,170 Speaker 1: He'd beaten the casinos before and was happy to do 411 00:29:57,210 --> 00:30:01,290 Speaker 1: it again, but Betty, Claude and Vivian weren't so sure. 412 00:30:01,930 --> 00:30:06,170 Speaker 1: It had been an exhilarating day, but a nerve racking one, 413 00:30:06,490 --> 00:30:09,370 Speaker 1: and casino's simply banned players who seemed to in too 414 00:30:09,490 --> 00:30:12,730 Speaker 1: much for any reason, so making the computer pay on 415 00:30:12,770 --> 00:30:18,250 Speaker 1: a regular basis would require constantly concealing their identities. Thorpe 416 00:30:18,530 --> 00:30:21,890 Speaker 1: was forced to admit they had a point. The computer 417 00:30:22,170 --> 00:30:25,730 Speaker 1: clearly worked, and in theory they could use it to 418 00:30:25,770 --> 00:30:29,570 Speaker 1: make millions, but was it worth the effort and the risk. 419 00:30:30,690 --> 00:30:34,130 Speaker 1: Shannon and Thorpe had had their fun, and they'd proved 420 00:30:34,170 --> 00:30:38,170 Speaker 1: their point to their own satisfaction, and Claude Shannon had 421 00:30:38,290 --> 00:30:42,890 Speaker 1: other projects to play with, so after months of hard work, 422 00:30:43,330 --> 00:30:49,250 Speaker 1: the world's first wearable computer was retired, undefeated after a 423 00:30:49,290 --> 00:30:57,170 Speaker 1: single trip to Vegas. Decades later, Thorpe reflected, I have 424 00:30:57,250 --> 00:31:03,930 Speaker 1: always thought it was a good decision. When I first 425 00:31:03,930 --> 00:31:07,050 Speaker 1: thought about writing this cautionary tale, I thought it would 426 00:31:07,050 --> 00:31:10,010 Speaker 1: be a warning not to lose focus like Shannon did. 427 00:31:11,170 --> 00:31:14,850 Speaker 1: I've changed my mind now. I think Shannon and Thorpe 428 00:31:15,090 --> 00:31:19,370 Speaker 1: are inspirational figures. The cautionary tale isn't a warning to 429 00:31:19,450 --> 00:31:23,530 Speaker 1: keep your focus. Instead, it's a warning not to focus 430 00:31:23,610 --> 00:31:27,570 Speaker 1: too much. Don't commit yourself so totally to a project 431 00:31:27,610 --> 00:31:30,850 Speaker 1: that you lose heart, or lose sight of creative ideas, 432 00:31:31,490 --> 00:31:36,090 Speaker 1: or lose your freedom to change course. There's one last 433 00:31:36,170 --> 00:31:39,250 Speaker 1: lesson I think we can draw from Claude Shannon's ability 434 00:31:39,290 --> 00:31:43,450 Speaker 1: to move on. In their Vegas hotel room, as Shannon 435 00:31:43,490 --> 00:31:47,490 Speaker 1: equipped Thorpe with his earpiece and the fine connecting wires, 436 00:31:47,490 --> 00:31:51,930 Speaker 1: Shannon had cocked his head to one side and smiled impishly. 437 00:31:52,690 --> 00:31:55,290 Speaker 1: What makes you tick? It was a joke about the 438 00:31:55,330 --> 00:31:58,370 Speaker 1: fact that Thorpe was plugged into a machine, but young 439 00:31:58,450 --> 00:32:01,370 Speaker 1: Thorpe took it as a deep question from an older 440 00:32:01,410 --> 00:32:06,290 Speaker 1: and wiser man. What did make him tick? Professional gambling, 441 00:32:06,570 --> 00:32:13,610 Speaker 1: academic mathematics or something else? But then why choose? Shannons 442 00:32:13,650 --> 00:32:17,370 Speaker 1: seem to do it all, from academia to juggling, and 443 00:32:17,450 --> 00:32:20,810 Speaker 1: so in the end, would ed Thorpe. You can find 444 00:32:20,810 --> 00:32:23,890 Speaker 1: interviews with him well into his eighties, still as sharp 445 00:32:23,970 --> 00:32:28,690 Speaker 1: as anything, reminiscing about blackjack and academic mathematics, and the 446 00:32:28,890 --> 00:32:32,690 Speaker 1: hundreds of millions of dollars he eventually made after analyzing 447 00:32:32,690 --> 00:32:36,610 Speaker 1: the patterns in financial markets as one of the first quants. 448 00:32:38,050 --> 00:32:41,850 Speaker 1: One of the intriguing ideas in Claude Channon's mathematical theory 449 00:32:41,890 --> 00:32:45,650 Speaker 1: of communication is that a message can be compressed to 450 00:32:45,690 --> 00:32:50,050 Speaker 1: the precise extent that it is predictable. A movie can 451 00:32:50,090 --> 00:32:53,410 Speaker 1: be compressed because each frame tends to resemble the previous one. 452 00:32:53,970 --> 00:32:58,570 Speaker 1: A compression algorithm doesn't store the new frame. Instead, it 453 00:32:58,690 --> 00:33:03,090 Speaker 1: stores a series of dips changes from the previous frame. 454 00:33:03,650 --> 00:33:07,370 Speaker 1: Movies with lots of cuts or fast dramatic movements are 455 00:33:07,410 --> 00:33:10,970 Speaker 1: harder to compress. The same is true more or less 456 00:33:10,970 --> 00:33:14,010 Speaker 1: with the way we remember our lives. Although the brain 457 00:33:14,170 --> 00:33:17,930 Speaker 1: is not a video recorder and doesn't store diffs, it 458 00:33:17,970 --> 00:33:21,490 Speaker 1: does compress memories by recalling the gist of an experience. 459 00:33:22,210 --> 00:33:24,370 Speaker 1: If I get up in the morning at the usual time, 460 00:33:24,730 --> 00:33:27,930 Speaker 1: eat my regular breakfast, walk the usual route to the station, 461 00:33:28,010 --> 00:33:30,490 Speaker 1: and catch the same train as always to the office, 462 00:33:31,090 --> 00:33:35,250 Speaker 1: my brain doesn't trouble itself to remember much. The diffs 463 00:33:35,290 --> 00:33:39,690 Speaker 1: aren't worth bothering with a life that's too predictable, creates 464 00:33:39,850 --> 00:33:43,690 Speaker 1: few memories. That's what prisoners sometimes say about their years 465 00:33:43,730 --> 00:33:47,010 Speaker 1: behind bars. Don't remember much because it was all the 466 00:33:47,090 --> 00:33:51,370 Speaker 1: same or the pandemic lockdown for me and perhaps for you, 467 00:33:51,930 --> 00:33:54,850 Speaker 1: involved sitting in the same seat, doing the same thing 468 00:33:54,930 --> 00:34:01,410 Speaker 1: every day. Life in lockdown was thin and forgettable. The 469 00:34:01,490 --> 00:34:05,570 Speaker 1: opposite experience is a vivid vacation somewhere, packed with new 470 00:34:05,610 --> 00:34:09,770 Speaker 1: sights and smells, the people, the language, the architecture, the food. 471 00:34:10,450 --> 00:34:16,170 Speaker 1: These complex, rich experiences defy compression. The diffs are too big, 472 00:34:16,530 --> 00:34:19,250 Speaker 1: so the memories are rich. Has it really only been 473 00:34:19,330 --> 00:34:22,570 Speaker 1: ten hours since I arrived, you ask yourself. Feels like 474 00:34:22,570 --> 00:34:25,970 Speaker 1: a week. So if you want a full life rich 475 00:34:26,130 --> 00:34:31,810 Speaker 1: with memories, keep searching for new experiences Like Shannon, don't 476 00:34:31,810 --> 00:34:36,530 Speaker 1: be afraid to declare victory and start afresh. Shannon did 477 00:34:36,610 --> 00:34:39,570 Speaker 1: everything the jazz and the juggling of the chess, the 478 00:34:39,650 --> 00:34:44,050 Speaker 1: intellectual journey from genetics to the Rubik's cube, the joky robots, 479 00:34:44,050 --> 00:34:47,690 Speaker 1: and the flame throwing trumpet, and he really did turn 480 00:34:47,930 --> 00:34:51,730 Speaker 1: upside down the way the world thought about digital information. 481 00:34:52,130 --> 00:35:08,130 Speaker 1: Not once, but twice isn't twice enough. The key sources 482 00:35:08,170 --> 00:35:11,850 Speaker 1: for this episode were Jimmy Sony and Rob Goodman's biography 483 00:35:12,010 --> 00:35:16,130 Speaker 1: of Claude Shannon, A Mind at Play, and Edward Thorpe's 484 00:35:16,170 --> 00:35:21,010 Speaker 1: autobiography A Man for All Markets. For a fullest of references, 485 00:35:21,370 --> 00:35:28,050 Speaker 1: see Tim Harford dot com. Cautionary Tales is written by 486 00:35:28,090 --> 00:35:32,370 Speaker 1: me Tim Harford with Andrew Wright. It's produced by Ryan 487 00:35:32,450 --> 00:35:36,530 Speaker 1: Dilley and Marilyn Rust. The sound design and original music 488 00:35:36,730 --> 00:35:41,850 Speaker 1: are the work of Pascal Wise. Julia Barton edited the scripts. 489 00:35:41,890 --> 00:35:45,690 Speaker 1: Starring in this series of Cautionary Tales are Helena Bonon, 490 00:35:45,770 --> 00:35:52,730 Speaker 1: Carter and Jeffrey Wright, alongside Nazar Alderazzi, Ed Gochen, Melanie Gutteridge, 491 00:35:53,250 --> 00:35:59,250 Speaker 1: Rachel Hanshaw, cobnor Holbrook, Smith, Reg Lockett, Missia Munroe, and 492 00:35:59,370 --> 00:36:02,930 Speaker 1: Rufus Wright. The show would not have been possible without 493 00:36:02,930 --> 00:36:07,930 Speaker 1: the work of Mia LaBelle, Jacob Weissberg, hell Faine, John Schnarz, 494 00:36:08,490 --> 00:36:14,690 Speaker 1: Carlie mc loori, Eric Sandler, Emily Rostock, Maggie Taylor, Daniellow Lakhan, 495 00:36:15,050 --> 00:36:20,170 Speaker 1: and Maya Canning. Cautionary Tales is a production of Pushkin Industries. 496 00:36:20,530 --> 00:36:23,530 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please remember to share, rate, 497 00:36:23,930 --> 00:36:24,610 Speaker 1: and review.